Before They Make Me Run

Peter Chiarelli botched the McDavid cluster pretty good and that’s for sure. However, I learned something important from Earl and Dorrel a long time ago: There’s more than one way to build a winner.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • New Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • New Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • New Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
  • New Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

THE MCDAVID CLUSTER

I pay attention to clusters, because a balanced team will get a lot from the inexpensive kids, the prime group and the aged veterans. McDavid’s cluster is the goods, but needs more than two primary contributors. Here are the numbers over the years for the McDavid cluster:

2015-16: 301 games, 46-90-136 .452

2016-17: 236 games, 65-131-196 .831

2017-18: 334 games, 85-146-231 .692

2018-19: 253 games, 98-141-239 .945

This is a fabulous cluster, but less than optimal. Jesse Puljujarvi isn’t part of the group at the anticipated level, while Kailer Yamamoto was rushed and is now an injury worry. Still, an enormous contribution in 2018-19. Oilers scored 229 goals, this cluster 98 goals. The veteran and elder clusters did not deliver.

Anticipated surges and additions to the cluster: Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear. It’s an impressive group, but several need to impact in the coming season. Evan Bouchard is going to blow the RH side of the defense out of the water, the only question is when.

THE PRIME CLUSTER

Some big pieces here, including Nuge and all three heart and soul defensemen. If Khaira and Benning and one or two more could take that next step, the team would benefit a great deal.

2015-16: 584 games, 85-131-216 .370

2016-17: 507 games, 72-123-195 .385

2017-18: 651 games, 95-130-225 .346

2018-19: 687 games, 70-169-239 .348

A power outage since Hall and Eberle were sent away, I think Holland will try to re-sign Nuge, Klefbom and Larsson when the contracts retire. Nurse? Man, that Trouba contract is going to hurt negotiations. A two-year stutter offensively for this cluster, and this year Nuge delivered solid production.

Anticipated surges and additions to the cluster: Khaira and Benning could flourish under Tippett. William Lagesson can defend, Edmonton needs a replacement for Russell and possibly Larsson in the coming days. I think Joel Persson has a clear shot at an NHL job. Shane Starrett is a name to remember. Logan Day is a distant (and possibly unanswered) bell.

THE VETERAN CLUSTER

Holland’s veterans traditionally shoulder a great deal of the load, I’ll look forward to stronger numbers one year from now.

2015-16: 611 games, 68-190-258 .422

2016-17: 560 games, 65-148-213 .380

2017-18: 439 games, 43-104-147 .335

2018-19: 542 games, 61-73-134 .247

This is Holland’s playground, the greybeards. Among the additions to this group are pretty much every player the new general manager acquired.

Anticipated surges and additions to the cluster: Mikko Koskinen is a candidate to step forward with better usage, Mike Smith has a prominent roster spot and a history of insane streaks. James Neal has the potential to be the biggest addition of summer, while Markus Granlund needs to be the most consistent. I like the Josh Archibald bet, although it means happy trails to JP. Joakim Nygard, Tomas Jurco, Gaetan Haas could all have an impact. I like Gambardella’s chances. Josh Currie is easy to pass over, but has a great deal of utility (including being RH).

I think we’ll see a change in roster construction over the coming two or three years, the roster will get older, faster and more experienced. I’m very much hoping Holland won’t do what every general manager since Kevin Lowe has done: Trade away players in their mid-to-late 20’s even though there are many years of quality ahead. I don’t think Holland can afford all three of Nuge, Larsson and Nurse but he needs to grab Nuge and one blue imo. All three if he can make it work.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, it’s going to be a wild show. TSN1260, we’ll have Derek Van Diest on at 10:20 to talk about the Milan Lucic experience and what James Neal can bring. Jason Gregor pops by at 11 to discuss Ken Holland’s first summer as Oilers general manager. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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252 Responses to "Before They Make Me Run"

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  1. kgo says:

    I hope Holland is speaking with Nurse’s agent early and often….me thinks his value only climbs as the year progresses…

  2. Revolved says:

    LT, your Earl and Dorrel reference has stumped Google. Clearly you are still in the running for earth’s greatest knowledge database.

  3. Philosophil says:

    I believe the newly drafted Russian goalie has a a non zero chance to be a part if the McDavid cluster at some point, but still under contract in the K for this year
    Fair to say PC was or created a cluster F^ck?

  4. Nit64 says:

    Revolved:
    LT, your Earl and Dorrel reference has stumped Google. Clearly you are still in the running for earth’s greatest knowledge database.

    Earl Weaver and “Whitey” Herzog

  5. bwar says:

    Only one list truly matters for the McDavid cluster, singles released. Cooper Marody 1, Everyone else 0. Dude is gonna be the next Bieber.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    Nurses agent is probably going to try to use Trouba as comparable
    He needs to come a long way in his own end for me to give him 7-8 mil a year
    Where he’s at right now I would trade him

  7. leadfarmer says:

    I’m interested to see what Smith has left.
    His career has had stretches of greatness followed by injury followed by subpar play (and repeat)
    I’ve liked him in the past but he turns 38 this year and at best is a one year patch job

  8. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I had this “thought” yesterday and then when I read yesterday’s thread it was mentioned: Balance is coming into view.

    A ways to go still, but key pieces (at least on paper)…are starting to reveal themselves one star at a time.

    It will be interesting to see which permutations of this roster provide the best chemistry on the ice in the Fall of 2019. There is hope.

  9. leadfarmer says:

    He is a well known goalie
    Hopefully he has a good season and is flipped for a decent pick at the deadline

  10. hunter1909 says:

    MacT/Chiarelli from the school of buy high sell lowe…

    Holland from the closest thing to a Dynasty since Oilers ruled the waves.

    It seems like Holland’s schooling Lowetide posters this summer.

    Nurse, smursh he’s not proven jack so far and if they’re honest they’ll admit it. Holland isn’t going to cave, so there’s that.

  11. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – There is a good piece in the Athletic on Lucic v Neal

    – It’s strictly a math analysis: but there is no doubt that Lucic is the better player by all measures that are valued in this blog in terms of fancy stats. Not even close

    – Basically, hope that Neal will score more to make up for his awful, eroding possession numbers

    – The change of scenery is good for both, and the analysis doesn’t include the less costly buy-out of Neal vs Lucic, and no protection, both significant wins

    – Deal might end up working out well if Neal can score some goals, but don’t get sucked into the narrative about “coming into camp in best shape of life”, etc

    – The likely scenario is Neal isn’t effective, and gets bought out in a year.

    – Hope for more of course, and I’m not critical of deal, it’s a good move: I’m just tempering reality

    * but the chance that Neal rebounds and scores 25+, all the while unloading Lucic’s contract makes Holland GM of the year. That alone is worth it, and if it happens, its a massive delta for team

  12. defmn says:

    Granlund, Jurco, Archibald, Nygard all 26 years old. Haas 27 and Chaisson 28.

    Holland has brought in a lot of guys in the heart of their career. Most won’t make it or last more than a year but he filled in the middle cluster this summer.

  13. Ben says:

    If Neal, Smith, Larsson, Khaira, Brodziak, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto ALL have ‘bounce back’ years, this team has a chance! Tippett will need a batch of flubber.

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Neal has been a strongly negative player for last 3 years on good-very good teams.
    He will score more than Lucic but he will more than give that up the other way
    We will get to buy him out in a year which we will get rid of Lucic for less than 3 mil a year which is fine by me

  15. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – There is a good piece in the Athletic on Lucic v Neal

    – It’s strictly a math analysis: but there is no doubt that Lucic is the better player by all measures that are valued in this blog in terms of fancy stats.Not even close

    – Basically, hope that Neal will score more to make up for his awful, eroding possession numbers

    – The change of scenery is good for both, and the analysis doesn’t include the less costly buy-out of Neal vs Lucic, and no protection, both significant wins

    – Deal might end up working out well if Neal can score some goals, but don’t get sucked into the narrative about “coming into camp in best shape of life”, etc

    – The likely scenario is Neal isn’t effective, and gets bought out in a year.

    – Hope for more of course, and I’m not critical of deal, it’s a good move: I’m just tempering reality

    Yeah, I think the only question that matters with Neal is his shot. If he can still shoot the puck then the Oilers win the trade on the ice as well as in the capologist’s office. If last year is the new normal then the Flames made a reasonable trade from their perspective.

    I don’t think Neal’s value as a hockey player has ever depended on much other than his ability to bury the puck. Fifteen to twenty goals and I will be happy.

  16. blainer says:

    Really looking forward to seeing who we get for JP. I really like that KH is taking his time on this. After the Lucic trade I have a ton of confidence in him as opposed to before that trade was made.

    I would love to have JP back but I do think if we can swap him for someone like Zacha or Ek I think it could work out for both teams with struggling players getting new starts..ala Dylan Strome.

  17. Coiler says:

    hunter1909:
    MacT/Chiarelli from the school of buy high sell lowe…

    Holland from the closest thing to a Dynasty since Oilers ruled the waves.

    It seems like Holland’s schooling Lowetide posters this summer.

    Nurse, smursh he’s not proven jack so far and if they’re honest they’ll admit it. Holland isn’t going to cave, so there’s that.

    I agree wholeheartedly. I like Nurse as a player and what he brings to the team. I wish he would show his feisty side a little more because I think he can be a real intimidating SOB when he wants to be but in my mind he hasn’t taken that ‘next step’ yet.

    Though this has been a small sample size, Holland has shown his mettle in his negotiations with free agents and his trade thus far, I like his approach. I’m not against Nurse making a great sum of money, but 7 million (and above) for what he has shown so far is not likely to happen with Holland.

    I would imagine this Oiler team will have a bit more a bounce to their step coming out of the gate this year for a few reasons;

    1) They’re going to have a new, more communicative coach.
    2) A goal scoring vet who has something to prove in Neal.
    3) A few hungry kids who want to prove their worth (on the wings and defence potentially).

    I really like the idea that every season brings about a surprise that no one anticipated. Last year it was Chaisson as no one really expected him to score like he did. This year I’d like to see one of the kids staple themselves to McDavid’s wing and light the league up.

  18. godot10 says:

    Revolved:
    LT, your Earl and Dorrel reference has stumped Google. Clearly you are still in the running for earth’s greatest knowledge database.

    Earl Weaver. And Whitey Herzog

    Earl Weaver. The 3-run homer and pitching.
    Whitey Herzog. Walks, stolen bases, defense, advancing the runners, pitching.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    There are many ways to build a winner indeed.

    There are varoius different opinions on how Oiler management should proceed.

    Some believe that more could/should have been done this season to push things forward immediately – patience has worn thin, McDavid is “being wasted”, etc.

    Others believe that Holland is doing a fine job with the hand he was played knowing that there is only so much that can be done and are happy that cap issues are being shed.

    Personally, I am in group 2 – sure I would love to have added some more material players this off-season as opposed to “OK bets”, however, if given the choice to lock in with a Connolly/Nyquist/Dzingel type player at $3.5M to $5M for term and not have that cap space available next season for, in my opinion, a more substantial player, I choose the keep the currency approach.

    None of those contracts are bad or unreasonable in isolation (although Nyquist is close to regression years), but I would prefer that cap currency to be saved as those are marginal players that I don’t think move the needle too much.

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909:
    MacT/Chiarelli from the school of buy high sell lowe…

    Holland from the closest thing to a Dynasty since Oilers ruled the waves.

    It seems like Holland’s schooling Lowetide posters this summer.

    Nurse, smursh he’s not proven jack so far and if they’re honest they’ll admit it. Holland isn’t going to cave, so there’s that.

