2019-20 Game 33: Hurricanes at Oilers

by Lowetide

I’ll be honest, I’d rather not lose a Game 7. Given the choice, make it to the finals or lose in a Game 7, I’ll take an earlier loss. Too painful. Don’t need no memories hangin’ round.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers recall Caleb Jones, one of their most plausible trade chips
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘These games are not coming back’: Oilers lament frustrating week at home
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett rewarded for his bets on the resilience of Mikko Koskinen, Oilers
  • Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
  • Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 33 GAMES

  • Oilers in 201514-17-2, 30 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2016: 16-12-5, 37 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 14-17-2, 30 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2018: 18-12-3, 39 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2019: 18-10-4, 40 points; goal differential +5

There are three teams who are similar (2016, 2018, 2019) through 32 games, and of course the 2016 and 2018 teams headed in different directions. There is potential for a crossroads period here between now and Christmas, as the Oilers are facing some tough teams in the coming days.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 5-0-0, 10 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-1-2, six points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in December 2017: 3-2-0, six points; goal differential +8
  • Oilers in December 2018: 4-1-0, eight points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in December 2019: 2-1-1, five points; goal differential -2

I have tonight as a loss for Edmonton, meaning this year’s team will be trailing previous December runs with McDavid. Goal differential also poor. Plenty of room to grow.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-1-1, 5 points in 4 games

A win tonight and the Oilers will have covered my prediction, while a loss would put the team at a point per game. Edmonton’s ability to avoid losing streaks, and to gather Bettmans while ye may, have been a major help.

TRADING YOUNG PLAYERS

The Oilers rumour mill is a gas, and reflects the small town nature of this beautiful city. Edmonton is a city of conversation. Text and calls, parsing Bob on the radio, nudging a trade possibility forward via insiders like our own Frank Seravalli from the national side. Maybe Ryan Rishaug or Mark Spector finds out something or an out of town reporter (Garrioch? Russo?) fills in more of the picture. Fans, who have come to know this as ‘how it works’ are amazingly patient and innovative: Fans not only get the trades right, sometimes their trade ideas are better than the ones who find their way to the league office. Just as you can never question the authenticity of the wonderful food being made in various restaurants and cafes, the homemade trade is a unique and wonderful experience.

My least favourite type of trade is ‘young draft pick who hasn’t fully matured for short term return’ although that has worked over the years. Folks, trading youth for experience only makes sense when you are ready to push for a championship. I count trading for a signed Taylor Hall as wise, I don’t count trading for an impending free agent Taylor Hall as anything but folly. How many good young players has this organization traded away for an experienced return?

  1. Walt Poddubny to Toronto for Laurie Boschman, March 1982.
  2. Martin Rucinsky to Quebec for Ron Tugnutt, March 1992.
  3. Martin Gelinas to Quebec for Scott Pearson, June 1993.
  4. Miro Satan to Buffalo for Barry Moore, March 1997.
  5. Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene to LA Kings for Lubo, June 2008.

Oilers traded youth for youth, age for youth and everywhere in between, but these are the trades that come to me instantly (along with a megascrew deal involving Adam Graves).

WINTER TOP 20 PROSPECTS

The winter list is up, I broke out the top 5 individually and the rest are listed and reviewed in today’s piece at The Athletic. I don’t especially enjoy the idea of trading any of Tyler Benson or Caleb Jones or Dmitri Samorukov being sent away, but a trade for an expiring contract (forward) who gets signed is a different matter. Would the Oilers deal Evan Bouchard? Philip Broberg? Ethan Bear? No sir, don’t believe they would do it. The first round 2020 pick? Better be a signed Taylor Hall driving to Ford Hall when the news breaks.

If you haven’t subscribed (or didn’t renew) you can do so by clicking this link at the cost of $4.19 a month for a year. Makes a great gift, too.

