Personal Opinion

I rarely do these, but we’re on the edge of a new reality and wanted to post my notes as both a chronicle of thoughts and perhaps the start of a conversation. I will tell you that Ken Holland is acting like a mature manager but we don’t really know one damned thing. We can mutter amongst ourselves and project greatness from this day forward, but if Holland backward travels with the roster he currently owns this could be more than a mountain.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • New Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
  • New Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
  • Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.

PERSONAL OPINION

One of Ken Holland’s first words about the roster upon arrival pertained to getting another goalie, a 1A type to play with Koskinen. That’s the play here, I’ve named Brian Elliott and it’s certain some concur and others have their own preferences. Get a solid NHL goalie for under $3 million.

On defense, I wouldn’t trade any of Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson or Darnell Nurse. I’ll go you one farther, I’d run Matt Benning as 2RHD at least early in the season. A third pair of Andrej Sekera and Joel Persson or Caleb Jones might flourish.

I’d stay away from short term 2RHD solutions. You have to assume Evan Bouchard is going to be good for an NHL role some time this coming season, and perhaps second pair by 2020 fall. No reason to spend heavily.

I also think there’s going to need to be some kind of cull in the next eight months among the blue. I would move Kris Russell, but would also consider moving William Lagesson or Ethan Bear at the deadline if Benning, Jones/Persson and Bouchard are working. Oilers finally have some depth, but this time next year Jones, Bear and Lagesson will be coming up on waiver eligibility.

Nurse offers a challenge for sure, his next contract is out there waiting and it won’t resemble Klefbom’s or Larsson’s. I know there’s a lot of voices saying trade the guy, but I don’t see the point until another defenseman steps up and proves he can play 23:59 (Klefbom), 23:49 (Nurse) and 21:37 (Larsson). Seeing Russell’s 20:26 walk is enough for one summer.

PERSONAL OPINION: EVAN BOUCHARD

One final note on defense: Evan Bouchard. You know, he only had 71 minutes at 5-on-5 for the Oilers before being sent out, but his possession numbers (Corsi and Corsi Rel) were positive (Rel: 8.67 via Natural Stat Trick and DFF Red: 3.40 via Puck IQ). Tyler Dellow’s excellent article (here) is one of several I’ve read on the subject that basically say (quoting Dellow now) “you can start to pull guys apart from a fairly young age and that a lot of guys who’d be regarded as the cream of the crop seemed to rise to the top from a fairly young age.” So, don’t trade for a 2RHD when you might have one coming through the system.

I don’t know much about him beyond he’s a puck mover who can skate, NHLE is 25. Elite Prospects says “great skating ability and passing skills. Has great vision and a good shot. Excels on the powerplay, but could use more physical strength.” He’s a Finn playing in Sweden, he could be something or he could be something else. No idea if the Oilers will sign him but this is interesting radar. Profile is here.

MORE PERSONAL OPINION

Building up the middle is an important piece of team building. The Oilers are flat out loaded at center. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins represent a dream team of pivots, and one sweet day they’ll have six wingers who can keep up. Until then, I think the GM will need to have five centers on the roster for the moments (games, months, years) when the coach decides to run 97 and 29 together.

That means going out and acquiring a No. 3-4 center, and I think Jean-Gabriel Pageau would be ideal. The No. 4 slot might land with Colby Cave, Kyle Brodziak or even Cooper Marody, but Pageau can slide into the No. 3 center role and deliver. That’s an important addition this summer, far more important than a bridge to Bouchard on defense.

Left wing is going to have Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Joakim Nygard and Jujhar Khaira (is my guess) this coming season. I’d give Tyler Benson a chance in training camp and if he forced the issue, bring him north at the end of camp. I would also try to add an inexpensive option to this group, someone like Tyler Ennis or Brandon Pirri. If everyone works out, you can move Nygard to RW, Khaira to center or Lucic to the pressbox. Holland will want depth on left wing, I think adding Ennis/Pirri is the right thing to do.

Right wing has Zack Kassian, Sam Gagner and possibly Alex Chiasson. I’m not sure about Jesse Puljujarvi, so we’re going to put him aside for the time being. I think Brett Connolly or similar is needed, not for the 97 line but for Nuge. Need an NHL player who has enough skill and ability to win the puck and pass it. I don’t think Kailor Yamamoto should be counted on, at least at the start of the year.

POTENTIAL ROSTER

This is my opinion. Is it good enough to make the playoffs? Don’t know. The team will be better on the PK, especially if the Lucic for Eriksson deal goes through. I’ve moved on several players, notably Kris Russell and Jesse Puljujarvi, imagining in my brain a bigger deal with Ottawa.

DNB INTERVIEW WITH KEN HOLLAND

All of the words above were written before 7 this morning my time. I’m not going to change a word (ordinarily I write in the evening, edit in the morning) because Daniel Nugent-Bowman dropped an amazing one-on-one with Ken Holland at The Athletic today. Link is here. An absolute monster.

Anselmi has an impressive resume, including work for MLSE and the Ottawa Senators. There was much speculation about Nicholson leaving, that should put things to rest.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re off to a rocking start to the week, with strong guests, an Oilers media avail and a championship the whole nation can get behind. 10 this morning, TSN1260.

Alex Thomas, Oilers Rig and Boston Hockey Now. We’ll chat SCF, David Ortiz and Oilers summer.

Oilers media avail at 10:30, news about Nicholson and Anselmi.

Jason Gregor at 11, we’ll review Oilers press conference, talk SCF and NBA finals.

Brian Swane, Basketball Alberta and The Basketball Show. Raptors!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

140 Responses to "Personal Opinion"

  1. ArmchairGM says:

    Thought I would repost this from the other thread this morning to continue the winger vs defenseman value debate:

    JimmyV1965: When was the last time we saw a bottom pairing dman traded for a top six forward? Honest question.

    I haven’t looked at this, but here’s an interesting one:

    Feb 28, 2017, Detroit Red Wings Acquire:

    2017 3rd round pick (NYR – #83 – Zachary Gallant)
    2018 2nd round pick (OTT – #33 – Jonatan Berggren)

    New York Rangers Acquire:

    Brendan Smith · $2,750,000

    ************************************************************************************************************

    July 2 2017, New Jersey Devils Acquire:

    Marcus Johansson · $4,583,333

    Washington Capitals Acquire:

    2018 2nd round pick (FLA – #46 – Martin Fehérváry)
    2018 3rd round pick (TOR – #87 – Linus Karlsson)

    ************************************************************************************************************

    Smith was Detroit’s 5th defenseman by TOI vs Elites (thanks puckiq) that year, Johansson was coming off a season where he posted 82, 24-34-58 +25 and was signed for 2 more seasons. Maybe there was something else going on here that I don’t remember, but that’s a 28-year-old 3rd pairing defender garnering a higher take than a 26-year-old top-6 forward.

  2. Lowetide says:

    John Shannon: The Boston Bruins have never played in G7 in a Stanley Cup Final in Boston…until 2019

    Wow

  3. ArmchairGM says:

    Also, if anyone is watching the presser right now, feel free to update us here.

  4. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Also, if anyone is watching the presser right now, feel free to update us here.

    not yet. 1030 MDT

  5. Nit64 says:

    “There was much speculation about Nicholson leaving, that should put things to rest.”

    Just a sec. Doesn’t kicking him up on a notch mean half the work of replacing him is done? Holland recently got “promoted” by Detroit. If anything this sets up nicely for the potential promotion from IIHF vice next year.

  6. Nit64 says:

    Is it too early to start the KLowe departure speculation? 😉

  7. tileguy says:

    You might be taking JP off the shelf quicker than you think if Alex Chiasson is looking for $3M+ and term. I wonder if the Oil have kcked his tires yet and know exactly what they are going to do with him. Three months ago we all agreed we would extend him in that $1.5 range, that seems like pie in the sky now.

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64: not yet. 1030 MDT

    Oopsie.

  9. Yeti says:

    Indeed, that’s a fabulous interview with Holland by Nugent-Bowman. I’m struggling to put together the reputed interest in Näkyvä with Holland’s comment that he’s got enough defensemen. Nice to see the emphasis on building slowly, through the drafts and prospects, and looking for minor moves to bring in wingers.

  10. tileguy says:

    Oilers Entertainment Group announced Bob Nicholson will assume the new role of Chairman, Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club while Tom Anselmi has been hired as President, Business Operations and Chief Operating Officer of EOHC and ICE District.
    Not sure what that means.

  11. tileguy says:

    Holland to burgers to Katz, nothing new here folks, move along.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, an absolutely ton of info on The Athletic piece by DNB on his talk with the the GM.

    I guess I shouldn’t post too much info since it just came out, don’t know protocol but I think there are some prudent things to discuss, in particular as they related to his path forward.

    With repsect to this off-season:

    – asked if he’s planning on any buyouts and he said he’s considering it but hasn’t made any decision (OP really hopes he doesn’t buy anyone out unless the penalty is somewhat nominal, like Manning).

    – asked if he could forsee a sitatuion when he traded the 1st rounder – he said he doesn’t forsee such a scenario but “but if the phone rings and something intriguing is offered I have a responsibility to answer the phone and hear them out. But there are no short-term fixes.”

    – when asked about this summer’s shopping list:

    – he needs to sign a goalie
    – not looking to add anything on defence (hoping for some better luck with injuries)
    – up front he needs to build the bottom 6
    – exploring the marketplace for wingers – “We’ve got to build up the the forwards”

    – When asked about McDavid’s health he said he’s expecting him on the ice for camp – he’s spoken with his agent, the team doctor, the athletic trainer and been kept updated and everything he’s been told is that we are on schdule.

    – On re-signing Puljujuarv – he said he doesn’t know much about him except for draft pedigree. Only had one conversation with his agent so far. He’s going to do everything he can to get him signed but “it takes two to tango.”. He’s a good young talented player and he hopes Tippett and provide some stability and that he wants to be an Oiler.

    – On potentially re-signing Nurse this offseason (a year early) – he doesn’t really know him well enough – “I’ve gotta get to know the person. Do they go to the gym? How much do they sacrifice? How committed are they to fitness? How much to they compete on an every-night basis? Those are the things I look at when I’m making assessments and determinations on contract extensions.”

  13. godot10 says:

    One of the Tampa forwards (whoever shakes loose as a cap casualty) is a far better option than Brett Connolly.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    “On defense, I wouldn’t trade any of Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson or Darnell Nurse. I’ll go you one farther, I’d run Matt Benning as 2RHD at least early in the season. A third pair of Andrej Sekera and Joel Persson or Caleb Jones might flourish.”

    I’ve changed my position about a 2RD stop gap, in conjunction with a Russell disposition, being the primary need this off-season. I think we need to try and fill this internally, yet again and keep our cap and asset currency free.

    I’m not sure if Benning will be the guy at 2RD, and I’m even OK moving him if we can get a player like Andreas Johnsson, but he is an option.