    Don’t lump us all together. Some of us had hope that Holland wasn’t on holiday after July 1st and more would be done.

    Still another shoe to drop with JP as well

  21. defmn says:

    godot10: Earl Weaver.And Whitey HerzogDo I get a prize?

    Participation prize only. 😉

    NIT64 beat both of us to the answer.

  22. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurses agent is probably going to try to use Trouba as comparable
    He needs to come a long way in his own end for me to give him 7-8 mil a year
    Where he’s at right now I would trade him

    Trading Nurse is almost as bad a move as trading McDavid would be, because McDavid would probably ask for a trade if you traded Nurse.

    McDavid doesn’t want to start over again. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse. That is the core. Trade one, and you are going backwards.

  23. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Don’t lump us all together. Some of us had hope that Holland wasn’t on holiday after July 1st and more would be done.

    Still another shoe to drop with JP as well

    Ha ha Holland has lots of shoes all over the place.

    edit: “It seems like Holland’s schooling certain Lowetide posters this summer”.

  24. godot10 says:

    hunter1909:
    MacT/Chiarelli from the school of buy high sell lowe…

    Holland from the closest thing to a Dynasty since Oilers ruled the waves.

    It seems like Holland’s schooling Lowetide posters this summer.

    Nurse, smursh he’s not proven jack so far and if they’re honest they’ll admit it. Holland isn’t going to cave, so there’s that.

    Nurse can go to arbitration and get over $6 million. And go to arbitration the year after that to get to UFA status.

    Offer him 8 x $7 million, and call it a day. It will be a bargain contract.

  25. hunter1909 says:

    I hope they double shift gagner when they meet up with Lucic’s bad tempered Flames posse next December unless Lucic falls off the edge of the world immediately, like he’s been doing for 2-3 seasons now.

    gagner might have another 8 point night.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer,

    defmn,

    – Yeah the “coup” is in kicking the can down the road in terms of the liability of a long-term contract being negative to the team’s cap, and creating more outs

    – The “projections” I had been reading about Neal and where he fits: might happen, but theres’ a reason why this trade got done: they are both very very over paid for what they bring and trendline

    – I’m not critical of the move, just putting pause to the euphoria of trade from a Hockey perspective.

    – Buy out in a year for cheaper, vs we got our 20 goal scorer, what a steal this

  27. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – There is a good piece in the Athletic on Lucic v Neal

    – It’s strictly a math analysis: but there is no doubt that Lucic is the better player by all measures that are valued in this blog in terms of fancy stats.Not even close

    – Basically, hope that Neal will score more to make up for his awful, eroding possession numbers

    – The change of scenery is good for both, and the analysis doesn’t include the less costly buy-out of Neal vs Lucic, and no protection, both significant wins

    – Deal might end up working out well if Neal can score some goals, but don’t get sucked into the narrative about “coming into camp in best shape of life”, etc

    – The likely scenario is Neal isn’t effective, and gets bought out in a year.

    – Hope for more of course, and I’m not critical of deal, it’s a good move: I’m just tempering reality

    * but the chance that Neal rebounds and scores 25+, all the while unloading Lucic’s contract makes Holland GM of the year.That alone is worth it, and if it happens, its a massive delta for team

    Neal is a shooter. That is all he has ever done. Others have to push the river, while he lies in the back of the canoe waiting for someone to pass him the puck.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of talk over the last few months about buying out Gagner or moving Gagner for cap savings.

    I get it, he likely is overpaid at $3M (and change).

    At the same time, he produced at solid rates as an Oiler last year and, without looking, I don’t think he had elite linemates.

    Nope, Sam is not the perfect player, he has some defensive issues, not a great skater, doesn’t PK, etc. At the same time, he is versatile and can play up and down the lineup, he has skill and vision, he is good on the PP and, for a team devoid of secondary and tertiary scoring, I think he can be a very useful piece this season. I’m not positive that he won’t be darn close to value for $3M this year given current NHL salary structure.

  29. Nit64 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Still another shoe to drop with JP as well

    ~ The other shoe is Kenny giving JP a choice between being traded to play with Lucic or to stay in Edmonton. ~

  30. blainer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – There is a good piece in the Athletic on Lucic v Neal

    – It’s strictly a math analysis: but there is no doubt that Lucic is the better player by all measures that are valued in this blog in terms of fancy stats.Not even close

    – Basically, hope that Neal will score more to make up for his awful, eroding possession numbers

    – The change of scenery is good for both, and the analysis doesn’t include the less costly buy-out of Neal vs Lucic, and no protection, both significant wins

    – Deal might end up working out well if Neal can score some goals, but don’t get sucked into the narrative about “coming into camp in best shape of life”, etc

    – The likely scenario is Neal isn’t effective, and gets bought out in a year.

    – Hope for more of course, and I’m not critical of deal, it’s a good move: I’m just tempering reality

    * but the chance that Neal rebounds and scores 25+, all the while unloading Lucic’s contract makes Holland GM of the year.That alone is worth it, and if it happens, its a massive delta for team

    It’s hard to square Lucic’s possession numbers for me. I know the math shows him good in that metric which surprises me a lot as he just looked like a give away machine the last couple of years. Could not take or make a pass while always giving the puck up on our own blueline.

    IMO this is a player where the numbers just don’t add up to the eye test and i bet a lot of posters here agree with that.

    As for Neal. They have to play a defensive minded forward with him whatever line he is on and hopefully our D can step it up for everyone this year.

    IF Neal gets large amounts of time with CMD I think he scores 30 plus goals.

  31. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide said: “Peter Chiarelli botched the McDavid cluster pretty good and that’s for sure.”

    We can argue he botched the Hall cluster too. :\

  32. HT Joe says:

    blainer: It’s hard to square Lucic’s possession numbers for me. I know the math shows him good in that metric which surprises me a lot as he just looked like a give away machine the last couple of years. Could not take or make a pass while always giving the puck up on our own blueline.

    How much of Lucic’s good numbers is the result of playing with one of McDavid, Draisatl, or RNH for the majority of his time in Edmonton? I agree that he didn’t look good by eye at playing hockey.

  33. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Deal might end up working out well if Neal can score some goals, but don’t get sucked into the narrative about “coming into camp in best shape of life”, etc

    Do you put any stock in playing in the Cup Finals for two years in a row having an impact on Neal’s offseason training?

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    blainer: It’s hard to square Lucic’s possession numbers for me.
    IF Neal gets large amounts of time with CMD I think he scores 30 plus goals.

    – That’s the thing I find interesting: numbers are one of the tenents of many on this blog, yet they were thrown out the door when analyzing the relative merits of the deal

    – Re 30 goals: I think there are many many players who could score 30 with McD (even moreso if no Drai on the other wing, getting the majority of feeds)

    – Anyway hope it works out, and Neal scores a bunch, and we live with his slow boots, and poor play away from the puck that is getting worse: that’s the best case scenario, a massive win

  35. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Do you put any stock in playing in the Cup Finals for two years in a row having an impact on Neal’s offseason training?

    – Sure : good narrative: plus he’s coming back in the best shape of his life. Might be some truth

    – He could score a lot, and last year could be the outlier, and he will have a rebound, and playing with a Conner will help…But he’s really bad without the puck, and getting worse and slower

    – That’s all I got: No idea if will score 25: Really hope so. It was a good transaction regardless. More than a buy-out next year is bonus massive win IMO: that’s my set of expectations

  36. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    A) its CONNOR. For the love of Gord, man! -OR. ;P

    B) My bet is on the rebound. Willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Plus, Neal’s doing the right things to put himself in the best spot to succeed — hungry attitude/chip on shoulder, training with Connor. Regarding decline, if he is trying to do offensive things like score goals and the puck goes the wrong way, I’m willing to cut him more slack than being behind the play and treating the puck like a grenade, every damn time. I value offence, and let’s face it: Lucic was a black hole, possession stats be damned.

    Lucic came into camp in the best shape of his life two years in a row. Didn’t help his hands one iota. Meanwhile, Lucic is in year three of his decline and it’s his first year with a skills coach.

    As mentioned, if Neal stinks this year, we buy him out and regain cap space previously unavailable in a Lucic buyout. It’s a win no matter what.

  37. Coiler says:

    I wonder how people on this blog are going to measure Neal’s success.

    Would 10 goals be good enough to say that it was a win?
    Would 20 goals be astounding?
    Anything beyond that be considered a trip on the gravy train?

  38. npanciroli says:

    Coiler,

    It’s an immediate win regardless of how either player plays. Turns into a massive win if Neal can play some top 6 and we don’t end up buying him out.

    For Neal I think 15+ goals and you’re happy. 20+ and you’re laughing.

  39. russ99 says:

    Nuge’s contract estimate in two summers using today’s values as per Evolving is $7.9M. And there’s two more seasons of inflation before he’s a UFA.

    Re-signing him is not a slam-dunk, if you take the fan hat off.

    First, after the run of losing, you have to question whether he’d want to play somewhere else when reaching UFA.

    What’s the extension price point where you’d cash in next summer?

  40. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Coiler,

    One way to measure the trade a win is if the conditional pick vests.

    Another would be that he’s on the ice for more goals for than against.

    The number is almost superfluous at this point.

    But for fun, I’ll say 10-15 would be in the range and anything more would be gravy. He seems to take a season or so to hit his groove with a new team.

  41. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Sure : good narrative: plus he’s coming back in the best shape of his life. Might be some truth

    – He could score a lot, and last year could be the outlier, and he will have a rebound, and playing with a Conner will help…But he’s really bad without the puck, and getting worse and slower

    – That’s all I got: No idea if will score 25: Really hope so.It was a good transaction regardless.More than a buy-out next year is bonus massive win IMO: that’s my set of expectations

    I think you’ve summed it up perfectly.
    The buyout is the big win for the Oilers.

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That’s the thing I find interesting: numbers are one of the tenents of many on this blog, yet they were thrown out the door when analyzing the relative merits of the deal

    – Re 30 goals: I think there are many many players who could score 30 with McD (even moreso if no Drai on the other wing, getting the majority of feeds)

    – Anyway hope it works out, and Neal scores a bunch, and we live with his slow boots, and poor play away from the puck that is getting worse: that’s the best case scenario, a massive win

    I don’t think we threw out the numbers as much as focused on the contract ramifications as the most important numbers. Even if both players are done like dinner, the added portability of the Neal contract makes this a clear win.

    The other key number is consecutive years of suck: 1-2 in favour of Neal, which allows the possibility that last year was an outlier and not the start of a permanent downward trend.

  43. kgo says:

    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – O lord: some are going to go ape-sh$t: saying I’m making straw men, calling people out, blah blah

    – It’s just my take: and I’ve tempered my expectations from my view of my perception of overall reactions comments post transaction, which applauded the deal from a hockey perspective AND a financial one in equal measures (my opinion of the tone). So I figured I’d share, based on further review: it’s a financial win.

    – I think many are setting themselves up for disappointment if they “expect” 21+ goals from Neal as the cherry on top. Hope he comes back eye of the Tiger, off-season to get in best shape of life, return to form etc.

    – That’s the job of the team and MSM: to sell hope. I won’t let it sway my take, grounded in a different take

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Coiler:
    I wonder how people on this blog are going to measure Neal’s success.

    Would 10 goals be good enough to say that it was a win?
    Would 20 goals be astounding?
    Anything beyond that be considered a trip on the gravy train?

    I don’t think you have low expectationa for the new player just because you acquired him in exchange for a negative value contract.

    Neal is still a big ticket contract with a history of sniping. If he lands in the Top 6, I expect 20-25 goals minimum. I’d be surprised if the player himself expects anything less.

