Riesen to Believe Vol. 3

by Lowetide

We’re around the turn and heading down the stretch to opening night 2019-20. The decades that end in 10’s are usually kind to the organization (Paul Coffey, Jari Kurri, Andy Moog and the playoffs in 1980, Stanley in 1990, acquired Igor Ulanov in 2010, drafted Taylor Hall in 2010) and hopefully it holds true again next spring.

Everybody making predictions but the truth is we don’t know what this roster will look like opening night. Do they add a No. 3 center? What about waivers? Here’s a quick look at current conditions.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.

  • New Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
  • Lowetide: Three players who helped their Oilers hopes and three who didn’t do enough to separate in Edmonton’s fourth preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dreadful showing means several Oilers players are on the chopping block with cuts looming
  • Jonathan Willis: How quickly must the Oilers’ top AHL prospects claim NHL jobs before they become suspect?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: McDavid and more: Five thoughts through the first week of Oilers camp
  • Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto’s delayed training camp may benefit his Oilers career
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Brandon Manning on how his contract is hurting him, proving his worth at camp and being a mentor
  • Jonathan Willis: Four players who helped, three who hurt their Oilers hopes in Edmonton’s second preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How an offseason adding more pop in his stick and skates has James Neal primed for first Oilers season
  • Lowetide: A big night for Oilers defencemen Joel Persson, William Lagesson and Evan Bouchard
  • Lowetide: Handicapping Oilers prospect progress: The development of Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Eight key questions for the Oilers to solve at training camp
  • Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners of the Oilers’ top-six and top-nine forward jobs out of camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In, out or on the bubble: Breaking down positional battles at Oilers camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
  • Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

GOALIES

1 Mikko Koskinen, 31. He was poor in his first outing, settled down in the second game and one suspects he’s close to a lock for the opening night start. Oilers fans need him to be pushed by Smith and for Tippett to use him consistently (getting both work and rest). I like this goalie for a .912SP this year. 100 percent chance of making the team.

2 Mike Smith, 37. Smith is going to be key. There are few examples of a goalie with his age and track record playing consistently well, and Smith has always had some wobble. He needs to be Edmonton’s best player on 20 nights this winter. His ability to move the puck can be a blessing and a curse. 100%

3 Shane Starrett, 25. Still with the team but Smith is now healthy so Starrett will be the final cut at the position. Dylan Wells and Stuart Skinner had their moments in camp, I think Skinner emerged as a player to watch but goaltenders are as easy to project as knuckleball pitchers. Olivier Rodrigue stopped 26 of 28 in his QMJHL last week.

LEFT DEFENSE

1 Oscar Klefbom, 26. He has been splendid in training camp, serving as mentor for Persson and reminding us of the range of skills Klefbom brings to each game when healthy. He is vital to this team’s success. 100%

2 Darnell Nurse, 24. He has the puck heading in a good direction about 70 percent of the time five-on-five during preseason. Also skating well, coverage lapses and passing remain a concern. I like him more than probably anyone reading this blog. 100%

3 Kris Russell, 32. The talk in camp has him moving to the left side but he’ll be a solid insurance policy for the coach on RH side as well. I have nicked him 10 percent because of his injury but he’s a durable fellow. 90%

4 William Lagesson, 23. He entered camp with a lot of buzz and has delivered over the first half of preseason. We don’t know that he has a job won, but the shutdown blue is close. 40%

5 Brandon Manning, 29. I had him starting in the minors and being an early recall option, suspect that’s how this story goes. However, he’s still here and he has a better chance now than the day camp opened. 10%

Caleb Jones was sent down early, I thought he played well enough to stay. Coach said Lagesson was ahead of him and that’s why we need to remember last year is just that the moment it’s over. I like Jones future a lot. Dmitri Samorukov was far more impressive at this year’s camp and will be one of the main prospects to watch in Bakersfield this year. Range of skills means he could pass people in a quick hurry on the depth chart.