    I’m also liking the idea of trying Nurse on his off-side with Sekera – for some reason I don’t think Nurse’s game will be effected too much on his off side – could be wrong.

    Holland has stated he’s not looking to upgrade the defence this off season so we shouldn’t be anticipating any top 4 acquisition.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Nurse offers a challenge for sure, his next contract is out there waiting and it won’t resemble Klefbom’s or Larsson’s. I know there’s a lot of voices saying trade the guy, but I don’t see the point until another defenseman steps up and proves he can play 23:59 (Klefbom), 23:49 (Nurse) and 21:37 (Larsson). Seeing Russell’s 20:26 walk is enough for one summer.”

    There may definitely be a time where the organization needs to, or should, move on from Klefbom or Nurse – it may be “forced” due to a combination of cost (Nurse’s next contract) and, preferably, continued progression from the internal options (Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov).

    That time, in my opinion, is not now – it behooves the organization to ensure there is adequate cover prior to using the minute munchers as asset currency.

  16. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wow, an absolutely ton of info on The Athletic piece by DNB on his talk with the the GM.

    Also mentioned that head scout runs the draft and managers weigh in philosophically and sometimes directly. Very next breath he mentioned living 2 miles from the U.S. National Development Program.

    To me with all the zooming on that team I think that’s a positive that could assist with steering away from players as much as to them.

  17. jp says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know much about him beyond he’s a puck mover who can skate, NHLE is 25. Elite Prospects says “great skating ability and passing skills. Has great vision and a good shot. Excels on the powerplay, but could use more physical strength.” He’s a Finn playing in Sweden, he could be something or he could be something else. No idea if the Oilers will sign him but this is interesting radar. Profile is here.

    For what it’s worth, that Elite Prospects blurb was written 6 years ago, so it’s quite possible he’s added some man strength since then (is listed as 6′, 198 lbs).

    His offense might also have been suppressed by the teams he’s played on.
    17-18 Linkoping Nakyva 26Pts Team Leader 35Pts
    18-19 Orebro Nakyva 27Pts Team Leader 33Pts

    He’s much more likely something else, but interesting intel for sure.

  18. Jordan says:

    godot10:
    One of the Tampa forwards (whoever shakes loose as a cap casualty) is a far better option than Brett Connolly.

    Godot, other than following a lot of the commentary here about who might be a good pickup for the Oilers, I don’t know a lot about the “tampa forwards” you’re referencing.

    Would you please help me to understand why you believe one of or several of those forwards would be a better pickup than Connolly?

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Thought I would repost this from the other thread this morning to continue the winger vs defenseman value debate:

    I haven’t looked at this, but here’s an interesting one:

    Feb 28, 2017, Detroit Red Wings Acquire:

    2017 3rd round pick (NYR – #83 – Zachary Gallant)
    2018 2nd round pick (OTT – #33 – Jonatan Berggren)

    New York Rangers Acquire:

    Brendan Smith · $2,750,000

    ************************************************************************************************************

    July 2 2017, New Jersey Devils Acquire:

    Marcus Johansson · $4,583,333

    Washington Capitals Acquire:

    2018 2nd round pick (FLA – #46 – Martin Fehérváry)
    2018 3rd round pick (TOR – #87 – Linus Karlsson)

    ************************************************************************************************************

    Smith was Detroit’s 5th defenseman by TOI vs Elites (thanks puckiq) that year, Johansson was coming off a season where he posted 82, 24-34-58 +25 and was signed for 2 more seasons. Maybe there was something else going on here that I don’t remember, but that’s a 28-year-old 3rd pairing defender garnering a higher take than a 26-year-old top-6 forward.

    Not really. I posed the question in context of Benning being traded for JT Miller. I don’t think either of those trades are comparable, unless you think Miller would be traded for #33 and #83.

  20. godot10 says:

    Jordan: Godot, other than following a lot of the commentary here about who might be a good pickup for the Oilers, I don’t know a lot about the “tampa forwards” you’re referencing.

    Would you please help me to understand why you believe one of or several of those forwards would be a better pickup than Connolly?

    Connolly couldn’t beat most of them out of a job when he had a chance in Tampa, Most of them have better and far longer track records.

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti:
    Indeed, that’s a fabulous interview with Holland by Nugent-Bowman. I’m struggling to put together the reputed interest in Näkyvä with Holland’s comment that he’s got enough defensemen.

    He did say that he’s looking to make some moves in the next 6 weeks, could we imply from the comments you point out that those moves include a defenseman going out?

  22. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Good timing on this peice article: I’ve been ruminating about the Oil path as well:

    If the Oil can do stuff this year to get into the playoffs (healthy D, no turmoil, core a year older, secondary scoring), and a better batch of Reider, Rattie, Pool, Kailer type bets for winger this year 2020 presents a real opportunity, as all these salaries are gone:

    1) Gagner $3.2MM
    2) Kassian $2MM
    3) Mannings $2.2MM
    4) Gryba $300K
    5) Benning: $2MM

    – That’s $9.7MM in Cap space

    Then the 2 bigger tickets for 2020 :
    6) Russel is tradeable asset: base salary of $1.5MM: that’s good value for a vet D
    7)Lucic, after his bonus is paid, his salary is $1mm, $2.5MM, $1MM: so a tradeable asset, without sweetner (a no brainer for Seatlle)

    – That’s an additional $10MM in Cap space

    – Planning for $20MM in 2020, to the extent they want to push this year, vs let it bleed (and/or trade-deadline moves)

    – sometimes it’s the moves you don’t do that work out best

    – And you then have Bouchard, Jones, Marody, Benson, Lagesson, Bear, Persson, AHL goalies, MacLeod, etc: you have a better idea of where they slot

    – I’m sure they will move one or both of Lucic and Russell this off-season, and probably someone we haven’t thought of: but the big picture, and $20MM in 2020 and some of the crop of development who are going to be cheap: it’s a real thing

    – And its so much easier to trade when your team is decent than purely sellers…

    * Edit: This is the quote from Holland: ” If the Edmonton Oilers can legitimately compete – be in thick of the race, not chasing the race – then I think that we’ve had a really good offseason.”

    – A plan! Yes please. We wait…

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Connolly couldn’t beat most of them out of a job when he had a chance in Tampa,Most of them have better and far longer track records.

    I agree with this.

    The issue is that the TBY forwards will cost to acquire. Probably a significant cost in terms of players/picks

    Connolly only costs money.

    That’s a big deal unless you can get a TBY forward for one of the young LHD, which is the only surplus position.

  24. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I agree with this.

    The issue is that the TBY forwards will cost to acquire.Probably a significant cost in terms of players/picks

    Connolly only costs money.

    That’s a big deal unless you can get a TBY forward for one of the young LHD, which is the only surplus position.

    The prices for salary cap casualties should not be excessive. There are many teams that have players they have to trade as salary cap casualties.

    JT Miller’s trade protection list kicks in July 1. Holland has to move soon. Otherwise one of their forwards will have to have Edmonton on their list.

    Gerald

  25. russ99 says:

    1. We need to cut cap. Holland could sure prove his worth to the fanbase by finding cap cutting moves to trade away Lucic and Sekera – without having any 32+ year old $5-6M cap players in the bottom six or bottom pair D.

    2. Injuries happen, so I’d be gunshy to move any other defenseman given #1 – aligns with Holland’s interview. Bouchard is going to be our #2 RHD within 1-2.5 years so I don’t get the urgency to add there or force another of our players to play on his off hand side.

    3. We can’t go into the season without a major improvement at the wings, this is our top priority – aligns with Holland’s interview.

    4. Backup goalie and bottom six forwards are best addressed in FA after the first 2-3 days.

    5. If we can trade down from #8 and add, this is worth exploring.

    6. Jesse’s situation is tricky. However, I’d love to see a hardline approach against anything his agent wants. Jesse is an Oilers asset until he isn’t so Holland needs to manage that asset for the best interests of the Oilers. If it takes a holdout to get him to play in Europe, so be it.

  26. OilSafety says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Good timing on this peice article: I’ve been ruminating about the Oil path as well:

    If the Oil can do stuff this year to get into the playoffs (healthy D, no turmoil, core a year older, secondary scoring), and a better batch of Reider, Rattie, Pool, Kailer type bets for winger this year 2020 presents a real opportunity, as all these salaries are gone:

    1)Gagner $3.2MM
    2)Kassian $2MM
    3)Mannings $2.2MM
    4)Gryba $300K
    5)Benning: $2MM

    –That’s $9.7MM in Cap space

    Then the 2 bigger tickets for 2020 :
    6) Russel is tradeable asset: base salary of $1.5MM: that’s good value for a vet D
    7)Lucic, after his bonus is paid, his salary is $1mm, $2.5MM, $1MM: so a tradeable asset, without sweetner (a no brainer for Seatlle)

    – That’s an additional $10MM in Cap space

    – Planning for $20MM in 2020, to the extent they want to push this year, vs let it bleed (and/or trade-deadline moves)

    – sometimes it’s the moves you don’t do that work out best

    – And you then have Bouchard, Jones, Marody, Benson, Lagesson, Bear, Persson, AHL goalies, MacLeod, etc: you have a better idea of where they slot

    – I’m sure they will move one or both of Lucic and Russell this off-season, and probably someone we haven’t thought of: but the big picture, and $20MM in 2020 and some of the crop of development who are going to be cheap: it’s a real thing

    – And its so much easier to trade when your team is decent than purely sellers…

    Jonathan Willis at the Athletic contemplated a Russell for Perrault deal which is pretty even money wise and with the fact both players are a bit overpaid for what they bring.

    I like that option.

    Would Perrault be a middle six winger for hte Oil, or could he solve our 3C slot?

  27. OilSafety says:

    russ99:
    1. We need to cut cap.Holland could sure prove his worth to the fanbase by finding cap cutting moves to trade away Lucic and Sekera – without having any 32+ year old $5-6M cap players in the bottom six or bottom pair D.

    2. Injuries happen, so I’d be gunshy to move any other defenseman given #1 – aligns with Holland’s interview. Bouchard is going to be our #2 RHD within 1-2.5 years so I don’t get the urgency to add there or force another of our players to play on his off hand side.

    3. We can’t go into the season without a major improvement at the wings, this is our top priority – aligns with Holland’s interview.

    4. Backup goalie and bottom six forwards are best addressed in FA after the first 2-3 days.

    5. If we can trade down from #8 and add, this is worth exploring.

    6. Jesse’s situation is tricky. However, I’d love to see a hardline approach against anything his agent wants. Jesse is an Oilers asset until he isn’t so Holland needs to manage that asset for the best interests of the Oilers. If it takes a holdout to get him to play in Europe, so be it.

    The more I read about Jesse’s situation the more I think the fresh start he needs is a new GM AND a new agent.

