Feels Like Home To Me

by Lowetide

I started my first radio job (Wetaskiwin) at the same time as a bunch of talented young people, and found the same level of quality in my second job in Red Deer. Ron Clark is one of the most talented people I’ve ever worked with, I worked with Sheila Gardner for about one month because she was so talented K97 hired her purely on an aircheck that would blow your mind. Valerie Runyon was an outstanding writer, Colleen Buxton had a wicked sense of humor, Murray Fuhrer was a brilliant writer too. Ray Stout was a crusty and hilarious newsman, a mentor who taught me a lot in short space of time.

All of them had more natural talent than me, and I’m not being humble, it’s a fact. I had to work very hard, going over airchecks and finding what worked for me. You find out a lot about yourself by overcoming challenges in your career. Mine included a high pitched voice, nasal voice (talking through my nose instead of diaphragm), talking too fast and not paying attention.

I had so many things to work on it never occurred to me that quitting was an option. Maybe that’s the key. I was looking for a place to call home and found it in Edmonton. Maybe Andreas Athanasiou has the same experience.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

AA

I wrote about Athanasiou earlier in May for The Athletic, one of the main discoveries in looking at his DRW career pertained to the quality of linemates. During the period 2017-20 (up to the trade) Athanasiou was not playing with top flight linemates.

In his 30-goal season (2018-19), AA scored 21 times five on five. His most common linemates in the discipline were Luke Glendening (eight Athanasiou goals in 324 minutes), Frans Nielsen (seven goals in 294 minutes), Darren Helm (four goals in 198 minutes), Thomas Vanek (three goals in 198 minutes) and Tyler Bertuzzi (three goals in 193 minutes). Detroit’s best forwards, aside from AA, were Gustav Nyqvist (four goals in 160 minutes), Anthony Mantha (one goal in 137 minutes) and Dylan Larkin (one goal in 27 minutes).

I think it’s reasonable to suggest Athanasiou could flourish with either McDavid or Draisaitl as his pivot. There are other reasons, covered in that article for The Athletic.

It’s important for Athanasiou, and for Ken Holland, to see the fast train winger in more games than we’ve seen so far. A contract must be signed in the offseason, and the contract length is a big damned deal. Sometimes trades for second rounders result in a long and prosperous relationship, other times it’s someone passing through. These games to come matter.

PACIFIC DIVISION ROOKIES

I was asked via email yesterday why I don’t do the age adjustments for NHLE. As a for instance, Bouchard’s age adjusted NHLE would be somewhere around 38 points if I can still figure it out correctly. I’ve never seen a reason to run the age adjustment, since it’s already clear (age) that Bouchard has a more promising trajectory than blog hero Brogan (trumpet floursh) Rafferty.

Both men have great promise, neither man should be mocked or marginalized. Rafferty’s time is now, he has to make the NHL and establish himself. Hell, he’s two years older than Cooper Marody, it’s go time. Bouchard’s point totals could go 15 (age 20), 27 (age 21), 34 age (23) and then 38 (24) and he would be a more valuable asset than Rafferty every step of the way.

Would Bouchard be a better player than Rafferty in 2020-21? Ah, now that is a question worth discussing. Adjusting for age re: NHLE has no real use from my point of view.

I wrote about this group on May 16, for me the most interesting names are RD Connor Corcoran, Luke Henman, Milos Roman, Declan Chisholm. Some of these names will be signed this week, I’ll pick Corcoran as the best available.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The NHL memo on moving to Phase 2 is out, we’ll discuss it at length today on the Lowdown beginning at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will talk about the Woods-Mickelson-Brady-Manning charity gold event and golf’s return in a couple of weeks. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will chat NHL’s return, expectations of the Oilers versus Blackhawks and will the CFL have a season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soup at 10!

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Harpers Hair

Radio Days:

Sheila Gardner worked for me at CFRN Radio back in the day.

A very talented and hardworking individual…a natural and also a great person to be around.

She moved to Victoria after her CFRN stint and is now James Gardner.

https://www.timescolonist.com/monitor-a-journey-from-sheila-to-james-1.105042

OriginalPouzar

As per LeBrun, NHL sending out their 29 phase 2 protocol.

