Wing and a Prayer

In theory, Peter Chiarelli’s major roster bet (build up the middle, with improved centers, defense and goaltending by trading wings) made sense. His problems came in undervaluing Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, while employing a large number of hopefuls who simply couldn’t establish themselves.

Chiarelli traded Hall, Eberle and Teddy Purcell, bought out Pouliot, and replaced them with Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon, Mike Cammalleri and Zack Kassian. He bet on youth, in two cases unready teenagers, and for the most part the youngsters failed him. In theory, the idea made sense. Larsson, Strome, Sekera, Russell, Talbot. In the end, he traded one of his two drivers and the team could not recover.

Ken Holland’s job this summer is to address as many needs as possible, inside an impossibly difficult cap situation. Where will he go for solutions?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • New Lowetide: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
  • New Jonathan WillisOilers keep two, cut five, and potentially add new targets as qualifying deadline passes
  • New Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
  • New Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
  • New Daniel Nugent-BowmanKen Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
  • Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
  • Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
  • Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

2015-16 wingers (by 5-on-5 per 60 scoring)

I included Leon Draisaitl, he also played center (Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Letestu and Anton Lander also played pivot). Oilers scoring wingers ran deep. Hall, Pouliot, Eberle and Purcell (basically counting Leon as a center) would be outstanding for the current Oilers.

2016-17 wingers (by 5-on-5 per 60 scoring)

Both McDavid and Draisaitl were over 2.00/60, but the regular wingers couldn’t manage anything close to 2.00. Part of that was the absence of Hall and I do think we saw some failure in the young group that Chiarelli needed to step up (Slepyshev, Caggiula). I don’t fault Puljujarvi, he was a teenager, but Slepy needed to have more impact. The gap from Hall to Lucic is a knife to the heart.

2017-18 wingers (by 5-on-5 per 60 scoring)

This is tough to look at, what with Mike Cammalleri the second most productive scoring winger. The number four regular winger (Khaira) scored at a rate equal to the number six winger in 2015-16. None of the young skill wingers (Slepyshev, Caggiula, Puljujarvi) were able to push up the depth chart. Edmonton needed Slepy to land where Cammalleri is on this list and to build from there. It didn’t happen.

2018-19 wingers (by 5-on-5 per 60 scoring)

Three men at 1.50/60 or better, and Chiarelli traded one of them. One of the key issues for Ken Holland is to acquire more wingers who can move the needle. I understand Alex Chiasson scored 22 goals last season, but he wasn’t efficient at 5-on-5, nor was Zack Kassian. Folks, even a younger Teddy Purcell would be a massive improvement.

Possible 2018-19 wingers (by 5-on-5 per 60 scoring)

Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts mentioned Connolly and Tanev, both men would be top-six forwards based on performances a year ago. For Holland, as was the case with Chiarelli, the need is for kids like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson and Marody to emerge. Holland’s patience may help these players, although this team badly needs young wingers who can score while representing value deals.

Who has the best chance of stepping in? I wrote yesterday at The Athletic about this, and to my eye Tyler Benson has the clearest shot. Left wing is an offensive wasteland behind Leon Draisaitl, with Nygard, Lucic and Khaira the likely competition. Signing Tanev might muddy the waters, but I suspect Tippett will see Benson’s vision and passing in training camp and work to keep him on the big team. Holland could change the equation with trades and in free agency in the coming days.

These two men are not similar in quality. Mrazek’s save percentage last season at even strength (.929) ranked him No. 9 among goalies who played 25 or more games. Smith’s number (.907) was No. 45. Last season, Smith (.922) was stronger at evens than Mrazek (.914). I think Smith might sign at a reasonable rate for one year, with Mrazek possibly seeking a Jonathan Bernier deal. I don’t think this is an easy decision. Money and term have to be considered. If they sign Mike Smith, safe to assume Shane Starrett will see NHL action this coming season. I don’t believe $3 million times three years for Mrazek is wise, perhaps I’m wrong.

THE TRADE BOARD

Frank Seravalli posted a new TSN trade board this morning, Jesse Puljujarvi and Milan Lucic are on it. It is here. The Puljujarvi chatter seems to be reaching something close to a crescendo, although it’s uncertain this will amount to anything. The Tampa Bay Lightning are an interesting option, minor league team (Syracuse Crunch) are loaded with prospects. I’ll take Alex Barre-Boulet, please and thanks.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

TSN1260, 10am. We do a round table discussion twice a year, and today’s first hour will see Bruce McCurdy, Darcy McLeod and Tyler Hupka bring logic and reason to the Oilers current state. We’ll chat about the hiring of Ken Holland and Dave Tippett, the choice to approach this summer in a measured way and what free agency may bring. Frank Seravalli drops by at 11, we’ll talk about the new trade board, free agent destinations and the impact of the new cap on buyouts. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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251 Responses to "Wing and a Prayer"

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  1. rickithebear says:

    OilFire:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    Hope your health is coming along fine.

    FWIW, I’m a professor and I teach applications of multivariable calculus amongst other topics.I spend a big chunk of my time reviewing other people’s articles in the scientific journals. I can tell you that the issue of people here not understanding your ideas is either (1) you not explaining your methods clearly or (2) your methods being a list of initial ideas that inspired you instead of a worked out machinery. I know it’s nice to just believe you’re a genius and every single other person is stupid, but that sounds more like a conspiracy theory than reality.

    No I have identified varying levels of affect.
    Then identify the sequence of events that achieve highest probability of goal success and prevention.
    There are very few high % actors.
    That are not as complex as everyone thinks they need to be.

    Most high actors have a series of permutations with varying expected performance averages each systematic action can have.

    You get a performance level for each permutation & identify what a player is good at.

