Strange Brew

by Lowetide

It was a wonderful game on a weird night, and in the end the result probably doesn’t matter. I don’t know what to expect today in terms of the season, we could see it all washed away and incredibly that sounds like the right thing to do. It’s going to be a difficult spring, most of us have no idea what tomorrow will bring. Be well, hold your loved ones tight, wash your hands. Don’t panic, but be wise and help others if you can. This is one of those moments where we need to trust those who are trained and educated in these things. All the best.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has found a home as a winger
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers observations: Mikko Koskinen comes through in offensive power outage
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Jonathan Willis: Rookie pros Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov learning in Oilers’ system
  • Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom’s return and usage a key element for Oilers stretch run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How ‘little firecracker’ Josh Archibald went from unknown to vital with Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis over the next 15 games.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ryan McLeod offers the Oilers size and speed. But will he score in the NHL?
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
  • Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years

OILERS AFTER 71 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 27-37-7, 61 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 38-24-9, 85 points; goal differential +21
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 31-35-5, 67 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 32-32-7, 71 points; goal differential -22
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 37-25-9, 83 points; goal differential +6

If this is the season’s end, Oilers fans should be proud of this team. It is not balanced, but it is improved and there are more actual NHL players on the roster than a year ago. The two wingers who were acquired at the deadline played well. This was a loss, but a much better performance than we’ve seen in a week or so.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Seventh 10 games: 5-3-2
  • Eighth 10 games: 0-1-0

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 4-2-0, seven points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in March 2017: 3-2-1, seven points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in March 2018: 3-3-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in March 2019: 4-2-0, eight points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in March 2020: 3-2-1, seven points; goal differential +5

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: NAS, DAL, CHI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, VEG, WPG, NYI (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: PHI, WAS, OTT (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: TBY, ANA, COL, SJS, ANA, VEG (Expected: 3-2-1)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-3, 17 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 3-2-1, 7 points in 5 games

I had the Oilers going 3-2-1 in the first six, with a win over the Islanders in the next game. So, the team is right on track with my predictions at this time.

OILERS 2019-20

The Natural Stat Trick numbers didn’t update for the entire game until this morning, so I’m starting this at 7:22. Let’s see if I can get through iit all. It was a fun game, Edmonton had the edge in play and shot share but kept making boners that ended up in the back of Edmonton’s net.

LINE 1 Tyler Ennis-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 15:04, going 18-14 Corsi, 14-9 shots, 1-2 goals and 9-2 HDSC. This line was fire for most of the night, with the wingers showing great chem. Faced the Schiefele line 11:55, going 1-1 goals.

Tyler Ennis scored a goal via some good work from he and Kailer Yamamoto, giving fans an intriguing discussion point for the offseason. Leon Draisaitl made a mistake as last man back on the winning goal and turned over the puck three times. He’s a brilliant player, but single events can have enormous impact while also being single events. Kailer Yamamoto was brilliant, an assist, three shots and three HDSC, he forced the play consistently.

LINE 2 Nuge-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 13:10, going 12-13 Corsi, 10-8 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two shots, one HDSC and was outstanding with three takeaways. One of his major positives is puck theft and interrupting opposition sorties. Connor McDavid’s goal was fanfreakingtastic, and he seemed to have his legs again. Had three shots, one HDSC and a takeaway. Zack Kassian’s little dish perfect for 97’s rocket man drive to the net. He had an assist, three shots, two HDSC, and looked at home with the captain.

LINE 3 James Neal-Jujhar Khaira-Alex Chiasson played 8:21, going 2-6 Corsi, 1-3 shots, no goals and no high danger.

James Neal had a shot on goal and a takeaway, I thought he played well beyond an unfortunate own goal. Jujhar Khaira had a giveaway and didn’t impact the game offensively. Alex Chiasson had a quiet game, but it should be mentioned the veteran has been playing effective hockey recently.

LINE 4 Andreas Athanasiou-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 6:42, going 8-1 Corsi, 6-0 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Andreas Athanasiou played his best game so far to me eye, he was a bull in a china shop and around the puck many times. Had one shot on goal. Riley Sheahan two shots, on HDSC and played well. Josh Archibald played a gritty game including a shot block and much hard work on the wall.

Last night’s loss allows Calgary (and Vancouver) into the conversation but the Oilers remain in a good situation should the season continue at some point. Rachel Nichols quotes Mark Cuban (Dallas Mavericks owner) saying the NBA could play into August this year. I don’t think the NHL will cancel the season right away, but could advance quickly to the playoffs (Michael Parkatti mentioned a 73-game season as an option last night).

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 23:18, going 13-20 Corsi, 9-11 shots, no goals and 3-0 HDSC. Played 12:54 with 97. Pairing faced the Schiefele line 5:21, 1-4 shots and no goals.

Darnell Nurse had an assist, three shots and played much of the game. Ethan Bear had a shot on goal, a giveaway and a takeaway. He was effective passing and engaged in the offensive zone (with some impact) a couple of times.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 16:31, going 12-15 Corsi, 9-8 shots, 2-2 goals and 5-4 HDSC. Pairing faced the Schiefele line 13:04 (making it the shutdown pairing), going 12-7 shots and 2-1 goals. An effective evening.

Oscar Klefbom had four shots, one giveaway and played a strong game without the puck. His skating has improved (injury impacted him) and current issues (upper body) he seems able to overcome. Adam Larsson had a shot, a giveaway but mostly played a solid positional game. The goal against while he was on the ice was goalie error.

PAIRING THREE Caleb Jones and Matt Benning played 9:55, going 14-4 Corsi, 10-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 5-1 HDSC.

