What are your expectations for this year’s Oilers draft? If the team drafted another Nuge plus a Klefbom, would that be enough? If you had a choice between drafting another Leon Draisaitl or Andrew Cogliano/Jeff Petry, which one would you choose?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Father’s Day Offer!
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
- New Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
- Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
- Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
- Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
- Lowetide: Hard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
- Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
Draft Philosophy
I think the best plan of action is to draft skill with every pick. Seriously. If there was a guy who could score goals but had a piano tied to his ass available in the seventh round, take him. Maybe you can untie the piano. Below are the forwards who could land inside this year’s top 20. They won’t go in the order below, but how long should a team wait before taking Arthur Kaliyev? Bobby Brink?
Note: I think the USHL number being used currently doesn’t deflate the boxcars enough, that’s reflected in the difference between the numbers above and my final ranking.
I think a smart team just keeps on keeping on with skill. We’re looking at forwards today, but same goes for defensemen. Here’s the next wave of prospects this season and I think a wise team exhausts the first list and then dives into this one.
Draft them all. Keep going! This is not an exact science. Michael Dal Colle’s scoring numbers towered over Dylan Larkin. Shiza happens. This is the remainder of the forward group inside my top 40 overall and doesn’t include Jamieson Rees or Albin Grewe. If I’m the Oilers, I draft all forwards if good options are available.
I read “Brett Connolly, Loui Eriksson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Brian Elliott.” It’s a pleasing scenario, although the Flyers trade with the Capitals today buggers up the Connolly signing.
The Niskanen-Gudas deal
Although I do like Ken Holland’s early moves, this is the kind of deal that could derail summer. Niskanen had a poor season after several excellent campaigns, so in a way is similar to Adam Larsson at this time. However, Niskanen turns 33 in December, his most recent struggles could well be the new normal. Philly paid in full and then some to find out. Larsson? He turns 27 in November and is on a wonderful contract. His chances of having a strong rebound, followed by successful seasons, is far better than Niskanen’s. Flyers made a poor trade.
DRAFT TRADE TALK
Back in the old hippie days, the Oilers were always good for at least one “we tried” story. Here’s Guy Flaming post-draft 2009:
As the first round continued and defenceman John Moore continued to be available, Edmonton began kicking tires to see what it would take to move up into an area where they might be able to take him. Moore is a player that Oilers Assistant GM Rick Olczyk knew well from his days spent in the Chicago area where he actually coached the defenceman at a younger age. It’s my sense that Moore was very likely 10th on Edmonton’s list, just behind Glennie, so if they could have found a way to get back into the first round, they would have. As it turned out, the asking price was a later pick in round 1 and they simply didn’t have one so they watched with envy as former Oiler Scott Howson came away with another player Edmonton valued.
Ken Holland is the new general manager but he’s also a veteran and part of his personality is to drop pieces as teases (as he did last night with the season ticket holders). I expect we’ll see a story like this, possibly from Matty, after the draft next week.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We celebrate an incredible week in sports today at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will give us a live action update from Toronto, as the Raptors bring the trophy home. Joseph Casciaro from The Score will stop by to talk about how the Raptors won, and what’s next. Matt Iwaynk will pop by at 11:05 to talk about the Eskimos game against Montreal tonight, and Simon Boisvert has a visit at 11:25 and we’ll discuss the draft and best available for Edmonton. 10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. Friday!!!
The funny thing is your right.
Lucic would play on the perimeter too if he could get there.
Dude, do you know what you linked to?
Passing and Zone entry/exit rates.
I’d say Bona Fide top 6 winger.
Agreed that the QoC will impair some these results, but he’d also be playing with a much better offensive C than Eller.
Take some, give some.
PP time is also a big deal as he doesn’t get it in WSH Because Ovi.
Lagesson was actually even more interesting. He never played pro in Sweden before drafted. He was drafted out of the USHL, then played two years of college before going to play in The SHL for a year. Great development on him.
