2019-20 Game 61: Wild at Oilers

Along with all of the excitement of trade deadline arriving with the Oilers as a possible buyer, there’s also the downside of saying goodbye to some who have been here for the past few years. Based on Ken Holland’s cap comments yesterday, there’s a chance a current roster player will be leaving the organization between now and Monday at 1pm. The team needs cap room in order to wheel. Sail on, but whom?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
  • New Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
  • Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20

OILERS AFTER 61 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 22-33-6, 50 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2016: 33-20-8, 74 points; goal differential +13
  • Oilers in 2017: 26-31-4, 56 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2018: 26-29-6, 58 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 32-21-7, 71 points; goal differential +4

Edmonton has been winning consistently over the last two months, as well as gathering Bettmans while ye may. The results are real and spectacular.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Current 10 games: 0-0-0

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-8-0, four points; goal differential -19
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-5-0, 10 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in February 2018: 2-7-1, five points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in February 2019: 2-5-3, seven points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in February 2020: 5-3-1, 11 points; goal differential +2

The last two months have been very strong for this Oilers team, with better structure and consistency. How far is the balance photo? I expect we’ll see it in the fall.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-3-1, 11 points in nine games

A win tonight puts the Oilers in great position to hit the deadline either on top of the Pacific Division or close at the trade deadline. Clearance is important but the club is definitely in the range where we can call them buyers at this time.

OILERS 2019-20

Connor McDavid’s comments aside, the Oilers formula will be in force tonight, meaning another close checking effort and a grinding game. I enjoy these very much, makes me melancholy for the MacT days. I could barbecue during those games and be confident the score wouldn’t change more than a goal either way while I was outside.

TRADE DEADLINE

Man did things change in a hurry. On December 1, I wrote an article for The Athletic called “Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall” with an eye to a package that involved picks, prospects and Jesse Puljujarvi.

Since then, several of the names suggested (Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, William Lagesson) have been called up to the NHL and shown well. I’m not certain any of them are in play at this time.

What does that leave? Considering Evan Bouchard was never in play and Philip Broberg is off limits, not much. I think the Oilers like these youngsters enough to keep them. The one area of redundancy is LH defense, perhaps we see an exit there.

Jon is covering the Condors tonight and this weekend, then hanging around for the Oilers road trip and trade deadline. Stay tuned for his coverage. Daniel Nugent-Bowman will be heading up things from Edmonton at the deadline, lots of stories to follow. We discussed those stories and more on the latest Oil Can Podcast which is available now (here).

I’ll contribute as well when deals come down, and will be on the TSN1260 deadline show which starts at 6am and goes through until everyone has spoken (usually 3pm, sometimes later). I’ll be part of the TSN1260 panel (hosted by Dave Jamieson) along with Dustin Nielson, Tom Gazzola, Jason Gregor and others). Can’t wait! Fun day.

We’re seeing some clearance now, Arizona has played more games than anyone and is in trail position. Edmonton owns just a three-point lead on the Coyotes but have four games in hand. That’s a problem for Chayka. Would he trade Taylor Hall on Monday? Seems crazy to speak out loud.

Big games tonight (Oilers versus Wild and Flames versus Boston) are major stories in the division. Massive evening.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday as we kickstart the weekend beginning at 10, TSN1260. We’ll talk to Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports about the Oilers run, the trade deadline and Dave Tippett’s Edmonton impact. Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 comes back from holidays to argue with me at 11, we’ll chat Oilers, CFL free agency and MLB spring training. I’m also working on another trade deadline guest, it’s a good conversation and hopefully we land him. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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570 Responses to "2019-20 Game 61: Wild at Oilers"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL    17
    COL    16
    DAL    16

    Horrific
    EDM    11
    VAN    10
    VGP    10

    Wildcard
    CGY    7
    WPG    7

    Out of playoffs
    NSH    6
    MIN    4
    ARI    4
    CHI    0
    SJS    -4
    ANA    -5
    LAK    -12

    -All ties broken by games played

    -Playoff cut line creeps up closer to EDM’s total.  Not out of the wood yet.

    -Relevant games today:

    MIN (-105) at EDM (-115) – EDM opened as a bigger fav but line moved towards MIN.  Not sure what to think.  EDM playing well but MIN is too going 6-3-1 in their last 10.

    NSH (-120) at CHI (+100) – Suprised NSH isn’t a bigger fav.  CHI sliding with 2-6-2 in last 10 and NSH is 6-4-0.  Value on NSH

    BOS (-130) at CGY (+110) – This is probably close too.  CGY plays better when they have to.  Still like BOS a bit at this price.

  2. Andy Dufresne says:

    “I could barbecue during those games and be confident the score wouldn’t change more than a goal either way while I was outside.”

    Right!?!

    You could watch a game and be somewhat relaxed.

    Then came the decade of darkness and you watched and felt nothing but disappointment.

    Then last year was like Post Tramatic Stress Disorder

    And now…finally, we can kind of relax a little while watching.

    Tippet is indeed the best coach sine MacT. And perhaps even better.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over fake Bettman .500

    Atlantic
    BOS    27
    TBY    24
    TOR    10

    Metroplitan
    PIT    21
    WSH    20
    PHI    14

    Wildcard
    CAR    13
    NYI    13

    Out of playoffs
    CBJ    11
    FLA    9
    NYR    7
    BUF    2
    MTL    1
    NJD    -4
    OTT    -8
    DET    -28

    -“My name is Coach Q.  I have a seriously underperforming goalie who finally had a good game Wednesday night and a back up who has a .932 SV%.  What will I do?  I’ll start my struggling starter Thursday too and get beat by a shitty team due to soft goals.”  Asshole.

    -Thanks to PIT for just throwing their sticks on the ice last night too.  Good job.  Good effort.  Assholes.

    -CAR and NYI have same pts %.  CAR has 2 more regulation wins.

    Relevant wild card games today:

    NYR (+140) at CAR (-160) – Line a hair heavy on CAR with how good NYR (7-3-0) has been playing.  A hair.  NYR is 3-0 against CAR this season, but have been outplayed in every game.  Goaltending.  Who knew?

    DET (+260)  at NYI (-320) – Tempted to put a unit on DET just because.

  4. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Sail on but WHO?”………..are we just supposed to ignore the picture!?!

    • godot10 says:

      PK was seven for seven against Boston.

      I don’t think Holland and Tippett feel the same way like Lowetide does about the player.

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    As far as acquiring a top-6 LW, is Galchenyuk worth looking at? Assuming he doesn’t cost much, of course.

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – ” makes me melancholy for the MacT days…”

    * looks up MacT coaching record:

    Missed playoffs
    Lost in 1st round (Dallas)
    Missed playoffs
    Lost in Stanley Cup final (Carolina)
    Missed playoffs
    Missed playoffs
    Missed playoffs

    * looks up Melancholy: “a feeling of pensive sadness, typically with no obvious cause”

    * Ah, Kinger sees: “with no obvious cause”

    – I too was sad about MacT’s coaching…

  7. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “Sail on but WHO?”………..are we just supposed to ignore the picture!?!

    Subliminal messaging is my forte.

  8. Litke 94 says:

    “How far is the balance photo? I expect we’ll see it in the fall.”

    *insert wide-open eyes emoji*

  9. Bulging Twine says:

    Top Save % from Western Conference teams still in the playoff hunt since January 1:

    name gp sv%

    Raanta 13 .927
    Grubauer 13 .925
    Stalock 10 .924
    Bishop 13 .923
    Saros 11 .922
    Khudobin 8 .921
    Smith 13 .920
    Talbot 10 .920
    Markstrom 15 .915
    Francouz 7 .914
    Hill 12 .913
    Hellebuyck 17 .913
    Koskinen 6 .909
    Rinne 11 .907
    Brossoit 7 .901
    Demko 6 .900
    Allen 7 .898
    Rittich 11 .892
    Fleury 16 .891
    Binnington 15 .891
    Dubnyk 8 .883
    Subban 4 .831

  10. fries n gravy says:

    If John Chayka has full autonomy he trades Hall by Monday. If not, we know that Arizona’s owners are meddling.

  11. ArmchairGM says:

    The last two months have been very strong for this Oilers team, with better structure and consistency. How far is the balance photo? I expect we’ll see it in the fall.

    *tents fingers*

    EXcellent!

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    “We’re seeing some clearance now, ”

    Time to start cheering for all of the teams above us in the standing to beat all the teams below us in the standings.

    LETS GO STARS!, AVS!, BLUES!, FLYING HOLUPKI’s!

    #SeperationAnxiety

    #TheEnemyOfMyEnemyIsMyFriend

  13. Lowetide says:

    Daniel Nugent-Bowman will join us at 10:40.

  14. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: -Playoff cut line creeps up closer to EDM’s total.  Not out of the wood yet.

    Picture is coming into focus. I’d guess Vegreville and Nashville will get in and Yotes and Wild are out leaving 4 Western Canadian teams fighting for 3 playoff spots. #cancon #turtlegolf

  15. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – ” makes me melancholy for the MacT days…”

    * looks up MacT coaching record:

    Missed playoffs
    Lost in 1st round (Dallas)
    Missed playoffs
    Lost in Stanley Cup final (Carolina)
    Missed playoffs
    Missed playoffs
    Missed playoffs

    * looks up Melancholy: “a feeling of pensive sadness, typically with no obvious cause”

    * Ah, Kinger sees: “with no obvious cause”

    – I too was sad aboutMacT’s coaching…

    The best part was when they’d fuck up something like Petry situation and then it was beyond all doubt that the franchise was drifting down the Amazon River like an imaginary sequel to Klaus Kinski’s classic movie: Aguirre, the Wrath of God.

    This season they’d trade Nurse right after signing him “To teach him a lesson”. And there was always a sizeable contingent of Lowetide posters who would defend everything Lowe+MacT did lol

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gambardella – Granlund – Currie
    Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
    Vesey – Esposito – Hebig
    Koules – Starrett – Peluso

    Who knew there were two ways to kill an AHL roster.

    Drafting like shit….and drafting well. 🙂

  17. hunter1909 says:

    Watched the Pittsburgh/Leafs game last night and the Leafs look weak weak weak and I guess the Pens just took the foot off of the gas or something.

    Toronto players are true lightweights – no doubt something to do with Dallas Eakin’s former bosses “vision” lol

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Nothing like reading LT’s blog on Friday morning, on a game day, while the oilers are humming.

    Can we get someone to hack LT’s computer and retrieve the file ‘balancephoto.jpeg’?

    • N64 says:

      ~ If LT recycles an old photo that hasn’t posted here for a long time, this place is gonna be like Ralphie decoding Be Sure To Drink Your Ovaltine. ~

    • Wonder Llama says:

      I always imagine a still from the scene in Highlander where Sean Connery and Christopher Lambert are on a boat in the middle of some Scottish loch. “B-A-L-A-N-C-E”

  19. pdaouster says:

    Hall’s status this trade deadline is fascinating from a GM decision-making perspective. In order to trade Hall, Chayka would in effect be admitting a mistake was made in acquiring him in the first place. Admitting mistakes is very difficult for old school leaders. Is it more palatable for new school leaders? I don’t know. Chayka tried to arm his team in a playoff chase and it hasn’t worked as desired. Fortunately, his previous decision is reversible this deadline. I wonder if that was a consideration at the time of acquisition? If a deadline deal transpires, can undoing your own work really be considered a mistake? Maybe it is successive good decisions. We wait.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      ~ Chayka is an Analytics guy; You think he would have checked the percentages on a Taylor Hall lead team making the playoffs ~
      .
      .
      .
      .
      kidding..

  20. npanciroli says:

    Chayka has to recoup Hall assets, he’d be insane not to. They are done.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      But the Analytics tell us they are not mathematically DONE yet. 😉

      #ChaykasNoPokerPlayer

      #KnowWhenToHoldEmKnowWhenToFoldEm

  21. Wonder Llama says:

    Hey Lowetide faithful. Hope everyone’s good today and I hope this is an okay day to drop a wall of text on you. I read almost every day but I don’t post a lot as I feel completely outclassed in fancystats knowledge and usually by the time I think of something useful to say someone else has already said it.

    I am llargely a llurking llama, llaying llow, lliving my llife and llearning from llegends llike Lladies Llove Smid.

    I suspect there are many regular readers/infrequent posters like me, so if my goofy dictionary can provide a few laughs I feel like I’ve given a little bit back to the group. I am like Salieri at the end of Amadeus, absolving Analytics Mediocrities everywhere.

    So here is the LOWETIDE DICTIONARY, 3rd edition, incorporating more suggested terms and an open-ended community format for expansion and eventual publication in a respected peer-reviewed journal. There are 20 new entries for a total of 57 (including the four contributed by BONE207).

    PART A: WONDER LLAMA LLOWETIDE LLEXICON (A – D)

    ALSO IN PHOTO: A sports journalism-inspired Lowetidian euphemism for “late to the play.” Example: “Number 12 Yvan Cournoyer hugs an elated Paul Henderson in front of a prone Vladislav Tretiak. Also in photo: future salt miner Yuri Lyapkin.”

    AUSTINS: Towards the end of the DoD (Decade Of Darkness) Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle received contracts with identical $6,000,000 AAVs. They were the Six Million Dollar Men; the Steve Austins. These contracts were better, stronger, and faster than other contracts. They proved that young stars would make long-term commitments to the northernmost city in the NHL. Lowetidians scoffed at the cake-eaters and pool loungers of Winnipeg and Buffalo. Good times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGO57y4td-c

    BALANCE PHOTO: A mythical image promised for years to the Lowetide faithful when the Oilers roster is finally packed with pecks of pickled Pisscutters and Pisanis. Its appearance will herald a new Oilers Dynasty and the simultaneous psychic orgasm of Lowetidians around the world.

    BARKING CORGIS: A rare example of LRS (Lowetidian Rhyming Slang). In this case corgi = corsi. Corsi is a measure of official shots, missed shots, and blocked shots originally named by early Oilers blogger Tim Barnes (aka Vic Ferrari) arbitrarily yet appropriately after Buffalo Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi. Whatever. When the small royal dogs are yapping the Oilers are pushing the frozen disc of vulcanized rubber in the correct direction.

    CALM YOUR TITS: Hold your horses. Mellow your manatees. Placate your platypuses. Sedate your salamanders. Temper your tardigrades. It’s just a game.

    CAMPING BOX: Arguably Lowetide’s greatest childhood story. Soon to be a major motion picture starring Hugh Bonneville, Emma Thompson, and Iain Armitage as Young LT.

    CAN’T PISS A DROP: The inability to score points at the NHL level (see Steve MacIntyre, Jean-Francois Jacques, Zack Stortini, Ryan O’Marra, Luke Gazdic, and of course, Rob Shremp).

    CFP: Chris Fucking Pronger. It’s a long story.

    CHASED BY BEES: When a player (typically a forward with above-average offensive skills) drives his linemates and coaches to drink cheap screech because he is unable or unwilling to skate within a recognizable system of positional play.

