Feels Like Home To Me

I started my first radio job (Wetaskiwin) at the same time as a bunch of talented young people, and found the same level of quality in my second job in Red Deer. Ron Clark is one of the most talented people I’ve ever worked with, I worked with Sheila Gardner for about one month because she was so talented K97 hired her purely on an aircheck that would blow your mind. Valerie Runyon was an outstanding writer, Colleen Buxton had a wicked sense of humor, Murray Fuhrer was a brilliant writer too. Ray Stout was a crusty and hilarious newsman, a mentor who taught me a lot in short space of time.

All of them had more natural talent than me, and I’m not being humble, it’s a fact. I had to work very hard, going over airchecks and finding what worked for me. You find out a lot about yourself by overcoming challenges in your career. Mine included a high pitched voice, nasal voice (talking through my nose instead of diaphragm), talking too fast and not paying attention.

I had so many things to work on it never occurred to me that quitting was an option. Maybe that’s the key. I was looking for a place to call home and found it in Edmonton. Maybe Andreas Athanasiou has the same experience.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

AA

I wrote about Athanasiou earlier in May for The Athletic, one of the main discoveries in looking at his DRW career pertained to the quality of linemates. During the period 2017-20 (up to the trade) Athanasiou was not playing with top flight linemates.

In his 30-goal season (2018-19), AA scored 21 times five on five. His most common linemates in the discipline were Luke Glendening (eight Athanasiou goals in 324 minutes), Frans Nielsen (seven goals in 294 minutes), Darren Helm (four goals in 198 minutes), Thomas Vanek (three goals in 198 minutes) and Tyler Bertuzzi (three goals in 193 minutes). Detroit’s best forwards, aside from AA, were Gustav Nyqvist (four goals in 160 minutes), Anthony Mantha (one goal in 137 minutes) and Dylan Larkin (one goal in 27 minutes).

I think it’s reasonable to suggest Athanasiou could flourish with either McDavid or Draisaitl as his pivot. There are other reasons, covered in that article for The Athletic.

It’s important for Athanasiou, and for Ken Holland, to see the fast train winger in more games than we’ve seen so far. A contract must be signed in the offseason, and the contract length is a big damned deal. Sometimes trades for second rounders result in a long and prosperous relationship, other times it’s someone passing through. These games to come matter.

PACIFIC DIVISION ROOKIES

I was asked via email yesterday why I don’t do the age adjustments for NHLE. As a for instance, Bouchard’s age adjusted NHLE would be somewhere around 38 points if I can still figure it out correctly. I’ve never seen a reason to run the age adjustment, since it’s already clear (age) that Bouchard has a more promising trajectory than blog hero Brogan (trumpet floursh) Rafferty.

Both men have great promise, neither man should be mocked or marginalized. Rafferty’s time is now, he has to make the NHL and establish himself. Hell, he’s two years older than Cooper Marody, it’s go time. Bouchard’s point totals could go 15 (age 20), 27 (age 21), 34 age (23) and then 38 (24) and he would be a more valuable asset than Rafferty every step of the way.

Would Bouchard be a better player than Rafferty in 2020-21? Ah, now that is a question worth discussing. Adjusting for age re: NHLE has no real use from my point of view.

I wrote about this group on May 16, for me the most interesting names are RD Connor Corcoran, Luke Henman, Milos Roman, Declan Chisholm. Some of these names will be signed this week, I’ll pick Corcoran as the best available.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The NHL memo on moving to Phase 2 is out, we’ll discuss it at length today on the Lowdown beginning at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will talk about the Woods-Mickelson-Brady-Manning charity gold event and golf’s return in a couple of weeks. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will chat NHL’s return, expectations of the Oilers versus Blackhawks and will the CFL have a season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soup at 10!

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108 Responses to "Feels Like Home To Me"

  1. Harpers Hair says:

    Radio Days:

    Sheila Gardner worked for me at CFRN Radio back in the day.

    A very talented and hardworking individual…a natural and also a great person to be around.

    She moved to Victoria after her CFRN stint and is now James Gardner.

    https://www.timescolonist.com/monitor-a-journey-from-sheila-to-james-1.105042

  2. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Radio Days:

    Sheila Gardner worked for me at CFRN Radio back in the day.

    A very talented and hardworking individual…a natural and also a great person to be around.

    She moved to Victoria after her CFRN stint and is now James Gardner.

    https://www.timescolonist.com/monitor-a-journey-from-sheila-to-james-1.105042

    I didn’t know that portion of his career/life, thanks for sharing. When I knew James, we would (my co-workers) sit and listen to the newscasts outside the booth in awe. No one else got that kind of respect, believe me. 🙂 We were all kids honestly, but Gardner’s tone and phrasing was incredible. A natural, as they say.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per LeBrun, NHL sending out their 29 phase 2 protocol.

