As we approach free agency, and begin to hear names connect to the Oilers, we can make assumptions about the roster. For instance, Edmonton is going to acquire a veteran goaltender, meaning Shane Starrett will be in Bakersfield, the team isn’t going to acquire Tristan Jarry and Anthony Stolarz is down the line.
There are a plethora of defensemen available, meaning a Kris Russell trade is a distant bell, at least for now. Wingers? Brett Connolly is available but might take up most of the cap room available. What does that mean to the rest of procurement?
THE ATHLETIC
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
- New Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
- Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
- Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
- Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
RIGHT (NY) GARD?
Joakim Nygard is a fascinating cat. His NHLE is 19-13-32 and that would represent No. 2 line LW on this club. Can he handle that? I mean, he’s a speed demon and the SHL is a good league, but could he score 19 goals in the NHL with Nuge and maybe some power-play time?
Year over year Nygard looks consistent, he increased his shot and goal totals this past season, both campaigns look good (this is SHL).
50-MAN ROSTER (42)
Edmonton has to qualify several rfa’s today, that gets them back on the roster. Jesse Puljujarvi will be qualified, I assume Jujhar Khaira will be as well. After that, we may see all of Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin and Robin Norell walked. Edmonton has already indicated Tobias Rieder and Ty Rattie will not return.
CURRENT PROJECTED LINEUP
This is obviously not the final roster but does serve to show how much work Ken Holland has left to do this summer. Ideally, Starrett, Manning, Benson, Currie, Brodziak and possibly others are upgraded but there’s going to be too much month at the end of the money.
Edmonton has the cap room to get a goalie and one, two wingers. I think a buyout is possible.
GAETAN HAAS
Rumors online that the Oilers will sigh RH center Gaetan Haas in free agency after July 1. Here is the story. EP says he plays a reliable game, Haas scored 50, 15-23-38 for Bern last season (Mark Arcobello led the team in points with 53). Here’s how he would lineup NHLE compared to Edmonton’s prospects/minor leaguers.
I expect he’ll be fighting it out for a roster spot with a bunch of names on this list, as well as Colby Cave and Kyle Brodziak. His range of skills bodes well for him, and his skating (described as excellent) might be the key element for him in making the team.
We’ve had him on the radar for some time, looks like the Capitals winger is a real possibility. Here’s what I wrote back in March (here):
He’ll turn 27 in the spring, and has just posted his first 20-plus goal season in the NHL. Once viewed as a failed draft pick (he was No. 6 overall to Tampa Bay in 2010) Connolly has emerged as a reliable scoring winger who is just now reaching his peak value.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning with great guests and some meaty, beaty, big and bouncy things to discuss. It all starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us, we’ll talk the weekend draft and free agency to come. Sean Woodley will be by from Locked on Raptors and TSN1150 to talk awards, offseason and being cool around Kawhi. Finally, Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will discuss Edmonton’s draft and some of the big winners from last weekend. Talk soon! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Dallas was afraid of arbitration on Hartman. Would rather negotiate with him as a UFA.
Andy, appreciate you chiming in!
I get the “why” Washington qualified Burakovsky, they obviously don’t want to lose him for nothing. That’s solid asset management.
What I didn’t understand from Armchair’s previous post is the money side of the equation – Armchair was hoping we could acquire Burakovsky at salary range of $2M. My poorly worded question was how do we acquire Burakovsky at $2M when he’s already been qualified at $3.25M.
I would love to have Burakovsky on the Oilers. Allan May who does the Caps broadcast was raving about how well Burakovsky played down the stretch and the playoffs.
I am hoping that Armchair knows something that I don’t:)
He said, “there’s a spare 750K. Now get me Manning!”
I realize youre not asking me, and I hope Armchair GM repsonds, but I would hazard a guess that anyone hoping to sign Burakovsky is also hoping that Washington qualified him not so much because they are hell bent on retaining him, but because they calculated his value and didnt want to lose him for nothing.
So, I would guess the hope is that they would be looking to trade him for a player /prospect who fits under their cap structure.
Would maybe look something like Burakovsky for Benning ( if they need a RHD) or Burakovsky for a Prospect (like Lagesson or Caleb Jones).
( I get that many posters here wouldnt give up Jones for Burakovsky, just using him as an example)
Im not saying this is whats happening, I dont know. But it is one scenario under which he could be traded for.
Terrific work on the Connolly data Mr. Armchair! Thank you.
Honest question, now that we’ve made it past the expecting phase and know that Burakovsky is qualified at $3.25M. How do you propose we acquire him at $2M? Are you suggesting a deal with The Caps where they retain $1.25M?
