The Searchers

Two days ago, we were talking Brett Connolly, Petr Mrazek and Brian Boyle. Yesterday it was Mike Smith, Gustav Nyqvist and Valtteri Filppula. Today? Mike Smith, Alex Chiasson and Markus Granlund. This is where the host says something like ‘short term contracts are your friend’ and the comments section responds “where in h-e-double-hockey-sticks is the scoring winger?” and that my friends will be discussed for many weeks.

Ken Holland made some bets and some will work. If Mike Smith posts a .915 save percentage, Alex Chiasson scores a dozen, Markus Granlund pops 10 and Tomas Jurco scores seven after Valentine’s Day, we’ll still argue over yesterday.

I’m not in love with any of yesterday’s moves (Granlund and Khaira are two players I like), but the only major issue from this weekend came through raised expectations from the Andrej Sekera buyout. Making more money available and then hiring role players is a strange brew.

The Oilers didn’t use the Rej cash to get the scoring winger, but the need remains. The scoring winger needs to be in Edmonton by training camp if the team has any hope of making the playoffs. Who should fans look for as a solution? Who could be dangled? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • New Lowetide: Oilers add free agent Markus Granlund, creating a crowded depth chart at left wing
  • New Jonathan Willis: Tomas Jurco is a nice little reclamation bet by the Oilers.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How re-signing winger Alex Chiasson impacts the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: Oilers add Mike Smith to an uneasy goalie depth chart for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers buy out Andrej Sekera, look to a more dynamic free-agent frenzy.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Taking stock of Oilers prospects ready to graduate with a clear shot at an NHL job in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

CURRENT 50-MAN (48)

There’s one slide (goalie Rodrigue) and that means the team has room for maybe one or two more names. More likely we see a trade; it’s also possible we see a Ken Holland special, defined as a draft pick for a player, or a player for a draft pick. Jesse Puljujarvi is listed here, that may change.

PROJECTED ROSTER AND CAP

Holland will need to add a No. 3 center and a scoring winger. Three of the four RW spots are occupied by veterans (Kassian, Chiasson, Gagner) and now three veterans own the top spots on the left side (Draisaitl, Lucic, Granlund). It doesn’t matter, but I’d like to see a righty shooter added on the wing. Holland will get someone before October, that’s the job.

Ken Holland: “What I was hoping to accomplish over the summer time—and there’s still two months to go—was to get another goaltender. We need more players who can get double-digit goals. Markus Granlund’s resume says he should be able to score double digit goals. We signed Nygard. We signed Jurco. We signed Haas. We signed Jujhar Khaira. We’ve started that. I don’t think we’re done.”

OILERS PRICES AND MATT CANE

I have a theory that goes like this: Oilers have to overpay in term or AAV to get free agents to sign in Edmonton. Is that what happened this year? Here’s the signing numbers compared to the Matt Cane predictions.

Alex Chiasson $2.15M times two (Matt Cane $3.125M times three)

Mike Smith signed $2M plus bonus (Matt Cane doesn’t estimate goalies)

Markus Granlund $1.3M times one (Matt Cane $2.190M times two)

Jujhar Khaira $1.2M times two (Matt Cane $1.138M times two)

Well, sometimes my theories are wrong, and I’m man enough to admit it. In fact, I estimated Chiasson at $3.2M in mid-season and it came in far lower. Of course, when I made my estimate Chiasson had just romped through the first part of the season (33, 16-4-20) and the second half (40, 6-12-18) tempered salary expectations. Either way, it was a fun exercise.

SUCCESSFUL PAIRINGS

Now that we have something resembling the roster, let’s do a quick review on what worked last season. It’s difficult to construct entire lines, so let’s look for pairs. Here are the 5-on-5 60 scoring totals by individuals as part of tandems.

McDavid (18-29-47 3.50) and Draisaitl (21-24-45 3.35) together

McDavid (9-12-21 2.94) and Kassian (6-8-14 1.96) together

RNH (3-7-10 2.83) and Lucic (4-2-6 1.70) together

RNH (3-2-5 1.04) and Chiasson (3-3-6 1.24) together

RNH(4-1-5 1.69) and Khaira (1-4-5 1.69) together

Colby Cave 1-0-1 0.67) and Gagner (2-1-3 2.00) together

ASSETS OUT

The names discussed before free agency (Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning, Khaira) may now give way to prospect assets and future draft picks. The 2020 draft is apparently a monster, so that’s something to keep in mind. Also keep in mind prospects acquired by the previous general manager are orphans, even the good ones.

I don’t think Brown warrants a second-round pick in a normal draft year, so passing on this deal is a good decision. Connor McDavid is the world’s best hockey player, but he isn’t a general manager and he is under contract to play for the Edmonton Oilers through 2026 summer. I’d rather see the team build it right and that includes offloading cap problems and building up the system. I have no quarrel with this route, beyond the previously stated raised expectations on the Sekera buyout. Also have to find a scoring winger.

PATRICK MAROON

The Maroon rumors have me wondering if there is a Lucic trade on the way. That’s the only way it makes sense.

POSSIBLE SCORING WINGERS

The names are running low now and Edmonton needs a fix (unless Jurco is the surprise solution). Ken Holland didn’t want to spend big on Connolly, et cetera, so the alternative is trade. Make no mistake, he has to go get scoring on one of the wings, otherwise this is the Chiarelli plan (with Sekera’s buyout the twist).

1 LW Jason Zucker, Minnesota. Rumored to be gone at least twice to specific teams, he’s a consistent 20-goal man and a first-shot scorer. $5.5 million for four more years.

2 LW Chris Kreider, NY Rangers. Big, strong, fast and 28 goals. He’s $4.63 million with just one year left.

3 LW Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg. Now is the time to strike, send a blue for the shooting Hemsky.

4 F Nikita Gusev, Vegas Golden Knights. They are apparently shopping him and even though he’s more playmaker than shooter, he could no doubt help.

5 RW James Neal, Calgary. If there’s interest in Lucic, then Neal would be a solid return. Risk for sure, but he’s not far removed from a productive season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with miles to discuss, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic gets us started, and John Matisz from The Score will talk about that big Maple Leafs-Avalanche trade yesterday. We’re reaching out for an NBA guest to talk Kawhi and might have another trick or two up our sleeves as well. 10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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336 Responses to "The Searchers"

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  1. Doug McLachlan says:

    with respect to the Sekera buyout, I haven’t read any discussion of the timing of the buyout in terms of the years where there are cap savings, 19-20 and 20-21, vs the years when the cap will be hit, 21-22 and 22-23.

    I am generally very opposed to buyouts but if the best Sekera could find after his buyout was a 1 year deal for $1.5M it’s pretty clear to me that a trade, even with retained salary, wasn’t an option for Holland without a sweetener and I’m ok with that thinking.

    The space that Holland has opened up isn’t much, $3M, but it is during the NHLPA self-imposed years of restraint on the cap escalator (this year and the next). Cap growth will be very stagnant so I’m pleased to see even a little more wiggle room in those two years. Conversely, when the $1.5M in dead money kicks in the NHL should be relatively more flush with Seattle coming on board and a new US television package coming on board.

    More generally, I am impressed that Holland showed some restraint in his July 1st signings. Nothing longer than 2 years (good!) and nothing excessive in terms of cost. Yes, he bought a lot of scratch tickets but that’s kinda where we are at unless a trade possibility opens up.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Due to the continued inability to quote, this is in response to the following by Elvis:

    On LW, Holland is going to give the first shot to the guys he signed.That’s Granlund and Nygard.Lucic and Khaira aren’t going to the minors so they are on the team, too.That leaves Benson and Gambardella on the outside looking in.Jurco is a left shooting RW, I believe (plus he’s an ex-Red Wing so will automatically get a shot on the team).At center, Haas will get the first position because he’s Holland’s signing.I believe Cave gets the second position, while Brodziak and Marody will go to Bakersfield.

    ______________________

    I don’t imagine Hass will be in the NHL to start the year and I think too much emphasis is put on Holland being the guy that signed them vs. actual performance.

    Guys like Granlund and Khaira are NHL players, end stop: they will be on the team and guys like Joe G. and Benson will compete with the likes of Nygard and Jurco and I truly believe the better performing player will get the job. Not to mention, my guess is Holland will defer to Tippett on these.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    Looks like a few of you hate ArmchairGMs message and therefore hate the messenger.

    My biggest fear is that Ken’s record since 2013 is similar to Chia’s and the modern Cap age game has passed him by. See Dubas, Kyle.

  4. Buddy says:

    Before Chiarelli, we spent a decade stockpiling 6-7 D.

    Now we’re focused like a laser beam on filling the 12-14 F spots.

    It’s different.

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    I would encourage all to read this article, it very nearly sums up my thoughts.

    https://theathletic.com/1059795/2019/07/02/willis-oilers-gm-ken-holland-promises-long-term-rewards-for-an-approach-light-on-short-term-improvements/

    Maybe, maybe Holland pulls a rabbit out of his hat this summer. But so far, it’s looking like more of the same.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shockingly, I cannot quote and am responding to the following post by McNuge:

    Do you guys know (of course you do) if Haas, Nygard or Persson) don’t work out early in the year can they be loaned or sent back to Europe and thus not the AHL and would that remove them from the 50 list?

    _______________________________

    Not without contracts over-seas.

    Wouldn’t want to do that anyways, I wouldn’t think – all three could very well slit time between the AHL and NHL next season. If they aren’t on the NHL team, I want them helping the AHL team and continuing to play in North America.

  7. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I see, 23 relentless negative and increasingly hostile posts constitutes a reasonable level of frustration regarding the lack of (so far 2 days into free agency) signing of a top 6 winger, a D and and goaltender?

    My post was in response to someone who pointed out the lack of respect this engenders and that effectively shuts down any reasonable discourse and I was attempting to utilize some humour – apparently inadequately – to suggest that maybe the nuclear level of anger was not necessary. That maybe if one is THAT frustrated with how things are going, this might be a good time to take a breather.

    I’m not interested in offending anyone. But I do think it is fair to suggest that discourse can remain civil and rational.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: And look how much better Detroit is because of it! Oh, wait…

    Meanwhile, Detroit is in a similar cap situation to Edmonton anyhow, due to Holland giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players. I’m not sure what your point is anymore.

    Giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players is exactly what Holland did not do yesterday and is something that is often done by managers on July 1.

    Kudos should be given

  9. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    OriginalPouzar: Giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players is exactly what Holland did not do yesterday and is something that is often done by managers on July 1.

    Kudos should be given

    Absolutely agree.

  10. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    One of the positives of regime change too is there should be no compunctions about putting Lucic in the press box now if that’s what his play warrants.

    Send the message to the big man at the start of training camp.You want icetime? Earn it. Your job is not guaranteed because you have a big contract.

    Well said. This needed to happen last year and didn’t because he was chia’s signing. I would guess this happens very quickly if looch plays the same way this year. One would have to think he is smart enough to know there is an new sheriff AND a new deputy in town.

    Suspect he is in the PB by the tenth game at the latest.