    COKE MACHINE: Lowetidian euphemism for a large, lumbering forward with limited offensive potential but who can throw a punch. If he ever catches up to that “enigmatic Russian,” he might even throw a TBC (Thunderous Body Check). Oilers management acquired a bewildering number of these players during the DOD. Statistically speaking, actual Coke machines are probably more dangerous. https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/58235/11-mundane-objects-are-statistically-deadlier-sharks

    CROOKED NUMBERS: Zeros are round. Ones are straight. Crooked is better. We wait.

    DANCES WITH BEES: Nail Yakupov’s Sioux name. (Okay, I made that one up).

    DEAD CAT BOUNCE: The deceptive temporary sign of life that a player or team displays just before his or its final collapse. Often occurring as the result of a desperate structural change like firing the head coach. The Oilers’ 9-2-2 record from Nov. 20 to Dec. 14, 2018 under new coach Ken Hitchcock was a dead cat bounce. Don’t bounce cats, dead or alive.

    DECADE OF DARKNESS: 2006-2015; essentially the period between game 7 of the 2006 finals and the 2015 draft lottery win. Most Lowetidians developed their sophisticated understanding of scotch and rye whisky during this time.

    DONNER PARTY: The final stage of many Oilers seasons. After the OP-timism of early days Lowetidians survive the Gales of November and hope for the best. But after too many Tabernac Saturdays we are visited by Nadir’s Raiders and finally resort to cannibalism wondering if the best players on the team are actually the problem. https://twitter.com/brendelbored/status/1069046253827305473?lang=en

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    Tippett > MacT ??

    Ken Holland Presser => MacT Presser ???

    # iHeartKenHolland

  23. v4ance says:

    Really like the playoff style the Oilers demonstrated against the Bruins while shorthanded last game. Some people have said that it’s Tippett’s influence growing over the season but I believe we’ve seen this tenacity from the start of the October. During that hot streak to start the year, the team never let opponents get more than one goal ahead before we came back to tie it back up in many contests. It’s an alchemy that most teams don’t find but once you see it on your team, you just know they have chemistry that makes them resilient as a group.

    ***

    I am Mike Smith’s biggest critic but I will say he played well last game. He battled start to finish and did give the weakened roster a chance to win and that’s all you can ask.

    My concern is that he is vulnerable to any plays where he has to make any lateral movement. I challenge everyone to watch replays of the last four goals scored against him. He gets scored on in every possible fashion because he aggressively challenges shooters too fast and too soon. Five Hole, the Forsberg move, high blocker, low blocker; get him moving and it’s pick a hole, win a prize time.

    ***

    I don’t wish injury on any Oiler but I hope Russell stays out long enough for Lagesson and Jones to play a couple more solid games. Maybe it will convince the management that we actually have some quality assets to trade for a scoring forward if we wanted to go a bit younger on D.

    I’ve been one of Bear’s biggest fans since October. I wouldn’t have said he was our best defenceman but I can see how some others might be thinking that now. I proposed an 8x $3M AAV in late October, then an 8x $3.5M AAV in January and now I hope Bear gets offered an 8x $4M AAV extension now. I’ve said all along that once you identify quality, sign the player to as long a deal as you can before he gets too much leverage and pushes up the price. I feel Bear has proven that he’s a Top 4 D over this season and this will be our last chance to get him signed to an amazing long term bargain deal.

    ***

    For the first time since 2016, this trade deadline sees the Oilers in a playoff chase. It’s been too few and far between. Monitoring the out of town scoreboard every night is a novelty we’ve all rediscovered while we’ve maintained our place in the playoff hunt. Too often by now, we’ve been deep into draft discussions and the OOT scores didn’t really matter. I like this feeling!

  24. meanashell11 says:

    Wonder Llama,

    You forgot

    FCP: Fuck Chris Pronger (note name changed after he left)

    • Wonder Llama says:

      That’s just mean. Mean as…

    • Bruce McCurdy says:

      My recollection is FCP was the trade *to* Edmonton, & CFP the trade *from*.

      “Holy shit! We just got Fucking Chris Pronger!!! 😁😁😁”

      vs.

      “that rat bastard Chris Fucking Pronger forced a trade. Why can’t I find this new guy Five Assets in hockeydb? 😡😡😡”

  25. Esa10 says:

    For the Math people out here, I was having a debate with a friend about the effectiveness of adding Jimmy Vessy and Zemgus Girgensons.

    Would they add value to the lineup? What would be the acquisition cost?

  26. Oilin4 says:

    Win tonight and CGY loss and Edmonton is in.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Two games left before the trade deadline.

    No matter how they do in these two games, the team has put themselves in a solid position and the GM has expressly said he would like to provide some help. At the same time, he has qualified it by reference to acquisition cost, etc.

    It will be interesting to see what he can bring in and if he’s able to get creative because cap needs to go out if he’s bringing in anything more than apx $1M.

    Anyways, the Oilers have some “winnable games” coming up – well no game is easy in the NHL but games against teams below them in the standings. Hopefully they don’t start reading their own press clippings and realize its been hard work that has led to the success with the depleted lineup.

    Need two points against a non so great Wild team.

    Koski gets the start tonight.

    I don’t imagine any changes to the lineup (i.e. Bouchard in) except, well, McDavid has not been ruled out. I doubt he plays tonight but there is a chance.

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    fries n gravy:
    If John Chayka has full autonomy he trades Hall by Monday.If not, we know that Arizona’s owners are meddling.

    I was thinking about that as well and came to the exact opposite conclusion. No way they trade Hall. They still have a chance at playoffs even if it’s remote. That would be a terrible message to send to the team.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Arizona winning percentage pre and post Hall aquisition??

      • wolf8888 says:

        Didn’t they lose their starting goaltender just after he arrived? If so the before and after winning percentage may not reflect much.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really hope the Oilers don’t do what they’ve been guilty of a little over the years and “let up” against teams they “should beat” – the last 4-5 games they were “up against the 8-ball” and they needed to bring that “Tippett game” that full 100% team effort in order to give themselves a chance.

    You know what Oilers, you still need to bring that game, even if McDavid is back in the lineup.

    Here is hoping Tippett is able to instill that message in them.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      ” they needed to bring that “Tippett game” that full 100% team effort in order to give themselves a chance.”

      McDavids abscence gave tehm the opportunity to learn what it takes to compete in this league.

      The opportunity was presented.

      Was the lesson learned?

  30. Litke 94 says:

    How is everyone reading into Holland’s comments yesterday re: Puljujarvi?

    Was he bluffing? Have no teams truly asked about him? Has he truly not shopped him?

    Hard not to wonder if this isn’t a bit of gamesmanship from Kenny to try and force this issue with Puljujarvi to come back next year and play for the Oilers, as no other option may exist….

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      He was definitely sending the Puljujarvi camp a message, thats for sure.

      #KennysAGrinder

      He also knows poker.

      #KennyRogers

    • godot10 says:

      You aren’t going to get a good offer if it looks like you are shopping him. So Holland doesn’t shop him.

      You wait for people to call on the player.

      But if you are pursuing someone, you might bring him up as something you would be willing to trade for that player.

  31. pdaouster says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Sure, that’s the downside but the upside is Hall’s lottery record!

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cap space is indeed an issue what looking at a deadline acquisition.

    With that said, it really shouldn’t be too difficult to get creative.

    For example, lets say they were looking to acquire, say, Namestnikov from Ottawa and had a deal for the 2021 3rd rounder. Oilers can’t afford to take that cap hit on but Ottawa could simply take back Gagner or retain half on Namestnikov in order to consummate the trade. Taking on Gagner doesn’t really matter for Ottawa (except for some dollars for Melnyk).

    That would likely raise the acquisition cost, maybe its the 2021 3rd rounder plus the 7th rounder, for example.

    It could be done.

    ————————————–

    What about Namestnikov and Tierney for Gagner and the 2020 2nd rounder?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      “That would likely raise the acquisition cost, maybe its the 2021 3rd rounder plus the 7th rounder, for example.”

      Someone should create a chart that defines what $1m in cap space is worth.

      Similar to the chart where we know that the #10 Pick in the first round is equal to a #15 + #27..or whatever.

      That way we could reasonably estimate what it would take for a deal like you describe above.

      Namestnikov is a UFA at $4m. What does it cost Ottawa to retain $3m at this time of year and what is that worth? a 7th? a 5th? a 4th?

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Taylor Hall is a non-starter for the Oilers – it makes zero sense.

    I wonder if Soderberg shakes loose…..

  34. fries n gravy says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’m just guessing. Here’s my rationale:
    – AZ now realizes Hall will not sign an extension.
    – AZ now realizes there’s a 1/31 chance he resigns in July.
    – AZ can more or less recoup the cost in a trade now. This changes a big asset f-up into a hockey trade (assets out, Hall in, Hall out, assets in).
    – Chayka can either take a weird move now (3rd point above) or get fired in two years for running his team into the ground. Chayka is not a dumb guy, hence I think Chayka will withdraw and regroup for 2021. He has an easy excuse (goalie down) built in, so not too much egg on his face.

    What’s behind your opposite conclusion?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I think the “key” to the whole thing as a GM is…”Has Hall expressed to you a desire to re-sign / negotiate?”

      Cause if he hasnt, he’s almost ceraintly not coming back without testing Free Agency.

      What is it Hall doesnt already know about the Organization, the Team, and the Location, that he is going to learn between now and Free Agency? …nothing.

      That means Hall definitley wants to test Free Agency, and at best, Arizona will be bidding on him.

      You can sell him now and still bid on him in the summer.

      #AnalyzeThat

      Analytics is not all numbers; Its also Applied Logic.

  35. Stud Muffin says:

    What moves make the Balance photo come to fruition?

    • Bag of Pucks says:

      Top 6 W and 3C I suspect.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Step 1: Tools and Materials.
      Step 2: Developer: 1 part concentrate to 4 parts water. …
      Step 3: Stop Bath. …
      Step 4: Fixer. …
      Step 5: Wetting Agent. …
      Step 6: Developing Tank. …
      Step 7: Dark Room. …
      Step 8: LT gets off his lazy……boy 🙂

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        Alternate Step 8: LT panicked by the hype from the last 10 years, locks himself in the bathroom for the enitre weekend, praying to the heavens for inspiration

        #TheCreativeProcess

  36. fries n gravy says:

    JimmyV1965,

    BTW, I agree that’d be a terrible message to send to the team, assuming the assets in are mostly futures.

  37. who says:

    v4ance:
    Really like the playoff style the Oilers demonstrated against the Bruins while shorthanded last game.Some people have said that it’s Tippett’s influence growing over the season but I believe we’ve seen this tenacity from the start of the October.During that hot streak to start the year, the team never let opponents get more than one goal ahead before we came back to tie it back up in many contests.It’s an alchemy that most teams don’t find but once you see it on your team, you just know they have chemistry that makes them resilient as a group.

    ***

    I am Mike Smith’s biggest critic but I will say he played well last game.He battled start to finish and did give the weakened roster a chance to win and that’s all you can ask.

    My concern is that he is vulnerable to any plays where he has to make any lateral movement.I challenge everyone to watch replays of the last four goals scored against him. He gets scored on in every possible fashion because he aggressively challenges shooters too fast and too soon.Five Hole, the Forsberg move, high blocker, low blocker; get him moving and it’s pick a hole, win a prize time.

    ***

    I don’t wish injury on any Oiler but I hope Russell stays out long enough for Lagesson and Jones to play a couple more solid games.Maybe it will convince the management that we actually have some quality assets to trade for a scoring forward if we wanted to go a bit younger on D.

    I’ve been one of Bear’s biggest fans since October.I wouldn’t have said he was our best defenceman but I can see how some others might be thinking that now.I proposed an 8x $3M AAV in late October, then an 8x $3.5M AAV in January and now I hope Bear gets offered an 8x $4M AAV extension now.I’ve said all along that once you identify quality, sign the player to as long a deal as you can before he gets too much leverage and pushes up the price.I feel Bear has proven that he’s a Top 4 D over this season and this will be our last chance to get him signed to an amazing long term bargain deal.

    ***

    For the first time since 2016, this trade deadline sees the Oilers in a playoff chase.It’s been too few and far between.Monitoring the out of town scoreboard every night is a novelty we’ve all rediscovered while we’ve maintained our place in the playoff hunt.Too often by now, we’ve been deep into draft discussions and the OOT scores didn’t really matter.I like this feeling!

    Sounds like we are going to get a couple weeks at least to evaluate Jones on the 2nd pairing and Lagesson on the 3rd.
    If they perform as well as they did last game which veteran dman would you trade for a scoring forward?
    I don’t think Russell gets you much in a trade so that leaves Klefbom or Nurse. Those are the 2 defenseman on this team that would garner a significant scoring forward.
    It feels a year too early to me, but if Holland thinks Jones is the goods, I guess it could happen this summer.

  38. elgruntus says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Gambardella – Granlund – Currie
    Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
    Vesey – Esposito – Hebig
    Koules – Starrett – Peluso

    Who knew there were two ways to kill an AHL roster.

    Drafting like shit….and drafting well.

    Is Safin hurt? If he can’t displace Koules or Peluso, it doesn’t bode well

  39. barry.moore23 says:

    Wonder Llama,

    “Too much month at the end of the money”

    Maybe you had this one and I missed it. Regardless, thanks for your work.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    Before we all dump on Hall, probably best to consider that the Yotes lost Kuemper to injury almost immediately after acquiring Hall, and Taylor has been productive offensively.

    All that said, Chayka paid too much for a rental imo.

    Most of the acknowledged analytics driven teams are on the bubble this season. From my experience, big data can be transformative but most organizations struggle to integrate it operationally. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      “Before we all dump on Hall,”

      We’re not dumping on Hall…

      We’re participating in that annual tradition known as “the toilet bowl”

      #TRADITION!

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Data is just data. Its what you do with the data that matters.

      It took decades for BIg Data to become transformative for most buisnesses.

      Hockey is a business.

      The data is just now forming into some kind of shape….imo

      LT and WG and Dellow and others were cutting edge….And they would readily acknowledge the other term for cutting edge is “bleeding edge”

      The early adopters get some gains; They also get the pains.

      Analytics in sports is now mainstream; and its about to explode. In a good way. imo

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        Very few inventors ever reap the fruits of their efforts. Its almost always the 2nd and 3rd and 4th itterations who reap the windfall.

        • Andy Dufresne says:

          If the Gold sits atop the mountain, who is the winner; the guy who scales the mountain for the fist time, or the guy who swoops in by helicopter at the last minute and scoops up all the gold?

          Your answer, in large part, defines who you are.

          • TheGreatBigMac says:

            It will be interesting to see if teams start getting into machine learning to analyze the game. You can imagine all kinds of insights that could be gleaned. To do it now players & equipment would need to be outfitted with tracking devices. But if you set up enough cameras maybe players could be tracked close enough to do it ala Amazon Go.

      • nelson88 says:

        As someone who deals daily with big data and likely knows better than most the potential gains and pitfalls of analytics and models I generally agree with your overarching premise.