Reasonable people can disagree, McDavid’s contract was “the best value contract in the NHL at the time it was signed. He could have signed at league maximum which was around $14 or $15m and it would still have been a value contract.
Being a value contract is not about being relative to the contracts of others (Kane etc) Its about the value of the player to a franchise based on the concentration of skill in a single asset, the Term, an, in the Cap Era, the future value of the player.
Its like Micheal Jordan, Kawhi Leonard, etc. Its not a question of if they get league maximum, its just a question of whose lucky enough to have them on the roster at league max. IMO
AND, I’m just referencing his “on ice” value; Bring his potential commercial/business value into the equation and the value in the value proposition increases exponentially, ala Tiger Woods in his prime, Tom Brady, etc
No worries JP. The slight difference between your numbers and mine can be explained thus: you searched 5v4 while I searched Power Play. The latter gives a slightly wider scope (5v4, 5v3, 4v3) which I thought might tell us more due to the overall lack of sample size in the numbers.
Yes, I thought so too. Might be a good bet for the 4th line at that rate.
12 goals + 14 assists isn’t bad for bottom-6 production – and a huge improvement on what we had last year!
His shot metrics seem to be okay except for the 19 game stint in Philadelphia late in the season. He scored at 1.59 P/60 but saw his GF% cratered by .885 Sv% (5v5) goaltending.
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8477451
I get the distinction. I should have been more accurate with my word choice.
Between your work (ArmchairGM) and Woodguys additional supporting arguements, its “now” clear to me why people like you (ArmchairGM) and ( especially LT whose been on the record with Connolly for weeks now, months?), Woodguy and others have been right to point to / target Connolly as as a “reasonable / good” bet for the Oilers to make based on: their current roster structure, thier current Cap structure, the available pool of UFA forwards, Connolly’s even strength scoring P/60, and the potential price point for Brett Connolly.
I don’t disagree that McDavid could have got more money – of course he could have. Those demands wouldn’t have been reasonable though. When signed, his contract was on the high end of reasonable. He could have got more, it would have been unreasonable. His contract was fair, barely. Not demanding Demanding an unreasonable amount is not the same as giving a break.
I understand that my opinion is the minority view but the other view is also just an opinion. I am not wrong, nor am I “right”.
Not trying to single you out here Armchair, as a number of other posters are also pumping Connolly’s potential and the likely bump he’ll see with more TOI/PPTOI.
But I haven’t seen much on his actual PP production beyond that he didn’t get much opportunity.
I’m not sure where the G/60 numbers above come from, but from NST he’d done the following at 5on4 in his Washington career:
16-17 0:27TOI/G 2.02G/60 2.02P/60
17-18 1:25TOI/G 2.45G/60 3.06P/60
18-19 0:55TOI/G 0.8G/60 0.8P/60
Put that together and you have 203min, 1.77G/60 2.36P/60. That P/60 number is 227th of 247 forwards with >200min over the past 3 years. The G/60 number is 94th of 247, so slightly above average. His on ice GF/60 was 5.62/60, 194th of the 247 forwards. Overall this is quite weak PP production/results.
If you can believe it, his 5on5 P/60 was 2.19 over the same span, so barely a bump in production when he’s on the PP (though more goals vs assists).
So, who were his most common teammates when on the PP? In order of TOI together, Ovechkin, Orlov, Carlson, Kusnetsov, Eller, Vrana, Burakovsky, Backstrom. He was getting lots of time with the Caps top players. Every one of those players (including the D, Eller, Vrana, Burakovsky) had a higher 5on5 P/60 than Connolly.
This isn’t a deal breaker, and I do think the player is a good bet if the price doesn’t get too high. I also think these numbers should give us a some pause when penciling him in as a plus PP producer because of his good shot though.
Interesting that his QO was for $918k and Dallas declined.
New for The Athletic: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
https://theathletic.com/1045160/2019/06/26/lowetide-taking-stock-of-oilers-prospects-ready-to-graduate-with-a-clear-shot-at-an-nhl-job-in-2019-20/
His production looks good (but for last year) but I read yesterday that has metrics were awful last year and not good the year before – I haven’t verified or looked in to context. At first blush, yes, he seems like a solid option for some cheap skill in the bottom 6.
?
ArmchairGM,
I hope he catches the biggest fish possible.
I’ve been doing a little research on Ryan Hartman, he looks like a very good bet for the bottom-6 with some upside, too. He’s 24, plays an aggressive, gritty game and scores about 30 points per 82.