    When it comes to transition passing my initial simple work said to me stay away from that.
    You need the kind of man power that pro football focus has.
    Started by former position players in partnership with analytic people who understud.

    Modeling for this was a joke.
    Each mechanism of play must be observed & scored by success ( looking for high actor mechanisms)
    & stand win, tie, loss. Looking for players who’s base play has a high win rate.

    5 years ago PFF started to Do this.

    Frank Ragnow was the highest graded center ever in college football when it came to switch blitzes.
    Giving up 0% in his career.
    Frank Ragnow was the highest graded college center ever when it came to 3tech Dlineman pressure.
    Giving up 1 pressure in his entire career.

    Graded for each permutation of situational successes.
    No modeling.
    Observed result scored human machine action.

    As Daryl Sutter said to me at cactus corner truck stop.
    T Intersection of hwy 9 & south hwy 36.
    Re the players “ we are turning them into fucking robots”

    He is correct.

    We want the players who repeat the best sequence of actions with highest win rates above average in each situation.

    We want robots.

    Not modelled.
    Real data!

    When you say I am a professor.
    Academically, you want some repetative model.

    I was not raised to think that way.

    Sadly now my brain does not work like it used to.
    Cause of treatment.

    No longer can photo remember any memory back to age 4.

  2. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The Blues started the year with Jake Allen (total sieve) and finished with Binnington.

    This is my sliver of hope for the Koskinen backup situation. Maybe Cinderella is already in the minors awaiting a shoe fitting?

    I don’t get why half the fans have zero faith in kosh. Give the man a honest chance before you and the rest of the pack of wolves pitchfork him out of town. Maybe we can place a bet on save percentage before the season starts you pick it. I prefer to cheer for my team and not against my starting goaltender with a 25-21 record on a shit and demoralized team. Again before the season starts you pick save pct I got a good feeling Kosh is gonna mute the Haters

  3. leadfarmer says:

    Reja: I don’t get why half the fans have zero faith in kosh. Give the man a honest chance before you and the rest of the pack of wolves pitchfork him out of town. Maybe we can place a bet on save percentage before the season starts you pick it. I prefer to cheer for my team and not against my startinggoaltender with a 25-21 record on a shit and demoralized team. Again before the season starts you pick save pct I got a good feeling Kosh is gonna mute the Haters

    I have 0 faith in Koskinen playing well in 82 games so how about that because that’s the situation we’re in

    Even if he’s the best goalie in the league I don’t want him playing more than 50 games and those other 32 at currently not accounted for
    And that’s the best case scenario

  4. unca miltie says:

    bwar:
    unca miltie,

    That’s a bummer, hope he does well regardless.

    likely a good move for him
    I am cheering for him as well.
    I recall others on this site hoping the Oil would offer an nhl contract to him.

  5. OilFire says:

    rickithebear: When you say I am a professor.
    Academically, you want some repetative model.

    I was not raised to think that way.

    Don’t confuse the way a professor teaches inside a class with what their research interests are. Science isn’t about searching for a hidden stone tablet of rules. Many systems of interest are horrendously complicated and aren’t modeled in the way you are suggesting academics are stuck on.

    Anyway, not trying to attack you Mr. TheBear. I have just found it to be incredibly rare that the problem of understanding lies in the audience and not the speaker.

  6. Jordan says:

    Glovjuice,

    As a gamer I can say that orchestral compositions based on video game music are my favourite thing to listen to these days. Perhaps the most enjoyable aspect of it is the vide variety of variations, themes, countermelodies and genres of music that can be created from the base music of the original game.

    On a very related note, there are also a number of metal covers of many of the same games, which are also fabulous, some of which (like the orchestral versions) surpass the original music substantially.

    The most enjoyable aspect for me is that the music still has the same emotional impact that the game anthems had, while at the same time sounding fresh and interesting with the different instrumentation, and variations with the tunes themselves.

    For me, its like having someone remastering the dynasty Oilers seasons, while also including all of the behind the scenes commentary and conversations from the players, coaches and management. Just. Friggin. Awesome.

  7. Professor Q says:

    Jordan,

    The Halo and Stargate (and Star Trek) soundtracks are absolutely phenomenal. There are some fantastic metal covers, as well.

    I’m also particularly fond of Tron and that trippy style of music.

    EDIT: I can’t forget about The Elder Scrolls games, either!

    Warframe has phenomenal music and sound effects, also.

  8. rickithebear says:

    We need as much evg scoring depth as possible.
    As I stated earlier the starting point of season average for position.
    #1.5 LW (49th) 10.67 evg
    #2 LW (62nd). 8.67 evg
    #3 LW (93rd) 5.33 evg

    #1.5 RW (49th) 10.33 evg
    #2 RW (62nd) 8.00 evg
    #3 RW (93rd) 4.00 evg

    We want forwards who are generating just under #2 to #1.5 winger rates as cheaply as possible.
    That is 7-11 evg in 77 games.
    WE projected salary in brackets.

    Nylander 16/17 to 17/18 stats he is a 6.963 cap hit
    81gm 11.5 evg 1.67 shpg vol. 8.425% sh density
    Not a chance at that cost.

