Muswell Hillbilly

The Oilers signed Patrick Russell yesterday, adding another name to the 50-man list. I’ve always wondered how unsigned RFA players who are possibly bubble types react when a UFA gets a contract. Make no mistake, the deck chairs are running out, and RFA’s are waiting for deals. A contract means a training camp and a roster spot in Edmonton (or Bakersfield). No contract means Europe or an invite without any guarantees. No fun, this.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Father’s Day Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
  • New Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
  • New Daniel Nugent-BowmanQ&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?

NEW 50-MAN LIST (42)

The list is up to 42, with only two slide rules (Bouchard and Rodrigue) in the entire lot. Bouchard will turn pro, and the Oilers will sign fewer than 50 total, so let’s say we’re at 41 of 48 — seven names to sign.

RFA’s who remain unsigned include Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira, Tobias Rieder, Ty Rattie, plus three minor leaguers (Colin Larkin, Robin Norell, Tyler Vesel). Sail on Hayden Hawkey and Vincent Desharnais, and we’re looking at some turnover with the restricted men (same as it ever was).

If the Oilers plan to trade, or are in conversations with teams about trading one of the rfa’s, it’s likely they don’t get signed. Let the next team make their own decision.

KEITH GRETZKY, BOB GREEN, BAKERSFIELD, DRAFT

Keith Gretzky will remain Asst. GM in Edmonton and will be the GM of the Condors. Based on the words and music from yesterday, he’ll spend the fall and early winter focusing on the Condors, while Bob Green and the scouts drill down on the 2020 draft. Somewhere in the new year, Gretzky will begin focusing on the draft and be a part of the decision making.

Every swinging Dick has an opinion on the Oilers drafting, I think the last truly poor one was 2012 — partly because it was a poor year and partly because the Oilers were drafting players out of order. The 2013 draft saw only Darnell Nurse emerge, but I’ll go to my grave believing MacT was on the right track making that crazy trade for five picks. They should have signed Marco Roy. The 2013 draft shows you that an organization can do the right things and still have things work out wrong. It doesn’t mean you flush the right things.

The 2014 draft is Leon Draisaitl and William Lagesson but could have been much more. Edmonton dealt for Nikita Nikitin, Victor Fasth, Mike Brown, Ben Scrivens and David Perron.

The 2015 draft was more of the same, although I’ll give the scouts tremendous credit for adding Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and John Marino after the Connor McDavid selection. I count this draft as Bob Green’s first.

The 2016 draft has Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson and Dylan Wells as the only three men who signed a pro contract (among nine selections). Although JP is struggling, there’s still time to get something from what is now an unusual list.

The 2017 draft has a lot of promise, notably Dmitri Samorukov, and 2018 boasts Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrigue but there’s miles to go.

LAST FIVE DRAFTS

There’s no fair way to measure a draft until the five year mark, but we can count arrows. Although you can’t give any credit for walking to the podium to select Connor McDavid, he is part of the draft record. Here’s my take on 2014-2018 drafts:

Generational Talent: Connor McDavid

Impact Talent: Leon Draisaitl

Quality Prospect: Dmitri Samorukov, Evan Bouchard

NHL Prospect: William Lagesson, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, John Marino, Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson, Dylan Wells, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner, Kirill Maksimov, Ryan McLeod, Olivier Rodrigue

Is it good enough? By eye, it looks better than 2008-12, but we have arrows not concrete results. Holland will make his changes to the scouting staff this summer, seems Gretzky and Green will be part of the future. I believe the results since 2017 are strong enough to retain, and know that is a minority opinion. I am hopeful we can have a conversation and not a food fight.

CONDORS SIGNINGS

Aside from Russell, the organization added a couple of AHL contracts to the group this week. The Condors have signed Luke Esposito and Steven Iacobellis to AHL contracts. Ryan Holt (pbp man for Bakersfield) said “Esposito took an enhanced role late in the season and seized the opportunity. Effective center and PK guy as well. Iacobellis was named to the ECHL All-Rookie Team following an injury last year.”

These AHL signings can be important and the current procurement group can boast Josh Currie and Logan Day as men who came through the AHL-only deals to land NHL contracts. I keep wondering about Evan Polei. Jared Wilson has signed with an Sm-Liiga team and Braden Christoffer is off to Norway. (Source)

BUYOUTS

June 15-30 is the first window and Ken Holland told DNB that he was mulling buyouts and hadn’t made up his mind. Because these things can get confusing, and because the reason for buyouts is most often immediate help, here are the cap savings for 2019-20 on various contract buyouts:

Kris Russell $3.083 million

Andrej Sekera $3.0 million

Milan Lucic $2.375 million

Sam Gagner $2.133 million

Brandon Manning $1.33 million

GAME OVER

Melancholy is my mood this morning, they’re going to turn off the lights after tonight’s G7 SCF and it’s summer. I love summer, but miss hockey already. My whole life people have said “come on, you can’t possibly want more hockey” but they don’t know. When the final credits roll tonight, the business of hockey will be front and center and I’m grateful. But the game itself will be at rest, and I’ll be it until September.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning that will give way to a massive sports night, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Kris Abbott will join us from OddsShark to talk SCF and NBA finals, and Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will pop in for a discussion of the Oilers draft plans. I’ll also have a special announcement at 11:05 or so, when Bruce is on the show. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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196 Responses to "Muswell Hillbilly"

  1. russ99 says:

    I’d suspect that front office changes/additions are made after the draft.

    Go Bruins!

  2. J-Bo says:

    A special announcement?? It better be that Paul Almeida is joining you again for an amazing Saturday show!! The two of you together was my favorite 2 hours of sports radio!!

  3. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Is Samorukov’s draft+2 any better than Bear’s?

    Manning buyout gotta be in consideration

  4. Jaxon says:

    Simon Boisvert released his rankings as part of Grant McCagg’s Recrutes Draft Guide. He has Tomasino at #11! Highest of anyone so far. I like to see that because when I do my final attempt at rankings I make a self-imposed rule that I’ll not rank anyone higher or lower than they are ranked by publicized professional scouts and recognized hockey writers. And I truly believe, based on stats (mostly league and age adjusted 5v5 Primary Points rate and 5v5TOI), and scouting reports regarding tools (hockey sense, skating, puck skills, shot, physicality, size, defensive game, etc), that Tomasino should be a top 8 pick this year. So at least now, I can rank him as high as #11.

  5. godot10 says:

    A Manning buyout is silly, like the Gryba one was. Just bury them in the minors, and get the contract off the books by next summer.

  6. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Who does Grant have at #8?

  7. Psyche says:

    Is there a maximum number of buyouts a team can carry at one time?

    Oilers have Pouliot and Gryba (ugh) on the books for 2019-20. Can they add 2-3 more?

    My preference is for a trade of either Sekera or Russell (no sweetener, with minimal or no $$$ retained) and a buyout of whomever can not be traded (of Sekera and Russell). As Godot10 said, “A Manning buyout is silly…” Send him to the AHL.

  8. jp says:

    Jaxon,

    Are you at all worried Tomasino was being zoomed? He was 5th in points and 7th in P/game on that Niagra team. Any idea who he was playing with? They had 4 guys at 1.5 P/game or better.

  9. Jaxon says:

    Beecher is a very interesting prospect for #38 (***EDIT!!! I MISTAKENLY WROTE #8! NOPE***). While I’m not a fan of picking USNTDP players in the top 8 except Hughes (consensus by scouts), Turcotte (Adjusted 5v5 P1/60 is highest after McDavid and Crosby in last 15 years), and Caufield (goal scoring is elite), I would definitely gamble on a fast, big, defensively solid player who scored at a solid Adjusted 5v5 P1/60 rate. He’s 6’3.25″, 212lbs and one of the fastest skaters in the draft.

    2019 – Jack Hughes – 26.409
    2014 – Nikolaj Ehlers – 26.06
    2008 – Tyler Ennis – 26.04
    2013 – Max Domi – 26.01
    2014 – Leon Draisaitl – 25.93
    2019 – John Beecher – 25.867
    2016 – Clayton Keller – 25.67
    2005 – Steve Downie – 25.41
    2019 – Dylan Cozens – 25.395

    That is some great company. The caveat being, that he only played an estimated 10:54 of 5v5 icetime, which is the lowest on the above list. As I’ve tried to establish before, low TOI is a pretty good indicator of possible flops with high scoring rates. That said, for the same reason I’m wary of drafting his teammates too high, the TOI may not apply to USNTDP players as it does to everyone else, so maybe it is something I’d risk at #38 if he’s still available, and that is in the range that many lists have him going.

    McCagg’s guide has a section where he polls 4 veteran scouts for the top players at certain aspects. Beecher was the 5th best skater, and 2nd best defensive forward by his poll. That’s a player I want at #38. A pretty safe bet to be a solid 3rd line center and PK specialist (speed and defensive forward). McCagg has him ranked #39.

    Cozens and Beecher would be a very promising draft in my opinion. Fingers crossed. Two other players that interest me at #38 are Lassi Thompson and Dom Fensore.

  10. jp says:

    Psyche:
    Is there a maximum number of buyouts a team can carry at one time?

    Oilers have Pouliot and Gryba (ugh) on the books for 2019-20. Can they add 2-3 more?

    My preference is for a trade of either Sekera or Russell (no sweetener, with minimal or no $$$ retained) and a buyout of whomever can not be traded (of Sekera and Russell). As Godot10 said, “A Manning buyout is silly…” Send him to the AHL.

    Sekera and Russell are not bad enough players to consider buying out IMO. I’d love to see one of them traded without retention, but in addition to extending the number of years you’re paying these guys I don’t think you can replace them now with a 3M UFA who is any better.

  11. Coiler says:

    Hoping for a solid game tonight.
    No blow outs, just a hard grind it out flurry of goals, amazing saves and impact body checks. In no particular order of course.

    To say that this has been the weirdest set of playoffs in the last few years would be a grand understatement. I don’t think there has been the interest in these finals as there has been in years past but the hockey has been good nonetheless. Kudos to both teams and I hope they end up singing Gloria to their hearts content in St Loo later this evening. That team’s achievement this post season has been miraculous and offers a glimmer of hope to us.

  12. Jordan says:

    godot10:
    A Manning buyout is silly, like the Gryba one was.Just bury them in the minors, and get the contract off the books by next summer.

    A Manning buyout is only silly if your owner doesn’t care about the money. It saves him real dollars. How do you feel about giving away hundreds of thousands of dollars to pay someone for a job they aren’t doing?

    OriginalPouzar: The hitting Lucic does these days does not help win hockey games.

    Of course, Samorukov is an egregious over-pay but I don’t see anything positive Lucic is doing on the ice – he had, what 2 games last year where his “hitting” helped lead to a win?

    OP This quote is from the thread yesterday, and I wanted to address it.

    As we’ve seen many times in the playoffs this year, Lucic’s strengths are most impactful in the second season. Especially when playing against the same team over and over again. His ability to grind other teams D-men can be a significant asset, especially over an extended series.

    Two of the games St. Louis won were done on the back of injuring one of Boston’s starting 6 D. That has real value over the course of a 7 game series, let alone 4 series’.

    I will admit to playing devil’s advocate here, as I have been in favour of trading the man since last off-season. However, I would not be against keeping him IF the rest of the roster can carry him.

    He’s exactly the kind of player I’d want to have for an extended playoff series against a team like the Blues.

    Not saying I wouldn’t trade him now if we could, but simply reminding everyone that this player has value.

  13. PinkSocks says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Samorukov’s draft+2 any better than Bear’s?

    Manning buyout gotta be in consideration

    It needs to not be a consideration. $1,175,000 this year by burying him in the minors, or pay 916k this season and 667k next season. Better to eat the $200k pill this year and have him off the books next season altogether.

