Lucky Star

by Lowetide

When the Edmonton Oilers selected Philip Broberg at No. 8 overall on Friday night, it set off a countdown to selection No. 38. Depending on how you count these things, by the end of the first round there were 6-10 legit scoring forwards still on the board. Only two (Arthur Kaliyev and Bobby Brink) went in the second round before Edmonton selected Raphael Lavoie, and as it turned out the team could have picked any of Nick Robertson, Egor Afanasyev, Nils Hoglander and several others.

Ken Holland, Keith Gretzky and Bob Green didn’t see the draft as “Byram and then a bunch of guys” on defense. The management and scouting staff valued Broberg above the substantial skill wingers — to the point where Edmonton was willing to risk getting a quality scoring forward with either of the first two picks. That’s the story, morning glory. That’s the bet Edmonton made.

I think it’s a tell. I believe it’s an indication about direction. Unlike the 1980’s Oilers, the current team is going to try to win championships the old fashioned way: Suppressing opposition offense.

Now that the future has been addressed, what about the 2019-20 team?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
  • New Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
  • New Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
  • Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
  • Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanQ&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role

THE WHO, BY NUMBERS

Drafting Lavoie was either a brilliant stroke of luck, truly inspired — or both. I had him inside the first round, and he arrives to a depth chart badly in need of a shooter. He posted 206 shots in 62 games, 3.32 shots per game. If you look at the Oilers current depth chart on right wing (Lavoie is a center but I’m counting him as a wing), he projects as a strong option a couple of years down the line.

Remember in viewing these NHL equivalencies that I haven’t adjusted for age. Also important to note the lack of shooters on the depth chart. Lavoie was a major addition, added late in the game in terms of available forwards. What’s that old line about having to be lucky to be good? Yes.

Holland: “We have to get deeper up front. Certainly we need a goaltender and certainly those are the most important things for the next 10 days.” Source

TRADES

No trades yet, Jesse Puljujarvi and Milan Lucic remain on the roster, Matt Benning too. It sounded like Darnell Nurse was the ask during portions of the draft window, likely a non-starter with Ken Holland. If trades can’t be made, expect free agency to be the prime method to address need.

GOALIE OPTIONS

G Mike Smith. This is a possibility. Smith’s regular season even strength SP (.907) was poor but his playoff SP in the same discipline was .938 in five games. He is 37.

G Curtis McElhinney. Although he’s 36 and has posted a journeyman’s career, sometimes goalies go on runs of several years later on. He was rock solid in goal in 2018-19.

G Petr Mrazek. He’s 27, young for the group, but Holland knows him and in 40 games a year ago, Mrazek posted a .914SP.

G Brian Elliott. My personal choice, he posted a .907SP a year ago and is durable and capable of carrying a team on significant winning streaks. He is 34.

OPTIONS AT FORWARD/DEFENSE

1 RW Brett Connolly. He can win battles, has skill and can play up and down the lineup.

2 LW Tyler Ennis. He shouldn’t cost a lot, brings speed and skill. There’s no downside to this acquisition.

3 R Joonas Donskoi. Speedy and skilled, he can play either wing and shouldn’t cost the moon. I expect SJS will sign him but Donskoi would be a fine addition.

4 L Michael Ferland. Holland likes aggressive, rugged wingers who can score. I think he might be a target.

5 L Brandon Tanev. I like his two-way play and he might be a bargain (should be available later day one or day two).

6 R Alex Chiasson. He’s an attractive player for the Oilers, depending on price. I’m fine with him as an addition but would like a more certain scorer.

7 LC Oscar Linbderg. He can play center or wing, has enough skill to project onto the third line, maybe higher in a pinch. Not famous, which is good.

8 L Brandon Pirri. Similar to Ennis, I don’t think he makes it to free agency while also believing he’s a terrific fit for the Oilers.

9 RD Colin Miller. Puck moving defender fits a need, although he’s coming off a mediocre season.

10 R Connor Brown. I think there’s a good chance he’s an Oiler by September.

BUYOUTS

With the cap now at $81.5 million for next season, we could see a buyout. Here are the savings for the coming season:

Kris Russell $3.083 million

Andrej Sekera $3.0 million

Milan Lucic $2.375 million

Sam Gagner $2.133 million

Brandon Manning $1.33 million

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Munny

OriginalPouzar: I am not projecting a 20 year old KHL goalie in to the NHL

Fortunately our GM does, otherwise he would not have spent a 3rd rounder on him.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: That is my opinion and it is not wrong as it is an opinion.