  46. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Nurse can go to arbitration and get over $6 million.And go to arbitration the year after that to get to UFA status.

    Offer him 8 x $7 million, and call it a day.It will be a bargain contract.

    Agreed. Get it done and move on. $7 mill if the price.

  47. LadiesloveSmid says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    Yes

  48. kgo says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Yes

    So you’re happy to let him walk? I see him as a perfect middle 6 veteran…Draper or Pisani type

  49. Side says:

    who: I think you’ve summed it up perfectly.
    The buyout is the big win for the Oilers.

    Agreed. Lucic still has plenty of time to start falling off the cliff away from the puck, too. At least the Oilers won’t be the ones who are forced to deal with that.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    kgo: So you’re happy to let him walk?I see him as a perfect middle 6 veteran…Draper or Pisani type

    20-25P players are always available in September on PTOs. EDM needs their Kassians, Gagners, and Chiassons to be making ~1M so they can afford impact Fs for the top 6.

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    blainer: It’s hard to square Lucic’s possession numbers for me. I know the math shows him good in that metric which surprises me a lot as he just looked like a give away machine the last couple of years. Could not take or make a pass while always giving the puck up on our own blueline.

    IMO this is a player where the numbers just don’t add up to the eye test and i bet a lot of posters here agree with that.

    As for Neal. They have to play a defensive minded forward with him whatever line he is on and hopefully our D can step it up for everyone this year.

    IF Neal gets large amounts of time with CMD I think he scores 30 plus goals.

    I agree. The possession numbers are failing to capture something. Lucic’s hands are worse than his feet and his feet are awful.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    Is a 23 year old Darnell Nurse really “prime” though? I was under the impression that defenseman peaked later than forwards, and prime doesn’t start until 25 or so. Glad of anyone with knowledgeable input.

  53. Reja says:

    LadiesloveSmid: 20-25P players are always available in September on PTOs. EDM needs their Kassians, Gagners, and Chiassons to be making ~1M so they can afford impact Fs for the top 6.

    Kassian has value he isn’t a PTO in fact with St. Louis and the Caps cups his stock is on the rise.

  54. McNuge93 says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    I don’t think anyone will pay him $4 mil for a one year blip. We’ve seen that with Maroon and Chiasson. But I like Kass and if he has a decent year would like to see him resign at a reasonable rate but maybe just 2 years. . If he isn’t happy with the amount of ice time he gets he may decide to test free agency.

  55. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Here’s how I look at the Neal-Lucic trade:

    It’s like Lucic went to the pressbox (where he probably belonged at times last year), and they got Neal for $500,000.

    That’s why I’ve been walking around with a huge shit-eatin’ grin on my face since Friday!

  56. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Is a 23 year old Darnell Nurse really “prime” though? I was under the impression that defenseman peaked later than forwards, and prime doesn’t start until 25 or so. Glad of anyone with knowledgeable input.

    I think 25 is the earliest for most dmen. Always exceptions but big boys like Nurse are usually slower to reach their peak that the smaller guys.

    What he will cost has a lot to do with progression or regression this year, though, imo so too soon to know how it plays out. Things like a new TV deal down south and the effect of adding Seattle to the cap will be major discussion points.

    When your top two players eat 25% of the current cap who else you can afford to pay is always going to be a discussion. Nothing to do with value. It’s all about how much the team can afford.

  57. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Reja: Kassian has value he isn’t a PTO in fact with St. Louis and the Caps cups his stock is on the rise.

    I generally like Kassian. His numbers were pretty pedestrian before playing with 97 & 29.

    I suspect he will be dealt at the deadline this February and come summer will sign for less than he makes now, depending on his playoff performance.

  58. John Chambers says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    Toughs who can fight, and skate, and score in the top-6 are really valuable, but the margin between this player and a 3rd or 4th line “energy” player is slight but important.

    I don’t know which guy Kassian is, but I think he’s earned 10-20 games on the top-line to examine whether he’s from the Tom Wilson tree. McDavid and Draisaitl really like Kassian. He’s their buddy and they seem to like playing with him. The opportunity for Kass to play with those guys is a career gift.

    If he hangs in the top-6 the two sides should probably be able to agree on a 3-4 year extension somewhere between $2.5 – $3.5M, but anything approaching $4M is overpaying for Kassian’s good fortune.

    There’s a McDavid-Draisaitl bump effect, no doubt. It’s why Pat Maroon isn’t getting paid like a top-6 player becaue he isn’t.

  59. GMB3 says:

    JimmyV1965: Agreed. Get it done and move on.$7 mill if the price.

    By what metric is Nurse deserving of 7 million? His RAPM charts are ugly, his WoodMoneys this past season weren’t very good either. Giving a guy 7 million to hope he improves seems counterproductive on a cap strapped team.

    He’s not good in his own end, he’s not great in the offensive end. Fuck

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    Giving Kassian a 4 year contract would be a mistake imo

    This is a player that can go to sleep on a coach. Shorter term deals are better for players who need a little extra motivation.

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurses agent is probably going to try to use Trouba as comparable
    He needs to come a long way in his own end for me to give him 7-8 mil a year
    Where he’s at right now I would trade him

    Good luck with that. Nurse isn’t anywhere near Trouba’s level. I don’t see that as a reasonable comp at all.

  62. John Chambers says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Giving Kassian a 4 year contract would be a mistake imo

    This is a player that can go to sleep on a coach. Shorter term deals are better for players who need a little extra motivation.

    No doubt.

    But this is Kassian’s best shot at the money. Someone could offer hm the Brian Bickell contract.

    Three years at three million per would be a nice result for Edmonton. If he continues to look capable alongside 97-29 then some team will undoubtedly offer him more and for longer.

  63. Profit says:

    Bucci Mane

    Verified account

    @Buccigross
    Follow Follow @Buccigross
    More
    Sources tells me Brian Wiseman, Associate Head Coach at Michigan is leaving to be assistant coach with the @EdmontonOilers and Dave Tippett. #CawlidgeHawkey

    Interesting move… I know nothing of Michigan’s coaching staff but there must be a Holland connection there?

  64. Profit says:

    Here is his resume… apparently been Assistant / Associate head coach at Michigan since 2011:

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/staff/2323/brian-wiseman

    Well he’s certainly not part of the old boys club.

  65. Profit says:

    Ok last post… apparently Tippett connection, not Holland (assumed with Michigan / Detroit).

    Bucci Mane

    Verified account

    @Buccigross
    8m8 minutes ago
    More
    Brian Wiseman Played for Dave Tippett in the IHL with Houston. They Won championship together in 1999. Tippett then hired Wiseman as a video coach in 2002 when Tippett got the Dallas head coaching job. Wiseman was one of the more impressive assistants in #CawlidgeHawkey

  66. McNuge93 says:

    John Chambers: No doubt.

    But this is Kassian’s best shot at the money. Someone could offer hm the Brian Bickell contract.

    Three years at three million per would be a nice result for Edmonton. If he continues to look capable alongside 97-29 then some team will undoubtedly offer him more and for longer.

    Not so sure about other teams bidding a big number. Money seems to tight and will be next year as well.

  67. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – There is a good piece in the Athletic on Lucic v Neal

    – It’s strictly a math analysis: but there is no doubt that Lucic is the better player by all measures that are valued in this blog in terms of fancy stats.Not even close

    – Basically, hope that Neal will score more to make up for his awful, eroding possession numbers

    – The change of scenery is good for both, and the analysis doesn’t include the less costly buy-out of Neal vs Lucic, and no protection, both significant wins

    – Deal might end up working out well if Neal can score some goals, but don’t get sucked into the narrative about “coming into camp in best shape of life”, etc

    – The likely scenario is Neal isn’t effective, and gets bought out in a year.

    – Hope for more of course, and I’m not critical of deal, it’s a good move: I’m just tempering reality

    * but the chance that Neal rebounds and scores 25+, all the while unloading Lucic’s contract makes Holland GM of the year.That alone is worth it, and if it happens, its a massive delta for team

    Agree with this take. It’s an ok move that COULD be a great move. Time will tell.

    We have to hope he can play effective 3rd line minutes and be the net-front PP guy Lucic never really was.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Nurse can go to arbitration and get over $6 million.And go to arbitration the year after that to get to UFA status.

    Offer him 8 x $7 million, and call it a day.It will be a bargain contract.

    I’m not seeing any stats that back up your numbers. I love Nurse, but what has he done to warrant an 8 x $7M contract right now today?

  69. meanashell11 says:

    Profit:
    Bucci Mane

    Verified account

    @Buccigross
    Follow Follow @Buccigross
    More
    Sources tells me Brian Wiseman, Associate Head Coach at Michigan is leaving to be assistant coach with the @EdmontonOilers and Dave Tippett. #CawlidgeHawkey

    Interesting move… I know nothing of Michigan’s coaching staff but there must be a Holland connection there?

    Detroit is in Michigan!

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Really nice to see Bouchard only behind J. Hughes, K, Kakko, Q, Hughes and K. Makar on Wheeler’s top 50 drafted (or signed) prospects rankings.

    As an aside, its also really nice to see Adam Fox so high given the flames had to essentially give him away (as a throw in) because he wouldn’t sign.

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’m not critical of the move, just putting pause to the euphoria of trade from a Hockey perspective.

    You’re on fire today, Kinger.

  72. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bob musing about the potential to trade JP for another prospect struggling to gain traction, suggests teams with 45 players on their roster as a possibility.

    Per CapFriendly, those teams are:

    WSH
    TOR
    STL
    VCR
    DET
    MIN
    PHI

  73. godot10 says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    You are out to lunch! -). One should not go more than 2 years for any non-core forward. Kassian is entering his 30’s. Four years would be a really bad idea.

    There were much fewer duration contracts given out to non-elite free agents this year. There will be even fewer next year.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    blainer: IF Neal gets large amounts of time with CMD I think he scores 30 plus goals.

    He will, on the PP. I don’t think Neal should be anywhere near the 1st line.

  75. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think you have low expectationa for the new player just because you acquired him in exchange for a negative value contract.

    Neal is still a big ticket contract with a history of sniping. If he lands in the Top 6, I expect 20-25 goals minimum. I’d be surprised if the player himself expects anything less.

    Except he is probably not really a top six forward anymore. The only reason he might be adequate in the top six is that he will be playing with an elite centre. In Vegas and Nashville in the top six without an elite centre, his possession metrics were not good.

    He is going to be a drag on who he plays with in the top six, but he is probably better than anyone else available.

  76. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bob posits Nurse will take $6.5-$8MM to sign long term.

  77. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    godot10,

    I’d like to see Neal with Nuge. Maybe with Chaser and both wingers on their off-wing ready for the quick dish one-timers.

    Is that being too optimistic?

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    Nuge’s contract estimate in two summers using today’s values as per Evolving is $7.9M. And there’s two more seasons of inflation before he’s a UFA.

    Re-signing him is not a slam-dunk, if you take the fan hat off.

    First, after the run of losing, you have to question whether he’d want to play somewhere else when reaching UFA.

    What’s the extension price point where you’d cash in next summer?

    And Nurse’s is at 5 x $5.5M. Keep that in mind when hearing all the “$7M” talk…

    Also, some serious value in the core: McDavid is listed at 8 x $13.25, Draisaitl at 8 x $11.7 and Klefbom at 8 x $7.25. About the only things Chiarelli got right, although McDavid would have been right at any number IMO.

  79. Reja says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I generally like Kassian. His numbers were pretty pedestrian before playing with 97 & 29.

    I suspect he will be dealt at the deadline this February and come summer will sign for less than he makes now, depending on his playoff performance.