        Your suggestion that some of the early adopters/zealots for analytics would acknowledge both sides of the coin I can not get on board with. The unbridled arrogance of Dellow and a few others (not LT or WG) almost put me off of this and other excellent hockey sites for good.

  41. JimmyV1965 says:

    fries n gravy:
    JimmyV1965,

    I’m just guessing.Here’s my rationale:
    – AZ now realizes Hall will not sign an extension.
    – AZ now realizes there’s a 1/31 chance he resigns in July.
    – AZ can more or less recoup the cost in a trade now. This changes a big asset f-up into a hockey trade (assets out, Hall in, Hall out, assets in).
    – Chayka can either take a weird move now (3rd point above) or get fired in two years for running his team into the ground.Chayka is not a dumb guy, hence I think Chayka will withdraw and regroup for 2021.He has an easy excuse (goalie down) built in, so not too much egg on his face.

    What’s behind your opposite conclusion?

    I agree that Hall should be traded. It’s the logical thing to do. But these decisions aren’t being made in a vacuum. Human emotions come into play. What does this say to the players? It would also make the GM look less than stellar. And the team still isn’t out of it, even if the odds are stacked against them. And you can always hope he does resign, even if that is unlikely. Full props to Chayka if he does trade him. I just don’t see it happening.

    • pts2pndr says:

      Given that Hall has stated publicly that he intends to try out free agency it tells the players on the team that the team comes first and that the players remaining matter.

  42. defmn says:

    Stud Muffin:
    What moves make the Balance photo come to fruition?

    WInger for McDavid and an upgrade at 3C are the minimum.

    The cap pretty much insures that no team is going to open a season with every spot filled in an ideal manner but if the Oilers add those two players without losing any quality at the other positions I would call the team balanced for speed, size, skill & experience.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    v4ance,

    Good post. With Bear’s contract, I would argue that you often see some regression with a 2nd year player (bloody sophomore jinx) and that might be the best time to get Ethan on a longterm value deal. Another plus of doing it then is you give the player a much needed jolt of confidence when he’s going through a rough patch.

    • pts2pndr says:

      While I agree it is not uncommon to see a sophomore jinx. I would submit that with an off season addition of a winger to play with Connor this teams fortunes will continue to rise. Rising water floats all boats and it is entirely possible that Bear has an even better year 20/21. The ask after two years could be substantially higher. The prudent thing to do in my opinion is to get him signed to a long term cost effective contract. Set the team precedence ( do not agree to any no move or no trade clauses ).

    • godot10 says:

      Bear would be arbitration eligible next year.

      A team gets one chance at the end of the ELC to get a long term value deal. For Bear, this summer, it is like eight x $4.5 million.

      Otherwise, you are transitioning him for two years, and paying $6 something in two years for a deal with duration.

  44. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Since Dec 16 (trade to ARI) – Hall 5v5

    2.19 P/60
    -0.31 CF%rel
    2.76% GFrel
    7.31% xGFrel

    In NJ pre-Dec 16

    1.73 P/60
    1.51% CFrel
    -0.12% GFrel
    -0.27% xGFrel

    I don’t know that he’s really a star anymore. Only 28, weird that he doesn’t seem to be the same player already. What does that say about EDM’s window? Draisaitl’s 25 in October. Need to make better use of their cap & burn here.

    Neal/Russell/Koskinen/Kassian are contracts they could do without. $17.5M

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Best part of home game Friday? No retina assaulting unis!!!

    Love the navy blues 🍻

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      FunFact O’ The Day

      Dave Semenko was a “Retina Assaulting Unit”

      Once detached a guys retina with one punch.

      #LoveThoseBabyBlues*
      .
      .
      *But dont get too attached

  46. drglen says:

    love the line about being able to barbecue while the game is on… ! I know what you mean… do I get a new coffee, or fold the laundry.. during the game.. or not. Depends on how likely it seems that someone will score.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid skating early.

    https://twitter.com/tsnryanrishaug/status/1230893333695868932?s=21

    Main group skates at 1030 but it’s just an optional. Will probably have to wait until after and hear what Tip has to say and I would reckon he’ll be non-committal either way on McDavid.

  48. Oil2Oilers says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    This is an Analytics site.

    Please show your work. 🙂

    I will take a stab at this for OilIn4;

    Should the Oilers win and the Flames lose tonight, the playoffs are extremely likely because;

    The Flames will be 5 points back with 20 games to play. The Oilers will have 21 games remaining.

    The Flames would have to win 3 more games than the Oilers over the remaining season. Hot streaks and cold streaks are of course possible at anytime of year, but in the Betman point era where some game award 3 points and some 2 it is very difficult to make such a surge. Teams and there win % are largely what they are by now.

    Deadline deal’s rarely move the needle in the remaining regular season games, though can help in the playoffs once the players have settled in. Injuries also can impact, but both Calgary and Edmonton have already suffered worse case scenario injuries already to there top two players. Barring an unforeseen set back on Klefbom this will not be a factor.

    Lastly goal tending, both teams have goalie tandems where I cannot tell you who the better goalie is, so barring a stubborn coach riding a bad goalie this should be a wash.

    So big game(s) tonight that could bake in a playoff birth of no worse than 3d in the Pacific for the Oilers or send the whole this back to Love.

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    Gambardella – Granlund – Currie
    Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
    Vesey – Esposito – Hebig
    Koules – Starrett – Peluso

    Unless there are some serious improvements made to this roster over the summer, no way do I want Broberg in Bakersfield.

    I get that the rookies will be a year older and Lavoie and (hopefully) Berglund will help reinforce this roster, but it just isn’t enough. Holland needs to add some college free agents this spring, and maybe even bring some skill in from other organizations.

  50. drglen says:

    don’t trade anyone good, unless it’s a cap thing.

    You could try to move Kris Russell, try to move James Neal.. and you could try to unload any of JP, Khaira, P Russell, Chaisson, Ganger, Cave obviously, .. but don’t move any of our other defenders unless it’s an absolute slam dunk home run steal of a deal… and those players are not out there.

    Ottawa will want too much for Pageu , problem is Lagesson and Jones, both look like keepers to me. But if a move had to be made it probably is lagesson… who would get so much ice on a new building team it seems to me. Good for him, bad for us, because I think he’s got Larry Robinson potential. It would be nice to see if he’s got a shot.

    I still think Thorton might be the outlier for a playoff push.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/four-potential-trade-destinations-joe-thornton/

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Picture is coming into focus. I’d guess Vegreville and Nashville will get in and Yotes and Wild are out leaving 4 Western Canadian teams fighting for 3 playoff spots.#cancon #turtlegolf

    Why would you guess those two teams are in over the Oilers?

    Vegas is one point ahead of the Oil but the Oil have 2 games in hand.

    Nashville is six points back of the Oilers with only one game in hand.

    • N64 says:

      I could have added that I also thing the far most likely outcome is that either the Flames or Jets are out.

      But there is enough time left for the Oil or Canucks to go on a bad run and get caught by the Flames or Jets.

      I expect Nashville but will only pass Pacific teams that fall hard out of the top 3.

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        Anyone missing the calculation that brings us one step lower in the standings so as to get better lottery odds?!?..Anyone?…Anyone?..Bueller?

  52. slopitch says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Taylor Hall is a non-starter for the Oilers – it makes zero sense.

    I wonder if Soderberg shakes loose…..

    Zero sense? The Oilers need a quality winger for McDavid. The goal is to build a good hockey team and Taylor Hall is a good hockey player. Who would would the Oilers be an underdog in the West with Hall on the existing lineup? Not many to my eye. I can agree that it might not work (cost too high) and there may be a better fit (ie 2 way winger). But cap-wise, they can trade for Hall now and move Larsson and Russell this summer so I think its worth exploring. Hall isnt gonna get 10m after this season.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Winning the Art Ross, James Norris & Conn Smythe is called “The Brogan Rafferty Hattrick.”

  54. Numenius says:

    v4ance: I don’t wish injury on any Oiler but I hope Russell stays out long enough for Lagesson and Jones to play a couple more solid games.

    Lagesson and Jones definitely deserve games.

    The best possible scenario, though, is for Russell to be healthy so he can be traded at the deadline!

    *Fingers crossed*

  55. Stud Muffin says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I can agree with this but would also add a 3RW as part of the list as well.

  56. who says:

    drglen:
    don’t trade anyone good, unless it’s a cap thing.

    You could try to move Kris Russell, try to move James Neal..and you could try to unload any of JP, Khaira, P Russell,Chaisson, Ganger, Cave obviously, .. but don’t move any of our other defenders unless it’s an absolute slam dunk home run steal of a deal… and those players are not out there.

    Ottawa will want too much for Pageu , problem is Lagesson and Jones, both look like keepers to me.But if a move had to be made it probably is lagesson… who would get so much ice on a new building team it seems to me. Good for him, bad for us, because I think he’s got Larry Robinson potential.It would be nice to see if he’s got a shot.

    I still think Thorton might be the outlier for a playoff push.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/four-potential-trade-destinations-joe-thornton/

    Larry Robinson potential?
    That’s a pretty strong statement about a 23 year old with 5 NHL games.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    Esa10:
    For the Math people out here, I was having a debate with a friend about the effectiveness of adding Jimmy Vessy and Zemgus Girgensons.

    Would they add value to the lineup? What would be the acquisition cost?

    I think both are good targets, and I don’t think either will break the bank. I think Vesey is the better player, but ymmv.

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr:
    Given that Hall has stated publicly that he intends to try out free agency it tells the players on the team that the team comes first and that the players remaining matter.

    In the short term, it tells the players I don’t think you are good enough to make the playoffs. We might think they are out of it, but the players certainly don’t feel that way.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      “I’m Good Enough, I’m Smart Enough, and Doggone It, People Like Me!” Stuart Smiley (courtesy of Woodguy’s memory bank) 🙂

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        In the words of the late great Pat Quinn “Tell the players?!?…Pfft..tell’em schmel’em!”… This is Hockey! Theres no crying in Hockey!

        • Andy Dufresne says:

          If Im a player and im looking at Tampa and Boston and St Louis, I want the assets.

          On the other hand…its possible that Hall boosts my boxcars and gets me more money on mynext contract

          #conundrum

    • pts2pndr says:

      The alternative is going all in on a Texas holdem with your rent money on a pair of deuces to save your macho image.

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    slopitch: Zero sense? The Oilers need a quality winger for McDavid. The goal is to build a good hockey team and Taylor Hall is a good hockey player. Who would would the Oilers be an underdog in the West with Hall on the existing lineup? Not many to my eye. I can agree that it might not work (cost too high) and there may be a better fit (ie 2 way winger). But cap-wise, they can trade for Hall now and move Larsson and Russell this summer so I think its worth exploring. Hall isnt gonna get 10m after this season.

    – If Hall wants to take a “home town discount” for a team that traded him, and go back to a City and province that he’s not from, and wants to sign a 3 x $6.MM contract, do that

    – If Hall is like virtually every other hockey player, and he is mercurial and has said for years he wants to explore free-agency, and good teams offer him term + money, he’s going to do that

    – Given his injury history, I don’t buy for narrative that he’s going to gamble on perhaps a more lucrative TV contract, and sign short-term. Dude is going to get paid, and he deserves it

    – Unless there is a fairy-tale ending for a player in their prime taking a massive gamble on future, earnings to come back to a team and get paid far below his market rate, its not going to happen

    – I guess it depends on what one thinks he gets paid: I suspect it has a 8-handle

  60. N64 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Anyone missing the calculation that brings us one step lower in the standings so as to get better lottery odds?!?..Anyone?…Anyone?..Bueller?

    My preference would be 2nd in the Pacific. For 3rd would prefer Jets or Dys while Turtle cross-checks on the links.

    Let Vegreville play Nashville.

  61. who says:

    N64: My preference would be 2nd in the Pacific. For 3rd would prefer Jets or Dys while Turtle cross-checking on the links.

    Let Vegreville play Nashville.

    Don’t think the Jets are going to finish 3rd in the Pacific.

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    Ondrej Kase to the Bruins for a first and the corpse of David Backes.

  63. YKOil says:

    Would Florida consider trading Connolly? What would that cost us?

  64. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Cap space is indeed an issue what looking at a deadline acquisition.

    With that said, it really shouldn’t be too difficult to get creative.

    For example, lets say they were looking to acquire, say, Namestnikov from Ottawa and had a deal for the 2021 3rd rounder. Oilers can’t afford to take that cap hit on but Ottawa could simply take back Gagner or retain half on Namestnikov in order to consummate the trade. Taking on Gagner doesn’t really matter for Ottawa (except for some dollars for Melnyk).

    That would likely raise the acquisition cost, maybe its the 2021 3rd rounder plus the 7th rounder, for example.

    It could be done.

    ————————————–

    What about Namestnikov and Tierney for Gagner and the 2020 2nd rounder?

    Cap space is not an issue. Holland just needs to place Brodziak and Neal on LTIR retroactively and for the remainder of the season.

    😁

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    wolf:
    Didn’t they lose their starting goaltender just after he arrived? If so the before and after winning percentage may not reflect much.

    Rannta leads the league in save percentage over the last while.

    I read something like he’s at a .941 over a stretch and the Yotes are 4-3-1 in that period (not exact stats but close, I think).

    Socring is the issue for them.

  66. Gerta Rauss says:

    ArmchairGM: Cap space is not an issue. Holland just needs to place Brodziak and Neal on LTIR retroactively and for the remainder of the season.

    😁

    DNB has a piece up at the Athletic confirming Brodziak has been on LTIR since game 2

    Capfriendly still hasn’t been updated but take that info for what it’s worth

  67. Woogie63 says:

    I believe KH is looking for a LW that will improve their game by playing with McDavid aka Maroon, Kassian.

    The Top 3 on my list would be

    Athanasiou
    Wood
    Saad

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Rannta leads the league in save percentage over the last while.

    I read something like he’s at a .941 over a stretch and the Yotes are 4-3-1 in that period (not exact stats but close, I think).

    Socring is the issue for them.

    Raanta was .878 in January, but has been .949 in February. Arizona’s GF is essentially flat since Hall arrived: 2.63 before and 2.66 after the trade. You’re right about their February scoring, it’s down to 2.18 (3rd worst in the league) despite Raanta holding the opposition to 2.27 (4th best in the league). Their record in Feb is 4-5-2.

  69. Chris says:

    barry.moore23,

    Keep you powder dry…

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Could you deal Neal + 1st for Robby Fabbri?

    Would you?

  71. defmn says:

    Gerta Rauss: DNB has a piece up at the Athletic confirming Brodziak has been on LTIR since game 2

    Capfriendly still hasn’t been updated but take that info for what it’s worth

    Smith is at 33 games played and collects his 4th bonus of $125,000 once he plays his 35th game. After that every five games adds $250,000 plus unspecified bonuses for playoff games.

    I am not advocating keeping him out of the lineup to save cap hit but it is something that could cause the team to be dinged on next year’s cap if they cut things too close.

