Tangerine Dream’s Stratosfear

Every morning sunrise to reach your eyes is another gamble won. If you feel like lost, you’ll end up found, so amigo, lay them raises down. Matt Cane’s free-agent AAV model has Brett Connolly signing a $3.5 million dollar deal and that’s my starting point for summer. Maybe Joakim Nygard is the answer, but I’m thinking it might be a fine idea to grab some bona fide just to make sure.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
  • New Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
  • New Daniel Nugent-BowmanQ&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
  • Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.

THE MONEY

I’d like to get an idea about the money, how much room to wheel Ken Holland has this summer. It looks like, he has a little. Below I’ve offloaded Kris Russell and Milan Lucic, plus added Brett Connolly, Loui Eriksson, Riley Sheahan and Brian Elliott while also hiding zero dollars in the minors. Let’s see what we can see.

There are holes on the roster. I’d prefer J-G Pageau in the Sheahan spot but this roster can’t afford it. Tyler Benson starts in the minors but if someone falters he can be recalled. I didn’t bury money, meaning Caleb Jones also begins in the minors. There is some room if the cap is $83 million.

DNB WITH KEN HOLLAND

I am going to borrow a quote from Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s Ken Holland Q. and A., but in doing it we’re all on the honor system that you must go and read it. If you’ve been contemplating getting a subscription, now would be the time. The draft coverage coming this month is incredible, you’ll get the DNB interview as a bonus.

When discussing the future, Holland told DNB “The core up front is McDavid and Draisaitl. They’re 22 and 23. Nurse is 24. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 26 and has a couple years to go on his contract. We’ve gotta build it. There are some younger players. I don’t think Bouchard’s that far away. I don’t think Samorukov’s that far away. I don’t think Benson’s that far away. Hopefully the player we pick at pick 8 isn’t that far away. Maybe he’s a couple years away.”

Music! Holland doesn’t know the entire system, so names like Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod aren’t included in the quote. However, the reason I quoted this part of the interview is that it speaks to his mindset. Along with a quote about Jesse Puljujarvi, Holland is (as my wife says) following the ‘start as you mean to go’ method of team building. Brick by brick.

Broberg at No. 8

I wrote about the draft this morning at The Athletic, with one of Edmonton’s options being Philip Broberg. A few people reached out and asked about the wisdom in drafting another (lefty) defenseman, thought I’d take a moment to offer my thoughts.

Taking the best player available is always wise, and a team should trust their board. I believe these things to be true. If Broberg is the top player on Edmonton’s list, then they should take that player. It would give the team an embarrassment of riches at the position, and eventually give the team enough depth at LHD to trade a piece for a need elsewhere.

If the Oilers see Broberg as a probable top pairing defender, perhaps in partnership with Evan Bouchard (whose skills are not similar, and would need a Broberg type to play with him), then selecting him has value.

My one worry: If you’re drafting a player No. 8 overall, he needs to be a substantial offensive force. I don’t see that in Broberg’s game, which is the main reason I have him No. 16 on my list. (Here).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we take our places with bright shiny faces. TSN1260, we begin with Jonathan Willis from The Athletic, where we’ll talk about Zack Kassian, Sam Gagner and Jujhar Khaira. Can they play top-9 minutes next season for the Oilers? We’ll also chat with James Herbert from CBS Sports about the classic NBA Finals game last night, and discuss Women’s World Cup Soccer and Canada’s performance yesterday. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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104 Responses to "Tangerine Dream’s Stratosfear"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Will you have Mark Edwards of Hockey Prospect on your show? I know he has an opinion regarding Broberg and others.

  2. who says:

    Do you find it interesting that Holland doesn’t mention Klefbom or Larsson as part of the core?
    Or am I reading too much into 1 quote?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Will you have Mark Edwards of Hockey Prospect on your show? I know he has an opinion regarding Broberg and others.

    I am hoping to, his schedule gets crazy this time of year.

  4. Pouzar says:

    In my 3 mins of YouTube Broberg viewing I like the speed. Not sold on his puck handling abilities. Looks choppy. That’s as much draft analysis as I’ve done in years. I will leave it for the experts now.

  5. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks.

    Mark Edwards talks about Broberg here at the 8 minute mark if you’re interested

    https://soundcloud.com/user-334512920/hpr-season-14-nhl-draft-3

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is essentially $4M to add 2 forwards without disposing of cap (after signing a $2.5M 1B goalie and re-signing Jesse and Khaira to a combined $2.75M give or take).

    We can make it $5M by burying Manning, however, then there needs to be a third addition for that – 1D and 2F for the $5M.

    In order to make any material acquisition there needs to be cap out.

    Russell and Lucic the primary targets for disposition – of course, the Lucic for Ericksson trade, which helps the PK and likely makes the team better given his deployment against elites, better production over the last two years (and three year as evens) and PK, doesn’t help the cap this coming year.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    As has been suggested on this blog before, I’m kinda betting on board with an Oscar Lindberg acquisition for a 3C filler.

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    I’m not sure that Broberg won’t be a substantial offensive force. I’m pretty sure I read that he is a converted center and has very good instincts in the offensive zone. Pronman had this to say: “… I gave his hockey sense an above-average grade because I think he has sneaky good instincts.”

    He’s very good at o-zone entries due to his phenomenal skating abilities too. And he’s still just 17.

  9. bwar says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think that Khaira and Puljujarvi get signed for much closer to what their qualifying offers would be. Both are coming off bad years and won’t be negotiating from a position of strength. If we can sign them for closer to the $2M mark combined I think that helps to open up more options via free agency.

  10. bwar says:

    Does anyone know when we will find out the actual number for the salary cap?

  11. Dustylegnd says:

    I was very encouraged with the Holland interview

    He wont make any radical moves to try and expedite the probability of making the playoffs

    He understands the magnitude of the mess he has inherited, he is very clear that the Oiler’s are not 1 or 2 or 3 players away from competing for the Cup

    He has the experience and the security to draft and develop, I honestly believe as long as they have a competitive roster with 2 years of McDavid’s contract expiring, Holland will consider his mission accomplished

    He is going to give KG every chance to take the next step or fail, but he is going to pour on the responsibility and hold Keith accountable….seems like a fair deal to me

    He acknowledges free agents have little desire to play in Edmonton for a plethora of reasons, if Edmonton wants to sign free agents they will have to hand out uncomfortable term…please see draft and develop

    I will have total confidence in Holland after he moves Howson along post draft….will also be interesting to see what he does with Green…maybe Green is really good I don’t know…but man the Oiler’s need to dominate in this draft

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I’m not sure that Broberg won’t be a substantial offensive force. I’m pretty sure I read that he is a converted center and has very good instincts in the offensive zone. Pronman had this to say: “… I gave his hockey sense an above-average grade because I think he has sneaky good instincts.”

    He’s very good at o-zone entries due to his phenomenal skating abilities too. And he’s still just 17.

    https://theathletic.com/992207/2019/06/04/pronman-what-to-expect-by-drafting-defenseman-philip-broberg/

  13. Coiler says:

    I don’t get the sense that Holland makes any moves out of desperation or the need to put in a ‘quick fix’. I think, if anything, Vancouver should be adding in a sweetener to offload Eriksson. After all, he’s the one who has gone public about wanting out of Mr Green’s doghouse.

    Insofar as Broberg is concerned, he seems like an enticing prospect. But he’s only 17 so who the hell knows what he’ll be when he’s 27. Since the Oilers are working from a position of relative strength in that position, I would sooner take a skilled winger. Then again, if the notion of the league going the way of the offer sheet comes to fruition, then the Oilers (and all other teams for that matter) might find themselves dealing from a position of weakness in the coming years.