  14. Dustylegnd says:

    russ99:
    I’d suspect that front office changes/additions are made after the draft.

    Go Bruins!

    Agreed, curious that there was an official announcement that KG would be AGM but no affirmation that Howson or Green will be staying on, I suspect that post draft additional changes will be made

    I admit I have a deep distrust of all things Green because I do believe he had a large role in the Reinhart fiasco, at the end of the day Chia is responsible for pulling the trigger on that deal but I still blame Green

    My distrust of Green is compounded by the fact that according to Stauffer Joel Erikson-Ek was the player the Oil had targeted in the 16 slot which makes perfect sense based on recent drafdt history…yeesh

    I read about what a dedicated and hard working amateur scout he is and how he spends tireless hours in rinks around NA….maybe if he was better at hiring and managing a competent staff he wouldn’t have to spend so many hours in rinks looking for a player that can actually make the team and contribute draft +3

    I look forward to more managerial change and hope for an outside the box thinker to be blessed with real responsibility

  15. bwar says:

    Personally I’m against any buyout. I feel like most the the players on your buyout list could be traded with 50% salary retention. Manning is the exception there but I don’t think him riding out his contract in the minors hurts the team much. I still think someone would be interested in Lucic at $3M for the next four years. Sekera $2.75M for two seasons isn’t that bad. Russell at $2M to play on someones third pair is pretty good. You might even get a couple seventh rounders back in the trades!

  16. Jaxon says:

    jp:
    Jaxon,

    Are you at all worried Tomasino was being zoomed? He was 5th in points and 7th in P/game on that Niagra team. Any idea who he was playing with? They had 4 guys at 1.5 P/game or better.

    There is a distinct possibility, but there are a few things that sooth that worry. Many players have played on great CHL teams and he scored as high as they did. For example, Taylor Hall had great teammates (Ellis, Fowler, Henrique, Nemisz, Panik, Kassian) even though he was clearly the best. Also, I use primary points to rank players, so by definition, Tomasino was getting 1st assists and goals, meaning he was likely more of a driver than he is getting credit for. From the highlights I watched, he often did things to create plays using his speed and touches. He’d chip pucks to himself and skate around D to gain the zone and things like that. He’s fast and creative and has a great shot. The scouting reports have very few negatives and he was one of only 5 players to get a 60% in skating, Hockey Sense, and Puck Skills in Pronman’s top 107 players guide, 5! The others being Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and Fensore. Those 3 skills are probably the top 3 needed to become and impact NHLer. He’s not big, but has decent NHL size (Hughes and Fensore do not), so there is no worry of him dominating junior based on a size advantage against other teenagers. I really feel he’s a safe bet to be a solid player.

  17. dustrock says:

    LT – one fascinating thing for me with prospects is how winning organizations develop them compared to mediocre or poor organizations.

    I don’t think it’s a coincidence the last real time we had significant developed players take the team on a playoff run in 2006, guys like Horcoff, Stoll, Pisani were developed properly, given the correct deployment, and were part of a winning team.

    I’ve commented a couple of times this playoffs on teams like Boston, who is rightly being praised for the impact their picks (Acciari, Heinen, Kuraly, Carlo, etc) have had.

    But would a Kuraly or Heinen have developed properly on a team like the Oilers?

    If you go back to a junior team for D+1 season and you’re on a crappy team, does that affect development? What about the AHL team?

    Would Draisaitl have developed similarly if he hadn’t been traded to Kelowna for their WHL Championship and Memorial Cup run?

    Would Samorukov be as high on the radar as he is now if he didn’t have the huge playoff run?

    There are can’t-miss prospects who will make it no matter what but so much has to depend on the team the prospect plays on.

  18. dustrock says:

    In fact, if I’m a team looking at drafting Krebs, I’d want to make sure he gets traded from Winnipeg, who is likely to be crap again next year.

    We already talk about certain prospects who are too good for going back to the CHL but can’t play in the AHL.

    Getting a guy like Krebs to go back to another terrible season with a terrible season just sounds like a recipe for disaster.

  19. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Who does Grant have at #8?

    McCagg
    Mock Draft: Boldy.
    Ranking: Seider.

    Boisvert has Cozens ranked #8.

  20. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks

  21. BONE207 says:

    While a food fight might be more palatable, no pun intended, I hope Old Dutch drills down on why some of the draft day decisions came about. Why the Reinhart deal or why Jesse didn’t stay in Finland etc.

    Maddening this Disorganization & enlightenment would ease my mind.

  22. BONE207 says:

    J-Bo:
    A special announcement?? It better be that Paul Almeida is joining you again for an amazing Saturday show!! The two of you together was my favorite 2 hours of sports radio!!

    I’ll buy that for a dollar

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mckenzie speculating there will be a good number of buyouts this off-season.

    Buy out period starts 48 hours after the cup is awarded.

    I’m guessing guys like Phaneuf, Perry, etc.

    As for the Oilers, I can’t think of a single player where it makes sense to buy them out this off-season.

    Only someone like Manning and they could bury him in the AHL for only a couple hundred grand more without the extra new term penalty. It does get him off the 50 man though…..

    Sekera? No way – don’t buy out legit NHL d-men (very possibly legit NHL 2nd pairing d-men) and add 2 years of term.

    Lucic? Way too egregious.

    Gagner? Ya, maybe, but, given organizational depth, he’s the “skill” we need in the bottom 6 – I am in favor of a trade to Ottawa for a very middling asset – Ottawa buys him out and the Oilers sign him at a third or half the current price.

  24. Professor Q says:

    dustrock:
    In fact, if I’m a team looking at drafting Krebs, I’d want to make sure he gets traded from Winnipeg, who is likely to be crap again next year.

    We already talk about certain prospects who are too good for going back to the CHL but can’t play in the AHL.

    Getting a guy like Krebs to go back to another terrible season with a terrible season just sounds like a recipe for disaster.

    Maybe they become like Vancouver and Prince Albert, and go from being terrible to challenging for the Memorial Cup?

  25. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If everyone buys out significant contracts, then does anyone have space to re-sign anyone?

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think there are any RFAs left that the Russell signing would effect.

    I’m confident Larkin and Vesel won’t be offered contracts. Callahan is a UFA and I don’t think they’ll bring him back.

    JP and Khaira are important assets that will be signed.

    Rattie and Rieder are the other two, they likely won’t be back but aren’t competing with the likes of Patrick Russell.

  27. OilSafety says:

    Is there a way for the Oil to make a trade that brings them both Elhers and Trouba?

    Elhers and Trouba to Oil for #8, 2nd in 2021, Russell, Puljujarvi, Bear and Manning. Jets buy out or bury Manning.

    Oil obviously need to make cap room for this and I am assuming Trouba stays, but that would give us our 1RD and shore up the top six with a proven scorer.

    I do not pretend to be good at these proposals, but is there a ‘seismic’ deal available to use a Bob Mackenzie phrase.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping they can trade Hawkey’s rights before August 15 to get a pick back – hopefully before this year’s draft so that pick can be this year. Of course, the pick would be conditional on Hawkey sign with the team but that’s usually all but agreed to beforehand.

  29. Rondo says:

    Jaxon: McCagg
    Mock Draft: Boldy.
    Ranking: Seider.

    Boisvert has Cozens ranked #8.

    I guess Leon D would have intel on Seider. Still think it will come down to
    Vasili Podkolzin, Broberg, Boldy and Krebs

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    I look for some on that list of “NHL prospects” to move up to the category of Quality Prospect” – namely, Krill Maksimov and Kailer Yamamoto.

    Lots of down verbal on Kailer but, to me, that’s all due to injury and the organization not allowing him to get comfortable in the AHL. Once he got comfortable in the A, he showed to be a top AHL forward and, assuming healthy this year and the organization not calling him up after 10 points in 11 games, I anticipate he’ll be around PPG and either a late season call-up or a real option for 2020/21.

    Makismov is a bit more unknown as he hasn’t played pro yet but he had another really good year. The goal numbers cooled off a bit in the 2nd half but, from accounts, after Niagara stocked up, he was asked to take on more of a “2-way role” and his offensive opportunities decreased a bit. He is a plus penalty killer and defensive player at the junior level. That shot is already a plus NHL shot and, if he makes it, that shot might just score him alot of goals. He may never play an NHL game – he may score 40 one year.

    Hey, what if one of them just pops and moves up to “Impact Talent”? It happens to other organizations – at some point its going to the the Oilers than make a 5th round pick that scores 40 in a season – maybe its Krill Maksimov?

  31. Coiler says:

    OilSafety:
    Is there a way for the Oil to make a trade that brings them both Elhers and Trouba?

    Elhers and Trouba to Oil for #8, 2nd in 2021, Russell, Puljujarvi, Bear and Manning. Jets buy out or bury Manning.

    Oil obviously need to make cap room for this and I am assuming Trouba stays, but that would give us our 1RD and shore up the top six with a proven scorer.

    I do not pretend to be good at these proposals, but is there a ‘seismic’ deal available to use a Bob Mackenzie phrase.

    I couldn’t see Winnipeg making that trade as they are still in a win-now mode and the assets they would getting from Edmonton wouldn’t help them in that regard.

  32. PinkSocks says:

    Considering that Krebs just had his Achilles sliced in half, I’d be more wary of selecting him. Pick BPA no matter what, and at 8 I don’t believe it is Krebs. Just don’t shit the bed on this pick. Whether it is Cozens or Dach or Boldy, it doesn’t matter, just no top-10 mistakes.

  33. dustrock says:

    Jaxon: McCagg
    Mock Draft: Boldy.
    Ranking: Seider.

    Boisvert has Cozens ranked #8.

    How is Seider ranked at #8? I am having trouble with some of the high ranking for what seems like an underwhelming D class.

    Other than York for sure and probably Broberg, I’m not sure there’s anybody I’d even take in the top 20.

  34. PinkSocks says:

    OilSafety:
    Is there a way for the Oil to make a trade that brings them both Elhers and Trouba?

    Elhers and Trouba to Oil for #8, 2nd in 2021, Russell, Puljujarvi, Bear and Manning. Jets buy out or bury Manning.

    Oil obviously need to make cap room for this and I am assuming Trouba stays, but that would give us our 1RD and shore up the top six with a proven scorer.

    I do not pretend to be good at these proposals, but is there a ‘seismic’ deal available to use a Bob Mackenzie phrase.

    Trouba pretty clearly wants to be south of the border. Unless he is signed to a max term contract, I’m not trading anything substantial for him.

  35. PinkSocks says:

    dustrock: How is Seider ranked at #8?I am having trouble with some of the high ranking for what seems like an underwhelming D class.

    Other than York for sure and probably Broberg, I’m not sure there’s anybody I’d even take in the top 20.

    Agreed. With Seider I believe recency bias is playing the big role from his iihf performance last month.

  36. Jaxon says:

    Cozens and Beecher would be amazing.

    2020/21(/22?)
    Cozens – Mcdavid – Puljujarvi
    Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
    Benson – Beecher – Maksimov
    Khaira – McLeod – Kassian
    Marody/Safin

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Samorukov/Jones/Lagesson – Bear/Benning/Persson/

    That’s a big, fast lineup. Playoff hockey. 13 plus size players and not many with a lack of speed. Benson and Marody may be the slowest players on that roster.

    Forwards touted for their 2-way play: Cozens, Nuge, Benson, Beecher.
    Good bets as PK options: Beecher, McLeod, Khaira, Kassian.

    Still betting on Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, though. Right now, they are questions marks that need answers. Hopefully, they turn a corner this season.