Caleb Jones had a shot on goal and two giveaways, Matt Benning two shots and a HDSC. The third pairing gets squeezed for playing time in the big games.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 21 of 24, .875. The first goal went in off James Neal’s stick, no fault there, and the winning goal was on a breakaway and that’s going to happen to a goalie. The second goal was on Smith and his stickhandling ways, miscommunication with Adam Larsson who had no chance at all.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll chronicle a day that will likely have earth shattering news. At 10:20 we’ll talk to Carlan Gay at DAZN about the NBA season suspended, and at 11 Frank Seravalli from TSN will talk about the latest NHL news. I’m sincere in saying I have no idea what that news will be at that time. The news is fluid today. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Munny

Cassandra:
Man, did Munny ever humiliate himself in this thread.

Libertarian fanaticism pretending at critical thought.

I don’t think anyone can top this self-humiliation.

And you manage to embarrass yourself on this board nearly every day you post.

jp

Cassandra:
Man, did Munny ever humiliate himself in this thread.

Libertarian fanaticism pretending at critical thought.

I don’t agree with much of what Munny said, but IMO this is not at all helpful either.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I do not think it was intended to be helpful haha.

jp

Fair. What is the point then?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

A laugh?

jp

Could be. I didn’t really find it funny, but that might be just me. Cassandra?

Cassandra

Man, did Munny ever humiliate himself in this thread.

Libertarian fanaticism pretending at critical thought.

Munny

What Libertarian acknowledges the role government is playing?

Are you sure you’re University educated?

hunter1909

Hunter1909’s Official Death March™ Update:

Due to the current state of the NHL all speculation has zero basis unless a Death March™ Official Announcement says so.

Currently: With NHL season postponed pending 6-8 weeks of probable until hockey returns and McDavid/Draisaitl will be fresh LOL

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Hilarious that people think China is socialist. Truly hilarious.

Munny

Yeah and the West Capitalist, neither is actually true.

Wilde

Munny,

Yes, the person who reacts to a question about one of their many (frequent, weekly if not daily) salutations to their preferred political economy/denigrations of others with both a completely imagined construction of the opposing viewpoint (that I support ‘Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’/the governance of Xi Jinping) /and/ a suggestion that I leave the country – to go to the country which you, again, made up my affection for out of whole cloth.- is the person who values diversity of opinion; is the person who just /hates/ when people build strawmen (against them); who just hates when people do drive-by baits.

A drive-by bait which you’re also… complaining that I stayed for? A drive-to?

Just to stress this really hard: you reacted to a question in one way, that reaction was reacted to in that same way, and now you’re shouting foul to a mirror.

Your paradoxical whimper-belligerence is what was referred to as an overreaction. Not that your initial comment was an overreaction. I think you’d get less frustrated and trigger-happy with accusations of bad faith or fallacy if you spent just a little bit more time on the literal construction of the post. There’s also this:

Munny: Demands like this are perfect for exemplifying the difference between Socialists and Capitalists. Only one of these schools of thought is tolerant of diversity of opinion. Thank you for pointing out which one is intolerant.

How could you possibly have thought that this wasn’t a reference to your ‘intolverance’?

(When you said it, I took it as just a joke, that I should move to China, if not a very a common one that’s played out; but if you have a problem with people telling others to leave the country because of their political beliefs or believe that to be intolerant, well)

As for the little bit of substance that lays beyond accusations of straw man arguments or intolerance for diversity of opinion (I was asking your opinion! With the question!), I think you’re making a substitution: I asked about markets, and you’re now defending “multiple entities working on this pandemic—government, academic, business, and NPO”. If that was your stance initially, you left half out.

I want to put a lid on this because you hit pure spite-omega too quickly for any godforsaken observer to want to read any of this shit (or for anything interesting to be discussed) plus Allan’s probably gonna have words for us so you can have the last reply if you prefer.

Munny

If you have difficulty determining the difference between the imperative tense and the conditional. I can’t help you.

There is a complete difference in tone there. Were you raising the ante on the joke? Most certainly.

And surely you understand that is only going to get the ante raised further. Somewhere between posts you seem to have lost your sense of humour. Perhaps the stakes got too high for you?

At the end of the day, anyone complaining that there are multiple entities working on this from all walks of Life is foolish. You seem to have placed yourself in that camp.

Munny

N64: Nothing like a crisis to unify people. Don’t waste that. ?

Just want to let the man have what he seems to crave. It’s his choice.

I’m guessing since he hasn’t chosen full-blown Socialism, he probably prefers a freer, wealthier society. Which is his right and one that I support, however hypocritical that choice might make his views look.

_______

Edit:

And, if I may, I hypothesize that Covid-19 in the long run will be solved, not because there is a unified approach to thinking about it and solving it, but because there is diversity in the approaches to solving it… diversity in approaches to better testing, diversity in approaches to what type of vaccine may work, etc.

The last thing I want, on the research front, is for one Mandarin to say, “Everybody come at it this one way and only this way. Put all your resources on my bet.”

The information you shared advising that there are already something like 50 independent competing attempts at a vaccine gives me hope that one or more vaccines will be found (relatively) fast, and that the most efficacious vaccine will (should) win out.

And for all of that, and despite the criticism from the attacker of capitalism for my feeling this way, I am grateful.

Munny

Wilde: Definitely not an overreaction.

You’re right, gratitude that there are multiple entities working on this pandemic—government, academic, business, and NPO—with the ability to communicate and share and work together where they feel necessary—is not an over-reaction. Reacting negatively to the gratitude others express for this however, is an over-reaction.

You are the first person in this thread to mention “benevolence”, but I guess you just can’t stop yourself from building men out of straw, huh?

