A Trip to Reasonable

by Lowetide

One year ago at this time, I projected the Oilers to score 215 goals in 2018-19. They scored 229. I projected the top two lines to score 131 goals, the top two lines scored 162 goals. I projected the top four defensemen to score 16 goals, they delivered 23 goals. What’s the problem? Every other damned thing.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
  • New Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
  • Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.

RE 2018-19

I wrote a final RE at The Athletic last summer, but even before the draft I was projecting the 2018-19 team and how the lines and pairings might look. Here’s how I projected things last June, compared to how things worked out, line by line:

Line 1 Lowetide Proj 2018-19: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [25]—Connor McDavid [40]—Ty Rattie [12]; Line 1 Actual: Leon Draisaitl [50] —Connor McDavid [41]—Zack Kassian [15]. The No. 1 line outscored my projections 106 goals to 77. No matter what, the Leon-McDavid duo is an offensive monster. They need to outscore though, this trio posted just 23-19 in 284 minutes in 2018-19. I like Kassian, believe he can play there, but Holland should be looking for an upgrade.

Line 2 Lowetide Proj 2018-19: Milan Lucic [15]—Leon Draisaitl [27]—Drake Caggiula [12]; Line 2 Actual: Milan Lucic [6] —Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [28]—Alex Chiasson [22]. I projected 54 goals, the second line delivered 56. Of course these men played with other players but as a trio (just 95 minutes) they were outscored 2-4. Chiasson did reasonably well with Leon-McDavid, scoring 14-10 as a line in 247 minutes. Nuge had very little consistency in terms of linemates through the year.

Line 3 Lowetide Projection 2018-19: Jujhar Khaira [8]—Ryan Strome [15]—Jesse Puljujarvi [16]; Line 3 Actual: Jujhar Khaira [3]—Kyle Brodziak [6]—Sam Gagner [5]. I’m cobbling together leftovers now, it’s like a Sunday morning trip to the fridge for food when the car won’t get me to town. I projected 39 goals, this group provided 14. Gack! I do like Khaira and Gagner as bottom six options but my goodness trading Strome was a bad idea. They need a two-way center badly for this line. I think that’s a key area this summer.

Line 4 Lowetide Projection 2018-19: Pontus Aberg [7]— Brad Malone [3]— Zack Kassian [8]; Line 4 Actual: Ty Rattie [4]— Colby Cave [2]— Jesse Puljujarvi [4]. I projected 18 goals, the fourth line delivered 10. That isn’t awful, but the real story here is the extreme lack of depth on this roster.

No. 1 Pairing, Lowetide Projection for 2018-19: Oscar Klefbom [8] — Adam Larsson [2] ; Top Pairing Actual: Oscar Klefbom [5]—Adam Larsson [3]. I think there’s a chance one of these players gets sent out this summer, I’d hold back the water and retain the talented Swedes and their contracts. Perhaps the time will come to deal one of them, it isn’t now.

No. 2 Pairing, Lowetide Projection for 2018-19: Andrej Sekera [4]—Kris Russell [2]; Second Pairing Actual: Darnell Nurse [10] Kris Russell [3]. I projected six, the pairing delivered 13. Nurse went 9-22-31 at even strength and his 10 goals we better than all but five roster forwards.

No. 3 Pairing, Lowetide Projection for 2018-19: Darnell Nurse [5] — Matt Benning [6]; Third Pairing Actual: Andrej Sekera [0] Matt Benning [5]. I projected 11, third pairing delivered five but that’s because Sekera was hurt. I’m a fan of Benning, don’t know if he’ll return. He has some quiet offense, Oilers will miss it.

Holland needs wingers and he needs a No. 3 center, plus the goalie. We haven’t looked yet, not fully, so here are the free agents and then the trade pieces.

FREE AGENTS

1 Goalie Robin Lehner. What a season! He’ll cost way too much, and who the hell knows if he could recreate the magic, but for just money he could be the best buy on the market.

2 Brian Elliott. He makes a lot of sense and I think he’ll be affordable. I could list other goalies but these two make sense.

3 R Brett Connolly. I’m not sure what the asking price will be, but Connolly would make a fine winger for the Nuge line and could move up as required.

4 R Joonas Donskoi. Speedy and skilled, he can play either wing and shouldn’t cost the moon. I expect SJS will sign him but Donskoi would be a fine addition.