    Kass almost got washed out of the league a few times but make no mistake he does have a unique skill set especially for playoff hockey. I also believe the Refs have eased up on him and the ticky tacky bullshit calls he was receiving on half his penalties. At this moment Kass stock is at the highest it’s been since playing with the Sedins.

  80. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Is a 23 year old Darnell Nurse really “prime” though? I was under the impression that defenseman peaked later than forwards, and prime doesn’t start until 25 or so. Glad of anyone with knowledgeable input.

    Darnel Nurse is 24. If you sign him next summer to 8 x $7 million, one is paying for his 25-32 year old seasons…the prime years of his career locked in at a fixed price.

    Elite D are now getting $11 million. Troube set the bar for a #2D at $8 million. Nurse’s prime years locked in at $7 million would be a good deal.

    Nurse is now arbitration eligible. He is going to get market salaries for the next two years after this one till UFA status.

    Lock him in. He should have been locked in last year before the salary scales were reset.

  81. Pouzar says:

    godot10: In Vegas and Nashville in the top six without an elite centre, his possession metrics were not good.

    In his 3 seasons in NSH his CF%rel were all positive.
    In his lone season in Vegas he dipped slightly below his teammates at -0.51.

  82. godot10 says:

    Profit:
    Bucci Mane

    Verified account

    @Buccigross
    Follow Follow @Buccigross
    More
    Sources tells me Brian Wiseman, Associate Head Coach at Michigan is leaving to be assistant coach with the @EdmontonOilers and Dave Tippett. #CawlidgeHawkey

    Interesting move… I know nothing of Michigan’s coaching staff but there must be a Holland connection there?

    He played for Tippett in the AHL in Houston for a couple of years.

  83. HenryDrix says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lots of talk over the last few months about buying out Gagner or moving Gagner for cap savings.

    I get it, he likely is overpaid at $3M (and change).

    At the same time, he produced at solid rates as an Oiler last year and, without looking, I don’t think he had elite linemates.

    Nope, Sam is not the perfect player, he has some defensive issues, not a great skater, doesn’t PK, etc.At the same time, he is versatile and can play up and down the lineup, he has skill and vision, he is good on the PP and, for a team devoid of secondary and tertiary scoring, I think he can be a very useful piece this season. I’m not positive that he won’t be darn close to value for $3M this year given current NHL salary structure.

    And he”s pretty good in shootouts too.

  84. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not seeing any stats that back up your numbers. I love Nurse, but what has he done to warrant an 8 x $7M contract right now today?

    It is NOT today. The $7 million would start next season.

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    Not completely! 😉

    Remember that Zack will be 29 this winter, I wouldn’t go too long on a 29-year-old that has scored 15 goals once in his career. His current contract is 3 x $1.95M and he hasn’t exactly been value for that money except when playing with McDavid. I think he knows that, too, and so do 31 GM’s in the league. I called him a “right-handed Pat Maroon” right after Maroon got dealt, I think that comp is as good as it gets here: Maroon was on a 3 x $2M deal when he played with McDavid, scored 27 goals in 16-17 followed by 14 in 57 games in 17-18 and was dealt for a 3rd round pick and a C-level prospect at the deadline. His next contract? 1 x $1.75M.

    Depending on how well he does this year and where the prospects are at, that’s the type of deal I would target for Kassian. If he wants term and AAV you trade him at the deadline, simple as that.

  86. Side says:

    They brought in a Wiseman to look after McJesus? This is a sign.

  87. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: He will, on the PP. I don’t think Neal should be anywhere near the 1st line.

    Neal is not going to take Draisaitl’s spot on the #1PP. You aren’t going to replace a 50 goal scorer (with a better shot) with Neal. Draisaitl is playing Neal’s spot. #2PP for Neal.

    If Neal is going to play PP#1 he is going to have to take Chiasson net front spot,

  88. BONE207 says:

    blainer: It’s hard to square Lucic’s possession numbers for me. I know the math shows him good in that metric which surprises me a lot as he just looked like a give away machine the last couple of years. Could not take or make a pass while always giving the puck up on our own blueline.

    IMO this is a player where the numbers just don’t add up to the eye test and i bet a lot of posters here agree with that.

    So Blainer, what you’re saying is that Looch is the Kris Russell of forwards. Math doesn’t fully describe what the eyes see. Starfishing is too complex for fancy stats.
    Lucic meanwhile is the Blowfish of forwards. Lots of huffing & puffing but a day late & a dollar short. Mean scowls & fist shaking is like Laplace transforms was for me. It all looks pretty animated but does it win hockey games?

  89. Jordan says:

    Coiler:
    I wonder how people on this blog are going to measure Neal’s success.

    Would 10 goals be good enough to say that it was a win?
    Would 20 goals be astounding?
    Anything beyond that be considered a trip on the gravy train?

    These are my criteria for evaluating the trade:**
    If Lucic and Neal are both as poor as they were last year = Win Oilers
    If Lucic is better and Neal is as poor as last year = Win Flames
    If Lucic is as poor as last year and Neal is better = Win Oilers
    If Both players are better and the Oilers give up the 2020 3rd = Win Flames*
    If Both players are better and the Oilers keep the 2020 3rd = Win for both Oilers ad Flames

    *If Neal scores more than 21 goals and at least 40 points, this becomes a tie. More than 25G 50P, Win Oilers.

    **If the Flames injure any Oilers player this season, this trade will be seen as a loss

    One Question that recently came to mind to me:
    How much of this trade is to mitigate potential on-ice fallout from the Giordano takedown of McDavid? I don’t know if McDavid is one to hold a grudge, but I don know that revenge is a dish best served cold…

    Ain’t many places in the NHL colder than Edmonton.

  90. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: Kassian has value he isn’t a PTO in fact with St. Louis and the Caps cups his stock is on the rise.

    Funny you should mention St Louis… Maroon is a pretty good comp for Kassian. Remember when Maroon scored 27 next to McDavid? His next contract was 1 year x $1.75M.

  91. Jordan says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    ArmchairGM,

    godot10,

    I’d like to see Neal with Nuge.Maybe with Chaser and both wingers on their off-wing ready for the quick dish one-timers.

    Is that being too optimistic?

    Yes – line has no speed. Will get killed in the transition game.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: I think 25 is the earliest for most dmen. Always exceptions but big boys like Nurse are usually slower to reach their peak that the smaller guys.

    LT has him in the Prime group, I think Nurse should be in the McDavid cluster. That’s all.

  93. Revolved says:

    Nit64,

    Thank you, The Search Engine clearly needs to improve on its old baseball references.

  94. godot10 says:

    Jordan: These are my criteria for evaluating the trade:**
    If Lucic and Neal are both as poor as they were last year = Win Oilers
    If Lucic is better and Neal is as poor as last year = Win Flames
    If Lucic is as poor as last year and Neal is better = Win Oilers
    If Both players are better and the Oilers give up the 2020 3rd = Win Flames*
    If Both players are better and the Oilers keep the 2020 3rd = Win for both Oilers ad Flames

    *If Neal scores more than 21 goals and at least 40 points, this becomes a tie.More than 25G 50P, Win Oilers.

    **If the Flames injure any Oilers player this season, this trade will be seen as a loss

    One Question that recently came to mind to me:
    How much of this trade is to mitigate potential on-ice fallout from the Giordano takedown of McDavid?I don’t know if McDavid is one to hold a grudge, but I don know that revenge is a dish best served cold…

    Ain’t many places in the NHL colder than Edmonton.

    It is actually a win for the Oilers regardless of what Lucic does in Calgary, except if Neal ever has to be LTIR’ed with a career ending injury.

    It is just a matter of how big a win.

  95. LadiesloveSmid says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Bob posits Nurse will take $6.5-$8MM to sign long term.

    Show Darnell the door.

    He’s a good 2nd pairing D

  96. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Show Darnell the door.

    He’s a good 2nd pairing D

    $6.5 million to $8 million will be a 2nd pairing salary by next season.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers: If he continues to look capable alongside 97-29 then some team will undoubtedly offer him more and for longer.

    I’d like to think every GM in the league knows what “zooming” means.

  98. Side says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Bob musing about the potential to trade JP for another prospect struggling to gain traction, suggests teams with 45 players on their roster as a possibility.

    Per CapFriendly, those teams are:

    WSH
    TOR
    STL
    VCR
    DET
    MIN
    PHI

    I know Bob is really well connected so.. does he just like to throw little riddles or guessing games out to the crowd for fun/viewers or what? Do the Oilers give him encoded messages which he decodes in the form of muses?

  99. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: $6.5 million to $8 million will be a 2nd pairing salary by next season.

    If they run a $15M 2nd pair in 2020, they’ll have to dump Draisaitl

  100. LadiesloveSmid says:

    $21M on your top 2 players means no $8M for 2nd pairing D! No $6M for 3rd line forwards!

  101. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jordan,

    That’s a reasonable take.

    So how about Granlund-RNH-Neal as a second line?

    Two centres, Granlund can be a defensive conscience freeing up Nuge, and Neal is the trigger man.

    Would be nice to have 6-7 top-6 forwards, but this is us. Maybe next year.

  102. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Side,

    He does like his riddles.

    Allows him to say he was being cryptic when he’s “right” and feign ignorance when he’s not.

  103. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    Remember when we could have apparently signed him long term @ $5.5MM? Those were the days. Really stoked we’ve got MK for another three years, and unsure what we’re getting to boot.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    kgo:
    I hope Holland is speaking with Nurse’s agent early and often….me thinks his value only climbs as the year progresses…

    I’d be happy for an extension signed for 7-8 years for any AAV below $7M – the man is going to get paid.

    With that said, I imagine this will get done next off-season and it could be well in to the spring/summer.

    I’m not sure I see his value increasing too much. I predict a similar year from his as last year but potentially better defensively with more experience and a partner change (hopefully). I see his box-cars being a bit similar or lower depending on PP time. If he’s back to seldom used on the PP, I can see him back to 30-35 points which is still fantastic ES production.

    With Klef healthy, Persson in the picture and Bouchard (and Bear) potentially in the picture at some point, I’m not sure how much PP time will be available?

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Philosophil:
    I believe the newly drafted Russian goalie has a a non zero chance to be a part if the McDavid cluster at some point, but still under contract in the K for this year
    Fair to say PC was or created a cluster F^ck?

    I think he may be under contract for next year too but I believe that’s not really an issue if we want to sign him and bring him over – subject to Katz writing the appropriate money order…..

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurses agent is probably going to try to use Trouba as comparable
    He needs to come a long way in his own end for me to give him 7-8 mil a year
    Where he’s at right now I would trade him

    Trouba should create the absolute ceiling.

    If Nurse puts up 50 points or so this year, well, he’s earned himself close to $8M.

    If he puts up another 40 (which is likely dependant on PP time), he’s earned himself that $7M.

    If he puts up his standard 30-35, mostly 5 on 5 points and take a step forward defensively with more experience and a non-Russell partner, he’s earned close to $6.5M or so.

    In my opinion.

  107. Jordan says:

    godot10: $6.5 million to $8 million will be a 2nd pairing salary by next season.

    I don’t agree. The cap next year is likely to be mostly flat, so there will be minimal inflation on existing salary structure.

    The prices paid this year for middle to high-end dmen have been UFA prices, so of course were high. Trouba was a year away from walking, so as 1st pair puckmover,was paid through the nose 8M per). Myers was overpaid in Term and Value (6M per) to go to a bottom-feeder. Pionk got 3M, Zadorov got 3.2, Ceci got 4.5, Chiarot got 3.5, Stralman got 5.5M per, Ryan Murray got 4.6M, Edler got 6M as a 1st Pair D, Karlsson got 11.5 as one of the top 5 Offensive D-men in the league. Esa Lindell, who I’d consider a good comparable got 5.8 x 6. I could see Nurse getting 6×6 next year if he continues to put up 40 point seasons.

