2019-20 Game 71: Jets at Oilers

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers arrive at tonight’s game having put themselves in a very good position. The team still needs some wins, but the pressure to go 10-2-0 belongs to the Arizona Coyotes.

Dave Tippett’s media avail on Monday night detailed the “playing a disconnected game” we’ve seen over the last seven days (or so). Tippett’s teams ordinarily correct after a practice but injuries and fatigue are also factors as we enter tonight’s game. This is the good stuff. Straight ahead.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has found a home as a winger
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers observations: Mikko Koskinen comes through in offensive power outage
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Jonathan Willis: Rookie pros Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov learning in Oilers’ system
  • Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom’s return and usage a key element for Oilers stretch run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How ‘little firecracker’ Josh Archibald went from unknown to vital with Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis over the next 15 games.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ryan McLeod offers the Oilers size and speed. But will he score in the NHL?
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
  • Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years

OILERS AFTER 71 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 27-37-7, 61 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 38-24-9, 85 points; goal differential +21
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 31-35-5, 67 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 32-32-7, 71 points; goal differential -22
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 37-24-9, 83 points; goal differential +7

One of the things we’re going to have to spend time on this summer is the ability of this team to keep putting up points. I’m not one who thought it was obvious the team would make the playoffs after the fast start. In fact, I think the season could have gone sideways around Christmas. But through 70 games, Edmonton has always been able to shorten losing streaks and gather Bettmans while ye may. I give Tippett a lot of that credit, goalies too.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Seventh 10 games: 5-3-2
  • Eighth 10 games: 0-0-0

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 4-2-0, seven points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in March 2017: 3-2-1, seven points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in March 2018: 3-3-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in March 2019: 4-2-0, eight points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in March 2020: 3-1-1, seven points; goal differential +6

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: NAS, DAL, CHI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, VEG, WPG, NYI (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: PHI, WAS, OTT (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: TBY, ANA, COL, SJS, ANA, VEG (Expected: 3-2-1)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-3, 17 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 3-1-1, 7 points in 5 games

I predicted the Oilers would be 2-2-1 entering tonight’s game, so the club is two points ahead of the pace. I had the Jets as a win, Islanders as a loss, but the month has gone the other way and I made those predictions before March began. This game is going to be tougher than I thought it would be at the beginning of the month.

OILERS 2019-20

Connor McDavid and Kailer Yamamoto missed practice yesterday and at this time of year it’s best to assume nothing. I think we’ll see Caleb Jones draw in on the third pairing.

I’ve chopped Arizona off the map this morning, don’t see a clear path to the playoffs for them. If Edmonton goes 6-6-0, the final record would be 43-30-9, 95 points. That would mean Arizona would need to grab 22 points in the final 12 games to pass the Oilers. Unrealistic.

Vancouver would need 18 points in its final 13 games, that’s a tall order but possible (8-3-2). It could happen. Calgary would need 17 points in the final 12 games (8-3-1). Also a steep climb.

Edmonton isn’t home and dry, but if the team can continue to bank points this team should be playoff bound soon. I’d say second place in the Pacific Division is a reasonable guess for final landing.

THE KHAIRA LINE

Early days but the line that runs James Neal-Jujhar Khaira-Alex Chiasson is 3-0 goals in just under 26 minutes. The trio is 10-15 shot share and 31 percent expected goals, so it may not last. That said, three goals in 26 minutes from a secondary line is going to get noticed and at least one more run together.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart a big sports day with some great verbal. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will join us to set up the game against the Winnipeg Jets at 10:20. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk NCAA brackets (selection Sunday just a few days away!) and some NHL trends that involve the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Munny

OriginalPouzar: If you close my gym, I’m going to be pissed.

How unselfish of you.

Reja

Harpers Hair:
NHL has mandated all teams cancel morning skates and team meetings.

It’s done might as well announce individual award winners over Skype this afternoon.

Harpers Hair

NHL has mandated all teams cancel morning skates and team meetings.

Dustylegnd

Kid was at Suncor’s daycare

Harpers Hair

N64: Wow. What fraction of Alberta school attendees do you figure has been tested?

If baseline social behaviour is each person infects 2.5 before being confirmed then theaverage number of people each person is in contact with has to be reduced.

A child in Calgary just confirmed as infected.

His day care’s staff now isolated.

N64

Exactly.

OriginalPouzar

NHL board call at 1 eastern today.