    Expected to start in early June but not official date and its subject to change.

    Player will be allowed to use their team facilities with up to 6 players on ice. Other safety protocols to be followed – no coaches.

    No player forced to participate and teams cannot force players to come back to home cities to start local quarantines and ensure they are ready for phase 2.

    Players coming from over seas will need to do 14 day quarantine before they join.

    Players tested 2 days before they start at facilities and then there will be scheduled testing after – they will ensure they aren’t excessively testing asymptomatic persons ahead of public.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am baffled by the opinion that Holland is going to move on from AA and/or that it was a failed acquisition.

    Sure, if there is a deal out there for great value, AA isn’t untradable but I don’t think the GM is actively looking to trade the player and I would hesitate to put too much stock in to a short 9 game sample size (that included a vast change in team style and team energy and included injury).

    I was hestiant prior and at the time of trade to think that AA would mesh with McDavid – the styles didn’t/don’t seem to match for me but, then again, you never know and its only been a few games. The talent and potential is worth a “real shot”.

    At the very least, I’m encouraged by AA’s history of scoring goals at 5 on 5 and doing so with non elite linemates – he could fit very well in the middle six in Edmoton.

    Contract: Seems like one year around his QO makes sense uness something big happens (either way) in the re-start. One year still leave a year of team control.

    A 2-3 week re-start training camp could/should be huge for this player.

  5. jp says:

    Wonderful intro and analogy LT.

    Those who frequent this blog are happy you never thought to consider another direction.

  6. Harpers Hair says:

    Twitter chatter this morning that the draft lottery will be held June 26.

    That would mean a 7 team lottery.

  7. Darth Tu says:

    On AA – I still feel like we’re giving him a 2 year contract regardless of whether there’s more hockey this season or not (it seems like there will be). I get the impression that for this blog’s readership at least, we all agree that he hasn’t played himself out of a job already. Sure there are things he can work on, but everyone has things they can work on and the potential is there for him to really click on one of the top two lines.

    To my eye he showed flashes in the first game prior to the injury, and then again in the final game before the stoppage in play.

  8. buck yoakam says:

    Love me some Randy Newman…maybe AA is the new petr klima!….

  9. PennersPancakes says:

    buck yoakam,

    118 goals in 258 games as an Oiler, forgot how well Klima was at putting the puck in the net.

  10. ArmchairGM says:

    Laine on quarantining in a hotel if necessary during the upcoming playoffs:

    “I’ll have to bring my computer so that I can play some video games.”

    https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2020/05/22/jets-laine-on-post-quarantine-hockey-my-game-is-probably-gonna-look-terrible.html

    Who knew?

    XD

  11. stephen sheps says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am baffled by the opinion that Holland is going to move on from AA and/or that it was a failed acquisition.

    That’s an opinion? I haven’t really seen that espoused on here or really anywhere else.

    AA played 9 games as an Oiler, coming over from one of the worst rosters in the league, dealt with adjusting to the pace of a team in the thick of a playoff race and an entirely new system. He was having a down year and the Staples piece in the EJ today isn’t exactly a pretty picture, but I don’t think anyone is actively suggesting that they cut their losses with this player. And even if they do, it was a swing for the fences kind of trade for a player that the GM knew well and who had a history of speed and scoring ability – exactly what the team needed (and still needs).

    If he has a strong playoff, his less than ideal season will be forgotten. If he doesn’t, it probably lowers the price on his next deal, QO price-point not withstanding. The actual aav of the contract doesn’t need to be at the QO, only the tender. Patience is actually the order of the day with this player. He needs time to adjust to a new team, a new system, increased pace/urgency of play. Someone like Ennis is far more used to adjusting to a new team on the fly; it made perfect sense that a 30 yr. old journeyman would have an easier time fitting in that a 24 yr. old who has only known 1 organization in his 4.5 year career.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

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    Shift Starts – another layer of contextual information to help evaluate player results, is now live at http://Puckiq.com

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  13. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    that spam is tasty. dense, but tasty.

  14. Hitman77 says:

    I was hoping Holland would bring in AA or Hoffman at the deadline. Both are fast and can put the puck in the net. Hoffman has a better track record but is older and will be UFA. I thought 2 2nd rounders was steep but going rate price for AA. We could surely use a 2nd rounder in this deep draft though, maybe via a Jesse/Benning/Russell trade. It’s too early to tell if AA is going to work out with us or not, the sample size is simply too small. I think if he signs a 2 year deal, it’ll provide time to show what the real player is.