Expected to start in early June but not official date and its subject to change.

Player will be allowed to use their team facilities with up to 6 players on ice. Other safety protocols to be followed – no coaches.

No player forced to participate and teams cannot force players to come back to home cities to start local quarantines and ensure they are ready for phase 2.

Players coming from over seas will need to do 14 day quarantine before they join.

Players tested 2 days before they start at facilities and then there will be scheduled testing after – they will ensure they aren’t excessively testing asymptomatic persons ahead of public.

OriginalPouzar

I am baffled by the opinion that Holland is going to move on from AA and/or that it was a failed acquisition.

Sure, if there is a deal out there for great value, AA isn’t untradable but I don’t think the GM is actively looking to trade the player and I would hesitate to put too much stock in to a short 9 game sample size (that included a vast change in team style and team energy and included injury).

I was hestiant prior and at the time of trade to think that AA would mesh with McDavid – the styles didn’t/don’t seem to match for me but, then again, you never know and its only been a few games. The talent and potential is worth a “real shot”.

At the very least, I’m encouraged by AA’s history of scoring goals at 5 on 5 and doing so with non elite linemates – he could fit very well in the middle six in Edmoton.

Contract: Seems like one year around his QO makes sense uness something big happens (either way) in the re-start. One year still leave a year of team control.

A 2-3 week re-start training camp could/should be huge for this player.

jp

Wonderful intro and analogy LT.

Those who frequent this blog are happy you never thought to consider another direction.

Harpers Hair

Twitter chatter this morning that the draft lottery will be held June 26.

That would mean a 7 team lottery.

Darth Tu

On AA – I still feel like we’re giving him a 2 year contract regardless of whether there’s more hockey this season or not (it seems like there will be). I get the impression that for this blog’s readership at least, we all agree that he hasn’t played himself out of a job already. Sure there are things he can work on, but everyone has things they can work on and the potential is there for him to really click on one of the top two lines.

To my eye he showed flashes in the first game prior to the injury, and then again in the final game before the stoppage in play.

buck yoakam

Love me some Randy Newman…maybe AA is the new petr klima!….

PennersPancakes

buck yoakam,

118 goals in 258 games as an Oiler, forgot how well Klima was at putting the puck in the net.

ArmchairGM

Laine on quarantining in a hotel if necessary during the upcoming playoffs:

“I’ll have to bring my computer so that I can play some video games.”

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2020/05/22/jets-laine-on-post-quarantine-hockey-my-game-is-probably-gonna-look-terrible.html

Who knew?

XD

stephen sheps

OriginalPouzar: I am baffled by the opinion that Holland is going to move on from AA and/or that it was a failed acquisition.

That’s an opinion? I haven’t really seen that espoused on here or really anywhere else.

AA played 9 games as an Oiler, coming over from one of the worst rosters in the league, dealt with adjusting to the pace of a team in the thick of a playoff race and an entirely new system. He was having a down year and the Staples piece in the EJ today isn’t exactly a pretty picture, but I don’t think anyone is actively suggesting that they cut their losses with this player. And even if they do, it was a swing for the fences kind of trade for a player that the GM knew well and who had a history of speed and scoring ability – exactly what the team needed (and still needs).

If he has a strong playoff, his less than ideal season will be forgotten. If he doesn’t, it probably lowers the price on his next deal, QO price-point not withstanding. The actual aav of the contract doesn’t need to be at the QO, only the tender. Patience is actually the order of the day with this player. He needs time to adjust to a new team, a new system, increased pace/urgency of play. Someone like Ennis is far more used to adjusting to a new team on the fly; it made perfect sense that a 30 yr. old journeyman would have an easier time fitting in that a 24 yr. old who has only known 1 organization in his 4.5 year career.

Woodguy v2.0

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ICYMI

NEW: Because Oilers:

Shift Starts – another layer of contextual information to help evaluate player results, is now live at http://Puckiq.com

I introduce it and break it down a bit here:

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*****END SPAM*****

stephen sheps

Woodguy v2.0,

that spam is tasty. dense, but tasty.

