I always wonder how many draft lists change after the McKenzie final arrives. Can you imagine being a scout in an obscure area, maybe no one else scouts your region, and some guy shows up on McKenzie’s list? “DAMMIT MCFLY, I see this Donovan kid from Duluth High School is on McKenzie’s list, and I’m holding a scouting report you filed that says “no hockey players in Minnesota this year! Can you pull two sentences about this kid out of your ass, or do I have to fire you on the spot?????”
At the other end, at the top of the list, is the ranking ahead of your team’s pick. Yesterday, the McKenzie dropped a rain cloud for the Oilers. The first seven names on the final list may well be the seven best names in the draft this year. It sets up a fascinating week.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Fixing the third and fourth lines while saving money and overhauling the penalty kill
- Jonathan Willis: How are the Oilers affected by early offseason trades and buyouts to Dion Phaneuf, Andrew MacDonald?
- Lowetide: Falling talent and other fun facts that could benefit the Oilers in the NHL Draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
- Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
- Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
- Lowetide: Hard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
MCKENZIE’S LIST (LOWETIDE COMP)
McKenzie’s list is here. His top 10 and mine are basically the same, with Russian Podkolzin making his list and OHL sniper Arthur Kaliyev making mine. Past selection No. 11, it goes off the rails, as it often does. The players I faded didn’t bring a lot of offense, or were two-way tweeners I wasn’t sure of as scorers. Plus the goalie Knight.
FINAL MOCK DRAFT
This is one of the mocks that will appear on the Friday “Here Comes the Sun” post. I’m using McKenzie’s list against mine and choosing the best available with no other requirement. BPA.
No. 8 overall—LW Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton Bulldgos (OHL). Red Line says he’s a ‘complete package of size, skill and skating ability’ and he starts shooting during the anthem.
No. 38 overall—LW Nick Robertson, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Small skill forward (5.09, 160) with plus speed. Scored 27 goals in 54 games. Quick release, unafraid to go to high traffic areas.
No. 85 overall—R Maxim Cajkovic, Saint John (QMJHL). Fantastic skater has impressive potential, played for a poor team that limited opportunity. His offensive output is miles behind his potential ala Peyton Krebs.
No. 100 overall— LC Blake Murray, Sudbury (OHL). Big center with plus speed and a scoring touch. A July 2001.
TRADE BOARD
Two Oilers are now on the list, Milan Lucic at No. 26, and newcomer Jesse Puljujarvi at No. 23. Based on the early movement of defensemen, I wonder if we see an Oilers defender on this list soon. I wrote about Philip Broberg and the possible impact he could have on things for The Athletic this morning, suspect we’re going to see something that involves an Oilers defenseman or prospect blue in the coming days.
PREDICTION
I think a LHD is heading out. Might be Russell, could be a prospect, maybe something more. The tea leaves seem to he surrounding a lefty blue for a scoring winger deal. Nik Ehlers is No. 5 on the Seravalli list.
I know people hate the potential Broberg pick, but being new at D, being young, having a big frame, lightning fast, I have so much time for a pick like that. I think if he is the pick and none of the top 6 is there when we pick, look for a trade down.
How many here would do as Ricki suggested a Klefbom for Ehlers trade? I would.
🙂
Didn’t realize he only spoke Russian at home. So the ‘Russian factor’ is real!
Thank you! That was perfect.
Haha, yes, I know that he was born in Staten Island and grew up in Detroit. However, his family only speaks Russian at home and the pun had to work somehow, right?
He didn’t want to be Staten the obvious.
Sorry Professor, the kid is from Staten Island.
Yes, they’re definitely not team building contracts. But if you think you’re in the cup window these types of deals might be necessary from time to time (certainly most teams do them).
It will be interesting to see how upcoming UFA deals compare to these two, as well as how the the two deal age.
Also, the Flyers are suddenly a very good team on paper. Seemingly with some more $$ left to spend after signing their remaining RFAs. This series of moves could work out very well for them IMO (acknowledging it was built on the back of Hextall’s cautious approach).
He didn’t want to be Russian to conclusions.
So much great chatter, sorry if I missed it but:
Do we know why McKenzie has ‘overlooked’ Kaliyev?
As you like. I don’t agree it’s ludicrous obviously.
Eberle scored 37 points last year at age 28. Hayes scored 55 at age 26. Eberle’s 76 point season is 8 years ago now. He’s only scored more than 51 once in the past 4 years.
Eberle’s deal pays him for his 29-33 year old seasons. Hayes for his 27-33 year old season, so there’s more prime years in the Hayes deal, at least theoretically.