RIGHT DEFENSE

1 Adam Larsson, 26. Shutdown defender looks good to me so far, he’s passing well and jumping into the play more. Don’t expect 20 points in 82 games, but if he can suppress high danger then Mr. Larsson will earn his money and then some. 100%

2 Matt Benning, 25. People want him dealt immediately if not sooner, but preseason is an inefficient way to evaluate defensemen. His numbers are good, he makes $1.9 million (reasonable) and I would keep him. I don’t believe the Oilers will. 100%

3 Joel Persson, 25. He is not yet home and dry but has shown well enough to be one of the favorites to make the team. Skates well, can move the puck, coverage is the issue and he’ll get better the more sorties flown. 80%

4 Evan Bouchard, 19. He’s a pure talent with the puck and his speed has improved. Is it enough to get him a job opening night? I think the answer is out in the ether. 40%

5 Ethan Bear, 22. He was effective when healthy in the AHL a year ago and came to camp in fantastic shape, testing off the charts. The Oilers may want to reward that, it could give him the edge but he’ll need to play well this week. 40%

Logan Day got hurt during camp and heads to Bakersfield after a somewhat disappointing training camp.

CENTERS

1 Connor McDavid, 22. He is healthy and looks great, so the only question now is when will he play? I understand the need for certainty but it’s time to get this party started. 100%

2 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 26. The absence of McDavid and Draisaitl early in the preseason meant Nuge was the feature player. Good to see, and his magic hands cashed a couple of time. Wonderful player. 100%

3 Riley Sheahan, 27. He has been about what we should have expected, no offense five-on-five, some good faceoff work and he’s on the PK. He is NOT a No. 3 center offensively. 100%

4 Gaetan Haas, 27. RH center who has speed and two-way skills, but he’s been more invisible than invincible so far this preseason. His NHL job opportunity is slipping away. 50%

5 Colby Cave, 24. He has impressed coach Tippett, and that’s all that really matters. Cave has speed issues and is not an offensive stalwart, but he does a lot of other things well. 50%

Cooper Marody didn’t get a long look in preseason, I was surprised he didn’t stay a little longer. A strong start in Bakersfield should get him back to Edmonton when the goals don’t come for the current group. Brad Malone also left early, but he’ll be lurking enough this season for OP to get little rest. Cameron Hebig was solid to excellent in camp and may have ignited his season with a strong showing. Ryan McLeod continues to impress with terrific speed and it’s possible we see him later this season.

LEFT WING

1 Leon Draisaitl, 23. The big man scored 50 goals last season, nd it took exactly 20 minutes for him to become that player again in preseason. Leon the Lion is formidable. 100%

2 Sam Gagner, 30. Over the last three seasons he is delivering (per 82gp) 15-26-41. He could play on all four lines during the year and might be No. 2 LW to start the campaign. 100%

3 Jujhar Khaira, 25. Khaira has found a job under new coach Tippett, he’s part of a ‘no fun to play against’ bottom-six line. Offense will be a concern, but if Khaira can PK like he did two years ago he’ll be a useful player. 100%

4 Markus Granlund, 26. He’ll be in the Rieder role, PK man who can score some, check some and maybe move from pivot as required. He hasn’t done a lot so far. 100%

5 Joakim Nygard, 26. He has speed and he found the range in the last game. Nygard’s speed gives him a massive advantage among the LW’s on the team. He may play with Nuge and that could come early. 90%

6 Tomas Jurco, 26. He has shown very well and along with Nygard could push some veterans out of work as the season wears along. 70%.

7 Anton Burdasov, 28. I don’t know. He looked good but it was one game. 10%

Tyler Benson played well but didn’t hang around for week two. I think Nygard’s speed probably won the day. Joe Gambardella lost his opportunity to Patrick Russell, who tore the cover off the ball and silenced all competition.

