Overture, Curtains, Lights

Dave Tippett’s last NHL team, the 2016-17 Arizona Coyotes, deployed 10 rookies — five of whom played over 650 minutes that season. Of those 10 rookies, how many made the opening night lineup? Three: Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse. Chychrun and Crouse were teenagers, and Dylan Strome was, too.

Tippett can handle multiple rookies in a season, and it gives us something to talk about as we wait through summer for the hockey season. Knowing Ken Holland’s preference is too overcook (I don’t like that word) prospects in the minors, how would a strong performance by a player like Dmitri Samorukov test that position?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

CONSERVATIVE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER PROJECTION

If Holland and Tippett decide to elevate the veterans and keep the kids on the farm, opening night might look like this. NHL newcomers include some Euro influence (Nygard, Haas, Persson) some NHL free agents (Smith, Granlund, Jurco) and a drafted/developed rookie in Caleb Jones. Seven new players, but no teenagers, no entry deal bonuses and everyone should be aware of their roles and assignments.

WILD AND CRAZY OPENING NIGHT ROSTER PROJECTION

I would call this the “Chychrun” plan except that kid was good out of the box, and Samorukov may also fit in this category. Anyway, I think four rookies and Jesse Puljujarvi on the roster is about as wild and crazy as the Holland-Tippett team would go. I expect them to be more conservative, Holland wanting to start as he means to go.

BIG TRADE ROSTER

I made a massive trade with Calgary, bringing in Neal, Frolik and Stone. Lucic, Russell and Jesse Puljujarvi go the other way and maybe you’d have to sweeten it because Russell has an extra year and Lucic’s contract is more difficult than Neal’s, but for now we’ll call it even. I also signed Brassard, not thrilled with the idea but it fits with the “Holland Old Folks Home” template used in Detroit for many years. Bear over Persson because it saves $275,000 and yes it’s important.

MOST LIKELY ROSTER

Holland is trying to make a deal and I do think he’ll grab a scoring winger but it’s difficult to identify right this minute. So, I’ve assigned the job to Jurco, signed Brassard and decided the Oilers might just let this dark horse run. This is a lottery team, men. Brace yourselves.

BOB GREEN

Bob Green doesn’t need me to come to his aid, his hockey reputation was made before arriving in Edmonton. That said, I remain flummoxed by the idea Green is the chief culprit in the Griffin Reinhart trade. Here’s the deal: General managers may reach out to trusted men in the organization for input, but for crying out loud the scouting director doesn’t prepare or negotiate the trade. Green gave an endorsement to the idea of acquiring Reinhart based on his knowledge of the player. He didn’t neglect the Oilers by not flying to the east coast to see Reinhart play, he had other work to do. He no doubt spoke about Reinhart as an Oil Kings blue, that’s a helluva player.

The entire episode reminds me of Whitey Herzog’s reaction to the Jim Fregosi trade made by the Mets 50 years ago. Herzog was in charge of Mets procurement at the time, and the GM called and asked about Fregosi, a pretty good SS with power who was aging with the Angels. Herzog said he was a good player, still had something left to give. When he found out about the trade (Nolan Ryan, one of the greatest arms in the history of the game, plus a pretty good OF in Leroy Stanton and a couple of fringe pitchers), Herzog was outraged.

“I’ll never forget it,” recalled Herzog. “Bob Scheffing called and asked me to call Leroy Stanton to tell him we’d traded him to the Angels for Jim Fregosi. I thought that was the deal, not realizing we were giving them Nolan Ryan, Fransisco Estrada and Don Rose along with Stanton. I said ‘shit, I wouldn’t trade Stanton for Fregosi’. I liked Stanton! When I picked up the paper the next morning and discovered Nolan Ryan was in there too, I about threw up.” Source

Here’s a fact: If you are angry at Bob Green, believe he’s the man to blame for the Reinhart trade, you’ve lost the script. The general manager takes advice from the people around him and then makes the deal. Unless you have clear evidence, a quote I haven’t seen where Green says he stepped in, then you’ve altered real truth to fit your version of the truth. Your outrage over Bob Green doesn’t make you a better fan, it makes you a dumber person.

Lucic apparently gets his bonus today, so if something is going to happen around a trade it could occur in the coming hours. I’m a Lucic fan, so hope he lands in a good spot and will wish him well despite some tough times with the Oilers. Seems my Bruins favourites who come here are destined to struggle, although I would welcome Patrice Bergeron at any time.

Names I’ve heard include James Neal, Sam Bennett, Jason Zucker, Tyler Toffoli. The Bennett rumor had Jesse Puljujarvi attached to it. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back, baby!! At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Guests include John Horn from ESPN, WTA, TSN, we’ll chat about an instant classic at Wimbledon and what the future holds for Serena and Roger. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about the Eskimos and the Oilers, and we’ll have a CFL guest to talk about the Alouettes weird season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio! OH. I’m also on the roundtable at 9 with Dustin Nielson, Lt Eric and Matt Iwanyk. It’s an all-star cast!

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214 Responses to "Overture, Curtains, Lights"

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  1. Racki says:

    Are you sure Lucic’s bonus is paid today? About a week or so ago, Jason Gregor said that it was already paid, July 1st, according to someone that had seen the contract. I know it wouldn’t be the first time an Oilers staff (assuming that’s who it was) got something like that wrong though.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    What chance does Raphael Lavoie have(if any)of cracking the top line out of training camp?

  3. BONE207 says:

    Call me wild & crazy but that’s the line up I like minus Bouchard. Try Lagesson, Persson or Jones. Let’s see what we have. We’re a lottery team, men.

  4. Rube Foster says:

    LT,

    I do not see much offensive production from your projected line ups when Connor McDavid is not on the ice. That’s a whole lot of Same As It Ever Was.

    Is Lucic merely a place holder on the second line in all of your projections or do you genuinely beleive Tippet is going to play Milan in the top six?

  5. godot10 says:

    I really like Bennett. I think he is pretty close to an ideal winger for McDavid. But I can’t see Calgary trading him.

    Neal and Frolik for Lucic and Puljujarvi makes sense for both teams. Adding Stone for Russell to it makes sense also.

  6. DBO says:

    Can we Unicorn this lineup at all? Can we do the Crosby treatment for McDavid and have younger or mid range layers who he lifts up, and give complementary wingers to Nuge and Drai?

    Nygard-McDavid-Kassian (McDavid floats all boats)
    Benson-Draisatl-Chiasson (soft parade, allowing Drai to feast on 2nd/3rd pair dmen)
    Lucic-Nuge-Granlund (tough minutes line)
    Khaira-Haas/Cave-Gagner (a decent 4th line)

    or

    Nygard-McDavid-Neal
    Benson-Draisatl-Kassian
    Granlund-Nuge-Chiasson
    Khaira-Haas/Cave-Gagner

    Nygard can keep up with McDavid and Kassian skates well enough and gives him room.
    The lineup makes sense if Lucic gets his hands back or you flip him for Neal (scenario 2)
    Benson is a great passer, and that is what Draisatl needs, and Chiasson becomes their solid two way player.
    The 4th line has size, defensive conscience and enough skill and speed to compete.

    This team needs a RW more then anything. Puljujarvi emerging would have solved it, and Yamamoto has the skill, just needs to put it together. If you could flip Lucic for Neal it does fit our needs and changes a whole ton. LT your big crazy deal is not so crazy since Stone and Frolik are UFA’s next year. Really seems like they are opening up cap room for 2020/21 season to make some moves (come home Taylor!!!)

  7. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I would be fine to watch a bit of wild and crazy…
    Except swap Lucic and Khaira AND Persson and Bouchard (Jones in / Persson 7th D)
    And I guess Haas has gone back to Europe 😉

  8. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10:
    I really like Bennett.I think he is pretty close to an ideal winger for McDavid. But I can’t see Calgary trading him.

    Neal and Frolik for Lucic and Puljujarvi makes sense for both teams.Adding Stone for Russell to it makes sense also.

    IF IF IF there is some truth to the rumour about Lucic and JP not loving each other, this trade would be a giant FU to JP and his agent 😉

  9. dustrock says:

    Racki:
    Are you sure Lucic’s bonus is paid today? About a week or so ago, Jason Gregor said that it was already paid, July 1st, according to someone that had seen the contract. I know it wouldn’t be the first time an Oilers staff (assuming that’s who it was) got something like that wrong though.

    We actually don’t have any official confirmation for a deadline on Lucic’s bonus each year.

    All the digging I did a while back was vague and talked about “July”, but very specifically not July 1st.

    It’s very possible the contract simply stipulates “by no later than July 31st” in every year.

  10. doritogrande says:

    Travis Yost of confirming again today that TSN knows nothing about the Oilers beyond McDavid. https://www.tsn.ca/defensive-issues-could-cost-oilers-the-playoffs-in-2020-1.1337541

    Matt Benning is our #2 D guys, and Bouchard will be #2 by season end.

  11. DBO says:

    Any interest in Gusev from Vegas? If he comes in at $3.75 mill per year for 2 years, can we fit that in our budget? Cause if he comes as advertised, that solves our skilled 2nd line winger issue. Puljujarvi and a pick or prospect gets it done as they don’t have cap space to add anything above a million per year.

  12. Rube Foster says:

    DBO:
    Can we Unicorn this lineup at all?Can we do the Crosby treatment for McDavid and have younger or mid range layers who he lifts up, and give complementary wingers to Nuge and Drai?

    If we’re going all Unicorn Bat Shit Crazy this morning… 🙂

    I do agree with the “Crosby Treatment” approach to building the line-up. The longer the Holland Slow Play carries on this summer, my hope is growing that Holland’s solution to the Oilers top six winger dilemma is to run Puljujarvi with McDavid for the first quarter of the season. If you’re proposing we take a flyer on someone like Nygard for Connor’s wing, why wouldn’t we at least give someone who has a history of success playing with Connor that shot?

    That would leave Nuge and Dai to center lines and two and three as DBO suggests or pair Nuge and Leon on what could be a formidable second line.

    Question for those who are more familiar with Holland’s time in Detroit. Does Holland have any history of reclamation or reconciliation with a player or players who found themselves in a similar situation to Puljujarvi?

  13. ArmchairGM says:

    Lucic …

    Names I’ve heard include James Neal, Sam Bennett, Jason Zucker, Tyler Toffoli.

    Yes to any of the above, but especially Zucker and Toffoli.

  14. texmex says:

    This is huge if true. Toronto Sports network is reporting…..

    https://www.tsn.ca/toronto-maple-leafs-f-william-nylander-changing-number-to-88-1.1337558

  15. Rube Foster says:

    DBO:
    Any interest in Gusev from Vegas? If he comes in at $3.75 mill per year for 2 years, can we fit that in our budget? Cause if he comes as advertised, that solves our skilled 2nd line winger issue. Puljujarvi and a pick or prospect gets it done as they don’t have cap space to add anything above a million per year.

    I know he lacks a history of success in the NHL, but I believe Gusev could be a game changer for the Oilers lineup. Gusev just might Holland’s silver bullet.

    I am a huge proponent of giving Jesse a shot with Connor, but I make the trade you’re proposing every day of the week. I suspect Vegas would want more.

  16. Soup Fascist says:

    Hot take 1: Bob Green and the Old Boys had much LESS impact on Chiarelli making the disastrous Reinhart trade than the majority of folks believe.

    Hot take 2: Bob Green and the Old Boys had much MORE impact on Chiarelli making the disastrous Hall trade than the majority of folks believe.

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    DBO:
    Any interest in Gusev from Vegas? If he comes in at $3.75 mill per year for 2 years, can we fit that in our budget? Cause if he comes as advertised, that solves our skilled 2nd line winger issue. Puljujarvi and a pick or prospect gets it done as they don’t have cap space to add anything above a million per year.

    Yes, we have room in the budget. If Manning + Brodziak get buried and replaced with Jones + Gambardella, Gusev at $3.75M leaves $913,001 in cap space.

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    As it stands now there will be at least one rookie breaking camp with the team on defence and potentially two depending on if they are going to bury Manning or just leave him as the pressbox guy.

    They could potentially have Jones/Persson kind of rotate (maybe even along with Russell/Benning depending on performance)

    Veteran Locks:

    Klef
    Larsson
    Nurse
    Russell
    Bennett

    Potential Rookies:

    Jones
    Persson
    Lagesson

    Bouchard
    Bear

    Potential 7-8 d-man full pressbox guy:

    Manning

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Everything is kind of up in the air on the forward group as there are simply so many players competing for open positions.

    Benson and Marody do have shots at both top 6 and middle 6 jobs.

    Joe G., Currie and Russell have shots at bottom 6 jobs and are competing with the likes of Nygard, Haas, Jurco. Many thing that Nygard (and even Haas) have shots at the top 6.

    Is way too fluid with the forwards to even predict who might make the team from the AHL crew.

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    doritogrande:
    Travis Yost of confirming again today that TSN knows nothing about the Oilers beyond McDavid. https://www.tsn.ca/defensive-issues-could-cost-oilers-the-playoffs-in-2020-1.1337541

    Matt Benning is our #2 D guys, and Bouchard will be #2 by season end.

    I like Benning a lot, but this is a great reminder that GAR and WAR don’t take QoC or QoT into account.

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Benson and Marody do have shots at both top 6 and middle 6 jobs.

    You think both players have a shot at the 1st line?

  22. leadfarmer says:

    Just because you were not the culprit does not make you innocent

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    You know what? I don’t mind the “most likely” roster all that much.

    Bringing in a guy like Brassard, even as much as he struggled last year, adds some skill and scoring potential to the middle six and makes things look a little better.

    Signing Puljujarvi and inserting him somewhere in the top 9 has a similar effect.

    I know, Lucic on the 2nd line makes most cringe, however he did have a 68% goal share in 211 5 on 5 minutes with Nuge last year – maybe there is something there.

    My fantasy/goal/expectation is for Lucic to bounce-back to Eriksson type numbers 12G/30P – those are predicated in the bottom 6 – if he does play with Nuge on the 2nd line, he NEEDS to be at least on that pace, likely surpass that.

    Come on MIlan!

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t imagine any scenario where Lucic is traded this summer. Its been shown how high the cost would be to the Oilers, simply egregious and a non-starter.

    The man must play some decent hockey until a trade can be consummated.

    In my opinion.

  25. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, we have room in the budget. If Manning + Brodziak get buried and replaced with Jones + Gambardella, Gusev at $3.75M leaves $913,001 in cap space.

    I would be willing to pay Gusev,
    A chance to get a top 6 winger in around $4-4.25M.
    The roster as is is just awful & the Oilers are desperate.
    There is cap space for a 3C or s top 6 winger.
    Oilers need both, question is; which is more important?

  26. Truth says:

    ArmchairGM: Um, what? You think both players have a shot at the 1st line?

    This is interesting. On a successful team there is no chance they should have a shot at top 6 minutes in their first NHL season. The reason this may be possible is that the top 6 wings currently have names like Kassian, Chiasson, and Lucic.

    Lucic is done and should be replaced by practically anybody for top 6 mins.

    Would Chiasson or Kassian be point-per-game players in the AHL if they were ever sent down there? They weren’t prior to be called up to the NHL. Could easily make the case that both Benson and Marody are better now than both Kassian and Chiasson when they began their NHL careers. It’s entirely possible they’re better now.