  28. slopitch says:

    “You’ve gotta decide when to pay term. That’s how you’re gonna land players. If you ask me about the Edmonton Oilers and free agency but you don’t wanna give any term, we might as well just go fishing.”

    Just go fishing lol. The Oilers pay an weather tax as is. As a team with cap issues, I just cant see them getting close to value until July 15th.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: – On re-signing Puljujuarv – he said he doesn’t know much about him except for draft pedigree. Only had one conversation with his agent so far. He’s going to do everything he can to get him signed but “it takes two to tango.”. He’s a good young talented player and he hopes Tippett and provide some stability and that he wants to be an Oiler.

    Interestingly, when talking about wingers later in the conversation he started naming the players he’s got: Khaira’s name was mentioned, Puljujarvi’s name was not.

    I’ve got a bad feeling…

  30. slopitch says:

    LT any reason why you wouldnt pick Kadri as a 3C target? He could be 2C and let Nuge play 2LW… I dont know the cost but TO has some real cap issues if they dont get Marner under 9 million (which they shouldnt).

  31. Melvis says:

    ArmchairGM: Oopsie.

    Thank you very much. I needed working titles for a series of paintings I’m working on. Oopsie1, Oopsie 2, and so forth…pretty much covers it.

    It’s a process – like the Oilers since the Messier trade to the Rangers.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Not really. I posed the question in context of Benning being traded for JT Miller. I don’t think either of those trades are comparable, unless you think Miller would be traded for #33 and #83.

    Not really what?

  33. dustrock says:

    That’s a great interview by DNB and frankly there’s nothing alarming and actual info in there, unlike say Chiarelli.

    Obviously given the time of year Holland is hedging his bets a bit but he’s saying all the right things.

    I also appreciate he’s flat-out honest in saying he doesn’t really know Nuse and Puljujarvi. I like that a lot better than Chia destroying our prospect depth by trading for a guy Bob Green really liked in junior.

    Other interesting notes:

    (1) He fully expects Woodcroft to be back, I suspect the hesitation is allowing Jay to explore head coaching opportunities. Did not mention LA at all which is good.

    (2) Kretzky is staying and is managing Bakersfield (I seem to recall Mac T doing that previously).

    Says he likes Kretzky’s eye for players, wants to have him do some scouting once the season is under way.

  34. dustrock says:

    Is it strange to have a press conference about the Anselmi hire?

    Is this just the team trying to be more open with communications? Certainly seems like something they would simply issue a press release for in prior years.

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I bet TB dumps Callahan pretty easily. I imagine they go all in this year, next year when Sergachev, Vasilevskiy, and Cirelli need contracts they’ll be dumping Palat/Killorn/whoever.

  36. slopitch says:

    1) Gagner $3.2MM
    2) Kassian $2MM
    3) Mannings $2.2MM
    4) Gryba $300K
    5) Benning: $2MM

    Like Kinger said, the cap issues are only this year.

    Year 1: Russell for Reimer, Lucic for Eriksson
    Year 2: Move up Sekera, cap goes up 2-3 million

    They really should be focusing on a Mark Stone type addition to drive the 2nd line. Kadri, Hall, whomever. No need to piss around and waste another season… keep the 8th overall but lets play ball.

    I know the Oilers will want to have their goalies in place for the start of the season but waiting for waivers isnt the worst option. Carolina did very well getting McInney for free.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: The prices for salary cap casualties should not be excessive.There are many teams that have players they have to trade as salary cap casualties.

    JT Miller’s trade protection list kicks in July 1.Holland has to move soon.Otherwise one of their forwards will have to have Edmonton on their list.

    Gerald

    There should be a bidding war if TBY is selling Actual NHL top 6 forwards for the futures.

    Prices will probably get fairly high (asset wise)

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OilSafety:

    Would Perrault be a middle six winger for hte Oil, or could he solve our 3C slot?

    – This is the kind of “test” that will be interesting this off-season IMO. Next year Russell costs only $1.5MM. D are more valuable that F’s.

    – So do you do this lateral move, for a guy who will be harder to move next year? Or do you be patient, knowing that you can for sure get a full-disposition in a year?

    – Virtually all of the analysis of any moves contemplated are isolated only to the present. I’d rather have Russell for depth on D this year, and trade him for an asset easy next year, and trust that Holland can find a 15 goal scorer for half that price: but can totally see them doing this.

  39. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bob: Wayne and Kevin will be staying with the organization (as ambassadors). They will not be making any hockey ops decisions.

  40. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    slopitch,

    – I didn’t consider Sek, but if you assume that he plays a healthy, he could be moved next off season as well, and you have $26MM. not sure if you can run this D though as soon as 2020:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Jones-(best of Laggs/Samu/Bear/Persson, etc)

    * and whose to say Starrett isn’t ready: the guy Bennington in St-Louis looks pretty good… I’d go Koski/waiver-wire G/Starrett as well, and have an extra $1MM…

  41. razor says:

    No offense LT, but if we roll out this Fall with that forward group, then we won’t touch the playoffs. Ennis and Connolly don’t move the needle much from what we already have. I think we need some more substantial forward pickups. I agree with you for the plan on D though (and it sounds like Holland does to). No need to rush a D pickup given what’s bubbling under. Also a healthy Sekera is a major factor.

  42. Nit64 says:

    If the new biz guys looks in here as part of his customer research just one immediate thing…

    There’s a long perception that the org is sometimes behind slagging current or ex players. Root that out from the culture ASAP. Oh and there’s a show at noon in this market that leaves the impression that comment is based on a direct line to the team or higher.

  43. slopitch says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: er Sek, but if you

    Worse case he’s off the books in year+2. But either way they have the flexibility imo to either keep him or move on if others are playing better. He’ll be 34 next year but plays a smart game. Id be open to seeing how he does, with no injuries for once he’ll prob be ok.

    With goalies, its so competitive. There is no reason to commit to an average backup even. Play the field. IMO Koskinen + Reimer is very average.

  44. dustrock says:

    LT has talked about balance since Y2K was a real scare.

    Woodguy has shown us historically that the elite teams need to be 50%+ CF when their best players are off the ice.

    This isn’t the NBA, not even Connor McDavid can get the Oilers into the playoffs by himself. Nor Draisaitl and his 50 (holy hell, 50!!) goals. Playing them 24 minutes per game seems like madness and hardly a recipe for success.

    Other than C, every aspect of the team needs to be better.

    I think the forwards will be better, even if it’s just that guys like Gambo, Benson and Marody contribute for cheap.

    I am not at all satisfied with the defence but there are no quick moves here and I think you just have to wait 2 more years until Bouchard and Samorukov hopefully are ready for some big minutes.

    No panic moves, no moves which create another large hole to fill.

    No UFA overpay for salary or term.

    Get Lucic out because it’s a major distraction. Otherwise, steady as she goes. Build the rest of the team to at least saw off against the other teams.

  45. Ribs says:

    That’s some big morning news right there. I did not expect Nicholson to fire/promote himself! This feels like the right move.

  46. Jethro Tull says:

    Buyer Beware with those TBY forwards.

    1) They’re going to try their damndest to lose the fwd with perceived least value to them – either cap or skill wise.

    2) They play a very rigid system. Is it possible for the coach’s system to zoom a player? Also, are we 100% sure who’s zooming whom?

    3) I have no doubt whoever shakes free will be very good – but it’s easy to be good on a good team. Increased minutes and responsibilities on a not so good to terrible team?

    I hope homework is done before we buy a fwd just because he played for TBY.

  47. Oil2Oilers says:

    Samorukov has caught Holland’s attention. In the Athletic article Holland mentioned him a few times. Often worry about prospects getting orphaned when a new GM takes over, this does not appear to be happening with Samorukov.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    slopitch,

    – I didn’t consider Sek, but if you assume that he plays a healthy, he could be moved next off season as well, and you have $26MM.not sure if you can run this D though as soon as 2020:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Jones-(best of Laggs/Samu/Bear/Persson, etc)

    * and whose to say Starrett isn’t ready: the guy Bennington in St-Louis looks pretty good… I’d go Koski/waiver-wire G/Starrett as well, and have an extra $1MM…

    If you could run that defense in 2020-21, you’d have enough room to add a Hall-level player comfortably without trading Lucic. There’s even space for Sekera or Russell (but not both).

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Unless we can get a puck moving RHD stopgap for very cheap we should not be spending assets to fill that hole. We have so many defensemen coming up in the system that we will have to get rid of defensemen and not add.

    Getting guy like Connolly as UFA is how teams get burned in UFA. Someone is going to regret that contract on day 1

    Teams aound the league are running out of cap space. The goal should be to spend the next two years acquiring as much cap space as we can and then make a push. Bring guys in on short term contracts unless you can get a legitimate top 6 forward like Zucker

  50. geowal says:

    No more “Bob’s Burgers” jokes then?

  51. Nit64 says:

    geowal:
    No more “Bob’s Burgers” jokes then?

    As soon as they rename them.

  52. Oil2Oilers says:

    I think one of the best two birds with one stroke moves this summer is a Russell for Reimer deal with Florida.

    Meets Holland’s #1 priority of capable backup goalie.

  53. Professor Q says:

    Nit64:
    Is it too early to start the KLowe departure speculation?

    As long as K Lowry stays!

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Not really what?

    I don’t think the trades you listed were comparable to a Benning for JT Miller trade.

  55. OilSlickster says:

    godot10,

    Same could be said for Toronto. Kadri, Kapanen, Johnsson

  56. Nit64 says:

    Professor Q: As long as K Lowry stays!

    As long as Raptors keep both K.L.

    If they can keep Leonard I’d guess 1 year + 2nd year as player option. Then just about whole team is in free agency and you need to sign the right guys as part of more.

  57. OilSlickster says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    And Brodziaks 1.15m

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think the trades you listed were comparable to a Benning for JT Miller trade.

    I didn’t say they were exactly, I was showing that the value of a 3rd pairing defenseman was comparable to that of a 2nd line winger.

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ribs:
    That’s some big morning news right there. I did not expect Nicholson to fire/promote himself! This feels like the right move.

    – Oilers gonna Oil. Oiler Management means getting promoted up from a job where you should have been fired from for cause: “Bob we really love the hiring of Chia and Coach. Firing them and bringing in Hitch was also brilliant. But you outdid yourself: you interviewed people and stuff and got Holland and Tippett. So lets forget about the missed playoffs, and all your lying: we need you to get promoted up”

  60. RedArmy says:

    -Russell for Sheary
    -Lucic, Bear, 2020 pick for Eriksson
    -Puljujarvi for Haula
    -Sign Connolly/Donskoi/Zuccarello/Chiasson

    Draisaitl McDavid Kassian
    Sheary Nuge Connolly(other)
    Kharia Haula Eriksson
    Nygard Marody Gagner
    Gambardella Cave

    Klefbom Nurse
    Sekera Larsson
    Jones Benning
    Persson

    Koskinen
    Elliott

    Mid-season call up of Benson and Bouchard if ready.