RIGHT WING

1 Zack Kassian, 28. Per 82gp as an Oiler, he scored 10-14-24, and he can PK. Scored a nice goal the other night (on a struggling goalie) so maybe he pops 15. I don’t think he will own No. 1 RW all season long. 100%

2 James Neal, 31. I think 16 goals is a reasonable expectation but if he can find a way onto McDavid’s line that number will spike. Get ready for lots of ‘he scored but I didn’t notice him otherwise’ comments. 100%

3 Josh Archibald, 26. Archibald can PK, score goals, skate and play a physical style. He’s had a couple of nice moments off the rush but hasn’t yet cashed. It’s important that he contributes offensively. 100%

4 Alex Chiasson, 28. Eight of his 22 goals a year ago came on the power play. He has played well in preseason, scoring a fine goal off a deflection last week. Like Gagner, he is destined to play up and down the lineup. 100%

5 Patrick Russell, 26. Textbook training camp and preseason, he worked every minute he was on the ice. Got a little lucky, but he has been dogged in puck pursuit and has increased his chances of making the team in a big way. 30%

Kailer Yamamoto didn’t get into any game action, so he’ll need to flourish in Bakersfield. His wrist injury robbed him of the entire training camp. Josh Currie didn’t get a lot done because Patrick Russell took the air out of the room but we might see him again later in the year. Kirill Maksimov and Ostap Safin will try to find their way on to a scoring line in Bakersfield. Raphael Lavoie is already playing in the QMJHL (2, 1-1-2).

Opening night lineups can often look a little strange and the Oilers are heading in that directions. Players vulnerable to moving down the depth chart include Kassian, Gagner, Granlund, Cave and Persson. Players who could move up include Nygard, Jurco, Burdasov, Benson, Marody, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Lagesson, Bear and Jones.

Sometimes it takes a few games to straighten things out. Opening day 1987, the Expos replaced unsigned Tim Raines with Alonzo Powell. It took a few games for the team to discover Casey Candaele was a more productive player. Raines didn’t return until May. Team still won 91 games.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the airwaves with a busy show, TSN1260. Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic is with the team and we’ll get an update on Mike Smith and the lines posted. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will also join us to talk Eskimos, Oilers and NFL weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

161 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
161 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
DenverOilFan

Material Elvis,

Testing…

Material Elvis

Ryan:
YKOil,

Anyway, that’s not the only scenario.

Keep Sekera. Buyout Gagner. Not sign Chiasson. save 1.3 in cap.

Not sign Smith. Claim a Domingue, now you have 2.15 m

Trade Russell with a million retained and a fifth rounder for future considerations.

Now you have 5.25 m in cap space.

Sell high on Kassian and get a pick back for a team looking for truculence.

Now you’ve got 7.2 m.

Knock on some doors for teams looking for cap relief and grab some better roster players and/or ufas that move the needle.

You are doing the same as DSF: removing roster players for cap space and not replacing them or accounting for the cap space required to replace them. Plus a disposition of Russell that might not have been possible this summer. These suggestions are easier said than done.

duct tape and foil

Interesting lineup. Seems like a last chance for vets like Benning to play like they need to with a real lineup. Also a big warning to guys like Granlund and Haas to get their head out their rear, work as hard as Russell, or they might be waived and demoted. The $1 million contracts can be fully dumped in the AHL.

I like 3 of the guys sitting tonight (Jurco, Nygaard, Burdisov) better than Gagner, Cave and Russell

Smell a trade coming. If a RD like Gudas is available, and a team will take a young guy like Jones in return for cap relief, then you do it. Pretty good pump and dump opportunity tonight for Gagner. Shipping him and one of the young dmen or Benning to OTT for JGP would work as well. I like the idea of using one of the young dmen as trade bait for a soon to be UFA. Jessie is still out there as well and if you can package him up with Gagner for good winger, well that’s another option.

Side

OriginalPouzar:
Tonight’s expected lineup:

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Gagner-RNH-Neal
Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
P.Russell-Cave-Chiasson

Klefbom-Persson
Nurse-Larsson
K.Russell -Benning

Smith

————————————

That very well could be opening night (except Smith/Koskinen)

Obviously:

– Nygard/Burdsavo/Jurco in the mix for 2LW
– Hass in the mix for 4C

Who knows who the 7th D will be right now out of Manning, Lagesson, Bear, Bouchard (or if one of them slips in to the lineup instead of Russell or Benning).

Awesome to see McDavid is in the lineup given the numerous reports on his status and likeliness to be ready for game 1.

I feel like this is worth noting since there has been some talk over the summer about the Oilers and how they manage injuries:

“He’s wanted to play for three weeks. Between doctors and our organization, we just wanted to make sure everything was right,” Edmonton head coach Dave Tippett said. “He’s practised hard for two weeks. He’s itching to play.”