I have no certain idea why Socialist China requested help from Western private enterprise (Roche, Advaite, etc.) to assist them with their crisis, perhaps you should ask them why a Socialist country desired help from Capitalist companies?

I don’t think it is a particularly important issue for the rest of us… we just want the crisis resolved and know that it is going to take hard work and suffering from any entity whether they be government-based or business… and much teamwork between the two.

Wilde: …needs to move out of my country

Demands like this are perfect for exemplifying the difference between Socialists and Capitalists. Only one of these schools of thought is tolerant of diversity of opinion. Thank you for pointing out which one is intolerant.

Wilde

Also, lol @ anyone questioning the notion that this period of global pandemic is going to firstly show the benevolence of ‘business and markets’ needs to move out of my country, to China. Awesome, dude, definitely not flailing and thrashing away in a deep and permanent submergence into senses-stealing ideology. Definitely not an overreaction.

Wilde

Munny:
That we don’t live in the Socialist Paradise of China that arrested the whistle-blowing Doctor for blowing the whistle on the outbreak.That we live in a world of relatively free exchange of ideas and the freedom to give those ideas speech, and that we have a diverse, distributed, group of ad hoc entities working on a solution… as opposed to one central planning agency.

But hey, move to China if that’s your preference.

You referred to a non-market function. That’s why I asked. That wasn’t, and your update isn’t, what a market is. I just thought it was funny, against the backdrop of the current condition of the world economy, that you would grasp for that. Publicly-funded entities are going to be the one to develop this stuff among the other proper responses, despite and not because of any ‘contribution’ that private capital is going to be making.

Any other outcome would necessitate there to be more short-term profit in ensuring human good than in any other course of action. A sequence that would stand alone in history.

If, for example “the first and foremost thing on the minds of everyone at Sanofi is this is a public health emergency and how can we help?”, then they’re ‘helping’ outside of their function as a capitalist firm. Their function as such is useless, they should just step aside; or let their firm be temporarily nationalised and all revenue preventing from converting to profit.

If one wanted to propagandise for capitalism using this opportunity, they should probably focus on the extraordinary level of productive capacity it’s built being immediately available for re-orientation should there need to be a mobilisation.

Essentially, that if capitalism didn’t build the productive forces that sometimes run into/parallel to a distribution problem, you wouldn’t just have the distribution problem. You’d have a production problem.

And, on China, after the dust settles I think Capitalist Utopia USA & Italy might have a worse record on this stuff than them. Even on your civil rights concerns! Can’t wait for Patriot Act Mark X to be bipartisanly passed in the chaos.

Munny

Thank you for the straw men et alii.

Not to mention the baiting drive-by earlier.

I expected nothing less. And certainly nothing more.

Munny

Oh and you should probably tell Roche to pull those clinical trials in China. Socialism has got this.

defmn

unca miltie:
wow, one hour and 34 minutes on hold for WestJet so far and no person to talk to yet. I . feel sorry for their staff, must be a very trying day today.I have to do something with my motorhome down there, so I have to go at some point but will wait this out.thanks for your comments.

I’m in Palm Springs at the moment and for what it is worth I would stay where you are for now. I have no evidence that things are worse here than in Alberta but I doubt they are any better.

unca miltie

wow, one hour and 34 minutes on hold for WestJet so far and no person to talk to yet. I . feel sorry for their staff, must be a very trying day today.
I have to do something with my motorhome down there, so I have to go at some point but will wait this out.thanks for your comments.

Munny

Took my Dad over 3 hours to get through on Monday night.

Wilde

Hi all. I will be refraining from popping tf off in this thread.

Here’s a streamable of the clip of the pre=penalty drawing shift by the Ennis-Draisiatl-Yamamoto line I posted on Twitter, I thought it was notable for being the ur-shift for the Draisiaitl-Yamamoto duo in particular. Especially considering the opposition on the ice (Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler).

https://streamable.com/llzjd

I’ve reluctantly added in the newest additions to my Condors game sheets and have their results. Kuffner and Starrett (Beau; forward) have played 7 and 4 games, respectively, output by game score is 0.50 for Starrett and 0.64 for Kuffner, which are decent marks.

Starrett’s is made up by level shot and goal shares getting a big bump from an overconversion shots/assists to goals/assists, Kuffner’s the same except he actually has a strong 5.00 shot contribution per game.

Kuffner’s the first of a ton of players that Holland’s going to have to fill in on this team, it’s hard to overstate how barren the group is of actual AHL talent. Take my warnings about this possibility from the late summer and add some.

I guess the season might be over soon, the California teams have already been setting no-attendance games as of the last 48 hours. Post-mortems for the new kids’ seasons are probably in order, pretty much every one of them except Samorukov is going to be heavily coloured by the critique about preparedness for promotions and the blatant un-seriousness and incompetence of the player personnel management over the summer.

N64
Wilde

yeah caught that after I posted, oops

Harpers Hair

Likud Herut UK
@LikudUK
1/3 Scientists at the Migal Galilee Research Institute in Israel are about to begin production of a COVID-19 Vaccine, which is then expected to be fast-tracked through the trial and approval process. #Corona #CoronaVirus

Likud Herut UK
@LikudUK
·
Mar 10
Replying to
@LikudUK
2/3 Here’s the science bit : the Vaccine is based on Migal’s Avian Coronavirus Infectious Bronchitis Virus Vaccine (IBV) which the group has been researching and developing for 4 years, funded by Israel’s Ministry of Science & Technology. #Corona #CoronaVirus

Likud Herut UK
@LikudUK
·
Mar 10
3/3 The potential COVID-19 Vaccine was discovered as a by-product of the original Vaccine. Scientists have now made genetic alterations to the original, developing an oral Vaccine specifically for COVID-19. This really is great news. #Corona #CoronaVirus

Munny

Let’s keep in mind that while there is considerable likelihood it will work, it is not a certainty. And we’re probably close to 4 months away from the vaccine proliferating through the global population. It is also unknown how the vaccine would affect the highest risk members of the population.

