Every morning sunrise to reach your eyes is another gamble won. If you feel like lost, you’ll end up found, so amigo, lay them raises down. Matt Cane’s free-agent AAV model has Brett Connolly signing a $3.5 million dollar deal and that’s my starting point for summer. Maybe Joakim Nygard is the answer, but I’m thinking it might be a fine idea to grab some bona fide just to make sure.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!
- New Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
- New Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
- Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
- Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
- Lowetide: Hard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
- Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
- Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
- Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
- Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
- Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
- Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
- Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
- Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
THE MONEY
I’d like to get an idea about the money, how much room to wheel Ken Holland has this summer. It looks like, he has a little. Below I’ve offloaded Kris Russell and Milan Lucic, plus added Brett Connolly, Loui Eriksson, Riley Sheahan and Brian Elliott while also hiding zero dollars in the minors. Let’s see what we can see.
There are holes on the roster. I’d prefer J-G Pageau in the Sheahan spot but this roster can’t afford it. Tyler Benson starts in the minors but if someone falters he can be recalled. I didn’t bury money, meaning Caleb Jones also begins in the minors. There is some room if the cap is $83 million.
DNB WITH KEN HOLLAND
I am going to borrow a quote from Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s Ken Holland Q. and A., but in doing it we’re all on the honor system that you must go and read it. If you’ve been contemplating getting a subscription, now would be the time. The draft coverage coming this month is incredible, you’ll get the DNB interview as a bonus.
When discussing the future, Holland told DNB “The core up front is McDavid and Draisaitl. They’re 22 and 23. Nurse is 24. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 26 and has a couple years to go on his contract. We’ve gotta build it. There are some younger players. I don’t think Bouchard’s that far away. I don’t think Samorukov’s that far away. I don’t think Benson’s that far away. Hopefully the player we pick at pick 8 isn’t that far away. Maybe he’s a couple years away.”
Music! Holland doesn’t know the entire system, so names like Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod aren’t included in the quote. However, the reason I quoted this part of the interview is that it speaks to his mindset. Along with a quote about Jesse Puljujarvi, Holland is (as my wife says) following the ‘start as you mean to go’ method of team building. Brick by brick.
Broberg at No. 8
I wrote about the draft this morning at The Athletic, with one of Edmonton’s options being Philip Broberg. A few people reached out and asked about the wisdom in drafting another (lefty) defenseman, thought I’d take a moment to offer my thoughts.
Taking the best player available is always wise, and a team should trust their board. I believe these things to be true. If Broberg is the top player on Edmonton’s list, then they should take that player. It would give the team an embarrassment of riches at the position, and eventually give the team enough depth at LHD to trade a piece for a need elsewhere.
If the Oilers see Broberg as a probable top pairing defender, perhaps in partnership with Evan Bouchard (whose skills are not similar, and would need a Broberg type to play with him), then selecting him has value.
My one worry: If you’re drafting a player No. 8 overall, he needs to be a substantial offensive force. I don’t see that in Broberg’s game, which is the main reason I have him No. 16 on my list. (Here).
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we take our places with bright shiny faces. TSN1260, we begin with Jonathan Willis from The Athletic, where we’ll talk about Zack Kassian, Sam Gagner and Jujhar Khaira. Can they play top-9 minutes next season for the Oilers? We’ll also chat with James Herbert from CBS Sports about the classic NBA Finals game last night, and discuss Women’s World Cup Soccer and Canada’s performance yesterday. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Bang on especially of all this talk of adding a substantial sweeter to trade Lucic to Van I have no doubt that Lucic would have more value to Van then eriksson would to Edmonton and some posters want to add or retain salary have they not been watching St.loo muscle there way to game 7 and the Caps as well last year. Why would we do a favour to Van who is in our goddamn division.
Just an anal note to those, like LT, using the wrong name: Matt Cane, who did the contract spreadsheets the last few summers, has been hired by, I believe, the devils. This summer’s is from the folks at Evolving Hockey , and I’m not sure I love it as much. The main difference to me is that Matt Cane’s model listed the dollars predicted by the length of the contract for each player, whereas this one just tells you the most-predicted length and the dollar amount for it.
That’s not what I said.
I give. You are 100% correct. Every third liner who plays with great centres can score 20 goals. Don’t know what I was thinking.