Always good to see the Org. erring on the side of caution in this case.

Foege Foegele Torpe

McNuge93:
So is everyone else unable to get into this site today? I don’t see today’s blog either.

Its available to a select few of us Premium members.
Classic blog post by Lowetide,
Incredible thread going on

OriginalPouzar

McNuge:
So is everyone else unable to get into this site today? I don’t see today’s blog either.

The server has been down since early this morning until just a few minutes ago.

OriginalPouzar

EhTeam: These guys were brought in to fix our abysmal penalty kill.Nothing they do in a few irrelevant exhibition games is going move them off the roster.

Exactly – that’s kind of what I was getting at.

McNuge93

So is everyone else unable to get into this site today? I don’t see today’s blog either.

OriginalPouzar

Tonight’s expected lineup:

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Gagner-RNH-Neal
Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
P.Russell-Cave-Chiasson

Klefbom-Persson
Nurse-Larsson
K.Russell -Benning

Smith

————————————

That very well could be opening night (except Smith/Koskinen)

Obviously:

– Nygard/Burdsavo/Jurco in the mix for 2LW
– Hass in the mix for 4C

Who knows who the 7th D will be right now out of Manning, Lagesson, Bear, Bouchard (or if one of them slips in to the lineup instead of Russell or Benning).

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
MacT rekeaved of his duties by Lokomotiv Yaroslav.

Phew! I don’t think he was there long enough to ruin any of our prospects. I expect a big bounce-back from Konovalov.

ArmchairGM

Melman: So the strategy looks to be, if they can build two 4th lines that can play to even

How, exactly, do you build a 4th line that can break even with everybody else’s 3rd lines? And if it were possible, wouldn’t everybody be doing it?

OriginalPouzar

MacT rekeaved of his duties by Lokomotiv Yaroslav.

ArmchairGM

SK Oiler Fan: Its tradition for Oiler preseason to blend into the first 10 games of the reg season. The first 10 dont count the same as the last 72 anyway right? I wonder what kind of start a team would have if they said F it after the 1st exhibition game, sent all the pretenders down, and spent the final 5 or so exhibition games dialling in the group that will play opening night.

Does any team do that?

YKOil

Ryan,

That is a fair number of ‘ifs’ going your way (especially the Russell trade – being able to maneuver a limited trade front and only paying that price).

Melman: agreed, though I think at least 2 of the many 4ths will prove out to 3rd’s; just having a competitive bottom 6 will be huge imo (more than anything it will drop the minutes played number for the top-3 and THAT will prove out over the course of the year)

YKOil

No question, Chia misfired on securing Leivo. Chia made a lot of mistakes. And there is no question that Stauffer… well, I have nothing nice to say about the organizations town crier.

But this is about what Holland did.

Also, I think Sekera WILL have a rebound year… which is too bad given Russell’s 4 year deal being what it is.

Melman

YKOil,

If we can agree there are not enough legit 3rd liners and an excess of 4th liners, for fun let’s also agree Holland and Tippett can see that too. They started with no cap space, and holes everywhere save for 3 pretty good centres. You can’t fix everything at once. So the strategy looks to be, if they can build two 4th lines that can play to even and PK at league average, let’s bet on the 3 amigos to win the game when they’re 5v5 and on the PP. Holland and Tippett must be having a blast. It’ll be interesting to watch the season play out and with 97 guaranteed to be an entertaining one.

Eh Team

OriginalPouzar: I can’t disagree on Granlund or Archibald except to state that these are two established NHL role players in two games in the first week of exhibition.

These guys were brought in to fix our abysmal penalty kill. Nothing they do in a few irrelevant exhibition games is going move them off the roster.

Ryan

YKOil,

Anyway, that’s not the only scenario.

Keep Sekera. Buyout Gagner. Not sign Chiasson. save 1.3 in cap.

Not sign Smith. Claim a Domingue, now you have 2.15 m

Trade Russell with a million retained and a fifth rounder for future considerations. 🙂

Now you have 5.25 m in cap space.

Sell high on Kassian and get a pick back for a team looking for truculence.

Now you’ve got 7.2 m.

