Misfits

As we approach free agency, and begin to hear names connect to the Oilers, we can make assumptions about the roster. For instance, Edmonton is going to acquire a veteran goaltender, meaning Shane Starrett will be in Bakersfield, the team isn’t going to acquire Tristan Jarry and Anthony Stolarz is down the line.

There are a plethora of defensemen available, meaning a Kris Russell trade is a distant bell, at least for now. Wingers? Brett Connolly is available but might take up most of the cap room available. What does that mean to the rest of procurement?

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
  • New Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
  • New Daniel Nugent-BowmanKen Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
  • Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
  • Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
  • Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

RIGHT (NY) GARD?

Joakim Nygard is a fascinating cat. His NHLE is 19-13-32 and that would represent No. 2 line LW on this club. Can he handle that? I mean, he’s a speed demon and the SHL is a good league, but could he score 19 goals in the NHL with Nuge and maybe some power-play time?

Year over year Nygard looks consistent, he increased his shot and goal totals this past season, both campaigns look good (this is SHL).

50-MAN ROSTER (42)

Edmonton has to qualify several rfa’s today, that gets them back on the roster. Jesse Puljujarvi will be qualified, I assume Jujhar Khaira will be as well. After that, we may see all of Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin and Robin Norell walked. Edmonton has already indicated Tobias Rieder and Ty Rattie will not return.

CURRENT PROJECTED LINEUP

This is obviously not the final roster but does serve to show how much work Ken Holland has left to do this summer. Ideally, Starrett, Manning, Benson, Currie, Brodziak and possibly others are upgraded but there’s going to be too much month at the end of the money.

Edmonton has the cap room to get a goalie and one, two wingers. I think a buyout is possible.

GAETAN HAAS

Rumors online that the Oilers will sigh RH center Gaetan Haas in free agency after July 1. Here is the story. EP says he plays a reliable game, Haas scored 50, 15-23-38 for Bern last season (Mark Arcobello led the team in points with 53). Here’s how he would lineup NHLE compared to Edmonton’s prospects/minor leaguers.

I expect he’ll be fighting it out for a roster spot with a bunch of names on this list, as well as Colby Cave and Kyle Brodziak. His range of skills bodes well for him, and his skating (described as excellent) might be the key element for him in making the team.

We’ve had him on the radar for some time, looks like the Capitals winger is a real possibility. Here’s what I wrote back in March (here):

He’ll turn 27 in the spring, and has just posted his first 20-plus goal season in the NHL. Once viewed as a failed draft pick (he was No. 6 overall to Tampa Bay in 2010) Connolly has emerged as a reliable scoring winger who is just now reaching his peak value.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with great guests and some meaty, beaty, big and bouncy things to discuss. It all starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us, we’ll talk the weekend draft and free agency to come. Sean Woodley will be by from Locked on Raptors and TSN1150 to talk awards, offseason and being cool around Kawhi. Finally, Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will discuss Edmonton’s draft and some of the big winners from last weekend. Talk soon! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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394 Responses to "Misfits"

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  1. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: WOW! That’s candid and he’s giving out WAY more info than most agents do.

    I like the tone! There’s clearly mutual interest.

    Do not let Connolly’s agent in the same room with Jesse’s agent even for a minute in fact make sure they don’t cross paths in the hallway all it takes is eye contact and we’re screwed.

  2. Generational Poster says:

    I wonder if Russell could be moved for a forward in a similar contract situation? Mathieu Perrault comes to mind. Very similar $ and term, and I thought I heard the Jets wanted to unload his contract?

    I will add the caveats that I haven’t looked at his fancy stats closely, and obviously it would require Russell waiving, but imo this deal could make some sense for both sides (with Trouba out and Myers likely leaving)?

    In an ideal world, I’d love to add Jessie P, a prospect and pick in a larger deal to also snag Ehlers but that might be dreaming too big.

  3. Rube Foster says:

    ArmchairGM: He would instantly be the 3rd or 4th best forward on the Oilers roster, with a large gap below the top-4. That’s not a tertiary player.

    Total number of goals scored at 5v5 over the past 3 seasons:

    McDavid 75
    Draisaitl 54
    ** Connolly 45
    Nugent-Hopkins 36

    Thanks for running the Burakovsky numbers! He’s just under Nuge, at 30 5v5 goals over the past three years.

    I don’t want to get too excited by what Connolly’s Agent said, but If Connolly is willing to sign for $3.5M and we can acquire Burakovsky with cost certainty at $3.23M, do we shoot for both of them? They sure would go a long way to building up some skill and speed on our top six.

    Assuming we can move Russell for picks or prospects, we’d have the cap room for MPS on the cheap as well, don’t we?

  4. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM: WOW! That’s candid and he’s giving out WAY more info than most agents do.

    I like the tone! There’s clearly mutual interest.

    It is a pretty decent situation for Connolly to step into. Close to home (Northern BC), would be a top 6 option meaning he gets to play with McDavid, Drai, or Nuge as his center, and having a wicked RHS would almost guarantee PP1 time.

    Oilers dont have any RW prospects that would immediately come in and dethrone his position either, (Sorry Pulju and Yamo, Lavoie is still a ways away). It could be a good option for him to sign here, get great results, and have a bigger retirement contract at 30/31

  5. Munny says:

    Michael Smith‏Verified account @MSmithCanes · 2h2 hours ago

    #Canes GM Don Waddell said the team is leaning towards buying out Scott Darling but still exploring all available options.

    If he has rehabbed and is still dry, this is a goalie I would consider taking a flyer on… if Mrazek turns out to be too expensive and the Canes actually buy Darling out.

  6. John Chambers says:

    Carl Soderberg gets traded for a lesser contract and 3rd rd pick.

    I’m going to assume that after true July 1st bonuses are paid that Sekera or Russell get moved for a similar return.

  7. TeeVee says:

    Reja: Why does 25% of the fan base refuse to give Kosh a Honest chance before running him out of town.

    It’s because of the beach balls going over his glove hand at the speed of dandelion fluff.

  8. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: It sounds like they’re talking to other teams about Burakovsky still, so he’s clearly available via trade.

    Source? You didn’t have one when you announced he had been qualified before it had been officially announced. Guessing the same here, but would be delighted if you actually have one.

    And not that I doubt it… Every player not part of the core of every team is clearly available for the right return this time of year.

  9. Munny says:

    John Chambers: I’m going to assume that after true July 1st bonuses are paid that Sekera or Russell get moved for a similar return.

    I’ve been beating the same drum. There will be a greater chance of either player being able to be traded then, yes.

  10. John Chambers says:

    Munny:
    Michael Smith‏Verified account @MSmithCanes · 2h2 hours ago


    #Canes GM Don Waddell said the team is leaning towards buying out Scott Darling but still exploring all available options.

    If he has rehabbed and is still dry, this is a goalie I would consider taking a flyer on… if Mrazek turns out to be too expensive and the Canes actually buy Darling out.

    Scott Darling is actually the best, most realistic return for Lucic’s contract.

    It could be ugly – like Lucic and Puljujarvi for Darling. Then we gotta bench Darling in the minors for the season, but then you could buy him out next summer.

    This would be a better outcome for the Oilers than Loui Eriksson.

    Don’t count on Darling to play NHL games for you though. He cost the Canes a shot at playoffs two years straight. Just ask Bill Peters.

  11. Professor Q says:

    Howson is on The Darren Dreger Show right now.

    He doesn’t seem that bad during this interview. Very intriguing interview and a nice insight into his interactions and what Edmonton looks for in each individual player throughout the season and development plans.

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    Dustylegnd: 6th leading scorer on Washington, 46 points……ohh my Dutch has some work infront of him

    Why do so many people look at boxcars and make definitive judgments?? HE DIDN’T GET PP TIME BECAUSE HE PLAYS THE SAME POSITION ON THE PP AS OVECHKIN.

    Now that you understand that, lets look at Washington’s 5v5 scoring last year:

    Ovechkin 28-21-49
    Connolly 21-23-44
    Kuznetsov 8-35-43
    Backstrom 13-28-41
    Vrana 22-18-40
    Oshie 15-18-33
    Carlson 8-25-33

    Oh, and Connolly had less TOI than everybody but Oshie.

    So he was Washington’s 2nd best scorer at 5v5 but didn’t get much PP opportunity. His 44 points in this discipline put him in a tie for 30th most in the league, with Dadonov, Atkinson, DeBrincat and Dubois.

    His 2.66 P/60 put him in a tie for 16th in the league with Marchand and Tatar.

    Over the past 3 years combined, he has scored 2.19 P/60 at 5v5. That’s good for 34th in the league right behind Huberdeau (2.20) and several spots ahead of Taylor Hall (2.13). His G/60, 1.13, ranks him 11th in the league, tied with Anders Lee and ahead of notable goal scorers like Tavares (1.10) and Laine (1.07).

    People on here would LOVE to trade prime assets for Ehlers (0.93 G/60, 2.12 P/60) who gets $6M, yet they balk at paying Connolly (1.13 / 2.19) $4M with no assets going out in a trade.

    Wow.

  13. Pescador says:

    Reja: Why does 25% of the fan base refuse to give Kosh a Honest chance before running him out of town.

    Kosh?
    How about Kost?
    As in he…… you can fill in the rest

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes: It is a pretty decent situation for Connolly to step into. Close to home (Northern BC), would be a top 6 option meaning he gets to play with McDavid, Drai, or Nuge as his center, and having a wicked RHS would almost guarantee PP1 time.

    Oilers dont have any RW prospects that would immediately come in and dethrone his position either, (Sorry Pulju and Yamo, Lavoie is still a ways away). It could be a good option for him to sign here, get great results, and have a bigger retirement contract at 30/31

    Exactly what I’m thinking. A 2-3 year deal with Edmonton could net him a HUGE contract. It’d be a nice FU to all the people that have called him a bust.

  15. PennersPancakes says:

    John Chambers: It could be ugly – like Lucic and Puljujarvi for Darling. Then we gotta bench Darling in the minors for the season, but then you could buy him out next summer.

    I think it really depends on if there could be a reasonable use for the dollars saved for the Oilers but a Darling buyout this season isnt all too bad. If it was a Lucic + Pulju trade youd open up an extra 6 mill to use this year. I would do that in a heartbeat.

    I dont know if Carolina is still a cash strapped team, but buying out Darling might not be an option for them. Since they have Darling buried theyre essentially getting a 2 mill Lucic enforcer and Pulju for taking on the extra term of Lucic. Knowing Lucic degenerative spine disease Id say theres a good chance he doesnt play out his contract meaning no real dollars spent after say, 2021.

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Source?You didn’t have one when you announced he had been qualified before it had been officially announced.Guessing the same here, but would be delighted if you actually have one.

    And not that I doubt it… Every player not part of the core of every team is clearly available for the right return this time of year.

    I wasn’t the one who announced he’d been qualified, someone else posted a Washington Post article on the last page. That same article quoted Washington’s GM as saying “… obviously his name is out there a little bit, so we do talk to some teams about him. But we’re not going to move him unless we get something we’re comfortable with back.”

    If you’re going to call somebody out at least get your facts straight.

  17. Numenius says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Good post. Would love to have him.

    Two caveats:

    1) It’s the first season his numbers have looked this good, unlike Ehlers.

    2) It’s his first full season, unlike Ehlers.

  18. Munny says:

    John Chambers: Don’t count on Darling to play NHL games for you though. He cost the Canes a shot at playoffs two years straight. Just ask Bill Peters.

    I don’t think the Canes do that trade.

    He cost Peters because of his sobriety, or rather lack thereof. I don’t mind giving him a contract of say $800k with the condition that the moment he’s not sober, he’s riding the bus in the ECHL and the contract is completely buried.

    And again, that’s all assuming he’s successfully completed rehab and is sober now.

    If he’s not, I’d try the Lucic deal, but again really doubt the Canes do it.

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    Carl Soderberg gets traded for a lesser contract and 3rd rd pick.

    I’m going to assume that after true July 1st bonuses are paid that Sekera or Russell get moved for a similar return.

    Munny: I’ve been beating the same drum.There will be a greater chance of either player being able to be traded then, yes.

    Neither player has any signing bonuses this summer.

    Next summer (July 1, 2020) Russell has a $1M bonus, Sekera has no bonuses.

  20. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dallas trades Pitlick for Ryan Hartman then doesn’t qualify him.

    Just wanted to dump Picky it seems. Wonder how Godot feels about that!

    Chicago pretty smart to get a 1st out of Hartman last season.

  21. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: I wasn’t the one who announced he’d been qualified, someone else posted a Washington Post article on the last page. That same article quoted Washington’s GM as saying “… obviously his name is out there a little bit, so we do talk to some teams about him. But we’re not going to move him unless we get something we’re comfortable with back.”

    If you’re going to call somebody out at least get your facts straight.

    Thank you for the source. As I said, I would be delighted, and I am. Please continue to do so.

    By the way, that article at the time it was posted said “expected to”. As was also stated in this thread. The article was updated at 2:22 MDT to reflect the tweet I posted at about the same time, which had come out from the organization at 2pm our time.

    That was after your post, but the original article was before. Your post didn’t mention any source, so it was impossible to tell at that time whether you were going from “expected to” or had other information.

    Just want to make sure we keep our facts straight. Judging by your comment above, I’m sure you agree that’s important. 🙂

  22. PennersPancakes says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Dallas trades Pitlick for Ryan Hartman then doesn’t qualify him.

    I hope Holland is all over this then. Hartman isnt going to be a star but considering the oilers depth hes an NHL player! His last season was disappointing but thats coming off a shoulder surgery in the off season.

    Hes scored 40 ES goals the last three seasons and is still only 24 years old.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    Numenius:
    ArmchairGM,

    Good post. Would love to have him.

    Two caveats:

    1) It’s the first season his numbers have looked this good, unlike Ehlers.

    2) It’s his first full season, unlike Ehlers.

    Why can’t you look up the fact before posting??

    1) Points/60 over 3 years:

    Connolly
    16-17: 1.98
    17-18: 1.74
    18-19: 2.66
    Total: 2.13

    Ehlers
    16-17: 2.28
    17-18: 2.15
    18-19: 1.88
    Total: 2.12

    Looks pretty even to me. And if we look at Goals/60:

    Connolly
    16-17: 1.26
    17-18: 0.83
    18-19: 1.27
    Total: 1.13

    Ehlers
    16-17: 0.78
    17-18: 0.94
    18-19: 1.11
    Total: 0.93

    It’s the first season Ehler’s number have looked good, unlike Connolly.