    Here are the three 1 yr contracts I want.
    Largely covered by a Gagner manning buyout
    2.1333M + 1.3333 = 3.4667M
    With 3-4 yr avg listed.
    Pomminville 35+ contract ufa
    78gm 12.67 evg 1.79 shpg vol. 9.091% sh density (1@ 1.09)
    Fillpulla 35+ contract ufa
    78 gm 8 evg 1.25 shpg 11.718% sh density (1@ 1.54)
    Brouwer 35+ contract ufa
    78gm 9 evg 1.25 shpg 9.137% sh density (1@ .875)
    That is 3.505M for 3 – #2 to #1.5 wingers & 30 evg

    2 or 3 others from
    Hartman 79gm 11.67 evg 1.73 shpg 8.516% sh density (2@ 2.51) offer (3@ 2.333)
    Sheehan 78gm 8 evg 1.18 shpg 8.743% sh density (2@ 1.3) offer (2@ 1.333)
    Archibald 68gm 9 evg 1.12 shpg 11.667% sh density (3@ 1.59) (2@ 1.666)
    Ennis 62gm 8 evg 1.31 shpg 9.877% sh density ( 3 @ 1.85) offer (2@ 1.666)
    3M gets 16 – 17 evg
    3.667M gets 20 evg
    4M gets 20 – 21 evg
    4.667M gets 25 evg
    5.333M gets 28 – 29 evg

    That is 5 to 6 fwds with 3 -5.33M off available cap.
    453 to 459 player gm gets us 46 to 59 evg.

    Last year 588 player games got us 40 evg

    That still leaves 129 to 137gm to still be filled.

    Please mr Holland.

  9. HT Joe says:

    Glovjuice:

    Cool… thanks for your thoughts.

    *EDIT* And awesome comment from Jordan too!

  10. rickithebear says:

    Oilfire:
    You would have loved to talk to Gerald bull.
    Dad worked with him on HARP project.
    He talked about river movement in Africa on a harmonic level.
    I was 7 yr old and for half a year I liked reading about all the rivers & waterfalls in Africa in the Encyclopedia.
    Do not ask me now.
    Fucking Cancer meds.

  11. HT Joe says:

    Reja: I don’t get why half the fans have zero faith in kosh. Give the man a honest chance before you and the rest of the pack of wolves pitchfork him out of town.

    I applaud your sentiment for us to cheer for Koskinen, but I want to thank you for creating the visual of a pack of wolves with pitchforks in their mouths, chasing after our goalie. Cheers!

  12. Side says:

    Professor Q:
    Jordan,

    The Halo and Stargate (and Star Trek) soundtracks are absolutely phenomenal. There are some fantastic metal covers, as well.

    I’m also particularly fond of Tron and that trippy style of music.

    Diablo has one of the best video game songs of all time. Fits the game perfectly

    https://youtu.be/AnMR6SOBa9k

  13. OilFire says:

    rickithebear: You would have loved to talk to Gerald bull.
    Dad worked with him on HARP project.
    He talked about river movement in Africa on a harmonic level.

    Your dad worked with the guy who was assassinated for building superguns for Saddam Hussein? Crazy. I found out a friend of mine was pushed on a swing by Richard Feynman–the world is a small place sometimes.

    I don’t see much connection between harmonicity and river movements, not sure what you’re driving at there.

  14. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: His cap hit will always be $6M no matter how much of his bonus or overall compensation remains to be paid.

    If we trade him on June 30 – $6M cap hit.

    If we trade him on July 2 – $6M cap hit.

    That’s what I figured, thanks.

  15. Pescador says:

    OilFire: D

    I have just found it to be incredibly rare that the problem of understanding lies in the audience and not the speaker.

    Quoted for awesomeness

  16. northerndancer says:

    rickithebear:
    We need as much evg scoring depth as possible.
    As I stated earlier the starting point of season average for position.
    #1.5 LW (49th) 10.67 evg
    #2 LW (62nd). 8.67 evg
    #3 LW (93rd) 5.33 evg

    #1.5 RW (49th) 10.33 evg
    #2 RW (62nd) 8.00 evg
    #3 RW (93rd) 4.00 evg

    We want forwards who are generating just under #2 to #1.5 winger rates as cheaply as possible.
    That is 7-11 evg in 77 games.
    WE projected salary in brackets.

    Nylander 16/17 to 17/18 statshe is a 6.963 cap hit
    81gm 11.5 evg 1.67 shpg vol. 8.425% sh density
    Not a chance at that cost.

    Here are the three 1 yr contracts I want.
    Largely covered by a Gagner manning buyout
    2.1333M + 1.3333 = 3.4667M
    With 3-4 yr avg listed.
    Pomminville 35+ contract ufa
    78gm 12.67 evg 1.79 shpg vol. 9.091% sh density (1@ 1.09)
    Fillpulla 35+ contract ufa
    78 gm 8 evg 1.25 shpg 11.718% sh density (1@ 1.54)
    Brouwer 35+ contract ufa
    78gm 9 evg 1.25 shpg 9.137% sh density (1@ .875)
    That is 3.505M for 3 – #2 to #1.5 wingers & 30 evg

    2 or 3 others from
    Hartman 79gm 11.67 evg 1.73 shpg 8.516% sh density (2@ 2.51) offer (3@ 2.333)
    Sheehan 78gm 8 evg 1.18 shpg 8.743% sh density (2@ 1.3) offer (2@ 1.333)
    Archibald 68gm 9 evg 1.12 shpg 11.667% sh density (3@ 1.59) (2@ 1.666)
    Ennis 62gm 8 evg 1.31 shpg 9.877% sh density ( 3 @ 1.85) offer (2@ 1.666)
    3M gets 16 – 17 evg
    3.667M gets 20 evg
    4M gets 20 – 21 evg
    4.667M gets 25 evg
    5.333M gets 28 – 29 evg

    That is 5 to 6 fwds with 3 -5.33M off available cap.
    453 to 459 player gm gets us 46 to 59 evg.

    Last year 588 player games got us 40 evg

    That still leaves 129 to 137gm to still be filled.

    Please mr Holland.