OriginalPouzar

Munny:
If I’m the government, I close all schools tomorrow and re-evaluate in a month.Kids and teachers can lose their July in exchange (if the virus has calmed its tits by then).

Travel closed for a month.Hospital and nursing home visits closed for a month.

I’d close all sporting events, public gatherings and the restaurants andbars.Again re-evaluate in a month.Drive thru and Skip the Dishes would still be allowed.

Encourage all companies with the capability to conduct meetings remotely, and have people work from home wherever possible.

I’d contemplate closing all non-essential retail… anything that’s not grocery, pharmacy, gas station etc. but I don’t think we’re there yet.But the pubs and restaurants (non-drive thru) would be done for sure.

If you close my gym, I’m going to be pissed.

Why are schools being closed if there are no positive cases reported by attendees?

N64

OriginalPouzar: Why are schools being closed if there are no positive cases reported by attendees?

Wow. What fraction of Alberta school attendees do you figure has been tested?

If baseline social behaviour is each person infects 2.5 before being confirmed then the average number of people each person is in contact with has to be reduced.

knighttown

N-64, I just want to thank you for your Covid info including that must read article.

Munny

Mass transit… why are afflicted countries still allowing mass transit?

Ribs

$$$.

Munny

What you are stating is not a matter of dollars but the inability to do simple math. Extending the consequences of a pandemic does not save or make money.

Ribs

40 km/h??? What the heck, Rickibear!! lol

Ribs

New Improved Darkness: Is part of Rogan’s shtick to play the fool on behalf of his audience who are all busy playing cynicism one-upmanship?

Yes.

godot10

Harpers Hair:
I’m guessing we’ll see an August tournament where the Division champions play off for the 2020 Stanley Cup.
Two best of five series and a best of seven final.

This is not likely over by August. I don’t think we will have a hockey season next year.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
Man this Ennis/Drai/Yamamoto line has been dominant in the offensive zone – again, not really sure how that puck stayed out.

Nugent-Hopkins is a finisher. Ennis not so much. Tippett took the tank gun off the tank and replaced it with a pop gun.

Munny

Harpers Hair:
I’m guessing we’ll see an August tournament where the Division champions play off for the 2020 Stanley Cup.
Two best of five series and a best of seven final.

Hopefully this is as accurate as most of your guesses…

Ribs

Thought of you guys when I came across this, hah…

https://physics.aps.org/synopsis-for/10.1103/PhysRevFluids.4.100511

Ribs

Draft is gonna be wild once everything is cancelled.

Munny

People will probably begin stockpiling it shortly.

😉

Ribs

Recommended!

Munny

If I’m the government, I close all schools tomorrow and re-evaluate in a month. Kids and teachers can lose their July in exchange (if the virus has calmed its tits by then).

Travel closed for a month. Hospital and nursing home visits closed for a month.

I’d close all sporting events, public gatherings and the restaurants and bars. Again re-evaluate in a month. Drive thru and Skip the Dishes would still be allowed.

Encourage all companies with the capability to conduct meetings remotely, and have people work from home wherever possible.

I’d contemplate closing all non-essential retail… anything that’s not grocery, pharmacy, gas station etc. but I don’t think we’re there yet. But the pubs and restaurants (non-drive thru) would be done for sure.

Munny

Melvis: As for S&P 500…I’m all in at 666;-)

Which is almost exactly where it bounced during the GFC lol.

RedNed

I only saw the final period of the game. It was great to see the Oilers after a little rest and practice, they look like a hockey team again (yay). Pity they lost, but credit to the Jets for hanging in there and taking their chances.

When the NHL suspends the season what will I do during the probably/hopefully inevitable lockdown/isolation/quarantine period that will eventually be imposed here?

Joy.

wintoon

I am always amazed at the number of times that disaster follows a goalie handling the puck. Granted that some of them handle the puck reasonably well but even these guys create more trouble than they are really worth. How many times do the goalies play it off the glass directly to an opposing winger? How many times do they pass to an opposing player directly? How many times are they simply caught out of position because they leave the net to play the puck? Smith was not good tonight when handling the puck.

Andy Dufresne

N64: Those claims don’t stand scrutiny. At least not to any extent

People who have gotten the new coronavirus and recovered can get it again in the future, health authorities say — the body does not become immune after infection.

On Wednesday, Japanese authorities reported the first confirmed case of reinfection. A tour guide in Osaka first tested positive for the coronavirus in late January, then was discharged from the hospital three weeks ago after showing signs of recovery. But she returned to the hospital after developing a sore throat and chest pain and tested positive for the coronavirus once again.