  15. geowal says:

    jp:
    Wonderful intro and analogy LT.

    Those who frequent this blog are happy you never thought to consider another direction.

    At one point I thought I was reading a retirement speech…phew!

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    geowal: At one point I thought I was reading a retirement speech…phew!

    Not a chance.

    LT is the Brogan Rafferty of blogging and broadcasting.

  17. jtblack says:

    To me it’s not about AA’s scoring rates. He’s proven that is his best attribute. He has skill and can score.

    The flags around AA and the reason Yzerman would move on from him, is that AA has been questioned about

    1) Team Play
    2) Defensive Play
    3) Overall Commitment

    So the real kicker can AA provide some offense while not being a liability on the Defensive side and overall structure.

  18. bsmart says:

    I think mostly everyone in the hockey media agrees that Bob McKenzie rankings of first round prospects are beyond solid given that he speaks to NHL scouts directly to make his rankings. Before the 2018/2019 season started check out Bob’s preseason NHL draft rankings here:

    https://www.tsn.ca/hughes-leads-the-pack-in-tsn-hockey-s-pre-season-draft-ranking-1.1172382

    # 7 and #8 were highly regarded by multiple NHL teams

  19. jtblack says:

    bsmart:
    I think mostly everyone in the hockey media agrees that Bob McKenzie rankings of first round prospects are beyond solid given that he speaks to NHL scouts directly to make his rankings. Before the 2018/2019 season started check out Bob’s preseason NHL draft rankings here:

    https://www.tsn.ca/hughes-leads-the-pack-in-tsn-hockey-s-pre-season-draft-ranking-1.1172382

    # 7 and #8 were highly regarded by multiple NHL teams

    didn’t you post this the other day?

  20. TheGreatBigMac says:

    How is the draft working with this 24 team format? If a team loses in the play-in round, are they a lottery team?

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    How is the draft working with this 24 team format? If a team loses in the play-in round, are they a lottery team?

    Apparently not.

  22. Rickety Cricket says:

    Harpers Hair: Not a chance.

    LT is the Brogan Rafferty of blogging and broadcasting.

    A meme?

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”.

    This is what some (many) of us have been saying – the continuation of the current season doesn’t really have an effect on next season as its not likely to start until December, at the earliest in any event.

  24. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”.

    This is what some (many) of us have been saying – the continuation of the current season doesn’t really have an effect on next season as its not likely to start until December, at the earliest in any event.

    and what a festive gift it will be!

    I’m actually quite happy with a shortened season for next year – the last lockout year was a blast in terms of the hockey delivered.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Twitter chatter this morning that the draft lottery will be held June 26.

    That would mean a 7 team lottery.

    Ya, I read the reports re: June 26 lottery but are we sure its just the 7 teams that aren’t coming back?

    I mean, many of us are talking about and speculating about possible flipping of draft positions if lower-seed play-in teams win but nothing official on that and I’ve heard speculation its not on the table.

  26. bsmart says:

    jtblack,

    I tried last week and was having trouble with the link. Did the link work for you before?

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ya, I read the reports re: June 26 lottery but are we sure its just the 7 teams that aren’t coming back?

    I mean, many of us are talking about and speculating about possible flipping of draft positions if lower-seed play-in teams win but nothing official on that and I’ve heard speculation its not on the table.

    None of the play in games will happen before June 26…a moot point.

  28. Georges says:

    The thing is, AA doesn’t lack natural talent. How do we know?

    Highlights on YT:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3CWJpEcrq0

    Not a lot of players with 6 minute single season reels. Very high wows per 60.

    His career Pts/GP is 0.51. Not a lot of forwards reach the 0.5 Pts/GP career mark.

    He’s scoring 0.47 Pts/GP this year. Not a lot of forwards score at near top 6 rates in a “disappointing” year as per Bruce in the Journal.

    AA was available probably because of his league worst +/-. Or maybe it was a DET special that only Holland had access to. Two second round picks is a super cheap price.

    In 2019-20, 21 second round forward picks scored at a 0.5 Pts/GP rate or better. 16 of them were selected in drafts between 2009 and 2016. There were 146 forwards selected in the second round over that time. Which puts the odds of finding top-6 scoring rates from a second round pick at about 11% or 1 in 9.

