Machine Head

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers didn’t put their work boots on until they were down 2-0, but the support players got them back to even before the end of regulation. Overtime is a crapshoot, so there’s not much to bitch about there. What can the discerning Oilers fan complain about this morning? How about those small, niggling details like clearing the zone, not making blind passes and that classic oldie back checking? Lots to work on today.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • New Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett rewarded for his bets on the resilience of Mikko Koskinen, Oilers
  • New Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
  • Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 32 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 14-16-2, 30 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2016: 15-12-5, 35 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 13-17-2, 28 points; goal differential -10
  • Oilers in 2018: 17-12-3, 37 points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in 2019: 18-10-4, 40 points; goal differential +5

Edmonton is in a first place tie with the Arizona Coyotes today, the Oilers technically in first place due to more regulation wins. This year’s team has delivered more than the 2016 club based on goal differential, but that number has been going south for some time. Five on five totals are especially concerning.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 4-0-0, eight points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-2, six points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in December 2017: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2018: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2019: 2-1-1, five points; goal differential -2

Edmonton’s record is better than the goal differential, but these things tend to even out over time. I don’t think the Oilers are going to get five points from the next four games if they’re two goals in the ditch again. Coach Dave Tippett sounded displeased in the postgame. Good.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-1-1, 5 points in 4 games

The schedule this week is most unkind. The next “easy” opponent is several miles in the distance. On the other hand, Edmonton tends to play up to their competition. Maybe this is a good thing?

OILERS 2019-20

It was a weird game on a weird night in an increasingly weird month. All numbers are five on five unless mentioned and NST is the source.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 15:46, going 11-23 Corsi, 6-11 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-5 HDSC. Line had SEVEN giveaways five on five, more in other game states. The video of this line on the second Buffalo goal (wind it all the way back) wasn’t good.

Leon Draisaitl almost scored in the game’s opening minutes but his overall performance was not at his usual level. He didn’t get much done on the PP, he turned the puck over twice in overtime, it was the least Leon game I’ve seen in a long time. Connor McDavid had about four moments in the game where he was threatening to the opposition and the rest of the time things wouldn’t rhyme. I would like to ask him (and Leon) about the ice. Damn puck jumped all night. Zack Kassian stormed the goalie, but three giveaways. First game back, he’ll get back to par. I feel ridiculous being critical of this line. It’s like yelling at Superman. But they have coverage issues. Calling Marian Hossa.

LINE 2 Markus Granlund-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 9:09, 7-8 Corsi, 4-2 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-2 HDSC.

Markus Granlund sure takes a lot of penalties. Riley Sheahan scored a fabulous goal, and a big one in the scheme of things. Of course his backhand to nowhere pass in the first period was the start of the sequence that ended in Buffalo’s first goal. Josh Archibald also had a great chance and worked three effective minutes on the PK.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Nuge-James Neal played 8:33, going 6-4 Corsi, 5-3 shots, no goals and 1-4 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira had a dynamite chance and drew a penalty, Nuge also drew a penalty (and an Oscar nomination), won six of nine and led several sorties (that resulted in no goals). James Neal also had a good look, been some time since he cashed five on five.

LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 6:45, going 1-6 Corsi, 1-1 shots, 1-0 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard had easily his best game, posting a first assist and a PP goal. Hopefully that gets him more playing time. Gaetan Haas posted a PP assist, won seven of eight faceoffs, had an interesting body check (he was one of the those time release ones that takes awhile). Alex Chiasson had a couple of looks but nothing that hit the scoreboard.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 16:55, going 11-19 Corsi, 4-9 shots, 3-3 HDSC and 3-4 offensive-defensive faceoffs.

Darnell Nurse had an assist plus one on the power play, tackled a man at the goal line, had two giveaways. Ethan Bear had several of those dandy passes that change field position in a heartbeat, very effective. He is so good at settling things, passing to a good spot and getting the train headed in a good direction.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 13:27, going 10-8 Corsi, 7-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-2 HDSC, 3-5 offensive-defensive faceoffs.