    2)

    Connolly has played 217 regular season games over the past 3 years.
    Ehlers has played 226 regular season games over the past 3 years.

    So Ehlers has played 9 more games. Big whoop. And if you include playoff games, Connolly has played 8 games more than Ehlers over the past 3 years.

    I don’t think ‘caveat’ means what you think it means.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Moral of the offseason.Russell Sekera and Lucic need to have amazing seasons for us to be able to give them away next offseason

    I think you are a bit harsh on Russell and Sekera.

    There is, apparently, a decent amount of interest in Russell – while they may not be able to dispose of him for a full $4M, they could likely come close, for sure $3M. Next off-season, with only the one year left, come on, he’s tradeable (assuming he doesn’t fall off a cliff).

    Sekera was full value for his contract prior to getting hurt and, if he is that player again, with inflation, he’s a value contract. Of course, there is no certainty on how he will play but indications are positive so far and, even if he’s just an average 2nd pair d-man with experience and smarts, playoff teams would absolutely take that on for 1 year (not year).

    Lucic – blah – it would cost McDavid to get rid of him clean.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Thank you for the source. As I said, I would be delighted, and I am.Please continue to do so.

    By the way, that article at the time it was posted said “expected to”.As was also stated in this thread.The article was updated at 2:22 MDT to reflect the tweet I posted at about the same time, which had come out from the organization at 2pm our time.

    That was after your post, but the original article was before. Your post didn’t mention any source, so it was impossible to tell at that time whether you were going from “expected to” or had other information.

    Just want to make sure we keep our facts straight. Judging by your comment above, I’m sure you agree that’s important.

    Don’t be a jerk. I don’t need to “cite a source” when someone above just posted a link to their source. I didn’t read the article, I took the headline at face value. Washington qualified Burakovsky, end of story.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just went on the Caps twitter and, yes, Burakovsky got qualified.

    He could still be an acquisition target – my guess is acquisition cost should be fairly cheap given he’s going to come in at over $3M.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    jzed:
    Anyone see the ‘market for NHL Defenseis broken’?Noticed Russellhas better numbers thanMyers, but at least 3 million cheaper. Put Russell on his proper side , give him a decent partner that can move the puck, and watch everyone else give out terrible overpays for a change.

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Sekera/Nurse
    Russell/Benning (Jones)

    ?

  28. Jaxon says:

    Numenius:
    Now that Russel is off his NMC and on his NTC, can he be buried in the minors?

    That would save $1 million in space, which would be almost enough to fit everyone else in, including a backup at 2.5 and Connolly at 3.5.

    If you still need more space, you could trade Benning for a pick, or for a 1 M winger, and that should do it.

    I gave Khaira 1.5 and all remaining players 1 to make it work.

    Russell’s NMC continues to the end of his contact, so no, he cannot be sent down but he can be traced to his 10 teams.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Manning is lucky if he gets to play for the Condors , no chance in hell he is an Oiler. Persson has to show he can compete at the NHL level, everyone seems to be gifting him a spot on the big club, there is no guarantee yet.

    Of course there is no guarantee and, as per my post, Persson was just an example of the person that fills the spot after camp.

    It could be Jones, it could be Persson, it could be Lagesson.

    Management surely isn’t acquiring an external option to be the 6th/7th D so someone “unproven” will be on the roster.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Draisaitl can be #1RW.Hitchcock was being obsessive compulsive playing Draisaitl on LW.

    I haven’t compared his scoring rates pre and post Hitch and on the left vs. the right wing but, from memory, Drai’s scoring rates were pretty damn impressive down the stretch, post-Hitch.

    Of course, the one thing I will always be grateful for is Hitch “fixing” Drai’s overall/200 foot game and consistency – he was a different player after playing under Hitch for a month.

    Hopefully he keeps that game and doesn’t regress.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    PennersPancakes: I hope Holland is all over this then. Hartman isnt going to be a star but considering the oilers depth hes an NHL player! His last season was disappointing but thats coming off a shoulder surgery in the off season.

    Hes scored 40 ES goals the last three seasons and is still only 24 years old.

    Ya I’m not so sure, his possession metrics were atrocious last season and pretty poor the year before. Seems his 16-17 season was quality but I don’t know that he’s been the same player since.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Pretty sure the Caps qualified Burakovsky.Many reports this morning stating they plan to.

    Sorry, haven’t been paying much attention until recently – didn’t realize that until about 30 min ago (and then, stupidly, made a post about it thinking I was being all informative)…..

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: You are gutting the next two seasons if you trade Nurse, probably more.The young D are not ready.

    Oh, a couple could very well be ready – in particular Jones and Lagesson – of course, not to cover for the loss of Nurse. I guess there is the potential for Sekera to cover for the loss of Nurse.

    Of course, next year would be the time to do this, if it needs to be done/should be done – here is hoping Nurse is in out top 4 for the next 9 years.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: True, but CapFriendly lists 8D on the roster since both Manning and Persson are on 1-way deals. So burying Manning does save money relative to what’s listed on CapFriendly.

    $8.333M in cap space becomes $9.408M with Manning in the minors and only 7D on the roster (and of course only 9F and 1G accounted for).

    https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers

    Not if they run with a 23 man roster, as standard.

    Capfriendly currently accounts for a roster size of 18 – they need 5 players.

    Once buried, they’ll have an extra $1.075M but will likely need 6 players, be it 8D or 14F.

    The premise is the same unless they run with a 22 man roster.

  35. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, a couple could very well be ready – in particular Jones and Lagesson – of course, not to cover for the loss of Nurse.I guess there is the potential for Sekera to cover for the loss of Nurse.

    Of course, next year would be the time to do this, if it needs to be done/should be done – here is hoping Nurse is in out top 4 for the next 9 years.

    I’m not saying to trade nurse, but if you were to trade him, when would be the most opportune time to get maximum value back?

    I would think that it would be this summer.

    Next summer he’s an RFA which would drop his value since you’re not going to sign and trade him next summer. His contract expectations will also likely be quite significant next summer.

    As we’ve seen with Trouba (although his trade demands didn’t help his value), the return on an unsigned RFA dman is not substantial.

    Also, further to my point, his current cap hit of $3.2m represents a value contract further bolstering his potential trade value.

    If you’re going to keep him, then keep him, but if you’re going to trade him, this summer will be his most valuable as a tradable asset.

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Just went on the Caps twitter and, yes, Burakovsky got qualified.

    He could still be an acquisition target – my guess is acquisition cost should be fairly cheap given he’s going to come in at over $3M.

    I think he’ll be a cap casualty. Washington has $9M and 6 spots to fill. Vrana could take $4M of that by himself, +/- depending on the term. That leaves $5M for 5 guys, I don’t see Burakovsky fitting into that.

    There’s still opportunity to sign him for less than his QO, too.

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: I know “30-40” is going to see ridiculous to some, but I think its possible. He scored 1.27 g/60 at 5v5 last year, if you extrapolate that based on Chiasson’s TOI you get 23 goals. It’s a little harder to gauge PP production because he gets to little TOI (he plays the Ovi spot, not the Oshie spot, hence the lack of TOI) but if you look at the 3 years previous you’ll see he scored 2.02, 2.02 and 2.37 g/60, which works out to about another 10 goals. These numbers are based on his scoring rates playing alongside Lars Eller without accounting for the inevitable McDavid Bump. Even playing with Nuge would likely push his number up a little.

    He would have been playing mostly against 3rd line comp though No?

  38. godot10 says:

    Numenius:
    Now that Russel is off his NMC and on his NTC, can he be buried in the minors?

    That would save $1 million in space, which would be almost enough to fit everyone else in, including a backup at 2.5 and Connolly at 3.5.

    If you still need more space, you could trade Benning for a pick, or for a 1 M winger, and that should do it.

    I gave Khaira 1.5 and all remaining players 1 to make it work.

    Russell still has a NMC with respect to the minors on all 4 years on his contract, and a 10-team list for the 3rd year where he may be traded to, and a 15-team list for the 4th year. He cannot be sent to Bakersfield.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: He would have been playing mostly against 3rd line comp though No?

    Yes, with Lars Eller as his center. I’m pretty sure who you play with has a greater impact on your success than who you play against. Although he did pretty well against elites, according to puckiq.com

    CF%RC: +6.30
    DFF%RC: +5.10
    GF%: 58.10 (18-13)

  40. Andy Dufresne says:

    Rube Foster: Keep up! You should really pay closer attention to this forum:)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/06/25/capitals-qualify-restricted-free-agent-forward-andre-burakovsky/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4d248a814452

    Said it along time ago, watching Burakovsky’s play in the playoffs, I’d have been shocked (at least surprised) if they didnt qualify him.

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Brett Connolly

    TOI/GP
    16-17:10:05
    17-18:10:20
    18-19:12:15

    5v5 Shots/60
    16-17:6.67
    17-18:4.31
    18-19:7.68

    5v5 Shooting %
    16-17:18.92
    17-18:19.23
    18-19:16.54

    5v5 Goals/60
    16-17:1.26
    17-18:0.83
    18-19:1.27

    I don’t see a “one-and-done” player here, do you? Connolly has scored 45 5v5 goals over the past 3 years, Donskoi 30. Here’s what that looks like on the Oilers roster:

    McDavid75
    Draisaitl54
    Connolly45 **
    Maroon37
    Nugent-Hopkins36
    Donskoi30 **
    Kassian26
    Lucic21
    Caggiula19

    Both guys play 3rd line minutes with lessor centers than we can offer, and also very little PP time.

    Look at the last 5 years, its a more accurate representation of hte player IMO.

    His numbers arent that good. Its very possible 2018-19 was an aboration.

    In fact take his numbers without last year ( so the prior 4 years ) and use that….for safety sake.

    Error on the side of caution if youre paying free agent prices on a 27 yr old. IMO

    This guy does not have a strong history in the NHL. He arrived late ( as full time NHLer) He spent the vast majority of his 20 and 21 yr old seasons in the AHL. So for all intents and purposes Hes been in the NHL full time for 5 years. NO ONE has ever paid him more than $1.5m EVER!

    He has NEVER played 82 games in a season; He averages about 70 games per season.

    He has played on 3 different teams in last 5 years.

    He averages 14.5 goals per season. He scored a career high 22 goals last season. His next closest seasonal high was 15

    And now, at age 27 he’s miraculosly going to become a 25 goal 45 point guy?

    BUYER BEWARE!

    I get we are desperate. But dont make the mistake of overpayig for this guy. It could hurt us badly.

    We are one season / salary dump away from being able to sign a legit top six forward. ( I know the UFA pickings are slim given our cap situation) but DO NOT PANIC!

  42. PennersPancakes says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Ya I’m not so sure, his possession metrics were atrocious last season and pretty poor the year before. Seems his 16-17 season was quality but I don’t know that he’s been the same player since.

    I mean his advanced stats in Philly werent great, but thats a 20 game stint on a non contender. I think the shoulder surgery in the off season really impacted him. At the same time hes gotten much less offensive zone starts once he left Chicago.

    Obviously it depends on his price and if he wanted to come to Edmonton but he would be a low risk/med reward type of player. If youre going by advanced possession stats, Hartman (other than his stint in philly) looks a lot better than Kassian for example. And I would much rather have Hartman than Currie on the opening night roster.

  43. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry, haven’t been paying much attention until recently – didn’t realize that until about 30 min ago (and then, stupidly, made a post about it thinking I was being all informative)…..

    No worries. It can be pretty easy to lose track of things some days, lol.

  44. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM – great work today.

    Seriously.

    You have sold me on Connolly….

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    Stolen from HF.

    GERRY JOHANSSON:

    “The number will be fairly reasonable where a lot of teams can make a fit for him but being on the right side in Edmonton would be a great fit. We have calls to make today still and it’s up to Brett but he’s a Prince George guy. 6-8 teams have expressed interest. We’d like to be above 3M but we haven’t talked dollars. We have talked to Ken and had a good talk.”

    Brett Connolly’s agent.

    Wow – I would have thought with 6-8 teams interested, he’d be at or above $4M

    Still can’t afford him and Mrazek or equivalent without opening up millions.

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reja: Why does 25% of the fan base refuse to give Kosh a Honest chance before running him out of town.

    He wasn’t terrible until Todd and then Ken ran him ragged.

    Same with Talbot in previous years.

    All the best NHL teams are managing their starters rest carefully and are keeping their start to around 50.

    Todd rode his starter until they collapsed while leaving the backup cold then rode the backup who’d crack earlier due to lack of constant playing time.

    It’s been literally the opposite of how good and modern teams handle goalies.

    I’d wager Koskinen is ~15-20 best starter with proper rest.

    Maybe more with Tippet’s done in coverage.

  47. deardylan says:

    Brand New PuljuGod

    I am a walking screaming hell
    a thing of torture to behold
    this playoff vivisection splits my soul
    Oilers are a thing of torture to behold

    and death should know me
    Gave up 2 picks for AHL
    my hands are dirty with his development
    and I can lose you to the KHL

    I’ve got a brand new GM
    and if I lay you there
    under my brand new coach
    then I will slay you there
    for my brand new draft

    Cue Danzig hollowed hell screams.. .

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Why does 25% of the fan base refuse to give Kosh a Honest chance before running him out of town.

    He’s going to get his chance – he’s not going anywhere prior to the season.

    The issue is cap space and the fact that he received one of the most unfathomable contracts given out in the cap area given market, team cap structure, timing and, of course, performance.

    I’m pulling for the guy but there is realistically a minuscule chance he provides value for it. The best hope is really that he’s serviceable and it’s not a full anchor.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He wasn’t terrible until Todd and then Ken ran him ragged

    Yes he was – he was awful all year except the 10 game heater near the beginning of the season and his ok play for a few weeks after the deadline.

    For the two months prior to the signing he was worse than Talbot and was essentially splitting games.

  50. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: Don’t be a jerk. I don’t need to “cite a source” when someone above just posted a link to their source. I didn’t read the article, I took the headline at face value. Washington qualified Burakovsky, end of story.

    It hadn’t just been posted, there was some time and space in between. Including comments about “expected to”. Because you were saying more than what the article at the time was saying, and the “expected to” comments, it would’ve been nice to know the source. Just asking you to be clear for the sake of clarity. When you post sources, or refer to previously posted information it helps all of us… then we all have the opportunity to read the original information.

    You can choose to do so or not, it’s up to you. I’m only asking, not telling… not that telling has any weight lol. But don’t be surprised if you’re asked for the source, if you don’t. And I’m not saying you do this all the time, I have no idea. Just noticed it today and just bugged me it happened more than once… so I was givin’ you a little grief, I admit. But with the intent of teasing not insulting.

