Keeps on Raining (Levee’s going to break)

This should be a boat load of fun for Edmonton Oilers fans. A goalie, several wingers, maybe a trade, possibly a buyout and by this time next month a much better idea about the 2019-20 roster.

Peter Chiarelli traded a mountain of draft picks 75 days after he was named Edmonton’s general manager; Ken Holland is 50 days into his time in the position and it’s Joakim Nygard with six draft picks.

We know Ken Holland is working, the information drops are in the dozens. When will the levee break? Soon. Soon.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers have a tough decision to make as the NHL buyout deadline looms
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the free agent options Ken Holland may consider as he builds a bridge to the future
  • Jonathan Willis: Brett Connolly could be a good fit for the Oilers at a reasonable price-point.
  • Jonathan Willis: Five free-agent goalie options who might make sense for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: What we learned about the future of NHL at the 2019 Draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
  • Jonathan WillisOilers keep two, cut five, and potentially add new targets as qualifying deadline passes
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
  • Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanKen Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
  • Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
  • Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
  • Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

CURRENT OILERS DEPTH CHART (ESTIMATE)

I’ve included the two RFA’s (Khaira and Puljujarvi) and given them the Matt Cane estimate. If the team signs Brett Connolly, Mike Smith and Brian Boyle for a total of $6 million, that would use up the cap room above ($3.4 million) and the money devoted to Puljujarvi ($1.4 million), Cooper Marody ($925,000) and Shane Starrett ($700,000). Edmonton would have $400,000 or so in cap room with those three transactions. I think a trade that eases cap worries, or a buyout, is likely.

CURRENT CONDORS DEPTH CHART (ESTIMATE)

The defense has several (many!) possible recalls, but the forward group boasts only Yamamoto among the young set. Matriculating older college men (Gambardella, Russell) have a clear view, and veterans like Malone and Currie are available. Work to do here, too. Marody probably starts in Bakersfield, but the Oilers need more AHL entry contracts (forwards) with a high enough ceiling to project into the NHL mid-season. Maybe Holland will do enough to force Benson to start the season with the Condors. One thing to keep in mind? Jones, Bear and Lagesson are about to enter their final entry-level seasons, meaning they’ll be eligible for waivers this time next season. Cashing one for a forward may make sense. Soon.

A LITTLE MORE ON RAPHAEL LAVOIE

HockeyProspect.com: Lavoie’s toolbox is very impressive; he’s a big kid who has made some nice progress with his skating ability over the past 3 seasons. He has a big time shot and can score from almost anywhere in the offensive zone. It’s an NHL caliber shot which is accurate, has great velocity and he’s quick to get it off. He’s got above average vision, can make plays for his teammate with some high caliber passes.

Red Line Report: Tremendous natural sniper who buries his chances – deadly from the circles in. Gets great wrist snap on a lightning fast release around the slot – needs almost no time or space to get dangerous shots away. Tremendously accurate too, picking corners at will. Combined with his great size and knack for sliding into open ice at the right moment, he’ll be a scorer at every level.

The Draft Analyst: A puck-possessing machine with speed, size, and great awareness in the offensive zone. He owns an excellent shot, both for its quick release and also for its velocity, and Lavoie’s penchant for creating his own chances expands the ice for his linemates. He is a controlled and patient stick-handler who looks to incorporate the rest of his teammates into every cycle, and his keen vision and pass accuracy in tight spaces or off the rush allows him to play the role of playmaker. Lavoie is an excellent skater with above-average straight line speed and enough agility to weave around or fake opponents out of position.

WHAT MIGHT WE SEE THIS WEEKEND

I’m planning a relaxed weekend, but will be close to the rotary phone. Based on all the rumors we’ve heard, I would say a buyout today is possible (Sekera the most likely) and that Brian Boyle is the most likely free agent added. Goaltending will be addressed, uncertain about how it will get done.

People are already counting Brett Connolly, suspect that is unwise. Another team could wheel back and grab him, and perhaps the Capitals have asked him to play it cool early days. That said, it sounds like the Oilers are deep in the game on Connolly.

Jesse Puljujarvi traded to Carolina, Boston, Lightning or Pittsburgh. Tanev is a fascinating name, goalies include Mike Smith, Petr Mrazek, Curtis McElhinney.

Lower case forwards are Daniel Carr, Brett Ritchie, Brandon Pirri, Curtis Lazar.

Benning for Brown deal may still be out there, Donskoi and Chiasson whispers have been heard. One (apparently) sure thing? Gaetan Haas will be announced as a signed Edmonton Oilers player, giving more competition at center. A piece of trivia you may not know? Only one Haas has ever played in the NHL, David Haas, who was drafted by Edmonton in 1986. He played a little on the 1990-91 Oilers and then later for Calgary.

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272 Responses to "Keeps on Raining (Levee’s going to break)"

« Older Comments
  1. jtblack says:

    KESSELL. $8 MIL CAP HIT
    GALENCHUK $4.9 CAP HIT …

    Both get traded a lot 🙂

  2. jtblack says:

    ARIZONA missed the playoffs by 4 points. And they had a slow start …

    I think the Kessell add gives them another 4 – 5 points …. A motivated Kessell is always good. It’s when he gets bored that the results are mixed.