Oscar Klefbom had two shots and a takeaway, his PK time has been cut out completely so his playing time per game is way down. Joel Persson had a couple of ‘oh no’ moments that mostly involved awareness and dealing with speed. It’s a process. You could see his penalty coming from a mile away beginning with his awkward work behind the net. Had a takeaway. I’m glad the organization is being patient with him. He was ‘also in photo’ quite a bit.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Adam Larsson were 13:04 and 4-14 Corsi, 3-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 2-5 HDSC and 4-6 offensive-defensive faceoffs.

Kris Russell had one shot, two takeaways and a giveaway. Played a lot on the PK. Adam Larsson had two shots, one HDSC, two takeaways. He’s skating better now.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 19 of 22, .864. Oilers are losing ground for several reasons but Smith is eroding and the trend is not a good one. I think the Oilers may have to make a move at some point this season if Smith’s play doesn’t recover.

A REQUEST

Everything you have read above was written before my head hit the pillow last night. Ordinarily I would have time to tack on a few things at the end here, and then promote the show. However, I had to spend some time this morning deleting posts that were over the line (and their responses). This is happening a lot lately. I don’t want to delete posts, time people out, or ban you. However, I’m going to starting now. Time outs for vulgar, insane or vicious political posts will be one year in length. Thanks.

OILERS FIVE ON FIVE GOAL DIFFERENTIAL, OCTOBER C’S

  1. Connor McDavid 17-7 (+10)
  2. Nuge 8-4 (+4)
  3. Riley Sheahan 0-8 (-8)
  4. Gaetan Haas 1-3 (-2)
  5. Colby Cave 1-2 (-1)

October was a strong month for the Oilers (9-4-1) and the two big centers were +14 during that time. Remember, this would be against elite competition. Riley Sheahan, also facing some tough competition, was getting fed badly.

OILERS FIVE ON FIVE GOAL DIFFERENTIAL, NOVEMBER C’S

  1. Colby Cave 1-0 (+1)
  2. Connor McDavid 16-16 (0)
  3. Gaetan Haas 4-4 (0)
  4. Riley Sheahan 4-5 (-1)
  5. Nuge 4-6 (-2)

A change in the weather for sure, the top two centers no longer have those handsome differentials at five on five. Some recovery from the bottom-six centers helps.

OILERS FIVE ON FIVE GOAL DIFFERENTIAL, DECEMBER C’S

  1. Nuge 0-0 (0)
  2. Gaetan Haas 0-0 (0)
  3. Riley Sheahan 1-2 (-1)
  4. Connor McDavid 1-3 (-2)

Early in the month but the trend isn’t a good one.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. We have a rocking show for you, starting with Derek Van Diest from Postmedia (Sun, Journal). We’ll talk last night’s game, Krueger comments and Tippett’s scrums. Jason Gregor pops in at 11 to talk Oilers weekend and the games to come, plus the football weekend/Eskimos coach. Zig Fracassi from SiriusXM NFL will talk about the Monday nighter at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Thanks!

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Munny

v4ance: Mr Robot’s second season spent too much time in the ‘mental’ weeds and lost a lot of momentum and viewers from the acclaimed 1st season.The thrid season was better but still not as good as the first.

This last season makes all the set up worth it.There is an episode in which Rami Malek deservesan Emmy win.An absolutely devastating performance.You’ll know it when you see it.The final season is tracking to be the best season as long as they don’t “Game of Thrones” it.

I know Watchmen isn’t your cup of tea but I find it more watchable than Swamp Thing or Doom Patrol.I saw a few positive reviews of Doom Patrol but I had to force myself to get to the end of the first season.

To me, Doom Patrol has some elements that you normally don’t see in mainstream formulaic “comic book” adaptations but in the end, the characters weren’t engaging.If I wanted to see a bunch of tragically flawed people doing stupid shit, I just have to review the Oilers and their management from 2000 til now.

Thanks for the reply!

I will eventually gear up the enthusiasm. At least Mr. Robot has a single narrative and an ending, which elevates from the realm of TV’s typical nighttime soap.

ArmchairGM

Wilde: Observing one of Yessa’s AHL games again, from a much more clinical, after-the-fact standpoint, is infuriating. I was one of many that gave Hitchcock a ton of rope on it. Un-fucking-believable. Set him free.