5 L Patrick Maroon. He’ll cost too much and he’s not fast enough, but he’s proven with 97 and I think that may have value for Holland.

6 L Michael Ferland. He’s a Chiarelli type but Holland likes aggressive, rugged wingers who can score, too. I think he might be a target.

7 L Brandon Tanev. I like his two-way play and he might be a bargain (should be available later day one or day two).

8 L Tyler Ennis. He’s going to be sought after and maybe Toronto signs him before July 1, but he’s an ideal option for Edmonton.

9 R Alex Chiasson. He’s an attractive player for the Oilers, depending on price. I’m fine with him as an addition but would like a more certain scorer.

10 LC Oscar Linbderg. He can play center or wing, has enough skill to project onto the third line, maybe higher in a pinch. Not famous, which is good.

11 L Brandon Pirri. Similar to Ennis, I don’t think he makes it to free agency while also believing he’s a terrific fit for the Oilers.

TRADE TARGETS

1 RD Jacob Trouba. The ultimate this summer, Edmonton can’t get it done and he isn’t going to sign with them long term.

2 L Jason Zucker. He must feel like yesterday’s papers by now, but Zucker has real value. He would be a solid acquisition.

3 RC Jack Roslovic. Yes! What a fantastic turn of events for some team. Roslovic would be a Godsend.

4 R Connor Brown. I think there’s a good chance he’s an Oiler by September.

5 RD Colin Miller. Puck moving defender fits a need, although he’s coming off a mediocre season.

6 RC Jean-Gabriel Pageau. An ideal fit for the No. 3 center slot, hopefully he’s a major target.

7 L Andreas Johnsson. Push comes to shove, I think Toronto chooses this player to trade (if necessary). Johnsson is a splendid option.

8 L Aleksi Saarela. If the Oilers are trading Jesse Puljujarvi to Carolina, it behooves Holland to acquire a promising offensive player. Saarela is such a player.

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Dee Dee

First time I went to Japan I knew I was in the right place when the beverage cart lady came to our seat 5 minutes after leaving the Narita airport, and the tall cans of Sapporo were cheaper than buying a coffee!

The local Businessmen sitting across from us packed away 4 of them during the hour and 20 minutes, it was impressive. This was at 8AM mind you and they had to work all day.

OriginalPouzar

Olivier Rodrigue has been traded to the Moncton Wildcats!

He’s also been attending Team Canada’s summer goaltending camp – that was a no-brainer, he’ll be at all of the camps as he’s a legit candidate for the World Junior team.

OriginalPouzar

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:
OriginalPouzar,

OP just out of interest did you fly into Narita, Haneda or other?

I’ve done Narita twice and Haneda this time and man Haneda it was awesome! It was also a direct flight from Toronto, long but Haneda is also much closer to central Tokyo.

We flew in to Narita.

Yup, a bit of a trek from central Tokyo but the Airport Express, with our JR pass, led to an easy journey.

We were direct to Narita from Calgary – yes Air Canada has a direct flight from Calgary. Flight was long but we’ve done longer (a few 13 hour journeys in our time) and, not to be too pretencious, business class makes all the difference in the world (in particular on our way home when, after 7 hours of extended delays, our flight home was cancelled – they took good care of us).

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

OriginalPouzar,

OP just out of interest did you fly into Narita, Haneda or other?

I’ve done Narita twice and Haneda this time and man Haneda it was awesome! It was also a direct flight from Toronto, long but Haneda is also much closer to central Tokyo.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Scungilli Slushy: Oilers hockey has a very different face now.

We won`t know what that looks like until player things start happening.

We do know the coach is actually liked by players. That MacT and Sutter are out after years of failing, and that people that have done well like Kretzy and Woodcroft (who actually stayed) are there.

The last thing to die is hope.

Scungilli Slushy

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: You’re right … I almost forgot we are talking Oilers hockey. Better pencil a few more Brodziaks and a Jokinen or two into the projected lineup.

Oilers hockey has a very different face now.

We won`t know what that looks like until player things start happening.

We do know the coach is actually liked by players. That MacT and Sutter are out after years of failing, and that people that have done well like Kretzy and Woodcroft (who actually stayed) are there.

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

OriginalPouzar,

Absolute truth! As an aside – not sure if you are a dog lover – but my now favorite move is Isle of Dogs. It captures the Japanese ambiance perfectly and is so entertaining. Won’t even mention “Lost in Translation”!