OILERS 2019-20

Who knows how long these lines will last, honestly feels strange running 97 without one of 29 or 93. We’ll see. It would be a travesty to waste McDavid even for one night. I get the idea of needing second line scoring but the organization has other options. I love the No. 2 line, wish the team had a strong No. 1 LW option than Nygard. He is playing well, maybe Tippett catches lightning in a bottle.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, lots of fun and hopefully more clarity on the Caleb Jones recall. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will talk new lines and the tough schedule ahead. Andrew Peard and Corey Graham will pop in just after 11 to talk Oil Kings and we’ll replay the Teddy Bear toss audio (it was awesome). We’ll also chat Philadelphia Eagles, who won’t go away. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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BONE207

Lowetide:
Dear Verdad,

I may have to filter your posts, you are absolutely overwhelming the board. I’ll see how things go today, but my guess is you have 30 posts in this GDT. As your posts tend to be similar, it has the overall effect of forcing people to respond. So. I’ll let you decide. Can you pull back your number of posts? Can you post something more provocative? We wait.

Do you think after each post, he punches a hole in the wall? I see someone who is walking around in circles, typing like mad, then pow, another drywall casualty. Maybe he is holed up in some abandoned warehouse like some comic book character. I don’t know…

JimmyV1965

verdad2.0:
JimmyV1965,

Dzingel was available
Oilers passed
Opted for more endless talentless forwards
That is on Holland
Hanging on to Russell and Larsson is mindless

Dzingel had the lowest time on ice of any forward other than Gauthier. There’s a reason for that b

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

ArmchairGM,

I agree wholeheartedly here.

All season they were cutting off the cross seem passes but last night the defense (Russell and Nurse along with Nuge at 5v5) completely lost track of the dangerous man allowing easy tap ins backdoor. Its always tricky assigning blame on those goals though because you can’t let the net front guy off the hook for allowing the cross pass in the first place but still, gotta mark the high danger man.

I’m gonna go against the grain and lay a load of the blame on Kassian for that back-breaker penalty. First he whacked Reimer, which is no biggie, but then once the curfuffle started he grabbed a hold of his mask and may have given him a shot. It may be rare that a ref pulls one guy out for a penalty in scrum between players but when you get tangled up with the goalie (especially when you’re a known quantity like Kassian) you’re playing with fire. That was a very bad position to get yourself into when you’re only down a goal with ten minutes left to get it back. Very very poor decision making IMO. Its too bad because otherwise he was all heart in the comeback before that (silly penalty in the 1st aside).

verdad2.0

JimmyV1965,

Dzingel was available
Oilers passed
Opted for more endless talentless forwards
That is on Holland
Hanging on to Russell and Larsson is mindless

verdad2.0

Material Elvis,

He is paid to try
And failed to do so
And the team is getting worse and worse
He chose not to add talent but rather endless garbage and keep garbage
And this game exposed

Waive Khaira this morning for starters

ArmchairGM

JimmyV1965:
Thought the Oil played well again tonight. Great comeback. The Canes PP was frickin amazing. Geez, they can whip that puck around. I can’t really blame Koskinen for those goals other then the last one.

The big difference was finishers.They have em. We don’t. For all the cycling and ozone pressure, we simply don’t have the guys who can put the puck in the net.

Saw Drai really bad tonight. It’s probably a good idea to stop making blind backhand passes when none of them are hitting. I thought Jones had a good game though. Nice to see.

If they keep playing like this, the wins should come. Should being the key word here. Just hope they don’t get too discouraged and start playing worse.

I agree with much of this, with the exception of the Canes PP. I think it was more of a poor Oilers PK that led to 3/4 conversion rate. The Oilers have the #1 road PK in the league and the #24 home PK – it’s those damn traffic cone sweaters. Change over to the traditional blue and they’ll be top-10 in the league.

Drai was bad last night but IMO some struggles are to be expected with new linemates. I think that duo has some promise and I’d like to see them stay together for a few games to see if anything rhymes. They’re both so smart… a guy like Benson might be the perfect compliment. Khaira had a terrible game too, but when he’s on it that line will be a load to handle in every facet of the game.

The key takeaway for me was just how dominant the 1-line was last night. If they can play at least 75% as good as that every night and the 2nd line starts to gel, watch out! McDavid was FIRE, Kassian too. Nygard brings some good things and I think the finishing will come, I’d leave these guys together for a few week too in order to get them comfortable. Nygard has a history as a goal scorer, he’ll get over the yips soon enough. I think he’s rushing plays and messing them up because of it, he’ll settle in and give McDavid a third shooting option.