    Given reasonable Health for AZ, I think they get in for 2020 playoffs …

    Good Trade for them.

  3. jtblack says:

    I feel like OP now. … just messaging myself .. 🙂

  4. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack,

    They got a better player and more dynamic
    Unless they get Duchenne they are very weak at center

  5. Pescador says:

    ashley:
    Kessel sure gets traded a lot.

    Almost as much as Galchenyuk

  6. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer,

    I do agree. But they were weak at centre last year and almost made it …

    Kessell helps bigtime … + they added Soderburg ….

    2 good adds to a decent team ..

  7. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    I feel like OP now. … just messaging myself ..

    Summer has an LT withdrawal phase as action in the league declines for me too.

    Still look all the time , sometimes crickets.

    Kessel is one of those that has to score his face off to add to the team. He may well be past it 5v5.

    If you don’t want to play hard 200 every shift and can’t shoot the lights out options are getting slim. The cap means there are no freebie roster spots anymore.

    I continue to find it amazing that people looking at the paydays those guys do can’t find the motivation to continue to improve, especially skating of it’s an issue, and train their asses off in summer.

    especially given it’s all most of them have done at all in their lives to this point.

  8. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack:
    ARIZONA missed the playoffs by 4 points.And they had a slow start …

    I think the Kessell add gives them another 4 –5 points ….A motivated Kessell is always good. It’s when he gets bored that the results are mixed.

    Given reasonable Health for AZ,I think they get in for 2020 playoffs …

    Good Trade for them.

    Arizona had massive injuries last season.
    Average health and Kessel make them a playoff team.

  9. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: Arizona had massive injuries last season.
    Average health and Kessel make them a playoff team.

    You always look at the Top 8 and guess who is going to fall out??? not sure, but AZ should be right in the mix …

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Arizona had massive injuries last season.
    Average health and Kessel make them a playoff team.

    They will be close
    That center depth is lacking

  11. RonnieB says:

    leadfarmer:
    jtblack,

    They got a better player and more dynamic
    Unless they get Duchenne they are very weak at center

    Post-trade, Arizona has ~ $1.7 million in Cap space with 9 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies on their roster.

  12. pts2pndr says:

    commonfan29:
    I would love to someday get to a place with this team where I’m going into periods like this excited for the moves they might make to get better, rather than just bracing myself to read about how they’re again managing to throw away value, jettison skill and get at least a little bit worse and harder to manage long-term.

    It’s such a bummer.

    Give it two years.

  13. Harpers Hair says:

    RonnieB: Post-trade, Arizona has ~ $1.7 million in Cap space with 9 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies on their roster.

    They have Marian Hossas contract on the books and get almost $6 million in cap space as soon as the season begins.

  14. RonnieB says:

    I don’t get this Ceci for Zaitzev trade. Aren’t they basically same player with almost identical cap hits ?
    How does this help the Leafs Cap situation ? Any idea ?

  15. Lowetide says:

    RonnieB:
    I don’t get this Ceci for Zaitzev trade. Aren’t they basically same player with almost identical cap hits ?
    How does this help the Leafs Cap situation ? Any idea ?

    They could flip Ceci.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    Glovjuice: The 16 and 33 totally ruined the McDavid euphoria for me. I was flabbergasted as I had watched so much of Reinhardt. The Hall trade made me as sick as I have ever been for something that doesn’t really matter from a real life perspective. I have been less of an Oiler fan since that trade. I only partially enjoyed the recent playoff run. The Hall trade for me would will eclipse anything that comes moving forward including a 97 trade. I tried so hard to accept it and maybe even posted as such as a coping tool, really. I actually went to watch Hall at the rink in the Park I think durning the summer camp – and I think that type of behaviour is totally stupid for an adult to engage in (kids fine but not a lone adult).

    I get it. I feel fortunate that the Oilers had really lowered my expectations as a fan over the last 12 years. And prior to that, the direction of the whole league (cap era, parity, legal liability, corporate greed, etc) had me becoming more and more detached. I guess it may have been a blessing in disguise as many of the mistakes of the recent past havent hit me like they would have 25 yrs ago.

    During the decade of darkness the ONLY reason to watch the Oilers was ( Hall, RNH and Eberle ) I hope some day soon, McDavid, Draisaitl and the new cluster will pull us all back in. I hope that I still have it me to be a hard core fan. I hope that Chiarelli hasnt completely ruined it for you.

    A little hope is a dangerous thing.

  17. RonnieB says:

    Lowetide: They could flip Ceci.

    Maybe easier to flip than Zaitzev, but they only have 1 other RHD…Holl…so even if they flip Ceci for a pick, they probably still have to have ~ $8-12 million invested on the Right defense for 2 top 4 D. Which returns me to my question about their Cap space for the 2019/20 season. I can’t see how they manage to pay Marner without trading one of Kapanen/Johnsson.
    Edit: or Kadri.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    Sounds like no Doonskoi for us. Elliott gone. Burakovsky gone
    Connolly Nyqvist Mrazek,
    What other possibilities are out there?
    Those 3 guys each will want more money than we can afford but would fix some holes on this roster

  19. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: The 16 and 33 totally ruined the McDavid euphoria for me. I was flabbergasted as I had watched so much of Reinhardt. The Hall trade made me as sick as I have ever been for something that doesn’t really matter from a real life perspective. I have been less of an Oiler fan since that trade. I only partially enjoyed the recent playoff run. The Hall trade for me would will eclipse anything that comes moving forward including a 97 trade. I tried so hard to accept it and maybe even posted as such as a coping tool, really. I actually went to watch Hall at the rink in the Park I think durning the summer camp – and I think that type of behaviour is totally stupid for an adult to engage in (kids fine but not a lone adult).