My first trip to Tokyo years ago included a stay at the Tokyo Park Hyatt – just because of that movie and it was amazing. Sadly too expensive this time around as I needed to have two rooms!

Respecto!

russ99

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Faulk’s NMC kicked in last summer.

Doubt he waives to come here.

OriginalPouzar

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: OP – here with wife and adult son, me for a meeting in Kyoto, them for sightseeing. Though to be clear, my meeting was shall I say, “poorly attended”! Certainly by me at least.

I agree Kyoto as a city to explore is super fun and interesting at my adult age. We walked over 20k steps per day and using a combination of subway, bus and good old legs managed to see the major highlights in 4 days. We were 2 days in Tokyo on arrival then 2 days back at the end of the trip and are heading home today/tomorrow. The time zones do mess with your head!

On a hunt for a nice kimono for my wife we ran into a Milwaukee Bucks fan and managed to grind his gears a bit – also amazingly fun! Turns out he’s now cheering for the Raptors.

We had watched an episode of Parts Unknown with Anthony Bourdain on Tokyo a couple months ago and we were able to get a reservation at Yasuda Sushi Bar. An unbelievable experience at which I believe I did poor old Anthony justice by going full Bourdain on whatever chef Yasuda suggested. I would most strongly recommend this if you ever get a chance. Such amazing sushi served by the chef himself at a tiny little counter with ongoing commentary through every piece. I am now utterly and completely spoiled for sushi in Canada! Watching his knife skills, deft preparation and then having astronomically good sushi was fantastic!

But you are so right – everything about this place is amazing! The civility, cleanliness, kindness of people is astounding. This logistics of travel around the country via Shinkansen and in cities via subway is otherworldly! The food and sheer number of places to eat is incredible. I love this place and am hoping I get another reason to visit again. (Our youngest daughter is dating an Olympic hopeful cyclist – so if he makes the Canadian team we are all in on a return visit next August. You’d better believe we are pushing him hard in his training!!)

Also I would like to thank you for your thoughtful and interesting comments here – I thoroughly enjoy them. And LT,your indulgence in this non-hockey aside is most appreciated.

That is fantastic and thank you for your post.

While he had more time than you (2 full weeks), many of your experiences line up exactly with our – I could have written much of your post.

With respect to the sushi, i had essentially the exact same experience as Sushi Mastuda – 6 person bar and the sushi master was memorizing.

I will never get over the logistics of their transportation, both local and between municipalities – I’ve never seen such precision in my life – a logistical marvel. Don’t get me started on the train stations – marvels – just wild places to walk through.

Tokyo is the cleanest city i could possibly imagine – no garbage cans and, in 5 days there, I saw one piece of garbage – unreal.

The rules, my goodness the rules, I’ve never witnessed a culture that follows every single rule without exception – I saw one local cross against a light in 2 full weeks.

I love that country!

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

OriginalPouzar: I did not.

Nor did I, alas. I should have but I wasn’t sure he was still here.

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

OriginalPouzar: Visiting? Living?Business?

I was there (pleasure) in April – while Kyoto was my preference over Tokyo, that entire country is just off the charts amazing.The beauty, the culture, the food, logistics, the everything.

Jealous!

OP – here with wife and adult son, me for a meeting in Kyoto, them for sightseeing. Though to be clear, my meeting was shall I say, “poorly attended”! Certainly by me at least.

I agree Kyoto as a city to explore is super fun and interesting at my adult age. We walked over 20k steps per day and using a combination of subway, bus and good old legs managed to see the major highlights in 4 days. We were 2 days in Tokyo on arrival then 2 days back at the end of the trip and are heading home today/tomorrow. The time zones do mess with your head!

On a hunt for a nice kimono for my wife we ran into a Milwaukee Bucks fan and managed to grind his gears a bit – also amazingly fun! Turns out he’s now cheering for the Raptors.

We had watched an episode of Parts Unknown with Anthony Bourdain on Tokyo a couple months ago and we were able to get a reservation at Yasuda Sushi Bar. An unbelievable experience at which I believe I did poor old Anthony justice by going full Bourdain on whatever chef Yasuda suggested. I would most strongly recommend this if you ever get a chance. Such amazing sushi served by the chef himself at a tiny little counter with ongoing commentary through every piece. I am now utterly and completely spoiled for sushi in Canada! Watching his knife skills, deft preparation and then having astronomically good sushi was fantastic!