    Bottom line is the Oilers are so bad that it’s entirely possibly that both Benson and Marody are better than a few current top 6 wingers. The entire rest of the pacific league should be putting up statues of Chiarelli outside their rinks. He guaranteed them wins for years vs. the Oilers.

  27. oilman says:

    Can we start calling that Oilers top line “$20 million and change”?

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    doritogrande:
    Travis Yost of confirming again today that TSN knows nothing about the Oilers beyond McDavid. https://www.tsn.ca/defensive-issues-could-cost-oilers-the-playoffs-in-2020-1.1337541

    Matt Benning is our #2 D guys, and Bouchard will be #2 by season end.

    While our defence is no great shakes, they are better than most outsiders realize. I think the biggest problem last year was the forwards. They didn’t provide enough support in the dzone.

    More importantly, they were awful in the ozone. Their forecheck last year was pathetic. We rarely maintained offensive zone pressure so the puck ends up in our dzone most of the game. That never ends well.

    Look at the Vegas group of dmen. It’s not very good. But the team’s incredible forechecking helps the dmen because they aren’t playing defence all game. Put the Oilers group of dmen in Vegas and the narrative would be much different.

  29. russ99 says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Chiarelli was on the job a month, and was forced to keep his predecessor on as assistant GM, and all that predecessor’s assistants and scouts. The same people that did the legwork on the draft, and assumed they were experts on former Oil Kings then used that flawed logic to push a player they didn’t even watch play in the AHL the previous year.

    Chiarelli’s name is on the deals but I’ll go to my grave believing that he listened to the scouts, and made the deals based on their judgments.

    People whine about Holland’s relative lack of action, but he didn’t fall into the same trap.

  30. russ99 says:

    Pescador,

    In a pinch, Gagner can play 3C.

  31. McNuge93 says:

    hunter1909:
    What chance does Raphael Lavoie have(if any)of cracking the top line out of training camp?

    Well it should be close to zero if Holland stay true to his ‘slow play’ history. Even if he has agreat camp I would send him back to junior. It didn’t help Yam or Pulu by pushing them to the NHL too soon. While it didn’t seem to harm Drai it probably didn’t help either. Plus, we have so many forwards competing for spots.

  32. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine any scenario where Lucic is traded this summer. Its been shown how high the cost would be to the Oilers, simply egregious and a non-starter.

    ~ Surely it’s in the DNA of every Oiler fan to be very able to imagine egregious trades. ~

  33. edmoil3 says:

    Where did you hear July 15th LT?

  34. texmex says:

    edmoil3:
    Where did you hear July 15th LT?

    Kurt Leavins stated Looch’s bonus is to be paid on the 17th.

    Jason Gregor was adamant is was paid on the 1st.

    Stauffer hinted is was anywhere from 3 weeks after July 1st. He also mentioned how the info in the “agent database of contracts” which list all player contracts is not always correct. I’m guessing he was directing this at Gregor.

    Long story short……..who knows.

    On a side note, Connor McDavid gets a cheque today for $13,000,000. Who said Monday’s suck?!?!?

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    Pescador,

    In a pinch, Gagner can play 3C.

    As can Granlund.

  36. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    So … barring a trade, which I think most of us can agree is very unlikely, Lucic is penciled in as 2LW under all other scenarios? Really? There is nobody that we might give an extended look? NHL roster, AHL roster, ECHL roster, beer league guy? Nobody? No fuckin body? If that is indeed the case, I don’t believe I will have the stomach to watch this team play this year.

  37. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    russ99,

    – Yeah the only “risk” he took so far was getting rid of Sekera

    – If Sek is no good next year that’s awesome. If he’s closer to 2016 Sek then Holland will be blamed even though he would have relied on the advice of all those who were there before

    – I have no issue with the desire for certainty as Sek really crippled the D planning for 2 years.

    – Lets hope they did due diligence and got rid of him at the right time. Because a healthy Sek was amongst the top 2 or 3 things that would have altered the team big time this year.

  38. defmn says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    So … barring a trade, which I think most of us can agree is very unlikely, Lucic is penciled in as 2LW under all other scenarios? Really? There is nobody that we might give an extended look? NHL roster, AHL roster, ECHL roster, beer league guy? Nobody? No fuckin body? If that is indeed the case, I don’t believe I will have the stomach to watch this team play this year.

    I realize this is not the popular opinion here but if I am constructing the lines with those currently available I have Benson on Draisaitl’s left wing with Kassian or Chaisson on the right. Nuge is playing with McDavid.

    Draisaitl and McDavid play together on the PP and if we need a goal late in the 3rd only.

  39. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    defmn: I realize this is not the popular opinion here but if I am constructing the lines with those currently available I have Benson on Draisaitl’s left wing with Kassian or Chaisson on the right. Nuge is playing with McDavid.

    Draisaitl and McDavid play together on the PP and if we need a goal late in the 3rd only.

    I guess we can be unpopular together.

  40. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    defmn,

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    – make it three. While it’s great to have our two best players together and achieve a lot individually this team wins cups when they are centering their own lines

    – I think putting them together has been too easy: the harder thing would is to have them work with less talented wingers and figure it out. That’s what Crosby does.

    – They are big boys now this is there team. Work with young wingers figure it out in practice get chem.

    – It’s dangerous team building if you have the two best payed playing always together and the rest they just figure it out themselves

    – This team will be much better with a CMD and a Drai scoring at 90% with wingers that score more when they play with talent but less than CMD and Drai together.

    – Hopefully this is the year Tippett doesn’t fall for the short term all star line and allows the team to have more wingers play with skill

  41. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: As can Granlund.

    Yikes…on first glance that read “As per Garfield”.

  42. Chris says:

    We kind of need Holland to go through the free agent clearance bin here and bring in one or two veterans just to give the team more of a chance. If we can add some guys like Brassard or Sheehan there would be a bit less twine and duct tape holding the roster together.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Racki:
    Are you sure Lucic’s bonus is paid today? About a week or so ago, Jason Gregor said that it was already paid, July 1st, according to someone that had seen the contract. I know it wouldn’t be the first time an Oilers staff (assuming that’s who it was) got something like that wrong though.

    In my opinion, it matters almost zero.

    There aren’t really many teams that require contracts with cap hits hire than money paid and these teams are still trying to assemble winning teams. $6M X 4 on the cap hit is just so bad from what this player has brought the last two years (replacement level and offense anchoring and transition game anchoring), its an untradeable contract without a mammoth cost that would be a non-starter for all of us.

    Come on Milan, 12G/30 points this season, then we can talk about getting you out of town.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter:
    What chance does Raphael Lavoie have(if any)of cracking the top line out of training camp?

    About 0.000213% – in my opinion.

    I can’t see any reasonable way that he’s not back in the Q next season.

    Maksimov would be the more reasonable option (given he’s older, a better 200 foot player and has certain NHL ready skills like his shot) – at the same time, he’s not even a reasonable option out of camp (and likely not at all this year).

    Develop the forward prospects just like they’ve been developing the defence prospects.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    RubeFoster:
    LT,

    I do not see much offensive production from your projected line ups when Connor McDavid is not on the ice. That’s a whole lot of Same As It Ever Was.

    Is Lucic merely a place holder on the second line in all of your projections or do you genuinely beleive Tippet is going to play Milan in the top six?

    I would say it, partially, depends on how Khaira, Benson, Nygard look but, at the same time, Nuge and Lucic had a 68% goal share in 211 5 on 5 minutes last year – that cannot be ignored.

    I’d feel more comfortable with Nuge/Lucic together if it was the third line:

    XXXX/McDavid/Kassian
    Benson/Drai/Chiasson
    Lucic/Nuge/Jurco

    I guess the XXXX would have to be Granlund, Nyagard, Khaira with current roster construction?

    If Jesse signs, with his decent success with McDavid over the years…….

  46. OilSlickster says:

    Rube Foster,

    Yes. Athanasiou

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Unfortunately there will be no Nuge at 3C at least for long. Not enough TOI for a player of his stature and talent. Holland or Tippet spoke to it a while back.

  48. GMB3 says:

    Rube Foster: I know he lacks a history of success in the NHL, but I believe Gusev could be a game changer for the Oilers lineup. Gusev just might Holland’s silver bullet.

    I am a huge proponent of giving Jesse a shot with Connor, but I make the trade you’re proposing every day of the week.I suspect Vegas would want more.

    Gusev could be an absolutely massive addition. Think about the impact Panarin had in Chicago. I don’t think he’s as talented (from some reports he isn’t a great skater, more of a pp savant), but he could absolutely pop given the chance to play with one of the big three. I would be all for it

  49. GMB3 says:

    defmn: I realize this is not the popular opinion here but if I am constructing the lines with those currently available I have Benson on Draisaitl’s left wing with Kassian or Chaisson on the right. Nuge is playing with McDavid.

    Draisaitl and McDavid play together on the PP and if we need a goal late in the 3rd only.

    I don’t hate it. I honestly think Drai needs an extended opportunity to run the show himself on his own line.

  50. alberta bound edmonton says:

    Sorry LT but I do not buy your take on Bob Green. General managers ask questions of their scouts. At some point Pete turned to Bob and asked “What do think Bob…Is Reinhart work our 1st and 2nd? If Pete didn’t ask that question then I agree, it’s on Pete. But seriously…he must have asked?

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot:
    I really like Bennett.I think he is pretty close to an ideal winger for McDavid. But I can’t see Calgary trading him.

    Neal and Frolik for Lucic and Puljujarvi makes sense for both teams.Adding Stone for Russell to it makes sense also.

    I would like to have Bennett on the Oilers as well – its too bad that he hasn’t been a PK guy.

    I’m not sure about a winger for McDavid but he could definitely fit somewhere in the top 9 going forward.

    I’m sure the flames don’t want to trade him, however, something needs to give and they will need to make some tough decisions from a position of negative-leverage. They simply don’t have the cap space to sign Tkachuk, Bennett and Ritich.

  52. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: IF IF IF there is some truth to the rumour about Lucic and JP not loving each other, this trade would be a giant FU to JP and his agent

    Is that even a rumour? I haven’t heard that one. I guess it is now..

  53. jp says:

    DBO:
    Can we Unicorn this lineup at all?Can we do the Crosby treatment for McDavid and have younger or mid range layers who he lifts up, and give complementary wingers to Nuge and Drai?

    McDavid was 31.6 GF% without Nuge and Draisaitl last season.

    McDavid doesn’t actually float ALL boats.

  54. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Is Sam Bennett just unlucky, does he have bad linemates, or is he just a huge drag on GF%?

    All this talk about Bennett+Neal for Lucic+Pulju, not sure that makes EDM any better.

    Guy takes a ton of penalties and doesn’t score better than a 3rd liner. Should be finding that quality of player in August in UFA. Patty Maroon costs money.

    He seems to help Jankowski’s numbers but otherwise meh. I’d be open to being persuaded

  55. Pescador says:

    russ99:
    Pescador,

    In a pinch, Gagner can play 3C.

    That would definitely be classified as a bad pinch

  56. Yegfoundation says:

    “He no doubt spoke about Reinhardt as an Oil Kings blue, that’s a helluva player”.

    The job of the amateur scout is not to describe a player based on CHL performance. The job of an amateur scout is to project whether skills and performance will translate to the National Hockey League. There is a difference between he was a good CHL player and I believe he will be a good NHL player.

    Bob Green’s comments to the media indicate he highly endorsed Griffen as a future top 4 NHL Dman. A very big miss.

    Bob hung his reputation on his belief in Griffen Reinhardt to be a top 4 NHL D Man. A prospect with limited offensive value and average mobility. If Bob Green isn’t smart enough to tell his GM that big D Man with no offense and limited mobility aren’t the way to build a team in the new NHL, than he should be sent out the same door as his previous General Manager.

    Sorry, Bob owns those comments and his projection of Griffen Reinhardt.

  57. GMB3 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Sam Bennett just unlucky, does he have bad linemates, or is he just a huge drag on GF%?

    All this talk about Bennett+Neal for Lucic+Pulju, not sure that makes EDM any better.

    Guy takes a ton of penalties and doesn’t score better than a 3rd liner. Should be finding that quality of player in August in UFA. Patty Maroon costs money.

    He seems to help Jankowski’s numbers but otherwise meh. I’d be open to being persuaded

    Currently travelling with no wifi and not great service.. so I can’t look at the #’s but I believe he draws more penalties than he takes. I could be wrong though

  58. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Bringing in a guy like Brassard, even as much as he struggled last year, adds some skill and scoring potential to the middle six and makes things look a little better.

    Brassard looks like a bounce back candidate for sure.

    He’d averaged 50 points a season (none less than 39) in the 5 years previous to last. And even if he doesn’t bounce back his 23 points last season would have put him in the Oilers top 6.

    It all depends on the price.

  59. LadiesloveSmid says:

    GMB3: Currently travelling with no wifi and not great service.. so I can’t look at the #’s but I believe he draws more penalties than he takes. I could be wrong though

    Only really in his rookie season.

    Last year @ 5v5 per 60 minutes he took 1.49 PIMS and drew 1.04 which is pretty sizable

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    Any interest in Gusev from Vegas? If he comes in at $3.75 mill per year for 2 years, can we fit that in our budget? Cause if he comes as advertised, that solves our skilled 2nd line winger issue. Puljujarvi and a pick or prospect gets it done as they don’t have cap space to add anything above a million per year.

    Of course he’s an acquisition target of interest and has been discussed quite a bit over the last few weeks.

    That contract proposition is risky, however, assuming the Oilers can scoop Gusev for a nominal acquisition cost (given Vegas has negative leverage and needs to dispose of cap), something like an Ethan Bear and a 5th, absolutely, that risk should be taken.

    They can fit him in because the $3.75M addition will subtract the $750K-$1M that will be “sent to the AHL”. It doesn’t leave much wiggle room for managing injuries during the year but the potential benefit if very high.

    As an aside, no I don’t “want” to trade Ethan Bear but would definitely be willing – he’s a tier below Lagesson and Jones in my mind and there is a chance he may never be more than a tweener (I’ve provided my reasons why in the past).

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Gusev could be an absolutely massive addition. Think about the impact Panarin had in Chicago. I don’t think he’s as talented (from some reports he isn’t a great skater, more of a pp savant), but he could absolutely pop given the chance to play with one of the big three. I would be all for it

    I agree. He’s unproven, but at this point I’m liking the odds of that bet more and more. I don’t even have a problem giving him 2 or 3 years, because I’m 90% certain that if he doesn’t “pop” he’ll be on the next flight back to Moscow.

  62. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, we have room in the budget. If Manning + Brodziak get buried and replaced with Jones + Gambardella, Gusev at $3.75M leaves $913,001 in cap space.

    For all thats holy what is with the love for Jones? Minus eight player that is at best very poor in one one defence. Does not or is not able to clear the front of the net. Could take shooting practice in a hotel lobby and not break any glass. His skating is very good but so is Kurt Brownings.

  63. Munny says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Last year @ 5v5 per 60 minutes he took 1.49 PIMS and drew 1.04 which is pretty sizable

    I am not a fan of that stat.