    Toughen up it’s all part of being a Oiler fan Coffey,Gretzy,Messier Kurri Moog Fuhr Anderson Weight Joseph Arnott Guerin Muckler Sather smyth Pronger I know I missed a bunch as much as I loved all these players and Coaches it didn’t take away 1 ounce of spirit in cheering for My Home Town Team once a Oiler fan always a Oiler fan.

  20. Munny says:

    Wow, it only took four parsecs for the Pens to do the Kessel run. Take that, Solo.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just back from an amazing Vegan dinner here in Chicago and I read that Reimer is likely to be bought out tomorrow – if true, and Sekera is not (please no), it will be a successful June 30 for me.

  22. MushedPeas says:

    Just had a thought, and I’m sorry if it comes at the bottom of 300 comments:

    Wondering if anyone’s floated the following in the context of the much-talked Lucic-Eriksson option:

    1 for 1, Looch to Van, Loui EDM, both sides retain 50%.

    In essence: Both teams own both contracts for the duration (almost like a pool), BUT…
    A. Each player more tradable;
    b) Each player gets a breath of fresh, a chance at a better fit based on team need.

    Would you?

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    MushedPeas:
    Just had a thought, and I’m sorry if it comes at the bottom of 300 comments:

    Wondering if anyone’s floated the following in the context of the much-talked Lucic-Eriksson option:

    1 for 1, Looch to Van, Loui EDM, both sides retain 50%.

    In essence: Both teams own both contracts for the duration (almost like a pool), BUT…
    A. Each player more tradable;
    b) Each player gets a breath of fresh, a chance at a better fit based on team need.

    Would you?

    I would. Correct me if Im wrong but that might also give an assurance to both teams that if the either guy quits / retires the cap load is shared by both teams.

    Interesting twist.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    MushedPeas,

    Nope. The only reason I do that trade is Erickson has one year less. If I’m stuck with lucics last year at 3 mil I’d rather not do it.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eriksson scores at third line rates (at 5 on 5), kills penalties (with good to great numbers), is serviceable in quite high elite minute minutes and takes on defensive zone starts.

    He is simply a much better player than Lucic and adds more on the ice than Lucic.

    3rd line scoring rates plus PK – for even cap and Lucic – done!

  26. CallighenMan says:

    Harpers Hair: Arizona had massive injuries last season.
    Average health and Kessel make them a playoff team.

    Yeah, just like you used to spout that the Wild were going to be in multiple conference or Cup finals over the next 5 to 6 seasons (that was like 3 or 4 years ago … btw, doesn’t it get tiresome adjusting your posts slightly to make it seem like your multiple logins are really different people, or do you just not bother anymore … it DOES seem that way some time.

  27. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t think a happy Lucic is a worse player and Erickson is older
    Also while his numbers look good on paper he has only had one season of 100 pk min in last 3 seasons and someone that is an elite pker you’d think he would be used more
    Last year he was the 5th most frequently used forward on pk for Vancouver at just over 1 min per game so not really big sample sizes

  28. pts2pndr says:

    Bag of Pucks: A PTO costs us nothing and Lazar is not slow.

    We have made a number of bets on Ex Oil Kings, none have turned out well that I can remember and there have been epic fails and over pays!

  29. Gerta Rauss says:

    MushedPeas,

    It has been discussed previously, and yes, I would do that

    Lucic is a sunk cost at 4 years and $6M-any scenario that improves on that is a win imo

    And you can send Eriksson to the AHL if it comes to that

  30. MushedPeas says:

    leadfarmer,

    Stuck, but not buy-out stuck. And surely there’s a taker for a 3 mil Loui? Even if only as a trade dump w a sweetener added?*

    * Notably: Not a 6, mil 3 year sweetener.

  31. MushedPeas says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Already floated? Shoot. Thought I was squaring a circle 🙂

  32. pts2pndr says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Summer has an LT withdrawal phase as action in the league declines for me too.

    Still look all the time , sometimes crickets.

    Kessel is one of those that has to score his face off to add to the team. He may well be past it 5v5.

    If you don’t want to play hard 200 every shift and can’t shoot the lights out options are getting slim. The cap means there are no freebie roster spots anymore.

    I continue to find it amazing that people looking at the paydays those guys do can’t find the motivation to continue to improve, especially skating of it’s an issue,and train their asses off in summer.

    especially given it’s all most of them have done at all in their lives to this point.

    Money is no longer the motivator that it once was. To the top end athlete I am not sure it ever was the prime motivator. There is so much more to life than money, which is something that many people can not or are unwilling to accept.