But you are so right – everything about this place is amazing! The civility, cleanliness, kindness of people is astounding. This logistics of travel around the country via Shinkansen and in cities via subway is otherworldly! The food and sheer number of places to eat is incredible. I love this place and am hoping I get another reason to visit again. (Our youngest daughter is dating an Olympic hopeful cyclist – so if he makes the Canadian team we are all in on a return visit next August. You’d better believe we are pushing him hard in his training!!)

Also I would like to thank you for your thoughtful and interesting comments here – I thoroughly enjoy them. And LT, your indulgence in this non-hockey aside is most appreciated.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Agreed. I would staple him on the 3rd line and 2nd PP unit and try to get him 15 minutes a night. As I mentioned earlier, I doubt this team makes the playoffs so you might as well find out if you have a player there or not. No better time than now.

– I agree. I hope they make the playoffs next year but I want them to win the war. Hallamd needs some time to figure out what he’s got not trade them away based on feedback from the remaining losers who are still in day to day operations. By the way hollly has removed some of the deadweight in management but Keith alone is not enough. – when does Holland bring in people who have different perspective and are gets to compete with Keith as the GM in waiting?

Jar-Nuge-Pool

– untill the trade deadline: make it so.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar: and, if that’s the case, keep the player, find a spot for him in the top 9 with some skill, give him consistent minutes, no less than 12 5 on 5 per night, with consistent linemates and run him out there night in and night out and shift after shift – allow him to get comfortable, to make plays and to make mistakes.Let him “play”.Let him have fun. Watch him flourish.

Agreed. I would staple him on the 3rd line and 2nd PP unit and try to get him 15 minutes a night. As I mentioned earlier, I doubt this team makes the playoffs so you might as well find out if you have a player there or not. No better time than now.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Scungilli Slushy:
For those projecting line ups, the chances of seeing 2 inexperienced players on the same line are probably around0.00%

You’re right … I almost forgot we are talking Oilers hockey. Better pencil a few more Brodziaks and a Jokinen or two into the projected lineup.

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

– did you or OP reach out to nyc oil aka gentlemen backpacker while in japan?

– I miss him here.

I did not.

OriginalPouzar

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Sad but true. You may get lucky and coax a mid to late 2nd out of someone, but I would not count on it.

and, if that’s the case, keep the player, find a spot for him in the top 9 with some skill, give him consistent minutes, no less than 12 5 on 5 per night, with consistent linemates and run him out there night in and night out and shift after shift – allow him to get comfortable, to make plays and to make mistakes. Let him “play”. Let him have fun. Watch him flourish.

OriginalPouzar

Ben:
Some more savoury scuttlebutt around Lucic for Eriksson out there today.

If it’s straight across, no-brainer for the Oilers, based on the year-shorter contract alone.

Beside that, Eriksson did score 30 points last year to Looch’s 20, and while they don’t show their work, this writer suggests that: “In fact, his penalty kill advanced stats suggest he’s one of the best penalty killers in the entire NHL.”

https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/jim-benning-expected-loui-eriksson-to-be-a-consistent-20-goal-scorer-1.23660256

I didn’t click the link but i did look in to some of his PK metrics last week and his GA/60 was sparkling. At the same time, he only killed just over a minute per game so, if he was that proficient, presumably the coach would have him on the top pairing.

Glovjuice

Professor Q: A lot of people are talking about it, but mostly how it makes Panarin look like he should get $11.5-12 million per season (which I don’t agree with).

And they just traded Ryan Oreilly. Crazy stuff.

Rondo

Possible players I would pick at # 8.

Dach
Krebs
Podkolzin
Boldy

Munny

godot10: One can offer sheet Puljujarvi between $1.4 and $2.9 million for a 2020 third round draft pick,

That sets his trade value.

It doesn’t set his trade value to cap-strung teams.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

– did you or OP reach out to nyc oil aka gentlemen backpacker while in japan?

– I miss him here.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Reja,

– Eriksson is for a spent force and out of hockey as a 35 year old (so in one year), if he isn’t already done. He does have 1 less year but he’s almost 4 years older

– I get why we might do the trade but Lucic has some chance of some recover IMO and is a more valuable tradeable name.