    No idea what triggers bonuses for Haas, Yamamoto or Bear but Haas’s bonus is significant at $637,500.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Yeah but one day of McDavid LTIR is like 10 Biiiilion dollars.

      But seriously, that is good info. Thank You.

  72. defmn says:

    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    ·
    29m
    McDavid will not play tonight.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Minnisota is type of team that you need to Tippett style hockey against.

      All things considered, Im not overly disappointed.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    BagofPucks:
    Before we all dump on Hall, probably best to consider that the Yotes lost Kuemper to injury almost immediately after acquiring Hall, and Taylor has been productive offensively.

    All that said, Chayka paid too much for a rental imo.

    Most of the acknowledged analytics driven teams are on the bubble this season. From my experience, big data can be transformative but most organizations struggle to integrate it operationally. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

    Since December 16, the date of the Hall trade:

    Adin Hill – 13 games, .918/2.62
    Antti Raanta – 19 games .923/2.58

    Goals against have not been the issue for Arizona.

  74. Pretendergast says:

    Show me Rackell for a first, James Neal retained, Puljujarvi and (insert prospect D).

    Rackell with more value than Kase but our 1st and prospect D are better and Pujo is my Omark, just throw him in.

    Damn it Murray do it even though it’s the same trade you just made kinda.

  75. russ99 says:

    Wonder Llama,

    Awesome!

    I for one would definitely go see the camping box movie. Maybe we can get Sam Mendes to direct.

  76. Cassandra says:

    That is a ludicrous trade for the Ducks.

    Axel Anderson is not a real prospect, so that is nothing.

    The got a very late first round pick for Kase and tacking Backes. That is crazy. Taking Backes, even with the salary retained, is worth a 2nd round pick

    So the Bruins got Kase for almost free, while the Lightning got Coleman for two first round picks.

    When did Don Sweeney get good?

  77. Gerta Rauss says:

    defmn,

    You should read DNBs piece because he covers all the bonuses- money is tight right now carrying 27 players on the roster

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: Since December 16, the date of the Hall trade:

    Adin Hill – 13 games, .918/2.62
    Antti Raanta – 19 games .923/2.58

    Goals against have not been the issue for Arizona.

    Kuemper is 3rd overall in sv pct at .929

    Having elite goaltending is fairly impactful when your team is not an offensive juggernaut.

    It’s extremely possible that the Yotes have had to play a more defensive system thus sacrificing some offensive chances since their 1G went down.

    Btw, what’s happening on fake Twitter today?

  79. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bogosian and the Sabres agree to terminate the remainder of his $5M contract. He’ll be a UFA shortly

    I’m not advocating picking him up, just saying that sometimes pro athletes do indeed walk away from enormous sums of money

    • Side says:

      Yeah but it’s walking away from Buffalo, which I imagine, the positive impact that has on his psyche is priceless.

      Edmonton is a city that always seems to get a bad rap, deserved and undeserved, but the players who do play here at least seem to enjoy the place. It’s not often you see grown hockey players getting traded from a city and crying over it.

      But Buffalo on the other hand…. I imagine players wake up in a cold sweat and in tears because their subconscious reminded them they live in and play for Buffalo…

      • Gerta Rauss says:

        Yeah for sure

        And I’m sure he’ll sign before Monday, so he’s walking away from wheelbarrows full of money to sign for less wheelbarrows full of money

        And he’ll get to play, something that wasn’t on the horizon in BUF

    • godot10 says:

      He isn’t walking away from enormous sums of money. He was a pending UFA who didn’t want to report to the AHL. 20 games left in the season. He is giving up a million bucks, after earning over $40 million in his career.

  80. Marlowe says:

    drglen,

    Usually folding laundry during the game and grabbing a coffee during the intermission! Gotta multi-task these days with a toddler around 🙂 Thankfully he’s usually sleeping when the game is on.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Smith is at 33 games played and collects his 4th bonus of $125,000 once he plays his 35th game. After that every five games adds $250,000 plus unspecified bonuses for playoff games.

    I am not advocating keeping him out of the lineup to save cap hit but it is something that could cause the team to be dinged on next year’s cap if they cut things too close.

    No idea what triggers bonuses for Haas, Yamamoto or Bear but Haas’s bonus is significant at $637,500.

    Using LTIR relief is an issue vis-a-vis bonuses and cap penalties for next year. This is mainly as issue for Smith’s bonuses.

    I heard today (I think it was the Oil Can podcast) that Bear has already vested his bonus – its only $80K though.

    Of course, putting a guy like Neal or Russell on LTIR for cap space for a deadline acquisition only helps if they are there for the rest of the regular season and that is an unlikely scenario and not one I see our veteran GM or veteran coach promoting with these veteran “locker room” players.

  82. RonnieB says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MIN (-105) at EDM (-115) – EDM opened as a bigger fav but line moved towards MIN. Not sure what to think. EDM playing well but MIN is too going 6-3-1 in their last 10.

    Minnesota has won 14 of their last 17 visits to Edmonton.

    If you’re looking forward to Sunday, Edmonton has lost 15 of their last 16 visits to the Kings.

    Of course, this is a different Oilers team (says he with his hands folded in prayer).

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    BagofPucks: Kuemper is 3rd overall in sv pct at .929

    Having elite goaltending is fairly impactful when your team is not an offensive juggernaut.

    Yes, elite goaltending is impactful.

    The point here is still valid: while tending may have dipped a bit without Keumper, it has still been very very good and the Arizona’s performance issues since the Hall trade relate mainly to lack of goal scoring not too many goals against.

    As was shown above, goal scoring for the Yotes has been flat with the Hall acquisition.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      So are you implying that the Hall Hart comes with an asterisk?

      OR,

      That Taylor Hall is a genius mastermind who knew his team needed bigtime help on defense and so approached Chia about a trade, then proceeded to give the team he got traded too the middle finger so that he could be moved to a team that the Oilers would be contending against for a playoff spot and then would proceed to tank that team and give tehm the middle finger on his way out the door before completing his ingenious plan by re-signing with the Oilers at a deeeeep hometown discount. 🙂

      #TwoCampsOnHall

  84. OilClog says:

    If Oilers could sign Bogosian for min money to be a 7th defender and ship out Russell, that’d be a nice wash. They’re both not good but one is millions less to be not good.

    It’s beautiful watching Leafs Twitter lose their minds over the Bruins trade, Sweeney is a gift giver.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      “It’s beautiful watching Leafs Twitter lose their minds over the Bruins trade”

      HAAAAW Haaaaaa…I never thought of that.

      #Priceless

  85. Andy Dufresne says:

    Grammer!

    The second I seen the betting line I knowed McDavid wasnt playing. FTFY 🙂
    .
    .
    .
    .
    ok…you dont have to say it…I’ll F#ck Off now……

  86. Cassandra says:

    Hall is scoring at a 2.19/60 rate since joining Arizona, with barely any second assists. Best on the team.

    Kessel this year is at 1.01 and -14 5on5
    Keller is at 1.49

    I think we found the problem. Hall makes his teammates worse while sitting on the bench. It is the only explanation.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      All part of the master plan.

      2021…Hall hands Stanley Cup to…………….Adam Larsson 😉

  87. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I heard today (I think it was the Oil Can podcast) that Bear has already vested his bonus – its only $80K though.

    Not that they are always right but CapFriendly says Bear only has a $20,000 bonus built in to his contract.

    Every penny counts. 😉

  88. Andy Dufresne says:

    Id give James Neal a reach-around if agreed to go on LTIR to the end of the regular season

    #TrueFan

  89. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Before we all dump on Hall, probably best to consider that the Yotes lost Kuemper to injury almost immediately after acquiring Hall, and Taylor has been productive offensively.

    All that said, Chayka paid too much for a rental imo.

    Most of the acknowledged analytics driven teams are on the bubble this season. From my experience, big data can be transformative but most organizations struggle to integrate it operationally. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

    Well put. Collecting data isn’t hard, understanding it is. Look at good pollsters are at figuring out elections.

    The problem with Chayka and Dubas is that they have limited experience. Of course we don’t know what they choose to do and what they are told to do, but they wear it.

    MacT made a good coach because he had relevant experience, many players make good coaches. He was a poor GM because an MBA mean you know how to be a good NHL GM. Being a GM is a lot different than knowing how to play the game. It takes time to learn the ropes.

    The over reaction to dinosaurs not evolving with the game is believing the hype about everything’s new, so people that know about the new things are the way and know something we don’t. The fact that a Hrudey spouts off about it should be enough of a warning.

    The reality lies in the middle not at opposite ends. Change with the times and your trump card is a lot of at bats.

  90. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    Hall is scoring at a 2.19/60 rate since joining Arizona, with barely any second assists.Best on the team.

    Kessel this year is at 1.01 and -14 5on5
    Keller is at 1.49

    I think we found the problem.Hall makes his teammates worse while sitting on the bench.It is the only explanation.

    Well if Hall would stop spraying everyone in the face with his water bottle on the bench, they wouldn’t have to go on the ice blinded.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Here’s hoping for another good effort. This one worries me, get Connor 2 points lads.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Except for those 9 months where I was dropping acid…..every game played since 1991 has worried me.

  92. OilClog says:

    Arizona is riding unbelievable goaltending, the GM made a bad gamble. The rest of the team is nowhere near ready or consistent enough to add a player of Taylor Halls caliber.

    They give up a ton of shots, they have a horrendous team shooting % and the coach can’t play all the struggling forwards with Hall to get them going. His highlight reel of dishes he’s been serving in the desert has been very sweet in the short amount of time he’s been there.

    If Holland could give coach Tipps the ability to have either a line of 4/97/who gives a fuck or the Leon Nugent-Yamamotor line on the ice 80% of the game.. They become a favorite instantly, everything is lining up to take the pacific if they play right and take one hell of a shot at the cup.

    Holland does have a history of insulating his contender with talents for the war. It happened in Oct of 96 not the trade deadline but coffee, primeau and a 1st brought in Shanahan

    Shanahan was 28 at the time and went on to well, Carve out his best years.

    Russell, PJ, 1st.

    Here comes the but when he’s 35 he’s going to ruin everything crowd.

    • ArmchairGM says:

      I would seriously consider that package for Rakell, I wouldn’t do it for a Hall rental though.

  93. Bill says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    😁😂👍🏼👍🏼

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Ah yes….you spend the whole afternoon frolicking around and making fun….

      And then the Bill arrives! 🙂

      Not just thumbs up…double thumbs up! Thanks Bill 🙂

      You do realize that for every Bill out there, there are 27 posters saying dont encourage that guy!

      But none of them share your exemplary character and superior intellect. 🙂

  94. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Except for those 9 months where I was dropping acid…..every game played since 1991 has worried me.

    Funny. I was in fact going to ask about the possibility of your acid use earlier in the thread given your extensive and creative word play. That is intended as a compliment.

  95. PennersPancakes says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Bogosian and the Sabres agree to terminate the remainder of his $5M contract. He’ll be a UFA shortly

    I’m not advocating picking him up, just saying that sometimes pro athletes do indeed walk away from enormous sums of money

    Hes not walking away from enormous sums of money though. His cap hit is 5 mill but this is the last year anyways and its 3/4 through the season. Hes forefiting about 1.5 mill without accounting for any possible contract he will sign.

    Plus if he can sign on an NHL team, especially one going to the playoffs that will do way more for his future value than riding the bus in the AHL. Easy decision.

  96. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I like the KH verbal on JP- “nobody’s really asked…”
    Wake up JP. Can’t be a flake and play in the NHL.
    Suggest sucking it up and come to Oil training camp ready to play as you are coached and with a modest apology to the teammates.
    You can have a successful career in the NHL

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      The bitter irony is that JP never got to experience Dave Tippett as a Head Coach.

      TIppett could hold the key to unlocking JP.

  97. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I like the slow play development path for Broberg, a la the Klefbom model.

    D+1 & D+2 in Sweden earning increased ice time, playing against men and working on the finer points of playing without the puck out of the spotlight, and then D+3 in the AHL learning the team systems and smaller ice.

  98. Cassandra says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Well put. Collecting data isn’t hard, understanding it is. Look at good pollsters are at figuring out elections.

    The problem with Chayka and Dubas is that they have limited experience. Of course we don’t know what they choose to do and what they are told to do, but they wear it.

    MacT made a good coach because he had relevant experience, many players make good coaches. He was a poor GM because an MBA mean you know how to be a good NHL GM. Being a GM is a lot different than knowing how to play the game. It takes time to learn the ropes.

    The over reaction to dinosaurs not evolving with the game is believing the hype about everything’s new, so people that know about the new things are the way and know something we don’t. The fact that a Hrudey spouts off about it should be enough of a warning.

    The reality lies in the middle not at opposite ends. Change with the times and your trump card is a lot of at bats.

    This is pretty grossly unfair.

    Dubas isn’t inexperienced. He transformed the organization of the Soo and then he came to the Marlies and did it again.

    He isn’t just an analytics guy. The Leafs player development program is both advanced and innovative. He’s consistently found late round picks and undrafted free agents and turned them into NHL players.

    Every year they find good players in Europe through a commitment to scouting.

    The draft record is outstanding.

    He doesn’t make random trades, the moves are thought out and reasonable, I don’t recall a single one that was a head scratcher, and even ones that seem bad in hindsight (like the Kadri deal) have significant upside (he got the youngest and cheapest player in the deal while upgrading for this year).

    Many good value free agent signings, including overloading the AHL with NHL depth that has kept the a float as they’ve been ravaged by injuries.

    Many, many stories from agents, players, and families about how they’ve been treated with respect by Dubas, going the extra mile. This isn’t a numbers geek without people skills, far from it.

    Really the only negative is the Mathews and Marner contracts. And here it is the Marner contract that really stands out. He definitely lost control of the narrative which set the baseline for the deals much higher than it rationally should have been. Here, however, we don’t have a counter factual since the situation is quite different from seemingly comparable ones. I count this as a negative, but I don’t think it comes from inexperience.

    All in all I think Dubas is easily in the top tier of general managers in the NHL and I don’t think there is a reasonable argument otherwise. Personally, I think he’s the best, though whoever is actually running the show in Carolina also knows what they are doing.

    Chayka I haven’t been following as closely, but I don’t count too many terrible moves. Even the ones that don’t work out often make sense.

    The mistake here is judging managers by wins and losses. I knew Chiarelli was terrible while everyone else was cheering the playoffs. The moves where what the moves were, wins and losses don’t change that. There are too many other variables to evaluate the building of teams based on whether they win or lose.

    • pts2pndr says:

      So you are saying Toronto signing Taveras as a UFA was a smart forward thinking move.

      • GordieHoweHatTrick says:

        You beat me to it!
        I think the JT signing was unnecessary and ill advised. I also think it hamstrings the team from being a true contender. Too much cap upfront.

  99. slopitch says:

    Here’s the trade for Hall.

