Harvest Moon 2019

by Lowetide

These are not your Dad’s Edmonton Oilers. The organization that was built on the back of boys from Ontario and the west drafted not a one player from the OHL or WHL this weekend. Incredible.

LOWETIDE PROJECTED WEEKEND

First round, No. 8 overall — RC Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). NHLE: 29.4

Second round, No. 38 overall —  R Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SHL). NHLE: 28.3

Third round, No. 85 overall —  LC Blake Murray, Sudbury Wolves (OHL).  NHLE: 19.0

Fourth round, No. 100 overall —  LD Mattias Norlinder, MoDo (Allsvenskan). NHLE: 12.7

Sixth round, No. 162 overall —  L Daniil Gutik, Yaroslavl (MHL). NHLE: 5.33

Seventh round, No. 193 overall —  R Kirill Slepets, Lokomotiv (KHL). NHLE: 15.6

KEN HOLLAND’S WEEKEND

First round, No. 8 overall — LHD Philip Broberg, AIK (Allsvenskan). NHLE: 9.2

Second round, No. 38 overall — RHC Raphael Lavoie, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). NHLE: 23.7

Third round, No. 85 overall — G Ilya Konovalov, Lokotmotiv Yaroslavl (KHL). SP: .930.

Fourth round, No. 100 overall — LW Matej Blumel, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). NHLE: 22.9

Sixth round, No. 162 overall — LHC Tomas Mazura, Kimball Union (USHS). NHLE: 9.6

Seventh round No. 193 overall — LHC Maxim Denezhkin, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (MHL). NHLE: 19.3

HARVEST MOON 2019

Based on my observation of these Oilers over many years, I do think Ken Holland impacted this draft. I’m not suggesting the individual players were hand picked by him, but rather the draft landed in unusual places and didn’t land in traditional spots. Two KHL picks, a Swede in the first round and no OHL, no WHL? I don’t think this is in line with traditional Oilers dogma. That isn’t a bad thing.

No. 8 overall — LHD Philip Broberg, AIK (Allsvenskan). NHLE: 9.2. Holland’s Oilers doubled down on an area of strength and bet on Broberg being the best available. He is a fantastically mobile defenseman and the offense is more promising than the NHLE suggests. I won’t make much sense in saying this, but I believe he’s closer to Oscar Klefbom in offensive ability and closer to Darnell Nurse in style. We’re going to have to let this young man tell us who he is, beginning this winter.

No. 38 overall — RHC Raphael Lavoie, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). NHLE: 23.7. The strongest selection of day two, Lavoie is a legit scoring forward who will probably play the wing as a pro. He also began a theme on the day among forwards: He has a fine shot and uses it a lot. Lacks consistency because teenager. This has a chance to be the best second round pick in a nice string of them (Benson, McLeod) over recent summers. Bob Green said there were several players at this number they liked, but were happy to get Lavoie.

No. 85 overall G Ilya Konovalov, Lokotmotiv Yaroslavl (KHL). SP: .930. I had to think about this pick for some time. It’s at a place where teams (rightly) choose prospects from secondary leagues, so I can’t object to the idea. As well, the numbers and scouting reports are eye popping. Look, the Oilers have spent picks in this area on men like Matt Cairns in recent years. I’ve decided this was an astute pick. He turns 21 in July.

No. 100 overall LW Matej Blumel, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). NHLE: 22.9. He’s an interesting pick, but a little shy of being an inspired one. He’s a shooter, works hard and has some range of abilities. I’m unsure that his offense is special and that will be the thing we track with Blumel.

No. 162 overall LHC Tomas Mazura, Kimball Union (USHS). NHLE: 9.6. There wasn’t much online, so I reached out to someone in the know. Here’s what I got: Very skilled- a top prep player for his all-around offensive package/upside. Comes from top program. Raw and will take time to develop/fill out but had a lot of pre-draft buzz.

