Ken Holland is a famous general manager, so it’s easy to believe we know everything about him. Do you know his buyout history? Me either.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Father’s Day Offer!
- New Lowetide: Falling talent and other fun facts that could benefit the Oilers in the NHL Draft
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
- New Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
- Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
- Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
- Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
- Lowetide: Hard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
- Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
HOLLAND’S BUYOUT HISTORY
According to CapFriendly, Ken Holland bought out four contracts between 2013 and 2018. The big one (three years) was Stephen Weiss, the rest involved buying out just the final year.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman wrote on the subject of buyouts and this Oilers team for The Athletic this week, and there are no easy outs. The cleanest (in my opinion) is probably Andrej Sekera, but he has value and that’s a fact. Sam Gagner? It saves over $2 million this season and costs a little more than one next year. Window opens today.
NIK EHLERS
Pierre Lebrun set the woods on fire with his Friday article for The Athletic. Pierre discussed the Winnipeg Jets listening to offers on Nikolaj Ehlers and that’s a fine player. Lebrun suggested the return might be a defenceman, and that’s something I wrote about in January (when discussing Ehlers as a target):
Darnell Nurse might have the most appeal for a team like the Jets, who are going to have to make some decisions on the blueline this summer (Trouba, but also UFA Tyler Myers). (Source)
I don’t think the Oilers will trade Nurse, but there’s a new sheriff in town. Is a LH defense of Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Caleb Jones or Kris Russell good enough? Both Ehlers and Nurse are going to play a long time in this league, it’s an intriguing idea. One more thing: Drafting Philip Broberg makes more sense if there’s a Nurse for Ehlers trade this week. Note: I am not recommending a trade of Darnell Nurse. The wise team waits for an internal replacement to be ready before dealing away Nurse.
KEN HOLLAND ON THE WEEK AHEAD
Holland: “We have to get deeper up front. Certainly we need a goaltender and certainly those are the most important things for the next 10 days.” Source
I said it yesterday, and will say it today: Brett Connolly, Loui Eriksson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Brian Elliott. Take your picks, wait for good trade offers and we’re on to September.
OILERS ROSTER JUNE 30, 2015
OILERS ROSTER, JUNE 14, 2019
KEN HOLLAND ON JP
This could all get blown up in the next five minutes, but wildly encouraging verbal from Ken Holland about Jesse Puljujarvi hit the Al Gore yesterday. The most encouraging part? Ken Holland: ” I spent about an hour with him talking.” Listening too, I’ll bet. That goes a long way, at 20 or 50. I’ve said this before (and am not the only one) but Puljujarvi’s potential makes him the kind of talent the Oilers should be looking to acquire, not fade away. I hope he makes it here, just a wonderful story if he does.
Let’s have a look at Varlamov versus Brian Elliott over the last three seasons, using even strength save percentage.
2016-17: Varlamov (.904, No. 52); Elliott (.918, No. 36)
2017-18: Varlamov (.923, No. 22); Elliott (.926, No. 18)
2018-19: Varlamov (.916, No. 33); Elliott (.918, No. 27)
It makes people mad, not sure why, but Elliott shows well in these three year looks. He’s an NHL goalie. Need one.
OILERS MOCK!
No. 8 overall—RC-RW Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). This draft turned weird late and the USHL forwards have invaded the top 10 like the Beatles in 1964. Cozens brings quality in most areas, but the keys are skating, shooting and skill. I don’t know that he’s spend his career at center.
No. 38 overall—LW Nils Hoglander, Rogle (SHL). Ridiculous skill and advanced level (SHL) have Hoglander as an attractive pick early in the second round. Elite Prospects says there isn’t a more elusive player in this year’s class. Edmonton needs skilled men who can think and survive with McDavid. Nils might be one.
No. 85 overall—LC Karl Henrikson, Frolunda (SuperElite). A revelation at the U18’s, he’s very skilled and plays a strong game all over the ice. Undersized, I picked him because he’s a perfect Red Wing.
No. 100 overall—RD Cole Moberg, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Fascinating young player shoots the puck at an insane rate, has a nice size/skill component and appears to be astute defensively.
No. 162 overall—RW Eric Uba, Flint Firebirds (OHL) . He didn’t get himself traded from Flint, so that’s a sign of character. He’s a worker and has some skill, will need some luck.
No. 193 overall—L Ethan Phillips, Sioux Falls (USHL). He’s just 5.09, 155 but is another fantastic skill prospect. Added to Hoglander, Cozens and Uba, I think the Oilers would have improved their skill at forward tremendously.