    Hey Rikithebear, I don’t post often but want to say that I appreciate the perspective that you bring to my understanding of the game we love. I don’t necessarily agree with some of your research or conclusions but you bring it – so thank you. One of the best things of this LT masterpiece is that people like me can learn about the game through different perspectives, different coaching philosophies and strategies which value different skills, different player attributes. And I want to tell you that I don’t post much because I am too sensitive to criticism.

    It seems like your ability to contribute comes and goes. Glad you are able to contribute these days. Hang in there.

  17. jp says:

    leadfarmer: I have 0 faith in Koskinen playing well in 82 games so how aboutthat because that’s the situation we’re in

    Even if he’s the best goalie in the league I don’t want him playing more than 50 games and those other 32 at currently not accounted for
    And that’s the best case scenario

    Just a reminder that Koskinen was playing a lot more games in Europe than you might realize.

    By year, including international games and playoffs (I included his playoff SV% as a bonus):
    12-13 54 (5GP .936)
    13-14 59 (10GP .928)
    14-15 74 (22GP .936)
    15-16 68 (15GP .945)
    16-17 42 (15GP .938)
    17-18 54 (15GP .935)

    So he’s used to playing 50+ games. And he’s not seen any drop-off in late season performance even when playing up around 70 games a year.

    That’s a pretty impressive run of playoff seasons. I wouldn’t say I have faith in Koskinen exactly. But I do think some hope is warranted.

  18. Glovjuice says:

    Jordan:
    Glovjuice,

    As a gamer I can say that orchestral compositions based on video game music are my favourite thing to listen to these days.Perhaps the most enjoyable aspect of it is the vide variety of variations, themes, countermelodies and genres of music that can be created from the base music of the original game.

    On a very related note, there are also a number of metal covers of many of the same games, which are also fabulous, some of which (like the orchestral versions) surpass the original music substantially.

    The most enjoyable aspect for me is that the music still has the same emotional impact that the game anthems had, while at the same time sounding fresh and interesting with the different instrumentation, and variations with the tunes themselves.

    For me, its like having someone remastering the dynasty Oilers seasons, while also including all of the behind the scenes commentary and conversations from the players, coaches and management.Just.Friggin.Awesome.

    Ah, cool, I got it. I was thinking new games that are being made with orchestral music from scratch rather than pre-existing games re-recorded with orchestral music. Both sound awesome to me. Would love to hear a before and after to get the vibe and feel of what is going on. On a side note: in high school a made a mash up mix tape of Vivaldi and Iron Maiden (80’s so a long time ago). Friends thought I was nuts but got what I was thinking at least.

  19. Reja says:

    leadfarmer: I have 0 faith in Koskinen playing well in 82 games so how aboutthat because that’s the situation we’re in

    Even if he’s the best goalie in the league I don’t want him playing more than 50 games and those other 32 at currently not accounted for
    And that’s the best case scenario

    I just got off the phone with Tippet and he plans on playing him every pre season game and 81 regular season games one day off for his anniversary. Seriously get a competent backup for 2.65 mil and split the duties go with the hot hand you know be a coach. Oilers will make the playoffs and before the season starts pick a save percentage and let’s open the betting windows it’ll be fun to cheer against your starting goalie before the season even starts because he signed a Horcoff contract we all would have jumped at. The quiet giant Finn with reflexes like a cat will get my full support Just like the rest of the team.

  20. Reja says:

    HT Joe: I applaud your sentiment for us to cheer for Koskinen, but I want to thank you for creating the visual of a pack of wolves with pitchforks in their mouths, chasing after our goalie.Cheers!

    Kosh was a high pick he has the pedigree the hardest position time wise coming from the big ice overseas is the Goaltender. Kosh is a gamer and he’ll square himself up better to the shooter next year. He went 25-21 on a shit team so he did steal games for us. Kosh is very tall maybe all the hate is coming from the Randy Newman song something something about short people.

  21. Professor Q says:

    Side: Diablo has one of the best video game songs of all time. Fits the game perfectly

    https://youtu.be/AnMR6SOBa9k

    Yes, you’re right.

    Perhaps we all just need to stay a while and listen.

  22. Professor Q says:

    The amazing part of Warframe, is that for a Free To Play game they put so much effort into every single detail.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrQtsLVa504

    When you listen to this particular song, it’s composed in a way to invoke the Lotus (mother) singing to her children (Tenno) and then them responding to her.

    And then a different twist with We All Lift Together:

    https://warframe.bandcamp.com/track/we-all-lift-together

  23. Glovjuice says:

    Professor Q: Yes, you’re right.

    Perhaps we all just need to stay a while and listen.

    This stuff is so ambient black metal it’s crazy.

  24. Giggleplex says:

    Was at dev camp today.

    Hebig was probably the best forward on the ice. Hands, speed and shot were all great. He’s a bit small tho.

    Lavoie and McLeod had good chemistry between them and the two combined for a few goals. They also scored in the shootout to clich the Billy Moore’s Cup. McLeod is more of the playmaker while Lavoie was more of the shooter.

    Bouchard was probably the best D on the ice. He was on the all D team (lol) and I though they were the best team but alas they didn’t play in the finals. Bouchard and Broberg seem to be good friends as I see them hanging out together the most. Broberg scored on a nice tip at the goal mouth.

    I saw Kesselring good too. He’s a big guy and has some skills. I believed he scored a goal in one of the scrims.

    I also went on the ice for a bit before the scrims started for a public skate session. Just testing out the ice for the boys 😉

  25. iwin76 says:

    OilFire,

    “I have just found it to be incredibly rare that the problem of understanding lies in the audience and not the speaker.”

    So well said.

    As a scientist, I try to stress this (less succinctly, and probably with less clarity) to my trainees all the time. In the environments where we work and present our work, EVERYONE is SMART. If they don’t understand what you’re saying, the problem is not with them, it’s with you.