    Neal + 2020 2nd + Samorukov
    for
    Taylor Hall

    If Hall resigns, they get an extra 2021 2nd. Neal has 19 goals this year, Hall 15. Yotes lose the 1st but get a 2nd back. Oilers get out of the Neal contract. Sign Hall for 8m x 6 years and profit. Hall cant make more than Leon. Also, Yotes have to agree to not play Neal the rest of the year so the Oilers get to keep their 2020 3rd.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I think Hall either wants to come to Edmonton or he doesnt.

      Best to wait till summer.

      After all, Hall has never resigned with a team he got traded to.

    • pts2pndr says:

      Why do you add Samorukov. His being ready to replace Nurse will either keep the ask by Nurse reasonable and or we trade Nurse and move Samorukov into Nurses old spot. Broberg is cover and replacement for Klefbom in three years. We have a pipeline if we don’t piss it away on bad gambles and or rentals. Moving forward we will need value contracts to give us the ability to keep our high end talent/core. The players on D that we can afford to move are Russel and this summer one of Benning or Larson. Tot prospect young D should be untouchable with the possible exception of in a trade for a young cost controlled top six forward.

  100. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I don’t understand the cap situation as is currently reflected on capfriendly right now.

    Why, for the love of Gord, isn’t Brodziak, Russell, Nygard and Neal on LTIR? I know you can do so retroactively and recoup cap space. But not having Brodziak on all season is odd to say the least. We should have ~$9.93MM of cap space available due to LTIR (with Russell, Neal and Brodziak) but CF.com has them at ~$515k of cap space available.

    Any ideas what’s going on?

    • Cassandra says:

      LTIR only counts if you are over the cap. If you are over the cap that means the bonuses carry over to next year. They don’t want the bonuses to carry over hence LTIR doesn’t help.

      So to take advantage of LTIR you need to be over the cap all the time and not have bonuses (which is why the Leafs actually acquired LTIR contracts this offseason–to maek sure they were always over the cap).

      At least that is my understanding.

    • godot10 says:

      Brodziak has been on LTIR. A player can’t go on LTIR unless they are guaranteed to be on IR for more than 30 days (I think) or until they have been on IR for 30 days. Neal and Russell cannot be put on LTIR yet because their prognosis was/is NOT for more than 30 days.

      If players are schedued to return , you can’t put them on LTIR till they hit 30 days or IR.

  101. Harpers Hair says:

    slopitch:
    Here’s the trade for Hall.

    Neal + 2020 2nd + Samorukov
    for
    Taylor Hall

    If Hall resigns, they get an extra 2021 2nd. Neal has 19 goals this year, Hall 15. Yotes lose the 1st but get a 2nd back. Oilers get out of the Neal contract. Sign Hall for 8m x 6 years and profit.Hall cant make more than Leon. Also, Yotes have to agree to not play Neal the rest of the year so the Oilers get to keep their 2020 3rd.

    The Flames are sitting with enough cap space to take on Hall without sending Arizona an anchor.

    I expect they are waiting for Arizona to wave the white flag.

    • slopitch says:

      Gio is 36 and they traded Dougie Hamilton. Calgary should trade their 2021 1st for Hall. They need D 😀

      The key for Edmonton is finding a scenario that works for them. They need to be right and not overpay. The franchise doesnt have a ton of depth but if they can add the right pieces it will help a ton. Its fair to say another team will add more but what fun is that?!? ha

  102. Bag of Pucks says:

    It occured to me today that scientists would make excellent lawyers. The scientific method trains its users to postulate a hypothesis and then accumulate evidence to prove or disprove that hypothesis.

    Conversely, a trial lawyer is trained to assess the evidence and then formulate a hypothesis that proves or disproves that evidence.

    So, scientists could do their job back assward and nail it as lawyers. They ‘d just have to overcome their aversion to lying their ass off when they know the evidence is clearing indicating a hypothesis that their client is a societal parasite.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Is this another shot at OP….I can never tell with you 🙂 (when it comes to OP)

      • Bag of Pucks says:

        Not at all. I actually thought it was an interesting realization that the two professions take such an opposite approach. The scientific method is something we’ve discussed here frequently.

        That’s not to say that OP won’t take offense. He quite likely will as he has thinner skin than a hemophiliac especially when it comes to areas of expertise he consider as his alone. See Speeds. But I’m not going to censor my observations just because some people are known to be touchy.

        • jp says:

          The observation is pretty interesting. But it could as easily have been made without the last sentence.

          I’m not a lawyer either but I found it offensive.

          • Bag of Pucks says:

            Then you’re offended by the legal profession. This is what criminal defence lawyers do. They are trained to create a moral vacuum so that they can defend people guilty of heinous deeds. I didn’t create that reality. Just pointing out that it would be a very difficult part of the profession for a more altruistic professional to embrace.

  103. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Harpers Hair: The Flames are sitting with enough cap space to take on Hall without sending Arizona an anchor.

    I expect they are waiting for Arizona to wave the white flag.

    Have you received the signed rookie card I sent you?

  104. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It occured to me today that scientists would make excellent lawyers. The scientific method trains its users to postulate a hypothesis and then accumulate evidence to prove or disprove that hypothesis.

    Conversely, a trial lawyer is trained to assess the evidence and then formulate a hypothesis that proves or disproves that evidence.

    So, scientists could do their job back assward and nail it as lawyers. They ‘d just have to overcome their aversion to lying their ass off when they know the evidence is clearing indicating a hypothesis that their client is a societal parasite.

    I am just a simple-minded hockey prodigy, but someone sounds pretty jealous!

    I am sure if you asked politely OriginalPouzar could give you LSAT tips while you spot for him!

  105. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: The Flames are sitting with enough cap space to take on Hall without sending Arizona an anchor.

    I expect they are waiting for Arizona to wave the white flag.

    How is Arizona going to win the division if they trade Hall?

  106. Harpers Hair says:

    Brogan Rafferty: Have you received the signed rookie card I sent you?

    Not yet.

    Mail is very slow here on the Island.

    Maybe Monday.

  107. Bag of Pucks says:

    The Leafs didn’t need Tavares or Marleau and both acquisitions cost them in their subsequent contract negotiations/overpays and essentially pushed a cost effective two way C in Kadri out the door. Nylander contract is atrocious and Marner’s agent made Dubas his bitch. They haven’t gotten appreciably better defensively with Muzzin and Barrie adds. And they paid Babcock a fortune to go away. And they’re on the bubble with a nearly cap maxed payroll.

    Best GM in the league? He’s not even in my Top 5 but then I don’t really do Center of the Universe hype.

    • npanciroli says:

      I agree, I do like what they are doing in the amateur levels – but cap management has been a disaster and Tavares is completely unnecessary for that team.

      • Andy Dufresne says:

        I mean, I’d have signed Tavares…but its kind of like when Chia got some extra cap space trading Eberle for Strome and then didnt use the cap space.

        Sign Tavares and trade Nylander for a top tier Dman.

        The Marleau signing was just a gift to those of us living out here on the edge of the Universe

        • Cassandra says:

          Trade Nylander for Larsson or something like that.

          Nylander is a great player. How many D are worth him? None that anyone would trade.

  108. Bag of Pucks says:

    Brogan Rafferty: I am just a simple-minded hockey prodigy, but someone sounds pretty jealous!

    I am sure if you asked politely OriginalPouzar could give you LSAT tips while you spot for him!

    Being a lawyer would bore the snot out of me, but feel free to run with your unprovable hypothesis. That sounds a tad lawyerly. Maybe you’re the one with aspirations to examine OP’s briefs?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      HOH..OOOo…someone hit a nerve….

      I know Iknow….Ill show myself out.

      I thought Brogan was a sort of meme for attacking perons of Hair.

  109. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks: Winning the Art Ross, James Norris & Conn Smythe is called “The Brogan Rafferty Hattrick.”

    Made all the more impressive by being the first player (probably) to win any of those trophies after spending his 24 year old season in the AHL.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      You jest…but the Calder is still hypothetically possible up until age 26.

      Just like its still hypothetically possible that the Yotes win the Division

      • jp says:

        The Calder wasn’t even listed. But I will concede the Red Garnett Award is hypothetically possible.

  110. leadfarmer says:

    Still shocks me how many people had Arizona winning the Pacific when they didnt have a single top line forward.
    At least they traded for Hall to have one top line forward.
    Kessel in a 3rd liner pp specialist like Neal
    Keller how in the heck did he get that contract. Hes got the skills but he’s what everyone was worried Yamamoto was going to be, A perimeter player

  111. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The Leafs didn’t need Tavares or Marleau and both acquisitions cost them in their subsequent contract negotiations/overpays and essentially pushed a cost effective two way C in Kadri out the door. Nylander contract is atrocious and Marner’s agent made Dubas his bitch. They haven’t gotten appreciably better defensively with Muzzin and Barrie adds. And they paid Babcock a fortune to go away. And they’re on the bubble with a nearly cap maxed payroll.

    Best GM in the league? He’s not even in my Top 5 but then I don’t really do Center of the Universe hype.

    Marleau was signed by Lou.

    Tavares, on the other hand, is one of their best players and is providing good value for the money. In order to argue that it was a bad signing you’d have to demonstrate that the team would be better without him and 11 M dollars. That’s a highly dubious viewpoint.

    I’m assuming you think they should be spending that 11 M on a D. Which one? It isn’t like there are many 11 M D out there providing good value. Indeed, most of the high priced D in the league are not providing value on their contracts. And that is without considering the acquisition cost.

    Since free agents come without an acquisition cost so long as they provide surplus value then by definition they have been good signings.

    Now, this doesn’t consider the opportunity cost for that money. However, using this argument presumes only the best possible move is a good move. That is a an absurd standard.

    Tavares has provided surplus value so far on his contract. The team is better with him than the counterfactual, and he would have positive trade value if he were traded. This is the mark of a good signing.

    Compare this to actual bad signings like the Lucic deal, which did none of those things.

    • pts2pndr says:

      They might have been able to afford a better D. I understand you believe that all that is light emanates from the centre of the egocentric universe,Toronto and that is your right.

  112. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The Leafs didn’t need Tavares or Marleau and both acquisitions cost them in their subsequent contract negotiations/overpays and essentially pushed a cost effective two way C in Kadri out the door. Nylander contract is atrocious and Marner’s agent made Dubas his bitch. They haven’t gotten appreciably better defensively with Muzzin and Barrie adds. And they paid Babcock a fortune to go away. And they’re on the bubble with a nearly cap maxed payroll.

    Best GM in the league? He’s not even in my Top 5 but then I don’t really do Center of the Universe hype.

    I missed the Nylander comment.

    Man you simply have no idea what you are talking about. That is one of the best contracts in the league.

  113. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    Still shocks me how many people had Arizona winning the Pacific when they didnt have a single top line forward.
    At least they traded for Hall to have one top line forward.
    Kessel in a 3rd liner pp specialist like Neal
    Keller how in the heck did he get that contract.Hes got the skills but he’s what everyone was worried Yamamoto was going to be,A perimeter player

    Kessel BECAME a 3rd liner PP specialist. He’s always scored at evens before this year. >2.0 P/60 for each of the past 3 yrs and 8 of 11 since his rookie year.

    Remarkably consistent, high end, even strength production. Until this year.

  114. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Hey LT,

    Between injuries and recall, the Condors forward group is looking threadbare. In rushes today:

    Gambardella – Granlund – Currie
    Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
    Vesey – Esposito – Hebig
    Koules – Starrett – Peluso

    It’s it too early to be concerned about Ostap Safin as a prospect?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Is your concern that he cant crack that roster? Or, that he has to play with THAT roster?

      I dont see how Holland can, in good conscience, trade any first, second or third round picks for the foreseeable future. This roster needs help.

      AND this is an Oilers website; Its never too early to be concerned 🙂

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    I haven’t had a chance to listen to Tippett’s media avail today yet so I’m not sure if Bob got the info from there but he mentioned briefly that Nurse will be on PP1 tonight.

    Not really surprised as they haven’t had a real practice (yesterday was an optional) and I think they likely want to have Bear with some practice time on PP1 before they throw him on the unit.

    A bit disappointed but not surprised.

  116. YKOil says:

    Just off the top of my head, Tavares has cost that team Marleau, a 1st, Kadri and a 3rd (albeit for Kerfoot). It also cost them extra to sign Matthews and then Marner. It also has cost them any chance to build depth on defense.

    None of those things happened in a vacuum. You can’t talk about the damage contracts like Neal’s and Lucic’s cause and then give the Tavares contract a pass.

    The Tavares signing has had a massive impact on that team and that contract has a really long tail. Is Tavares playing well. Yes. Has that contract hurt that team. Without a doubt.

    That said, I also think the Cap staying flat has revealed some flaws in many a teams planning. Hard to outrun your issues with a flat Cap.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog:
    If Oilers could sign Bogosian for min money to be a 7th defender and ship out Russell, that’d be a nice wash. They’re both not good but one is millions less to be not good.

    It’s beautiful watching Leafs Twitter lose their minds over the Bruins trade, Sweeney is a gift giver.

    Russell >>> Bogosian – he’s been quite awful as I understand it.

    With that said, given we are potentially talking about the #7 or even 8 d-man (depending on where Jones and Lagesson progress to in the near term), to get rid of Rusty’s cap hit for next year, sure.

    With that said, Rusty isn’t going to be healthy prior to the trade deadline and I don’t see any team looking to acquire a 3rd pairing d-man with a bloated contract for next year without even taking in to account the concussion issues. He’s a solid leader and veteran and he has some value but that $4M is an anchor.

  118. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m a big Dubas fan.

    I’d have signed Tavares 100% no question. Elite level talent for the price of 2 James Neals!?

    If they’d had better luck in the 3 straight round 1 game 7s, we’d be singing a different tune. I do think they should’ve swung for a different D than Barrie, considering their D’s make up right now.

    Goaltending is sewering them this year. Dubas tries to squeeze out cap room by having a nobody backup goalie. When Andersen’s injured/slumping, they’ve had no one. They trade for Campbell & he’s 3-0-1.

    Marleau a big misstep. He was signed before Dubas had the reigns. Cost them their 1st round pick this year to reverse that. Probably could’ve been stapled to Ceci for a better 2nd pairing D.

  119. Andy Dufresne says:

    Stay Alert People!

    Window closes in 72 Hours!
    .
    .
    .
    Come Monday, It’ll be all right,
    Come Monday, I’ll be holding you tight.
    I spent four lonely days in a drug induced haze
    And I just want a Holland trade for our side.

    I SAID,

    I spent 4 lonely days in a carb induced haze
    and I just want a trade for our side

    .
    #AllYouCanEat
    .
    #ILovesMeSomeBuffet
    .
    #ChocolateWaterfall

    Peace Out Brothers and Sisters of the Copper and Blue!

    Enjoy the game!

  120. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I haven’t had a chance to listen to Tippett’s media avail today yet so I’m not sure if Bob got the info from there but he mentioned briefly that Nurse will be on PP1 tonight.

    Not really surprised as they haven’t had a real practice (yesterday was an optional) and I think they likely want to have Bear with some practice time on PP1 before they throw him on the unit.