Lol… of course from my point of view it is wrong. You are stating your opinion in the first place because you think my opinion is wrong. C’mon man, call a spade a spade. It’s okay to disagree.

OriginalPouzar

That is my opinion and it is not wrong as it is an opinion.

I would state the Lagesson is more likely to have an NHL career than this goalie. I am not projecting a 20 year old KHL goalie in to the NHL – I hope he does make it but that is far far far from a foregone conclusion.

I project Lagesson more than a “likely journeyman” and I see him as having a solid chance at becoming a 22 minute 2LD.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: I would argue the main person missing from that list is Lagesson.

Of course you would, but you would be wrong. You don’t put a defenseman whose career is likely to be journeyman–if he makes it–ahead a potential #1 goalie.

From his pair of tweets, it looks like Stauffer had him 11 or 12, behind Maksimov and Marody. That was proper slotting. At best you could argue flip Maksi for Lagesson. But with Kona on the list, that would still place Lagesson outside the top 10.

Ryan

Hot Eire: Would be a potentially nice pick up for the oil if true.

Gotta say that apart from that one great summer, treenasoil rumours have stayed just that….rumours.

Leskinen is just throwing a name at the wall to see if it sticks.

He’s been rumoured to be interested in making the move to the NHL already.

Obviously, we have job openings on the wings.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/04/several-liiga-champions-looking-to-make-nhl-jump.html

oilersfan

Pescador,

He is a tweeter between top six and third line

The cap is $1.5 million lower than expected

Wilde has the estimate at $3.5 million

I wonder if he would take a discount for a 2 year term

Jaxon

Age clusters with Broberg, Lavoie and Konovalov added. If Broberg matures quickly it would really benefit the Oilers. Lavoie may jump up sooner than we expect. Next year until 2025-26 is their 6-year window with 2022-23 and 23-24 looking like their best shot at winning. I’ve made broad assumptions about development, peaks, and aging curves that may or may not be accurate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing

Hot Eire

slopitch:
https://twitter.com/treenasoil/status/1143002365672341504?s=21

Ville Leskinen a name to consider….as per Garfield

To replace JP or to help woo him back? Hmmm

Would be a potentially nice pick up for the oil if true.

Gotta say that apart from that one great summer, treenasoil rumours have stayed just that….rumours.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Facetious argument. Broberg is several years out still, and if Nurse is any indication it’ll be draft+5 or draft+6 before he’s effective in the top-4. Is 1 more defenseman going to change things from “spending 60% of their time in their own zone running around and defending” to a puck transitioning powerhouse team – especially a guy for whom outlet passing isn’t his strong point? You know better, OP.

My post had nothing to do with Broberg.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: The person missing from this list is Konovalov.By the numbers, he’s the best goalie we’ve drafted since Dubnyk.I’d have him placed somewhere in the middle of this bunch.At worst 7th.

I would argue the main person missing from that list is Lagesson.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Martin Marincin is up to 200 NHL games.He would have had more than that if the Oilers hadn’t given him away for a late round draft pick.

Oh, come on, Marincin is 27 and still has not established himself as an every day NHL player – spent time last year in the minor leagues with an org that has a major deficiency with NHL blueliners.

ArmchairGM

Gerta Rauss:
This little nugget from Mirtle’s latest at The Athletic

re: the Leafs in trying to acquire a D

They’ve seemingly talked to every team in the league about every defenceman they could plausibly add, including some surprising names such as Darnell Nurse, a former Soo Greyhound whom Leafs GM Kyle Dubas apparently tried to pry out of Edmonton a few weeks ago in a blockbuster deal before talks broke down

Blockbuster as in Marner? Or Blockbuster as in Marleau + Zaitsev?

ArmchairGM

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
slopitch,

Gretzky scored 55 empty net goals over his career.Nobody’s trying to say he really only scored 837 true goals.They all count.

I wish they didn’t count vis a vis the rocket Richard though, cause Draisaitl would’ve won this year if they didn’t. Ovi only scored 47 against goalies, Draisaitl scored 50.

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer:
I feel bad for Hall
Next year he will finally be able to go to a contender and all the contenders will be out of cap.
Actually most teams will be out of cap

Pretty sure he said something like he’s earned his money and the next contract will be about contending. It looks like the NHL GMs are going to hold him to his word.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: True, however, on the other hand, imagine McDavid and Drai no spending 60% of their time in their own zone running around and defending……

Facetious argument. Broberg is several years out still, and if Nurse is any indication it’ll be draft+5 or draft+6 before he’s effective in the top-4. Is 1 more defenseman going to change things from “spending 60% of their time in their own zone running around and defending” to a puck transitioning powerhouse team – especially a guy for whom outlet passing isn’t his strong point? You know better, OP.