    Anyway, this does not advance the hockey talk at all, but I find this one of the most frustrating things in academia…those who attribute the lack of understanding of the importance of their work to the failure of the audience to decipher it, rather than the failure of the presenter to make it obvious and accessible.

  26. Cassandra says:

    rickithebear: No I have identified varying levels of affect.
    Then identify the sequence of events that achieve highest probability of goal success and prevention.
    There are very few high % actors.
    That are not as complex as everyone thinks they need to be.

    Most high actors have a series of permutations with varying expected performance averages each systematic action can have.

    You get a performance level for each permutation & identify what a player is good at.

    When it comes to transition passing my initial simple work said to me stay away from that.
    You need the kind of man power that pro football focus has.
    Started by former position players in partnership with analytic people who understud.

    Modeling for this was a joke.
    Each mechanism of play must be observed & scored by success ( looking for high actor mechanisms)
    & stand win, tie, loss. Looking for players who’s base play has a high win rate.

    5 years ago PFF started to Do this.

    Frank Ragnow was the highest graded center ever in college football when it came to switch blitzes.
    Giving up 0% in his career.
    Frank Ragnow was the highest graded college center ever when it came to 3tech Dlineman pressure.
    Giving up 1 pressure in his entire career.

    Graded for each permutation of situational successes.
    No modeling.
    Observed result scored human machine action.

    As Daryl Sutter said to me at cactus corner truck stop.
    T Intersection of hwy 9 & south hwy 36.
    Re the players “ we are turning them into fucking robots”

    He is correct.

    We want the players who repeat the best sequence of actions with highest win rates above average in each situation.

    We want robots.

    Not modelled.
    Real data!

    When you say I am a professor.
    Academically, you want some repetative model.

    I was not raised to think that way.

    Sadly now my brain does not work like it used to.
    Cause of treatment.

    No longer can photo remember any memory back to age 4.

    I am also a Professor. And I can say the problem is not your communication skills it is your understanding skills. Your theory, such as it is, has many problems. Some of these are empirical–it doesn’t fit the data. And some of these are rational–you make contrary assertions and or fallacious arguments. When these are pointed out to you, you never respond in such a way that would demonstrate your understanding of the criticism. Instead, you ignore the criticism and then repeat the thing that elicited the criticism in the first place. Sometimes you throw in an ad hominem attack on the simpletons that don’t understand you. Other times you do some name dropping. Often you do both.

    All of these things are indicative of someone who is ignorant, in the technical sense, of the very thing they are supposed to know about.

    You have flashes of insight, but you draw conclusions that cannot be supported from those insights, and you make numerous errors, both in terms of reasoning and calculations. If you want to be taken seriously you should listen to these things.

    For instance, when measuring offense you should not compare players against a fixed base line, but instead consider marginal gains. If you did this you would know that your assertion that D contribute offense at the same level as a 4th line winger was incorrect. This wouldn’t necessarily invalidate your entire theory. Indeed, it may strengthen it by avoiding mistaken conclusions.

  27. YKOil says:

    If the team really need forwards and really wants to get rid of Benning and Nashville really wants Duchene, then methinks Nashville would be interested in trading any of Bonino/Smith/Granlund for Benning straight up; pending their belief in Santini/Fabbro.

    And don’t hold your breath on Santini.

    For what it is worth, Turris’ play at the World Cup has me thinking he will bounce back just fine. Would still strike a favourable deal though… no reason to pay dollars when quarters should do.

  28. YKOil says:

    You know, just thinking, Nashville could be interested in a retained salary Russell for Granlund. Just thinking.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    Durag: Does Pirri just have irredeemable sideburns or something? He seems like a pretty decent goal scorer, but he can never seem to stick anywhere.

    Slow boots. Here are some comments about him posted on theathletic. I have no idea how accurate they are, just passing them on.

    “I have NEVER understood Pirri’s situation. All the guy does is score. If you’re a bottom-feeder that can take some risks and needs a bit more umph up front – an Ottawa or Detroit, maybe – I don’t see how you don’t take a flyer on this guy and put this guy somewhere in your top 6 to see whether he’s the real deal.”

    reply:

    “He can’t skate at an NHL level. He comes up every year. Scores 5-8 goals in 5-8 games, then teams start taking away his space. He would be a Hoffman-type player if he could skate, but he can’t. Which obviously impacts his defensive/backcheck game.”

    reply 2:

    “Literally all the guy does is score. Won’t set up anyone else for a goal, won’t throw
    a hit, won’t backcheck, won’t battle in the corners, doesn’t help in transition. His goals aren’t worth it.”

    “Pirri’s best opportunity came in the wrong place at the wrong time. The season he seemed most qualified for an NHL job was his third in Rockford, when he was 21. His numbers had improved each year, but year 3 was a breakout: A point a game, including 52 assists. The problem: the Hawks were 36-7 and on their way to a Cup. He wasn’t going to push Toews out of the C1 job, and the C2 role was essentialy “faceoff specialist” — the team had gotten Michal Handzus. Nor was he going to center the third or fourth lines: Bolland and Kruger has that locked down. Maybe he could have played LW, but only if Saad, Sharp or Bickell got demoted (that was Bickell’s big year). He played 1 NHL game.

    Since then, Pirri’s game seems to have gotten more one-dimensional, or at least the perception of it has. The half season in Florida where only 2 of his 24 points came on assists probably didn’t help his rep. He was with three other teams shortly after that, lasting no more than a season with each.”