– this trade does not make the team better next year and you really risk 3 years of 6mm for a guy who is done vs Lucic who is paid the same but is younger has more cache

– Anyway make the trade to get rid of Lucic change of scenery etc but the team isn’t better.

OriginalPouzar

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: This made me actually seriously laugh right out loud. And that was awkward because I’m in Tokyo right now and it was a bit early for a sudden laughter outburst in the dark!

What a fantastic comment – thank you for that sir!

Visiting? Living? Business?

I was there (pleasure) in April – while Kyoto was my preference over Tokyo, that entire country is just off the charts amazing. The beauty, the culture, the food, logistics, the everything.

Jealous!

OriginalPouzar

Woogie63:
Russell and Lagesson for Miles Wood
Ferland 4x$4.6M
Mrazek 3x$2.5M
Khaira 2x$.959
JP 2x$1.5M

Wood-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Draisaitl-Ferland
Nygard-Hopkins-JP
Lucic-Khaira-Marody
Gambardella-Gagner

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Sekera
Jones-Benning
Persson

Koskinen
Mrazek

1. Wingers better
2. Speed of the first line will create lots
3. Three good lines
4. JP gets a Center and a role on the team
5. 1A/1B goalie
6. Lots of help when injuries come
7. On the conveyor belt – Benson, Marody, Gambardella, Jones
8. On the farm- Bear, Bouchard, Samarukov, Yamamoto, McLeod, Scarlett, Skinner
9. Team speed up
10. Lucic, Kassian , Khaira, Ferland, Nurse makes us more than tough enough

I generally like the moves and, as much as I like Lagesson, yes, that is a move that I would have to say yes to – I would try and get them to take Bear though.

I personally don’t want Ferland (and think he may be looking for more than $5M) – just don’t like his game.

Mrazek would be great – I think he will get a higher AAV though.

Its tough to say “three good lines” as we just don’t know – all three have massive question marks:

– McDavid is flanked by two wingers that are both unproven in the top 6 – niether have scored 20 goals or more than 35 points (the right winger never close to either).

– The second line has a raw rookie that, while very talented, may be best suited to a middle six role, at least to start. The right winger is wildly inconsistent.

– I really like the third line but massive risk with Nygard really being a complete unknown and Jesse potentially spinning his tires again.

I do like it as I’m on board with some “bets” this year in order to allow for some term to run off contracts (as opposed to bigger moves with risk and commitment to term for older players).

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I have no clue but what if we got rid of Benning and russel for a brown and whatever russell fetches and you give that plus say Persson for 1 year of Faulk?

So:

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Faulk
Sek-Jones

– we’d certainly score more goals. But ricki box? Carolina isn’t going to resign Faulk

– Or maybe even at trade deadline you do something to get him and then your breaking 1 D this year and 1 next year?

– I wonder how much Holland does this year to improve and shed vs next off-season as Lucic Russell gagner and buyouts fall off and are much easier to deal with and you have $20mm + for 2020

Andy Dufresne

T Minus 13 and counting to 2019 NHL Entry Draft .

We are entering the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” part of the Hype Cycle

The Gartner Group Hype Cycle* has 5 Levels grahpically respresented as

Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity

With McDavid we went straight from Trigger to Plateau of Productivity.
With JP we went straight from Peak of Inflated Expectations to Trough of Disallusionment
With recent good drafting, we’ve now got at least 4 or 5 prospects on The Slope of Enlightenment.

Where will this years first rounder take us?

*The hype cycle is a branded graphical presentation developed and used by the American research, advisory and information technology firm Gartner to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies. The hype cycle provides a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Colin Miller is Matt Benning at twice the cost and twice the duration.That is not an upgrade.Miller in and Benning out is a downgrade.

I think he’s got a bit more offence than Benning has but, yes, I agree generally – he has shown to be a third pairing guy at even on Vegas – playing behind Derek Engelland.

He has some name cache for some reason and I was on board due to such cache until I dug in to him a bit (after someone here, and it may have been you Godot, provided that actual info on his deployment and abilities).

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Andy Dufresne: Arigatou Neighbour!You’ve lifted my spirits!

When you post something that attempts to, in some small way,“entertain” all it takes is one person to get it, to make it worthwhile. And when they are half way around the world (in the middle of the night) well….thats just freakin awesome.