    That means that if you pick forwards in the second round 9 times, you’re going to expect to find AA level scoring just once. Yzerman has about a 20% chance of converting those two second round picks into an AA if he spends them both on forwards. DET made available a very good player because their team was having a fantastically horrible season after a poor stretch of seasons. We’ve been on the giving end of those transactions and, thanks to Holland and his relationship with the team and the player, we were finally on the receiving end.

    Folks, seriously, it is very, very hard to find skaters like AA in the second round. Do the exercise yourselves. It’s eye-opening. But we don’t have to worry about finding an AA in the second round… yAAy!!

    Bruce calls AA’s 2019-20 season poor and disappointing. I see why with the awful +/-. But that was on an awful team, so sucks for them. Not sure why Bruce takes issue with AA’s offense. Per above, his scoring rate was pretty close to his career mark (top-6) at the time of the trade. Weird.

    Tippett is playing AA outside of our top 6. Naturally that will suppress his scoring, particularly with how much our bottom 6 struggles to put up offense. Good players need to play with good players. Tippett really tries to find the best in his players. So it’s a matter of patience.

    Happily, there’s a lot of good to find in AA.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its unfair to show Rafferty and Bouchard as 5 years apart in age – they are really only 4.5 years apart in age. Is that significant for prospects at that age (19/20 and 24)????

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yesterday’s blog had more comments than we’ve seen in quite a while and now the host ignites a potential Rafferty/Bouchard “conversation”.

    We’re back baby!!!!

  31. defmn says:

    Georges:

    Thank you for this. It confirms my unsubstantiated bias concerning this trade. 😉

    From the very beginning the only thing that made sense to me about the trade is that AA was unhappy in Detroit for whatever reason and that unhappy players are not a luxury a team early into a rebuild can afford to have around the number of young guys they hope to have form their core. Every Oilers fan should know this from experience.

    Holland knew the player so obviously felt that the ‘unhappiness’ could be dealt with in the Oilers dressing room or that at least it was worth taking that chance.

    Two 2nd round picks for a guy who has scored 30 goals and in the prime of his career is a steal imo. Not for one moment did I think it was a high price to pay. If he works out Yzerman will be picking somewhere in the 50-55 range next year and in similar territory the following year.

    You need more than a smidgeon of luck to get a top 6 forward in that range – even with two tries.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    that spam is tasty. dense, but tasty.

    Thanks Stephen.

    It’s best cut thin, then fried.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges:
    The thing is, AA doesn’t lack natural talent. How do we know?

    Highlights on YT:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3CWJpEcrq0

    Not a lot of players with 6 minute single season reels. Very high wows per 60.

    His career Pts/GP is 0.51. Not a lot of forwards reach the 0.5 Pts/GP career mark.

    He’s scoring 0.47 Pts/GP this year. Not a lot of forwards score at near top 6 rates in a “disappointing” year as per Bruce in the Journal.

    AA was available probably because of his league worst +/-. Or maybe it was a DET special that only Holland had access to. Two second round picks is a super cheap price.

    In 2019-20, 21 second round forward picks scored at a 0.5 Pts/GP rate or better. 16 of them were selected in drafts between 2009 and 2016. There were 146 forwards selected in the second round over that time. Which puts the odds of finding top-6 scoring rates from a second round pick at about 11% or 1 in 9.

    That means that if you pick forwards in the second round 9 times, you’re going to expect to find AA level scoring just once. Yzerman has about a 20% chance of converting those two second round picks into an AA if he spends them both on forwards. DET made available a very good player because their team was having a fantastically horrible season after a poor stretch of seasons. We’ve been on the giving end of those transactions and, thanks to Holland and his relationship with the team and the player, we were finally on the receiving end.

    Folks, seriously, it is very, very hard to find skaters like AA in the second round. Do the exercise yourselves. It’s eye-opening. But we don’t have to worry about finding an AA in the second round… yAAy!!

    Bruce calls AA’s 2019-20 season poor and disappointing. I see why with the awful +/-. But that was on an awful team, so sucks for them. Not sure why Bruce takes issue with AA’s offense. Per above, his scoring rate was pretty close to his career mark (top-6) at the time of the trade. Weird.

    Tippett is playing AA outside of our top 6. Naturally that will suppress his scoring, particularly with how much our bottom 6 struggles to put up offense. Good players need to play with good players. Tippett really tries to find the best in his players. So it’s a matter of patience.

    Happily, there’s a lot of good to find in AA.

    Excellent post!!!

  34. Georges says:

    defmn: Thank you for this. It confirms my unsubstantiated bias concerning this trade. ?