But a stroke of luck, no doubt.

N64

There’s about 50 success stories like that out there. Customizable platforms like this are so good now that some had candidates designed in softwarethe first day they had the genetic sequence.

One overview:

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-vaccine-hunt-sends-biotech-companies-scrambling-treat-covid-19/

Munny

That’s the great thing about business and markets. Such a diverse group working on this (including universities, think tanks etc), that eventually someone is going to get lucky.

This one seems promising due to the protein component, which is apparently quite unusual in the coronavirus. We wait.

Had no idea there had already been like 50 proclamations of success, so thank you for the heads up. Just had read over this past week that there were many independent sources working on it.

Wilde

The great thing about what now?

Munny

That we don’t live in the Socialist Paradise of China that arrested the whistle-blowing Doctor for blowing the whistle on the outbreak. That we live in a world of relatively free exchange of ideas and the freedom to give those ideas speech, and that we have a diverse, distributed, group of ad hoc entities working on possible solutions… as opposed to one central planning agency.

But hey, move to China if that’s your preference.

N64

Munny: But hey, move to China if that’s your preference

Nothing like a crisis to unify people. Don’t waste that. 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
Ken King passes away in Calgary.

https://edmontonsun.com/news/local-news/ken-king-dies-leaving-a-legacy-of-leadership-business-acumen-and-commitment-to-sport/wcm/ba1619a0-aa88-4b29-b85f-63af6897d60d?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584058909

he has been a friend of my firm over the last few years since we had him speak at a financial services symposium we hold at our office.

It was about a month before the municipal election back in 2017 and we also had Nenshi speak – we ensured they were not in the same room at the same time.

We actually have a yearly event with one of our bank clients where we play hockey against them at the Dome – all set up through Ken.

Ken was a great guy.

v4ance

Seth Abramson@SethAbramson

MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: NPR Source Says Trump Blocked Coronavirus Testing in January to Aid His Reelection Chances By Keeping US Infection Figures Low

NOTE: Please RETWEET this—America needs to know what this monster did. Thousands of future deaths will rightly be laid at his feet.

https://twitter.com/nprfreshair/status/1238186469690429440?s=20

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson

PS4/ Just so, we have no evidence that Azar told Trump coronavirus was a dire national threat in January, only to see Trump wait (inexplicably) until mid-February to form his vile opinion about the political (re-election) utility of artificially low coronavirus infection figures.

PS10/ I don’t think we’ve ever, in our history, had such persuasive evidence that—after being warned of a grave and growing danger to the lives of millions of Americans—a US president decided to ignore and lie about that threat for political gain. There can be no greater scandal.

Munny

Okay, now this post/tweet has nothing to do with the present status of the virus or sports but is sheerly about political posturing.

N64

Agreed. The Tweet is pure politics. The NPR article is mixed but the subtitle is accurate:

“Politico reporter Dan Diamond says infighting at the Department of Health and Human Services and the need to flatter Trump impeded the response to the coronavirus”

The non-flatterers were long gone a year ago:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/trump-officials-coronavirus-127742

unca miltie

N64, you seem well informed. my take on what I see here is that there should be another big jump in cases tomorrow in the US. I have a 10 day trip to Palm springs area and Phoenix starting Saturday. I am really struggling with what to do. This is a trip I have to take just don’t have to take it now.
I have friends in Palm Spring who say all is good and actually extended their stay and others coming home soon.
My life style there is such that my normal interactions would be much less than what I have here at work. A round of golf with friends, and then alone in my motorhome. The Federal government says the risk is low but now Alberta says this.
Effective March 12, all Albertans who are currently outside the country should self-isolate on their return for 14 days, independent of the country they were visiting.
Based on the info from the Federal site, the airline and my friends down there, I decided this morning to go, now I am second guessing that decision.
I was at the hockey game last night and rode the train as well. Likely more exposure in those 4 hours than I would get in the whole 10 days.
As LT says, writing this out is somewhat Cathartic.
My take is I want to go, I think my personal risk is low but I really don’t want the self-isolate if I have no symptoms. In other words, I want what I want and I don’t want to pay the price.

thoughts?

unca miltie

And I am almost 70 years old.

N64

In 2 weeks you’ll know what was in AZ this week. Way more than you suspect today. Probably way more than in AB.

Your personal risk if you get it is more than double a 60 year olds. And they are at the average overall fatality rate. So let’s guess at a 25% chance you would need ICU time if you get the bug. If respirators are all reserved for the 60 year old by the time you want one multiply your risk by a lot more.

Outdoor golf courses sound great, but if your buds interact with anyone within miles I can think of lots of places I’d rather be near than people with money. Software capitals, Biz capitals, Gov capitals, Entertainment capitals. The A-listers and everyone flashing a bit of money. That’s where this thing is moving the fastest.

If you go you will have to iso when you return no matter how you feel. Canadian self iso is just a polite form of quarantine. Neighbour turns you in if you short cut it (guarantee they will with the rapid change in thinking) and you get served with the legal order.

If you can do later do it later. YMMV. Best of luck and whatever you do keep your distance and don’t go with anyone who isn’t equally paranoid. Although the paranoia that may make it way nicer to go another time. Some are coming home early for that reason.

unca miltie

Thank you very much. I hate to miss seeing some of my friends for golf, but living longer would be nicer.