  51. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wow – I would have thought with 6-8 teams interested, he’d be at or above $4M

    Still can’t afford him and Mrazek or equivalent without opening up millions.

    I dont think its an accurate quote.

    Bob Stauffer was feeling awkward about asking an Agent about a number on guy who he is currently representing and who is about to negotiate a new contract so Bob awkwardly says ” hes not getting over 5, so I assume your looking something more than 3 and and in the 4 range”

    It wasnt the Agent who through out a number, at least thats what I heard. I could be mistaken.

  52. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes he was – he was awful all year except the 10 game heater near the beginning of the season and his ok play for a few weeks after the deadline.

    For the two months prior to the signing he was worse than Talbot and was essentially splitting games.

    Talbot was brutal with Philly

    4 games. 3.70 GAA .881 SV %

  53. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He wasn’t terrible until Todd and then Ken ran him ragged.

    Weren’t his seasonal splits nearly identical? Someone posted them here weeks back, maybe OP, but thought the difference was negligible.

  54. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes he was – he was awful all year except the 10 game heater near the beginning of the season and his ok play for a few weeks after the deadline.

    For the two months prior to the signing he was worse than Talbot and was essentially splitting games.

    I will wager you “something” that Koskinen starts 40+ games this year for the Oilers and has a SV% above 914.

    Interested?

    (the way your talking him down we should really make a .910 SV %) after all your saying he’s brutal.

  55. Munny says:

    Andy Dufresne: I dont think its an accurate quote.

    Bob Stauffer was feeling awkward about asking an Agent about a number on guy who he is currently representing and who is about to negotiate a new contract so Bob awkwardly says ” hes not getting over 5, so I assume your looking something more than 3 and and in the 4 range”

    It wasnt the Agent who through out a number, at least thats what I heard. I could be mistaken.

    Good to know. The plot thickens.

    I need very little convincing that Connolly would be a positive addition to the team. Of course, he would be. The questions are, what will the price point be?… and would Connolly choose us given a choice of essentially similar offers.

    The fact that the agent appeared on Bob’s show at all though is a positive arrow.

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He wasn’t terrible until Todd and then Ken ran him ragged.

    Same with Talbot in previous years.

    All the best NHL teams are managing their starters rest carefully and are keeping their start to around 50.

    Todd rode his starter until they collapsed while leaving the backup cold then rode the backup who’d crack earlier due to lack of constant playing time.

    It’s been literally the opposite of how good and modern teams handle goalies.

    I’d wager Koskinen is ~15-20 best starter with proper rest.

    Maybe more with Tippet’s done in coverage.

    Proper rest, adapted to new team, location, enviroment, ice size etc, and DAVE Fu#ckin TIPPET BABY!

    Pulling a Mark Messier here and personally garaunteeing a SV% above .910 for the season.

  57. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I’m pulling for the guy but there is realistically a minuscule chance he provides value for it.The best hope is really that he’s serviceable and it’s not a full anchor.

    – I’d be willing to make a bet to LT site that you are wrong, with the following conditions:

    1) Klef/Larsson/Sek/Nurse (or whoever the top-4 to start season) GP > 275,
    2) Back-up who plays min 25 game
    3) No significant games lost to injury from McD + Drai
    4) Koski is healthy

    – Write this down: “If all 4 conditions are met: Koski will be worth his slightly below league average starting goalie salary”

    *Edit: Funny I saw Andy’s bet after I posted this. OP does what most fans do: they make projections on the future based on the past, and cannot account for situational conditions. It’s the same many have done with Connolly: hey he scored 22 goals last year with Washington: we should get him and plug those goals in here”

  58. Reja says:

    TeeVee: It’s because of the beach balls going over his glove hand at the speed of dandelion fluff.

    I thought Talbot played 11/2 average or above average out of his 4 year contract let in first shot with regularity usually up high deflating a fragile team. Always raising his save pct at the end of the year during garbage time. For some reason media and most fans gave him a pass Oilers gave him every opportunity possible there’s a reason he wasn’t resigned. I believe Kosh will have a good year next year and I’m willing to give him a chance. Kosh was 25-21 on a shitty team last year and he will be used to the smaller ice with shots coming from different angles then the KHL

  59. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Exactly what I’m thinking. A 2-3 year deal with Edmonton could net him a HUGE contract. It’d be a nice FU to all the people that have called him a bust.

    Id be happy with a 2 x $3m show me deal or even a 1 x $4m

    But there has to be a top end max 2x $3.75m or 3x $3m or some such thing.

    Hopefully he likes Edmonton for all the reasons you point to a fair/reasonable/de-risked deal can be made.

  60. Glovjuice says:

    Numenius: 2019-20$744,444
    2020-21$2,644,444
    2021-22$1,444,444
    2022-23$1,444,444
    2023-24$1,444,444
    2024-25$1,444,444

    1st year is good, 2nd year is rough, otherwise not bad.

    Tough one. What a horrendous signing. Worse than Lucic. Chia needs to be sued. OP, can the seasons tickets fans sue Chia? I’m actually serious.

  61. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not if they run with a 23 man roster, as standard.

    Capfriendly currently accounts for a roster size of 18 – they need 5 players.

    Once buried, they’ll have an extra $1.075M but will likely need 6 players, be it 8D or 14F.

    The premise is the same unless they run with a 22 man roster.

    CapFriendly lists all the Oilers currently signed to one way NHL deals, and tabulates from there.

    The Oilers currently have 9F, 8D and 1G under contract, and list their cap total based off that. It happens to be 18 players currently by fluke.

    My number started there and extrapolated to the standard 13F, 7D, 2G roster. Since there are 8D listed, Manning actually subtracted (in part) by being sent down

    I was clear in my earlier post that the Oilers need 5F and 1G. I was filling the bottom spots with cheap 800k) contracts and was seeing what was left.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    PennersPancakes: I think it really depends on if there could be a reasonable use for the dollars saved for the Oilers but a Darling buyout this season isnt all too bad. If it was a Lucic + Pulju trade youd open up an extra 6 mill to use this year. I would do that in a heartbeat.

    I dont know if Carolina is still a cash strapped team, but buying out Darling might not be an option for them. Since they have Darling buried theyre essentially getting a 2 mill Lucic enforcer and Pulju for taking on the extra term of Lucic. Knowing Lucic degenerative spine disease Id say theres a good chance he doesnt play out his contract meaning no real dollars spent after say, 2021.

    I’m not a medico but I looked into his condition and it’s not degenerative from what the interwebs say. Although I don’t doubt it’s affecting his play.

  63. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’d be willing to make a bet to LT site that you are wrong, with the following conditions:

    1) Klef/Larsson/Sek/Nurse (or whoever the top-4 to start season) GP > 275,
    2) Back-up who plays min 25 game
    3) No significant games lost to injury from McD + Drai
    4) Koski is healthy

    – Write this down: “If all 4 conditions are met: Koski will be worth his slightly below league average starting goalie salary”

    *Edit: Funny I saw Andy’s bet after I posted this.OP does what most fans do: they make projections on the future based on the past, and cannot account for situational conditions.It’s the same many have done with Connolly: hey he scored 22 goals last year with Washington: we should get him and plug those goals in here”

    OP has been on Koskinen like a Dog on Bone from day 1. 🙂 (He HATES the contract)

    But hes so reasoanble about everything else that I try to avoid engaging him on the goaltender. 🙂

    So probably best that we all take a deep breath, cheer for him (as I know OP does) and bookmark his results month by month.

    So in that sense, make it a gentlemans bet.

    Perhaps each month that Koskinens SV% is under .910 I will post ” OP was right, I was wrong this month”
    and each month that Koskinens SV% is under .910 for the month. OP will post “Andy was right, I was wrong this month” 🙂

    Sounds like fun to me. 🙂

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Look at the last 5 years, its a more accurate representation of hte player IMO.

    No.

    Research has shown the latest seasons predict future seasons the best.

    The generally accepted weighing is 50% last year, 30% 2 years ago and 20% 3 years ago.

    His numbers arent that good. Its very possible 2018-19 was an aboration.

    18/19 looks a lot like 16/17, so no.


    This guy does not have a strong history in the NHL. He arrived late ( as full time NHLer) He spent the vast majority of his 20 and 21 yr old seasons in the AHL. So for all intents and purposes Hes been in the NHL full time for 5 years. NO ONE has ever paid him more than $1.5m EVER!

    He had a terrible start to his career. Don’t know why.

    WSH took him for a 800K test drive in 16/17. He did well so they got him 2 more years at 1.5

    WSH got massive value for those 3 years.


    He has NEVER played 82 games in a season; He averages about 70 games per season.

    This is true.

    He has played on 3 different teams in last 5 years.

    Meh, he played for WSH for 3 straight years and now they can’t afford him.


    He averages 14.5 goals per season. He scored a career high 22 goals last season. His next closest seasonal high was 15

    And now, at age 27 he’s miraculosly going to become a 25 goal 45 point guy?

    It’s been explained multiple times in this thread that almost all his goals are 5v5 because he played for WSH.

    It’s been explained multiple times that he’s been an elite 5v5 scorer vis a vi his TOI.

    You don’t seem to be accepting this, which is fine, but stop repeating the same things that don’t matter like career averages.

    Here’s what matters:

    Last 3 years he achieved the 11th best 5v5 goals/60 in the NHL.

    11th best over 3 years.

    If you want to look at just straight goals then he ranks 56th with 45 goals.

    Most everyone he ranks with played top 6 minutes.

    Eberle, Forsberg, Kopitar and Marner all had 45 over the last 3 years too.

    Now,

    Add to that 8-12 PP goals if he plays on EDM PP1.

    BUYER BEWARE!

    I get we are desperate. But dont make the mistake of overpayig for this guy. It could hurt us badly.

    We are one season / salary dump away from being able to sign a legit top six forward. ( I know the UFA pickings are slim given our cap situation) but DO NOT PANIC!

    Yeah, this isn’t panicking.

    This is recognizing value.

    It sound like he could come in at 4MM or even a little lower.

    That contact is value the day it’s signed and that’s rare for a UFA.

  65. Andy Dufresne says:

    Glovjuice: Tough one. What a horrendous signing. Worse than Lucic. Chia needs to be sued. OP, can the seasons tickets fans sue Chia? I’m actually serious.

    Yes. For Emotional Distress and Pain. We can role Cassandra and HarpersHair into the court room to testify on behalf of the plantiffs.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Why do so many people look at boxcars and make definitive judgments?? HE DIDN’T GET PP TIME BECAUSE HE PLAYS THE SAME POSITION ON THE PP AS OVECHKIN.

    Now that you understand that, lets look at Washington’s 5v5 scoring last year:

    Ovechkin 28-21-49
    Connolly 21-23-44
    Kuznetsov 8-35-43
    Backstrom 13-28-41
    Vrana 22-18-40
    Oshie 15-18-33
    Carlson 8-25-33

    Oh, and Connolly had less TOI than everybody but Oshie.

    So he was Washington’s 2nd best scorer at 5v5 but didn’t get much PP opportunity. His 44 points in this discipline put him in a tie for 30th most in the league, with Dadonov, Atkinson, DeBrincat and Dubois.

    His 2.66 P/60 put him in a tie for 16th in the league with Marchand and Tatar.

    Over the past 3 years combined, he has scored 2.19 P/60 at 5v5. That’s good for 34th in the league right behind Huberdeau (2.20) and several spots ahead of Taylor Hall (2.13). His G/60, 1.13, ranks him 11th in the league, tied with Anders Lee and ahead of notable goal scorers like Tavares (1.10) and Laine (1.07).

    People on here would LOVE to trade prime assets for Ehlers (0.93 G/60, 2.12 P/60) who gets $6M, yet they balk at paying Connolly (1.13 / 2.19) $4M with no assets going out in a trade.

    Wow.

    You’ve made a very strong case without P/60 or G/60. I don’t think you strengthen your case using the ratio. I have no doubt his P/60 would drop with more ice time facing first pairing and top line players. IMO the P/60 ratio can be misleading in isolation.

  67. Numenius says:

    ArmchairGM: Why can’t you look up the fact before posting??

    1) Points/60 over 3 years:

    Connolly
    16-17: 1.98
    17-18: 1.74
    18-19: 2.66
    Total: 2.13

    Ehlers
    16-17: 2.28
    17-18: 2.15
    18-19: 1.88
    Total: 2.12

    Looks pretty even to me. And if we look at Goals/60:

    Connolly
    16-17: 1.26
    17-18: 0.83
    18-19: 1.27
    Total: 1.13

    Ehlers
    16-17: 0.78
    17-18: 0.94
    18-19: 1.11
    Total: 0.93

    It’s the first season Ehler’s number have looked good, unlike Connolly.

    2)

    Connolly has played 217 regular season games over the past 3 years.
    Ehlers has played 226 regular season games over the past 3 years.

    So Ehlers has played 9 more games. Big whoop. And if you include playoff games, Connolly has played 8 games more than Ehlers over the past 3 years.

    I don’t think ‘caveat’ means what you think it means.

    I don’t appreciate the “you’re an idiot” innuendo. There’s no need for personal attacks. I’m just a guy seeking the truth here.

    My apologies if I came across that way to you. I sometimes do that without realizing (because I am often an idiot :-)), so I understand how it can happen.

    I was just pointing out two reasons that I thought your case was slightly overstated.

    I did check my facts and your numbers here proved my point. Nothing I said was false.

    But you also did a good job of showing that the differences aren’t as significant as they seem when you drill into them in more detail.

    Nice work.

    Let’s go get Connolly!

  68. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Look at the last 5 years, its a more accurate representation of hte player IMO.

    No.

    Research has shown the latest seasons predict future seasons the best.

    The generally accepted weighing is 50% last year, 30% 2 years ago and 20% 3 years ago.


    His numbers arent that good. Its very possible 2018-19 was an aboration.

    18/19 looks a lot like 16/17, so no.


    This guy does not have a strong history in the NHL. He arrived late ( as full time NHLer) He spent the vast majority of his 20 and 21 yr old seasons in the AHL. So for all intents and purposes Hes been in the NHL full time for 5 years. NO ONE has ever paid him more than $1.5m EVER!

    He had a terrible start to his career.Don’t know why.

    WSH took him for a 800K test drive in 16/17. He did well so they got him 2 more years at 1.5

    WSH got massive value for those 3 years.


    He has NEVER played 82 games in a season; He averages about 70 games per season.

    This is true.


    He has played on 3 different teams in last 5 years.