Hitman77

I was hoping Holland would bring in AA or Hoffman at the deadline. Both are fast and can put the puck in the net. Hoffman has a better track record but is older and will be UFA. I thought 2 2nd rounders was steep but going rate price for AA. We could surely use a 2nd rounder in this deep draft though, maybe via a Jesse/Benning/Russell trade. It’s too early to tell if AA is going to work out with us or not, the sample size is simply too small. I think if he signs a 2 year deal, it’ll provide time to show what the real player is.

geowal

jp:
Wonderful intro and analogy LT.

Those who frequent this blog are happy you never thought to consider another direction.

At one point I thought I was reading a retirement speech…phew!

Harpers Hair

geowal: At one point I thought I was reading a retirement speech…phew!

Not a chance.

LT is the Brogan Rafferty of blogging and broadcasting.

jtblack

To me it’s not about AA’s scoring rates. He’s proven that is his best attribute. He has skill and can score.

The flags around AA and the reason Yzerman would move on from him, is that AA has been questioned about

1) Team Play
2) Defensive Play
3) Overall Commitment

So the real kicker can AA provide some offense while not being a liability on the Defensive side and overall structure.

bsmart

I think mostly everyone in the hockey media agrees that Bob McKenzie rankings of first round prospects are beyond solid given that he speaks to NHL scouts directly to make his rankings. Before the 2018/2019 season started check out Bob’s preseason NHL draft rankings here:

https://www.tsn.ca/hughes-leads-the-pack-in-tsn-hockey-s-pre-season-draft-ranking-1.1172382

# 7 and #8 were highly regarded by multiple NHL teams

jtblack

bsmart:
I think mostly everyone in the hockey media agrees that Bob McKenzie rankings of first round prospects are beyond solid given that he speaks to NHL scouts directly to make his rankings. Before the 2018/2019 season started check out Bob’s preseason NHL draft rankings here:

https://www.tsn.ca/hughes-leads-the-pack-in-tsn-hockey-s-pre-season-draft-ranking-1.1172382

# 7 and #8 were highly regarded by multiple NHL teams

didn’t you post this the other day?

TheGreatBigMac

How is the draft working with this 24 team format? If a team loses in the play-in round, are they a lottery team?

Harpers Hair

TheGreatBigMac:
How is the draft working with this 24 team format? If a team loses in the play-in round, are they a lottery team?

Apparently not.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Harpers Hair: Not a chance.

LT is the Brogan Rafferty of blogging and broadcasting.

A meme?

OriginalPouzar

As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”.

This is what some (many) of us have been saying – the continuation of the current season doesn’t really have an effect on next season as its not likely to start until December, at the earliest in any event.

Darth Tu

OriginalPouzar:
As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”.

This is what some (many) of us have been saying – the continuation of the current season doesn’t really have an effect on next season as its not likely to start until December, at the earliest in any event.

and what a festive gift it will be!

I’m actually quite happy with a shortened season for next year – the last lockout year was a blast in terms of the hockey delivered.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
Twitter chatter this morning that the draft lottery will be held June 26.

That would mean a 7 team lottery.

Ya, I read the reports re: June 26 lottery but are we sure its just the 7 teams that aren’t coming back?

I mean, many of us are talking about and speculating about possible flipping of draft positions if lower-seed play-in teams win but nothing official on that and I’ve heard speculation its not on the table.

bsmart

jtblack,

I tried last week and was having trouble with the link. Did the link work for you before?

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Ya, I read the reports re: June 26 lottery but are we sure its just the 7 teams that aren’t coming back?

I mean, many of us are talking about and speculating about possible flipping of draft positions if lower-seed play-in teams win but nothing official on that and I’ve heard speculation its not on the table.

None of the play in games will happen before June 26…a moot point.

Georges

The thing is, AA doesn’t lack natural talent. How do we know?

Highlights on YT:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3CWJpEcrq0

Not a lot of players with 6 minute single season reels. Very high wows per 60.

His career Pts/GP is 0.51. Not a lot of forwards reach the 0.5 Pts/GP career mark.

He’s scoring 0.47 Pts/GP this year. Not a lot of forwards score at near top 6 rates in a “disappointing” year as per Bruce in the Journal.

AA was available probably because of his league worst +/-. Or maybe it was a DET special that only Holland had access to. Two second round picks is a super cheap price.

