Along with all of the excitement of trade deadline arriving with the Oilers as a possible buyer, there’s also the downside of saying goodbye to some who have been here for the past few years. Based on Ken Holland’s cap comments yesterday, there’s a chance a current roster player will be leaving the organization between now and Monday at 1pm. The team needs cap room in order to wheel. Sail on, but whom?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
- New Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
- Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
- Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
OILERS AFTER 61 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 22-33-6, 50 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2016: 33-20-8, 74 points; goal differential +13
- Oilers in 2017: 26-31-4, 56 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2018: 26-29-6, 58 points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in 2019-20: 32-21-7, 71 points; goal differential +4
Edmonton has been winning consistently over the last two months, as well as gathering Bettmans while ye may. The results are real and spectacular.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 0-0-0
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 2-8-0, four points; goal differential -19
- Oilers in February 2017: 5-5-0, 10 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in February 2018: 2-7-1, five points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in February 2019: 2-5-3, seven points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in February 2020: 5-3-1, 11 points; goal differential +2
The last two months have been very strong for this Oilers team, with better structure and consistency. How far is the balance photo? I expect we’ll see it in the fall.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 5-3-1, 11 points in nine games
A win tonight puts the Oilers in great position to hit the deadline either on top of the Pacific Division or close at the trade deadline. Clearance is important but the club is definitely in the range where we can call them buyers at this time.
OILERS 2019-20
Connor McDavid’s comments aside, the Oilers formula will be in force tonight, meaning another close checking effort and a grinding game. I enjoy these very much, makes me melancholy for the MacT days. I could barbecue during those games and be confident the score wouldn’t change more than a goal either way while I was outside.
TRADE DEADLINE
Man did things change in a hurry. On December 1, I wrote an article for The Athletic called “Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall” with an eye to a package that involved picks, prospects and Jesse Puljujarvi.
Since then, several of the names suggested (Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, William Lagesson) have been called up to the NHL and shown well. I’m not certain any of them are in play at this time.
What does that leave? Considering Evan Bouchard was never in play and Philip Broberg is off limits, not much. I think the Oilers like these youngsters enough to keep them. The one area of redundancy is LH defense, perhaps we see an exit there.
Jon is covering the Condors tonight and this weekend, then hanging around for the Oilers road trip and trade deadline. Stay tuned for his coverage. Daniel Nugent-Bowman will be heading up things from Edmonton at the deadline, lots of stories to follow. We discussed those stories and more on the latest Oil Can Podcast which is available now (here).
I’ll contribute as well when deals come down, and will be on the TSN1260 deadline show which starts at 6am and goes through until everyone has spoken (usually 3pm, sometimes later). I’ll be part of the TSN1260 panel (hosted by Dave Jamieson) along with Dustin Nielson, Tom Gazzola, Jason Gregor and others). Can’t wait! Fun day.
We’re seeing some clearance now, Arizona has played more games than anyone and is in trail position. Edmonton owns just a three-point lead on the Coyotes but have four games in hand. That’s a problem for Chayka. Would he trade Taylor Hall on Monday? Seems crazy to speak out loud.
Big games tonight (Oilers versus Wild and Flames versus Boston) are major stories in the division. Massive evening.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy Friday as we kickstart the weekend beginning at 10, TSN1260. We’ll talk to Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports about the Oilers run, the trade deadline and Dave Tippett’s Edmonton impact. Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 comes back from holidays to argue with me at 11, we’ll chat Oilers, CFL free agency and MLB spring training. I’m also working on another trade deadline guest, it’s a good conversation and hopefully we land him. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
The Tavares, and perhaps Muzzin, contracts are red flags to me. Dubas will be paying guys into their mid thirties who are average skaters. Tavares is still a good player, but how good will he be in year 5, 6 and 7?
That signing always appeared gratuitous to me. Dubas already had his stud forwards. I think he miscalculated how much that contract would affect his RFA contracts.
Someone suggested here that Chia set the bar, and inflated the market, for future RFA contracts with the Draisaitl contract at 8.5 million. If that’s true, why did Dubas pay 11 million for Matthews and Marner? With a lot less term?