  11. Leroy Draisdale says:

    ashley: I don’t find your comments very respectful.

    It’s a shame as many of us come here – and don’t go to other places – for vigorous and respectful debate.

    ARMCHAIRGM
    I pointed out that your take wasn’t based on facts. You respond by saying “you sound angry” – and now you want to lecture me on being respectful? That’s a laugh!

    To be fair, I find a lot of your comments very informative and appreciate the work you put into them. You do seem a bit punchy though. It may not be your intention and is likely driven by your passion for the Oilers but the tone does come across as pretty aggressive and not very respectful.

  12. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I can’t really agree with “relax, it’s only July 2nd”

    12! Out of 13 years! Out of the playoffs! I’m not trusting in the plan & I’m not going to expect a magical move pulled out of a hat on August 25th. Get better!

    Benson will be the best winger added to the big club next season & it’s not close. A pretty optimistic scenario for Nygard/Haas is them being as good as Pakarinen right?

    23rd place in 2017-18, 25th last year. With minimal roster turnover, arguably a downgrade in goal, is 25th-26th not estimated finish right now?

  13. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players is exactly what Holland did not do yesterday and is something that is often done by managers on July 1.

    Kudos should be given

    Money was spent though – over $9M including a $1M bonus allowance for Smith – just not on anything that moved the needle. But maybe I’m wrong and the 6 July 1st signees knock it out of the park next season. I hope I am (there’s that word again).

    $9.35M spent HOPING
    – that Smith rebounds at 37 years of age
    – that Haas can make the NHL and have an impact
    – that Jurco can make the NHL and have an impact
    – that Khaira has an 11 goal season following a 3 goal campaign
    – that Chiasson scores 15-20 for the next 2 years when his career average is 12.5
    – that Granlund can score double digits in goals from the bottom 6

    Ok, that last one isn’t so much of a stretch, but that’s what we said about Rieder last summer too, remember?

    Forgive me if I’m pessimistic that the $9M is well spent.

  14. blainer says:

    ArmchairGM: If you consider Johnsson and Kapanen to be similar players to Nygard and Haas, I’ve got an oceanfront property in Arizona you might be interested in.

    Really sad to hear you got stuck with an oceanfront property in Arizona.. what were you thinking?..lol

    I do agree though that these Euro’s are not likely to pan out but I will at least give Holland the benefit of the doubt. This will certainly be a test on what kind of an eye for talent he has.

    The man walked into a mess and is trying to work with the shitty hand he was dealt without making said shitty hand even worse.

    By the looks of things Haas comes with a rep ..albeit from Europe.. with a sound two way game that his coach depends on from accounts I have read. His skating looks pretty good to me as does his shot and he is now entering his prime years..

    I for one will reserve judgement until I see them play.. while I’m also not overly optimistic it does provide some competition..

    We wait…

  15. Reja says:

    I wanted Zegras or another forward not Broberg but can see the reasoning.
    I was kinda shocked they bought out Sekera have to trust Holland on this one.
    I wanted Russell traded but sadly nobody on his list wants him.
    I have been whining for 1-2 top 6 forwards for months.
    I liked Holland’s low level signings yesterday not much option without trading one of the posse.
    I liked the Mike Smith signing in a sadistic way I’m sure Tippett was all thumbs up with that.
    I am not mad at Holland because he couldn’t trade Lucic or buyout a buyout prove contract
    I’m happy they resigned chase for 2 years at that price and the vile from posters for 2.7% of cap is hilarious unless of course your Chaisson reading and hearing it.
    I loved the Oilers since day one of franchise
    I will always cheer for Oilers good are bad and I will always hate the Flames.
    I believe Oilers will make the playoffs and have a top 10 goaltending tandem
    I believe Mcdavid will host the cup within 5 years starting now. No wait. Starting now.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was able to confirm that 30 min is the threshold to count as a “game played” vis-a-vis Mike Smith’s performance bonuses.

  17. Admiral Ackbar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players is exactly what Holland did not do yesterday and is something that is often done by managers on July 1.

    Kudos should be given

    Kudos for not soiling one’s pants in the absence of a gastrointestinal disorder ought to be patronizing but such is the narrative for Oilers GMs. In any event, Holla didn’t have the cap space to pull off a foolish signing. So giving him credit for not screwing up seems a little forced.

    All the moves seem to be largely neutral. You could speculate them equally as having as much upside as they do downside. He doesn’t deserve kudos for that. Other GMs may be actually improving their teams while ours is toiling with the bottom of the lineup.

    That he didn’t sign an inflated contract is at best a silver lining. If you take that as your central takeaway, I’m betting that you’re missing the larger narrative: thus team isn’t getting better, really.

  18. blainer says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Looks like a few of you hate ArmchairGMs message and therefore hate the messenger.

    My biggest fear is that Ken’s record since 2013 is similar to Chia’s and the modern Cap age game has passed him by. See Dubas, Kyle.

    Yup.. I was thinking the same thing but will give him one year before I shit on him just based on the teams current situation.. Not sure what the options that were available to the Oilers either but the game is changing. It does seem to be a game where geezer’s like myself are running most of the teams..

  19. Doug McLachlan says:

    Munny:
    I agree with all those above who point out job #1 yesterday was to fill out the bottom 6 and do something about last year’s horrific GA and PK . GA is what kept us out of the playoffs more than any other single reason.

    This.

    We were -42 in goal differential. No team in the West got in with a negative goal differential. The “worst” team was Dallas who were +8.

    Our sv% was a distressing .898 and was obviously not good enough. I would love for us to get a top 6 winger but unless he can score 50 from the Reider slot in the line-up it is not how we get out of this mess.

    Simply, as if it will be simple, improving our atrocious sv% from sub-.900 to .915 flips our goal differential (all other things being equal) to a plus 8. That’s it. Stop the puck and we are off to the post season.

    I think the Smith bet is terrifying but goaltending is voodoo and Smith really struggled with the new changes to the chest protectors. He, apparently, found a jerry-rigged solution early in the new year and, perhaps not surprisingly, his numbers improved.

    Smith’s previous three seasons of work had him at .916, .914 and .916. From the All-Star Game on last season he was .912. I don’t like that he’s 37 either but he plays with a chip on his shoulder and that’s not the worst demeanor for this team heading into next season. Also, I think there’s a better than even chance he will snap on January 29th and decapitate Tkachuck. There is real team-bonding potential here as they shovel up the blood, so go Smith.

    New clothes, new player.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-L7w1K5Zo

  20. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Money was spent though – over $9M including a $1M bonus allowance for Smith – just not on anything that moved the needle. But maybe I’m wrong and the 6 July 1st signees knock it out of the park next season. I hope I am (there’s that word again).

    $9.35M spent HOPING– that Smith rebounds at 37 years of age– that Haas can make the NHL and have an impact– that Jurco can make the NHL and have an impact– that Khaira has an 11 goal season following a 3 goal campaign– that Chiasson scores 15-20 for the next 2 years when his career average is 12.5– that Granlund can score double digits in goals from the bottom 6

    Ok, that last one isn’t so much of a stretch, but that’s what we said about Rieder last summer too, remember?

    Forgive me if I’m pessimistic that the $9M is well spent.

    Say what you will about Smith he did have a nice second half and he was the best Flame in the playoffs.

  21. blainer says:

    ArmchairGM: Money was spent though – over $9M including a $1M bonus allowance for Smith – just not on anything that moved the needle. But maybe I’m wrong and the 6 July 1st signees knock it out of the park next season. I hope I am (there’s that word again).

    $9.35M spent HOPING– that Smith rebounds at 37 years of age– that Haas can make the NHL and have an impact– that Jurco can make the NHL and have an impact– that Khaira has an 11 goal season following a 3 goal campaign– that Chiasson scores 15-20 for the next 2 years when his career average is 12.5– that Granlund can score double digits in goals from the bottom 6

    Ok, that last one isn’t so much of a stretch, but that’s what we said about Rieder last summer too, remember?

    Forgive me if I’m pessimistic that the $9M is well spent.

    Yup it’s very hard not to be pessimistic especially when you put it that way!!

    Thinking JP is coming back and will help is also foolish IMO.

    We are in a similar situation again this year that we are hoping. IMO it will always come down to Goaltending. If Kosk and Smith have good years than anything is possible.

    I wonder how motivated these two will be. I actually like Smith so what do I know?

    I also have a gut feeling that Tippet might actually surprise us too..

    But…. don’t ask me to place a bet on the Oilers making the playoff’s with this team. Again .. short of a goaltending miracle and an outstanding PK coupled with good health throughout the lineup I think we are in the lottery again next year.

    I would not trade any picks for the 2020 draft.

  22. Munny says:

    Admiral Ackbar,

    He could have signed Nyquist or Connolly to more dollars and more term than they got to get them to choose here. He could’ve continued to pursue Mrazek after trying to trade for him at the draft, despite the price on 1B goalies going up.

    He could’ve done any number of things to make the situation worse, and handcuff himself further in an attempt to “move the needle”.

    But just one look at GF and GA last year would tell Holland that top 6 scoring was nowhere near as big an issue as getting the goals against down. He needed to make some bets to stop the bleeding in the bottom 6. He’s been making those bets.

    But for some reason there’s a cadre of commenters that wanted him to add scoring at the cost of that depth.

  23. Munny says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Thank you, and also agree with your take. The team needs to desperately fix the GA.

  24. who says:

    ArmchairGM: Money was spent though – over $9M including a $1M bonus allowance for Smith – just not on anything that moved the needle. But maybe I’m wrong and the 6 July 1st signees knock it out of the park next season. I hope I am (there’s that word again).

    $9.35M spent HOPING– that Smith rebounds at 37 years of age– that Haas can make the NHL and have an impact– that Jurco can make the NHL and have an impact– that Khaira has an 11 goal season following a 3 goal campaign– that Chiasson scores 15-20 for the next 2 years when his career average is 12.5– that Granlund can score double digits in goals from the bottom 6

    Ok, that last one isn’t so much of a stretch, but that’s what we said about Rieder last summer too, remember?

    Forgive me if I’m pessimistic that the $9M is well spent.

    The one thing you need to realize is that most of the money spent can be buried in the minors if the signings don’t work out. There really are only 2 signings that could negatively affect the cap. Smith and Chiasson A one year deal and a two year deal. Very low risk but also very little upside
    The Sekera buyout still bugs me. I would have traded Benning.
    If Holland wants to add a legit scoring winger he’s going to have to spend a significant asset. I doubt he’s willing to do that.
    Klefbom and JP for Ehlers and Sandberg’? Which team says no?

  25. Ari says:

    ArmchairGM,

    You’re taking a lot of fire, but I agree, it truly is more of the same.

    For me, the Sekera buyout stings the most because it affects them for the next four years. Id rather have Sekera than Smith, Jurco and Granlund. They’re just as interchangeable as any other of the UFA’s still out there. Even Chiasson makes me shrug.

    But I’ll still follow them. I can’t help myself.

  26. gogliano says:

    Doug McLachlan: This.