In 2019-20, 21 second round forward picks scored at a 0.5 Pts/GP rate or better. 16 of them were selected in drafts between 2009 and 2016. There were 146 forwards selected in the second round over that time. Which puts the odds of finding top-6 scoring rates from a second round pick at about 11% or 1 in 9.

That means that if you pick forwards in the second round 9 times, you’re going to expect to find AA level scoring just once. Yzerman has about a 20% chance of converting those two second round picks into an AA if he spends them both on forwards. DET made available a very good player because their team was having a fantastically horrible season after a poor stretch of seasons. We’ve been on the giving end of those transactions and, thanks to Holland and his relationship with the team and the player, we were finally on the receiving end.

Folks, seriously, it is very, very hard to find skaters like AA in the second round. Do the exercise yourselves. It’s eye-opening. But we don’t have to worry about finding an AA in the second round… yAAy!!

Bruce calls AA’s 2019-20 season poor and disappointing. I see why with the awful +/-. But that was on an awful team, so sucks for them. Not sure why Bruce takes issue with AA’s offense. Per above, his scoring rate was pretty close to his career mark (top-6) at the time of the trade. Weird.

Tippett is playing AA outside of our top 6. Naturally that will suppress his scoring, particularly with how much our bottom 6 struggles to put up offense. Good players need to play with good players. Tippett really tries to find the best in his players. So it’s a matter of patience.

Happily, there’s a lot of good to find in AA.

OriginalPouzar

Its unfair to show Rafferty and Bouchard as 5 years apart in age – they are really only 4.5 years apart in age. Is that significant for prospects at that age (19/20 and 24)????

OriginalPouzar

Yesterday’s blog had more comments than we’ve seen in quite a while and now the host ignites a potential Rafferty/Bouchard “conversation”.

We’re back baby!!!!

defmn

Georges:

Thank you for this. It confirms my unsubstantiated bias concerning this trade. 😉

From the very beginning the only thing that made sense to me about the trade is that AA was unhappy in Detroit for whatever reason and that unhappy players are not a luxury a team early into a rebuild can afford to have around the number of young guys they hope to have form their core. Every Oilers fan should know this from experience.

Holland knew the player so obviously felt that the ‘unhappiness’ could be dealt with in the Oilers dressing room or that at least it was worth taking that chance.

Two 2nd round picks for a guy who has scored 30 goals and in the prime of his career is a steal imo. Not for one moment did I think it was a high price to pay. If he works out Yzerman will be picking somewhere in the 50-55 range next year and in similar territory the following year.

You need more than a smidgeon of luck to get a top 6 forward in that range – even with two tries.

Woodguy v2.0

stephen sheps:
Woodguy v2.0,

that spam is tasty. dense, but tasty.

Thanks Stephen.

It’s best cut thin, then fried.

JimmyV1965

Georges:
The thing is, AA doesn’t lack natural talent. How do we know?

Highlights on YT:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3CWJpEcrq0

Not a lot of players with 6 minute single season reels. Very high wows per 60.

His career Pts/GP is 0.51. Not a lot of forwards reach the 0.5 Pts/GP career mark.

He’s scoring 0.47 Pts/GP this year. Not a lot of forwards score at near top 6 rates in a “disappointing” year as per Bruce in the Journal.

AA was available probably because of his league worst +/-. Or maybe it was a DET special that only Holland had access to. Two second round picks is a super cheap price.

In 2019-20, 21 second round forward picks scored at a 0.5 Pts/GP rate or better. 16 of them were selected in drafts between 2009 and 2016. There were 146 forwards selected in the second round over that time. Which puts the odds of finding top-6 scoring rates from a second round pick at about 11% or 1 in 9.

That means that if you pick forwards in the second round 9 times, you’re going to expect to find AA level scoring just once. Yzerman has about a 20% chance of converting those two second round picks into an AA if he spends them both on forwards. DET made available a very good player because their team was having a fantastically horrible season after a poor stretch of seasons. We’ve been on the giving end of those transactions and, thanks to Holland and his relationship with the team and the player, we were finally on the receiving end.