    From the very beginning the only thing that made sense to me about the trade is that AA was unhappy in Detroit for whatever reason and that unhappy players are not a luxury a team early into a rebuild can afford to have around the number of young guys they hope to have form their core. Every Oilers fan should know this from experience.

    Holland knew the player so obviously felt that the ‘unhappiness’ could be dealt with in the Oilers dressing room or that at least it was worth taking that chance.

    Two 2nd round picks for a guy who has scored 30 goals and in the prime of his career is a steal imo. Not for one moment did I think it was a high price to pay. If he works out Yzerman will be picking somewhere in the 50-55 range next year and in similar territory the following year.

    You need more than a smidgeon of luck to get a top 6 forward in that range – even with two tries.

    I said above that 16 of 146 second round forward picks scored at or above 0.5 Pts/GP (which is about top-6 rate) in 19-20. But only 14 of the 146 have managed to score at a 0.5 or better rate for their career to date. Which means, the odds of finding a top-6 forward in the second round is 1 in 10 or worse (because scoring rates fall off with age for most players).

    You definitely need more than a smidgen of luck to get a top 6 F out of the second round. What’s bigger than a smidgen? A dollop? A heap?

    Maybe Yzerman is a develop over draft kind of guy. Excellent track record of that in Tampa.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    On AA – I still feel like we’re giving him a 2 year contract regardless of whether there’s more hockey this season or not (it seems like there will be).I get the impression that for this blog’s readership at least, we all agree that he hasn’t played himself out of a job already.Sure there are things he can work on, but everyone has things they can work on and the potential is there for him to really click on one of the top two lines.

    To my eye he showed flashes in the first game prior to the injury, and then again in the final game before the stoppage in play.

    A 2 year contract walks him right to UFA status without buying any UFA years so, while I’m not necessarily against the term, that term should come with an AAV discount to not a cent more than the $3MM he currently makes and maybe even less. Nurse “took less” for that term in that situation.

  36. Darth Tu says:

    Georges: I said above that 16 of 146 second round forward picks scored at or above 0.5 Pts/GP (which is about top-6 rate) in 19-20. But only 14 of the 146 have managed to score at a 0.5 or better rate for their career to date. Which means, the odds of finding a top-6 forward in the second round is 1 in 10 or worse (because scoring rates fall off with age for most players).

    You definitely need more than a smidgen of luck to get a top 6 F out of the second round. What’s bigger than a smidgen? A dollop? A heap?

    Maybe Yzerman is a develop over draft kind of guy. Excellent track record of that in Tampa.

    I’d also factor in the fact that we’d be picking around what, 50th? In the second round this year. TBD on next season, but if all goes to plan it’s 50th or higher.

    two picks in the 50-60 range turning into a 40 point players in the NHL is highly unlikely. I like the bet.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    Hope AA comes out of the pause refocused. Seems like he was playing with no confidence

  38. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar: A 2 year contract walks him right to UFA status without buying any UFA years so, while I’m not necessarily against the term, that term should come with an AAV discount to not a cent more than the $3MM he currently makes and maybe even less. Nurse “took less” for that term in that situation.

    I’m fine with that – $3 M per year straight to UFA. If he blows it out of the water I guess we’re paying, but if he tanks then at least it’s not a complete overpay for years and/or a buyout.

    What’s the compromise line? 3/4 years at $3.5 million?

  39. slopitch says:

    Interesting before reading the comments I googled Sheila Gardner to see where she ended up and found out about James Gardner. Interesting. Good for him.

    What would you all do on term for AA? I suspect 1 year is the safe option. Gotta think if its a success (playing with 97 or 29 should be) then we are stuck paying up next year. Not the worst outcome I suppose but maybe then a 2 year deal at a reasonable salary is best? Ive been in the AA hater comp but mostly cuz I want some 5v5 river pushers to help McDavid. Its possible the bet works.

  40. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****SPAM*****

    ICYMI

    NEW: Because Oilers:

    Shift Starts – another layer of contextual information to help evaluate player results, is now live at http://Puckiq.com

    I introduce it and break it down a bit here:

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/05/shift-starts-another-layer-of.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Very cool stuff WG 🙂

  41. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”. ”

    basic analysis of most situations, have a best case & worst case scenario; then a few other mid range scenarios.

    On a worst case scenario the NHL, and most professional hockey leagues could see their businesses fail or have massive disruptions ..

    All hockey leagues rely on gate revenue from fans. The NHL will forego gate revenue to save this season, but beyond that they know they cannot sustain playing games without Fans in attendance.