    Meh, he played for WSH for 3 straight years and now they can’t afford him.


    He averages 14.5 goals per season. He scored a career high 22 goals last season. His next closest seasonal high was 15


    And now, at age 27 he’s miraculosly going to become a 25 goal 45 point guy?

    It’s been explained multiple times in this thread that almost all his goals are 5v5 because he played for WSH.

    It’s been explained multiple times that he’s been an elite 5v5scorer vis a vi his TOI.

    You don’t seem to be accepting this, which is fine, but stop repeating the same things that don’t matter like career averages.

    Here’s what matters:

    Last 3 years he achieved the 11th best 5v5 goals/60 in the NHL.

    11th best over 3 years.

    If you want to look at just straight goals then he ranks 56th with 45 goals.

    Most everyone he ranks with played top 6 minutes.

    Eberle, Forsberg, Kopitar and Marner all had 45 over the last 3 years too.

    Now,

    Add to that 8-12 PP goals if he plays on EDM PP1.


    BUYER BEWARE!

    I get we are desperate. But dont make the mistake of overpayig for this guy. It could hurt us badly.

    We are one season / salary dump away from being able to sign a legit top six forward. ( I know the UFA pickings are slim given our cap situation) but DO NOT PANIC!

    Yeah, this isn’t panicking.

    This is recognizing value.

    It sound like he could come in at 4MM or even a little lower.

    That contact is value the day it’s signed and that’s rare for a UFA.

    I appreciate the counter argument. Thank You.

    I said in brackets in an earlier post (page 1) that i didnt know if he was scoring most of these goals at even strength)

    I assumed his even strength scoring had to be pretty good to be getting this kind of consideration. I had no idea it was that good.

    It begs the question, why was he only playing 13 minutes a game? But i guess Washignton is just that good.

    Will be interesting to see how this stands up on a lesser team and when asked to play 18 minutes a night.

    $4m at how many years?

  69. Ari says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He wasn’t terrible until Todd and then Ken ran him ragged.

    Same with Talbot in previous years.

    All the best NHL teams are managing their starters rest carefully and are keeping their start to around 50.

    Todd rode his starter until they collapsed while leaving the backup cold then rode the backup who’d crack earlier due to lack of constant playing time.

    It’s been literally the opposite of how good and modern teams handle goalies.

    Two words. Load management. Ask Kawhi.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes he was – he was awful all year except the 10 game heater near the beginning of the season and his ok play for a few weeks after the deadline.

    For the two months prior to the signing he was worse than Talbot and was essentially splitting games.

    I disagree on your premise, but agree he ran hot to start.

    When he had less rest he was worse (as is every goalie) except in December.

    I’ll dig it up later as I’m on my phone.

  71. RonnieB says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    His possession stats were far from atrocious with the exception of his 19 games after being traded to Philly.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    Howson is on The Darren Dreger Show right now.

    He doesn’t seem that bad during this interview. Very intriguing interview and a nice insight into his interactions and what Edmonton looks for in each individual player throughout the season and development plans.

    He did a good job in his “presser” on day 1 of development camp as well.

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Weren’t his seasonal splits nearly identical?Someone posted them here weeks back, maybe OP, but thought the difference was negligible.

    Iirc his 5v5 dropped significantly without rest.

    The 4v5 obscured it if you’re looking at overall SV% or GSAA/100

  74. Numenius says:

    godot10: Russell still has a NMC with respect to the minors on all 4 years on his contract, and a 10-team list for the 3rd year where he may be traded to, and a 15-team list for the 4th year.He cannot be sent to Bakersfield.

    Darn it. Thanks.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I don’t think the Canes do that trade.

    He cost Peters because of his sobriety, or rather lack thereof. I don’t mind giving him a contract of say $800k with the condition that the moment he’s not sober, he’s riding the bus in the ECHL and the contract is completely buried.

    And again, that’s all assuming he’s successfully completed rehab and is sober now.

    If he’s not, I’d try the Lucic deal, but again really doubt the Canes do it.

    Great plan to treat a guy recovering from an incurable disease that is struggling (if that happens)

    How about the “condition” is, they will support him in any way he needs in his recovery, however, if he does relapse, they will continue to support him in an agreed upon (and NHLPA/CBA approved) program of recovery?

  76. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne: Proper rest, adapted to new team, location, enviroment, ice size etc, and DAVE Fu#ckin TIPPET BABY!

    Pulling a Mark Messier here and personally garaunteeing a SV% above .910 for the season.

    I’m in as well on the save pct willing to go higher but the haters set the bar low. Healthy D core to start the year and Tippett will mean a world of difference for everyone’s confidence.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: You’ve made a very strong case without P/60 or G/60. I don’t think you strengthen your case using the ratio.I have no doubt his P/60 would drop with more ice time facing first pairing and top line players.IMO the P/60 ratio can be misleading in isolation.

    The rates give you a good point to extrapolate from.

    I’m a big QoC guy….I even pushed to create a site to show it properly.

    That said, QoT matters much more and if he plays with 97, 29 or 93 he’ll have more opportunity to score.

    If he played 5v5 with 93 and PP1 I’d expect ~17 5v5 goals and ~9 PP goals per year.

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If the Oilers org starts behaving normally we can expect the players to start to behave normally in performance.

    For years we’ve seen bizarre behaviour, doing things obviously wrong, heard experienced players speak about it.

    Fans react and think the players are all crap except a few. The reality is all teams have some top shelf talent and a bunch of good hockey players that aren’t top shelf.

    Few players can bring high level play year in and out. Most good players have a few strong years, some average, and fizzle out.

    If Holland is true to his word and creates stability, and Tippet can instill disciplined play while keeping everyone on board and creating a gelled team, it should be expected we see all boats floated, to normal levels.

    The players we’ve seen flame out and lose careers isn’t normal. Some were done, many were not able to overcome the environment which really only the top players can anywhere.

    I’m really hoping Holland does move some bodies. It needs to be done and another dead summer and the same old next season seems like a drag to me, been too many.

    I’m so sick of a capped out lousy team I’d move everyone not in the future plans, they aren’t wining the cup next year so get it on.

    Lucic, Gagner, Russell, Brodziak, Chiasson, maybe Sekera all out. Play Jones Lagesson as 3rds. Maybe move Benning and get a better 2RD or use him properly.

    Get cap and be one of the teams able to make moves like the Canes for the future. And I’d keep Marleau if he’d stay.

    It’s the other side to building, nobody does it all through the draft.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I appreciate the counter argument. Thank You.

    I said in brackets in an earlier post (page 1) that i didnt know if he was scoring most of these goals at even strength)

    I assumed his even strength scoring had to be pretty good to be getting this kind of consideration. I had no idea it was that good.

    It begs the question, why was he only playing 13 minutes a game? But i guess Washignton is just that good.

    Will be interesting to see how this stands up on a lesser team and when asked to play 18 minutes a night.

    $4m at how many years?

    He played 3rd line because of his foot speed and he was behind Wilson and Oshie 5v5 who are much better top 6 options (Wilson is a different cat, but I’ll stand by that)

    WSH found a guy on the scrap heap and rehabilitated him so they got the big value years.

    He’s EDM’s best RW if he signs.

    This more highlights how well run each franchise has been for the past few years than the ability of the player imo.

    WSH will miss him help driving a 58.7% GF% on his line the last 3 years.

  80. Andy Dufresne says:

    So it sounds like most posters are for

    1) Connolly at $4 or less at 3 years (maybe 4?)

    2) JP goes to Europe

    3) Bring in a backup like Reimer or McElhinney. (Mrazek if less than $3m ?)

    4) Lucic for James Neal or Loui Eriksson

    5) Stand pat on defense

  81. Reja says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He wasn’t terrible until Todd and then Ken ran him ragged.

    Same with Talbot in previous years.

    All the best NHL teams are managing their starters rest carefully and are keeping their start to around 50.

    Todd rode his starter until they collapsed while leaving the backup cold then rode the backup who’d crack earlier due to lack of constant playing time.

    It’s been literally the opposite of how good and modern teams handle goalies.

    I’d wager Koskinen is ~15-20 best starter with proper rest.

    Maybe more with Tippet’s done in coverage.

    Something about Edmonton the goaltending usage by Oiler coach’s going all the way back to the carrousel Mac T was running with 3 Goalies has been baffling for years.

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reja: I’m in as well on the save pct willing to go higher but the haters set the bar low. Healthy D core to start the year and Tippett will mean a world of difference for everyone’s confidence.

    We forget how good a healthy Sekera is.

    He was the best Dman in 15/16 and arguably the best in 16/17.

    He won’t be that guy, but if he’s healthy that a big deal, even if he’s 3LD with Pearsson or Jones. (I think Benning is gone to make room for those 2)

    When there’s an injury in the top 4 he can move up early too.

    Injuries are a bitch.

  83. McNuge93 says:

    Munny: Good to know. The plot thickens.

    I need very little convincing that Connolly would be a positive addition to the team. Of course, he would be. The questions are, what will the price point be?… and would Connolly choose us given a choice of essentially similar offers.

    The fact that the agent appeared on Bob’s show at all though is a positive arrow.

    He just might chooseEdmonton over others. There are not many teams that can boast such a crappy lineup of wingers where he would stand a decent chance of playing top line or very least 2nd line

  84. Ari says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    They should also trade Russell for something more useful.

  85. Andy Dufresne says:

    So I guess the question becomes, how much is an over-pay for Connolly? and, do you pay it?

    Luckily for us, as ArmChairGM has pointed out, playing on McDavids wing and getting some PP time is going to look awfully attractive to Brett in terms of boosting his numbers. Perhaps so much so that HE only wants a shorter term deal?

    Does he go

    1) $4m x 5 elsewhere

    2) $4m x 4 here

    3) $4.5m x 1 here

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Do the Oilers need more top end scoring talent, which they can’t afford for long, or second tier contributors that they can afford longer term to build a stable roster?

    I think they need some talented wingers, but ones that compliment the big salaries, not compete with them for cap space.

    To me that means guys that can finish some and play the boards and 200 ft to allow the big salaries to do what they are better than most at.

    It’s no different at D. Klef and Nurse are productive and Nurse will get paid, Klef later, and Bouchard is coming soon.

    Points and especially goals get paid, they need less productive but strong support players now.

  87. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s going to get his chance – he’s not going anywhere prior to the season.

    The issue is cap space and the fact that he received one of the most unfathomable contracts given out in the cap area given market, team cap structure, timing and, of course, performance.

    I’m pulling for the guy but there is realistically a minuscule chance he provides value for it.The best hope is really that he’s serviceable and it’s not a full anchor.

    The line forms behind Lucic Manning Russell Gagne Sekera. Have to give your starting Goalie at least 1 period without jumping on him I didn’t think he was the reason we never made the playoffs last year in fact 25-21 isn’t all that bad for a terrible team. Goalies are Voodoo get a reliable back-up for 2 to 2.5 mil 60-40 split or 40-60 whoever is playing better and I think will be alright in net.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    With Burakovsky qualified, he may be cheap to acquire via assets out but expensive as he’ll be over $3M (which is why he may be cheap to acquire).

    If/when Burokovsly signs that QO, I’d be OK acquiring him from some asset value if they retain $1M and we get him at apx $2M.

    His QO would be high again next year for us though – hopefully he’d earn it if we paid value for him.

  89. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Look at the last 5 years, its a more accurate representation of hte player IMO.

    His numbers arent that good. Its very possible 2018-19 was an aboration.

    In fact take his numbers without last year ( so the prior 4 years ) and use that….for safety sake.

    Error on the side of caution if youre paying free agent prices on a 27 yr old.IMO

    Why is 5 years a more accurate representation of the player?

    For comparison purposes, Donskoi wasn’t even in the league 5 years ago

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: I’m not saying to trade nurse, but if you were to trade him, when would be the most opportune time to get maximum value back?

    I would think that it would be this summer.

    Next summer he’s an RFA which would drop his value since you’re not going to sign and trade him next summer. His contract expectations will also likely be quite significant next summer.

    As we’ve seen with Trouba (although his trade demands didn’t help his value), the return on an unsigned RFA dman is not substantial.

    Also, further to my point, his current cap hit of $3.2m represents a value contract further bolstering his potential trade value.

    If you’re going to keep him, then keep him, but if you’re going to trade him, this summer will be his most valuable as a tradable asset.

    His value may be higher this summer but roster wise its too risky and next summer, with more progression from our young D, it makes more sense for our roster.

    I’m also not sure his trade value will be higher next year. Yes, this year he is on a value deal but any team acquiring him knows that’s only for one year and that he’s going to get paid next off-season. GMs know he’s going to be expensive soon. Yes, that one year has value but its not like this is McKinnon or Schieffle’s contract.

    Also, there is a very decent change that Nurse doesn’t approach 40 points again – both Klef and Sekera, if they stay healthy, will eat PP time – Persson might do the same. Jones might do the same. Bear might do the same. Bouchard might do the same. If that’s the case, he may come in closer to $6M and I’ll take Nurse at $6.25 X 8 any day.

  91. Ben says:

    WAS is interesting. They don’t seem in that bad shape this year for cap, it’s next year when Backstrom and Holtby blow them up.

    They’re really thin on defence now. I wonder about Russell for Burakovsky, maybe .5 retained. They’ve shown a preference for throwback types on the back end before.

    Could be a good balance trade for both teams.

  92. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “It’s been literally the opposite of how good and modern teams handle goalies.”

    # OF REG SEASON GAMES BY LAST 4 CUP WINNING GOALIES:

    MURRAY – 13
    MURRAY – 49
    HOLTBY – 54
    BINNER – 32

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Talbot was brutal with Philly

    4 games.3.70 GAA.881 SV %

    That doesn’t have anything to do with Koskinen’s play and I was stating that, for the two months leading up to Koskinen being re-signed, they essentially split the games and Talbot had better numbers.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: I will wager you “something” that Koskinen starts 40+ games this year for the Oilers and has a SV% above 914.

    Interested?

    (the way your talking him down we should really make a .910 SV %) after all your saying he’s brutal.

    1) I’m not really supposed to “bet” – you know, disease of addiction and all

    2) I don’t bet against things that I want and I would love for that to happen

    3) He was brutal last year, in the majority of his time in net – I didn’t really think that was highly debatable.

  95. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Why is 5 years a more accurate representation of the player?

    For comparison purposes, Donskoi wasn’t even in the league 5 years ago

    You’re right. I was wrong.

    You made a strong case and based on your good work I was really more concerned with price and term.

    But between your work and Woodguys additional supporting arguements, its clear to me now why people like you,( especially LT ), Woodguy and others have been right for a while now.