This is a guy who is leading Liiga in CF% (20+ GP) and has a league-leading +5.92 Corsi differential per game! The next best guys are his linemates, at +4.75 Cd per game, so nobody is even close. His goal differential isn’t bad either: +0.75 goals per game. He and his linemates lead the league in this category (forwards, 20+ games), only 2 other guys in the league are above +0.70/GP.

Jesse has been on the ice for just 8 GA in 28 games – only a handful of players boast better numbers – and yet is one of the league’s premier offensive threats at the same time. Hopefully other teams are watching.

v4ance

Munny: Mandalorian has been a disappointing effort, considering the money and talent behind it.

But still galactically better than Watchmen.

I’ve been trying to work up the excitement to watch the final season of Mr. Robot, but the excitement hasn’t happened yet.

I have no idea why I bother with TV.It’s a blight on the brain.

Mr Robot’s second season spent too much time in the ‘mental’ weeds and lost a lot of momentum and viewers from the acclaimed 1st season. The thrid season was better but still not as good as the first.

This last season makes all the set up worth it. There is an episode in which Rami Malek deserves an Emmy win. An absolutely devastating performance. You’ll know it when you see it. The final season is tracking to be the best season as long as they don’t “Game of Thrones” it.

I know Watchmen isn’t your cup of tea but I find it more watchable than Swamp Thing or Doom Patrol. I saw a few positive reviews of Doom Patrol but I had to force myself to get to the end of the first season.

To me, Doom Patrol has some elements that you normally don’t see in mainstream formulaic “comic book” adaptations but in the end, the characters weren’t engaging. If I wanted to see a bunch of tragically flawed people doing stupid shit, I just have to review the Oilers and their management from 2000 til now.

Wilde

Bakersfield Condors v. Colorado Eagles; Nov 17, 2018; 5-on-5; Game Totals:

66CF – 36CA / / (64.71%)
41FF – 27FA / / (60.29%)
3GF – 1GA / / (75.00%)

Three Stars:

#1: Tyler Benson (2.97 Game Score) – 3 shot attempts, 8 shot assists(!), 45.83 (primary) contribution %, 24CF-10CA (70.59%), 2GF-0GA, 2 (primary) assists

#2: Jesse Puljujärvi (2.60 Game Score) 9 shot attempts (!), 3 shot assists, 50.00 (primary) contribution %, 24CF-9CA (72.73%), 2GF-0GA, 1 goal, 1 penalty drawn

#3: Josh Currie (2.08 Game Score) 5 shot attempts, 3 shot assists, 34.78 (primary) contribution %, 23CF-11CA (67.65%), 2GF-0GA, 1 goal

Observing one of Yessa’s AHL games again, from a much more clinical, after-the-fact standpoint, is infuriating. I was one of many that gave Hitchcock a ton of rope on it. Un-fucking-believable. Set him free.

Wilde

Bakersfield Condors v. Colorado Eagles; Nov 17, 2018; 5-on-5; After Two:

42 CF – 24 CA
31 FF – 17 FA
0 GF – 1 GA

Top F – Jesse Puljujärvi (1.08 Game Score) 6 shot attempts, 2 assists, 53.3 (primary) contribution %, 15CF-5CA, 1 penalty drawn

Top D – Caleb Jones (0.72 GS) 4 shot attempts, 0 assists, 22.22 (primary) contribution %, 18CF-11CA, 1 penalty drawn

Wilde

Ah, now I remember why I threw this game in the trash. The VOD bugs out at what should be the 2nd period and appears to skip right through the beginning of the 2nd period.