    I think the Oilers need lady luck to start smiling on them again in terms of the development of their players. Yamamoto needs a monster year in the AHL. No ifs, ands, or buts.

  14. digger50 says:

    Based on my limited knowledge but just viewing highlight reels, I’m really liking Zegras.

    He looks like fantastic skill and creativity. I think Colefield got half his goals from Hugh’s and Zegra’s setting up tap in goals.

    He’s going to be good.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    The Broberg talk reminds me of last year’s Ty Smith talk.

    If someone drops, they will take them over Broberg but he’s likely their #8 guy.

  16. godot10 says:

    Broberg is a project. High upside potential but it will take time. I don’t trust the OIlers with these types of players. They have failed over and over again. They will want to bring him over and put him in Bakersfield.

    Broberg “has” to (i.e. should) be left in Sweden for at least two more years, or it would be a mistake to draft him.

    Please let Cozens be there at #8OV. Please.

  17. Greenberg says:

    For those fearful of a Broberg pick at No. 8, please go see Pronman’s examination of the prospect (at The Athletic) and watch every video therein. Then you understand what the shouting might be about. In five years when Broberg is on the ice, the other team will keep two men back in their own zone at all times waiting for his arrival. This guy does nothing but zoom.

    Here’s why The Athletic is important. It’s all over North America. When I want to know what is happening with one of my teams (NFL, NBA, MLB), I just go to The Athletic’s core of writers in that city. Great stuff. Katie Strang’s coverage of a sex scandal at Michigan State University (gymnastic team) was brilliant journalism.

    While I regret the disappearance of newspapers as a force in our society, The Athletic has taken up the slack in the sports field wherever it has appeared.

  18. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    If Broberg is the best guy on their list they should pick him. A cupboard fill of Defencemen never hurt Nashville. Whoever they pick is not gonna help this year, so take the best player available and later you have a strength to trade from. We haven’t seen that since forever.

  19. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I’d be open to throwing in a sweetener for Erikson if VAN was willing to retain some salary ($1M or more).

    Lucic+Somorukov for Erikson at $4.5M for 3 more years?

    You’d at least be getting warmer in my eyes. Tippet might be able to get more out of Erikson than Green did. And you could disagree with Somorukov, but there’s definitely gonna be a price attached to trading away Lucic.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Coiler:

    I think the Oilers need lady luck to start smiling on them again in terms of the development of their players.Yamamoto needs a monster year in the AHL. No ifs, ands, or buts.

    – Who is a potential top-6 winger this year (or by end of year):

    1) Pool: play him with RNH for 30 games: I think he could be
    2) Kailer: Needs a half-year in AHL, then maybe he gets to play with skill, so maybe by end of year?
    3) Benson: Probably in bigs based on AHL and openings but top6: that’s the luck your talkin’ ’bout
    4) Nygard: now that would be really lucky if a SHL’er came in as top6: nope
    5) Marody: Nope
    6) Chiasson: if he plays with McD
    7) Kassian: see above

    – Healthy D will enhance scoring a lot, as our best scoring was when all of Klef-Larsson-Sek-Nurse were playing last 20 games: that’s the luck your talkin’ ’bout

    – So maybe a few of 1-7 hit, get another draft and develop, good D = good scoring (this point is really missed in analysis), and if some of Bouchard, Jones, Samuko, Persson, Laggs are good to go by end of year, there is a lot of cap room..

    – So don’t pot commit this year: and if Holland is telling the truth and his goal is to be in the playoff hunt: I’m buying his plan. Which means all the fantasy teams I read about are not happening

    – Whale hunting, or anchor sabotaging by buying out actual NHL players, or thinking we are going to steal trades isn’t the route. Let it grow: and get some of Coiler’s lady luck going

  21. Side says:

    godot10:
    Broberg is a project.High upside potential but it will take time.I don’t trust the OIlers with these types of players.They have failed over and over again.They will want to bring him over and put him in Bakersfield.

    Broberg “has” to (i.e. should) be left in Sweden for at least two more years, or it would be a mistake to draft him.

    Please let Cozens be there at #8OV.Please.

    Is the Oilers logo making the decision on how to handle these players? Trust with how prospects are handled should begin and end with the person making these decisions. Isn’t Holland known for over-ripening prospects and isn’t he good with developing Europeans?

  22. Truth says:

    I hope I’m not overstepping the boundaries here. A colleague of yours at The Athletic, LT, had a note from an NHL scout comparing Broberg to Brady Skjei. Also noting that he would likely be a 3-4 rather than a 1-2, attributable to (lack of) hockey sense. I understand this is only one scout’s opinion, but as you mention this doesn’t bode well for offensive ability. There is a lot of reading on the draft nowadays, and numerous pundits mention Broberg’s U18 tourney as the big reason for his climb in the rankings. For the same reason many people suggest to disregard one bad tourney for a player’s full projection, I hope the Oilers are measured about one good tourney for Broberg.

    I just hope Zegras falls to the Oilers. They are in such desperate need of skill in their system he would be the perfect addition, beyond some sort of amazing drop of Turcotte or Byram.

  23. Reja says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    If Broberg is the best guy on their list they should pick him.A cupboard fill of Defencemen never hurt Nashville.Whoever they pick is not gonna help this year, so take the best player available and later you have a strength to trade from.We haven’t seen that since forever.

    Oilers need forward talent can’t see why they would be in on Broberg who’s a stretch pick at 8 when this draft is all about the forward talent in the first half exception being Bowen unlike last years draft where the D ruled

  24. Truth says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d be open to throwing in a sweetener for Erikson if VAN was willing to retain some salary ($1M or more).

    Lucic+Somorukov for Erikson at $4.5M for 3 more years?

    You’d at least be getting warmer in my eyes.Tippet might be able to get more out of Erikson than Green did.And you could disagree with Somorukov, but there’s definitely gonna be a price attached to trading away Lucic.

    Yuck. I’d say 4th round pick or worse as max compensation for a Lucic / Eriksson trade. Eriksson is older and Vancouver is just as sick of seeing his incompetence as the Oilers are of Lucic. Plus I’d be arguing Lucic will be happier (and play better) at home, and they need to protect their young stars. Pettersson was hurt due to some pretty egregious abuse last year. Who’s to say having Lucic will do anything at all, but that should be Holland’s pitch.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Greenberg:

    While I regret the disappearance of newspapers as a force in our society, The Athletic has taken up the slack in the sports field wherever it has appeared.

    – I hope I’m wrong, but I worry about the Athletic. I don’t like seeing the promotions for subscriptions that are lower than what existing subs pay

    – They do a great job: it’s an awesome collection of talent. Sport is the one thing that spans across beliefs and politics. Buzzfeed and Vice: two other great platforms, trying to be different, and doing great stuff: they are in trouble

    – So much “news” now is simply clicking on videos. Articulate content is always going to be important to those who like content , but there are less and less of it

    – NYT: I pay for its subscription, and it’s best in business: but while they grow, the newspaper business continues to die: they attract those from many cities whose papers are now either gone, or just not filled with good content. I had a copy of the Globe and Mail this weekend for some reason: its content is a fraction of what it was 5 years ago, and 3 x the price

    – Best case scenario for The Athletic or to end up like Vox, or The Bleacher Report: and get bought by an entertainment/news conglomerate

    – That’s why this site is fantastic: LT’s not banking it here, and the content isnt’ as rich as it was before he parlayed this into the Athletic and his Radio stuff (good for LT by the way: his content got him noticed, and got paid): but the content here is still better than anything else about the Oil, not to mention all the thoughtful comments on everything under the sun by the poster community

  26. Truth says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I hope I’m wrong, but I worry about the Athletic.I don’t like seeing the promotions for subscriptions that are lower than what existing subs pay

    It works for furniture and electronics stores. Why not with digital media?