Overall, not a terrible game. If the PK allows 1 of 4 (reasonable) then it’s a 3-3 game late in the third and I don’t think Koskinen gives up that last one.

Material Elvis

JimmyV1965:
Thought the Oil played well again tonight. Great comeback. The Canes PP was frickin amazing. Geez, they can whip that puck around. I can’t really blame Koskinen for those goals other then the last one.

The big difference was finishers.They have em. We don’t. For all the cycling and ozone pressure, we simply don’t have the guys who can put the puck in the net.

Saw Drai really bad tonight. It’s probably a good idea to stop making blind backhand passes when none of them are hitting. I thought Jones had a good game though. Nice to see.

If they keep playing like this, the wins should come. Should being the key word here. Just hope they don’t get too discouraged and start playing worse.

I think this is all pretty accurate. The lack of forward scoring talent is a real downer. Draisaitl wasn’t sharp and it doesn’t help him that he’s playing with two non-factors (Nuge is okay) and trying to force bad plays. They really need to find him a scoring winger in the offseason. Currently, he looks like he could use a week off to recharge.

JimmyV1965

verdad2.0:
OriginalPouzar,

Without fundamental change this slide is one way and relentless
The only priority for Holland is to fix this now
Trade and waive

Btw, Dzingel could have been Oiler if Holland had been awake this summer
It was not the case that talent could not have been obtained

This. This is you’re one frickin suggestion to improve the team. Sign frickin Ryan Dzingel. Holy crap. This is beyond weak.

Material Elvis

verdad2.0:
Munny,

Great, inaction and descent to the bottom much better
This team is ralentless

The team lacks talent because Yakupov and Puljujarvi bust, missed opportunities to draft talent in order to draft role players, lost draft picks for GM/coach compensation, and blown trades (Chiarelli).

Your ridiculous assertion is that Holland should have overhauled the roster in the offseason and turned it into a talented powerhouse; all while dealing with a cap nightmare caused by previous mismanagement. Nobody could have done that, Truth Speaker.

oilersfan

If Khaira gets that puck out before Martinook got his shot off, does this game go to OT

We will never know , but i think so

We got a lot of bounces the first 10-20 games, and barely any the last five

JimmyV1965

drglen:
Bob ripping the refs.

They were managing the game. RNH was tripped on what looked like a grade A chance in the third, but I knew they wouldn’t call it because they had just given the Oil two PPs and a penalty shot. The Kassian penalty was a disgrace.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Munny: Are you okay with Holland being bent over in a trade by a GM that senses this desperation?

Why wouldn’t he be okay with it?
He gets bent over in the comments section daily.
Haha sorry

JimmyV1965

Thought the Oil played well again tonight. Great comeback. The Canes PP was frickin amazing. Geez, they can whip that puck around. I can’t really blame Koskinen for those goals other then the last one.

The big difference was finishers. They have em. We don’t. For all the cycling and ozone pressure, we simply don’t have the guys who can put the puck in the net.

Saw Drai really bad tonight. It’s probably a good idea to stop making blind backhand passes when none of them are hitting. I thought Jones had a good game though. Nice to see.

If they keep playing like this, the wins should come. Should being the key word here. Just hope they don’t get too discouraged and start playing worse.

verdad2.0

Munny,

Great, inaction and descent to the bottom much better
This team is ralentless

Munny

verdad2.0:
Munny,

Holland is the biggest roster issue

I disagree. This isn’t NHL’19… can’t just make a trade happen out of nothing.

Be patient. You have no chance of winning a trade with impatience.

verdad2.0

Munny,

Holland is the biggest roster issue

Sierra

drglen: the defending, goalie, D and forwards, has been very poor all game.

For a week or two now.

Munny

JimmyV1965:
My eyes might have been deceiving me, but I’m pretty sure Nygaard fanned on two AA chances right in front of the net.

Your eyes didn’t deceive you.

Munny

verdad2.0: The only priority for Holland is to fix this now

Are you okay with Holland being bent over in a trade by a GM that senses this desperation?

Like I said during the game, you don’t want your GM making trades during losing streaks.