  37. texmex says:

    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    6m
    The #Oilers have agreed to terms with Jay Woodcroft on a contract extension through the 2021-22 season. The 42-year-old led the @Condors to a 42-21-3-2 record in 2018-19, earning the Western Conference regular season title, as well as their first-ever @TheAHL playoff berth.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: I hope Holland doesn’t trade 1st rounders in the deal as Lowetide predicted as a possible option.

    In his interview with Nugent Brown, Holland was express that he doesn’t foresee a scenario where he would trade the 1st round pick (but would obviously listen if a substantial offer was on the table).

    Holland values the draft and prospects, this we know – its great because concern about a trade of the 8th for a soon to be UFA type player is essentially gone.

  39. Jaxon says:

    dustrock: How is Seider ranked at #8?I am having trouble with some of the high ranking for what seems like an underwhelming D class.

    Other than York for sure and probably Broberg, I’m not sure there’s anybody I’d even take in the top 20.

    A bit of recency bias with Seider and small sample size for sure. He performed really well against elite men NHLers at the World Championship on a subpar team with Draisaitl. He also did very well at the combine in both the interviews and the physical tests. He’s fast, smart, and physical. He may have been underrated all year due to lack of exposure and lack of competition, but to see how well he did against NHL players at the worlds opened some eyes. Maybe his climb is warranted. I don’t know. It’s a risk. I’d definitely lean on Draisaitl’s appraisal of his teammate. I’m sure he’d have a good sense of how he stacks up to Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, etc when you play and practice with a player.

  40. Pouzar says:

    texmex:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    6m
    The #Oilers have agreed to terms with Jay Woodcroft on a contract extension through the 2021-22 season. The 42-year-old led the @Condors to a 42-21-3-2 record in 2018-19, earning the Western Conference regular season title, as well as their first-ever @TheAHL playoff berth.

    Music!

  41. John Chambers says:

    I see Minnesota as an excellent trade partner for a few reasons:

    1) At #8 there is going to be a hyped USHL player available (Zegras, Caufield, or Boldy) who won’t be there at #12.
    2) Minny is getting younger and re-stocking their talent (eg Coyle for Donato)
    3) Minny has a top-pair RD from Edmonton who is UFA in a year.

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    I’m posting this again because I’m still looking for answers. Why do many fans believe Benning cannot play top-4 and thus has little value? Why is a guy posting the numbers below, as a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman, being treated as expendable trade-bait? Is it simply a case of the eye-test / memory being inaccurate due to “single events”?
    ____________________________________________________________________________

    Q: Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.

    To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

    2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
    2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
    2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

    Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

    So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

    TOI: 1250:19
    CF%: 52.79
    FF%: 53.00
    SF%: 53.17
    GF%: 55.65

    xGF%: 53.71
    SCF%: 52.75
    SCGF%: 56.99
    HDCF%: 52.69
    HDGF%: 56.72

    Sh%: 9.51
    Sv%: 91.75
    PDO: 1.013

    Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

    With McDavid

    TOI: 420:30
    CF%: 55.19
    FF%: 56.65
    SF%: 56.14
    GF%: 62.96

    xGF%: 56.10
    SCF%: 55.27
    HDCF%: 55.10
    HDGF%: 59.38

    Sh%: 14.05
    Sv%: 90.73
    PDO: 1.048

    Without McDavid:

    TOI: 829:47
    CF%: 51.39
    FF%: 50.88
    SF%: 51.49
    GF%: 49.18

    xGF%: 52.06
    SCF%: 50.97
    HDCF%: 50.80
    HDGF%: 54.29

    Sh%: 8.20
    Sv%: 94.67
    PDO: 1.029

    The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

    And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

    The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

    Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
    Nurse: 44.51
    Russell: 43.87
    Larsson: 43.68
    Klefbom: 40.27
    Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

    For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.

  43. John Chambers says:

    Put a trade together –

    #8 + Ryan McLeod + Brandon Manning + Matt Benning for Jared Spurgeon and #12.

    Y’know – modulo stuff

  44. leadfarmer says:

    Keeping Woodcroft through the 21-22 season. Good news

  45. jtblack says:

    texmex:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    6m
    The #Oilers have agreed to terms with Jay Woodcroft on a contract extension through the 2021-22 season. The 42-year-old led the @Condors to a 42-21-3-2 record in 2018-19, earning the Western Conference regular season title, as well as their first-ever @TheAHL playoff berth.

    how much $$ does an AHL Head Coach make??

  46. Material Elvis says:

    John Chambers:
    Put a trade together –

    #8 + Ryan McLeod + Brandon Manning + Matt Benning for Jared Spurgeon and #12.

    Y’know – modulo stuff

    Interesting proposal John. Not sure if that’s enough to entice Minnesota but they are managed by Fenton so who knows. Spurgeon would be a massive addition to the Oil blue line (figuratively speaking).

  47. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    Put a trade together –

    #8 + Ryan McLeod + Brandon Manning + Matt Benning for Jared Spurgeon and #12.

    Y’know – modulo stuff

    That is an awful lot for one year of Spurgeon.

    Matt Benning and a high 2nd round draft pick (an expansion protected asset) for one year of Spurgeon.

    #8 and Manning for #12…is arguably equivalent.

  48. slopitch says:

    texmex:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    6m
    The #Oilers have agreed to terms with Jay Woodcroft on a contract extension through the 2021-22 season. The 42-year-old led the @Condors to a 42-21-3-2 record in 2018-19, earning the Western Conference regular season title, as well as their first-ever @TheAHL playoff berth.

    Beauty! We all talk about trading down, maybe buying out players and this and that. The best thing that can happen to this team is another great development year for guys like Samo, Bouch, Marod, McLeod, Benson in the AHL. Benson and Marody might just make the team but thats a side point.

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Mckenzie speculating there will be a good number of buyouts this off-season.

    Buy out period starts 48 hours after the cup is awarded.

    I’m guessing guys like Phaneuf, Perry, etc.

    As for the Oilers, I can’t think of a single player where it makes sense to buy them out this off-season.

    Only someone like Manning and they could bury him in the AHL for only a couple hundred grand more without the extra new term penalty. It does get him off the 50 man though…..

    Sekera? No way – don’t buy out legit NHL d-men (very possibly legit NHL 2nd pairing d-men) and add 2 years of term.

    Lucic? Way too egregious.

    Gagner? Ya, maybe, but, given organizational depth, he’s the “skill” we need in the bottom 6 – I am in favor of a trade to Ottawa for a very middling asset – Ottawa buys him out and the Oilers sign him at a third or half the current price.

    Maybe Lucic. I wouldn’t, but maybe it makes sense to Holland. Here’s why (playing the devil’s advocate here):

    The Oilers only have a cap crunch in 2019-20, there’s plenty of room next summer and beyond. If Lucic is not bought out or traded for another equally bad contract, he’ll have to stay. That’s a $6M cap hit and an unhappy player, nobody wants that in their dressing room. Whereas bought out, the cap hit this coming year is $3.625M, savings of $2.375M on the cap. Lucic gets replaced at 4LW by Gambardella or Benson, Puljujarvi and Khaira are signed for $2.5M combined and Brodziak and Manning buried in the AHL. Now Holland has $11M to sign 5 guys, or $10.35 for 4 new players if he allows for both Benson and Gambardella on the roster.

    Now, I know its not the Holland way to bring rookies in quickly, but bear with me on this. $10.4M could bring in some decent help:

    1B goalie: $2.5M
    2RW: $4M
    3C: $2.5M
    3LW: $1.4M

    Now, lets put some names to those, just for fun. I’ll say Elliott ($2.5 x 1), Connolly ($4 x 4), Filppula ($2.5M x 1) and Agostino ($.95 x 1). That’s barring any trades of course.

    So if you carry this forward, in 2020-21 you’ll see that there’s loads of cap space, despite the Nurse contract and the huge Lucic buyout cap hit. A full $20.3M comes off the books plus the cap should go up by $3M or so. Nurse could cost $6.2M, Lucic cap hit is $2M higher so that leaves us with $15.1M to fill 9 roster spots. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but several things: (1) all the open roster spots are bottom-6, bottom pairing and backup goalie, (2) several of them will be able to be filled with prospects, (3) there are several RFA’s that won’t be expensive to re-sign or can be traded for other assets, (4) Sekera and/or Russell should be easily moved that summer, and (5) one of them likely has been pushed out of his job by then anyhow.

    Again, I wouldn’t do it, but I could see Holland at least contemplating it. It strengthens the team this fall and gives a little more cushion for the prospects to ripen.

    Surely someone is interested in Lucic at 50% retained, even if we have to add a B- or C-level prospect or two?

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Keith Gretzky mentioned yesterday that they won’t be “pencilling in” any AHL or CHL players in to the lineup and expressed that they’ve made that mistake before and its hurt them.

    That’s great to hear.

    To me it means that they won’t go in to camp planing on Jones in the top 6 D or Benson as a 2LW (or middle 6 LW) even though Jones looks like he probably is NHL ready and Benson on the verge thereof as well.

    Of course, they can “battle for jobs” (even though camp and preseason means little with respect to NHL readiness) and may break camp with the team but the organization won’t be “counting on it”.

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Here is hoping they can trade Hawkey’s rights before August 15 to get a pick back – hopefully before this year’s draft so that pick can be this year.Of course, the pick would be conditional on Hawkey sign with the team but that’s usually all but agreed to beforehand.

    I was thinking the same thing. May as well get something for him.

  52. slopitch says:

    Im not sure about trading back. The consensus rankings have a pretty clear tier from picks 5-10.

    source: https://twitter.com/Scouching/status/1138553779631116289

    If you go below pick 10, you need to either a) get paid or b) free up the Lucic

    Step up and pick Caufield, Boldy, Cozens or whomever is the play imo. You can trade down and draft Kaliev or Seider but you need to get compensated.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Cozens and Beecher would be amazing.

    2020/21(/22?)
    Cozens – Mcdavid – Puljujarvi
    Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
    Benson – Beecher – Maksimov
    Khaira – McLeod – Kassian
    Marody/Safin

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Samorukov/Jones/Lagesson – Bear/Benning/Persson/

    That’s a big, fast lineup. Playoff hockey. 13 plus size players and not many with a lack of speed. Benson and Marody may be the slowest players on that roster.

    Forwards touted for their 2-way play: Cozens, Nuge, Benson, Beecher.
    Good bets as PK options: Beecher, McLeod, Khaira, Kassian.

    Still betting on Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, though. Right now, they are questions marks that need answers. Hopefully, they turn a corner this season.

    Cozens is a righty, he’ll slide over to cover whichever of Puljujarvi or Yamamoto falls. And by that point we’ll have plenty of cap space, so picking up a UFA like Kreider to play 1LW shouldn’t be a problem – another big, fast guy with skill.

    Cooking with GAS.

  54. Munny says:

    Pouzar: Music!

    And for a change, it’s not The Blues.

  55. defmn says:

    slopitch: Beauty! The best thing that can happen to this team is another great development year for guys like Samo, Bouch, Marod, McLeod, Benson in the AHL. Benson and Marody might just make the team but thats a side point.

    Agreed. And just to add the obvious they get to do it with the stability of the same HC instead of having to adjust to a different personality etc.

    So far so good since Holland came on board. Nothing major yet but just a series of “housekeeping” moves that have addressed past concerns handled without fanfare or drama. To me it shows a methodical measured approach which fits in with Holland’s “stability” mantra.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Samorukov’s draft+2 any better than Bear’s?

    Manning buyout gotta be in consideration

    Ummmm, very much so.

    Forget about Samorukov’s offence – he’s a defence first player that is an aggressive and very good defender – he was fantastic on the boards in his own zone, consistently coming away with the puck. His skating alone gives him a massive edge over Bear who still struggles with speed on the rush and puck retrievals (and, although not speed related, struggles in battles).