  33. Victoria Oil says:

    MushedPeas:
    Just had a thought, and I’m sorry if it comes at the bottom of 300 comments:

    Wondering if anyone’s floated the following in the context of the much-talked Lucic-Eriksson option:

    1 for 1, Looch to Van, Loui EDM, both sides retain 50%.

    In essence: Both teams own both contracts for the duration (almost like a pool), BUT…
    A. Each player more tradable;
    b) Each player gets a breath of fresh, a chance at a better fit based on team need.

    Would you?

    It’s been mentioned here before, but yes I would do it, even though we end up paying $3 mln for Looch’s extra year.

  34. Gerta Rauss says:

    MushedPeas,

    I’ve seen a couple people suggest it, most notably Godot10

    My preference would be straight up, but I’d reluctantly agree to that as the “sweetener”

  35. pts2pndr says:

    Reja: Toughen up it’s all part of being a Oiler fan Coffey,Gretzy,Messier Kurri Moog Fuhr Anderson Weight JosephArnott Guerin Muckler Sathersmyth Pronger I know I missed a bunch as much as I loved all these players and Coachesit didn’t take away 1 ounce of spirit in cheering for My Home Town Team once a Oiler fan always a Oiler fan.

    I reside in the Okanogan now, I am and always will be an Albertan at heart and an Oiler fan until I get planted!

  36. MushedPeas says:

    To those who’ve responded:

    Does it make sense for VAN to bite?

    A Happy Looch could be effective.
    A 50% retained Looch easier to move.

    This feels like a good idea both ways, but willing to hear different (particularly from Nucks fans).

  37. Victoria Oil says:

    pts2pndr: Money is no longer the motivator that it once was. To the top end athlete I am not sure it ever was the prime motivator. There is so much more to life than money, which is something that many people can not or are unwilling to accept.

    You’re right that money shouldn’t be the major source of motivation, but how many 20 and 30-somethings realize that? I didn’t fully appreciate that at that age.

  38. MushedPeas says:

    Ah okay. I’m always slower than the comments.

    Sorry to rehash a Godot thread.
    Eager for it to be Tuesday and see what’s what’s.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    CallighenMan: Yeah, just like you used to spout that the Wild were going to be in multiple conference or Cup finals over the next 5 to 6 seasons (that was like 3 or 4 years ago … btw, doesn’t it get tiresome adjusting your posts slightly to make it seem like your multiple logins are really different people, or do you just not bother anymore … it DOES seem that way some time.

    The addition of Kessel, to any non playoff team does not make that team a playoff team.

  40. pts2pndr says:

    Victoria Oil: You’re right that money shouldn’t be the major source of motivation, but how many 20 and 30-somethings realize that? I didn’t fully appreciate that at that age.

    It is the motivator at times to get the contract. I am not sure that in todays society there is the motivation to earn the money being payed. I am of the belief todays athlete believes it is their entitlement.

  41. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: If you don’t know shit then why are you telling us “what the reality” is with respect to Sekera – a statement that implies those that have a differing view is wrong?

    You could be right, he may not move the needle, however, at the same time he very well may. He has for his career and he very well may again – summer training, training camp, not 5 months behind the league, having played 40 or so full games with the Worlds last year.

    There is almost no chance he’s not materially better than the player we saw last year down the stretch and that player was not a player to buy out.

    Sekera is the yin to OPs yang (Koskinen).

  42. Gerta Rauss says:

    MushedPeas:
    To those who’ve responded:

    Does it make sense for VAN to bite?

    A Happy Looch could be effective.
    A 50% retained Looch easier to move.

    This feels like a good idea both ways, but willing to hear different (particularly from Nucks fans).

    I think it depends on how much emphasis Benning places on grit and those type of intangibles

    There is money involved as well- a straight up trade adds $6M to the Canucks in real money- the 50% retained transaction adds $4M

    My fear is that if a deal was available it would have been done by now

  43. Victoria Oil says:

    pts2pndr: It is the motivator at times to get the contract. I am not sure that in todays society there is the motivation to earn the money being payed. I am of the belief todays athlete believes it is their entitlement.

    Which is why earlier today, I criticized Dubas’ decision to pay a very big chunk of the Kapanen and Johnsson (sp?) contracts up front with big July 1 signing bonuses. They will have money in their pocket now + no incentive to earn their keep.

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    – OK I lied. I’m smoking a gar on the deck. Turned on the internet everyone asleep

    – Winning 5 cups because a confluence of luck timing and everything working probably set wrong expectations. The only teams in sport that should “expect” more than a championship every 30 years are the Yankees or the lakers or a few other teams that can just spend whatever all the time because they are massive wealthy markets with 10x the revs, following, market global reach world class etc and in non cap (or just pay a penalty) leagues

    – We are 1 of 30. And we are small and no one cares about us. Our team doesn’t move the needle for the league. And hockey is so parity.

    – and while I am at it , I too am ticked off that we aren’t better and we’ve had bad management

    – But it would take an awesome management + IMO to have taken hall rnh ebs yak nurse klef to the cup. They just weren’t good enough compared as a whole to the cores that have won during our decade of darkness.

    – so hopefully in a few brah + Bouchard + Drai + McD + another > ebs + rnh + hall + yak. Certainly there is more promise and outs with our current emerging talent pool.

    – the rest is just details. You need 3-4 great players and surround them if you want to win multiple cups over 5-8 years now.