    We were -42 in goal differential.No team in the West got in with a negative goal differential.The “worst” team was Dallas who were +8.

    Our sv% was a distressing .898 and was obviously not good enough.I would love for us to get a top 6 winger but unless he can score 50 from the Reider slot in the line-up it is not how we get out of this mess.

    Simply, as if it will be simple, improving our atrocious sv% from sub-.900 to .915 flips our goal differential (all other things being equal) to a plus 8.That’s it.Stop the puck and we are off to the post season.

    I think the Smith bet is terrifying but goaltending is voodoo and Smith really struggled with the new changes to the chest protectors.He, apparently, found a jerry-rigged solution early in the new year and, perhaps not surprisingly, his numbers improved.

    Smith’s previous three seasons of work had him at .916, .914 and .916.From the All-Star Game on last season he was .912.I don’t like that he’s 37 either but he plays with a chip on his shoulder and that’s not the worst demeanor for this team heading into next season.Also, I think there’s a better than even chance he will snap on January 29th and decapitate Tkachuck.There is real team-bonding potential here as they shovel up the blood, so go Smith.

    New clothes, new player.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-L7w1K5Zo

    I’ve been less than enthusiastic with the new regime but the Smith bet looks fine to me. Short contract for a goalie with quite a bit of success save for the first few months of last season. Age is an issue, sure, but his numbers have been better than Talbot for some time.

  27. Darth Tu says:

    gogliano: I’ve been less than enthusiastic with the new regime but the Smith bet looks fine to me.Short contract for a goalie with quite a bit of success save for the first few months of last season.Age is an issue, sure, but his numbers have been better than Talbot for some time.

    Agreed – I’d rather have Smith for a year than Talbot at this point. If Smith plays enough to receive all the bonus money then either Koskinen is injured, or we’ve bought him out as he’s definitely not playing at the NHL level, and we’ve made the playoffs. I’m happy enough with that, seems like a reasonable bet.

    Chiasson – personally I’d like to have seen him sign for less, but the cap hit probably is about right for market value.

    Sekera, I can’t get behind this buyout. The fact that he went to Dallas on the very first day of free agency is a bit of a tell in my mind too. If there was a major fear over his injury past he’d still be floating in free agency for a bit.

    Still, I can’t hang Holland out to dry yet, we’ll see what he does with the cap space. When is Nurse due a new contract? We need more money for that next year or the year after don’t we?

  28. PinkSocks says:

    Stauffer mentioned that the coaching staff asked for Chiarelli NOT to trade Strome last season. He did it anyways. The gift of PC really knows no bounds.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not sure what forum members were expecting up to now given the situation Holland was presented with (no cap and very little disposable cap), the number of areas that require(d) attention and what Holland has been saying for two months.

    Holland laid out his plan very clearly: will always try and make moves that help now and in the future but won’t sacrifice any future for the now and, in connection therewith, he is targeting a goalie with experience carrying the load and depth/skilled depth for the bottom 6. He specifically stated he wasn’t going to add to the defence and not once did he ever state he was going to add an established top 6 guy.

    He’s done exactly what he said – he took a small risk to open up some cap space to give himself some flexibility and make some small moves that, in aggregate, should help the team this coming year. There will be some more smallish moves to come with the biggest move at all potentially the 3C.

    This along with the forum general consensus that bad money is spent on July 1 and it was key not to lock in term to non-core players should leave most, while, not brimming with excitement, but understanding of the process.

    It has proven to be too expensive to find material cap space and, thus, incremental improvements this year while more material improvements will be made in future years. It won’t be too long before the Oilers are able to take advantage of cap-issues on other teams. Its not our turn yet.

    This season is not over nor will it be any time soon. At the end of the day, playoff chances will come down to health and, most importantly, goaltending. I’m not enthused by Smith, he was far from my first choice, however, he isn’t far removed from very good seasons, many in a row and, at the end of the day, he has a proven ability to get hot for good stretches. The one thing the incumbent goalie has also shown is the ability to have a heater at the NHL level. No certainty and risk at the tender position but they could support each other and generally provide the level of tending we need, in aggregate, as a tandem. I for one am certainly going to hope so until/unless they prove otherwise.

  30. Doug McLachlan says:

    Darth Tu: Agreed – I’d rather have Smith for a year than Talbot at this point.If Smith plays enough to receive all the bonus money then either Koskinen is injured, or we’ve bought him out as he’s definitely not playing at the NHL level, and we’ve made the playoffs. I’m happy enough with that, seems like a reasonable bet.

    A question that I haven’t had answered is what if Koskinen decides he wants out of his contract to go back to Europe? Likely leaves money on the table but mutual agreement to terminate contracts does seem to happen to the odd European player.

  31. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players is exactly what Holland did not do yesterday and is something that is often done by managers on July 1.

    Kudos should be given

    So that’s where we are? Giving kudos to the manager for not pulling out a gun and shooting his foot off? ‘Great job Ken for not doing anything dumb!’

  32. Darth Tu says:

    Doug McLachlan: A question that I haven’t had answered is what if Koskinen decides he wants out of his contract to go back to Europe?Likely leaves money on the table but mutual agreement to terminate contracts does seem to happen to the odd European player.

    Good point – I haven’t really considered this either. If he shits the bed next year (continues to have the wonky glove) and Smith is the number 1, I could see him thinking about leaving. I’m not sure how an exit would work other than buyout, but it has happened in the past.

  33. Material Elvis says:

    Doug McLachlan: A question that I haven’t had answered is what if Koskinen decides he wants out of his contract to go back to Europe?Likely leaves money on the table but mutual agreement to terminate contracts does seem to happen to the odd European player.

    If he wants his contract terminated, the Oilers should put up his statue (next to the Boyle Center, though).

  34. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM: If you consider Johnsson and Kapanen to be similar players to Nygard and Haas, I’ve got an oceanfront property in Arizona you might be interested in.

    Does it come with a bridge?

  35. Darth Tu says:

    Material Elvis: Does it come with a bridge?

    It comes with a NMC. You have to leave the building as is – no moving it on a flatbed!

  36. PinkSocks says:

    Material Elvis: So that’s where we are?Giving kudos to the manager for not pulling out a gun and shooting his foot off?‘Great job Ken for not doing anything dumb!’

    After PC, can we really be anywhere else?

  37. Material Elvis says:

    pts2pndr: His hole will need to be filled next year. Short term gain long term pain.

    Sounds like he’s going to need a lot of lubricant.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Money was spent though – over $9M including a $1M bonus allowance for Smith – just not on anything that moved the needle. But maybe I’m wrong and the 6 July 1st signees knock it out of the park next season. I hope I am (there’s that word again).

    $9.35M spent HOPING– that Smith rebounds at 37 years of age– that Haas can make the NHL and have an impact– that Jurco can make the NHL and have an impact– that Khaira has an 11 goal season following a 3 goal campaign– that Chiasson scores 15-20 for the next 2 years when his career average is 12.5– that Granlund can score double digits in goals from the bottom 6

    Ok, that last one isn’t so much of a stretch, but that’s what we said about Rieder last summer too, remember?

    Forgive me if I’m pessimistic that the $9M is well spent.

    – Smith wasn’t my choice but he did rebound a bit during the second half last year and was lights out in the playoff. Not a horrible bet and only one-year of risk. Spend more on Mrazek and there is even less to spend elsewhere

    – Hass is on an ELC and very well could be in the AHL if he doesn’t win a spot – fully buryable to create competition and help in the AHL if he doesn’t win – no risk

    – Jurco – I guess he’s my Pirri – small bets like these are important for cap issue teams – again, fully buryable is he doesn’t win a spot – no risk

    – Khaira – that contract is fantastic – shocked JJ gave us two years at that hit. Very good chance to be a value contract. Injuries and failing to gain traction because of them were his issues last year to my eye. When he was playing, he was often playing hurt. His shooting percentage won’t match two seasons ago be he is a legit middle 6 guy and adding a healthy Khaira will help this team – size with speed and aggression with some skill. One of the best transporters of the puck through the neutral zone on the team.

    – Granlund – if nothing else, helping on the PK and reducing Drai’s minutes thereon is material. He almost scored 20 with the Sundins recently and could find chemistry in the top 6 (but penciled in for the bottom 6).

    Nope, they wont’ necessarily move the needle but if the bottom six can saw off minutes with McDavid off the ice allowing McDavid/Drai to play less minutes, that’s huge. If they can help improve the PK, that’s huge.

  39. Material Elvis says:

    GBandQ:
    our man Pirri didn’t shake loose. Gusev is probably too much $$$. What about NIchushkin?

    ArmchairGM: And look how much better Detroit is because of it! Oh, wait…

    Meanwhile, Detroit is in a similar cap situation to Edmonton anyhow, due to Holland giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players. I’m not sure what your point is anymore.

    Wait for the ‘yeah, but look at Holland’s track record”. Just make sure to ignore the pre salary cap success and his *lucky* generational draft picks (Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg).

    His recent record is more indicative of what we are getting in Edmonton.

  40. Material Elvis says:

    PinkSocks: After PC, can we really be anywhere else?

    I once argued with Wilde that Chiarelli was *at least* mediocre. I was so wrong.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Given my continued and persistent inability to quote random posts, I am responding to the following post from Doug McLachlan:

    A question that I haven’t had answered is what if Koskinen decides he wants out of his contract to go back to Europe?Likely leaves money on the table but mutual agreement to terminate contracts does seem to happen to the odd European player.

    ______________________________________

    If both the player and the team agree to terminate then it can be done.

    I can’t imagine for a single second Koskinen doing that.

  42. Alpine says:

    I hope we get Zucker somehow. Fenton supposedly asked for Boeser in return from VAN but only wanted Dvorak from ARZ, per Friedman. What assets can we package up that meet the relative value threshold of someone like Dvorak?

    Fenton is an odd duck and has a very weird idea of trade value. Seems to think Zuccarello can get them to the playoffs. I think Zucker is the play, as Fenton is probably the most likely GM right now that can be ripped off. Friedman said we’re in for him a couple days back and he’s yet to have been traded. Hmmm.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Given my continued and persistent inability to quote random posts, I am responding to the following post from Material Elvis:

    So that’s where we are?Giving kudos to the manager for not pulling out a gun and shooting his foot off?‘Great job Ken for not doing anything dumb!’

    ___________________

    On July 1, yes, that is often deserving of praise.

    In any event, Armchair used Holland doing just that in Detroit as an example of how Holland will be hurting this team and I thought it made sense to point out that, in fact, he did the exact opposite.

  44. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: So that’s where we are?Giving kudos to the manager for not pulling out a gun and shooting his foot off?‘Great job Ken for not doing anything dumb!’

    What would you have done trade nurse only free’s up 3 mil Trade kelfbom Larsson only free’s up 4 mil Trade RNH free’s up 6 mil and for some reason the return for Nuge wouldn’t be close to your expectations judging by the response of a two year 2.2 contract for a 23 a year goal scorer that is healthy not to old a leader by all accounts and wants to be here.