    2nd pair Dmen will not be getting 8M per. 1st Pairing Dmen will.

    Are you saying based on his performance to date that Nurse is a 1st Pairing D-man?

  108. GMB3 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    $21M on your top 2 players means no $8M for 2nd pairing D! No $6M for 3rd line forwards!

    8 million dollars for a guy who can’t keep a pairing above water is hilarious. Our second pairing was terrible this year. I’m not so quick to blame it all on Russell either. With high end forwards like Drai and McDavid, we need value contracts. 8 million for a guy who can’t defend. Yikes

  109. Pouzar says:

    Neal on ON: seems to prefer playing RW when his Center is a left shot. Interesting.

  110. Jordan says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jordan,

    That’s a reasonable take.

    So how about Granlund-RNH-Neal as a second line?

    Two centres, Granlund can be a defensive conscience freeing up Nuge, and Neal is the trigger man.

    Would be nice to have 6-7 top-6 forwards, but this is us.Maybe next year.

    I don’t see Granlund on the 2nd line without injuries. I think he’ll be a fixture on the 3rd line.

    I don’t have a good solution for the lines, so am trying to move pieces around to find something that might work better than

    Leon – McD – Kassian
    Neal – Nuge – ????

    Because that ??? should have speed, play a good 2 way game and have skill to set up both players. Granlund isn’t a burner and doesn’t have great skill.

    Honestly the best fit there would be Jesse or Kassian (if Jesse is playing on the top line). If Jesse’s not available, I’d look at someone like Nygard, and see if he’s a fit.

    I don’t think you can play a top 6 without some serious speed, so that would be my biggest priority for the 2nd line. Connor has enough for line 1, so for Line 2, they need someone who can push the D men back.

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Really nice to see Bouchard only behind J. Hughes, K, Kakko, Q, Hughes and K. Makar on Wheeler’s top 50 drafted (or signed) prospects rankings.

    As an aside, its also really nice to see Adam Fox so high given the flames had to essentially give him away (as a throw in) because he wouldn’t sign.

    What are your thoughts on Samorukov, Benson and Broberg missing the list entirely?

  112. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Bob musing about the potential to trade JP for another prospect struggling to gain traction, suggests teams with 45 players on their roster as a possibility.

    Per CapFriendly, those teams are:

    WSH
    TOR
    STL
    VCR
    DET
    MIN
    PHI

    Kyrou? Not saying that he’s a good target, but he’s the same age as Jesse and hasn’t done jack shit. Maybe St. Louis is getting tired of waiting.

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Bob posits Nurse will take $6.5-$8MM to sign long term.

    Up to $8M now? That’s ludicrous.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    ArmchairGM,

    godot10,

    I’d like to see Neal with Nuge.Maybe with Chaser and both wingers on their off-wing ready for the quick dish one-timers.

    Is that being too optimistic?

    I don’t know, I guess that’s Tippett’s job to find out. It certainly doesn’t look like the 2nd line on a playoff team, but that may be the best he can do this year.

  115. Pouzar says:

    Last 3 years:

    Nurse with Russell (1514:57) His most common partner in that span.
    CF% 46.19
    GF% 48.72

    Nurse without Russell (1828:37)
    CF% 51.46
    GF% 53.80

    Those “without numbers” are mostly played with Larsson, IOW…1st pairing.

    For funzzies, check out Larsson’s GF% with/without Nurse in that same time frame

    I am not saying Nurse is 1st pairing, just presenting the numbers.

  116. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Darnel Nurse is 24.If you sign him next summer to 8 x $7 million, one is paying for his 25-32 year old seasons…the prime years of his career locked in at a fixed price.

    Elite D are now getting $11 million.Troube set the bar for a #2D at $8 million. Nurse’s prime years locked in at $7 million would be a good deal.

    Nurse is now arbitration eligible.He is going to get market salaries for the next two years after this one till UFA status.

    Lock him in.He should have been locked in last year before the salary scales were reset.

    A couple of things:

    – Nurse is listed in the Prime cluster as a 23-year-old because he played most of the season at 23. I think he should be in the McDavid cluster which was the genesis of the comment, nothing to do with contract extension at all.
    – You referencing “elite D” and “Troube” means exactly zero when discussion Nurse’s next contract, zero. He isn’t elite and he’s nowhere near Trouba’s ability either.

  117. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: It is NOT today.The $7 million would start next season.

    He’s eligible for an extension today. Are you advocating offering him that extension today and hoping he covers the bet over the next 9 years?

  118. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Neal is not going to take Draisaitl’s spot on the #1PP.You aren’t going to replace a 50 goal scorer (with a better shot) with Neal.Draisaitl is playing Neal’s spot.#2PP for Neal.

    If Neal is going to play PP#1 he is going to have to take Chiasson net front spot,

    Did I say anything about replacing Draisaitl? What is it with you?

  119. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurses agent is probably going to try to use Trouba as comparable
    He needs to come a long way in his own end for me to give him 7-8 mil a year
    Where he’s at right now I would trade him

    I’d give him $7M X 8 right now I think.

    Nurse is far from perfect, but he’s a minute munching top 4 who’s averaged 31 points per 82 games over the past 3 seasons. And managed to be a plus player on generally bad teams over the same span.

    He may not be worth $7M right now but $7M X 8 buys a lot of UFA years. I think it’s a bit like the Draisaitl deal where even if the player plateaus it’s value for the 2nd half of the deal, with a chance to be major value much earlier.

  120. Jordan says:

    ArmchairGM: A couple of things:

    – Nurse is listed in the Prime cluster as a 23-year-old because he played most of the season at 23. I think he should be in the McDavid cluster which was the genesis of the comment, nothing to do with contract extension at all.– You referencing “elite D” and “Troube” means exactly zero when discussion Nurse’s next contract, zero. He isn’t elite and he’s nowhere near Trouba’s ability either.

    Agree – Nurse is no Trouba. No way Nurse’s next contract begins with an 8 unless he turns into Pietrangelo this year. At 24, Alex P had 50 points taking on the leagues best on the 1st pairing every night and was +20.He is currently in the last year of his contract at 6.5M per.

    Nurse is also not better than Alex – I’m very curious to see what he gets next year from the Blues.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coiler:
    I wonder how people on this blog are going to measure Neal’s success.

    Would 10 goals be good enough to say that it was a win?
    Would 20 goals be astounding?
    Anything beyond that be considered a trip on the gravy train?

    Neal could come in, sleep with Nurse’s sister, get the crap kicked out of him and put in 4 points and the trade is a win.

    There is zero risk for the Oilers on this trade and zero downside.

    The hope is to not need a buyout (noone want that, in particular the penalty years) but that worst case scenario is better than where we were on Thursday – cap wise, expansion draft protection risk wise.

    I am hopeful that he adds materially to the team and, if that’s the case, its just a massive win – trading Lucic for a plus player? Come on…

  122. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: $6.5 million to $8 million will be a 2nd pairing salary by next season.

    Nope. The cap will likely go up about 2.5% again, 2nd pairing Dmen aren’t going to see a 100%+ jump in salary.*

    * in terms of the cap hit of left-shot defensemen, the #32 player in the league is making $4.6M while the #62 is making $2.5M. $6.5 – $8M will not be the going rate of 2nd pairing defenders until the upper cap limit is over $150M.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense/all/desc/2/left&p=2

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Nuge’s contract estimate in two summers using today’s values as per Evolving is $7.9M. And there’s two more seasons of inflation before he’s a UFA.

    Re-signing him is not a slam-dunk, if you take the fan hat off.

    First, after the run of losing, you have to question whether he’d want to play somewhere else when reaching UFA.

    What’s the extension price point where you’d cash in next summer?

    I think this is impossible to answer now as the following are all unknown factors:

    1) how does Nurse progress this year (defensively, maybe without Russell) and offensively (maybe with less PP time)?

    2) how does Klef do this year and, in particular, does he play 75 plus games?

    3) do we see legit progression from any of Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov?

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    BagofPucks: I don’t think we threw out the numbers as much as focused on the contract ramifications as the most important numbers. Even if both players are done like dinner, the added portability of the Neal contract makes this a clear win.

    The other key number is consecutive years of suck: 1-2 in favour of Neal, which allows the possibility that last year was an outlier and not the start of a permanent downward trend.

    I would suggest that its 1-3 as its been 3 years for Lucic.

    Yes, Lucic was great on the PP in year one – that was important to the team and their venture to the 2nd round.

    Of course, he scored at 4th line rates at 5 on 5 that year, just like year 2 and just like year 3.

    His regression was there from day 1, three seasons now. There is no 5 on 5 bounce-back coming, at least not a material one.

    There is a chance with Neal.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    Yes, with respect, I think you are.

    This is the exact type of contract, secondary/tertiary player for term, that we need to avoid.

  126. Pouzar says:

    Is anyone going to post up any evidence today? Asking for a friend.

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: With Klef healthy, Persson in the picture and Bouchard (and Bear) potentially in the picture at some point, I’m not sure how much PP time will be available?

    That’s just it, going forward he won’t be getting 1PP minutes, probably from the 1st game played under the extension. He also might not be seeing as much of McDavid and Draisaitl due to there being better offensive options in the lineup. Connor, Leon and Ryan were his 3 most common forward linemates last year, his 5v5 P/60 with them was exemplary, as you’d expect:

    McDavid: 1.60 [563:21]
    Draisaitl: 1.39 [561:55]
    Nugent-Hopkins: 1.44 [458:24]
    Overall: 1.04 [1556:22]

    Nurse’s on-ice GF/60 with McDavid + Draisaitl: 5.09. Without those 2 players: 1.81. And that includes a 2.84 mark with Nuge while McDavid was on the bench. He just isn’t producing offence – these numbers look like the classic defenseman vampire effect.

    Yeah, I’m not down with giving this guy anywhere near a $7M offer right now, but I’d be happy to revisit the contract next spring when the 2019-20 numbers are in.

  128. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Trouba should create the absolute ceiling.

    If Nurse puts up 50 points or so this year, well, he’s earned himself close to $8M.

    If he puts up another 40 (which is likely dependant on PP time), he’s earned himself that $7M.

    If he puts up his standard 30-35, mostly 5 on 5 points and take a step forward defensively with more experience and a non-Russell partner, he’s earned close to $6.5M or so.

    In my opinion.

    Nothing he’s done indicates a $7M player. There are 14 defensemen in the league making $7M or more and there’s no way Nurse is one of that crowd. Also, 10 of those 14 were UFA contracts.

  129. defmn says:

    This is a long boring post that almost nobody will agree with.

    Just my opinion but there is a chart in the office of every team’s capologist that lays out what a “balanced” pay grade looks like based upon that year’s cap.

    It has nothing to do with the chart in the GM’s office which reflects the reality of ELC’s, UFA’s needed because of bad drafting, exceptional talent etc. except for one thing.

    The capologist’s chart is the template for balance. When the GM goes off of the template then some other of the 23 contracts needed have to go down or can go up.

    So here is a mock capologist’s template for 2019-2020. It can be argued here and there for details but it is not off by much

    I am saving $1.5 mil for in season adjustments. That is minimum imo.

    With my remaining $80 mil I am assigning $8 mil or 10% to the goalies. That is on the generous side but not by much.

    This leaves me with $72 mil for 21 players. 14 forwards and 7 dmen usually.