  45. rickithebear says:

    Woke up just now.
    Posted details were we only make playoffs with top 8 ga def.
    05-06 K Lowe’s season acquisitions dragged our team to #13 in GA.
    We make a cup final.
    16-17 we go to rd 2 and loose out to #3 GA (200) team Anaheim. Who still has the #1open HD pair in the game. Who do it facing 1st comp.

    We have missed 12 seasons of playoffs with #19 to #30 ga defence.

    Last 2 years we have achieved 232 GF.
    As long as we have Mcdavid, Drai, RNH & Low cap hit winger with high sh density.
    He gets 20+ G playing with Mcdavid.
    Our dmen do not usually score goals off the rush or generate much. HD shots off the rush.
    Our dmen score there even goals as 4th option shooters coming down to the circles
    We should continue to get 232 GF.
    We had 41evg from our bottom 7.17; players generating 5.72 evg per 82 gm.
    I want to acquire a collection of 8-12.5 evg forwards on 1&2 yr options. So we generate 23-24 more GF

    I want concentrate on 3-2-1 system with the Personel that we have cause we achieved top 8 with them.
    That is 223 GA per season. In current GA terms.
    255-256 GF and 223ga that is + 32-33.

    Which has gotten teams the lowest league point total ranks in last 5 yrs 18/19 to 14/15 of
    #9, #12, #9, #8, #8
    The highest league point total ranks in the last 5 yrs of
    #4, #6, #3, #3, #2

    All I want is Dmen who play defence first for our team

    A 9% jump in GA cause 3-1-1-1 is the way to go.

    Last 5 yrs of conf final teams.
    One advanced cause a refine failure in this years 1st round.
    15/19 were top 10 GA teams
    17/19 were top 16 ga teams

    6-10 yrs ago conf final teams
    16/20 were top 10 GA teams
    19/20 were top 16 GM’s teams.

    I do not just want to make the playoffs.
    I want a team that has a legitimate shot at championships

    I woke up at 1:00 pm to Post my first post.
    That partnered with this post would be a simplified % reward review to purge concepts.

    Of coarse there would be secret comparative work.

  46. RonnieB says:

    MushedPeas:
    To those who’ve responded:

    Does it make sense for VAN to bite?

    A Happy Looch could be effective.
    A 50% retained Looch easier to move.

    This feels like a good idea both ways, but willing to hear different (particularly from Nucks fans).

    I’m an Oiler fan, not a nucks fan. buy i’ll try to answer for them.
    After this year’s bonuses Louie will be owed just $9 million over the next 3 years including just $1 million salary in 2019/20. Lucic will be owed $16 million over the next 4 years. Arithmetic says the nucks would decline.

  47. rickithebear says:

    We know 7 of last 9 seasons lucic has played with a 3-2-1 sentric team in Bos, LAK, & EDM
    He has been a 81gm 23g 61P +16 Player.

    The last 2 years he has played in a 3-1-1-1 sentric team were he has dramatically changed his Open net targeting.
    He has been a 8G 19A 27P -10 player.

    Do we bitch about lucic.
    Or
    our mgmt for missing the playoffs in the 12 years we have run 3-1-1-1 centric 80’s hockey.

    That is another 13 goals witch could get us in the +45-46 range.

    Just run Mcdavid, Drai, RNH, Kassian, Lucic in 3-2-1 structure almost all the time.
    That gets us our +32-46.

    You can run 3-1-1-1 in the other 2 lines. One being DZ start based so 3-1-1-1 does not matter.
    The we are only subtracting GA from line #3

  48. jp says:

    MushedPeas:
    Just had a thought, and I’m sorry if it comes at the bottom of 300 comments:

    Wondering if anyone’s floated the following in the context of the much-talked Lucic-Eriksson option:

    1 for 1, Looch to Van, Loui EDM, both sides retain 50%.

    In essence: Both teams own both contracts for the duration (almost like a pool), BUT…
    A. Each player more tradable;
    b) Each player gets a breath of fresh, a chance at a better fit based on team need.

    Would you?

    I would also do that, if needed.

  49. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear,

    – Ricki I like this take- to what extent does a healthy D effect scoring do you think?

    – this would be really interesting and kind of the a nexus for evaluating forwards.

    – I know I’m right but I can’t source data: forwards score when the D is good

    – this blog has focused virtually all its attention on getting “top 6 wingers”. I’m not convinced. When we have 6 real D we score plenty.

  50. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t think a happy Lucic is a worse player and Erickson is older
    Also while his numbers look good on paper he has only had one season of 100 pk min in last 3 seasons and someone that is an elite pker you’d think he would be used more
    Last year he was the 5th most frequently used forward on pk for Vancouver at just over 1 min per game so not really big sample sizes

    But we don’t have a happy Lucic.

    I agree Eriksson’s age is a concern. And I also agree that Eriksson’s PK usage doesn’t imply eliteness. But, well, he seems to be. Maybe it’s why he’s upset with Travis Green.

    During his Vancouver career (3 seasons), he’s played 302 minutes at 4on5. There are only 92 forwards who’ve played 300+ minutes, so he’s been a regular penalty killer by league standards.