No. 193 overall — LHC Maxim Denezhkin, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (MHL). NHLE: 19.3. The thing about drafting Russians is that you can get excellent value because not every team does it. Corey Pronman had him as a mid-fourth and that’s a damned good player at this spot. Two-way center with enough skill to be considered a bona fide NHL prospect.

Assessment

I’ve always said trust your board, and it looks like the Oilers did just that on the weekend. Despite clear anger from the fan base, management proceeded as they meant to go. Will it work? Was it the right call? Time will tell. The issues for the coming season on the wing remain, but that wasn’t going to change by drafting Cole Caufield this weekend.

Among the concerns I have tonight, only one is worth mentioning. I think this Oilers draft would have benefited from the insight an analytics department might have provided. Even if that department helps only once per draft, I think that improves Edmonton’s chances of beating the odds.

Impact players

The success of this draft will ride on the first two selections. Oilers fans aren’t going to work up a massive lather over the final four picks if they don’t cash, but the top two men are vital to success.

I like the courage of convictions shown by the Holland Oilers, I like that they paid no attention to the rage over the possibility of the Broberg pick. It shows maturity by the organization, and is a massive improvement from 2012 when entire floors of hotels were rented because higher ups worried about fan opinion.

This is better. Make the evaluation, come to a conclusion, make the pick, and own it. We wait.

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Derek

Thanks for another year of fantastic draft coverage LT.

Infidels

I certainly don’t miss the late round walkabouts

Halfwise

I don’t get worked up about what Oiler management does or doesn’t do any more. Two decades of mostly futility will do that to a former season ticket holder.

But I do appreciate our host’s insights and dedication. He keeps me interested in the Oilers when the Oilers themselves can’t.

So thank you, LT, for this place and for the Athletic, which has interest for me only because you are there.

Cheers to all.

chrisco stu

Thank you for everything Lowetide! Excellent work, enjoy your summer!

Professor Q

I think this was excellent. We’ll see how the prospects from the last 4 years show up during the Summer camps and next year.

Once again, thank you to Lowetide for the space and the community.

Reja

Love you and the summary Lowetide makes me proud to be a Oiler Fan. I was screaming zegras and Lavoie at the TV. I’m sure glad the Flames didn’t pick Lavoie and he made it to us I love his style of play and I think he’s going to be a fan favourite.

Golden Moment

Lowetide: You were beyond excellent this ‘Draft’ year: Thank you for your dedication to the task at hand and your professionalism in reporting on the players selected.

All of your readers fully appreciate the quality of your work.

BG19

Thank you so much for your diligent detailed work! I’ve followed your site for years and can’t believe the effort you place in ranking all of the prospects. Thank you, again!!!!

Reja

Two players on the locomotive to Siberia what are the odds.

adamjames2

Thanks for the fantastic coverage LT! The more I’ve read about Broberg the more optimistic I am. Seems like a home run swing to me.. Guess we’ll wait and see if it fouls out or not.

OriginalPouzar

I think Holland read the first 40 picks of the draft wonderfully.

Its clear that he and his team had Broberg as a hard target BPA – they know the organization needs forwards, now and in the future, they know the organization is deep at LD prospects and they know the fans generally wanted a forward. The fact they still picked the young LD shows just how much they wanted this player.

It became clear as the round went on that trading down wasn’t an option if they wanted that player and I think it became clear to Holland that there was going to be a surprising run on d-men in the first round and some high skill/potential/talent forwards, 1st round talent forwards, were going to drop to the 2nd round and he knew he was going to get a strong forward prospect at 38.

I remember watching Lavoie in the Q playoffs and in the Memorial Cup and wondering why he wasn’t ranked in the top 10. Some of the plays he made were unreal. Love that pick and I’m stocked with the Broberg/Lavoie combo.

Importantly, Holland has shown to be true to his word that, while, yes, the goal is playoffs this year, the ultimate goal is to build a contender for the cup and he won’t make moves that jeopardize the ultimate goal for immediate help.

I like his vision for the team, it seems to line up with mine, a bit more of a slow play than most want or are willing to accept.