    It wasnt clear to me until today. So Thank You.

    Im now in the Connolly camp and excited that we are talking to him. Would be excited to see him at anything less than $4m x 3years ( or even at that and 1 more year UFA premium if we had too).

    P.S. Until recently I always thought he was smaller than 6’3″ 195lbs. So that is a pleasing revelation for me as well.

    Thanks Again.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: –

    *Edit: Funny I saw Andy’s bet after I posted this.OP does what most fans do: they make projections on the future based on the past, and cannot account for situational conditions.It’s the same many have done with Connolly: hey he scored 22 goals last year with Washington: we should get him and plug those goals in here”

    So, we shouldn’t use past performance to help predict future performance (and contract terms, etc.)?

    Of course there is context to everything and there are no straight indicators – sure environment, etc., there are a few contextual factors that lead to an argument of potential improvement. Of course, there are those the lead to an argument against that: zero history of success in the league or its minor leagues, at the age of decline not development, technical issues that, if they were going to be fixed, likely happen before 31 years of age.

    I’m pulling for the guy – right now he’s the most important player on the team.

  97. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) I’m not really supposed to “bet” – you know, disease of addiction and all

    2) I don’t bet against things that I want and I would love for that to happen

    3) He was brutal last year, in the majority of his time in net – I didn’t really think that was highly debatable.

    Completely understood. No worries.

    We will continue to agree to disagree ( as reasonable people do) on what Koskinen is.

    I know we are absolutlely on the same page in cheering for him this season. You are hoping he will do better, I am reasonably confident he will.

    Its all good.

    Keep up the good work. Just lay off my budddy 🙂

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: CapFriendly lists all the Oilers currently signed to one way NHL deals, and tabulates from there.

    The Oilers currently have 9F, 8D and 1G under contract, and list their cap total based off that. It happens to be 18 players currently by fluke.

    My number started there and extrapolated to the standard 13F, 7D, 2G roster. Since there are 8D listed, Manning actually subtracted (in part) by being sent down

    I was clear in my earlier post that the Oilers need 5F and 1G. I was filling the bottom spots with cheap 800k) contracts and was seeing what was left.

    I understand that. My point is simple – no matter who capfriendly currently lists on the roster, to the extent any of those players are buried, it doesn’t create $1.075M in cap savings as that player will be replaced – generally by an under $1M player (for some savings) but, of course, that $1.075M can be used as part of the cap hit of an external player coming in.

    I think the Oilers will be running 8D/13F and, any “burying” of a guy like Manning, doesn’t really create much cap b/c the replacement, will only be a few hundred grand cheaper, if that.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: OP has been on Koskinen like a Dog on Bone from day 1. (He HATES the contract)

    But hes so reasoanble about everything else that I try to avoid engaging him on the goaltender.

    So probably best that we all take a deep breath, cheer for him (as I know OP does) and bookmark his results month by month.

    So in that sense, make it a gentlemans bet.

    Perhaps each month that Koskinens SV% is under .910 I will post ” OP was right, I was wrong this month”
    and each month that Koskinens SV% is under .910 for the month. OP will post “Andy was right, I was wrong this month”

    Sounds like fun to me.

    I have been on him because he’s earned it with his play.

    His initial contract to bring him over was an over-pay and I was harsh on it. Near the end of that 10 game heater, i gave the man large kudos and even wrote a big long “eating crow” post. Of course, he had one good game in the next 2 months and has earned everything he has received, well, except his contract, of course.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I disagree on your premise, but agree he ran hot to start.

    When he had less rest he was worse (as is every goalie) except in December.

    I’ll dig it up later as I’m on my phone.

    Please do – I would also suggest you include the numbers for his two months or 15 games (give or take) leading up to his signing. Plenty of rest as he split the net almost evenly with Talbot plus breaks and he was brutal.

  101. Ari says:

    jtblack,

    Whoa. Excellent point!

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We forget how good a healthy Sekera is.

    He was the best Dman in 15/16 and arguably the best in 16/17.

    He won’t be that guy, but if he’s healthy that a big deal, even if he’s 3LD with Pearsson or Jones. (I think Benning is gone to make room for those 2)

    When there’s an injury in the top 4 he can move up early too.

    Injuries are a bitch.

    Sekera’s return will be massive!

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: The line forms behind Lucic Manning Russell Gagne Sekera. Have to give your starting Goalie at least 1 period without jumping on him I didn’t think he was the reason we never made the playoffs last year in fact 25-21 isn’t all that bad for a terrible team. Goalies are Voodoo get a reliable back-up for 2 to 2.5 mil 60-40 split or 40-60 whoever is playing better and I think will be alright in net.

    Its not far from Lucic and those other contracts aren’t in the same ballpark as the Koskinen contract.

    Its tough to have a legit discussion though if you truly think the Sekera contract belongs anywhere in that group. That guy was full value for his contract – then he got hurt. It was (and remains) a fully reasonable signing.

    Of course, he hasn’t played a second of his new contract but we speak about just signed contracts and analyze them all consistently and overtly. Of course I hope he does well, however, contracts are signed based on past performance and reasonable assumptions of future performance based on many things (past performance, age, experience, etc.) – there isn’t a single factor that justifies anywhere close to $4.5M in particular with term and, of course, trade protection shouldn’t have even been contemplated.

    At least the Lucic contract was thought to likely be value for the first 2/3 of it. He happened to be awful from day 1.

    There are more than a few that would like to see this contract bought out, before its even kicked in – its being discussed in some expert circles as creating issues for managers trying to sign goalies because its set such a crazy precedent.

    I stand by my statement on its egregiousness.

    And, yes, I hope I have to end up writing another giant crow post (but I will wait past a 10 game heater this time) and, even if I do, which I hope, it will end up working but doesn’t actually justify the signing from when it was made.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Completely understood. No worries.

    We will continue to agree to disagree ( as reasonable people do) on what Koskinen is.

    I know we are absolutlely on the same page in cheering for him this season. You are hoping he will do better, I am reasonably confident he will.

    Its all good.

    Keep up the good work. Just lay off my budddy

    Deal – except for the last request.

  105. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Some random observations from the recent dev camp interviews:

    Kesselring: Grew almost 1.5-2″ since last year and gained 10-15 lbs. Learning the offensive side of the game over the last season. Excited to go to North Eastern next year, says Benning had good things to say about the program.

    Blumel: Hockey bro/60 is off the charts with this young man. Confident vibe. Good English skills.

    McPhee: Looks to bring 2-way style to next level. Wants to work on skating and adding an offensive threat. Sees his strengths as protecting puck and working on guys down low.

    Lavoie: Presents as polished in interviews, especially with his grasp of English. Says Sammy is a hard player to play against, that they matched up against one another in the playoffs.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ari:
    Andy Dufresne,

    They should also trade Russell for something more useful.

    I am against a Russell trade at this time.

  107. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its not far from Lucic and those other contracts aren’t in the same ballpark as the Koskinen contract.

    Its tough to have a legit discussion though if you truly think the Sekera contract belongs anywhere in that group.That guy was full value for his contract – then he got hurt.It was (and remains) a fully reasonable signing.

    Of course, he hasn’t played a second of his new contract but we speak about just signed contracts and analyze them all consistently and overtly. Of course I hope he does well, however, contracts are signed based on past performance and reasonable assumptions of future performance based on many things (past performance, age, experience, etc.) – there isn’t a single factor that justifies anywhere close to $4.5M in particular with term and, of course, trade protection shouldn’t have even been contemplated.

    At least the Lucic contract was thought to likely be value for the first 2/3 of it. He happened to be awful from day 1.

    There are more than a few that would like to see this contract bought out, before its even kicked in – its being discussed in some expert circles as creating issues for managers trying to sign goalies because its set such a crazy precedent.

    I stand by my statement on its egregiousness.

    And, yes, I hope I have to end up writing another giant crow post (but I will wait past a 10 game heater this time) and, even if I do, which I hope, it will end up working but doesn’t actually justify the signing from when it was made.

    Off the top of my head I’m just listing who I think has negative value. When I seen what Kosh signed for I was in shock so was he probably. The ink on his contract isn’t even dry yet who’s to say he doesn’t cover his bet more then Sekera if he’s only used as a 5-6 D man

  108. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The rates give you a good point to extrapolate from.

    I’m a big QoC guy….I even pushed to create a site to show it properly.

    That said, QoT matters much more and if he plays with 97, 29 or 93 he’ll have more opportunity to score.

    If he played 5v5 with 93 and PP1 I’d expect ~17 5v5 goals and ~9 PP goals per year.

    When you first brought up Connolly as a UFA target I pretty well dismissed it out of hand. Something about UFAs and my automatic gag reflex

    But I think you guys have made a good case. I agree that he can score 25 in Edmonton next year. Here’s what sold me.

    5 x 5 Goals scored last three years.

    McDavid 75
    Draisaitl 54
    Connolly 45
    Maroon 37
    Nugent-Hopkins 36
    Donskoi 30
    Kassian 26
    Lucic 21
    Caggiula 19

    How do you argue against 45 5 x 5 goals in three years? The P/60 is useful info and important, but it would mean much less if he hadn’t actually scored 45 goals.

    I’m still skeptical, of course, but now I’m more worried about the term. Five years is still a big risk IMO. I think the player is for real though.

    I checked out his game log a couple weeks ago. He’s also a fairly consistent goal scorer. Not a lot of streaks either way.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    But between your work and Woodguys additional supporting arguements, its clear to me now why people like you,( especially LT ), Woodguy and others have been right for a while now.

    I don’t think we are “right”

    I think we make an argument that it’s a good bet.

    Tulupov could blow him up in the Joey Moss Cup and wreck his hip again.

    Lots of possible outcomes, but mostly good ones imo.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “It’s been literally the opposite of how good and modern teams handle goalies.”

    # OF REG SEASON GAMES BY LAST 4 CUP WINNING GOALIES:

    MURRAY – 13
    MURRAY – 49
    HOLTBY – 54
    BINNER – 32

    Yup.

    I wrote about the goalies who made the Conference Final and Stanley Cup Final from 2008-2018 back in September:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2018/09/todd-mclellan-has-played-talbot-much.html

    Most of them play under 3500 minutes which is ~54 starts plus relief.

    Funny thing is (and I didn’t write on this part) was that a lot of these goalies played less not due to “a plan” but due to injury.

    No shit.

    It takes a lot of luck to make a Conference Final let alone a Stanley Cup Final.

    Maybe part of that luck is “starter got hurt so the Head Coach couldn’t over play him and he went into the playoffs rested”?

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    So I guess the question becomes, how much is an over-pay for Connolly? and, do you pay it?

    Luckily for us, as ArmChairGM has pointed out, playing on McDavids wing and getting some PP time is going to look awfully attractive to Brett in terms of boosting his numbers. Perhaps so much so that HE only wants a shorter term deal?

    Does he go

    1) $4m x 5 elsewhere

    2) $4m x 4 here

    3) $4.5m x 1 here

    Andy Dufresne:
    So I guess the question becomes, how much is an over-pay for Connolly? and, do you pay it?

    Luckily for us, as ArmChairGM has pointed out, playing on McDavids wing and getting some PP time is going to look awfully attractive to Brett in terms of boosting his numbers. Perhaps so much so that HE only wants a shorter term deal?

    Does he go

    1) $4m x 5 elsewhere

    2) $4m x 4 here

    3) $4.5m x 1 here

    Haven’t thought this through too much, but I think I would prefer a higher cap and lower term, something like $4.75 over three years. It’s the term that kills. Five years is too much. Four ain’t great either.

  112. GMB3 says:

    PennersPancakes: It is a pretty decent situation for Connolly to step into. Close to home (Northern BC), would be a top 6 option meaning he gets to play with McDavid, Drai, or Nuge as his center, and having a wicked RHS would almost guarantee PP1 time.

    Oilers dont have any RW prospects that would immediately come in and dethrone his position either, (Sorry Pulju and Yamo, Lavoie is still a ways away). It could be a good option for him to sign here, get great results, and have a bigger retirement contract at 30/31

    Campbell River is in Northern BC?

  113. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    But between your work and Woodguys additional supporting arguements, its clear to me now why people like you,( especially LT ), Woodguy and others have been right for a while now.

    I don’t think we are “right”

    I think we make an argument that it’s a good bet.

    Tulupov could blow him up in the Joey Moss Cup and wreck his hip again.

    Lots of possible outcomes, but mostly good ones imo.

    This has been a great thread. I’m just curious about one thing, does Connolly still have slow boots? And, if so, does it matter? Is that a red flag as far as whether he can sustain as he approaches 30? Does it matter if we hope for him to possibly play with McDavid?

  114. Oil2Oilers says:

    I have already stated I think the Oilers will do little more for the rest of the summer than sign a backup goalie, but if they want to swing for the fences there is one big swing that would change everything.

    Offer sheet the guy who is going to score the most goals in the NHL over the next 7 years; Patrick Laine

    7 x 11M should get his and the Jets attention. No, I wouldn’t give one hot damn about the penalty in picks. Cap space can be made by shedding Russell for a late round pick and Lucic with a 50% retain this summer. Kissing Gagner, Sekera and Nurse goodbye next summer (Nurses rights would likely return draft picks)

    Laine McDavid Puljujarvi (he would stay with his buddy here)
    Benson Nuge Draisaitl
    Khaira Cave Gagner
    Nygard Marody Kassian

    The top two lines would touch the league, and the power play would be epic. Defense would rely on some prospects making it big, but it already does.

  115. Jaxon says:

    GMB3: Campbell River is in Northern BC?

    From Connolly’s Wikipedia page:

    “Raised in Prince George, British Columbia, Connolly was selected by his hometown Prince George Cougars[1] as their first selection, tenth overall, in the 2007 WHL Bantam Draft.”

    Born in Campbell River, Raised in PG.

  116. Reja says:

    GMB3: Campbell River is in Northern BC?

    It’s all in the Continental Drift. He did play Junior hockey in Prince George

  117. Numenius says:

    Oil2Oilers: 7 x 11M should get his and the Jets attention.

    If you offered that for Laine, the Jets would thank their lucky stars, take the 4 1st round picks, and have a parade in your honour.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Quote from Howson today (via Nugent Bowman):

    When it comes to Bouchard and Samorukov (both at dev’t camp), Bear, Jones, Persson, Lagesson:
    “There’s always a spot if somebody’s ready … We would expect at least one, maybe two, young defencemen to make the team.”