If anybody has knowledge or opinions on the player I’d be glad to hear them!
With him and Draisaitl on our side, I still believe in the Oilers.
McDavid’s contract bought several UFA seasons. He gave Edmonton a break. I understand it’s cool to be provocative but the idea 97 “got paid” fails to recognize the unique situation of the moment. He wanted a contract like Matthew, Oilers wanted all the years. Value deal when it was signed and it gets better every second.
Bob Nicholson said almost exactly that though, and he has not been removed from office yet (to our chagrin).
When asked how much they would pay McDavid, during the season I think, he chuckled and said,
“Whatever he wants.”
At the time I thought it was extremely odd that an executive amid negotiations would give a public show of cards and a public blank slate like that, and thought the agent would run with that to Elysium.
I think that was his and Chiarelli’s plan all along. Guarantee 8 years to start, and have McDavid’s agent make the salary number. Apparently that’s exactly what happened, and then McDavid asked his agent to lower the AAV. How many top superstars of their leagues would ask their agent to lower the cap hit, despite increasing term?
Not Ronaldo. Not Mbappé. Not Trout or Harper.
Maybe only Tom Brady, to be honest. McDavid is our Tom Brady. He’s that special and important to the team, as well as being as intricately woven into the team’s decision making. Let’s go get those 6 Cups.
If that’s the case, I would hope that you are immediately removed from your duties because that’s not how negotiations work, nor should work – even when dealing with the best in the field.
That’s not what happened with any other player in the cap era – including Crosby, Ovechkin, etc.
Yes, he did and, of course, that was PR driven.
$13.25M was outside the realm of reasonableness at the time – many were thinking the contract would/should come in around $10M. $13.25M was leaked so that $12.5M wouldn’t look so bad.
$12.5M was $2M more than the highest cap hit at the time.
McDavid got paid!
After having watched some of Connolly’s highlights from last year I’m even more convinced that Holland should make every effort to acquire Burakovsky and get him on a 2-3 year deal for around $2M if possible. He has all the tools.
Burakovsky and Connolly played together a lot, so having them flank RNH gives us a pretty decent 2nd line. And while I know Holland has spoken about the importance of addressing the needs on the bottom-6, remember that every legitimate top-6 forward we procure pushes someone down the lineup, improving the skill level of the 3rd and 4th lines by default.
When you look at my projections, I used Chiasson’s TOI which bumped Connolly’s 5v5 goals from 21 last year to a potential 23 next. From 12:15 to 13:12. Not much of a bump.
If I had used Draisaitl’s TOI you would have a point.
But basically the bump I’m projecting (potential for 30+ goals) is due to PP time available in Edmonton that wasn’t in Washington. If he scores at his 3-year pace on RNH’s wing + adds 10 or so on the PP (Chiasson scored 8 last year) he’ll be over 30. Its not guaranteed by any means but I don’t think it’s a stretch either.
I’d like that too. The $3-4M range is the sweet spot here and has the potential to be a serious value deal.
I apologize for my tone, Numenius, and I appreciate your commentary here.
Thanks McSorley, that means a lot.
Sure he can, and Jones proved capable of 3rd pairing minutes this past year. I’d be comfortable running Nurse-Benning on the 2nd pair too, but between him and Sekera I think they can cover 2RD effectively.
Nurse-Benning is much better than Nurse-Russell, I’d go with that and have Sekera mentor a rookie on the 3rd pairing.
Just read his scouting reports from his draft year. I’m not sure who I was thinking of (Mark Stone maybe?), but his reports all mention his great skating and speed, and his ability to make plays at high speed. Sorry for derailing the Connolly conversation with worries of speed. Also, yes, playing with Nugent-Hopkins makes sense, but I’d like to see the team move more toward a speed identity, and I think they’re getting there. I’m now officially on board for Connolly, haha. They need my approval before moving forward with this, right?
Come on!
Lead Is a NKOTB fan!
Leadfarmer:
When I first applied my +ve goal actor analysis.
Critical factors became clear in goal diff analysis.
1. 3-2-1 ga rate was a high % +ve actor versus -ve 3-1-1-1 defence.
2. Forwards generate goal at 4 times greater pace than dmen
A.The top 5 off dmen in league generate even offence at #6 to #9 forward.
B.#6 to #270 generate even offence at a #10 to AHL level forward.