  45. Reja says:

    PinkSocks:
    Stauffer mentioned that the coaching staff asked for Chiarelli NOT to trade Strome last season.He did it anyways.The gift of PC really knows no bounds.

    Wow that’s one for the old boys club

  46. godot10 says:

    PinkSocks:
    Stauffer mentioned that the coaching staff asked for Chiarelli NOT to trade Strome last season.He did it anyways.The gift of PC really knows no bounds.

    So why did the coaching staff not ask him to not trade Hall?

  47. buck yoakam says:

    Reja,

    absolutely !!!!

  48. Buddy says:

    godot10: So why did the coaching staff not ask him to not trade Hall?

    The coaching staff didn’t, that’s why they had to go.

    But the chairman and the vice chair did, that’s why they had to stay.

  49. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Giving too much money and too much term to older, declining players is exactly what Holland did not do yesterday and is something that is often done by managers on July 1.

    Kudos should be given

    I tell my kids: You don’t get kudos for doing what you are supposed to do. You get it for above and beyond.

  50. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I pointed out that your take wasn’t based on facts. You respond by saying “you sound angry” – and now you want to lecture me on being respectful? That’s a laugh!

    You definitely sound angry today.

  51. BlacqueJacque says:

    PinkSocks:
    Stauffer mentioned that the coaching staff asked for Chiarelli NOT to trade Strome last season.He did it anyways.The gift of PC really knows no bounds.

    Do you know roughly in which segment he said that?

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey OP. Sometimes I have to hit the quote button two or three times before it works.

  53. Professor Q says:

    godot10: So why did the coaching staff not ask him to not trade Hall?

    Because he’d have done it anyway.

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m absolutely floored by the negative narrative on Holland today. I’ll be as pissed as anyone else if he doesn’t manage to acquire a top six forward for the start of the season. But geez, there’s a long road ahead of us here.

    I was very meh on the Holland hiring and I still am. However, he didn’t sewer the team long term by signing some awful, aging free agent to a contract that needs to be bought out in two years.

    Also, Connolly’s agent was on Stauffer again today. He said the Oilers were very much in the running to get the player. The Panthers were the only team to offer four years though. And here’s the important part, the agent and player decided to accept that offer rather than circle back and ask other teams if they were willing to offer more term.

    Now Chia probably would have offered six years to start the negotiations, like Rutherford did for Tanev. Old Dutch, however, offered a more reasonable three years. I’m very much happy with that part.

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Money was spent though – over $9M including a $1M bonus allowance for Smith – just not on anything that moved the needle. But maybe I’m wrong and the 6 July 1st signees knock it out of the park next season. I hope I am (there’s that word again).

    $9.35M spent HOPING– that Smith rebounds at 37 years of age– that Haas can make the NHL and have an impact– that Jurco can make the NHL and have an impact– that Khaira has an 11 goal season following a 3 goal campaign– that Chiasson scores 15-20 for the next 2 years when his career average is 12.5– that Granlund can score double digits in goals from the bottom 6

    Ok, that last one isn’t so much of a stretch, but that’s what we said about Rieder last summer too, remember?

    Forgive me if I’m pessimistic that the $9M is well spent.

    I’m confused about what you expected to happen July 1. What did you want to happen? The only thing he could have done yesterday that he can’t do anytime this summer is sign expensive free agents. I get that you don’t like the marginal free agent signings, but that had to happen. The bottom six was wretched last year too. They need to be replaced. The team can possibly manage one top six forward under our cap constraints. Nothing that happened yesterday changes that.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965,

    He is the perfect Gm for the next two years. Patience and rebuild through the draft and short term deals we can sell at the deadline
    Otherwise I have a feeling we will be in a lot of discussions but nothing more than that

  57. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Thank you for relating this info.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Responding to Jimmy saying:

    Hey OP. Sometimes I have to hit the quote button two or three times before it works.

    ____________

    Thanks but doesn’t sound like the same issue. The “quote button” works fine, quotes the post as usual, I can type my response but, when I go to post it, error messages. It seems to be certain posters, which happens to change at any given time but right now it seems to be every time….

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: and not once did he ever state he was going to add an established top 6 guy.

    I’d have to go back and look but I’m 99% sure he talked about getting a 20-goal scorer. And despite his heater last year, I don’t believe Chiasson is that player.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: So why did the coaching staff not ask him to not trade Hall?

    Some did

  61. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers demonize the last guy out the door, this has been going on forever. In Chiarelli’s case, it’s unnecessary but it still goes on. Toilet plugged? Thanks, Chiarelli.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    An aspect to consider about what Holland did is the type of players he signed.

    Chiasson was well liked and plays the system, and while not a personal on ice favourite, he is not without a talent the Oilers lack and that’s a forward that can shoot.

    The others are cheap and have the ability to challenge for a job, can skate thank Gord, and this is the key point, can be sent down if they can’t win a job without a headache like JP.

    He says he’ll go for more, but not doing anything if what’s there is crap is good.

    We know he’s working at it. So stand Pat this this time doesn’t necessarily mean uncreative or disinterested as it once did.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Given my continued and persistent inability to quote random posts, I am responding to the following post from Material Elvis:

    So that’s where we are?Giving kudos to the manager for not pulling out a gun and shooting his foot off?‘Great job Ken for not doing anything dumb!’

    ___________________

    On July 1, yes, that is often deserving of praise.

    In any event, Armchair used Holland doing just that in Detroit as an example of how Holland will be hurting this team and I thought it made sense to point out that, in fact, he did the exact opposite.

    I didn’t specifically mention Holland signing deals on July 1st, I was talking about his overall record. Most of his overpayment (both term and AAV) in Detroit went to players already on the roster, similar to Chiarelli with Russell.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    blainer: Really sad to hear you got stuck with an oceanfront property in Arizona.. what were you thinking?..lol

    I do agree though that these Euro’s are not likely to pan out but I will at least give Holland the benefit of the doubt. This will certainly be a test on what kind of an eye for talent he has.

    The man walked into a mess and is trying to work with the shitty hand he was dealt without making said shitty hand even worse.

    By the looks of things Haas comes with a rep ..albeit from Europe.. with a sound two way game that his coach depends on from accounts I have read. His skating looks pretty good to me as does his shot and he is now entering his prime years..

    I for one will reserve judgement until I see them play.. while I’m also not overly optimistic it does provide some competition..

    We wait…

    I fully expect the majority of these signings to end in utter failure. But they aren’t likely worse than the garbage patrolling the bottom six right now and it adds some depth and competition. It’s just so meh.

  65. Glovjuice says:

    Alpine:
    Why sign Chiasson for 2 mil if you’re “keeping the powder dry”. I’ve been saying this for months. That’s an extra ~1.5 mil available if you find this year’s Chiasson aka whatever overlooked bottom six guy is staring down a PTO. Jurco for instance.

    Holland has to get some sort of good forward this summer. We didn’t hire him just to sit on his hands. He talks about having to get to know the roster. He had two months to do that. Learning the roster and learning every other roster in the league is his goddamned job. As of this point, he’s committing to the worst winger group in the NHL. The bar should be raised beyond just being better than the worst GM of the last decade.

    Get a top six forward or at least a third liner who can moonlight as one. Chiasson and Kassian are not that type of player. Chiasson moonlighted as an even strength anchor on our top two lines who got half his points playing on PP1. At no point was he top six or even top nine quality when he wasn’t on the luckiest streak of his career.

    I agree. I’m happy with yesterday except for the Chaison singing – effectively the Sekera savings used on a slow as molasses winger who was on a heater. This was as unnecessary as the stunningly terrible Strome for Spooner trade – this trade haunts this roster to the extreme.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny:
    Admiral Ackbar,

    He could have signed Nyquist or Connolly to more dollars and more term than they got to get them to choose here. He could’ve continued to pursue Mrazek after trying to trade for him at the draft, despite the price on 1B goalies going up.

    He could’ve done any number of things to make the situation worse, and handcuff himself further in an attempt to “move the needle”.

    But just one look at GF and GA last year would tell Holland that top 6 scoring was nowhere near as big an issue as getting the goals against down.He needed to make some bets to stop the bleeding in the bottom 6.He’s been making those bets.

    But for some reason there’s a cadre of commenters that wanted him to add scoring at the cost of that depth.

    While some posters have been overly critical of Holland IMO, I think you’re letting him off the hook. A good GM can improve the bottom six and add a top six forward. That’s what he gets paid to do. And I fully expect him to add one by the start of the season. If not, I’ll be pissed too.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Holland is going to build the roster from within
    You may need to go get some snacks and spend some time with the family for the next few years.

  68. rickithebear says:

    I know a RW who avg last 2 years.
    56gm 7evg just short of #2 RW evg Scoring
    2 years ago he scored at #1.5 RW rate 10 evg in 65Gm

    He has never really been given a steady first/second line oportunity.

    I here he wants out of Edmonton.

    Uh!
    Er!
    Never Mind!

    Can you imagine at the same age he had a better evg/gm rate tha Matt tkachuk and thevteam still played him on 3rd & 4th line.

    Were was the 1st/2nd line/#1 pp unit love that tkachuk got.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Hollands hire is bad news for JPs desires and good thing for us.
    He can sit on things for a long time
    He negotiates like an Ent with other GMs

  70. digger50 says:

    Wow, just catching up on the thread and it reflects some of my thoughts on the drive home, though no anger.

    Going to a garage sale and getting a whole bunch of “stuff” just deceived you into thinking you’re getting lots of value for your dollars.

    The best way to improve the bottom six is to bring in players for the top six and bump everybody down.

    Clogging up the roster with these fourth liners is not helping though. Granlund, Haas, Jurco, ……. we’ll be done with them by Christmas. Chaisson, Khaira will be batting over thier heads.

    I’m not mad at Holland, he’s still got some moves to make.

    I’m happy that folks are upset today. I see a lot of reason to be upset when you have two of the best players in the league and can’t build a team. “Just wait till next year” they said forever.

    If I could I’d erase Broberg and Russel and add Ehlers. Then sign one 25 goal scorer in free agency. Don’t bleed money in throw away deals. Those two top six players push everyone down and suddenly we have success.

    Milan and JP still to be moved. Still some teams need to shed players. Still some hope.

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Holland is going to build the roster from within
    You may need to go get some snacks and spend some time with the family for the next few years.

    The only disappointment I see is he hasn’t pulled of a miracle robbery of another GM. But it’s not like he can just get on the horn and do that. He can only get done what others will do. Not doing stupid things is ok with me especially after years of watching stupid.

    I also believe others are very wary of the Oilers. There are still people around that endured the 80s Oilers and know that a few key pieces and McDavid is going to be a nightmare. Seriously. The key players are among the best in the league and signed well, long term, getting better cap wise every year.

    The Leafs are probably closest up front but have issues on D the Oilers don’t. And worse cap issues for creating depth. I remain unconvinced Dubas despite all the action is actually making his team a playoff contender. Lots of reg season points but I still don’t see the kind of 200 ft game in game out types that it takes. Kadri for Barrie fills a hole but creates another, we’ll see if it’s a net gain. Signing Tavares was a mistake imo.