Mckenzie speculating there will be a good number of buyouts this off-season.
Buy out period starts 48 hours after the cup is awarded.
I’m guessing guys like Phaneuf, Perry, etc.
As for the Oilers, I can’t think of a single player where it makes sense to buy them out this off-season.
Only someone like Manning and they could bury him in the AHL for only a couple hundred grand more without the extra new term penalty.
Sekera? No way – don’t buy out legit NHL d-men (very possibly legit NHL 2nd pairing d-men) and add 2 years of term.
Lucic? Way too egregious.
Gagner? Ya, maybe, but, given organizational depth, he’s the “skill” we need in the bottom 6 – I am in favor of a trade to Ottawa for a very middling asset – Ottawa buys him out and the Oilers sign him at a third or half the current price.
I hope Holland doesn’t trade 1st rounders in the deal as Lowetide predicted as a possible option.
and if there is a major fall off (in addition to his current fall-off), oh well, its not like Lucic is adding anything to the lineup. As of right now, Eriksson is the more productive player with the broader skillset that can play in more situations. If he falls off a cliff, maybe he falls off to Lucic useless levels.
Eriksson will be 34 at the start of next season with three more seasons to go.
The cliff is close ahead.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
Drafting for need is something to consider in rounds 3-7 but, in the first round, draft the BPA, in my opinion.
Yes, we have a solid pool of LD prospects but that doesn’t mean it can’t grow. From accounts, the player at 8 is likely 2 full years away and who knows what the organizational depth will look like at that point. Russell and Sekera will be gone. We likely lost a d-man in the expansion draft. Maybe Samorukov doesn’t make it or needs more time.
If Broberg is the organization’s consensus BPA, and I personally have no idea, take him
Absolutely, 100%.
Sure, Jones is closer to the NHL but Lagesson is just as NHL ready (different skill set and doesn’t play the right side like Jones has, at least at the AHL level) but I think Lagesson will prove to be a solid 3LD this year (and I think he has potential to be a 22 minute 2LD within a few years).
We do? Do you want to present proof?
Lucic as net front is something that simply does not work.
Lets not forget that he has never been a PP producer except a complete one-off in year 1 of his contract where he doubled all of his numbers and metrics (and has since come back to historical norms).
He is awful in front of the net because he doesn’t stand in front of the net – he stands off to the side – doesn’t screen, doesn’t create chaos, generally not in a spot to grab pot a rebound or deflect a puck. He’s a terrible net front guy.
No way do we draft Broberg. We have plenty of defencemen between Edmonton and Bakersfield to sort out. WE NEED FORWARDS. Particularily forwards with skill and size (sorry Caulfield) Our forward lines should not depend on 3 centers for offense. Natural wingers are what we need. Wingers who can play with Mcjesus, Drai(if he wants his own line) and RNH.
If you are serious about a sweetener and the choice is Jones or Samorukov Jones is the one to go. Samorukov is better at defense better shot and has the size advantage. His skating is also on the same plane as Jones. You know what you have in Jones. I believe it is a safe bet that Samorukov’s ceiling is probably a top pairing D. Jones a top four D. Both have value but if you have to part with either or Jones is the one to move!
Of course we all know the suggestion that any third pair player can score with exceptional centres like Mathews and McDavid simply isn’t reality. Is Brown better than Chiasson? I would think he is. Probably not much better, but younger with more upside and maybe even cheaper. I think I have been quite explicit that I don’t think Brown is a superstar. I simply think it’s a fair trade for Benning and more realistic than options like Kappanen and Miller.
#1. NY-Jack Hughes
#2. NYR-Kaapo Kakko
#3. CHI-Bowen Byram
#4. COL-Alex Turcotte
#5. LA-Kirby Dach
#6. DET-Trevor Zegras
#7. BUF-Dylan Cozens
#8.EDM-Vasili Podkolzin,Philip Broberg,Matthew Boldy or Peyton Krebs
Yes, I read those posts. And you also acknowledged that maybe those numbers were not telling the whole story. The numbers have merit of course. But two NHL coaches have not felt comfortable playing him on the second pair. That has merit too. They have chosen to play him on the third pair. Hence he’s a third pairing dman. I’ve certainly acknowledged that he could possibly hopefully become a top four dman, but he certainly isn’t that yet. And on another team maybe he becomes a second pair damn. Just like if Brown plays for the Oil, he becomes a top six forward.