    Among the 92 forwards, Eriksson ranks thusly:
    CA/60 3rd
    FA/60 2nd
    SA/60 3rd
    GA/60 13th
    xGA/60 1st
    SCA/60 11th
    HDCA/60 1st
    So that’s pretty good.

    And for fun, his 3 years in Boston before that (Eriksson played 359 minutes, 101 forwards played 300+):
    CA/60 5th
    FA/60 4th
    SA/60 4th
    GA/60 6th
    xGA/60 7th
    SCA/60 5th
    HDCA/60 7th

    Honestly that’s just straight out remarkable, over a span of 6 yrs. I don’t know how to conclude anything other than that he’s an elite penalty killer, who should have been used more than he was last season.

    Aside from the year less on his contract this is the biggest reason I think he’d help the Oilers compared to Lucic, despite his age.

  51. Glovjuice says:

    Andy Dufresne: I get it. I feel fortunate that the Oilers had really lowered my expectations as a fan over the last 12 years. And prior to that, the direction of the whole league (cap era, parity, legal liability, corporate greed, etc) had me becoming more and more detached. I guess it may have been a blessing in disguise as many of the mistakes of the recent past havent hit me like they would have 25 yrs ago.

    During the decade of darkness the ONLY reason to watch the Oilers was ( Hall, RNH and Eberle ) I hope some day soon, McDavid, Draisaitl and the new cluster will pull us all back in. I hope that I still have it me to be a hard core fan. I hope that Chiarelli hasnt completely ruined it for you.

    A little hope is a dangerous thing.

    Never completely ruined. Too engrained. Its romantic, really; sports fans that cheer through epic failure. Just look at the Cubs. If I win a lottery I will hire a writer and director to create a film about the Cubs championship with the key story arc through a Chigago street news stand vendor who is like 80 and has never actually been in the stadium but had listened to every game for 60 years on the radio in their newsstand that sits two blocks from said stadium.

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Victoria Oil: Which is why earlier today, I criticized Dubas’ decision to pay a very big chunk of the Kapanen and Johnsson (sp?) contracts up frontwith big July 1 signing bonuses. They will have money in their pocket now + no incentive to earn their keep.

    No offence, but I think this is a pretty juvenile way of looking at professional athletes. Sure, they are motivated by money, but it’s one of many, many personal drivers. These guys have worked their whole lives to be professional hockey players. Thousands and thousands of hours training and playing as kids without getting a nickel. It’s almost inconceivable that they will simply mail it in once they have been paid. And I’m sure this does happen in the rare case, but not even remotely conceivable as a generalization. I think it’s more likely, but still rare, that someone could suddenly come jnto a very large sum of money and go off the rails and this might affect their performance. But again this would be rare.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    rickithebear,

    – Ricki I like this take- to what extent does a healthy D effect scoring do you think?

    – this would be really interesting and kind of the a nexus for evaluating forwards.

    – I know I’m right but I can’t source data: forwards score when the D is good

    – this blog has focused virtually all its attention on getting “top 6 wingers”. I’m not convinced. When we have 6 real D we score plenty.

    My SOE anslysis see a lot of 0 HD shots resulting from rovers penetrating OZ.

    Were the speed in the game has really shown is forwards penetrating OZ & pressuring the By speed vs forced turn of D.
    It allows penetration to net.
    Or allows the around net pass to
    3rd option fwds coming for pass in circles
    Or
    4th option fwds coming for a pass in circles.

    These are not a product of 3-1-1-1 play but quick intermediate open fwd transition passing that allows that speed to pressure the d in a non NZ trap zone entry.

    Guys like Gaudreau & Mcdavid have the speed to generate without transition passing but that is few and far between.

    Often times we see teams having Dmen involved in a 3-1-1-1 structure hoping to attack the 3-2-1 defences they are skating against. Which are set up to not yeild scoreable shots or Hidh danger area penetration.

    My SOE shows a lot of quick transition counters.

    But the most stupid one is Dmen skating from the HD area to pressure along the perimeter.
    Allowing for overlap.
    We are in a low D shot situation were shots are going in 5to 20 times less.

    What we see is yes fwds need to be measured by every highnacting critical affect.

    Not micro affects that are purged by any simplified value analysis.

    I have not really presented this portion of my value analysis until VOR was able to articulate the multivariable ( include all factors) Analysis I do.

    The most critical affects.
    -teamates
    -Comp
    – ZS can cause a 17- 40% variance in
    Presented my 3D graph that people said lacked sample size.
    But a yr later I realized that sample size only relates to binary exclusion.
    – closed shots (0X density) can exclude 33-90% of total shots.
    – HDSH to LDSH is a 5X:1X ratio
    – combined open HD creates the true league avg sh density chart.
    – 3-2-1 vs 3-1-1-1 fwd ( attacking) & def ( prevention) openness HD penetration & targeting success rates.

    Yes the 3-2-1 vs 3-1-1-1 is the last large acting situation affect.

    It generates the situation means for camparative performance analysis.
    It is failure analysis not to do so.

    When I look at analytics.
    I see what binary selected variables best capture true multi variable populations.
    What simple variables analysis lie to you the least.

    You here me rail against against PDO & DFF.

    Guess why?
    It does not pass the multivariable mechanism piss test!