Knock on some doors for teams looking for cap relief and grab some better roster players and/or ufas that move the needle.

Ryan

Richard Roma:
YKOil,

The Dys got Leivo for basically nothing in trade from Toronto.

We bet on Zykov around the same time.

That was Chiarelli’s fault.

That sounds correct in that my recollection is also that those were fairly contemporaneous events.

Stauffer’s an interesting guy. There are always layers of interpretation to what he says.

He always seems to have a hidden purpose with what he says.

Lately, he keeps reiterating that Sekera is “small and too slow to retrieve pucks, so he’s a sitting duck.”

Anyway, I’ve listened to Stauffer enough to know where this is going.

I think he keeps repeating this to provide cover for Hollland. When Sekera is back to playing as a top four d this season.

Now he can mention that he also thought Sekera was done, too slow to retrieve dump ins and anyone who listens to him will have heard this ten times and acknowledge it accordingly.

Richard Roma

YKOil,

The Dys got Leivo for basically nothing in trade from Toronto.

We bet on Zykov around the same time.

That was Chiarelli’s fault.

YKOil

Harpers Hair: In the last several months, the Canucks have added all of Ferland, JT Miller, Josh Leivo and Tanner Pearson. Anyone of them would be better than any Oiler winger not named Draisaitl.

Suggesting this can’t be done is just nonsense. Of course it’s difficult when you’re spending cap space on a “Sea of Granlunds”

Ummm…

Leivo was a RFA and signed one year for $1.5m.
JT Miller cost a 1st rounder and has a Cap hit of $5.25m for 4 more years.
Pearson cost… Benning (sure, he’s roughly equivalent to Gudbranson) and has a Cap hit of $3.75m.
Ferland was an actual UFA and has a Cap hit of $3.5m.

Keeping Sekera, is $5.5m (so plus $3.0m), buying out Gagner saves roughly $2.15m and not signing Chiasson is $2.15m so the team is up $1.3m net. Lets say it’s Leivo, what the hell, he’s the affordable one. and let’s say $2.0m because you have to scare off Vancouver and maybe they will be happy with a 3rd round pick.

Cool. Plus Sekera, Leivo … Less Gagner, Chiasson and $0.7m

Using Cap Friendly the Oilers are at $80m in Cap right now so this takes them to $80.7m or so for a roster of:

13 forwards, 8 defensemen, 2 goalies = 23 players

Logical move is to bury Manning so that drops $1.1m and we are pretty close to being back to where we started:

13 forwards, 7 defensemen, 2 goalies = 22 players and a Cap hit of $79.6m

Well done. A little extra Cap space for the cost of a roster player and a 3rd round pick (at least, more like a 2nd). And that is for Leivo. The cheap one.

I’ll still take the “Sea of Granlunds” thanks. Chiasson and Gagner will out produce Leivo and, true story, I like Leivo better than either one of them.

I will sign him next year. When he is an UFA, costs only cash and I have Cap space to do so with.

I think Holland overpaid for Chiasson by $300k+, Smith by the bonuses in excess of the first $250k, and I would have liked him to sign Nygard, Archibald and Jurco to 2 year deals instead of 1 year deals. That said, for the first time in a long time my concerns with the off-season moves are so minor as to be almost non-consequential; pretty happy about that actually.

rickithebear

Material Elvis: The Oilers were not in a position to give up the kind of assets required to land JT Miller; the Canucks paid handsomely for his services.Ferland, once again, does not warrant a four year contract in my opinion so I’m glad Holland didn’t do that.Leivo, Pearson and players of their caliber are okay but certainly not difference makers.The Oilers are betting that Neal rebounds to be that top 6 winger (plus dumped one of the worst contracts and players on the Flames).A more significant addition will have to wait for now.

All this said, the top 6 isn’t a worry for me at all.GeorgeXs’s work this summer shed a lot of light on this. Goaltending, PK, and bottom 6 production will dictate the Oilers fate this season.

JT Miller 4 @ 5.25
14/15 W 58gm 8 evg
15/16 W 82gm 20 evg
16/17 W,C 82gm 17 evg
17/18 W,C 82gm 12 evg
18/19 WC 75gm 9 evg

Yes the most accurate way to determine expected performance from a player is looking at evg totals, EVTOI, evg/60.