Ah. Was scrolling the thread and it came across that Dubas was your axe to grind. Best GM in the league is a bit much, but I think he’s good.
Tavares has been one of the best in the NHL vs Elites since he signed that contract .
Last year he had 47.1% TOI vs Elites, 52.3% DFF and 73.5% (!) GF
That’s just nutty and dominating those minutes is critical.
His results vs Elite has been worse this year, but his two most common Dmen are Holl and Barrie, not who you want vs Elites. His wingers have been in constant rotation too.
No problem with the Tavares contract. Adding a legit high end #1 for nothing but money is good business.
Gave Marner too much. If you’re going to give him that much at least get 8 years like Pete did with Drai and not 6.
As for plan, his off season work this past summer seems to be mostly centered around getting rid of Lou’s shitty contracts.
Paying a 1st to be rid of Marleau.
Taking on Ceci and his expiring contract to be done with Zaitsev’s bizarre contract.
I didn’t like his Kadri move, best value contract he had, but can see why he thought he had to move him.
Taking Barrie for a test drive with an expiring contract was good along with ostensibly getting his 3C replacement in Kerfoot (which has mixed results)
Adding Muzzin was a very good move and it sounds like he’ll resign so he’ll have his 1 & 2 LHD in Rielly and Muzzin for a while.
They need better D and his moves this summer looked built to be able to do that this summer.
He’s got good young D in Sandin, Dermott, Liljegren and Holl, but needs help at 1RD in a big way so I expect him to figure that out this summer.
He seems to have a reasonable plan.
It might involve trading one of his wingers for a Dman but Nylander at 6.9 for 4 more years isn’t the one I’d move.
Like I said when Peter overpaid Drai, if you’re going to overpay, its best to do it at the top of the roster.
I don’t see any overpays to non-core players and they have a good conveyor belt of ELCs and RFAs aged players to supplement the high prices ones.
He needs better goaltending and his coaches to deploy Andersson less, he has the 3rd most TOI of any goalie in the league from the beginning of last season until his injury. We’ll see if Campbell can do that for him.
His only reactive move that I can see was for his backup and that was a mess of his own doing.
My lovely wife had the temerity to arrange a dinner party on game night. The horror! So i’ll be watching last night’s game today on PVR already knowing the result.
Anyone else do this? It’s a weird phenomenon. I find my assessment of their play is way more objective when I’m not emotionally invested in the result. You can watch the game like a coach or scout would.
I don’t have a particular ‘focus’ on Dubas. Another poster had anointed him as the best GM in the league and I felt that warranted another perspective as he does have some warts, particularly on the contract negotiation and cap management side.
Two questions. Do you like the Tavares add in light of how it impacted their subsequent contracts and cap?
Do you see a long range plan playing out in TO? Or does it seem a bit short range and reactive?
Funny thing is that the fancystats has EDM as a “low quantity-high quality” shooting team.
Its slipped a bit since McHeyHey went down as most of his shots and chances that he creates are high quality.
I think there is less of a pass because most of the goals against were due to poor play.
I think everyone was pretty pissed about the reffing (or lack-thereof) and that anger needs to get channeled somewhere.
I saw Larsson, Lagesson and Khaira pretty bad yesterday.
It great that you take it for what it is. That’s the key.
He pissed me off for years until I smartened up about what he does and now I think its quite funny if it doesn’t delve into personal shots.
Its also not coincidence that 9-11 are “drinking hours”
and I’m fine with corresponding with him generally and its fun most of the time – its enjoyable watching him make straw man arguments, move the goalposts, cherrypick information, etc.
Most of these “conversations” are later in the evening, between 9-11, when the comments are generally pretty slow on here.
It’s kinda funny.
Last game against the Bruins, the attitude after the game was to give the team a pass for the loss because they were shorthanded.
This loss against the Wild; not so much.. Was it because the team wasn’t as sharp or tenacious as the previous game? It’s not like we got any healthier between the two games. Also, posters were talking as if the Minny team should have been a gimme. They were 7-3-0 in their past 10 and fighting for their playoff lives. I felt Minnesota was the better team last night and we got the deserved result.
***
I thought Koskinen played great early on but had a few bad bounces later in the game.