This proposal reminds me of this old piece:
https://www.coppernblue.com/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round
New for The Athletic: Falling talent and other fun facts that could benefit the Oilers in the NHL Draft
https://theathletic.com/1026923/2019/06/15/falling-talent-and-other-fun-facts-that-could-benefit-the-oilers-in-the-2019-nhl-draft/
Last 3 seasons combined, minimum 1000 5v5 minutes played:
5v5 Goals
Connolly 45 – tied 57th among NHL forwards
Lucic 21 – tied 248th among NHL forwards
5v5 SH%
Connolly 17.8% – 3rd among NHL forwards
Lucic 6.8% – 350th among NHL forwards
Its like they’re twins!!!
Also,
I find this situation where Leadfarmer is using Actual Fancy Stats and me using Goals to argue about a player quite hilarious.
Leadfarmer, I implore you to put down your spreadsheets and watch the games sir.
Yes. I think so too. If you do it, your scouts better be pretty darn sure they know something everyone else doesn’t to make that move with it. They better really like that player.
No players ever move up the depth chart?
No player plays on a deep team?
Interesting theory.
Goals aren’t fancy.
I also showed where he ranked on raw goal totals explicitly to avoid the extrapolation argument.
No one is saying Trot is stupid.
He was playing behind Wilson and Oshie.
You’re usually good at arguing the argument and not creating strawmen.
I gave 3 years of results and showed that he wasn’t running hot SH% wise.
Greetings from Copenhagen.
It is a crapshoot at that point, IMHO. We traded up to move up a few spots to get Skinner and Rodrigue the last couple years. Not sure if they will turn out to be worth it – nor am I sure we wouldn’t have still got them or an equivalent player if we didn’t just sit patiently to see who was available at our original draft position.
He didn’t score a goal in the final 34 games of the season or the playoffs. Hard pass IMO.
I like Donskoi and think he would be a quality add.
I bet he takes less money to stay in SJ though,
Half of all UFA’s end up re-signing with their own teams don’t they?
We need wingers for Leon Nuge and Mcdavid before they retire you only get lucky Dumpster diving once in a Chiasson moon.
I don’t know if he has come up yet, but might I suggest Donskoi as a primary target? His relative numbers are good-to-great across the board, he’s already used to playing in the West and his hailing from the Northern half of Finland might make it more likely he’d sign than most UFAs. Feel like he’d be a good compliment to Nuge if they can add another top-6 winger (Zucker, Miller, etc) via trade.
Draisaitl- McDavid- ____
Miller- Nuge- Donskoi
Give up the 6th now for rights on Connolly. If u end up having to outbid the market on an average forward u end up with another regrettable contract. Hes another Benoit Pouliot in terms of people thinking hes a late bloomer imo
That’s not a fair comparison a 50 point Lucic compared to a 50 point perimeter Nancy let’s use loui Ericsson for example isn’t in the same ballpark for the end result in what they contribute to the team.
Don’t care how many 50 point seasons Lucic has had.
Connelly is a better player right now than Lucic was in his 1st game as an Oiler. That’s the comparison that matters.
That’s the spirit think late bloomer via Pisani anyone that spends 4 years of junior in Prince George is a tough so and so. I dare any poster to spend a month in luxurious Prince George come January and get back to me.
I would be all in with Holland taking Podkolzin at #8. Kid consistently dominated his peer group. A very unique talent.
Dach or Cozens would also be fine picks. At least one of those three should be there at #8.
No to any defenseman not named Byram with that pick.
No to anyone under 5’9″ with that pick.
Thanks WG.
So are you saying he’s a bonafide 1st line RW?
I’m assuming those rates would drop with an increase in QoC, but any indication he has the potential to sustain if given the opportunity?
I think this is a very good question. Bad teams seem to perpetuate themselves because they acquire decent players and these guys lose their game going from a good team to a bad team. How do you break the cycle of ineptitude? A very big challenge to overcome.
who,
It’s true. It’s not a fair comparison
Lucic has had multiple 50 point seasons by the time he was 28
Paying top dollar for ok forwards is folly
Didn’t work for better forwards like Okposo Erickson Lucic Ladd
Don’t expect to work for Connolly
Another scenario. If a player you like such as John Beecher is still there at #34, do you go the opposite direction and trade your #38 and #85 to move up to #34? Or, as everything is pretty much a crapshoot at that point, do you just draft what you can when your pick comes up and keep your picks?