I wonder how hard Zadina would be to pry outta Detroit. He had an uneven year in Grand Rapids. It would take more than Puljujarvi. Right? Lets say Kenny H is shopping JP quietly and calls up Stevie Y. Nobody would know Zadina better than KH you’d think.
Jason Gregor had Mark Edwards on his show
https://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/audio/the-jason-gregor-show-june-11-hour-3-1.1320715
It’s a good thought. I absolutely agree in theory.
The only concern is that Nuge and JP have been not at all good together.
CF%
Together 45.4 (399 minutes)
Nuge w/o 49.3
Pulju w/o 51.7
FF%
Together 44.1
Nuge w/o 49.3
Pulju w/o 52.7
SF%
Together 43.1
Nuge w/o 50.4
Pulju w/o 51.2
GF%
Together 41.9
Nuge w/o 50.4
Pulju w/o 50.0
xGF%
Together 43.9
Nuge w/o 48.8
Pulju w/o 52.3
Now that I type it out, that may be the best argument I’ve seen for keeping those two the hell away from each other.
This is one thing where the eye test says it all. I haven’t watched every game, and I have also seen no team try to run around on the Oilers, Tkachuk was being a Tkachuk, and didn’t the next game.
Brownlee claims Lucic ‘had a word’. From everything I know, have read and seen, including coaches and players from opponents saying that if you went after the Oilers in the past they’d stop playing, I believe it.
Lucic can’t stop kamikaze events, but team efforts of trying to run players won’t fly when he, or someone of significant gravity, is around and acting.
I still remember him fronting Getzlaf in the playoffs and G backing down.
When did that clown ever back down from an Oiler before?
As LT says, balance. A team can’t be too big, too small, to weak, too tough. A balance of players that can play NHL hockey in their role.
You can’t afford too much skill that produces goals/points in a capped league. You can’t be a consistent contender without top end players.
If you have top end players the job really is much easier.
Looking at Eriksson’s Boston career 13-14 to 15-16, he was also exceptional on the PK, playing 1:39 a game (I can’t do more than 3 year chunks on NST, though this neatly catches his last 2 teams in 3 yr blocks).
Among 137 players with >250 PK minutes from 13-14 to 15-16, Eriksson ranked:
CA 15th
FA 8th
SA 8th
GA 9th
xGA 7th
SCA 7th
HDSCA 8th
That’s actually really remarkable. Eriksson was among the top 20 NHLers in every defensive PK metric during his 3 yr Boston career, as well as his 3 yrs Vancouver career.
I think you gotta call him an elite penalty killer. Basically zero doubt.
Ken, make it so.
I was in the “for” camp on a Lucic/Eriksson trade before this due to one less year, but I’m a very strong positive seeing these PK numbers, as well the tough competition he’s faced.
Considering the lack of palatable options, I’d be leaning to just keeping Lucic for the 4th line, maybe net-front on PP2.
Does he actually ‘quiet the game down’? Who knows. It’s impossible to measure what doesn’t happen. But it’s not a completely worthless intangible.
Presumably, as not the top pairing guy, most his PK time has been against the second units but, still. His PK usage is reason enough to make the trade. I will take that over leading the league in offensive zone hits when the play is turning the other way…..
I noticed he wasn’t used a lot last year as well so I had a look slightly further back. He’s averaged 1:32 per game on the PK since he’s been in Vancouver. Over that span (3 seasons), 119 forwards have spent >250 min on the PK (~1 min per game). In rates/60 Eriksson ranked thusly:
CA 4th
FA 3rd
SA 5th
GA 16th
xGA 3rd
SCA 13th
HDCA 4th
This is among the 119 most used PK forwards. On the 8th worst PK team in the league over the same span (though most of their metrics other than GA were slightly above average).
I have no idea why Vancouver didn’t use him more on the PK, but it appears he’s a very good to elite penalty killer.
I know boxcars don’t tell the full story, but I don’t see any red flags in his numbers from this year. By all accounts he’s also an excellent skater (as you’re well aware).