    The reality is, until there is medicine, drugs, antibodies in enough people OR a vaccination (that has been given to xx% of the population) there is a real chance the NHL, AHL, CHL and European Leagues cannot have fans in their arena’s for years. 2 years? 4 years? 10 years? That is a worst case scenario, but it also is not inconceivable. And if the leagues cannot have fans for 2 years – 10 years, how long can the league last?

  42. godot10 says:

    Darth Tu: I’m fine with that – $3 M per year straight to UFA.If he blows it out of the water I guess we’re paying, but if he tanks then at least it’s not a complete overpay for years and/or a buyout.

    What’s the compromise line? 3/4 years at $3.5 million?

    How about giving him his qualifying offer of $3 million and saying take it or leave it?

  43. Georges says:

    Darth Tu: I’d also factor in the fact that we’d be picking around what, 50th? In the second round this year. TBD on next season, but if all goes to plan it’s 50th or higher.

    two picks in the 50-60 range turning into a 40 point players in the NHL is highly unlikely. I like the bet.

    I don’t think draft position in a round matters after the first round when it comes to selecting forwards. Here’s why.

    Let’s look at that 2009 to 2016 draft window. Focus on 2nd round.

    – 146 forward picks

    – 102 (69%) have played in the NHL

    Let’s break these picks down into groups of 5: Group 0 = picks from 31-35, 1 = 36-40, etc. Group 6 are 2nd round picks taken 61st (e.g., Devin Shore, Zach Sanford).

    First, here’s the probability that players selected in each group reach the NHL:

    Group, Count of Picks, Count of NHL players, % success

    0, 27, 23, 85
    1, 23, 16, 70
    2, 25, 16, 64
    3, 22, 15, 68
    4, 20, 12, 60
    5, 24, 17, 71

    6, 5, 3, 60

    The top 5 picks matriculate more often than later picks. Probably a function of the needs of the lottery teams that are most often making these picks. Outside of the top 5, you don’t see a steady drop off in success at reaching the NHL. So, outside of the top 5 picks, where a forward is picked in the second round doesn’t help us predict whether the player will reach the NHL.

    Second, let’s look at the Pts/GP stats of these second round forwards once they reach the NHL.

    Group, Count of NHL players, Ave Pts/GP, 25%, Median, 75%

    0, 23, .30, .16, .27, .33
    1, 16, .25, .13, .19, .34
    2, 16, .28, .21, .26, .34
    3, 15, .28, .22, .30, .33
    4, 12, .37, .32, .35, .41
    5, 17, .39, .25, .31, .47

    6, 3, .34, .33, .37, .37

    Again, you can’t see a pattern where scoring falls off as you go further into the second round. The top 5 picks don’t really stand out once they reach the NHL. If, anything, it seems picks in the bottom half of the second round outperform the picks in the top half. The median forward in each of the bottom half groups is a little closer to the scoring mark of the median forward for the entire league (though still a little below).

    Those bottom second round picks typically belong to playoff teams from the previous season. That’s probably the source of the better results: bottom second round picks are more likely to matriculate to better teams and play with better players.

    Overall, it’s hard to see this and conclude that, for forwards, where you’re picked in the second round gives a lot of information about your chances to make and do well in the NHL.

    EDIT: If it does, I think it supports the nurture over nature view. Who picks you matters more.

  44. jtblack says:

    Georges,

    is this info just for 2nd round selections? I am confused.

  45. Georges says:

    jtblack:
    Georges,

    is this info just for 2nd round selections?I am confused.

    Yes. I edited the original to make that more clear.

  46. defmn says:

    Georges:

    Those bottom second round picks typically belong to playoff teams from the previous season. That’s probably the source of the better results: bottom second round picks are more likely to matriculate to better teams and play with better players.

    And, as well, it may be that good teams are better at development of said players and don’t feel the need to rush them.

  47. Georges says:

    defmn: And, as well, it may be that good teams are better at development of said players and don’t feel the need to rush them.

    For sure. The 75th percentile numbers are telling. The good teams are seemingly producing more forwards out of the second round who are able to win minutes in the NHL. Virtuous cycle, I guess. If you want to be good, first, you have to be good.

    Hmm, I wonder if this holds up in general. Do forwards taken in the bottom half of a round outperform the forwards taken in the top half, once you leave the first round…?

  48. jtblack says:

    Georges,

    another reason Top 5 picks in the 2nd round do well ; Round 1 is live and rapid. After Round 1 is complete, the GM’s get a whole night to take a deep breathe and re evaluate what players are remaninig .. so when teams come back for Round 2, the GM’s are dialed in on the players they want, that may have been late 1st round talents, but ended up dropping to the 2nd round …????