You are more than welcome! I don’t post much and during the past couple seasons, for reasons of mental health I tend to not visit the site during the season but when I do visit I really appreciate when you or others take the time to write something interesting, fun and humorous.

Without humor surviving the Oilers would be a monumental task! So Dōmo arigatōgozaimashita and Dōitashimashite!

Andy Dufresne

Lowetide: Estimates have him at $3.6 million, that’s dear.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit#gid=707766415

I really appreciate the work this guy does to compile the spreadsheet each year. Its a great reference point for spitballing future roster construction.

Having said that , If Eberle gets 7 x $6m , Maroon 3 x $3.6m , and Chaisson 3 x $3.2m then we’ve got a lot more value contracts on our roster than I realized.

Its really pretty incredible how much salaries rise with each passing year.

v4ance

pts2pndr: Right and you would buy a three legged race horse when there are plenty of sound horses for the same price. The difference between stud and dud is very small. Late second round is where he is likely to go.

Right,

partial achilles tear= three legged horse

It’s not like 1960 where an achilles tear was career threatening. Your analogy makes it seem like Krebs had his foot ripped off.

Funny thing is I have no skin in this game. I couldn’t pick out Krebs from Bouldy, Kakko or Hughes in a lineup. I don’t post much here because I’m too busy to fight the stupid. I have more than enough stupid to deal with at work.

Scungilli Slushy

For those projecting line ups, the chances of seeing 2 inexperienced players on the same line are probably around 0.00%

Reja

Ben:
Some more savoury scuttlebutt around Lucic for Eriksson out there today.

If it’s straight across, no-brainer for the Oilers, based on the year-shorter contract alone.

Beside that, Eriksson did score 30 points last year to Looch’s 20, and while they don’t show their work, this writer suggests that: “In fact, his penalty kill advanced stats suggest he’s one of the best penalty killers in the entire NHL.”

https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/jim-benning-expected-loui-eriksson-to-be-a-consistent-20-goal-scorer-1.23660256

Also, he doesn’t have Lucic’s movement restrictions.

I do wonder about possibly doing Lucic and JP for Sutter instead, particularly if nothing is retained.

I think this trade has legs with what Lucic said earlier they definitely need muscle and a revived Milan in his hometown could cover the bet for the next 4 years.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

godot10: One can offer sheet Puljujarvi between $1.4 and $2.9 million for a 2020 third round draft pick,

That sets his trade value.

Sad but true. You may get lucky and coax a mid to late 2nd out of someone, but I would not count on it.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Woogie63:
Russell and Lagesson for Miles Wood
Ferland 4x$4.6M
Mrazek 3x$2.5M
Khaira 2x$.959
JP 2x$1.5M

Wood-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Draisaitl-Ferland
Nygard-Hopkins-JP
Lucic-Khaira-Marody
Gambardella-Gagner

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Sekera
Jones-Benning
Persson

Koskinen
Mrazek

1. Wingers better
2. Speed of the first line will create lots
3. Three good lines
4. JP gets a Center and a role on the team
5. 1A/1B goalie
6. Lots of help when injuries come
7. On the conveyor belt – Benson, Marody, Gambardella, Jones
8. On the farm- Bear, Bouchard, Samarukov, Yamamoto, McLeod, Scarlett, Skinner
9. Team speed up
10. Lucic, Kassian , Khaira, Ferland, Nurse makes us more than tough enough

I like it … only change I would make is swapping Joe G for Milan. I know that makes 4 rookies but we aren’t going to make the playoffs with the current team and deployments this year anyway.

Andy Dufresne

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: This made me actually seriously laugh right out loud. And that was awkward because I’m in Tokyo right now and it was a bit early for a sudden laughter outburst in the dark!

What a fantastic comment – thank you for that sir!

Arigatou Neighbour! You’ve lifted my spirits!

When you post something that attempts to, in some small way, “entertain” all it takes is one person to get it, to make it worthwhile. And when they are half way around the world (in the middle of the night) well….thats just freakin awesome.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Bummer.Guess I am really stuck hoping Cozens slides now.Teams with multiple picks like Colorado and New York at 16OV and 20OV are probably the worst case scenarios for Krebs now.

One would think, Krebs doctor’s would/should provide an update to interested teams before the draft.

I’m already pissed enough at Dorion for giving the Avs their pick (thank goodness they dropped 3 spots) but, if they scoop a top 8 player at 16 in addition to who they get at 4……

Ben

Some more savoury scuttlebutt around Lucic for Eriksson out there today.