  61. Nit64 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Oiler Management means getting promoted up from a job where you should have been fired from for cause

    That ship sailed when he wasn’t replaced before the GM hire. Do like that the whole PR/marketing/broadcast side is not under him now. That area needs to listen and change.

    Next step is for the IIHF to take him off our hands.

  62. OilSlickster says:

    RedArmy,

    Eriksson is not more valuable then Lucic. The whole sweetener thing is ridiculous. Straight up or not at all.

  63. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    JG Pageau is a helluva target. He would be a fantastic fit for our club. What would it realistically take to acquire him? Do we know, or have a sense that the Sens are shopping him?

  64. digger50 says:

    LT, I enjoyed reading your personal opinion blog, however I was hoping for one more nugget. What are your thoughts on moving the #8 pick in a package for a core player vs taking the #8 this year?

    Thought process, adv vs disadvantage…

  65. RedArmy says:

    OilSlickster,

    You pay for the extra year of saving Six mil

  66. Nit64 says:

    RedArmy:
    OilSlickster,

    You pay for the extra year of saving Six mil

    Sure. Something extra, but not Benson which a local blogger click-baited recently.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    You might be taking JP off the shelf quicker than you think if Alex Chiasson is looking for $3M+ and term. I wonder if the Oil have kcked his tires yet and know exactly what they are going to do with him. Three months ago we all agreed we would extend him in that $1.5 range, that seems like pie in the sky now.

    $3M for Chiasson is egregious and isn’t something the general manager could be seriously contemplating.

    If he wants term, say 3 years, he needs to sign with an AAV near $1.25M.

    $1.75M for one year.

    $1.5M for two.

    Something like that.

    He is a middle six guy that went on a heater with Drai/Rieder in the fall.

    He didn’t piss a drop offensively in the 2nd half of the season and his P/60 at 5 on 5 was at a fourth line rate, around 1.15 I believe.

    No way, no how.

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t say they were exactly, I was showing that the value of a 3rd pairing defenseman was comparable to that of a 2nd line winger.

    And I’m saying there’s no way Tampa trades Miller for #33 and #83. The Jets just gave up #20 and Branden Lemieux for deadline rental Kevin Hayes. Miller has scored more and has multiple years left on his deal. It’s not comparable. Johansson was a rental as well and he’s older with fewer 20 goal seasons. You might think Benning can be traded for a 20 goal scorer. I’m saying it’s very very unlikely.

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    Interesting excerpt from theathletic.com:

    “Is there going to be enough money to go around?

    The NHL’s current cap is set at $79.5 million and projected to rise to $83 million. While there’s some wiggle room, it’s not a lot, given that just about every team is already burdened by a salary-cap anchor or two that will limit what they can do – and how much they can spend.

    The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the cost of signing those RFAs is going to be higher than ever. It was only three years ago, when the going rate for the Mark Scheifeles and Nathan MacKinnons, the Johnny Gaudreaus and Sean Monahans, fell somewhere in the $6- to $7-million per season range on a long-term deal. Now those deals will seem like eye-popping bargains, given what the likes of Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen, Sebastien Aho, Matthew Tkachuk and all the rest are going to demand in their new deals.

    That’s Part A of the problem.

    Part B is that unusually strong cast of unrestricted free agents heading to market this season. The names are familiar to you by now – starting with three big fish who ended the season in Columbus (Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky), not to mention Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Jake Gardiner, Jeff Skinner, Kevin Hayes, Joe Pavelski, Anders Lee, Mats Zuccarello, Gus Nyquist, Micheal Ferland, Marcus Johansson, Ryan Dzingel, Wayne Simmonds, Jordan Eberle – all of whom are going to command interest in the market.

    Some have more red flags attached than others – injury concerns, or advancing age, or both, which may mitigate what they actually earn.

    Most years, even when the free-agent crop is just so-so, a handful of players fall through the cracks – and linger on the market for weeks and sometimes months. This year, the risk seems far greater.

    Accordingly, there is a real danger here – for players and for the agents that represent them – of miscalculating the market. If your client happens to be one that falls through the cracks early because teams are running out of cap space, ultimately, they may have to sign for a deep discount or attend training camps on a tryout basis.”

    https://theathletic.com/1016659/2019/06/07/duhatschek-notebook-what-if-nhl-gms-played-the-white-elephant-gift-exchange-with-bad-contracts/?article_source=related

    If Holland is patient and plays his cards right, there could be some great deals available July 2nd and beyond.

  70. Gerta Rauss says:

    Nit64: Sure. Something extra, but not Benson which a local blogger click-baited recently.

    Eriksson to EDM on June 30 for future considerations

    July 1 Oilers pay the Lucic bonus and then complete the transaction by sending Lucic to Vancouver

    That’s about where I’m at- I’m not sending anything of material value to grease a Lucic/Eriksson swap

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Johansson was a rental as well

    No he wasn’t. If you read my original comment you’d have seen that. He was coming off a very good season, having posted 82, 24-34-58 +25 – better than any season Miller has had, and he had 2 years left on his contract.

    Also, Johansson was 26 at the time of the trade, Miller is currently 26 as well.

  72. G Money says:

    I assume all of you, like me, are outraged that LT used his own blog to express his personal opinion. The nerve!

  73. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Buyer Beware with those TBY forwards.

    1)They’re going to try their damndest to lose the fwd with perceived least value to them – either cap or skill wise.

    2) They play a very rigid system.Is it possible for the coach’s system to zoom a player?Also, are we 100% sure who’s zooming whom?

    3) I have no doubt whoever shakes free will be very good – but it’s easy to be good on a good team.Increased minutes and responsibilities on a not so good to terrible team?

    I hope homework is done before we buy a fwd just because he played for TBY.

    JT Miller had multiple 20-goal seasons with the Rangers. He can play all forward positions.

  74. G Money says:

    On a more serious note, most of the trade suggestions I read are either whack-a-mole (fill a gap by creating one elsewhere) or unrealistic (get a gap-filling good NHL player by trading away a not-good player … pray for Chia to land another NHL GM role).

    The Oilers suffer from the basic problem of not having enough NHL players on the roster, having repeatedly given away NHL players for either lesser NHL players or non-NHL players.

    The recipe for the future is straightforward: more skill on the wing in the Top 6 F, more skill on the Top 4 D, and a Bottom 6 F and Bottom 2 D that don’t give away the farm every shift.

    All I ask of the Oilers is that they:

    – they either know they’re going to win the trade, or don’t make the trade

    – try not to trade those few NHL players they’ve got left, and if they do, *really* win the trade

  75. godot10 says:

    Gerta Rauss: Eriksson to EDM on June 30 for future considerations

    July 1 Oilers pay the Lucic bonus and then complete the transaction by sending Lucic to Vancouver

    That’s about where I’m at- I’m not sending anything of material value to grease a Lucic/Eriksson swap

    Ericksson for Lucic. Each team retains 50%. Balances out the 3 year vs 4 year thing. That is my sweetener.

  76. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    With what some of these UFA are going to ask for teams are going to be running out of cap space in a hurry. Even Arizona if they pursue Duchenne will be out of cap space same as Florida if they go after Bob or Panarin.
    Having cap space going forward will be a huge asset

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    1. We need to cut cap.Holland could sure prove his worth to the fanbase by finding cap cutting moves to trade away Lucic and Sekera – without having any 32+ year old $5-6M cap players in the bottom six or bottom pair D.

    2. Injuries happen, so I’d be gunshy to move any other defenseman given #1 – aligns with Holland’s interview. Bouchard is going to be our #2 RHD within 1-2.5 years so I don’t get the urgency to add there or force another of our players to play on his off hand side.

    3. We can’t go into the season without a major improvement at the wings, this is our top priority – aligns with Holland’s interview.

    4. Backup goalie and bottom six forwards are best addressed in FA after the first 2-3 days.

    5. If we can trade down from #8 and add, this is worth exploring.

    6. Jesse’s situation is tricky. However, I’d love to see a hardline approach against anything his agent wants. Jesse is an Oilers asset until he isn’t so Holland needs to manage that asset for the best interests of the Oilers. If it takes a holdout to get him to play in Europe, so be it.

    1) I think you mean Lucic and Russell, right?

    3) Aside from the back-up/1B tender, Holland has been pretty clear his focus is the wings. In the interview with DNB, he expressly states he isn’t looking to add the defense and that he needs to beef up the wingers. He did speak to the bottom 6 but I’m sure he’s looking to add one top 6 guy – he needs to be careful though and not overypay a Connolly or overpay a Nyquist (via term).

  78. Drew says:

    Ribs:
    That’s some big morning news right there. I did not expect Nicholson to fire/promote himself! This feels like the right move.

    I don’t think Bob did this?

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSafety: The more I read about Jesse’s situation the more I think the fresh start he needs is a new GM AND a new agent.

    His agent has done him a massive disservice over the last 3 years, and continues to do so.

    Taking all the steps to decrease his AHL time and lose his waiver exemption, presumably in the name of quick cash, will likely lead to the player making millions and millions less over his career due to not developing in the player he could have been.

  80. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10,

    Yeah, that’s not bad

    The 2 players are owed $32M total, a 50% retained transaction splits the liability $17/$15 with VAN paying the extra 2 million

    My suggestion splits the money at $16M each, although I can see the attraction for VAN(for your deal) because that 4th year the cap hit is $3M each (instead of $6M for VAN and $0 for EDM)

  81. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar: $3M for Chiasson is egregious and isn’t something the general manager could be seriously contemplating.

    If he wants term, say 3 years, he needs to sign with an AAV near $1.25M.

    $1.75M for one year.

    $1.5M for two.

    Something like that.

    He is a middle six guy that went on a heater with Drai/Rieder in the fall.

    He didn’t piss a drop offensively in the 2nd half of the season and his P/60 at 5 on 5 was at a fourth line rate, around 1.15 I believe.

    No way, no how.

    Strait fire from OP, I like it…..TRUTH

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t say they were exactly, I was showing that the value of a 3rd pairing defenseman was comparable to that of a 2nd line winger.

    I’m not going to argue this all, but #33 and #83 is not what you get for a second line player. I originally asked if someone could cite an example of a third pairing dman traded for a second line winger. A dman traded for 33 and 83 is not an example.

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not going to argue this all, but #33 and #83 is not what you get for a second line player. I originally asked if someone could cite an example of a third pairing dman traded for a second line winger. A dman traded for 33 and 83 is not an example.

    *Rolls eyes*

    Both the 3rd pairing dman and the 2nd line winger were traded for similar picks. I thought it would add to the conversation. I guess not. Have a nice day.

  84. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think if EDM could’ve gotten a 2nd rounder for Benning, he’d have been gone by now.

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: No he wasn’t. If you read my original comment you’d have seen that. He was coming off a very good season, having posted 82, 24-34-58 +25 – better than any season Miller has had, and he had 2 years left on his contract.