  49. geowal says:

    bsmart:
    jtblack,

    I tried last week and was having trouble with the link. Did the link work for you before?

    It does work. Interesting lookback. Also interesting how much Lavoie plummeted vs Broberg.

  50. Darth Tu says:

    Georges: I don’t think draft position in a round matters after the first round when it comes to selecting forwards. Here’s why.

    Let’s look at that 2009 to 2016 draft window. Focus on 2nd round.

    – 146 forward picks

    – 102 (69%) have played in the NHL

    Let’s break these picks down into groups of 5: Group 0 = picks from 31-35, 1 = 36-40, etc. Group 6 are 2nd round picks taken 61st (e.g., Devin Shore, Zach Sanford).

    First, here’s the probability that players selected in each group reach the NHL:

    Group, Count of Picks, Count of NHL players, % success

    0, 27, 23, 85
    1, 23, 16, 70
    2, 25, 16, 64
    3, 22, 15, 68
    4, 20, 12, 60
    5, 24, 17, 71

    6, 5, 3, 60

    The top 5 picks matriculate more often than later picks. Probably a function of the needs of the lottery teams that are most often making these picks. Outside of the top 5, you don’t see a steady drop off in success at reaching the NHL. So, outside of the top 5 picks, where a forward is picked in the second round doesn’t help us predict whether the player will reach the NHL.

    Second, let’s look at the Pts/GP stats of these second round forwards once they reach the NHL.

    Group, Count of NHL players, Ave Pts/GP, 25%, Median, 75%

    0, 23, .30, .16, .27, .33
    1, 16, .25, .13, .19, .34
    2, 16, .28, .21, .26, .34
    3, 15, .28, .22, .30, .33
    4, 12, .37, .32, .35, .41
    5, 17, .39, .25, .31, .47

    6, 3, .34, .33, .37, .37

    Again, you can’t see a pattern where scoring falls off as you go further into the second round. The top 5 picks don’t really stand out once they reach the NHL. If, anything, it seems picks in the bottom half of the second round outperform the picks in the top half. The median forward in each of the bottom half groups is a little closer to the scoring mark of the median forward for the entire league (though still a little below).

    Those bottom second round picks typically belong to playoff teams from the previous season. That’s probably the source of the better results: bottom second round picks are more likely to matriculate to better teams and play with better players.

    Overall, it’s hard to see this and conclude that, for forwards, where you’re picked in the second round gives a lot of information about your chances to make and do well in the NHL.

    EDIT: If it does, I think it supports the nurture over nature view. Who picks you matters more.

    That’s pretty fascinating stuff.

    One thing that I’m reading from the “good team” selections and chances of a player succeeding is, I guess if we are slowly doing better over time it probably hurts to give up 2nd round picks more in the future than it does right now.

  51. Georges says:

    Georges: For sure. The 75th percentile numbers are telling. The good teams are seemingly producing more forwards out of the second round who are able to win minutes in the NHL. Virtuous cycle, I guess. If you want to be good, first, you have to be good.

    Hmm, I wonder if this holds up in general. Do forwards taken in the bottom half of a round outperform the forwards taken in the top half, once you leave the first round…?

    Here’s what I get:

    Round, Top Half?, Count, Avg Pts/GP, 25%, Median, 75%

    1, Y, 76, .59, .38, .61, .73
    1, N, 80, .37, .20, .34, .49

    2, Y, 55, .28, .16, .26, .33
    2, N, 47, .35, .25, .33, .42

    3, Y, 39, .21, .02, .19, .32
    3, N, 33, .27, .13, .24, .38

    4, Y, 32, .25, .10, .27, .33
    4, N, 27, .21, .12, .19, .28

    5, Y, 25, .25, .16, .23, .33
    5, N, 24, .24, .13, .21, .36

    6, Y, 18, .22, .06, .22, .34
    6, N, 20, .23, .05, .22, .31

    7, Y, 13, .24, .00, .17, .31
    7, N, 14, .31, .06, .26, .50

    Top half is Y for the first 15 picks, N for the rest.

    Observations:

    – Top half forward picks in the first round clearly outperform the non top half picks. Duh!

    – The tables turn, however, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not a whole lot, but enough to make you notice.

    – Wow, scoring rates for median forwards who made it to the NHL after being picked in the 3rd round or later… really low. Expected, I guess. There are only so many jobs. And the jobs are filled by the best players from earlier drafts.

    – It’s interesting to see how similar the lines are for non top half 1st and 2nd round forwards. The big difference is in counts, a lot more of the 1st round picks make the league. But, once they get there, the two groups of players produce comparable results. I think this, again, has to do with the teams involved probably having most of the top end forward spots filled, so that their younger players get to some times play with high end skill but otherwise end up playing supporting roles.