Folks, seriously, it is very, very hard to find skaters like AA in the second round. Do the exercise yourselves. It’s eye-opening. But we don’t have to worry about finding an AA in the second round… yAAy!!

Bruce calls AA’s 2019-20 season poor and disappointing. I see why with the awful +/-. But that was on an awful team, so sucks for them. Not sure why Bruce takes issue with AA’s offense. Per above, his scoring rate was pretty close to his career mark (top-6) at the time of the trade. Weird.

Tippett is playing AA outside of our top 6. Naturally that will suppress his scoring, particularly with how much our bottom 6 struggles to put up offense. Good players need to play with good players. Tippett really tries to find the best in his players. So it’s a matter of patience.

Happily, there’s a lot of good to find in AA.

Excellent post!!!

Georges

defmn: Thank you for this. It confirms my unsubstantiated bias concerning this trade. ?

From the very beginning the only thing that made sense to me about the trade is that AA was unhappy in Detroit for whatever reason and that unhappy players are not a luxury a team early into a rebuild can afford to have around the number of young guys they hope to have form their core. Every Oilers fan should know this from experience.

Holland knew the player so obviously felt that the ‘unhappiness’ could be dealt with in the Oilers dressing room or that at least it was worth taking that chance.

Two 2nd round picks for a guy who has scored 30 goals and in the prime of his career is a steal imo. Not for one moment did I think it was a high price to pay. If he works out Yzerman will be picking somewhere in the 50-55 range next year and in similar territory the following year.

You need more than a smidgeon of luck to get a top 6 forward in that range – even with two tries.

I said above that 16 of 146 second round forward picks scored at or above 0.5 Pts/GP (which is about top-6 rate) in 19-20. But only 14 of the 146 have managed to score at a 0.5 or better rate for their career to date. Which means, the odds of finding a top-6 forward in the second round is 1 in 10 or worse (because scoring rates fall off with age for most players).

You definitely need more than a smidgen of luck to get a top 6 F out of the second round. What’s bigger than a smidgen? A dollop? A heap?

Maybe Yzerman is a develop over draft kind of guy. Excellent track record of that in Tampa.

OriginalPouzar

Darth Tu:
On AA – I still feel like we’re giving him a 2 year contract regardless of whether there’s more hockey this season or not (it seems like there will be).I get the impression that for this blog’s readership at least, we all agree that he hasn’t played himself out of a job already.Sure there are things he can work on, but everyone has things they can work on and the potential is there for him to really click on one of the top two lines.

To my eye he showed flashes in the first game prior to the injury, and then again in the final game before the stoppage in play.

A 2 year contract walks him right to UFA status without buying any UFA years so, while I’m not necessarily against the term, that term should come with an AAV discount to not a cent more than the $3MM he currently makes and maybe even less. Nurse “took less” for that term in that situation.

Darth Tu

Georges: I said above that 16 of 146 second round forward picks scored at or above 0.5 Pts/GP (which is about top-6 rate) in 19-20. But only 14 of the 146 have managed to score at a 0.5 or better rate for their career to date. Which means, the odds of finding a top-6 forward in the second round is 1 in 10 or worse (because scoring rates fall off with age for most players).

You definitely need more than a smidgen of luck to get a top 6 F out of the second round. What’s bigger than a smidgen? A dollop? A heap?

Maybe Yzerman is a develop over draft kind of guy. Excellent track record of that in Tampa.

I’d also factor in the fact that we’d be picking around what, 50th? In the second round this year. TBD on next season, but if all goes to plan it’s 50th or higher.

two picks in the 50-60 range turning into a 40 point players in the NHL is highly unlikely. I like the bet.

leadfarmer

Hope AA comes out of the pause refocused. Seems like he was playing with no confidence

Darth Tu

OriginalPouzar: A 2 year contract walks him right to UFA status without buying any UFA years so, while I’m not necessarily against the term, that term should come with an AAV discount to not a cent more than the $3MM he currently makes and maybe even less. Nurse “took less” for that term in that situation.

I’m fine with that – $3 M per year straight to UFA. If he blows it out of the water I guess we’re paying, but if he tanks then at least it’s not a complete overpay for years and/or a buyout.