If you think the Hayes deal is an overpay by 3M per year I don’t know what to say. A 27 year old UFA center who just scored 55 points and has averaged 46 per year over his career? And does other things well? All I can say is I very strongly disagree that 4M-4.5M is the market value.
Also, I never said that Hayes SHOULD be making 7.1M or that I think it’s a good deal, just that it’s not so crazy in the current climate. Soon to be 31 year old Carl Hagelin just got 2.75M X 4 yrs and has averaged 7 goals and 24 points per season over the past 3 yrs. The new normal.
Okay, he referenced the concern, but didn’t share it himself.
“Now the big talking point on Broberg and the thing that has people questioning him as an NHLer and thinking he’s one of the most likely players to bust amongst the top picks is his hockey IQ. I personally don’t think it’s a big issue, not elite in any way but not bad either, he knows his way around the ice, reads and reacts well. ”
https://lowetide.ca/2019/05/24/the-ushl-sweden-and-the-2019-draft/#comment-839708
FWIW I wouldn’t have done either of those contracts.
Definitely a fair point. But centers still have a little extra value (even to a team deep in Cs) all else being equal. And there is more to recommend Hayes over Eberle than just the position they play.
Gold. Hopefully our scouting department is on top of guys like this.
https://theathletic.com/1034392/2019/06/19/brown-five-chl-sleeper-prospects-for-the-2019-nhl-draft/
I’m sorry but that’s a ludicrous slant
Hayes highest number of goals is 25 but his average is only around 18 goals/yr and his career high of 54 points was only achieved last year.
Eberle has scored a high of 34 goals and 76 points but he’s hit 25 goals FIVE times and his career average is over 50 points/season. So his AVERAGE goal scoring and total points/season are equal to Hayes career highs.
The only reason their last 3 years are equal at 49 pt/yr is because Eberle just had his worst year at 34 pts to skew his results. Neither player will get much better but Eberle is much more likely to cover his contract than Hayes.
***
Saying Hayes is the new normal is like saying David Clarkson’s contract was the new normal a few years back. Being a center and killing penalties is no reason to overpay by nearly $3 million/year on a long term deal.
Eberle’s contract is $5.5M over 5 years. Hayes is $7.14M over 7 years. Generally you get a DISCOUNT for going longer on term.
SO what you’re arguing is that Hayes should be getting ~$7.5M over 5 years?
rickithebear,
N :kz LLP
Good point. But you also have to look at it in context with team makeup and cap. Philadelphia is deep at C with Couturier and Patrick as well as Giroux (initially a C) who has been one of the best C in the league when he played there. They shouldn’t really be desperate for a C who scores under 60 points. It’s a similar situation to Edmonton where McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins can all play top 6 C. If you find two players with relatively equal production, but one plays C and commands an extra $1.5M, I think going with a winger makes sense in that situation.
I’m not suggesting this is a good deal, but I’m not sure how out of whack it is with other stuff that’s going on. We may need to adjust to this being the new normal.
Looking just at Eberle as a comp, 5.5M vs 7.1M.
Both have averaged 49 points per season over the past 3 years
Hayes is 2 years younger (shy by a week)
Hayes is a C
Hayes kills penalties
If I was forced to pick between the two deals I’d likely go with Hayes.
The other inaccuracy is that it becomes a no move clause with a modified no trade clause with 10 team trade list this summer, and a1 5 team trade list next summer. Small but significant difference.
PHEW!!
Kidding, sort of. I like Broberg a lot, but I’m fairly certain there will be better players – and better fits – available at 008. If we had another pick mid-teens or so, I wouldn’t have a problem with using that to select Broberg (although I’d likely go for Kaliyev / Tomasino at that spot myself).
Nugent-Bowman wrote:
Russell’s no-movement clause turned into a modified no-trade clause this month; he can now be dealt to 10 teams of his choosing. Russell was the No. 4 defenceman and was third in the NHL with 185 blocked shots. But he doesn’t provide much offence for the $4-million AAV he pulls in and his 45.09 Corsi For percentage isn’t great.
Response from the comments:
I’m no Russell fan, but at least be accurate in your writing. In the past 2 seasons combined, 5 Oilers defensemen played over 1000 5v5 minutes, here’s how they ranked by P/60:
1. Nurse 0.99
2. Benning 0.86
3. Russell 0.73
4. Larsson 0.61
5. Klefbom 0.61
So you call out Russell for not providing enough offense to justify his pay, and yet he actually provides MORE offense than Klefbom at LESS pay. Where does that leave Oscar?