    —————

    To me, this is a disappointing statement since, two weeks ago, Keith Gretzky said: over the years they’ve come to camp expected graduating CHL/AHL players to make the team and its been a mistake – essentially meaning they won’t expect and count on these kids to make the team – of course, they can compete and win a spot but will pencil in established players. This statement runs counter to that.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I am against a Russell trade at this time.

    How to you propose to find some cap space?

  120. Ari says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I am against a Russell trade at this time.

    Really? Nurse’s WOWY’s with him convince me that he should go.
    Of course, I don’t want to retain salary, and I assume none of the other 5 dmen are going anywhere.

  121. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Quote from Howson today (via Nugent Bowman):

    When it comes to Bouchard and Samorukov (both at dev’t camp), Bear, Jones, Persson, Lagesson:
    “There’s always a spot if somebody’s ready … We would expect at least one, maybe two, young defencemen to make the team.”

    —————

    To me, this is a disappointing statement since, two weeks ago, Keith Gretzky said: over the years they’ve come to camp expected graduating CHL/AHL players to make the team and its been a mistake – essentially meaning they won’t expect and count on these kids to make the team – of course, they can compete and win a spot but will pencil in established players.This statement runs counter to that.

    Sounds like Oilers shopping D for help up front.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Off the top of my head I’m just listing who I think has negative value. When I seen what Kosh signed for I was in shock so was he probably. The ink on hiscontract isn’t even dry yet who’s to say he doesn’t cover his bet more then Sekera if he’s only used as a 5-6 D man

    Sekera has an established history in the NHL as a low end top pairing/high end 2nd pairing guy – he is now over 2 years removed from the important injury (that generally takes 18 months post surgery for full on-ice recovery) and the achillies injury is a non-factor (NHL players come back from it 100% consistently – its not on the same scale as the knee). He showed a reasonable spike in his play at the end of the year, solidifying that third pair and zooming Benning and was even more mobile leading his team at the Worlds. I think its reasonably likely he is once again 2nd pairing caliber but, of course, it is just a bet at this point and, you are right, he may not and Koski may. We’ll find out in a few months – hope they both do.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Armchair has made a very good case for Connolly and bump in actual production as an Oiler but I caution that performing at a certain level at 12 min of 5 on 5 a game is not the same as doing so at 16-18 min per game. PP are “easier” minutes but we are talking about his P60 as a top 6 guy now with increased tough minutes. Of course, better linemates too, potentially.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GP and 5v5 SV% for EDM goalies per month
    Per month isn’t ideal splits, but its close enough

    October
    Talbot – 10gp – .929
    Koskinen – 1gp – .938
    McLellan with his usual even hand.

    November
    Talbot – 5gp – .884
    Koskinen – 10gp – .938

    From October 6th – November 11th Talbot played 13 games.
    13 games in 37 days. 2.84 days per game and he started to crash

    December
    Talbot – 6gp – .905
    Koskinen – 9gp – .919

    From November 11 to December 16th Koskinen played 13 games
    13 games in 35 days. 2.69 days per game and he started to crash.

    Got a Xmas break but was meh
    McLellan fired in late November, Hitch kept riding the horse.

    January
    Tablot – 6gp – .908
    Koskinen – 8gp .896

    Koskinen got 5 games from Dec 27 – Jan8th.
    12 days. 2.4 days per game

    Talbot got 5 games from Dec 27-Jan 8th too because they kept relieving each other. Ha!

    February
    Talbot 4gp – .921 – traded Feb. 16th
    Koskinen 11gp – .912
    Stolarz 1 gp – 1.00

    March – Apr
    Koskinen – 16 gp – .917
    Stolarz – 5gp – .912

    From Feb 13 – Apr 2nd Koskinen played 24 games.
    24 games in 48 days.
    2 days per game.
    Man.

    For comparison:
    Rask was on the low end of starters this year and played 46 games in 186 days for 4.04 days per game.

    If a starter is healthy and dresses for every game and gets in 54 starts + 4 reliefs that’s 59 games in 186 days (or so) for 3.15 days per game.

    Oiler goalies have been rode hard and put away wet then screamed at for getting worse during the season for eons.

    It doesn’t help.

    Especially with no Sekera and wonky backs/shoulders/hands for the other guys over the past 2 years.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: This has been a great thread. I’m just curious about one thing, does Connolly still have slow boots? And, if so, does it matter? Is that a red flag as far as whether he can sustain as he approaches 30? Does it matter if we hope for him to possibly play with McDavid?

    Speed isnt’ a condition of success with McDavid – its more about offensive intelligence – knowing where to be and, importantly, knowing when to get there – timing. Along with knowing how to get McDavid the puck with speed, how to give and get him space, etc.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ari: Really?Nurse’s WOWY’s with him convince me that he should go.
    Of course, I don’t want to retain salary, and I assume none of the other 5 dmen are going anywhere.

    If there is a better replacement, then by all means.

    Today they don’t have the depth.

    Sekera-Nurse would probably be better than Russell-Nurse, but who plays 3rd pair?

    Jones-Pearsson?

    What happens when a top 4 guy gets hurt?

    So Jones goes to the top 4 and Laggesson comes up to play 3rd pair or Manning?

    Next year it will be way more prudent to move away from him.

    Maybe even later in 19/20 if Jones/Pearsson/? plays really well.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: How to you propose to find some cap space?

    They have enough to sign Connolly and a goalie.

    Everything else from the bargain bin.

    Buyout Gagner if you have to, but I think he has use for a season.

    Its gets waaaay easier in summer of 2020.

    Edit: Benning for an ELC would save $1MM as well.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They have enough to sign Connolly.

    Its gets waaaay easier in summer of 2020

    and a goalie of substance? I don’t think so.

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jaxon: This has been a great thread. I’m just curious about one thing, does Connolly still have slow boots? And, if so, does it matter? Is that a red flag as far as whether he can sustain as he approaches 30? Does it matter if we hope for him to possibly play with McDavid?

    Still not a burner, but can play.

    I see him more with RNH.

    I bet he’s smart enough to play with McDavid.

    Find soft ice in the dzone while everyone chases McDavid on the zone entry and BAM!

  130. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand that.My point is simple – no matter who capfriendly currently lists on the roster, to the extent any of those players are buried, it doesn’t create $1.075M in cap savings as that player will be replaced – generally by an under $1M player (for some savings) but, of course, that $1.075M can be used as part of the cap hit of an external player coming in.

    I think the Oilers will be running 8D/13F and, any “burying” of a guy like Manning, doesn’t really create much cap b/c the replacement, will only be a few hundred grand cheaper, if that.

    OK, I get the confusion now if you’re assuming they run 8D. Not sure why they’d do that, but if so then yes, burying Manning wouldn’t change much.

    All that said, what I said above about having about $7M to allocate between a G and the last two forwards (with the others assumed to cost ~800k each) doesn’t change as you have the same number of roster slots to fill regardless of 13F/8D vs 14F/7D. And either way that number (for the 3 larger acquisitions) gets up over $8M with a Gagner buyout.

  131. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Don’t disagree with you at all.

    What about the cool hand Luke factor aka the scouting on Koskinen’s glove hand?

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: and a goalie of substance? I don’t think so.

    Meh.

    Won’t cost more than $2.5MM.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Don’t disagree with you at all.

    What about the cool hand Luke factor aka the scouting on Koskinen’s glove hand?

    Maybe he can hold it higher if he isn’t tired?

  134. Ari says:

    Really enjoying today’s entire thread. I appreciate how posters respond to each other with thoughtful responses rather than spouting off their own opinions with no rationale.

    My obsession with the Oilers is never greater than from draft to July 2nd.

  135. GMB3 says:

    Jaxon: From Connolly’s Wikipedia page:

    “Raised in Prince George, British Columbia, Connolly was selected by his hometown Prince George Cougars[1] as their first selection, tenth overall, in the 2007 WHL Bantam Draft.”

    Born in Campbell River, Raised in PG.

    I’m pretty sure he moved there around his second year bantam. I’m golf buddies with a few guys who played with and against him up until then. Had a friend in my program in uni from pmac that is pretty close with him. I think he’s from Pprt Hardy actually. I wouldn’t equate living on the island to living in Edmonton at all, but I guess he spent a few more years in PG than I thought.

  136. Bulging Twine says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    GP and 5v5 SV% for EDM goalies per month
    Per month isn’t ideal splits, but its close enough

    October
    Talbot – 10gp – .929
    Koskinen – 1gp – .938
    McLellan with his usual even hand.

    November
    Talbot – 5gp – .884
    Koskinen – 10gp – .938

    From October 6th – November 11th Talbot played 13 games.
    13 games in 37 days.2.84 days per game and he started to crash

    December
    Talbot – 6gp – .905
    Koskinen – 9gp – .919

    From November 11 to December 16th Koskinen played 13 games
    13 games in 35 days.2.69 days per game and he started to crash.

    Got a Xmas break but was meh
    McLellan fired in late November, Hitch kept riding the horse.

    January
    Tablot – 6gp – .908
    Koskinen – 8gp .896

    Koskinen got 5 games from Dec 27 – Jan8th.
    12 days. 2.4 days per game

    Talbot got 5 games from Dec 27-Jan 8th too because they kept relieving each other. Ha!

    February
    Talbot 4gp – .921 – traded Feb. 16th
    Koskinen 11gp – .912
    Stolarz 1 gp – 1.00

    March – Apr
    Koskinen – 16 gp – .917
    Stolarz – 5gp – .912

    From Feb 13 – Apr 2nd Koskinen played 24 games.
    24 games in 48 days.
    2 days per game.
    Man.

    For comparison:
    Rask was on the low end of starters this year and played 46 games in 186 days for 4.04 days per game.

    If a starter is healthy and dresses for every game and gets in 54 starts + 4 reliefs that’s 59 games in 186 days (or so) for 3.15 days per game.

    Oiler goalies have been rode hard and put away wet then screamed at for getting worse during the season for eons.

    It doesn’t help.

    Especially with no Sekera and wonky backs/shoulders/hands for the other guys over the past 2 years.

    Get this info to Tippett!!

    (good stuff)

  137. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: His value may be higher this summer but roster wise its too risky and next summer, with more progression from our young D, it makes more sense for our roster.

    I’m also not sure his trade value will be higher next year.Yes, this year he is on a value deal but any team acquiring him knows that’s only for one year and that he’s going to get paid next off-season.GMs know he’s going to be expensive soon.Yes, that one year has value but its not like this is McKinnon or Schieffle’s contract.

    Also, there is a very decent change that Nurse doesn’t approach 40 points again – both Klef and Sekera, if they stay healthy, will eat PP time – Persson might do the same.Jones might do the same.Bear might do the same.Bouchard might do the same.If that’s the case, he may come in closer to $6M and I’ll take Nurse at $6.25 X 8 any day.

    Agreed that Nurse’s contract value is not comparable to the players you mentioned.

    That being said, there’s still a time to buy and sell an asset to maximize the return. Many Gm’s are short-sighted.

    There’s a downside to Pollyanna thinking..

    What if… the Oilers don’t find a material backup or legit top six winger next season…

    The Oilers finish in the lottery and Nurse demands a trade… Trouba’ed!

    Or Klefbom and Sekera get injured… Nurse soaks up the pp1 minutes and posts a ton of points that he never sees again… Bad Contract’ed.

    In a minute there is time.

    For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.

    I’ll hit the posterity button “sell sell sell” and hope I’m wrong like Cramer.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I am against a Russell trade at this time.

    We will check back tomorrow

  139. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Passing thought…

    Within an approximately 2 year period Chia got the Oilers the best and worst contracts in the NHL. In one case he had to assess talent and project future outcomes and in the other he did not.

  140. leadfarmer says:

    I’ve been a big proponent of 2:1 plan for goalies for sometime 2 games for starter 1 game for backup.
    Starter should not play more than 50 games
    So 50 games for starter 25-30 for backup 2-7 for development goalie
    Need to limit their at bats
    Some goalies like Talbot say the more they play the better they play which is just not right

  141. Nit64 says:

    Ari: My obsession with the Oilers is never greater than from draft to July 2nd.

    My worry about Oilers is never greater than from draft to July 2nd. 😉

    Signings after July 2nd are less scary.

  142. Ryan says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Passing thought…

    Within an approximately 2 year period Chia got the Oilers the best and worst contracts in the NHL. In one case he had to assess talent and project future outcomes and in the other he did not.

    McDavid negotiated his own discount.

    Draisatl’s contract was not viewed favorably when it was signed.

    … 50 goal 105 point season later… league-wide inflation on superstars later…

    It’s a value contract.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid provided no discount – no contract that has the highest cap hit in the NHL, by apx 20%, is a discount. He’s turned out to provide full value for that contract but it was not a discount – % of cap be damned. The org did a great job getting the fan-base ready for 12.5M with their $13.25M (or whatever it was) leak.

  144. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: Klefbom/Larsson
    Sekera/Nurse
    Russell/Benning (Jones)

    ?

    If not for Sekera injury recovery uncertainty, I could see Klefbom traded.

  145. misfit says:

    I approve this post

  146. SVR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If there is a better replacement, then by all means.

    Today they don’t have the depth.

    Sekera-Nurse would probably be better than Russell-Nurse, but who plays 3rd pair?

    Jones-Pearsson?

    What happens when a top 4 guy gets hurt?

    So Jones goes to the top 4 and Laggesson comes up to play 3rd pair or Manning?

    Next year it will be way more prudent to move away from him.

    Maybe even later in 19/20 if Jones/Pearsson/? plays really well.

    Can Benning lead a successful third pair?

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Nurse
    Jones Benning

  147. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid provided no discount – no contract that has the highest cap hit in the NHL, by apx 20%, is a discount.He’s turned out to provide full value for that contract but it was not a discount – % of cap be damned. The org did a great job getting the fan-base ready for 12.5M with their $13.25M (or whatever it was) leak.

    Completely agree. A Rfa contract that was almost 20% higher than the nearest UFA contract is not a discount.
    Mcdavid got paid.
    Now it will be a complete steal in 5 years as will the Draisatl contract but on the day they were signed they both got very generous deals

  148. rickithebear says:

    Leadfarmer still thinks this is the 80,s

    Sorry buddy teams do not consistently get to compete for championships in the last 25 years without strong open HD dman depth.

    Season avg density in any season.
    X = avg success SH% of Open LDSH

    OHDSH = Open High Danger shot
    OLDSH = Open Low Danger shot
    CHDSH – Closed High Danger shot
    CLDSH – Closed Low Danger shot

    OHDSH density = 5X
    OLDSH density = 1X
    CHDSH density = 0X = 0.00 sh%
    CLDSH density = 0X = 0.00 sh%

    Every day I watch Russell the most elite dman in the game
    at making highest % of Corsi faced ( dependent on fwd NZ Defence)
    Have a shot density of 0.00%

    99+% of the people on here believe that is not the best thing a dman can do for a goalie.