Wilde

Lowetide,

and Russell I think

e: confirmed Marody was up at this time-

https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/edm-vs-sjs/2018/11/20/2018020317#game=2018020317,game_state=final,game_tab=stats

Also, half of the 2 and 4lines’ shifts have been with Callahan and Christoffer swapped, so Gamba-Malone-Callahan and Polei-Espo-Christoffer

Bakersfield Condors v. Colorado Eagles; Nov 17, 2018; 5-on-5; after Period One:

24 CF – 10 CA
18 FF – 7 FA
0 GF – 1 GA

Top F – Jesse Puljujärvi (0.78 Game Score) 5 shot attempts, 0 assists, 50.00 contribution %, 10CF-0CA

Top D – Ryan Stanton (0.66 Game Score) 2 shot attempts, 0 assists, 16.67 contribution %, 12CF-1CA

godot10

drglen:
You have to find room for Bouchard on the team next year don’t you?

NO. You make Bouchard push someone out. And then you make room for him.

jp

godot10: Jones (and Manning) for Vatanen.Tippett needs a RD to play with Klefbom.

Interesting idea. But who do they move to fit Vatanen’s salary? Are you thinking Larsson out? Or an additional asset to move a player nobody wants?

JimmyV1965

Ridiculous conversation. Canucks have four top six forwards. We have three. Two of ours happen to be amongst the best in the league. Arguing with HH about this is like spitting in the wind.

Wilde

Retro-tracking another game from last winter that I got lost in my old hardcopy system:

Bakersfield Condors v. Colorado Eagles; Nov 17, 2018; 5-on-5, first run:

Benson – Currie – Puljujärvi
Gambardella – Malone – Christoffer
Yamamoto – Vesel – Hebig
Polei – Esposito – Callahan

Lagesson – Jones
Lowe – Bear
Stanton – Day

jp

norm_klassen:
Heard on inside sports RNH and Drai on the same line
Could he interesting anybody got stats on that?

Interesting line changes by Tippett for sure. The Nuge-Draisaitl numbers aren’t pretty though.

Since the Oilers were last in the playoffs
RNH-Draisaitl together (without McDavid) – 144 minutes
45.7% Corsi
49.5% Shots
40.9% Goals (9-13)
45.3% xGoals

So that’s not encouraging. More fun are Nuge-Draisaitl-McDavid all together (44 minutes)
56.1% Corsi
63.2% Shots
87.5% Goals (7-1)
63.0% xGoals

I don’t guess we’ll see much of that though, but the rates are 9.5 GF/60 and 1.35 GA/60.

Rates for Nuge and Draisaitl are 3.05 GF/60 and allowing 4.4 GA/60. They might as well get Kassian to join them.

In terms of their scoring, Draisaitl has scored 4.34 P/60 with Nuge (not sure how to remove the also McDavid minutes from the scoring numbers though).
Nuge has scored 2.71 P/60 with Draisaitl (sometimes also McDavid).

jp

Harpers Hair: Good lord.

Jesse has never scored 13 goals in any league.

Oh, Jesse actually has scored 30 goals in a season (U18 league in Finland)

Are you using hockeyDB or something? This one has way more stats: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/152117/jesse-puljuj%C3%A4rvi

I’m sure you could put them to use.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Good lord.

Jesse has never scored 13 goals in any league.

Because we know The Joe Colborne whisperer knows all about forwards
Now I’m sure you can go find a bridge to troll under

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
You mentioned top 6 play and I’ve simply posted points that are relevant.

Nothing cherry picked about production in the top 6 to talk about ability in the top 6.

That’s nice.

leadfarmer

I guess we know who buys the generic NHL jerseys
“Who do we cheer for”
“Every team but the Oilers”
“Which one of them”
“It Doesn’t matter”
“Go Western Conference and sometimes eastern conference Go!!”

Harpers Hair

jp: Good Lord, Elias Pettersson and JT Miller has never scored 30 goals in any league.

Good lord.

Jesse has never scored 13 goals in any league.

OriginalPouzar

You mentioned top 6 play and I’ve simply posted points that are relevant.

Nothing cherry picked about production in the top 6 to talk about ability in the top 6.

jp

Harpers Hair: Of course Jesse butts heads with everyone and has never scored 30 goals in any league..
He has almost zero value.

Good Lord, Elias Pettersson and JT Miller has never scored 30 goals in any league.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Again, how to you reconcile your argument about “playing in the top 6” and then post non 5 on 5 stats? “Playing in the top 6” is playing at 5 on 5 where Kassian outscores Miller 19-14.