    A bit disappointed but not surprised.

    Big game tonight we need points, I’m not expecting it to be a PP fest like the Bruin game, hopefully no let down and Tippett’s rolling the 4 lines effectively tonight.

  121. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I haven’t had a chance to listen to Tippett’s media avail today yet so I’m not sure if Bob got the info from there but he mentioned briefly that Nurse will be on PP1 tonight.

    Not really surprised as they haven’t had a real practice (yesterday was an optional) and I think they likely want to have Bear with some practice time on PP1 before they throw him on the unit.

    A bit disappointed but not surprised.

    Nurse didn’t look good on Wednesday but I’m a bit mystified why folks are so down on him and his PP ability.

    Last year he and Klefbom got similar 5v4 minutes:
    Klefbom 156:22min 8.06 GF/60 (on ice)
    Nurse — 146:49min 8.99 GF/60

    This year Klefbom has gotten basically all the 5v4 minutes and the results have been better:
    Klefbom 213:57min 12.1 GF/60
    Nurse —- 57:37min 4.2 GF/60

    But Klef has been PP1 vs Nurse PP2. With McDavid ON ice:
    Klefbom 194:42min 12.3 GF/60
    Nurse —- 17:36min 10.2 GF/60

    I’m not seeing any reason for the angst.

  122. doctoreye says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The best bet would be to trade Larsson and Pulu to The Jets for Ehlers……or to the Leafs for Johnsson and Kapanen although Johnsson is on IR,but will be back.I still prefer Hall as he would be an instant fix on Connors wing,and would give us two first lines! I also think Hall would sign with this team just to be with his old buddies.

  123. Cassandra says:

    YKOil:
    Just off the top of my head, Tavares has cost that team Marleau, a 1st, Kadri and a 3rd (albeit for Kerfoot).It also cost them extra to sign Matthews and then Marner.It also has cost them any chance to build depth on defense.

    None of those things happened in a vacuum.You can’t talk about the damage contracts like Neal’s and Lucic’s cause and then give the Tavares contract a pass.

    The Tavares signing has had a massive impact on that team and that contract has a really long tail.Is Tavares playing well.Yes.Has that contract hurt that team.Without a doubt.

    That said, I also think the Cap staying flat has revealed some flaws in many a teams planning.Hard to outrun your issues with a flat Cap.

    For someone trying to see the big picture you are really failing to see the big picture.

    Tavares provides value for the money. Marleau does not provide value for the money. Swapping out Marleau for Tavares is a win, not a loss.

    In any case, if you want to play that game Tavares + Kerfoot + Barrie is way better than Kadri + Marleau. So much better that I don’t know how we can have rational conversation about this.

    Now it is true that he had to pay a price in picks for that improvement, but that improvement is massive and the premium in draft picks mostly comes from the Marleau contract which Dubas never would have signed.

    Oiler fans dislike Dubas because they hate the Leafs and are incapable of being rational. This is obvious. Dubas does everything people on this blog have always wanted a general manager to do, + a whole bunch of other things that are good ideas but we didn’t think of, and yet people here think he is a bad GM.

    Either the people who come here have changed and become more like the blob (they have) or they have a massive blindspot regarding the Leafs (they do), or both.

    • npanciroli says:

      I think you might enjoy yourself more on a Leafs blog to be honest.

    • pts2pndr says:

      How can you hate a team that was last relevant in 1967. We as the west are united in dislike from the centralist drivel that comes out of the Toronto media. Just because you advertise you are the best doesn’t make it so. In truth I personally feel only pity for Toronto.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    ArmchairGM,

    I don’t understand the cap situation as is currently reflected on capfriendly right now.

    Why, for the love of Gord, isn’t Brodziak, Russell, Nygard and Neal on LTIR?I know you can do so retroactively and recoup cap space.But not having Brodziak on all season is odd to say the least.We should have ~$9.93MM of cap space available due to LTIR (with Russell, Neal and Brodziak) but CF.com has them at ~$515k of cap space available.

    Any ideas what’s going on?

    Firstly, it was confirmed yesterday that Brodziak has been on LTIR all year – capfriendly is wrong. The organization has confirmed this.

    Secondly, yes, they could put the other 3 on LTIR and have a massive cushion to go over the cap, however, all three of those players are slated to come back in the next 2-3 weeks and that cushion will go away completely.

    It would be temporary cap space that goes away – unuseable.

  125. Cassandra says:

    doctoreye:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The best bet would be to trade Larsson and Pulu to The Jets for Ehlers……or to the Leafs for Johnsson and Kapanen although Johnsson is on IR,but will be back.I still prefer Hall as he would be an instant fix on Connors wing,and would give us two first lines! I also think Hall would sign with this team just to be with his old buddies.

    There is some serious fanboy action in those proposals. Why would the Jets do that trade? They wouldn’t do that trade if you added a first round pick.

    As for the Leafs proposal, the Leafs wouldn’t trade Johnson or Kapanen for Larsson straight up, let alone both of them.

    They are looking for an upgrade on D and Larsson is a 3rd pairing guy on their team and comes at a price they can’t afford. I don’t think they would take him if he was free.

  126. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cody Eakin to WPG.

    They’re loading up to push! Need better defence. Bottom 3 in xGF%.

  127. duct tape and foil says:

    Haula in Carolina is still listed in various places as available. He might help the bottom 6 and I’ve always liked the guy. Unclear what CAR needs, depth scoring, depth defense, better goalie? The Aho connection means they might be interested in JP, but not sure we have what they want to improve now. They’ve got a ton of picks already.

    With BOS getting Kase the list of serious buyers continues to drop and prices seem to be going down. BOS got a pretty good deal as the pick will be very low (almost a 2nd rounder), the prospect seems to be mediocre, and the Backes contract is a negative.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The Flames are sitting with enough cap space to take on Hall without sending Arizona an anchor.

    I expect they are waiting for Arizona to wave the white flag.

    I would love if the flames acquired Hall for their first rounder plus – do it Brad.

    I would love it even more if they signed him for 7 years at $8.5M plus – preferably $9.5M plus

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      FU OP….I had to sign back in again just to give you props on this ^

      I totally get your logic.

      The Topol* in me says..”But on the other hand”….

      It is very important that the OIlers make the playoffs this year. VERY IMPORTANT.

      So maybe let sleeping dogs lie. (coyotes)

      Maybe we are better off with Hall staying in Arizona than risking the possibility that he pushes the Flames past us in the standings.

      On the other hand….. If the Flames wait and then sign Hall in the Summer…that has the net effect of not hurting them as bad.
      .
      #Conflicted
      .
      * Fiddler on the Roof

  129. hunter1909 says:

    Cassandra: Oiler fans dislike Dubas because they hate the Leafs and are incapable of being rational. This is obvious. Dubas does everything people on this blog have always wanted a general manager to do, + a whole bunch of other things that are good ideas but we didn’t think of, and yet people here think he is a bad GM.
    Either the people who come here have changed and become more like the blob (they have) or they have a massive blindspot regarding the Leafs (they do), or both.

    LOL I dont get you but the truth is I’m a bit of a half assed Leafs fan myself and last night all I saw was a soft, weak kneed team that appeared to grind out a win vs the Penguins but to my keen eye I saw another version of the Hall/Eberle Oilers – a team just itching for the playoffs to start when they can proceed to fold like a three dollar tent.

    • Cassandra says:

      Last night was one of the most dominant games of the year for any team.

      The soft and weak team had over 70% of the expected goals and 80% of the scoring chances at even strength.

      If that isn’t good enough then nothing is.

  130. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would love if the flames acquired Hall for their first rounder plus – do it Brad.

    I would love it even more if they signed him for 7 years at $8.5M plus – preferably $9.5M plus

    With his injury history Hall isn’t honestly worth more than 5 million a year to any GM with a decent team and half a brain.

    Leafs are popular today so I’ll reiterate what I saw last night – a top heavy team of floaters. “Modern hockey” at its finest lol

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Not at all. I actually thought it was an interesting realization that the two professions take such an opposite approach.The scientific method is something we’ve discussed here frequently.

    That’s not to say that OP won’t take offense. He quite likely will as he has thinner skin than a hemophiliac especially when it comes to areas of expertise he consider as his alone. See Speeds. But I’m not going to censor my observations just because some people are known to be touchy.

    I don’t take any offence to the original statement – its nonsensical but I take no offence. Of course, I’m not a trial lawyer although I am somewhat of a scientist given I have a Bsc.

    Of course, the personal shot in this follow up reply should be noted. I don’t take offence to it either but find it interesting that a personal shot is taken at me in a conversation that I’m not involved in and on a day I haven’t even corresponded with you.

    I am starting to get quite flattered with the amount of mental resources that you expend on me.

  132. hunter1909 says:

    Last night during the Leafs/Pens game the Leaf’s Pierre Engvell skated toward the end boards in a race to get the puck then as soon as he saw it was going to be a fight to get that puck he casually turned and skated away. Like he wasn’t under any obligation to fight for the puck.

    Leafs = entitlement personified and they have no more chance of winning the cup than Buffalo.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    doctoreye:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The best bet would be to trade Larsson and Pulu to The Jets for Ehlers……or to the Leafs for Johnsson and Kapanen although Johnsson is on IR,but will be back.I still prefer Hall as he would be an instant fix on Connors wing,and would give us two first lines! I also think Hall would sign with this team just to be with his old buddies.

    I don’t want to sign Hall though – well not at the likely contract demands.

    I am not in to signing UFA contracts for player’s declining 30s.

    I mean, if he’ll got 3 years at under $8M, I’d find the room but that’s not going to happen.

  134. OilFire says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It occured to me today that scientists would make excellent lawyers. The scientific method trains its users to postulate a hypothesis and then accumulate evidence to prove or disprove that hypothesis.

    Conversely, a trial lawyer is trained to assess the evidence and then formulate a hypothesis that proves or disproves that evidence.

    So, scientists could do their job back assward and nail it as lawyers. They ‘d just have to overcome their aversion to lying their ass off when they know the evidence is clearing indicating a hypothesis that their client is a societal parasite.

    This isn’t accurate. A scientist assesses the evidence as the first step. Before making the hypothesis. We don’t make the hypothesis in a vacuum.

    Generating new evidence to break/verify the hypothesis is where we differ. I don’t think a lawyer’s clients would like being exposed to 40 million different husbands to test the likelihood of them murdering.

  135. leadfarmer says:

    Francouz signing for what Koskinens contract should have been
    2 years 2 per
    I still don’t get how Chia negotiated that one and included trade protection

  136. Reja says:

    hunter1909: LOL I dont get you but the truth is I’m a bit of a half assed Leafs fan myself and last night all I saw was a soft, weak kneed team that appeared to grind out a win vs the Penguins but to my keen eye I saw another version of the Hall/Eberle Oilers– a team just itching for the playoffs to start when they can proceed to fold like a three dollar tent.

    Huge whiff trading Kadri, I did a fist pump when the deal with the Flames fell through. Still don’t get why Dubas was shopping Kadri well below the market this past off season.

  137. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    HOH..OOOo…someone hit a nerve….

    I know Iknow….Ill show myself out.

    I thought Brogan was a sort of meme for attacking perons of Hair.

    No, Bag of Pucks and I are quite close. Currently, in my free time, when not signing autographs, I am editing his book titled “12 Tips for Rural Alberta Barn Fighting: An Antidote to Respectful Discourse”

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      HA! AAaaaa….Antidote to Respectful Discourse……

      Inner Voice: Wait……I better be careful here….he might turn on me next.

      #WrathofBrogan

  138. duct tape and foil says:

    TOR tried to get a puck moving dman last summer, they just chose the wrong guy in Barrie who has always been defensively suspect. Push him up the batting order and watch him fail. Dubas should have known that. So the trade was fine in theory but pretty much a spectacular fail in practice.

    The Oilers may in fact have the right template. Elite centers (CMD, Drai), top 6 complimentary wingers who fill different roles (RNH, Yamo, Kass), a fast bottom six who are elite PKers (Archie), solid puck moving defense, depth in goal. Need to add to the stable of top 6 complementary wingers, improve speed in the bottom 6, let the young puck movers get more experience, and add a solid younger goalie. It’s moving in the right direction though.

    Looking forward to seeing Old Dutch steadily move out the older slower vets by TC 2021 (Neal, Chaser, Russell, Larsson, Smith) and replace these guys with fast, better players.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      It is unlawful to dislcose the patented Secret Recipe or to reproduce the TM “OldDutch” without the express written consent of the EOEG.

      Please Cease and Desist, from referencing the terms Old Dutch, Secret Recipe, Secret Sauce, Bobby Nicks, Premium Experience, Parity, or Tier 2 Fan, or we will be forced to issue a restarining order.

      Further to this, we are currently in the patent process, and will soon own the color Blue, the color Orange and the metallic hue Copper.

      #PemiumExperience
      #KeepYourHandsOffOurShit

  139. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t take any offence to the original statement – its nonsensical but I take no offence.Of course, I’m not a trial lawyer although I am somewhat of a scientist given I have a Bsc.

    Of course, the personal shot in this follow up reply should be noted.I don’t take offence to it either but find it interesting that a personal shot is taken at me in a conversation that I’m not involved in and on a day I haven’t even corresponded with you.

    I am starting to get quite flattered with the amount of mental resources that you expend on me.

    You “corresponded” with me today by replying to my post on Hall.

    AD asked me an honest question. I’ve given him an honest answer.

    If you don’t like my posts, don’t read or reply to them. I’ve suggested this alternative to you many times and you’re unwilling and/or incapable. So you get what you get.

    If it bothers you, there’s always fake twitter or holiday instagram to consider while you rack up the billables.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    OilFire,

    Does that hold when the scientist is breaking ground in an entirely new area of inquiry where evidence is scant or nonexistant?

  141. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer:
    Francouz signing for what Koskinens contract should have been
    2 years 2 per
    I still don’t get how Chia negotiated that one and included trade protection

    – I know you didn’t mean Smith, but that’s the comp. Koski is being paid as a starter

    – Koski earned starting goaltender money after he beat out Talbot and was fine last year.

    – To be sure, less money and less term would have been nice.

    – It’s one of the mysteries of this organization that they signed that deal, and Bobby goes out of his way to defend it then they fire Chia shortly thereafter

    – Koski ought to be the “starter”. Francouz is clearly the back-up, getting paid back-up money

    – Just hope this recent Smith play continues. The downside to this however, is that his recent improved play encourages Holland to give him a Francouz 2×2 extension +

  142. jeetz says:

    Cassandra:

    Oiler fans dislike Dubas because they hate the Leafs and are incapable of being rational.

    I do not think this is true. I believe nearly everyone can agree that Tavares has lived up to his contract to this point.

    The problem with the Leafs signing Tavares to 11 million isn’t the Tavares contract. Its Having to sign their big 3 as well. They have 40 million tied up in 4 players. That is 40 million for 2/3s of their top 6.