    $48 mil for the forwards and $24 for the dmen. You can argue that it should be a higher % for the dmen since the 5-7 dmen are more important than the 10-14 forwards and I think that is true but we are doing simple math for a balanced distribution.

    If I have $48 mil for the forwards it gets distributed something like the following.

    1st line – $20 mil
    2nd line – $15 mil
    3rd line – 7.5 mil
    4th line – 4 mil
    Extras – 1.5 mil

    Something like that.

    The dmen get to divvy up $24 mil

    1st pair – $12 mil
    2nd pair – $7 mil
    3rd pair – $4 mil
    Extra – $1 mil.

    Now, again, you can say I gave a bit too much here and not enough there but it is pretty close.

    On this team we have two players on the first line who make $21 mil without a third guy on the line.

    On this team we have almost $5 mil in dead money for buyouts and retained salary.

    So on this team we really can’t ever have a “balanced” roster unless McDavid and Draisaitl play on different lines and it doesn’t really matter what the market value is for Nurse or Nuge because the math says that there is only so much money that can be spent for the beginning years of their deals before the cap is expected to go up or the rest of the team has to be populated by guys on ELC’s – which would have required much better drafting than we have had – or journeymen chosen from the bargain bins each August.

    Long and boring but this is us.

  130. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: Nothing he’s done indicates a $7M player. There are 14 defensemen in the league making $7M or more and there’s no way Nurse is one of that crowd. Also, 10 of those 14 were UFA contracts.

    That would tell me a bit more if it was based on % of max cap at start of current contracts. Otherwise it’s likely missing some 1st pairing D who got locked in years back,

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Neal is a shooter.That is all he has ever done.Others have to push the river, while he lies in the back of the canoe waiting for someone to pass him the puck.

    AAAAA analogy sir.

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan: Esa Lindell, who I’d consider a good comparable got 5.8 x 6. I could see Nurse getting 6×6 next year if he continues to put up 40 point seasons.

    I agree with this take. Lindell is more effective than Nurse at even strength and on the PK, while being less effective on the PP (although Klingberg takes most of the minutes, so small sample size). Nurse won’t be getting prime PP time going forward, he might not be worth as much as Lindell. Comparing him to Trouba is homerism turned up to 11.

  133. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar:
    Neal on ON:seems to prefer playing RW when his Center is a left shot. Interesting.

    He always has played RW, as far as I know.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Coiler:
    I wonder how people on this blog are going to measure Neal’s success.

    Would 10 goals be good enough to say that it was a win?
    Would 20 goals be astounding?
    Anything beyond that be considered a trip on the gravy train?

    He could show up to camp with one leg, be bought out in 2020 and it would be a win.

  135. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan: Agree – Nurse is no Trouba.No way Nurse’s next contract begins with an 8 unless he turns into Pietrangelo this year.At 24, Alex P had 50 points taking on the leagues best on the 1st pairing every night and was +20.He is currently in the last year of his contract at 6.5M per.

    Nurse is also not better than Alex – I’m very curious to see what he gets next year from the Blues.

    Yeah, I think it’s too late for that. Pietrangelo averaged 47 points per 82 in the 3 seasons prior to that contract – Nurse would have to pot 74 this year to match. And he hasn’t been playing 1st pairing comp, either…

    Interestingly, Pietrangelo’s contract was 10.11% of cap, which on a projected $83.5M cap next year would be $8.44M.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think this is impossible to answer now as the following are all unknown factors:

    1) how does Nurse progress this year (defensively, maybe without Russell) and offensively (maybe with less PP time)?

    2) how does Klef do this year and, in particular, does he play 75 plus games?

    3) do we see legit progression from any of Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov?

    He wrote “Nuge”, not Nurse. Nurse is projected at 5 x $5.5M by Evolving Wild.

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64: That would tell me a bit more if it was based on % of max cap at start of current contracts. Otherwise it’s likely missing some 1st pairing D who got locked in years back,

    Of course it is, see my comments above re: Pietrangelo, who is (and was) a much superior player to Nurse at all facets of the game – except face punching. Pietrangelo is an $8M (adjusted) player, Nurse is not.

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn:
    Of course he is.

    https://www.tsn.ca/james-neal-is-hopeful-to-play-with-connor-mcdavid-with-edmonton-oilers-1.1340486

    Exactly what he said going into CGY last season!

  139. LadiesloveSmid says:

    ArmchairGM: He always has played RW, as far as I know.

    He played LW in Vegas

  140. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64: That would tell me a bit more if it was based on % of max cap at start of current contracts. Otherwise it’s likely missing some 1st pairing D who got locked in years back,

    So looking at cap hit percentage, $6.5M – $8M would put him in the top-10 of all RFA contracts among active players, ahead of Dumba, Barrie, Jones, Parayko, Spurgeon, Krug, Lindholm, Slavin, Rielly, Kilngberg and many more. And nearly double what Klefbom got!

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid: He played LW in Vegas

    He did some in Calgary too, IIRC. But he’s more comfortable on the right side and has played there nearly his entire career.

  142. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not seeing any stats that back up your numbers. I love Nurse, but what has he done to warrant an 8 x $7M contract right now today?

    Todays reality is if you wait, you pay a premium for doing so. It is imperative to make correct value determinations early to get players on value contracts. Nurse is durable and physical and an excellent skater. I would say longer term at 7 million to be fair market value. Having watched him play this summer it is my belief that Nurse has been held back in his production by not having a bonafide top four D partner for the past couple of years.

  143. LadiesloveSmid says:

    ArmchairGM: He did some in Calgary too, IIRC. But he’s more comfortable on the right side and has played there nearly his entire career.

    Not out of the question he plays LW in EDM. Scored 25 in VGK.

    No depth on either wing here! Yahoo!

  144. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Funny you should mention St Louis… Maroon is a pretty good comp for Kassian. Remember when Maroon scored 27 next to McDavid? His next contract was 1 year x $1.75M.

    Maroon has better hands Kass way more speed Maroon’s agent really fuked him up he lost out and there’s no getting it back. Kass can play up and down the lineup if he plays with a edge and is effective I resign him after Christmas for 2.25×2. We can’t lose all our toughness it still is a thing in today’s NHL for now anyhow.

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Todays reality is if you wait, you pay a premium for doing so. It is imperative to make correct value determinations early to get players on value contracts. Nurse is durable and physical and an excellent skater. I would say longer term at 7 million to be fair market value. Having watched him play this summer it is my belief that Nurse has been held back in his production by not having a bonafide top four D partner for the past couple of years.

    I think FMV is best determined using comparable players and contracts rather than fan opinion. If you aren’t going to use a fact-based argument, don’t bother replying.

  146. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: Maroon has better hands Kass way more speed Maroon’s agent really fuked him up he lost out and there’s no getting it back. Kass can play up and down the lineupif he plays with a edge and is effective I resign him after Christmas for 2.25×2. We can’t lose all our toughness it still is a thing in today’s NHL for now anyhow.

    Sure he can play up and down the lineup, but not with consistent success. He’s a replacement level player. I’d consider signing him for a 1 year deal if he does well this year then replace him with Lavoie as soon as he’s ready – during the 2021-22 season, hopefully.

  147. Side says:

    ArmchairGM: Funny you should mention St Louis… Maroon is a pretty good comp for Kassian. Remember when Maroon scored 27 next to McDavid? His next contract was 1 year x $1.75M.

    Didn’t Maroon negotiate his own contract though? Am I remembering that wrong? Not sure if that is a good comparison because of that.

  148. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar:
    Last 3 years:

    Nurse with Russell (1514:57) His most common partner in that span.
    CF% 46.19
    GF% 48.72

    Nurse without Russell (1828:37)
    CF% 51.46
    GF% 53.80

    Those “without numbers” are mostly played with Larsson, IOW…1st pairing.

    For funzzies, check out Larsson’s GF% with/without Nurse in that same time frame

    I am not saying Nurse is 1st pairing, just presenting the numbers.

    If you look at players of equal GF% the goal diff/60 can be diffrent for the same GF%.
    It does not give any accurate performance evidence.

    So you are telling us that the opposition forwards subjected our dmen to a undefined corsi count dependent on entry numbers based on our forward undefined transition pressure, undefined coaches bench change with or w/o pocession decision, and undefined coaches teamate Face off zone start decision.

    The forwards the dmen played with generated an undefined corsi count against the opposition based on the forwards undefined transition entry success, undefined bench change w/ or without pocession decision by our coach, & an undefined teamate Face off zone start decision from our coach.

    The you post a GF% which can be any differential.
    The GA dictated by the undefined open high danger shot density save% baseline that dmen subject the goalies to from an undefined Corsi count. The open HD SH baseline save% is dictated by the undefined % of 3-1-1-1 forced on the d pair by that Dman or d partner.

    After the baseline save% is defined the GA is further dictated by the undefined +ve/ -ve save%
    performance of the goalie.

    GF% and Corsi% does not give any defined numbers to take it to the first level of basic analysis related to forward, Dman, goalie performance. I identified years ago.

    Now we you could increase the resolution to identify the portions of affect for CF & CA dictated by forwards, coaches, transition ( forward & passing dependent) from both teams.

    We could increase the resolution of analysis for dmen by identifying the open HD sh density to their side of HD area per corsi.

    We could identify goalie +ve/-ve performance by goalie to each side. Highly affected by wether
    there is a a dman in front of the goalie on the side looked at (rovers often missing)

    Forward coming at a goalie with no d coverage.
    Wonder what that sounds like?
    Lets breakaway in groups and think about that.

    we know.
    Dmen + goalie are subjected to a corsi based on entry caused largely by Rover, Forward, & coaches decisions.

    The dman & goalie structure 2-1 or 1-1 gives up a GA count.

    So a simple range that best captures the top combination of Dman and goalie performance combined is
    Corsi to GA.
    It captures a high % of strong HD dmen 80-85%

    A simple differentiation of corsi/60 to Open sh/60 for identifies a high % of strong defensive Dpair population. 90+%.

    You want the complete differentiation of a dman to be open HD shot density per corsi to a dmans side.
    They do not get punished for rover failure to cover their side when they abandon the goal against structure to 1-1.

    No you did not presented real numbers.
    They do not even differentiate accurate goal diff.

  149. pts2pndr says:

    LadiesloveSmid: If they run a $15M 2nd pair in 2020, they’ll have to dump Draisaitl

    Assuming they sign Nurse long term for 7 million please tell me who Nurse is playing with on the second pairing that will be making 8 million to bring the total to 15. The cap will escalate and so will players salaries. If you could sign Nurse for seven years at seven million for his prime years you would by the way salaries are escalating, a value contract for the last four years. You have to plan ahead salaries and cap are not going to stagnate.

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: 8 million dollars for a guy who can’t keep a pairing above water is hilarious. Our second pairing was terrible this year. I’m not so quick to blame it all on Russell either. With high end forwards like Drai and McDavid, we need value contracts. 8 million for a guy who can’t defend. Yikes

    I actually don’t know what the appropriate contract is for Nurse, but you pay it. I agreed with $7 x 8 years. Maybe that’s high. He’s a good young dman who will get better. Good GMs don’t trade these guys. I’ll be absolutely shocked if Nurse is ever traded. You pay the market value and carry on.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    kgo: So you’re happy to let him walk?I see him as a perfect middle 6 veteran…Draper or Pisani type

    I wouldn’t want to necessarily “let him walk”, however, 4 years of term at almost $3M is a big ticket for a 28 year old that has really only showed consistency for 6-8 weeks playing with two of the top players in the world. Lets not forget, he had asked to be moved earlier in the season and, at the time, the loss was generally deemed minimal and many would be happy to be out of his existing contract.