And as OP alludes to above, you want to give your coach a chance to right the ship first, because the points they’ve already earned has bought them some breathing room.

Agreed, though, that things don’t look good right now. We all know there are roster issues, including Holland.

drglen

stephenw24:
I would agree Adam Larrson might need to be sat out for awhile, between his passing, bad penalties and positioning the press box might be a good idea.Maybe a cnditioning stint in Bakersfield after a serious leg injury.

I didn’t really watch the lone playoff season but what has happened to his game?Has he always had this much difficulty making a first pass or starting a breakout.He doesn’t look like a top pair defence man even of the physical shutdown variety, granted a broken leg is a serious injury and he may still be recovering

It has been mentioned klefbom might be battling a foot injury, hopefully he gets sat out so it can heal or the team practices some load management or rest for this guy.He’d be a good candidate for something like that as he is a very effective player but has battled injuries since he has been a pro

To me he’s looking like a 7D… I’d rather have a look at Lagesson and Matt Benning is a much better defender. And this is basically how he was last year… we give him so much slack for the good playoff and because of the ‘value’ in the Hall trade, … but.. reality.. he’s getting beat behind the net, leading to high danger passes to the slot. It’s not good enough. And Tip agrees.. larsson pretty much sat third period as far as I could tell. Jones took his spot.

drglen

JimmyV1965:
My eyes might have been deceiving me, but I’m pretty sure Nygaard fanned on two AA chances right in front of the net.

ya.,… he gets there.. but he’s off balance and harried.. .. I did see him burst into space for mcdavid passes and we don’t see that too often.. some potential there.. .. draws some calls.. but ya I think he fans because he’s being knocked over.

JimmyV1965

My eyes might have been deceiving me, but I’m pretty sure Nygaard fanned on two AA chances right in front of the net.

verdad2.0

Btw, Khaira was -3
This is not a hockey player worth keeping
Neither is Larsson

But both should have been dealt last summer

drglen

verdad2.0:
drglen,

Absolutely no reason to expect anything from Benson and Yammamoto
Nothing there

Trade and waive
That must be the mantra and the action

But Holland will do nothing

I kind of agree.. I have high hopes for the call ups which is not bourne out in reality or history, but he doesn’t really have any other plays. He can take trade for a mid-range, perhaps upper mid range player, . but the real difference makers are not there and the difference makers cannot be acquired. I’d have a look at Benson though….. .. we’ve got granland, chaisson, Gagner, Archie, P russell, ,. .. I’d have a look…

But we’re still up there… still in first I think?. Holland can probably stand pat for a few more losses.

stephenw24

I would agree Adam Larrson might need to be sat out for awhile, between his passing, bad penalties and positioning the press box might be a good idea. Maybe a cnditioning stint in Bakersfield after a serious leg injury.

I didn’t really watch the lone playoff season but what has happened to his game? Has he always had this much difficulty making a first pass or starting a breakout. He doesn’t look like a top pair defence man even of the physical shutdown variety, granted a broken leg is a serious injury and he may still be recovering

It has been mentioned klefbom might be battling a foot injury, hopefully he gets sat out so it can heal or the team practices some load management or rest for this guy. He’d be a good candidate for something like that as he is a very effective player but has battled injuries since he has been a pro

verdad2.0

OriginalPouzar,

Without fundamental change this slide is one way and relentless
The only priority for Holland is to fix this now
Trade and waive

Btw, Dzingel could have been Oiler if Holland had been awake this summer
It was not the case that talent could not have been obtained

verdad2.0

drglen,

Absolutely no reason to expect anything from Benson and Yammamoto
Nothing there

Trade and waive
That must be the mantra and the action

But Holland will do nothing

OriginalPouzar

When the team got off to the hot start the verbal (from me included and many others) was that it didn’t guarantee the playoffs but what it did was ensure that, when the losing streak and bad stretch comes, and we knew it would, it might take them back to the pack but it wouldn’t crater the season (i.e. take them from the pack to the bottom).

Well, here is that stretch and, guess what, they are still in first place but the pack is catching up.

The team will come out of it as some point in the near future and probably start to string some wings together.