You are the one posting stats that have absolutely nothing to do with the statement you are trying to defend.

Good grief.

You want to cherry pick a stat that shows your boy is a prince.

Go for it…Kassian is a shlub.

Harpers Hair

Here come the Flames.

5th win in a row.

5-4 over Colorado.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers: Kassian would be a third line player on the Canucks…if he he could keep his job at all.

They’re already kicked him to the curb once.

To use anything other than contribution to winning is more than disappointing.

JT Miller is outscoring him 31-19.

Why not quit why you’re behind?

Again, how to you reconcile your argument about “playing in the top 6” and then post non 5 on 5 stats? “Playing in the top 6” is playing at 5 on 5 where Kassian outscores Miller 19-14.

You are the one posting stats that have absolutely nothing to do with the statement you are trying to defend.

OriginalPouzar

normklassen:
Heard on inside sports RNH and Drai on the same line
Could he interesting anybody got stats on that

Yes, the lines were posted around 11-noon

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: You mentioned “the top 6” so we aren’t talking about the PP, we are talking about playing on one of the top two lines –5 on 5 play.

Kassian has more goals than any Canuck 5 on 5 and more points than any Canuck 5 on 5.

To use anything other than 5 on 5 is changing the conversation – expected but disappointing.

Kassian would be a third line player on the Canucks…if he he could keep his job at all.

They’re already kicked him to the curb once.

To use anything other than contribution to winning is more than disappointing.

JT Miller is outscoring him 31-19.

Why not quit why you’re behind?

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Yeah.

Kassian isn’t zoomed by McDavid and Draisailtl at all. (phhhtt)

Boeser is outscoring him 28-19.

Virtanen has almost as many points as Kassian but he plays on the third line.

Horvat is outscoring Nuge 24-16…both playing second line minutes.

Tanner Pearson has one less point than Neal but doesn’t get #1PP time like Neal.

The Oilers are a 2/3 line team… and a bunch of junk.

You mentioned “the top 6” so we aren’t talking about the PP, we are talking about playing on one of the top two lines – 5 on 5 play.

Kassian has more goals than any Canuck 5 on 5 and more points than any Canuck 5 on 5.

To use anything other than 5 on 5 is changing the conversation – expected but disappointing.

norm_klassen

Heard on inside sports RNH and Drai on the same line
Could he interesting anybody got stats on that?

Harpers Hair

meanashell11: It’s called First Footing. I lived in Aberdeen for 7 years.

Yep…that’s it.

Johnny skid

Harpers Hair: The Oilers are a 2/3 line team… and a bunch of junk.

you again have something in common here.

Harpers Hair

Caller Zen: Andrew, you really are world-class.

Thanks.

drglen

Munny:
I’m cheering for you LT but this is an ugly damn football game.

Its even ugly on the radio and that’s not easy to do.

meanashell11

Harpers Hair: My sister lived in Scotland for a long period back in the day.

I visited her twice…once over the New Year.

There is a Scottish tradition that it is very good luck to have a tall dark haired man be the first to cross the threshold in the new year.

Since I qualified on both counts, I was greeted at the door by a full tumbler of scotch at the numerous homes we visited and of course it would have been very bad manners not to drain said tumbler.

The brain damage that resulted, however, was not enough to convince me to eat haggis or the other delicacies like blood pudding on offer.

There are some decent curry shops in Aberdeen though and I can completely understand why curry is a national dish.

It’s called First Footing. I lived in Aberdeen for 7 years.

drglen

Munny: Yes, but Hitchcock has bought up every copy.

thats funny

tileguy

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Slow clap.

Munny

I’m cheering for you LT but this is an ugly damn football game.

Munny

godot10: Does Clare Drake have any books?

Yes, but Hitchcock has bought up every copy.

Caller Zen

Harpers Hair: You know Kassian, Nuge and Neal would be bottom six forwards on the Canucks, right>?

Andrew, you really are world-class.

Munny

SkatinginSand: I had a discussion with Ashley, who I respect greatly for her analytical ability, as to whether the Oilers are playing a man to man or 2-1-2 zone defense. (I still believe that I am right)

I thought you were both right.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: You realize that Zack Kassian has more 5 on 5 goals than anyone on the Canucks, right?