    How are they supposed to have a balanced roster to compete in meaningful times of the season? Any player they develop or trade for who performs well (like a top 1-2 def for example) cannot get a full value contract with the Leafs right now so they have to be traded.

    They have to wait for the salary cap to go up but, Matthews and Nylander only have 4 more years on their contract which means the leaf’s window to build a winner is not very big. The cap space might not grow fast enough. Maybe it will but the timing will be really tight.

    Add to the fact that Dubas has had to give up good assets to move contracts in order create cap space for today spells hard times ahead when they try and build a winning team later.

    I my opinion what he should have done after signing Tavares was trade Nylander or Marner for a king’s ransom and add balance to the defence and restock some assets.

    All this being said, its definitely not a Leafs vs Oilers thing. The Oiler fans are the last fans who should throw shade on anyone. If we have a season for the ages (by our low standards) this year, Oiler fans should simply enjoy it.

  143. Cassandra says:

    OilFire: This isn’t accurate.A scientist assesses the evidence as the first step. Before making the hypothesis. We don’t make the hypothesis in a vacuum.

    Generating new evidence to break/verify the hypothesis is where we differ.I don’t think a lawyer’s clients would like being exposed to 40 million different husbands to test the likelihood of them murdering.

    You may think this is what you are doing but it isn’t.

    It isn’t possible to assess the evidence as a first step so what counts as evidence and what counts as assessment has to occur before evidence can appear as evidence and then be assessed.

    This prior is itself a hypothesis, whether you recognized it as such or not, a hypothesis upon which the evidence depends.

  144. Cassandra says:

    duct tape and foil:
    TOR tried to get a puck moving dman last summer, they just chose the wrong guy in Barrie who has always been defensively suspect. Push him up the batting order and watch him fail. Dubas should have known that. So the trade was fine in theory but pretty much a spectacular fail in practice.

    Has Barrie failed? He’s been an even player, while logging heavy minutes, on a team with struggling goaltending and lots of injuries.

    I’ll note the Leafs, dismal failure that their roster is, have a better goal differential than the Oilers while playing in the more difficult conference.

    It is nonsense that you can’t build a “balanced” team with a top heavy salary structure. You just have to find value, which Dubas has been excellent at.

    It is also nonsense that you can only win with a “balanced” roster. First, there is no such thing. Every team has weaknesses. Second, if there was a team without weaknesses and hence was balanced, they would be the Lightning, which has plenty of expensive talent too.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      No such thing as a balanced roster!?!?

      Yeah right. Next thing youre gonna tell us is theres no Santy Clause.

  145. Cassandra says:

    jeetz: I do not think this is true. I believe nearly everyone can agree that Tavares has lived up to his contract to this point.

    The problem with the Leafs signing Tavares to 11 million isn’t the Tavares contract. Its Having to sign their big 3 as well. They have 40 million tied up in 4 players. That is 40 million for 2/3s of their top 6.

    How are they supposed to have a balanced roster to compete in meaningful times of the season? Any player they develop or trade for who performs well (like a top 1-2 def for example) cannot get a full value contract with the Leafs right now so they have to be traded.

    They have to wait for the salary cap to go up but, Matthews and Nylander only have 4 more years on their contract which means the leaf’s window to build a winner is not very big. The cap space might not grow fast enough. Maybe it will but the timing will be really tight.

    Add to the fact that Dubas has had to give up good assets to move contracts in order create cap space for today spells hard times ahead when they try and build a winning team later.

    I my opinion what he should have done after signing Tavares was trade Nylander or Marnerfor a king’s ransom and add balance to the defence and restock some assets.

    All this being said, its definitely not a Leafs vs Oilers thing. The Oiler fans are the last fans who should throw shade on anyone. If we have a season for the ages (by our low standards) this year, Oiler fans should simply enjoy it.

    Despite your assertion, the Leafs haven’t traded away a single player because they can’t afford them. In the Kadri deal, they took on salary because they added talent rather than subtract talent.

    They did shed salary with Marleau, but that wasn’t caused by the Tavares deal, it was caused by not wanting Marleau anymore because they had better players. And they had better players because they developed them and then paid them (contrary to your assertion).

    The salary cap is a problem for the Leafs. But it is a problem like it is for most good teams. Because they have good players. So complaining about the Tavares contract is like complaining about having too many good players. It doesn’t make any sense.

    The cap problems the Leafs had this year were Marleau and Zaitsev, both of whom were a product of the previous regime.

  146. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp: Nurse didn’t look good on Wednesday but I’m a bit mystified why folks are so down on him and his PP ability.

    Last year he and Klefbom got similar 5v4 minutes:
    Klefbom 156:22min 8.06 GF/60 (on ice)
    Nurse — 146:49min 8.99 GF/60

    This year Klefbom has gotten basically all the 5v4 minutes and the results have been better:
    Klefbom 213:57min 12.1 GF/60
    Nurse —- 57:37min 4.2 GF/60

    But Klef has been PP1 vs Nurse PP2. With McDavid ON ice:
    Klefbom 194:42min 12.3 GF/60
    Nurse —- 17:36min 10.2 GF/60

    I’m not seeing any reason for the angst.

    Got Bear’s PP TOi and GF/60??

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Litke 94:
    How is everyone reading into Holland’s comments yesterday re: Puljujarvi?

    Was he bluffing? Have no teams truly asked about him? Has he truly not shopped him?

    Hard not to wonder if this isn’t a bit of gamesmanship from Kenny to try and force this issue with Puljujarvi to come back next year and play for the Oilers, as no other option may exist….

    I think it’s much ado about nothing.

    Ken was asked if he’s shopping JP.

    He’s not.

    He’s looking for immediate help and discussing with those teams what they need back.

    Apparently not many have included JP in their ask.

    This is not the time for his to shop JP as he is the one who is shopping.

    Most seem to be asking for a 1st + prospect for the higher end players.

    I wonder if Ken offered the first + JP for Coleman?

    He seems to be aiming high (Coleman) or low (Ennis) and I doubt JP factors into many of those discussions.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wonder Llama,

    BALANCE PHOTO: A mythical image promised for years to the Lowetide faithful when the Oilers roster is finally packed with pecks of pickled Pisscutters and Pisanis

    That’s great.

  149. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    OilFire,

    Does that hold when the scientist is breaking ground in an entirely new area of inquiry where evidence is scant or nonexistant?

    The scientific method traces to Francis Bacon in his New Organon.

    1. Rational intuition is the first step.

    2. Inductive reasoning follows.

    3. Empirical experimentation.

    The book celebrates its 400th anniversary this year and the methodology hasn’t changed in that time to my knowledge.

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Before we all dump on Hall, probably best to consider that the Yotes lost Kuemper to injury almost immediately after acquiring Hall, and Taylor has been productive offensively.

    All that said, Chayka paid too much for a rental imo.

    Most of the acknowledged analytics driven teams are on the bubble this season. From my experience, big data can be transformative but most organizations struggle to integrate it operationally. Will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

    Almost every team has an analytics department.

    I saw a list the other day, will try to find it.

    TBY, PIT, COL, WSH, CAR, VGK all have very strong analytics departments.

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Almost every team has an analytics department.

    I saw a list the other day, will try to find it.

    TBY, PIT, COL, WSH, CAR, VGK all have very strong analytics departments.

    Here’s the list as of this summer: https://twitter.com/HockeyGraphs/status/1142898286187220993?s=19

    Not all departments are created equal.

    I know the ones I listed are strong.

    Dellow and Cane just started with NJD so will be a while before it all translates to the ice, same with Vollman in LAK (although LAK won the first draft he was involved in)

    Also,

    I’ve talked hockey with Zac Urback more than a few times, didn’t know he worked for CBJ.

  152. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Then you’re offended by the legal profession. This is what criminal defence lawyers do. They are trained to create a moral vacuum so that they can defend people guilty of heinous deeds. I didn’t create that reality. Just pointing out that it would be a very difficult part of the profession for a more altruistic professional to embrace.

    I have good friends who are criminal defense lawyers and your comments don’t describe them at all. In fact the ones I know personally are among the most principled and altruistic people I know.

    Beyond that defense lawyers, much like scientists or teachers or bankers, any group of people, shouldn’t all be painted with the same brush. Individuals in any group don’t all have the same motivations or moral compass. That’s most of where my offense came from.

    No doubt your characterization is true of some lawyers but criminal law is absolutely not the most lucrative area of legal practice. So it isn’t generally the destination for those interested in personal gain. It’s also the area of law that represents the most marginalized parts of society (even if they’re guilty of a specific crime) who don’t get a lot of breaks in life or in the legal system.

    So in the examples that I know personally your characterization essentially couldn’t be more wrong. Carry on as you like though.

    • RedNed says:

      Hear hear JP.

      Normally wouldn’t chip in on this sort of stuff but thought I maybe could this time. I was a Legal Aid Crim Defence lawyer for 15 years. Met a lot of lawyers in that time. I used to have a low opinion of lawyers. The ones I met in the field though were 90% excessively decent people. Very stressful job. When I left it I’ve done bits of unemployment since. When I’ve written to employers re work, the crim lawyers are almost the only one’s who respond. Even if it is mostly a ‘no’ they take the time with the unemployed. That’s a bar most fail to reach.

  153. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Got Bear’s PP TOi and GF/60??

    Bear 41:07min 5.84 GF/60

    9:15 with McDavid 12.97 GF/60 (2 goals scored)

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s a good link to see some departments.

    I had no idea NYI and PHI had that many people in their analytics department: http://behindthebenches.com/NHL/Analytics.html

  155. YKOil says:

    Cassandra: For someone trying to see the big picture you are really failing to see the big picture.

    Tavares provides value for the money.Marleau does not provide value for the money.Swapping out Marleau for Tavares is a win, not a loss.

    In any case, if you want to play that game Tavares + Kerfoot + Barrie is way better than Kadri + Marleau.So much better that I don’t know how we can have rational conversation about this.

    Now it is true that he had to pay a price in picks for that improvement, but that improvement is massive and the premium in draft picks mostly comes from the Marleau contract which Dubas never would have signed.

    Oiler fans dislike Dubas because they hate the Leafs and are incapable of being rational.This is obvious.Dubas does everything people on this blog have always wanted a general manager to do, + a whole bunch of other things that are good ideas but we didn’t think of, and yet people here think he is a bad GM.

    Either the people who come here have changed and become more like the blob (they have) or they have a massive blindspot regarding the Leafs (they do), or both.

    From NHL.com

    “Patrick Marleau was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes along with a conditional first-round pick and a seventh-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft by the Toronto Maple Leafs for a sixth-round pick in 2020 on Saturday.”

    and

    “Nazem Kadri was traded to the Colorado Avalanche on Monday in a deal that sent Tyson Barrie to the Toronto Maple Leafs. -snip- Colorado also received defenseman Calle Rosen and a third-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. Toronto got forward Alexander Kerfoot and a sixth-round pick in the 2020 draft.”

    So, at a bare minimum, it’s:

    Tavares ($11 million), Kerfoot ($3.5 million), Barrie ($2.75m and UFA) and two 6th round picks
    for
    Marleau ($6.0 million), Kadri ($4.5 million), Rosen ($750k), a 1st, a 3rd and a 7th

    Net, down $6.0 million a year, a 1st and whatever the difference between a 3rd + a 7th less x2 6th’s

    That is the absolute minimum.

  156. hunter1909 says:

    Cassandra: Nylander is a great player. How many D are worth him? None that anyone would trade.

    Nylander is a sophomore, never proven to have won a thing type player that the NHL turns out like clockwork and who many never go on to do anything special.

    Trade for Nylander? I get it. You weren’t around for his Mommy’s anti-Edmonton outbursts. This appears to be your MO…talk out your ass like you’re some kind of big authority. Instead of a brittle, opinionated type who loves to look down on others.

    Not trying to be funny, but how did you end up being an Oilers fan? It’s not like there weren’t 20 better run teams to follow lol

  157. hunter1909 says:

    It appears that managing cap space is a talent of sorts. Leafs GM hasn’t got any more of a clue how to build a winner than MacT did.

  158. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Almost every team has an analytics department.

    I saw a list the other day, will try to find it.

    TBY, PIT, COL, WSH, CAR, VGK all have very strong analytics departments.

    As we well know as Oiler fans, having an analytics department and being analytics led are two different things.

    To qualify as analytics led, I would suggest ownership needs to be driving the cultural adoption of analytics with the owner likely having some core expertise in same and the GM hire reflects a similar level of commitment and expertise. This is the types of clubs I was referring to. AZ, TO, NJ, FLA

    The ones that successfully integrate it should undoubtedly have a competitive advantage over time. But as Dubas has shown, calculating the value of a player and successfully negotiating that value are two seperate skillsets.

  159. OilFire says:

    Cassandra,

    Depends on your theories on how our neural networks actually work. How typically bold and pedantic of you to say your theory on this so conclusively.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: You “corresponded” with me today by replying to my post on Hall.

    AD asked me an honest question. I’ve given him an honest answer.

    If you don’t like my posts, don’t read or reply to them. I’ve suggested this alternative to you many times and you’re unwilling and/or incapable. So you get what you get.

    If it bothers you, there’s always fake twitter or holiday instagram to consider while you rack up the billables.

    What an odd response.

    I’ve got no problem with your posts. I respond to their substance periodically when I feel I have an opinion on the content. I do so without personal attack. I don’t know why I wouldn’t reply to them if they interest me.

    On the other had, you do indeed have a problem with my posts – you have mentioned it many times and have made promises to yourself not to respond to them. Not only can you not keep your promise to yourself but you bring me and my posts in conversations and situations where I have zero involvement.

    I have no problem with you, your posts or your posting style and I do not make comments about you personally.

    You expressly have a problem with me, my posts and my posting style and consistently make comments about me personally.

  161. Cassandra says:

    OilFire:
    Cassandra,

    Depends on your theories on how our neural networks actually work. How typically bold and pedantic of you to say your theory on this so conclusively.

    What I said didn’t have anything to do say with how brains “work,” nor did I provide a theory.

    I provided a comment that you apparently don’t understand. In any case, it is impossible for science to begin with the evidence, as if the evidence exists there as a bare fact, as it were. You may call this is a theory if you like, but if you do I can only say that that word doesn’t mean what you think it means.

  162. Bag of Pucks says:

    jp: I have good friends who are criminal defense lawyers and your comments don’t describe them at all. In fact the ones I know personally are among the most principled and altruistic people I know.

    Beyond that defense lawyers, much like scientists or teachers or bankers, any group of people, shouldn’t all be painted with the same brush. Individuals in any group don’t all have the same motivations or moral compass. That’s most of where my offense came from.

    No doubt your characterization is true of some lawyers but criminal law is absolutely not the most lucrative area of legal practice. So it isn’t generally the destination for those interested in personal gain. It’s also the area of law that represents the most marginalized parts of society (even if they’re guilty of a specific crime) who don’t get a lot of breaks in life or in the legal system.

    So in the examples that I know personally your characterization essentially couldn’t be more wrong. Carry on as you like though.

