Draft Week Post No. 2: Chasing Shadows, Moonlight Mystery

Did you ever hear the story of the Hunt brothers and cornering the silver market? Nelson Bunker Hunt invented his brother Herbert and then the two of them acquired two thirds of the world’s silver supply in an effort to build a James Bond movie. In the end, they lost an enormous fortune. A brother, Lamar, is often mentioned as a footnote in the silver story, America owing him a major debt for coining the name “Super Bowl” for the annual NFL championship. He suggested it at a meeting shortly after leaving his house with his children in pursuit of a ‘super ball’, the most frustrating toy of my childhood (here, specifically the roof scene).

Cornering the market on silver was a crazy idea, as is trying to corner the market on defensive prospects. This week, Ken Holland may take another defenseman inside the top 10 — running the team’s total to three in seven years. If Phil Broberg joins Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse, Edmonton will have devoted triple the number of top 10 overall picks on defensemen in those seven years than they did in the period 1979-2012 (Paul Coffey).

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Fixing the third and fourth lines while saving money and overhauling the penalty kill
  • New Jonathan Willis: How are the Oilers affected by early offseason trades and buyouts to Dion Phaneuf, Andrew MacDonald?
  • New Lowetide: Falling talent and other fun facts that could benefit the Oilers in the NHL Draft
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • New Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanQ&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?

WORKING ROSTER 2019-20

I’ve included the RFA’s and estimated cap hits from Matt Cane (here). Edmonton won’t sign Rieder and may trade Puljujarvi, but this is the point where we begin. I didn’t include a backup goalie, that hole may not get filled until early July. We don’t have the cap number but we’ll get that this week, too. Reading the tea leaves, it might be less than $83 million, that may force more buyouts.

MCKENZIE’S LIST

Bob McKenzie’s list is out today, cannot wait for it. McKenzie used to be the editor of The Hockey News, and built their annual draft list into the industry standard. Once he hit television, McKenzie established his consensus list that is now the industry’s bible. I’ll be especially interested to see movement inside the top 10 overall and the number of USHL kids near the top. His list a year ago closely mirrored the Oilers list (clearly).

We’ll talk about this more at some point, but I think McKenzie warrants consideration in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Not the media division, but rather as a builder. Seriously. The NHL draft is one of the major events on the calendar for the league, and McKenzie’s diligence in making the annual ranking (plus some marketing savvy by TSN) have resulted in an enormous industry boom. How much is the NHL draft worth?

How much more compelling is following along now as compared to 1974? A whole helluva lot, and McKenzie helped build it. The consensus list gives us a starting point, and a battering ram against stupidity by the local team. It’s like watching a poker game where the viewer gets to see all the cards. If you remember the draft before he arrived, you know the value. Anyway. McKenzie. HHOF. Worth considering.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS WORKING ROSTER 2019-20

How many recalls do you see here? I see Evan Bouchard, Caleb Jones, Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson, Joel Persson, Ethan Bear, Josh Currie, Patrick Russell, Kailer Yamamoto, Shane Starrett and others. How many recalls do you see in a typical year? How well do they do? Here’s last year:

Kevin Gravel was recalled October 19, played two games and was returned. He got another call on November 1, and hung around the rest of the season. He finished 36, 0-3-3, underlying numbers were solid and he should be in the NHL next season as a 7D or better. Unlikely with the Oilers. He is 27.

Cooper Marody was recalled October 21, he stayed up until November 2. In that first look, he played two games, playing less than 10 minutes both times (two shots in each game). His second recall came November 10 and he was dispatched on November 23 with the coaching change. He played four games, only one more than 10 minutes. He was recalled in December (6-11) but did not play, finishing 6, 0-0-0 on the season. He is 22 and we should see him more in 2019-20. In a lost season, Oilers should have played him more up top, in my opinion.

Patrick Russell was called up November 15, and would play four games in his first look without registering a point. He looked capable as a fourth line player (not a lot of offense) but was sent back November 30. A quick recall (Dec. 2-5) got him two more games, and he finished 6, 0-0-0. He is 26 and was a Group 6 free agent (UFA) before re-signing with Edmonton in the last few days.

Caleb Jones is the star of our look at 2018-19 recalls. He got the call on December 12, and he returned to the AHL January 21 for the remainder of the minor league season. While in Edmonton, the young man impressed with his speed and guile, making smart plays with the puck and adjusting to the speed of the NHL game. Jones played some tough minutes due to injury, played over 20 minutes seven times. He is NHL-ready and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Edmonton’s new general manager make room for him via a summer trade. He went 17, 1-5-6 and he just turned 22.

Joe Gambardella was recalled December 30 and played his first game the next night—the same night his brother worked his first shift as a NYC police officer. He hung around the first time until January 15, playing in four games and not showing a lot. His second recall had more impact, as he arrived March 15 and played through the end of the season. An impressive forechecker, he showed skill as well, finishing 15, 0-3-3 on the year. I think he has a chance to play more games for Edmonton in 2019-20.

Brad Malone got a call January 31, and like Gambardella spent the rest of the season on the NHL roster. He played 16 games with no points. He recently signed with Edmonton.

Josh Currie received a late recall, February 18. I often wonder how many times he’d be in a conversation for the call to the NHL before. No matter, he took full advantage upon arrival and stayed for the rest of the year. He went 21, 2-3-5 and impressed, suspect he’s about where Gambardella is on the organization’s depth chart. He is 26.

  1. Caleb Jones 17, 1-5-6
  2. Josh Currie 21, 2-3-5
  3. Kevin Gravel 36, 0-3-3
  4. Joe Gambardella 15, 0-3-3
  5. Brad Malone 16, 0-0-0
  6. Cooper Marody 6, 0-0-0
  7. Patrick Russell 6, 0-0-0

Last year, the recalls played 117 games, scored three goals and 17 points. Next year’s recalls will blow that away.

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259 Responses to "Draft Week Post No. 2: Chasing Shadows, Moonlight Mystery"

Newer Comments »
  1. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon: You are correct,I’ve fixed.

  2. Reja says:

    64 games for recalled forwards 2 goals. Holy Batfink.

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – The Hunt brothers was my first introduction into the world of finance, and left a strong impression on me. I can recall as a little boy when this happened (early 80’s). My Dad would be listening every evening on the radio and getting updates on the gold and silver prices while the hunt Brother’s took this audacious run: it was riveting: like listening to sports highlights every evening

    – Every day, for weeks, the price of Gold and Silver would go up (Gold was historically around $200-$300 dollars, Silver maybe $9). So as this run was going on, the prices went up and up: gold climbing to over $800 and Silver above $50. As a Kid, it was fascinating to hear this

    – So after listening to this for a few weeks, I offered my first bit of financial advice: wisely recommending: “Dad, you should just put all your money in Gold and Silver, it just goes up every day”. My Dad gave me this look and smile and I can still vividly remember him saying: “son it doesn’t work that way, one day you will understand”

    – I use that story and the Hunt brother’s often: thanks for sharing that LT. Of course I could go on and on about asset allocation, correlation of metals, and why accumulating a lot of D isn’t the same thing as single asset risk, but that’s not your point: because we all know that Holland isn’t going to blow up like the Hunt brother: right! but they are still Billionaires…

    – Fun facts: the AFC Trophy is called the Lamar Hunt Trophy – one of those Hunt Brothers, former owner of KC, and also the guy who started the “Open Tennis” era, with the founding of the WTA (replacing the previous non-professional tennis association). When they talk about Tennis records, they are all in the context of “since the Open era”, or before.

  4. Oil2Oilers says:

    Hitting update on the TSN site for the Bob list, seeing Karlson got 8 years. Impressive with his injury history. The TSN website auto play videos make it a nightmare on mobile. It is a horrible resource and a disservice to it’s content.

  5. Oil2Oilers says:

    Not willing to download a TSN app to see the Bob list a few hours early.

    Fuck you TSN your website makes Sportsnet NHL coverage look competent.

  6. Rondo says:

    Bob McKenzie’s list at #8 Podkolzin

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    So Karlsson is re-upping in San Jose. Lots of dominoes to fall from that – especially if the cap ends up being less than $83M. There will be some decent players available this summer for less than their normal market value.

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Bob McKenzie’s listat #8Podkolzin

    Can you share the top-10?

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: So after listening to this for a few weeks, I offered my first bit of financial advice: wisely recommending: “Dad, you should just put all your money in Gold and Silver, it just goes up every day”. My Dad gave me this look and smile and I can still vividly remember him saying: “son it doesn’t work that way, one day you will understand”

    Haha. I remember when the Viper 1st came out I asked my Dad how much our house was worth. Some quick calculations showed that if we sold the house we could afford 5 Vipers… for some reason he didn’t see my brilliance right at that moment.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really don’t know much about the top ranked prospects this year but, from what I have read on Broberg, he’s got some similar attributes and deficiencies to Nurse – elite skating and ability to skate the puck but, potentially, some issues with “decision making” or “hockey IQ” as it relates to passing and making plays.

    I’m starting to give more credence to “smart” hockey players.

    Not to say, I wouldn’t be OK with drafting this player but I’d have a bit of concern about another high end d-man that may have trouble with transition via pass and making the right play.

    Of course, I stand to be corrected on this player.

    I do think Holland goes for a forward.

    Not that this is a primary concern, but a factor, while any player taken at 8 this year should be given at least a few years before they are expected to contribute at the NHL level, d-men generally do take longer and, from what I’ve read, Brogerg could use 2 more years in Sweden which likely means at 4 years until he’s ready to make a real impact. That’s cool but the forwards, who we could use, will likely be ready a bit earlier and for more a more material role and the much needed “value contract”.

  11. Pescador says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Hitting update on the TSN site for the Bob list, seeing Karlson got 8 years. Impressive with his injury history. The TSN website auto play videos make it a nightmare on mobile. It is a horrible resource and a disservice to it’s content.

    It truly is gross, I read the articles and avoid the videos whenever possible.
    Beyond the understanding that the adverts are how the website makes money, I’m sure there is much that I don’t understand.
    Nothing will turn me farther away from your products or brand than annoying commercials.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lost bets to Pouzar and Ryan on Karlsson.

    Bah!!

    Pouzar’s charity of choice is already paid.

    Ryan, please remind me which charity (if any) gets the $$

  13. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Hughes
    Kakko
    Byram
    Turcotte
    Dach
    Cozens
    Zegras
    Podkolzin
    Caufield
    Krebs

  14. texmex says:

    ArmchairGM:
    So Karlsson is re-upping in San Jose. Lots of dominoes to fall from that – especially if the cap ends up being less than $83M. There will be some decent players available this summer for less than their normal market value.

    SJ is paying 26.5 million to 3D. WOW.

  15. Professor Q says:

    Pouzar:
    jp,

    Simon Boisvert (@simonsnake70) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/simonsnake70

    In 2024-25, the Sharks will be paying $41M to five players, all aged between 34 and 39: Kane, Couture, Karlsson, Vlasic, Burns. Even if the cap reaches $100M, that’s a big chunk for an aging core.
    23 mins ago

    And can you imagine if Tavares had, in fact, decided to sign that 8 x $13.5 million offer? Sure, Karlsson likely ends up in Vegas or Florida instead, but that would still have been a huge chunk if everything fell the same way.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn, I was hoping the flames would sign Karlsson to a 7 X $11M deal – shucks!

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    ArmchairGM,

    Hughes
    Kakko
    Byram
    Turcotte
    Dach
    Cozens
    Zegras
    Podkolzin
    Caufield
    Krebs

    Thanks! I see Mackenzie has Broberg behind Soderstrom and Seider down at #16.

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mckenzie’s consensus is always informative as its a look in to where the actual NHL teams rank these players.

  19. gn68 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agree no one should get too excited about immediate value from pick #8

    One third of the current roster are players picked before #8

    1 Connor
    2 Leon
    3 Nuge
    4 Nurse
    5Larsson
    6 Gagner
    7 Jesse

    And one number one pick was traded away for pixie dust

    So getting high picks does not always translate into a playoff team

  20. Oil2Oilers says:

    Pescador: It truly is gross, I read the articles and avoid the videos whenever possible.
    Beyond the understanding that the adverts are how the website makes money, I’m sure there is much that I don’t understand.
    Nothing will turn me farther away from your products or brand than annoying commercials.

    Agreed I don’t mind people trying to pay the bills, heck LT has even got me addicted to Fifendekel pies. But annoying me just turns me off both the platform and who they are shilling for.

  21. jp says:

    Reja:
    64 games for recalled forwards2 goals. Holy Batfink.

    Remember they played in the Oilers bottom 6. So the recalls were par for the course.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think Manning is on the NHL roster to start the season and its likely that Jones will be. If there are no dispositions of the “incumbent 6”, I think its likely they start the year with 8D and 13F with Persson being the other newbie – leaving the Condors with:

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    Manning

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    Kaliyev ranked 21, 7 – 45 on scouts lists
    Tomasino 22
    Brink at 26

    Might be worthwhile looking at a move-up scenario using the #38 + something else.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its really hard to know which forwards may break camp with the team (Benson and or Joe G) and who may see action through the year. The former is dependent on what the new GM does in the off-season and we know his priority is better skill and depth in the bottom 6

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Hobbled Karlsson was fantastic last season. Curious to see how he plays next season after some rehab. IMO big win for SJ for the next 4 years.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    Rondo:
    ArmchairGM,

    Hughes
    Kakko
    Byram
    Turcotte
    Dach
    Cozens
    Zegras
    Podkolzin
    Caufield
    Krebs

    Gotta love those top 6.

    We need two out of order picks to land one of the top 6.

    So assuming Mackenzies top 6 are gone, who does anyone want next?

  27. jonrmcleod says:

    How did Nelson invent his brother Herbert? Inquiring minds want to know.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    The details for those just reading along

    he San Jose Sharks and veteran defender Erik Karlsson have agreed to terms on an eight-year contract extension worth over $90 million, according to Pierre LeBrun. As Bob McKenzie mentions, the deal is worth roughly $11.5 million per season and makes him the third-highest paid player in the NHL behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.

  29. Rondo says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I’ll still stick to my original prediction Krebs, Boldy, Podkolzin. Cozens is the only guy that could fall from the top 7 in my opinion.

  30. Andy Dufresne says:

    Erik Karlsson deal to me says SJ has a management team that has pushed all in at contending for the cup over the next 3 years.

    Injury and Age make this contract a huge risk past the three year mark. No one ever won anything playing it safe.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Rondo:
    Bob McKenzies List

    https://www.tsn.ca/americans-set-to-dominate-first-round-of-the-nhl-draft-1.1323878

    Podkolzin at 8
    Nolan Foote at 38
    Judd Caulfield at 85

  32. dustrock says:

    Bob’s got Beecher at #41, that’s perfect for Edmonton. Really hope he’s there for us.

  33. GBandQ says:

    Rondo:
    ArmchairGM,

    Hughes
    Kakko
    Byram
    Turcotte
    Dach
    Cozens
    Zegras
    Podkolzin
    Caufield
    Krebs

    So do you, A) try to move up a spot to ensure you can grab Zegras,
    B) take Caufield, C) go off off Bob’s list a bit and take Broberg, or D) stand pat and take Podkolzin?

  34. Andy Dufresne says:

    6 USHL kids in the top 12 of Mckenzies list.

    Including Spencer Knight, a goalie at 12

  35. Coiler says:

    Wow, serious dollars to be paid to Mr. Karlsson. Kudos to him and San Jose for making it work. I’m not sure how it’ll actually ‘work’ long term for the team but Doug Wilson is a pretty astute GM so I guess he knows what he’s doing.

    I reckon Holland will take the best forward available.

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    GBandQ: So do you, A)try to move up a spot to ensure you can grab Zegras,
    B) take Caufield, C) go off off Bob’s list a bit and take Broberg, or D) stand pat and take Podkolzin?

    I would take Podkolzin.

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    GBandQ: So do you, A)try to move up a spot to ensure you can grab Zegras,
    B) take Caufield, C) go off off Bob’s list a bit and take Broberg, or D) stand pat and take Podkolzin?

    Assuming Bobs top 6 are gone, what do you get if you trade away the #8 and move down to say 15?

    Does that get you an additional early 2nd rounder?

    Ottawa at 19 and 32?
    Minnesota 12 and 42?
    Los Angles 22 and 33?

  38. Reja says:

    jp: Remember they played in the Oilers bottom 6. So the recalls were par for the course.

    Which golf course pitch and putt.

  39. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – The Hunt brothers was my first introduction into the world of finance, and left a strong impression on me.I can recall as a little boy when this happened (early 80’s).My Dad would be listening every evening on the radio and getting updates on the gold and silver prices while the hunt Brother’s took this audacious run: it was riveting: like listening to sports highlights every evening

    – Every day, for weeks, the price of Gold and Silver would go up (Gold was historically around $200-$300 dollars, Silver maybe $9).So as this run was going on, the prices went up and up: gold climbing to over $800 and Silver above $50.As a Kid, it was fascinating to hear this

    – So after listening to this for a few weeks, I offered my first bit of financial advice: wisely recommending: “Dad, you should just put all your money in Gold and Silver, it just goes up every day”.My Dad gave me this look and smile and I can still vividly remember him saying: “son it doesn’t work that way, one day you will understand”

    You remind me that the silver run was also my first brush with investing.

    I had been traveling – a year sailing in the Mediterranean with friends – and arriving back in Canada broke I needed a job so while visiting my brother up north I got myself hired to a fire tower way up in northern Alberta. I spent 7 months there and with no way to spend money I actually had some when I got out.

    I was in my mid twenties at the time and when I arrived back in Edmonton the silver craze was in full swing. All of my friends had bought in to one degree or another.

    Anyway, I got in late because I had been on my tower but I took a few thousand and bought at $18. When it hit $36 I sold and every one of my friends laughed at me and told me I was an idiot.

    As far as I know they all still own the silver they bought because, as you know, bull runs go up at a 45 degree angle but when they crash it is closer to straight down.

    Thanks to you and LT for reminding me of some of my misspent youth. 😉

  40. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Lost bets to Pouzar and Ryan on Karlsson.

    Bah!!

    Pouzar’s charity of choice is already paid.

    Ryan, please remind me which charity (if any) gets the $$

    Thx again!

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Assuming Bobs top 6 are gone, what do you get if you trade away the #8 and move down to say 15?

    Does that get you an additional early 2nd rounder?

    More than that, for sure.

  42. Pescador says:

    GBandQ: So do you, A)try to move up a spot to ensure you can grab Zegras,
    B) take Caufield, C) go off off Bob’s list a bit and take Broberg, or D) stand pat and take Podkolzin?

    Someone here will recall what the precedent is but I’ll guess the cost to move up 1 spot is our second round pick.
    I would not want Holland to pay that price.
    Predicting the top 7 draft table to follow the consensus order,
    which sucks for us, praying for Cozens.
    I fear our selection will be an injured Krebs at #8

  43. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: I would take Podkolzin.

    Risky

  44. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne: Assuming Bobs top 6 are gone, what do you get if you trade away the #8 and move down to say 15?

    Does that get you an additional early 2nd rounder?

    Ottawa at 19 and 32?

    My trade would be Oilers #8 and Gagner to Ottawa for #19 and Jean Gabriel Pageau.

  45. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    So Karlsson is re-upping in San Jose. Lots of dominoes to fall from that – especially if the cap ends up being less than $83M. There will be some decent players available this summer for less than their normal market value.

    For sure there will be. Hopefully the Oilers can benefit from a couple of them. It’s a shame they aren’t better positioned to though.

    And the Sharks. They have $13M left to re-sign 6 or 7 forwards including Pavelksi, Labanc, Meier, Thornton, Nyquist, Donskoi. Just the two RFAs (Labanc and Meier) plus league minimum guys is going to burn though most of the available cap. Hell of a D for now though!

  46. Rondo says:

    Ryan Johnson at #38.

  47. godot10 says:

    Pescador: Someone here will recall what the precedent is but I’ll guess the cost to move up 1 spot is our second round pick.
    I would not want Holland to pay that price.
    Predicting the top 7 draft table to follow the consensus order,
    which sucks for us, praying for Cozens.
    I fear our selection will be an injured Krebs at #8

    If not Cozens, then Krebs. I’m fine with that.

  48. GBandQ says:

    Reja,

    i think i want Caufield

  49. Lowetide says:

    Bob’s top 10 and mine are basically the same, I have Kaliyev at 4 and he has Podkolzin at 8.

    Mine

    1 LC Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
    2 R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga).
    3 LHD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL).
    4 LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
    5 L Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton (OHL).
    6 RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL).
    7 R Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge (WHL).
    8 LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
    9 R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
    10 LC Peyton Krebs, Kootenay (WHL).

    BM:

    1 Hughes
    2 Kakko
    3 Byram
    4 Turcotte
    5 Dach
    6 Cozens
    7 Zegras
    8 Podkolzin
    9 Caufield
    10 Krebs

    Easily the closest match ever. The industry is adopting math. Save Kaliyev.

  50. Rube Foster says:

    Reja: Risky

    Less risky now that we have one of the league’s best “Russian Whispers” in Holland running our show.

    If the OBC was still running the show I would say stay away from Mother Russia, but now that we have Holland at the helm is it safe for us shop in the Russian aisle?

  51. jp says:

    Reja: Which golf course pitch and putt.

    Not the good one.

    It is remarkable how bad the Oilers bottom 6 was though. Those poor callups had no one to help them along.

    If you take the Oilers top 6 to be McDavid, Drasisitl, RNH, Chiasson, Kassian and Gagner (I also removed Caggiula), the remaining Oilers forwards scored per 82 games 4.76G, 9.98A, 14.74PTS. Just so bad.

    Bright side, it shouldn’t be difficult for Holland to make improvements.

  52. YKOil says:

    ArmchairGM:
    So Karlsson is re-upping in San Jose. Lots of dominoes to fall from that – especially if the cap ends up being less than $83M. There will be some decent players available this summer for less than their normal market value.

    Loving this actually. Oilers will pay a price sooner than later (Nurse: next year) but San Jose just blew their brains out:

    – 8 players to sign with some $12m to $13m to spend.
    – Thornton will probably take the Chara contract ($2m) leaving $10m or so
    – holding spots for four key players means three $850,000-ish contracts leaving $8.0m or so

    So $8.0m for some combination of:

    – Pavelski
    – Nyquist
    – Donskoi
    – Meier
    – Lebanc

    Nyquist and Donskoi just came available and one of Pavelski, Meier or Lebanc will pop free as well. My sincere hope is they sign Pavelski but the signs say he will be an UFA.

    That said, I would be on the phone with San Jose re: Lebanc/Meier every chance I get.

    Upside for the Oilers is twofold:

    – more UFA’s available (and there are a lot of different pluses in that that piece)
    – Russell’s value just went up (fewer defensemen, that can play RHD, available in UFA)

    Good day, overall, for Holland.

  53. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: More than that, for sure.

    Not really.

    the # 8 pick has a value of 629.

    the #15 pick has a value of 433

    the #44 pick as a value of 196

    So, generally speaking, 8 gets you 15 and 44

    So Ottawas picks at 19 (364) + 32 (264) are the closest match Total 628

    SO would anyone give up #8 for 19 and 32, Giving us 19,32, and 38 ?

    Thats 3 picks in the top 38.

    Youd get someone pretty good at 19 for sure.

    For Ottawa it would be like getting back the first rounder they gave away to Colorado.

    =====================================

    Minnesota #12 (507) + #42(203) = 710 We would have to add in our 4th round pick (#100) valued at 107

    SO #8 and #100 for #12 and #42 Any Takers??

  54. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    GBandQ: So do you, A)try to move up a spot to ensure you can grab Zegras,
    B) take Caufield, C) go off off Bob’s list a bit and take Broberg, or D) stand pat and take Podkolzin?

    If that’s how it plays out, I’d try to trade down. You might be able to add a decent winger and a second rounder by moving back a few spots. I’m not crazy about Caufield or Podkolzin. Kaliyev or Lavoie would be fine with me in that scenario. I’m hoping someone slides to us though.

  55. jp says:

    jp: For sure there will be. Hopefully the Oilers can benefit from a couple of them. It’s a shame they aren’t better positioned to though.

    And the Sharks. They have $13M left to re-sign 6 or 7 forwards including Pavelksi, Labanc, Meier, Thornton, Nyquist, Donskoi. Just the two RFAs (Labanc and Meier) plus league minimum guys is going to burn though most of the available cap. Hell of a D for now though!

    Just looking at how the sharks will move forward, I’ve got to think they want to bring Pavelski back at least.

    They’ve go 5 D making >$3M, good chance Braun or Dillon get moved in a cap dump. Both are UFA in another year.

    I know Holland said he’s not looking to improve the D, but Braun could be pretty attractive as a top 4 RD stop gap for the Oilers. Coming off a tough year too, so it’s possible.

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    Early prediciton, the Colorado Avalanche win the 2019 NHL Entry Draft.

    Followed closely by the New Jersey Devils.

    Followed very soon with Colorado trading Tyson Barrie and NJD trading Taylor hall.

  57. Reja says:

    GBandQ:
    Reja,

    i think i want Caufield

    If he was 3 inches taller where would he go in the draft. I’m sure when they’re scouting these 17 year-old 1st round kids they see how tall the mother, father older brother etc some of these kids have a second puberty. Definite exception would be Evan Bouchard

  58. Jordan says:

    Andy Dufresne: Gotta love those top 6.

    We need two out of order picks to land one of the top 6.

    So assuming Mackenzies top 6 are gone, who does anyone want next?

    If the top 6 are gone, I take offers to trade down.

    Looking at who holds which picks right now, I don’t see a lot of great options value-wise to trading down. This is what I see as possible:

    Anaheim has 9, 29 and 39 (doubt they would trade with the Oilers as the value change is so low).
    Vancouver has 10 and 40 (great value for the 8, might be too much for Vancouver to pay in a rebuild)
    Philadelphia has 11 and 41 (great value for the 8, Philly is crazy – maybe?)
    Minnesota has 12 and 42 (pretty good value for the 8, Minnesota might want Caufield at 8)
    Florida has 13 and 52 (Good value, that late second might not be enough?)
    Arizona has 14 and 45 (Good value, pretty fair trade)
    Montreal has 15, 46, 50 (Good value, pretty fair trade with the first second, second might be a little light)
    Colorado has 16 and 47 (Good value, pretty fair trade)
    Vegas has 17 and 48 (Starting to be a little light on value)
    Ottawa has 19, 32 and 44 (19 and 32 is good value, 19 and 44 is a little light)
    (Edit) – Missed Los Angles 22 and 33 – this would be a little light, but close?

    Is there a trade here that anyone thinks would be more likely than the others? Are my value assessments fair?

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: Risky

    Maybe. I’m sure Holland will do his homework prior to making the pick though.

  60. Rondo says:

    At #8 Boldy is a great fit for the Oilers and so is Podkolzin.

    At#38 Ryan Johnson or Lassi Thomson

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness, the Kalrsson contract is structured with extremely high signing bonuses, including the last few years – meaning, unless the inability to buyout signing bonuses for savings is changed in the new CBA, its essentially a buyout proof contract.

    I’m happy, disappointed the flames haven’t committed to this contract, but happy its with a division rival.

  62. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne: Not really.

    the # 8 pick has a value of 629.

    the #15 pick has a value of 433

    the #44 pick as a value of 196

    So, generally speaking, 8 gets you 15 and 44

    So Ottawas picks at 19 (364) + 32 (264)are the closest matchTotal 628

    SO would anyone give up #8 for 19 and 32, Giving us 19,32, and 38?

    Thats 3 picks in the top 38.

    Youd get someone pretty good at 19 for sure.

    For Ottawa it wouldbe like getting back the first rounder they gave away to Colorado.

    Going by Mckenzies list

    Trading the #8 to Ottawa for 19 and 32, we would end up with

    One of
    Rapheal Lavoie
    Kaliyev
    Tomasino at 19

    AND

    Brett Leason at 32
    and
    Nolan Foote 38

    My rule of thumb is NEVER trade out of the top 10.

    Having said that, Id be VERY happy with this outcome!

  63. Reja says:

    jp: Not the good one.

    It is remarkable how bad the Oilers bottom 6 was though. Those poor callups had no one to help them along.

    If you take the Oilers top 6 to be McDavid, Drasisitl, RNH, Chiasson, Kassian and Gagner (I also removed Caggiula), the remaining Oilers forwards scored per 82 games 4.76G, 9.98A, 14.74PTS. Just so bad.

    Bright side, it shouldn’t be difficult for Holland to make improvements.

    It was so frustrating to watch the bottom 6 then Todd and Hitch playing the piss right out of Leon and Mcdavid it was sad to view.

  64. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jordan: If the top 6 are gone, I take offers to trade down.

    Looking at who holds which picks right now, I don’t see a lot of great options value-wise to trading down.This is what I see as possible:

    Anaheim has 9, 29 and 39 (doubt they would trade with the Oilers as the value change is so low).
    Vancouver has 10 and 40 (great value for the 8, might be too much for Vancouver to pay in a rebuild)
    Philadelphia has 11 and 41 (great value for the 8, Philly is crazy – maybe?)
    Minnesota has 12 and 42 (pretty good value for the 8, Minnesota might want Caufield at 8)
    Florida has 13 and 52 (Good value, that late second might not be enough?)
    Arizona has 14 and 45 (Good value, pretty fair trade)
    Montreal has 15, 46, 50 (Good value, pretty fair trade with the first second, second might be a little light)
    Colorado has 16 and 47 (Good value, pretty fair trade)
    Vegas has 17 and 48 (Starting to be a little light on value)
    Ottawa has 19, 32 and 44 (19 and 32 is good value, 19 and 44 is a little light)
    (Edit) – Missed Los Angles 22 and 33 – this would be a little light, but close?

    Is there a trade here that anyone thinks would be more likely than the others?Are my value assessments fair?

    My initial look has the two closest in value/likelihood would be either Ottawa 19+32 (you have the value exactly right) and Minnesota 12+42 for Oilers 8+100.

    Going by Mckenzies list

    Trading the #8 to Ottawa for 19 and 32, we would end up with

    One of
    Rapheal Lavoie
    or Kaliyev
    or Tomasino at 19

    AND

    Brett Leason at 32
    and
    Nolan Foote 38

    Id be VERY happy with this outcome!

  65. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Not really.

    the # 8 pick has a value of 629.

    the #15 pick has a value of 433

    the #44 pick as a value of 196

    So, generally speaking, 8 gets you 15 and 44

    So Ottawas picks at 19 (364) + 32 (264)are the closest matchTotal 628

    SO would anyone give up #8 for 19 and 32, Giving us 19,32, and 38?

    Thats 3 picks in the top 38.

    Youd get someone pretty good at 19 for sure.

    For Ottawa it would be like getting back the first rounder they gave away to Colorado.

    =====================================

    Minnesota #12 (507) + #42(203) = 710We would have to add in our 4th round pick (#100) valued at 107

    SO #8 and #100 for #12 and #42Any Takers??

    That’s not how it works in the real world. Look at actual trades to see that 1st round picks hold tremendous value, in particular top-10 picks.

  66. Oil2Oilers says:

    Given Cozens looks like he will be gone by #8 I don’t see much of a difference between #8 & #10 in quality. Meaning I would be open to a trade down move with Vancouver revolving around Lucic. Especially if it ups the return from Erikson to Sutter.

    Lucic + Bear + #8 for Brandon Sutter and #10?

  67. Ben says:

    Jordan: If the top 6 are gone, I take offers to trade down.

    This is helpful, thanks.

    Obviously depends how the different staffs have rated the available prospects, but you’d have to think there’ll be a strong option from Holland’s list available 10-12 (particularly if the Broberg talk is accurate–I think it’s decoy).

    But as we saw in JP’s year, there an equal chance that someone they like at 4-6 will be there at 8. So much variance this year, plus teams with serious cap problems.

    I think the Oilers pick at 8, but overall I’m betting this’ll be the most dynamic draft in some time.

  68. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: That’s not how it works in the real world. Look at actual trades to see that 1st round picks hold tremendous value, in particular top-10 picks.

    I agree with you in principle, but I would ammend it by saying that evrery year there is a cluster of players that hold the additional cache/value that you speak of. Some years its top 10 some years top 12. This year I think its top 7.

    Anyway the charts are similar to those used to predict Free Agent Salaries: They are used as an indicator and form a sound basis / starting point for the converstation. IMO.

  69. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Andy Dufresne: Going by Mckenzies list

    Trading the #8 to Ottawa for 19 and 32, we would end up with

    One of
    Rapheal Lavoie
    Kaliyev
    Tomasino at 19

    AND

    Brett Leason at 32
    and
    Nolan Foote 38

    My rule of thumb is NEVER trade out of the top 10.

    Having said that, Id be VERY happy with this outcome!

    +1

  70. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Maybe. I’m sure Holland will do his homework prior to making the pick though.

    If they take him at 8 that has to be mostly on Holland I would think.

  71. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

    I’d probably be looking for more than 32 to drop down to 19 though. At least another decent prospect included.

  72. YKOil says:

    Going by the Bobfather’s list, I trade down.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Going by Mckenzies list

    Trading the #8 to Ottawa for 19 and 32, we would end up with

    One of
    Rapheal Lavoie
    Kaliyev
    Tomasino at 19

    AND

    Brett Leason at 32
    and
    Nolan Foote 38

    Id be VERY happy with this outcome!

    Here are some examples of actual trades that should give you some idea just how huge the gulf is between (say) 8 and 19:

    2018
    25 traded for 29 + 76
    22 traded for 26 + 48

    2017
    26 traded for 29 + 70

    2016
    26 traded for 28 + 87
    18 + 79 for 22 + 36
    11 for 12 + 80

    2015
    29 for 34 + 68
    28 for 33 + 72
    24 for 29 + 61

    2014
    28 for 35 + 57

    2013
    18 for 20 + 58

    2012
    14 for 21 + 42

    2011
    22 for 30 + 39
    24 for 35 + 48

    2010
    30 for 35 + 58

    None of these trades include a top-10 pick, which have several times the value of a 20-30 pick come draft day. If dropping from 22 to 26 gets you a mid 2nd, I can’t imagine how much you’d have to demand to go from 8 to the 20’s. Probably a 2020 1st as well as the 2019 2nd, and likely more.

  74. Jordan says:

    Ben: This is helpful, thanks.

    Obviously depends how the different staffs have rated the available prospects, but you’d have to think there’ll be a strong option from Holland’s list available 10-12 (particularly if the Broberg talk is accurate–I think it’s decoy).

    But as we saw in JP’s year, there an equal chance that someone they like at 4-6 will be there at 8. So much variance this year, plus teams with serious cap problems.

    I think the Oilers pick at 8, but overall I’m betting this’ll be the most dynamic draft in some time.

    I agree about this likely being a dynamic draft.

    In my mind, there are a lot of differences of opinions between player values after the top 4, and there seems to be a huge spread of players with different qualities but who could all be good prospect bets. If there are players that people really want, there will be trades. The question is which scouts have the confidence of their convictions to make the moves.

    I’m just listening to Gregor saying that first round pick trades won’t happen. I’m not sure that’s right, this year, but the precendent from the last few years is certainly that there aren’t a lot of trades made in the 1st round.

    Here’s hoping Holland and co. find value.

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    A smart team would offer sheet Timo Meier. This kid is the real deal. You could offer $8 mill and the Sharks have virtually no way to match. That’s a big salary, but it’s a steal compared to guys like Nylander, Skinner and even Karlsson.

  76. Yeti says:

    Andy Dufresne: Having said that, Id be VERY happy with this outcome!

    So long as the top-6 have gone as per Mackenzie, then yes – I think you’d pull the trigger on that…

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Anyway the charts are similar to those used to predict Free Agent Salaries: They are used as an indicator and form a sound basis / starting point for the converstation. IMO.

    The charts you speak of are not like the salary charts, which uses previous contract data as it’s basis. The draft value charts generally are based on expected games played at each pick, with no modifier in for the level of performance during those games.

  78. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think the math says stay clear of Podkolzin. I don’t think he’s Edmonton’s guy, hoping Broberg isn’t either.

  79. defmn says:

    Interesting note at the end of McKenzie’s prelude to his list.

    “One final note on the rankings: Prospects from Nos. 25 through 50 are, more or less interchangeable. Which is to say every player ranked in the top 50 got at least one vote as a first-rounder.”

  80. Pescador says:

    YKOil:
    Going by the Bobfather’s list, I trade down.

    Unless Cozens falls to 8, then yes trade down,
    I have zero confidence that Krebs will end up being a better player than Lavoie or Kaliyev or even Newhook.
    People underscore the importance of a veteran 3C and how much that would help develop our young prospect wingers
    Puljujarvi, Benson, Yamamoto and McLeod.
    There is only enough cap space for 1 top 6 winger in free agency

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    Am I missing something here? But have the Sharks just completely exposed themselves to some predatory moves?

  82. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Am I missing something here? But have the Sharks just completely exposed themselves to some predatory moves?

    It was inevitable. Not as bad as Tavares at 8 x 13.5, but they must have known it would eventually get here (owner and SAP, right?). Thornton will be gone soon though, right?

  83. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: That’s not how it works in the real world. Look at actual trades to see that 1st round picks hold tremendous value, in particular top-10 picks.

    Agreed. These types of trades rely on the buying team wanting to get their guy, and generally overpaying a bit to do it. If someone wants the #8 good value could be there. With the players available there and after I’d be open the moving down. Maybe a warm body vs pick is the sweetener too.

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    Not advocating this deal but

    Bob Stauffer explains how it might work.

    Rememeber that Bob is re-iterating that “one for sure” or perhaps two of last years starting 6 Dmen will not be here for 2019-20.

    SO in explaining how a Nakita Ziatzev deal “might” make sense, is Zaitsev and an established winger like Andreas Johnsson to the Oilers and an Oilers Defensemen whose AVV is higher than Zaitsev but whose term is shorter goes to Toronto.

    TO ME this clearly signals its Andrej Sekera that Bob is referencing here. So Toronto gets a better RHD than Zaitsev and effectively gets out of the Zaitsev contract 3 years earlier. Oilers get a middle six (top 6?) forward and Zaitzev.

    Bob also mentions one of the possibilities for JP is a trade with Carolina for a prospect like Julian Gauthier who was a 1st round pick (21st overall in 2016) who scored 27g 14a 41pts in 75 games with the Charlotte Checkers last year. Gives us at least some indication of the trade value of JP.

  85. Dustylegnd says:

    JimmyV1965:
    A smart team would offer sheet Timo Meier. This kid is the real deal. You could offer $8 mill and the Sharks have virtually no way to match. That’s a big salary, but it’s a steal compared to guys like Nylander, Skinner and even Karlsson.

    one 1st, one 2nd and one 3rd, the way the Oiler’s don’t draft that seems like a steal…on the other hand we can’t afford him

  86. Dustylegnd says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Not advocating this deal but

    Bob Stauffer explains how it might work.

    Rememeber that Bob is re-iterating that “one for sure” or perhaps two of last years starting 6 Dmen will not be here for 2019-20.

    SO in explaining how a Nakita Ziatzev deal “might” make sense, is Zaitsev and an established winger like Andreas Johnsson to the Oilers and an Oilers Defensemen whose AVV is higher than Zaitsev but whose term is shorter goes to Toronto.

    TO ME this clearly signals its Andrej Sekera that Bob is referencing here. So Toronto gets a better RHD than Zaitsev and effectively gets out of the Zaitsev contract 3 years earlier. Oilers get a middle six (top 6?) forward and Zaitzev.

    Bob also mentions one of the possibilities for JP is a trade with Carolina for a prospect like Julian Gauthier who was a 1st round pick (21st overall in 2016) who scored27g14a41pts in 75 games with the Charlotte Checkers last year.Gives us at least some indication of the trade value of JP.

    JP worth less than a Benson, perfect

  87. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    – How ’bout Russell for Z straight up, or Benning for Z: the latter gives Leafs cap relief, we get the vaunted RHD with offence, but stuck with a long-term.

    – I prefer Benning or Russell, and think those are awful: but with all the clamour of having to get rid of him, that is the kind of logic….

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    We already Russell, why would we want Zaitsev too? Is Stauffer on crack?

  89. Primetime says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Am I missing something here? But have the Sharks just completely exposed themselves to some predatory moves?

    They have for sure. Wouldn’t be surprised if somehow Chicago turns the tables on them from 2010. Remember the Sharks did the same thing to a Capped out Blackhawks team…they offer sheeted Hjalmarsson to a big contract forcing then to match…then waltzed in and signed Niemi who the Hawks could no longer afford.
    Rumors are Hawks interested in Pavelski…would they do the same? Offer sheet a younger player then swoop in on Little Joe?

  90. Andy Dufresne says:

    Professor Q: It was inevitable. Not as bad as Tavares at 8 x 13.5, but they must have known it would eventually get here (owner and SAP, right?). Thornton will be gone soon though, right?

    I think Thorton loves SJ and wants to win a cup there, so mcuh so that he will sign 1 yr x $3m contracts until it happens.

  91. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM:
    We already Russell,why would we want Zaitsev too? Is Stauffer on crack?

    TO be clear Stauffer wasnt advocating for this trade, just trying to explain how some insiders (Mirtle, Dreger) could possibly have Zaitsev attached to the Oilers. Bob personally doesnt see a fit.

  92. Old Timer says:

    Time and again we hear that the single most important player on the ice is the goalie. Look at the impact that Carey Price, Tukka Rask and Binnington can have on their respective teams.

    Given that Spencer Knight is ranked 12th and is a potential star netminder, would it be a wise move for the Oilers to either draft him at #8 or trade for a second first round pick in order to get him. We have repeatedly commented on the need to strengthen the position. Why not do it through the draft.

    Thoughts please.

  93. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: 2012
    14 for 21 + 42

    If we look at the 2012 example.

    14 (456) for 21 (336) + 42 (203) thats 456 vs 539 so reasonably close. The team trading up pays a small premium (83 differential is a middle to late 5th round pick).

    But I appreciate your work and all the examples. They show clearly that you pay a premium to trade up and that top 10 picks rarely get traded.

    But this only increases the logic that the Oilers might be wise to trade down.

    In the Ottawa scenario, WITHOUT THE PREMIUM, the Oilers end up with AT LEAST:

    Trading the #8 to Ottawa for 19 and 32, we would end up with

    One of
    Rapheal Lavoie
    Kaliyev
    Tomasino at 19

    AND

    Brett Leason at 32
    and
    Nolan Foote 38

    AND WITH THE PREMIUM, something slightly better.

  94. godot10 says:

    GBandQ: So do you, A)try to move up a spot to ensure you can grab Zegras,
    B) take Caufield, C) go off off Bob’s list a bit and take Broberg, or D) stand pat and take Podkolzin?

    Krebs is a fine pick if Cozens is not there.

  95. vinotintazo says:

    godot10: Krebs is a fine pick if Cozens is not there.

    No concern with the aquiiles inj?

  96. godot10 says:

    GBandQ:
    Reja,

    i think i want Caufield

    This is NOT the Debrincat you are looking for.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: If we look at the 2012 example.

    14 (456) for 21 (336) + 42 (203)thats 456 vs 539 so reasonably close. The team trading up pays a small premium (83 differential is a middle to late 5th round pick).

    But I appreciate your work and all the examples. They show clearly that you pay a premium to trade up and that top 10 picks rarely get traded.

    But this only increases the logic that the Oilers might be wise to trade down.

    In the Ottawa scenario, WITHOUT THE PREMIUM, the Oilers end up with AT LEAST:

    Trading the #8 to Ottawa for 19 and 32, we would end up with

    One of
    Rapheal Lavoie
    Kaliyev
    Tomasino at 19

    AND

    Brett Leason at 32
    and
    Nolan Foote 38

    AND WITH THE PREMIUM, something slightly better.

    The closest comparison is 2008: 7 for 9 + 40. That’s a high 2nd to move up just 2 spots, I imagine the premium to move up from ~20 would include a 2020 1st, 2019 2nd and maybe more.

  98. Andy Dufresne says:

    Dustylegnd: JP worth less than a Benson, perfect

    Thankfully the timing of a new GM and new Coach make the most likely scenario that JP resigns here.

  99. Psyche says:

    vinotintazo,

    Krebs will be fine for the WHL season. He’s young and will recover better than he was prior to the injury. I expect this will actually help with his physical conditioning preparation.

    Prior to the injury I don’t believe many folks predicted him to be in the NHL next season. So, I don’t see the injury impacting his development negatively. If NHL teams are ill-informed and pass over him, one smart contending team will snatch him up and be better for it.

  100. LadiesloveSmid says:

    JP has no leverage. If they trade him for a shittier version of himself, they’re just shooting themselves in the foot. JP was a better AHLer at 18 than Gauthier at 21.

    Let JP throw a fit, he can go to Europe or suck it up. Up to EDM to prove they’ll play him in a feature spot, where he can make an impact.

  101. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I hope Sekera is here in October to babysit Bouchard/Persson

  102. godot10 says:

    YKOil:
    Going by the Bobfather’s list, I trade down.

    Teams are going to have different preferences, so this is a bad draft to trade out of the 2nd tier, which is what many of you want to do. One is likely to trade oneself out of one’s player of choice. #4-#10 are pretty close.

  103. godot10 says:

    Old Timer:
    Time and again we hear that the single most important player on the ice is the goalie. Look at the impact that Carey Price, Tukka Rask and Binnington can have on their respective teams.

    Given that Spencer Knight is ranked 12th and is a potential star netminder, would it be a wise move for the Oilers to either draft him at #8 or tradefor a second first round pick in order to get him. We have repeatedly commented on the need to strengthen the position. Why not do it through the draft.

    Thoughts please.

    Goalies should be drafted in the top 5 or in the 3rd round, and not inbetween.

  104. godot10 says:

    vinotintazo: No concern with the aquiiles inj?

    I sure NHL teams that are interested will get a thorough medical update this week from the Krebs camp.

  105. Andy Dufresne says:

    Psyche:
    vinotintazo,

    Krebs will be fine for the WHL season. He’s young and will recover better than he was prior to the injury. I expect this will actually help with his physical conditioning preparation.

    Prior to the injury I don’t believe many folks predicted him to be in the NHL next season. So, I don’t see the injury impacting his development negatively. If NHL teams are ill-informed and pass over him, one smart contending team will snatch him up and be better for it.

    Cole Caufield:

    A game-breaking goal scorer that, despite his diminutive frame, thrives under pressure and is difficult to contain. He’s a silky smooth skater that traverses all three zones with jump and jam. Defensively, he’s uncomfortable having the puck in his own end for long and he’ll make the extra effort to pressure around the blue line and take away cross-ice options. Upon procuring puck possession, he’ll be the first to explode up ice in-transition. The hallmark of his game is his exceptional goal-scoring ability. He has a shot that absolutely leaps off his stick with pinpoint accuracy when he lets loose and a low centre of gravity that facilitates fast and flashy puckhandling at pace. He affords his linemates options by taking advantage of any allotted attention he garners, generating time and space by drawing guys in; he’s perpetually hard to play against. All-in-all, Cole Caufield is an electrifying goal-scoring machine that makes some of the most otherworldly plays look like child’s play. [EP 2019]

    Is this guy the next Barzal or even Johnny Gaudreau ?

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Teams are going to have different preferences, so this is a bad draft to trade out of the 2nd tier, which is what many of you want to do.One is likely to trade oneself out of one’s player of choice.#4-#10 are pretty close.

    To be fair, Holland won’t make any move to trade down until the first seven picks have already been selected and he knows exactly what’s available, so I don’t think we have to worry.

  107. Reja says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Given Cozens looks like he will be gone by #8 I don’t see much of a difference between #8 & #10 in quality. Meaning I would be open to a trade down move with Vancouver revolving around Lucic. Especially if it ups the return from Erikson to Sutter.

    Lucic + Bear + #8 for Brandon Sutter and #10?

    That would be a Sather like trade.

  108. blainer says:

    I would absolutely draft Caufield if he is available. That kid can score. Put him in the Ovie spot and he might get us 50 every year IMO. He seems to me to be the best goal scorer in this draft.

    I know he is small and that makes it risky but he has a great shot and a quick release and just knows where to be on the ice to score goals.. well at least it looks that way to me from watching a lot of video on him.

    He is the player I would take if Couzens is gone. I also like Dach and Zegras but expect the order to fall the way Bob has them listed unless someone takes Podkolzin early. I think this is an excellent top10 this year and will be happy with whoever we draft.. even if it’s a D. I’m taking Caufield over Podkolzin only because of the Russian thing.

  109. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Andy Dufresne: Gotta love those top 6.

    We need two out of order picks to land one of the top 6.

    So assuming Mackenzies top 6 are gone, who does anyone want next?

    Podkolzin is a gift … just smile and say, “Thank You”.

  110. John Chambers says:

    Is Nikita Zaitsev really that negative a value contract?

    He plays roughly 20 mins / night
    He’s a RHD – age 27 (28 in October)

    If we theoretically traded Sekera & Khaira (or a 2nd …) for Zaitsev and Kapanen (signed for $3.5M x 3), this could be a big win for us.

    We’d add a top-6 winger and a #4 defenseman, costing us a bottom-6 and bottom-pair guy, all for about $1M more.

    My point on Zaitsev is this: he can play – 81 games last year at 20 mins / night. He’s young. He has 223 NHL games. $4.5M for a 4/5 guy (at worst) in the prime of his career is market-rate. If you can gain a cost-controlled top-6 player, delete an expensive contract (love Rej), and have LD-RD on your top 2 pairs (enabling you to trade Russell’s contract), is that not a win for the franchise?

  111. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Not advocating this deal but

    Bob Stauffer explains how it might work.

    Rememeber that Bob is re-iterating that “one for sure” or perhaps two of last years starting 6 Dmen will not be here for 2019-20.

    SO in explaining how a Nakita Ziatzev deal “might” make sense, is Zaitsev and an established winger like Andreas Johnsson to the Oilers and an Oilers Defensemen whose AVV is higher than Zaitsev but whose term is shorter goes to Toronto.

    TO ME this clearly signals its Andrej Sekera that Bob is referencing here. So Toronto gets a better RHD than Zaitsev and effectively gets out of the Zaitsev contract 3 years earlier. Oilers get a middle six (top 6?) forward and Zaitzev.

    Pretty clear it would have to be Sekera based on the salary.

    That’s not a terrible trade IMO. Zaitsev gets a lot of grief, but he’s not such a bad defenseman. Not a stop gap obviously, but he’s fine as a 2RD I think. He’s been “2nd pair” on the Leafs but has actually played at minimum 36% TOI vs. elites every year with 41-45% DZ starts (none of the Oilers defenders has faced 36% elites in any of the past 3 yrs).

    And if you believe he’s a 2RD $4.5M is totally reasonable. He’ll still be 32 when the deal ends.

    Johnsson is 24 and played lots with Matthews, but he scored with everyone else as well. P/60 was actually 2.49 overall, wow (866 min).

    With:
    Matthews (422) 2.42
    Kapanen (251) 2.39
    Nylander (239) 2.51
    Brown (199) 1.81
    Lindholm (192) 1.87
    Tavares (121) 3.96
    Marner (109) 3.30
    Kadri (76) 2.38
    Gauthier (67) 2.68

    I think I’d make that trade based on what I know (there is lots I don’t know though).

  112. jp says:

    John Chambers:
    Is Nikita Zaitsev really that negative a value contract?

    He plays roughly 20 mins / night
    He’s a RHD – age 27 (28 in October)

    If we theoretically traded Sekera & Khaira (or a 2nd …) for Zaitsev and Kapanen (signed for $3.5M x 3), this could be a big win for us.

    We’d add a top-6 winger and a #4 defenseman, costing us a bottom-6 and bottom-pair guy, all for about $1M more.

    My point on Zaitsev is this: he can play – 81 games last year at 20 mins / night. He’s young. He has 223 NHL games. $4.5M for a 4/5 guy (at worst) in the prime of his career is market-rate. If you can gain a cost-controlled top-6 player, delete an expensive contract (love Rej), and have LD-RD on your top 2 pairs (enabling you to trade Russell’s contract), is that not a win for the franchise?

    Haha, just a LITTLE too slow. But +1.

  113. Ice Sage says:

    So the Bobfather has spoken: No USNDT zooming!

  114. Oil2Oilers says:

    Zaitsev wants out of a City where hockey is the main obsession I don’t think it is to come to one where it is the only obsession.

  115. LadiesloveSmid says:

    They’ll be out from Sekera & Russell in 2 years. Zaitsev is signed for 5. I’m not sure I’d take him over Russell, contracts aside.

    Maybe if there’s a market for him next summer to dump.

  116. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Then Russell is the guy that helps bring Bouchard along, that pair would be a sieve next year.

  117. Lowetide says:

    Ice Sage:
    So the Bobfather has spoken:No USNDT zooming!

    That’s how I read it, too. The industry was impressed but didn’t change their lists. We’ll find out Friday.

  118. John Chambers says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Zaitsev wants out of a City where hockey is the main obsession I don’t think it is to come to one where it is the only obsession.

    Does he read English newspapers?

  119. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: SO #8 and #100 for #12 and #42 Any Takers??

    SO #8 and #100 for #12 and #42 Any Takers?? I would strongly consider this … 8 – 12 isn’t too big a drop … a #42 could turn into a player …

    I would not want to drop out of the Top 15 in a trade down scenario

  120. Jordan says:

    Andy Dufresne: Cole Caufield:

    A game-breaking goal scorer that, despite his diminutive frame, thrives under pressure and is difficult to contain. He’s a silky smooth skater that traverses all three zones with jump and jam. Defensively, he’s uncomfortable having the puck in his own end for long and he’ll make the extra effort to pressure around the blue line and take away cross-ice options. Upon procuring puck possession, he’ll be the first to explode up ice in-transition. The hallmark of his game is his exceptional goal-scoring ability. He has a shot that absolutely leaps off his stick with pinpoint accuracy when he lets loose and a low centre of gravity that facilitates fast and flashy puckhandling at pace. He affords his linemates options by taking advantage of any allotted attention he garners, generating time and space by drawing guys in; he’s perpetually hard to play against. All-in-all, Cole Caufield is an electrifying goal-scoring machine that makes some of the most otherworldly plays look like child’s play. [EP 2019]

    Is this guy the next Barzal or even Johnny Gaudreau ?

    It’s really hard to know because of how much better the the USNTDP was than their competition.

    He could be the next Barzal or Johnny Hockey. He could also be the next Angelo Esposito, Gilbert Brule or Rob Schremp.

    I am risk-averse when it comes to drafting players when there’s a big question-mark like there was this year for the USHL. I would avoid picking those players unless he fell to a range where I felt he would be comparable in another draft. That’s part of why I would be picking Kakko ahead of hughes this year.

    jtblack: SO #8 and #100 for #12 and #42 Any Takers?? I would strongly consider this …8 – 12 isn’t too big a drop …a #42 could turn into a player …

    I would not want to drop out of the Top 15 in a trade down scenario

    After reviewing and thinking about the value associated with top 10 picks, I think I’d have to say that its 8 for 12 and 42 or no deal. No other picks added from the Oilers if that trade’s going to happen for them to move into the top 10.

    If they don’t like that trade, then I’d offer 8 and Lucic for 12, 42 and Zucker.

  121. jp says:

    JimmyV1965:
    A smart team would offer sheet Timo Meier. This kid is the real deal. You could offer $8 mill and the Sharks have virtually no way to match. That’s a big salary, but it’s a steal compared to guys like Nylander, Skinner and even Karlsson.

    Chiarelli didn’t do much right, but he does deserve serious credit for the Draisaitl deal.

    82-50-55-105. #2 in goals, #4 in points.

    He’s tied for the #21 cap hit right now, plummeting further down the list by the day. And signed for 6 more prime years. Very nice.

  122. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965:
    A smart team would offer sheet Timo Meier. This kid is the real deal. You could offer $8 mill and the Sharks have virtually no way to match. That’s a big salary, but it’s a steal compared to guys like Nylander, Skinner and even Karlsson.

    A smart team offersheets:

    – Meier at $6.34m for 4 years (compensation = 1st and 3rd round picks)
    – Labanc at $3.75m+ for 5 years (compensation = 2nd round pick)

    If Sharks want to keep them both they lose Pavelski straight up, probably have to lose Thornton, and if they keep Thornton they have to trade Braun or Dillon just to pay the replacement players they need.

    Meier would either be an UFA or an RFA with arbitration rights – and able to force a one-year deal – at the end of that deal.

    A pretty crippling hit all said and done. I expect Braun and/or Dillon to be traded shortly.

  123. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne: I think Thorton loves SJ and wants to win a cup there, so mcuh so that he will sign 1 yr x $3m contracts until it happens.

    The Sharks can’t really even afford that though. Might need to be 1 X $1M to work.

  124. jp says:

    godot10: Goalies should be drafted in the top 5 or in the 3rd round, and not inbetween.

    What on earth is the basis for this statement?

  125. YKOil says:

    ArmchairGM: To be fair, Holland won’t make any move to trade down until the first seven picks have already been selected and he knows exactly what’s available, so I don’t think we have to worry.

    No question, if here is a trade/trade-down in place it doesn’t happen at all if Cozens or Dach is available at 8.

  126. YKOil says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    They’ll be out from Sekera & Russell in 2 years. Zaitsev is signed for 5. I’m not sure I’d take him over Russell, contracts aside.

    Maybe if there’s a market for him next summer to dump.

    At $4.5m /year Zaitsev has a hard contract to move.

    Okay with the idea of Sekera/Khaira for Zaitsev/Kapanen or Johnsson but would prefer it with a salary retention shake-out.

    i.e.

    Sekera or Russell ($1 million retained) and Khaira
    FOR
    Zaitsev ($1 million retained) and one of Kapanen/Johnsson

    In this way Zaitsev only runs us $3.5m a year for the last 3 years of the deal. Much easier to trade down the road if it doesn’t work out.

  127. godot10 says:

    John Chambers: Does he read English newspapers?

    Does Zaitsev read Russian ones and the interviews with Belov and Yakupov?

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Not advocating this deal but

    Bob Stauffer explains how it might work.

    Rememeber that Bob is re-iterating that “one for sure” or perhaps two of last years starting 6 Dmen will not be here for 2019-20.

    SO in explaining how a Nakita Ziatzev deal “might” make sense, is Zaitsev and an established winger like Andreas Johnsson to the Oilers and an Oilers Defensemen whose AVV is higher than Zaitsev but whose term is shorter goes to Toronto.

    TO ME this clearly signals its Andrej Sekera that Bob is referencing here. So Toronto gets a better RHD than Zaitsev and effectively gets out of the Zaitsev contract 3 years earlier. Oilers get a middle six (top 6?) forward and Zaitzev.

    Bob also mentions one of the possibilities for JP is a trade with Carolina for a prospect like Julian Gauthier who was a 1st round pick (21st overall in 2016) who scored27g14a41pts in 75 games with the Charlotte Checkers last year.Gives us at least some indication of the trade value of JP.

    Thankfully I am seeing Bob’s thoughts come to fruition less and less – this organization should have zero interest in taking on a bloated contract with term where the very best scenario, which is unlikely, is that the player may provide value for it for part of it. This team needs contracts where the player could/should outperform the cap hit, not the other way around.

    That term for that player is too egregious, even with the forward sweetener.

    That is an example of “mortgaging the future” for immediate cap space which I believe Holland won’t do (as per his verbal).

  129. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Krebs is a fine pick if Cozens is not there.

    Why not take kaliyev. Has size and is a natural goal scorer. With the new management team Russian players will get a fair shake. He would fit nice with Samorukov and Maksimov moving forward. Draft for skill. The question with Kaliyev is the Russian factor as near as I can tell. He checks all the other boxes. LT has him at four. Moving back has risks associated as well. You could end up hero or goat.
    Krebs injury may be a factor given his skill set is based on his skating. Their is a very small separation from NHL quality to elite in that department. Unless there are some larger areas of concern Kaliyev would be my choice.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: one 1st, one 2nd and one 3rd, the way the Oiler’s don’t draft that seems like a steal…on the other hand we can’t afford him

    Yes, fun for discussion, but the conversations around the Oilers taking advantage of teams in cap hell don’t run true to me as the Oilers are one of those teams – need “needing” to divest current players in order to fill out a roster but not able to add material cap without divesting.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: JP worth less than a Benson, perfect

    Hence why there should be no real though of moving him (unless his value proves to be more).

    He signs a reasonable deal the team will provide him the right environment (finally) to succeed (assuming he does his part with hard work) or, if he refuses, well, sit Jesse – you don’t want to head back to Europe so sign and commit to working hard or head back home.

  132. defmn says:

    I have no idea if Caufield is the real deal or not but I am pretty certain that if the Oilers pick him they are writing off the Yamamoto selection from two years ago.

    I don’t doubt for a moment that a team can thrive with one small forward in their top six. I am equally certain that it isn’t possible to have two.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Andy Dufresne,

    – How ’bout Russell for Z straight up, or Benning for Z: the latter gives Leafs cap relief, we get the vaunted RHD with offence, but stuck with a long-term.

    Awful, just awful – that term is egregious for this team.

  134. godot10 says:

    jp: What on earth is the basis for this statement?

    Either you are Grant Fuhr or Carey Price, and you should be drafted amongst the best players in your class, or goaltenders are voodoo, and you wait for them to drop in the draft till the 3rd round, and you develop them.

    Generational goaltenders don’t get rated in the teens.

    i.e. you seriously scout goaltenders every year, and every year you wait for the special one to slide into the 3rd round, and then you pounce.

  135. pts2pndr says:

    blainer:
    I would absolutely draft Caufield if he is available. That kid can score. Put him in the Ovie spot and he might get us 50 every year IMO. Heseems to me to be the best goal scorer in this draft.

    I know he is small and that makes it risky but he has a great shot and a quick release and just knows where to be on the ice to score goals..well at least it looks that way to me from watching a lot of video on him.

    He is the player I would take if Couzens is gone. I also like Dach and Zegras but expect the order to fall the way Bob has them listed unless someone takes Podkolzin early. I think this is an excellent top10 this year and will be happy with whoever we draft.. even if it’s a D. I’m taking Caufield over Podkolzin only because of the Russian thing.

    I can see where he might easily be overlooked.😂

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: I think Thorton loves SJ and wants to win a cup there, so mcuh so that he will sign 1 yr x $3m contracts until it happens.

    Given how much Meier and Pavelski will require, I’m not sure how they even afford that (even taking in to account Nyquist and Donskoi moving on).

    I think the’ll need to move Braun.

  137. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I don’t like drafting goalies early but I’d say the best goalie in the league last year was drafted early 2nd round by Anaheim.

    Vasilevskiy is no slouch either.

    Oilers starter was taken 31st! Same with Markstrom. Dubnyk mid-1st. Bernier mid-1st.

  138. McSorley33 says:

    Mackenzie ranks Broberg at 15…..

    Hopefully, this ends the Oilers and Broberg talk….

  139. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: Why not take kaliyev. Has size and is a natural goal scorer. With the new management team Russian players will get a fair shake. He would fit nice with Samorukov and Maksimov moving forward. Draft for skill. The question with Kaliyev is the Russian factor as near as I can tell. He checks all the other boxes. LT has him at four. Moving back has risks associated as well. You could end up hero or goat.
    Krebs injury may be a factor given his skill set is based on his skating. Their is a very small separation from NHL quality to elite in that department. Unless there are some larger areas of concern Kaliyev would be my choice.

    If one keeps on hiring round peg coaches, stop drafting square pegs.

    “Make one exception and next thing you know you have a team full of exceptions.” Bill Parcells.

  140. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    defmn:
    I have no idea if Caufield is the real deal or not but I am pretty certain that if the Oilers pick him they are writing off the Yamamoto selection from two years ago.

    I don’t doubt for a moment that a team can thrive with one small forward in their top six. I am equally certain that it isn’t possible to have two.

    My feelings exactly.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    JP has no leverage. If they trade him for a shittier version of himself, they’re just shooting themselves in the foot. JP was a better AHLer at 18 than Gauthier at 21.

    Let JP throw a fit, he can go to Europe or suck it up. Up to EDM to prove they’ll play him in a feature spot, where he can make an impact.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I hope Sekera is here in October to babysit Bouchard/Persson

    Agree and agree.

    As per my recent post – with his likely low trade value, if JP is playing in the NHL come October, like he wants, it needs to be as an Oilers.

    There is, of course, some risk of decline in Sekera’s game since the 2016 playoffs but I think we may forget just how good he was (is) and how improtant he is to the defensive group and the team a whole. Even with some decline, I anticipate his return, healhty, on a nightly basis is going to have a material positive impact. His trade value right now does not come close how valuable he likely is to the team.

    That is not the place we go to find cap space – trading legit good NHL d-men for little value in the name of cap space is not a good idea.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:
    I would absolutely draft Caufield if he is available. That kid can score. Put him in the Ovie spot and he might get us 50 every year IMO. Heseems to me to be the best goal scorer in this draft.

    I know he is small and that makes it risky but he has a great shot and a quick release and just knows where to be on the ice to score goals..well at least it looks that way to me from watching a lot of video on him.

    I’m not concerned about his size but I am a bit concerned that, from accounts, he is mostly just that shot and the rest of his game isn’t anything to write home about.

    About, I am open to being corrected on the player’s skill-set.

  143. McSorley33 says:

    blainer,

    I would absolutely draft Caufield if he is available. That kid can score. Put him in the Ovie spot and he might get us 50 every year IMO. He seems to me to be the best goal scorer in this draft.
    ******************************************************************************************
    Same.

    Reading numerous comments about might have the best release of all the prospects.

    I can think of a few C’s that could get him the puck.

    I am in the Caufield / Krebs camp.

    10 foot pole between me and the Podkolzin kid.

  144. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    McSorley33:

    I am in the Caufield / Krebs camp.

    10 foot pole between me and the Podkolzin kid.

    I am exactly the opposite. Krebs would be ok for me, basically getting close to value at that spot. No to Caufield, we drafted our vertically challenged guy two years ago. We do not need a second one (or even the first). Podkolzin is a top three talent in this draft. If he is there at #8, you run to announce the pick. I expect Holland to be able to deal with the Russian factor, that’s his job.

  145. RonnieB says:

    pts2pndr: Why not take kaliyev. Has size and is a natural goal scorer. With the new management team Russian players will get a fair shake. He would fit nice with Samorukov and Maksimov moving forward. Draft for skill. The question with Kaliyev is the Russian factor as near as I can tell. He checks all the other boxes. LT has him at four. Moving back has risks associated as well. You could end up hero or goat.
    Krebs injury may be a factor given his skill set is based on his skating. Their is a very small separation from NHL quality to elite in that department. Unless there are some larger areas of concern Kaliyev would be my choice.

    Kalilev is American…born in Staten Island.

  146. JOFA says:

    GBandQ:
    Reja,

    i think i want Caufield

    I know I want Caufield. If he’s there at 8 it would be a huge mistake to not select him. He’ll score 30-40 in his rookie season. Book it😉

  147. defmn says:

    Not sure if this has been posted already. An interview with Nygard. Mostly fluff about why he chose Edmonton rather than Calgary.

    https://www.eprinkside.com/2019/6/17/joakim-nygard-edmonton-oilers

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    https://www.eprinkside.com/2019/6/17/joakim-nygard-edmonton-oilers

    Nice little I review with Nygard.

    Flames pushed hard but he likes the opportunity better in Edmonton.

    Knows he’s not a lock for the team, that it’s going to take a lot of hard work and he could be in the AHL.

  149. Eh Team says:

    Oil2Oilers: Lucic + Bear + #8 for Brandon Sutter and #10?

    This would be a great deal if you took Sutter out of it.

    Lucic + Bear + 8 for 10.

  150. godot10 says:

    JOFA: I know I want Caufield. If he’s there at 8 it would be a huge mistake to not select him. He’ll score 30-40 in his rookie season. Book it

    Zoom, Zoom…

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=196151

  151. jp says:

    godot10: Either you are Grant Fuhr or Carey Price, and you should be drafted amongst the best players in your class, or goaltenders are voodoo, and you wait for them to drop in the draft till the 3rd round, and you develop them.

    Generational goaltenders don’t get rated in the teens.

    i.e. you seriously scout goaltenders every year, and every year you wait for the special one to slide into the 3rd round, and then you pounce.

    What if you’re Rick DiPietro?

    There’s some logic there, but I’m not sure it’s correct.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: A smart team offersheets:

    – Meier at $6.34m for 4 years (compensation = 1st and 3rd round picks)
    – Labanc at $3.75m+ for 5 years (compensation = 2nd round pick)

    If Sharks want to keep them both they lose Pavelski straight up, probably have to lose Thornton, and if they keep Thornton they have to trade Braun or Dillon just to pay the replacement players they need.

    Meier would either be an UFA or an RFA with arbitration rights – and able to force a one-year deal – at the end of that deal.

    A pretty crippling hit all said and done.I expect Braun and/or Dillon to be traded shortly.

    I don’t think Meier signs for that AAV.

    I agree, Braun is likely to be moved.

    Not a bad 2RD stop gap for one year if they were able to move on from Russell clean – Acquisition Cost would be low I assume.

  153. jp says:

    RonnieB: Kalilev is American…born in Staten Island.

    Born in Uzbekistan, but yes, grew up in the US and is American.

    I wonder if they know the Gambardella’s? 🙂

  154. RonnieB says:

    jp: Born in Uzbekistan, but yes, grew up in the US and is American.

    I wonder if they know the Gambardella’s?

    Hmmm…Elite Prospects says UZB but Hockey DB says Staten Island.

  155. McSorley33 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    I am exactly the opposite. Krebs would be ok for me, basically getting close to value at that spot. No to Caufield, we drafted our vertically challenged guy two years ago. We do not need a second one (or even the first). Podkolzin is a top three talent in this draft. If he is there at #8, you run to announce the pick. I expect Holland to be able to deal with the Russian factor, that’s his job.
    ***************************************************************************************************************
    Well, that is the rub – the Russian factor.

    if there is 1 organization in the NHL that cannot afford to gamble with that factor it is our Edmonton Oilers.

    I hear you on Holland maybe being capable of that challenge.

    I am very curious to see what Holland does, either way.

  156. RonnieB says:

    McSorley33:
    Mackenzie ranks Broberg at 15…..

    Hopefully, this ends the Oilers and Broberg talk….

    Agreed. Broberg is even listed (at #16 actually) behind Soderstrom at 14 and Seider at 15.

  157. Ray says:

    So in the theoretical Zaitsev trade, Sekera goes the other way.

    Would think Dubas then buys him out no?

    Sekera has $9M left owing to him, so a buyout pays him $6M. He would then be free to sign back here for $1.5M x 2 years and be “made whole”. Similar to Orpik.

    Might be enough for him to waive?

    Sekeras new cap hit plus Zaitsev would be only $500k more than Sekeras current deal is. The oilers almost add a free 2RD/3RD.

    Toronto would save $2M on the cap for the next two years and the $3M for years 3 & 4. Is that the best they can get to move Zaitsev?

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Oiler Dmen and Holland

    In a Holland interview with Stauffer (might have been Gregor but I think it’s Stauffer) Holland was effusive with his praise for “being an excellent pro who can teach the young Dmen how to be a pro” (paraphrased), so I don’t think he’s going anywhere,

    When Stauffer says “one Dman for sure is out the door” my guess is Benning as they don’t see him as more than 2nd pair due to slow feet and want to free up 3RD for a younger pro, probably Jones who played mostly on his right in the AHL.

    That leaves Russell.

    NHL teams like him ore than the corsiatti and Oiler fans.

    Holland has stated that EDM “has a NHL Dcorps that just needs health” (paraphrased) . I would be near certain he includes Russell in the top 4 when he states that.

    They Dman market has tightened up and Russell has value.

    I only see him moving (assuming Benning is already gone) if a RHD is coming back or in a separate transaction.

    EDM opening night Dcorps with probably be:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sekera-Jones

    Not sure of the 7D but probably Manning.

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Lost bets to Pouzar and Ryan on Karlsson.

    Bah!!

    Pouzar’s charity of choice is already paid.

    Ryan, please remind me which charity (if any) gets the $$

    Ryan is paid as well.

    Both gentlemen picked fine charities to receive the bounty of their acumen. (Read: luck)

  160. Munny says:

    LT said,,,

    Once he hit television, McKenzie established his consensus list that is now the industry’s bible.

    It’s not a consensus list by math or even by anecdote.

    In his article today, Bob goes to great pains to explain how there isn’t even consensus at #1 overall:

    https://www.tsn.ca/hughes-edges-kakko-in-tsn-s-final-draft-rankings-1.1323883

    I think we do him a great dishonour by misrepresenting his process and its results.

  161. Munny says:

    Oil2Oilers: Fuck you TSN your website makes Sportsnet NHL coverage look competent.

    It is gordawful. Just horrible. I go there as little as possible, but make an exception for the BobList.

  162. jp says:

    RonnieB,

    HockeyDB is wrong it seems. Moved to the US at 11 months or 2 yrs depending on the article I checked.

  163. Oil2Oilers says:

    Senators have confirmed they are not resigning Paajavi. I would be happy for the Oilers to resign him as a fast bottom 6 winger and PK specialist.

    Another Oilers development failure, he would of been outstanding as a defender had they had the courage to try him there.

  164. defmn says:

    Compilation chart by Staples of 15 guesses at where players will go in the draft. Everybody from Pronman to Lowetide to McKenzie sorted and averaged.

    It shows a grouping from 1 to 4 and another from 5 to 11.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TCphaQyEDGqokkIecR2cKccpv8nmCdiWTjZdKIyWLBg/edit#gid=0

  165. v4ance says:

    New York Rangers @NYRangers

    OFFICIAL: #NYR have acquired defenseman Jacob Trouba from the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for Neal Pionk and the 20th overall pick in the 2019 #NHLDraft (originally from WPG).

    Pierre LeBrun @PierreVLeBrun

    Trouba gets dealt without an extension in place but the Rangers will want to take care of that as soon as possible, no question

  166. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Trouba traded to Rangers as per Twitter

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa, Trouba to the Rangers for Pionk and the 20th….

    That’s not a great return for the the Jets, in my opinion. They couldn’t take back cap space but still. Would have insisted on Fox or a higher ceiling prospect/youngster.

    Will be very interested to see what Trouba signs for as it will effect Nurse’s next contract.

  168. blainer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not concerned about his size but I am a bit concerned that, from accounts, he is mostly just that shot and the rest of his game isn’t anything to write home about.

    About, I am open to being corrected on the player’s skill-set.

    From watching the video’s he sure looks like he can skate too. I’m no scout but I wouldn’t hesitate to draft this kid.

    I was watching an interview with him as well ..can’t remember where it was but he surprised me a bit with his upper body. He is pretty thick for a short guy. Would not surprise me to see his playing weight to come in around 185 plus pounds which for his height would be very solid.

    IMO he does not have Yammer type of body. My guess is he won’t get as injured and will not get knocked off the puck as much as a lot of us think.. but again it’s just a feeling..

    Man o man ..that shot on the PP would have Connor very happy if it translates to the big league.

    The more I am looking into this player the more I hope we get him. While I would much rather Couzens I will not be disappointed if we get Caufield .. these drafts are always hard to figure out.. I do know one thing .. no matter the circumstances it’s hard not to consider a player who just scored 72 goals in one season.. JMO

  169. Gerta Rauss says:

    I thought Trouba would have returned more that #20 and a prospect but what do I know

    *edit-I guess there is no extension in place so NYR has taken some risk here

  170. Glovjuice says:

    jp: Pretty clear it would have to be Sekera based on the salary.

    That’s not a terrible trade IMO. Zaitsev gets a lot of grief, but he’s not such a bad defenseman. Not a stop gap obviously, but he’s fine as a 2RD I think. He’s been “2nd pair” on the Leafs but has actually played at minimum 36% TOI vs. elites every year with 41-45% DZ starts (none of the Oilers defenders has faced 36% elites in any of the past 3 yrs).

    And if you believe he’s a 2RD $4.5M is totally reasonable. He’ll still be 32 when the deal ends.

    Johnsson is 24 and played lots with Matthews, but he scored with everyone else as well. P/60 was actually 2.49 overall, wow (866 min).

    With:
    Matthews (422) 2.42
    Kapanen (251) 2.39
    Nylander (239) 2.51
    Brown (199) 1.81
    Lindholm (192) 1.87
    Tavares (121) 3.96
    Marner (109) 3.30
    Kadri (76) 2.38
    Gauthier (67) 2.68

    I think I’d make that trade based on what I know (there is lots I don’t know though).

    Can Zaitsev skate? That’s important on our current D.

  171. v4ance says:

    PuckPedia @PuckPedia

    The #GoJetsGo acquired 23 y/o RD Neal Pionk & their original ’19 1st Round Pick (20th – traded in Hayes deal) from #NYR for 25 y/o RD Jacob Trouba

    Trouba – RFA – finished 1 yr $5.5M Deal – UFA in 1 yr
    Pionk – RFA – finished 2 yr $925K Deal – UFA in 4 yrs

    So the end result is
    The Jets rented Hayes for a few months, got Pionk and probably ~$4 mil of cap room
    The Rangers got Trouba and added a cap hit of around $7 mil.

    EDIT:
    Considering NYR signed Pionk as an undrafted college UFA, that’s a nice upgrade on assets…

    Jets were in cap stress and needed to dollars freed up. Now they can take a run at re-signing Myers before he goes UFA.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Oiler Dmen and Holland

    In a Holland interview with Stauffer (might have been Gregor but I think it’s Stauffer) Holland was effusive with his praise for “being an excellent pro who can teach the young Dmen how to be a pro” (paraphrased), so I don’t think he’s going anywhere,

    When Stauffer says “one Dman for sure is out the door” my guess is Benning as they don’t see him as more than 2nd pair due to slow feet and want to free up 3RD for a younger pro, probably Jones who played mostly on his right in the AHL.

    That leaves Russell.

    NHL teams like him ore than the corsiatti and Oiler fans.

    Holland has stated that EDM “has a NHL Dcorps that just needs health” (paraphrased) .I would be near certain he includes Russell in the top 4 when he states that.

    They Dman market has tightened up and Russell has value.

    I only see him moving (assuming Benning is already gone) if a RHD is coming back or in a separate transaction.

    EDM opening night Dcorps with probably be:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sekera-Jones

    Not sure of the 7D but probably Manning.

    If suspect it will be Persson over Manning and Manning as moved with apx $1M retained (as oppossed to buried, which would relieve them of NHLPA pressure and a spot on the 50).

    If no incumbent d-man is moved out, I still think we see Jones and Persson on the roster and they go with 13F, leaving, Jay W. and D. Manson with:

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    Kulevich (I think he’s under contract but not positive).

  173. leadfarmer says:

    v4ance:
    PuckPedia @PuckPedia

    The #GoJetsGo acquired 23 y/o RD Neal Pionk & their original ’19 1st Round Pick (20th – traded in Hayes deal) from #NYR for 25 y/o RD Jacob Trouba


    Trouba – RFA – finished 1 yr $5.5M Deal – UFA in 1 yr
    Pionk – RFA – finished 2 yr $925K Deal – UFA in 4 yrs

    So the end result is
    The Jets rented Hayes for a few months, got Pionk and probably ~$4 mil of cap room
    The Rangers got Trouba and added a cap hit of around $7 mil.

    Woah. Holy crap. That’s a HF boards level proposal. Pionk is young but not very good.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Senators have confirmed they are not resigning Paajavi. I would be happy for the Oilers to resign him as a fast bottom 6 winger and PK specialist.

    Another Oilers development failure, he would of been outstanding as a defender had they had the courage to try him there.

    I have a ton of time for Magnus’ speed and responsibility for our 4th line. Maybe an little raise over last year for 2 years – $1.25M X 2.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Would have “held out” for Fox (or similar).

  176. Rube Foster says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Senators have confirmed they are not resigning Paajavi. I would be happy for the Oilers to resign him as a fast bottom 6 winger and PK specialist.

    Another Oilers development failure, he would of been outstanding as a defender had they had the courage to try him there.

    Holland has had success in the past with fast, responsible reclamation projects cast-off by the Edmonton Oilers in Deveraux, Maltby and Cleary.

    Perhaps Holland’s Oilers can find similar success with Oiler Cast-off Ultra Magnus Paajaarvi. If you squint just the right way, MPS sorta looks like one of Hollands Swedish Red Wings.

  177. digger50 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I thought Trouba would have returned more that #20 and a prospect but what do I know

    *edit-I guess there is no extension in place so NYR has taken some risk here

    Wow, that’s how you get better in a hurry.

    Is that like Yamamoto (22nd) and Day for a top d man?

    Shows you the value of a first round pick to a capped team.

  178. v4ance says:

    CJ Turtoro @CJTDevil

    Neal Pionk has 1 breakup in 77 targets. He basically hands the opposing team the zone.

    ***

    For much of the year, Pionk was the absolute worst defender in the NHL when it came to allowing zone entries with possession. He gift-wrapped the offensive zone to any jamoke with a pair of skates.

    Sounds like… Justin Schultz.

    If the Jets can’t sign Myers with the spare cap room that they just opened, they’ll have to take a run at someone else like Edler or Gardiner in the UFA market … or trade for Russell =D

  179. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    6 bonafide nhl d
    Lars Klef Sek Nurse Rusty Benning

    4 Fringe
    Jones Lag Pers Bouchard

    2 Just off the fringe
    Bear Sam

    3 AHL Support
    Lowe Manning Day

    Moving Rusty makes the most sense if they can do it
    Jones / Persson duke it out for line up this year
    Bouch / Lag in later this year and/or next
    Sam pushing next year

  180. Pouzar says:

    Cheveldayoff: “We’ve got a lot of moving parts or balls in the air.”

  181. v4ance says:

    Jimmy Murphy @MurphysLaw74

    Man, Jeff Gorton is killing it as a GM for #NYR! He was a key part of Bruins Hockey Op’s when I came into hockey media and until he left when Peter Chiarelli was hired. Happy for him!

    Woodguy and a few others outlined Gorton’s moves for the Bruins that took place in the months while Chiarelli was being wooed from the Ottawa organization. Today’s move should add more weight to the theory that Gorton was actually the true architect of the Bruins 2011 Stanley Cup and not Chiarelli.

    EDIT:

    Woodguy Retweeted

    Evan Sporer @ev_sporer

    Jeff Gorton turned Derick Brassard, a couple of months of Kevin Hayes and Neal Pionk into Mika Zibanejad, a 2nd round pick, Jacob Trouba and Brendan Lemieux

  182. Pescador says:

    v4ance:
    CJ Turtoro @CJTDevil

    Neal Pionk has 1 breakup in 77 targets. He basically hands the opposing team the zone.


    ***

    For much of the year, Pionk was the absolute worst defender in the NHL when it came to allowing zone entries with possession. He gift-wrapped the offensive zone to any jamoke with a pair of skates.

    Sounds like… Justin Schultz.

    I bet Chia likes him

  183. Alpine says:

    I suppose WPG now trades an F for a LHD and re-signs Myers to play 2RD, with Pionk at 3RD getting usage he might actually be able to handle. PuckIQ had Pionk at something like 40% vs elites which is nuts for a guy who was more or less a rookie.

  184. Pescador says:

    Eh Team: This would be a great deal if you took Sutter out of it.

    Lucic + Bear + 8 for 10.

    Better still:
    Lucic + #8 for #10

  185. Ryan says:

    Pouzar:
    Cheveldayoff: “We’ve got a lot of moving parts or balls in the air.”

    Holy hell does that Trouba return look bad.

    Traded Trouba for a Hayes rental and undrafted dman.

  186. v4ance says:

    Pescador: Better still:
    Lucic + #8 for #10

    Better still Lucic for #10

  187. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Old Timer:
    Time and again we hear that the single most important player on the ice is the goalie. Look at the impact that Carey Price, Tukka Rask and Binnington can have on their respective teams.

    Given that Spencer Knight is ranked 12th and is a potential star netminder, would it be a wise move for the Oilers to either draft him at #8 or tradefor a second first round pick in order to get him. We have repeatedly commented on the need to strengthen the position. Why not do it through the draft.

    Thoughts please.

    I was thinking the same. IF he’s that good he has more value overall than anybody but Hughes and Kakko imo.

    Move a LD for a forward. If Wooden Shoes can free up cap disposing of some overpriced players maybe shop second tier free agents.

    WS said goalies are the key position in his QB analogy, and nobody trades the best ones. Or even the good ones. If they reckon Knight is the goods do it, even if goalies are voodoo. A win there is franchise changing in Connor’s prime.

    If they reckon he’ll last past 8 also trade down. If they reckon JP is going package the second and him and trade back into the first round if possible.

  188. rickithebear says:

    Russell sucks?
    A look:

    Zone entry:

    Binary analytics.
    X zone entries occurred when he was on the ice
    Conclusion: he is bad.

    Multi variable analytics:
    1. Did the forwards run a NZ trap?
    A. Yes!
    i. He pressed the blue w/ d partner in a 2-1
    Wow Russel has real low zone entry rates.
    ii. He is stuck in a 1-1 Def structure cause of his stupid rover.
    Has to collapse to edge of HD area. The true def zone!
    Nice def move by Russell. Shitty Rover

    B. No
    i. Forwards failed a NZ trap with 2-1 structure. Bad fwds.
    ii. A rover occupying fwd space causing Fwd NZ trap failure. Bad rover
    Wow Russell’s entry rates are high cause of the 4-1-1 structure.
    At least he collapsed to edge of HD area.

    Corsi:
    Binary Anslytics:
    He has a high Corsi yield rate.
    He is bad.

    Multi variable analytics
    1. Must exclude all corsi from Inside our blue as a result of no fwd NZ trap. Look at it separately.
    Then look at his Corsi yield per league Avg.
    A. 2-1 structure
    B. 1-1 structure – bad def disgrace rover

    2. all corsi yeilded after Fwd NZ trap
    A. 2-1 structure:
    Wow partnered with a top HD d partner he establishes top 5 in the league expected Save% for the two comps he plays the most. 1st & 2nd.
    He has the lowest open shot per corsi rate for dmen in the league. Sure makes the goalies job easy!

    1-1 structure:
    What a shit show!
    An uncovered side with opposition overlap allowing deep HD area penetration and high open shot%.
    Poor Russell and goalie screwed by his rover partner again.

    3. GA:
    Binary analytics:
    A. The goalie had a save% above or below league average.

    Multivariable:
    A. 2-1 structure
    1. Expected save% from open HD sh chart/ per corsi with no Fwd NZ trap.
    Wow he is elite with top HD dmen
    2. Expected save% from open HD sh chart per corsi with NZ trap.
    Wow he is elite with HD dmen

    B. 1-1 structure
    1. Expected save % from open HD sh chart per corsi.
    His elite ability to generate open shot reduction is limited. – shitty rover.

    4. Transition passing:
    Binary analytics:
    He #2 transition passing dmen

    Multi variable analytics:
    A. Have def set up fwd NZ trap……………………………..

    There is a very specific multi result success map once you start to ask levels of questions for each event.

    This kind of questioning got us to the moon!

  189. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan: Holy hell does that Trouba return look bad.

    Traded Trouba for a Hayes rental and undrafted dman.

    Chia: Hold my beer…..

  190. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar:
    Cheveldayoff: “We’ve got a lot of moving parts or balls in the air.”

    I hope we are calling him as long as he’s still drinking

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: Wow, that’s how you get better in a hurry.

    Is that like Yamamoto (22nd) and Day for a top d man?

    Shows you the value of a first round pick to a capped team.

    Whoa, Pionk isn’t all that great but he’s miles more valuable than Logan Day who is unlikely to ever play an NHL game.

    The 20th could be a Yamamoto. Of course, it could also be Boeser or Pastrnak.

  192. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, Pionk isn’t all that great but he’s miles more valuable than Logan Day who is unlikely to ever play an NHL game.

    The 20th could be a Yamamoto.Of course, it could also be Boeser or Pastrnak.

    Well at least the Jets record of drafting in the first round is like Stephen Curry from the free throw line.

  193. Oil2Oilers says:

    Rube Foster: Perhaps Holland’s Oilers can find similar success with Oiler Cast-off Ultra Magnus Paajaarvi. If you squint just the right way, MPS sorta looks like one of Hollands Swedish Red Wings.

    Agreed, plus speedsters aging curve makes him less likely to fail completely.

  194. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have a ton of time for Magnus’ speed and responsibility for our 4th line.Maybe an little raise over last year for 2 years – $1.25M X 2.

    Seems fair, just have to move out a large expensive #4 LW

  195. rickithebear says:

    LT: great to read you for the last 5 days.

    Finally awake for more than the 5-6 hrs spent with my wife & children
    A. At breakfast before they leave for school
    B. As long as I can stay awake after school.
    Last 3 days have been the best energy days in 6-7 years.

  196. rickithebear says:

    STL: was one of the 3 deepest HD open sh def units.
    Which means low ranked if you make playoffs.
    But GA structured to compete for the cup.
    Cup core roster structure theory has held for the last 30 years.

    STL:
    Rd1 vs WPG avg 2.00 ga in 4wins
    RD2 vs DAL avg 1.75 ga in 4 wins
    Conf Champ avg 1.00 ga in 4 wins
    Stanley Cup avg 1.50 ga in 4 wins

    Strong 2-1 ga structure gets you championships.

    That was the first thing I look at when analyzing a penetration sport.

  197. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: Holy hell does that Trouba return look bad.

    Traded Trouba for a Hayes rental and undrafted dman.

    not good at all. Just wow.

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