I’m happy – the Lavoie pick really solidified a solid top 2 picks – read together.

OriginalPouzar

Cap confirmed at $81.5M

We just saw how expensive cap space became to acquire with the Marleau and Subban deals and I don’t think Holland will pay the price to dispose of anchors. Lucic is untradeable for cap space – the cost would be egregious.

There seems to be interest in Russell the player so that remains a hope for cap space.

Holland clearly has shown his paramountcy of the ultimate goal (building a cup contender) over the immediate expectation of playoffs and I think it’s clear he won’t pay the market prices for cap space.

On the other hand, I wonder if this leads him to a buyout that he was contemplating. There are a few days left. I really hope not – no one with term at least and no legit NHL players (Sekera for example).

OriginalPouzar

Would the Lavoie pick have any impact on sending Safin back to Halifax for an over-age year.

I’m generally against over-age years if we think the prospect is “real”, however Safin essentially lost the entire year last year and maybe he gain regain something back in the Q vs. turning pro? I think he may end up in the ECHL to start if he does turn pro.

Mr DeBakey

When post-draft prospect lists come out, the most recent crop of picks tend to be ranked fairly high against previous years’ picks.

This year is interesting.

Where does Broberg rank against Jones, Samorukov and Bouchard?
Where does a fast, poor hockey sense guy slot in?

Behind the other 3, I’m guessing.

McSorley33

Outstanding coverage as usual LT.

For the second year in a row, we made an Excellent 2nd round pick.

Thank you Ottawa and Carolina.

The left wing and right wing prospect depth chart above say it all.

God Speed Connor.

jonrmcleod

Didn’t you write a few days ago about keeping an eye on Button’s list? The first two picks were good value according to Craig’s list.

Doug McLachlan

Derek,

Can’t say this enough. Always enjoy your draft work LT. Thanks.

jonrmcleod

Mr DeBakey,

I’d say he’d be no lower than second.

OriginalPouzar

Mr DeBakey:
When post-draft prospect lists come out, the most recent crop of picks tend to be ranked fairly high against previous years’ picks.

This year is interesting.

Where does Broberg rank against Jones, Samorukov and Bouchard?
Where does a fast, poor hockey sense guy slot in?

Behind the other 3, I’m guessing.

Sure, he’s ranked behind Jones now but only because Jones is 4 years post draft and two years of post CHL pro hockey.

Broberg is about 4 tiers above Jones as far as a prospect goes if we aren’t talking about timeline.

I would also put him in the same tier as Bouchard which is ahead of Samorukov which is ahead of Jones. I do think that the Samorukov has the “potential” to be a legit 1L and his “potential” is higher than Bouchard (not offensively but overall) but that’s an unlikely hit.

Oil2Oilers

Draft done, with no obvious screw ups onto free agency!

I have three major free agent targets;

GMoney
Micheal Parkatti
Jeff Krushell

For $500K/year each on a three year term with a $2 million dollar budget to fill out the analytics and sports finance department.

Return on investment would be significantly over $10M over 3 years in avoiding stupid contracts. Would also likely lead to more wins, merchandise sales and home playoff games.

Ryan

We live in interesting times.

leadfarmer

So how are the Holland trusting his Red wings scouts over the Oil conspiracy theorists justifying Gretzky’s signature of 3rd round goalie, mid round overager

digger50

I do hope Broberg pans out, he has the tools as they say. I hope Holland can understand the fan base reaction, they have had hopes dashed before.

I cannot help but look at the prospect list and wonder how I’d feel if zegras was listed as an upcoming center.

It looks like it may be Connor, Leon and Zack for some time. The pressure to find skilled wingers just doubled. It could easily be Klefbom out. Or maybe Holland has something good up his sleeve.

Really enjoyable draft regardless of picks just due to all of Your work LT and so many others who put in so much effort into the draft.

Thank you

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
So how are the Holland trusting his Red wings scouts over the Oil conspiracy theorists justifying Gretzky’s signature of 3rd round goalie, mid round overager

Explain please?