    This is what I was taught from the inventors of
    Avro Arrow
    Lunar lander & service module
    Initial experimenters of nuclear powered space travel. (Area 25)
    The single Russian scientist I met in my house mid 70’s during the Cold War.
    He was the Inventor of the first cruise missle in early 1960’s.
    Magnlev train – Japanese counterpart from nuke powered rocket

    I used to do all my analysis this way.

    But thanks to Chemo my brain is unable to do that.

    Which is ok!

  54. rickithebear says:

    I woke up & kessel WTF!

    He is going to get the 1st line role in Arizona.
    A look at kessel by role.

    1st year Boston & last year Toronto 3 rd line treatment.
    82gm 13 evg

    1st line role 6 yr in Boston & Toronto
    78gm 23evg

    1st, 2nd, 3rd line role in Pit
    82gm 17 Evg

    Chaka trailed
    Domi
    71gm 5 evg in Arizona last 2 years

    For Galchyneak
    72gm 8 evg

    For Kessel
    82gm 23evg in first line role. Elite evg forward production.

    Now that is GMing!

    Buyouts frees up the same cap space for 2-4 yrs.
    to target lower cap cost veteran players for lines 3-4 for a 1-3 yr period of time.

    Buying out Manning & Gagner provides us Around 3.5M in cap space for 2 years
    Versus those 1 million each for sending them down this yr and 5.4M this yr.

    I prefer allowing us us to acquire up to 2-3 8 12.5 evg superior fwds to fill there spots.

    That is good gming!

  55. Victoria Oil says:

    JimmyV1965: No offence, but I think this is a pretty juvenile way of looking at professional athletes. Sure, they are motivated by money, but it’s one of many, many personal drivers. These guys have worked their whole lives to be professional hockey players. Thousands and thousands of hours training and playing as kids without getting a nickel. It’s almost inconceivable that they will simply mail it in once they have been paid. And I’m sure this does happen in the rare case, but not even remotely conceivable as a generalization.I think it’s more likely, but still rare, that someone could suddenly come jnto a very large sum of money and go off the rails and this might affect their performance.But again this would be rare.

    I’ve been in the hedge fund industry for many years and I have worked with many highly educated, experienced and well compensated investment professionals. And I can tell you unequivocally that incentives drive behaviour.

  56. Side says:

    Victoria Oil: I’ve been in the hedge fund industry for many years and I have worked with many highly educated, experienced and well compensated investment professionals. And I can tell you unequivocally that incentives drive behaviour.

    And how many of these highly educated, experienced professionals are pursuing a Stanley Cup?

  57. JimmyV1965 says:

    Victoria Oil: I’ve been in the hedge fund industry for many years and I have worked with many highly educated, experienced and well compensated investment professionals. And I can tell you unequivocally that incentives drive behaviour.

    So the players in a financial services industry are driven by money. Of course they are. Why else would they be in the industry? I bet a lot of them are also driven to beat the guy sitting next to them as well.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t think a happy Lucic is a worse player and Erickson is older
    Also while his numbers look good on paper he has only had one season of 100 pk min in last 3 seasons and someone that is an elite pker you’d think he would be used more
    Last year he was the 5th most frequently used forward on pk for Vancouver at just over 1 min per game so not really big sample sizes

    The stats were run and his PK numbers are high end to elite bordering back to his Boston days. Perhaps the lower minutes were a method to keep his overall minutes down. Either way I’m quite certain he’s better on the PK than Lucic.

    I don’t think Edmonton will ever have a happy Lucic unless he rebounds to a 35 point form. Shit may 30 can get the fans (including myself) to settle down a bit – combined with not being the slowest puck mover in the league.

    Age may favor Lucic. I mean, Ericksson has slowed down due to age. He’s hit his age-related decline. Lucic was 30 the last time he played a game. He’s fallen off a cliff and hasn’t even got to the age where one would expect the cliff. He could very reasonably fall much further as he hits, 32, 33, 34 – how scary is that?

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: The addition of Kessel, to any non playoff team does not make that team a playoff team.

    70, 92, 82

    Points in the last 3 seasons.

    Perfect player? Nope, however PPG at $6.8M, yes, that is a contract and player that helps a team even with wart.

  60. Reja says:

    jp: Sekera is the yin to OPs yang (Koskinen).

    That was funny.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Sekera is the yin to OPs yang (Koskinen).

    Koskinen has zero history of solid starting goaltending in the NHL.

    Sekera has a solid history of elite 2nd pairing/low 1st pairing success in the NHL.

    Sekera isn’t much older than Koskinen let many think Koskinen will “get better” while Sekera is in a major downslide.

    Everyone has their narrative to push I guess.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Finally listening to Howson on Oilers Now from a few days ago and it sounds like where Broberg plays this year, SHL or OHL is essentially entirely up to him at this point and the player will likely decide over the next 2-3 weeks.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: But we don’t have a happy Lucic.

    I agree Eriksson’s age is a concern. And I also agree that Eriksson’s PK usage doesn’t imply eliteness. But, well, he seems to be. Maybe it’s why he’s upset with Travis Green.

    During his Vancouver career (3 seasons), he’s played 302 minutes at 4on5. There are only 92 forwards who’ve played 300+ minutes, so he’s been a regular penalty killer by league standards.