    I don’t see either of the Pisani or Draper as he’s an OK PK guy and not great defensively.

    That’s the type of contract that can turn in to another over pay with term.

  152. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: I think FMV is best determined using comparable players and contracts rather than fan opinion. If you aren’t going to use a fact-based argument, don’t bother replying.

    Fact nurse played 82 games each of the last two years. Nurse scored 41 points which included 10 goa
    Klefbom played 66 and 61 games the last two years and scored 49 points and 10 goals total for the two years. Klefbom on what everybody says is a value contract at 4.5 million. Might we not by extrapolating say, that given Nurse’s production his value should range in the six to seven million range. They play on the same team and Nurse is three years younger. He has also stepped up and played first pairing when Klefbom has been injured. The best fact based comparison value vs production would be with two players playing on the same team would it not. Please explain if you will what facts would better determine Nurse,s value.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think we threw out the numbers as much as focused on the contract ramifications as the most important numbers. Even if both players are done like dinner, the added portability of the Neal contract makes this a clear win.

    The other key number is consecutive years of suck: 1-2 in favour of Neal, which allows the possibility that last year was an outlier and not the start of a permanent downward trend.

    Exactly on all points.

  154. Bulging Twine says:

    LT, I am amazed at your consistency! Churning out 365+ posts a year. Incredible. Day after day at the same time. How do you do it? Give us a life lesson. Claps to you.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HT Joe: How much of Lucic’s good numbers is the result of playing with one of McDavid, Draisatl, or RNH for the majority of his time in Edmonton?I agree that he didn’t look good by eye at playing hockey.

    A lot.

    I’m ove the opinion that Dmen Rels with forwards aren’t granular enough to show the effect of the forward, but it’s still useful info.

    Looking at just rels for forwards when looking at forwards and then accounting for QoC (and the acknowledging the QoT issues with the rel)

  156. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: He always has played RW, as far as I know.

    I believe he playec some LW with Preds

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Agree with this take. It’s an ok move that COULD be a great move. Time will tell.

    We have to hope he can play effective 3rd line minutes and be the net-front PP guy Lucic never really was.

    Would that not be setting up the player to fail as neither of those are plus parts of his game?

    He’s been a top 6 goal scorer his entire career except for last year – he’s not known as an effective checker and, unless he’s got Nuge centering that third line, I don’t like it.

    He’s not a net-front guy (to my knowledge) put a pure shooter – not sure why we wouldn’t use that on the PP.

    He may be done but at only 31 and once season removed from 10 straight 20 goal seasons, I think its prudent to give him a real shot in that top 6.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Kass almost got washed out of the league a few times butmake no mistake he does have a unique skill set especially for playoff hockey. I also believe the Refs have eased up on him and the ticky tacky bullshit calls he was receiving on half his penalties. At this moment Kass stock is at the highest it’s been since playing with the Sedins.

    The last sentence is a pretty good reason NOT to sign him for a four year term at the very upper end of what he is likely worth if he had a great year.

    There is zero chance, essentially, that turns in to a value contract – best case scenario is that he lives up to the terms of it over 4 years – for a highly inconsistent secondary/tertiary player, that is a bad idea, in my opinon.

  159. godot10 says:

    Jordan:
    2nd pair Dmen will not be getting 8M per.1st Pairing Dmen will.

    Are you saying based on his performance to date that Nurse is a 1st Pairing D-man?

    I didn’t say Nurse was going to get $8 million long term. I said $7 million long term. And that will be a good contract.

    I said the correct thing was for the Oilers to sign him long term last year. Once one identifies a core player who is young, the correct thing to do is go long.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think you have low expectationa for the new player just because you acquired him in exchange for a negative value contract.

    Neal is still a big ticket contract with a history of sniping. If he lands in the Top 6, I expect 20-25 goals minimum. I’d be surprised if the player himself expects anything less.

    I think 15-20 is a more realistic range, depending on PP time and his spot.

  161. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: He’s eligible for an extension today. Are you advocating offering him that extension today and hoping he covers the bet over the next 9 years?

    I would offer it today, because I’ve watched Nurse for several years. Holland probably wants to be around him for a year, see how hard he works and how he is in the dressing room, so he will do it next summer.

    Nurse is a keeper. those of you that doubt him are wrong.

  162. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Nope. The cap will likely go up about 2.5% again, 2nd pairing Dmen aren’t going to see a 100%+ jump in salary.*

    * in terms of the cap hit of left-shot defensemen, the #32 player in the league is making $4.6M while the #62 is making $2.5M. $6.5 – $8M will not be the going rate of 2nd pairing defenders until the upper cap limit is over $150M.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense/all/desc/2/left&p=2

    If you are signing for 8 years, the agent will be projecting what a borderline #2D will be earning in 4 years as the target salary, after removing all the entry level contracts, and discounting all the exisitng contracts which contain a discount for RFA years, which is fast disappearing.

  163. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Of course it is, see my comments above re: Pietrangelo, who is (and was) a much superior player to Nurse at all facets of the game – except face punching. Pietrangelo is an $8M (adjusted) player, Nurse is not.

    Nobody has argued that Nurse is worth $8 million. I am probably the high man, and I said 8 x $7 million.

    Which is sad, because 8 x $6 million probably would have done it last year.

  164. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: So looking at cap hit percentage, $6.5M – $8M would put him in the top-10 of all RFA contracts among active players, ahead of Dumba, Barrie, Jones, Parayko, Spurgeon, Krug, Lindholm, Slavin, Rielly, Kilngberg and many more. And nearly double what Klefbom got!

    The RFA discount is now mostly gone. You keep quoting contracts where there was still a discount for RFA years. Werenski, McAvoy, Provorov, and Carlo have yet to sign. Ditto Jake Gardiner. And Josi soon.

    The elite RFAs at forward and defense this year are going to end the RFA discount for good.

    So you should quit factoring it in.

  165. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think 15-20 is a more realistic range, depending on PP time and his spot.

    Yeah, I’m probably a little too bullish on the guy.

    Helluva magic trick that Holland pulled off.

  166. Pescador says:

    Bulging Twine:
    LT, I am amazed at your consistency!Churning out 365+ posts a year.Incredible.Day after day at the same time.How do you do it?Give us a life lesson.Claps to you.

    +1
    Not to mention the 10 or so posts that we get on draft weekend.
    It’s the McDavid of all Oiler blogs

  167. Pescador says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yeah, I’m probably a little too bullish on the guy.

    Helluva magic trick that Holland pulled off.

    I would say that Holland pulled a rabbit out of his ass
    He doesn’t wear a hat

  168. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Fact nurse played 82 games each of the last two years. Nurse scored 41 points which included 10 goa
    Klefbom played 66 and 61 games the last two years and scored 49 points and 10 goals total for the two years. Klefbom on what everybody says is a value contract at 4.5 million. Might we not by extrapolating say, that given Nurse’s production his value should range in the six to seven million range. They play on the same team and Nurse is three years younger. He has also stepped up and played first pairing when Klefbom has been injured. The best fact based comparison value vs production would be with two players playing on the same team would it not. Please explain if you will what facts would better determine Nurse,s value.

    I’m pretty sure agents and GMs go a little further into the numbers than gp, goals and points.

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Neal on ON:seems to prefer playing RW when his Center is a left shot. Interesting.

    Ya, he’s expressed this a few times over the years.

  170. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    He’s not a net-front guy (to my knowledge) put a pure shooter – not sure why we wouldn’t use that on the PP.

    Draisaitl plays Neal’s spot on the power play, so no way Neal plays PP#1 unless he becomes the net front guy, or the Oilers add far more motion to the power play. Draisaitl also takes the draws on PP#1. Draisaitl has a better shot and is a better goal scorer.

    Neal should be in Draisaitl’s spot on PP#2.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: What are your thoughts on Samorukov, Benson and Broberg missing the list entirely?

    I haven’t had a chance to read the full piece yet so don’t really have an opinion.

    The only one there that I would have expected to be on the list might be Samorukov – Broberg is so raw and years away and Benson still may top out at as a middle six guy.

  172. BONE207 says:

    HT Joe:
    Lowetide said: “Peter Chiarelli botched the McDavid cluster pretty good and that’s for sure.”

    We can argue he botched the Hall cluster too.:\

    You’ll get no argument from me, young man!!! Unless of course it’s about the use of the word botched. I’d prefer royally fucked.

  173. rickithebear says:

    ArmchairGM: Sure he can play up and down the lineup,but not with consistent success. He’s a replacement level player. I’d consider signing him for a 1 year deal if he does well this year then replace him with Lavoie as soon as he’s ready – during the 2021-22 season, hopefully.

    When people say replacement I think players coming into the league.

    You are probably saying RW signed to FA contracts.

    16-17 Kassian scored 7 evg at RW
    4 RW short of starting 2 Nd
    He was 66 th of 124 evg scoring RW.
    4 RW players short of starting 2 Nd line evg production.
    877:07EVTOI. #57 RW EVTOI
    RNH 220:25 25.1%
    Drai 69:12 7.9%
    Mcdavid 39:48 4.5%

    17-18 Kassian scored 7 evg at RW
    He was 65th of 128 evg scoring RW
    3 RW players short of starting 2 Nd line evg production.
    747:48 EVTOI #66 RW EVTOI
    RNH 59:43 8.0%
    Mcdavid 47:22 6.3%
    Drai 29:43 4.0%

    18-19 Kassian scored 14 evg at RW
    He was 37th of 116 evg scoring RW.
    1048:43 EVTOI #28 RW
    Mcdavid 428:31 40.8% of his EVTOI, 100% he racks 20 evg
    Draisaitl 351:46 33.5% of EVTOI, 100% he racks 24 evg
    RNH 185:03 17.6% of EVTOI, 100% he racks 23 evg

    The fact he generated near 2 Nd line evg production with minimal Mcdavid, Drai time in 16-17 & 17-18
    Does not make him average to below average.

    We still lack PK forward depth
    16-17 to 18-19
    Top 8 x 30-31 tm PK fwd depth 244 @ 100 EVTOI

    Archibald #17 4.76 #1 PK fwd
    Khaira #57 5.92 PK1 unit Fwd
    Chaisson #177. 7.82
    Kassian #180 7.92
    Brodziak #182. 7.95
    Mcdavid #190. 8.16
    Granlund #199 8.33
    Draisaitl #217. 8.89
    RNH #229 9.41

    We have 7 bottom PK3 & PK4 forwards.

    Hope new PK coach can work miracles.

  174. BONE207 says:

    jp: I’d give him $7M X 8 right now I think.

    Nurse is far from perfect, but he’s a minute munching top 4 who’s averaged 31 points per 82 games over the past 3 seasons. And managed to be a plus player on generally bad teams over the same span.

    He may not be worth $7M right now but $7M X 8 buys a lot of UFA years. I think it’s a bit like the Draisaitl deal where even if the player plateaus it’s value for the 2nd half of the deal, with a chance to be major value much earlier.

    Just a question…

    Don’t players get offered incentive contracts anymore?
    Example: what if you offer Darnell $5 M for 7 years. If he scores X amount of points, he gets an extra half million. If he get a Norris nomination, an extra $1 M. Wouldn’t that work for all involved. Is he in it for the money or for a chance of glory with the best player on the planet. Play hard Darrell & you can have both.

    With ideas like this, all I know is I’m not charging enough!!!

  175. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Would that not be setting up the player to fail as neither of those are plus parts of his game?

    He’s been a top 6 goal scorer his entire career except for last year – he’s not known as an effective checker and, unless he’s got Nuge centering that third line, I don’t like it.

    He’s not a net-front guy (to my knowledge) put a pure shooter – not sure why we wouldn’t use that on the PP.