Zhan Qingyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, warned last month that this could happen.

“For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse,” Zhan said in a briefing on January 31. “The antibody will be generated; however, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long.”

Reinfections among patients in China have been reported as well.

N64
Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: So?

I don’t think the better team won tonight.

That’s nice.

Ice Sage

N64:
I hear that if the Dys call up Booger Rasputin they automatically get upgraded to 2nd in the Pacific.

I heard that he’s been summoned to the CDC who want to use his superhuman DNA to fashion a vaccine…

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Balances off their wins lately when they haven’t been the best team.

So?

I don’t think the better team won tonight.

Dustylegnd

North America is 16 days behind the Euro CV-19 infection curve, infections obviously get worse before they get better and the infection rate is exponential through time

Italy has 60 million people and the oldest population in Western Europe 45.7 years

10,590 active cases 12,462 total cases 1045 recovered 827 deaths

Death rate hard to calculate because denominator can not be correct

We are most likely at least 6 weeks from any sort of resolution

No choice for the NHL they will suspend the season after the NBA lead the way

US has banned all travel from Western Europe as of Friday, yet Canada has not….expect travel from Canada to the US too soon be banned…otherwise Europe travel ban not as effective

2 weeks our cases increase exponentially…..do what you can to stay safe

I am not a Dr or in the medical field…I am over 50, which puts me at a risk similar to an 80 year old suffering from the flu

N64

Dustylegnd: US has banned all travel from Western Europe as of Friday, yet Canada has not….expect travel from Canada to the US too soon be banned…otherwise Europe travel ban not as effective

Good comments but some stuff to unpack carefully. Canada is at least one week earlier on the curve. Alberta alone conducted 1000 tests yesterday more than the CDC did last month. We have 19 local cases none caught here and most imported from California cruises. If you come here from Italy or South Korea or Wuhan you’ll be isolated for 2 weeks. That has bought us as much time as bans . Fully support adding returns from Europe to the 2 week solation policy. Finally if this cuts us off from US travel not a bad thing since most of our local cases are from California which is further down the curve.

Dustylegnd

Thanks for the information, but also we need to acknowledge we have no idea about the world denominator so death rates are hard to nail down, and also impacted by the age of the population.

Trudeau is about to find out who is really in charge and it is not Canada

Logical action is for us to ban Euro travel here, can’t imagine the repercussion of closing our border with the US…obviously land borders would have to stay open to commercial traffic?

N64

Same policy difference as before with Wuhan, South Korea, Italy. Our Isolation vs their bans has not been an issue. The difference is symbolic. US will worry about travellers from NY WA Cali before Canada. I suspect that if NY gets locked down to travel the border will largely close no matter what Canada does Trudeau and Trump are both weak.

Andy Dufresne

Alot of Eurasians, Iranians, Austrailians etc living in Canada….this thing is coming from alot of directions….. Americans

N64

The imported cases are easier. Within a week I can see 2 weeks at home for all returnees to Canada. It’s finding locally transmission without testing everyone with a cough that’s so hard to gear up to.

Melvis

We made the playoffs. We didn’t make the playoffs.

I’m fairly certain the NHL will cancel the rest of the season in light of the NBA decision. Bettman isn’t going to risk looking foolish and irresponsible if an NHL player tests positive.

As for S&P 500…I’m all in at 666;-)

McSorley33

We have two wingers that can’t skate at the NHL level.

I can hear them hack the ice with their skate blades from Winnipeg.

Incredible.

Reja

Harpers Hair:
I’m guessing we’ll see an August tournament where the Division champions play off for the 2020 Stanley Cup.
Two best of five series and a best of seven final.

I heard it’s a eight team playoff two from each division.

N64

I hear that if the Dys call up Booger Rasputin they automatically get upgraded to 2nd in the Pacific.

Scungilli Slushy

N64: Let’s clear this up. This thing does not attack OLD people like we use those words in modern times. At age 40 risks starts to climb rapidly. Healthy 65 years already average risk meaning if it kills 1-4% they die at that rate. Healthy 50 year olds are at as much risk as 80 years would be in flu season

What is your expertise in this?

N64

Iif you’re interested please reply to this and I’ll circle back here tomorrow afternoon to add hard numbers for my comment with references based on the big wuhan study

Reja

Harpers Hair: Balances off their wins lately when they haven’t been the best team.

Yes the budget will balance itself.