I think I like the fact that the goalie is a bit older, in his fourth year of eligibility. Goalies often/generally take longer than even d-men – he’s a few years further developed and excelling in a good pro league.

Of course, never trust goalie stats in the KHL…..

digger50

leadfarmer:
So how are the Holland trusting his Red wings scouts over the Oil conspiracy theorists justifying Gretzky’s signature of 3rd round goalie, mid round overager

Come on, if you can’t see the influence here it’s your problem. Let it go.

v4ance

Toronto had to package a 1st rounder to ditch Marleau’s contract and with the rumored pending deals to Kapanen and Johnsson totalling around $7 million, the Leafs would need at least $5 million to re-sign Marner to his ask of $11 million. The Leafs would still need a couple of cheap wingers to fill out their roster past those RFA signings.

Looking at Kadri’s $4.5 million and Brown’s $2.1 million cap hits, maybe offer Jesse Puljujarvi and Colby Cave as the cheap forwards and throw in a 4th rounder or some other pick to round out the offer to help them shed salary?

On our back end, after the July 1st bonus is paid, send Lucic out with a 2nd rounder with no salary retained to any team that will take his $6 million cap hit off our hands?

Too crazy?

Reja

digger50:
I do hope Broberg pans out, he has the tools as they say. I hope Holland can understand the fan base reaction, they have had hopes dashed before.

I cannot help but look at the prospect list and wonder how I’d feel if zegras was listed as an upcoming center.

It looks like it may be Connor, Leon and Zack for some time. The pressure to find skilled wingers just doubled. It could easily be Klefbom out. Or maybe Holland has something good up his sleeve.

Really enjoyable draft regardless of picks just due to all of Your work LT and so many others who put in so much effort into the draft.

Thank you

Bang Bang on. For me whatever that’s worth that hurt letting Zegras slide we will find out in short time and get to view close up being that the Fuking Ducks are in the same division.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Explain please?

I think I like the fact that the goalie is a bit older, in his fourth year of eligibility.Goalies often/generally take longer than even d-men – he’s a few years further developed and excelling in a good pro league.

Of course, never trust goalie stats in the KHL…..

Some flat earthers had a theory on here yesterday that Holland completely ignored his Oilers scouts and drafted according to his Red wings scouts draft board
And then we got Gretzky’s patented 3rd round goalie pick and 4th round overager
Hard to keep that idea going when you tire is blown

leadfarmer

digger50: Come on, if you can’t see the influence here it’s your problem. Let it go.

What influence?
Gretzky has clearly valued size over other aspects as he drafted a 6’3 defenseman in almost identical spots in consecutive rounds
If you stare at something long enough everything becomes suspicious
This draft has Gretzky’s signature on it because it looks like his previous drafts

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar:
Cap confirmed at $81.5M

We just saw how expensive cap space became to acquire with the Marleau and Subban deals and I don’t think Holland will pay the price to dispose of anchors. Lucic is untradeable for cap space – the cost would be egregious.

There seems to be interest in Russell the player so that remains a hope for cap space.

Holland clearly has shown his paramountcy of the ultimate goal (building a cup contender) over the immediate expectation of playoffs and I think it’s clear he won’t pay the market prices for cap space.

On the other hand, I wonder if this leads him to a buyout that he was contemplating. There are a few days left. I really hope not – no one with term at least and no legit NHL players (Sekera for example).

The cup is coming but is going to take longer than we want for it to get here … next year is likely to be brutal.

ashley

Interesting draft.

I don’t think Holland and company are as enamoured with Klefbom as most of us here in the LT community. I don’t think they see him as a first pairing Dman.

For years his defensive gaffes were explained away by youth which can’t really be used anymore. His ability to move the puck and score is average yet he is gifted 1PP and McDavid time. I think he is an ok second pair dman who needs a stable stay at home partner to have success.