The first goal, Fiala recovered the rebound with speed and Lagesson made a mistake trying to go for the puck instead of just taking the body. The second, Soucy scored past a screen provided by Archibald. The third, Spurgeon had all kinds of time to wind up for a full slapshot from the faceoff dot. The fourth was deflected in by Larsson but otherwise, Koski was in position to make the save.
Man, this is dumb. Goals go in 5 hole all the time. On purpose.
Also the team got outshot and outchanced and your solution is they need to become better shooters?
That’s like saying the problem is effort and they should try harder, as if trying harder was a strategy.
digger50,
Nuge is not a finisher
I too blame the player with 2 of the 3 goals for not finishing.
Since Jan 1st he’s only 14th in the NHL is 5v5 goals scored!
He better work on his game!!
18-19 playoffs
5v5 goal share
Nylander (4-1) 80%
Eberle (6-2) 75%
Blaming the best players on a team for the team’s failure is the Lennart Petrell of sports opinions.
Oilers have never had an “analytics department”
Your focus on Dubas is weird.
He runs a team that finished with over 100+ points in the last two seasons and lost his 1D since Jan 12th and 1G for extended periods of time this season while being on pace for 95 points.
I don’t get it.
The worst thing he did was his 2G this year as far I can see.
Agreed that he got owned by Marner’s agent. Very similar to Pete and Drai’s agent except Dubas didn’t get the term he should have out of that contract.
Don’t try to inject facts into Andy’s narratives, they don’t fit.
Still shocked that you can’t tell the difference between “had ARI winning the Pacific” with “10-1 is a great price for this bet”
Wait a minute…..
I’m not shocked at all.
Yes, when I bitched on LT’s blog about Kesler winning the Selke in 2011 when Sedin and Maholtra has tougher QoC (according to Gabe’s site, which was basically it back then) I had no idea about QoC and needed Papa Leadfarmer to teach me.
Yes, GMoney and I had no idea about QoC which is why we discussed it for years and spent so much time and money developing a model for it.
What color is the sky in your world?
Did you mail yourself those posts and bury them under your porch so you can prove they were your ideas?
OriginalPouzar,
I am wondering why you choose to post in an Oilers forum when you aren’t a fan of the Oilers?
He posts here because he’ll get the response he’s looking for from some of the posters here, including you.
The guy took a personal shot at him and he responded. HH should just leave.
I must have missed the shot. (serious by the way, still catching up on the thread)
But seriously, DSF barely chums the water here and the fish just start jumping into his boat.
“Between stimulus and response, there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. ” Viktor Frankl
Nice Seinfeld reference…
One of my favourite posts of the game.
Delooper, you’ve been MIA for a good long while. Great to see you’re alive n kickin,
I’m with you on this one, bro.
Per the Edmonton Yournal.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet said he thought the Oilers had taken a look at Tyler Ennis of Ottawa, who is an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer.
Ennis? Did somebody say “ENNIS”?
Bob Stauffer said of Ennis: “Ennis is in the price range that makes sense for the Oilers. Think of guys around in and around $1.0 millon or less (per year).”
Jesus, there he is again.
Go find yer own damn trade targets, media bigwigs.
Dis one’s miiiiiiine.
#bluelightspecial
#cleanupinaislethree
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; February 21st, 2020; game totals
38CF-52CA
22FF-30FA
1GF-3GA
Top F: Koules (0.46 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 2 shot assists
11CF-9CA
7FF-4FA
1GF-0GA
Top D: Manning (0.61 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
1 assist, 1 pen taken
14CF-14CA
7FF-10FA
1GF-2GA
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; February 21st, 2020; deployment
Gambardella – Granlund – Currie
Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
Vesey – Esposito – Hebig
Koules – Starrett – Peluso
–
Manning – Samorukov
Kulevich – Persson
Lowe – Day
…
after 20
17CF-25CA
14FF-14FA
0GF-2GA
Top F: Granlund (0.46 Gane Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
1 penalty drawn
10CF-7CA
8FF-5FA
0GF-0GA
Top D: Lowe (0.26 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 1 shot assist
6CF-4CA
6FF-3FA
0GF-0GA
…
after 40
29CF-37CA
18FF-20FA
1GF-2GA
Top F: Granlund (0.81 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 4 shot assists
1 penalty drawn
17CF-10CA
10FF-7FA
0GF-0GA
Top D: Manning (0.51 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assist
1 assist
9CF-13CA
5FF-9FA
1GF-2GA
HH would really do the blog a favour by staying away.