  72. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965: While some posters have been overly critical of Holland IMO, I think you’re letting him off the hook. A good GM can improve the bottom six and add a top six forward. That’s what he gets paid to do. And I fully expect him to add one by the start of the season. If not, I’ll be pissed too.

    We don’t have $5-12 million in space to allocate for that spot for multiple years.

    Do people criticize Sakic for planning ahead and not acquiring said player (in fact, subtracting a puck-moving D and 2nd line C), instead saving his insane amount of cap space for the next few years to sign RFAs and home-grown UFAs?

    No.

    Then why criticize Holland for doing the same, just while being handcuffed significantly more? As Holland has said, we’ll be more dangerous in a year, then even more dangerous in 2 years, and then even more in 3 years.

    Bad contracts falling off, keeping powder dry, maybe even signing Hall…well, our young up-and-coming RFAs, that is.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50: The best way to improve the bottom six is to bring in players for the top six and bump everybody down.

    Clogging up the roster with these fourth liners is not helping though. Granlund, Haas, Jurco, ……. we’ll be done with them by Christmas. Chaisson, Khaira will be batting over thier heads.

    Perfect! I was about to write that first paragraph, although your iteration is more poignant than mine would have been.

  74. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    PinkSocks: I think competition is a good and healthy element of a bottom 6F.I don’t think Brodziak makes it through to opening night. Marody doesn’t need to make it as a 4C, he can also be on the team as 3R/4R.Benson will be battling for 2L moreso than 3L or 4L.

    Taking out Brodziak, and assuming Benson is 2L, you have 9 guys battling for 6 spots, (8 including 13&14)

    Bets:

    Granlund – Khaira – Marody
    Nygard – Haas – Gambardella
    Lucic/Cave

    Jurco waived

    I like the competition idea too. Did it scare away one of Gagner, Kassian, Chiasson?
    😜

  75. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The only disappointment I see is he hasn’t pulled of a miracle robbery of another GM. But it’s not like he can just get on the horn and do that. He can only get done what others will do. Not doing stupid things is ok with me especially after years of watching stupid.

    I also believe others are very wary of the Oilers. There are still people around that endured the 80s Oilers and know that a few key pieces and McDavid is going to be a nightmare. Seriously. The key players are among the best in the league and signed well, long term, getting better cap wise every year.

    The Leafs are probably closest up front but have issues on D the Oilers don’t. And worse cap issues for creating depth. I remain unconvinced Dubas despite all the action is actually making his team a playoff contender. Lots of reg season points but I still don’t see the kind of 200 ft game in game out types that it takes. Kadri for Barrie fills a hole but creates another, we’ll see if it’s a net gain. Signing Tavares was a mistake imo.

    Some great points

    It has been good to hear through various sources that Holland and Gretz were working the phones hard. They were in on just about everybody of interest yet chose to pull up. I respect at least they were in the fight and exploring all options.

    I wish we seen more from Bakersfield at the end of last season, that would help us now in determining who we really need and avoid muddying the waters with so many try outs.

    Will Jurco be better than Rattie, Yamamoto, Benson, Maridy? I have no plans dea but I suspect he’ll get first dibs and we’ll be off to a slow start with the tryouts.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d have to go back and look but I’m 99% sure he talked about getting a 20-goal scorer. And despite his heater last year, I don’t believe Chiasson is that player.

    Are you talking about this verbal yesterday near the end of the day? IIRC, he only really spoke to the “20-goal scorer” or top 6 forward when the media would press him on not getting a top 6 guy and he would keep looking for the 12 plus goal scorer that could score – or words to that effect.

  77. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Professor Q: We don’t have $5-12 million in space to allocate for that spot for multiple years.

    Do people criticize Sakic for planning ahead and not acquiring said player (in fact, subtracting a puck-moving D and 2nd line C), instead saving his insane amount of cap space for the next few years to sign RFAs and home-grown UFAs?

    No.

    Then why criticize Holland for doing the same, just while being handcuffed significantly more?

    Good points. Holland is also signing different forward types. Other than Chiasson who was in house they are taller lighter players. Speedier with more reach. Chiarelli had heavy or ‘thick ‘ as his preference as he stated coming in. They ended up being slow or shorter than average for the NHL.

    Holland is pursuing a different type. We’ll see if it’s an improvement.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t specifically mention Holland signing deals on July 1st, I was talking about his overall record. Most of his overpayment (both term and AAV) in Detroit went to players already on the roster, similar to Chiarelli with Russell.

    Sure but, either way, the point (at least as I took it) was in connection with Holland doing the same things and it not working in Detroit – the example of what he did that didn’t work in Detroit is something that he hasn’t done as an Oiler – at least to this point.

  79. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM: Perfect! I was about to write that first paragraph, although your iteration is more poignant than mine would have been.

    It seems that we are hearing so much of we ant do this and we can’t do that. There is a lot of truth in those arguments but why do we have to be so accepting of the mediocre plan …….again and again.

    Slow rebuild, this time it will be different. Why? Why will it be different this time?

    We have the best player. We have the best player. What are we waiting for? Bring in some talent. We have just as good a chance as every other team.

    It’s frustrating for sure.

    But the GM is not finished. We’ll need some luck but a couple more players still to come.

  80. Scungilli Slushy says:

    digger50: Some great points

    It has been good to hear through various sources that Holland and Gretz were working the phones hard. They were in on just about everybody of interest yet chose to pull up. I respect at least they were in the fight and exploring all options.

    I wish we seen more from Bakersfield at the end of last season, that would help us now in determiningwho we really need and avoid muddying the waters with so many try outs.

    Will Jurco be better than Rattie, Yamamoto, Benson, Maridy? I have no plans dea but I suspect he’ll get first dibs and we’ll be off to a slow start with the tryouts.

    Thanks

    I think a lot of these signings are meant to go to Bakersfield. They could be short on forwards if 2-3 of the best make the team. D I’d deep , if Gam Benson and Marody all make it (not saying they will) it’s crickets up front.

    Holland has added a lot of depth that may only see Cali but they need it.

  81. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Good points. Holland is also signing different forward types. Other than Chiasson who was in house they are taller lighter players. Speedier with more reach. Chiarelli had heavy or ‘thick ‘ as his preference as he stated coming in. They ended up being slow or shorter than average for the NHL.

    Holland is pursuing a different type. We’ll see if it’s an improvement.

    Balance is good. If that’s where he is going

  82. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    On a positive vibe: Bakersfield may be able to push for the Calder this year.

  83. DBO says:

    So what is more pressing of a need.
    Scoring winger or 3C?

    I would seriously consider offer sheeting Kerfoot. Leafs opened cap space but could they match 5 years at $3.75m even $4 mill? 40 pt two way 3C who has speed, great advanced metrics and is young enough to run with McDavid for years.

    Leafs still need to sign Marner and Ceci. How high could they go and still fill their roster?

  84. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Wish Holland would have passed on the Chiasson contract.
    This team has about 5 possible bottom 6 RW. Chiasson is not a top 6RW. This money should have been kept to help get a top 6 RW.

  85. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    If you read my earlier post, it was Job #2. So I’m not letting him off the hook. What I didn’t want was for the GM to overpay in dollars, term, or both to force a top 6 winger into the line-up, which is what signing one yesterday would have required.

  86. gogliano says:

    I can’t speak for everyone. But if this year is about getting depth that won’t really take us anywhere, why add salary cap disadvantages in 2021 and 2022?

    That’s my concern. It’s a big picture issue about mortgaging tomorrow for convenience today. Sekera may not be worth his contract but if you’re subtracting cap room from 2021-22 and 2022-23, when both Draisatl & McDavid will have stellar value, you better be adding future value. Because no GM is turning this team into a contender this year.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Responding to digger:

    It seems that we are hearing so much of we ant do this and we can’t do that. There is a lot of truth in those arguments but why do we have to be so accepting of the mediocre plan …….again and again.

    Slow rebuild, this time it will be different. Why? Why will it be different this time?

    We have the best player. We have the best player.What are we waiting for? Bring in some talent. We have just as good a chance as every other team.

    It’s frustrating for sure.

    But the GM is not finished. We’ll need some luck but a couple more players still to come.

    __________________

    I don’t think anyone is hoping, wanting or in favor of a “slow rebuild” but, in order to make the material higher end moves, there needs to be currency of assets and/or cap room and right now this org doesn’t have those. This lines up with cap space never being deemed more valuable and harder to acquire.

    Without making things worse or taking high risk of making things worse, this issue alleviates more and more over the next year or two and it won’t take long to go from middling to contender – see Colorado.

  88. v4ance says:

    I’m in the middle in terms of rating Holland’s perfprmance yesterday. Like ArmchairGM, I don’t think Holland materially improved the team so that’s very Chiarelli-esque.

    On the other hand, he didn’t give out overpriced $3 mil+ contracts with lots of years, NMC/NTC clauses or anything stupid so that’s what an average qualified GM should do which is a middling bar to overcome. But considering what we saw of Chiarelli’s performance, it’s head and shoulders better than we’ve seen in 4 years.

    Lowetide:
    The Oilers demonize the last guy out the door, this has been going on forever. In Chiarelli’s case, it’s unnecessary but it still goes on. Toilet plugged? Thanks, Chiarelli.

    True story: I went to an East Indian all u can eat restaurant in NE Calgary yesterday and went to relieve myself before dinner. Standing at the urinial, I gazed to my left into the toilet. There was a solid brown streak running from the bottom of the bowl, up to the seat, across the back of the seat and halfway up on the water tank. I lost my appetite after that since I couldn’t get that image out of my head all night.

    Thanks Chiarelli!

  89. rickithebear says:

    When looking at productive evg forward pairs last yr
    (888 min) Draisaitl 24 evg 1.62 evg/60 – Mcdavid 24 evg 1.62 evg/60 – xxx
    (193 min) xxx – RNH 6 evg 1.87 evg/60 – Kassian 2 evg .62 evg/60
    (305 min) Chaisson 4 evg .79 evg/60 – Mcdavid 8 evg 1.56 evg/60 xxx
    (360.5) Draisaitl 8 evg 1.33 evg/60. – xxx – Kassian 8 evg 1.33 evg/60
    (436 min) xxx – Mcdavid 10 evg 1.33 evg/60 – Kassian 8 evg 1.10 evg/60
    (219 min) Lucic 4 evg 1.10 evg/60 – RNH 4 evg 1.10 evg/60 – xxx
    (245) xxx- RNH 4 evg .98 evg/60 – Puljujarvi evg 3 evg .74 evg/60
    (315 min) Chaisson 4 evg .76 evg/60 – RNH 3 evg .57 evg/60 -xxx

    Sub 100 min pairs
    Lucic 1.36 evg/60 – xxx – Gagner 2.72 evg/60

    From this we need to run:
    Chaisson – Mcdavid – Draisaitl for 860 min (58% of EVTOI)
    It is the only line we’re Draisaitl & Mcdavid maintain a 1.60 evg/60 and 23 goals

    Chaisson runs at .80 11.5 11-12 evg.
    57-58 evg means the unit runs as a 1.33 evg /60 avg.