    Also, Johansson was 26 at the time of the trade, Miller is currently 26 as well.

    I get it now. You’ve shown it in a roundabout way. My apologies. So there is an example kinda.

  86. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not going to argue this all, but #33 and #83 is not what you get for a second line player. I originally asked if someone could cite an example of a third pairing dman traded for a second line winger. A dman traded for 33 and 83 is not an example.

    Teams looking to dump salary are going to be desperate this year, with the quality of top end UFAs, the elite RFA’s needing contracts, and the resetting of the salary scales because of McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s contract.

    A legit young 3rd pairing right D on a great contract will have significant value.

    And Tampa has the high quality left defense to mitigate all of Benning’s weaknesses.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:

    (1) He fully expects Woodcroft to be back, I suspect the hesitation is allowing Jay to explore head coaching opportunities.Did not mention LA at all which is good.

    (2) Kretzky is staying and is managing Bakersfield (I seem to recall Mac T doing that previously).

    I didn’t mention those in my personal summary as they’ve both already been solidified and announced.

    I think the interview must have taken place over a week ago and there has been some movement since then.

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    G Money:
    I assume all of you, like me, are outraged that LT used his own blog to express his personal opinion. The nerve!

    I know right?!?!

    Ranks up there with his mock drafts.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Ericksson for Lucic.Each team retains 50%. Balances out the 3 year vs 4 year thing. That is my sweetener.

    One of the reasons you do that trade is since Ericsson’s buyout isn’t as gross as Lucic’s

    Retaining on him kills that side of the ledger.

  90. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar: His agent has done him a massive disservice over the last 3 years, and continues to do so.

    Taking all the steps to decrease his AHL time and lose his waiver exemption, presumably in the name of quick cash, will likely lead to the player making millions and millions less over his career due to not developing in the player he could have been.

    I agree. They forced the issue coming over from Finland, everyone agreed, and now we’re all suffering for it.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    The only thing about the Holland interview that provided me with trepidation is that he is contemplating buyouts (or a buyout).

    The only player that I could imagine he does this with is Manning – it saves $1.3M on the cap this year which is marginally more than the $1.075 burying him would save. It creates the new cap hit of $667K the following year. It doesn’t seem beneficial to me unless he needs to the spot on the 50 or if there is pressure to let the man try and find another NHL job (veteran NHL guy, etc.).

    I guess he could buy out Gagner which saves a few million this year but creates a new cap hit of over $1M the following year – doesn’t sound like a good idea and, while expensive, we know Holland wants skill in the bottom 6.

    I don’t see him buying out actual NHL d-men in Russell or Sekera and, in particular a legit 2nd pairing guy (unless he shows he is no longer that) in Sekera.

    He talks alot about getting a goalie but I can’t imagine that is in replacement of Koskinen – buying out a contract that hasn’t even started yet seems like its bad for business (even though it would save close to $4M this season).

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Samorukov has caught Holland’s attention. In the Athletic article Holland mentioned him a few times. Often worry about prospects getting orphaned when a new GM takes over, this does not appear to be happening with Samorukov.

    He’s taken note, as managers across the league have.

    It really started with his performance at this year’s World Juniors but it should have started at last year’s where he worked his way up the depth chart as the games went on and earned the coaches’ trust and more ice and had a really strong tournament.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSlickster:
    RedArmy,

    Eriksson is not more valuable then Lucic. The whole sweetener thing is ridiculous. Straight up or not at all.

    I think Eriksson might be (even without taking in to account one year less of term and no NMC).

    As far as straight production, over the last two years, Ericksson has been more productive and Lucic was only productive in the first year driven by a PP heater where all his numbers literally doubled previous career highs – he was essentially just as non-productive at evens.

    As far as straight points:

    Year one – clearly Lucic was superior with his PP heater

    Year two – Lucic had a few more points but in 30 more games – when healthy, Eriksson was the more productive player at both PPG and P/60

    Year three – Eriksson was the superior producer.

    Over the three years, Lucic’s 5 on 5 P/60 is 1.17 – fourth line rate

    Over the three years Eriksson’s 5 on 5 P/60 was not much better at 1.27

    This past year Eriksson’s 5 on 5 P/60 was actually a respectable 1.43 (higher than Kassian, Khaira, Chiasson, Rattie, Puljjuarvi and, of course, Lucic who was an 0.97).

    It seems Eriksson is the more productive offensive player.

    ———————————————–

    Also, Eriksson has been a consistent part of the Canuck PK for the three years and the numbers suggest he is solid in that role (actually, the numbers suggest he is better than that but I don’t want to get too far ahead of that). He played over a minute per game on the PK that was 11th in the NHL – the Oilers could use that.

    —————————————

    Eriksson also played a significant amount of his minutes this past season against elites – no, I’m not saying he’s a great 2-way player or defensive specialist but it seems his coach trusted him to at least munch some tough minutes.

    —————————–

    I’m not saying Eriksson is a great player or worth his contract, clearly not, however, the one year less term makes a one of one appealing (not to mention the lack of a NMC) and, clearly, Eriksson has been the more productive player over the last two years and provides a broader range of skills.

  94. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: His agent has done him a massive disservice over the last 3 years, and continues to do so.

    Taking all the steps to decrease his AHL time and lose his waiver exemption, presumably in the name of quick cash, will likely lead to the player making millions and millions less over his career due to not developing in the player he could have been.

    Unless they can get some value coming back in a trade I hope Holland makes him and his agent sweat it out if they start acting goofy. Jesse has shown basically sweet FA in 3 years blame it on this blame it on that but it’s time for him to sign a fair show me contract put his head down and show the league why he was drafted at no 3 oops I mean no 4

  95. who says:

    godot10: Teams looking to dump salary are going to be desperate this year, with the quality of top end UFAs, the elite RFA’s needing contracts, and the resetting of the salary scales because of McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s contract.

    A legit young 3rd pairing right D on a great contract will have significant value.

    And Tampa has the high quality left defense to mitigate all of Benning’s weaknesses.

    I wouldn’t call Benning at 1.9 million a great contract.
    He is the 6D on the Oilers, with limited upside. Seems like an overpay to me.

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    Q: Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.

    To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

    2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
    2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
    2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

    Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

    So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

    TOI: 1250:19
    CF%: 52.79
    FF%: 53.00
    SF%: 53.17
    GF%: 55.65

    xGF%: 53.71
    SCF%: 52.75
    SCGF%: 56.99
    HDCF%: 52.69
    HDGF%: 56.72

    Sh%: 9.51
    Sv%: 91.75
    PDO: 1.013

    Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

    With McDavid

    TOI: 420:30
    CF%: 55.19
    FF%: 56.65
    SF%: 56.14
    GF%: 62.96

    xGF%: 56.10
    SCF%: 55.27
    HDCF%: 55.10
    HDGF%: 59.38

    Sh%: 14.05
    Sv%: 90.73
    PDO: 1.048

    Without McDavid:

    TOI: 829:47
    CF%: 51.39
    FF%: 50.88
    SF%: 51.49
    GF%: 49.18

    xGF%: 52.06
    SCF%: 50.97
    HDCF%: 50.80
    HDGF%: 54.29

    Sh%: 8.20
    Sv%: 94.67
    PDO: 1.029

    The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

    And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

    The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

    Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
    Nurse: 44.51
    Russell: 43.87
    Larsson: 43.68
    Klefbom: 40.27
    Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

    For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.

    So what am I missing here? Why do the numbers sparkle like diamonds when the voices calling for Holland to trade him for a 3rd liner grow louder and louder? Why do I see a dependable 25-year-old, right-shot defender on a cheap contract who is only 2/3rds of the way to LT’s 300-game marker, while others see trade-bait and cap-dump? What am I missing?

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I think if EDM could’ve gotten a 2nd rounder for Benning, he’d have been gone by now.

    Carolina paid a late 2nd for TVR, Benning’s on-ice results are better than TVR’s were. What are you seeing that I’m not?

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    who: I wouldn’t call Benning at 1.9 million a great contract.
    He is the 6D on the Oilers,with limited upside. Seems like an overpay to me.

    Benning gets better results than all of the other Oilers top-6 with McDavid off the ice. Does that seem like an overpay to you?

    EDIT: Check that, Benning gets better results than all of the Oilers top-6 with McDavid ON the ice, too. His GF% is a hair behind Nurse’s, but all his shot-based metrics are better.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    LT, I enjoyed reading your personal opinion blog, however I was hoping for one more nugget. What are your thoughts on moving the #8 pick in a package for a core player vs taking the #8 this year?

    Thought process, adv vs disadvantage…

    Not to interject with my own opinion but I am board with Holland who has expressed that he doesn’t foresee a scenario where he trades the pick.

    I love the fact that Holland’s clear goal looks past this year and he will not take an undue risk or commit to the wrong type of player in the name of immediate improvement.

    There is just so much value to higher end just drafted players in the cap era and for capped teams. These are the players that turn in to value contracts that teams need in order to win championships.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: And I’m saying there’s no way Tampa trades Miller for #33 and #83. The Jets just gave up #20 and Branden Lemieux for deadline rental Kevin Hayes. Miller has scored more and has multiple years left on his deal. It’s not comparable. Johansson was a rental as well and he’s older with fewer 20 goal seasons. You might think Benning can be traded for a 20 goal scorer. I’m saying it’s very very unlikely.

    Woodguy v2.0: One of the reasons you do that trade is since Ericsson’s buyout isn’t as gross as Lucic’s

    Retaining on him kills that side of the ledger.

    I haven’t looked for a bit now but isn’t the buyout similar to Lucic’s? Maybe not quite as bad but on the same level as egregious and essentially prohibitive?

    Of course, 2 less years of completely dead and extra cap.

  101. Jethro Tull says:

    The best thing to happen to the Oilers recently was the play-off run. The worst thing? The GM didn’t realise what he had and remained committed to his long term plan with little to no flexibility for change until change was forced on him by circumstance largely of his own making.

    Chia caught lightning in a bottle and tipped it down the drain due to looking past that year, because the roster he had didn’t line up with what he thought won games. I hope Holland doesn’t remain so rigid and make the same mistake…..

    The lessons? A good plan never survives the first fuck up, remain flexible to random opportunities and keep your sense of humour.

  102. LadiesloveSmid says:

    ArmchairGM: Carolina paid a late 2nd for TVR, Benning’s on-ice results are better than TVR’s were. What are you seeing that I’m not?

    TVR played 18.5 minutes on a playoff team, while Benning played under 15 on a bottom feeder.

    That 2nd rounder was 62nd overall

    Mostly just what I’ve heard peddled from Stauffer/media was that he was available and there weren’t much for takers. I’d keep him & also see what they have in Persson/Bear/Bouchard

  103. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: One of the reasons you do that trade is since Ericsson’s buyout isn’t as gross as Lucic’s

    Retaining on him kills that side of the ledger.