When Connor got shutdown this morning I think the team had a bit of a let down. I’ll bet dollars for doughnuts he’s playing in LA and gets this team back on track.
Good game and effort overall, considering the lineup. Could have gone either way.
Harpers Hair,
I almost never comment but I had to log in to let you know how childish I find you. Seriously, this need to “own” someone iis really not befitting someone your age. Seriously, just fuck off.
I would say he was never a fan, back in the eighties in Edmonton there was 1 or 2 out of ten that cheered against the Oilers for no other reason than for the attention and to get a rise out of folks. Today they’re called Trolls
He’s too busy trying to find a Brogan Rafferty Jersey
Must have been a mad rush for them
Those things are impossible to find
Dont go to bed! Stay up and whine about the game like me. !
Jones made many great passes, under stress at times.
Haas… I just don’t know anymore. hes a good disruptive forechecker and heads north with a lot of steam and promise, but it just never amounts to anything. I would not renew at this point.
Khaira.. . time to cut anchor.
Larsson was a step behind tonight and not as committed in the corner battles.
Koskinen was good. Cult of hockey grades too low. He stopped many point blank shots in traffic that didn’t really register. Several big time saves. No run support and I’m going to point to our forward group in particular for soft and slow coverage leading to goals against. Forecheck was also basically absent and Wild had rush after rush of clean and convincing breakouts.
fialas goal where he beat lagesson was high level hands and skill, got to give him that one.
Can’t trade Larsson without a reasonable RD coming back in the deal. So…
Larsson plus ?? to Florida for Vatrano plus Weegar. ?
Larsson plus Chiasson plus 2020 1st to Florida for Trochek plus Weegar ?
Seriously, you are calling me out because I incorrectly predicted the outcome of a hockey game.
Did you forget about your incorrect predictions over the last few months about, well, everything?
I am wondering why you choose to post in an Oilers forum when you aren’t a fan of the Oilers?
And this.
I am wondering why you haven’t let go of the team that broke your heart 30 years ago.
This.
Can we at least take solace that tonight’s loss will finally signify a means to an end of Jujhar Khaira as an Oiler? Can we now officially end the $1.2M salary dump audition? We have to sit him out on Sunday b/c of the trade deadline no?
Tough loss tonight. But the better team won.
Shremp watch:
6 GP 1 Pt.
Needs to go back down once they get some bodies back
Tough crowd tonight:
Larson a burlap sack
Drai can’t skate, too much at icebtime
Nurse can’t pass again
Nuge is not a finisher
Gagner a bad veteran
Yamo was not too little again but he’ll be under fire if he doesn’t grow 6 inches by next game.
It’s still not a great roster. How do we critize the top end while giving a pass to Cave, Russel or Haas?
Team did a lot with a little so far. Tough crowd.
How did that work out for you?
I am wondering why you no longer provide the play by play of the Condor’s games.
The 3 stars tonight laid end to end maybe adds up to 17 feet
Maybe
Today belongs to the edmonton Kid Jared Spurgeon.
Our bottom 9 looked bottom 6 ish today. All day.
Give Bouchard a game. Sit Lagesson for a couple.
Connor….. you’re playing.
Russell.
bah… i’m disappointed. This was a winnable game.
Some good and bad breaks, but ultimately not enough intensity, checking wise.
Would ya rather, Lennart Petrell or Patrick Russell?
Tough call. Pretty much the same player.
Enough of the bullshit Connor better be playing next game.
One more – Gagner. Vet doesn’t help rookie, game over.
At least the Flames lost
Bed pooped. Nite all.
That’s just shitty luck…broken stick for Nuge and then the puck works it way to Bear at the point just as Spurgeon exits the box and Bear didn’t see him
That’s too bad
Some nice things tonight but lots of room for improvement
Anticipate away
Gagner didn’t Gagner.
Fuckkkkkkkkk!