For comparison, Broberg and other high end Swedish defenders drafted in the top 15 from (relatively) recent years. Most played their draft year in the SuperElit (U20 league), the U18 World Jrs and a mens league (either SHL or the 2nd league Allvenskan).
Broberg (18-19)
SuperElit—- 8-2-6-8
Allvenskan 41-2-7-9
WJC-18—– 7-2-4-6
Dahlin 2018 1st overall, not comparable
Boquist 2018 8th
SuperElit— 25-14-10-24
SHL——— 15-0-1-1
Allvenskan- 7-0-2-2
WJC-18—– 6-3-3-6
Brannstrom 2017 15th
SuperElit— 19-9-14-23
SHL———- 35-1-5-6
WJC-18—– 7-2-3-5
Lindholm 2012 6th
SuperElit—- 28-5-12-17
Allvenskan– 20-1-3-4
WJC-18—— 6-0-4-4
A Larsson 2011 4th, not comparable (SHL and WJC-20)
Hedman 2009 1st, not comparable
OE Larsson 2009 6th
Allvenskan– 39-3-14-17
WJC-18—— 6-2-6-8
Karlsson 2008 15th
SuperElit— 38-13-24-37
SHL———- 7-1-0-1
WJC-18—– 6-0-7-7
He compares pretty damn favourably with these players, for what it’s worth.
Brown scored 20 playing with one of the best 5v5 centers in the world and with significant PP time on one of the best PP’s in the league… in fact he was dropped from the PP that season due to his lack of scoring despite the phenomenal opportunities he was given. Pretty much any 3rd liner in the league today could score 20 if gifted a similar opportunity. Look no further than Chiasson for evidence of that.
Brown is a cap dump for the Leafs. You don’t give up a roster player for such an acquisition.
I posted numbers yesterday proving that Benning did well when paired with either of the top 2 LHD Edmonton has employed over the past 3 years. Too bad you choose to ignore hard evidence, but it’s telling.
on a PK that was 11th in the league – not dead last.
Pretty sure we could use him on the PK.
His metrics on the PK (GA/60, SA/60) having also been very good over the years and really good last year.
I’m quite certain he’s a more effective penalty killer than Lucic and would be among the Oilers regulars given current roster.
The hitting Lucic does these days does not help win hockey games.
Of course, Samorukov is an egregious over-pay but I don’t see anything positive Lucic is doing on the ice – he had, what 2 games last year where his “hitting” helped lead to a win?
Brown scored 20 as a rookie and 14 as a sophomore. He sucked last year with only 8. And while P/60 is a valuable stat, it should not be used in isolation. At some point we should value actual goals scored.
You don’t have to like him. That’s fine. I think I’m closer to Benning’s actual real trade value though, rather than suggestions like JT Miller and Kappanen. I would also suggest that Benning hasn’t proven he can slide up the order. I’m not saying Brown is a fantastic player, but neither is Benning. They are both legit, useful and unspectacular NHL players.
Considering Holland has mentioned Samorukov as a material prospect who is coming at least 4 times, I can’t imagine him doing this.
He played 1:11 pk per game and was the 6th most used forward last year.
His contribution to the pk is overrated
If I understand correctly the reason Eriksson is unhappy in Vancouver is because he has been asked to play those defensive minutes and he doesn’t like it so I don’t know that the things you list as advantages would necessarily be strong points in favour of acquiring him. I think he sees himself as an offensive player first and foremost according the comment in the link.
https://www.tsn.ca/vancouver-canucks-gm-jim-benning-set-to-meet-with-loui-eriksson-1.1320356
Tanev took eight faceoffs last year. Adam Lowry or Andrew Copp are the fellows who might be able to help on a complementary line at center.
Lucic hits a lot and he can hurt you if he wants there isn’t to many in the league that can do that. No way Holland is adding a all tool potential 1-2 goldmine late draft pick as a sweetener. Everybody and their dog have been raving about Sami especially in the visible to all great playoff run.
I think you’re bang on. McLellan said the same. I haven’t watched much video of Jesse, but I saw the same thing, he liked to carry the puck and carry the flow of attack.
I saw in the bigs the same thing defensively. He wants to control play, get after the puck
However the previous regime wanted him to be a power winger, use his size on the boards and be a player he’s not currently.