Interesting. I think I like that better. As I said, my idea of just draft picks I probably wouldn’t do as, just as in any trade, ‘best player wins’ and it would be hard to beat a #8 who turns out like a Cozens, Kaliyev, Caufield, Broberg, Dach, Newhook, etc might. I think if I was drafting somewhere after #22-ish, I’d definitely consider trading down for more arrows in the quiver. Blue Bullets’ draft value chart is fun to play with for that purpose.
You may not want to sign Connelly to a 5×5 contract, but comparing him to Lucic is way over the top.
Connelly can actually skate. And give and take a pass. And put the puck in the net once in a while.
He is the complete opposite of Lucic.
Good point, if they draft Beecher, for instance, he is committed to University of Michigan next year if he doesn’t make an NHL team (likely).
You can’t make the argument that it’s 8x Chaisson’s salary unless he signs for league minimum again & scores 20+ goals next season.
“Paying a non elite guy for what you hope he can do”
That’s a fair argument & I agree
I would personally like to see a few more Berglund’s & Lagesson’sons drafted & sent back to Sweden/Finland.
I hope that after what has transpired with Puljujarvi, Holland will not be afraid to draft another Finnish or Swedish forward in the first round and send the player back home for seasoning.
It seems to do the player a world of good,
Who knew?
– Basically Chiasson 2.0 pro-rated over 82 games for 8x salary?
– Pass
– between our big 3 and whoever plays with McD you’ve got two thirds of an elite top-6
– your going to regret paying a non elite guy for what you hope he can do but hasn’t done.
Wow, you’re really blowing a few extra picks out of proportion. As it stands the Oilers only have 6 picks in 7 rounds, so after the trade, they’d only have two more picks than a normal year and they aren’t even extra 1st round picks so the likelihood that they’ll need to sign all 4 is pretty low. Strange thing to nitpick about.
As mentioned, I really doubt I’d do it just based on the value of the 8th compared to the other picks, but I thought it was interesting enough to hear other peoples’ opinions about it.
You really think if they hit a homerun with a couple of those picks that they’ll be saying, “But oh no, wait, we have to sign Brad Malone and Patrick Russell. Our AHL team will suck without them!” I think they’ll be fine and be able to prepare for it with two years of track before they have to consider to give them another 3 years. And even if they sign them in the first year, their contracts can slide and not count against the 50 man. I just don’t get it, I guess.
That would give us 9 picks. CAR, DET, LAK, MTL, & NJD all have 10 draft picks this year. They must be horrified at their terrible mistake. FLA, NYR, PHI, VAN, VGK all have 9. I bet you they’re worried, too.
$4.75M
24.75 Goals per year
Ya that would cover the bet
leadfarmer,
– Connolly is similar to Brown in that people conflate their fancies with a perception of what they would do on a different team batting higher up the order
– the reason their numbers look good is because they play on teams that score a lot of goals
– We have the same issue with Benning on D – if he was on a better team he would be a better D with stronger numbers.
– 27 year olds don’t magically become top6 wingers. Well lots of wingers become top6 playing with CMD. But you don’t need to pay up for a Connolly. Doesn’t matter there is no chance he’s coming here.
* LT asks” what are your expectations “. Honestly nothing would surprise me: from an injured CMD to start the season and Sek and others injured resulting in another poor year all the way to everything working and Pool amd another guy surprising resulting in us being a deadly team.
It seems like a no brainer to me, less veteran AHL only guys and more playing time for prospects.
Plus,
It is possible for teams to successfully trade excess draft picks in return for NHL players.
It happens all the time, just not for the Oilers
F.U.
P.C.
I don’t think one year of acquiring 3 extra picks in the 2nd and 3rd round is going to have an effect of clogging up the system or prohibiting the necessary “AHL veteran” signings. Chances are we they may not want to sign one in any event and its not necessarily true that everyone will be required to be signed within 2 years – there could be a college kid (or USHL kid planning on college) or two in there for example.
So you have a ton of signed draft picks but now your AHL team is shit, and you can’t develop them. Plus entry level contracts are 3 years. You entirely clog up your system.