  57. dustrock says:

    Jaxon,

    Oh boy Cozens and Beecher would be a dream scenario for me

  58. RonnieB says:

    John Chambers:
    Put a trade together –

    #8 + Ryan McLeod + Brandon Manning + Matt Benning for Jared Spurgeon and #12.

    Y’know – modulo stuff

    Seriously ? Trade down 4 spots and throw in Benning and McLeod for 1 year of Spurgeon, who will turn 30 years old in November (just in case you’re thinking of re-signing him long term) ?

  59. Bag of Pucks says:

    The current poor arrows for Puljujarvi and Yamamoto leave me feeling decidedly underwhelmed with Gretzky and Green.

    As always, I’m sure that will be a cue for some to immediately leap to the defence of these players and blame the development approach.

    But really, what amazingly smart thing did CBJ, WPG, & CAL do to ‘develop’ Dubois, Laine & Tkachuk? They put them on the pro roster and played them.

    Find smart players. Keep smart players.

  60. Death By Misadventure says:

    J-Bo:
    A special announcement?? It better be that Paul Almeida is joining you again for an amazing Saturday show!! The two of you together was my favorite 2 hours of sports radio!!

    Since Bruce is there when the announcement is made, I’m going to say LT and Bruce will get their own Saturday show.

    Show will be called What Sam Pollock Did.

  61. Death By Misadventure says:

    Jaxon:
    Beecher is a very interesting prospect for #38 (***EDIT!!! I MISTAKENLY WROTE #8! NOPE***). While I’m not a fan of picking USNTDP players in the top 8 except Hughes (consensus by scouts), Turcotte (Adjusted 5v5 P1/60 is highest after McDavid and Crosby in last 15 years), and Caufield (goal scoring is elite), I would definitely gamble on a fast, big, defensively solid player who scored at a solid Adjusted 5v5 P1/60 rate. He’s 6’3.25″, 212lbs and one of the fastest skaters in the draft.

    2019–Jack Hughes–26.409
    2014–Nikolaj Ehlers–26.06
    2008–Tyler Ennis–26.04
    2013–Max Domi–26.01
    2014–LeonDraisaitl–25.93
    2019–John Beecher–25.867
    2016–Clayton Keller–25.67
    2005–Steve Downie–25.41
    2019–Dylan Cozens–25.395

    That is some great company. The caveat being, that he only played an estimated 10:54 of 5v5 icetime, which is the lowest on the above list. As I’ve tried to establish before, low TOI is a pretty good indicator of possible flops with high scoring rates. That said, for the same reason I’m wary of drafting his teammates too high, the TOI may not apply to USNTDP players as it does to everyone else, so maybe it is something I’d risk at #38 if he’s still available, and that is in the range that many lists have him going.

    McCagg’s guide has a section where he polls 4 veteran scouts for the top players at certain aspects. Beecher was the 5th best skater, and 2nd best defensive forward by his poll. That’s a player I want at #38. A pretty safe bet to be a solid 3rd line center and PK specialist (speed and defensive forward). McCagg has him ranked #39.

    Cozens and Beecher would be a very promising draft in my opinion. Fingers crossed. Two other players that interest me at #38 are Lassi Thompson and Dom Fensore.

    The more I look at this draft the more I think two things:

    1. The top 8 looks strong. Not generational, but not a weak draft by any means.

    2. There is not much difference between 9 and approx 45. In other words the draft has a long tail. If that makes sense.

  62. Death By Misadventure says:

    Dustylegnd: I admit I have a deep distrust of all things Green because I do believe he had a large role in the Reinhart fiasco, at the end of the day Chia is responsible for pulling the trigger on that deal but I still blame Green

    I hear that and agree completely.

    I’m shocked by two things:

    1. That Chia actually caved and did it when it what so obviously wrong.

    2. Green was not canned a year or so later when it was so blatantly obvious that even the Oilers had to conceded that it didn’t work.

  63. Death By Misadventure says:

    PinkSocks: just no top-10 mistakes

    Don’t worry missing on #8 will not even be one of the Top 20 worse mistakes by the Oilers. In the last 5 years even 🙂

  64. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I’m posting this again because I’m still looking for answers. Why do many fans believe Benning cannot play top-4 and thus has little value? Why is a guy posting the numbers below, as a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman, being treated as expendable trade-bait? Is it simply a case of the eye-test / memory being inaccurate due to “single events”?
    ____________________________________________________________________________

    Q: Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.

    To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

    2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
    2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
    2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

    Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

    So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

    TOI: 1250:19
    CF%: 52.79
    FF%: 53.00
    SF%: 53.17
    GF%: 55.65

    xGF%: 53.71
    SCF%: 52.75
    SCGF%: 56.99
    HDCF%: 52.69
    HDGF%: 56.72

    Sh%: 9.51
    Sv%: 91.75
    PDO: 1.013

    Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

    With McDavid

    TOI: 420:30
    CF%: 55.19
    FF%: 56.65
    SF%: 56.14
    GF%: 62.96

    xGF%: 56.10
    SCF%: 55.27
    HDCF%: 55.10
    HDGF%: 59.38

    Sh%: 14.05
    Sv%: 90.73
    PDO: 1.048

    Without McDavid:

    TOI: 829:47
    CF%: 51.39
    FF%: 50.88
    SF%: 51.49
    GF%: 49.18

    xGF%: 52.06
    SCF%: 50.97
    HDCF%: 50.80
    HDGF%: 54.29

    Sh%: 8.20
    Sv%: 94.67
    PDO: 1.029

    The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

    And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

    The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

    Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
    Nurse: 44.51
    Russell: 43.87
    Larsson: 43.68
    Klefbom: 40.27
    Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

    For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.

    Thanks so much for this.

  65. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The reason why I’d be willing to give him an overage year is to see if his offense can develop against easier comp. I think in the A, first year anyways, he will be too focused on keeping his head above water defensively.

  66. Munny says:

    defmn: Agreed. And just to add the obvious they get to do it with the stability of the same HC instead of having to adjust to a different personality etc.

    I think you nailed it. The signing of Woodcroft is a clear sign that “Stability” is more than a mere soundbite..

  67. Jaxon says:

    Death By Misadventure: The more I look at this draft the more I think two things:

    1. The top 8 looks strong. Not generational, but not a weak draft by any means.

    2. There is not much difference between 9 and approx 45. In other words the draft has a long tail. If that makes sense.

    Agreed, that makes sense. There will be some gems to be found at #38, if they’re willing to take a risk. That player will have some warts but could also have a pretty high ceiling. Beecher, Fensore, Lassi Thomson, Pitlick, Oil King M Robertson, McMichael, Beaucage, Keppen, Lagare.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I’m posting this again because I’m still looking for answers. Why do many fans believe Benning cannot play top-4 and thus has little value? Why is a guy posting the numbers below, as a 25-year-old right-shot defenseman, being treated as expendable trade-bait? Is it simply a case of the eye-test / memory being inaccurate due to “single events”?
    ____________________________________________________________________________

    Q: Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.

    To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

    2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
    2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
    2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

    Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

    So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

    TOI: 1250:19
    CF%: 52.79
    FF%: 53.00
    SF%: 53.17
    GF%: 55.65

    xGF%: 53.71
    SCF%: 52.75
    SCGF%: 56.99
    HDCF%: 52.69
    HDGF%: 56.72

    Sh%: 9.51
    Sv%: 91.75
    PDO: 1.013

    Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

    With McDavid

    TOI: 420:30
    CF%: 55.19
    FF%: 56.65
    SF%: 56.14
    GF%: 62.96

    xGF%: 56.10
    SCF%: 55.27
    HDCF%: 55.10
    HDGF%: 59.38

    Sh%: 14.05
    Sv%: 90.73
    PDO: 1.048

    Without McDavid:

    TOI: 829:47
    CF%: 51.39
    FF%: 50.88
    SF%: 51.49
    GF%: 49.18

    xGF%: 52.06
    SCF%: 50.97
    HDCF%: 50.80
    HDGF%: 54.29

    Sh%: 8.20
    Sv%: 94.67
    PDO: 1.029

    The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

    And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

    The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

    Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
    Nurse: 44.51
    Russell: 43.87
    Larsson: 43.68
    Klefbom: 40.27
    Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

    For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.

    That’s compelling.

    Good post.

  69. russ99 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    There’s obviously a good case that he’s at least an average and could be an above average puck mover and offensive D.

    But it’s the other way without the puck where things are egregious. Maybe moments are amplified, but there’s a lot of moments of blown coverage, misplays on odd man breaks, and just getting plain beat. He’s a lot like Gryba this way, he can be physical on the wall, but poor in coverage, especially poor when there’s little support.

    All while being sheltered on the third pair with lesser minutes and comp, as opposed to Nurse and Russell who both stepped up and did pretty well in substantially more minutes and tougher comp due to injury.

    He’s 25, he’s pretty much what he is. If we were in rebuilding mode, I’d have a lot more patience for this player, plus he’s on his first RFA deal, and his salary will only go up for an incomplete player.

  70. Wolfpack says:

    Since Holland has stated that his intent is the playoffs next year, I think that prying Spurgeon away from the Wild is exactly the type of move you have to look at. Even though they might not be able to extend him beyond the one year, that one year would be very important because:
    1. The Oilers are a better team with Spurgeon on the blueline
    2. If they are out of the playoff race Spurgeon becomes an asset at the deadline if he is not signed
    3. If Spurgeon doesn’t sign there will be more cap room avaialble in 2020-2021 (outside of other moves)
    4. Barring injuries it pushes down Bouchard and gives him a season to improve in the minors

    If the Oilers could work out something around a prospect and a swap of first round picks, I’d actually be down with that. If the Oilers start to do things right under Holland then that first round pick should be 2-3 years away anyway.

  71. jtblack says:

    Draft ……

    #8 – COZENS
    #38 – BEECHER
    #85 – B. MURRAY
    #100 – MUTALA

    That’s 4 good lotto tickets ….

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99: Where’s the Against% numbers?

    All the percentage numbers take into account both For and Against. I’ll use goals to demonstrate:

    GF: 64
    GA: 51

    GF%: 55.65

    The formula looks like this: =GF/(GF+GA)

    So GF% is his goal share, how many goals scored for Edmonton as a percentage of total goals scored while Benning was on the ice. At 50%, your opponent is getting just as many events (shots, goals, corsi’s, etc) as you are, i.e. its a stalemate. Anything above 50% is good, anything below is bad.

    Does that make sense? I’m not very good at explaining things, you’re probably more confused than ever!

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,
    But it’s the other way without the puck where things are egregious. Maybe moments are amplified, but there’s a lot of moments of blown coverage, misplays on odd man breaks, and just getting plain beat. He’s a lot like Gryba this way, he can be physical on the wall, but poor in coverage, especially poor when there’s little support.

    This is what I’m trying to determine. I see some of the things you mention too, but my point is that the good outweighs the bad. Somehow most fans seem to notice / remember only the bad with Benning and therefore he’s not valued as a player, yet 3 years worth of data tell a different story. Is the data wrong? Or are we deceived by the eyes? I’m thinking it’s a case of “when he screws up, he screws up BIG” and the mistakes are what we remember after the game, and all the little things he did that contributed to the Oilers being the better team when he’s on the ice get overshadowed.

  74. dustrock says:

    Jaxon: Agreed, that makes sense. There will be some gems to be found at #38, if they’re willing to take a risk. That player will have some warts but could also have a pretty high ceiling. Beecher, Fensore, Lassi Thomson, Pitlick, Oil King M Robertson, McMichael, Beaucage, Keppen, Lagare.

    I truly wonder where Fensore will go. I would bet we could get him in the 3rd or 4th round.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:

    Manning buyout gotta be in consideration

    The Manning buyout saves about $200K more than burying him in the minors and doesn’t create that extra year of term.