    I’ve been waiting for the big mid-summer promotion, “The Athletic: Going Out of Business Sale! Everything Must Go!”

    In all seriousness, I don’t understand the consistent “sale” prices they offer. Are people still that gullible? Can we not just agree the “sale” price is just the actual promotion price and they plan on jacking it up (hopefully without us noticing) upon expiry of the initial term, a la practically all service providers.

  27. defmn says:

    Pretty sure this is because I am missing something but is there a reason why goalies aren’t listed on Matt Cane’s free-agent AAV model?

  28. Yeti says:

    defmn:
    Pretty sure this is because I am missing something but is there a reason why goalies aren’t listed on Matt Cane’s free-agent AAV model?

    I think the technical answer is because goalies are voodoo.

  29. texmex says:

    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    Jun 11
    The #Oilers have signed forward Patrick Russell to a one-year contract extension. The 26-year-old Denmark native compiled 40 points (18 goals, 22 assists) in 51 games with the
    @Condors
    last season, in addition to suiting up for his first six
    @NHL
    games.

  30. defmn says:

    Yeti: I think the technical answer is because goalies are voodoo.

    I should have known that was the answer. 😉

  31. doritogrande says:

    It’s going to depend on how the draft board falls, but I don’t particularly like Broberg at 8. Definitely don’t like Broberg at 8 if one of Turcotte, Zegras, Cozens, Dach (in that order) is available. If, however they’re all gone and we’re left with a choice of Caulfield/Boldy, I could get behind a trade down to pick up another asset (2nd rounder is my target, it’s a deep draft in the 2nd round from what I’ve read), and hope that Broberg is available at say 12-15. If it plays out that he’s not available if we decide to trade down, you move on, and you trust your board.

  32. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Truth: Yuck.I’d say 4th round pick or worse as max compensation for a Lucic / Eriksson trade.Eriksson is older and Vancouver is just as sick of seeing his incompetence as the Oilers are of Lucic.Plus I’d be arguing Lucic will be happier (and play better) at home, and they need to protect their young stars.Pettersson was hurt due to some pretty egregious abuse last year.Who’s to say having Lucic will do anything at all, but that should be Holland’s pitch.

    Even with them retaining? Lucic’s contract is Houdini-proof! If they are looking for a sweetener, why not make it a decent one in exchange for them retaining some salary? VAN has no cap issues at all, so they’re basically adding a good prospect for cash. We’ve got probably 4-5 decent bets placed on prospect defencemen right now (Bouch, Jones, Bear, Persson, Laggesson, Day). If that’s all it costs to get rid of the Lucic contract, I’d at least consider it. Vancouver might be the only place he’ll agree to go to. And we’d have to protect him in the expansion draft if he’s still here then. That’s protecting him so you can still have him for the last 2 years left on his deal.

  33. Jaxon says:

    Using Matt Cane’s model with an eye for getting faster, can the Oilers acquire any of the UFAs?

    Karlsson – 8 @ $9.90M
    Duchene – 6 @ $6.92M
    Dzingel – 4 @ $4.33M
    B Tanev – 4 @ $2.79M
    Hagelin – 3 @ $2.47M
    Paajarvi – 3 @ $1.95M

    They’d have to dump a lot of salary to make some of these happen. Could they dump half of Lucic, and most of Sekera, Russell, and Gagner?

    Extreme.

  34. Material Elvis says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d be open to throwing in a sweetener for Erikson if VAN was willing to retain some salary ($1M or more).

    Lucic+Somorukov for Erikson at $4.5M for 3 more years?

    You’d at least be getting warmer in my eyes.Tippet might be able to get more out of Erikson than Green did.And you could disagree with Somorukov, but there’s definitely gonna be a price attached to trading away Lucic.

    If you are sending them Samorukov, then I don’t want any one back. Eriksson and Lucic have the same negative value. Your proposal essentially sends Samorukov to the Nucks for one year of Lucic cap relief — that is a massive overpay.

  35. Material Elvis says:

    Greenberg:
    For those fearful of a Broberg pick at No. 8, please go see Pronman’s examination of the prospect (at The Athletic) and watch every video therein. Then you understand what the shouting might be about. In five years when Broberg is on the ice, the other team will keep two men back in their own zone at all times waiting for his arrival. This guy does nothing but zoom.

    How effective are defensemen who carry the puck into the offensive zone? We see Nurse try that move all the time and it is not very effective at all. Quick, accurate outlet passing to the forwards is the type of defensemen that the team should be trying to procure, not puck rushers. That said, if Broberg had great hands or offensive vision then I would be interested, but those are his weaknesses (along with an average shot). He’s more like a non-physical Nurse or a Noah Hanifin.

  36. Material Elvis says:

    Jaxon:
    Using Matt Cane’s model with an eye for getting faster, can the Oilers acquire any of the UFAs?

    Karlsson– 8 @ $9.90M
    Duchene– 6 @ $6.92M
    Dzingel– 4 @ $4.33M
    B Tanev – 4 @ $2.79M
    Hagelin– 3 @ $2.47M
    Paajarvi – 3 @ $1.95M

    They’d have to dump a lot of salary to make some of these happen. Could they dump half of Lucic, and most of Sekera, Russell, and Gagner?

    Extreme.

    Yes to Tanev. Maybe to Dzingel and Paajarvi. No to the others. They need to trade some of that nasty cap hit first.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Dustylegnd:
    I was very encouraged with the Holland interview

    He wont make any radical moves to try and expedite the probability of making the playoffs

    He understands the magnitude of the mess he has inherited, he is very clear that the Oiler’s are not 1 or 2 or 3 players away from competing for the Cup

    He has the experience and the security to draft and develop, I honestly believe as long as they have a competitive roster with 2 years of McDavid’s contract expiring, Holland will consider his mission accomplished

    He is going to give KG every chance to take the next step or fail, but he is going to pour on the responsibility and hold Keith accountable….seems like a fair deal to me

    He acknowledges free agents have little desire to play in Edmonton for a plethora of reasons, if Edmonton wants to sign free agents they will have to hand out uncomfortable term…please see draft and develop

    I will have total confidence in Holland after he moves Howson along post draft….will also be interesting to see what he does with Green…maybe Green is really good I don’t know…but man the Oiler’s need to dominate in this draft

    A quote from one of my favourite authors, Terry Pratchett:

    If you want to sell the sausage, you have to know how to sell the sizzle……but, and this is important, at some point, someone is going to ask you to produce the actual sausage.

    Terry uses fantasy to parody real life. In this instance, the context was a conman blackmailed into resurrecting the Post Office.

    If Ken is selling Connor et al the fact they’re young with lots of time, at some point, he’ll *ahem* have to show some sausage.

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Even with them retaining?Lucic’s contract is Houdini-proof!If they are looking for a sweetener, why not make it a decent one in exchange for them retaining some salary?VAN has no cap issues at all, so they’re basically adding a good prospect for cash.We’ve got probably 4-5 decent bets placed on prospect defencemen right now (Bouch, Jones, Bear, Persson, Laggesson, Day).If that’s all it costs to get rid of the Lucic contract, I’d at least consider it.Vancouver might be the only place he’ll agree to go to.And we’d have to protect him in the expansion draft if he’s still here then.That’s protecting him so you can still have him for the last 2 years left on his deal.