Which is why I have said he might be better at centre where he can skate and roam more. IF he’s healthy now, given I see defensive responsibility in his game and a work ethic on the puck, and he’s a big right shot, I’d try it.
I’m not comparing, but when Sather moved Messier to C he wasn’t exactly a polished player. Partly need, partly that Slats saw a player that wanted to dominate the ice and the play.
I guess it’s a bit better with that salary retention but still not enough to trade Samorukov in that deal. Like most other posters, I think a draft pick or C prospect would be adequate. Green doesn’t care for Eriksson and they want him gone. Lucic is ‘better in the room’ so I think the Oilers have a bit of leverage in such a negotiation.
In my estimation, they don’t like to play with JP because he doesn’t play a give-and-go style like the majority of skill forwards do. He’s too in love with that long range wrist shot. Players hate it when guys do that. It makes you feel like you can’t pass to that person because the play will die.
Is JP dynamic enough to drive a line? To this point, he has not shown that ability. He needs a solid, consistent,veteran center and mentor.
3 years younger, league top meanie, and not a public whiner is worth a year of contract. Or more.
If Holland trades Samurokov (likely there best D prospect) to get rid of Lucic (who’s only issue has been scoring points, not getting his head caved in on possession) we’ll know there is no hope for this org.
The only logical response I could make is to light my underwear on fire and put my kilt back on.
I wouldn’t add more than a mid round pick either but Eriksson has been the better player over the last few years – he’s been more productive, he plays on the PK (and does a solid job), has taken on high defensive zone starts and played material minutes against elites.
The PK alone is significant.
Still wouldn’t give up more than a middling sweetener.
Maybe the Broberg chatter is something we are not used to hearing. Instead of blabbing all of your plans in stream of consciousness straight off the limbic brain media avails, there is a little slight of hand going on.
It’s actually Somorukov for 3years of some cap relief if VAN retains salary, plus a full year shorter deal on Eriksson, on a way less difficult contract to buy out. I know it’s a gamble, but I’m not moving Bouch or Jones, and I don’t think Bear gets a deal done. Somorukov might be just as likely to be Griffin Reinhart. or Colton Teubert as he is to be a stud.
If I move Lucic for Erickson I do it straight up. Each contract is the same cap hit and neither can be bought out. Canucks get the one year penalty for length but they get the guy that’s 3years younger.
I would not add more than a mid round pick
Samorukov is too dear a price to pay in that scenario – he may never play an NHL game but the potential he has makes him too important of a piece.
Also, yes, Vancouver has cap room now, however, before those contracts are up the new contracts for Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser (this year) will be due and those of some other youngsters that could prove pricy.
That scenario has $7.5M for Lucic – they may want Samorukov given that is material but they aren’t getting him (at least in my mind).
Holland has mentioned Samorukov like 5 times publicly – he seems to acknowledge the potential that is there.
Question to the masses..
With the talk of how McD and or Drai not wanting to play with JP, do you feel that it is because JP prefers to be the one carrying the puck? Do you feel that JP could be a “driver” of a line?
The reason why I ask is because I was thinking back to his World Jr Championship and how he played there.
Is it fair to say that Nuge isn’t a driver…. Could you put JP with Nuge and another like a JT Miller (that’s for you Godot10) and say……… have at it??
Sign him on a show me contract, place him with savy vets and ???????????
lol just a thought 🙂
Whoa – that’s a hard no on Samorukov – that is way too material of an asset. Lets talk about Ethan Bear in that spot…
On point 1, yes, well, Lucic has also expressed the same in the past (and rumored to have again recently) and, frankly, Eriksson has been more productive for the last 2 years (and all 3 years at evens), plays on the PK (and seems solid in the role) and takes on a material amount of minutes against elites.
On point 2, absolutely, and, given how he was playing after he settled in last year, I have little doubt that he will if (a) the organization assigns him near the end of camp and forgets about him until well after the turn of the calendar (don’t call him up after 10 points in 11 games) and (b) he stays healthy (PLEASE)!
Nearly 14% ins his career. If you take out his 19YO season where he was rushed. nearly 15.5% shooter.
Could absolutely serve to shoot more, but seems to be a bonafide sniper when he does.