Halfwise

Do you have family that would never forgive you for dying on them unnecessarily?

Might this trip be your last chance to see someone important to you before they die?

Gotta figure your answer falls somewhere between those two bookends.

For most of us, if we get it it will be a bad flu and we’ll get over it. That could happen regardless of what you choose.

unca miltie

Thank you, that’s cute and serious. I actually believe the risk for me is no higher there than here, but the self isolation is not a price I want to pay. I am now on the 49 minute wait to talk to someone at westjet.

N64

Just a second. This morning you pointed to an old quote by Dr. Fauci,

Yesterday he said something very different based on current knowledge:

Asked to “settle” the question of whether the virus is more lethal than the seasonal flu, Pence responded: “It is.” Fauci said on Wednesday that coronavirus is “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”

Worse than that if hospitals are overrun.

v4ance

Miltie, my personal opinion is that it isn’t a good idea. At your age, you’re in one of the highest risk categories.

Travel bans like the ones instituted in China and Italy are right around the corner for North America. If you are okay with possibly being quarantined in the US for up to a month then maybe…. will you have enough money to stay there that long as well?

The other issue is with community transmission, there are more and more people in the population catching the coronavirus without showing symptoms so really there is no “safe” place away from the virus other than Antarctica. A month ago, it would have been safe to travel with only about a 1% chance of meeting a coronvirus carrier. 2 weeks ago it would have been risky. Travelling in the next few days, I can’t give you exact odds but it’s gotta close to 100% odds that one or two people on every flight have the coronavirus even if they don’t have symptoms yet.

Harpers Hair

Scungilli Slushy: National leaders in the US haven’t really been in charge ever. Because of their system.

Obama found out who’s really calling the shots after talking about big ideas. There’s a reason they never happen down there and what Eisenhower feared is true.

Yes.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: You forgot sending the Mullahs in Iran billions in cash.

National leaders in the US haven’t really been in charge ever. Because of their system.

Obama found out who’s really calling the shots after talking about big ideas. There’s a reason they never happen down there and what Eisenhower feared is true.

Harpers Hair

godot10: The ability to mock the leaders of a country, whatever the situation,is the ultimate test of free speech.

Couldn’t agree more.

Harpers Hair

Jeffrey Luscombe
@JeffreyLuscombe
· 2h
Canadian Research team has isolated the COVID-19 virus – Sunnybrook Research Institute https://sunnybrook.ca/research/media/item.asp?c=2&i=2069&f=covid-19-isolated-2020

N64

Just amazing that each country has to do replicate this on their own so that they can work on vaccine and drug studies. Not the first. Not the last. But needed for research in Canada.

godot10

Harpers Hair: It’s no joke.

The ability to mock the leaders of a country, whatever the situation, is the ultimate test of free speech.

Harpers Hair

godot10: Barack Obama competent?

Opioid epidemic.
The destabilization of Northern Africa,
The rise of ISIS and his failed overthrow of Assad and the destabilization of that entire region.
The last two leading to a tsunami of millions of refugees to Europe, destabilizing the European Union, and the polarization of EU politics.
Bailing out Wall Street from the global financial crisis, but not Main Street, leading to the rise of Trump.
Massive expansion of assassination by drone.
Legally entrenching and legitimizing the surveillance state.

You forgot sending the Mullahs in Iran billions in cash.

Halfwise

And the Obamacare website.

duct tape and foil
Harpers Hair

godot10: Warning: A joke in poor taste, but if you cannot make bad jokes when the world as we know it is ending….

#WEdidit

It’s no joke.

godot10

Harpers Hair:
Vassy Kapelos
@VassyKapelos· 11m
BREAKING: Sophie Trudeau has tested positive for Coronavirus

Warning: A joke in poor taste, but if you cannot make bad jokes when the world as we know it is ending….

#WEdidit

OriginalPouzar

Thinking about what the league might do if they are able to continue at some point and move towards a playoffs of some sort and Nugent-Bowman prints this beauty at The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/1673452/2020/03/12/key-questions-surround-oilers-in-wake-of-nhls-coronavirus-suspension/?source=shared-articleThat’s where a portion of paragraph 16.2 of the 2013 collective bargaining agreement between league and players becomes relevant:

The NHLPA has consented to granting the League, either in the 2005-06 NHL Season, or, alternatively, in the 2006-07 NHL Season, the option to institute in any League Year a “Playoff Qualification Round” preliminary to the Playoffs, which will consist of one (1) round involving four (4) Clubs in each Conference, with each series in the round having a maximum of three (3) games, with the winner of each series advancing to the Playoffs … If the League desires to implement a Playoff Qualification Round with respect to future NHL Season(s), it may only do so with the consent of the NHLPA, which shall not be unreasonably withheld.

Leaving aside the references to 2005-06 and 2006-07 which made it into a document signed in 2013, the NHL clearly retains the ability to propose some sort of play-in qualification round. In terms of simplicity, it’s probably easiest to adopt the format already laid out, which would see the wild card teams in each conference play an initial round of no more than three games against the ninth- and tenth-place teams.

godot10

delooper:
The reason for the strong reaction is people are concerned certain populist governments are too incompetent to deal effectively with the challenge. That, and populations in North America and Europe are becoming older and more vulnerable.

If Barack Obama was president of the United States, yes, probably less people would be freaking out.Because he’s competent.Apologies for the politics!

I hope the NHL season continues soon.My wife and I have been watching Breaking Bad.We might need to pick up the pace.