Jaxon

slopitch: I read he had 5 en goals. But he’s still in great company at 15 goals!

Oilers havent had a good 2nd pick since Petry (Benson and McLeod are possible). Lets go Raphael!

EN goals in the playoffs are actually a big positive. It means the coach put you out in the dying seconds of a playoff game to protect a lead close enough to pull the goalie. It means the coach trusted him defensively, too.

ArmchairGM

Jethro Tull: At 12yo he was only 5’11 and 180lbs…..I keed, I keed!

That is a difference. What’s interesting is the story that his coaches put him D because they wanted him on the team. My question would be “who were the wingers who were better than him?”

Broberg was a center, not a winger. ( haven’t followed the thread exactly, just assuming that you are talking about him)

Munny

Gerta Rauss,

It’s not surprising though. He’s easily the most tradeable piece for bringing in forward help, and he’s going to be expensive at some point. I imagine his name has been out there for some time.

Puts a little oomph behind the Broberg pick too.

At some point a defenseman or two are going to be traded.

Gerta Rauss

Munny,

What I found interesting about that quote was that there was “talks” that may have involved Nurse

Gerta Rauss

Ancient Oilers Fan,

Yup, 10-4, I stand corrected

Munny

YKOil,

Well, if it fell apart, it likely was a complicated trade. Could’ve been Kadri + Brown.

Ancient Oilers Fan

Gerta Rauss: No one is debating that, but we saw after Vegas joined the league, the total revenue went up

The assertion is when Seattle joins, the total revenue will increase again (and subsequently bump up the cap)

If you look at the original post, he was using $500M in his calculations, I was correcting him

Actually, in the original post the Buy-in fee was never mentioned. The only $500 had a K behind it not an M and was a conservative estimate of how much a decent Seattle year might change the cap,$500,000

YKOil

Munny:
Gerta Rauss,
Yikes. Have to wonder what the other pieces to the blockbuster were.

Guessing Nylander? If Nylander wasn’t involved that becomes a much more complicated trade.

Munny

Gerta Rauss,

Yikes. Have to wonder what the other pieces to the blockbuster were.

Munny

Pescador: Yes, but let’s be honest
he should’ve been drafted top 10

I had him ranked 11th going into that draft. Was ecstatic when we got him. I think he’s covered his spot. But I also had Larsson at 1st, ahead of Nuge, but the offence never showed up.

Reja

RonnieB: Just to put a bow on it, this year he managed to play in 47 games with 8 goals and 4 assists.

He would have been our 6th leading Goal scorer up front. Pitlick was valuable even though he got injured the year we made the playoffs he scored some key goals that won us games. All I’m saying is I would take 6 pitlicks in the bottom 6 today then the shrubs we had there last year.

Foege Foegele Torpe

oilersfan:
Stauffer just tweeted that the oilers should look at Brett Connolly.

Which means they are

Hopefully they can get him for 2x$3 milliongiven the cap crunch around the league

He was a sixth overall pick by the can’t miss kid Stevie Yzerman

Would help make up for the colossal fail on Jesse

Didn’t the talk to free agent window open today?

top 6 UFA wingers typically don’t sign for $3Mil x 2
4-5 years @ $5M, this will be the ask from the agent
These are 2019 prices

Gerta Rauss

This little nugget from Mirtle’s latest at The Athletic

re: the Leafs in trying to acquire a D

They’ve seemingly talked to every team in the league about every defenceman they could plausibly add, including some surprising names such as Darnell Nurse, a former Soo Greyhound whom Leafs GM Kyle Dubas apparently tried to pry out of Edmonton a few weeks ago in a blockbuster deal before talks broke down

Foege Foegele Torpe

Tarkus: Well, five 1st-rounders, anyway.

Klefbom went 19th overall in ’11.

Yes, but let’s be honest
he should’ve been drafted top 10

Bulging Twine

Watched some Lavoie highlights.

One thing that stood out was his great ability to quickly adjust his body and stick to changing circumstances and get a shot off. Very good adjusting and quick thinking.

RonnieB

Reja: But a very effective player when healthy and if we ever make the playoffs these are the typeyou need to win in my opinion. We spent all that time developing him he was on the cheap even on a 3 year contract it’s not like our bottom 6 is bubbling over with anybody better them him.

Just to put a bow on it, this year he managed to play in 47 games with 8 goals and 4 assists.

oilersfan

Stauffer just tweeted that the oilers should look at Brett Connolly.