I think he gets traded.

godot10

I hope our Russian Konovalov has a better fate than the one in The Hunt for Red October.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zJEzgTZbx8

Reja

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: The cup is coming but is going to take longer than we want for it to get here … next year is likely to be brutal.

Leon And McDavid say otherwise.

Munny

Kudos LT for yet another wonderful year covering the draft. And to all the commenters here, who made the draft itself such an entertaining event.

Lavoie is my only real concern. Sort of a cross between Benoit Pouliot and Kassian, without the fighting/physicality. Not as fast as Kass, but has better hands. Inconsistent effort issues, doesn’t use his big body enough, hockey sense issues, can’t really fake you out of your boots, but can use his reach to beat you and his size to protect the puck. Nice shot, passing, pretty good hands overall. Passionate, but it can lead to mistakes and undisciplined penalties. Goes to the net well. Likes to be a leader/heart guy. …Plenty to work with there, we’ll see how it turns out. Enough tools he should be able to find a role if sheer offense doesn’t translate to the Bigs.

I think he was value where they took him, so I’m by no means upset, but I also think there’s reasons why he was available there too.

Also interesting that twice in a single draft, the Oilers took teammates from Europe. And zigzagged across the continent while avoiding Finland and Lehto. Are both attributable to The Pujo Effect?

The NHL seems to now value consistency of effort (both on and off the ice) more than size, which is a massive change in how the League wind blows. The biggest droppers… Kaliyev, Lavoie, Murray, all had the effort knock but good size. And the League punishing bad skating too, guys like Brink and Legare dropping.

All-in-all a decent draft that could bring a top pairing Dman and a middle 6 role player… and if Konovalov turns into a starter, it’s an absolute home run draft.

v4ance

Not liking the fact that LA’s draft was quietly efficeient and competent. Their rebuild will be over before the Oilers :p

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Congrats LT: this is the most wonderful part of your year. I hope you have some Red Wine and a nice meal this evening. I just marinated some veggies mostly asparagus and slapped that on the Q amd had some steaks and a quiet evening with the growing family

– I don’t like the “coincidence “ of 2 players that drafted to play with MacT. I just wish they moved on

– Wished they went for more speedsters as well

– I also didn’t like that ‘brah was telegraphed weeks ago.

– Your bang on with no analytical team. But first two locks are like last year : a toolsy D and a F that slipped from first round and didn’t have a killer year.

– Anyway good luck amd will be interesting to see rest of off-season

GOILERS

Reja

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: The cup is coming but is going to take longer than we want for it to get here … next year is likely to be brutal.

If you try to slow fuk Leon Connor Rnh you’ll lose them.

dustrock

Thank you very much for all your hard work yesterday today and throughout the year LT.

The draft has become one of my very favourite things about the NHL and the debate and guesstimating takes up too much of my work I mean spare time.

This is the first place I come to for insight and the last place I post my more collected thoughts.

Twitter is where I can rant and rave in 140 characters.

My thanks to the other frequent posters on here as well, it’s almost always a pleasure, ladies and germs, and always, I learn something on this site about hockey and something about a completely unrelated topic.

All the posters who drill down and actually do math and analysis on NHL players and prospects and share it with us without thought of reward, know that your efforts are highly appreciated and are definitely noticed.

The last 24 hours was really the start of the Holland Era. We’re starting to see new flora and fauna emerge and we have to try to fit it into established categories. An exciting time to be a fan.

Woodguy v2.0

Proman’s grades for the Oiler’s draft:

https://theathletic.com/1024886/2019/06/22/grading-the-edmonton-oilers-2019-draft-class/

Gives them a B

dustrock

Holland said he saw Caufield 50 times I think, as they play close to where he was in Detroit.

And he didn’t pick him or Zegras.

That’s interesting to me.

Now 24 hours later after the Broberg pick and trying to parse the telegraphing of the pick, I wonder if he knew Detroit was considering a d-man and started pumping Broberg’s tires, thinking Buffalo grabs Zegras and that way he can draft Cozens.

