Zack Kassian is exactly the kind of player who is better in his 30’s than his 20’s. He had maturity issues, he ran through a couple careers and arrived in YEG as his last chance Texaco. Anyone breathing should wish they took advantage of an opportunity as well as Kassian, who is one of the true feel good stories on this Oilers team. His career high in goals is 15, he has 11 today. Zack Kassian is on his way to 20+ goals. Amazing.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers recall Caleb Jones, one of their most plausible trade chips
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘These games are not coming back’: Oilers lament frustrating week at home
- Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett rewarded for his bets on the resilience of Mikko Koskinen, Oilers
- Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
- Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
- Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 34 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 14-18-2, 30 points; goal differential -17
- Oilers in 2016: 17-12-5, 39 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 15-17-2, 32 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2018: 18-13-3, 39 points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in 2019: 18-11-4, 40 points; goal differential +2
Edmonton remains in a good spot, as it has been since the opening night of the season. I haven’t written about the Donner party, Long Decembers, Nadir’s Raiders and haven’t written melancholy about Bonnie Raitt, Gordon Lightfoot or told stories about the brilliance of Cindy Walker or Jackie DeShannon. It’s been a very good year. So far.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-0-0, 12 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in December 2016: 2-1-3, seven points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in December 2017: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in December 2018: 5-1-0, 10 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in December 2019: 2-2-1, five points; goal differential -5
Last year, after the team won to run their December record to 5-1-0, I wrote “Nothing to criticize this December, the record is outstanding. Hitchcock is pulling out all of the stops (he ran with 10 forwards and 5 defensemen last night, that’s 1971-style) and still won the two points.” Things were going well.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 2-2-1, 5 points in 5 games
I have tonight as a win, although Minnesota has been fire recently and this will be a difficult game for Edmonton. The next several games are tough, Edmonton looks out of time and out of touch. They have looked this way before and found a way to tighten up. Tonight will be a big test.
OILERS 2019-20
Oscar Klefbom is bleeding five on five since getting hurt and I’m not certain Dave Tippett has the option of resting him. One thing to watch for tonight is usage, and I do think we might be reaching the point where Edmonton dresses seven defensemen in a game.
CONDORS 2019-20
Kailer Yamamoto had a strong game last night, going 1-1-2 and looking dangerous all night long. Wilde’s and OP’s updates in the comments section of last night’s post are most worthwhile.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, it’s a rocking show. At 10:20, Simon Boisvert, our prospect insider, tells us who is NHL-ready among the Bakersfield Condors. We’ll also talk 2020 draft. Frank Seravalli from TSN will pop in after 11 with the latest news, heaving on coaching changes and maybe a couple of trade rumors as well. Sarah McLellan from Star Trib in Minneapolis will preview the Wild at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I think they still got points in every game.
Dom has our projected point total at 87.7.
Iirc, I had 86.
Playoff probability 33%.
Does a Chris Tierney move the needle for 3c?
Rumored to available and cheap, but his cap is nearly $3m.
Smith has been in free fall mode.
🙂
Did he clarify if that meant vs the Leafs tomorrow?
On Monday, Woody said that there was a chance Starrett could play this week – he didn’t play on Wed (and the tenders were the main reason for the big loss) – here is hoping we see him in net on the weekend.
Florida’s Chris Driedger currently leads the AHL in Sv% (.938) and is 2nd behind Shesterkin with 2.09 GAA. He’s 25, posted decent numbers last year (18-10-2-1, 2.45 GAA, .924 Sv%) and is certainly behind Spencer Knight on their future depth chart. Trouble is, he’s earned himself a call-up and has performed admirably for a team desperate for quality goaltending: in 2 starts he has allowed just 3 goals for a 1.53 GAA and .942 Sv%. He now occupies the backup position in Florida as Bob is suddenly hot, going 1.52 GAA and .958 through 4 games in December.
It’s worth noting that Starrett’s numbers last year weren’t much different, having posted 2.33 GAA and .918 Sv%. His 2.03 GAA and .923 Sv% this year are too small a sample to prove anything, but if he could only get healthy I think the answer might well be in our own backyard.
The Oilers results in the last 10 games are at least as much about goaltending as D pairs.
You’re the only one who even claims to have open/closed shot data… Yet every number you post is from Natural Stat Trick.
Hugs are good though.
His numbers in his recent short stint were also excellent (in contrast to Oct/Nov). His rabbit paw quality may have worn off though – the Oilers were a bit of a mess during that last recall.
rickithebear,
I miss Benning too. He’s a valuable contributor to a strong third pairing.