Barack Obama competent?

Opioid epidemic.
The destabilization of Northern Africa,
The rise of ISIS and his failed overthrow of Assad and the destabilization of that entire region.
The last two leading to a tsunami of millions of refugees to Europe, destabilizing the European Union, and the polarization of EU politics.
Bailing out Wall Street from the global financial crisis, but not Main Street, leading to the rise of Trump.
Massive expansion of assassination by drone.
Legally entrenching and legitimizing the surveillance state.

Halfwise

The Obamacare website combined policy and implementation at a memorable level of competence.

duct tape and foil

Tell it to use brother. The black left knows how well Obama played the “lesser evil” game as he sold out everything progressives believed in. The following is from Black Agenda Report, a black left publication that includes Ajama Baraka (Green Party VP candidate in 2016) as one of its editors.

Why Barack Obama is the More Effective Evil

https://www.blackagendareport.com/content/why-barack-obama-more-effective-evil

Harpers Hair

Vassy Kapelos
@VassyKapelos
· 11m
BREAKING: Sophie Trudeau has tested positive for Coronavirus

N64

Case in point. Sending wife of PM to UK a few weeks ago pays out now.

Irony of ironies. UK is not in the US ban.

Whereas as of today BC and Alberta both require 2 weeks isolation returning from any country.

If Trudeau was serious about his job… Meanwhile The Donald has been exposed but doesn’t want to be tested.

Phoning it in is not good enough. Deputy PM needs to do most of the PMs work.

Munny

Actually only Italy is my understanding. Supposed to self-monitor for 2 weeks and avoid large public gatherings returning from anywhere else (including Iran and China), but no isolation.

Munny

I thought Trump was allegedly a germaphobe?

N64

delooper: certain populist governments are too incompetent

Trump officials did sound the coronavirus alarm. They just don’t work there anymore
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/trump-officials-coronavirus-127742

With a little bit of luck maybe the best of them will finally be handed the mess to sort out:

“I watched Scott Gottlieb today, who was with us, and I respect him a lot. I like him and respect him. He was talking about how — in some instances, in California we have too many [coronavirus tests], and in other cases, distribution can be a little different for different areas,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. “We’ve done a good job on testing. It’s very interesting. You might ask Scott about it, actually.”

LOL. Of course Gottlieb said the next problem is building capacity quicker for hot spots that aren’t catching up. But interesting that Gottlieb is still personna grata. Super polite, but relentless at calling things as they are and on leveraging instead of funneling.

BONE207

Hey Nit…

Of all the articles, news programs or sources out there, your explanations & references have been by far the most informative. Thanks for the work in digging it all up & sharing your observations. ?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Agreed. Thank you N64!

N64

Hey its an advanced stats site. No one should rely on my take, but there’s great stuff out there.

This sentence in that medium post really caught my eye:

The orange bars [by diagnosis] show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones [by onset] what was really happening
comment image

You look at a few of those and you see that every decision gov’ts make has to be made 2 weeks in advance of the peak being avoided. Seattle’s first local transmission was found around time of death, so 3 weeks after something started to happen they are finding that out and their actions aren’t going to really show up for a few more weeks. Local resources were pooled quickly to clue in the nation.

flyfish1168

Good thing our team was already in town and doesn’t have to travel.

delooper

The reason for the strong reaction is people are concerned certain populist governments are too incompetent to deal effectively with the challenge. That, and populations in North America and Europe are becoming older and more vulnerable.

If Barack Obama was president of the United States, yes, probably less people would be freaking out. Because he’s competent. Apologies for the politics!

I hope the NHL season continues soon. My wife and I have been watching Breaking Bad. We might need to pick up the pace.

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909: Thank you for the first information that I actually more or less believe on sight. In a world of fake news that’s nothing to sneeze at.

Ya, I trust this guy – have “known him” for years online and provided a couple great recommendations and pieces of intel when the wife and I were in Honk Kong a few years back.

Don’t imagine he’s being anything less than 100% truthful.

N64

Halfwise: How good or bad is the pandemic? Let’s ask Dr. Fauci:

Pointed out earlier that the Fauci quote pre-dated actual data.

Today:

Asked to “settle” the question of whether the virus is more lethal than the seasonal flu, Pence responded: “It is.” Fauci said on Wednesday that coronavirus is “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”

jp: So you figure the Democrats shut down a bunch of Asian and European countries too?

And now Pence and Fauci have been tricked.

Halfwise

I have no problem with people learning new facts and changing their minds as a result. That’s what we should expect from experts. Ideologues, by contrast, just bang the same drum regardless.

I do have a big problem with double standards in reporting when the underlying examples are similar. And I have no patience for outrage based on mind reading as to someone’s motivations.

Who tricked Pence and Fauci? How? Why?

jp

Rondo:
“I went back and looked at the stats and I was stunned. Are you ready for this? The swine flu outbreak in this country in 2009 and 2010, 60 million Americans were infected. Do you remember that? Sixty million were infected. Dr. Siegel, one of the Fox doctors was on TV explaining this last night. He was not my primary source for it, but he ended up confirming it. Sixty million people were infected.

. . . Nobody’s immune from what’s happening here. I mean, you go back and you look at these swine flu numbers and you ask, “What was different? (chuckles) What was different was we had a Democrat in the White House and so the media didn’t want to be critical of the government.

So you figure the Democrats shut down a bunch of Asian and European countries too?

hunter1909

leadfarmer: We all of course accounted for the plague in our predictions

Since you’re in the medical world I assume you had insider info re the upcoming plague.

hunter1909

N64:
If the reason does not resume we have a divided Death March title based on 83 points and 24 goals for still hockeying Jesse’.