Unless you look at team, comp, ZS: FO & Bench, NZ trap, HD penetration, Open shot targeting.

Their are 2 ways to get most viable data
– go to the necessary level of variable resolution to be accurate.
– completely ignore all micro data that 100% dependent on differentiation to the correct variable resolution.

Correct Complex. ( situational differentiation) It can be moment in time analysis.
Not complex at all. ( old school totals)

Non complex variable micro Analysis ( not large affect factors) can be 100% wrong.
It is table scrap analysis.

Least complex:
Getting and preventing goals wins games.
Everyone plays even.
Their is no such thing as regression to a common avg. (you cannot ignore this in any accurate analysis)

Least complex
Drai 31evg
Mcd 31 evg
RNH 19 evg
Neal 43 evg last 3 season tied with Taylor Hall
Kassian 14 evg
Chaisson 13 evg
Archibald 12 evg
Granlund 10 evg
but seeing 8 top 62 for position evg totals is a good start to the potential top 6.

Least complex
Knowing Tippett wants 5 back in Def of GA.
top GA gets you in final 8

Do any of you know the complex player usage that Tippett will structure the team?

hunter1909

WE – ONLY – WANTED – TO – BE – LOVED

Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

That’s it!

Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

rickithebear

Harpers Hair: Sekera is pencilled in as 2RD on the Stars pending the health of Stephen Johns.
His likely partner will be Miro Heiskanen.
I wouldn’t bet against him.

Top 15 HD dman playing against 2 Nd comp when healthy in
Buffalo
LAK
Edm

PolaK Top 60 HD dman
STL
TOR
SJS
TOR again
DAL

Material Elvis

Harpers Hair:

The Oilers were not in a position to give up the kind of assets required to land JT Miller; the Canucks paid handsomely for his services. Ferland, once again, does not warrant a four year contract in my opinion so I’m glad Holland didn’t do that. Leivo, Pearson and players of their caliber are okay but certainly not difference makers. The Oilers are betting that Neal rebounds to be that top 6 winger (plus dumped one of the worst contracts and players on the Flames). A more significant addition will have to wait for now.

All this said, the top 6 isn’t a worry for me at all. GeorgeXs’s work this summer shed a lot of light on this. Goaltending, PK, and bottom 6 production will dictate the Oilers fate this season.

drglen

SK Oiler Fan,

I think that’s the plan.

Harpers Hair

Material Elvis: Still not enough cap space to get an established top 6 winger (were there any available?) this summer.Your scenario subtracts three roster players and adds one top 6 winger.You still need some of that cap space to flesh out the roster.I don’t think Ferland, Connelly, et al warrant 4 year contracts either.And Sekera would have blocked Lagesson or Jones from getting any roster time this year so it’s understandable that they used that strategy.A trade notwithstanding, they really won’t be able to add a legitimate top 6 winger for two more years.

In the last several months, the Canucks have added all of Ferland, JT Miller, Josh Leivo and Tanner Pearson.

Anyone of them would be better than any Oiler winger not named Draisaitl.

Suggesting this can’t be done is just nonsense.

Of course it’s difficult when you’re spending cap space on a “Sea of Granlunds”

Harpers Hair

Scungilli Slushy: Sekera is very likely at the end because of injury. Love the player when healthy we’ll see how he does.

Sekera is pencilled in as 2RD on the Stars pending the health of Stephen Johns.
His likely partner will be Miro Heiskanen.
I wouldn’t bet against him.

Material Elvis

SK Oiler Fan: Its tradition for Oiler preseason to blend into the first 10 games of the reg season. The first 10 dont count the same as the last 72 anyway right? I wonder what kind of start a team would have if they said F it after the 1st exhibition game, sent all the pretenders down, and spent the final 5 or so exhibition games dialling in the group that will play opening night.

Last year they had a good start facing a daunting, road-heavy schedule. The wheels fell off after game 13.

Material Elvis

Harpers Hair: I’ve said this before but will repeat it.
The Oilers should not have bought out Sekera.
They should have bought out Gagner not signed Chiasson or Granlund and used the cap savings to pursue a top six winger.
As it is, they have three players who don’t move the needle much at all.

