The Edmonton Oilers are 2-0-0 against the Pacific Division, wins over the Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings. The team needs to deliver handsomely against the division this season, and must be miles better than last year’s 12-15-2 against the Pacific. Tonight’s game won’t be easy, the Coyotes might be better than their 8-4-1 record implies.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Lowetide: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
- New Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors coaching staff continues to mold unheralded players into legit NHL prospects.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Mailbag: Fixing the forward depth, slotting the big three, a Puljujarvi trade and more
- Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
- Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
- Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
- Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
- Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
- Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS AFTER 16 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 6-10-0, 10 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in 2016: 9-6-1, 19 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017: 6-9-1, 13 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2018: 8-7-1, 17 points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in 2019: 10-4-1, 21 points; goal differential +6
This is an amazing run, but are the Oilers close to being this good? The Oilers are third in points and No. 15 in five-on-five goal differential, but are No. 25 in five-on-five Corsi. Which number do they most closely resemble?
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in November 2016: 0-1-1, one point; goal differential -3
- Oilers in November 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in November 2018: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in November 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
Last year’s team used those two victories build on an October that landed two games above .500 Bettman, this year’s team can dream of greater things. The 2016-17 edition finished 12 games over .500 Bettman (47-35-9) and that’s a solid goal for this year’s team. Starting the season with a +5 Bettman in October is a grand beginning.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points after one game
Edmonton has an interesting trio of teams coming to town this week, I bet on a win tonight, but in truth it’s more like a pick ’em. The Coyotes have a similar record to the Oilers, but also have some of those cool underlying numbers some of us hold in high regard. This won’t be an easy game. Conor Garland will score, OEL will earn our respect, probably Clayton Keller does something amazing.
OILERS 2019-20
EVEN STRENGTH POINTS PER 60 (FWDS)
- Leon Draisaitl 4.14
- Connor McDavid 2.73
- Colby Cave 2.34
- Zack Kassian 2.27
- James Neal 1.47
- Alex Chiasson 1.29
- Nuge 1.15
- Tomas Jurco 1.14
- Joakim Nygard 1.09
- Sam Gagner 1.00
- Gaetan Haas 0.91
- Markus Granlund 0.49
- Jujhar Khaira 0.36
Well there are finally 13 forwards who scored a point at even strength so we can post a “list” for the first time this year. Draisaitl is redonk, McDavid about where he should be and the rest are either in small sampleville or crawling from the wreckage. It’s a start. All numbers NST.
CORSI FOR FIVE-ON-FIVE (DEFENSE)
- Brandon Manning 50.83
- Ethan Bear 49.79
- Darnell Nurse 47.74
- Oscar Klefbom 47.36
- Joel Persson 47.32
- Matt Benning 47.12
- Kris Russell 45.32
- Adam Larsson 31.58
Bear the rookie really has been a revelation, Manning has also played well in a depth role. The rest are all huddled in the same area, then Russell who has some kind of magnet in these possession metrics that kills his totals.
PUCK IQ (DFF V. ELITES DEFENSE)
- Darnell Nurse 45.40 (Rel 7.10) 113 mins
- Joel Persson 44.10 (Rel 6.40) 34 mins
- Ethan Bear 43.70 (Rel 4.40) 114 mins
- Oscar Klefbom 41.10 (Rel -0.40) 89 mins
- Brandon Manning 40.60 (Rel -2.50) 16 mins
- Kris Russell 35.80 (Rel -8.00) 68 mins
- Matt Benning 33.10 (Rel -9.90) 45 mins
- Adam Larsson 5.60 (Rel -42.40) 6 mins
This is all Puck IQ versus elites and is miles too soon to quote as gospel. We can take some things away, including usage. It’s strange to see Klefbom playing so little (compared to Nurse-Bear) against elites, wonder if that changes when Larsson returns.
PUCK IQ (DFF V. ELITES FWD)
- Zack Kassian 51.60 (Rel. 17.20) 96 mins
- Leon Draisaitl 49.40 (Rel. 14.70) 104 mins
- Connor McDavid 47.90 (Rel. 11.40) 105 mins
- Alex Chiasson 47.20 (Rel. 7.20) 37 mins
- Tomas Jurco 46.50 (Rel. 7.90) 29 mins
- Markus Granlund 45.50 (Rel. 4.70) 31 mins
- James Neal 42.50 (Rel. 1.50) 61 mins
- Gaetan Haas 42.50 (Rel. 4.60) 12 mins
- Nuge 42.30 (Rel. 1.30) 64 mins
- Colby Cave 32.20 (Rel. -4.30) 12 mins
- Josh Archibald 30.30 (Rel. -15.70) 21 mins
- Patrick Russell 28.50 (Rel. -15.00) 39 mins
- Riley Sheahan 23.10 (Rel. -24.20) 37 mins
- Jujhar Khaira 20.60 (Rel. -26.40) 52 mins
- Sam Gagner 20.30 (Rel. -30.10) 16 mins
- Joakim Nygard 12.70 (Rel. -33.60) 12 mins
Some interesting items here, including the No. 1 line playing major minutes and outplaying the rest of the roster (rel). The line has also been playing in good fortune (6-0 goals versus elites).