    ****************************************************************

    Seems like a Spooner-type player to me with worse skating. Must play in top-6, Must play with skill; otherwise isn’t in the league. Coaches don’t want him in the top-6 because he doesn’t impact the game in any way except to pot the odd goal.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    June 28 – getting close to the end of the buyout period – lets keep quiet on this front – almost there.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Kosh was a high pick he has the pedigree the hardest position time wise coming from the big ice overseas is the Goaltender. Kosh is a gamer and he’ll square himself up better to the shooter next year. He went 25-21 on a shit team so he did steal games for us. Kosh is very tall maybe all the hate is coming from the Randy Newman song something something about short people.

    Personally, I think his angles and positioning, etc. were much bigger issues than the “glove hand” that gets so much verbal. Yes, part of that can likely be connected to the change in ice but, then again, it was no better at the end of the year than the beginning.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Giggleplex:
    Was at dev camp today.

    Hebig was probably the best forward on the ice. Hands, speed and shot were all great. He’s a bit small tho.

    Lavoie and McLeod had good chemistry between them and the two combined for a few goals. They also scored in the shootout to clich the Billy Moore’s Cup. McLeod is more of the playmaker while Lavoie was more of the shooter.

    Bouchard was probably the best D on the ice. He was on the all D team (lol) and I though they were the best team but alas they didn’t play in the finals. Bouchard and Broberg seem to be good friends as I see them hanging out together the most. Broberg scored on a nice tip at the goal mouth.

    I saw Kesselring good too. He’s a big guy and has some skills. I believed he scored a goal in one of the scrims.

    I also went on the ice for a bit before the scrims started for a public skate session. Just testing out the ice for the boys

    Great info thanks.

    It was said that Kesselring looked like a giant last year and this year he’s come in with an extra 10-15 pounds of muscle.

    When drafted we knew it would be years and he’s a project but so far so good. I think he’s off to college this year – lets check in in a year and see where he is.

  33. Giggleplex says:

    Highlights from the Billy Moores Cup: https://youtu.be/oUuFQ9Z3__U

  34. DBO says:

    Wonder if Holland goes 1 year on show me deals to UFA’s. Ready for underwhelming July 1, but maybe that’s a good thing.

    Hartman
    Kinkaid
    Filpulla
    Move Russell to clear cap for a prospect.
    Move Puljujarvi for an AHL player with upside.

    Hoping for bigger, but I would be happy with those moves. Add in Connolly and that may be the best we can expect.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: I don’t get why half the fans have zero faith in kosh. Give the man a honest chance before you and the rest of the pack of wolves pitchfork him out of town. Maybe we can place a bet on save percentage before the season starts you pick it. I prefer to cheer for my team and not against my startinggoaltender with a 25-21 record on a shit and demoralized team. Again before the season starts you pick save pct I got a good feeling Kosh is gonna mute the Haters

    +1

  36. Andy Dufresne says:

    northerndancer: Hey Rikithebear,I don’t post often but want to say that I appreciate the perspective that you bring to my understanding of the game we love. I don’t necessarily agree with some of your research or conclusions but you bring it – so thank you.One of the best things of this LT masterpiece is that people like me can learn about the game through different perspectives, different coaching philosophies and strategies which value different skills, different player attributes.And I want to tell you that I don’t post much because I am too sensitive to criticism.

    It seems like your ability to contribute comes and goes.Glad you are able to contribute these days.Hang in there.

    Spoken like a Champion. (Northern Dancer)

    Well done.

    Here’s my “Tip O’ the Day” for managing criticism.

    Its not mathematically accurate (rounding errors, and observation bias, haha) , but it serves its purpose.

    I call it the “Law of 3rds”.

    In the Age of the Internet; No matter what your opinion; No matter your beliefs;

    1/3 of the people are going to like / appreciate it.
    1/3 will be nuetral, and
    1/3 are going to hate on it.

    With this perspective, it becomes slightly easier to not take it so personally. Having said that, we are emotional beings. Its what defines us as a species. So, its not just you. Its all of us!

  37. deardylan says:

    iwin76:
    OilFire,

    “I have just found it to be incredibly rare that the problem of understanding lies in the audience and not the speaker.”

    So well said.

    As a scientist, I try to stress this (less succinctly, and probably with less clarity) to my trainees all the time. In the environments where we work and present our work, EVERYONE is SMART. If they don’t understand what you’re saying, the problem is not with them, it’s with you.

    Anyway, this does not advance the hockey talk at all, but I find this one of the most frustrating things in academia…those who attribute the lack of understanding of the importance of their work to the failure of the audience to decipher it, rather than the failure of the presenter to make it obvious and accessible.

    Didnt some smart professor say something along the lines of “if you can’t explain it to a 5 year old, you dont understand it yourself.”

    Wonder if i could explain that quote to a 5 year old? Hmm.

    Love Ricki’s savant-like post and re-logical reactions to them.

    Wonder if LT could have him and Cassandra on the show discussing stats. Record audience would autotune in. Haha

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    Wonder if Holland goes 1 year on show me deals to UFA’s. Ready for underwhelming July 1, but maybe that’s a good thing.

    Hartman
    Kinkaid
    Filpulla
    Move Russell to clear cap for a prospect.
    Move Puljujarvi for an AHL player with upside.

    Hoping for bigger, but I would be happy with those moves. Add in Connolly and that may be the best we can expect.

    Yes, underwhelming July 1 but that is just fine and should be expected – Holland has already mention, many times, he’s focussed on a 1B goalie (likely after July 1) and creating some real NHL depth and skill in the bottom 6. One Connolly is about the high end of expectations and it may not even happen and that is just fine to me.

    Russell is the number 1 disposition target – not for return but for cap space. Without that a Connolly and a Mrazek aren’t possible. I am not on board with disposing in the name of opening up a spot for the prospect – the prospect earns the spot and then the incumbent can be moved. With that said, injuries will open up that spot likely even before October 2 in any event. There may even be a spot if they break camp with 8D/13F which I do think is possible.