If the Death March is as unfair as Death Marches are the break winner at 83 points:

Winner: JORDAN 31 (+7)
Runner Ups: JTBLACK & SIERRA 16 (-8)

If we’re going to be all unreasonable and fair about this the winners based on pts% selected 96 pts:

Winners: MUSHEDPEAS & MUSTARD TIGER 22 (-2)

In one corner stands the true champ(s). In the other the asterisk champ(s).

But which is which? Entrant(s) that correctly reckoned the pts%. Or contestant(s) that accounted for the Death and the March in Death March?

Do we have a split title Death March, ladies and gentlemen?

LOL not quite.

Hunter1909’s Death March™ has still got to gather data before anything close to a Death March™ winner is announced. Also, we hope that every one of the winners gets more than the mere satisfaction of winning a season which effectively could have been cancelled by an asteroid, or aliens.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar:
An acquintance of mine lives in Hong Kong and here is his “intel”:

A little perspective from where I live in Hong Kong. We are about 6 weeks ahead of the North America curve.
We went through the following stages. First the masks and sanitizer disappeared. Then the flight cancellations. The the government and schools shut. Then the crazed buying of toilet paper and rice and other essentials. Private sector asked to prepare resilience plans ie work from home, split staff etc. then slowly over the last 3 weeks things have returned to pretty much normal with exception of schools still being closed.

There are still a few cases a day but mostly imported at this stage.

Thank you for the first information that I actually more or less believe on sight. In a world of fake news that’s nothing to sneeze at.

TheGreatBigMac

So we’re through the worst of it in Seattle then. Everyone is working from home, all schools closed as of today for the next six weeks. I was at Costco this morning and there was no TP and there was this oddly out of place palette of rice double parked in the middle of an Isle that was almost all swiped. All that’s left is the 3 weeks of recovery + another 3 weeks of kids still home.

Hopefully it goes as in Hong Kong then, the stock market doesn’t tank another 20% and just maybe we can call game on for the playoffs.

leadfarmer

hunter1909:
HUNTER1909-2020 OFFICIAL DEATH MARCH™ EMERGENCY CANCELLED SEASON UPDATE:

As things stand the following players have a claim to winning the Death March™ all with 83 point predictions:

BUCK YOAKAM
LEADFARMER
STEPHEN SHEPS
GERTA RAUSS
JTBLACK
ALPINE
VICTORIA OIL
SIERRA
MCSORLEY33
DUSTYLEGEND
SLOCANOIL
GERTA RAUSS
JUSTTHESTATSMAN
JORDAN
FACTOTUM
BORNINAGRETZKYJERSEY

We all of course accounted for the plague in our predictions

N64

If the season does not resume we have a divided Death March title based on 83 points and 24 goals for still hockeying Jesse’.

If the Death March is as unfair as Death Marches are the break winner at 83 points:

Winner: JORDAN 31 (+7)
Runner Ups: JTBLACK & SIERRA 16 (-8)

If we’re going to be all unreasonable and fair about this the winners based on pts% selected 96 pts:

Winners: MUSHEDPEAS & MUSTARD TIGER 22 (-2)

In one corner stands the true champ(s). In the other the asterisk champ(s).

But which is which? Entrant(s) that correctly reckoned the pts%. Or contestant(s) that accounted for the Death and the March in Death March?

Do we have a split title Death March, ladies and gentlemen?

BONE207

My 79 point prediction looks pretty good too…?

delooper

wolf8888:
Why do you think that makes a difference Delooper?

Viruses die quickly in UV light. Air conditioners exchange indoor air with outdoor air. I don’t know if the refrigeration cycle would affect the virus at all, but the air exchange is a help.

My impression is the flu cycle that we get into in the northern hemisphere is largely because we have large groups of people huddled indoors, sharing the same air, touching common surfaces.

Singapore has the same problem year-round, except for the massive air conditioning.

wolf8888

The fresh air definitely should make a difference. The recycled air is one reason airplanes are so bad for spreading illness.

N64

N64:
Alberta Health recommending no out of country travel for anyone over 65. Warnings changing daily. 2 weeks 100% isolation on return from any country can’t be far away.

Update:

2 week Isolation for everyone returning from out of country healthy or otherwise.

Alberta Government
@YourAlberta
We’re taking aggressive new public health actions to limit #COVID19 spread. Effective immediately:
• Albertans should avoid travel outside Canada
• All int’l travellers must self-isolate for 14 days, even if well
• Large events should be cancelled

Reja

godot10:
Global central banks balance sheets ballooned from $4 trillion to $20 trillion since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2007, “papering” over the crisis, and bailing out the 1% and the banks.QE for the plutocrats.$15 trillion of QE, ZIRP, NIRP.

This time it will take an order of magntitude more of newly conjured money….$100 trillion to $1 quadrillion, and maybe a small portion of that will be QE for the people this time.Most of it will go to bail out the banks and the 1%’ers again.

I know this isn’t the golf course but knowledgeable and smart people please give your take on the stock market when will it level out? When to jump in? What to buy? Of course this is all off the record. There will be a vast amount of money being moved from one hand to another. I’m being selfish but I’m worried like many others that their pension plans will take a huge hit not seen since the Twenties.

duct tape and foil

Advice is difficult as we have been in uncharted waters since 2008 and especially since late 2012 when QE3 was announced. All of my indicators went bonkers in January 2013 when crap went to the moon and value was trashed. The vast amounts or money fed directly and indirectly into the markets by central banks has warped any sense of value. The Japanese govt owns almost all of the ETF on the Nikkei for Peteʻs sake, and history seems to indicate we will go down that path as well. We have gone from fiscal adventurism prior to the great recession to monetary adventurism in subsequent years. If you accept that, then fiat currencies will be at risk from printing trillions every day. They will not, however, let the markets engage in price discovery. That would destroy almost every pension plan in the United States which are all hugely over-weight in stocks as a result of interest rates being suppressed and return on investment in fixed assets being so poor. Itʻs madness and it will not end well.