3. You want the forwards to have pocession of puck as quickly as possible.
4. The only +ve even off skill of dmen are
A. Transition pass to forwards central to NZ to avoid traps.
B. 4 option on a down low pass to a dman coming down to mid top circle for a shot. Without subjecting team to counterattack againstba 1–1-1 structure. Return to 2-1 is critical or it is a huge -ve.
C. OZ pass to opposite side for quick release high open shot yeild rate.
5. Rovers generate high -ve royal differentials relative to average.
Our Dman has to skate the puck up.
Teams who advance to and well into the playoffs have usually added
1.+ve Open sh save% goalies.
2. Top open sh HD reduction dmen
Since you could not recognize the players who fit my cup core structure if they hit you in the face.
How can you understand modern value when it comes to winning a cup.
Flyers made interesting moves already this year.
Niskanen a 1st comp HD dman in top 20
Braun a 1st comp HD dman in top 20
2 of 4-5 pieces of the even GA portion of championship roster
K. Hayes 3 yr avg 7.143 cap hit.
74gm 20.33G 29A 49P equals 1.26 top 125 fwd
Even 13.33G 1.57 shpg 11.40% SHD
When you see this even production.
We have 4 wing slots & 1 center Slot that could use
Veterans as near Hayes production even production with as cheap a cap cost as possible.
Donskoi 1.9 M last year
73gm 12.5evg 1.46 shpg 11.74% shd
Ferland 1.8M last year
75gm 12.33 evg 1.47 shpg
Panik 2.8M last year
74gm 10.5 evg 1.57 shpg 8.55% shd
Hartman .875M last yr
81gm 10.5evg 1.55 shpg 8.40% shd
Caggulia 1.5M
61gm 9.5 evg 1.43 shpg 10.86% shd
Archibald .700M
68gm 9.33 evg 1.12 shpg 13.68% shd
Lindberg 1.8M last year
63gm 9 evg 1.39 shpg 9.97% Shd
Ma. Granlund 1.475M last year
66gm 9 evg 1.20 shpg 10.76% shd
Paajarvi .900 last yr
81 gm 8 evg 1.20 shpg 9.88% Shd
Sheehan 2.1M last year
78gm 8 evg 1.18 shpg 8.74% shd
Leaf’s boxed themselves in and every other GM could smell blood. Avs weren’t cornered – no smell of blood.
The NHL is one tough league to figure out. The Leafs dump Marleau’s $6 mill in cap space and it costs them a first round pick. The Avs dump Soderberg’s $5 mill in cap space and actually get a third round pick in return. This league is a real mind bender.
I got a chuckle out of this
That’s why he still has that Rob Lowe poster pinned up in his garage
Corey Feldman called to say “what’s up?”
How about Gretzky’s 21 year contract in 1979 the longest contract as far as I know in any of the major sports history.
Who in their wildest dreams could ever have imagined that the cap would increase over time?
McDavid’s AAV in years 1-8 will run something like:
Market value.
Incredible value
Extreme value
Ridiculous value
Spectacular value
Larceny
Grand Larceny
White collar crime
Binary academics choose a an analytic hill to play on.
Investing countless analysis on what is important game analysis to them.
When doing any of my industrial analysis.
We do simple pre tests on parts of the Buisness to seem what +ve economic impact is available.
We look for variables that hint at 33-50+%.
It is a quick and intelligent purge.
Step one to hockey analysis.
I have pointed out look at the large actor that affect the game.
Concentrate multivariable Analysis on these actors.
Look at current binary analysis that has huge multivariable flaws
Purge these from the hockey analysis industry.
Look at low % actors that occupy to much money & time in the industry.
Purge these from the hockey analysis world.
It is not cap intelligent analysis.
Most on here present old ideas that have .1 to 2.5% affects.
I purged them long ago.
DFF is the least accurate measure of goal performance.
Being up to 200% less accurate than current accepted terms corsi, etc.
Differentiate by OHDSH & Closed shot up to 500% less accurate.
Which I have told you years ago.
2D situational charting is not flawed it is completely wrong when you exclude the other 3 large actor situations.
PDO is an unsupported guess that allows people with no understanding of analysis to think they are doing analysis.
One of my theorems disprove PDO.
C’mon.
If I were tasked with negotiating McDavid’s second contract, I would have said, “the term is 8-years. Non-negotiable. Write down the AAV you want, and let’s get this signed.”
I think you’re reading too much into the comment, if that’s the direct quote. I expect one of the AHL guys to win a spot as well. Doesn’t necessarily mean they will.
You guys are killing me.
I’m not making this up.
Iirc Stauffer promulgated that McDavid left money on the table (750 k) ostensibly so that the Oilers could afford to ice a competitive team.