    I do not give a heck about Points per.
    High goals per win games.
    goals are the most efficient pocession measure of a line.
    It is stupid to put 3 low goal scorers with high pts per.
    2-4 passes to get the puck into the net has a high failure rate at even.

    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian for 620 min were the unit should run at 1.33 each as well. 14 evg each.

    Lucic – RNH – Gagner numbers suggest the unit should operate around 1.21 evg/60 each

    Chaisson .76 evg/60 – RNH 1.22 evg/60 – Kassian .62 evg/60 .87/60 as a unit

    Would like to see how nygard, granlund, jurco perform with RNH.

    Wonder what other center Khaira, Granlund can have success with Lucic & Gagner.

    Ppgoals last year with league rank and ppg/60 for each player. 6.99 league median.
    PP unit #1 2.5+ PPTOI
    #6 Draisaitl 16 ppg, 8.12 ppg/60
    #32 Mcdavid 9 ppg, 8.37 ppg/60
    #42 RNH 8 ppg, 7.97 ppg/60
    #42 Chaisson 8 ppg, 7.89 ppg/60
    This should be our #1 PPunit.

    PP Unit #2 1.50+ PPTOI
    Draisaitl & Mcdavid getting 4.0+ PPTOI for both between 2 units.
    Last 2-3 full gm reg seasons
    Gagner 5 ppg, 8.22 ppg/60
    Lucic 6 ppg, 7.35 ppg/60

    That way we are running 3 – 7.97+ ppg/60 fwds on each unit.
    For 4.00+ min.

    Our only top 100 pk fwd avg over last 3 yrs.
    Khaira #45 5.92 pkga/60

    This PK unit needs help.
    J. Archibald #12 PK fwd last 3 yrs
    4.67 pkga/60
    Sheahan #80 pk fwd last 3 yrs
    6.53 pkga/60s

    There are no opinion based correct answers they are all guesses not based on actual production facts.

    Like every year I give you real fwd pair and averaged unit expected production.
    Goals based the most efficient pocession measure out there.

    Present these numbers going on 10 years.

    Chaisson – Mcdavid – Draisaitl
    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Top 2 units should get at least 75% of 1480 TOI
    Draisaitl – XXX – XXX other 25%
    XXX – Mcdavid -XXX

    Lucic – RNH – Gagner generatesvat Top evg/60 unit rate. Hope for high % of TOI
    Chaisson – RNH – Kassian
    XXX – RNH – XXX : Jurco, Nygard,

    Lucic – XXX – Gagner : Haas, Brodziak, Granlund, Khaira

    XXX – Brodziak – XXX

    These are facts based units.

  90. rickithebear says:

    chaisson avg 10 evg is a #1.5 evg Scoring winger. On of the 100 best.
    Was #42 PPG fwd last year.
    For 2.1 million.

    Yet you do not like him cause his EVP/60 tell you his 3-4 passes to get a goal is not very good.
    Big deal.
    Direct penetration with pocession yields the most efficient evg/60 rates.
    You want 2 top directbpenetration players & 1 top passer.
    One of the fwds on the unit requires top end speed for transition entry.

    I will look at other UFA with top 42 PPG and 10+ evg a season.
    Let’s see what they got?

  91. Bag of Pucks says:

    Full disclosure, watching OP flail away all day with a buggy quote feature was not entirely unpleasant 😂

  92. razor says:

    Looking closer at the Jets newly constructed roster, it really looks like they are ripe for a trade to steal one of their coveted forwards. Right now Kulikov is their 3rd best D behind Morrissey and Buff. They can’t seriously enter next season with that roster, can they? Package up Russell and a pick or Puljujarvi for Ehlers like OP is stating and get er done Kenny!

  93. JimmyV1965 says:

    Professor Q: We don’t have $5-12 million in space to allocate for that spot for multiple years.

    Do people criticize Sakic for planning ahead and not acquiring said player (in fact, subtracting a puck-moving D and 2nd line C), instead saving his insane amount of cap space for the next few years to sign RFAs and home-grown UFAs?

    No.

    Then why criticize Holland for doing the same, just while being handcuffed significantly more? As Holland has said, we’ll be more dangerous in a year, then even more dangerous in 2 years, and then even more in 3 years.

    Bad contracts falling off, keeping powder dry, maybe even signing Hall…well, our young up-and-coming RFAs, that is.

    The two top priorities were adding a goalie and getting a top six winger. While I have no issues with adding to the bottom six, it doesn’t move the needle. I’m not passing judgement yet, but he needs to get it done. There are still teams out there that need to move good players. He needs to get one. If he can’t find that cap space, that’s on Holland. He freed up nearly $3 mill. We’ve been keeping the powder dry for a very long time.

  94. Rebillled says:

    Mike Smith looked pretty good in the playoffs this year.

    First game was a shutout.
    .923 in game two (39 shots) OT loss
    50 saves in game 3
    .942 in game 4 (49 save OT loss)
    and can’t stop MacKinnon in game 5

    He allowed 2 or less goals in 11 of his last 15 starts right before the playoffs.

    Good luck Koski. I hope you have it from the jump.

  95. YKOil says:

    So, for me, I will withhold judgement until the end of the off-season NEXT year. I will comment on individual moves or even a series of them but on Holland I will wait.

    I honestly don’t mind what he has done so far. Fully approve of the Khaira, Granlund, Haas, Jurco, and Nygard signings. That leaves Smith and Chiasson? Too much bonus money for one and an extra $500k for the other – small beans there.

    Do wish we had been in on Panik (Washington has rocked it starting at the trade deadline imo), Carr, Pirri and… Hathaway(?) but there have been few UFA’s I really cared about getting otherwise – at least not for the term and price paid. Some of the trades were doable in regards to assets, term and salary so I wonder about those. Vesey, Shaw, Burakovsky, and – especially – Haula comprise the universe of trades to look at – not sure Vegas was going to trade Haula in-conference however and Vesey is a rental and a lefty so maybe the value wasn’t there.

    So yeah, if sunshine was drying my ass it would be Smith and Chiasson out for Kinkaid, Haula and Panik. We would be done but that would have been nice.

    ——

    As much as the Oilers do have a better farm team and better prospect depth than a few years ago that isn’t saying much – with Chia’s depletion of assets program in play, and with Yamamoto and JP struggling, the ONLY position we have any real depth in at all, prospect or pro, is LHD.

    This team is still a year or two away from having the type of depth, prospect and pro, that allows us to trade a Brannstrom type to jump the team forward in a substantial way. The Cap will appear when Lucic is gone I guess. Jeebus, that’s still four years from now.

    ——

    So, from where I sit, that leaves the rest of this off-season, the trade deadline and next off-season. With health I do think we have a solid shot at making the play-offs. I hope one of Granlund, Jurco, Haas or Nygard pops, that would be cool, but they are all UFA’s so… not cool.

    Guess I can hope that Benson, Persson and Jones get some games in and show well. Yamamoto and JP need to rebound.

    Ultimately, with luck we have a good season AS A TEAM – not just the same 4 to 7 guys – but can unload Russell, along with one of Smith or Gagner, at the deadline. Pile up those mid-to-late round picks and take another run at it in 2020-2021 with more, proven, depth, all new prospects and more Cap space.

    Just NOT moving backwards is a step ahead for the Oilers right now. Sad as that is to say.

    The list of ‘doable’ moves this off-season is pretty light when you look at it. So far, so okay.

    Patience. All I have.

  96. Cassandra says:

    So now Ricki doesn’t like assists either?

    Where does he think goals come from?

    Like everything else he has this backwards. Guys who score without getting assists are riding the coat tails of other players, and doing it with unsustainable shooting percentages.

    Mark Fistric and Alex Chiasson. NHL all-stars.

    How one person could be wrong about so many things, and so arrogant and condescending doing it, is quite something.

  97. who says:

    razor:
    Looking closer at the Jets newly constructed roster, it really looks like they are ripe for a trade to steal one of their coveted forwards. Right now Kulikov is their 3rd best D behind Morrissey and Buff. They can’t seriously enter next season with that roster, can they? Package up Russell and a pick or Puljujarvifor Ehlers like OP is stating and get er done Kenny!

    It’ll take Klefbom, Nurse or Larsson. Russell will never get it done.

  98. Kmart99 says:

    Regardless of this season.

    The team’s D core looks pretty bright just two years down the road.

    Klefbom L
    Nurse L
    Bouchard R
    Samorukov L
    Broberg L
    C.Jones L
    E.Bear R
    Benning R
    Persson R

    That’s a good list right there, and it should represent a great list in 1-2 seasons.

  99. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Alex Chiasson $2.15M times two (Matt Cane $3.125M times three)

    In other words not an overpay. Actually under in both dollars and term.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    Alex Chiasson $2.15M times two (Matt Cane $3.125M times three)

    In other words not an overpay. Actually under in both dollars and term.

    Which is great I;think Holland is better at negotiating than we’ve seen in ages.

    I would prefer to have a player with a better future outlook. AC might be a guy that battles through a career or may done already. It’s always about wheels.

    Always has been if not a gladiator, who aren’t in the arena anymore.

  101. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rebillled:
    Mike Smith looked pretty good in the playoffs this year.

    First game was a shutout.
    .923 in game two (39 shots) OT loss
    50 saves in game 3
    .942 in game 4 (49 save OT loss)
    and can’t stop MacKinnon in game 5

    He allowed 2 or less goals in 11 of his last 15 starts right before the playoffs.

    Good luck Koski. I hope you have it from the jump.

    Smith is great other than 37 and injuries are regular

  102. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide Said:

    “The Oilers demonize the last guy out the door, this has been going on forever. In Chiarelli’s case, it’s unnecessary but it still goes on. Toilet plugged? Thanks, Chiarelli.”

    That actually made me laugh out loud… thanks!

    One caveat… I can agree with this statement if we clarify that Boys on the Bus don’t apply… I don’t remember hearing anything negative from the media about MacT since his departure as an example.

  103. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Responding to digger:

    It seems that we are hearing so much of we ant do this and we can’t do that. There is a lot of truth in those arguments but why do we have to be so accepting of the mediocre plan …….again and again.

    Slow rebuild, this time it will be different. Why? Why will it be different this time?

    We have the best player. We have the best player.What are we waiting for? Bring in some talent. We have just as good a chance as every other team.

    It’s frustrating for sure.

    But the GM is not finished. We’ll need some luck but a couple more players still to come.

    __________________

    I don’t think anyone is hoping, wanting or in favor of a “slow rebuild” but, in order to make the material higher end moves, there needs to be currency of assets and/or cap room and right now this org doesn’t have those.This lines up with cap space never being deemed more valuable and harder to acquire.

    Without making things worse or taking high risk of making things worse, this issue alleviates more and more over the next year or two and it won’t take long to go from middling to contender– see Colorado.

    This strategy is sound. I understand it and then comment from a different perspective.

    You see each time we see this strategy we also see poor execution. No big contracts is good. More players that don’t help is bad. It muddies the waters and bleeds cap 1M at a time.