    My world we need as many even goals from the available cap
    Last year on oilers 42 goals were scored by the 14 players Who had 7.17 seasons of games.
    42/7.17 = 5.86 goals per 82 games from the 14

    I want as many even goals from the 631 man games for as cheap as possible.

    Today I have been starting to accumulate a list of players.
    Here are examples

    Shpg – shots per game
    SHD – shot density
    2-3 3 yr avg unless season indicated
    Connaly
    18-19 81gm 21evg 1.57 shpg 16.54% shd
    16/17-17/18 68gm 12 evg 1.01 shpg 19.05 shd
    Connally has allways been an elite open space targeted.
    But his shot volume has allways been low till last year.
    Scares the crap out of me.
    He made 1.5M last year.
    This year talk of 3.5 to 5M

    Donskoi 73gm 12.5 evg 1.55 shpg 11.74% shd 1.9M last yr. top playoff producer .5+ ppg,
    Vanek 71gm 13.33 evg 1.42 shpg 13.25% shd
    Pomminville 78gm 12.67 evg 1.79 shpg 9.09% shd.
    Ferland 75gm 12.33 evg 1.47 shpg 11.25% shd.
    Johansson 78gm 12.0 evg 1.33 shpg 11.61% Shd.
    Chaisson 77gm 11.5 evg 1.16 shpg 12.92% Shd.
    Piri 61gm 11.17 evg 1.58 shpg 11.55% shd.
    Panik 74gm 10.5 evg 1.57 shpg 8.55% shd.
    Hartman 81gm 10.5 evg 1.55 shpg 8.40% shd.
    Filppula 77gm 9.67 evg .84 shpg 14.87% shd
    Brouwer 79gm 8.67 evg 1.06 shpg 10.08% shd
    Lindbergh 63gm 8.33 evg 1.33 shpg 10.08% shd
    Sheehan 78 gm 8.0 evg 1.18 shpg 8.74% shd
    Paajarvi 64gm 7.67 evg 1.40 shpg 8.58% shd
    When you start to look at players last year cap hits
    What they expect versus the historical sh vol & density
    I want the most evg per M cap. While having realistic shot volume replace of the 14 forwards from last season.

    Off to watch Black Spot on Netflix.

  149. leadfarmer says:

    One good thing you can say is from the Vanek contract to the Mcdavid contract to the Koskinen contract is we’re creating cap messes for every other team

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    SVR: Can Benning lead a successful third pair?

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Nurse
    Jones Benning

    I’d be comfortable with Lagesson in Jones’ spot as well.

    I agree with the premise that the org is a year away from potentially being able to move on from an incumbent top 4 without pain but what they do have now, for the first time in years, are NHL ready (or damn close) players waiting for call-up – nope, they aren’t top 4 ready but, when you say: “bring up Lagesson for the 3rd pair” – that’s a great think. He’s NHL ready, just needs to get the chance.

    There will be 3-4 options in Bakersfield for call-ups – options that have real ability to come to the NHL, with skill and contribute – its been decades.

  151. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Our bear friend still thinks defense are for d only and offense is for offense only
    Might as well get off the ice if your a defenseman when puck crosses center ice
    There’s a reason Ricki d are a endangered species
    All your guys from Manning to Fayne are out of the league
    Because doesn’t matter how good you defend you are always defending therefore you are a net negative
    Yet somehow I’m supposedly stuck in the past?
    That’s why Ricki d are being given away

  152. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: Completely agree.A Rfa contract that was almost 20% higher than the nearest UFA contract is not a discount.
    Mcdavid got paid.
    Now it will be a complete steal in 5 years as will the Draisatl contract but on the day they were signed they both got very generous deals

    You guys are killing me.

    I’m not making this up.

    Iirc Stauffer promulgated that McDavid left money on the table (750 k) ostensibly so that the Oilers could afford to ice a competitive team.

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/mcdavid-like-others-before-him-leaves-money-on-the-table-for-oilers-in-pursuit-of-cup

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/twitter-reacts-to-connor-mcdavid-signing-its-a-great-day-for-oilers-fans

  153. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Quote from Howson today (via Nugent Bowman):

    When it comes to Bouchard and Samorukov (both at dev’t camp), Bear, Jones, Persson, Lagesson:
    “There’s always a spot if somebody’s ready … We would expect at least one, maybe two, young defencemen to make the team.”

    —————

    To me, this is a disappointing statement since, two weeks ago, Keith Gretzky said: over the years they’ve come to camp expected graduating CHL/AHL players to make the team and its been a mistake – essentially meaning they won’t expect and count on these kids to make the team – of course, they can compete and win a spot but will pencil in established players.This statement runs counter to that.

    I think you’re reading too much into the comment, if that’s the direct quote. I expect one of the AHL guys to win a spot as well. Doesn’t necessarily mean they will.

  154. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid provided no discount – no contract that has the highest cap hit in the NHL, by apx 20%, is a discount.He’s turned out to provide full value for that contract but it was not a discount – % of cap be damned. The org did a great job getting the fan-base ready for 12.5M with their $13.25M (or whatever it was) leak.

    C’mon.

    If I were tasked with negotiating McDavid’s second contract, I would have said, “the term is 8-years. Non-negotiable. Write down the AAV you want, and let’s get this signed.”

  155. rickithebear says:

    Binary academics choose a an analytic hill to play on.
    Investing countless analysis on what is important game analysis to them.

    When doing any of my industrial analysis.
    We do simple pre tests on parts of the Buisness to seem what +ve economic impact is available.
    We look for variables that hint at 33-50+%.
    It is a quick and intelligent purge.

    Step one to hockey analysis.
    I have pointed out look at the large actor that affect the game.
    Concentrate multivariable Analysis on these actors.

    Look at current binary analysis that has huge multivariable flaws
    Purge these from the hockey analysis industry.

    Look at low % actors that occupy to much money & time in the industry.
    Purge these from the hockey analysis world.
    It is not cap intelligent analysis.

    Most on here present old ideas that have .1 to 2.5% affects.
    I purged them long ago.

    DFF is the least accurate measure of goal performance.
    Being up to 200% less accurate than current accepted terms corsi, etc.
    Differentiate by OHDSH & Closed shot up to 500% less accurate.
    Which I have told you years ago.

    2D situational charting is not flawed it is completely wrong when you exclude the other 3 large actor situations.
    PDO is an unsupported guess that allows people with no understanding of analysis to think they are doing analysis.

    One of my theorems disprove PDO.

  156. Pescador says:

    Ryan: C’mon.

    If I were tasked with negotiating McDavid’s second contract, I would have said, “the term is 8-years. Non-negotiable. Write down the AAV you want, and let’s get this signed.”

    Who in their wildest dreams could ever have imagined that the cap would increase over time?
    McDavid’s AAV in years 1-8 will run something like:
    Market value.
    Incredible value
    Extreme value
    Ridiculous value
    Spectacular value
    Larceny
    Grand Larceny
    White collar crime

  157. Reja says:

    leadfarmer:
    One good thing you can say is from the Vanek contract to the Mcdavid contract to the Koskinen contract is we’re creating cap messes for every other team

    How about Gretzky’s 21 year contract in 1979 the longest contract as far as I know in any of the major sports history.

  158. Pescador says:

    rickithebear:

    Leadfarmer still thinks this is the 80,s

    That’s why he still has that Rob Lowe poster pinned up in his garage
    Corey Feldman called to say “what’s up?”

  159. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer: We will check back tomorrow

    I got a chuckle out of this

  160. JimmyV1965 says:

    The NHL is one tough league to figure out. The Leafs dump Marleau’s $6 mill in cap space and it costs them a first round pick. The Avs dump Soderberg’s $5 mill in cap space and actually get a third round pick in return. This league is a real mind bender.

  161. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965:
    The NHL is one tough league to figure out. The Leafs dump Marleau’s $6 mill in cap space and it costs them a first round pick. The Avs dump Soderberg’s $5 mill in cap space and actually get a third round pick in return. This league is a real mind bender.

    Leaf’s boxed themselves in and every other GM could smell blood. Avs weren’t cornered – no smell of blood.

  162. rickithebear says:

    Leadfarmer:

    When I first applied my +ve goal actor analysis.
    Critical factors became clear in goal diff analysis.
    1. 3-2-1 ga rate was a high % +ve actor versus -ve 3-1-1-1 defence.

    2. Forwards generate goal at 4 times greater pace than dmen
    A.The top 5 off dmen in league generate even offence at #6 to #9 forward.
    B.#6 to #270 generate even offence at a #10 to AHL level forward.

    3. You want the forwards to have pocession of puck as quickly as possible.

    4. The only +ve even off skill of dmen are
    A. Transition pass to forwards central to NZ to avoid traps.
    B. 4 option on a down low pass to a dman coming down to mid top circle for a shot. Without subjecting team to counterattack againstba 1–1-1 structure. Return to 2-1 is critical or it is a huge -ve.
    C. OZ pass to opposite side for quick release high open shot yeild rate.

    5. Rovers generate high -ve royal differentials relative to average.

    Our Dman has to skate the puck up.

    Teams who advance to and well into the playoffs have usually added
    1.+ve Open sh save% goalies.
    2. Top open sh HD reduction dmen

    Since you could not recognize the players who fit my cup core structure if they hit you in the face.
    How can you understand modern value when it comes to winning a cup.

    Flyers made interesting moves already this year.
    Niskanen a 1st comp HD dman in top 20
    Braun a 1st comp HD dman in top 20
    2 of 4-5 pieces of the even GA portion of championship roster

    K. Hayes 3 yr avg 7.143 cap hit.
    74gm 20.33G 29A 49P equals 1.26 top 125 fwd
    Even 13.33G 1.57 shpg 11.40% SHD

    When you see this even production.

    We have 4 wing slots & 1 center Slot that could use
    Veterans as near Hayes production even production with as cheap a cap cost as possible.
    Donskoi 1.9 M last year
    73gm 12.5evg 1.46 shpg 11.74% shd
    Ferland 1.8M last year
    75gm 12.33 evg 1.47 shpg
    Panik 2.8M last year
    74gm 10.5 evg 1.57 shpg 8.55% shd
    Hartman .875M last yr
    81gm 10.5evg 1.55 shpg 8.40% shd
    Caggulia 1.5M
    61gm 9.5 evg 1.43 shpg 10.86% shd
    Archibald .700M
    68gm 9.33 evg 1.12 shpg 13.68% shd
    Lindberg 1.8M last year
    63gm 9 evg 1.39 shpg 9.97% Shd
    Ma. Granlund 1.475M last year
    66gm 9 evg 1.20 shpg 10.76% shd
    Paajarvi .900 last yr
    81 gm 8 evg 1.20 shpg 9.88% Shd
    Sheehan 2.1M last year
    78gm 8 evg 1.18 shpg 8.74% shd

  163. rickithebear says:

    Pescador: That’s why he still has that Rob Lowe poster pinned up in his garage
    Corey Feldman called to say “what’s up?”

    Come on!

    Lead Is a NKOTB fan!

  164. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Still not a burner, but can play.

    I see him more with RNH.

    I bet he’s smart enough to play with McDavid.

    Find soft ice in the dzone while everyone chases McDavid on the zone entry and BAM!

    Just read his scouting reports from his draft year. I’m not sure who I was thinking of (Mark Stone maybe?), but his reports all mention his great skating and speed, and his ability to make plays at high speed. Sorry for derailing the Connolly conversation with worries of speed. Also, yes, playing with Nugent-Hopkins makes sense, but I’d like to see the team move more toward a speed identity, and I think they’re getting there. I’m now officially on board for Connolly, haha. They need my approval before moving forward with this, right?

  165. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If there is a better replacement, then by all means.

    Today they don’t have the depth.

    Sekera-Nurse would probably be better than Russell-Nurse, but who plays 3rd pair?

    Jones-Pearsson?

    What happens when a top 4 guy gets hurt?

    So Jones goes to the top 4 and Laggesson comes up to play 3rd pair or Manning?

    Next year it will be way more prudent to move away from him.

    Maybe even later in 19/20 if Jones/Pearsson/? plays really well.

    Nurse-Benning is much better than Nurse-Russell, I’d go with that and have Sekera mentor a rookie on the 3rd pairing.

  166. ArmchairGM says:

    SVR: Can Benning lead a successful third pair?

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Nurse
    Jones Benning

    Sure he can, and Jones proved capable of 3rd pairing minutes this past year. I’d be comfortable running Nurse-Benning on the 2nd pair too, but between him and Sekera I think they can cover 2RD effectively.

  167. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    ArmchairGM – great work today.

    Seriously.

    You have sold me on Connolly….

    Thanks McSorley, that means a lot.

  168. ArmchairGM says:

    Numenius: I don’t appreciate the “you’re an idiot” innuendo. There’s no need for personal attacks. I’m just a guy seeking the truth here.

    My apologies if I came across that way to you. I sometimes do that without realizing (because I am often an idiot :-)), so I understand how it can happen.

    I was just pointing out two reasons that I thought your case was slightly overstated.

    I did check my facts and your numbers here proved my point. Nothing I said was false.

    But you also did a good job of showing that the differences aren’t as significant as they seem when you drill into them in more detail.

    Nice work.

    Let’s go get Connolly!

    I apologize for my tone, Numenius, and I appreciate your commentary here.

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Im now in the Connolly camp and excited that we are talking to him. Would be excited to see him at anything less than $4m x 3years ( or even at that and 1 more year UFA premium if we had too).

    I’d like that too. The $3-4M range is the sweet spot here and has the potential to be a serious value deal.

  170. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Armchair has made a very good case for Connolly and bump in actual production as an Oiler but I caution that performing at a certain level at 12 min of 5 on 5 a game is not the same as doing so at 16-18 min per game.PP are “easier” minutes but we are talking about his P60 as a top 6 guy now with increased tough minutes.Of course, better linemates too, potentially.

    When you look at my projections, I used Chiasson’s TOI which bumped Connolly’s 5v5 goals from 21 last year to a potential 23 next. From 12:15 to 13:12. Not much of a bump.

    If I had used Draisaitl’s TOI you would have a point.

    But basically the bump I’m projecting (potential for 30+ goals) is due to PP time available in Edmonton that wasn’t in Washington. If he scores at his 3-year pace on RNH’s wing + adds 10 or so on the PP (Chiasson scored 8 last year) he’ll be over 30. Its not guaranteed by any means but I don’t think it’s a stretch either.