What’s the compromise line? 3/4 years at $3.5 million?

slopitch

Interesting before reading the comments I googled Sheila Gardner to see where she ended up and found out about James Gardner. Interesting. Good for him.

What would you all do on term for AA? I suspect 1 year is the safe option. Gotta think if its a success (playing with 97 or 29 should be) then we are stuck paying up next year. Not the worst outcome I suppose but maybe then a 2 year deal at a reasonable salary is best? Ive been in the AA hater comp but mostly cuz I want some 5v5 river pushers to help McDavid. Its possible the bet works.

slopitch

Woodguy v2.0:
*****SPAM*****

ICYMI

NEW: Because Oilers:

Shift Starts – another layer of contextual information to help evaluate player results, is now live at http://Puckiq.com

I introduce it and break it down a bit here:

https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/05/shift-starts-another-layer-of.html

*****END SPAM*****

Very cool stuff WG 🙂

jtblack

OriginalPouzar,

“As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”. ”

basic analysis of most situations, have a best case & worst case scenario; then a few other mid range scenarios.

On a worst case scenario the NHL, and most professional hockey leagues could see their businesses fail or have massive disruptions ..

All hockey leagues rely on gate revenue from fans. The NHL will forego gate revenue to save this season, but beyond that they know they cannot sustain playing games without Fans in attendance.

The reality is, until there is medicine, drugs, antibodies in enough people OR a vaccination (that has been given to xx% of the population) there is a real chance the NHL, AHL, CHL and European Leagues cannot have fans in their arena’s for years. 2 years? 4 years? 10 years? That is a worst case scenario, but it also is not inconceivable. And if the leagues cannot have fans for 2 years – 10 years, how long can the league last?

godot10

Darth Tu: I’m fine with that – $3 M per year straight to UFA.If he blows it out of the water I guess we’re paying, but if he tanks then at least it’s not a complete overpay for years and/or a buyout.

What’s the compromise line? 3/4 years at $3.5 million?

How about giving him his qualifying offer of $3 million and saying take it or leave it?

Georges

Darth Tu: I’d also factor in the fact that we’d be picking around what, 50th? In the second round this year. TBD on next season, but if all goes to plan it’s 50th or higher.

two picks in the 50-60 range turning into a 40 point players in the NHL is highly unlikely. I like the bet.

I don’t think draft position in a round matters after the first round when it comes to selecting forwards. Here’s why.

Let’s look at that 2009 to 2016 draft window. Focus on 2nd round.

– 146 forward picks

– 102 (69%) have played in the NHL

Let’s break these picks down into groups of 5: Group 0 = picks from 31-35, 1 = 36-40, etc. Group 6 are 2nd round picks taken 61st (e.g., Devin Shore, Zach Sanford).

First, here’s the probability that players selected in each group reach the NHL:

Group, Count of Picks, Count of NHL players, % success

0, 27, 23, 85
1, 23, 16, 70
2, 25, 16, 64
3, 22, 15, 68
4, 20, 12, 60
5, 24, 17, 71

6, 5, 3, 60

The top 5 picks matriculate more often than later picks. Probably a function of the needs of the lottery teams that are most often making these picks. Outside of the top 5, you don’t see a steady drop off in success at reaching the NHL. So, outside of the top 5 picks, where a forward is picked in the second round doesn’t help us predict whether the player will reach the NHL.

Second, let’s look at the Pts/GP stats of these second round forwards once they reach the NHL.

Group, Count of NHL players, Ave Pts/GP, 25%, Median, 75%

0, 23, .30, .16, .27, .33
1, 16, .25, .13, .19, .34
2, 16, .28, .21, .26, .34
3, 15, .28, .22, .30, .33
4, 12, .37, .32, .35, .41
5, 17, .39, .25, .31, .47

6, 3, .34, .33, .37, .37

Again, you can’t see a pattern where scoring falls off as you go further into the second round. The top 5 picks don’t really stand out once they reach the NHL. If, anything, it seems picks in the bottom half of the second round outperform the picks in the top half. The median forward in each of the bottom half groups is a little closer to the scoring mark of the median forward for the entire league (though still a little below).

Those bottom second round picks typically belong to playoff teams from the previous season. That’s probably the source of the better results: bottom second round picks are more likely to matriculate to better teams and play with better players.