    In terms of counts he took 20 and drew 14. Nowhere near as bad as the PIM rates look. And in wacky NHL Bush Reffing Land, these numbers can be suffer from considerable variance. As can be seen by comparing his rookie season to the past one.

  64. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Sam Bennett just unlucky, does he have bad linemates, or is he just a huge drag on GF%?

    All this talk about Bennett+Neal for Lucic+Pulju, not sure that makes EDM any better.

    Guy takes a ton of penalties and doesn’t score better than a 3rd liner. Should be finding that quality of player in August in UFA. Patty Maroon costs money.

    He seems to help Jankowski’s numbers but otherwise meh. I’d be open to being persuaded

    I don’t know, but it sure SEEMS like he’s just unlucky. The past 2 seasons every single metric aside from GF% was positive. xGF was 52.3% last season and 53.1% this year.

    He has scored like a 3rd liner, but he was 1.57/60 last year, low end 2nd line.

    Someone else mentioned too bad he doesn’t PK. He did more in 16-17 (1:07 per game) and 17-18 (0:42 per game) and did pretty well. Last 3 seasons combined (162 min) he was top 60 in the league (of 204 forwards >150 min) in GA/60, CA/60, FA/60. Above average by every measure I think.

    I’d count Neal for Lucic a win based on upside. IMO.

    Bennett for Puljujarvi is tougher, but I might go for Bennett even with nothing else attached. But who knows what Puljujarvi will end up being.

  65. godot10 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    So … barring a trade, which I think most of us can agree is very unlikely, Lucic is penciled in as 2LW under all other scenarios? Really? There is nobody that we might give an extended look? NHL roster, AHL roster, ECHL roster, beer league guy? Nobody? No fuckin body? If that is indeed the case, I don’t believe I will have the stomach to watch this team play this year.

    The only spot I see for Lucic is the pressbox.

  66. Munny says:

    godot10: The only spot I see for Lucic is the pressbox.

    So you want to never trade him?

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Lucic …

    Names I’ve heard include James Neal, Sam Bennett, Jason Zucker, Tyler Toffoli.

    Yes to any of the above, but especially Zucker and Toffoli.

    I would trade Lucic for any contract in the entire NHL – well, a couple of the super long ones, like Seabrook or Price, maybe not.

    Of course, in order for a team to take on the Lucic contract for no return, it would likely require 2-3 first round picks (or 2 picks plus Samorukov) – something along those lines.

    If it was for another negative contract like Neal, it may only cost one first round pick.

    If it was for a positive player like Bennett – 2-3 first round picks plus Puljujarvi.

    Zucker? Not even rational thought in my mind.

    ———————

    Puljujarvi for Bennett is something that intrigues me.

  68. Bulging Twine says:

    texmex:
    This is huge if true. Toronto Sports network is reporting…..

    https://www.tsn.ca/toronto-maple-leafs-f-william-nylander-changing-number-to-88-1.1337558

    Wow! That IS huge!!!

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: You think both players have a shot at the 1st line?

    Top 6 does not necessarily mean 1st line and, no, I don’t think both of them will be on the team let alone in the top 6.

    As I said in my posts above, the entire forward roster is probably fluid.

    Benson could be 2LW, 3LW or AHL.

    Shit, I guess he could be 1LW – I would like to see Drai at 2C and Nuge at 3C but I don’t see the coach doing it.

  70. godot10 says:

    Munny: So you want to never trade him?

    I really don’t believe Lucic is tradeable. The “if they are unable to trade him” was implied in that point.

  71. Munny says:

    godot10: I really don’t believe Lucic is tradeable.The “if they are unable to trade him” was implied in that point.

    What do you think your odds are next summer if you pressbox him for a year?

  72. Oil2Oilers says:

    The Oilers as currently constituted are not a playoff team. Even if they were the goal tending is not playoff caliber.

    The organizational asset that offers promise for the future is the defensive pipeline. If Jones and Persson can prove NHL ready this year, if Lagesson and Bouchard can prove NHL ready next year, if Samorukov and Broberg can make the NHL the year after…

    That is a lot of if’s and likely to run into just as many but’s

    But if the if’s beat the but’s trading established defensemen for some desperately needed skill and speed on the wing opens up as soon as next summer.

    Problem is the man with his butt in the big chair history suggests he is a buyer not a trader.

  73. Alpine says:

    pts2pndr: For all thats holy what is with the love for Jones? Minus eight player that is at best very poor in one one defence. Does not or is not able to clear the front of the net. Could take shooting practice in a hotel lobby and not break any glass. His skating is very good but so is Kurt Brownings.

    Putting Jones on the roster over fucking Brandon Manning doesn’t mean people love Jones. Not to mention all your tropes are from 2007.

  74. Professor Q says:

    texmex:
    This is huge if true. Toronto Sports network is reporting…..

    https://www.tsn.ca/toronto-maple-leafs-f-william-nylander-changing-number-to-88-1.1337558

    Right before Toronto could retire Eric Lindros’ number. Shame.

  75. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    If it was for another negative contract like Neal, it may only cost one first round pick.

    Do you think the gap is that large?

    He’s most of a year older than Lucic. His P/60 was virtually identical (0.99 vs 0.97 for Lucic). He somehow managed this on a team where the other 11 regular forwards were 1.57/60 or better (Bennett and Hathaway were tied for next worst).

    He was the worst or 2nd worst Flame forward in GF% and every other 5×5 on ice metric.

    He played 2:09 per game on the PP, but was 167h of 210 NHL forwards in P/60 and 185th in GFon/60.

    He was every bit as bad as Lucic was last year when you take into account quality of team.

    There are only 2 things to recommend him:
    1) Possibility of rebound (he’s only 1 season removed from being a scorer vs 2 for Lucic)
    2) Better buyout structure

    I don’t think that’s worth a first.

  76. GMB3 says:

    Alpine: Putting Jones on the roster over fucking Brandon Manning doesn’t mean people love Jones. Not to mention all your tropes are from 2007.

    He also thinks Nurse played on the World Cup team

  77. defmn says:

    Munny: What do you think your odds are next summer if you pressbox him for a year?

    If Lucic’s play is less than 12 other forwards on the team you pressbox him until he retires or mysteriously develops a career ending injury during practice or elsewhere.

    His contract cannot be a consideration for the coaching staff. That is the GM’s headache.

  78. leadfarmer says:

    jp: Brassard looks like a bounce back candidate for sure.

    He’d averaged 50 points a season (none less than 39) in the 5 years previous to last. And even if he doesn’t bounce back his 23 points last season would have put him in the Oilers top 6.

    It all depends on the price.

    Brassard looks like a guy who took a Lucic Neal Okposo dive so expecting his previous 5 year production is very very unlikely
    I would sign him for a year to trade him at the deadline for a team wanting experience for a pick
    That’s about it

  79. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: If Lucic’s play is less than 12 other forwards on the team you pressbox him until he retires or mysteriously develops a career ending injury during practice or elsewhere.

    His contract cannot be a consideration for the coaching staff. That is the GM’s headache.

    You must be new around here.

  80. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Brassard looks like a guy who took a Lucic Neal Okposo dive so expecting his previous 5 year production is very very unlikely
    I would sign him for a year to trade him at the deadline for a team wanting experience for a pick
    That’s about it

    He may have fallen off the cliff.

    There’s a middle ground between his previous production level and his production last season that could be very useful for the Oilers.

    And yes, clearly you’re not giving the man term or large sums of money.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I would be willing to pay Gusev,
    A chance to get a top 6 winger in around $4-4.25M.
    The roster as is is just awful & the Oilers are desperate.
    There is cap space for a 3C or s top 6 winger.
    Oilers need both, question is; which is more important?

    Usually the player earns that contract in the NHL prior to it being signed.

    Obviously there is a risk with Gusev do to a grand total of zero NHL games, however, as it seems most agree, assuming the acquisition cost is somewhat nominal due to Vegas’ anti-leverage, if we are going with a 2-year max, lets do it – worth the risk in my opinion.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Truth: This is interesting.On a successful team there is no chance they should have a shot at top 6 minutes in their first NHL season.The reason this may be possible is that the top 6 wings currently have names like Kassian, Chiasson, and Lucic.

    I don’t agree with the above initial statement.

    Many successful NHL teams have players on their ELC, including in their rookie NHL years, in the top 6 and producing materially.

    The NHL has changed and young and talented players can, and often do, contribute real top 6 production in their early years.

    Yes, there is a good chance that Benson could “win” some top 6 ice not necessarily because he’s ready for the top 6 but because of lack of other options. Of course, at the same time, he is a high pedgiree/high skill player that could very well prove to be ready to produce in the top 6 – happens all the time.

  83. defmn says:

    hunter1909: You must be new around here.

    Hehe, nope. I have been reading Lowetide since his HF days. I just decided to participate a little. 😉

    And I am serious. If Lucic cannot win a spot in the lineup and he cannot be traded or sent to the AHL then the coach doesn’t play him and the GM has to find a different solution. How long does Lucic sit in the press box before he decides his back is too bad to play hockey anymore? I don’t know but Holland may have to find out.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge: Well it should be close to zero if Holland stay true to his ‘slow play’ history. Even if he has agreat camp I would send him back to junior. It didn’t help Yam or Pulu by pushing them to the NHL too soon. While it didn’t seem to harm Drai it probably didn’t help either. Plus, we have so many forwards competing for spots.

    Yup – as we’ve seen with Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and numerous other players over the years, having great camps and productive exhibition games means very little with respect to the NHL readiness of higher skilled/higher pedgiree players.

    Does anyone think that Ryan McLeod was ready for the NHL last season? His performance at camp meant almost zero with respect to NHL readiness.

    Lavoie can get 5 points in 4 exhibition games and off the Q he will go.

    Maksimov can get 3PP goals in 4 exhibition games and off to Bakersfield he will go.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    DecidedlySkepticalFan:
    So … barring a trade, which I think most of us can agree is very unlikely, Lucic is penciled in as 2LW under all other scenarios? Really? There is nobody that we might give an extended look? NHL roster, AHL roster, ECHL roster, beer league guy? Nobody? No fuckin body? If that is indeed the case, I don’t believe I will have the stomach to watch this team play this year.

    I would say it, partially, depends on how Khaira, Benson, Nygard look but, at the same time, Nuge and Lucic had a 68% goal share in 211 5 on 5 minutes last year – that cannot be ignored.

    I’d feel more comfortable with Nuge/Lucic together if it was the third line:

    XXXX/McDavid/Kassian
    Benson/Drai/Chiasson
    Lucic/Nuge/Jurco

    I guess the XXXX would have to be Granlund, Nyagard, Khaira with current roster construction?

    If Jesse signs, with his decent success with McDavid over the years…….

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy:
    Unfortunately there will be no Nuge at 3C at least for long. Not enough TOI for a player of his stature and talent. Holland or Tippet spoke to it a while back.

    I don’t agree with that theory at all.

    16-18 5 on 5 minutes for each of the top 3 lines and the fourth line gets spotted. Add special teams time, and Nuge will play both, and he’ll have plenty of ice. In fact, I wouldn’t mind if his 5 on 5 minutes were reduced to 15 – he’ll likely play 5 plus on special teams most games and I bet he’s a better player for a bit of a lighter workload.

    Same thing with Drai and McDavid – if they can’ reduce their 5 on 5 minutes from some of the egregious totals they had last year, they will likely be better within the games and as the season goes on.

    We don’t need to go all Babcock on McDavid but spreading those minutes out to three lines makes sense to me.

  87. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: Brassard looks like a guy who took a Lucic Neal Okposo dive so expecting his previous 5 year production is very very unlikely
    I would sign him for a year to trade him at the deadline for a team wanting experience for a pick
    That’s about it

    Signing him would be dumb, because it would remove any cap flexibility the Oilers gained by buying out Sekera. The buyout has created enough cap room to add a top six forward when one becomes available opportunistically.

    There are RFA out there who are going to be signed to massive contracts who are going to shake loose players. Vegas still has to get under the cap.

    Hold on the the cap space and wait. Brassard will not make a difference, only make it impossible to acquire a player this year who can make a difference.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is Sam Bennett just unlucky, does he have bad linemates, or is he just a huge drag on GF%?

    All this talk about Bennett+Neal for Lucic+Pulju, not sure that makes EDM any better.

    Guy takes a ton of penalties and doesn’t score better than a 3rd liner. Should be finding that quality of player in August in UFA. Patty Maroon costs money.

    He seems to help Jankowski’s numbers but otherwise meh. I’d be open to being persuaded

    Switching Lucic for Neal would be such a massive win in isolation. Firstly, Neal has only had one year of terrible anchor hockey – Lucic has been that player for 3 (recall how awful he was 5 on 5 in his first year as well). Not to mention the much better contract that doesn’t have a NMC nor does it have a signing bonus structure so it has a normal buyout structure.

    My preference is for Jesse to sign and re-ignite his career in the Oiler top 6 – his ceiling remains higher than Bennett’s, however, Bennett is just a better hockey player right now – its unfortunately he doesn’t kill penalties (or hasn’t) but he could be a little shit disturber on the 3rd line or middle 6, bring some skill and speed. He hasn’t played center for a while but has shown to be good on the draw which is of use as well.

    I’m not sure I love Jesse for Bennett straight up (although I think there could be some benefits to both teams – more risk for the Oilers) but, given the massive delta between Neal and Lucic, ya, it would have to be considered.

  89. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Usually the player earns that contract in the NHL prior to it being signed.

    Obviously there is a risk with Gusev do to a grand total of zero NHL games, however, as it seems most agree, assuming the acquisition cost is somewhat nominal due to Vegas’ anti-leverage, if we are going with a 2-year max, lets do it – worth the risk in my opinion.

    I’d rather get Cody Eakin than Gusev. Probably less costly to acquire.

  90. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t agree with that theory at all.

    16-18 5 on 5 minutes for each of the top 3 lines and the fourth line gets spotted.Add special teams time, and Nuge will play both, and he’ll have plenty of ice.In fact, I wouldn’t mind if his 5 on 5 minutes were reduced to 15 – he’ll likely play 5 plus on special teams most games and I bet he’s a better player for a bit of a lighter workload.

    Same thing with Drai and McDavid – if they can’ reduce their 5 on 5 minutes from some of the egregious totals they had last year, they will likely be better within the games and as the season goes on.

    We don’t need to go all Babcock on McDavid but spreading those minutes out to three lines makes sense to me.

    You would like to see Nuge’s 5v5 reduced, but would Nuge?

    I agree with what you’re saying, but managing top talent isn’t straight forward, especially if you want to keep them UFA.

    I agree the best deployment is split up the 3 centres and leave one open due to playing softs each game to rip it up.

    Lessens detriments of wingers. Makes the opponents choose their poison. It should also help the D Corp in passing to better lines for more of the game.

    We haven’t seen that yet and I won’t be surprised if we don’t see it much. Tippet will play mcD and Drai together and run Nuge second line. And switch the three around based on opponents until more depth is available.

    2 experienced coaches did this. I hope the difference is Tippet gets more out of the rest of the roster.

  91. VanIsleOil says:

    godot10: Signing him would be dumb, because it would remove any cap flexibility the Oilers gained by buying out Sekera.The buyout has created enough cap room to add a top six forward when one becomes available opportunistically.