If it’s straight across, no-brainer for the Oilers, based on the year-shorter contract alone.

Beside that, Eriksson did score 30 points last year to Looch’s 20, and while they don’t show their work, this writer suggests that: “In fact, his penalty kill advanced stats suggest he’s one of the best penalty killers in the entire NHL.”

https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/jim-benning-expected-loui-eriksson-to-be-a-consistent-20-goal-scorer-1.23660256

Also, he doesn’t have Lucic’s movement restrictions.

I do wonder about possibly doing Lucic and JP for Sutter instead, particularly if nothing is retained.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: I think you are catastrophizing this a bit.

This is a freak injury (as opposed to something that would recur or be chronic, like Benson) for which NHL players generally make full recoveries from and he should be back fairly early in the year.

He doesn’t really lose a year of development but a summer of training (and, lets be honest, the junior kids don’t really train properly anyways – not until the NHL teams get their hands on them).

Did the young lad go under the knife you just never know when that happens.

OriginalPouzar

Rube Foster,

Fairly confident the Caps won’t qualify Burakovsky or work out a deal with him for less than his QO prior to late June?

godot10

tileguy: I wonder if JP could get you that 20th pick?

One can offer sheet Puljujarvi between $1.4 and $2.9 million for a 2020 third round draft pick,

That sets his trade value.

OriginalPouzar

McNuge93: I would say no. The other factor is it delays his development by a year (like Benson) and thus delays his timeline to impact your NHL team by a year. That’s got to cost something. He’s likely to drop 15 to 20 spots.

I think you are catastrophizing this a bit.

This is a freak injury (as opposed to something that would recur or be chronic, like Benson) for which NHL players generally make full recoveries from and he should be back fairly early in the year.

He doesn’t really lose a year of development but a summer of training (and, lets be honest, the junior kids don’t really train properly anyways – not until the NHL teams get their hands on them).

Reja

The Orange Crush jerseys have never jived with the city of Edmonton please go back to the original colours and Stanley will come out of hiding.

pts2pndr

v4ance: Short sighted thinking at it’s best.You’re not drafting him for this one injured off season, you’re picking him as a top 6 forward who should give you at least 6 years of quality production.

Right and you would buy a three legged race horse when there are plenty of sound horses for the same price. The difference between stud and dud is very small. Late second round is where he is likely to go.

OriginalPouzar

Psyche:
It doesn’t feel like a great off-season to be a buyer. Plenty of teams ahead of the Oilers in terms of cap space. Combine this with a limited UFA pool and there’s bound to be some gaudy contracts.

Let’s hope Mr. Holland can avoid the 30+ crowd. I have no idea why GM’s overvalue their experience and old legs in this day and age.

I worry about a Nyquist contract with term – I like the player, i don’t like his age.

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

Andy Dufresne:
Robin Lehner was crap in Buffalo. Islanders were one of the worst teams for goals against in the league.

Potentially lethally bad scenario to have such a terrible goalie playing on such a defensively poor team.

What happened? Hmm lets see. What changed. Hmmm, can’t put my finger on it….Hmmm….OH YEAH! Barry “f#cking” Trotz, Thats what happened!!!

Cant wait to see what effect Dave Tippet has on team defense, overall goal suppression and hence better goalering.

Prediciton: Koskinen looks amazing by Christmas. He’ll somehow “magically” find his game.

If goalies are voodoo, Head Coaches are the Voodoo Priests.

#youdothatvoodoothatyoudosowell
#dembones

Dem Bones Dem Bones Dem Chicken Bones…..

And the Goals Against connected to the Team D
And the Team Dconnected to the Shot Suppression
And the Shot Suppression connected to the Ricki D
And the Ricki D connected to the Trophy…..
(….Vezina that is……)
And the One trophy connected to that Other Trophy
(…Stanley that is….)

This made me actually seriously laugh right out loud. And that was awkward because I’m in Tokyo right now and it was a bit early for a sudden laughter outburst in the dark!

What a fantastic comment – thank you for that sir!

Andy Dufresne

silasbengtsson:
Andy Dufresne,

A couple of Lehner’s underlying numbers over the past few years actually have him ranked pretty consistently in the top-10 (almost top-5 iirc) among goalies. Buffalo was just so bad that even the best goalie wouldn’t have saved them.