    If you were to ask 1,000,000 people, would you find it difficult to defend a paedophile or murderer in a trial if you were fairly certain of his guilt, I suspect the vast majority of those polled would find that difficult.

    I have no idea why you find that premise so insulting or controversial, but fill your fucking boots.

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    N64: My preference would be 2nd in the Pacific. For 3rd would prefer Jets or Dys while Turtle cross-checks on the links.

    Let Vegreville play Nashville.

    Ellis just came back and is playing with Josi.

    New coach has simmered down the players.

    Turris is back playing in the top 6 (as long as Bonino is healthy)

    Their biggest leak is special teams and that means less in the playoffs.

    I’d want to avoid them.

    I have them finishing with the 1st wildcard and playing 1st in Pacific.

    VGK vs NSH, let them beat the piss out of each other.

    EDM vs VAN/CGY

    Would love to see that.

  164. OilClog says:

    The Leafs are terrible because I was being forced to watch Wendell fucking Clarke over Billy Ranford stacking the damn pads. Bigger audiences blah blah blah Phillips having a heart attack over the airwaves and being left with a crave for the visual while having to watch Ed fat chin Olczyk.

    Leafs will suck forever and Nylander is not a great player, if that’s true over half the league is great.

  165. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    It would be fab if the Oil could acquire a Trocheck, Kerfoot, Tierney – but I don’t think they can afford those prices and may have to shop in the more affordable aisle for a Grant, Ennis type for bottom 6/center depth. Maybe even a Marleau. What would one of those cost near the deadline? A 4th round pick in 2020 or a 3rd in the 2021??

  166. duct tape and foil says:

    Eakin goes for a bag of chip if WPG misses the playoffs and relativley little (3rd rounder) if they do or sign him. Prices be go’in down as we head to the stretch and the buyers thin out.

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Data is just data. Its what you do with the data that matters.

    Yes.

    This is why you can give the identical data to 25 economists and get 25 different interpretations.

    Also,

    I was never cutting edge.

    Edit: maybe with WoodMoney QoC were cutting edge.

    More than a few of those in NHL analytics department follow PuckIQ on Twitter and those are the public accounts, I’m sure a few burners do too.

  168. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Bag of Pucks: If you were to ask 1,000,000 people, would you find it difficult to defend a paedophile or murderer in a trial if you were fairly certain of his guilt, I suspect the vast majority of those polled would find that difficult.

    I have no idea why you find that premise so insulting or controversial, but fill your fucking boots.

    Sounds like someone has a case of the grumpies!

    I know when I am training to be the greatest NHL defenseman to ever play the game, I make sure to get eight hours of sleep every night!

  169. Harpers Hair says:

    Vegas working on a deal for Mike Hoffman.

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Biggest thing learned while helping develop PuckIQ:

    1) NHL Coaches, as a population, are really good evaluators of talent and try very hard to put players in portions to succeed and shelter their kids.

    2) Using raw results without context leads to bad decisions

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    That is a ludicrous trade for the Ducks.

    Axel Anderson is not a real prospect, so that is nothing.

    The got a very late first round pick for Kase and tacking Backes.That is crazy.Taking Backes, even with the salary retained, isworth a 2nd round pick

    So the Bruins got Kase for almost free, while the Lightning got Coleman for two first round picks.

    When did Don Sweeney get good?

    When he’s on the phone with Bob Murray.

    Man.

  172. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s a good link to see some departments.

    I had no idea NYI and PHI had that many people in their analytics department: http://behindthebenches.com/NHL/Analytics.html

    Judging from the Columbus Conference, I would add NYR to your list.

  173. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks: If you were to ask 1,000,000 people, would you find it difficult to defend a paedophile or murderer in a trial if you were fairly certain of his guilt, I suspect the vast majority of those polled would find that difficult.

    I have no idea why you find that premise so insulting or controversial, but fill your fucking boots.

    And I have no idea why you find the premise that not all lawyers are piece of shit scumbags so insulting or controversial, but likewise.

  174. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: If you were to ask 1,000,000 people, would you find it difficult to defend a paedophile or murderer in a trial if you were fairly certain of his guilt, I suspect the vast majority of those polled would find that difficult.

    I have no idea why you find that premise so insulting or controversial, but fill your fucking boots.

    Hi BoP,

    You’re on the wrong blog again.

    I have fun talking hockey with you.

  175. OilFire says:

    Cassandra,

    If you don’t realize that your postulated explanation of how our human brains form hypotheses is a theory about how that brain functions, well, that tells me quite a bit about your competency level.

    You’re spouting the sort of vague, shape-shifting pseudo-philosophy that impresses only the young. I’m guessing your’e the kind of professor who only deals with undergrads and not grad. students or peers at conferences. It’s usually only in such an absence of peers that someone could get a chest so very puffy based off of such a worn out mechanism of intellectual dishonesty.

  176. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s a good link to see some departments.

    I had no idea NYI and PHI had that many people in their analytics department: http://behindthebenches.com/NHL/Analytics.html

    Boston’s got themselves a good department. I met one of the fellows on the list at the ottawa hockey analytics conference a couple years back. He’s a machine learning/AI specialist. the stuff he was building when I met him seemed like the future at the time. Glad to see he landed in a good spot. Really astute pick-up for that organization

  177. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Biggest thing learned while helping develop PuckIQ:

    1) NHL Coaches, as a population, are really good evaluators of talent and try very hard to put players in portions to succeed and shelter their kids.

    2) Using raw results without context leads to bad decisions

    This made me giggle
    I don’t know how many times I told you this in the last decade

    “If you are disregarding how a coach uses a player you are missing a critical piece of the puzzle unless you think you are smarter than the guys that work with the player every day”
    “You can’t compare bottom of the roster raw data to top of the roster”
    And for that I got called a Neanderthal stats hater
    So many memories

  178. Munny says:

    IMO, the two easiest player to upgrade at the TD are Nygard and Haas.

    Don’t get me wrong, I love both these guys, they have a lot of heart and I’ve been cheering for them all season long. But they are basically replacement level with some upside going forward.

    In the here and now.. and for these playoffs, I think we can do better.

    Replace Nygard with Ennis and Haas with Glendening.

    Run:

    D – R – Y
    Archie – God at 2C – Neal
    Ennis – Sheahan – Kass
    Khaira – Glendening – Chiasser

    There’s three lines that can beat their respective matchups, and then 2Connor as the wildcard 2nd line that will always be a threat.

    Is it going to cost too much to bring two players in?

  179. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: VGK vs NSH, let them beat the piss out of each other.

    EDM vs VAN/CGY

    Would love to see that.

    Agreed. Would prefer to have the Turtle watch from the golf course clubhouse if only for the prospect of getting into round 2 with fewer injuries.

  180. Bag of Pucks says:

    jp: And I have no idea why you find the premise that not all lawyers are piece of shit scumbags so insulting or controversial, but likewise.

    Oh. I see now. You struggle with basic reading comprehension.

    When I define a specific subset (ie trial lawyers having to defend ‘societal parasites’ guilty of heinous crimes), you interpret that as ALL lawyers.

    I understand your disconnect now. Consider my boots filled.

  181. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Unfortunately puckiq is hampered by not distinguishing first half of shits versus elites vs second half of the shift
    Dellow has proven that teams will “shelter” players by giving them on the fly shifts against elites after the elites have played half of their shift when they need to come down the length of the ice and will be looking to change soon after

  182. Bag of Pucks says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Unfortunately puckiq is hampered by not distinguishing first half of shits versus elites vs second half of the shift
    Dellow has proven that teams will “shelter” players by giving them on the fly shifts against elites after the elites have played half of their shift when they need to come down the length of the ice and will be looking to change soon after

    That’s good stuff. Tyler’s a mad scientist. Where did you see that?

  183. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    It was on the Athletic around the time PuckIq was released
    The timing was interesting I thought

  184. Munny says:

    Wonder Llama,

    These iterations keep getting better and better. Llovely work!

  185. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think it’s much ado about nothing.

    Ken was asked if he’s shopping JP.

    He’s not.

    He’s looking for immediate help and discussing with those teams what they need back.

    Apparently not many have included JP in their ask.

    This is not the time for his to shop JP as he is the one who is shopping.

    Most seem to be asking for a 1st + prospect for the higher end players.

    I wonder if Ken offered the first + JP for Coleman?

    He seems to be aiming high (Coleman) or low (Ennis) and I doubt JP factors into many of those discussions.

    I would agree with Litke though that Ken is subtly sending Puli the message that there’s no market for him.

    Kenny’s Patience on this is beautiful. He’s not going to Yakupov this (ie sell him for pennies on the dollar). Ken gets the return he wants or JP stays in exile. Holland plays hardball. Me likey.

  186. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: Marleau was signed by Lou.

    Tavares, on the other hand, is one of their best players and is providing good value for the money. In order to argue that it was a bad signing you’d have to demonstrate that the team would be better without him and 11 M dollars.That’s a highly dubious viewpoint.

    I’m assuming you think they should be spending that 11 M on a D.Which one?It isn’t like there are many 11 M D out there providing good value.Indeed, most of the high priced D in the league are not providing value on their contracts.And that is without considering the acquisition cost.

    Since free agents come without an acquisition cost so long as they provide surplus value then by definition they have been good signings.

    Now, this doesn’t consider the opportunity cost for that money.However, using this argument presumes only the best possible move is a good move.That is a an absurd standard.

    Tavares has provided surplus value so far on his contract.The team is better with him than the counterfactual, and he would have positive trade value if he were traded.This is the mark of a good signing.

    Compare this to actual bad signings like the Lucic deal, which did none of those things.

    Tavares was a bad signing because it set the standard for Mathews and Marner. There’s no way those two players would accept less than Tavares and there’s no way Dubas could even ask for a hometown discount. They did not need another stud. They needed complementary pieces.

  187. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks: Oh. I see now. You struggle with basic reading comprehension.

    When I define a specific subset (ie trial lawyers having to defend ‘societal parasites’ guilty of heinous crimes), you interpret that as ALL lawyers.

    I understand your disconnect now. Consider my boots filled.

    Haha, yeah.

    I think it’s clear we have very different viewpoints on a lot of things and I don’t think either of us is going to gain much from continuing. Feel free to the last word if you like.

  188. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: Tavares was a bad signing because it set the standard for Mathews and Marner. There’s no way those two players would accept less than Tavares and there’s no way Dubas could even ask for a hometown discount. They did not need another stud. They needed complementary pieces.

    Which is exactly my argument when people start calling for Holland to sign Hall for what his market value will require. We don’t need another $8 mil contract. We need a 5 and a 3.

  189. Bag of Pucks says:

    jp: Haha, yeah.

    I think it’s clear we have very different viewpoints on a lot of things and I don’t think either of us is going to gain much from continuing. Feel free to the last word if you like.

    I appreciate your diplomacy. Well played.

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Vegas working on a deal for Mike Hoffman.

    Makes sense – pretty clear the Eakin trade was to open up cap space.

    I’m shocked they got the pick they did for Eakin given his terrible season.

    Great GMing here.

  191. Harpers Hair says:

    Flames and Leafs discussing a Brodie for Barrie trade.
    There are likely more pieces involved.

  192. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I would seriously consider that package for Rakell, I wouldn’t do it for a Hall rental though.

    That is an awfully high price to pay for a guy at peak age who has such low scoring.

  193. Harpers Hair says:

    Just a reminder that TML have $9.8 million in deadline cap space for those calling Dubas an idiot.

    • nelson88 says:

      True. But what does he have left to trade? One of his top 6 wingers perhaps but if you trade kapenan and given their injuries is their top six winger depth really that incredible?

      However; he really has no choice but to boldly go for it because if they don’t make the playoffs after firing the coach and trading pretty much every early round draft pick they have the long knives will be out.

  194. Mr DeBakey says:

    Evan Bouchard was never in play and Philip Broberg is off limits

    In my humble opinion [very humble], there is absolutely no reason why Broberg should be off limits.
    The Oilers have so little organizational depth other than LD, and Broberg is so far away from helping [if ever] that it would be foolish not to move him if the right deal came along.

  195. nelson88 says:

    Oilers making some very intriguing mid to late round draft picks the last few years. In conjunction with their new found slow play development model I like the chances of polishing above average number of diamonds in the rough

    Tomas Mazura as an example is older kid playing U.S prep and putting up big results as should be expected. However; size , position, numbers in similar league at comparable age are pretty good fit for Mark Jankowski. Even committed to same college. Difference being ours came in the 6th round rather than the 1st.😂

  196. jm363561 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t take any offence to the original statement – its nonsensical but I take no offence.Of course, I’m not a trial lawyer although I am somewhat of a scientist given I have a Bsc.

    Of course, the personal shot in this follow up reply should be noted.I don’t take offence to it either but find it interesting that a personal shot is taken at me in a conversation that I’m not involved in and on a day I haven’t even corresponded with you.

    I am starting to get quite flattered with the amount of mental resources that you expend on me.

    =====
    Ope, just gotta say how much I love ya man. The fire, the energy, the updates, all the great technical stuff you share. You’re a force for good man, a real fucking force. But Ope, the hypersensitivity man, the fucking hypersensitivity, ya gotta dial it down. Just find a cloud to sit on man and let all things just gently flow down Life’s river. Lifting all that iron Ope, its pumping up those aggressive juices. You gotta get back to balance. Smoke some good stuff; yoga up; meditate; Serenity now yo, SERENITY FUCKING NOW.

    Bro, I can only apologise, I never post upper case, and I’m real sorry. But your killing my mellow man. Killing it.

  197. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: Tavares was a bad signing because it set the standard for Mathews and Marner. There’s no way those two players would accept less than Tavares and there’s no way Dubas could even ask for a hometown discount. They did not need another stud. They needed complementary pieces.

    Fully agree and I would add he made a critical error negotiating the Nylander, Matthews and Marner contracts separately rather than collectively as Tambellini did with the Austins.

    The Tavares add could’ve worked if…Once Nylander dug in on his contract demands, Dubas would’ve traded him for D. He gets on top of the roster balance issue then and sends the message to Matthews and Marner that they need to play ball to preserve the core and maximize the roster for legit Cup contention.

    Dubas’ moves present as very reactive to me as opposed to proactive with a lot of that reaction driven by his own negotiation failings leading to prohibitive cap constraints.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve got nerves about this game tonight – hopefully the boys don’t think this is an easier game than the last few against “superior teams” – they could easily lose if they don’t bring their lunch buckets.

  199. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve got nerves about this game tonight – hopefully the boys don’t think this is an easier game than the last few against “superior teams” – they could easily lose if they don’t bring their lunch buckets.

    This is one of the last steps to maturity for a team. The consistency of effort that marks the move to contender status. The Oilers haven’t shown that yet so we watch and wait.

  200. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: That is an awfully high price to pay for a guy at peak age who has such low scoring.

    He has 2-way ability and 35-goal upside – and that’s without a McDavid bump. Not to mention 2+ years left on his current deal at just $3.8M. He has much more value than rental Hall.

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