Edmonton Oilers fans are antsy now, an extremely active trade and free-agent market Saturday night having passed with no transactions from the town team.
Here is the reality: Failing a major shift (Nurse suddenly available, fracture between Hall and New Jersey) the next few days are going to be about the players we’ve discussed: Brett Connolly, Petr Mrazek, Brian Boyle, et cetera. There is value there and those men represent quality within the narrow confines of Edmonton’s budget. Phil Kessel was never coming here, and the price point (Nuge?) would have been severe enough to ruin your Canada Day weekend.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Oilers buy out Andrej Sekera, look to a more dynamic free-agent frenzy.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers have a tough decision to make as the NHL buyout deadline looms
- Lowetide: Analyzing the free agent options Ken Holland may consider as he builds a bridge to the future
- Jonathan Willis: Brett Connolly could be a good fit for the Oilers at a reasonable price-point.
- Jonathan Willis: Five free-agent goalie options who might make sense for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: What we learned about the future of NHL at the 2019 Draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers keep two, cut five, and potentially add new targets as qualifying deadline passes
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Raphael Lavoie’s QMJHL coach is confident the Oilers’ No. 38 pick will prove worth the wait
- Jonathan Willis: Having added top KHL stopper Ilya Konovalov, how will the Oilers handle a crowded goalie pipeline?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland doesn’t lose sight of the big picture in drafting defenceman Philip Broberg over a forward
- Lowetide: The heat is on Ken Holland’s Oilers for Day 2 of the NHL Draft.
- Lowetide: Oilers Draft Day 1: Getting it right at No. 8 overall and multiple trade winds for Ken Holland.
- Willis and Mirtle: Are the Oilers and Maple Leafs good trading partners?
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Analyzing the early Edmonton Oilers’ 2019-20 depth chart.
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ conundrum in taking Philip Broberg with the No. 8 overall pick
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evaluating the pros and cons of potential Oilers buyout candidates
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
TODAY AND TOMORROW
Ken Holland should be represented by the country classic “A Worried Mind” today because there’s a very narrow road to success and several balls to juggle at once. If he can nail the landing on free agency, Edmonton will have Brett Connolly, Petr Mrazek and Valteri Filppula. That’s a really good haul, depending on price point.
In order for us to carry on a rational conversation, we have to agree on some things. For instance, trading Nikita Zaitsev for Cody Ceci is not a trade to get upset about unless you cheer for Toronto or Ottawa. Fair?
Okay, here’s a reasonable expectation for the Oilers during free agency, and let’s be real some of these moves happen mid-July or later.
Goal: Mikko Koskinen, PETR MRAZEK
Left Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Manning
Right Defense: Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, Matt Benning
Center: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, BRIAN BOYLE, Colby Cave, Kyle Brodziak
Left Wing: Leon Draisaitl, DANIEL CARR, Jujhar Khaira, Milan Lucic
Right Wing: BRETT CONNOLLY, Zack Kassian, Joakim Nygard, Sam Gagner, Josh Currie.
BUYOUT SUNDAY
Will it happen? If we use Andrej Sekera as the example, and ask Caleb Jones to replace him, Holland would have $2,280,000 new free-agent dollars. Matt Cane’s free agent list suggests Edmonton could buy Tyler Ennis, Val Filppula, Brian Boyle, Noel Acciari, Brandon Pirri, Ryan Carpenter. Are those names worth the pain of buyout punishment? The only opinion that matters is Holland’s and we wait.
FIXING A HOLE
If you’re still in shock re: How many free agents Edmonton isn’t talking to, allow me to introduce you to a novel idea. Ken Holland isn’t going to solve all of the roster problems in free agency, but he’s also avoiding an albatross contract for the next seven years. His job over the new couple of weeks is to find competition for roster spots.
Brett Connolly, should he sign with Edmonton, will become one of the top three options on right wing. Connolly, Zack Kassian and Sam Gagner would represent the veteran group holding on to a valuable roster spot (top-9 forward). Joakim Nygard, Jesse Puljujarvi (hopefully), Kailer Yamamoto and possibly Cooper Marody will be pushing. That’s the deal.
Daniel Carr, should he sign, would join Nygard, Tyler Benson and Joe Gambardella as possible options should Draisaitl, Lucic and Khaira falter.
Brian Boyle is there because Kyle Brodziak had a difficult season, Colby Cave may not be fast enough and Ryan McLeod is too far away.
Ken Holland, it seems to me, is making Connolly and another goaltender a priority. He might have to buy out someone to add Boyle.
I think the prospects we should be paying most attention to in training camp are Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard, Caleb Jones, Joel Persson. Joe Gambardella, Josh Currie and Patrick Russell are also in photo.
CODY CECI
Toronto trading for Cody Ceci is fascinating, one of the truly unusual transactions I’ve seen in some time. Kyle Dubas does smart things, not all of the time, but very often. Why did he value Ceci? I do know the Oilers valued him in the past, and wonder if there’s another trade coming.