Salary Cap is a thing. You have to get rid of Lucic and Russell and take on no cap doing so.
And then actually trade for Subban using assets.
Maatta is a good defensive defenseman and only 24. His only deficiency is skating, There’s also the health concerns.
He’s good at zone exit passes, has an on-ice Sv% of 92.48 (these are three year avg, due to time missed), and rel high danger goals against/60 of -0.11 and rel shots against/60 of 0.67. PDO is 1.005. Good numbers on blocks and hits too.
Natural stat trick has defensive stats, yay!
Good trade for the Hawks, they needed help on defense, and have a lot of good young forwards, plus they’re probably gonna add another good one at the draft.
Klefbom/Subban
Nurse/Larsson
Sekera/Benning
That wins you Stanley Cups!
The three year term on Subban is perfect.
In my opinion, Maksimov’s season is being materially under-rated. He started off the season with a goal scoring bump over last year, on pace for 50 goals. Once Niagara loaded up, he was asked, and agreed to, take on more of a “2-way” “all purpose” role and took less offensive opportunities. He still produced well and excelled in the role he was asked to play. We should remember, Maksi is more than an offensive guy and a shooter, he is a plus defensive player and a great penalty killer at the CHL level.
Yup, it boggles my mind a bit when Benson is though of as a top prospect in the org and Puljujarvi is all but a bust that should be given away. They are essentially the same age. Yup, diverging arrows right now but does anyone think that Jesse wouldn’t have been right at a PPG if given 60 AHL games? His 4 games stint provided 17 shots on net, 4 points, a fight, and the best player on the ice in 2 of the 4 games.
Yes. Ehlers over Huberdeau. Huberdeau is good, but Barkov and Trocheck are the guys driving the bus in Florida.
And Subban at 9 million is a bad idea.
Damn! Yes, Bouchard. I’ve got draft on the brain.
Maatta and Crosby had an 87% goal share together.
Maatta was 58% without Malkin. Malkin was 49% without Maatta.
This is not helping.
On the front-end of it, very nice trade by Pittsburgh. That said, Pittsburgh now needs a d-man (Maata >>> Johnson). Will be interesting to see who they pick-up.
Bowen Byram Birthday: Jun 13 2001
Dmitri Samourukov Birthday: Jun 16 1999
4 months?
I think you mean Bouchard.
Maata without Crosby had a 37% goal share 5v5 last year. Crosby without Maataa had a 60% goal share
He’s going to have to get healthy and stay that way for a while to get his career back on track
Interesting thing I noticed doing the Oilers age clusters is that Samorukov and Bouchard are only 4 months apart in age. Same with Maksimov and McLeod, who are only 3 months and 3 weeks apart. It puts the great seasons of the two Russians in a pretty good light. Similarly, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi are only 4 months and 3 weeks apart. Benson and Puljujarvi are Only 2 months and three weeks apart. Maybe we should calm down on calling Puljujarvi a failure at this point. Copper Marody is the closest to McDavid in age (3 weeks). Nuge and Rattie are only 2 months, 1 week apart and Nygard is older than both of them.
Me neither. Its possible that there are a few teams that would take him but there isnt a good fit tradewise. Could Lucic get 3 million over the next 4 years? I dunno
Anyways doubtful like u said. If theres a team thats interested its more on Holland to make it work than for Lucic to risk 16 mill
The cancer was in 2014.
He should recover fully from the shoulder thing and be fine going forward.
Nurse for Ehlers is as bad of an idea as I’ve heard here in a while. Awful…I was going to insult Ehlers by calling him a word associated with cats, but instead I will just remind everybody that Darnell is 24, 279GP, just scored 26 and then 41pts yr over yr and is a stone cold killer.
Trade him for a buttersoft LW? Get serious.
Ah, yes. Thanks.
I should add Magnus Paajarvi, and Brandon Tanev too.
If we could get someone like Ehlers, and I doubt we could, I would do much rather trade the 8OV then Nurse or Klefbom.
It’s not his age that’s the issue.
He got cancer and then he’s been injured
His once bright future has been taken away from him
Now he just gets beat wide a lot
Good Lord. You know Maatta is just 24?
It’s a fine trade because the pens cleared some cap space and got a guy who scored 37 points in his rookie year (though at age 23). But Maatta is not awful.