    Among the 92 forwards, Eriksson ranks thusly:
    CA/60 3rd
    FA/60 2nd
    SA/60 3rd
    GA/60 13th
    xGA/60 1st
    SCA/60 11th
    HDCA/60 1st
    So that’s pretty good.

    And for fun, his 3 years in Boston before that (Eriksson played 359 minutes, 101 forwards played 300+):
    CA/60 5th
    FA/60 4th
    SA/60 4th
    GA/60 6th
    xGA/60 7th
    SCA/60 5th
    HDCA/60 7th

    Honestly that’s just straight out remarkable, over a span of 6 yrs. I don’t know how to conclude anything other than that he’s an elite penalty killer, who should have been used more than he was last season.

    Aside from the year less on his contract this is the biggest reason I think he’d help the Oilers compared to Lucic, despite his age.

    He has two years in a row of 3rd line scoring rates and the PK acumen you state above.

    Those are definitely two attributes this team needs. Considering Lucic brings the sum of zero to the team, add the contract comparisons, this is a no-brainer to me if its available straight up.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: So the players in a financial services industry are driven by money. Of course they are. Why else would they be in the industry? I bet a lot of them are also driven to beat the guy sitting next to them as well.

    I’m in financial services – corporate lending and I am not driven by beating anyone sitting next to me and my, while i negotiate major debt documents to (a) protect my clients rights and (b) get the best deal possible to them on covenants and structure vis-a-vis the market, at the end of the day, the clients and their advisors are working together towards a common goal.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t see Marleau signing in Edmonton but could he be a 3C option T $1.5M for one year?

    I believe he still had 37 points last year.

  66. Andy Dufresne says:

    Glovjuice: Never completely ruined. Too engrained.Its romantic, really; sports fans that cheer through epic failure. Just look at the Cubs. If I win a lottery I will hire a writer and director to create a film about the Cubs championship with the key story arc through a Chigago street news stand vendor who is like 80 and has never actually been in the stadium but had listened to every game for 60 years on the radio in their newsstand that sits two blocks from said stadium.

    Solid screen play structure for sure!

    A psychiatrist might say, Oilers fans under the age of 25, are represented by the Old Man; Never actually been in the race, always on the periphery.

    Notice the letters 4, 5, 6 & 7 in the word psychiatrist.

    Coincidence? I dont think so.

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Koskinen has zero history of solid starting goaltending in the NHL.

    Sekera has a solid history of elite 2nd pairing/low 1st pairing success in the NHL.

    Sekera isn’t much older than Koskinen let many think Koskinen will “get better” while Sekera is in a major downslide.

    Everyone has their narrative to push I guess.

    Koskinen’s legs haven’t fallen off in successive seasons. Sekera will still be useful, but the odds of him getting back to form are less than Koski becoming a serviceable goalie.

  68. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Koskinen has zero history of solid starting goaltending in the NHL.

    Sekera has a solid history of elite 2nd pairing/low 1st pairing success in the NHL.

    Sekera isn’t much older than Koskinen let many think Koskinen will “get better” while Sekera is in a major downslide.

    Everyone has their narrative to push I guess.

    I agree with you on both players. I just think you’re overreacting slightly (and in opposite directions) to the two players.

  69. LMHF#1 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Andy Dufresne,

    – Winning 5 cups because a confluence of luck timing and everything working probably set wrong expectations. The only teams in sport that should “expect” more than a championship every 30 years are the Yankees or the lakers or a few other teams that can just spend whatever all the time because they are massive wealthy markets with 10x the revs, following, market global reach world class etc and in non cap (or just pay a penalty) leagues

    I don’t even know where to start with this Kinger…you’re smarter than being so wrong in one paragraph.

    The Oilers early success, the history of NY baseball, what the Lakers were able to do…it’s the long weekend…a ton of reading available on all these subjects.

    Believe it’s all pixie dust and cash if you want the easy non-answer…there’s a ton behind it if you want to dig in.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Koskinen’s legs haven’t fallen off in successive seasons. Sekera will still be useful, but the odds of him getting back to form are less than Koski becoming a serviceable goalie.

    I don’t agree.

    Have you seen Sekera’s lets after a normal summer of training, a training camp and not 5 months behind the rest of the league?

    His legs looked fine at the Worlds as well.

  71. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Paddy Marleau hasn’t missed a game in over 10 seasons.

    I’m not sure how well he skates, but he’d already be one of our better wingers at least.

    Free agency will be a game of musical chairs until cap space runs out, which won’t take long.

    If Ottawa decides to spend money, they could really leverage their massive amount of cap space to get some good assets.

    https://puckpedia.com/teams

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Paddy Marleau hasn’t missed a game in over 10 seasons.

    I’m not sure how well he skates, but he’d already be one of our better wingers at least.

    Free agency will be a game of musical chairs until cap space runs out, which won’t take long.

    If Ottawa decides to spend money, they could really leverage their massive amount of cap space to get some good assets.

    https://puckpedia.com/teams

    I can’t imagine Malreau’s skating being an issue – he’s been one of the better skaters in the league for a decade plus – I’m sure he’s slowed down a bit but is still a fine skater.

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