Overall, it’s hard to see this and conclude that, for forwards, where you’re picked in the second round gives a lot of information about your chances to make and do well in the NHL.

EDIT: If it does, I think it supports the nurture over nature view. Who picks you matters more.

jtblack

Georges,

is this info just for 2nd round selections? I am confused.

Georges

jtblack:
Georges,

is this info just for 2nd round selections?I am confused.

Yes. I edited the original to make that more clear.

defmn

Georges:

Those bottom second round picks typically belong to playoff teams from the previous season. That’s probably the source of the better results: bottom second round picks are more likely to matriculate to better teams and play with better players.

And, as well, it may be that good teams are better at development of said players and don’t feel the need to rush them.

Georges

defmn: And, as well, it may be that good teams are better at development of said players and don’t feel the need to rush them.

For sure. The 75th percentile numbers are telling. The good teams are seemingly producing more forwards out of the second round who are able to win minutes in the NHL. Virtuous cycle, I guess. If you want to be good, first, you have to be good.

Hmm, I wonder if this holds up in general. Do forwards taken in the bottom half of a round outperform the forwards taken in the top half, once you leave the first round…?

jtblack

Georges,

another reason Top 5 picks in the 2nd round do well ; Round 1 is live and rapid. After Round 1 is complete, the GM’s get a whole night to take a deep breathe and re evaluate what players are remaninig .. so when teams come back for Round 2, the GM’s are dialed in on the players they want, that may have been late 1st round talents, but ended up dropping to the 2nd round …????

geowal

bsmart:
jtblack,

I tried last week and was having trouble with the link. Did the link work for you before?

It does work. Interesting lookback. Also interesting how much Lavoie plummeted vs Broberg.

Darth Tu

Georges: I don’t think draft position in a round matters after the first round when it comes to selecting forwards. Here’s why.

Let’s look at that 2009 to 2016 draft window. Focus on 2nd round.

– 146 forward picks

– 102 (69%) have played in the NHL

Let’s break these picks down into groups of 5: Group 0 = picks from 31-35, 1 = 36-40, etc. Group 6 are 2nd round picks taken 61st (e.g., Devin Shore, Zach Sanford).

First, here’s the probability that players selected in each group reach the NHL:

Group, Count of Picks, Count of NHL players, % success

0, 27, 23, 85
1, 23, 16, 70
2, 25, 16, 64
3, 22, 15, 68
4, 20, 12, 60
5, 24, 17, 71

6, 5, 3, 60

The top 5 picks matriculate more often than later picks. Probably a function of the needs of the lottery teams that are most often making these picks. Outside of the top 5, you don’t see a steady drop off in success at reaching the NHL. So, outside of the top 5 picks, where a forward is picked in the second round doesn’t help us predict whether the player will reach the NHL.

Second, let’s look at the Pts/GP stats of these second round forwards once they reach the NHL.

Group, Count of NHL players, Ave Pts/GP, 25%, Median, 75%

0, 23, .30, .16, .27, .33
1, 16, .25, .13, .19, .34
2, 16, .28, .21, .26, .34
3, 15, .28, .22, .30, .33
4, 12, .37, .32, .35, .41
5, 17, .39, .25, .31, .47

6, 3, .34, .33, .37, .37

Again, you can’t see a pattern where scoring falls off as you go further into the second round. The top 5 picks don’t really stand out once they reach the NHL. If, anything, it seems picks in the bottom half of the second round outperform the picks in the top half. The median forward in each of the bottom half groups is a little closer to the scoring mark of the median forward for the entire league (though still a little below).

Those bottom second round picks typically belong to playoff teams from the previous season. That’s probably the source of the better results: bottom second round picks are more likely to matriculate to better teams and play with better players.

Overall, it’s hard to see this and conclude that, for forwards, where you’re picked in the second round gives a lot of information about your chances to make and do well in the NHL.

EDIT: If it does, I think it supports the nurture over nature view. Who picks you matters more.

That’s pretty fascinating stuff.

One thing that I’m reading from the “good team” selections and chances of a player succeeding is, I guess if we are slowly doing better over time it probably hurts to give up 2nd round picks more in the future than it does right now.