This past season was the worst of his career. In each of the previous 3 years he played, and won 2nd pairing minutes. The trade works for both teams.
rickithebear,
I believe you meant no data for anyone
Well Maybe data for just the dog
Puljujarvi’s career most common linemates (everyone over 200 min):
Lucic 670
McDavid 408
Nuge 399
Strome 307
Khaira 292
Draisaitl 283
Burakovsky’s most common linemates over the past 3 seasons (also >200 min):
Eller 1147
Connolly 898
Backstrom 499
Oshie 392
Kuznetzov 252
Neither player can complain too much about shitty linemates IMO. And I think overall that JP could claim better linemates rather than worse.
Surprisingly Burakovsky scored 1.91/60 at 5on5 over the past 3 yrs (despite 35, 25 and 25 total points), so I guess it’s hard to say he actually did struggle. Puljujarvi’s only managed 1.14/60, though he’s much younger so we shouldn’t expect him to be on par yet.
The more I look the more I am convinced that Burakovsky is a worthwhile target though. I’m struggling with Puljujarvi’s valuation (as everyone is I guess). I’d prefer to keep JP and add Burakovsky for a pick.
Jaxon,
Miles Wood
A couple threads back, I asked Lowetide what he thought about Semyon Varlamov, the concern or discussion was about his cost.
If the Oilers could get Varlamov on the cheap that would be a win.
It would be interested to know what kind of quality of shots Varlamov took compared to Elliot given the team in front of them.
I’m not a huge advance states guy but I’m guessing Varlamov seen lot of high quality chances.
On the record, I believe ether Elliot or Varlamov should be a must acquisition.
How can you know any truth when you do not even understand the difference between a shot that has 0% chance of going in closed ( hit goalie) and open shot hitting open space in net elevation requiring a save.
You need to concentrate on Open shot chart.
No one does that.
The ask for data was from VOR.
The only one who mattered on here to me when it came to understanding multi variable analysis.
Analysis he got it.
That was around the time of cancer diagnosis
Then 4 months of cancer cocktail,
Prep for Stem cell transplant 1 month
Stem cell transplant involving 45 days of body rejecting food.
1 week of dementia (playing dragon soccer in game of thrones) partnered with 14 days of tube feeding.
2 weeks of being helped to the shower by 4 staff daily sitting in my own shit, piss & puke then rincing off repeat.
Kidney failure with dialysis in around the
Getting out of hospital after 90 days.
1 month without drugs.
Put on Revlammid for duration.
Lots of days with no energy and sleeping for 20 hrs a day during this whole time.
Last 2 weeks have been up for 1 HR to be with kids before going to school.
Waking up again once they are back from school.
Staying up with them till they go to bed if I can.
Did some preliminary work on multivariable analysis of NFL win mechanism, schemes, roster structures.
When it comes to my data.
I was going to try to approach Tippett thru Ronnie Gunville (PA raiders director of player personel) when Tippett was with Seattle.
Tippet briefly went to same school in PA. ( played on same school hockey team for couple games)
He might be aware of who I am.
But my wife had asked me to save it for my own web site.
For all my theories
and
the cup roster deficiencies for each team.
She has individuals willing to help with site construction.
All of this is zero priority until I can get any standard of life.
Or
If Cancer proteins return and financial viable self running web site becomes part of the priority.
No data for you!
If you were keeping an eye out for the fastest players in the league to add to your roster, who would you add to this list? Is there anyone that shouldn’t be on this list. If I’m building a team around McDavid I think I’d want it to be the dates team on the planet.
Player POS AGE
Clayton Keller C 20
Jack Roslovic C 21
Connor McDavid C 21
Dylan Larkin C 22
Jack Eichel C 22
Nathan MacKinnon C 23
Tyler Seguin C 26
Matt Duchene C 27
Steven Stamkos C 28
Sidney Crosby C 31
Jeff Carter C 33
Darnell Nurse LD 23
Michael Matheson LD 24
Nick Leddy LD 27
Duncan Keith LD 35
Nik Ehlers LW 22
Jonathan Drouin LW 23
Andreas Athanasiou LW 24
Ryan Dzingel LW 26
Brendan Saad LW 26
Chris Kreider LW 27
Taylor Hall LW 27
Mike Hoffman LW 29
Paul Byron LW 29
Carl Hagelin LW 30
Andrew Cogliano LW 31
Darren Helm LW 31
Ilya Kovalchuk LW 35
Jason Chimera LW 39
Erik Karlsson RD 28
Kris Letang RD 31
Dustin Byfuglien RD 33
Kasperi Kapanen RW 22
Patirck Kane RW 30
Phil Kessel RW 31
Michael Grabner RW 31
Alex Radulov RW 32
Alex Ovechkin RW/LW 33
Dylan Cozens
John Beecher
Alex Newhook
Philip Broberg
Jack Hughes
I am not on board trading Nurse unless there was a return that can’t be turned down but I can’t get on side that statement. What were we left with after Petry was traded? Shultz, Fayne, Nikitin?