Still not enough cap space to get an established top 6 winger (were there any available?) this summer. Your scenario subtracts three roster players and adds one top 6 winger. You still need some of that cap space to flesh out the roster. I don’t think Ferland, Connelly, et al warrant 4 year contracts either. And Sekera would have blocked Lagesson or Jones from getting any roster time this year so it’s understandable that they used that strategy. A trade notwithstanding, they really won’t be able to add a legitimate top 6 winger for two more years.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: I’ve said this before but will repeat it.
The Oilers should not have bought out Sekera.
They should have bought out Gagner not signed Chiasson or Granlund and used the cap savings to pursue a top six winger.
As it is, they have three players who don’t move the needle much at all.

They could have done that but the result would be committing term to a marginal top 6 winger who would not move the needle and would essentially have used up most of the cap currency for the next few years. Signing Chiasson to two years aside, I’m happy Holland didn’t commit material cap resources with term to a marginal upgrade. Save that currency.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, Pouzar actually quit the forum for a while due to the general conversation about Nurse.

Find someone to love you the way Pouzar loves Nurse.

2 parts love for Nurse
1 part disdain for no nothing posters who were so quick to write off the young Dman after his rookie season.

pts2pndr

ArmchairGM: ?! How many defensemen score 20+ goals? In the past 3 years it’s only been accomplished twice: Burns with 29 in 16-17 and Rielly with 20 last year. It’s a very unrealistic expectation.

I was in my own way trying to quantify points for the so called number one D. I have not however worked through the math for those so called number one D men as far as points and goals vs defensive acumen. I believe that Nurse will prove to be a first pairing D due his skill set. For a value assessment my thinking was 3 points for a goal 2 points for a primary assist and one point for a secondary assist. It is quite obvious upon reflection this is an over simplification. Back to the drawing board so to speak.

greenshifter

hunter1909,

Oilers 85pts
JP 19 goals

Thanks

gimme shelter

I do not know if Ken is looking at the waiver wire but I am. First player of note is Louis Dominque a goaltender with TB. His saves were over.9 and his GA under 3. ( Cap Friendly). Mike Smith can go on the LTR for pneumonia.
Next Martin Frk RW. With Detroit 2017-18 68 -11-14 = 25. he had good stats in the AHL as well.
Finally yesterday pre-season game of Calgary with Cam Talbot in net. First goal was at the .50 sec.
Anybody out there not believe it wasn’t his first shot?

SK Oiler Fan

OriginalPouzar:
Sounds ilke tomorrow’s lineup at home will be a veteran laden lineup and then the last two games will be used to figure out the last battles which I’m not personally a fan of.

I’d rather have the battles continue tomorrow and then have the last game (or two) for, essentially, the roster and lineup.

Its tradition for Oiler preseason to blend into the first 10 games of the reg season. The first 10 dont count the same as the last 72 anyway right? I wonder what kind of start a team would have if they said F it after the 1st exhibition game, sent all the pretenders down, and spent the final 5 or so exhibition games dialling in the group that will play opening night.

Genjutsu

rickithebear: Marner is one of the very few elite passers who can greatly increase a players goal production.
If he worked on his open HD area positioning and open shot targeting like Draisaitl did.
He could possibly transform himself into a top goal scorer.

But it often does not happen.
what Draisaitl did is rare.

A Boston fan taught me ( much more than a decade ago) missed games is a performance issue.

Another broken wrist on writing arm side.
The ankles, ribs, and non writing hand I can handle.
No one should go thru colapsed vetabrae and heart attack feeling.

Seeing the look on my kids face when I have pre splints, casts and boots is more painful.

Part of my new job.

Take care of yourself Mr. Bear. I hope to be reading your insights for many years to come.

Andy Dufresne

rickithebear: Marner is one of the very few elite passers who can greatly increase a players goal production.
If he worked on his open HD area positioning and open shot targeting like Draisaitl did.
He could possibly transform himself into a top goal scorer.

But it often does not happen.
what Draisaitl did is rare.

A Boston fan taught me ( much more than a decade ago) missed games is a performance issue.