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    After having watched some of Connolly’s highlights from last year I’m even more convinced that Holland should make every effort to acquire Burakovsky and get him on a 2-3 year deal for around $2M if possible. He has all the tools.

    Burakovsky and Connolly played together a lot, so having them flank RNH gives us a pretty decent 2nd line. And while I know Holland has spoken about the importance of addressing the needs on the bottom-6, remember that every legitimate top-6 forward we procure pushes someone down the lineup, improving the skill level of the 3rd and 4th lines by default.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: You guys are killing me.

    I’m not making this up.

    Iirc Stauffer promulgated that McDavid left money on the table (750 k) ostensibly so that the Oilers could afford to ice a competitive team.

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/mcdavid-like-others-before-him-leaves-money-on-the-table-for-oilers-in-pursuit-of-cup

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/twitter-reacts-to-connor-mcdavid-signing-its-a-great-day-for-oilers-fans

    Yes, he did and, of course, that was PR driven.

    $13.25M was outside the realm of reasonableness at the time – many were thinking the contract would/should come in around $10M. $13.25M was leaked so that $12.5M wouldn’t look so bad.

    $12.5M was $2M more than the highest cap hit at the time.

    McDavid got paid!

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: C’mon.

    If I were tasked with negotiating McDavid’s second contract, I would have said, “the term is 8-years. Non-negotiable. Write down the AAV you want, and let’s get this signed.”

    If that’s the case, I would hope that you are immediately removed from your duties because that’s not how negotiations work, nor should work – even when dealing with the best in the field.

    That’s not what happened with any other player in the cap era – including Crosby, Ovechkin, etc.

  174. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: If that’s the case, I would hope that you are immediately removed from your duties because that’s not how negotiations work, nor should work – even when dealing with the best in the field.

    That’s not what happened with any other player in the cap era – including Crosby, Ovechkin, etc.

    Bob Nicholson said almost exactly that though, and he has not been removed from office yet (to our chagrin).

    When asked how much they would pay McDavid, during the season I think, he chuckled and said,

    “Whatever he wants.”

    At the time I thought it was extremely odd that an executive amid negotiations would give a public show of cards and a public blank slate like that, and thought the agent would run with that to Elysium.

    I think that was his and Chiarelli’s plan all along. Guarantee 8 years to start, and have McDavid’s agent make the salary number. Apparently that’s exactly what happened, and then McDavid asked his agent to lower the AAV. How many top superstars of their leagues would ask their agent to lower the cap hit, despite increasing term?

    Not Ronaldo. Not Mbappé. Not Trout or Harper.

    Maybe only Tom Brady, to be honest. McDavid is our Tom Brady. He’s that special and important to the team, as well as being as intricately woven into the team’s decision making. Let’s go get those 6 Cups.

  175. Lowetide says:

    McDavid’s contract bought several UFA seasons. He gave Edmonton a break. I understand it’s cool to be provocative but the idea 97 “got paid” fails to recognize the unique situation of the moment. He wanted a contract like Matthew, Oilers wanted all the years. Value deal when it was signed and it gets better every second.

  176. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    McDavid’s contract bought several UFA seasons. He gave Edmonton a break. I understand it’s cool to be provocative but the idea 97 “got paid” fails to recognize the unique situation of the moment. He wanted a contract like Matthew, Oilers wanted all the years. Value deal when it was signed and it gets better every second.

    With him and Draisaitl on our side, I still believe in the Oilers.

  177. ArmchairGM says:

    I’ve been doing a little research on Ryan Hartman, he looks like a very good bet for the bottom-6 with some upside, too. He’s 24, plays an aggressive, gritty game and scores about 30 points per 82.

    If anybody has knowledge or opinions on the player I’d be glad to hear them!

  178. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I hope he catches the biggest fish possible.

  179. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q:
    ArmchairGM,

    I hope he catches the biggest fish possible.

    😄

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I’ve been doing a little research on Ryan Hartman, he looks like a very good bet for the bottom-6 with some upside, too. He’s 24, plays an aggressive, gritty game and scores about 30 points per 82.

    If anybody has knowledge or opinions on the player I’d be glad to hear them!

    His production looks good (but for last year) but I read yesterday that has metrics were awful last year and not good the year before – I haven’t verified or looked in to context. At first blush, yes, he seems like a solid option for some cheap skill in the bottom 6.

  181. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20

    https://theathletic.com/1045160/2019/06/26/lowetide-taking-stock-of-oilers-prospects-ready-to-graduate-with-a-clear-shot-at-an-nhl-job-in-2019-20/

  182. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: His production looks good (but for last year) but I read yesterday that has metrics were awful last year and not good the year before – I haven’t verified or looked in to context.At first blush, yes, he seems like a solid option for some cheap skill in the bottom 6.

    Interesting that his QO was for $918k and Dallas declined.

  183. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I know “30-40” is going to see ridiculous to some, but I think its possible. He scored 1.27 g/60 at 5v5 last year, if you extrapolate that based on Chiasson’s TOI you get 23 goals. It’s a little harder to gauge PP production because he gets to little TOI (he plays the Ovi spot, not the Oshie spot, hence the lack of TOI) but if you look at the 3 years previous you’ll see he scored 2.02, 2.02 and 2.37 g/60, which works out to about another 10 goals. These numbers are based on his scoring rates playing alongside Lars Eller without accounting for the inevitable McDavid Bump. Even playing with Nuge would likely push his number up a little.

    Not trying to single you out here Armchair, as a number of other posters are also pumping Connolly’s potential and the likely bump he’ll see with more TOI/PPTOI.

    But I haven’t seen much on his actual PP production beyond that he didn’t get much opportunity.

    I’m not sure where the G/60 numbers above come from, but from NST he’d done the following at 5on4 in his Washington career:
    16-17 0:27TOI/G 2.02G/60 2.02P/60
    17-18 1:25TOI/G 2.45G/60 3.06P/60
    18-19 0:55TOI/G 0.8G/60 0.8P/60

    Put that together and you have 203min, 1.77G/60 2.36P/60. That P/60 number is 227th of 247 forwards with >200min over the past 3 years. The G/60 number is 94th of 247, so slightly above average. His on ice GF/60 was 5.62/60, 194th of the 247 forwards. Overall this is quite weak PP production/results.

    If you can believe it, his 5on5 P/60 was 2.19 over the same span, so barely a bump in production when he’s on the PP (though more goals vs assists).

    So, who were his most common teammates when on the PP? In order of TOI together, Ovechkin, Orlov, Carlson, Kusnetsov, Eller, Vrana, Burakovsky, Backstrom. He was getting lots of time with the Caps top players. Every one of those players (including the D, Eller, Vrana, Burakovsky) had a higher 5on5 P/60 than Connolly.

    This isn’t a deal breaker, and I do think the player is a good bet if the price doesn’t get too high. I also think these numbers should give us a some pause when penciling him in as a plus PP producer because of his good shot though.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    McDavid’s contract bought several UFA seasons. He gave Edmonton a break. I understand it’s cool to be provocative but the idea 97 “got paid” fails to recognize the unique situation of the moment. He wanted a contract like Matthew, Oilers wanted all the years. Value deal when it was signed and it gets better every second.

    I don’t disagree that McDavid could have got more money – of course he could have. Those demands wouldn’t have been reasonable though. When signed, his contract was on the high end of reasonable. He could have got more, it would have been unreasonable. His contract was fair, barely. Not demanding Demanding an unreasonable amount is not the same as giving a break.

    I understand that my opinion is the minority view but the other view is also just an opinion. I am not wrong, nor am I “right”.

  185. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    But between your work and Woodguys additional supporting arguements, its clear to me now why people like you,( especially LT ), Woodguy and others have been right for a while now.

    I don’t think we are “right”

    I think we make an argument that it’s a good bet.

    Tulupov could blow him up in the Joey Moss Cup and wreck his hip again.

    Lots of possible outcomes, but mostly good ones imo.

    I get the distinction. I should have been more accurate with my word choice.

    Between your work (ArmchairGM) and Woodguys additional supporting arguements, its “now” clear to me why people like you (ArmchairGM) and ( especially LT whose been on the record with Connolly for weeks now, months?), Woodguy and others have been right to point to / target Connolly as as a “reasonable / good” bet for the Oilers to make based on: their current roster structure, thier current Cap structure, the available pool of UFA forwards, Connolly’s even strength scoring P/60, and the potential price point for Brett Connolly.

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: His production looks good (but for last year) but I read yesterday that has metrics were awful last year and not good the year before – I haven’t verified or looked in to context.At first blush, yes, he seems like a solid option for some cheap skill in the bottom 6.

    12 goals + 14 assists isn’t bad for bottom-6 production – and a huge improvement on what we had last year!

    His shot metrics seem to be okay except for the 19 game stint in Philadelphia late in the season. He scored at 1.59 P/60 but saw his GF% cratered by .885 Sv% (5v5) goaltending.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8477451

  187. ArmchairGM says:

    frjohnk: Interesting that his QO was for $918k and Dallas declined.

    Yes, I thought so too. Might be a good bet for the 4th line at that rate.

  188. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Not trying to single you out here Armchair, as a number of other posters are also pumping Connolly’s potential and the likely bump he’ll see with more TOI/PPTOI.

    But I haven’t seen much on his actual PP production beyond that he didn’t get much opportunity.

    I’m not sure where the G/60 numbers above come from, but from NST he’d done the following at 5on4 in his Washington career:
    16-17 0:27TOI/G 2.02G/60 2.02P/60
    17-18 1:25TOI/G 2.45G/60 3.06P/60
    18-19 0:55TOI/G 0.8G/60 0.8P/60

    Put that together and you have 203min, 1.77G/60 2.36P/60. That P/60 number is 227th of 247 forwards with >200min over the past 3 years. The G/60 number is 94th of 247, so slightly above average. His on ice GF/60 was 5.62/60, 194th of the 247 forwards. Overall this is quite weak PP production/results.

    If you can believe it, his 5on5 P/60 was 2.19 over the same span, so barely a bump in production when he’s on the PP (though more goals vs assists).

    So, who were his most common teammates when on the PP? In order of TOI together, Ovechkin, Orlov, Carlson, Kusnetsov, Eller, Vrana, Burakovsky, Backstrom. He was getting lots of time with the Caps top players. Every one of those players (including the D, Eller, Vrana, Burakovsky) had a higher 5on5 P/60 than Connolly.

    This isn’t a deal breaker, and I do think the player is a good bet if the price doesn’t get too high. I also think these numbers should give us a some pause when penciling him in as a plus PP producer because of his good shot though.

    No worries JP. The slight difference between your numbers and mine can be explained thus: you searched 5v4 while I searched Power Play. The latter gives a slightly wider scope (5v4, 5v3, 4v3) which I thought might tell us more due to the overall lack of sample size in the numbers.

  189. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree that McDavid could have got more money – of course he could have.Those demands wouldn’t have been reasonable though.When signed, his contract was on the high end of reasonable.He could have got more, it would have been unreasonable. His contract was fair, barely.Not demanding Demanding an unreasonable amount is not the same as giving a break.

    I understand that my opinion is the minority view but the other view is also just an opinion. I am not wrong, nor am I “right”.

    Reasonable people can disagree, McDavid’s contract was “the best value contract in the NHL at the time it was signed. He could have signed at league maximum which was around $14 or $15m and it would still have been a value contract.

    Being a value contract is not about being relative to the contracts of others (Kane etc) Its about the value of the player to a franchise based on the concentration of skill in a single asset, the Term, an, in the Cap Era, the future value of the player.

    Its like Micheal Jordan, Kawhi Leonard, etc. Its not a question of if they get league maximum, its just a question of whose lucky enough to have them on the roster at league max. IMO

    AND, I’m just referencing his “on ice” value; Bring his potential commercial/business value into the equation and the value in the value proposition increases exponentially, ala Tiger Woods in his prime, Tom Brady, etc

  190. Rube Foster says:

    ArmchairGM: 2)

    Terrific work on the Connolly data Mr. Armchair! Thank you.

    Honest question, now that we’ve made it past the expecting phase and know that Burakovsky is qualified at $3.25M. How do you propose we acquire him at $2M? Are you suggesting a deal with The Caps where they retain $1.25M?

  191. Andy Dufresne says:

    Rube Foster: Terrific work on the Connolly data Mr. Armchair! Thank you.

    Honest question, now that we’ve made it past the expecting phase and know that Burakovsky is qualified at $3.25M. How do you propose we acquire him at $2M?Are you suggesting a deal with The Caps where they retain $1.25M?

    I realize youre not asking me, and I hope Armchair GM repsonds, but I would hazard a guess that anyone hoping to sign Burakovsky is also hoping that Washington qualified him not so much because they are hell bent on retaining him, but because they calculated his value and didnt want to lose him for nothing.

    So, I would guess the hope is that they would be looking to trade him for a player /prospect who fits under their cap structure.

    Would maybe look something like Burakovsky for Benning ( if they need a RHD) or Burakovsky for a Prospect (like Lagesson or Caleb Jones).

    ( I get that many posters here wouldnt give up Jones for Burakovsky, just using him as an example)

    Im not saying this is whats happening, I dont know. But it is one scenario under which he could be traded for.

  192. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan: You guys are killing me.

    I’m not making this up.

    Iirc Stauffer promulgated that McDavid left money on the table (750 k) ostensibly so that the Oilers could afford to ice a competitive team.

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/mcdavid-like-others-before-him-leaves-money-on-the-table-for-oilers-in-pursuit-of-cup

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/twitter-reacts-to-connor-mcdavid-signing-its-a-great-day-for-oilers-fans

    He said, “there’s a spare 750K. Now get me Manning!”

  193. Rube Foster says:

    Andy, appreciate you chiming in!

    I get the “why” Washington qualified Burakovsky, they obviously don’t want to lose him for nothing. That’s solid asset management.

    What I didn’t understand from Armchair’s previous post is the money side of the equation – Armchair was hoping we could acquire Burakovsky at salary range of $2M. My poorly worded question was how do we acquire Burakovsky at $2M when he’s already been qualified at $3.25M.

    I would love to have Burakovsky on the Oilers. Allan May who does the Caps broadcast was raving about how well Burakovsky played down the stretch and the playoffs.

    I am hoping that Armchair knows something that I don’t:)

  194. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: Interesting that his QO was for $918k and Dallas declined.

    Dallas was afraid of arbitration on Hartman. Would rather negotiate with him as a UFA.

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