    The only reason I can see to buy him out is if they need the spot on the 50.

    They may want to instead of burying him for reputation reasons and perhaps NHLPA pressure given he likely could find work in the NHL (although they didn’t do that with Fayne).

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Psyche:
    Is there a maximum number of buyouts a team can carry at one time?

    Oilers have Pouliot and Gryba (ugh) on the books for 2019-20. Can they add 2-3 more?

    My preference is for a trade of either Sekera or Russell (no sweetener, with minimal or no $$$ retained) and a buyout of whomever can not be traded (of Sekera and Russell). As Godot10 said, “A Manning buyout is silly…” Send him to the AHL.

    No maximum number of buyouts – there is a maximum number of retained salary transactions (can only have three on the books).

    Agree on the buyout of Manning being unnecessary unless they need the spot on the 50.

    Why in the world would they buy out Sekera? An actual legit NHL d-man and reasonably likely an actual legit 2nd pairing NHL d-man.

    They man not be able to get a clean disposition of Russell (although they may) but, subject to his NTC being an issue, I do imagine a real market for him at $3M so I see no reason to buy him out if they can trade him with retention (and probably get a middling asset back).

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    All while being sheltered on the third pair with lesser minutes and comp, as opposed to Nurse and Russell who both stepped up and did pretty well in substantially more minutes and tougher comp due to injury.

    No, all of the numbers I cite were when Benning was playing top-4 minutes. I removed all of his bottom-pairing partners from the numbers. Nothing you see in the post above was created during “sheltered” minutes. And the numbers don’t show that Russell did “pretty well” playing on the 2nd pairing.

    russ99:
    He’s 25, he’s pretty much what he is. If we were in rebuilding mode, I’d have a lot more patience for this player, plus he’s on his first RFA deal, and his salary will only go up for an incomplete player.

    “He’s pretty much what he is” – I’m having some difficulty determining what he is! I agree that he likely won’t develop much more as a player, but as is he seems to be better than most think.

    I’m not sure what you mean by not having patience with the player, he’s WINNING his minutes in the top-4 and his GF% results without McDavid are easily the best of any of our defenders. What are you waiting for?

    As for his salary, he’s on a good contract for another year, I’d like to see exactly what we have in him (and the prospects beneath him) before making a decision on his future. I’m certain that Holland is in this camp as well based on his comments about Nurse, so I’m not concerned about next summer. Benning is still an RFA next summer, so worst-case scenario his rights can be traded for a pick.

  78. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: GF: 64
    GA: 51

    GF%: 55.65

    The formula looks like this: =GF/(GF+GA)

    ~ Next time you give him GF% 55.65% be sure to also provide the GA% he craves: 44.35%. He’ll need that until he notices they add to 100% ~

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    I’m convinced that this is a schtick.

  80. Jordan says:

    Okay LT – I’ll bite.

    What was the announcement?

    I’ve listened through the Segment with Bruce and either my kindergarten teacher’s pronouncement “Needs to practice active listening skills” still applies, or there was no announcement.

    Or, if there will not be an announcement today, that’s cool too – right now I just want to know if I missed it and need to go listen through it again to find out when it was announced (my OCD is kicking in!)

    Thanks!

  81. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64: ~ Next time you give him GF% 55.65% be sure to give him the GA% he craves: 44.35%. He’ll need that until he notices they add to 100% ~

    😀

  82. John Chambers says:

    I’d be pro-Spurgeon because he would be the team’s best defenseman, pushing Larsson down to second pair. The move would in isolation turn the Oilers into a playoff team.

    I’d also sign him to the Boychuk contract – $6M x 7. Within a year we can jettison Sekera and Russell, with Spurgeon as the lone “luxury” on the blueline.

    He’s an Edmonton kid so there’s some likelihood of re-signing here.

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    PinkSocks: It needs to not be a consideration.$1,175,000 this year by burying him in the minors, or pay 916k this season and 667k next season.Better to eat the $200k pill this year and have him off the books next season altogether.

    I think the contract counting against the limit for a player that’s not going to be a part of anything is a bigger problem than the money.

    I doubt Katz looks at micro numbers, he knows what he wants to make at the end of the season. And Holland knows.

    A playoff run is worth a lot of millions.

  84. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s compelling.

    Yeah, but is it compelting…

  85. Nit64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    I’m convinced that this is a schtick.

    Sure the glass is half full. But is it half empty?

  86. jp says:

    Jaxon: There is a distinct possibility, but there are a few things that sooth that worry. Many players have played on great CHL teams and he scored as high as they did. For example, Taylor Hall had great teammates (Ellis, Fowler, Henrique, Nemisz, Panik, Kassian) even though he was clearly the best. Also, I use primary points to rank players, so by definition, Tomasino was getting 1st assists and goals, meaning he was likely more of a driver than he is getting credit for. From the highlights I watched, he often did things to create plays using his speed and touches. He’d chip pucks to himself and skate around D to gain the zone and things like that. He’s fast and creative and has a great shot. The scouting reports have very few negatives and he was one of only 5 players to get a 60% in skating, Hockey Sense, and Puck Skills in Pronman’s top 107 players guide, 5! The others being Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and Fensore. Those 3 skills are probably the top 3 needed to become and impact NHLer. He’s not big, but has decent NHL size (Hughes and Fensore do not), so there is no worry of him dominating junior based on a size advantage against other teenagers. I really feel he’s a safe bet to be a solid player.

    All good points. Thanks.

  87. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    I’m convinced that this is a schtick.

    Me too. I recall your comment explaining this same issue last week to him. Haha. It has to be.

  88. theWaxCollector says:

    John Chambers,

    I’ve been wondering about a trade to land both Spurgeon and Zucker… not sure if we have the assets to get it done though.

    Something like:

    Spurgeon, 12th, and Zucker

    for

    Puljujarvi, Sekera, 8th, Gagner, and conditional 2020 1st

  89. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: JP and Khaira are important assets that will be signed.

    I’m not so sure. I’m coming around to LT’s reading of the tea leaves on Puljujarvi – that he’s very likely to be moved. I’d much prefer to sign him since his trade value doesn’t approach his upside (however likely he is to reach that at this point), but I’m not sure that’s in the cards.

    Holland’s words in the DNB interview were not very positive on it at all. Asked about JP re-signing he said: “Am I confident that we’re going to get him signed? I’m going to do everything I can to get him signed. Certainly, it takes two to tango.”

    And when asked about the Oilers wingers and needing help there he talked about all of Kassian, Khaira, Gagner, Lucic, Cave and Nygard without mentioning Puljujarvi.

    I’m not sure how you omit JP from that list of players if he’s in the plans for next season. Whether it’s because the player doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, or because the team feels it’s time to move on doesn’t really matter. It seems pretty clear there’s a very good chance he’s not around come fall.

  90. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64: Sure the glass is half full. But is it half empty?

    There’s no proof.

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: There’s no proof.

    There is no spoon.

  92. Lowetide says:

    Jordan:
    Okay LT – I’ll bite.

    What was the announcement?

    I’ve listened through the Segment with Bruce and either my kindergarten teacher’s pronouncement “Needs to practice active listening skills” still applies, or there was no announcement.

    Or, if there will not be an announcement today, that’s cool too – right now I just want to know if I missed it and need to go listen through it again to find out when it was announced (my OCD is kicking in!)

    Thanks!

    Bah! I forgot! Stupid stupid stupid! Thursday, June 27 between 10-11 am I’ll have another round table with the rowdies Woodguy, Bruce and Tyler Hupka.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan: A Manning buyout is only silly if your owner doesn’t care about the money.It saves him real dollars.How do you feel about giving away hundreds of thousands of dollars to pay someone for a job they aren’t doing?

    The primary benefit of the current owner is his ability and willingness to spend whatever funds are required to set the current roster as favorably as possible and for the best possible future lineup.

    He has paid Souray, Fayne, Spooner big money to play in the AHL.

    While I’m sure he cares about a couple hundred thousand dollars, if that negatively effects the current or future cap situation then the “real dollars” should be (and are likely) a non-factor.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Bah! I forgot! Stupid stupid stupid! Thursday, June 27 between 10-11 am I’ll have another round table with the rowdies Woodguy, Bruce and Tyler Hupka.

    That’s not much of an announcement.

    I feel quite let down.

  95. RonnieB says:

    Hey LT:
    The more i read about the draft prospects, the closer i’m getting to your opinion on Kaliyev.
    There’s a piece on the Score app today; well worth the read. I have a lot of time for Steve Staios ( his GM ) and Staios muses about Kaliyev becoming the best player on the team that selects him. Others in the article say he’s a natural scorer like Brett Hull, Lindross, Ovi. Some cite concerns about his defensive play, but there is rebuttal by others.
    With the Flyers advertising #11 for sale, and specifically stating they want more defensemen depth ( side note: that’s not the same as depth defencemen ) i’m wondering about a parlay here…Cole C. at #8 along with a trade for #11, say Yamamoto plus Bear plus Marino), to select Kaliyev.

  96. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s not much of an announcement.

    I feel quite let down.

    Imagine the rest of us. 😉

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: Agreed, curious that there was an official announcement that KG would be AGM but no affirmation that Howson or Green will be staying on, I suspect that post draft additional changes will be made

    Agreed that further changes to the “management team” should be made post draft but I”m not sure the current announcement is really a signal in that regard.

    KG was essentially i a new position over the last number of months and had been replaced in that position – although he’s being re-assigned/re-hired to his old job, it does come with an altered job criteria. A bit of a difference scenario from the others you mention who have been status quo in their positions.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    bwar:
    Personally I’m against any buyout.I feel like most the the players on your buyout list could be traded with 50% salary retention.Manning is the exception there but I don’t think him riding out his contract in the minors hurts the team much.I still think someone would be interested in Lucic at $3M for the next four years.Sekera $2.75M for two seasons isn’t that bad.Russell at $2M to play on someones third pair is pretty good.You might even get a couple seventh rounders back in the trades!

    Absolutely no buyouts – agreed there.

    Sekera at half price isn’t just tradeable, that would have really good value.

    Russell at half price would also have more value than 2 7th rounders.

  99. barry.moore23 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s not much of an announcement.

    I feel quite let down.

    Seriously ? If I remember correctly the last roundtable included a very professional analysis of the Oilers situation at the time – the transcript of which went viral. That event brought us to where we are now. 🙂

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:

    Would Samorukov be as high on the radar as he is now if he didn’t have the huge playoff run?

    There are can’t-miss prospects who will make it no matter what but so much has to depend on the team the prospect plays on.

    Sammy was a third round pick – he wasn’t a can’t-miss prospect when drafted (and he still isn’t now).

    He’s come along ways in those two years but leaving him back in junior for two years post draft wasn’t really a move only a genius would make.

    Signing him weeks after the draft (rare for the third rounder) was solid though.

  101. Psyche says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thank you for the info.

    Sekera’s age and injury history concern me. Combine that with the potential cap relief and I’m considering options. I really like the player, but the circumstances force me to stay open to the possibility of moving him.

    I don’t see the value in Russell at his cost. I don’t see him as a productive D on his off hand. And the left side is deep enough without him. I’m hoping an old-timey GM would love to bring his shot blocking and gritensity to their team. (Maybe Chia whispers as much in Armstrong’s ear in St. Louis?)

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Put a trade together –

    #8 + Ryan McLeod + Brandon Manning + Matt Benning for Jared Spurgeon and #12.

    Y’know – modulo stuff

    Issue is Spurgeon is a one-year rental and the acquisition cost would need to reflect that.

    No way the Oilers should sign him to his retirement contact and pay him for his 30s – he’s oldish to start with.