    And then the execution fails again and we repeat.

    This time we have two top players in the league. We are talking about waiting again. I’m not on board. Get better one player at a time. And then another. Waiting for the cavalry and we lose a good player we have now. Add to the core.

    Even bottom six guys, they should be keepers. No reason Khaira can’t be a long term keeper once he’s slotted correctly and contributing. All this throwing spaghetti at the wall is unproductive.

  104. Rebillled says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Very true.

    I do think he’ll get more starts unless he is (not saying it).

  105. HT Joe says:

    Kmart99: Regardless of this season.

    The team’s D core looks pretty bright just two years down the road.

    Klefbom L
    Nurse L
    Bouchard R
    Samorukov L
    Broberg L
    C.Jones L
    E.Bear R
    Benning R
    Persson R

    That’s a good list right there, and it should represent a great list in 1-2 seasons.

    The left looks fine but the right side… Bouchard (who hasn’t played a season yet) as our #1 RHD? Ethan Bear as #2 RHD? That’s not going to get it done.

    Broberg can play right side, yes? That would make it seem more positive, not 1-2 seasons down the road, but maybe 3-4.

  106. rickithebear says:

    Evg average over 3 yrs.
    Ppg total for this year.

    8 ppg forwards this year
    Chiasson (2.1M) 10 evg, 8 ppg, 8.372 g/M
    Dadanov (4 M) 18 evg, 8 ppg, 6.500g/M
    Couturier (4.333M) 17 evg, 8 ppg, 5.770g/M
    Atkinson (5.875M) 17 evg, 8 ppg, 4.255g/M
    RNH (6.0M) 13 evg, 8 ppg, 3.500g/M
    Skinner (9.0M) 22.5 evg, 8 ppg, 3.389g/M
    Henrique (5.825M) 10.5 evg, 8 ppg, 3.176g/M
    Benn (9.5M) 17evg, 8 ppg, 2.632g/M
    Kuznetsov (7.8M) 12evg, 8 ppg, 2.564g/M
    Eichel (10.0M) 16 evg, 8 ppg, 2.40g/M

  107. YKOil says:

    Signing Larsson, to a decent deal, would be key to shoring up that right side. Bouchard, with a couple of years under his belt, backed up by Larsson would be legit.

    Health, cash, term are the issues.

  108. HT Joe says:

    digger50: And then the execution fails again and we repeat.

    This time we have two top players in the league. We are talking about waiting again. I’m not on board. Get better one player at a time. And then another. Waiting for the cavalry and we lose a good player we have now. Add to the core.

    I have loved your comments in this thread… there has to be urgency, otherwise…
    – wait 1 year – what happens with Nurse’s contract? lose Kassian (defacto #1 RW)
    – wait 2 years – lose #2C (RNH) and #1 RHD (Larsson)
    – wait 4 years – lose Klefbom
    – wait 6 years – lose Draisatl
    – wait 7 years – lose McDavid

    The Oilers aren’t getting new good players fast enough to offset the impending loss of talent in the coming years.

    This is what drives me crazy about the Sekera buyout… when I think of actual players who are really good at their positions (and not just slotted in based on no other options), I think of the following:
    – McDavid, Draisatl, RNH, Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, and Sekera (pre-injury)

    That’s 7 players on a full team… those are the guys who have wowed me during this latest iteration of rebuilds. We just bought out one… yes, one who has been injured for 2 years now, but who also looked better and better during his recent return from injury. If Sekera continues to look more like his old self during the 2019-2020 season, playing for the Stars *spits*, that’s a big damn disappointment for the first real move of the new GM.

  109. HT Joe says:

    YKOil: Signing Larsson, to a decent deal, would be key to shoring up that right side. Bouchard, with a couple of years under his belt, backed up by Larsson would be legit.

    Health, cash, term are the issues.

    The fourth issue is that if the team places well outside of the playoffs for both of the next 2 seasons, not even an Oilers overpay will keep Larsson (or RNH) in Edmonton.

  110. Professor Q says:

    HT Joe,

    Mac T is still helping the Oilers out right now. :p

  111. HT Joe says:

    Professor Q:
    HT Joe,

    Mac T is still helping the Oilers out right now. :p

    Haha, I hadn’t considered until now the potential for MacT to become the next GM after Holland has had enough. Lordy… rebuild v5.0?

  112. Dee Dee says:

    The new GM hasn’t even seen his team play, much less play the system implemented by his new coach.

    Plug the holes and get your bases covered. Don’t get sucked into long term contracts that could bite you in the ass a few years down the road.

    Find players that possess the attributes and qualities you are looking for, which isn’t really represented by the size of the contracts that are being signed.

    Chiasson seems to be loathed by many but to my eye he’s a sniper on the power play and one of the reasons it was successful last year.

    The other new signings look like they can skate. It’s progress because past management would have just dropped complete rookies into key spots with no backup and let them sink or swim

    Now the rookies have some speed bumps they have to pass in order to make the line up and if they in fact do this, the cheap contracts can be bumped down to the AHL without killing the cap.

    There are 3 more months to try to trade for upgrades and tinker. Today’s line up is not the opening night roster for sure.

    Depth is being built up in the AHL, Yamamoto is the first player in forever that wasn’t just thrown to the Wolves and its resetting expectations for all the rest of the new players.

    New GM, new Coach, Old Boys Club out of the way.

    Tippett always gives a bump in the standings to his teams and will instill a forechecking discipline that will give results but maybe he can find a way for Lucic to buy in and get some results.

    It’s a new day, and I for one choose to at least stay neutral and will save my bitching until they actually play some games.

  113. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965: The two top priorities were adding a goalie and getting a top six winger. While I have no issues with adding to the bottom six, it doesn’t move the needle. I’m not passing judgement yet, but he needs to get it done. There are still teams out there that need to move good players. He needs to get one. If he can’t find that cap space, that’s on Holland. He freed up nearly $3 mill. We’ve been keeping the powder dry for a very long time.

    If he can’t find the cap space, that’s on him? No, that’s on Chiarelli and his gifts (as well as Holland’s foresight).

    Sorry, but no. That’s not how this works. He could easily find the cap space by trading a few first round picks and top prospects but that’s not a sound strategy. Maybe he didn’t have enough space to sign a “Top 6 Forward” right off the bat, reasonably, but did in fact need to sign other players and did so reasonably (in my opinion). He also says he isn’t done.

    He has spoken about obviously looking at every FA out there, but the FAs looked at to be the Top 6 forwards ended up getting more $ and more term than the League had seemingly planned for originally, and those were more than Holland was willing to pay. I think that might be the smart move.

    Maybe LT is right and there’s a Lucic trade occurring. Holland did say that he’s been talking to almost every team about a possible JP trade, but there isn’t anything reasonable out there at the moment. Which means he’s likely been talking about other scenarios, too. I guess we’ll see what he comes up with. I hope it doesn’t leave too big of a long-term negative impact, is all.

  114. HT Joe says:

    Dee Dee:
    It’s a new day, and I for one choose to at least stay neutral and will save my bitching until they actually play some games.

    During the 2015 draft, I felt sick when Chia traded away the 16th and 33rd, but I figured Chia must know what he’s doing… Chia had won a Stanley Cup as a GM, so he must have known a thing or two about winning in management, if there ever was a concern. However, at this point, if there’s a move made that doesn’t seem obviously good, it should be very fair for extreme scrutiny, concern, and complaints.

    If Holland is going to mortgage the future by buying out a talented blueliner, he needs to get it right by using the cap space to bring in immediate help.

  115. Munny says:

    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer · 2h2 hours ago

    Still expect the Oilers to add one or two more forwards…
    But, could totally see Tyler Benson being the best bet to make the team out of training camp out of the Oilers prospects.
    Smart, elite passer, worked relentlessly to improve skating since getting healthy

  116. RedNed says:

    I’ve come late to the party and have yet to read all the comments. My take on the roster lineup kindly posted by our host is that I think I see what Holland is doing, going for the vanilla detroit model. All these low/mid range veterans on relatively short contracts, just waiting to be bumped off by blooded new bloods or burn off with the efluxion of time. Looking forward to the next couple years as it all takes shape.

    Winning games in the meantime, playoffs, things that will keep us tactically interested, that’s where a bit of magic will have to happen. But the elements are all there ,except for one more scoring winger, of course!

  117. London Jon says:

    PinkSocks:
    Stauffer mentioned that the coaching staff asked for Chiarelli NOT to trade Strome last season.He did it anyways.The gift of PC really knows no bounds.

    The roster would look a lot better with Strome on it than Gagner. I’d say one second line shooting winger away from being decent

  118. ArmchairGM says:

    v4ance: On the other hand, he didn’t give out overpriced $3 mil+ contracts with lots of years, NMC/NTC clauses or anything stupid so that’s what an average qualified GM should do which is a middling bar to overcome. But considering what we saw of Chiarelli’s performance, it’s head and shoulders better than we’ve seen in 4 years.

    Here’s the thing though, Chiarelli didn’t “give out a bunch of overpriced $3 mil+ contracts with lots of years, NMC/NTC clauses or anything stupid” last summer either – and the summer before it was only Kris Russell. Which is why this summer gives me that Deja Vu feeling.

    March 1 – September 1, 2017

    https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/oilers/all/all/1-15/1-14500000/03012017-09012017

    So he got the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts done, for which he is now universally applauded. Russell was a year or two too long and probably $1M too much, although he was coming off a $3.1M contract so it was probably naive of us to think he wouldn’t get a raise. But really it was the clauses that everyone despises. Kassian’s contract looks a lot like Chiasson’s – a 4th line guy who had a heater and got more money and term than he was worth.

    Other than that the whole time was spent finding peripheral players who Chiarelli “hoped” could solidify the bottom 6, or were old and at the tail end of a bottom 6 career and it was “hoped” that they could perform as they have several years prior. Guys like Auvitu, Jokinen, Brian Ferlin, Grayson Downing, Ty Rattie, Pakarinen and Gambardella.

    March 1 – September 1, 2018

    https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/oilers/all/all/1-15/1-14500000/03012018-09012018

    Strome’s deal was reasonable for a legit 3C, no NMC / NTC and only 2 years term. No issues there. Yet his was the only $3M+ deal signed in the 6 months of spring and summer last year.

    Rieder’s deal looks a LOT like the Granlund contract: a 12-goal scorer who could PK and was supposed to solidify the bottom 6. In fact Rieder’s goal scoring history is much more impressive than Granlunds, at the time of signing he was coming off 13, 14, 16 and 12 goal campaigns. It was “hoped” that he could even possibly hold down a 2LW spot next to Draisaitl – the same “hope” has been mentioned here regarding Granlund in fact.

    The Benning signing was a fantastic team-friendly deal, the Cagguila and Brodziak deals much less so. The latter 2 were supposed to solidify the bottom 6 (where have I heard this before?). But none were over $2M or 2 years, so they don’t qualify as “bad” contracts by your criteria.

    The Koskinen bet looks a bit like the Smith bet if you squint a little, although Smith’s is likely to be costlier if Koskinen continues to be inconsistent.