    Isn’t it the Lucic contract just one year shorter and without NMC?
    It’s a contract you can’t buy out either way but you get a guy who is older

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid: TVR played 18.5 minutes on a playoff team, while Benning played under 15 on a bottom feeder.

    That 2nd rounder was 62nd overall

    Mostly just what I’ve heard peddled from Stauffer/media was that he was available and there weren’t much for takers. I’d keep him & also see what they have in Persson/Bear/Bouchard

    Last time I looked up TVR’s numbers he was playing a very sheltered role with Chicago, with worse results than Benning has posted.

  105. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Before I read a post I just want to say I am aligned with almost all your thoughts here LT (brainwashed by reading here so much maybe???) 😜. Especially on the D thoughts. Wouldn’t mind if we could aim a bit higher than Elliott tho. I also sincerely hope sweet JP can find peace and a piece in Edmonton. But wtf knows how that story will end….

  106. who says:

    ArmchairGM: Benning gets better results than all of the other Oilers top-6 with McDavid off the ice. Does that seem like an overpay to you?

    EDIT: Check that, Benning gets better results than all of the Oilers top-6 with McDavid ON the ice, too. His GF% is a hair behind Nurse’s, but all his shot-based metrics are better.

    Which defender on the Oilers is Benning as good as?
    Is he better than Russell? According to your numbers he must be. And yet he’s been dropped down the lineup, in favor of Russell, the last 2 seasons.
    Is he better than Sekera? Seems to me he didn’t start looking like a competent dman until he was paired with Sekera.
    Is he better than Larrson? If you go by last years numbers, I guess he must be. I wouldn’t trade Larsson for him, would you?
    Is he better than Nurse, or Klefbom. According to the numbers he must be.
    And yet, when I watch him play, I see a right handed version of Brandon Davidson. A useful player, but one that is replaceable. To me he looks like a guy who has maxed out his skillset. Full credit to him, but there is just no upside left.

  107. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    We are always quick to believe that what went seen is what we will get in the future.

    LT has started several times that for Dmen the game slows down at about 200 games and they then settle in to what they will be.

    Benning had played 205 NHL games and now, based on that, could take a significant step forward.

    I’m not sure we want to trade him just as he gets it all figured out.

    Sounds a little like Petry to me. In hind sight everyone knew he was going to be this good.

  108. Drew says:

    who: Which defender on the Oilers is Benning as good as?
    Is he better than Russell? According to your numbers he must be.And yet he’s been dropped down the lineup, in favor of Russell,the last 2 seasons.
    Is he better than Sekera? Seems to me he didn’t start looking like a competent dman until he was paired with Sekera.
    Is he better than Larrson? If you go by last years numbers, I guess he must be.I wouldn’t trade Larsson for him,would you?
    Is he better than Nurse,orKlefbom. According to the numbers he must be.
    And yet, when I watch him play, I see a right handed version of Brandon Davidson. A useful player, but one that is replaceable. To me he looks like a guy who has maxed out his skillset. Full credit to him, but there is just no upside left.

    Might be the Jan Hejda phenomena happening

  109. ArmchairGM says:

    who: Which defender on the Oilers is Benning as good as?
    Is he better than Russell? According to your numbers he must be.And yet he’s been dropped down the lineup, in favor of Russell,the last 2 seasons.
    Is he better than Sekera? Seems to me he didn’t start looking like a competent dman until he was paired with Sekera.
    Is he better than Larrson? If you go by last years numbers, I guess he must be.I wouldn’t trade him for Larsson,would you?
    Is he better than Nurse,orKlefbom. According to the numbers he must be.
    And yet, when I watch him play, I see a right handed version of Brandon Davidson. A useful player, but one that is replaceable. To me he looks like a guy who has maxed out his skillset. Full credit to him, but there is just no upside left.

    I didn’t say that he was better than anyone. I believe what I stated was that he gets better results, a fact that cannot be disproved. Why does he get better results? I’m still looking for the answer to that question.

  110. Drew says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t say that he was better than anyone. I believe what I stated was that he gets better results, a fact that cannot be disproved. Why does he get better results? I’m still looking for the answer to that question.

    what if he is better than some other dmen but there is coaching error. ie they send poorer choices out on the ice? what if the eyes lie?

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not to interject with my own opinion but I am board with Holland who has expressed that he doesn’t foresee a scenario where he trades the pick.

    I love the fact that Holland’s clear goal looks past this year and he will not take an undue risk or commit to the wrong type of player in the name of immediate improvement.

    There is just so much value to higher end just drafted players in the cap era and for capped teams.These are the players that turn in to value contracts that teams need in order to win championships.

    I like the fact that he’s communicating but not tipping his hand as we’ve seen so often previously.

    No mention of expansion draft implications and a public road map that precludes nothing and doesn’t spook the fan base off the ledge.

    Competence means a lot.

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    To me the biggest hope for next season is Tippet.

    I don’t see that the Oilers have a bunch of lousy players and so they can’t win. Any team can be better. No team keeps the ultimate line up because cap.

    What makes teams stay good is a good culture, and a good coach. Getting the best out of flawed. I don’t think McLellan is a coach that gets the player’s best outside of players that always give their best- top shelf players.

    We’ve said here for years the Oilers are where NHL careers go to die. So many players go from competent to useless in Edmonton.

    Trotz took a meh team and transformed it, mostly the same roster. If Tippet gets everyone on the same page and bought in, Holland can make a few adds, there is enough for playoffs.

    If Holland can clear some cap and an unhappy camper or two, things aren’t so bad. If he does that and Tippet can’t sort the ice out there is something in the water.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I like the fact that he’s communicating but not tipping his hand as we’ve seen so often previously.

    No mention of expansion draft implications and a public road map that precludes nothing and doesn’t spook the fan base off the ledge.

    Competence means a lot.

    Well, he has provided quite a bit of detail on the plan:

    – not trading the 8th
    – not looking to add to the defence
    – sign a UFA goalie
    – need to work on bottom 6 depth and skill in bottom 6
    – needs to work on wingers in general

  114. who says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    We are always quick to believe that what went seen is what we will get in the future.

    LT has started several times that for Dmen the game slows down at about 200 games and they then settle in to what they will be.

    Benning had played 205 NHL games and now, based on that, could take a significant step forward.

    I’m not sure we want to trade him just as he gets it all figured out.

    Sounds a little like Petry to me. In hind sight everyone knew he was going to be this good.

    I am going to assume you have watched both Petry and Benning play. Do you think Benning is as good now as Petry was with the Oilers?
    I don’t. Not even close.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like Matty Benning and think he is under-rated generally (even with the eye test, not just the fancies) but he isn’t in the same ball-park as Jeff Petry, not now and not when Petry was Benning’s age.

    As under-rated as Benning might be, Petry was one of the most under-rated Oilers of the era – at least in my mind – personally, I have zero surprise he has turned in to a legit top pairing d-man and think he was essentially there as an Oiler.

  116. ArmchairGM says:

    Drew: what if he is better than some other dmen but there is coaching error. ie they send poorer choices out on the ice? what if the eyes lie?

    What if coaching is an issue? For a team that is on it’s 3rd coach in about 8 months, do you have to ask the question?

  117. godot10 says:

    Could Nugent-Hopkins be setting a record for most number of coaches while on a single team.

    Renney, Krueger, Eakins, MacT, Nelson, McLellan, Hitchcock, Tippett.

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10:
    Could Nugent-Hopkins be setting a record for most number of coaches while on a single team.

    Renney, Krueger, Eakins, MacT, Nelson, McLellan, Hitchcock, Tippett.

    – MacT twice. I don’t even have to look it up : no #1 pick ever would have 9 coaches to start their career. Nor would any 26 year old.

    – There are journey men in sport that would have more. The pitcher jays picked up has had like 20 coaches but he moves from team to team.

  119. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Thank you for the Benning perspective

  120. Buddy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I like Matty Benning and think he is under-rated generally (even with the eye test, not just the fancies) but he isn’t in the same ball-park as Jeff Petry, not now and not when Petry was Benning’s age.

    As under-rated as Benning might be, Petry was one of the most under-rated Oilers of the era – at least in my mind – personally, I have zero surprise he has turned in to a legit top pairing d-man and think he was essentially there as an Oiler.

    I think MacT’s inability as a GM to evaluate defencemen was shocking. I simply can’t explain it for myself in a way that makes sense.

  121. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Benning gets better results than all of the other Oilers top-6 with McDavid off the ice. Does that seem like an overpay to you?

    EDIT: Check that, Benning gets better results than all of the Oilers top-6 with McDavid ON the ice, too. His GF% is a hair behind Nurse’s, but all his shot-based metrics are better.

    I actually quite liked Benning at the end of the season. Thought he played well with Sekera. And I don’t have a burning desire to trade him. I simply think people are dreaming if they believe he nets a 20-goal scorer. But we have to make room for the kids somehow so someone has to go. I also believe for the time being we need to keep one of Russel or Sekera, preferably the latter. I also think Benning could possibly play second pair, but that is a massive if and we better not count on it. Two coaches have decided he’s not up to the task yet. I would also be quite happy to trade him for a guy like Brown.

  122. jp says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I posted something quite similar Re: Benning recently, so I absolutely agree. Not sure what you/we are missing. Also good to see a different path to the same conclusion and the with/without McDavid stuff is a nice addition.

    I think if Benning was on a different team the Lowetide community would be talking about him as a low-cost candidate who’s likely capable of taking on more responsibility.

    I think Benning is *probably* capable of playing 2nd pair minutes as effectively as Russell or Sekera. Even with the *probably* attached, that makes him a more valuable player relative to cap hit than the other two.

    If Benning and a 2nd can fetch you Miller or Kapanen, then you do it. Otherwise maybe you hold onto him for the time being.

  123. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    who: I am going to assume you have watched both Petry and Benning play. Do you think Benning is as good now as Petry was with the Oilers?
    I don’t.Not even close.

    I was not comparing Benning to Petry in ability only in that he was traded as a relatively young dman who improved significantly since the trade.

    It has been said that elite defenders make themselves known early. Good but not elite dmen tend to take longer to reach their potential.

    Benning is right at the cusp of when good dmen tend to show themselves and it would be a shame to put all the learning time in and trade him as he makes that big step forward. That is how the perma-rebuild is engineered, trade and retrain ad infinitum.

    I just think we may regret trading him now.

    I do understand that he may not make that step but if he does not he will still have the trade value of a competent 3D so nothing is lost.

  124. SwedishPoster says:

    dustrock: I agree.They forced the issue coming over from Finland, everyone agreed, and now we’re all suffering for it.