Ooooooooh, Is that a shot at Godot ?
12 goals would have been good for 6th on the Oilers last season. There’s that. He shot under 10%.
At least he’s cheap, in his prime, and a 1-year contract. He was third in Toi/g on the Canucks in PK.
Granllund doesn’t look like much of an add, but he appears to be an upgrade on Rieder.
He wanted to come here.
Talbot getting a $2.75 million contract with the Flames.
🙁
Looking at his fancies, I can’t see much to recommend Granlund.
Nothing stands out. Bad at face offs. Is mostly a Winger not a Center.
Dont know……
Anyone see what his qualities are?
He just turned 26 in April, so 2019 will be his 26 yr old season.
He was getting alot of Dzone starts in the last two yrs.
62.5 and 58.3
And his takeaway ratio is positive 23 to 4 at evens.
Stauffer said/hinted that they “might” look at a couple of inexpensive Dave Tippett “types” of players for the bottom six. Is Granlund a Tippet type? Guess so.
Kenny Holland said he likes guys that have what he calls “motors” (like the terminator) an endless supply of energy and tenatiousness. Does Granlund have a “motor”?
Somewhere around 13% of our cap going towards Lucic and Buyouts. Geez Louise
Can’t sign someone you just bought out.
Didn’t check, does he take draws and actually play centre?
If so, he has to be an upgrade over Brodziak/Cave.
Don’t know yet but it won’t be much. He made $1.4M last year and didn’t get qualified – will be less than that.
Well said
Bought out players can’t re-sign with the team that bought them out for one season.
But the thing about Lucic, is that if you rip off the bandaid, you find the bandaid is still there.
1.3 mil for 1 yr as per Strickland for Granlund
I’d like Sekera back on a PTO if he doesn’t get an offer this summer. I still believe.
We need someone who can win a faceoff .. Maybe Sheehan comes too !!
How much cash for Mr Granlund
Good (assuming value) signing. From Oulu…same as Pitkanen…WAY north in Finland.
At today’s media avail, Holland will let us know if we had Granlund’s 12 goals last year instead of Reider’s 0 we would have made the playoffs *face-palm*
Granlund scored at replacement level/4th line rates at 5 on 5 and had negative possession metrics but positive metric relative to his teammates. His most common linemates were clearly bottom 6, Virtanen, Motte, Roussell – he may have more to give offensively if given middle 6 or perhaps top 6 linemates.
He played almost 2.5 min/g on the PK so that is great that we have a heavily used PK guy coming.
Looks like Grandlund will be an Oiler on a one-year deal – Friedman.
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Expect EDM to add Markus Granlund on a one-year deal. Fresh start for him.
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Granlund is a nice start? Hope its cheap
My post speaks to the need for a veteran cover if Russell is disposed of.
Man, disposing of Sekera over Russell, in particular with in a buyout scenario, really stings and effs things up a bit.
“Just a reminder. Valtteri Filppula is 35 years old….”
____________________________________________
Anything more than a one-year deal would be egregious.
I wonder if Holland will try for another performance bonus deal – if so, the base better be fully buryable.
Have a strange feeling oilers will sign phaneuf to a 1 year deal today. Just can’t shake it
It’ll be a damn shame if Connolly signs in Florida for $3.5M x 4. I would take him here at that price, no question. Of course, maybe he just wanted to live in Miami…
How does that take away from the Brodziak/Filppula comparison when someone says Fillpula is Brodz with offence?
Brodz had offence the year before he signed with Edmonton just as Filppula would if he signed with Edmonton this year and he is no younger than when Brodz provided the offence in STL.
Just a reminder. Valtteri Filppula is 35 years old….
I would like to see Russell for Perreault with no retention. I think this helps both teams… but with Sekera gone I’d hesitate to trade Russell because no veteran cover, although I suppose there will be UFA defensemen willing to sign for 1 year.
Sounds like Ennis will be heading to Ottawa along with Hainsey.
OriginalPouzar,
Brodziak was 33 when he gushed all that offence with St. Louis.
St. Louis made a choice not to sign him.
Two kinds of people on Brodziak last year;
1) People who were surprised Brodziak only had 9 points on 70 games
2) People who were Not Surprised
Any interest, potential for Chiarot and Ferland as options?
Haven’t spent any time whatsoever on relative statistics and performance, just looking for options to possibly upgrade. So are they potential upgrades?
I liked Chiasson, good start but a big fade over the season. Still if he is interested in resigning.
Just my non-analytical questions on a holiday Monday.
Ben Hutton would be a defenseman I would be interested in. I understand Caleb down at Bakersfield played mainly right side.
Nyquist at 3 years or less would be amazing
Fillpulla 1 year only, please
Riley Sheahan 2 year max
I’m concern about the term on some of these players if Holland decides to sign them
Spezza to TO on a one year, $700K deal – that’s a great value bet – damn.
With losing Trouba and Myers I wonder if WIN would be interested in Russell at $1M retained?
I know they need right shot D now but “Russell can play both sides”.