I’m not arguing that Russell is better than or more valuable than Klefbom, just putting his offensive output into perspective. Why slag a guy for not putting up points when he’s actually doing okay?
Pronman on Krebs: “I watched him a lot. He’s not dynamic in terms of speed or skill. He’s an awesome player, the vision is elite and he competes hard but he’s not a game breaker.”
Holland has also stressed that he isn’t going to be trading the #8 pick, so I don’t think he’s going to be trading down for Broberg either (a lot of you including Lowetide himself have suggested a trade down).
We aren’t getting Broberg, and it’s okay. Breathe in, and out.
Do the Jets have a late 1st available? We just might be able to accommodate…
Beecher reminds me somewhat of Couturier, it might take him a while to find his offensive game at the NHL level, but it’ll come. In the meantime he’s a world class defensive center.
Haha, there was something yesterday in the comment section of one of theathletic.com articles, I’ll see if I can find it and post it here.
No, SP said Broberg was fairly certain to become a 4D minimum. The uncertainty is whether he could become a 2D.
16-17 oilers 125 fwd depth.
Mcdavid 2.18
Draisaitl 1.89
Maroon 1.42
Lucic 1.38
Eberle 1.28
RNH 1.15
Letestu .99
Increadable goal scoring winger depth
4 of our 5 best top 125 fwds.
Draisaitl 2.93
Ehlers 1.59
Erickson 1.20 (27gm with Mcdavid)
Chiasson 1.20 (27 gm with Mcdavid)
Kassian 1.20 (27 gm with Mcdavid)
Gagner .92
Gets our winger top 125 production depth a real good start
I think he’s primarily a playmaker and therefore not a big need for Edmonton. The depth chart is full of playmakers already. I know it’s odd to call a 51 goal scorer a playmaker, but Draisaitl’s best tools are passing. Nugent-Hopkins has improved his shot and release and thus his scoring as well, but is more of a setup man, than a sniper. I want a goal scorer at #8.
Secondly, the USNTDP is such a strange animal. It’s an all-star team that plays together all year with great coaches and training and facilities. Even when playing against NCAA, I think they have a distinct advantage. As for their USHL numbers, they don’t really outshine the CHL players, except Turcotte. Hughes was 5th on his own team in 5v5 Primary Points/60. It gets even more exaggerated for 2nd, 3rd and 4th line players. Their competition goes way down but they’re still playing with all-star linemates no matter where they are in the depth chart. Imagine the Team Canada Hlinka-Gretzky team playing against the CHL teams all year long, and those CHL teams wouldn’t have their top players (they’d be on Team Canada). How many points would Cozens, Dach, Tomasino, Newhook, Krebs get in that situation? It would be insane.
So I’m very wary of USNTDP players. I think they all should be drafted a bit lower than many are saying. Look at the draft+1 seasons of Wahlstrom and Farabee. They don’t look like sure things 1 year later and they were all the rage last year.
A Nick ehlers is one our biggest needs.f
Add to top 125 fwd (16G 39P) depth to our cup core roster.
Ehlers averaged equal to 1.59 top125 Fwds per season over last 3 seasons.
27G 57P
An ideal Eberle replacement.
Trading Klefbom for a top 125 forward improves our cup core roster.
By adding to our top 125 depth and
Eliminating GA def destroying rovering.
Philadelphia added
2 historical top 10 1st comp HD Dmen 2 of 3or4 needed HD dmen cup core depth.
Niskanen
Braun
Added K Hayes equal to 1.15 top 125 fwds per season last 3 seasons.
17G 49P
Oilers 125 ranks Last year
I build in the standard % difference in efficiency between goals and avg of 1st and 2nd assists.
To get a true top 125 fwd production value from day 1 of my cup core roster.
It is a Critical high % multivariable affects.
Draisaitl 2.93 top 125 fwds
Mcdavid 2.75 top 125 fwds
RNH 1.76 top 125 fwds
Chaisson 1.20 top 125 fwds more value than Hayes 3 year avg. for 1M
Kassian .82 top 125 fwds
I want Chaisson & Kassian getting half of Mcdavids RW side.
We end up with 2 K. Hayes level of results for 3-4M.
+1 What do you think of Trevor Zegras? Holland has seen the USHL guys alot.
Listening to Jets podcast. Sounds like they’re trying to resign Myers. I really don’t think it makes sense. I would rather trade for Russell and play him at 2RD for two years at $4 mill than sign Myers for six years at $6 mill plus.