I’m sure coaching has something to do with it but we’d be unwise to pretend Lehner was just some shit goalie with no ability through his time with Buffalo.

I get what you are syaing.

The part about Lehner being shit/terrible was an attempt to use sarcasm to make a point.

What I meant was the opposite of what I actually stated. Lehner is a good to very good goalie. Playing on Buffalo made him look like shit (relatively speaking) He then moved to a team who had THE WORST goals against in the league.

But under Barry Trotz, SHIZAAM, he’s suddenly a Vezina candidate. It happens on occasion. Are there other mitigating circumstances ( mental health, etc )? Yes there are.

Just pointing out that we can be pretty quick to shit on goalies who under-perform for a variety of reasons. IMO team defense and Coaching are two of the primary reasons why goalies are what they are, or arent as the case goes.

Mike Smith was shit in Tampa with a save percentage at or below .900 for 3 of his 4 years there. He gets dumped/traded to Pheonix where he immediately posts a .930 save percentage playing in 67 games that season.playing for …..guess who……….Dave Tippett.

I too advocate getting a solid backup /1B type goalie in the offseason. The position is just too important to ignore. But Im also fairly optimistic that under Tippett, the team will play better defensively, and Koskinen with his first year under his belt, acclimatized to North America, hopefully starting 55 games or less (with an compentent / above average backup) will play better / more consistent than last year.

A healthy defense and an aquisition or two that adds balance to the forward roster and the PK would also be contributing factors.

Hence, Im peredicting a very good year for Koskinen in 2019-20. Doubling down so to speak.

People will be raving about his play and how good that contract looks, and the voodoo that is goalering. 🙂

Walter Gretzkys Neighbour

dustrock,

I absolutely totally completely and in all other ways agree with this! Those orange jerseys are as bad as the old weird stripey Canuck jerseys of yore!

Dump that crap now, go back to the darker blue, silver and orange accents. This team not only needs to play more aggressively (no I don’t mean fights!) but they need to look the part. Those orange jerseys are a visual offense! I wonder if they don’t actually feel stupid wearing them.

Plus, you know a functioning goalie, better defense, secondary scoring and will someone for the love of all things hockey take the line blender away from the coaches.

Also please fire Kevin Lowe, yesterday and make I’m go to Russia with MacT.

tileguy

Pouzar:
If Krebs drops 10 or more spots you move heaven and earth to trade into that spot and grab the kid and call it a day. Could be our Getzlaf/Perry *spits* draft.

I wonder if JP could get you that 20th pick?

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: That is the depth chart, yes – although we don’t know if the org has plans for Jones on the left side or the right side – he has played almost exclusively the right side at the pro level for two years.

Sekera and Russell are both there but, as we know, within 2 years max, they will both be gone.

Yes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling that Lagesson (and Jones) – I think he has a higher ceiling that Bouchard and has 1LD potential.Of course, the chances of him meeting that high ceiling are fairly low.I do think he will be an NHL player but, as of now, he is a prospect coming out of junior with great arrows.We really have no idea when (and if) he’ll arrive.Higher potential, yes, but, at this point, I would almost say that Lagesson is more of a “lock” for an NHL career because, personally, I think he’s as NHL ready as Jones.

I don’t know if I agree that Jones has a higher ceiling than Lagesson.I likely over-rate Willie but I think most undervalue his potential. He is a vastly different player than Jones but, at the same time, potentially just as valuable. He isn’t the Jason Smith or even Adam Larsson defensive defender.He is the “new age” defensive defender – in addition to his great defence with aggression and tenacity, he is also a good skater and good puck mover with offensive instincts.

I think he has potential to be a plus 2LD for years – not necessarily putting up 40 points but he’s not a black hole offensively and, in time, I think he can eat 22 minutes a game (like Larsson but with better skating, offensive IQ and transition).

I am a Lagesson fan. Unlike Jones he has size and can actually play defence. Jones in my opinion sill has a way to go on his one on one defence. Too often he is merely a turnstile.

Reja

SkatinginSand: A goalie going to his knees too early and staying on them too long is very often a sign of a loss of confidence.

I believe it’s more a style of play watch footage of Kosh Talbot and even Brossoit with Oilers and then KHL Jets and NY all three are not on their knees early and often it is a style of play being coached.