    There’s no way I would include Samorukov in any trade, let alone a salary dump. I’d rather give them a draft pick and I wouldn’t do that either. Also, I would think Lucic would waive his NTC clause to virtually any team in the league, maybe not Ottawa. Doesn’t seem like he’s having any fun playing here. If it got to the point that he was somehow on the roster come expansion draft, there’s less than a zero chance they don’t but him out.

  39. Truth says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

    I did miss your mention of the Canucks retaining salary. I still think Samarukov is too much. Given what he’s shown recently, Samarukov might even be the best of the bunch you’ve mentioned. Someone like Day I would have no problem including for them retaining on top of taking Lucic. Can’t see it happening, but who knows.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    Broberg’s SHL rights are owned by Skelleftea, with whom he has signed a 1-year contract. I wonder if he’ll line up next to Oilers prospect Filip Berglund on the 2nd pairing? Then the two of them can port over to Bakersfield the next year…

  41. J-Bo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I hope I’m wrong, but I worry about the Athletic.I don’t like seeing the promotions for subscriptions that are lower than what existing subs pay

    – They do a great job: it’s an awesome collection of talent.Sport is the one thing that spans across beliefs and politics.Buzzfeed and Vice: two other great platforms, trying to be different, and doing great stuff: they are in trouble

    – So much “news” now is simply clicking on videos.Articulate content is always going to be important to those who like content , but there are less and less of it

    – NYT: I pay for its subscription, and it’s best in business: but while they grow, the newspaper business continues to die: they attract those from many cities whose papers are now either gone, or just not filled with good content.I had a copy of the Globe and Mail this weekend for some reason: its content is a fraction of what it was 5 years ago, and 3 x the price

    – Best case scenario for The Athletic or to end up like Vox, or The Bleacher Report: and get bought by an entertainment/news conglomerate

    – That’s why this site is fantastic: LT’s not banking it here, and the content isnt’ as rich as it was before he parlayed this into the Athletic and his Radio stuff (good for LT by the way: his content got him noticed, and got paid): but the content here is still better than anything else about the Oil, not to mention all the thoughtful comments on everything under the sun by the poster community

    I don’t mean to downplay LT because I read every blog and love his content, but don’t forget about Jason Gregor over at Oilers Nation. He has a different way of looking at things in comparison to LT and others and I really enjoy his takes and writing. To me, he is in the same category as LT’s blog here. My favorite LT stuff is an article like yesterday’s. I love hearing his personal opinions on things and I love when he uses his storyteller side on the blog. The stats and analytics here and on the Athletic can help bolster an article, but they aren’t why I come or why I care. It is the writing skills, personalization, and storytelling every time. Keep up the great work LT!

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice to see they resigned Patrick Russell – he was a group 6 UFA so could have moved on. I originally thought that they might move on from Malone on the premise that Russell was now the “veteran leader” but its really good to have both back as they are both material players for the Condors – and will be moreso if Joe G. spends ample time in the NHL (remains to be seen).

    Don’t get me wrong, I hope they play all their games in the AHL as, if either is dressing for the Oilers, things have probably gone off the rails again. As good an AHL player as Malone is, his game does not translate to the NHL. P. Russell did fine in his NHL time but he is the definition of a 14th forward/tweener and the NHL lineup needs real NHL players throughout. Good depth, just in case though.

  43. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Jaxon,

    Tanev would be a good pickup, should be cheapish. He is relatively young, fast and he can centre the third line.

  44. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Tanev will be 28 mid-season. Really isn’t very young.

  45. Jordan says:

    Material Elvis: If you are sending them Samorukov, then I don’t want any one back.Eriksson and Lucic have the same negative value.Your proposal essentially sends Samorukov to the Nucks for one year of Lucic cap relief — that is a massive overpay.

    Agreed – Samorukov is WAY too much. I’d consider flipping 2019 second round picks as a sweetener, or a B-tier prospect like Hebig or Vesey or a 5th round pick.

  46. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tanev will be 28 mid-season. Really isn’t very young.

    Tanev would probably be a far better bet than Connelly. If you are looking for the next Pisani, Tanev is probably it.

  47. Rube Foster says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As has been suggested on this blog before, I’m kinda betting on board with an Oscar Lindberg acquisition for a 3C filler.

    From Holland’s interview Danny the NUGE.

    “We’ve gotta find some cheaper players that contribute whether it’s through entry level or they’re free agents that have been playing pro and bouncing around or are Europeans like Nygard.”

    I’m on board with Oscar Lindberg at C and Ultra Magnus Paajarvi at RW as bottom six options. They’re the right age, FAST and responsible, and perhaps most importantly, they could be cheap. They might make for a lightning fast line third line with just enough offense if Joakim Nygard pans out.

    Linberg seems more like a Holland type of player than Riley Sheehan even though Sheehan WAS one of Holland’s players for a fair stretch of time:)

  48. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: Tanev would probably be a far better bet than Connelly.If you are looking for the next Pisani, Tanev is probably it.

    Ideally you could shed a bit of money and add both.

    Connolly is 37th in 5v5 P/60 over the last 3 seasons among NHL regulars at 2.19 (I used 500 mins), Tanev 361st at 1.27

    Hopefully you can pay Connolly to be a 35P scorer, not a 46P scorer like this past season.

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Here’s the way I see it. Benning is a third pairing dman who could possibly hopefully move up to the second pair. Brown is a third line winger who could possibly hopefully move up to the top 6. I give Brown the edge because he’s already scored 20 in the top six.

    Yeah, I’m just not seeing the appeal in Connor Brown. His P/60 is virtually identical to Khaira’s and he’ll cost about twice as much. He pretty much scores 1.40 P/60 every year, while Khaira is at 1.38. Does Brown play well with skill? The numbers say he doesn’t: in 566 minutes with Matthews over the past 3 years his scoring rate goes up to 1.69. Which is laughable considering that even Benning does better: in his last 592 minutes with McDavid, Benning posted 1.82 P/60! Kassian at 1.89 over his last 500 minutes makes much more sense than Brown. Better yet, Puljujarvi at 2.06 (400 mins) or Ty Rattie at 2.23 (in 400 mins).

    I just don’t see the appeal of Brown, he’s a 3rd line winger who quite frankly has not proven to be able to move up into the top-6. It might be worthwhile to pick him up for a year using a 5th or something, but I sure as hell wouldn’t trade a proven 3RD who has proven to be able to move up the order when required for him.

  50. geowal says:

    For some reason I punish myself by occasionally reading the comments on the Oilers Facebook posts. But Re: Gretzky staying on/promotion, they are actually mostly positive and rational. As opposed to the freak out about hiring some business exec nobody heard of before yesterday.
    Just an interesting view of the masses.

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Ideally you could shed a bit of money and add both.

    Connolly is 37th in 5v5 P/60 over the last 3 seasons among NHL regulars at 2.19 (I used 500 mins), Tanev 361st at 1.27

    Hopefully you can pay Connolly to be a 35P scorer, not a 46P scorer like this past season.

    Check out Connolly’s shooting percentage over the past 3 years though. Think it’ll last?

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Tanev would probably be a far better bet than Connelly.If you are looking for the next Pisani, Tanev is probably it.

    You would hire them for two totally different jobs.

    You hire Connolly probably 2RW to give 93’s line scoring punch
    You hire Tanev to be 3C.

    Ideally you move Russell and get both.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    Do you find it interesting that Holland doesn’t mention Klefbom or Larsson as part of the core?
    Or am I reading too much into 1 quote?

    I think you are reading too much in to it.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    bwar:
    Does anyone know when we will find out the actual number for the salary cap?

