2019-20 Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers

by Lowetide

If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, then tonight’s game should result in points for the home team. The Philadelphia Flyers played last night in Calgary, and the Oilers were home and dry. It won’t mean a thing after the opening faceoff, and Carter Hart is an emerging story, but a playoff team makes hay when the sun shines.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
  • New Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
  • Lowetide: How will the Oilers compensate when James Neal’s scoring cools off?
  • Lowetide: Raphael Lavoie delivers high-octane offence to lead Oilers prospect performances.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20153-4-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2019: 5-1-0, goal differential +6

A win tonight means we might get through October without drama. I won’t have to bring out stories of the Donner Party and talk about Bonnie Raitt’s sad songs. We can talk about hockey, demon liquor, women with terrible judgement and tell lies about our youth. Yes. That would be nice.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-1-0, 10 points after 6 games

The Flyers played just its fourth game of the season last night, a quality start by Philadelphia led by Travis Konecny and young goalie Carter Hart (who we’ll likely see tonight). I had Philly winning this one in my predictions.

OILERS 2019-20 SCORING

OILERS LINES FIVE-ON-FIVE

This is via Natural Stat Trick and offers insight into usage and success. The top line is flying, Puck IQ tells us (not available yet) the McDavid trio is facing massive elite comps and flattening living things. Nuge is also doing fine work, that line will surprise you once the Puck IQ numbers go public. Expected goals are quality for the third and fourth lines, but neither has delivered at five-on-five.

OILERS PAIRINGS FIVE-ON-FIVE

We’re now getting a more accurate view of Dave Tippett’s usage. On defense, the zone start push via faceoffs goes to Klefbom-Persson, while the elites are being handled mostly by Nurse-Bear (via Puck IQ, their numbers will soon be public). The third pair gets the defensive zone starts. This is great information.

CONDORS 2019-20

Kailer Yamamoto is borderline frightening in his AHL domination so far this season, he’s a terror. The four goals lead the American League, while his shot total (16) ranks No. 7 so far. His even strength goal differential (5-0) reflects just how well things are going on the farm. When will we see him in Edmonton?

It’s difficult to find a downbeat among Condors prospects, although Shane Starrett getting hurt is a bummer. Fun team.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A busy day with lots to discuss. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will discuss the loss to Chicago and tonight’s big game against Philadelphia. Jonah Birenbaum from The Score will talk MLB and the Nationals first World Series berth at 10:40. At 11:05, we chat NFL and MLB with Kris Abbott from Oddsshark. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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judgedrude

VanIsleOil: haha.. I thought the exact same thing as soon as I read LT’s title….

I think that our host missed a great chance for an anecdote about where he was during that game. I was on the road travelling in SK and had to listen to it on the radio.

Sierra

russ99:
Dave Tippett rocks, great postgame presser. Tells it like it is, no sugar coating.

Said what many, but not all, of us thought he’d say

Andy Dufresne

LadiesloveSmid:
OriginalPouzar,

I’m enjoying the game but I’d love for this team to show signs that it’s going to be a playoff caliber team, not just riding a hot percentage run. McDavid can’t score 5P & Koskinen can’t drop a .975 every night.

They have a 46% PP & 92% PK! Bank the points while they can but that bottom 6 needs to be worlds better.

Rome was not built in a decade.

#KennysAGrinder

VanIsleOil

judgedrude:
I don’t know if it was just me…but after seeing the title “Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers”, I had a blood pressure raising flashback to the 1987 SCF, where we faced off against a young goaltender on fire.

Too soon to be talking about playoffs?

haha.. I thought the exact same thing as soon as I read LT’s title….

judgedrude

I don’t know if it was just me…but after seeing the title “Game Seven: Flyers at Oilers”, I had a blood pressure raising flashback to the 1987 SCF, where we faced off against a young goaltender on fire.

Too soon to be talking about playoffs?

Andy Dufresne

leadfarmer:
What was DSF saying about goals per game philly gave up.
Other than shutout of Devils they’ve given up 3 or more goals each game

FUN FACT:

Im not sure people realize the origin of the handle DSF.

Actually stands for DiSinFormation. True Story.

Wilde

Dr. Taboggan:
How long until Mardoy, Benson, and Yamo are called up? I would like to see the bottom six score before the end of the season.