  103. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sammy was a third round pick – he wasn’t a can’t-miss prospect when drafted (and he still isn’t now).

    He’s come along ways in those two years but leaving him back in junior for two years post draft wasn’t really a move only a genius would make.

    Signing him weeks after the draft (rare for the third rounder) was solid though.

    Agreed about the signing – don’t know if they saw something there already or not.

    I agree that he’d be going back to junior – I just wonder how much having Guelph load up for the playoff run and their great success helped him.

    I’m fascinated whether simply being around a winning organization has some kind of measurable effect on a prospect’s development.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    Im not sure about trading back. The consensus rankings have a pretty clear tier from picks 5-10.

    source: https://twitter.com/Scouching/status/1138553779631116289

    If you go below pick 10, you need to either a) get paid or b) free up the Lucic

    Step up and pick Caufield, Boldy, Cozens or whomever is the play imo. You can trade down and draft Kaliev or Seider but you need to get compensated.

    Is Will Scouch an authority on the consensus?

    Either way, my understanding is the tier goes longer and, of course, that isn’t taking in to account the “off the board”/”riser” picks.

    I’m not really in to trading down but I’m just not sure about the accuracy of the speculated tier.

  105. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sammy was a third round pick – he wasn’t a can’t-miss prospect when drafted (and he still isn’t now).

    He’s come along ways in those two years but leaving him back in junior for two years post draft wasn’t really a move only a genius would make.

    Signing him weeks after the draft (rare for the third rounder) was solid though.

    They signed him because they knew they hit the third round jackpot it does happen every once in while just never to the Oilers. If he keeps improving and his game translates to the AHL then the NHL we may have found our Diamond in the Rough.

  106. slopitch says:

    Authority? I dunno. Hes just taking public data (peoples lists) and organizing it. The math aint hard once you have it tabulated.

    Mackenzie is the authority but i do think Scouch’s data has value as it combines peoples opinions. And i think the oilers should be hesitant to trade down. Or get paid to do so:)

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The reason why I’d be willing to give him an overage year is to see if his offense can develop against easier comp.I think in the A, first year anyways, he will be too focused on keeping his head above water defensively.

    I’m not sure who you are talking about?

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    I’d be pro-Spurgeon because he would be the team’s best defenseman, pushing Larsson down to second pair. The move would in isolation turn the Oilers into a playoff team.

    I’d also sign him to the Boychuk contract – $6M x 7. Within a year we can jettison Sekera and Russell, with Spurgeon as the lone “luxury” on the blueline.

    He’s an Edmonton kid so there’s some likelihood of re-signing here.

    but we don’t want to re-sign him for term. He will be 31 a month in to that new 7 year contract.

    Lets not pay players for their 30s, including past their mid-30s.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s not much of an announcement.

    I feel quite let down.

    I tried for Carole Channing, but she won’t work with you.

  110. franksterra says:

    Lowetide,

    Would Lambchop?

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I’m not so sure. I’m coming around to LT’s reading of the tea leaves on Puljujarvi – that he’s very likely to be moved. I’d much prefer to sign him since his trade value doesn’t approach his upside (however likely he is to reach that at this point), but I’m not sure that’s in the cards.

    Holland’s words in the DNB interview were not very positive on it at all. Asked about JP re-signing he said: “Am I confident that we’re going to get him signed? I’m going to do everything I can to get him signed. Certainly, it takes two to tango.”

    And when asked about the Oilers wingers and needing help there he talked about all of Kassian, Khaira, Gagner, Lucic, Cave and Nygard without mentioning Puljujarvi.

    I’m not sure how you omit JP from that list of players if he’s in the plans for next season. Whether it’s because the player doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, or because the team feels it’s time to move on doesn’t really matter. It seems pretty clear there’s a very good chance he’s not around come fall.

    I definitely agree with you on the sign him as opposed to trade him given likely trade value – I’ve expressed that umpteen time.

    Yes, there is a chance that he’s not signed by the Oilers but my point was mainly that he’s not in a category with Vesel and Larkin, RFAs that aren’t going to be qualified and allowed to move on.

    He’ll be signed (likely by the Oilers but potentially by another NHL team after a trade – not as an unqualified UFA the team is happy to move on from).

  112. John Chambers says:

    Well everyone wants a top defenseman but nobody’s willing to pay for one.

  113. Nit64 says:

    Lowetide: I tried for Carole Channing, but she won’t work with you.

    Not since January.

  114. Gerta Rauss says:

    franksterra:
    Lowetide,

    Would Lambchop?

    I think Carol Channing is a vegetarian

  115. franksterra says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Oops, Lamb chop weren’t Carol Channing…

  116. Lowetide says:

    Nit64: Not since January.

    Maybe that’s why she hasn’t returned my calls.

  117. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    John Chambers,

    Including Benning would be an overpay, IMO, as it opens up another hole on the right side… essentially shuffling the deck chairs while hoping one of Persson/Bear/Jones (etc) can fill the role.

    I think you’re on the right track, but we need guys like S. Jones/Dumba/Slavin/Pesce/Manson/Montour who can move the puck and are on good contracts for the bulk of their mid-late 20s. Problem is they are rarely available.

  118. Glovjuice says:

    Muswell Hillbillies- what a classic.

    Oh, and, whoever was the person who turned me on to Still Corners; thanks. Killer stuff and several songs on my summer mixes. Bam. Time for an Old Milwaukee light.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Psyche:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Thank you for the info.

    Sekera’s age and injury history concern me. Combine that with the potential cap relief and I’m considering options. I really like the player, but the circumstances force me to stay open to the possibility of moving him.

    I don’t see the value in Russell at his cost. I don’t see him as a productive D on his off hand. And the left side is deep enough without him. I’m hoping an old-timey GM would love to bring his shot blocking and gritensity to their team. (Maybe Chia whispers as much in Armstrong’s ear in St. Louis?)

    I’m not as concerned as others (most) with Sekera’s injuries – he is well removed from the more major injury and past the post-recovery recovery phase (where performance is limited for a good 6-12 months post return – various reasons). The achillies is actually not that big a deal for hockey players and a full recovery and performance is generally the case. Yes, he’s getting up there in age and, absolutely, if a trade for value is offered, go for it but I’m not willing to retain a material amount and a buyout makes zero sense – don’t buy out good hockey players.

    Oh, Russell needs to be the #1 disposition target this off-season but that should not require retaining half and a buyout should not be an option.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Well everyone wants a top defenseman but nobody’s willing to pay for one.

    not one that is going to cost a big cap hit commitment for his 31-38 years.

  121. Jaxon says:

    I know it’s not fair to the rest of the Bruins, but I hate Marchand and I want him to lose. I like gritty pests, but I don’t like jackasses. It made me feel warm and fuzzy to see him at fault on the 2nd goal. Plus the Blues are 90% Canadian and the Bruins are 10% Canadian, not to mention that I liked Maroon and Perron as Oilers and they’ve never won a Cup. Go Blues!

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: That is an awful lot for one year of Spurgeon.

    Matt Benning and a high 2nd round draft pick (an expansion protected asset) for one year of Spurgeon.

    #8 and Manning for #12…is arguably equivalent.

    Doesn’t the team trading up add, not the team moving down? Taking Manning isn’t enough Imo, high firsts are extremely valuable.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Saving $1.2M (apx) on the cap (Manning’s hit after buried) is not enough to move down four spots.

  124. Reja says:

    Screw eriksson and the sweetener st. Loo wins and the stock value for Maroon’s Wilson’s and Lucic’s has gone up 25 percent overnight put that in your fancy pipe and smoke it.

  125. Nit64 says:

    Lowetide: Maybe that’s why she hasn’t returned my calls.

    And Doris.

  126. Woogie63 says:

    Anyone know what TSN is broadcasting tonight…

  127. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Munny: I think you nailed it.The signing of Woodcroft is a clear sign that “Stability” is more than a mere soundbite..

    – His 3 year contract also makes him “head coach in waiting”: same length as Tippett’s….Smart

    * it has been an odd treatment of our AHL coaches: save Nelson who got disrepected, the AHL coach has always been just some guy, but never part of a bigger organizational picture.

  128. slopitch says:

    Reja:
    Screw eriksson and the sweetener st. Loo wins and the stock value for Maroon’sWilson’s and Lucic’s has gone up 25 percent overnightputthat in your fancy pipe and smoke it.

    Done!

  129. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: Bah! I forgot! Stupid stupid stupid! Thursday, June 27 between 10-11 am I’ll have another round table with the rowdies Woodguy, Bruce and Tyler Hupka.

    Well, your guests might not be excited, but I am! Thanks for letting me know!

    It’s Bruce’s fault you forgot. Whenever he gets going on old-timey hockey I lose track of everything I’m doing and am transported to whatever time and place he’s talking about.

    And that’s with the online time delay and however far it is from me to studio. I can only imagine that the effects are that much more potent in person. Honestly, I’m surprised when you an your producer can remember to go to commercials on time, because as a listener, I’m expecting the stories to keep going for the rest of the program..

  130. Gerta Rauss says:

    filthy save by Binnington with 11 min to go

  131. Gerta Rauss says:

    Schenn scores 3-0 with 8 min to go..the fat lady is warming up

    good for St Loo and the fans, I’m happy for them

  132. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Schenn scores 3-0 with 8 min to go..the fat lady is warming up

    good for St Loo and the fans, I’m happy for them

    Na na na na

    Na na na na

  133. LMHF#1 says:

    I sincerely hope those of you who argued against the Oilers raiding the Blues in December/January when that was possible have your crow brined and appropriately cooked…

    Could have changed everything.

  134. Bag of Pucks says:

    Perron with a beauty assist.

    MacT picked Eakins over him. lol

    That’s how you punch a ticket to Russia.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    Screw eriksson and the sweetener st. Loo wins and the stock value for Maroon’sWilson’s and Lucic’s has gone up 25 percent overnightputthat in your fancy pipe and smoke it.

    I can’t agree that this will have any effect on Lucic’s value.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – His 3 year contract also makes him “head coach in waiting”: same length as Tippett’s….Smart

    * it has been an odd treatment of our AHL coaches: save Nelson who got disrepected, the AHL coach has always been just some guy, but never part of a bigger organizational picture.

    As an aside, Nelson no longer being considered for the Ducks head coaching job.

    As has always been the case, its all but a certainty that is going to Dallas Eakins.

    Interesting that Eakins is going to win over Nelson considering the thoughts the Oiler fan base and this community have on those two coaches.

    Perhaps its the posters than make up this community that have “smartest man in the room” syndrome?

  137. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Perron with a beauty assist.

    MacT picked Eakins over him. lol

    That’s how you punch a ticket to Russia.

    Is that Perron pronounced ‘Krueger’?

  138. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull: Is that Perron pronounced ‘Krueger’?

    Good one!

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Perron with a beauty assist.

    MacT picked Eakins over him. lol

    That’s how you punch a ticket to Russia.

    Eakins, who is about to be named head coach of ANA over Todd Nelson – seems Eakins has a bit more respect in the hockey community than he does in this community.

    As an aside, if Chiarelli didn’t trade away the return for Perron, MacT would be lauded for the Perron trade bringing in Barzal.

    Getting that first round pick back for a player that had given up on his teamates was a great job by MacT.

  140. flyfish1168 says:

    The best part of St. Loius winning the Stanley Cup is that it is in Boston.

    Happy for Paddy and David

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar

    Perhaps its the posters than make up this community that have “smartest man in the room” syndrome?

    You insult the entirety of the community while seemingly removing yourself from criticism.

    You really are a tool.

  142. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: Eakins, who is about to be named head coach of ANA over Todd Nelson – seems Eakins has a bit more respect in the hockey community than he does in this community.