    There are RFA out there who are going to be signed to massive contracts who are going to shake loose players.Vegas still has to get under the cap.

    Hold on the the cap space and wait.Brassard will not make a difference, only make it impossible to acquire a player this year who can make a difference.

    This^

  92. Nit64 says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Sorry LT but I do not buy your take on Bob Green. General managers ask questions of their scouts. At some point Pete turned to Bob and asked “What do think Bob…Is Reinhart work our 1st and 2nd? If Pete didn’t ask that question then I agree, it’s on Pete. But seriously…he must have asked?

    Nope that on Pete. If he’s asking for and relying on stale dated recollection about a guy years after draft year that’s on Pete and the pro scouts he inherited. LT’s Whitey story is priceless and spot on.

  93. Reja says:

    pts2pndr: For all thats holy what is with the love for Jones? Minus eight player that is at best very poor in one one defence. Does not or is not able to clear the front of the net. Could take shooting practice in a hotel lobby and not break any glass. His skating is very good but so is Kurt Brownings.

    What’s with the pessimism towards Jones?

  94. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    -LT had a bunch of line-up scenarios.

    – Here’s my “tenured” line up, that splits ups the C’s and Klef/Larsson:

    Nygard-CmD-Kassian
    Benson-Drai-Chiasson
    Lucic-RNH-Pool
    Grandlund/Jurco- Jar/Cave -Gagner/Marody

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russell-Persson/Jones

    – I’m challenging the 2 C’s, to produce on lines themselves, and a speedster for CmD + tough guy

    – I’m giving the wingers chances to play with better C’s

    – I’m giving our best F from AHL a chance to play with skill

    – I’m giving both Nurse and Benning better partners, and more responsibility

    – I’m reasonably confident that some combo of Russell and the rest can do 3rd pairing

    – Goalies on a pre-determined schedule for the first 30 games, and they have this schedule: I’m not riding the hot one, and having the other cool his jets untill the hot one goes cold and vice-versa. So their season and the next week’s schedule isn’t based on their play on one game.

    – After 30 games or so, the one who is better, gets a little more, or you just keep running a schedule so each can prepare in accordance

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Vinny Desharnais signs an AHL contract with the Condors. Great stuff or we would have lost him as UFA in a month. 7th round pick that has covered his draft position.

    I did see a couple of Providence games after they acquired Hawkey but don’t know too much about his progression.

    From what I’ve read, one of the top shut down dmen in the conference last year.

    Will likely start in the ECHL but maybe earns an NHL contract in a year if he keeps progressing.

    Good stuff.

  96. Munny says:

    defmn: If Lucic’s play is less than 12 other forwards on the team you pressbox him until he retires or mysteriously develops a career ending injury during practice or elsewhere.

    His contract cannot be a consideration for the coaching staff. That is the GM’s headache.

    This has yet to be true. You don’t pressbox a guy just because he can’t live up to his contract. And if it does become true, you put him in the A.

  97. deardylan says:

    “Overture, curtains, lights,

    This is it, the night of nights.

    No more rehearsing and nursing a part.

    We know every part by heart.”

    Bugs, Where do we find an NHL Scheffing to call and find our Nolan Ryan?

    We got bamboozled by NYI so bad.

    Is there a way to make other pacific div owners and coaches puke up all that processed sausage when they see the trade wire.

    “Overture, curtains, lights. This is it” …

    #theOilStrikeBack

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    more

    GMB: Currently travelling with no wifi and not great service.. so I can’t look at the #’s but I believe he draws more penalties than he takes. I could be wrong though

    He took 20 and drew 14 last year (one taken was a major, don’t know if it was a fight or a solo major).

    Last three years, he’s taken 64 and drawn 47 (4 taken were majors).

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Brassard looks like a bounce back candidate for sure.

    He’d averaged 50 points a season (none less than 39) in the 5 years previous to last. And even if he doesn’t bounce back his 23 points last season would have put him in the Oilers top 6.

    It all depends on the price.

    I’m only interested in a one-year deal and I would got up to close to $3M in order to get him under contract (as opposed to PTO which doesn’t stop him from signing with any other team).

    Is that way too much (keeping in mind just a one-year risk)?

  100. pts2pndr says:

    Alpine: Putting Jones on the roster over fucking Brandon Manning doesn’t mean people love Jones. Not to mention all your tropes are from 2007.

    Never have I mentioned Manning. There are however Lagesson who plays a physical game with good passing, skating and can actually play defence. There is Bear for the right side who can pass and actually has an actual NHL shot that deserves a chance on the power play. My problem with the posters on this site is as soon it comes to a young Oiler D the first and sometimes only Oilers name that comes up is Jones.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: For all thats holy what is with the love for Jones? Minus eight player that is at best very poor in one one defence. Does not or is not able to clear the front of the net. Could take shooting practice in a hotel lobby and not break any glass. His skating is very good but so is Kurt Brownings.

    I like Lagesson ahead of Jones but I think the ” minus eight” player is a bit misleading.

    I think you need to seperate his minutes with Gravel, which were third pairing, with his minutes with Larsson, which were top pairing.

    In 70 plus minutes with Gravel, he was even.

    He was also even in 44 minutes with Benning.

    He was minus 6 with Larsson and minus 2 in minute minutes with Russell.

    He did very well in the 3rd pairing and not so much when moved up the lineup with tougher minutes.

    Given he was a raw rookie in the NHL, it was kind of unfair to move him up to the top pairing (even though he looked quite good on the third pairing).

    With very few exceptions, those positing he should be in the NHL this year are thinking 3rd pairing.

  102. pts2pndr says:

    Reja: What’s with the pessimism towards Jones?

    He plays more as a rover. He does not clear the front of the net. His one on one D is questionable. Other than that and that there are other deserving candidates such as Bear and Lagesson absolutely nothing.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Do you think the gap is that large?

    He’s most of a year older than Lucic. His P/60 was virtually identical (0.99 vs 0.97 for Lucic). He somehow managed this on a team where the other 11 regular forwards were 1.57/60 or better (Bennett and Hathaway were tied for next worst).

    He was the worst or 2nd worst Flame forward in GF% and every other 5×5 on ice metric.

    He played 2:09 per game on the PP, but was 167h of 210 NHL forwards in P/60 and 185th in GFon/60.

    He was every bit as bad as Lucic was last year when you take into account quality of team.

    There are only 2 things to recommend him:
    1) Possibility of rebound (he’s only 1 season removed from being a scorer vs 2 for Lucic)
    2) Better buyout structure

    I don’t think that’s worth a first.

    Oh, Neal was awful last year, almost Lucic level awful (although I don’t think he showed an ability to take a pass from the d-man at the blue line and move the puck up the ice).

    With that said, yes, I think the gap is that big:

    – its been one year for Neal and 3 (not 2) for Lucic. Recall his 5 on 5 P/60 were actually better in year 2 than year 1 – he’s been a replacement level offensive producer at 5 on 5 for 3 years.

    – Neal’s contract is MILES better than Lucic’s – no trade protection (expansion draft risk even though I’m somewhat confident Lucic would waive) and no signing bonus structure allowing a “reasonable” buy out.

    ————

    To be clear, I wouldn’t trade a first to do it but I think that’s the general amount of pain it would cost.

  104. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Lagesson ahead of Jones but I think the ” minus eight” player is a bit misleading.

    I think you need to seperate his minutes with Gravel, which were third pairing, with his minutes with Larsson, which were top pairing.

    In 70 plus minutes with Gravel, he was even.

    He was also even in 44 minutes with Benning.

    He was minus 6 with Larsson and minus 2 in minute minutes with Russell.

    He did very well in the 3rd pairing and not so much when moved up the lineup with tougher minutes.

    Given he was a raw rookie in the NHL, it was kind of unfair to move him up to the top pairing (even though he looked quite good on the third pairing).

    With very few exceptions, those positing he should be in the NHL this year are thinking 3rd pairing.

    He got beat one on one along the wall like a rented mule. He skates miles but accomplishes little. If you struggle with one on one at the NHL level are you really ready.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: For all thats holy what is with the love for Jones? Minus eight player that is at best very poor in one one defence. Does not or is not able to clear the front of the net. Could take shooting practice in a hotel lobby and not break any glass. His skating is very good but so is Kurt Brownings.

    Really? You’re basing your analysis on +/-?? Considering all the sum total of the minus differential events were when the rookie was forced to play 1st pairing minutes, I think your negativity about this player is a little bit exaggerated.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Hehe, nope. I have been reading Lowetide since his HF days. I just decided to participate a little.

    And I am serious. If Lucic cannot win a spot in the lineup and he cannot be traded or sent to the AHL then the coach doesn’t play him and the GM has to find a different solution. How long does Lucic sit in the press box before he decides his back is too bad to play hockey anymore? I don’t know but Holland may have to find out.

    4 years of LTIR would be an egregious result for the Oilers considering how LTIR works and how limiting that would be for improving the team in each off-season (or during the year) – until they aren’t withing $6-7M of the upper cap limit (so, never)..

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Signing him would be dumb, because it would remove any cap flexibility the Oilers gained by buying out Sekera.The buyout has created enough cap room to add a top six forward when one becomes available opportunistically.

    There are RFA out there who are going to be signed to massive contracts who are going to shake loose players.Vegas still has to get under the cap.

    Hold on the the cap space and wait.Brassard will not make a difference, only make it impossible to acquire a player this year who can make a difference.

    I think acquring a guy on the cheap with short term and somewhat recent top 6 pedigree has a greater chance of leading to top 6 production than waiting for one to fall from the sky that fits within the cap structure.

  108. Glovjuice says:

    godot10:
    I really like Bennett.I think he is pretty close to an ideal winger for McDavid. But I can’t see Calgary trading him.

    Neal and Frolik for Lucic and Puljujarvi makes sense for both teams.Adding Stone for Russell to it makes sense also.

    Agreed, Bennett is a talented Caggiula. Trade Jesse and add to make that happen ASAP.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy: You would like to see Nuge’s 5v5 reduced, but would Nuge?

    I agree with what you’re saying, but managing top talent isn’t straight forward, especially if you want to keep them UFA.

    I agree the best deployment is split up the 3 centres and leave one open due to playing softs each game to rip it up.

    Lessens detriments of wingers. Makes the opponents choose their poison. It should also help the D Corp in passing to better lines for more of the game.

    We haven’t seen that yet and I won’t be surprised if we don’t see it much. Tippet will play mcD and Drai together and run Nuge second line. And switch the three around based on opponents until more depth is available.

    2 experienced coaches did this. I hope the difference is Tippet gets more out of the rest of the roster.

    I want McDavid’s and Drai’s (and Nuge’s) minutes to be reasonable and having Nuge on a 3rd line allows that to happen. Nuge played 14 minutes/game at 5 on 5 last year and I’m confortable with him playing that many 5 on 5 minutes (McDavid played 17.5 and Drai just about 17 – those could definitely come down a minute or two).

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Top 6 does not necessarily mean 1st line and, no, I don’t think both of them will be on the team let alone in the top 6.

    As I said in my posts above, the entire forward roster is probably fluid.

    Benson could be 2LW, 3LW or AHL.

    Shit, I guess he could be 1LW – I would like to see Drai at 2C and Nuge at 3C but I don’t see the coach doing it.

    You said “top 6 and middle 6” so yes, that means 1st line.

    I agree, I don’t see it happening.

  111. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Same thing with Drai and McDavid – if they can’ reduce their 5 on 5 minutes from some of the egregious totals they had last year, they will likely be better within the games and as the season goes on.

    We don’t need to go all Babcock on McDavid but spreading those minutes out to three lines makes sense to me.

    This got me thinking.

    Babcock does seem to always have depth scoring on his teams:

    4th round pick Gustav Nyquist getting career highs of 28 and 27 goals under him playing 16:39 and 16:51 per game.
    The year Babcock leaves, his ice time drops to 15:10 and surprise surprise he gets 10 fewer goals.

    2nd round pick Tomas Tatar getting career high 29 goals playing 16:13/game
    Babcock leaves, new coach plays him 14:21 and his goal total drops by 8.

    2nd round pick Justin Abdelkader getting career high 23 goals playing 2nd most career high 17:55

    5th round pick Darren Helm, career high 15 the same year he played a career high 15:50 per game
    next year ice time drops to 15:04 and he scores 2 less goals in 2 more games

    In 15-16 Babcock moves to Toronto
    He gets 20 goals from PA Parenteau by playing him over 16 minutes/game

    Leo Komarov gets a career high 19 goals in only 67 games by playing a career high 17:50/game. He played 14:42 the year before under different coaches and scored 8.

    Connor Brown breaks onto the scene scoring 20 playing 16:12/game. The next season he gets 15:01 ice time and gets 6 less goals as others moved past him on the depth chart.
    One being Nylander who scores 20 while, you guessed it, playing more than 16 minutes/game – 16:41

    Mitch Marner scores 19 in his rookie season, one reason being, he played 16:49/game.

    Looking at the Oilers, Holland has said that his top off season goals were to get a goalie and get some depth scoring.

    Could one of the answers to getting more depth scoring be as simple as give your depth players more ice time.
    More ice time = more goals
    How can you get depth scoring if McDavid and Draisatll are playing over 22:30 a night?

    There were only 2 other players who averaged more than 16 min/night for the Oilers last year. Nuge and Chiasson.
    Guess what? They both scored over 20 goals!
    We are on to something.

    The year prior again there were only 4 who played more than 16 minutes/game and again all 4 either scored 20 or were on pace to (Maroon only played 57 games and was traded)

    How can one expect depth players to score 15-20 goals when they don’t get the ice time to do so?

    How can Jesse score 15-20 getting 11:57 (or pick your player)

    There are a few morals to this story, one is, find your top 6 or 7 early and play them all 16+ minutes, even if all you have is Leo Komorov, Connor Brown, Justin Abdelkader or Patrick Maroon but stick with them. You may find you have some surprise 20 goal scorers. Who would have thought that Leo Komorov could score at a 23 goal pace? Then they build market value and when you find better upgrades – like a Marner, or Nylander or Kapanen, you play them and stick with them.

    Alternatively, you can’t expect a top 6 if you don’t play people top 6 minutes. You can expect a top 4 though playing only 4 people top 6 minutes.

    Edit: Another take away is QUIT SCREWING WITH THE LINES! Players want continuity to develop chemistry. One bad game doesn’t mean you change your lineup. Have some patience it will pay off as the season and seasons go on.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: What’s with the pessimism towards Jones?

    Well, from the post you responded to, it seems he thinks that Jones has poor 1 on 1 defence, a poor shot and a poor ability to clear the front of the net.

  113. rickithebear says:

    2014 draft:
    MacT drafted
    Draisaitl #3 overall
    our 2nd best forward prospect in 25 years.
    A 50G 100P player.
    Lagesson #91
    overall Our best GA dman prospect in 15 years.

    From 6 picks with an Cummulative expected success rate of
    #3 (82.6%) + #91(12.8%) + 111(9.2%) + 130(8.5%) + 153(7.9%) + 183(6.6%)
    = 127.6%

    You expect to get 1 player from this draft that plays 300 games.