    My goal for the next 48 hours is to avoid a buyout – there aren’t any that make sense vis-a-vis building a Stanley Cup champion in the next 2-3 years.

    I an not on board with trading Jesse for an AHL peculating forward unless we are talking about a guy like Tolaven with similar upside.

    All these AHL/almost NHL ready players that I read about, well, their AHL box-cars are middling and that doesn’t represent a good bet – their AHL boxcars in their early 20s are similar to Jesse at 18.

    The only difference if they’ve been given the opportunity to play in the AHL – Jesse dominated that league in the smallest of sample sizes last year (4 games) and i have no doubt he’d be an elite AHL player if given the opportunity – last year and this year.

  39. deardylan says:

    PS. WHAT IF we assumed Ricki is right and his communication style cant express the brilliant findings ? Would he really want to share his algorithms that would be worth billions? He might have discovered the mythical pi in that pi movie. WHAT IF..?

    Did anyone see the 98 Pi?

    Numbers whiz Max Cohen (Sean Gullette) is stunted by psychological delusions of paranoia and debilitating headaches. He lives in a messy Chinatown apartment, where he tinkers with equations and his homemade, super-advanced computer. One day, however, Cohen encounters a mysterious number. Soon after reporting his discovery to his mentor (Mark Margolis) and to a religious friend (Ben Shenkman), he finds himself the target of ill-intentioned Wall Street agents bent on using the number for profit.

    Director: Darren Aronofsky

  40. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Personally, I think his angles and positioning, etc. were much bigger issues than the “glove hand” that gets so much verbal.Yes, part of that can likely be connected to the change in ice but, then again, it was no better at the end of the year than the beginning.

    Goaltending is the hardest position to predict. Binnington could washout as easily as be a star. Holby goes hot and cold look at Colorado they looked like world beaters after Grubauer started stopping the puck.No way in hell I offer Kosh that contract but I would have taken a chance on a 2 year deal at 3.5 and signed a solid healthy backup to share the duties a 60-40 split. Regardless kosh is our voodoo starter and I hope he knocks it out of the park next year

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: Kosh was a high pick he has the pedigree the hardest position time wise coming from the big ice overseas is the Goaltender. Kosh is a gamer and he’ll square himself up better to the shooter next year. He went 25-21 on a shit team so he did steal games for us. Kosh is very tall maybe all the hate is coming from the Randy Newman song something something about short people.

    +1 Randy Newman….haha

    Nobody should let OP’s obsessive dislike of the contract convice anyone that Koski is “terrible”

    Heres Woodguys breakdown of last year month by month:

    GP and 5v5 SV% for EDM goalies per month
    Per month isn’t ideal splits, but its close enough
    October
    Talbot – 10gp – .929
    Koskinen – 1gp – .938
    McLellan with his usual even hand.
    November
    Talbot – 5gp – .884
    Koskinen – 10gp – .938
    From October 6th – November 11th Talbot played 13 games.
    13 games in 37 days. 2.84 days per game and he started to crash
    December
    Talbot – 6gp – .905
    Koskinen – 9gp – .919
    From November 11 to December 16th Koskinen played 13 games
    13 games in 35 days. 2.69 days per game and he started to crash.
    Got a Xmas break but was meh
    McLellan fired in late November, Hitch kept riding the horse.
    January
    Tablot – 6gp – .908
    Koskinen – 8gp .896
    Koskinen got 5 games from Dec 27 – Jan8th.
    12 days. 2.4 days per game
    Talbot got 5 games from Dec 27-Jan 8th too because they kept relieving each other. Ha!
    February
    Talbot 4gp – .921 – traded Feb. 16th
    Koskinen 11gp – .912
    Stolarz 1 gp – 1.00
    March – Apr
    Koskinen – 16 gp – .917
    Stolarz – 5gp – .912
    From Feb 13 – Apr 2nd Koskinen played 24 games.
    24 games in 48 days.
    2 days per game.
    Man.
    For comparison:
    Rask was on the low end of starters this year and played 46 games in 186 days for 4.04 days per game.
    If a starter is healthy and dresses for every game and gets in 54 starts + 4 reliefs that’s 59 games in 186 days (or so) for 3.15 days per game.
    Oiler goalies have been rode hard and put away wet then screamed at for getting worse during the season for eons.
    It doesn’t help.
    Especially with no Sekera and wonky backs/shoulders/hands for the other guys over the past 2 years.

  42. Andy Dufresne says:

    Giggleplex: He’s a bit small tho.

    Not true. He big.

  43. Andy Dufresne says:

    iwin76:
    OilFire,

    “I have just found it to be incredibly rare that the problem of understanding lies in the audience and not the speaker.”

    So well said.

    As a scientist, I try to stress this (less succinctly, and probably with less clarity) to my trainees all the time. In the environments where we work and present our work, EVERYONE is SMART. If they don’t understand what you’re saying, the problem is not with them, it’s with you.

    Anyway, this does not advance the hockey talk at all, but I find this one of the most frustrating things in academia…those who attribute the lack of understanding of the importance of their work to the failure of the audience to decipher it, rather than the failure of the presenter to make it obvious and accessible.

    Awesome insight. Thank You!

    iwin76:
    OilFire,

    “I have just found it to be incredibly rare that the problem of understanding lies in the audience and not the speaker.”

    So well said.

    As a scientist, I try to stress this (less succinctly, and probably with less clarity) to my trainees all the time. In the environments where we work and present our work, EVERYONE is SMART. If they don’t understand what you’re saying, the problem is not with them, it’s with you.

    Anyway, this does not advance the hockey talk at all, but I find this one of the most frustrating things in academia…those who attribute the lack of understanding of the importance of their work to the failure of the audience to decipher it, rather than the failure of the presenter to make it obvious and accessible.