We already have Klefbom playing above Nurse and Sekera to cover for Nurse.
Not proven yet but I posit that one of Jones or Lagesson will be able to cover 3LD, maybe even both. No sure bet but Samorukov may come to help in a year or two.
The left D depth right now draws the right D depth when Petry was traded.
Yes, I get trading players entering their primes but this is not the same situation.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=drivesdk
This is my Oilers age cluster table. I made this in an attempt to surmise when the Oilers will be at their peak, with the best chance to win the Cup. I think it’s a valuable tool to have when making roster decisions.
My premise is that forwards, defencemen, and goalies typically peak at different times. I’ve color coded the peaks in order visualize it better. When nearly the entire team, and especially the core players, are in the yellow, orange and red range, the Oilers will have their best chance at winning.
Right now, it looks like 2022-23 will be their best opportunity with a major improvement following the upcoming 2019-20 season as some’green’ players migrate into their NHL pro era. The Oilers should continue to be highly competitive right through McDavid’s contract, which finishes after the 2025-26 season.
I think they should keep Nurse, maybe sign a forward or two (I like Duchene depending on cap hit), and draft two fast forward snipers (I’ve already optimistically included Cozens and Beecher in this table). Forwards from next week’s draft should migrate into valuable pro status alongside the older Bouchard.
Have a look and let me know your thoughts. The age ranges for forwards, defencemen, and goalies are mostly by guy without a lot of rigorous scientific data used other than looking up when a bunch of players become NHL regulars, when they peak, and when they fall of cliffs.
Legend : F , D , G
Draft : 17-18 , 17-18 , 17-18
Green : 19-20 , 19-22 , 19-22
Pro : 21-23 , 23-25 , 23-27
Prime : 24-26 , 26-28 , 28-30
Young Vet : 27-29 , 29-30 , 31-31
Vet : 30-32 , 31-32 , 32-34
Downhill : 33-35 , 33-35 , 35-37
Retiree : 36-38 , 36-38 , 38-40
Jagr/Chara/Luongo : 39+ , 39+ , 41+
Whoa – Ehlers over Huburdeau? Two more years of term is nice but Huburdeau, over 90 points and under $6M for the next four years, his 27-31 age years – that size and skill along with McDavid and Drai would be unreal.
We could then trade Nuge for Subban and, boom, cup!
“BURKE: Weighing the Risk and Reward of NHL Draft Prospect Philip Broberg”
https://www.eprinkside.com/2019/6/13/burke-weighing-the-risk-and-reward-of-nhl-draft-prospect-philip-broberg
No Toyota Carroll!
Mopar man I was in my youth.
69 convertible Cuda
72 Dart
73 fast back duster owner
Should of
Could of
Everyone not trolling is entitled to their opinion and should be welcomed in the discussion, please show respect to one another. Thx.
I love Holland’s pressers. He says exactly what I want to hear. I hope he does it.
When he said you can’t have too many small players, however they can contribute, and that personal drive is important, it was manna for me.
Coming from his background and teams, he gets ‘balance’. The Oilers haven’t got balance in donkey’s years.
The Oilers can compete for a playoff spot easily with the core they have. It’s the easy parts missing.
It may take a bit to trust competence. But competence makes the team formidable in the short term IMO.
Not just because St Louis won. Because they have really good players that have been comprised by wrong headed thinking.
rickithebear,
Was it a ’64 Malibu that got stolen..?
Let me guess
Your stolen car had your data sets in it
And they are gone again
rickithebear,
What on earth are you babbling about
The matter is you talk about all these analysis techniques and when someone called you out on showing some data a couple of years ago it vanished
And somehow you continue liking these terrible defensemen
We thought you may have learned your lesson after being the only one in favor of the Manning trade
Looks like he has an injury history as well- 1 season in the last 5 with a full season played
Matta is a top 30 open sh HD dman.
A young Hjarlmasson replaced!
+44 in 2 cup seasons
+9 last year.
Not rover adjusted numbers.
F……………..
Maata is awful
Nice trade for pens to shed cap
Why would you care about higher than grade 24 analytics.
Oh wait.
Unless you are into stealing cars.
Had one of my cars stolen while I left it running outside a confectionary store.