    I believe that generally comes out right before July 1 – like around the 28th/29th of June.

  55. LadiesloveSmid says:

    ArmchairGM: Check out Connolly’s shooting percentage over the past 3 years though. Think it’ll last?

    Nearly 14% ins his career. If you take out his 19YO season where he was rushed. nearly 15.5% shooter.

    Could absolutely serve to shoot more, but seems to be a bonafide sniper when he does.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coiler:
    I don’t get the sense that Holland makes any moves out of desperation or the need to put in a ‘quick fix’. I think, if anything, Vancouver should be adding in a sweetener to offload Eriksson. After all, he’s the one who has gone public about wanting out of Mr Green’s doghouse.

    I think the Oilers need lady luck to start smiling on them again in terms of the development of their players.Yamamoto needs a monster year in the AHL. No ifs, ands, or buts.

    On point 1, yes, well, Lucic has also expressed the same in the past (and rumored to have again recently) and, frankly, Eriksson has been more productive for the last 2 years (and all 3 years at evens), plays on the PK (and seems solid in the role) and takes on a material amount of minutes against elites.

    On point 2, absolutely, and, given how he was playing after he settled in last year, I have little doubt that he will if (a) the organization assigns him near the end of camp and forgets about him until well after the turn of the calendar (don’t call him up after 10 points in 11 games) and (b) he stays healthy (PLEASE)!

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d be open to throwing in a sweetener for Erikson if VAN was willing to retain some salary ($1M or more).

    Lucic+Somorukov for Erikson at $4.5M for 3 more years?

    You’d at least be getting warmer in my eyes.Tippet might be able to get more out of Erikson than Green did.And you could disagree with Somorukov, but there’s definitely gonna be a price attached to trading away Lucic.

    Whoa – that’s a hard no on Samorukov – that is way too material of an asset. Lets talk about Ethan Bear in that spot…

  58. Tapdog says:

    Question to the masses..

    With the talk of how McD and or Drai not wanting to play with JP, do you feel that it is because JP prefers to be the one carrying the puck? Do you feel that JP could be a “driver” of a line?
    The reason why I ask is because I was thinking back to his World Jr Championship and how he played there.

    Is it fair to say that Nuge isn’t a driver…. Could you put JP with Nuge and another like a JT Miller (that’s for you Godot10) and say……… have at it??

    Sign him on a show me contract, place him with savy vets and ???????????

    lol just a thought 🙂

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Even with them retaining?Lucic’s contract is Houdini-proof!If they are looking for a sweetener, why not make it a decent one in exchange for them retaining some salary?VAN has no cap issues at all, so they’re basically adding a good prospect for cash.We’ve got probably 4-5 decent bets placed on prospect defencemen right now (Bouch, Jones, Bear, Persson, Laggesson, Day).If that’s all it costs to get rid of the Lucic contract, I’d at least consider it.Vancouver might be the only place he’ll agree to go to.And we’d have to protect him in the expansion draft if he’s still here then.That’s protecting him so you can still have him for the last 2 years left on his deal.

    Samorukov is too dear a price to pay in that scenario – he may never play an NHL game but the potential he has makes him too important of a piece.

    Also, yes, Vancouver has cap room now, however, before those contracts are up the new contracts for Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser (this year) will be due and those of some other youngsters that could prove pricy.

    That scenario has $7.5M for Lucic – they may want Samorukov given that is material but they aren’t getting him (at least in my mind).

    Holland has mentioned Samorukov like 5 times publicly – he seems to acknowledge the potential that is there.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    If I move Lucic for Erickson I do it straight up. Each contract is the same cap hit and neither can be bought out. Canucks get the one year penalty for length but they get the guy that’s 3years younger.
    I would not add more than a mid round pick

  61. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Material Elvis: If you are sending them Samorukov, then I don’t want any one back.Eriksson and Lucic have the same negative value.Your proposal essentially sends Samorukov to the Nucks for one year of Lucic cap relief — that is a massive overpay.

    It’s actually Somorukov for 3years of some cap relief if VAN retains salary, plus a full year shorter deal on Eriksson, on a way less difficult contract to buy out. I know it’s a gamble, but I’m not moving Bouch or Jones, and I don’t think Bear gets a deal done. Somorukov might be just as likely to be Griffin Reinhart. or Colton Teubert as he is to be a stud.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Maybe the Broberg chatter is something we are not used to hearing. Instead of blabbing all of your plans in stream of consciousness straight off the limbic brain media avails, there is a little slight of hand going on.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    If I move Lucic for Erickson I do it straight up.Each contract is the same cap hit and neither can be bought out.Canucks get the one year penalty for length but they get the guy that’s 3years younger.
    I would not add more than a mid round pick

    I wouldn’t add more than a mid round pick either but Eriksson has been the better player over the last few years – he’s been more productive, he plays on the PK (and does a solid job), has taken on high defensive zone starts and played material minutes against elites.

    The PK alone is significant.

    Still wouldn’t give up more than a middling sweetener.

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Holland trades Samurokov (likely there best D prospect) to get rid of Lucic (who’s only issue has been scoring points, not getting his head caved in on possession) we’ll know there is no hope for this org.

    The only logical response I could make is to light my underwear on fire and put my kilt back on.

  65. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    If I move Lucic for Erickson I do it straight up.Each contract is the same cap hit and neither can be bought out.Canucks get the one year penalty for length but they get the guy that’s 3years younger.
    I would not add more than a mid round pick

    3 years younger, league top meanie, and not a public whiner is worth a year of contract. Or more.

  66. Material Elvis says:

    Tapdog:
    Question to the masses..

    With the talk of how McD and or Drai not wanting to play with JP, do you feel that it is because JP prefers to be the one carrying the puck? Do you feel that JP could be a “driver” of a line?
    The reason why I ask is because I was thinking back to his World Jr Championship and how he played there.

    Is it fair to say that Nuge isn’t a driver…. Could you put JP with Nuge and another like a JT Miller (that’s for you Godot10) and say……… have at it??

    Sign him on a show me contract, place him with savy vets and ???????????

    lol just a thought

    In my estimation, they don’t like to play with JP because he doesn’t play a give-and-go style like the majority of skill forwards do. He’s too in love with that long range wrist shot. Players hate it when guys do that. It makes you feel like you can’t pass to that person because the play will die.

    Is JP dynamic enough to drive a line? To this point, he has not shown that ability. He needs a solid, consistent,veteran center and mentor.

  67. Material Elvis says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: It’s actually Somorukov for 3years of some cap relief if VAN retains salary, plus a full year shorter deal on Eriksson, on a way less difficult contract to buy out.I know it’s a gamble, but I’m not moving Bouch or Jones, and I don’t think Bear gets a deal done.Somorukov might be just as likely to be Griffin Reinhart. or Colton Teubert as he is to be a stud.

    I guess it’s a bit better with that salary retention but still not enough to trade Samorukov in that deal. Like most other posters, I think a draft pick or C prospect would be adequate. Green doesn’t care for Eriksson and they want him gone. Lucic is ‘better in the room’ so I think the Oilers have a bit of leverage in such a negotiation.

  68. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Tapdog:
    Question to the masses..

    With the talk of how McD and or Drai not wanting to play with JP, do you feel that it is because JP prefers to be the one carrying the puck? Do you feel that JP could be a “driver” of a line?
    The reason why I ask is because I was thinking back to his World Jr Championship and how he played there.

    Is it fair to say that Nuge isn’t a driver…. Could you put JP with Nuge and another like a JT Miller (that’s for you Godot10) and say……… have at it??