Another broken wrist on writing arm side.
The ankles, ribs, and non writing hand I can handle.
No one should go thru colapsed vetabrae and heart attack feeling.

Seeing the look on my kids face when I have pre splints, casts and boots is more painful.

Part of my new job.

Stay Strong Ricki.

Your kids are lucky to have you

and of course vice versa 🙂

Andy Dufresne

Ivan: This is fantastic.

Thanks Ivan. Thanks REJA.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: I’ve said this before but will repeat it.
The Oilers should not have bought out Sekera.
They should have bought out Gagner not signed Chiasson or Granlund and used the cap savings to pursue a top six winger.
As it is, they have three players who don’t move the needle much at all.

Sekera is very likely at the end because of injury. Love the player when healthy we’ll see how he does.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I expressly mention the warts in a follow up post/reply – at the same time, this team needs the scoring and the offensive IQ that Gagner brings – yes, the cap hit is too high but the cap savings would (will) not bring in a player that can off-set the loss of offence – away from McDavid offence.

A place in the lineup for his is “easier” to find with the “3-center set” which we won’t be seeing any time soon.

I’ve said this before but will repeat it.
The Oilers should not have bought out Sekera.
They should have bought out Gagner not signed Chiasson or Granlund and used the cap savings to pursue a top six winger.
As it is, they have three players who don’t move the needle much at all.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Nurse is tied for 11th in defenseman 5v5 scoring over the past 2 years, with Victor Hedman and Seth Jones. If that isn’t “major point producer” territory I don’t know what is.

Nurse has shown over a sufficiently long sample size that he simply produces points at 5 on 5.

Yes, there is McDavid zoom but all top scoring d-men are zoomed by their offensive forward leaders.

No, he doesn’t always “look great” offensively but, after a certain point, which we are well past, that doesn’t matters, the production speaks for itself.

The ONLY reason for the spike to 40 points last year was PP time for the first time in his career.

Assuming healthy, Nurse is essentially a lock from another 30 points or so at 5 on 5 and his total production will be a function of how much PP time he gets – which could go back to minimal.

OriginalPouzar

ptspndr: Gagner has warts which is why he was demoted to the AHL. He is not strong along the boards and his skating is only average. His offensive IQ is very good. He is not a two way hockey player.

I expressly mention the warts in a follow up post/reply – at the same time, this team needs the scoring and the offensive IQ that Gagner brings – yes, the cap hit is too high but the cap savings would (will) not bring in a player that can off-set the loss of offence – away from McDavid offence.

A place in the lineup for his is “easier” to find with the “3-center set” which we won’t be seeing any time soon.

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr: He may never be a major point producer

Nurse is tied for 11th in defenseman 5v5 scoring over the past 2 years, with Victor Hedman and Seth Jones. If that isn’t “major point producer” territory I don’t know what is.

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr: I am thinking in the 50 – 60 point range but the caveat being goals scored being in the 20 to 25 range. I say this given the amount of time he will have on the ice with the likes of Draisaitl and McDavid.

?! How many defensemen score 20+ goals? In the past 3 years it’s only been accomplished twice: Burns with 29 in 16-17 and Rielly with 20 last year. It’s a very unrealistic expectation.

OriginalPouzar

DarthTu: And so far…. Less injury prone.

I fully appreciate that they’re both young so we can’t really comment on the injuries yet (but Matthews has screwed me over in fantasy a couple of times).

Totally different types of players with different attributes, however, if healthy, Matthews is a top 3 goal scorer in the league – a 100 point player that competes for the Richard yearly.

Key is “if healthy”.

As an aside, a similar “key” with Brock Boeser given his first few years.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy: Yeah, Pouzar actually quit the forum for a while due to the general conversation about Nurse.

Find someone to love you the way Pouzar loves Nurse.

I thought he quit the forum for a while over Caggiula usage?

pts2pndr

jtblack:
pts2pndr,

” He may never be a major point producer”

how many points in a season would he have to get to be considered a major point producer in your eyes?

I am thinking in the 50 – 60 point range but the caveat being goals scored being in the 20 to 25 range. I say this given the amount of time he will have on the ice with the likes of Draisaitl and McDavid.