    As an aside, if Chiarelli didn’t trade away the return for Perron, MacT would be lauded for the Perron trade bringing in Barzal.

    Getting that first round pick back for a player that had given up on his teamates was a great job by MacT.

    Doesn’t surprise me in the least you’re an Eakins fan.

    Chop wood and carry water!

  143. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – I was one of the few that called out Dallas the day he was hired: its wasn’t a popular position at the time, but I knew enough hockey people who all said the same thing

    – That said, Dallas totally deserves the opportunity if he does become head coach: failed attempt as a head coach, then a lot of years with an organization as AHL coach, where he’s done good stuff. Trust he has learned a lot, and that it works out for him.

    – If I was a GM, I’d want my AHL coach ready to take over as head-coach: continuity, familiar with a lot of the players, organizational hierarchy.

    * I’m happy for St-Louis: but sad that Boston couldn’t hold 3 championships at once:that would have been something

    – Whose to say Starret isnt’ Bennington next year?

  144. Gerta Rauss says:

    The FCC is going to be upset in the morning

    *edit-NBC apologized and turned off the ice level microphone LoL

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    The FCC is going to be upset in the morning

    No doubt. So happy for them. They battled like true warriors.

  146. Pouzar says:

    Perron in his 3rd tour of duty with Blues wins the cup. Awesome.

  147. Pouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: The FCC is going to be upset in the morning

    F^ck em.

  148. Pouzar says:

    Sumit Tripathi

    @Sumit_Tripathi_
    Follow Follow @Sumit_Tripathi_
    More
    So ladies and gentlemen I believe Peter Chiarelli has won the Stanley Cup as a memeber of Blues

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am a member of this community.

    I don’t recall stating that I’m an Eakins fan – far from it.

  150. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT’s white whales are the 3 for 1 trade and the balance photo and the Blues got both with the O’Reilly trade.

    Too bad Binnington won’t win the Calder, but the Cup is better!

  151. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am a member of this community.

    I don’t recall stating that I’m an Eakins fan – far from it.

    Whatever. This is too special a night to debate your BS.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    The FCC is going to be upset in the morning

    *edit-NBC apologized and turned off the ice level microphone LoL

    SN, on the other hand, did not!

  153. Bag of Pucks says:

    Shoutout to the Edmonton/Oil connections!

    Bouwmeester, Parayko, Berube, Big Rig, with honourable mention to Perron.

  154. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar:
    Sumit Tripathi

    @Sumit_Tripathi_
    Follow Follow @Sumit_Tripathi_
    More
    So ladies and gentlemen I believe Peter Chiarelli has won the Stanley Cup as a memeber of Blues

    So you’re saying he’s got market value again? 😳

  155. Jethro Tull says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    The FCC is going to be upset in the morning

    *edit-NBC apologized and turned off the ice level microphone LoL

    Words you can’t say winning the Stanley Cup.

  156. Gerta Rauss says:

    Jethro Tull: Words you can’t say winning the Stanley Cup.

    Fuckin’ eh passes muster with the CBC/Sportsnet apparently

  157. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: So you’re saying he’s got market value again?

    I guess “the plan” worked.

  158. Glovjuice says:

    Incessantly passive aggressive people are poison to a community.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hopefully Dave Mason is here for just as long as Woodcroft, or even longer.

  160. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar: I guess “the plan” worked.

    Pretty brutal year for him I’m sure. Nice that the game gave him some joy.

  161. Sunnyboy says:

    Well, the cup run is over and congrats to the Blues, a run from
    New Year’s to be savored and enjoyed.
    The next 3 weeks will be interesting as well as teams and players
    seek to find partners before “closing” time.

  162. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glovjuice:
    Incessantly passive aggressive people are poison to a community.

    This is why I’m happy Brad Marchand did not hoist the Cup tonight!

  163. Yegfoundation says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I’m happy to have OP as part of our community and I enjoy all of his posts and find his informative and insight excellent. I also enjoy reading about his travels, his work and his early morning workouts.

    On the other hand, I skip past 80% of your posts due to your poor behaviour.

    If something is making you unhappy in your personal life, please don’t take it out on the good people in this community.

  164. Bag of Pucks says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Do you find it effective to insult someone and then give them advice?

    FWIW I’ve repeatedly asked OP not to reply to my posts and he refuses so as far as I’m concerned, he deserves whatever he get when he insists on doing so.

  165. Ben says:

    I think you’re ALL a bunch of jerks.

    Blues are such a cool story…worst to champs in a few months. I’d read a few thousand words about the spiritual and statistical aspects of the turnaround.

  166. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hopefully Dave Mason is here for just as long as Woodcroft, or even longer.

    Love Dave Mason. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8_FOQ7-P30

  167. slopitch says:

    When you consider the RoR acquisition (his numbers werent good) and the players who were “available” (Tarasenko, Parayko, Schenn and others were rumored to be available) you gotta hand it to Doug Armstrong to stick to your guns and not panic.

    Jaden Schwartz may be the most underrated player in the game.

    Good on Maroon (you beauty), Perron and Boumeister.

  168. Jethro Tull says:

    Gerta Rauss: Fuckin’ eh passes muster with the CBC/Sportsnet apparently

    Should have asked him the water bottle question.

  169. SVR says:

    OriginalPouzar: As an aside, Nelson no longer being considered for the Ducks head coaching job.

    As has always been the case, its all but a certainty that is going to Dallas Eakins.

    Interesting that Eakins is going to win over Nelson considering the thoughts the Oiler fan base and this community have on those two coaches.

    Perhaps its the posters than make up this community that have “smartest man in the room” syndrome?

    Seriously? From the guy who’s every post is a statement straight from the smartest playbook

  170. Yegfoundation says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I provided you my opinion on your behaviour as an opportunity for self reflection. I genuinely hope you find my feedback helpful.

  171. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Eakins, who is about to be named head coach of ANA over Todd Nelson – seems Eakins has a bit more respect in the hockey community than he does in this community.

    As an aside, if Chiarelli didn’t trade away the return for Perron, MacT would be lauded for the Perron trade bringing in Barzal.

    Getting that first round pick back for a player that had given up on his teamates was a great job by MacT.

    Eakins was a bad coach here. He’s even admitted himself. I suspect his approach with his new gig will be much much different.

  172. Reja says:

    Glovjuice:
    Muswell Hillbillies- what a classic.

    Oh, and, whoever was the person who turned me on to Still Corners; thanks. Killer stuff and several songs on my summer mixes. Bam. Time for an Old Milwaukee light.

    Glovjuice:
    Muswell Hillbillies- what a classic.

    Oh, and, whoever was the person who turned me on to Still Corners; thanks. Killer stuff and several songs on my summer mixes. Bam. Time for an Old Milwaukee light.

    The Trip. Beautiful relaxing song.

  173. Bag of Pucks says:

    Yegfoundation:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I provided you my opinion on your behaviour as an opportunity for self reflection. I genuinely hope you find my feedback helpful.

    I think you might be placing a little too much emphasis on anonymous posts on the internet. To be fair, I probably could be more transparent on my personal exercise and diet regimen if it’s content that you find compelling?

    I have a pretty full and happy life with good family, friends and colleagues in the real world.

    But thanks for your concern. I’ll self reflect now or sleep. Whatever comes first.

  174. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t agree that this will have any effect on Lucic’s value.

    It’s a copycat league Caps win Blues win the Jenny Hockey anybody thinks of touching me will have to wait another year.

  175. Glovjuice says:

    Reja:
    The Trip. Beautiful relaxing song.

    Ah, the mighty REJA was the bearer of such a good recommendation. The Trip is a Trip.

    PS – change the J to G and your are a mid-level high end record player company.

  176. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: Eakins was a bad coach here. He’s even admitted himself. I suspect his approach with his new gig will be much much different.

    Chop wood carry bullshit was put in a tough position but you can’t throw and embarrass your leader your real captain. Eakins must be able to suck a golf ball though a garden hose. David Perron suck on it Eakins.

  177. godot10 says:

    Eakins befriended the owner in Anaheim. Murray is just giving the owner what he wants. A confidence man always finds the weak link to sell a bill of goods to. Murray’s choice is a job protection choice.

    From the Oilers perspective, it is good the dementor got the Anaheim job, rather than someone actually good, like Nelson.

  178. Sunnyboy says:

    I’m looking for Old Dutch and the Oilers to slow play this summer. This will not be a playoff year for the upcoming team. I hope to see some modest improvement on the wings and less blender effects with the forward lines, stability i think will help as the new coaches improve team defense. The Dmen are OK for a team of their ranking, frankly if Larson”s +/- does not rebound after 20-30 games, I would deal him for a winger, the cliff, health, between the ears, something amiss here.
    The clamor over KR is so ridiculous, coaches trust him but some tall foreheads here think ? he should be gone, I guess we’ll see what real hockey people think again. I hope against hope that Caleb Jones does not get called up to play RD. Playing him there in the AHL is like playing him in NHL training camp, it hardly counts. Guys kill it in the A and struggle in the NHL. It won’t be long before the hounds are howling, they will feast on his failures, and the crucifiction walk out of town will commence. Think Shultz, Petry all the way back to Poti, all better elsewhere than here? Really?
    Lucic should be the #1 issue dealt with, this will go bad in the room when respect for him wanes.

  179. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: Ah, the mighty REJA was the bearer of such a good recommendation.The Trip is a Trip.

    PS – change the J to G and your are a mid-level high end record player company.

    Don’t ever lose being unique it would be a shame.

  180. Glovjuice says:

    Sunnyboy:
    I’m looking for Old Dutch and the Oilers to slow play this summer. This will not be a playoff year for the upcoming team. I hope to see some modest improvement on the wings and less blender effects with the forward lines, stability i think will help as the new coaches improve team defense. The Dmen are OK for a team of their ranking, frankly if Larson”s +/- does not rebound after 20-30 games, I would deal him for a winger, the cliff, health, between the ears, something amiss here.
    The clamor over KR is so ridiculous, coaches trust him but some tall foreheads here think ? he should be gone, I guess we’ll see what real hockey people think again. I hope against hope that Caleb Jones does not get called up to play RD. Playing him there in the AHLis likeplaying him in NHL training camp, it hardly counts. Guys kill it in the A and struggle in the NHL.It won’t be long before the hounds are howling, they will feast on his failures, and the crucifiction walk out of town will commence. Think Shultz, Petry all the way back to Poti, all better elsewhere than here? Really?
    Lucic should be the #1 issue dealt with, this will go bad in the room when respect for him wanes.

    This is awesome. Luv this kind of wacko but real post. Keep em coming.

  181. Glovjuice says:

    Reja: Don’t ever lose being unique it would be a shame.

    Cheers. No worries there. That’s for sure.

  182. GMB3 says:

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    There’s obviously a good case that he’s at least an average and could be an above average puck mover and offensive D.

    But it’s the other way without the puck where things are egregious. Maybe moments are amplified, but there’s a lot of moments of blown coverage, misplays on odd man breaks, and just getting plain beat. He’s a lot like Gryba this way, he can be physical on the wall, but poor in coverage, especially poor when there’s little support.

    All while being sheltered on the third pair with lesser minutes and comp, as opposed to Nurse and Russell who both stepped up and did pretty well in substantially more minutes and tougher comp due to injury.

    He’s 25, he’s pretty much what he is. If we were in rebuilding mode, I’d have a lot more patience for this player, plus he’s on his first RFA deal, and his salary will only go up for an incomplete player.

    Percentages aren’t difficult dude

  183. Reja says:

    Bennington should have been the MVP without him going on a 5 month heater probably half the team is traded or in wasteland. Worst to first old time hockey gotta love it.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    I miss hockey…..