    Sign him on a show me contract, place him with savy vets and ???????????

    lol just a thought

    I think you’re bang on. McLellan said the same. I haven’t watched much video of Jesse, but I saw the same thing, he liked to carry the puck and carry the flow of attack.

    I saw in the bigs the same thing defensively. He wants to control play, get after the puck

    However the previous regime wanted him to be a power winger, use his size on the boards and be a player he’s not currently.

    Which is why I have said he might be better at centre where he can skate and roam more. IF he’s healthy now, given I see defensive responsibility in his game and a work ethic on the puck, and he’s a big right shot, I’d try it.

    I’m not comparing, but when Sather moved Messier to C he wasn’t exactly a polished player. Partly need, partly that Slats saw a player that wanted to dominate the ice and the play.

  69. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wouldn’t add more than a mid round pick either but Eriksson has been the better player over the last few years – he’s been more productive, he plays on the PK (and does a solid job), has taken on high defensive zone starts and played material minutes against elites.

    The PK alone is significant.

    Still wouldn’t give up more than a middling sweetener.

    Lucic hits a lot and he can hurt you if he wants there isn’t to many in the league that can do that. No way Holland is adding a all tool potential 1-2 goldmine late draft pick as a sweetener. Everybody and their dog have been raving about Sami especially in the visible to all great playoff run.

  70. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You would hire them for two totally different jobs.

    You hire Connolly probably 2RW to give 93’s line scoring punch
    You hire Tanev to be 3C.

    Ideally you move Russell and get both.

    Tanev took eight faceoffs last year. Adam Lowry or Andrew Copp are the fellows who might be able to help on a complementary line at center.

  71. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wouldn’t add more than a mid round pick either but Eriksson has been the better player over the last few years – he’s been more productive, he plays on the PK (and does a solid job), has taken on high defensive zone starts and played material minutes against elites.

    The PK alone is significant.

    Still wouldn’t give up more than a middling sweetener.

    If I understand correctly the reason Eriksson is unhappy in Vancouver is because he has been asked to play those defensive minutes and he doesn’t like it so I don’t know that the things you list as advantages would necessarily be strong points in favour of acquiring him. I think he sees himself as an offensive player first and foremost according the comment in the link.

    https://www.tsn.ca/vancouver-canucks-gm-jim-benning-set-to-meet-with-loui-eriksson-1.1320356

  72. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wouldn’t add more than a mid round pick either but Eriksson has been the better player over the last few years – he’s been more productive, he plays on the PK (and does a solid job), has taken on high defensive zone starts and played material minutes against elites.

    The PK alone is significant.

    Still wouldn’t give up more than a middling sweetener.

    He played 1:11 pk per game and was the 6th most used forward last year.
    His contribution to the pk is overrated

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If Holland trades Samurokov (likely there best D prospect) to get rid of Lucic (who’s only issue has been scoring points, not getting his head caved in on possession) we’ll know there is no hope for this org.

    The only logical response I could make is to light my underwear on fire and put my kilt back on.

    Considering Holland has mentioned Samorukov as a material prospect who is coming at least 4 times, I can’t imagine him doing this.

  74. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, I’m just not seeing the appeal in Connor Brown. His P/60 is virtually identical to Khaira’s and he’ll cost about twice as much. He pretty much scores 1.40 P/60 every year, while Khaira is at 1.38.DoesBrown play well with skill? The numbers say he doesn’t: in 566 minutes with Matthews over the past 3 years his scoring rate goes up to 1.69. Which is laughable considering that even Benning does better: in his last 592 minutes with McDavid, Benning posted 1.82 P/60! Kassian at 1.89 over his last 500 minutes makes much more sense than Brown. Better yet, Puljujarvi at 2.06 (400 mins) or Ty Rattie at 2.23 (in 400 mins).

    I just don’t see the appeal of Brown, he’s a 3rd line winger who quite frankly has not proven to be able to move up into the top-6. It might be worthwhile to pick him up for a year using a 5th or something, but I sure as hell wouldn’t trade a proven 3RD who has proven to be able to move up the order when required for him.

    Brown scored 20 as a rookie and 14 as a sophomore. He sucked last year with only 8. And while P/60 is a valuable stat, it should not be used in isolation. At some point we should value actual goals scored.

    You don’t have to like him. That’s fine. I think I’m closer to Benning’s actual real trade value though, rather than suggestions like JT Miller and Kappanen. I would also suggest that Benning hasn’t proven he can slide up the order. I’m not saying Brown is a fantastic player, but neither is Benning. They are both legit, useful and unspectacular NHL players.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Lucic hits a lot and he can hurt you if he wants there isn’t to many in the league that can do that. No way Holland is adding a all tool potential 1-2 goldmine late draft pickas a sweetener. Everybody and their dog have been raving about Sami especially in the visible to all great playoff run.

    The hitting Lucic does these days does not help win hockey games.

    Of course, Samorukov is an egregious over-pay but I don’t see anything positive Lucic is doing on the ice – he had, what 2 games last year where his “hitting” helped lead to a win?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: He played 1:11 pk per game and was the 6th most used forward last year.
    His contribution to the pk is overrated

    on a PK that was 11th in the league – not dead last.

    Pretty sure we could use him on the PK.

    His metrics on the PK (GA/60, SA/60) having also been very good over the years and really good last year.

    I’m quite certain he’s a more effective penalty killer than Lucic and would be among the Oilers regulars given current roster.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Brown scored 20 as a rookie and 14 as a sophomore. He sucked last year with only 8. And while P/60 is a valuable stat, it should not be used in isolation. At some point we should value actual goals scored.

    You don’t have to like him. That’s fine. I think I’m closer to Benning’s actual real trade value though, rather than suggestions like JT Miller and Kappanen. I would also suggest that Benning hasn’t proven he can slide up the order. I’m not saying Brown is a fantastic player, but neither is Benning. They are both legit, useful and unspectacular NHL players.

    I posted numbers yesterday proving that Benning did well when paired with either of the top 2 LHD Edmonton has employed over the past 3 years. Too bad you choose to ignore hard evidence, but it’s telling.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Brown scored 20 as a rookie and 14 as a sophomore. He sucked last year with only 8. And while P/60 is a valuable stat, it should not be used in isolation. At some point we should value actual goals scored.

    You don’t have to like him. That’s fine. I think I’m closer to Benning’s actual real trade value though, rather than suggestions like JT Miller and Kappanen. I would also suggest that Benning hasn’t proven he can slide up the order. I’m not saying Brown is a fantastic player, but neither is Benning. They are both legit, useful and unspectacular NHL players.

    Brown scored 20 playing with one of the best 5v5 centers in the world and with significant PP time on one of the best PP’s in the league… in fact he was dropped from the PP that season due to his lack of scoring despite the phenomenal opportunities he was given. Pretty much any 3rd liner in the league today could score 20 if gifted a similar opportunity. Look no further than Chiasson for evidence of that.

    Brown is a cap dump for the Leafs. You don’t give up a roster player for such an acquisition.

  79. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    If the Oilers see Broberg as a probable top pairing defender, perhaps in partnership with Evan Bouchard (whose skills are not similar, and would need a Broberg type to play with him), then selecting him has value.
    My one worry: If you’re drafting a player No. 8 overall, he needs to be a substantial offensive force. I don’t see that in Broberg’s game, which is the main reason I have him No. 16 on my list.

    I know boxcars don’t tell the full story, but I don’t see any red flags in his numbers from this year. By all accounts he’s also an excellent skater (as you’re well aware).