50 contracts is a constraint that means one cannot just use volume drafting as a strategy.
If Milan gets traded he’s going to surprise a few yokels he will revert back to the old Milan for a spell. Betting windows open the day he gets traded 13 goals the grunts win 12 is a push 11 and the mean heartless people win.
Connelly the late bloomer haven’t peaked yet on a 4 year Mcdavid friendly contract he pots 99 goals and more than covers the bet.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard
Put in Brett Connolly last year and for 3 years. He looks a lot like…
Milan Lucic
Who wants one Lucic when you can have two
I totally realize this, which is why I’m not worried about it. Every year we sign a bunch of fringe NHLers or fulltime AHLers to contracts. There would just be less of those if your draft picks have great up arrows. If they don’t have great up arrows you can probably be pretty confident in letting them walk. I’ve never heard of a team thinking they have too many draft picks.
For instance, this year they’re at 42 contracts right now. In the last few weeks the Oilers have signed Logan Day, Joakim Nygard, Joseph Gambardella, Brad Malone, and Patrick Russell. None of them are players I would lose sleep over not signing. Nygard is interesting but not much of a difference maker but let’s say they keep him. He might not even make the team although he’ll be given plenty of opportunity. They signed two goalies in Starrett and Rodrigue. Those I get. If they don’t sign those 4 previous players (keep Nygard) they’d only be at 38 contracts right now. They’d have 12 to go with only Khaira, Puljujarvi, and maybe Rattie left to sign. That would put them at 41 contracts and a current roster of 21. One of the AHL players (Marody, Benson, Yamamoto) will probably be with the team in October to bring it to 22. They need to sign a decent backup to bring it to 23 and 42 contracts. 8 contracts to go with a full roster. It might cause your AHL team to sign more AHL only contracts, but it can be easily done if they need to get more picky about who they give contracts to.
Does anybody else like Duchene as a UFA signing? I think it would be a brilliant move. I’m sure Duchene would be interested in a chance to play alongside one or two of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins. Duchene and McDavid could end up being the fastest pair of linemates in the NHL. Even faster if Cozens eventually joined them. A line every team would absolutely dread defending.
Matt Cane’s table has him estimated at almost $7M for 6 years. I’d be happy with that.
Duchene – McDavid – Cozens (the potential to be the fastest skill line in the NHL)
Draisaitl – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi (solid 2nd line with skill id JP can put it together)
Benson – Marody – Yamamoto (small but skilled enough to win 3rd line. Could surprise)
Khaira – McLeod – Kassian (big, fast trains)
————————
Safin – Beecher – Maksimov (more big, fast trains)
That’s a 2020-2021 playoff team
The other thing with that is that it might help set a reasonable re-signing range for Nugent-Hopkins in a couple of years. Do you think Duchene and Nuge might both go for $6M x 6 in that scenario? Am I way out in left field on this?
How about #8 & Keegan Lowe for #19 & Jean Gabriel Pageau?
Perhaps Ottawa would like Brandon Manning or some of our other dogshit to help them get to the cap floor
Don’t forget the extended term
You realize there is a 50 contract limit. You are trading for draft picks that you will be unable to sign to contracts in two years.
I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t make this trade, but would anyone trade #8 to Ottawa for #19, #32, #44, & #83.? That would give Edmonton #19, #32, #38, #44, #83, #85, #100, #162, #193. 1 pick for 4 picks but I don’t think you can give up a possible franchise player even if your scouts have some confidence in the later picks or some secrets up their sleeve. #8 is a pretty good chance at a star. #19, #32, #44 are okay odds, but most often bottom 6 or not even an NHL player with an outside chance at striking lightning. Thoughts? Are there roster players or prospects to throw in that would make it better? Insane, right?!?
You have obviously never been to Caroline,
Dirty old men make up 93% of the towns population &
the closest thing you’ll find to a “hot woman” is an old biker with long hair before he turns around
Ederle at $ 4 million. You are shopping in non-reality world, OP.
Going back to SE Asia is on my list – going to be a few years though – next couple seem to be booked up.