    Not 2 of the top 2 prospects at the 2 most critical repetative champ core skater positions in the last 15-20 years.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Never have I mentioned Manning. There are however Lagesson who plays a physical game with good passing, skating and can actually play defence. There is Bear for the right side who can pass and actually has an actual NHL shot that deserves a chance on the power play. My problem with the posters on this site is as soon it comes to a young Oiler D the first and sometimes only Oilers name that comes up is Jones.

    I used Jones for illustrative purposes regarding cap hit only, don’t get your panties in a twist over it. Bear makes the same amount and Lagesson just $22k more, for cap purposes it makes virtually no difference which player makes the team.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux:
    -LT had a bunch of line-up scenarios.

    – Here’s my “tenured” line up, that splits ups the C’s and Klef/Larsson:

    Nygard-CmD-Kassian
    Benson-Drai-Chiasson
    Lucic-RNH-Pool
    Grandlund/Jurco- Jar/Cave -Gagner/Marody

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russell-Persson/Jones

    – I’m challenging the 2 C’s, to produce on lines themselves, and a speedster for CmD + tough guy

    – I’m giving the wingers chances to play with better C’s

    – I’m giving our best F from AHL a chance to play with skill

    – I’m giving both Nurse and Benning better partners, and more responsibility

    – I’m reasonably confident that some combo of Russell and the rest can do 3rd pairing

    – Goalies on a pre-determined schedule for the first 30 games, and they have this schedule: I’m not riding the hot one, and having the other cool his jets untill the hot one goes cold and vice-versa.So their season and the next week’s schedule isn’t based on their play on one game.

    – After 30 games or so, the one who is better, gets a little more, or you just keep running a schedule so each can prepare in accordance

    There is alot that I like with your lineup.

    I am in favor of breaking up McDavid and Drai and going with the 3 center approach. It allows the coach to more easily roll 3, and even 4, lines and reducing the wear and tear (within games and as the season goes on) for Drai and McDavid should be beneficial. Also, more natural minutes for the 3 centers could/should be supplemented by subbing in on the 4th line which, god willing, will have more speed and skill than we’ve seen recently.

    Drai has proven to be able to drive offence at first line rates away from McDavid and with a mix-match of winger often including tweeners. In the past he had an issue with leaking goals against but then Hitch got a hold of him. From accounts there was some tough love but Drai was a different player after a month of Hitch – a legit 2-way player that was consistent in effort and performance in all three zones – he became a plus defensive center and, assuming he does not regress, the organization should be grateful to Hitch for this (and not much else from last year).

    I’m more concerned with McDavid leaking goals against than Drai now.

    I am fine with Benson in the top 6 assuming a solid camp – a great camp on its own doesn’t mean much but, if it seems a natural progression from last year, sure, go for it.

    I’m not sure about Nygard as 1LW – lets see if he’s even an NHL player – options are indeed limited but I wouldn’t be adverse to trying Jesse in that spot.

    Nuge and Lucic on the third line does make sense given their 68% goal share in 211 minutes last year. I don’t like Jesse with Lucic and would flip him with Chiasson or Kassian.

    I’m not against splitting Klef and Larsson and would like to bring to everyone’s attention how great Nurse/Larsson were as a pairing two years ago – the team was bad and they were plus 10 and plus 15 paired together in the tough minutes. Last year was a different story but I look for Larsson to rebound in general – he seemed legit upset at his own play and I think he’s going to have a massive season like he did in 2015/16.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: This has yet to be true.You don’t pressbox a guy just because he can’t live up to his contract.And if it does become true, you put him in the A.

    Lucic has a NMC so he would have to agree to be waived and to an AHL assignment.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: Never have I mentioned Manning. There are however Lagesson who plays a physical game with good passing, skating and can actually play defence. There is Bear for the right side who can pass and actually has an actual NHL shot that deserves a chance on the power play. My problem with the posters on this site is as soon it comes to a young Oiler D the first and sometimes only Oilers name that comes up is Jones.

    I would posit that Bear’s deficiencies are more limiting right now than those you posit for Jones.

    I mean, Bear showed those deficiencies in his brief cup of coffee and got caved on the 3rd pairing (wheras Jones looked quite good on the third pairing and only struggled up the lineup).

    Further, I watched alot of the Condors last year and Bear shows the exact same deficiencies that caused him problems two years ago in the NHL – handling speed on the rush and in puck retrieval, board battles in the defensive zone,

  118. blainer says:

    I find it odd how many here have Nygard over Haas. Haas is a RT shot center and Holland has tried to sign him in the past as well. My gut tells me he makes the team ahead of Nygard.

    The problem with this is.. are we really counting on these guys to improve this team and make the playoff’s?

    Add to that .. F**cking Granlund.. the next version of an old Jussi Jokinen.. would much rather have that money spent on Sheehan or someone who can play decent on the PK. Holland has done zip to help this team other than not sign a dumb contract. I feel we are going to be extremely disappointed with this GM. Hopefully he proves me wrong by training camp as there are a few teams that will be looking to trade once they get their RFA’s signed but I have my doubts based on the deals he already missed out on.

    IMO so far Holland has proven to be no better than Chia. This team as it stands now is a Connor McDavid injury away from finishing 31st.

    If these are the best lineup’s we can come up with we will need a goaltending miracle. Odds are I won’t watch anymore than the first three losses in a row to start the season.

    I will come here though for my entertainment as it will be one hell of a shit show.

    And believe it or not I’m usually always optimistic on everything Oil but after this offseason I have finally lost hope in this team.

    I do reserve the right though to jump back on the bandwagon should such a goaltending miracle occur !!

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: He plays more as a rover. He does not clear the front of the net. His one on one D is questionable. Other than that and that there are other deserving candidates such as Bear and Lagesson absolutely nothing.

    Lagesson is well ahead of Bear as far as NHL readiness – in my opinion.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: You said “top 6 and middle 6” so yes, that means 1st line.

    I agree, I don’t see it happening.

    Certainly does not mean 1st line.

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Certainly does not mean 1st line.

    So why did you say “top 6 and middle 6” if you are explicitly excluding the 1st line? You are aware that an NHL team only has 2 sets of 6 forwards, right?

  122. defmn says:

    Munny: This has yet to be true.You don’t pressbox a guy just because he can’t live up to his contract.And if it does become true, you put him in the A.

    I don’t believe Lucic’s contract allows him to be sent to the A.

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    Good grief.
    No one is accounting for Sam Gagner at more than $3M on the cap.
    A huge drag on team building.

  124. blainer says:

    Bulging Twine: This got me thinking.

    Babcock does seem to always have depth scoring on his teams:

    4th round pick Gustav Nyquist getting career highs of 28 and 27 goals under him playing 16:39 and 16:51 per game.
    The year Babcock leaves, his ice time drops to 15:10 and surprise surprise he gets 10 fewer goals.

    2nd round pick Tomas Tatar getting career high 29 goals playing 16:13/game
    Babcock leaves, new coach plays him 14:21 and his goal total drops by 8.

    2nd round pick Justin Abdelkader getting career high 23 goals playing 2nd most career high 17:55

    5th round pick Darren Helm, career high 15 the same year he played a career high 15:50 per game
    next year ice time drops to 15:04 and he scores 2 less goals in 2 more games

    In 15-16 Babcock moves to Toronto
    He gets 20 goals from PA Parenteau by playing him over 16 minutes/game

    Leo Komarov gets a career high 19 goals in only 67 games by playing a career high 17:50/game.He played 14:42 the year before under different coaches and scored 8.

    Connor Brown breaks onto the scene scoring 20 playing 16:12/game.The next season he gets 15:01 ice time and gets 6 less goals as others moved past him on the depth chart.
    One being Nylander who scores 20 while, you guessed it, playing more than 16 minutes/game – 16:41

    Mitch Marner scores 19 in his rookie season, one reason being, he played 16:49/game.

    Looking at the Oilers, Holland has said that his top off season goals were to get a goalie and get some depth scoring.

    Could one of the answers to getting more depth scoring be as simple as give your depth players more ice time.
    More ice time = more goals
    How can you get depth scoring if McDavid and Draisatll are playing over 22 minutes/ night?

    There were only 2 other players who averaged more than 16 min/night for the Oilers last year.Nuge and Chiasson.
    Guess what?They both scored over 20 goals!
    We are on to something.

    The year prior again there were only 4 who played more than 16 minutes/game and again all 4 either scored 20 or were on pace to (Maroon only played 57 games and was traded)

    How can one expect depth players to score 15-20 goals when they don’t get the ice time to do so?

    How can Jesse score 15-20 getting 11:57 (or pick your player)

    The moral of the story is find your top 6 early andplay them all 16+ minutes, even if all you have is Leo Komorov, Connor Brown, Justin Abdelkader or Patrick Maroon but stick with them.You may find you have some surprise 20 goal scorers.Who would have thought that Leo Komorov could score at a 23 goal pace?Then they build market value and when you find better upgrades – like a Marner, or Nylander or Marleau, you play them and stick with them.

    Alternatively, you can’t expect a top 6 if you don’t play people top 6 minutes.You can expect a top 4 though playing only 4 people top 6 minutes.

    This is a great point but the problem is how do you do that when your Goalie is letting the first shot on net go in so much. It seemed we were always trying to catch up so much last year from almost the drop of the puck. This team needs solid goaltending and if that happens I think you are on to something here !!

  125. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The way I see D prospects is having an NHL toolkit.

    Jones has
    Bouchard has
    Samurokov has
    Lagesson has ? is skating which isn’t awful
    Bear is smaller and skating is a worry, he said himself he didn’t train enough before
    Persson is smaller and isn’t a great skater, bad combo in the NHL like Bear
    Bro is to young to figure in yet but has everything he needs

    The last piece is enough drive (which is a ton to make any top pro league) and luck with opportunity and health.

  126. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar:
    Glad you finally agree with an observation I made three years ago.
    Mcdavid and Draisaitl can make any 2 Nd line evg winger (8 evg) a 1st line winger.
    15-16 evg

    I have stated recently we should spread the 1480 even time on ice between 3 to 4 wingers.
    I prefer
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Granlund
    Jurco

    Draisaitl, Gagner, & Chaisson generate Top PP1 evgf/60 results.

    I had stated a need for large increase in evg production from our bottom 7 forward games played.
    From 5.67 per.

    Pre free agency after looking for the best evg mass ( total) options.
    I identified pomminville the best evg mass ( total) and evg/Million winger available in free agency.

    I tried posting, the list of my viable 8 evg free agent forwards available, last night
    Cannot remember if the IPad died and did not post it.
    Then just feel asleep.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Gregor (and the spot by Tippett on his show last week, which was a fun listen), Tippett will be hiring one more assistant and that should happen this week or next – he’s currently talking to candidates – will be an “upstairs guy” to relay info mostly.

  128. blainer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lagesson is well ahead of Bear as far as NHL readiness – in my opinion.

    I also think Laggesson is our closest ready D and will prove it in camp this year. I’d also bet that if there a lot of injuries that Samorukov will be up and playing well by Feb. I think this player is the real thing and he’ll prove it quicker than most realize.

  129. innercitysmytty says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    You’ve mentioned this a number of times about LTIR but I don’t quite follow your reasoning. I’ve read the LTIR content on Capfriendly and that’s not quite how I read it. Would appreciate your interpretation as I’m only an accountant by background and not a lawyer. Given some good GMs have tapped into this (see Toronto, Vegas and Tampa likely for this season coming up) as well as others in the past without it seeming to limit them any more than using LTIR in season.

  130. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: 4 years of LTIR would be an egregious result for the Oilers considering how LTIR works and how limiting that would be for improving the team in each off-season (or during the year) – until they aren’t withing $6-7M of the upper cap limit (so, never)..

    Better than four years of cap hit that can’t play. Not saying it is a good solution. I think good solutions are pretty much non-existent.

  131. Lowetide says:

    No matter who you believe is the best option from the AHL (I believe it is Jones), one hopes for good health for each of them. I always think of Doug Lynch when the discussion turns to AHL defensemen who are on the cusp.

  132. rickithebear says:

    Bulging twine:
    Since 07-08 when I generated my own WoWY manually on line.

    I have posted the best WoWY pairs when we first started discussing line combinations.
    Mine hav been supported by data since 07-08.

    4-5 years later
    People started to look at WoWY as a %.
    Which does not tell you the players real factor.

    90+ % of the leading 240+ ev goal scorers were forwards.
    You want forwards evg mass and Evgf/60 in WoWY pairs.
    Which I posted from day 1.

    The GA is only majorly influenced by forwards when they run a NZ trap.
    Often a system decision.

    So you want to run players together who have a strong history together.
    You want to play players together with types they show success with.

    This is a point I made 11-12 years ago.

    A theorem that most ignored.
    Cause once again they did not understand
    Or
    It did not fit their constructed narative there opinions were based on.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Yes but that’s also because you have no other options
    If you are spending over 20 million to pay 3 out of the 5 bodies that play 1/3 of the game
    It means you are pretty much screwed
    If we added another 6 mil contract to that line
    It means you are absolutely screwed
    Because let’s say both D that play with that line make 4 mil that would mean you are spending half the cap on covering 1/3 of the ice time (a little more with the D)
    So then the other 40 minutes you are just trying to stay alive which has been the Oilers game plan
    So Mcdavid and Drai have to play with a bottom 6 forward or they have to be split up so at least you have a pisscutter on the ice 2/3 of the game
    Unfortunately for us one guy gets to play with them and the rest are almost worthless

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: So why did you say “top 6 and middle 6” if you are explicitly excluding the 1st line? You are aware that an NHL team only has 2 sets of 6 forwards,right?

    Top 6 – 1st or 2nd line

    Middle 6 – 2nd line or 3rd line

    I said one would be competing for a top 6 or middle 6 job while the other would be competing for a middle 6 job.

    I also said, I doubt both break camp with the team. With that said, if both of them did make the team, its pretty clear that there could be Benson as 2LW and Marody as 3C or 3RW.

    Somehow you stretched my initial post to a suggestion that Benson and Marody would both be on the 1st line. How a knowledgeable poster could surmise that from a suggestion that one is competing for a top 6 or middle 6 job while the other is competing for a middle 6 job totally escapes me unless, of course, its personal……

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:
    I find it odd how many here have Nygard over Haas. Haas is a RT shot center and Holland has tried to sign him in the past as well. My gut tells me he makes the team ahead of Nygard.

    I still believe that both these players should first and foremost have to prove that they are NHL players.

    Yes, I’m aware of the LW depth, especially after Drai, however, in my opinion, Nygard should be competing to make the team and in a bottom six/PK role. Yes, I know he’s fast but that does not necessarily mean he’s an NHL player and definitely not someone that should be playing 17 minutes against the toughest players in the world.

    With respect to Haas, I had him slated for the AHL until his verbal about NHL or back home (subject to a short adjustment stint in the AHL if necessary). Of course, this isn’t a Puljujarvi situation where the team may be coerced in to playing him in the NHL – if he’s not an NHL player, back to Europe is fine, however, with verbal like that its clear the Oilers signed him hoping he’s an NHL player right now when I still am shocked it wasn’t a huge depth signing.

    Do we really see him as an NHL center right now? I note that during his spot on the Gregor show last week (or it may have been Oilers Now), he admitted that, while he’s improved, faceoffs are not a strong point of his game.