    For comparison, Broberg and other high end Swedish defenders drafted in the top 15 from (relatively) recent years. Most played their draft year in the SuperElit (U20 league), the U18 World Jrs and a mens league (either SHL or the 2nd league Allvenskan).

    Broberg (18-19)
    SuperElit—- 8-2-6-8
    Allvenskan 41-2-7-9
    WJC-18—– 7-2-4-6

    Dahlin 2018 1st overall, not comparable

    Boquist 2018 8th
    SuperElit— 25-14-10-24
    SHL——— 15-0-1-1
    Allvenskan- 7-0-2-2
    WJC-18—– 6-3-3-6

    Brannstrom 2017 15th
    SuperElit— 19-9-14-23
    SHL———- 35-1-5-6
    WJC-18—– 7-2-3-5

    Lindholm 2012 6th
    SuperElit—- 28-5-12-17
    Allvenskan– 20-1-3-4
    WJC-18—— 6-0-4-4

    A Larsson 2011 4th, not comparable (SHL and WJC-20)

    Hedman 2009 1st, not comparable

    OE Larsson 2009 6th
    Allvenskan– 39-3-14-17
    WJC-18—— 6-2-6-8

    Karlsson 2008 15th
    SuperElit— 38-13-24-37
    SHL———- 7-1-0-1
    WJC-18—– 6-0-7-7

    He compares pretty damn favourably with these players, for what it’s worth.

  80. jp says:

    leadfarmer: He played 1:11 pk per game and was the 6th most used forward last year.
    His contribution to the pk is overrated

    I noticed he wasn’t used a lot last year as well so I had a look slightly further back. He’s averaged 1:32 per game on the PK since he’s been in Vancouver. Over that span (3 seasons), 119 forwards have spent >250 min on the PK (~1 min per game). In rates/60 Eriksson ranked thusly:

    CA 4th
    FA 3rd
    SA 5th
    GA 16th
    xGA 3rd
    SCA 13th
    HDCA 4th

    This is among the 119 most used PK forwards. On the 8th worst PK team in the league over the same span (though most of their metrics other than GA were slightly above average).

    I have no idea why Vancouver didn’t use him more on the PK, but it appears he’s a very good to elite penalty killer.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Presumably, as not the top pairing guy, most his PK time has been against the second units but, still. His PK usage is reason enough to make the trade. I will take that over leading the league in offensive zone hits when the play is turning the other way…..

  82. Ben says:

    Considering the lack of palatable options, I’d be leaning to just keeping Lucic for the 4th line, maybe net-front on PP2.

    Does he actually ‘quiet the game down’? Who knows. It’s impossible to measure what doesn’t happen. But it’s not a completely worthless intangible.

  83. jp says:

    Looking at Eriksson’s Boston career 13-14 to 15-16, he was also exceptional on the PK, playing 1:39 a game (I can’t do more than 3 year chunks on NST, though this neatly catches his last 2 teams in 3 yr blocks).

    Among 137 players with >250 PK minutes from 13-14 to 15-16, Eriksson ranked:

    CA 15th
    FA 8th
    SA 8th
    GA 9th
    xGA 7th
    SCA 7th
    HDSCA 8th

    That’s actually really remarkable. Eriksson was among the top 20 NHLers in every defensive PK metric during his 3 yr Boston career, as well as his 3 yrs Vancouver career.

    I think you gotta call him an elite penalty killer. Basically zero doubt.

    Ken, make it so.

    I was in the “for” camp on a Lucic/Eriksson trade before this due to one less year, but I’m a very strong positive seeing these PK numbers, as well the tough competition he’s faced.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ben: Wood

    This is one thing where the eye test says it all. I haven’t watched every game, and I have also seen no team try to run around on the Oilers, Tkachuk was being a Tkachuk, and didn’t the next game.

    Brownlee claims Lucic ‘had a word’. From everything I know, have read and seen, including coaches and players from opponents saying that if you went after the Oilers in the past they’d stop playing, I believe it.

    Lucic can’t stop kamikaze events, but team efforts of trying to run players won’t fly when he, or someone of significant gravity, is around and acting.

    I still remember him fronting Getzlaf in the playoffs and G backing down.

    When did that clown ever back down from an Oiler before?

    As LT says, balance. A team can’t be too big, too small, to weak, too tough. A balance of players that can play NHL hockey in their role.

    You can’t afford too much skill that produces goals/points in a capped league. You can’t be a consistent contender without top end players.

    If you have top end players the job really is much easier.

  85. jp says:

    Tapdog:
    Question to the masses..

    With the talk of how McD and or Drai not wanting to play with JP, do you feel that it is because JP prefers to be the one carrying the puck? Do you feel that JP could be a “driver” of a line?
    The reason why I ask is because I was thinking back to his World Jr Championship and how he played there.

    Is it fair to say that Nuge isn’t a driver…. Could you put JP with Nuge and another like a JT Miller (that’s for you Godot10) and say……… have at it??

    Sign him on a show me contract, place him with savy vets and ???????????

    lol just a thought

    It’s a good thought. I absolutely agree in theory.

    The only concern is that Nuge and JP have been not at all good together.

    CF%
    Together 45.4 (399 minutes)
    Nuge w/o 49.3
    Pulju w/o 51.7

    FF%
    Together 44.1
    Nuge w/o 49.3
    Pulju w/o 52.7

    SF%
    Together 43.1
    Nuge w/o 50.4
    Pulju w/o 51.2

    GF%
    Together 41.9
    Nuge w/o 50.4
    Pulju w/o 50.0

    xGF%
    Together 43.9
    Nuge w/o 48.8
    Pulju w/o 52.3

    Now that I type it out, that may be the best argument I’ve seen for keeping those two the hell away from each other.

  86. slopitch says:

    I wonder how hard Zadina would be to pry outta Detroit. He had an uneven year in Grand Rapids. It would take more than Puljujarvi. Right? Lets say Kenny H is shopping JP quietly and calls up Stevie Y. Nobody would know Zadina better than KH you’d think.

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I posted numbers yesterday proving that Benning did well when paired with either of the top 2 LHD Edmonton has employed over the past 3 years. Too bad you choose to ignore hard evidence, but it’s telling.

    Yes, I read those posts. And you also acknowledged that maybe those numbers were not telling the whole story. The numbers have merit of course. But two NHL coaches have not felt comfortable playing him on the second pair. That has merit too. They have chosen to play him on the third pair. Hence he’s a third pairing dman. I’ve certainly acknowledged that he could possibly hopefully become a top four dman, but he certainly isn’t that yet. And on another team maybe he becomes a second pair damn. Just like if Brown plays for the Oil, he becomes a top six forward.

  88. Rondo says:

    #1. NY-Jack Hughes
    #2. NYR-Kaapo Kakko
    #3. CHI-Bowen Byram
    #4. COL-Alex Turcotte
    #5. LA-Kirby Dach
    #6. DET-Trevor Zegras
    #7. BUF-Dylan Cozens
    #8.EDM-Vasili Podkolzin,Philip Broberg,Matthew Boldy or Peyton Krebs

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Brown scored 20 playing with one of the best 5v5 centers in the world and with significant PP time on one of the best PP’s in the league… in fact he was dropped from the PP that season due to his lack of scoring despite the phenomenal opportunities he was given. Pretty much any 3rd liner in the league today could score 20 if gifted a similar opportunity. Look no further than Chiasson for evidence of that.

    Brown is a cap dump for the Leafs. You don’t give up a roster player for such an acquisition.

    Of course we all know the suggestion that any third pair player can score with exceptional centres like Mathews and McDavid simply isn’t reality. Is Brown better than Chiasson? I would think he is. Probably not much better, but younger with more upside and maybe even cheaper. I think I have been quite explicit that I don’t think Brown is a superstar. I simply think it’s a fair trade for Benning and more realistic than options like Kappanen and Miller.