You realize that Zack Kassian has more 5 on 5 points than anyone on the Canucks, right?

Before you even start, yes, Boeser is zoomed by Pettersson and JT Miller (i keep reading about how good he is) – not to mention 170 minutes with Hughes.

Yeah.

Kassian isn’t zoomed by McDavid and Draisailtl at all. (phhhtt)

Boeser is outscoring him 28-19.

Virtanen has almost as many points as Kassian but he plays on the third line.

Horvat is outscoring Nuge 24-16…both playing second line minutes.

Tanner Pearson has one less point than Neal but doesn’t get #1PP time like Neal.

The Oilers are a 2/3 line team… and a bunch of junk.

OriginalPouzar

Woody confirmed that Starrett not playing this past Saturday (after returning and playing well the previous weekend) was managing his health. They want to make sure he is comfortable and they are comfortable that re-injury isn’t a possibility. They aren’t sure if he’ll be available for this week’s 3 games.

Sigh.

drglen

Kinger_Oil.redux: – So I don’t know what the solution is, but possession just isn’t a good measure as a baseline in hockey. Yet its so ingrained. Most games that a team wins: thier “possession” stats aren’t great, becausee when one team is ahead, both teams change tactics.

I like this point. I’m thinking on our team of some great shifts in recent games by Khaira and Drai, tons of possession along the walls and corners. Do they lead to goals? I’m not sure it does but I’m quite sure it leads to more penalties, and , kind of paraphrasing something that Brian Burke implied between periods one time, that the team with the greater possession and pressure will in the refs eyes seem to have ‘earned’ a penatly or a higher likelyhood that a marginal call could be called, that shift or the next shift.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV,

Sorry…..

Then again, its not like its interrupted any other hockey talk going on right now.

drglen

You have to find room for Bouchard on the team next year don’t you? Let’s assume they find a way to move Chris russell.. They should probably be looking to move Adam larsson as well….. .. so at a minimum they need to be grooming in Jones and Lagesson. i don’t think they should trade those guys. I personally feel that Jones has a higher tradgectory than Persson. …. …. hmm.. so… for Holland it really has to be about how close we are to securing a playoff spot and that directly relates to Russell and Larrson, … you cannot afford to trade those guys unless you are damn sure.. you’ve got the equivalent to plug in the lineup. So.. I really think they need to give those Baker guys a chance to play RIGHT NOW. .. so Lagesson… we should and need to know what he do Right now.. because to me the player type he best replaces, from the bit i’ve seen, is Larrson. I think there will be strong interest for Larrson and Russell as depth D for contending teams… out of conference. of the two, Russel might hve the most value at the moment as a PK D specialist, but I think both guys will be highly tradeable and not for lowest value, at the deadline to an east conference contender. Holland should not be packing our D prospects at all because we’re going to need them, but he does need to move out Larrson and Russell and they have made a mistake in not having a look at Lagesson, and perhaps it was a mistake to roll the dice on Persson at the expense of those other two. Especially the Matt Benning out at the moment.. have a look at Lagesson. Even if we went 4-6 in a 10 game audition that can be recovered in the new year. Anyway rambling D thoughts.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: You know Kassian, Nuge and Neal would be bottom six forwards on the Canucks, rightgt?

You realize that Zack Kassian has more 5 on 5 goals than anyone on the Canucks, right?

You realize that Zack Kassian has more 5 on 5 points than anyone on the Canucks, right?

Before you even start, yes, Boeser is zoomed by Pettersson and JT Miller (i keep reading about how good he is) – not to mention 170 minutes with Hughes.

Kinger_Oil.redux

SkatinginSand,

– Thanks for this, and Oilin4 for starting the conversation.

– Possession is to my mind such a flawed measure as the base for hockey evaluation statistically. The frequency with which possession is taken away, or no team has possession, or has the puck but doesn’t have control, or the puck is being chased, or the play is away from the puck: all of this is far greater than the actual time that a team has controlled possession of the puck and is able to do something measurable, that the other team is able to respond to.