  136. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: Drai has proven to be able to drive offence at first line rates away from McDavid and with a mix-match of winger often including tweeners.

    Are you sure about that, IIRC, the reason both Hitch and McClellan kept going back to McDavid and Drai together was that separately the numbers were not good.

    I may dig into them.

  137. rickithebear says:

    Bulging Twine:

    But no matter how much a symbiotic like type WoWY match should make sense.
    Some will fail.

    That is why I posted the best WoWY lines for the Mcdavid – Draisaitl set that had 24 evg each in 888 EVTOI.

    You want to know what the best Cummulative evgf/60 a line should create.
    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Chaisson 4.00 evg/60
    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian 4.00 evg/60
    Plus top pairs.
    Lucic – XXX – Gagner 2.75 evg/60
    Xxx- RNH – Kassian 2.67 evg/60
    Chaisson – RNH – 2.50 evg/60

    That is why Pre free agency.
    It was clear we run.
    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – xxx with Kassian getting 1/3 EVTOI.
    Xxx – RNH – Kassian
    Lucic – XXX – Gagner

    Day 2 of free agency it made sense to run

    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
    Lucic – XXX – Gagner
    Khaira – Brodziak – Jurco

    With Chaisson, granlund, jurco getting RW time with Mcdavid.
    It was obvious from start of day 2 of free agency we needed a 3C with options being
    -Granlund, Khaira, Draisaitl, Brodziak playing some 3 C with Lucic- Gagner
    – Gagner slotting 3 C with Lucic LW & Granlund, Jurco, Chaisson, Kassian getting LW.

    Their should be minimal chance prospects get high evtoi.
    They would need to generate 10-8 evg a top 4 to 6 fwd pace.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: Are you sure about that, IIRC, the reason both Hitch and McClellan kept going back to McDavid and Drai together was that separately the numbers were not good.

    I may dig into them.

    When your two best players have a 5v5 goals percentage for less than 40% without each other you know your roster is a hot pile of garbage
    Other than those two we are a 90s expansion team

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:

    IMO so far Holland has proven to be no better than Chia.This team as it stands now is a Connor McDavid injury away from finishing 31st.

    If these are the best lineup’s we can come up with we will need a goaltending miracle. Odds are I won’t watch anymore than the first three losses in a row to start the season.

    I will come here though for my entertainment as it will be one hell of a shit show.

    And believe it or not I’m usually always optimistic on everything Oil but after this offseason I have finally lost hope in this team.

    Chia inherited a team with a solid young core and some very good secondary pieces, a Connor McDavid draft pick, other very good draft picks and a solid cap situation. Little depth of prospects mind you.

    Holland, who has been on the job for two months, inherited a team with a small high end core, zero depth, massive anchor contracts and zero cap room along with a fan-base sick and tired of losing like never before. He does have a good prospect pool.

    Holland has been clear his job is to create a contender for the cup, a consistent contender for the cup and, while the playoffs this year is a secondary goal, he won’t make moves in the name of that goal that hinder in any material way the ultimate goal.

    KH has done nothing that resembles what Chia has done – sure, his summer of low key moves does mirror what PC did last summer, however, what Holland hasn’t done is “make things worse” – he did not commit term to any marginal player and definitely not term with material cap (see Russell, see Koskinen), he did not more draft picks or any sort of material future asset in the name of an immediate improvement that would be of short term benefit (a Faulk, Spurgeon, etc – close to UFA player that would require significant cap increases for their decline years).

    He is trying to undo some of the damage but doing it patiently knowing that the organization’s opportunity for vast improvement comes within a summer or two.

  140. frjohnk says:

    From Jan 1st to the end of the year ( 43 games)

    Drai on the ice without McDavid had a GF/60 of 1.37 and a GF% of 29%. ( 251 mins)
    McDavid on the ice without Drai had a GF/60 of 1.9 and a GF% of 29%. ( 305 mins)
    Together they had a GF/60 of 4.4 and a GF% of 52% ( 449 mins)

    They had a GF/60 together of 8.4 when at 5 on 4.

    They were fire at 3 on 3 and 4 on 4.

    Here they had a GF/60 of 14.67!!!!!

  141. Bulging Twine says:

    rickithebear:
    Bulging twine:
    Since 07-08 when I generated my own WoWY manually on line.

    I have posted the best WoWY pairs when we first started discussing line combinations.
    Mine hav been supported by data since 07-08.

    4-5 years later
    People started to look at WoWY as a %.
    Which does not tell you the players real factor.

    90+ % of the leading 240+ ev goal scorers were forwards.
    You want forwards evg mass and Evgf/60 in WoWY pairs.
    Which I posted from day 1.

    The GA is only majorly influenced by forwards when they run a NZ trap.
    Often a system decision.

    So you want to run players together who have a strong history together.
    You want to play players together with types they show success with.

    This is a point I made 11-12 years ago.

    A theorem that most ignored.
    Cause once again they did not understand
    Or
    It did not fit their constructed narative there opinions were based on.

    Okay interesting. WOWY pairs at FW. Thanks for the explanation.

    As I read your posts championing evgf/60 for FW’s and HD shots with good shooting % and iirc you weren’t much into P1 assists I thought how does that guy who scores those goals get the puck there in that position and if all three on the line are shooters from in close would they benefit replacing one with a guy who was great at passes to the slot.
    So you are saying, look at evgf/60 WOWY’s as a pair.

    What again is goal mass?

  142. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s amazing how many people want Holland to come in guns blazing
    Cause it worked out so well for the last guy

  143. leadfarmer says:

    Drai and Mcdavid will probably need to have a 70% goal share this year to overcome the hot pile of garbage on the second and third line.
    Lucic at least is a a Belanger triangle for everyone which will mitigate some of the goal loss on that line but our second line will probable be under 40% and third line between 40-45%

  144. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Are you sure about that, IIRC, the reason both Hitch and McClellan kept going back to McDavid and Drai together was that separately the numbers were not good.

    I may dig into them.

    I posted this info the last week & today.

    They are 1st line with Chaisson, Kassian, RNH.
    But Draisaitl and Mcdavid are 3.24 Cummulative Evgf/60 as a WoWY pair.
    On another level.

    You would hope for 1050-1100 EVTOI first line players get.
    With the other 350 – 430 EVTOI going seperated both playing centers.

    WoWY helps with smart distribution of paired and seperated EVTOI for players.

    Once again something I have done since 07-08.

    Ignored by many on here. For half a decade or more.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair:
    Good grief.
    No one is accounting for Sam Gagner at more than $3M on the cap.
    A huge drag on team building.

    With all the drags on team building, Gagner for one more year at $3M isn’t really close to the top is it?

    Worth that cap hit? Of course not, however, he did produce a solid rates last year, I believe at middle 6 levels and 5th on the team, he provides leadership, can play up and down the lineup, adds some skill to the middle six and can help on PP2. Given the lack of skill up front, Gagner is not near the top of my issues list.

  146. frjohnk says:

    Last 3 years Drai without McDavid 5 on 5 on ice
    GF/60 of 2.18
    GF% of 41%

    Last year Drai without McDavid 5 on 5 on ice
    GF/60 of 1.78
    GF% of 37%

    Drai last 3 years has a pts/60 of 2.41
    Drai last 3 years has a pts/60 of 2.79 with McDavid
    Drai last 3 years has a pts/60 of 1.78 without mcDavid

    Drai last year had a pts/60 of 2.57
    Drai last year had a pts/60 of 3.35 with McDavid
    Drai last year had a pts/60 of 1.47 without McDavid

  147. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s amazing how many people want Holland to come in guns blazing
    Cause it worked out so well for the last guy

    No, we wanted Holland to come in and not make moves that looked suspiciously like the last four guys.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer: This is a great point but the problem is how do you do that when your Goalie is letting the first shot on net go in so much. It seemed we were always trying to catch up so much last year from almost the drop of the puck. This team needs solid goaltending and if that happens I think you are on to something here !!

    The goalie needs to make a save for the team here and there, however, the majority of those first shot goals were off very high danger chances – yup, the goalies need to be better but I can’t put all those first shot goals on the goalie – lots of team culpability.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy:
    The way I see D prospects is having an NHL toolkit.

    Jones has
    Bouchard has
    Samurokov has
    Lagesson has ? is skating which isn’t awful
    Bear is smaller and skating is a worry, he said himself he didn’t train enough before
    Persson is smaller and isn’t a great skater, bad combo in the NHL like Bear
    Bro is to young to figure in yet but has everything he needs

    The last piece is enough drive (which is a ton to make any top pro league) and luck with opportunity and health.

    I posit Lagesson absolutely has the NHL toolkit – his skating is fine – no, he’s not Nurse or Jones but his skating is not an issue.

  150. Dr. Taboggan says:

    leadfarmer: When your two best players have a 5v5 goals percentage for less than 40% without each other you know your roster is a hot pile of garbage
    Other than those two we are a 90s expansion team

    This is accurate. Even RNH, our third best forward, has pretty mediocre career fancies. Great on the pp but pretty dismal on the pk. It is truly mind blowing that the roster is so putrid after drafting top 10 for nearly 15 years. There is a real chance Kassian is our #1 right winger this season. That says all you need to know about this team. Looking forward to the upcoming draft posts.

  151. godot10 says:

    Munny: This has yet to be true.You don’t pressbox a guy just because he can’t live up to his contract.And if it does become true, you put him in the A.

    You can’t put Lucic in the AHL. #NMC.

    And you pressbox him because there will be 12 better forwards, you can’t sent him to the AHL, and you likely cannot trade him, and buying him out is worse salary cap wise than not buying him out.

  152. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: When your two best players have a 5v5 goals percentage for less than 40% without each other you know your roster is a hot pile of garbage
    Other than those two we are a 90s expansion team

    Yup, looking back at the mess that Chia left this team in, its truly shocking.

  153. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think acquring a guy on the cheap with short term and somewhat recent top 6 pedigree has a greater chance of leading to top 6 production than waiting for one to fall from the sky that fits within the cap structure.

    Then you have no room for Tyler Johnson if he becomes available once Point is signed.

  154. jeetz says:

    Forget the 3C idea.

    McD and Drai 20-22 min/ night

    GET RNH A TRUE TOP 6 WINGER BY CHRISTMAS!!! (not named PJ, Benson or Yamo)

    RNH plus XXX 16-17 min a night

    Sign Boyle to a PTO and run a Veteran 3rd line of

    Chaisson Boyle Granlund 12-14 min a night

    have Lucic Khaira + one other as a 4th line 10 min a night

    You have Kassian, Jurco, Nygard, JP, Gagner, Haas to fill out 4 positions…1 top winger, 1 second line winger, 1 4th line winger and the 13th fwd

    Finding a true winger for RNH is critical for our success and probably to having RNH resign as an Oiler

  155. leadfarmer says:

    Jethro Tull: No, we wanted Holland to come in and not make moves that looked suspiciously like the last four guys.

    He made no commitments for after the 20-21 season. Which is all I wanted from him other than bring a Boyle Brassard or Pominville or such for one year that we could trade at the deadline for a pick.
    Wasn’t excited about Smith but it’s one year and this team is not competing this year

  156. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Then you have no room for Tyler Johnson if he becomes available once Point is signed.

    I’m guessing we are not a place he agrees to be traded to. If they spend a few years in California or Florida or similar and have any restricted mobility they will exercise it

  157. blainer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Chia inherited a team with a solid young core and some very good secondary pieces, a Connor McDavid draft pick, other very good draft picks and a solid cap situation.Little depth of prospects mind you.

    Holland, who has been on the job for two months, inherited a team with a small high end core, zero depth, massive anchor contracts and zero cap room along with a fan-base sick and tired of losing like never before.He does have a good prospect pool.

    Holland has been clear his job is to create a contender for the cup, a consistent contender forthe cup and, while the playoffs this year is a secondary goal, he won’t make moves in the name of that goal that hinder in any material way the ultimate goal.

    KH has done nothing that resembles what Chia has done – sure, his summer of low key moves does mirror what PC did last summer, however, what Holland hasn’t done is “make things worse” – he did not commit term to any marginal player and definitely not term with material cap (see Russell, see Koskinen), he did not more draft picks or any sort of material future asset in the name of an immediate improvement that would be of short term benefit (a Faulk, Spurgeon, etc – close to UFA player that would require significant cap increases for their decline years).

    He is trying to undo some of the damage but doing it patiently knowing that the organization’s opportunity for vast improvement comes within a summer or two.

    Yes I have read this point of view on many occasions and I agree with most of it. I also don’t think we need to go all out and blow shit up like trading Hall or the 16th and 33rd picks for an unproven player playing in the minors.

    What I would like to see is a GM that can win a trade that makes the team better. Just because the last GM fucked things up royally doesn’t mean we should not try and make the team better without making those dumbass trades. Calgary did the opposite of what we did. Traded picks and improved their team big time. It can be done. Does that mean we sit tight and wait. I said as much in my above post that I would be okay if he waits to get the right deal before the season.. I sure hope the team does not go into the seaseon the way it is now..What I also have said in previous posts is the shame it will be to miss out on the playoff’s with CMD for yet another season.

    I know lot’s of people here are patient and willing to go another year of a lottery pick.. I just don’t want that to happen again. I’m not saying do dumb shit.. What I am saying is make a good trade that works for us for a change.

    After all the stupid shit that Chia did I can understand if Holland is weary of making a trade but a trade needs to happen.. Just the right one. We can have it both ways.. Trade for the right player and keep an eye on the future. I have seen other teams do this on a few occasions already this offseason..Unfortunately we weren’t one of them

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    innercitysmytty:
    OriginalPouzar,

    You’ve mentioned this a number of times about LTIR but I don’t quite follow your reasoning. I’ve read the LTIR content on Capfriendly and that’s not quite how I read it. Would appreciate your interpretation as I’m only an accountant by background and not a lawyer. Given some good GMs have tapped into this (see Toronto, Vegas and Tampa likely for this season coming up) as well as others in the past without it seeming to limit them any more than using LTIR in season.

    The LTIR regime is extremely hard to follow, confusing and the information out there incomplete (its not completely in the CBA and there are internal NHL/team memos that include some of the detailed rules).

    From a very very high level:

    – firstly, LTIR never relieves the team of the player’s cap hit but it can provide the team a relief cushion to go over the upper cap limit.

    – even if we knew that Lucic would be going on LTIR for the year, the team would need to be cap compliant, including Lucic’s cap hit, on day 1 of the regular season. The team would then place Lucic on LTIR and be allowed to go over the cap, not by Lucic’s $6M but by an amount equal to Lucic’s $6M less the cap space they had on day one. If the team had $2.5M of cap space, they’d be able to go over the cap by $3.5M

    – of course, its now October and tough to really use that cap space – the ability to build the team in the off-season is highly hindered by Lucic even though they will get a cushion on day 1.

    – if Toronto didn’t have Horton, it would be ALOT easier to get Marner under contract without all the dispositions they have had to do – but they need to be cap compliant with Horton on day 1.

    – going in to the following season, again, need to be cap compliant with Lucic on day 1 of the regular season prior to placing him on LTIR – limiting off-season use of the Lucic’s cap space.