    Otherwise, again a bunch of players who weren’t legit NHLers but we “hoped” that they could hold down bottom 6 jobs: Jerabek, Currie, Gravel, Rattie.

    Holland’s premise here, and Chiarelli’s before, is false: get a whole bunch of guys out of lesser leagues to compete for bottom 6 jobs. It fails when the winners of said competition are 6 guys who really belong in the AHL. A poster above said it best: hire top 6 players where you can and those guys push the likes of Kassian, Khaira, Lucic and Chiasson down into the bottom 6 – this is how you improve your bottom 6.

    So in reality this summer looks a lot like last summer, and aside from the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts it looks like the summer of 2017 as well. Too many “bets” and “hopes” and not enough actual NHL players.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    who: It’ll take Klefbom,Nurse or Larsson. Russell will never get it done.

    Moving Klefbom or Nurse might have been an option if Sekera was still around…

  120. ArmchairGM says:

    HT Joe: The left looks fine but the right side… Bouchard (who hasn’t played a season yet) as our #1 RHD?Ethan Bear as #2 RHD?That’s not going to get it done.

    Broberg can play right side, yes?That would make it seem more positive, not 1-2 seasons down the road, but maybe 3-4.

    Agreed. Nurse wasn’t an effective top-4 option until Draft +5. It’s possible Broberg will arrive sooner but banking on him being an impact NHLer in Draft+2 seems optimistic to me. Unless he knocks it out of the park he’ll see at least 1 more season in Sweden then at least 1 in AHL, and only then will he see 3rd pairing minutes in the NHL. I wouldn’t pencil him into the top-4 until Draft+4 realistically.

    It’s the same trajectory planned for Bouchard pretty much: Draft+1 in junior, Draft+2 in AHL, Draft+3 in a sheltered NHL role unless he proves he can handle more, sooner.

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    RedNed: All these low/mid range veterans on relatively short contracts

    Where are “all these” players? Chiasson and Granlund are low-range veterans, but otherwise all Holland has done is brought in players he “hopes” can make the NHL and “hopes” can play above replacement level. Nygard, Haas, Jurco – not exactly an awe-inspiring bunch.

    I sure hope Holland has an ace up his sleeve, but it’s increasingly looking like he doesn’t. We wait.

  122. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: The roster would look a lot better with Strome on it than Gagner. I’d say one second line shooting winger away from being decent

    We could have had Connolly at a decent rate, but Holland didn’t follow it up.

  123. who says:

    ArmchairGM: Moving Klefbom or Nurse might have been an option if Sekera was still around…

    Yep

  124. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    London Jon: The roster would look a lot better with Strome on it than Gagner. I’d say one second line shooting winger away from being decent

    Totally

  125. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto

    https://theathletic.com/1055785/2019/07/03/lowetide-ken-hollands-roster-moves-clear-the-way-for-oilers-top-prospects-tyler-benson-and-kailer-yamamoto/

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Responding to the following post from Jimmy:

    The two top priorities were adding a goalie and getting a top six winger. While I have no issues with adding to the bottom six, it doesn’t move the needle. I’m not passing judgement yet, but he needs to get it done. There are still teams out there that need to move good players. He needs to get one. If he can’t find that cap space, that’s on Holland. He freed up nearly $3 mill. We’ve been keeping the powder dry for a very long time.

    _______________

    Obviously you disagree with Ken but his stated top priorities were an experienced goalie and acquiring depth of skill and speed for the bottom 6. He’s never stated a priority for an established top 6 guy, probably because he knows there isn’t cap space for it via free agency (expensive plus term) and he’s likely going to have to bet on a guy like Jurco and/or Benson, etc. to help with middle/top 6 production. Its the situation but, thankfully, the situation should improve over the next few off-seasons and then things will get really fun.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Responding to the following post from digger:

    This strategy is sound. I understand it and then comment from a different perspective.

    You see each time we see this strategy we also see poor execution. No big contracts is good. More players that don’t help is bad. It muddies the waters and bleeds cap 1M at a time.

    And then the execution fails again and we repeat.

    This time we have two top players in the league. We are talking about waiting again. I’m not on board. Get better one player at a time. And then another. Waiting for the cavalry and we lose a good player we have now. Add to the core.

    Even bottom six guys, they should be keepers. No reason Khaira can’t be a long term keeper once he’s slotted correctly and contributing. All this throwing spaghetti at the wall is unproductive.

    _______________________

    Yes, of course, execution is key, however, I don’t agree that the current moves were poor execution (if that is what you were implying. The moves don’t bleed cap $1M at a time, all of them (but for Chiasson and Smith) are fully buryable with either no cap hit or nominal cap hit. If they don’t win jobs out of camp, the likes of Jurco and Hass will be helpful in the AHL and provide NHL cover in addition to the likes of Joe G., Benson, Marody, P. Russell, etc.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: We could have had Connolly at a decent rate, but Holland didn’t follow it up.

    From his agent, FLA was the only team to offer 4 years and, once they got that offer, they didn’t circle back with any other team to give them the option to match/beat.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Totally

    Yes, Strome at 3C right now would look nice.

    Cody Eakin for a 3rd and a 5th will do the trick.

    We can have the 3C AND Gagner to provide some middle six skill, smarts and experience.

  130. CallighenMan says:

    ArmchairGM: We could have had Connolly at a decent rate, but Holland didn’t follow it up.

    I don’t have the source, but yesterday I read a quote by Connolly’s agent that they got more term from Florida then Holland, but they didn’t give Holland (or anyone else for that matter) a chance to counter.

    I get you are pushing your narrative, but there are always two sides in a negotiation and things aren’t always what they seem so assuming things like “Holland didn’t follow up” is just you pumping your biased negative preconceptions.

    Arrgh! OP beat me to the punch by one minute! But hey! At least I got 6 hours of sleep! 😀

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: From his agent, FLA was the only team to offer 4 years and, once they got that offer, they didn’t circle back with any other team to give them the option to match/beat.

    CallighenMan: I don’t have the source, but yesterday I read a quote by Connolly’s agent that they got more term from Florida then Holland, but they didn’t give Holland (or anyone else for that matter) a chance to counter.

    I get you are pushing your narrative, but there are always two sides in a negotiation and things aren’t always what they seem so assuming things like “Holland didn’t follow up” is just you pumping your biased negative preconceptions.

    Arrgh! OP beat me to the punch by one minure!But hey! At least I got 6 hours of sleep!

    That’s exactly what I said: Holland didn’t follow it up. I’m involved in contract negotiations all the time and you don’t just wait for the other camp to respond, you make sure you have an open line of communication and you follow up so you know what’s going on at all times.

  132. Jaxon says:

    What would everyone think if he added Marleau at $2.2M for 1 year, and Engelland at $1.9M for 1 year? $4.1M for two older prairie boys who could help shore up the team and really jump into holes while the Bensons and Bouchards of the team mature and crack the lineup.

    Draisaitl/McDavid/Kassian
    Marleau/Nugent-Hopkins/Chiasson
    Lucic/Gagner/Granlund
    Gambardella/Khaira/Puljujarvi
    Cave/Jurco

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Engelland
    Russell/Benning
    Jones

    Koskinen
    Smith

    $1.088M remaining cap space.
    If Smith gets all his bonuses, then it would be $732k over, so not by much and it wouldn’t happen until the end of the season (yes/no?) and if he goes over it could mean a great season for Smith (or really bad season for Koskinen).

    I like adding those two veterans. Engelland has been a pretty steady rock in Vegas and he’d be better than Russell at 2RD. Marleau still has pretty good wheels and put up 37 points last season. It would be short term with no risk and still leave openings and cap space for the future.

    I used this table for the contracts:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit?usp=sharing

  133. GMB3 says:

    Woogie63:
    July 1 – Avoid long term DAMAGE

    4 UFAs signed
    3 to 1 year contracts
    $6.2M spent
    Cleared out our 3LHD who has a bad knee for needed cap space

    I think this will sound much better around November

    It wont. We will be looking at draft rankings.

  134. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    What would everyone think if he added Marleau at $2.2M for 1 year, and Engelland at $1.9M for 1 year? $4.1M for two older prairie boys who could help shore up the team and really jump into holes while the Bensons and Bouchards of the team mature and crack the lineup.

    Draisaitl/McDavid/Kassian
    Marleau/Nugent-Hopkins/Chiasson
    Lucic/Gagner/Granlund
    Gambardella/Khaira/Puljujarvi
    Cave/Jurco

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Engelland
    Russell/Benning
    Jones

    Koskinen
    Smith

    $1.088M remaining cap space.
    If Smith gets all his bonuses, then it would be $732k over, so not by much and it wouldn’t happen until the end of the season (yes/no?) and if he goes over it could mean a great season for Smith (or really bad season for Koskinen).

    I like adding those two veterans. Engelland has been a pretty steady rock in Vegas and he’d be better than Russell at 2RD. Marleau still has pretty good wheels and put up 37 points last season. It would be short term with no risk and still leave openings and cap space for the future.

    I used this table for the contracts:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit?usp=sharing

    That’s interesting. I was wondering yesterday if Marleau and Pominville could be cheap veteran “skill” targets for Holland.

  135. JimmyV1965 says:

    Professor Q: If he can’t find the cap space, that’s on him? No, that’s on Chiarelli and his gifts (as well as Holland’s foresight).

    Sorry, but no. That’s not how this works. He could easily find the cap space by trading a few first round picks and top prospects but that’s not a sound strategy. Maybe he didn’t have enough space to sign a “Top 6 Forward” right off the bat, reasonably, but did in fact need to sign other players and did so reasonably (in my opinion). He also says he isn’t done.

    He has spoken about obviously looking at every FA out there, but the FAs looked at to be the Top 6 forwards ended up getting more $ and more term than the League had seemingly planned for originally, and those were more than Holland was willing to pay. I think that might be the smart move.

    Maybe LT is right and there’s a Lucic trade occurring. Holland did say that he’s been talking to almost every team about a possible JP trade, but there isn’t anything reasonable out there at the moment. Which means he’s likely been talking about other scenarios, too. I guess we’ll see what he comes up with. I hope it doesn’t leave too big of a long-term negative impact, is all.

    He freed up cap space buying out Sekera. He chose to use a big chunk of it on Chiasson. He can still but out Gagner. He had options and he still does.

    I’ve never advocated signing expensive free agents and I never will. He needed to trade for a top six forward. He still can but the Chiasson contract doesn’t make it any easier.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: He freed up cap space buying out Sekera. He chose to use a big chunk of it on Chiasson. He can still but out Gagner. He had options and he still does.

    I’ve never advocated signing expensive free agents and I never will. He needed to trade for a top six forward. He still can but the Chiasson contract doesn’t make it any easier.

    The buyout window has closed.

    And I don’t understand your second paragraph: you are against signing a top-6 forward but you approve of trading for one? So you’re only okay with it if you have to pay assets AND cap space rather than just cap space? There are times when signing a UFA is the right move and there are times when a trade is the right move.

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