To have the option of Zegras, Boldy and Caufield and not picking any of them is significant to me.

He is enamoured enough with Broberg to pick him if Dach or Cozens didn’t fall.

That’s the best I can figure.

godot10

My list was Byram, Cozens, Krebs, Dach. Three gone and the 4th blew his Achilles.

I saw a couple of Broberg’s games at the Hlinka. He was the most watchable player on the ice. Who the hell is #4? First lookup on the roster sheet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGFToiLtXro
But then until the U-18s, the reports back were meh.

My only worry is the OIlers have demonstrated incompetence in developing these kinds of players. The upside potential is as high as anybody in the draft.

I hope they leave him in Sweden for two years. Although Hamilton might not be a horrible idea.

I was Team Not Caufield and wasn’t particularly high on the Americans.

It would have been interesting if Cozens and Broberg were both on the board.

The salary cap constraints are impacting relative value in the draft. It pushed the D and goaltenders up. D and G are harder to find via free agency and trade. Forwards are a dime a dozen. It was reflected in this draft.

godot10

v4ance:
Not liking the fact that LA’s draft was quietly efficeient and competent.Their rebuild will be over before the Oilers:p

#ThoroughlyMediocreCoach

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Reja: Leon And McDavid say otherwise.

They said otherwise last year too … money talks and bullshit walks. They can’t do it alone.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

godot10: #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach

And we can all be thankful for that. Too bad we can’t clone Todd so he can be made available for any new coaching vacancy that comes up around the league.

Munny

dustrock,

Very well put, and ditto.

Gret99zky

How much does Broberg make playing for Skellefteå AIK? Is it realistic to expect him to come over and play in Hamilton next year? What kind of pay cut can he expect?

Will Holland have to make a deal with Broberg’s agent (ala Puljujärvi) in order for him to develop in North America on the small ice?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Reja: If you try to slow fuk Leon Connor Rnh you’ll lose them.

Not sure where you have been these last several years but each is in the middle/latter stages of being “slow fucked” as you put it. Pretty sure they are acutely aware of it.

OriginalPouzar

v4ance:
Toronto had to package a 1st rounder to ditch Marleau’s contract and with the rumored pending deals to Kapanen and Johnsson totalling around $7 million, the Leafs would need at least $5 million to re-sign Marner to his ask of $11 million. The Leafs would still need a couple of cheap wingers to fill out their roster past those RFA signings.

Looking at Kadri’s $4.5 million and Brown’s $2.1 million cap hits, maybe offer Jesse Puljujarvi and Colby Cave as the cheap forwards and throw in a 4th rounder or some other pick to round out the offer to help them shed salary?

On our back end, after the July 1st bonus is paid, send Lucic out with a 2nd rounder with no salary retained to any team that will take his $6 million cap hit off our hands?

Too crazy?

Yes, crazy, considering the Leafs had to give up a first for a team to take Marleau who is WAY better than Lucic and has a WAAAAAAAAY better contract that Lucic – A 1st rounder to get rid of 1 year of $6M.

No team is taking Lucic’s contract without giving an almost equally one back (i.e. Eriksson) with a sweetener.

The cost for cap space today was insane.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar: Yes, crazy, considering the Leafs had to give up a first for a team to take Marleau who is WAY better than Lucic and has a WAAAAAAAAY better contract that Lucic – A 1st rounder to get rid of 1 year of $6M.

No team is taking Lucic’s contract without giving an almost equally one back (i.e. Eriksson) with a sweetener.

The cost for cap space today was insane.

The only hope there is a ‘Hossa’ … unlikely but not impossible.

itsaleaf

I know we have to wait 5 years, but I was unimpressed with Holland’s first draft.
There was too much talent and too much need elsewhere to take Broberg at 8. If he turns out to be Lidstrom, then I will gladly admit I’m wrong.
Outside of the 2nd rounder, there were many more skilled options over the players they took.

Hard to be excited by a bunch of overager longshots