    – off-season LTIR can be used as an exception to get cap compliant but its even more inefficient and reduces the amount the team can go over the upper cap limit

    – next, the calculation of a team’s cap hit is actually quite complicated – the cap hit is determined daily and the pro rated daily portion that a team is under the cap accumulates and can be banked for use later in the year.

    – the above sentence is why a team with a million dollars of cap space may be able to acquire a $5M player at the deadline.

    – if a team is using the LTIR cushion, they will be over their adjusted cap accrual threshold and accumulating no cap space to use for in-season improvements – highly limiting a contender’s ability to make transactions during the season.

    Those are just two high level reasons.

  159. Bulging Twine says:

    frjohnk:
    Last 3 years Drai without McDavid 5 on 5 on ice
    GF/60 of 2.18
    GF% of 41%

    Last year Drai without McDavid 5 on 5 on ice
    GF/60 of 1.78
    GF% of 37%

    Drai last 3 years has a pts/60 of 2.41
    Drai last 3 years has a pts/60 of 2.79 with McDavid
    Drai last 3 years has a pts/60 of 1.78 without mcDavid

    Drai last year had a pts/60 of 2.57
    Drai last year had a pts/60 of 3.35 with McDavid
    Drai last year had a pts/60 of 1.47 without McDavid

    oof

    Was there any other player that he did decent with, while not playing with McDavid, that is still here?:

    Last 3 years Drai without McDavid and with:

    Khaira 3.23 GF/60 52.38 GF%

    There are two others that did okay to good offensively but poorly defensively with Drai and without McDavid:

    Kassian 3.37 Gf/60 40.91 GF%

    RNH 2.35 GF/60 39.13 GF%

    Did you have to calculate the wowy points yourself or is there a place to get those numbers?

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Better than four years of cap hit that can’t play. Not saying it is a good solution. I think good solutions are pretty much non-existent.

    Not really much better, if any – can’t use the eventual cap relief cushion to improve until October.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Are you sure about that, IIRC, the reason both Hitch and McClellan kept going back to McDavid and Drai together was that separately the numbers were not good.

    I may dig into them.

    If i remember correctly, the GF% wasn’t good but GA were the issue, not GF.

    Hitch fixed this!

  162. rickithebear says:

    Bulging Twine:

    Goal Mass is physics.

    Goal Mass ( total goals) = (shot density x shots/gm or shots/60) x total unit of time in gm or per 60.

    Shooting% is density.
    But fwds with superior open ( net space) High Danger ( High success by location penetration) density have a higher repeatable career shooting %.

    PDO would have you believe that players who repeatedly shoot in the high danger zone ( homeplate) at a higher % (Fwds) should Regress to the the same shooting % as players who repeatedly shoot in the low danger zone ( perimeter) at a high % forwards.

    That is the problem with PDO.
    It does not differentiate between players. Fwds & Dmen.
    It is a binary approach.

    When you look at average for forwards and dmen.
    Binary is anslysis is a low resolution anslysis.

    Think of pictures.
    Thumbnail is binary analysis.
    As you increase the multivariable Analysis you are adding a higher resolution ( pixel count to the) picture. Game analysis.

    The higher the resolution the more clear ( correct) the results become.

    That is why Current binary theory requires the statement.
    Not enough sample size.
    Repetition of more data sets may cause more example of the expected theorem.
    But that is the worst case of false measure.

    The deeper the resolution of Analysis.
    The more unlike like-things become.

    That is just something I have recognized since I was 8-14yr old.
    Pre chemo I could have narrowed it down to an age & month in my life.
    This is why academic analysis seemed so silly to me.

  163. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: If i remember correctly, the GF% wasn’t good but GA were the issue, not GF.

    Hitch fixed this!

    I have not found this.

    Drai without McDavid GA/60 from Jan 1st to end of year was 3.34. (43 games

    Beginning of the season till Jan 1st, Drai without McDavid the GA/60 was 2.7. (39 games

  164. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: he provides leadership,

    Gagner 2.0 plays like Bambi staring at headlights. His spirit’s been all but crushed as a hockey player, all he wants is the paycheck.

    Gagner provides little to next to nothing except pathos to the lineup.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Then you have no room for Tyler Johnson if he becomes available once Point is signed.

    As i said, greater chance of Brassard providing middle six or even real top 6 production unless, of course, its realistic to wait for Tyler Johnson to come available, the Oilers are able to afford the acquisition cost, the Oilers are able to afford the cap hit (even without Brassard acquired) and, of course, Johnson waives his full NTC to come to Edmonton.

  166. frjohnk says:

    hunter1909: Gagner 2.0 plays like Bambi staring at headlights. His spirit’s been all but crushed as a hockey player, all he wants is the paycheck.

    Gagner provides little to next to nothing except pathos to the lineup.

    Why you guys picking on Ganger?
    Gangar tries hard
    I happen to like Ganja

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer: Yes I have read this point of view on many occasions andI agree with most of it. I also don’t think we need to go all out and blow shit up like trading Hall or the 16th and 33rd picks for an unproven player playing in the minors.

    What I would like to see is a GM that can win a trade that makes the team better. Just because the last GM fucked things up royally doesn’t mean we should not try and make the team better without making those dumbass trades. Calgary did the opposite of what we did. Traded picks and improved their team big time. It can be done. Does that mean we sit tight and wait. I said as much in my above post that I would be okay if he waits to get the right deal before the season..I sure hope the team does notgo into the seaseon the way it is now..What I also have said in previous posts is the shame it will be to miss out on the playoff’s with CMD for yet another season.

    I know lot’s of people here are patient and willing to go another year of a lottery pick.. I just don’t want that to happen again. I’m not saying do dumb shit.. What I am saying is make a good trade that works for us for a change.

    After all the stupid shit that Chia did I can understand if Holland is weary of making a trade but a trade needs to happen.. Just the right one. We can have it both ways.. Trade for the right player and keep an eye on the future. I have seen other teams do this on a few occasions already this offseason..Unfortunately we weren’t one of them

    My post was not intended as an endorsement of Holland’s off-season – I didn’t expect much more but I did expect another way to open up some cap space other than buying out Sekera.

    My post was a retort to the position that Holland is the exact same as Chiarelli to this point.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: I have not found this.

    Drai without McDavid GA/60 from Jan 1st to end of year was 3.34.(43 games

    Beginning of the season till Jan 1st, Drai without McDavid the GA/60 was 2.7. (39 games

    Sure, in a half season sample size – as per your earlier post, Drai away from McDavid over three years was close to 2.20GF/60, wasn’t it?

  169. Ryan says:

    godot10: You can’t put Lucic in the AHL.#NMC.

    And you pressbox him because there will be 12 better forwards, you can’t sent him to the AHL, and you likely cannot trade him, and buying him out is worse salary cap wise than not buying him out.

    You’re wrong.

    The most opportune time to buy out Looch was with the Sekera buyout.

    That ship has unfortunately sailed.

    Buyout Looch and Sekera, thank Chaser for the 22 goals, now you’ve got some ‘walking around money’ to play poker with.

  170. Bulging Twine says:

    rickithebear:
    Bulging Twine:

    Goal Mass isphysics.

    Goal Mass ( total goals) = (shot density x shots/gm or shots/60) x total unit of time in gm or per 60.

    Shooting% is density.
    But fwds with superior open ( net space) High Danger ( High success by location penetration) density have a higher repeatable career shooting %.

    PDO would have you believe that players who repeatedly shoot in the high danger zone ( homeplate) at a higher % (Fwds) should Regress to the the same shooting % as players who repeatedly shoot in the low danger zone ( perimeter) at a high % forwards.

    That is the problem with PDO.
    It does not differentiate between players. Fwds & Dmen.
    It is a binary approach.

    When you look at average for forwards and dmen.
    Binary is anslysis is a low resolution anslysis.

    Think of pictures.
    Thumbnail is binary analysis.
    As you increase the multivariable Analysisyou are adding a higher resolution ( pixel count to the) picture. Game analysis.

    The higher the resolution the more clear ( correct) the results become.

    That is why Current binary theory requires the statement.
    Not enough sample size.
    Repetition of more data sets may cause more example of the expected theorem.
    But that is the worst case of false measure.

    The deeper the resolution of Analysis.
    The more unlike like-things become.

    That is just something I have recognized since I was 8-14yr old.
    Pre chemo I could have narrowed it down to an age & month in my life.
    This is why academic analysis seemed so silly to me.

    Thanks for the clear explanation.

    What you say on the differences in PDO and faulty regression expectations makes sense also the higher repeatable career SH% for those who have higher HD SH% (if i got that right).
    Is there a website to get individual slot or HD shots/game and SH%?
    One that breaks down individual shots to location?

  171. innercitysmytty says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the response. That all matches my understanding except the piece I don’t get is the bullet where you indicated that the off-season LTIR is more inefficient because there is nothing on Capfriendly that clearly articulates that. In what ways is it more inefficient or limiting?

  172. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, in a half season sample size – as per your earlier post, Drai away from McDavid over three years was close to 2.20GF/60, wasn’t it?

    2.14 GF/60
    3.05 GA/60
    41.2%

    Nothing here showing that he is driving a line.
    Also a 1.76pts/60 away from McDavid

    Dont get me wrong, I love Drai, I think he is a top player in the league, the issue I have is that we do not have the wingers to separate Drai and McDavid so we have two good lines.

    Away from each other and we have very poor 1st and 2nd lines.

    Together and they drag a guy like kassian, Chiasson up and their line can compete with trios like the Avs, Lightning and Bruins top lines.

    They are incredibly special together.

    Unless something rhymes with the wingers when they are apart, Im expecting to see Drai and mcDavid together for the majority of the year.

  173. Mr DeBakey says:

    Munny: What do you think your odds are next summer if you pressbox him for a year?

    The same as they are if he plays; very, very low

  174. rickithebear says:

    hunter1909:
    What chance does Raphael Lavoie have(if any)of cracking the top line out of training camp?

    Holland repeatedly states he likes his prospects to mature so they are ready for NHL.

    At the draft when a reporter asked Tippett if they needed to add More coaching beyond Playfair.
    Tippett thought the reporter was referring to adding players beyond what they had after the draft.
    “ He stated, I am sure we will add more.

    We had signed.
    Mcdavid C (22)12.5M
    Draisaitl LW, C, RW (23) 8.5M
    RNH C, LW (26) 6M
    Lucic LW (31) 6M
    Gagner RW (29) 3.15M
    Kassian RW (28) 1.95M
    ——————————— above have shown 2nd line Evg scoring in last 3 yrs.
    Brodziak C (35) 1.15M
    Nygard LW (26) .925M
    Cave C (24) .675M

    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    xxx – RNH – xxx
    Lucic – xxx – Gagner
    Khaira – Brodziak – xxx
    Cave – Nygaard

    We have waiting in the wing to compete for 4 spots with Cave & Nygard.
    Gambardella LW (25) .700M
    Maroody C, RW (22) .925M
    Benson LW (21) .808M
    Yamamoto RW (20) .894
    Mcleod C (19) .834

    Holland signs 3 2nd line even goal scoring pace wingers.
    Chiasson LW, RW (28) 2.15M top 40 PP goal production forward.
    Granlund RW, C (26) 1.3M opportunity at 3C, 1RW, & 2RW EVTOI.
    Jurco LW, RW (26) .75M

    And adds a veteran European Center.
    Haas C (27) .925M

    Now Holland likes veterans.
    Tippett stated we need to add.

    Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
    —————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds playing with 1st line centers.
    Lucic – Haas – Gagner
    Khaira – Brodziak – Jurco
    ————————————— All 4 above wingers are 2 Nd line fwds playing with 2nd line centers.
    Cave – Nygard

    Do any of the young prospects get past the established evg scoring Holland has brought in for Tippett.

  175. slopitch says:

    jp: Brassard looks like a bounce back candidate for sure.

    He’d averaged 50 points a season (none less than 39) in the 5 years previous to last. And even if he doesn’t bounce back his 23 points last season would have put him in the Oilers top 6.

    It all depends on the price.

    Brassard is 31 and was a complete drag on both Pittsburgh and Colorado. He may be a bounceback candidate but so was Spooner. I believe the Oilers should aim higher or keep their powder dry.

  176. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
    —————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds

    Draisaitl yes

    The others not even close.

  177. Bulging Twine says:

    The NYI improved by 23 points last season under coach Barry Trotz.

    One contributing factor may be the stability of FW lines.

    There were 21 lines in the NHL last season that played more than 400 minutes together.

    3 of those lines belonged to the Islanders.

    Did the Oilers have one of those 21 lines?
    No

    Of the 35 lines that played over 300 minutes together did the Oilers have any?
    No

    The line that played the most together was Drai – McDavid – Kass
    They played 284 minutes.

    Followed by Drai – McDavid – Chiasson at 247

    Then Chiasson – Draisatl – Rieder at 206

    which shows there were no set lines.

    In other news. Corsica’s website is wonky!

  178. rickithebear says:

    Bulging Twine:

    Some of the many people on here, who I enjoy and respect their perspective, are still at a novice level of analysis.

    Anyone listing GA As a measure for forward should be thought of as novice.

    You want to know the % of pocession faced that the forwards provide a dman an opportunity to press the blue.
    NZ traps and controlled zone/man to man coverage greatly reduces the success of high speed transition passing that requires dmen to collapse to the HD area.
    It allows greater entry rate and corsi count.

    But Dmen establish the (open HD sh save% baseline) per corsi the goalies must face.
    Goalies establish a +ve/-ve Open HD save% compared to the expected.

    That makes the 2D-1G structure quality of performances relative to open HD SH save% established (dmen) & performed (Goalie) per corsi that dictates GA.

    That is why
    – forward NZ trap & zone/ man to man transition coverage ( High entry/ corsi)
    – Rover HD abandonment to 1D-1G (high open HD save% baseline)
    A higher resolution analysis has seperated positional causal value.

  179. Mr DeBakey says:

    rickithebear: Mcdavid C (22)12.5M
    Draisaitl LW, C, RW (23) 8.5M
    RNH C, LW (26) 6M
    Lucic LW (31) 6M
    Gagner RW (29) 3.15M
    Kassian RW (28) 1.95M
    ——————————— above have shown 2nd line Evg scoring in last 3 yrs.

    Well, except for Lucic, Gagner & Kassian.
    Tho’ Kassian is close. Really close.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: You’re wrong.

    The most opportune time to buy out Looch was with the Sekera buyout.

    That ship has unfortunately sailed.

    Buyout Looch and Sekera, thank Chaser for the 22 goals, now you’ve got some ‘walking around money’ to play poker with.

    Thank goodness that ship has sailed because a buyout of Lucic is a horrible idea:

    2019-20: $3,625,000
    2020-21: $5,625,000
    2021-22: $4,125,000
    2022-23: $5,625,000

    Even with being replaced with an NHL minimum salary player, the buyout adds to the cap in years 2, and 4 (and 5-8).

    $2.3M for this coming up season and $1.8M in 2021/22 is worth the pain in the other 6 years, really?

  181. Buddy says:

    To go back to LT’s comments about Bob Green, I’m not sure that that many people view him as the main culprit in the Reinhart trade, but they certainly do see him as one of the culprits.