Two could be called up in some weeks and play on a sheltered line with a vet and probably help the team by about five goals or so 5v5, but I think that’s been ruled out since July so we’ll probably see the singular hottest hand in December unless they’re on an 100pt pace or something weird.

e: also it’s possible that Marody never gets to play in the NHL / / is traded regardless of AHL performance

Abbeef

Dr. Taboggan:
How long until Marody, Benson, and Yamo are called up? I would like to see the bottom six score before the end of the season.

I’d like to see a bottom 6 skill line as well (hopefully around Christmas). I would use a combination of Marody/Gagner, Jurco/Benson and Chiasson/Yamamoto. Then have a PK shutdown like of Sheahan, Archibald, and Khaira.

Haas and Nygaard in the pressbox. Russell sent down and Granlund traded or sent down. Probably won’t even have to move Granlund as there will probably be someone on the IR.

russ99

Dave Tippett rocks, great postgame presser. Tells it like it is, no sugar coating.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

How long until Mardoy, Benson, and Yamo are called up? I would like to see the bottom six score before the end of the season.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I honestly think 2pts/gm is probably sustainable for McD over the course of the season. Unreal player.

Kmart99

rickithebear: Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
Compared to open and closed differentiation.
Table scraps!

High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

Just want to confirm:

You are using closed shots as the ones that demonstrate high skill from a goalie since it often represents how well a goalie is able to stay in position and avoid having to move to make a save. So a perfectly placed top corner shot still just hits the shoulder.

If you are a really good positional goalie most “open” shots should only come from tips.

I just want to confirm that you are rewarding goalies for elite level positioning.

Wilde

GMB3:
Only 6 games and the on ice shooting % is high but Connolly is crushing it in Florida. Tops on the team in CF %, and 4th in xGF%.

Looks to be an astute signing early

Burakovsky as well. Wanted that player here so bad.

norm_klassen

#freeganger #bring him home

Pouzar

If we are going with slow and plodding can we at least call up Gagner to center the 4th line?

GMB3

Only 6 games and the on ice shooting % is high but Connolly is crushing it in Florida. Tops on the team in CF %, and 4th in xGF%.

Looks to be an astute signing early

Munny

BlacqueJacque: PDO is going to break its dick off in the Oilers ass at some point this season

BlacqueJacque:
The days of this blog being the place where smart fans post are obviously long behind it.

Yeah, I think you pretty much proved that last statement correct.

Munny

Abbeef:
Wow, definitely being carried by special teams early! I like the look of the defense with Russell on the third pairing and Persson with Klefbom better than tonight’s pairings.

As for the sustainability talk obviously a 857 winning percentage isn’t sustainable.Also having no goals from the bottom six 5v5 isn’t sustainable either, sustainability works both ways with aspects that are well above average and below.

Excellent post.

kgo

Did anyone else notice Benning seemingly grew eyebrows?

https://images.app.goo.gl/NazXctZtEh7ifLWL8

Check out the game tape, late 2nd period, scrum in front of the net there’s a close-up of Benning

Admiral Ackbar

oilersfan:
I think tonight’s poor shot battle was due to travel fatigue

I think shots were 25-18 when the fifth goal was scored so the 27-4 shot drubbing after that was definitely affected by score effects.

Also, McDavid and Drai barely played the third period

It is disheartening seeing the bottom six get so badly caved in shot attempts and zone time

I hope they give Haas a shot over Granlund next game

Oilers tied with Colorado in the entire nhlfor first at five games over .500

I’m bloody happy looking at the standings. That game didn’t feel like a domination though. They ran up the score for about 4 mins in the 2nd and other than the second half of the 2nd, they were pretty badly outplayed. Koski played well (and got some luck) with his defense colapsing well but the whole team effort to organize themselves out of their zone and through the neutral zone was a bit of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

That score, with the shooters that the Flyers have, could have been the opposite score tonight.

I’m happy, I’m elated. But this team has work to do. Tippett can’t be happy with how the ice was tipped tonight. I know we don’t like HDSC, but I’d like to know how many dangerous shots the Flyers had tonight. There were a tonne of point-blank chances. Koski stopped them or they missed the net but we can’t expect that scenario to play out over and over again without an elite goaltender.