    Question is who forced the issue? The early reports out of Finland was that Jesse wanted to stay with Kärpät for the first year. Then suddenly he’s coming over, which imo was a mistake. Could very well have been the Oilers pushing for him to come to NA right away, Todd McLellan mentioned several times that they wanted to push the timeline for Jesse. After that it’s obvious his agent negotiated for a certain number of games to burn RFA years, which again was a mistake with regards to development. But one must remember that the AHL has a really bad rep in Sweden and Finland, in particular as a development league, some of it’s deserved some of it’s not.
    Much later on some media guy, don’t remember who, mentions that the agent threatened with Jesse signing in the KHL with Jokerit if the Oilers wouldn’t bring him straight to the NHL. Which didn’t really make sense since first of all a different team held his rights and Jokerit was bleeding money at the time.

    I’m not one to defend agents as I think they tend to be shortsighted and looking for a big paycheck for themselves rather then what’s best for their client but I don’t think the “truth” that’s being pushed by media around Jesse and his first season is correct just because it doesn’t make sense.

    It’s the same with his hip issues. The media guys near the org spread this thing when reports came out he needed surgery that Jesse had done heavy weightraining against the Oilers wishes last offseason which was causing the issues. Now while I haven’t read through Jesse’s charts with the way it’s been described it sounds an awful lot like FAI which is congenital but gets worsened by hard training done before t he bones physeal closure. So as far as research goes at this point the pain can keep getting worse after you’ve stopped growing but the actual damage doesn’t get worse once the physes are closed. Also, they have looked at the type of training that causes it and it’s dynamic sports often with contact like soccer or hockey done with high frequency where it’s the most common, weightlifting was NOT shown to make it more prevalent even when done at a high level at a young age, it was as common in weightlifters as it is in the general population.
    So either the Oilers need to fire their medical staff as well for not being updated or someone fed the media bs. Jesse may very well have trained differently then what the Oilers wanted, which is an issue in itself, but it didn’t cause his hip problems. It bothers me because it sets this narrative that it’s all on the player. Imo that narrative won’t benefit anyone.

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I actually quite liked Benning at the end of the season. Thought he played well with Sekera. And I don’t have a burning desire to trade him. I simply think people are dreaming if they believe he nets a 20-goal scorer. But we have to make room for the kids somehow so someone has to go. I also believe for the time being we need to keep one of Russel or Sekera, preferably the latter. I also think Benning could possibly play second pair, but that is a massive if and we better not count on it. Two coaches have decided he’s not up to the task yet. I would also be quite happy to trade him for a guy like Brown.

    I guess you put a much higher valuation on Brown than I do.

  126. ArmchairGM says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: I was not comparing Benning to Petry in ability only in that he was traded as a relatively young dman who improved significantly since the trade.

    It has been said that elite defenders make themselves known early.Good but not elite dmen tend to take longer to reach their potential.

    Benning is right at the cusp of when good dmen tend to show themselves and it would be a shame to put all the learning time in and trade him as he makes that big step forward.That is how the perma-rebuild is engineered, trade and retrain ad infinitum.

    I just think we may regret trading him now.

    I do understand that he may not make that step but if he does not he will still have the trade value of a competent 3D so nothing is lost.

    Well said. There is no downside to keeping him for now. I fear that if we trade him this summer we’ll be looking for his replacement come Christmas. I know we have prospects coming, but we don’t yet know when they’re coming.

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    jp:

    I posted something quite similar Re: Benning recently, so I absolutely agree. Not sure what you/we are missing. Also good to see a different path to the same conclusion and the with/without McDavid stuff is a nice addition.

    Yes, I saw your piece and it was the inspiration for my research, so thanks for that. I didn’t doubt your conclusions, I just find sometimes its easier to get my mind around something when I start at first principles and go from there.

    jp:

    I think if Benning was on a different team the Lowetide community would be talking about him as a low-cost candidate who’s likely capable of taking on more responsibility.

    I agree, he would be a trade target for sure. And we wouldn’t be talking about trading a 3rd line winger for him either. See Strome, Ryan for classic sellers remorse.

    jp:

    I think Benning is *probably* capable of playing 2nd pair minutes as effectively as Russell or Sekera. Even with the *probably* attached, that makes him a more valuable player relative to cap hit than the other two.

    The numbers certainly indicate this, the eye test doesn’t seem to corroborate it though. Is this a case of “single moments” or whatever LT likes to say?

    jp:

    If Benning and a 2nd can fetch you Miller or Kapanen, then you do it. Otherwise maybe you hold onto him for the time being.

    I don’t think Miller is as good as Benning defensively, thus is stuck to 3RD for sure – I don’t think he can move up even in a pinch. He’s a PP wizard though, but with Bouchard coming soon I’m not sure how long he’d be getting prime PP time here.

    Kapanen is a different story though, I’d have to consider such a deal. I think the best thing is to hold on to Benning and run him at 2RD, if it works we have a 2RD and his value skyrockets, if not, to quote Ancient Oilers Fan above, “he will still have the trade value of a competent 3D so nothing is lost.”

    Unfortunately, the Kapanen window is this summer… I have suggested elsewhere that Kapanen + Brown might cost #38 + McLeod, but if throwing Bear in does the trick I’d consider that too. Benning + #38 might just get you both players – Marner is going to get paid and that’s going to hurt Toronto’s ability to retain young wingers.

  128. Yeti says:

    SwedishPoster,

    I love you, Swedishposter.

  129. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide,

    I have a comment awaiting moderation.

  130. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft

    https://theathletic.com/1016979/2019/06/11/lowetide-looking-at-the-oilers-options-for-the-no-8-pick-at-the-2019-nhl-draft/

  131. Pouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: Then suddenly he’s coming over, which imo was a mistake.

    We were in the minority. Most wanted him in the AHL to learn the N.A. game despite countless examples of players staying at home in their draft +1 year.

    WHERE ARE YOU CHACHI YOU BASTARD!

  132. russ99 says:

    SwedishPoster,

    There’s no concrete proof for this, but I’m going with MacTavish being the one making the call on bringing Jesse over, with an assist from Chiarelli not acquiring enough NHL talent to make the early promotion feasible.

    MacT was directly in charge of player development and he’s a big proponent of the “sink or swim” method of top prospect development.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    i wonder how the constant trading away of second rounders over the years is currently effecting the organization?

  134. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    i wonder how the constant trading away of second rounders over the years is currently effecting the organization?

    The Oilers have also used a lot of 2nd round picks for poor bets that didn’t pan out.

    But yes, not having functional players drafted in the 2nd round has put strain on all the other players.

  135. jp says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Agreed on pretty much everything.

    And for Miller I meant JT from TBay as per Godot. So if you ca turn Benning and a pick into a top 6 forward you pretty much have to do it IMO. Otherwise you hold onto him. He *may* be (I believe likely is) an equivalent player to Russell and Sekera while also being much younger and much cheaper.

  136. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I guess you put a much higher valuation on Brown than I do.

    Here’s the way I see it. Benning is a third pairing dman who could possibly hopefully move up to the second pair. Brown is a third line winger who could possibly hopefully move up to the top 6. I give Brown the edge because he’s already scored 20 in the top six.

  137. New Improved Darkness says:

    Terry Jones dropped a 73-word sentence/paragraph this morning.

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost on the secondary market and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating and regular season ticket customers based on the combination of economy and performance.

    Resolved: an old dog can drop the word “and” three times, and make a 73-word sentence seem largely unremarkable.

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost on the secondary market and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating and regular season ticket customers based on the combination of economy and performance.

    The little “and”s are not that hard for the human brain to reconstitute. Jones slyly buffers the big “and” with some well-judged repetition. Not only does the reader grab the exposed handles on the big “and”, but in doing so relaxes on the small “and”s—having already the gained a cheap inroad on lowering the shoulder into automatic contact, because the big “and” was adorned with the yellow practice jersey.

    ———

    I recently read about how millennials regard a period at the end of a text message as sounding harsh or insincere.

    This goes back all the way to 2013.

    * There’s a linguistic reason why using a period in a text message … — December 2017
    * Texting Mistakes: Adding Periods Is Bad Text Etiquette — November 2017
    * Why does using a period in a text message make you sound insincere? — July 2016
    * Scientists confirm: Ending your text messages with a full stop is … — December 2015
    * The Period, Our Simplest Punctuation Mark, Has Become a Sign of … — November 2013
    * Periods Are The New Way To Tell People You’re Mad At Them — November 2013

    I didn’t click into these articles, so all I had to work with was the Google title summary, which clearly sucks the hind banana. (Behind every ellipsis lies a hind banana, nursing a deformed runt.)

    Also, we can observe here that November/December are slow news months, with everyone already having purchased a brand new phone from the back to school sale (or from the back to school sale sale, two weeks later).

    These articles may also serve to remind people of friends and family who are too dunderheaded to buy themselves a new phone, providing a convenient excuse to head into the xmas season checking out all the new phone models—as if you could possibly buy one of these expensive and finicky brutes for anyone else (short of your spouse, but only then if you’re joined in harmony at the iPhone hip).

    ———

    * Amy Webb on Artificial Intelligence, Humanity, and the Big Nine — 11 March 2019

    If you’ve ever tried to go from Android to Apple or vice versa, it’s hard.

    Now we’re talking about all this other data—the ambient data that’s part of your daily life. All of it. Plus, we didn’t even talk about health and diagnostics and all of these other things that are all tied into these systems.

    And if those data sets become heritable, you know, we’re talking about a future situation in which your family could be an Apple family, or an Amazon family, or a Google family.

    And your children may decide they want to marry into other Google families, or other Apple families, because it’s too much of a pain in the neck to swap otherwise.

    I know that sounds like science fiction, but it’s very much within the realm of plausibility.

    Amy has more of a journalism background than a data science or futurology background, so this podcast did not impress me.

    But it just goes to show that serious people are out there musing on heritable hip conditions in seriously dry language.

    ———

    It’s funny I divide my sections with a loooong straight dash, because it actually functions as a sharp turn warning.

    I still recall Corvettes (subtype coveted) from the 1970s pulling into a local farm of the big highway north of Calgary trying to score some tax-free purple farm gas. While my farm friend gushed ermine, I pondered to myself: why do they even bother putting a steering wheel on these fiberglass muffin cups? At that point in time, Alberta Highway 2 was their ultimate natural habitat, sporting only the most gentle chicanes (though I sure you could still threaten to get up on two wheels on that doozy north of Bowden at their top rated speed).

    ———

    My writing style with the frequent brake squeal probably doesn’t much appeal to those recumbent, fiberglass muffin-cups of yore.

    * What’s So Damn Special About This Old Corvette? — April 2015

    GM built the engine to sit on a demonstration stand, all the better for people to ooh and aah.

    After it rolled off the assembly line, GM shipped it off to a specialty company that built attention-grabbing exhibits for commercial and industrial shows.

    Basically, the body was mounted on elevating rams that raised the exterior almost two feet off of the chassis, thus leaving the internal running gear fully exposed. Then the exterior of the engine, transmission, driveshaft and other mechanical bits were finished in bright red. Even the muffler’s exhaust chambers, section of the chassis, and the right front disc brake were exposed.