    Green’s problem is that he expressed his views publicly, and they summarized exactly what went wrong — nobody followed up on Reinhart (well, that plus Snow played Chiarelli like a violin). So that makes Green a target (and to a degree, rightly so, in my mind).

    I’m way more disturbed by the fact that no one else took ownership of that whole fiasco. There’s no way Chiarelli cooked that one up on his own, that has the OBC’s sticky fingers all over it, but not one of them was man enough to admit to it.

    It was Chiarelli’s single worst move, he never really recovered from it, and every single one of the OBC was willing to let him take all the heat for four years.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    innercitysmytty:
    OriginalPouzar,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the response. That all matches my understanding except the piece I don’t get is the bullet where you indicated that the off-season LTIR is more inefficient because there is nothing on Capfriendly that clearly articulates that. In what ways is it more inefficient or limiting?

    If off-season LTIR is used in order to get compliant – there will be no ability to add another player to the roster in replacement of the player placed on LTIR. If Horton is placed on LTIR in the off-season get compliant, boom they’ve maxed out their LTIR relief cushion the moment he’s on LTIR and there isn’t an ability to go over the cap.

  183. defmn says:

    A couple more wingers hit the trade market due to cap crunch. I expect more as the summer progresses.

    //However, as Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post notes, they are looking at the trade market as well and have made wingers Vladislav Namestnikov and Pavel Buchnevich available.//

  184. SamGunsch says:

    Prediction: Nygaard is going to kill it on RNH’s line.

  185. flyfish1168 says:

    Buddy:
    To go back to LT’s comments about Bob Green, I’m not sure that that many people view him as the main culprit in the Reinhart trade, but they certainly do see him as one of the culprits.

    Green’s problem is that he expressed his views publicly, and they summarized exactly what went wrong — nobody followed up on Reinhart (well, that plus Snow played Chiarelli like a violin). So that makes Green a target (and to a degree, rightly so, in my mind).

    I’m way more disturbed by the fact that no one else took ownership of that whole fiasco. There’s no way Chiarelli cooked that one up on his own, that has the OBC’s sticky fingers all over it, but not one of them was man enough to admit to it.

    It was Chiarelli’s single worst move, he never really recovered from it, and every single one of the OBC was willing to let him take all the heat for four years.

    The worst part of the whole thing was watching PC sit at the table and acted the smartest man in the room.

  186. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: – if Toronto didn’t have Horton, it would be ALOT easier to get Marner under contract without all the dispositions they have had to do – but they need to be cap compliant with Horton on day 1.

    Theoretically, the Leafs could just sign Marner on day 2 right?

    I have no idea what the numbers look like, but the Leafs could have 22 players on the roster plus Joe Blow AHL guy who has a cap hit of $750k on the 1st day.

    Then after the 1st day, maybe a few days or whatever sign Marner and demote Joe Blow.

    Just have a handshake agreement behind the scenes while having a bunch of leaked rumors that have no substance to misdirect from the real plan to fit in under the cap and use the LTIR to its fullest.

  187. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Draisaitl yes

    The others not even close.

    Holy crap do you ever sound like those delusional social justice warriors.
    A constructive Narative can be Bull shit.

    Especially the safe place Psycho’s

    I am High function Autistic.
    My disability is protected under the Human Rights Code.

    Over the last 25 years.
    Evolutionary biologic Psychological study has mapped the brain.
    Identified evolutionary chemistry that drives emotions.

    When Social justice warriors Say things as if they are true with out biological or evolutionary proof.
    That unsupported constructionist approach is counter to my disabilities needs.
    That intentionally infringes on the protection provided to me by the human rights code.

    So the point.

    Frjohn!

    Their are three forms of structure for a team.

    Power Play: advantage. Largely in opps dz.
    Even: equal. Can be in any zone.
    PK: disadvantage. Largely in our dz.

    Each has their standard of player.
    PP1 Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Chaisson, RNH; PP2
    1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
    PK1 Khaira, Brodziak; PK2

    Even play is 80% of game TOI and the only one all forwards will play in a game.
    Even play is the only play were top 3 1st, top 6 2nd, top 9 3rd, top 12 4th. Is differentiated.

    8 Evg is the starting point for being a top 6 (2nd line) goal scoring winger at even play.
    That is the standard over the last 3 years.

    This is one of the very few Binary analytics resolution level analysis that is true.

    Sorry buddy but spouting per60 numbers without a deep level of resolution in multivariable Analysis serves no value.

    Please do not try to woke me with an inaccurate unsupported constructionist narrative like all the woke social justice warriors try to do.

    High resolution analysis says valuation of a player by pts leads to overpay on most fwds who are less efficient goal production per pocession players.

    This is facts!

    Though Being a top GA team reduces the efficiency shock of passing over shooting.

    Not me trying to woke you!

    PS: if I was going to woke you it would be grayling fishing in a freighter canoe down the Churchill river.

  188. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m only interested in a one-year deal and I would got up to close to $3M in order to get him under contract (as opposed to PTO which doesn’t stop him from signing with any other team).

    Is that way too much (keeping in mind just a one-year risk)?

    Yeah maybe too much. I have no idea what he’s asking or other teams are offering, but I was thinking the price might come down to ~$2M at some point.

    If you’re going to blow your whole wad in one place you want to be fairly sure about it. Otherwise you can wait for other cap casualties as Godot keeps telling us.

  189. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, Neal was awful last year, almost Lucic level awful (although I don’t think he showed an ability to take a pass from the d-man at the blue line and move the puck up the ice).

    With that said, yes, I think the gap is that big:

    – its been one year for Neal and 3 (not 2) for Lucic. Recall his 5 on 5 P/60 were actually better in year 2 than year 1 – he’s been a replacement level offensive producer at 5 on 5 for 3 years.

    – Neal’s contract is MILES better than Lucic’s – no trade protection (expansion draft risk even though I’m somewhat confident Lucic would waive) and no signing bonus structure allowing a “reasonable” buy out.

    ————

    To be clear, I wouldn’t trade a first to do it but I think that’s the general amount of pain it would cost.

    I’m still not so sure. I agree with you the Lucic drop came 3 seasons ago and he hasn’t produced at evens at any point with the Oilers.

    On the surface though, he did score 50 points that year and 34 the 2nd. Neal scored 41 and 44. Overall boxcars for the 3 years are:
    Lucic 243-39-65-104 -24
    Neal 204-55-49-104 -26

    Even if teams are looking at 5 on 5 scoring rates the gap isn’t that huge:
    Lucic 1.21, 1.30, 0.97
    Neal 1.47, 1.75, 0.99

    Plus Lucic is a heavyweight who’s 3rd in the NHL in hits over the same span.

    While I clearly prefer Neal, I’m not convinced the actual difference in value between the two is a 1st. And I’m hopeful that other valuations of Lucic might be more favourable than that.

  190. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    You are saying that Granlund, Kassian and Chiasson are all top line wingers

    rickithebear: Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
    —————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds playing with 1st line centers.

    What numbers are you using here for these 3 guys to be in the top 62 wingers?

    rickithebear: Lucic – Haas – Gagner
    Khaira – Brodziak – Jurco
    ————————————— All 4 above wingers are 2 Nd line fwds playing with 2nd line centers.

    Lucic, Gagner, Khaira, Jurco are all in the top 124 wingers in the game?

    So to recap, from your numbers we have
    – two 1st lines
    and
    -two 2nd lines

  191. Andy Dufresne says:

    Draisaitl McDavid Kassian
    Benson RNH Chaisson
    Granlund Brassard Eriksson
    Nygard Khaira Gagner
    Marody

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Bouchard
    Jones Benning
    Russell Persson

    Koskinen / Smith

    97pts
    Good for 8th place in the West.

  192. JimmyV1965 says:

    blainer:
    I find it odd how many here have Nygard over Haas. Haas is a RT shot center and Holland has tried to sign him in the past as well. My gut tells me he makes the team ahead of Nygard.

    The problem with this is.. are we really counting on these guys to improve this team and make the playoff’s?

    Add to that .. F**cking Granlund.. the next version of an old Jussi Jokinen.. would much rather have that money spent on Sheehan or someone who can play decent on the PK. Holland has done zip to help this team other than not sign a dumb contract. I feel we are going to be extremely disappointed with this GM. Hopefully he proves me wrong by training camp as there are a few teams that will be looking to trade once they get their RFA’s signed but I have my doubts based on the deals he already missed out on.

    IMO so far Holland has proven to be no better than Chia.This team as it stands now is a Connor McDavid injury away from finishing 31st.

    If these are the best lineup’s we can come up with we will need a goaltending miracle. Odds are I won’t watch anymore than the first three losses in a row to start the season.

    I will come here though for my entertainment as it will be one hell of a shit show.

    And believe it or not I’m usually always optimistic on everything Oil but after this offseason I have finally lost hope in this team.

    I do reserve the right though to jump back on the bandwagon should such a goaltending miracle occur !!

    Ya. Looking at everyone’s lineup projections is depressing to say the least. Let’s put JP on the first line, or Khaira, or Granlund, or one of the Euros. It just doesn’t matter. None of them are legit top six forwards. I’m not expecting Holland to make this a playoff team in six months. But failing to add one good player is just that – an abject failure. However, there’s still time and there will be an unusual amount of player movement across the NHL this summer. I’ll reserve judgement for now.

  193. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s amazing how many people want Holland to come in guns blazing
    Cause it worked out so well for the last guy

    What I would like to see the GM do is add one good player this year. It’s not a big ask. Because we’re Oiler fans, this moderate approach seems almost impossible because we’ve been conditioned by years of awful management. Again, I reserve judgement on Holland.

  194. jp says:

    Mr DeBakey: Well, except for Lucic, Gagner & Kassian.
    Tho’ Kassian is close. Really close.

    I think he means “at some point” in the last 3 years. Lucic and Gagner were 158th and 172nd in 5on5 goals in 16-17. Kassian was 142nd this season.

    Jurco mystified me for a while, but he was 106th in G/60 in 17-18 (5 in 29 games – 0.86/60). I’m not sure there’s any value at all to that though as his career rate (0.49/60) is more like a 4th liner.

  195. Bulging Twine says:

    rickithebear:
    Bulging Twine:

    Some of the many people on here, who I enjoy and respect their perspective, are still at a novice level of analysis.

    Anyone listing GA As a measure for forward should be thought of as novice.

    You want to know the % of pocession faced that the forwards provide a dman an opportunity to press the blue.
    NZ traps and controlled zone/man to man coverage greatly reduces the success of high speed transition passing that requires dmen to collapse to the HD area.
    It allows greater entry rate and corsi count.

    But Dmen establish the (open HD sh save% baseline) per corsi the goalies must face.
    Goalies establish a +ve/-ve Open HD save% compared to the expected.

    That makes the 2D-1G structure quality of performances relative to open HD SH save% established (dmen) & performed (Goalie) per corsithat dictates GA.

    That is why
    – forward NZ trap & zone/ man to man transition coverage ( High entry/ corsi)
    – Rover HD abandonment to 1D-1G (high open HD save% baseline)
    A higher resolution analysis has seperated positional causalvalue.

    So you’re saying that coaching and systems have more to do with a FW’s GA/60 rate than does the individual FW.
    The differences in GA/60 rates for the NYI FW’s from 17-18 to 18-19 would agree with you!

    Within a team’s FW group do you value relative GA/60 rates? What do those rates mean to you?

  196. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Good grief.
    No one is accounting for Sam Gagner at more than $3M on the cap.
    A huge drag on team building.

    Poor Sam. I hope he hangs in the top 6 and manages 40 points. (acknowledging that he will almost certainly overpaid)

  197. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    8 Evg is the starting point for being a top 6 (2nd line) goal scoring winger at even play.
    That is the standard over the last 3 years.

    This is one of the very fewBinary analytics resolution level analysis that is true.

    This has been bothering me because it isn’t actually quite true.

    Combining the past 3 seasons the #186 forward scored 27 goals (12 players were tied actually). All but the last 4 of the 186 scored 28 or more. If you take actual EVG, the #186 forward scored 31. So 9-10 goals on average.

    The number is generally higher if you look at a single season.

    16-17 5on5 – 9, EVG – 10
    17-18 5on5 – 9, EVG – 11
    18-19 5on5 – 10, EVG – 12

    So if one were to actually use EVG (vs 5on5), and this past season’s cutoffs, neither Gagner or Lucic has been at top 6 EVG scorer in any of the past 3 seasons.

  198. jp says:

    frjohnk: 2.14 GF/60
    3.05 GA/60
    41.2%

    Nothing here showing that he is driving a line.
    Also a 1.76pts/60 away from McDavid

    Dont get me wrong, I love Drai, I think he is a top player in the league, the issue I have is that we do not have the wingers to separate Drai and McDavid so we have two good lines.

    Away from each other and we have very poor 1st and 2nd lines.

    Together and they drag a guy like kassian, Chiasson up and their line can compete with trios like the Avs, Lightning and Bruins top lines.

    They are incredibly special together.

    Unless something rhymes with the wingers when they are apart, Im expecting to see Drai and mcDavid together for the majority of the year.

    McDavid and Draisaitl were terrible without each other last season. But FWIW, McDavid at least was able to carry lines without Draisaitl the previous 2 seasons.

    16-17 and 17-18 GF%
    McDavid with Draisaitl: 58.5%
    McDavid w/out Draisaitl: 60.9%
    Draisaitl w/out McDavid: 43.1%

    I’m not going to try to break down who exactly those minutes were with, but his main wingers and GF% were (everyone over 200min):
    Maroon 57.9%
    Draisaitl 58.5%
    Lucic 60.8%
    Eberle 62.5%
    Puljujarvi 67.7%
    Nuge 65.4%
    Caggiula 51.6%

    There is hope! For McDavid at least.

    At that said, I do we’ll see the two play together this year for the most part.

  199. ArmchairGM says:

    jeetz:
    Forget the 3C idea.

    McD and Drai 20-22 min/ night

    GET RNH A TRUE TOP 6WINGER BY CHRISTMAS!!! (not named PJ, Benson or Yamo)

    RNH plus XXX 16-17 min a night

    Sign Boyle to a PTO and run a Veteran 3rdline of

    Chaisson Boyle Granlund 12-14 min a night

    have Lucic Khaira + one other as a 4th line 10 min a night

    You have Kassian, Jurco, Nygard, JP, Gagner, Haas to fill out 4 positions…1 top winger, 1 second line winger, 1 4th line winger and the 13th fwd

    Finding a true winger for RNH is critical for our success and probably to having RNH resign as an Oiler

    Great plan, too bad Holland hasn’t followed it. One of Connolly or Dzingel would have gone a long way to icing a competitive 2nd line next year.

    Who’s left in UFA? Pominville?

  200. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: He made no commitments for after the 20-21 season.Which is all I wanted from him other than bring a Boyle Brassard or Pominville or such for one year that we could trade at the deadline for a pick.
    Wasn’t excited about Smith but it’s one year and this team is not competing this year

    Commitments are not a bad thing if you choose your partner carefully. Nobody was espousing a 5 year deal for a 30-something player, but 4 years for the right 27 year old at decent money would have gone a long way to improving the roster going forward. As it stands, the roster hasn’t improved 1 iota.

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