Harpers Hair

I’m guessing we’ll see an August tournament where the Division champions play off for the 2020 Stanley Cup.
Two best of five series and a best of seven final.

Oil2Oilers

It was a good season, much better than I expected.

Tippett is a very good coach.
Bear is legit top 4 RHD.
Yamamoto is an NHL player that goes great with Draisaitl.

It would have been nice to test drive AA longer because finding a Winger for McDavid has to be the biggest priority of the summer.

All in all a good year, and not much fear Holland will do something colossally stupid over the summer.

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
I don’t think the better team won tonight.

For all those crybabies whining because we didn’t deserve points in the last couple of games Ha.Ha

Crazy Pedestrian

I blame this loss on smith (gotta blame it on someone)

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
I don’t think the better team won tonight.

Balances off their wins lately when they haven’t been the best team.

Ice Sage

Well that ended with a whimper
Here’s to all Lowetidians surviving the coming scourge, both viral and hockey withdrawal.
Wash hands, cough in sleeve, love the ones you’re with.

Foege Foegele Torpe

The slide begins

StixMalone

Oh well better stop season as the Oil are on a slide anyways….

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think the better team won tonight.

Halfwise

It’s like the last ever AVCO cup, in a way.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Pretty much par for an Oiler game since March began

Ice Sage

Gerta Rauss: This was released about an hour ago – I think the NHL has no choice but to suspend the season

NEW YORK (March 11, 2020) – The National Hockey League is aware of the NBA’s decision tonight to indefinitely suspend its season due to a player testing positive for the coronavirus. The NHL is continuing to consult with medical experts and is evaluating the options. We expect to have a further update tomorrow.

Thanks, it definitely sounds like that what’s their telegraphing

StixMalone

If the season is suspended is the Death march off as well????

Gerta Rauss

Nope-those with 83 points will be crowned champions LoL

N64

83 would win.

No fairness in DEATH MARCHES.

What part of DEATH MARCH don’t you understand?

Nothing like DEATH and MARCH for a DEATH MARCH..

DevilsLettuce

Death March is officially in full swing

Admiral Ackbar

Geesh. Fastforwarding between whistles and Houghson is still bloody irritating. His disiniterest in the Oilers is ever evident.

Ice Sage

N64: Let’s clear this up. This thing does not attack OLD people like we use those words in modern times. At age 40 risks starts to climb rapidly. Healthy 65 years already average risk meaning if it kills 1-4% they die at that rate. Healthy 50 year olds are at as much risk as 80 years would be in flu season

Yes, thanks for clarifying, depends on one’s definition of ‘old’ – an 80 year old is way more likely to have comorbid problems – the data out of Italy suggest an exponential mortality with each decade but that may also be function of their triage… which would be how we manage if it comes to that

N64

Hi. The Wuhan numbers are similiar. That’s based on 50K cases and regression tested with and without complications.

Gerta Rauss

Andy Dufresne: This is almost certainly the last night of the season. Expect NHL to announce right after the last game finishes.

This was released about an hour ago – I think the NHL has no choice but to suspend the season

NEW YORK (March 11, 2020) – The National Hockey League is aware of the NBA’s decision tonight to indefinitely suspend its season due to a player testing positive for the coronavirus. The NHL is continuing to consult with medical experts and is evaluating the options. We expect to have a further update tomorrow.

N64

Ice Sage: When this thing hits the old and/or infirm, it’s a unique and brutal respiratory illness – no way it could have already gone

Let’s clear this up. This thing does not attack OLD people like we use those words in modern times. At age 40 risks starts to climb rapidly. Healthy 65 years already average risk meaning if it kills 1-4% they die at that rate. Healthy 50 year olds are at as much risk as 80 years would be in flu season

OriginalPouzar

Man this Ennis/Drai/Yamamoto line has been dominant in the offensive zone – again, not really sure how that puck stayed out.

Crazy Pedestrian

I think smith is fading. Koskinen’s gonna have to start playing 3 of 4 now.

Oil2Oilers

Sad for Smith, this could well be his last ever game and then NHL. And he’s having a stinker.

OriginalPouzar

Oh, my, goodness – how the eff did that not go in?

What play by the 2nd line and Jones – great skill and vision – Hellybuck with a great save off Jones.

Jets with more puck luck that the scramble before the Jones set up didn’t end up in the net.

striatic

Draisaitl looks tired.

Crazy Pedestrian

He hasn’t got a point in nearly 3 games