He pulled out in front of a cop.
While I was on the phone to police.
I said , “ pulled out in front of one of your cars near the comuniplex.”
“ just a minute sir”
They get back on line
“ sir your car is in a high speed chase”
He crashed it near three reserves.
The dogs lost trail of him.
Turns out rubbing yourself with dog shit is a common practice for some car thieves off reserves.
You after the dog shit?
So your not really a farmer?
Increases the odds of Byram going #5OV
Olli Maatta to the Hawks for a prospect
Looked at cap friendly?
I will look again.
6M that is Eberle 13-14 contract for ebelws consistent 23g 59p production.
Yes 3 good lefties when it comes 2 championship standard.
1 good – Sekera
2 god for nothing – Nurse, Klefbom
Last 6 years when I talked to Math Academics I allways ask about Bolean math (multivariable)
Their are no lead mathematicians that direct them to it.
Often causing Math students interested in Bolean to seek multivariable Analysis.
Two I know have become doctors cause they get to do health identification based on multivariable symptom analysis.
Many become dynamic system engineers.
Binary is really grade 8 level of math thinking applied to university level of discussion.
Multi variable is higher than grade 24 ( post docarate) thinking.
Multivariable is migrating into academia as leading binary experts in math & sciences reject their own work for multi variable aproach.
Love who it is looking @ transition passing from Dmen.
which is one of the critical factors in off zone entry rates
based on my SOE multi variable affects results.
That they identified Russel was #2 transition passing Dman was real awesome.
Might have been Pescador.
By next year you have a far better read on what you actually have in both your young D and wether JP or Benson can be substantial adds on the wing. It s like betting on your draw poker hand before you see what you have got on the draw. One year can make a substantial difference in your team needs.
rickithebear,
Has your dog passed the multivariable analysis charts that he ate yet?
Ricki: Ehlers is signed through 2025 summer.
Trading Nurse would be as catastrophic as trading Petry was.
Goaltenders are dependent on the expected Save% the Dpairs established by the shot density of shots that have a greater than 0% chance of going in.
The Open shot density that excludes shots that hit the goalie in the pads, body, arms, glove & blocker requiring no movement cause of table hockey goalie positioning relative to the puck.
Every analyst fails to exclude non scorable shots because of the desire to hold to a binary approach.
Making all shot density heat chart an embarrassment to real sports analysts ( multivariable).
You want to establish the highest expected save% from your defensive pairs by reducing the high danger density and open shot%.
In 16-17 Nurse was not a contract chasing rover. We were one of the better expected HD open sh save% defences.
Last 2 years Klefbom & Nurse have been a failure in maintaining the 2-1 ga structure best suited for championship play.
Dragging down
1. a historical top 5 1st comp HD dman Larsson
2. League #1 open shot reducing Dman Russell
3. Historical top 5 2 Nd comp HD dman Sekera
4. Top 60 HD man Benning
Chiarelli failed by over reducing our Goal production from the forward group.
Eberle should have never been traded.
Reinhart was a waste of Pit #16 MacT acquired.
20 min of top 5 HD dman for 15 min of injury prone #1 forward who misses 17 games a season is a no brainer in multi variable analytics. The 17 missed games causes top 60 (#2) forward offensive production.
I have said this for 2 years now I would sacrifice one of Klefbom or Nurse for forward goal production ( not pt production).
Klefbom first if Nurse becomes a team player.
Nurse could be an elite HD dman if he played like he does with National teams and like he did in 16-17 in Edmonton.
Otherwise he is a bottom 10 in league open shot dman. Resulting in his history of bottom 10 evga/60.
LT: How much would ehlers cost? 7+M?
It replaces Eberle,s 23g per season.
Anyhow fix away fans!
This is why I think a Klefbom/Nurse for Ehlers deal makes some sense.
We have veteran cover for 2 years and 3 promising youngsters coming. Weakens the defense for this year but strengthens the forward group.
The closest impact forward the Oilers have coming is probably the guy they draft at 8OV. They have a lot more options on the backend.
Ehlers is probably at his lowest value right now. I prefer him to Huberdeau because he is younger, and signed for 6 more years. That kind of cost certainty, through Mcdavids contract, is huge.
I think if the Oilers draft a forward they should maintain the status quo. But if they draft Broberg, a Klefbom for Ehlers plus makes a lot of sense.
Yes, I know, I posted the Berglund story on here last week
And I think it was $13M
I don’t imagine Lucic would be interested in walking about from 16 million dollars.