Which means they are

Hopefully they can get him for 2x$3 million given the cap crunch around the league

He was a sixth overall pick by the can’t miss kid Stevie Yzerman

Would help make up for the colossal fail on Jesse

Didn’t the talk to free agent window open today?

Munny

defmn: Stauffer Top 10 Oilers Prospects after 2019 Draft
#1. Bouchard-RD
#2. Broberg-LD
#3. Yamamoto-RW
#4. Benson-LW
#5. Samaroukov-LD
#6. Lavoie-C/RW
#7. McLeod-C
#8. Jones-LD
#9. Marody-C
#10. Maksimov-RW

The person missing from this list is Konovalov. By the numbers, he’s the best goalie we’ve drafted since Dubnyk. I’d have him placed somewhere in the middle of this bunch. At worst 7th.

godot10

Glovjuice: The Hawks did this and won 3 cups in six years. That is a massive dynasty in this era.The Oilers need to trade Nuge and Larson now to extract the requisite value of said players vis-a-vis their career ark. One little issue is we have no cups with them in the lineup and the Hawks had 1,2 or 3 depending on when you perform the timeline analysis.

The Hawks were able to give Keith and Hossa contracts which today would be cap contravention.

The OIlers don’t have enough good hockey players to trade Nugent-Hopkins or Larsson.

godot10

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
defmn,

By memory it was he wanted longer than the one year term offered.When Nill offered 3 years he took it.

The Oilers didn’t offer Pitlick a contract before he became a UFA.

godot10

Reja: I would take pitlick back he was just coming into his own. Remind me why they didn’t resign him again.

Martin Marincin is up to 200 NHL games. He would have had more than that if the Oilers hadn’t given him away for a late round draft pick.

Neumann

Lowetide,

LT – perhaps a lacrosse game, a medicine game, the Thompson brothers are doing amazing things in lacrosse at the moment for First Nations youth and lacrosse around the world.

slopitch

https://twitter.com/treenasoil/status/1143002365672341504?s=21

Ville Leskinen a name to consider….as per Garfield

To replace JP or to help woo him back? Hmmm

€√¥£€^$

I was just looking at some other teams’ draft picks and stumbled across this interesting tidbit (at least for me) there is a 15 yr old prep school player @ St. Sebastian’s in Mass who scored 25 pts in 25 games (15 goals) this past season. He is on a team that have a couple of NHL draft picks on it and mostly 18 & 19 year old teammates.

Alumni from this school include Mike Morrison, Rick DiPietro and Mike Grier. Recent alumni include Brian Boyle & Noah Hanifan.

This player’s name: Jack Hughes

Material Elvis

GordieHoweHatTrick: That is 5 drafted top10OV D!

I count four.

Material Elvis

slopitch: I read he had 5 en goals. But he’s still in great company at 15 goals!

Oilers havent had a good 2nd pick since Petry (Benson and McLeod are possible). Lets go Raphael!

How many EN goals did those other guys have? I’m certain that the answer isn’t zero.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: 62
44
49
31
37
31

6 pro seasons – those are his games played in those seasons.

But a very effective player when healthy and if we ever make the playoffs these are the type you need to win in my opinion. We spent all that time developing him he was on the cheap even on a 3 year contract it’s not like our bottom 6 is bubbling over with anybody better them him.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: Wasn’t the QO – he was hurt so much that he played so few games he became a Group VI UFA

Thanks for the reminder. The injuries just made him really high risk.

flyfish1168

Reja: Bouchard

Broberg

Reja

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
defmn,

By memory it was he wanted longer than the one year term offered.When Nill offered 3 years he took it.

He has 2 more years in Dallas to pull a Glencross

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
defmn,

By memory it was he wanted longer than the one year term offered.When Nill offered 3 years he took it.

This is also not quite accurate.

He was express upon his first return to Edmonton as a Star that he was just hoping to get a one-way contract from someone and was floored when, not only did Dallas offer that but the three years.

With that said, if the Oilers had offered him a one-way deal before he became a UFA, he likely would have signed it so they may have been ready to move on – see games played (as you correctly state with the injuries) – they have had issues with the 50 in the past.

Glovjuice

Professor Q:
Ryan,

Crosby skates differently than MacKinnon and McDavid, though. He has the quads and hams of an Olympian deity.

Crosby’s hams ooze succulent juices.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Qualifying offer and health, I believe.

Wasn’t the QO – he was hurt so much that he played so few games he became a Group VI UFA

OriginalPouzar

Reja: I would take pitlick back he was just coming into his own. Remind me why they didn’t resign him
again.

62
44
49
31
37
31

6 pro seasons – those are his games played in those seasons.