Maybe we can pry Ehlers lose – it would take much more than Russell at $3M, likely one of our top prospects like Samorukov or Benson as well and maybe more.
We have the cap room now and if we clear $3M with Russell.
Sign a cheap veteran D like Gravel for depth (which we’d need if both Russell and Sekera are gone).
He’d be fine/great for 3 years or less. 4 years or more I don’t like.
Can’t believe it would be the former.
Stralman under $2M? That’s not realistic. I’m not sure its realistic to think about Stralman under $4M or under 3 years.
but he’ll need to be replaced on the roster by a player so the cap saving will only be a few hundred grand depending on the replacement.
True and solid point but, on the other hand, Tippett changes his systems to those that will help the roster he is given succeed – he always has an eye on defence with moving the puck as a 5 man unit but his systems and deployment were different in ARI than DAL and will likely be a different in EDM than either.
I am 100% on board with hoping that Smith/Koskinen prove to be a great due this year and, Smith plays great and Starrett does great in his 3 starts during Smith’s groin injury IR time.
Holland did say he was contemplating a buyout and he never said he wouldn’t buy out Sekera – has has said expressly that Bouchard is an example of a player that should be in the AHL.
Time will tell if he’s true to that word and, yes, of course, its anyone’s guess who will be on the team in the depth spots but we’re just discussing here, as the community is for.
Brodziak had offence the year in STL before signing in Edmonton.
Nyquest at 3 years or less would be amazing – it does sound ilke Holland was holding firm on term which is essential from that player.
They will spend some of the money, clearly, they don’t have a full roster yet.
Being a few million under the cap at the end of the off-season would be nice.
Of course, my post said “if the goalies hold and they are in the hunt….” so I spoke to your last point.
Same as it ever was.
Cup core roster:
1. Top open HD def system coach
-Tippet was #1 option on market.
2. Top 10 open HD save% goalie
– Smith was the #1 option on the UFA market
3. 3+ top 60 open HD Dmen.
Make them shoot from the perimeter (les than 1.5x shots)
Force high % of corsi yeilded by failed forward entry reduction to 0% corsi:
blocks + misses + closed shot ( hit goalie 0% chance shot)
– Larsson Top 10 Open HD dman facing 1st comp
– Benning Top 40 facing 2 Nd/3rd comp
– Nurse is a 20 total even pt top 60 HD dmen when attacking without providing free path to HD area.
– Russell an elite closed Corsi dman gets dpartners rank results.
4. Top team in top 125 fwd depth
Mcdavid 2.796 125 fwds
Draisaitl 2.268 125 fwds
RNH 1.531 125 fwd
Chaisson 1.20 top 125 fwd with41.66% of Draisaitl s even TOI.
Kassian .842 top 125 ev fwd with 31.45% of Mcdavids even TOI.
We should expect a total of 3.00+ top 125 ev fwds if we run
Draisaitl – Mcdavid – RW A & B & C getting 33.33% of lines TOI
Now if we can chase as much Cummulative Top 125 ev production in our bottom 7 Fwds
Fillpulla .850 top 125 ev fwd 77 gm 11.5 evg 26 Evp
Hartman .866 top 125 ev fwd 79gm 11.667 evg 25.667 Evp
Sheahan .643 Top 125 ev fwd 78gm 8 evg 21 evp
Archibald 68 gm 9 evg 17 Evp
Paajarvi 80 gm 8 evg 14 evp
5. Top special team goal differential.
Top PK fwd
#12 J. Archibald 1:15 PKtoi, 4.76 pkga/60
#45 Khaira 1:14 pktoi, 5.92 pkga/60
#60 Paajarvi 1:30 pktoi, 6.23 pkga/60
#80 Sheahan 1:45 pktoi, 6.53 pkga/60
#113 fillpulla 1:37 pktoi, 7.01 pkga/60
Archibald, Sheahan, fillpulla, gets us 30 evg and 3 of the best ufa pk fwds in the market.
I like Lee better than Nyquist. Expect we get Nyquist. Expect a 5 year deal.
Question is $. Probably $5.5 to 6.0m. Not a big fan at that price. Team will be better years 1-3 though.
Not a big fan of Sekera buy-out. I guess the worry now is that we avoid another Pouliot situation (bought out to create Cap space… that was never used in an actual deal… FA signing or otherwise).
Happy… until it doesn’t pan out. My biggest concern is that bringing in 4 or 5 new guys at $2m or less is really just smoke and mirrors; it will look like Holly is very proactive in fixing this mess, but placing bets on these guys is just covering his a$$ because he couldn’t sign a bigger name (due to lack of cap and UFA interest).
If we sign Holland’s boy Nyquist which it’s starting to feel like how much and how long?
Please please Holland don’t sign anyone tomorrow. I will consider a Nyquist or Dzingel signing an absolute disaster and a continuation of a long history of bad Oiler signings.
Crazy Pedestrian,
Lol
It is curious, I don’t recall in past years the steady stream of “sure things” prior to July 1. There was always whispers, but this year seems different