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/mcdavid-like-others-before-him-leaves-money-on-the-table-for-oilers-in-pursuit-of-cup
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/twitter-reacts-to-connor-mcdavid-signing-its-a-great-day-for-oilers-fans
rickithebear,
Our bear friend still thinks defense are for d only and offense is for offense only
Might as well get off the ice if your a defenseman when puck crosses center ice
There’s a reason Ricki d are a endangered species
All your guys from Manning to Fayne are out of the league
Because doesn’t matter how good you defend you are always defending therefore you are a net negative
Yet somehow I’m supposedly stuck in the past?
That’s why Ricki d are being given away
I’d be comfortable with Lagesson in Jones’ spot as well.
I agree with the premise that the org is a year away from potentially being able to move on from an incumbent top 4 without pain but what they do have now, for the first time in years, are NHL ready (or damn close) players waiting for call-up – nope, they aren’t top 4 ready but, when you say: “bring up Lagesson for the 3rd pair” – that’s a great think. He’s NHL ready, just needs to get the chance.
There will be 3-4 options in Bakersfield for call-ups – options that have real ability to come to the NHL, with skill and contribute – its been decades.
One good thing you can say is from the Vanek contract to the Mcdavid contract to the Koskinen contract is we’re creating cap messes for every other team
Leadfarmer still thinks this is the 80,s
Sorry buddy teams do not consistently get to compete for championships in the last 25 years without strong open HD dman depth.
Season avg density in any season.
X = avg success SH% of Open LDSH
OHDSH = Open High Danger shot
OLDSH = Open Low Danger shot
CHDSH – Closed High Danger shot
CLDSH – Closed Low Danger shot
OHDSH density = 5X
OLDSH density = 1X
CHDSH density = 0X = 0.00 sh%
CLDSH density = 0X = 0.00 sh%
Every day I watch Russell the most elite dman in the game
at making highest % of Corsi faced ( dependent on fwd NZ Defence)
Have a shot density of 0.00%
99+% of the people on here believe that is not the best thing a dman can do for a goalie.
My world we need as many even goals from the available cap
Last year on oilers 42 goals were scored by the 14 players Who had 7.17 seasons of games.
42/7.17 = 5.86 goals per 82 games from the 14
I want as many even goals from the 631 man games for as cheap as possible.
Today I have been starting to accumulate a list of players.
Here are examples
Shpg – shots per game
SHD – shot density
2-3 3 yr avg unless season indicated
Connaly
18-19 81gm 21evg 1.57 shpg 16.54% shd
16/17-17/18 68gm 12 evg 1.01 shpg 19.05 shd
Connally has allways been an elite open space targeted.
But his shot volume has allways been low till last year.
Scares the crap out of me.
He made 1.5M last year.
This year talk of 3.5 to 5M
Donskoi 73gm 12.5 evg 1.55 shpg 11.74% shd 1.9M last yr. top playoff producer .5+ ppg,
Vanek 71gm 13.33 evg 1.42 shpg 13.25% shd
Pomminville 78gm 12.67 evg 1.79 shpg 9.09% shd.
Ferland 75gm 12.33 evg 1.47 shpg 11.25% shd.
Johansson 78gm 12.0 evg 1.33 shpg 11.61% Shd.
Chaisson 77gm 11.5 evg 1.16 shpg 12.92% Shd.
Piri 61gm 11.17 evg 1.58 shpg 11.55% shd.
Panik 74gm 10.5 evg 1.57 shpg 8.55% shd.
Hartman 81gm 10.5 evg 1.55 shpg 8.40% shd.
Filppula 77gm 9.67 evg .84 shpg 14.87% shd
Brouwer 79gm 8.67 evg 1.06 shpg 10.08% shd
Lindbergh 63gm 8.33 evg 1.33 shpg 10.08% shd
Sheehan 78 gm 8.0 evg 1.18 shpg 8.74% shd
Paajarvi 64gm 7.67 evg 1.40 shpg 8.58% shd
When you start to look at players last year cap hits
What they expect versus the historical sh vol & density
I want the most evg per M cap. While having realistic shot volume replace of the 14 forwards from last season.
Off to watch Black Spot on Netflix.
Completely agree. A Rfa contract that was almost 20% higher than the nearest UFA contract is not a discount.
Mcdavid got paid.
Now it will be a complete steal in 5 years as will the Draisatl contract but on the day they were signed they both got very generous deals
Can Benning lead a successful third pair?
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Nurse
Jones Benning
I approve this post