The ups and downs of a non powerhouse playoff team.

drglen

Pescador:
Oilers look like they are destined to be a .500 team by what, game 60?

ya…

drglen

StixMalone:
Verdad has a valid point. Team has Drai and McDavid and it’s being wasted. Good foundation but not a solid build. Lots of work needs to be done. But it will be painful just like every other year till we can do something…..we will have to wait some more….

Handcuffed by salary cap and overpaid term salaries that were not his doing.. and he can’t afford to give away the young prospects for ‘magic beans’ as OP has said a couple times. But I dont’ think he can continue to do nothing anymore. He’s been sitting pretty running some hot goaltending and the low contract vets and europeans he brought in have seemed adequate.. but the team is nosediving and I don’t think he can just do nothing anymore. At the very least.. bring up Benson or even Yam. The thing is, the mantra has been ‘lower goals against’ and the glaring thing the last few games is that the team defending has been bad, substandard. If that’s your reason for hanging on to these vets.. we’ll.. the facts say that it’s not working.

I’m for some call ups here.. .. BENSON.. it’s time.

verdad2.0

Pescador,

Holland could care less
Paid regardless
No accountability

If Babcock can be fired why not Holland?
An idle incompetent

Foege Foegele Torpe

Oilers look like they are destined to be a .500 team by what, game 60?

steelymac17

Credit Tippet,he tiptoed two older mental frail goalies till midway through December.

flyfish1168

The call on Zack was the turning point in the game. Worst part of that was in was a very questionable call. So rare to signal out one player in a scrum. The correct all would have been an even up with 4×4 play. To call it on the home team in this particular situation actually spoils the fans that were at the game experience, knowing the refs was the focal point of this game.

drglen

Darth Tu:
drglen,

The Whale are good, Aho is a stud. I still see Boston as the team to beat in then East though.

ya, can’t argue that.

Darth Tu

drglen,

I didn’t see that either. If he did I retract my comments on the refs decision making regarding that incident.

drglen

Id’ still take Jones over Larrson any day. Matt.. come back. Is Larrson a healthy scratch at this point?

Larrson -1, Klefbom -3. Khaira -3

Rob Brown… Zak poor game managment.. grabbs goalie mask.. that confrontation stopped our momentum.

Zak was a force tonight, but.. he’s right he should have been smarter there.. and not give the refs a chance to make that call. I didn’t see him grab the goalies mask.. if he did that.. then, ya, that’s a penatly.

verdad2.0

Waiting is an excuse
Start by firing Holland
At present, he is the problem

See Pujljarvi failure, Sekera buyout, Smith acquisition, the endless array of talentless forwards
No trades, no talent, no care

StixMalone

Verdad has a valid point. Team has Drai and McDavid and it’s being wasted. Good foundation but not a solid build. Lots of work needs to be done. But it will be painful just like every other year till we can do something…..we will have to wait some more….

BONE207

Pescador:
drglen,

Now its dragging its ass on the lawn
Definitely has anal parasites

The Lucic sized parasites are also scoring goals on the neighborhood poodles. At this rate, there’s going to be a lot weird shit around here come spring.

Darth Tu

drglen,

The Whale are good, Aho is a stud. I still see Boston as the team to beat in then East though.

drglen

No weaknesses in the Carolina line up that I can see… if they get good goaltending… I could see them in the final I really could.. Carolina vs Arizona ? One reason.. not taken seriously.

Darth Tu

drglen,

We did get a 5 on 3 and a penalty shot to be fair. That call on Kassian though. Wow.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Darth Tu:
Pescador,

If it attacks the neighbour’s dog, can we have it destroyed?

As far as I know that’s the only cure for rabies
and parasites

verdad2.0

Darth Tu,

Face the truth

Darth Tu

Pescador,

If it attacks the neighbour’s dog, can we have it destroyed?

Foege Foegele Torpe

drglen,

BONE207: …as well as leaving a giant crap on the front step

Now its dragging its ass on the lawn
Definitely has anal parasites

Oil2Oilers

That was a poor game. The hot start will hopefully sneak them into the playoffs, but the Oilers are not a good hockey team.

drglen

Bob ripping the refs.