N64

OriginalPouzar: OK, you get out your notepad and do that.

I will check out the Oilers in 1st place in the NHL 7 games in.

And 2 teams with 2 digit goal differential. Oilers and Penguins at +10.

Rebillled

OriginalPouzar,

Ah, I just saw 1 Euro, 1 home, 3 road.

and I meant the 3-4 start last year.

jp

rickithebear: Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
Compared to open and closed differentiation.
Table scraps!

High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

Are you saying:

1) The Oilers weren’t bad in the 3rd?

Or,

2) No one can say anything about anything unless they’ve tracked open/closed shots?

JimmyV1965

On the bright side, I think the Flyers are the best team we play this month, other than the Caps oct. 24.

oilersfan

I think tonight’s poor shot battle was due to travel fatigue

I think shots were 25-18 when the fifth goal was scored so the 27-4 shot drubbing after that was definitely affected by score effects.

Also, McDavid and Drai barely played the third period

It is disheartening seeing the bottom six get so badly caved in shot attempts and zone time

I hope they give Haas a shot over Granlund next game

Oilers tied with Colorado in the entire nhl for first at five games over .500

Professor Q

I think that, once McDavid and Draisaitl finally surpass 150 points in a season, the remarkable bit about it will be that they’d have done it with very poor ENG luck.

Think about it.

drglen

Tip should not be happy. One thing, he’s even keel in the wins, even keel in the losses. Philly knows they had the oilers number end of first and in second period. They HAD their legs… there was no fatigue , tired, none of that.. Philly was a well oiled machine locking into gear, .. that simply could not finish. Kosk grabbed a few but so many shots 1 inch off. Philly had us… and couldn’t finish. Connor with an all world play, PP connects.. game slips away.

I hope he’s giving it to them cause most nights, the other team will finish those chances. Philly is a good team, first two lines are equally threatening. They’ll start to get traction.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar: OK, you get out your notepad and do that.

I will check out the Oilers in 1st place in the NHL 7 games in.

Duh!

First thing I did!

Then discuss large affect break down.

rickithebear

OP:
But score affect is the best micro stat to use when all teams play large affect factors the same.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear: Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
Compared to open and closed differentiation.
Table scraps!

High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

OK, you get out your notepad and do that.

I will check out the Oilers in 1st place in the NHL 7 games in.

GMB3

OriginalPouzar: “To each their own”.

How hard is it to fathom that some people enjoy looking at the game beyond the final result? You just inferred with your phrasing that it needs to be one or the other. Why not both

OriginalPouzar

Rebillled:
OriginalPouzar,

I think mostly referring to them starting their season in Europe.

Didn’t look good on us last year.

Koski and the usual suspects get the win tonight.

Koski undefeated.

Oilers won 3 of 4 after they came back from Europe.

Philly has been back from Europe for a week and barely travelled in the last 5 days.

who

jenga66,

OriginalPouzar:
25 shots in the 3rd for the Flyers after the game was over – score effects.

C’mon OP.
The Oilers got absolutely smoked in the 2nd period. While it was a 1 goal game. No score effects there.
Tippett did not look happy in the post game.
GREAT game by Koskinen!

OriginalPouzar

I’d prefer a Lagesson call-up but, considering they are down 2 right shot d-men, probably Jones.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar:
25 shots in the 3rd for the Flyers after the game was over – score effects.

Did you take a piece of paper and mark down how many shots were open and closed ( hit the goalie) in the game.

Score affect is an embarrassing stat.
Compared to open and closed differentiation.
Table scraps!

High danger open shots are bad ( see most goals)

BONE207

GMB3: What’s with people and telling them how to be fans? Who cares.

The analytically inclined will look at the underlying numbers and say “this doesn’t look great to be honest” who are you to tell them they aren’t enjoying it?

People like what they like, some people like looking at hockey beyond the final-score, it doesn’t mean they aren’t enjoying it. I’d surmise that is in fact the type of thing they do like to do… hence them doing it.

I don’t get why this is so hard for some people to understand.