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: It’s a copycat league Caps win Blues win the Jenny Hockey anybody thinks of touching mewill have to wait another year.

    I didn’t see any players on the Blues that weren’t able to take/make a pass with any sort of speed efficiency, weren’t able to keep up with the play, etc.

    There is nothing in Lucic’s game that is a copy of any player on the Blues.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sunnyboy:
    I’m looking for Old Dutch and the Oilers to slow play this summer. This will not be a playoff year for the upcoming team. I hope to see some modest improvement on the wings and less blender effects with the forward lines, stability i think will help as the new coaches improve team defense. The Dmen are OK for a team of their ranking, frankly if Larson”s +/- does not rebound after 20-30 games, I would deal him for a winger, the cliff, health, between the ears, something amiss here.
    The clamor over KR is so ridiculous, coaches trust him but some tall foreheads here think ? he should be gone, I guess we’ll see what real hockey people think again. I hope against hope that Caleb Jones does not get called up to play RD. Playing him there in the AHLis likeplaying him in NHL training camp, it hardly counts. Guys kill it in the A and struggle in the NHL.It won’t be long before the hounds are howling, they will feast on his failures, and the crucifiction walk out of town will commence. Think Shultz, Petry all the way back to Poti, all better elsewhere than here? Really?
    Lucic should be the #1 issue dealt with, this will go bad in the room when respect for him wanes.

    Why do i keep hearing these concerns about Larsson’s health?

    He doesn’t have back issues – he missed like 10 games with a wonky back over a season ago – that’s it.

    Other than that, he’s missed 3 games with injury over 4 years (and a bunch more with bereavement).

    He’s been extremely durable.

    Why is there an age/cliff issue with Larsson – he’s 26 – he’s barely even in his prime for his type of game.

    Larsson had a really tough year last year. Who knows why. Maybe it was function of his partner being playing injured. Maybe it was function of his goalies being awful. Who knows. At the same time, he was absolutely excellent the year before, even with a tough year personally. He was a plus 10 playing top minutes (with a developing Nurse for a few months) and a big negative team – excellent.

  187. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why do i keep hearing these concerns about Larsson’s health?

    He doesn’t have back issues – he missed like 10 games with a wonky back over a season ago – that’s it.

    Other than that, he’s missed 3 games with injury over 4 years (and a bunch more with bereavement).

    He’s been extremely durable.

    Why is there an age/cliff issue with Larsson – he’s 26 – he’s barely even in his prime for his type of game.

    Larsson had a really tough year last year.Who knows why.Maybe it was function of his partner being playing injured.Maybe it was function of his goalies being awful.Who knows.At the same time, he was absolutely excellent the year before, even with a tough year personally.He was a plus 10 playing top minutes (with a developing Nurse for a few months) and a big negative team – excellent.

    He had a groin issue I believe this season, you could see he was laboring at times. I’d bet on Larsson returning to previous levels in 2019-20.

  188. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

    https://theathletic.com/1022185/2019/06/13/lowetide-oilers-gm-ken-holland-is-shopping-for-20-goal-scorers-on-a-budget-what-will-he-find/

  189. Tapdog says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Yegfoundation,

    Do you find it effective to insult someone and then give them advice?

    FWIW I’ve repeatedly asked OP not to reply to my posts and he refuses so as far as I’m concerned, he deserves whatever he get when he insists on doing so.

    BOP, this is a public forum… you can ask OP to ignore your posts all you want. If he wants to respond, he can respond. You have the same options on his posts.

    Speaking for me, I really enjoy what you both have to say when you’re talking hockey. You both have great points of view and can back up your positions well. I may post rarely but I read this site daily and every comment. But what makes this place painful is when you and OP get into your pissing matches and try to out alpha male the other!!

    So you asked him not to respond to your posts, if he does (which you have no control over) don’t respond to it. That you have control over!

  190. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    I’m convinced that this is a schtick.

    This just about made my day yesterday, as I’ve had the same conversation a time or two.

  191. jp says:

    Jaxon: Me too. I recall your comment explaining this same issue last week to him. Haha. It has to be.

    At the same time, Russ’s comment is not completely baseless. A player can win the goal share while still being a defensive liability. I just don’t believe this is the case with Benning.

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    There’s obviously a good case that he’s at least an average and could be an above average puck mover and offensive D.

    But it’s the other way without the puck where things are egregious. Maybe moments are amplified, but there’s a lot of moments of blown coverage, misplays on odd man breaks, and just getting plain beat. He’s a lot like Gryba this way, he can be physical on the wall, but poor in coverage, especially poor when there’s little support.

    All while being sheltered on the third pair with lesser minutes and comp, as opposed to Nurse and Russell who both stepped up and did pretty well in substantially more minutes and tougher comp due to injury.

    He’s 25, he’s pretty much what he is. If we were in rebuilding mode, I’d have a lot more patience for this player, plus he’s on his first RFA deal, and his salary will only go up for an incomplete player.

    I had a similar look at Benning’s 2nd pairing minutes as Armchair (last 2 seasons instead of 3, and using a different methodology) and came up with very similar results: Benning has been winning the minutes he’s played as a 2nd pair defender (in goal share, but also all other potentially relevant metrics).

    Following up, here are his GF and GA/60 numbers in the same minutes compared to other Oilers D.

    /Benning 3.15GF 2.45GA (932 minute 2nd pairing sample)
    Klefbom 1.97GF 2.72GA
    Larsson 2.04GF 2.74GA
    Nurse 2.55GF 2.49GA
    Russell 2.25GF 2.49GA/

    So Benning has actually been the best Oilers defender at (not) allowing goal against (in top 4 minutes) over the past 2 seasons.

    You wanted also to see on ice save %. Turns out Benning was a little lucky relative to his teammates, but not by a lot (and not enough to explain his good GA/60 and GF% numbers).

    /Benning 92.16%
    Nurse 92.01%
    Russell 91.99%
    Larsson 91.34%
    Klefbom 91.26%/

    To add to that here are Benning’s shots against, scoring chances against and HD scoring chances against for more context.

    Shots against/60:
    Benning 31.2
    Russell 31.0
    Klefbom 31.1
    Nurse 31.2
    Larsson 31.6

    Scoring chances against/60:
    Benning 27.4
    Larsson 27.2
    Klefbom 27.9
    Nurse 28.1
    Russell 28.2

    HD scoring chances/60:
    Benning 10.9
    Klefbom 11.5
    Russell 11.6
    Larsson 11.7
    Nurse 12.1

    Again, all of this is Benning in top 4 minutes only, compared to the Oilers actual top 4 D. I can’t find anything in the “for” numbers, the “against” numbers or the “%” numbers that reflects Benning being poor defensively or a liability. Maybe it’s not there. I dunno.

  192. russ99 says:

    ArmchairGM: All the percentage numbers take into account both For and Against. I’ll use goals to demonstrate:

    GF: 64
    GA: 51

    GF%: 55.65

    The formula looks like this: =GF/(GF+GA)

    So GF% is his goal share, how many goals scored for Edmonton as a percentage of total goals scored while Benning was on the ice. At 50%, your opponent is getting just as many events (shots, goals, corsi’s, etc) as you are, i.e. its a stalemate. Anything above 50% is good, anything below is bad.

    Does that make sense? I’m not very good at explaining things, you’re probably more confused than ever!

    So is plus-minus, and that’s looked down upon.

    I fully understand this, my issue is when a player is deemed good if his offensive contribution outweighs his defensive contribution, which akin to OPS in baseball. This rewards players who do certain things well, and punishes others who also contribute but don’t do things that count in that specific metric.

    For forwards, I’m much more on board with this, but not for defensemen, who’s core responsibility is to keep the opposition from getting easy chances just as much as it is to get the puck and send it the other way. Like the Blues last night.

    The shot numbers have painted a picture for many that unless a player conforms to specific skills that builds shots for numbers, we can overlook a heck of a lot when we don’t have the puck.

    This is also lazy analytics, where minutes that a player is on the ice when we don’t have the puck is overlooked, or minimized. There are advanced stats that measure this, but they’re primitive and hard to locate. To LT’s credit, he’s using scoring chances and goals allowed and minutes vs. elite frequently.

    People rip on Ricki’s posts, but there is at least a good attempt to quantify something that is hard to quantify, yet has value.

    I’m not willing to overlook Benning’s glaring defensive deficiencies when people are pushing him into a 2RD role with higher minutes and comp that he hasn’t been able to handle in the past and there are reasons why it’s unlikely he can handle it it in the future despite what the CF% and XG% says.

  193. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I didn’t see any players on the Blues that weren’t able to take/make a pass with any sort of speed efficiency, weren’t able to keep up with the play, etc.

    There is nothing in Lucic’s game that is a copy of any player on the Blues.

    I believe Lucic has more value to Van than a burnt- out 34 year-old does to Edmonton and with the Caps and Blues Winning I would bet Dollars for doughnuts so do most of the GM’s in the league.

  194. jp says:

    russ99:
    I’m not willing to overlook Benning’s glaring defensive deficiencies when people are pushing him into a 2RD role with higher minutes and comp that he hasn’t been able to handle in the past and there are reasons why it’s unlikely he can handle it it in the future despite what the CF% and XG% says.

    1) Why don’t Benning’s glaring defensive deficiencies show up in any of his numbers/results? Traditional, fancy or otherwise.

    2) I don’t know if anyone is pushing him into the 2RD role. At most some of us are arguing that he can maybe/probably handle them as well as some of the other Oilers defenders can.

    The flip side is that some other folks view Benning as completely expendable and already redundant with the Bakersfield D, despite considerable evidence that he’s actually a good NHL player.

    3) I can’t comprehend why you keep talking about CF% and xGF% with Benning. You’ve seen many times that real, tangible goals for and goals against show Benning in a very good light. In his top 4 minutes he has the best GA/60 (and scoring chance/HD scoring chance against/60) among all Oilers D. The goals for and goals against actually like Benning more than the corsi’s.

    Maybe this is all a schtick.

    Edit: I guess you’re not reading the posts. How can you say “comp he hasn’t been able to handle” when replying to a post showing that he’s not only handled those minutes, but performed better than any Oilers defender?

  195. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99: So is plus-minus, and that’s looked down upon.

    Google “why +/- is a flawed stat” and you’ll see that 5v5 goal differential is a very different animal.

    I’m not going to respond to the rest of your post as you clearly have made no effort to read and comprehend anything I’ve written up to this point.

  196. Jaxon says:

    Jaxon:
    Cozens and Beecher would be amazing.

    2020/21(/22?)
    Cozens – Mcdavid – Puljujarvi
    Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
    Benson – Beecher – Maksimov
    Khaira – McLeod – Kassian
    Marody/Safin

    Nurse – Bouchard
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Samorukov/Jones/Lagesson – Bear/Benning/Persson/

    That’s a big, fast lineup. Playoff hockey. 13 plus size players and not many with a lack of speed. Benson and Marody may be the slowest players on that roster.

    Forwards touted for their 2-way play: Cozens, Nuge, Benson, Beecher.
    Good bets as PK options: Beecher, McLeod, Khaira, Kassian.

    Still betting on Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, though. Right now, they are questions marks that need answers. Hopefully, they turn a corner this season.

    In the meantime, who do they supplement the roster with?
    Using Matt Cane’s model with an eye for getting faster, can the Oilers acquire any of the UFAs?

    Karlsson – 8 @ $9.90M
    Duchene – 6 @ $6.92M
    Dzingel – 4 @ $4.33M
    B Tanev – 4 @ $2.79M
    Hagelin – 3 @ $2.47M
    Paajarvi – 3 @ $1.95M

    They probably only have room for players on the bottom half of this list unless they can dump a lot of cap.

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