– Contrast this with B-Ball, where possession is so defined, they have to have a 24 second clock to limit the time one team has possession. And of course in football, possession is based on downs, and only one team has possession, then the other team does. And baseball there are only a few outcomes from each pitch: and the stats in baseball are way cool because of length of season

– So I don’t know what the solution is, but possession just isn’t a good measure as a baseline in hockey. Yet its so ingrained. Most games that a team wins: thier “possession” stats aren’t great, becausee when one team is ahead, both teams change tactics.

– Hockey is far more a game of trying to gain possession through attrition in a series of very fast battles, at very high speed, were in a few seconds a goal occurs. Possession isn’t methodical like in the B-Ball, or football where only team has ball other team is playing defence

– The amount of time that one team has actual possession is minuscule vs the other sports. The shift from Defense to Offense occurs so quickly and often, or there is no possession at all: that’s different than all the other sports

– Soccer is another beast altogether, but possession matters a lot: its just really hard to translate possession into scoring: scoring is very difficult, and teams with less skill can compensate by playing a system that makes it more difficult

– Plus the goal posts get moved all the time with stats in Hockey. Correlation and causation isn’t really well understood given the dearth of data. Hockey is just so much faster than the other sports

– At the end though, after playoffs, most every year all the pro leagues seem to do a good job of identifying the best team, and a worthy champion emerges. And of course some Cinderalla stories in all sports (hi St-Louis, or Vegas before). But for the most part, the best teams win most of the time. (Baseball being the toughest, as in a 7 game series, with 3-4 starters per team, its a little more random)

– Long one: bottom line: Stats for Hockey is very primative, and that’s partly because hockey is such a difficult game to measure given its speed and attrition vs other sports IMO

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair: You know Kassian, Nuge and Neal would be bottom six forwards on the Canucks, right>?

Please OP. Don’t respond to this. It’s not worth it.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Yes, too many overpaid bottom 6 forwards signed to term.

You know Kassian, Nuge and Neal would be bottom six forwards on the Canucks, right>?

Munny

Todd Macallan: Nice Mandalorian reference for all us nerds out there

Mandalorian has been a disappointing effort, considering the money and talent behind it.

But still galactically better than Watchmen.

I’ve been trying to work up the excitement to watch the final season of Mr. Robot, but the excitement hasn’t happened yet.

I have no idea why I bother with TV. It’s a blight on the brain.

SkatinginSand

Oilin4,

Late to the party, just got back from a day in hell.

First of all, hockey is extremely difficult to analyze, especially on TV. Recently, I had a discussion with Ashley, who I respect greatly for her analytical ability, as to whether the Oilers are playing a man to man or 2-1-2 zone defense. (I still believe that I am right)

Hockey is different from most other team sports because possession is very difficult to maintain. Things like screen setting must be subtle, because it is illegal. (Then again, so is hooking and holding, but I digress)

Hockey is also mired in antiquated thought. It was not until the 1990s that the Canadiens stunned the hockey world by playing an actual man to man defense, even though basketball has used it since James Naismith times. In basketball, however, players pick up their check when they or the other team’s player enters the game. This, obviously does not work for hockey, and players pick up the player they are checking on zone entry.

In my time in the hockey world, there was an alarming lack of understanding of tactics and strategy even in the coaching world. I had a conversation with a parent of a bantam AAA player whose coaches wanted to play man to man defense. However, in their lack of understanding, they had their defensemen on opposition defense, wingers on wingers etc. I literally did not know what to say.
In my short and distinctly underwhelming time as a junior head coach, it was discouraging how many kids had never been exposed to simple concepts like sagging zone defence.
I have been extremely lucky to have been exposed to incredible hockey minds, people like Clare Drake and Billy Moores. Other people, less famous, were also important, like John Stevenson, who taught what little I know of goaltending.
Reading everything I could find on hockey strategies was rewarding. Reading Tarasov’s “Soviet Hockey” was eye opening, someone in the 70’s who thought creatively.
The internet has great resources, and if you take the time, it is very rewarding. The first time you notice a team play a box and one defense on McDavid will be very satisfying.

I