    Awesome insight. Thank You.

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    deardylan:
    PS. WHAT IF we assumed Ricki is right and his communication style cant express the brilliant findings ? Would he really want to share his algorithms that would be worth billions? He might have discovered the mythical pi in that pi movie.WHAT IF..?

    Did anyone see the 98 Pi?

    Numbers whiz Max Cohen (Sean Gullette) is stunted by psychological delusions of paranoia and debilitating headaches. He lives in a messy Chinatown apartment, where he tinkers with equations and his homemade, super-advanced computer. One day, however, Cohen encounters a mysterious number. Soon after reporting his discovery to his mentor (Mark Margolis) and to a religious friend (Ben Shenkman), he finds himself the target of ill-intentioned Wall Street agents bent on using the number for profit.

    Director: Darren Aronofsky

    What will it profit a man if he gains the (whole?) number, yet forfeits his mind?

    Mark 8:36 ( I paraphrased 🙂 )

  45. Giggleplex says:

    Andy Dufresne: Not true. He big.

    Haha nice

  46. Andy Dufresne says:

    Giggleplex:
    Was at dev camp today.

    Hebig was probably the best forward on the ice. Hands, speed and shot were all great. He’s a bit small tho.

    Lavoie and McLeod had good chemistry between them and the two combined for a few goals. They also scored in the shootout to clich the Billy Moore’s Cup. McLeod is more of the playmaker while Lavoie was more of the shooter.

    Bouchard was probably the best D on the ice. He was on the all D team (lol) and I though they were the best team but alas they didn’t play in the finals. Bouchard and Broberg seem to be good friends as I see them hanging out together the most. Broberg scored on a nice tip at the goal mouth.

    I saw Kesselring good too. He’s a big guy and has some skills. I believed he scored a goal in one of the scrims.

    I also went on the ice for a bit before the scrims started for a public skate session. Just testing out the ice for the boys

    Thank you for the update.

  47. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: Goaltending is the hardest position to predict. Binnington could washout as easily as be a star. Holby goes hot and cold look at Colorado they looked like world beaters after Grubauer started stopping the puck.No way in hell I offer Kosh that contract but I would have taken a chance on a 2 year deal at 3.5 and signeda solid healthy backup to share the duties a 60-40 split. Regardless kosh is our voodoo starter and I hope he knocks it out of the park next year

    Agreed.

    With the caveat that:

    What if you had scouted Koski 12 times since early 2017, You had discussed him in 23 seperate meetings with the scouting staff. You had done all the comparisons, all the math. You had looked forward in time to understand what your options would be over the next 6 to 12 months. You had tehn spoken to his agent on 5 seperate occasions and went to great lengths to convince him why Edmonton was the right destinations. etc etc

    Then the time comes and all of your predictions come to pass. Your excited to get Koski signed to that 2 x $3.5m deal.

    THEN at the last minute the agent lets you know that 2 other teams have done all the same work you have done over the last 12 months and one of them is offering 3 x $4.25m

    What then?

    Its easy in a chat room / blog to say……Oh….Id just walk away. IMO thats not the way it works in the real world. In the real world, the 3x$4.25m offer from another team just validates your opinion of the player and strengthens your resolve to get him signed.

    These things do not exist / occur in a vacuum.

    #reallifeismessy
    #nastybrutishandshort

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Nobody shouldlet OP’s obsessive dislike of the contract convice anyone that Koski is “terrible”” – Andy
    —————————-

    Of course not – so far his below starter level play has done that.

    I don’t know of a single person that thinks he was “good enough” in 2018/19 nor earned the contract that he received.

    Hopefully he is much better in 2019/20. That is the hope. For some its an expectation.

  49. PennersPancakes says:

    rickithebear: Model.
    What need for a model.
    The real time multivariable data & results are easily available.No flawed algorithmic analysis.
    Dependent on the level of understanding of the game.
    In most cases to complex for these simple minds

    Do not worry “ I will not forget about you”

    Please continue to live in your fairy tale world where you are constantly the smartest man in the room. You have absolutely zero ability to communicate your ideas to anyone. If you somehow learned to talk to another human being we could pinpoint exactly where your ideas go to shit.

    Until then have fun pretending your the genius in the hockey world berating everyone else, you and your wife deserve each other thats for sure. If you put together a team with your favorite “Ricki” defenders they might honestly go 0-82.

  50. Tapdog says:

    PennersPancakes: Please continue to live in your fairy tale world where you are constantly the smartest man in the room. You have absolutely zero ability to communicate your ideas to anyone. If you somehow learned to talk to another human being we could pinpoint exactly where your ideas go to shit.

    Until then have fun pretending your the genius in the hockey world berating everyone else, you and your wife deserve each other thats for sure. If you put together a team with your favorite “Ricki” defenders they might honestly go 0-82.

    I will start with an apology…but..

    The “smartest man in the room” blush*t is something carried by more than one person around here so be careful tossing it around.
    What makes this all so hilarious is that obviously the level of intelligence is very high around here but ultimately this alpha male pissing match of who is better comes down to not being bright enough to realize that no one is pushing the other off their soapbox! Almost akin to a grade school “I know you are but what am I” argument……….

    This is a great site that LT provides and honestly coming here and reading this crap gets to be too much, I have my own damn kids to smack in to reality I shouldn’t have to do this for people I don’t know.

    I love coming here to read and well honestly learn more about analytics, hockey, food, booze lol life but these bloody pissing matches have to end..

    Sorry .. end rant..

  51. hags9k says:

    I think the issue with Koskinen in the second half was just fatigue. His processor was just a fraction slower than it was out of the gates.

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