    He may be done but at only 31 and once season removed from 10 straight 20 goal seasons, I think its prudent to give him a real shot in that top 6.

    He’s a prototypical power forward, why can’t he play net front? Here the scouting report, in part:

    “Also boasts very good size, which he uses effectively in the corners and in front of the net. Scores goals often because of a quick trigger. His physical game can at times go overboard, as he sometimes plays over the edge.”

    I’m not sure his overall game is good enough for the top-6 just like Chiasson’s isn’t. Doesn’t mean that he won’t play there because the Oilers don’t have any better options, but it’s not ideal IMO.

  176. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar:
    Is anyone going to post up any evidence today? Asking for a friend.

    Based on the evidence presented, Peter Chiarelli is found not guilty by reason of insanity.

  177. SkatinginSand says:

    BONE207,

    Incentives in NHL contracts are illegal except for entry level, over 35 or players who have missed very significant portions of the previous season.

  178. godot10 says:

    BONE207: Just a question…

    Don’t players get offered incentive contracts anymore?
    Example: what if you offer Darnell $5 M for 7 years. If he scores X amount of points, he gets an extra half million. If he get a Norris nomination, an extra $1 M. Wouldn’t that work for all involved. Is he in it for the money or for a chance of glory with the best player on the planet. Play hard Darrell & you can have both.

    With ideas like this, all I know is I’m not charging enough!!!

    Incentive contracts are only allowed for ELC contracts, 35plus contracts, or players who have met certain injury criteria over the preceding two years.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: +1
    Not to mention the 10 or so posts that we get on draft weekend.
    It’s the McDavid of all Oiler blogs

    Plus two hours on the radio 5 days a week, plus Saturday Sports extra, plus the Athletic, plus guess sports on the Gregor show, etc.

  180. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: s

    I’d like to keep Nurse too, but at $7M I’d explore the trade market pretty extensively hoping to find a GM who thinks he’s worth that and would give up $7M worth of young dynamic forward in return. (That’s a 7M value, not necessarily a 7M cap hit forward.)

    Nurse isn’t worth $7M today by the numbers I value. He may be next year but isn’t trending that way.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    In order to have any hope of keeping Nurse’s contract below $7M, subject to Nurse and injury, I think we’ll need to see a healthy and effective Klefbom (including on the PP) and one of the young d-men emerge as a legit PP option – be it Persson or Jones to start (or Bouchard or Bear in time). I don’t see Jones as a great PP option so lets go Joel!

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Draisaitl plays Neal’s spot on the power play, so no way Neal plays PP#1 unless he becomes the net front guy, or the Oilers add far more motion to the power play.Draisaitl also takes the draws on PP#1.Draisaitl has a better shot and is a better goal scorer.

    Neal should be in Draisaitl’s spot on PP#2.

    Of course he doesn’t displace Drai.

    I would like Nuge on the half boards on PP2 and, yes, Neal would slot in well on the unit.

  183. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side:
    They brought in a Wiseman to look after McJesus? This is a sign.

    /thread

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE: Just a question…

    Don’t players get offered incentive contracts anymore?
    Example: what if you offer Darnell $5 M for 7 years. If he scores X amount of points, he gets an extra half million. If he get a Norris nomination, an extra $1 M. Wouldn’t that work for all involved. Is he in it for the money or for a chance of glory with the best player on the planet. Play hard Darrell you can have both.

    With ideas like this, all I know is I’m not charging enough!!!

    Performance bonuses can only be included in ELC’s (with parameters and a max) and 35 plus contracts.

    The answer to the question is no.

  185. Reja says:

    With Holland’s respect and connections around the league I would say the trolling from TO, the paid Flames shrill Button and turncoat Hrudey continuous cheap shots of the Oilers will significantly ease up.

  186. Scungilli Slushy says:

    defmn: Yeah, I think the only question that matters with Neal is his shot. If he can still shoot the puck then the Oilers win the trade on the ice as well as in the capologist’s office. If last year is the new normal then the Flames made a reasonable trade from their perspective.

    I don’t think Neal’s value as a hockey player has ever depended on much other than his ability to bury the puck. Fifteen to twenty goals and I will be happy.

    If one way shooters are wanted I’d rather have Neal than Eberle. For the extra 4 inches and 30 pounds. If Neal decides to engage the game more he can bring more especially when things get heavy on the ice and light on reffing. He should also be able to take care of himself which negates playing him dirty to get him off his game.

  187. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: Exactly what he said going into CGY last season!

    Hehe. Straight out of the NHLPA field guide for when you are traded or sign as a UFA. 😉

  188. BONE207 says:

    SkatinginSand:
    BONE207,

    Incentives in NHL contracts are illegal except for entry level, over 35 or players who have missed very significant portions of the previous season.

    Damn…then therein lies the problem.

    ***Note to self: Rewrite CBA***

  189. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Nobody has argued that Nurse is worth $8 million.I am probably the high man, and I said 8 x $7 million.

    Which is sad, because 8 x $6 million probably would have done it last year.

    If you follow the thread you’ll see that $8M was indeed proffered as the high end of the range of Nurse’s next contract.

  190. Scungilli Slushy says:

    blainer:
    Really looking forward to seeing who we get for JP. I really like that KH is taking his time on this. After the Lucic trade I have a ton of confidence in him as opposed to before that trade was made.

    I would love to have JP back but I do think if we can swap him for someone like Zacha or Ek I think it could work out for both teams with struggling players getting new starts..ala Dylan Strome.

    I have supported keeping JP all along thinking the potential was too much to bail on.

    He’s been compared to Yak, I didn’t agree because Yak lacked the things a smaller one way winger needs- elite scoring skill and room creating skating. Jesse is a 5 tool player and has size.

    Now it seems there is a common link, and it’s an unwillingness to adjust to NHL hockey. Neither want to do the stop start grinding game wingers need unless they have unreal skating like P Kane or are deadly finishers, and neither have the skating or the finishing.

    Usage factors in, but elite scorers score no matter what, just less or more. Less talented players only post crooked numbers based on usage, JP getting little if not in prime usage, Yak as well.

    So now I’m cool moving him for a helpful piece. I think he’s Europe bound for good pretty soon and he’ll flourish there where he likes the game better.

  191. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: If you are signing for 8 years, the agent will be projecting what a borderline #2D will be earning in 4 years as the target salary, after removing all the entry level contracts, and discounting all the exisitng contracts which contain a discount for RFA years, which is fast disappearing.

    Four or 5 years from now the upper cap limit still won’t be $150M, sorry. Your suggestion that $6.5 – 8M will be the norm for 2nd pairing defensemen is asinine.

  192. rickithebear says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not seeing any stats that back up your numbers. I love Nurse, but what has he done to warrant an 8 x $7M contract right now today?

    Abandon a 3-2-1 structure
    Play shit defence.
    Look good punching people in the face.
    Look good skating the puck up
    Get some points.
    75% of the current GM’s value that.
    Almost 100% of those GM’s orgs never make the final 4 playoff teams.

    As LT taught me starting in 05-06 Pennats are a great measure of an .org.

    I have never said this and should have long ago.
    It is what made me look at final 4 teams and what gets them their.

    Seeing top GA teams win Conf champ & cups guided my anslysis.
    Partnered with HD area play by Flin Flon bombers and Blades of late 60,s & early 70’s
    the PA Raiders mid 70,s on.
    LAK showed me a #28 GF Team could win a CUP.

  193. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: The RFA discount is now mostly gone.You keep quoting contracts where there was still a discount for RFA years.Werenski, McAvoy, Provorov, and Carlo have yet to sign.Ditto Jake Gardiner.And Josi soon.

    The elite RFAs at forward and defense this year are going to end the RFA discount for good.

    So you should quit factoring it in.

    I also mentioned where he stood in terms of all contracts. $7M puts him in company that he doesn’t belong in, and I would have no problem telling Nurse’s agent that to his face.

  194. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Nurse can go to arbitration and get over $6 million.And go to arbitration the year after that to get to UFA status.

    Offer him 8 x $7 million, and call it a day.It will be a bargain contract.

    If Holland isn’t a goof with movement clauses Nurse will remain highly tradeable for a lot of his career. He’s really fast, mean, fights, can play horse minutes, isn’t useless defensively, and has produced relatively well.

    If guys like Barrie are worth it to teams, Nurse that much more.

  195. Andy Dufresne says:

    kgo:
    Kassian is in an interesting position…if he shits the bed this year and hits UFA he probably can’t command more than $1.5M on a short deal…if he scores 15 or 20, with his skillset, he can probably get close to $4M over a medium term contract….he knows this….i would be offering him $2.8M x 4 years before the puck drops…am I out to lunch?

    Not out to lunch.

    I suspect many posters here would find that to be too much. Especially those that see Kassian as a placeholder for the likes of Yamamoto.

    Im not sure of the dollars or the term, but I like the general idea based on three factors:

    1) Kassian is a rare combination of size, skill, skating, and attitude. He keeps up with the line.
    2) I like Draisaitl and McDavid on the same line. I dont think it matters much who you add to them, the magic comes from those two.In that sense Kassian at $2.5 or whatever is almost a perfect fit for the line.
    3) I see no one in the system that is a reasonable candidate tor the first line (certainly not Yamamoto).
    And, chances are, anyone we draft now will not be ready to play top line RW for 3 years.

    Id rather have a perfect fit like Kassian on that line and spend the cap on creating a second scoring line and some roster balance.

    So while many will say aim higher, I dont think thats wise.

    So Yes. If Kassian does in the first 4 months of the season, what he did in the last two months of last season then Id like to see him signed early. Under that scenario, I d be OK with 3 x $2m or 2x $2.5m (less if possible of course) But then Im cheap. So theres that.

    So no, youre not out to lunch IMO

  196. defmn says:

    Well, as predicted my post about what a ‘balanced’ lineup would look like was just ignored as the discussion about Nurse’s value continued so let me take a different tack.

    McDavid – $12.5
    Draisaitl – $8.5
    Buyouts & retained next summer – $4.6
    Nurse at $7 mil – $7 mil
    Nuge for 1 more year – $6

    If the cap doesn’t rise – and it might not this year – then next summer $38.6 mil in 4 players out of a $82 mil budget.

    If Neal is not bought out it is $44.3 or so for 5 players leaving $37-$38 for the other 18 players on the team or about $2 mil each.

    So if you think there was a shortage of money for a top six winger this summer try fitting one in next July.

    As mentioned this has nothing to do with value. It has to do with our cap. You can almost make this work if the drafting is stellar over a period of time. I’m not sure I can make that case for the Oilers.

    Nurse can be worth whatever you like. Not sure how the Oilers can pay him.

  197. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That’s the thing I find interesting: numbers are one of the tenents of many on this blog, yet they were thrown out the door when analyzing the relative merits of the deal

    – Re 30 goals: I think there are many many players who could score 30 with McD (even moreso if no Drai on the other wing, getting the majority of feeds)

    – Anyway hope it works out, and Neal scores a bunch, and we live with his slow boots, and poor play away from the puck that is getting worse: that’s the best case scenario, a massive win

    If you’re not good at anything in hockey defensive play is easiest to fix. It’s a choice. Skating can be improved with training and fitness. Goal scoring is a hard skill to teach, so there’s that.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: If you follow the thread you’ll see that $8M was indeed proffered as the high end of the range of Nurse’s next contract.

    Wasn’t that simply thrown out as the high end of the range by Stauffer? I don’t recall reading anyone in this blog suggesting he is currently worth that AAV.

  199. Jethro Tull says:

    199 posts on the wall…..
    199 posts…..

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