At this point Iʻd stay liquid and in hard assets that have little or no counter-party risk. Thatʻs all the advice Iʻve got.

giddy

duct tape and foil:
Itʻs not the virus you need to worry about folks, itʻs the economy. This virus event would be a relatively large speed bump in life of a healthy economy. Most developed nations unfortunately are the equivalent of an 80 year old with emphysema running around the block hopped up on crystal meth. Susceptible to negative outcomes is an understatement. The US Fed has already blown their wad today and more monetary adventurism (negative interest rates and the Fed outright buying their own debt and stocks) will destroy full faith and credit. It wonʻt help and the correction that was avoided by all means possible in 2008 will happen now and it will be at least twice as deep. The culprits will get to blame the virus instead of their own greed and irresponsibility.

Godʻs speed (which ever flavor you respect) to all and see you when we can enjoy our distractions again at some point in the future.

Reminds me of when I worked in IT for a period. There was a real smart guy I worked alongside, he was a senior project manager in the risk & privacy area–but he had started as a dev, done tons of programming, BA work, project management of IT projects from software creation to web development to database work to beyond.

One day we were talking about the impending “Internet of Things” revolution, and I was saying I’m pretty excited–lots of cool things coming in.

He retorted that he has almost no technology in his house beyond a new MacBook and a cable TV. Why? Because he figures all the world’s technological systems are basically held together by chewing gum and dental floss–which is just the inevitable when you have millions of programmers spitting their own code and ideas of how things should function together with often zero explanation left for anyone who has to work on it or figure it out later.

delooper

N64:
Could be a factor in Singapore. Clearly they’ve got the best practices across the board, but their weather may nave assisted.

But we really don’t know. The common cold is a bunch of different things. But one common common cold is in the coronavirus family and apparently it is not stopped as much by weather as the flu is.

We should hope for some benefit, but not count on it.The Toronto SARS outbreak was warm spring weather. What knocked it back was likely taking advantage of it doing most spread after patients were ill.

In Singapore, I imagine the difference is that indoors everyone is using air conditioners.

wolf8888

Why do you think that makes a difference Delooper?

delooper

First time in a generation the OIlers are looking like a playoff team, and they cancel the season!

I smell a conspiracy!

N64

N64:
Alberta Health recommending no out of country travel for anyone over 65. Warnings changing daily. 2 weeks 100% isolation on return from any country can’t be far away.

Update: Alberta Health Recommending no out of country travel at any age.

“Four new cases of COVID-19 have now been confirmed in Alberta, bringing the total number in the province to 23, all travel-related”.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Harpers Hair:
Chilling.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

This is the most troubling part of the outbreak. Are the numbers coming out of China and Iran remotely accurate?

Shit is going to be bad when sub-Saharan Africa and South America get hit.

N64

Iran. No.
China. Clearly huge drop in visible places like Hong Kong and Beijing (even if overstated semi-normal life seems to be returning)

Harpers Hair

Andrea R MD
@AndreaR9Md
·
21h
Update. The Cleveland Clinic has developed a COVID 19 test that gives results in 8 hours as opposed to the 2-3 days it takes for the other tests.
They developed the test in NINE days, I repeat nine. Scientists worked 24/7 once the CDC gave them the okay on 3/2.

N64

Similar stories in Seattle and many other major university hospital systems. 2016-19 FDA head was publicly begging to let this creativity loose in late January. That’s a guy who’s still on speed dial in the White House, but again complacency.

Here’s a list of all of the testing capacity uncorked the last week or so including 2,500 at UW in Seattle.

https://twitter.com/COVID2019tests/status/1238211297260552192/photo/1

Currently 22,350 per day of raw capacity but still not fully leveraged. Less daily testing per day per capita or suspect case than Canada. But the US easily should have been ahead not behind. Heck when they have more production than they need we could use anything that goes faster.

Today Dr. Fauci Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases:

“The idea of anybody getting it easily, the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be? Yes. But we’re not. That is a failing. It is a failing. Let’s admit it.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-top-expert-fauci-says-us-failing-in-testing-kits-2020-3

oilersfan

N64,

Thanks for all your info. Wish i had listened and sold my stocks a month ago.

Question about the weather…as you llikely know, when it is above 20 degrees celsius the sars and h1n1 virus lived 20 times less than it did if the temperature is below 6 celsius, and in both cases died in the summer after the outbreak. I have read a few health experts say we dont know for sure if that will be the case now for covid 19., but isnt it a good possibility? It is interesting to note that MExico only has 12 cases and zero deaths despite having 150 million people. it seems to be fairly rare in other hot places as well. I checked IRan, it has been below 20 the last few weeks. thanks in advance

Ribs
N64

Could be a factor in Singapore. Clearly they’ve got the best practices across the board, but their weather may nave assisted.

But we really don’t know. The common cold is a bunch of different things. But one common common cold is in the coronavirus family and apparently it is not stopped as much by weather as the flu is.

We should hope for some benefit, but not count on it. The Toronto SARS outbreak was warm spring weather. What knocked it back was likely taking advantage of it doing most spread after patients were ill.

godot10

Lots of travel cases coming back from Egypt. How much testing is Egypt doing? I don’t think it is cold in Egypt.