Sure, why not.
Good news is MacKenzie has Beecher at #41. Meaning he might still be available and won’t be considered a reach for Edmonton. Like a few others on here, I think Cozens and Beecher would be my favorite scenario. Physical, fast, goal scorers with a great defensive game. Grant McCagg’s guide has a section where he polls scouts for the best in certain attributes. The top two defensive forwards in the draft? Cozens and Beecher. Beecher was also polled as the 5th best skater in the draft. Pronman has them in the 6-21 range in skating and in the 3-12 range for their physical game. You want players who can keep up with McDavid, improve the team’s goal differential, pressure other teams and score? They seem like your best bets. Look how important Bergeron and O’Rielly were this year, or Datsyuk, Kopitar and Toews in other years. That’s who I want.
McCagg’s Poll for Best Defensive Forward:
“A 6-3 center who can win key draws,
block passing lanes with his wingspan,
skate back to cover any opponent
thanks to his speed, and position himself
well in his own zone is a valuable
weapon defensively. Cozens checks off
all of those boxes, and was the unanimous
choice.”
Yup, that’s one I was thinking of as well when I wrote it.
Reja,
Boldy an excellent fit for the Oilers.
So if all this should come to pass, do I still get the kiss? Asking for myself, not a friend.
I think Al might be onto something with Kaliyev. First choice is Caufield, but would be happy with Kaliyev.
Nikita Nikitin says hello.
Maybe it’s a good thing all our forwards are crap with Hayes getting that contract all it would take is a couple of offer sheets and most of the GM’s would be in a Tizzy.
Literally, Fletcher should have just taken $12 million and offer sheeted Mitch Marner instead of overpaying Hayes
So bonkers. That’s why trading for negotiating rights never works. As soon as you do that, the player has ALL the leverage. The GM practically has to sign him to save face for giving up even a low round pick. Their agents know this and can turn the screws.
Such a weird move. Hayes isn’t that unique or elite that you give up a pick not knowing if he’s even slightly interested and then pay him 7.14 for 7 years with 55 points being his best season at 27. I bet nobody, including Chuck Fletcher, would have paid that much on the open market in July.
EDIT: Matt Cane’s $5,877,330.60 x 6 years estimate is much more reasonable and yet that still seems a bit high to me.
Holland is having fun playing the field no way he takes him at 8
All the good and tough choices Hextall had to make pissed away in a couple of days it’s baffling. Hextall must have gotten into it with the owner because the way I see it he was setting them up for many years to come. It’s Bizarre
Well… sometimes the easy narrative fits (says the fan of the team that has a coke machine collection in the basement).
Victoria Oil,
Great minds and all that jazz
Is Chiarelli the Flyers new GM? They made a bad trade with Gudas for Niskanen, they overpaid for Braun and now they’ve made a ridiculous overpay for Kevin Hayes.
If a 32 year-old Braun can fetch a 2nd and a 3rd with his $3.8 million cap hit, we should be able to trade Russell for a bag of pucks with no money retained, no?
Nick DeSouza @NickDeSouza_
Kevin Hayes is 26 with zero career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 7.14M x 7 years
William Nylander is 23 with two career 60+ point seasons: Gets paid 6.92 x 6 years
Absolutely bonkers deal for Hayes. Philly bought out Andy MacDonald this week only to grab another anchor… maybe they hired Chiarelli while we weren’t looking?
If we take Bob’s ranking as the middle of the range of where scouts have him placed… that means he’s ranked anywhere from 7.5 – 22.5, with most scouts clumping much nearer Bob’s rank.
Taking him at 8 wouldn’t be off the board, but very few scouts would agree with it… If we assume that with enough scouts, the curve described by their rankings is normally distributed or close enough to it, then picking him at 8 has to be at least two standard deviations from the mean, if not three.
So best case scenario, 5 percent of all scouts would agree with taking him at 8. And it could be as low as .15 percent.
Hats off to the scout who talked to Guy Flaming and said… “would be the most Oiler pick ever”.
Because this truly would be smartest man in the room syndrome.
I cannot believe the rumour is actually true. Pundits are thinking Holland is looking for the next Lidstrom. Never doubt a pundit’s propensity to rely on an easy narrative. Saves on actual thinking. Which, if they were good at, would mean they’d be working in Hockey, not on Hockey.
Yep. I prefer Seider and Soderstrom to Broberg. Holland, if this is your ninja way, trade down. Please.
Funny Munny!