By your metrics, how do Russell and Benning’s WOWYs stack up against elite competition?
Oilers record is shit when Benning isn’t in the lineup. I agree that Jones doesn’t work well on the right side. Plus, Larsson seems to change the complexity of the 2nd Dpair, and seemingly not in a good way. They need to go back to the lineup that was winning games in October/November. And as for the goaltending, This is getting ridiculous. Cursed. Oilers seem cursed right now to fold back into mediocrity. Just as the fLames go on there annual winning streak. Terrible timing. We will be out of a playoff spot come Saturday just you see.
(31 x 6 or =186) (85 min) (189 Pr)
#1PR Russell – Benning 0.37 evga;60
#19 Pr Russell – Klefbom 1.19 evga/60
—————————————————-
3rd worst #187 Klefbom – Larsson 5.59 evga/60
7th worst #183 Klefbom – Jones 4.63 evga/60
24 th worst #166 Nurse – bear 3.64 evga/60
64th worst #122 Klefbom – Person 2.94 evga/60
The sooner we get back Benning the better.
The sooner Klefbom is off this team the better.
He is making the same stupid plays that dragged down.
#2 open HD def dman Fayne s evga/60.
Yes the dman who called out Eakins abandon of HD area and 2-3 player press of Ozone fucking stupid.
But hey you guys are getting the offence you want from Dmen.
And
I am no longer getting strong HD area def from Dpairs.
How is that going the last 10 games?
Strong HD def pairs deep teams win championships.
The history is there.
No matter how much non open/ closed shot analytic ( poor analytic) group affirmation/confirmation goes on.
3-1-1-1 is great!
Group hug everyone!
Let’s all validate our feelings!
Worst. Ever
A polite version, lol.
Gary Dornhoefer…I thought he was so bad, we nicknamed him Doorknobber. Remenda wasn’t all that bad tonight. Of course I turned off the volume.
Busy tonight, just finished watching. Ouch. I’m probably exaggerating, but it felt like Minnesota had 6 goals on 5 total scoring chances.
And I’m sorry, but Remenda is making me nostalgic for Dornhoefer’s final season as colour commentator, when he was completely mailing it in. Good lord I’d rather have that than Remenda.
And the good luck charm in Joel Persson.
Also, Jones is no good on his off side. Send him down. Never thought I’d say this: This team really misses Matt Benning.
I believe they are giving everyone enough rope.
The org behaves like a normal team so far this season. Those without public speaking filters aren’t speaking publicly anymore.
So, it’s show time.
Holland said ‘we’ll see what happens’ regarding the team in the standings and basically buy or sell mode.
I’m quite sure that Holland and Tippett know what they are looking at. They aren’t behind the times as we have been subjected to.
So it will be interesting to see what happens and when. Clearly the slow boats need to go, and others that can’t win their role on a given night.
For sure once the season is done (or before) I hope every reasonable effort is made to remove older placeholders, and no obvious bad contracts are signed.
Ditch salary, and try someone else. Stability doesn’t mean much to your best players when that stability is icing too many replacement level players and not remaining competitve, as I see it.
Haas missed his guy on that 5th goal, but that shot was off a slow pass from the high slot. A 27 year old goalie gets across his crease to cover that shot. Haas was helping to recover the puck assuming a shot that high would be saved.
Would a 2020 4th + a 2021 2nd round pick + Kris Russel net Anders Nilsson. 2.6M this year and next?
Or Craig Anderson?
Robin Lehner is having a hell of a year for nearly out of it Chicago….
We need a goalie. Think of something!
Is there a third string goalie out there who just just hasn’t been given the opportunity because of who is ahead of him? Anyone need a Manning because of a rash of d-man injuries? Man do the Oilers sure affect my mood. When they are winning life is so much better. I sure hope I’m not at my family’s throats on Sunday…
I don’t think you need to frame it as Tippett is playing him because they’re buddies. They clearly have a history, based on how Smith responded in these situations in the past. That was years ago though and Smith has to perform a little bit to maintain whatever trust there was.
OP made a good point about not pulling Smith tonight to make sure Koskinen is rested, so that likely explains this evening.
I really feel like this game could be a turning point for Smith though. He was poor and was an important part of the team being down 4-2. They managed to battle back and then he promptly let in another goal that could have been stopped. The way he lost was almost worse than just being crappy from the start and the team being behind for the whole game.
We’ll see but I don’t think Smith has an indefinite leash with Tippett (or Holland). IMO moves will be made if he can’t stop a puck.