    After it was retired from the show circuit in 1965, this display Vette disappeared. Seriously, no one knew where it was until the mid-1990s when it was discovered, of all places, in South Africa.

    “Of all places?” Seriously? What part of “Africa” can’t you spell?

    * Mfonobong Nsehe: Luxury Cars Owned By African Dictator’s Son Auctioned For $4.1 Million — July 2013

    Clearly, the part of Africa the jacked Car Buzz Corvette enthusiast can’t spell is “Mfonobong Nsehe”.

    They say in writing school that the writer should identify an ideal reader. A jacked Corvette from 1965 with big fat knobbly tires—all the better to handle some thistle-patch off road—would at least be inside the ball park for yours truly.

    As it happens, the purple thistle has always been my favourite flower. My campaign platform would surely be: a purple thistle in every pot. In definitely not a slogan for all seasons, but in a political district where the tireless and overcrowded Oompa-Loompas have the franchise—is it possible?—I might even have shot.

    In the first published edition, the Oompa-Loompas were described as African pygmies, and were drawn this way in the original printed edition.

    After the announcement of a film adaptation sparked a statement from the NAACP expressing concern that the transportation of Oompa-Loompas to Wonka’s factory resembled slavery, Dahl found himself sympathizing with the NAACP’s concerns and published a revised edition.

    In this edition, as well as the subsequent sequel, the Oompa-Loompas were drawn as being white and appearing similar to hippies, and the references to Africa were deleted.

    ———

    Good lord, The Gods Must Be Crazy that Dahl’s original version made it over the bar in the first place.

    Surely any diminutive Twa bushman piloting a jacked Corvette—standing room only—on its maiden voyage—with big, fat knobby tires, front wheel drive and rear wheel steering would—would swoon to the image of a prickly thistle up the junk-in-the-trunk whistle of every Pol Pot.

    The Gods Must Be Crazy: driving in reverse

    ———

    To be resolved: Is the harsh, insincere, jerk-ass period at the end of a text message somewhat akin to a brake pedal that your short legs can no longer reach?

    To consider this question in full, we must return to Terry Jones, differently illuminated.

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost on the secondary market and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating and regular season ticket customers based on the combination of economy and performance.

    Here’s the game: locate every place in the sentence you can add a period and make a grammatically correct sentence, then classify these as good, bad, and ugly.

    * Nicholson will. — ugly
    * Nicholson will now divorce himself. — bad (sense distorted)
    * Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side. — good
    * Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took. — grammatical, but bad bad bad
    * Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took a bit of a hit. — mostly good
    * Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took a bit of a hit at the end. ­— ugly
    * Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season. — good
    * which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available. — bad and ugly
    * which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under. — so bad it verges on ungrammatical in a sophisticated grammar
    * which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost. — good
    * which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost on the secondary market. — good
    * which took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost on the secondary market and something bordering on crisis conditions. — not so good
    * and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end. — verging into bad
    * and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season. — good, but weird, because of the “end of season” repetition, which serves no structural purpose
    * and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met. — ugly
    * and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met heavy renewal resistance. — goodish
    * and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating. — “the” is inexplicable if you stop here; also “heavy resistance” from “premium seating” involves more than a smidgen of anthropomorphic license
    * and something bordering on crisis conditions at the end of the season as the Oilers organization met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating and regular season ticket customers. — good; “the” now helps to bridge the anthropomorphic seating from actual ticket customers
    * met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating and regular season ticket customers based on the combination of economy. — ugly
    * met heavy renewal resistance from the expiring three-year premium seating and regular season ticket customers based on the combination of economy and performance. — good; here “the” signifies a complete-ish list as opposed to a partial-ish list

    Humans mostly don’t even ponder the ugly. But the machines certainly do, making electronic NLP very hard, indeed.

    ———

    If I know my TJ—and I’m sure I do—that sentence was build on pure gut instinct from thirty years in the trenches. I don’t think TJ has ever found a parse tree in his stocking on the first day of xmas Y2K.

    ———

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side.

    In the truncated version, we see that the bare requirements of journalism were perfectly served by the first nine words.

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side which

    That sneaky “which” introduces a further sixty words of editorializing wrapped around some memory-refresher journalistic tidbits.

    But “which” itself is just a dull-man’s semicolon:

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side. The business side took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost …

    The semicolon—which I joyfully abuse—permits the writer to start the second sentence somewhere other than by regurgitating the last words out from the previous bit.

    In the oil patch, there was the old-fashioned drilling in a straight line (all the better to fuel your 1965 Corvette) and there’s the new-fangled drilling in any damn direction that tickles your fancy (not so useful to fuel your 1965 Corvette).

    ———

    But all is not well in Little China: if the end of text period is now harsh and insincere, the semicolon must now come across to millennials as Vincent “Vinny” Gambini formally attired in the Fauntleroy burgundy velvet suit (for the millennials who don’t track that reference, you might instead envision the purple Jesus bowling costume from The Big Lebowsky).

    ———

    It’s all about verbs. Main verbs, mostly. The period—and it’s effete partner in crime, the semicolon—is a typographic convention to indicate that the author still recalls—so very many words later—his or her actual goddamn main verb; not all these layabout subordinate verbs, the actual goddamn main verb. Period. Fuck you.

    ———

    Papa Hemingway was fond of the iceberg theory of writing: if you know your subject inside out to the very marrow of its bones, you don’t even need to mention your subject, it will simply shine through and become implicitly understood.

    The iceberg theory is entirely unlike the wicked “which”:

    Nicholson will now divorce himself from the business side. The business side took a bit of a hit at the end of last season with tickets available at well under original cost …

    Sure, you can replace on instance of “the business side” with the sly conjoining “which” and only seem half as dull, but I’m not at all convinced this is a big win.

    The only iceberg in the TJ lexicon is the iceberg the Oilers are now busy pulling out from between their buck teeth.

    So what does Papa do? He writes short sentences. With a new main verb in (almost) every scoop. Main verbs have a magic power to imply. He immediately runs into a budgetary problem: no matter how short your sentences, you can only get away with one fancy-ass main verbs in every 144 character sub-unit. So he has to use a lot of plain-ass main verbs, and as the main verb sets the tone for the rest of the sentence, most of his sentences come across as direct and unadorned.

    ———

    In short-form media, like Twitter, you’re basically operating at high contextual vacuum pressure all the damn time. Maybe this elevates for some to the sweet science of a perfect sparring partner; on public reputation, however, mostly this devolves into low shots to the junk.

    In short-form media, contextual vacuum pressure is confusion enough—and your junk is pretty much always exposed.

    So social media has evolved into a culture of the faint feint: a feint to the junk among friends is purely symbolic.

    ———

    But what about the writer for whom it’s feint all the way down? The writer who has no faint, and never tries? The writer for whom chaos is not incidental, but under new management, all the damn time?

    For this job—and this job alone—one requires the semicolon (other semicolons are cosmetic, and relatively dispensable).

    Precisely what would it mean for chaos to be under old management? Would that even be a possible thing?

    ———

    One of the few jobs I ever did around the house growing up was the spring Rototill. Mainly I just wanted to see if I could start that damn motor after collecting moisture for nine months. Many were the Rototills that I dismantled down to the cylinder gaskets. But then once it worked again—and it always did—it was pretty much de rigueur to show off my mechanical prowess by tilling a good half acre of deep, clumpy, black soil (we did not lack for large gardens).

    Hence I became a young master of the dark art of the tiller bar. This was a drag bar on a cotter pin that you could lower and raise. Somewhere—with luck—you would discover one setting anywhere in between a flubber-wheeled moon buggy and “boring” cadmium yellow submarine (because when you’re not Nemo, and you’re digging to the center of the earth, cadmium is corrosion resistant, and a welcome ballast material, too).

    The semicolon is not quite so versatile: it scores the sod with always the same scorpion tail.

    ———

    As it happens, my ideal reader is not actually a Twa bushman standing on a curvaceous fiberglass hood, piloting a jacked-up 1965 Corvette backwards through the Kalahari—though I do understand the confusion.

    No, my ideal reader is actually Bruce. Bruce has invested the long hours behind the pen and he probably also appreciates why I named myself—current incarnation—after the squeezed-light state incomprehensibly exploited in the LIGO gravity-wave telescope. Plus, I sometimes suspect we only share a single adrenal gland between the both of us, and we pass it back and forth, harshing on the Bettman point.

    And finally, Bruce is probably the only person out there who counted up all 19 places where TJ could have terminated that one long sentence with at least quasi-viable grammaticity. Bruce has always played the long game with pivot columns.

    ———

    I had an old friend visit last week, who thinks in even larger paragraphs than I do. My lemon tree was highly amused at our intense, highly charged interactions.

    It was like a tennis game where you hold serve for exactly as long as your supply of tennis balls holds out, so you have them tucked under your chin, inside your armpits, between the knees, between the ankles, etc. (Pocket size is regulated like Formula One engine displacement.) Service tends to start by unloading all the balls from your service armpit. Most of these are squibs, until your service arm is fully unencumbered.

    For all that, he only truly surprised me once: turns out, he’s an aficionado of Reddit’s “Am I the Asshole?”

    We’re neither of us social media people. 3000 words is a skirmish, not a fight. But he’s now found himself a short form he actually enjoys.

    ———

    I have one final comment about TJ’s substance, on the matter of loyalty. Good on the Oilers for finally erecting a formal partition within the management team to visibly sequester Kevin Lowe on the non-hockey operations side of the house.

    Mistakes, he made a few, but he’s a loyal guy, and he bleeds the Oil in every colour, old and new.

    Some people, who style themselves loyalists to the cause, made pretty free and easy with throwing Lowe under the bus. I’ve variously critiqued this attitude with elliptic posts off-centered on the themes of management by bad smell and management by taint.

    The weird thing about loyalty: the more obsession one becomes with loyalty, the easier it becomes to toss the next guy off the raft. Vladimir Lenin didn’t post a lot on Am I the Asshole, and there’s a good reason why. Nobody on planet earth needed a second opinion on whether Vlad was Bolshoi or Bolshevik.

    ———

    What most intrigues me about Am I the Asshole is this: that the format in self-evidently baked. And here’s how. If you can narrate your set piece without some tiny part of your brain conforming your narrative to the conventions of Reality TV, then you’re not the asshole, otherwise you are.

    Most people can’t air their personal laundry without a performance component. And that’s asshole city, as everyone knows.

    ———

    My posts are too long. They frequently include periods. And semicolons. Am I the asshole? You decide.

  138. GordieHoweHatTrick says:
  139. Ribs says:

    For Munny, if interested…. http://www.ryanmckennaonline.com/LT/LT%20Design1.png

    —-

    I’d post my own ode to Bruce, but I fear it would be too long.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca