Draft Week Post No. 3: Letting the Days Go By (Water Flowing Underground)

I always wonder how many draft lists change after the McKenzie final arrives. Can you imagine being a scout in an obscure area, maybe no one else scouts your region, and some guy shows up on McKenzie’s list? “DAMMIT MCFLY, I see this Donovan kid from Duluth High School is on McKenzie’s list, and I’m holding a scouting report you filed that says “no hockey players in Minnesota this year! Can you pull two sentences about this kid out of your ass, or do I have to fire you on the spot?????”

At the other end, at the top of the list, is the ranking ahead of your team’s pick. Yesterday, the McKenzie dropped a rain cloud for the Oilers. The first seven names on the final list may well be the seven best names in the draft this year. It sets up a fascinating week.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • LowetideKen Holland’s work week: Fixing the third and fourth lines while saving money and overhauling the penalty kill
  • Jonathan Willis: How are the Oilers affected by early offseason trades and buyouts to Dion Phaneuf, Andrew MacDonald?
  • Lowetide: Falling talent and other fun facts that could benefit the Oilers in the NHL Draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanQ&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role

MCKENZIE’S LIST (LOWETIDE COMP)

McKenzie’s list is here. His top 10 and mine are basically the same, with Russian Podkolzin making his list and OHL sniper Arthur Kaliyev making mine. Past selection No. 11, it goes off the rails, as it often does. The players I faded didn’t bring a lot of offense, or were two-way tweeners I wasn’t sure of as scorers. Plus the goalie Knight.

FINAL MOCK DRAFT

This is one of the mocks that will appear on the Friday “Here Comes the Sun” post. I’m using McKenzie’s list against mine and choosing the best available with no other requirement. BPA.

No. 8 overall—LW Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton Bulldgos (OHL). Red Line says he’s a ‘complete package of size, skill and skating ability’ and he starts shooting during the anthem.

No. 38 overall—LW Nick Robertson, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Small skill forward (5.09, 160) with plus speed. Scored 27 goals in 54 games. Quick release, unafraid to go to high traffic areas.

No. 85 overall—R Maxim Cajkovic, Saint John (QMJHL). Fantastic skater has impressive potential, played for a poor team that limited opportunity. His offensive output is miles behind his potential ala Peyton Krebs.

No. 100 overall— LC Blake Murray, Sudbury (OHL). Big center with plus speed and a scoring touch. A July 2001.

TRADE BOARD

Two Oilers are now on the list, Milan Lucic at No. 26, and newcomer Jesse Puljujarvi at No. 23. Based on the early movement of defensemen, I wonder if we see an Oilers defender on this list soon. I wrote about Philip Broberg and the possible impact he could have on things for The Athletic this morning, suspect we’re going to see something that involves an Oilers defenseman or prospect blue in the coming days.

PREDICTION

I think a LHD is heading out. Might be Russell, could be a prospect, maybe something more. The tea leaves seem to he surrounding a lefty blue for a scoring winger deal. Nik Ehlers is No. 5 on the Seravalli list.

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191 Responses to "Draft Week Post No. 3: Letting the Days Go By (Water Flowing Underground)"

  1. 12 percent body fat says:

    Dach, Tracey beckman fagemo and shalegin would be a dream draft for the oilers

    6 and 7th rounders, one should be the highest ranked LHD, or Soogaard if he is still on the board.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    You have Zegras at 7 and 9 on McKenzie’s list

    Second one should have been Caufield. Fixed and I thank you.

  3. J-Bo says:

    Man I would be ecstatic if Nick Robertson fell to the Oilers in the second round! I’m thinking it will be Cozens, Zegras, or Broberg at 8. I would be happy with any of them. I don’t think we will see as many surprises this year other then maybe where the Russian goes, but I think he falls out of the top 10. Excited for Friday!!

  4. J-Bo says:

    Also, it makes me happy when you bring Simon Boisvert on your show. Such a great guest!! He will clearly be disappointed if the Oilers don’t pick Krebs.

  5. Lowetide says:

    J-Bo:
    Also, it makes me happy when you bring Simon Boisvert on your show. Such a great guest!! He will clearly be disappointed if the Oilers don’t pick Krebs.

    I love scouts, my hope is they put me in an old folks home with Mrs Lowetide and about five old scouts. That’s the way I’d like to finish up.

    They’re so sure! I love that about them.

  6. Generational Poster says:

    Read a rumour somewhere that the Jets contemplated using the Trouba deal to unload Perrault’s contract but decided to get (underwhelming IMO) assets back instead…

    Would something like Russell + Jesse P + Gagner for Ehlers + Perrault be feasible? The Jets could more easily buy out Gagner as his deal is cheaper and one year shorter than Perrault and they may think a reunion with Laine could potentially unlock Jesse.

    Maybe we need to add a pick or maybe Chevy hangs up entirely but I’d make the phone call, given Nik Ehlers seems to be available and KC is making odd trades.

  7. Truth says:

    Too many beating drums within the Oilers insiders hyping up Broberg. I sure hope they don’t take him at 8 when it appears he’ll be around at 12, and possibly later than 20. Instead of taking him because he’s high on their list, I’d like to see them take Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, or Dach (longshot) at 8 and make their move with a prospect and pick to sneak back into the 1st round to take him if he’s sliding.

    If Cozens is there at 8 (and not Zegras, Dach, or Caufiled) I hope they find someone within the top 12 willing to pay a high price to swap picks with the Oilers. I don’t think he would be a consideration in the top 15 if he didn’t have size, and much further down if he didn’t have size and speed.

  8. oilersfan says:

    Given Stauffer’s verbal I think it’s clear the oilers will draft Broberg

    I hope I’m wrong but it would appear the only thing that can prevent that is if somebody ahead of us picks him.

    When Yakupov and JP fail because of poor hockey sense and every scout with a negative opinion questions Broberg’s hockey sense isn’t that a concern?!

  9. Reja says:

    When’s the last time the top 10 went according to script.

  10. npanciroli says:

    I know a lot of media guys have been hyping up a Broberg pick, but does Holland even have any connection to them?

  11. albertaboundedmonton says:

    Bob and Jack have a mock draft up on Oilers TV . Both have the Oilers picking Broberg at 8. If Cozens falls the Oilers will have a big decision to make between Broberg and Cozens. I vote for Cozens.

  12. Rondo says:

    Should the Canucks draft Philip Broberg at the 2019 NHL Entry Draft?

    https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/should-the-canucks-draft-philip-broberg-at-the-2019-nhl-entry-draft-1.23858921

    “J.D. Burke at Elite Prospects is blunt in his assessment of Broberg, who he has ranked 29th overall: “Broberg might have the worst hockey sense of any of the top defensive prospects in this year’s draft.”

  13. russ99 says:

    After McKenzie’s list, I want the Oilers to trade down more than before, assuming nobody goes off the board ahead of us.

    Generational Poster:
    Read a rumour somewhere that the Jets contemplated using the Trouba deal to unload Perrault’s contract but decided to get (underwhelming IMO) assets back instead…

    Would something like Russell + Jesse P + Gagner for Ehlers + Perrault be feasible? The Jets could more easily buy out Gagner as his deal is cheaper and one year shorter than Perrault and they may think a reunion with Laine could potentially unlock Jesse.

    Maybe we need to add a pick or maybe Chevy hangs up entirely but I’d make the phone call, given Nik Ehlers seems to be available and KC is making odd trades.

    That’s like 2 nickels and a dime for a 50 cent piece.

    I’d think a swap of #8 and #20 would need to be involved if we’re going after Ehlers.

  14. Darth Tu says:

    Kaliyev really seems to be a bit divisive, I’ve seen him ranging from 5 to 30 on draft predictions – is there that much wobble in his game? I’m sure someone’s asked this before, but if the math is true with Kaliyev, and from reports it sounds like he’s a player, then why this massive disconnect? Would the Oilers be mad to take him at 8?

  15. McSorley33 says:

    Pretty much a good consensus on who the top 10 prospects are……

    As LT mentions, his list is nearly identical with the Mackenzie’s Bible.

    Just a reminder, we are actually selecting #8.

    9 of those 10 are forwards.

    Make the pick and let’s be on our way.

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    Generational Poster:
    Read a rumour somewhere that the Jets contemplated using the Trouba deal to unload Perrault’s contract but decided to get (underwhelming IMO) assets back instead…

    Would something like Russell + Jesse P + Gagner for Ehlers + Perrault be feasible? The Jets could more easily buy out Gagner as his deal is cheaper and one year shorter than Perrault and they may think a reunion with Laine could potentially unlock Jesse.

    Maybe we need to add a pick or maybe Chevy hangs up entirely but I’d make the phone call, given Nik Ehlers seems to be available and KC is making odd trades.

    I would think the pick we need to add is 8OV.

  17. Truth says:

    Darth Tu:
    Kaliyev really seems to be a bit divisive, I’ve seen him ranging from 5 to 30 on draft predictions – is there that much wobble in his game? I’m sure someone’s asked this before, but if the math is true with Kaliyev, and from reports it sounds like he’s a player, then why this massive disconnect? Would the Oilers be mad to take him at 8?

    From what I’ve read, there is no concerns regarding his skills or ability. Everyone seems to be concerned with his competitiveness. Does he have the passion to play similar to McDavid, or to Dustin Penner?

  18. Truth says:

    JimmyV1965: I would think the pick we need to add is 8OV.

    Judging by WPG’s recent moves I would say there’s a chance the Oilers would not need to. The Oilers are due for a reverse Chiarelli

  19. Coiler says:

    oilersfan:
    Given Stauffer’s verbal I think it’s clear the oilers will draft Broberg

    I hope I’m wrong but it would appear the only thing that can prevent that is if somebody ahead of us picks him.

    When Yakupov and JP fail because of poor hockey sense and every scout with a negative opinion questions Broberg’s hockey sense isn’t that a concern?!

    Normally I would agree wholeheartedly with your assessment but I don’t think we’re dealing with the old school Oilers anymore. This is Ken Holland’s team and no one would ever accuse him of rushing anyone into the league. He has a good history of developing his Swedish/Russian players over a 2-3 year span post draft year.

    Should the Oilers draft Broberg then I wouldn’t expect to see him with the big team for awhile.

    I would hope the same would be said for Cozens or Dach or whoever unless their play warrants their time in the NHL.

    I think there are relative certainties when it comes to this team’s defence. They’re going through a transition period and there will be significant changes coming in the future. You have an expansion draft. You have to resign Nurse. Russell and Sekera will be goners within the next two years. Injuries happen. On the horizon is Bouchard, Jones, Bear, etc.. All kids who have serious upside to them. And thank the baby Jesus for that. When’s the last time the Oilers could ever say they were developing a young D-Corps with this sort of potential?

    Maybe Holland sees this team having a great strength in mobile defencemen and he’s hoping to turn those assets into wingers?

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    I find it really unlikely that anyone is feeding Stauffer inside info about the team’s first round pick. There’s probably a bunch of mngt types higher up the foodchain who don’t know what the pick is. He might have been asked to throw out Broberg’s name as a smokescreen, but I doubt that too.

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    Truth: Judging by WPG’s recent moves I would say there’s a chance the Oilers would not need to.The Oilers are due for a reverse Chiarelli

    Ya. The Trouba deal was a head scratcher.

  22. Generational Poster says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’d pull the trigger on that if we got 20th overall back as well:
    Russell + Jesse P + Gagner + 8 OV for Ehlers + Perrault + 20 OV

  23. Jaxon says:

    Truth: If Cozens is there at 8 (and not Zegras, Dach, or Caufiled) I hope they find someone within the top 12 willing to pay a high price to swap picks with the Oilers. I don’t think he would be a consideration in the top 15 if he didn’t have size, and much further down if he didn’t have size and speed

    Size, and speed, and goal scoring ability, physical game, hockey sense, and the best defensive forward in the draft (McCagg’s draft guide). Yup, if he didn’t have all those hockey tools he wouldn’t be nearly as high. Out of North Americans who played more than 13.7 5v5 TOI this season, Cozens had the 3rd highest age and league adjusted 5v5 Primary Points projection after Tomasino and Caufield, right in the Keller, M Tkachuk, Draisaitl, Ehlers range.

  24. texmex says:

    Bob McKenzie
    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    ·
    1h
    Multiple teams I’ve spoken to are very concerned about this cap forecast. Many fear that when the NHL and NHLPA settle on an upper limit this week, it will be LESS than $82M for next season, or an increase of only slightly more than $2M.

  25. Jordan says:

    albertaboundedmonton:
    Bob and Jack have a mock draft up on Oilers TV . Both have the Oilers picking Broberg at 8. If Cozens falls the Oilers will have a big decision to make between Broberg and Cozens. I vote for Cozens.

    Not buying it. No organization goes out and tells their media people who they are going to pick the week before the draft, and have them tell the world.

    This doesn’t make any sense, unless they’re not taking Broberg, but want someone to think they are.

  26. Dustylegnd says:

    texmex:
    Bob McKenzie
    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    ·
    1h
    Multiple teams I’ve spoken to are very concerned about this cap forecast. Many fear that when the NHL and NHLPA settle on an upper limit this week, it will be LESS than $82M for next season, or an increase of only slightly more than $2M.

    This creates opportunity for the Oilers…just amazing that the “genius” management team in Vegas already has themselves behind the 8 ball after two seasons

    The ability to identify the marginal difference vs cost of player is becoming the single most important skill required to manage a successful franchise….most teams are not great at this

  27. Dustylegnd says:

    Jaxon: Size, and speed, and goal scoring ability, physical game, hockey sense, and the best defensive forward in the draft (McCagg’s draft guide). Yup, if he didn’t have all those hockey tools he wouldn’t be nearly as high. Out of North Americans who played more than 13.7 5v5 TOI this season, Cozens had the 3rd highest age and league adjusted 5v5 Primary Points projection after Tomasino and Caufield, right in the Keller, M Tkachuk, Draisaitl, Ehlers range.

    If Caufield was 6 foot he would be the #1 pick…but he isnt….

    Johnny Hockey TM hurt the value of small men this past playoff season

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    Truth:
    Too many beating drums within the Oilers insiders hyping up Broberg.I sure hope they don’t take him at 8 when it appears he’ll be around at 12, and possibly later than 20.Instead of taking him because he’s high on their list, I’d like to see them take Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, or Dach (longshot) at 8 and make their move with a prospect and pick to sneak back into the 1st round to take him if he’s sliding.

    If Cozens is there at 8 (and not Zegras, Dach, or Caufiled) I hope they find someone within the top 12 willing to pay a high price to swap picks with the Oilers.I don’t think he would be a consideration in the top 15 if he didn’t have size, and much further down if he didn’t have size and speed.

    Although I’m not generally a trade-down proponent, if Ottawa really wants to get back into the top-10 and offers 19 + 32 + Batherson, I’m all over that no matter who is on the board still. (Well, pending nobody drops out of the the top-4).

  29. Truth says:

    Jaxon: Size, and speed, and goal scoring ability, physical game, hockey sense, and the best defensive forward in the draft (McCagg’s draft guide). Yup, if he didn’t have all those hockey tools he wouldn’t be nearly as high. Out of North Americans who played more than 13.7 5v5 TOI this season, Cozens had the 3rd highest age and league adjusted 5v5 Primary Points projection after Tomasino and Caufield, right in the Keller, M Tkachuk, Draisaitl, Ehlers range.

    I disagree. Cozens is likely a very safe pick to become an NHLer. At 8 I’m swinging for the fences on a potential star. From what I’ve read, Cozens projects as a top 6 F with ability to play all situations. Obviously I’m just guessing, but I don’t see him with nearly the upside as any of those you mention as comparable.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    oilersfan: Given Stauffer’s verbal I think it’s clear the oilers will draft Broberg

    Maybe they are spotlighting Broberg in the hopes that someone ahead picks him early, thus leaving one of the Oilers top 7 targets available at 8.

    Maybe they’re doing something smart, for once.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    1 – Congrats to the St Louis Blues. My happiest non-Oilers winning the cup experience.

    2 – Draft Day Oilers – Please, no more 1st round wasting the pick on midgets. Or 1st/2nd round Euros. Or “sensitive” Americans. Or 1st round goalies lol

    Or…

  32. Reja says:

    Dustylegnd: If Caufield was 6 foot he would be the #1 pick…but he isnt….

    Johnny Hockey TM hurt the value of small men this past playoff season

    These small gutter bugs will help get u in the playoffs if u quess right on them. Seen enough of yamo to know that he’s by far not the greatest at putting himself in a position not to get hurt. A opponent looks in Jenny’s direction doing the regular season and it’s a penalty. Playoffs can’t be called this way when the competitiveness is cracked up or else 5O minutes a game would be on the PP and Water Polo would take over as being more physical and competitive.

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja:
    When’s the last time the top 10 went according to script.

    Never?

  34. McSorley33 says:

    Generational Poster,

    I’d pull the trigger on that if we got 20th overall back as well:
    Russell + Jesse P + Gagner + 8 OV for Ehlers + Perrault + 20 OV
    *****************************************************************************
    Russell and Gagner…..are you sure you don’t want to add Manning to
    ‘sweeten the pot?

  35. godot10 says:

    J-Bo:
    Also, it makes me happy when you bring Simon Boisvert on your show. Such a great guest!! He will clearly be disappointed if the Oilers don’t pick Krebs.

    He won’t be the only one (if Cozens is already gone).

  36. YKOil says:

    Dustylegnd: This creates opportunity for the Oilers…just amazing that the “genius” management team in Vegas already has themselves behind the 8 ball after two seasons

    The ability to identify the marginal difference vs cost of player is becoming the single most important skill required to manage a successful franchise….most teams are not great at this

    Agreed re: opportunities,

    Re: Vegas – they have some coverage via the Clarkson contract and Miller is an easy trade, getting Stone was worth the Cap pain imo, and pending the Karlsson ask they might not actually lose anyone valuable. Next year when Haula’s contract is up however…

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex:
    Bob McKenzie
    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    ·
    1h
    Multiple teams I’ve spoken to are very concerned about this cap forecast. Many fear that when the NHL and NHLPA settle on an upper limit this week, it will be LESS than $82M for next season, or an increase of only slightly more than $2M.

    Lots of deals available this summer for bottom-6 forwards. Holland needs only to be patient.

  38. godot10 says:

    Truth:
    Too many beating drums within the Oilers insiders hyping up Broberg.I sure hope they don’t take him at 8 when it appears he’ll be around at 12, and possibly later than 20.Instead of taking him because he’s high on their list, I’d like to see them take Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, or Dach (longshot) at 8 and make their move with a prospect and pick to sneak back into the 1st round to take him if he’s sliding.

    If Cozens is there at 8 (and not Zegras, Dach, or Caufiled) I hope they find someone within the top 12 willing to pay a high price to swap picks with the Oilers.I don’t think he would be a consideration in the top 15 if he didn’t have size, and much further down if he didn’t have size and speed.

    Cozens had pretty much the best even strength point production of draft eligibles in the CHL. He is meat and potatoes. No fake meat soylent green in the product.

  39. godot10 says:

    Truth:
    Too many beating drums within the Oilers insiders hyping up Broberg.I sure hope they don’t take him at 8 when it appears he’ll be around at 12, and possibly later than 20.Instead of taking him because he’s high on their list, I’d like to see them take Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, or Dach (longshot) at 8 and make their move with a prospect and pick to sneak back into the 1st round to take him if he’s sliding.

    If Cozens is there at 8 (and not Zegras, Dach, or Caufiled) I hope they find someone within the top 12 willing to pay a high price to swap picks with the Oilers.I don’t think he would be a consideration in the top 15 if he didn’t have size, and much further down if he didn’t have size and speed.

    The Oilers are hyping Broberg to get someone desperate for a D to trade ahead of them in the draft so a forward falls. I HOPE! -).

  40. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Maybe they are spotlighting Broberg in the hopes that someone ahead picks him early, thus leaving one of the Oilers top 7 targets available at 8.

    Maybe they’re doing something smart, for once.

    Maybe the new regime keeps their cards well hidden and sends out mixed signals. I would be more shocked if Holland took the Swede at no 8 then if he packages the pick in a Bold Move Trade.

  41. YKOil says:

    Even if you bury Manning’s contract in the minors:

    Pouliot, Manning, Gryba = ~ $2.7m in wasted Cap space, just this year, that never had to happen.

    That is a LOT of money in an off-season like this one where the Cap may be tight and teams all over the spectrum are looking to mix it up.

    Peter Chiarelli, I hope he is a good person because in his role as GM, he sucked.

  42. godot10 says:

    Darth Tu:
    Kaliyev really seems to be a bit divisive, I’ve seen him ranging from 5 to 30 on draft predictions – is there that much wobble in his game? I’m sure someone’s asked this before, but if the math is true with Kaliyev, and from reports it sounds like he’s a player, then why this massive disconnect? Would the Oilers be mad to take him at 8?

    Square peg. Most teams, including the Oilers, hire round peg coaches.

    “Make one exception and next thing you know you have a team full of exceptions.” Bill Parcells

    If one does it, one has to know what one is doing. The Oilers and square pegs….Gagner, Yakupov, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto.

  43. Reja says:

    godot10: Cozens had pretty much the best even strength point production of draft eligibles in the CHL.He is meat and potatoes.No fake meat soylent green in the product.

    The feel good word is plant based. God Damn You All To Hell.

  44. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Lots of deals available this summer for bottom-6 forwards. Holland needs only to be patient.

    Stay away from UFA’s. The place to shop is the salary cap dump bargain bin.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Stay away from UFA’s.The place to shop is the salary cap dump bargain bin.

    Disagree. Stay away from the 1st wave of UFA’s, but this summer there will be quite a few decent bottom-6 UFA’s looking for work and willing to work cheap.

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Second one should have been Caufield. Fixed and I thank you.

    That’s a tell.

  47. Truth says:

    godot10: Cozens had pretty much the best even strength point production of draft eligibles in the CHL.He is meat and potatoes.No fake meat soylent green in the product.

    If the Oilers end up grabbing him, I can assure you I hope that I’m wrong. I think he’s the safest out of those in the 5-12 range to have an NHL career. I’ve seen him play a few times and nothing to me stands out as “special”. Like you say meat and potatoes. Or a good at everything, not great any one thing, sort of player.

  48. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10,

    Yamamoto had an injury plagued season & was a bit rushed to the show.

    I’d say a small down arrow, far from calling him a square peg shoved into a round hole. He’s headed to his draft +3.

  49. Generational Poster says:

    McSorley33:
    Generational Poster,

    I’d pull the trigger on that if we got 20th overall back as well:
    Russell + Jesse P + Gagner + 8 OV for Ehlers + Perrault + 20 OV
    *****************************************************************************
    Russell and Gagner…..are you sure you don’t want to add Manning to
    ‘sweeten the pot?

    You know what – I think I would consider throwing Manning in too!

    Sarcasm aside, Winnipeg is:
    – trying to unload Perrault’s contract
    – shopping Ehlers (bad playoffs?)
    – a bit thin on NHL d-men currently – Russell is no Norris candidate but servicable 5D (I think his perceived value in the league is higher than most here including me)

    The opportunity to shed some cap to re-sign Myers, move up in the draft and take a shot at a JP reclamation project might entice them.

    Would I make that deal if I were them? Hello no, but worse trades have been made and maybe Chevy is the new Chia.

  50. godot10 says:

    Truth: If the Oilers end up grabbing him, I can assure you I hope that I’m wrong. I think he’s the safest out of those in the5-12 range to have an NHL career.I’ve seen him play a few times and nothing to me stands out as “special”. Like you say meat and potatoes.Or a good at everything, not great any one thing, sort of player.

    He is better than almost anyone in the draft at producing even strength points.

  51. Truth says:

    godot10: The Oilers are hyping Broberg to get someone desperate for a D to trade ahead of them in the draft so a forward falls.I HOPE! -).

    I hope this is true as well. Best case, IMO, would be the Canucks freaking out and swapping #10 and #40 for #8 to take Broberg and the Oilers still walking away with Dach/Zegras/Caufield/Krebs

    I think it’s the opposite though. Breaking in the fan base for a pick that will be immediately questioned by many.

  52. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10,

    Curious your thought on some low $/ / low draft pick compensation RFA Offer Sheet targets?

    By eye I really liked Tomas Nosek in Vegas. If @evolvingwild has a good take on his value as under $2M on a 3 year deal. Keep it under $2.1M and the compensation is only a 3rd.

    Also, what would a workable offer on Gusev be? Keep it under $1.4M and you have NO picks back.

  53. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: The feel good word is plant based. God Damn You All To Hell.

    Excuse me, my irony/reading comprehension are out of wack. Is this some kind of vegetarian comment?

  54. hunter1909 says:

    Generational Poster: Sarcasm aside, Winnipeg is:

    Trying how to keep a team together that’s underachieved to start with.

  55. Truth says:

    godot10: He is better than almost anyone in the draft at producing even strength points.

    I know. Will it translate to the NHL with his style? Or will he be a good second line winger or 3rd C?

  56. Reja says:

    hunter1909: Excuse me, my irony/reading comprehension are out of wack. Is this some kind of vegetarian comment?

    No not at all. I just had a flashback to a couple of Charlton Heston movies from the 60’s 70’s

  57. Death By Misadventure says:

    Truth: From what I’ve read, there is no concerns regarding his skills or ability.Everyone seems to be concerned with his competitiveness.Does he have the passion to play similar to McDavid, or to Dustin Penner?

    I think every Russian player (I know he’s American, but…) has their commitment to the game questioned.

  58. RonnieB says:

    Seravalli tweeted that the belief is the Jets have offered Ehlers to Carolina for a RHD.

    The two that would make sense to me are Hamilton or Pesce. If so, the Oilers combination of has-beens, never-was, and magic beans isn’t competitive; the Oilers would have to offer a massive overpay, which doesn’t seem to be Holland’s nature.

  59. Tarkus says:

    Button has just put out another mock draft over on TSN. He no longer has the Oilers taking Boldy:

    https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

  60. Death By Misadventure says:

    Dustylegnd: This creates opportunity for the Oilers…just amazing that the “genius” management team in Vegas already has themselves behind the 8 ball after two seasons

    The ability to identify the marginal difference vs cost of player is becoming the single most important skill required to manage a successful franchise….most teams are not great at this

    I’m sure this is an opportunity, but I’m not sure this is an opportunity for the Oilers since they are one of the teams that needs to look to shed cap.

    How do you see the Oilers shedding cap this offseason?

    Seriously asking. Not trolling.

  61. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: No not at all. I just had a flashback to a couple of Charlton Heston movies from the 60’s 70’s

    Thanks.

  62. Durag says:

    RonnieB:
    Seravalli tweeted that the belief is the Jets have offered Ehlers to Carolina for a RHD.

    The two that would make sense to me are Hamilton or Pesce. If so, the Oilers combination of has-beens, never-was, and magic beans isn’t competitive; the Oilers would have to offer a massive overpay, which doesn’t seem to be Holland’s nature.

    Given Winnipeg’s apparent understanding of the market for RHD, I’m surprised they’re not offering him straight up for Brent Burns

  63. Pescador says:

    Death By Misadventure: I think every Russian player (I know he’s American, but…) has their commitment to the game questioned.

    Well, if you have to ask the question….

  64. Professor Q says:

    I’m not so sure I believe the “hype” around Broberg and Edmonton.

    This might be like John Dorsey in Cleveland.

    The media thinks that you’re for sure going with Rosen, Barkley, Allen, or Darnold. They are so positive, but Dorsey keeps his cards close to his chest, and leaks misinformation to catch which staff member is doing the leaking.

    But you’ve stressed of course that you need a QB. Holland has stressed that he needs Top 6 help, specifically wing, but the Cs available at 8 can help with the wing as well, just like he said that Nuge or Draisaitl will be playing wing. He is also in love with the stock of really talented D we have in Bakersfield and the junior ranks. Why add to that overstock when you have two huge areas of need in the forward ranks and goaltending?

    There’s no way, then, that he’s going for Broberg, who seems like a mixture of Nurse and Klefbom, but a lesser version of both.

    He’s going with Caufield, Cozens, or Kaliyev, etc. The first would match the Baker Mayfield comparison, I suppose (though most of the NTDP forwards are smallish).

  65. Pouzar says:

    Tarkus:
    Button has just put out another mock draft over on TSN.He no longer has the Oilers taking Boldy:

    https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

    Oh good Gord another in the Broberg camp.
    I am gonna be sick.

  66. Reja says:

    Professor Q:
    I’m not so sure I believe the “hype” around Broberg and Edmonton.

    This might be like John Dorsey in Cleveland.

    The media thinks that you’re for sure going with Rosen, Barkely, Allen, or Darnold. They are so positive, but Dorsey keeps his cards close to his chest, and leaks misinformation to catch which staff member is doing the leaking.

    But you’ve stressed of course that you need a QB. Holland has stressed that he needs Top 6 help, specifically wing, but the Cs available at 8 can help with the wing as well, just like he said that Nuge or Draisaitl will be playing wing. He is also in love with the stock of really talented D we have in Bakersfield and the junior ranks. Why add to that overstock when you have two huge areas of need in the forward ranks and goaltending?

    There’s no way, then, that he’s going for Broberg, who seems like a mixture of Nurse and Klefbom, but a lesser version of both.

    He’s going with Caufield, Cozens, or Kaliyev, etc. The first would match the Baker Mayfield comparison, I suppose (though most of the NTDP forwards are smallish).

    Caufied looked pretty stocky can’t find his weight. Holy smokes do him and Hughes look young they both could pass for 15

  67. YKOil says:

    Braun from San Jose to Philly for a 2nd (2019) and a 3rd (2020). Great trade for San Jose. Over the barrel and they still get a decent haul.

    Will now disregard all those who say Russell has negative value. Oilers may still retain a little salary (say $500k to a maillion) to maximize a positive return – say a 2nd round pick and a decent prospect – but that is a far cry from retaining salary just to dump the contract.

  68. Reja says:

    Pouzar: Oh good Gord another in the Broberg camp.
    I am gonna be sick.

    Button will troll the Oilers every chance he can get. Sather and Lowe must have really hurt his feelings many moons ago.

  69. JimmyV1965 says:

    Tarkus:
    Button has just put out another mock draft over on TSN.He no longer has the Oilers taking Boldy:

    https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

    I can’t understand how Button sees Broberg as a fit in Edmonton. LHD is the one position where the team is stacked. The Oilers may take Broberg because they love him that much, but it isn’t a fit at all.

  70. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Just say No to Bro

    Enough promising D in the queue. Need a low risk talented forward prospect that can join the fray in 2-3 years max.

  71. Reja says:

    YKOil:
    Braun from San Jose to Philly for a 2nd (2019) and a 3rd (2020).Great trade for San Jose.Over the barrel and they still get a decent haul.

    Will now disregard all those who say Russell has negative value.Oilers may still retain a little salary (say $500k to a maillion) to maximize a positive return – say a 2nd round pick and a decent prospect – but that is a far cry from retaining salary just to dump the contract.

    I hope your right can’t see it.

  72. Professor Q says:

    YKOil:
    Braun from San Jose to Philly for a 2nd (2019) and a 3rd (2020).Great trade for San Jose.Over the barrel and they still get a decent haul.

    Will now disregard all those who say Russell has negative value.Oilers may still retain a little salary (say $500k to a maillion) to maximize a positive return – say a 2nd round pick and a decent prospect – but that is a far cry from retaining salary just to dump the contract.

    Well, this is the time where San Jose Braun Noses its way out of Cap Hell. Let’s see what else happens this week! Very exciting.

  73. Reja says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Just say No to Bro

    Enough promising D in the queue. Need a low risk talented forward prospect that can join the fray in 2-3 years max.

    Leon,Connor and the bottom 6 need cheap affordable wingers so let’s draft a D many years away that’s projected 10-15 spots later. No way Holland is starting his Tenure as GM making this reach pick.

  74. texmex says:

    Reja: Leon,Connor and the bottom 6 need cheap affordable wingers so let’s draft a D many years away that’s projected 10-15 spots later. No way Holland is starting his Tenure as GM making this reach pick.

    I feel them same way. I’ll be very disappointed if they draft Broberg given the need for top 6 wingers.

    If they do take him at #8, I wonder if their plan is to move one of the young LD for a forward? Or do they trade down once they see how the first 7 picks are made? What would Samaroukov get you in a trade? KH seems to be a big fan of Sammy though?

    Friday should be interesting or disappointing.

  75. Truth says:

    texmex:
    Friday should be interesting or disappointing.

    Just remember that not long ago we had to sit there and watch the Oilers trade #16 and #33 for a low level AHL player, with Barzal still on the board.

    I have a feeling friday might be both interesting and disappointing. But they’d really have to do something horrendous to beat that.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    I know a lot of media guys have been hyping up a Broberg pick, but does Holland even have any connection to them?

    I was just about to post something along these lines. Yes, I have alot of respect for Bob S. and, yes, he is an “Oilers Insider”, however, at the same time, I don’t think his thoughts intimate information provided by Holland the Gretz.

  77. YKOil says:

    texmex: I feel them same way. I’ll be very disappointed if they draft Broberg given the need for top 6 wingers.

    For me it is less about the top-6 wingers and all about forwards with skill. Full stop.

    Our pipeline for forwards with skill consists of… Benson and Yamamoto? That is NOT good. Team needs to stock the forward lines post-haste so unless Byram drops, get a forward or trade back to get Broberg and a few more lotto tickets to be spent on forwards.

  78. texmex says:

    Truth: Just remember that not long ago we had to sit there and watch the Oilers trade #16 and #33 for a low level AHL player, with Barzal still on the board.

    I have a feeling friday might be both interesting and disappointing.But they’d really have to do something horrendous to beat that.

    I remember it well. I yelled “WTF” at the TV when Gary announced the trade. My wife came running into the living room to see what was wrong!! LOL

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: This creates opportunity for the Oilers…just amazing that the “genius” management team in Vegas already has themselves behind the 8 ball after two seasons

    The ability to identify the marginal difference vs cost of player is becoming the single most important skill required to manage a successful franchise….most teams are not great at this

    How does a lowering of the expected upper level cap provide opportunity for the Oilers?

    The Oilers are a team that doesn’t have cap space to take advantage of others and few reasonable avenues to open said cap space up.

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    Tarkus:
    Button has just put out another mock draft over on TSN.He no longer has the Oilers taking Boldy:

    https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

    *groan*

    et tu, Button?

    If the Oilers draft a non-elite LHD from Sweden with Cozens still on the board, I’ll be very surprised, and very angry.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Maybe they are spotlighting Broberg in the hopes that someone ahead picks him early, thus leaving one of the Oilers top 7 targets available at 8.

    Maybe they’re doing something smart, for once.

    I’m not sure I get this premise – a team that had, lets say, Zegras on their list at 6 or 7 is going to change paths and draft Brogerg because some verbal out of the Oilers camp is that they want him?

  82. Todd Macallan says:

    ArmchairGM: *groan*

    et tu, Button?

    If the Oilers draft a non-elite LHD from Sweden with Cozens still on the board, I’ll be very surprised, and very angry.

    This.

  83. buck yoakam says:

    I sincerely hope Holland follows his instincts and listens to his scouts ( who we all can agree have done a reasonable job lately) …and steadily improves our team…stauffer and the insiders don’t really have a sniff anymore (which I love) and craig b and kelly h are allowed ( by the network) to keep their grudges and also broadcast at the same time…interesting when we have such educated and informed public forums these days…with the St Louis cup I think we all have hope that we firstly need to make the playoffs …then, the rest could be history…thanks Lowetide for your consistent take on our oilers ….

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure I get this premise – a team that had, lets say, Zegras on their list at 6 or 7 is going to change paths and draft Brogerg because some verbal out of the Oilers camp is that they want him?

    It might sway a team who has two players rated equally, I don’t know. It’s probably just a smokescreen to disguise the Oilers true intentions – these things are very carefully guarded secrets as you know.

  85. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Reja: Leon,Connor and the bottom 6 need cheap affordable wingers so let’s draft a D many years away that’s projected 10-15 spots later. No way Holland is starting his Tenure as GM making this reach pick.

    I almost hope Holland makes this pick just to see the site go nuclear. LT will have to reconstitute the blog since more than half the posters will succumb to madness or arrhythmia. OP will survive this purge BTW, as will Woodguy. Not sure about Glovejuice, kind of leaning towards madness there. Most of those that don’t survive, well, no need to name all the names … you know who you are.

    Oh, I almost forgot to mention, it takes a few years but Broberg turns into Scott Niedermayer and wins 4 Stanleys as an Oiler. Good times ahead for almost half of us..

  86. Numenius says:

    ArmchairGM: It might sway a team who has two players rated equally, I don’t know. It’s probably just a smokescreen to disguise the Oilers true intentions – these things are very carefully guarded secrets as you know.

    Right. I’d think it’s not so much they’re trying to trick someone else into taking Broberg, they’re trying to hide the guy they’re really gangbusters over and want other teams to pass on, like, say Cozens.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    “We’ve let Magnus Paajarvi know that we won’t be making him a contract offer…”

    When even Ottawa doesn’t bother offering a contract, you know your days are numbered.

  88. dustrock says:

    I think I’d pick Seider at 8 over Broberg, but I’d prefer Cozens.

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    YKOil: For me it is less about the top-6 wingers and all about forwards with skill.Full stop.

    Our pipeline for forwards with skill consists of… Benson and Yamamoto?That is NOT good.Team needs to stock the forward lines post-haste so unless Byram drops, get a forward or trade back to get Broberg and a few more lotto tickets to be spent on forwards.

    I’d add Marody to that list. But you’re right. We have much more dman depth.

  90. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: *groan*

    et tu, Button?

    If the Oilers draft a non-elite LHD from Sweden with Cozens still on the board, I’ll be very surprised, and very angry.

    I don’t have an issue with the Oil drafting Broberg. He’s one of the youngest guys in the draft. His raw tools are elite. I just don’t think we will draft him and it’s certainly not a fit, as Button said in the article.

  91. pts2pndr says:

    Truth: I disagree.Cozens is likely a very safe pick to become an NHLer.At 8 I’m swinging for the fences on a potential star.From what I’ve read, Cozens projects as a top 6 F with ability to play all situations.Obviously I’m just guessing, but I don’t see him with nearly the upside as any of those you mention as comparable.

    Home run hitters generally have a less than stellar batting average. They tend to strike out a lot!😉

  92. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Charles Hudon rejected his QO in MTL, I’d have some time for him in the bottom 6. His possession numbers are pretty strong, scored 30P a year ago

  93. pts2pndr says:

    Truth: I know.Will it translate to the NHL with his style?Or will he be a good second line winger or 3rd C?

    Both are needs and at entry level salary would be most appreciated. I believe that is Cozens low end. I believe he will prove to be a top six two way winger 30 goal man. Given his skating and size that makes him a very valuable piece to a championship team.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I can’t understand how Button sees Broberg as a fit in Edmonton. LHD is the one position where the team is stacked. The Oilers may take Broberg because they love him that much, but it isn’t a fit at all.

    Its stacked now but three years ago it wasn’t and in 2-3 years, when this player may be NHL ready, it may not be again.

    Russell and Sekera will both be gone for sure. Maybe we need to move on from Nurse for cap reasons – hope not but if he digs in and wants $7.75M X 8 or something……

    We all love Jones and Sammy and most of Lagesson but there are not sure things there – I think Sammy has 1st pairing potential but he may never even become an every day NHL player, we don’t know. Jones may turn out to never be more than a 3rd pairing guy. I think Lagesson is ready for 3LD right now and within a few years will be playing 22 minutes on the 2nd pairing but, who knows, he’s never played an NHL game.

    From what I read about Broberg, I’m have hesitation in selecting him but the LD depth should have nothing to do with that.

  95. blainer says:

    Reja: Caufiedlooked pretty stocky can’t find his weight. Holy smokes do him and Hughes look young they both could pass for 15

    I said the same thing last night. For a short guy he looks pretty solid. He is listed as 165 pounds but I would not be surprised to see him get his playing weight up to 185 pounds or more which for his height would make him very capable of playing in the big league… This is a pretty solid kid who must be working on the weights for sure.

    I would have no problem drafting him and would not surprise me to see him become the best goal scorer in this draft. His height doesn’t bother me at all. If his weight and body was like Yammo’s I don’t think I would consider him as much. This is a player that size would not bother me at all. I could be wrong though..

    I would draft Couzins Dach and Zegras before him though.. Even taking these players ahead of Caufield could also turn out to be a mistake.. These drafts are always tricky.. 72 Goals in one season no mater the league, team or circumstances is still very impressive.

    IMO the thought of not drafting him because we already have Yammo is not the way we should be drafting. If the scouting staff think he is the best player available don’t think twice go up and draft the kid.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: For me it is less about the top-6 wingers and all about forwards with skill.Full stop.

    Our pipeline for forwards with skill consists of… Benson and Yamamoto?That is NOT good.Team needs to stock the forward lines post-haste so unless Byram drops, get a forward or trade back to get Broberg and a few more lotto tickets to be spent on forwards.

    That does a bit of disservice to Maksimov and McLeod.

  97. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: That does a bit of disservice to Maksimov and McLeod.

    I think Maksimov will surprise a lot of people, skill with a mean streak. Just what this team needs. McLeod was good value at his draft slot … fingers crossed with him too.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I think Maksimov will surprise a lot of people, skill with a mean streak. Just what this team needs. McLeod was good value at his draft slot … fingers crossed with him too.

    Maksimov has the best shot of any Oiler forward since Jason Arnott (maybe Stoll). It’s already high end NHL. He may never play an NHL game but, if he “makes it”, he could score a lot of goals with that shot.

    Let’s also not forget, he is more than an offence only skill player. He started off the year on pace for 50G but, after Niagara loaded up, he took on a different role – less offensive opportunities and playing a plus 2-way game – he excelled at it and was one of the best penalty killers in the OHL. Here is hoping he can improve his skating.

    McLeod kind of ran in place in draft plus 1 but let’s not forget, he was fenaerally ranked in the low 20s – first round talent.

  99. Reja says:

    blainer: I said the same thing last night. For a short guy he looks pretty solid. He is listed as 162 pounds but I would not be surprised to see him get his playing weight up to 185 pounds or more whichfor his height would make him very capable of playing in the big league… This is a pretty solid kid who must be workingon the weights for sure.

    I would have no problem drafting him and would not surprise me to see him become the best goal scorer in this draft. His height doesn’t bother me at all. If his weight and body was like Yammo’s I don’t think I would consider him as much. This is a player that size would not bother me at all. I could be wrong though..

    I would draft Couzins Dach and Zegras before him though.. Even taking these players ahead of Caufield could also turn out to be a mistake.. These drafts are always tricky.. 72 Goals in one season no mater the league, team or circumstances is still very impressive.

    IMO the thought of not drafting him because we already have Yammo is not the way we should be drafting. If the scouting staff think he is the best player available don’t think twice go up and draft the kid.

    Martin St. Louis stocky maybe. The kid can score definitely knows how to find the soft spots Brett Hull probably scored 500 in the soft spots. Will he be able to do it in the bigs the more footage I see of him the more I like. I don’t think it would take long to see if he’s the real deal

  100. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maksimov has the best shot of any Oiler forward since Jason Arnott (maybe Stoll). It’s already high end NHL. He may never play an NHL game but, if he “makes it”, he could score a lot of goals with that shot.

    Let’s also not forget, he is more than an offence only skill player.He started off the year on pace for 50G but, after Niagara loaded up, he took on a different role – less offensive opportunities and playing a plus 2-way game – he excelled at it and was one of the best penalty killers in the OHL.Here is hoping he can improve his skating.

    McLeod kind of ran in place in draft plus 1 but let’s not forget, he was fenaerally ranked in the low 20s – first round talent.

    We need another half dozen forwards in the pipeline.

  101. Reja says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I almost hope Holland makes this pick just to see the site go nuclear. LT will have to reconstitute the blog since more than half the posters will succumb to madness or arrhythmia. OP will survive this purge BTW, as will Woodguy. Not sure about Glovejuice, kind of leaning towards madness there. Most of those that don’t survive, well, no need to name all the names … you know who you are.

    Oh, I almost forgot to mention, it takes a few years but Broberg turns into Scott Niedermayer and wins 4 Stanleysas an Oiler. Good times ahead for almost half of us..

    Are he could be olli Juolevi and after Holland is long gone the no 9 pick is putting up 40 goals a year every year

  102. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure I get this premise – a team that had, lets say, Zegras on their list at 6 or 7 is going to change paths and draft Brogerg because some verbal out of the Oilers camp is that they want him?

    ArmchairGM: It might sway a team who has two players rated equally, I don’t know. It’s probably just a smokescreen to disguise the Oilers true intentions – these things are very carefully guarded secrets as you know.

    It could also signal to teams they’re open for business and willing to trade down.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Yawney has signed with LA to go back with McClellan and will be made official shortly. As per Gregor.

    No surprise at all there – I think the Oilers and Kings have just been figuring out the money over the past few weeks.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stauffer: it’s a buyers market for goalies.

    Wasn’t he one of the ones pushing the narrative that the Koskinen signing was OK because the market was going to be so thin?

  105. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Stauffer: it’s a buyers market for goalies.

    Wasn’t he one of the ones pushing the narrative that the Koskinen signing was OK because the market was going to be so thin?

    He and Spector were throwing around the idea of Tristan Jarry as a backup…not exactly the “experienced” goalie that Holland has mentioned to share or take over the load from Koskinen

  106. jp says:

    Primetime: He and Spector were throwing around the idea of Tristan Jarry as a backup…not exactly the “experienced” goalie that Holland has mentioned to share or take over the load from Koskinen

    Bob Green liked him with the Oil Kings?

  107. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Stauffer: it’s a buyers market for goalies.

    Wasn’t he one of the ones pushing the narrative that the Koskinen signing was OK because the market was going to be so thin?

    Yeah that was beyond dumb
    It was very clear that the number of goaltending vacancies in the league is a small number compared to how many goalies are trying to get those. Especially goaltending vacancies where you have a shot at being a starter

  108. striatic says:

    Jordan,

    I believe those two selected Yamamoto in their mock during his draft year. It can be a way to prepare a fan base for a potentially controversial choice.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime: He and Spector were throwing around the idea of Tristan Jarry as a backup…not exactly the “experienced” goalie that Holland has mentioned to share or take over the load from Koskinen

    If the are going to do that, they might as well give Starrett his shot – he didn’t get the NHL games that Jarry did but his AHL season was better – its not like Jarry’s NHL games prove anything.

  110. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its stacked now but three years ago it wasn’t and in 2-3 years, when this player may be NHL ready, it may not be again.

    Russell and Sekera will both be gone for sure. Maybe we need to move on from Nurse for cap reasons – hope not but if he digs in and wants $7.75M X 8 or something……

    We all love Jones and Sammy and most of Lagesson but there are not sure things there – I think Sammy has 1st pairing potential but he may never even become an every day NHL player, we don’t know.Jones may turn out to never be more than a 3rd pairing guy.I think Lagesson is ready for 3LD right now and within a few years will be playing 22 minutes on the 2nd pairing but, who knows, he’s never played an NHL game.

    From what I read about Broberg, I’m have hesitation in selecting him but the LD depth should have nothing to do with that.

    I don’t really feel like I know enough to comment on individual draft picks. At this point, I have faith they will get it right. If they take Broberg, I have to believe they’ve done it for good reasons. And I do know there are good reasons. Is he better than someone like Cozens? I don’t think so, but what the hell do I really know?

    It just kinda bugs me when Button says he thinks the Oil will take Broberg and he explains it by saying it’s a good fit. Sure, you can argue it’s a good fit. Every position is a good fit. But a forward is a better fit. Myrtle basically justified his argument last week that the Oil want Zaitsev because it’s a good fit. Hmm? Seems like an easy argument when you’re simply throwing spaghetti against the wall.

  111. Mr DeBakey says:

    dustrock:
    I think I’d pick Seider at 8 over Broberg, but I’d prefer Cozens.

    In the Hockey News [I know, I know] Draft Preview, one of their scouts said about Broberg “Most guys I know have Victor Soderstrom ahead of him”

    I guess the question is why would you pick either at 8?

  112. Mr DeBakey says:

    OriginalPouzar: I was just about to post something along these lines.Yes, I have alot of respect for Bob S. and, yes, he is an “Oilers Insider”, however, at the same time, I don’t think his thoughts intimate information provided by Holland the Gretz.

    Stauffer isn’t an Insider.
    Not the way TSN has insiders.
    He’s an extension of the Oilers PR Department.
    He’s not trying to dig out facts, rather trying to shape opinion.

  113. texmex says:

    From Gregor.

    “He played forward up until the past few years. He hasn’t been a D-man for as long as most young D-men so he has room to grow. His skating his excellent.” Wagman from @mckeenshockey on Broberg.

  114. Mr DeBakey says:

    ArmchairGM: Although I’m not generally a trade-down proponent, if Ottawa really wants to get back into the top-10 and offers 19 + 32 + Batherson, I’m all over that no matter who is on the board still. (Well, pending nobody drops out of the the top-4).

    That’s a sweet trade.
    Especially if all you’re planning to do with the 8th is draft Broberg.

  115. leadfarmer says:

    texmex:
    From Gregor.

    “He played forward up until the past few years. He hasn’t been a D-man for as long as most young D-men so he has room to grow. His skating his excellent.” Wagman from @mckeenshockey on Broberg.

    He’s also still 17. He has extra room to grow.
    He’s 8 months younger than Bouchard when he was drafted
    Not saying he’s the right choice
    But he is an intriguing choice

  116. Biggus Dickus says:

    If the Oil trade the pick and the suns draft Bol Bol, I’ll have a pretty good weekend.

  117. jtblack says:

    IF ….. IF EDM plans to select Broberg @ #8. I will be disappointed.

    IF that is their plan, I hope they trade down and grab a couple more picks no higher than 60th …

    Go from #8 to #14, #42, #58 …. or something like that ..

    i still hope we get Cozens, Dach or Krebs in the #8 hole … I think all 3 will be in the NHL after 1 more season of junior

  118. blainer says:

    I wonder with Hughes going first to NJ coupled with Hischier plus Zajac would it make sense for the devils to look at trading Zacha for JP.. Not like he is lighting it up in Jersey either. I’d throw in a sweetner if that’s what it would take.. This is exactly the type of trade that could work out for both teams..

  119. Pouzar says:

    Guy Flaming

    Verified account

    @TPS_Guy
    2h2 hours ago

    I recently told a scout about the growing buzz in Edmonton around Broberg at 8th overall.

    “That would be the most Oilers pick ever”

    He didn’t mean it as a compliment.

  120. Glovjuice says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I almost hope Holland makes this pick just to see the site go nuclear. LT will have to reconstitute the blog since more than half the posters will succumb to madness or arrhythmia. OP will survive this purge BTW, as will Woodguy. Not sure about Glovejuice, kind of leaning towards madness there. Most of those that don’t survive, well, no need to name all the names … you know who you are.

    Oh, I almost forgot to mention, it takes a few years but Broberg turns into Scott Niedermayer and wins 4 Stanleysas an Oiler. Good times ahead for almost half of us..

    Great stuff. Gorgeous post. Kiss me kiss me.

  121. Glovjuice says:

    dustrock:
    I think I’d pick Seider at 8 over Broberg, but I’d prefer Cozens.

    Agreed, Seider makes Klef look average from dreamy perspective. One gorgeous dude that Seider.

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Every draft I get a feeling about a player or two. The feeling comes from reading LT and the various links etc. If the obvious choices are gone, I’m feeling Newhook and Knight.

    I suspect Holland with his knowledge of the colleague/competitor GMs manage a trade down in pick to augment these choices.

    I like about Newhook his speed, separation speed, and that he’s aggressive all over the ice and a dangerous unpredictable skilled attacker. And a centre. That’s a playoff player, even strength out scorer to me.

    Knight seems to have everything needed to be a top tier G. Sure there are current prospects at G. But we’ve seen 2 teams recently that loaded up with great prospects at one position and cashed them.

    The Preds with D, the Kings with goalies come to mind.

    Normally I say that the draft BPA market and trade is sticky, but perhaps having a larger group of great kids in the same spot, that doesn’t diminish the home team if deals are made, creates some envy. Which is a great help when selling.

  123. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: If the are going to do that, they might as well give Starrett his shot – he didn’t get the NHL games that Jarry did but his AHL season was better – its not like Jarry’s NHL games prove anything.

    If Jarry were the add I imagine both he and Starrett would get a fair shot at the backup gig. Agree there’s not much to chose between them (though Jarry does have a longer pro resume, including NHL games).

    We’ll know Holland doesn’t say what he means if Jarry is the main goalie add, as he’s talked about needing a 1B option. It could work – you’ve got two young guys who could be future starters if things go well. As attractive as $675k for the backup position is, a move like this is more likely to end badly.

  124. Ryan says:

    texmex:
    From Gregor.

    “He played forward up until the past few years. He hasn’t been a D-man for as long as most young D-men so he has room to grow. His skating his excellent.” Wagman from @mckeenshockey on Broberg.

    Didn’t Swedish Oil’s scout report mention “boom or bust” potential?

    I’m not sure the Oilers need a boom or bust pick.

    They need an Ehlers type pick, not a Merkley type selection.

  125. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    godot10,

    Curious your thought on some low $/ / low draft pick compensation RFA Offer Sheet targets?

    By eye I really liked Tomas Nosek in Vegas.If @evolvingwild has a good take on his value as under $2M on a 3 year deal.Keep it under $2.1M and the compensation is only a 3rd.

    Also, what would a workable offer on Gusev be?Keep it under $1.4M and you have NO picks back.

    I haven’t really thought much about the potential offer sheets. I’ve mostly just thought about salary cap casualty market, looking for a winger for Nugent-Hopkins.

    There is money for one significant forward, a goaltender, and then mostly $1 million something UFA’s unless the OIlers can manage to offload salary.

  126. oilersfan says:

    Stauffer has said over the years that he is friends with Howson.

    I suspect that’s where he is getting this Broberg pick idea from and I think it’s legit.

    I don’t like it but I would bet on it

    I really hope it’s a smoke screen like Ty Smith was last year

    Somebody emailed the show to point out that many scouts question Broberg ‘s hockey sense and Bob seemed completely unaware of it. I believe I have read it from 3-4 different scouts.

    If they draft Broberg I hope he comes and plays in the OHL next year. Does London have his rights?

  127. Munny says:

    Reja: Water Polo would take over as being more physical and competitive.

    Water Polo is one of the most vicious games on the planet. Just sayin’.

  128. texmex says:

    Kevin Hayes 6 years / 42 million 🤯🤯🤯🤯

    Exit: 7 years / 50!!!!

  129. Profit says:

    I’m feeling like Broberg is a false flag.

    I was thinking Lowetide posters should start a disinformation campaign on Russell. Start talking him up, pointing to the positives. There’s probably just enough clout here that could tip the balance on a trade.

    On that subject, I’ve often wondered if Oilers *fandom* early adoption of analytics and fancies caused the market on Oilers players to be more efficient. In effect, all of the quality analysis that has been around the Oilers for the last decade plus had negatively impacted trade values by (correctly) identifying both positive and negative contributors. Savvy teams would or should take advantage of this intel and I know as a fact, professionals read this blog to check theories before doing their own due diligence. It’s like we’re providing free research for the other teams like a Canadian large cap in market efficiency while we’re trading for uncovered US microcap or pinksheet type of players…

    It might be time for a fake news outbreak.

    I for one think that Russell has been unfairly maligned and that his steady play should attract a premium price in the current RD shortage world.

  130. jp says:

    oilersfan,

    Hamilton Bulldogs it looks like.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:

    If they draft Broberg I hope he comes and plays in the OHL next year. Does London have his rights?

    Hamilton.

  132. Jethro Tull says:

    Munny: Water Polo is one of the most vicious games on the planet. Just sayin’.

    Yeah, those horses just freak out and start thrashing about the pool.

  133. Reja says:

    Munny: Water Polo is one of the most vicious games on the planet. Just sayin’.

    I knew that I don’t know why I referred to it. Maybe it’s the first time ever that hockey and water polo or mentioned in the same sentence.

  134. Pouzar says:

    Some team will give Brandon Tanev $4 mil book it.
    That Hayes contract is beyond bonkers.

  135. Numenius says:

    Profit,

    Awesome post.

    Russell’s skills as an RD truly would be hard to replace, were he to be traded.

    *wink*

  136. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t really feel like I know enough to comment on individual draft picks. At this point, I have faith they will get it right. If they take Broberg, I have to believe they’ve done it for good reasons. And I do know there are good reasons. Is he better than someone like Cozens? I don’t think so, but what the hell do I really know?

    It just kinda bugs me when Button says he thinks the Oil will take Broberg and he explains it by saying it’s a good fit. Sure, you can argue it’s a good fit. Every position is a good fit. But a forward is a better fit. Myrtle basically justified his argument last week that the Oil want Zaitsev because it’s a good fit. Hmm? Seems like an easy argument when you’re simply throwing spaghetti against the wall.

    Button is a Oiler troll and Him and Hrudey are Flames shrills Can’t wait to see and hear Button hopefully this year retract his butchering of Bouchard last year.

  137. Pouzar says:

    Is Draisaitl a bargain yet? Asking for a friend.

  138. Munny says:

    Pouzar:
    Some team will give Brandon Tanev $4 mil book it.
    That Hayes contract is beyond bonkers.

    Throw in Eberle as another comp… how could he get less than 4?

    It was the second tier guys that were supposed to suffer in a cappie world. Not much suffering going on yet.

  139. Munny says:

    If Broberg is the Oiler pick at 8, someone send paramedics to my home. And an insurance adjuster.

  140. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny:
    If Broberg is the Oiler pick at 8, someone send paramedics to my home.And an insurance adjuster.

    Funny Munny!

  141. YKOil says:

    Pouzar:
    Guy Flaming
    ‏Verified account

    @TPS_Guy2h2 hours ago

    I recently told a scout about the growing buzz in Edmonton around Broberg at 8th overall.

    “That would be the most Oilers pick ever”

    He didn’t mean it as a compliment.

    Yep. I prefer Seider and Soderstrom to Broberg. Holland, if this is your ninja way, trade down. Please.

  142. Munny says:

    If we take Bob’s ranking as the middle of the range of where scouts have him placed… that means he’s ranked anywhere from 7.5 – 22.5, with most scouts clumping much nearer Bob’s rank.

    Taking him at 8 wouldn’t be off the board, but very few scouts would agree with it… If we assume that with enough scouts, the curve described by their rankings is normally distributed or close enough to it, then picking him at 8 has to be at least two standard deviations from the mean, if not three.

    So best case scenario, 5 percent of all scouts would agree with taking him at 8. And it could be as low as .15 percent.

    Hats off to the scout who talked to Guy Flaming and said… “would be the most Oiler pick ever”.

    Because this truly would be smartest man in the room syndrome.

    I cannot believe the rumour is actually true. Pundits are thinking Holland is looking for the next Lidstrom. Never doubt a pundit’s propensity to rely on an easy narrative. Saves on actual thinking. Which, if they were good at, would mean they’d be working in Hockey, not on Hockey.

  143. v4ance says:

    Nick DeSouza @NickDeSouza_

    Kevin Hayes is 26 with zero career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 7.14M x 7 years
    William Nylander is 23 with two career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 6.92 x 6 years

    Absolutely bonkers deal for Hayes. Philly bought out Andy MacDonald this week only to grab another anchor… maybe they hired Chiarelli while we weren’t looking?

  144. Victoria Oil says:

    Is Chiarelli the Flyers new GM? They made a bad trade with Gudas for Niskanen, they overpaid for Braun and now they’ve made a ridiculous overpay for Kevin Hayes.

    If a 32 year-old Braun can fetch a 2nd and a 3rd with his $3.8 million cap hit, we should be able to trade Russell for a bag of pucks with no money retained, no?

  145. v4ance says:

    Victoria Oil,

    Great minds and all that jazz

  146. YKOil says:

    Munny:
    I cannot believe the rumour is actually true.Pundits are thinking Holland is looking for the next Lidstrom.Never doubt a pundit’s propensity to rely on an easy narrative.Saves on actual thinking.Which, if they were good at, would mean they’d be working in Hockey, not on Hockey.

    Well… sometimes the easy narrative fits (says the fan of the team that has a coke machine collection in the basement).

  147. Reja says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Is Chiarelli the Flyers new GM? They made a bad trade with Gudas for Niskanen, they overpaid for Braun and now they’ve made a ridiculous overpay for Kevin Hayes.

    If a 32 year-old Braun can fetch a 2nd and a 3rd with his $3.8 million cap hit, we should be able to trade Russell for a bag of pucks with no money retained, no?

    All the good and tough choices Hextall had to make pissed away in a couple of days it’s baffling. Hextall must have gotten into it with the owner because the way I see it he was setting them up for many years to come. It’s Bizarre

  148. Reja says:

    Munny:
    If Broberg is the Oiler pick at 8, someone send paramedics to my home.And an insurance adjuster.

    Holland is having fun playing the field no way he takes him at 8

  149. Jaxon says:

    v4ance:
    Nick DeSouza @NickDeSouza_

    Kevin Hayes is 26 with zero career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 7.14M x 7 years
    William Nylander is 23 with two career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 6.92 x 6 years

    Absolutely bonkers deal for Hayes.Philly bought out Andy MacDonald this week only to grab another anchor…maybe they hired Chiarelli while we weren’t looking?

    So bonkers. That’s why trading for negotiating rights never works. As soon as you do that, the player has ALL the leverage. The GM practically has to sign him to save face for giving up even a low round pick. Their agents know this and can turn the screws.

    Such a weird move. Hayes isn’t that unique or elite that you give up a pick not knowing if he’s even slightly interested and then pay him 7.14 for 7 years with 55 points being his best season at 27. I bet nobody, including Chuck Fletcher, would have paid that much on the open market in July.

    EDIT: Matt Cane’s $5,877,330.60 x 6 years estimate is much more reasonable and yet that still seems a bit high to me.

  150. v4ance says:

    Literally, Fletcher should have just taken $12 million and offer sheeted Mitch Marner instead of overpaying Hayes

  151. Reja says:

    Jaxon: So bonkers. That’s why trading for negotiating rights never works. As soon as you do that, the player has ALL the leverage. The GM practically has to sign him to save face for giving up even a low round pick. Their agents know this and can turn the screws.

    Such a weird move. Hayes isn’t that unique or elite that you give up a pick not knowing if he’s even slightly interested and then pay him 7.14 for 7 years with 55 points being his best season at 27. I bet nobody, including Chuck Fletcher, would have paid that much on the open market in July.

    Maybe it’s a good thing all our forwards are crap with Hayes getting that contract all it would take is a couple of offer sheets and most of the GM’s would be in a Tizzy.

  152. Victoria Oil says:

    Jaxon: So bonkers. That’s why trading for negotiating rights never works. As soon as you do that, the player has ALL the leverage. The GM practically has to sign him to save face for giving up even a low round pick. Their agents know this and can turn the screws.

    Such a weird move. Hayes isn’t that unique or elite that you give up a pick not knowing if he’s even slightly interested and then pay him 7.14 for 7 years with 55 points being his best season at 27. I bet nobody, including Chuck Fletcher, would have paid that much on the open market in July.

    Nikita Nikitin says hello.

  153. JOFA says:

    I think Al might be onto something with Kaliyev. First choice is Caufield, but would be happy with Kaliyev.

  154. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Glovjuice: Great stuff. Gorgeous post. Kiss me kiss me.

    So if all this should come to pass, do I still get the kiss? Asking for myself, not a friend.

  155. Rondo says:

    Reja,

    Boldy an excellent fit for the Oilers.

  156. Jaxon says:

    Victoria Oil: Nikita Nikitin says hello.

    Yup, that’s one I was thinking of as well when I wrote it.

  157. Jaxon says:

    Good news is MacKenzie has Beecher at #41. Meaning he might still be available and won’t be considered a reach for Edmonton. Like a few others on here, I think Cozens and Beecher would be my favorite scenario. Physical, fast, goal scorers with a great defensive game. Grant McCagg’s guide has a section where he polls scouts for the best in certain attributes. The top two defensive forwards in the draft? Cozens and Beecher. Beecher was also polled as the 5th best skater in the draft. Pronman has them in the 6-21 range in skating and in the 3-12 range for their physical game. You want players who can keep up with McDavid, improve the team’s goal differential, pressure other teams and score? They seem like your best bets. Look how important Bergeron and O’Rielly were this year, or Datsyuk, Kopitar and Toews in other years. That’s who I want.

    McCagg’s Poll for Best Defensive Forward:
    “A 6-3 center who can win key draws,
    block passing lanes with his wingspan,
    skate back to cover any opponent
    thanks to his speed, and position himself
    well in his own zone is a valuable
    weapon defensively. Cozens checks off
    all of those boxes, and was the unanimous
    choice.”

  158. Glovjuice says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: So if all this should come to pass, do I still get the kiss? Asking for myself, not a friend.

    Sure, why not.

  159. JimmyV1965 says:

    Listening to Jets podcast. Sounds like they’re trying to resign Myers. I really don’t think it makes sense. I would rather trade for Russell and play him at 2RD for two years at $4 mill than sign Myers for six years at $6 mill plus.

  160. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jaxon:
    Good news is MacKenzie has Beecher at #41. Meaning he might still be available and won’t be considered a reach for Edmonton. Like a few others on here, I think Cozens and Beecher would be my favorite scenario. Physical, fast, goal scorers with a great defensive game. Grant McCagg’s guide has a section where he polls scouts for the best in certain attributes. The top two defensive forwards in the draft? Cozens and Beecher. Beecher was also polled as the 5th best skater in the draft. Pronman has them in the 6-21 range in skating and in the 3-12 range for their physical game. You want players who can keep up with McDavid, improve the team’s goal differential, pressure other teams and score? They seem like your best bets. Look how important Bergeron and O’Rielly were this year, or Datsyuk, Kopitar and Toews in other years. That’s who I want.

    +1 What do you think of Trevor Zegras? Holland has seen the USHL guys alot.

  161. rickithebear says:

    A Nick ehlers is one our biggest needs.f
    Add to top 125 fwd (16G 39P) depth to our cup core roster.
    Ehlers averaged equal to 1.59 top125 Fwds per season over last 3 seasons.
    27G 57P
    An ideal Eberle replacement.
    Trading Klefbom for a top 125 forward improves our cup core roster.
    By adding to our top 125 depth and
    Eliminating GA def destroying rovering.

    Philadelphia added
    2 historical top 10 1st comp HD Dmen 2 of 3or4 needed HD dmen cup core depth.
    Niskanen
    Braun
    Added K Hayes equal to 1.15 top 125 fwds per season last 3 seasons.
    17G 49P

    Oilers 125 ranks Last year
    I build in the standard % difference in efficiency between goals and avg of 1st and 2nd assists.
    To get a true top 125 fwd production value from day 1 of my cup core roster.
    It is a Critical high % multivariable affects.
    Draisaitl 2.93 top 125 fwds
    Mcdavid 2.75 top 125 fwds
    RNH 1.76 top 125 fwds
    Chaisson 1.20 top 125 fwds more value than Hayes 3 year avg. for 1M
    Kassian .82 top 125 fwds
    I want Chaisson & Kassian getting half of Mcdavids RW side.
    We end up with 2 K. Hayes level of results for 3-4M.

  162. Jaxon says:

    Andy Dufresne: +1What do you think of Trevor Zegras?Holland has seen the USHL guys alot.

    I think he’s primarily a playmaker and therefore not a big need for Edmonton. The depth chart is full of playmakers already. I know it’s odd to call a 51 goal scorer a playmaker, but Draisaitl’s best tools are passing. Nugent-Hopkins has improved his shot and release and thus his scoring as well, but is more of a setup man, than a sniper. I want a goal scorer at #8.

    Secondly, the USNTDP is such a strange animal. It’s an all-star team that plays together all year with great coaches and training and facilities. Even when playing against NCAA, I think they have a distinct advantage. As for their USHL numbers, they don’t really outshine the CHL players, except Turcotte. Hughes was 5th on his own team in 5v5 Primary Points/60. It gets even more exaggerated for 2nd, 3rd and 4th line players. Their competition goes way down but they’re still playing with all-star linemates no matter where they are in the depth chart. Imagine the Team Canada Hlinka-Gretzky team playing against the CHL teams all year long, and those CHL teams wouldn’t have their top players (they’d be on Team Canada). How many points would Cozens, Dach, Tomasino, Newhook, Krebs get in that situation? It would be insane.

    So I’m very wary of USNTDP players. I think they all should be drafted a bit lower than many are saying. Look at the draft+1 seasons of Wahlstrom and Farabee. They don’t look like sure things 1 year later and they were all the rage last year.

  163. rickithebear says:

    16-17 oilers 125 fwd depth.
    Mcdavid 2.18
    Draisaitl 1.89
    Maroon 1.42
    Lucic 1.38
    Eberle 1.28
    RNH 1.15
    Letestu .99
    Increadable goal scoring winger depth
    4 of our 5 best top 125 fwds.

    Draisaitl 2.93
    Ehlers 1.59
    Erickson 1.20 (27gm with Mcdavid)
    Chiasson 1.20 (27 gm with Mcdavid)
    Kassian 1.20 (27 gm with Mcdavid)
    Gagner .92
    Gets our winger top 125 production depth a real good start

  164. Yeti says:

    Ryan: Didn’t Swedish Oil’s scout report mention “boom or bust” potential?

    No, SP said Broberg was fairly certain to become a 4D minimum. The uncertainty is whether he could become a 2D.

  165. ArmchairGM says:

    Profit:
    I’m feeling like Broberg is a false flag.

    I was thinking Lowetide posters should start a disinformation campaign on Russell. Start talking him up, pointing to the positives. There’s probably just enough clout here that could tip the balance on a trade.

    On that subject, I’ve often wondered if Oilers *fandom* early adoption of analytics and fancies caused the market on Oilers players to be more efficient. In effect, all of the quality analysis that has been around the Oilers for the last decade plus had negatively impacted trade values by (correctly) identifying both positive and negative contributors. Savvy teams would or should take advantage of this intel and I know as a fact, professionals read this blog to check theories before doing their own due diligence. It’s like we’re providing free research for the other teams like a Canadian large cap in market efficiency while we’re trading for uncovered US microcap or pinksheet type of players…

    It might be time for a fake news outbreak.

    I for one think that Russell has been unfairly maligned and that his steady play should attract a premium price in the current RD shortage world.

    Haha, there was something yesterday in the comment section of one of theathletic.com articles, I’ll see if I can find it and post it here.

  166. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Good news is MacKenzie has Beecher at #41. Meaning he might still be available and won’t be considered a reach for Edmonton. Like a few others on here, I think Cozens and Beecher would be my favorite scenario. Physical, fast, goal scorers with a great defensive game. Grant McCagg’s guide has a section where he polls scouts for the best in certain attributes. The top two defensive forwards in the draft? Cozens and Beecher. Beecher was also polled as the 5th best skater in the draft. Pronman has them in the 6-21 range in skating and in the 3-12 range for their physical game. You want players who can keep up with McDavid, improve the team’s goal differential, pressure other teams and score? They seem like your best bets. Look how important Bergeron and O’Rielly were this year, or Datsyuk, Kopitar and Toews in other years. That’s who I want.

    McCagg’s Poll for Best Defensive Forward:
    “A 6-3 center who can win key draws,
    block passing lanes with his wingspan,
    skate back to cover any opponent
    thanks to his speed, and position himself
    well in his own zone is a valuable
    weapon defensively. Cozens checks off
    all of those boxes, and was the unanimous
    choice.”

    Beecher reminds me somewhat of Couturier, it might take him a while to find his offensive game at the NHL level, but it’ll come. In the meantime he’s a world class defensive center.

  167. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Listening to Jets podcast. Sounds like they’re trying to resign Myers. I really don’t think it makes sense.I would rather trade for Russell and play him at 2RD for two years at $4 mill than sign Myers for six years at $6 mill plus.

    Do the Jets have a late 1st available? We just might be able to accommodate…

  168. Professor Q says:

    Holland has also stressed that he isn’t going to be trading the #8 pick, so I don’t think he’s going to be trading down for Broberg either (a lot of you including Lowetide himself have suggested a trade down).

    We aren’t getting Broberg, and it’s okay. Breathe in, and out.

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    Pronman on Krebs: “I watched him a lot. He’s not dynamic in terms of speed or skill. He’s an awesome player, the vision is elite and he competes hard but he’s not a game breaker.”

  170. ArmchairGM says:

    Profit:
    I’m feeling like Broberg is a false flag.

    I was thinking Lowetide posters should start a disinformation campaign on Russell. Start talking him up, pointing to the positives. There’s probably just enough clout here that could tip the balance on a trade.

    On that subject, I’ve often wondered if Oilers *fandom* early adoption of analytics and fancies caused the market on Oilers players to be more efficient. In effect, all of the quality analysis that has been around the Oilers for the last decade plus had negatively impacted trade values by (correctly) identifying both positive and negative contributors. Savvy teams would or should take advantage of this intel and I know as a fact, professionals read this blog to check theories before doing their own due diligence. It’s like we’re providing free research for the other teams like a Canadian large cap in market efficiency while we’re trading for uncovered US microcap or pinksheet type of players…

    It might be time for a fake news outbreak.

    I for one think that Russell has been unfairly maligned and that his steady play should attract a premium price in the current RD shortage world.

    ArmchairGM: Haha, there was something yesterday in the comment section of one of theathletic.com articles, I’ll see if Ican find it and post it here.

    Nugent-Bowman wrote:

    Russell’s no-movement clause turned into a modified no-trade clause this month; he can now be dealt to 10 teams of his choosing. Russell was the No. 4 defenceman and was third in the NHL with 185 blocked shots. But he doesn’t provide much offence for the $4-million AAV he pulls in and his 45.09 Corsi For percentage isn’t great.

    Response from the comments:

    I’m no Russell fan, but at least be accurate in your writing. In the past 2 seasons combined, 5 Oilers defensemen played over 1000 5v5 minutes, here’s how they ranked by P/60:

    1. Nurse 0.99
    2. Benning 0.86
    3. Russell 0.73
    4. Larsson 0.61
    5. Klefbom 0.61

    So you call out Russell for not providing enough offense to justify his pay, and yet he actually provides MORE offense than Klefbom at LESS pay. Where does that leave Oscar?

    I’m not arguing that Russell is better than or more valuable than Klefbom, just putting his offensive output into perspective. Why slag a guy for not putting up points when he’s actually doing okay?

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q:
    Holland has also stressed that he isn’t going to be trading the #8 pick, so I don’t think he’s going to be trading down for Broberg either (a lot of you including Lowetide himself have suggested a trade down).

    We aren’t getting Broberg, and it’s okay. Breathe in, and out.

    PHEW!!

    Kidding, sort of. I like Broberg a lot, but I’m fairly certain there will be better players – and better fits – available at 008. If we had another pick mid-teens or so, I wouldn’t have a problem with using that to select Broberg (although I’d likely go for Kaliyev / Tomasino at that spot myself).

  172. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Nugent-Bowman wrote:

    Russell’s no-movement clause turned into a modified no-trade clause this month; he can now be dealt to 10 teams of his choosing. Russell was the No. 4 defenceman and was third in the NHL with 185 blocked shots. But he doesn’t provide much offence for the $4-million AAV he pulls in and his 45.09 Corsi For percentage isn’t great.

    Response from the comments:

    I’m no Russell fan, but at least be accurate in your writing. In the past 2 seasons combined, 5 Oilers defensemen played over 1000 5v5 minutes, here’s how they ranked by P/60:

    1. Nurse 0.99
    2. Benning 0.86
    3. Russell 0.73
    4. Larsson 0.61
    5. Klefbom 0.61

    So you call out Russell for not providing enough offense to justify his pay, and yet he actually provides MORE offense than Klefbom at LESS pay. Where does that leave Oscar?

    I’m not arguing that Russell is better than or more valuable than Klefbom, just putting his offensive output into perspective. Why slag a guy for not putting up points when he’s actually doing okay?

    The other inaccuracy is that it becomes a no move clause with a modified no trade clause with 10 team trade list this summer, and a1 5 team trade list next summer. Small but significant difference.

  173. jp says:

    v4ance:
    Nick DeSouza @NickDeSouza_

    Kevin Hayes is 26 with zero career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 7.14M x 7 years
    William Nylander is 23 with two career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 6.92 x 6 years

    Absolutely bonkers deal for Hayes.Philly bought out Andy MacDonald this week only to grab another anchor…maybe they hired Chiarelli while we weren’t looking?

    I’m not suggesting this is a good deal, but I’m not sure how out of whack it is with other stuff that’s going on. We may need to adjust to this being the new normal.

    Looking just at Eberle as a comp, 5.5M vs 7.1M.
    Both have averaged 49 points per season over the past 3 years
    Hayes is 2 years younger (shy by a week)
    Hayes is a C
    Hayes kills penalties

    If I was forced to pick between the two deals I’d likely go with Hayes.

  174. Jaxon says:

    jp: I’m not suggesting this is a good deal, but I’m not sure how out of whack it is with other stuff that’s going on. We may need to adjust to this being the new normal.

    Looking just at Eberle as a comp, 5.5M vs 7.1M.
    Both have averaged 49 points per season over the past 3 years
    Hayes is 2 years younger (shy by a week)
    Hayes is a C
    Hayes kills penalties

    If I was forced to pick between the two deals I’d likely go with Hayes.

    Good point. But you also have to look at it in context with team makeup and cap. Philadelphia is deep at C with Couturier and Patrick as well as Giroux (initially a C) who has been one of the best C in the league when he played there. They shouldn’t really be desperate for a C who scores under 60 points. It’s a similar situation to Edmonton where McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins can all play top 6 C. If you find two players with relatively equal production, but one plays C and commands an extra $1.5M, I think going with a winger makes sense in that situation.

  175. dsr29 says:

    rickithebear,

    N :kz LLP

  176. v4ance says:

    jp: I’m not suggesting this is a good deal, but I’m not sure how out of whack it is with other stuff that’s going on. We may need to adjust to this being the new normal.

    Looking just at Eberle as a comp, 5.5M vs 7.1M.
    Both have averaged 49 points per season over the past 3 years
    Hayes is 2 years younger (shy by a week)
    Hayes is a C
    Hayes kills penalties

    If I was forced to pick between the two deals I’d likely go with Hayes.

    I’m sorry but that’s a ludicrous slant

    Hayes highest number of goals is 25 but his average is only around 18 goals/yr and his career high of 54 points was only achieved last year.

    Eberle has scored a high of 34 goals and 76 points but he’s hit 25 goals FIVE times and his career average is over 50 points/season. So his AVERAGE goal scoring and total points/season are equal to Hayes career highs.

    The only reason their last 3 years are equal at 49 pt/yr is because Eberle just had his worst year at 34 pts to skew his results. Neither player will get much better but Eberle is much more likely to cover his contract than Hayes.

    ***

    Saying Hayes is the new normal is like saying David Clarkson’s contract was the new normal a few years back. Being a center and killing penalties is no reason to overpay by nearly $3 million/year on a long term deal.

    Eberle’s contract is $5.5M over 5 years. Hayes is $7.14M over 7 years. Generally you get a DISCOUNT for going longer on term.

    SO what you’re arguing is that Hayes should be getting ~$7.5M over 5 years?

  177. ArmchairGM says:

    Gold. Hopefully our scouting department is on top of guys like this.

    https://theathletic.com/1034392/2019/06/19/brown-five-chl-sleeper-prospects-for-the-2019-nhl-draft/

  178. jp says:

    Jaxon: Good point. But you also have to look at it in context with team makeup and cap. Philadelphia is deep at C with Couturier and Patrick as well as Giroux (initially a C) who has been one of the best C in the league when he played there. They shouldn’t really be desperate for a C who scores under 60 points. It’s a similar situation to Edmonton where McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins can all play top 6 C. If you find two players with relatively equal production, but one plays C and commands an extra $1.5M, I think going with a winger makes sense in that situation.

    Definitely a fair point. But centers still have a little extra value (even to a team deep in Cs) all else being equal. And there is more to recommend Hayes over Eberle than just the position they play.

  179. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Definitely a fair point. But centers still have a little extra value (even to a team deep in Cs) all else being equal. And there is more to recommend Hayes over Eberle than just the position they play.

    FWIW I wouldn’t have done either of those contracts.

  180. Ryan says:

    Yeti: No, SP said Broberg was fairly certain to become a 4D minimum. The uncertainty is whether he could become a 2D.

    Okay, he referenced the concern, but didn’t share it himself.

    “Now the big talking point on Broberg and the thing that has people questioning him as an NHLer and thinking he’s one of the most likely players to bust amongst the top picks is his hockey IQ. I personally don’t think it’s a big issue, not elite in any way but not bad either, he knows his way around the ice, reads and reacts well. ”

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/05/24/the-ushl-sweden-and-the-2019-draft/#comment-839708

  181. jp says:

    v4ance: I’m sorry but that’s a ludicrous slant

    Hayes highest number of goals is 25 but his average is only around 18 goals/yr and his career high of 54 points was only achieved last year.

    Eberle has scored a high of 34 goals and 76 points but he’s hit 25 goals FIVE times and his career average is over 50 points/season.So his AVERAGE goal scoring and total points/season are equal to Hayes career highs.

    The only reason their last 3 years are equal at 49 pt/yr is because Eberle just had his worst year at 34 pts to skew his results. Neither player will get much better but Eberle is much more likely to cover his contract than Hayes.

    ***

    Saying Hayes is the new normal is like saying David Clarkson’s contract was the new normal a few years back.Being a center and killing penalties is no reason to overpay by nearly $3 million/year on a long term deal.

    Eberle’s contract is $5.5M over 5 years.Hayes is $7.14M over 7 years.Generally you get a DISCOUNT for going longer on term.

    SO what you’re arguing is that Hayes should be getting ~$7.5M over 5 years?

    As you like. I don’t agree it’s ludicrous obviously.

    Eberle scored 37 points last year at age 28. Hayes scored 55 at age 26. Eberle’s 76 point season is 8 years ago now. He’s only scored more than 51 once in the past 4 years.

    Eberle’s deal pays him for his 29-33 year old seasons. Hayes for his 27-33 year old season, so there’s more prime years in the Hayes deal, at least theoretically.

    If you think the Hayes deal is an overpay by 3M per year I don’t know what to say. A 27 year old UFA center who just scored 55 points and has averaged 46 per year over his career? And does other things well? All I can say is I very strongly disagree that 4M-4.5M is the market value.

    Also, I never said that Hayes SHOULD be making 7.1M or that I think it’s a good deal, just that it’s not so crazy in the current climate. Soon to be 31 year old Carl Hagelin just got 2.75M X 4 yrs and has averaged 7 goals and 24 points per season over the past 3 yrs. The new normal.

  182. Ice Sage says:

    So much great chatter, sorry if I missed it but:

    Do we know why McKenzie has ‘overlooked’ Kaliyev?

  183. Professor Q says:

    Ice Sage:
    So much great chatter, sorry if I missed it but:

    Do we know why McKenzie has ‘overlooked’ Kaliyev?

    He didn’t want to be Russian to conclusions.

  184. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: FWIW I wouldn’t have done either of those contracts.

    Yes, they’re definitely not team building contracts. But if you think you’re in the cup window these types of deals might be necessary from time to time (certainly most teams do them).

    It will be interesting to see how upcoming UFA deals compare to these two, as well as how the the two deal age.

    Also, the Flyers are suddenly a very good team on paper. Seemingly with some more $$ left to spend after signing their remaining RFAs. This series of moves could work out very well for them IMO (acknowledging it was built on the back of Hextall’s cautious approach).

  185. jp says:

    Bohologo: Sorry Professor, the kid is from Staten Island.

    He didn’t want to be Staten the obvious.

  186. Professor Q says:

    jp: He didn’t want to be Staten the obvious.

    Thank you! That was perfect.

    Haha, yes, I know that he was born in Staten Island and grew up in Detroit. However, his family only speaks Russian at home and the pun had to work somehow, right?

  187. jp says:

    Professor Q: Thank you! That was perfect.

    Haha, yes, I know that he was born in Staten Island and grew up in Detroit. However, his family only speaks Russian at home and the pun had to work somehow, right?

    🙂

    Didn’t realize he only spoke Russian at home. So the ‘Russian factor’ is real!

  188. Cahoon says:

    I know people hate the potential Broberg pick, but being new at D, being young, having a big frame, lightning fast, I have so much time for a pick like that. I think if he is the pick and none of the top 6 is there when we pick, look for a trade down.

    How many here would do as Ricki suggested a Klefbom for Ehlers trade? I would.

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