  90. pts2pndr says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: It’s actually Somorukov for 3years of some cap relief if VAN retains salary, plus a full year shorter deal on Eriksson, on a way less difficult contract to buy out.I know it’s a gamble, but I’m not moving Bouch or Jones, and I don’t think Bear gets a deal done.Somorukov might be just as likely to be Griffin Reinhart. or Colton Teubert as he is to be a stud.

    If you are serious about a sweetener and the choice is Jones or Samorukov Jones is the one to go. Samorukov is better at defense better shot and has the size advantage. His skating is also on the same plane as Jones. You know what you have in Jones. I believe it is a safe bet that Samorukov’s ceiling is probably a top pairing D. Jones a top four D. Both have value but if you have to part with either or Jones is the one to move!

  91. gimme shelter says:

    No way do we draft Broberg. We have plenty of defencemen between Edmonton and Bakersfield to sort out. WE NEED FORWARDS. Particularily forwards with skill and size (sorry Caulfield) Our forward lines should not depend on 3 centers for offense. Natural wingers are what we need. Wingers who can play with Mcjesus, Drai(if he wants his own line) and RNH.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Considering the lack of palatable options, I’d be leaning to just keeping Lucic for the 4th line, maybe net-front on PP2.

    Does he actually ‘quiet the game down’? Who knows. It’s impossible to measure what doesn’t happen.But it’s not a completely worthless intangible.

    Lucic as net front is something that simply does not work.

    Lets not forget that he has never been a PP producer except a complete one-off in year 1 of his contract where he doubled all of his numbers and metrics (and has since come back to historical norms).

    He is awful in front of the net because he doesn’t stand in front of the net – he stands off to the side – doesn’t screen, doesn’t create chaos, generally not in a spot to grab pot a rebound or deflect a puck. He’s a terrible net front guy.

  93. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Of course we all know the suggestion that any third pair player can score with exceptional centres like Mathews and McDavid simply isn’t reality.

    We do? Do you want to present proof?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    June 11, 2019 at 9:41 pm
    Looking at Eriksson’s Boston career 13-14 to 15-16, he was also exceptional on the PK, playing 1:39 a game (I can’t do more than 3 year chunks on NST, though this neatly catches his last 2 teams in 3 yr blocks).

    Among 137 players with >250 PK minutes from 13-14 to 15-16, Eriksson ranked:

    CA 15th
    FA 8th
    SA 8th
    GA 9th
    xGA 7th
    SCA 7th
    HDSCA 8th

    That’s actually really remarkable. Eriksson was among the top 20 NHLers in every defensive PK metric during his 3 yr Boston career, as well as his 3 yrs Vancouver career.

    I think you gotta call him an elite penalty killer. Basically zero doubt.

    Absolutely, 100%.

    Sure, Jones is closer to the NHL but Lagesson is just as NHL ready (different skill set and doesn’t play the right side like Jones has, at least at the AHL level) but I think Lagesson will prove to be a solid 3LD this year (and I think he has potential to be a 22 minute 2LD within a few years).

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    gimme shelter:
    No way do we draft Broberg. We have plenty of defencemen between Edmonton and Bakersfield to sort out. WE NEED FORWARDS. Particularily forwards with skill and size (sorry Caulfield) Our forward lines should not depend on 3 centers for offense. Natural wingersare what we need. Wingers who can play with Mcjesus, Drai(if he wants his own line) and RNH.

    Drafting for need is something to consider in rounds 3-7 but, in the first round, draft the BPA, in my opinion.

    Yes, we have a solid pool of LD prospects but that doesn’t mean it can’t grow. From accounts, the player at 8 is likely 2 full years away and who knows what the organizational depth will look like at that point. Russell and Sekera will be gone. We likely lost a d-man in the expansion draft. Maybe Samorukov doesn’t make it or needs more time.

    If Broberg is the organization’s consensus BPA, and I personally have no idea, take him

  96. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Presumably, as not the top pairing guy, most his PK time has been against the second units but, still.His PK usage is reason enough to make the trade.I will take that over leading the league in offensive zone hits when the play is turning the other way…..

    Eriksson will be 34 at the start of next season with three more seasons to go.

    The cliff is close ahead.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    and if there is a major fall off (in addition to his current fall-off), oh well, its not like Lucic is adding anything to the lineup. As of right now, Eriksson is the more productive player with the broader skillset that can play in more situations. If he falls off a cliff, maybe he falls off to Lucic useless levels.

  98. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and if there is a major fall off (in addition to his current fall-off), oh well, its not like Lucic is adding anything to the lineup. As of right now, Eriksson is the more productive player with the broader skillset that can play in more situations. If he falls off a cliff, maybe he falls off to Lucic useless levels.

    I hope Holland doesn’t trade 1st rounders in the deal as Lowetide predicted as a possible option.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mckenzie speculating there will be a good number of buyouts this off-season.

    Buy out period starts 48 hours after the cup is awarded.

    I’m guessing guys like Phaneuf, Perry, etc.

    As for the Oilers, I can’t think of a single player where it makes sense to buy them out this off-season.

    Only someone like Manning and they could bury him in the AHL for only a couple hundred grand more without the extra new term penalty.

    Sekera? No way – don’t buy out legit NHL d-men (very possibly legit NHL 2nd pairing d-men) and add 2 years of term.

    Lucic? Way too egregious.

    Gagner? Ya, maybe, but, given organizational depth, he’s the “skill” we need in the bottom 6 – I am in favor of a trade to Ottawa for a very middling asset – Ottawa buys him out and the Oilers sign him at a third or half the current price.

  100. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: We do? Do you want to present proof?

    I give. You are 100% correct. Every third liner who plays with great centres can score 20 goals. Don’t know what I was thinking.

  101. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I give. You are 100% correct. Every third liner who plays with great centres can score 20 goals. Don’t know what I was thinking.

    That’s not what I said.

  102. so polar says:

    Just an anal note to those, like LT, using the wrong name: Matt Cane, who did the contract spreadsheets the last few summers, has been hired by, I believe, the devils. This summer’s is from the folks at Evolving Hockey , and I’m not sure I love it as much. The main difference to me is that Matt Cane’s model listed the dollars predicted by the length of the contract for each player, whereas this one just tells you the most-predicted length and the dollar amount for it.

  103. Reja says:

    Coiler:
    I don’t get the sense that Holland makes any moves out of desperation or the need to put in a ‘quick fix’. I think, if anything, Vancouver should be adding in a sweetener to offload Eriksson. After all, he’s the one who has gone public about wanting out of Mr Green’s doghouse.

    Insofar as Broberg is concerned, he seems like an enticing prospect. But he’s only 17 so who the hell knows what he’ll be when he’s 27. Since the Oilers are working from a position of relative strength in that position, I would sooner take a skilled winger. Then again, if the notion of the league going the way of the offer sheet comes to fruition, then the Oilers (and all other teams for that matter) might find themselves dealing from a position of weakness in the coming years.

    I think the Oilers need lady luck to start smiling on them again in terms of the development of their players.Yamamoto needs a monster year in the AHL. No ifs, ands, or buts.

    Bang on especially of all this talk of adding a substantial sweeter to trade Lucic to Van I have no doubt that Lucic would have more value to Van then eriksson would to Edmonton and some posters want to add or retain salary have they not been watching St.loo muscle there way to game 7 and the Caps as well last year. Why would we do a favour to Van who is in our goddamn division.

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