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We hit the ice in full stride this morning at 10, TSN1260. We start with Reid Fowler from Draft Kings, we’ll chat NFL weekend and the Monday nighter. Jason Gregor pops in to talk Eskimos, Redblacks and Rick Campbell, plus the Oilers game tonight. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
leadfarmer,
Oh yeah, in that case I fully agree.
jp,
I guess I did mean he was done as a top 6 forward. I should have articulated it better. 15 g and 20 points he had last year is still useful. Just 6.5 mil is a lot for a 3rd line guy
Haha, no. Just funny that he scored the OT winner after you called him ‘done’.
And even if he is in decline he seems well clear of Lucic’s uselessness.
Are you asking me if 2 g and 5 points in 14 games is going to change my mind?
~The maids don’t have to give them flamethrowers. The bugs bring their own and leave them carelessly about the room for the guests to try. ~
For sure they lack top end talent, but everyone in the lineup can contribute. They basically have 2 2nd lines and 2 3rd lines (you could argue 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd).
I don’t know if it’s enough to hold off Vegas, I’m not saying they WILL win the division. But they absolutely could.
Are you sure Stepan’s done?
Rumor has it, Tippett & Tocchet had wager on the game. Tippett is just pissed off that his new team let him down by not beating his old team. Bag skate tomorrow…Bookije it…?
I scanned the comments and read this as ‘Verdad is in an institution’. Strange how the brain does that…
Quite the presser by Tippet tonight naming names.
Chiasson named for getting a chance on the top line and losing it.
Koskinen named for the first weak goal.
Persson named for 2nd goal and overall bad game leading to being benched.
I wonder how the team responds?
I blame the maids. They’re doing it wrong. Give ’em flamethrowers
I thought Koskinen played well tonight. We lost 3-2 in OT. After years of watching goalies get burned for multiple goals, he’s been a breath of fresh air this year.
Thought the Yotes were very meh tonight. This game was ours for the taking. Drai was a beast tonight, but outside the big studs, this team lacks offensive punch. Not sure what context McDavid made his comments, but I agree, we don’t have enough guys who can make plays.
That giveaway by Persson tonight was epic. He wasn’t under pressure and he made a spectacularly weak attempt to keep the puck in the ozone.
I never saw the game, only highlights. As a goalie, I prefer the defense take away the backdoor play so I can focus on the shooter. Darrell needs to discuss this with the keepers & coaches. Or just demolish the guy with the puck. I would endorse that
Every critter has its place in an ecosystem. Where would hotels be without bed bugs?
Verdad is Harper’s hairball. Only comments when the phone is left unlocked & everyone has gone to bed.
Ahh, thank you, I missed his interview. That context helps a great deal.
I wasn’t whining about anything just posting a thought because the intent has been very clear over the last week or so.
This comment by McDavid was in defence of Drai turning the puck over on the first goal when the press question was about turning pucks over.
I think there is way too much being read in to a nothing quote.
I think last year the Oilers lose this game in regulation. They didn’t play their best tonight, but had a good third and salvaged a point. Really encouraging stuff going on, the team has more to give and they are still getting points.
I’d usually hope the Coyotes would go and wax Calgary tomorrow but with the standings – any two point game would be good to see.
?
Rob Brown speculating that Granlund will sit when Nygard is healthy.
(Ie not Cave)
OriginalPouzar,
Only the ones who have called him out.
Don’t get me wrong, IIRC, he’s been banned in the past. But that’s LT’s call, there’s no point in whining about it.
Let him have his say and leave it at that. You don’t have to engage with every single thing you disagree with.
And remember, he hardly saw the 3rd in those games.
there were plays, but not conversions. I think he’s talking about himself.
He has definitely personally insulted posters – this week even.
Lots of saves by Koskinen tonight, .. some tough ones that saved our momentum. Team gave up many surging odd man breakouts in first half of game, .. without Koskinen we don’t get a point here. Kept us close. But he did not have that confident, quick, big, look. He’ll win the next one for us.