Guyabitos
Is it true that we had the same record last year at this same date?
Flames win again.
Yup, he’s looked expendable thus far. We know he can be more. Hopefully he gets comfortable soon, maybe even makes his game a little more current.
That 5th Wild goal was interesting.
I encourage everyone to watch the replay.
Nygard-Nuge-Chiasson
Larsson-Klef
Failure to advance the puck past our side of the neutral zone by Nuge. Then Larsson breaks up a play along the right boards, there is another Oiler there (I think Nuge), but somehow the puck doesn’t get cleared. From there it goes to the left corner. A 2v2 puck battle is lost by Klef and Nygard.
This is when chaos unfolds.
Chiasson is covering the RHD (to Smith’s left), but he rotates to the other side of the ice to thwart what would have been a one-timer by Zucker. This would have been okay, but Nygard was late on rotating to Staal, who unfurled a wicked one-timer. Amazing play by Zucker to not force what would have been a shot block by Chiasson.
Here’s the funny thing.
I watched this play a few times. How long do you think Staal was open?
3 seconds!
It’s a hard game. Rare goal where (I think) everyone on the ice is to blame.
Holland hiring Smith was based upon ‘old timey decision making / gut instinct’ not math nor analytics nor sound thinking.
As for what Chiarelli did.. it was a crime against hockey.
We’re left with the tandem produced by both.
jtblack,
x2
Always love the in person accounts.
When we tied it up, I said to myself we can’t let them get a shot on net. Smith won’t make the save. Next two shots find the twine. I can’t imagine the pressure the players feel.
As for Smith, as bad as he’s been teams do need a backup goalie. Starett has been perpetually injured, unfortunately.
Wells and Skinner are worse than Smith, so unless a Domingue is on waivers again or we trade for a backup,
Until then, it’s Smith, but we should play him less and pull him when he’s not playing well.
Omg. That reminded me of a lexicon item… hind banana…
We were discussing Larsson appearing to take more offensive risks lately, and whether a concerted effort to change the way he plays could be part of him struggling.
No one’s suggested he could score 40 points or anything. At times he’s shown flashes of ability we don’t usually see. Sometimes with the Oilers, but in particular when he’s played for Team Sweden.
I (and I think some others) feel that he plays a conservative, risk averse game. If he re-calibrates his risk-meter I think he has the skill to do something with those extra puck moving opportunities.
If nothing else I think he can be an effective player in Tippett’s system rather than what we’ve seen from him since his return.
jp,
Reminds me of when Yawney took over the D-corps as the latest D-Whisperer. Initially, we saw material improvements in KRusty’s game which then reverted back to the same ol’, same ol’. (To be fair to Kris, his puck movement has been better this year than previous years.)
Hopefully Adam is still young enough to learn some new tricks, and before his contract year. Whether he’s a long term part of the core or not. He’s valuable here, but if he’s destined elsewhere we need value in any return.
Maybe he knows something about Koski not able to go. At the risk of sounding ageist, this goalie tandem is a risk from the start. I hope we can jettison them cleanly when the hulk of these 2 goalies rusts out.
Calgary up by 2 now….
Yeah, it was a mistake.
The first mistake was Holland signing Smith.
I’m a Tippet fan, but other than trying to get Smith to hit his games played bonuses what on earth is he doing playing him so much?
Ok then…so much for miracles.
That was prescient.
I have watched every Tippet post game and admire his honesty.He better call a spade a spade on this one and accept he fucked up mot pulling Smith.The team fights back multiple times.Thats what destroys chemistry.
Oilers PK was great tonight.
Well. We won’t win many games with that kinda goaltending. Koskinen allowed six the other night and played well. Not so much with Smith tonight.
How many games have we won when our goalie isn’t one of the 3 stars?
The price just went up.
Now we have to trade for Pageau and Nilsson in a package with Gagner and Manning going the other way to make the cap work.
Not many games where you score 5 and still lose in reg.
Arizona takes over first tonight barring an epic collapse of oilers proportions. Veg. Lost and flames losing 2-1 right now. Best we can hope for is the rest of the pacific teams lose
Do both
Smith tonight
No rational argument Against it
Awful performance by smith
Goalies have cost us a few of these losses lately
Some good urgency in some of those shifts in the 3rd. Too bad they don’t play like that until they are down a pair.
Skid row…..
Astute observation my man.
Yep… absolutely no confidence in this team to make the playoffs anymore.
They should watch the fLames videos.