Well Tippett hasn’t seen the underlying numbers but listening to his post-game, I’d say he wasn’t happy with how the result came about. Wait till he sees the gold plated turd melted down. It may be only a Hershey’s kiss melted in your pocket…

OriginalPouzar

YoungerOil:
Has anyone looked into a “Corsi Close” metric, where it measures the even strength Corsi when teams are tied or within one goal of eachother?

IMO this would be a better representation of how a team drives possession, as it does more to elininate score effects.

NST can be sorted by trailing, leading, up 1, down 1, etc.

Rebillled

OriginalPouzar,

I think mostly referring to them starting their season in Europe.

Didn’t look good on us last year.

Koski and the usual suspects get the win tonight.

Koski undefeated.

drglen

Gerta Rauss:
Persson concusion protocol 7-10 days per Coach Tippett

ah… interesting. concussion 7-10 days… should probably be 2 to 4 weeks.. even more. So…. probably there is a plane coming up from Bake. Who’s on it?

I say Jones!

drglen

rickithebear:
Mcdavid 12.5M
7 gm 5G 12A 17P

Draisaitl 8.5M
7gm 6G 9A 15P

Neal 5.75M + .75 retained
7gm 8 G 1A 9P

RNH 6M
7gm 1G 5A 6P

Kassian 1.95M
7gm 3G 3A 6P

Hall 6M
6gm 1G 4A 5P

oooh… Taylor Hall sneaks in. .. Don’t think we could get him for 6.. but if NJ starts to die away here.. phones might be ringing….

Would we trade away Kassian? couple years ago we thought he was so overpaid ” 1.95 for a 4th liner) … seems a bargain now. Sustainable… I don’t see why not actually. Zak was 1st rounder, life is together, has his game, his confidence.. I actually don’t see a fall off from Zak. I wouldn’t trade him either. I’d say he has ‘nurse-like’ oilerness.

Sierra

geowal: So you’re saying we roll into the playoffs this year and face regression next year unless changes are made.
Sign me up!

+1

Gerta Rauss

Persson concusion protocol 7-10 days per Coach Tippett

Side

Starting to wonder if people like stats more than the actual games.

Hand wringing and getting angry over stats that none of us have any control over.

And insist on talking about it during an entertaining victory. Good stuff.

OriginalPouzar

GMB: What’s with people and telling them how to be fans? Who cares.

The analytically inclined will look at the underlying numbers and say “this doesn’t look great to be honest” who are you to tell them they aren’t enjoying it?

People like what they like, some people like looking at hockey beyond the final-score, it doesn’t mean they aren’t enjoying it. I’d surmise that is in fact the type of thing they do like to do… hence them doing it.

I don’t get why this is so hard for some people to understand.

“To each their own”.

BONE207

jp:
Those 2 late goals notwithstanding, Koskinen had a great game tonight.

Interesting take by Ferraro on NBCSN. He’s been talking lots tonight about needing to shoot high on Koskinen, but not at all mentioning his weak glove. Rather he has talked repeatedly about how good Koskinen is down low and how you’re simply not scoring on him unless you go high.

Definitely a different perspective on Koskinen and teams adjusting to him.

Koski should wear a blocker instead of a catching glove. As a kid, a baseball glove worked for me..
Maybe a lacrosse stick?

N64

Professor Q:
Is PDO a wrestling team or something?

Public Displays of Objection

drglen

GMB3: If we get vezina caliber goaltending… maybe.

+1

rickithebear

Mcdavid 12.5M
7 gm 5G 12A 17P

Draisaitl 8.5M
7gm 6G 9A 15P

Neal 5.75M + .75 retained
7gm 8 G 1A 9P

RNH 6M
7gm 1G 5A 6P

Kassian 1.95M
7gm 3G 3A 6P

Hall 6M
6gm 1G 4A 5P

drglen

Goaltending. Stop the puck. We’re getting it. Winning games. At the end of the day that is why we are above all projections here. Weren’t we tagged as the worst 1-2 tandem in the league.. (was that friedman et al, ?) .. If bottom six gamble ( neutral/even with a chance of scoring… not happening but).. is about as called,.. but Goalie gamble is above what was projected, which is happening, .. this is a playoff team… a most unconventional playoff team, but a playoff team.

OriginalPouzar

25 shots in the 3rd for the Flyers after the game was over – score effects.