Leon is getting the connor treatment at the moment ( Non- calls) .. hacked and slashed and held all night. I think the oil deserved a couple more PP tonight.
Bear was good. I thought Benning was good.
Have to admit to missing Adam Larsson though, ( and maybe not to trade him then…) … aside from Nurse we did not have guys Punishing opposition in the corners. Larsson could help there.. and frankly Lagesson could probably be useful in that role too.
considering that’s pretty much the opposite of what his coach said, I’m worried.
Hear hear!
And all of Lowetide’s merely a stage…
McDavid at the presser: ‘I’m all for protecting the puck, I think weve done a good job of that, but at some point we need to make plays.’
Wonder if we see a move soon.
+1
OriginalPouzar,
A genuine Oiler fan
Not confined to your group think
It is what an exchange of ideas is actually about
Watch the games for 50 years
Fury. Yes. Grade 10 IB English was a long time ago for me.. An eternity..
Shakespeare. Macbeth.
“Life is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Pretty much the best quote of all-time.
OriginalPouzar,
Verdad is an institution here.
And likely in one.
You can’t be banned for having an opinion on the team however wrong.
He doesn’t go after posters. Just don’t engage.
ouch! ……..double ouch!
didn’t want to say anything as Chaisson made some good plays, but, .. if you look at Haas, .. Cave now… I’m not sure Chaisson fits. Not enough zip, speed, tenacity. Same for Granland, though good PK man. I think Chaisson sits when Nyggard returns.
Say, remember Jurco?
“Persson had a tough night. Had to find someone else for the third. Just didn’t have it tonight so we had to play someone else””
I’m not sure why this poster is not prohibited from posting.
HH, for his controversialilty, at least has things to add and can be a positive contributor.
This person is simply a, well, I’m not sure what the word is.
Not exactly complimentary of Chiasson either.
Keeps talking about giving up easy goals (although he’s putting a lot of that on execution not goaltending).
lose a game 3 on 3 because of a 2 on 1? Overtime is a crap shoot and how many have we won because of a 2 on 1 after missed opportunity for opposition at the other end. ? Happened to us tonight. Save would have been sweet, .. might have to reconsider Neal, but nothing on Nurse here. We got beat in overtime on a 2 on 1 and overtimes are designed to end quickly. I thought Koskinen was too deep there.. ? Will be interested to see what McCurdy says. Nurse played a great , hard game.
I think we saw the emergence of Haas tonight, and Khaira ( who I wanted traded a week ago) ..
Basically one save away from a win.
Oilers need to develp some hate for Arizona…. they should be our Darby, not the flames. We’ll be toe and toe with Arizona all the way.
I agree, 100% but I’m not so sure the coach does (and/or Playfair) – remember, they played Manning 7 games in a row.
OriginalPouzar,
Why not?
Acting pre-emptively is the only way to avoid the same fate as last year.
Koskinen is not an NHL goalie
Persson did try to force a puck at the Yote blue line that ended up in his net, but he and Klef keep the puck moving ahead better than Klef with Russel.
Tough gig, being a rookie D.
That first goal was a back-breaker and all three goals were “stoppable”.
He never “looked comfortable” to me in the first half of the game but settled in a bit and did make some solid saves.
His weakest performance of the year, oubviously, and he did get out played by the other tender but, at the same time, I’m not going to throw vitriol at the guy for one “so so” performance.
Tippett is definitely directing some fury at Persson and Koskinen in the post game presser. Maybe Persson is going to sit.
Not if that means Russell on his right side. He and Benning are doing fine on that third pairing. They should continue with Persson until Larsson is ready, even if Persson isn’t working out.
are you related to harpers hair?
Trade Nurse tonight while some forlorn GM fails to see hoe deficient he is in the most crucial elements of any game
Having a decent goalie would have helped
Yeah, Nurse didn’t play that 2 on 1 very well but the odd man rush was created because Neal couldn’t stay with his man 200 ft away.
All Schmaltz did was turn and he left Neal in the dust. Neal just can’t skate well enough to be out there 3 on 3.
Liked Kassian, Haas and Khaira tonight.
Looks like Persson got benched after the 2nd goal.
Koskinen should have had the 1st one.
The OIlers have “harvested” 5 out of 6 possible points over the past three games. Gotta pick up at least two more on this homestand.
John Chambers,
Watch the game
Tying goal changed to Haas.
3rd game in a row with a goal from a depth scorer.
Is this unsustainable positive production from the depth?