  52. Georges says:

    jtblack:
    Georges,

    another reason Top 5 picks in the 2nd round do well ; Round 1 is live and rapid.After Round 1 is complete, the GM’s get a whole night to take a deep breathe and re evaluate what players are remaninig .. so when teams come back for Round 2, the GM’s are dialed in on the players they want, that may have been late 1st round talents, but ended up dropping to the 2nd round …????

    You say “another reason Top 5 picks in the 2nd round do well”.

    ??

    I don’t think the information I posted gave much support to the idea that top 5 2nd round forward picks have done well. They’re more likely to get to the NHL. But their results once they get there aren’t noteworthy compared to later 2nd round picks.

  53. defmn says:

    Georges:

    Thanks for doing this. The ‘draft/development’ discussion that pops up here since forever just got a nice chunk of data to ponder on.

  54. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Jakob Stenqvist. 22 years old. RD. Good offense. Multiple years pro experience. Teammate of Niemelainen. That is all.

  55. Georges says:

    defmn: Thanks for doing this. The ‘draft/development’ discussion that pops up here since forever just got a nice chunk of data to ponder on.

    I should have a look at drafting defensemen and goalies. Forwards are just so much easier…

    Well, really, defensemen arrange themselves by TOI/GP, and I think goalies can be sussed by GP. If I had to use a single metric to compare results.

    Yeah, forwards by Pts/GP, defensemen by TOI/GP, and goalies by GP.

    In my opinion, teams would do much better by investing more in development than drafting. LT does as well as the pro scouts with much less running about (I’m guessing). He always says he favors scoring for forwards, which is eminently sensible. That heuristic seems to get him pretty far down the road.

    So I’d fuss less about who to pick and more about how to build picks into competitive NHL players. That’s an area that is going to improve more over time than picking.

  56. defmn says:

    Georges: I should have a look at drafting defensemen and goalies. Forwards are just so much easier…

    Well, really, defensemen arrange themselves by TOI/GP, and I think goalies can be sussed by GP. If I had to use a single metric to compare results.

    Yeah, forwards by Pts/GP, defensemen by TOI/GP, and goalies by GP.

    I’ve wrestled with this myself. Pts/GP for forwards is clearest imo because the other two are more affected by the options available to the HC.

    How to normalize for that is above my pay grade.

  57. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: As much as progress is being made towards some sort of finish of the 2019/20 campaign, John Shannon reiterates that the belief in talking to many is that the 2020/21 season won’t start until there are “fans in the stands”.

    This is what some (many) of us have been saying – the continuation of the current season doesn’t really have an effect on next season as its not likely to start until December, at the earliest in any event.

    Agreed I don’t think the offseason will be any shorter than usual . Strong chance that the new season start would be delayed as much as the delay in awarding the Cup.

    An October start would be a bad move as that’s right where flu season starts. Flu season peaks most years anywhere from Dec-March with Feb as the most likely. Covid being novel will have its own timing in different places. But not planning a start before Christmas makes it easier to pick a start date on the downside of a Fall covid wave.

    Starting without fans next year will likely require CBA changes and likely extension in time. Players might end up reminiscing about the escrow years. Next year there might be reductions up front in order to start games with no or minimal gate.

  58. defmn says:

    Georges:

    In my opinion, teams would do much better by investing more in development than drafting. LT does as well as the pro scouts with much less running about (I’m guessing). He always says he favors scoring for forwards, which is eminently sensible. That heuristic seems to get him pretty far down the road.

    So I’d fuss less about who to pick and more about how to build picks into competitive NHL players. That’s an area that is going to improve more over time than picking.

    I remember very clearly a discussion about the role of development when the Oilers decided to not have their own AHL team and sent their prospects to 3 or 4 other teams.

    There were a significant number of posters – primarily on the ‘analytics’ side of the then, heated, discussion – who argued vigourously that the money saved by not having an AHL team was better spent on acquiring a better 3rd line winger.

    We have come a long way since the cap returned on ice success to smart decisions by GM’s rather than the deep pockets of owners.

  59. jtblack says:

    Georges: You say “another reason Top 5 picks in the 2nd round do well”.

    ??

    I don’t think the information I posted gave much support to the idea that top 5 2nd round forward picks have done well. They’re more likely to get to the NHL. But their results once they get there aren’t noteworthy compared to later 2nd round picks.

    got you. I meant do well as a % to making the NHL. But I see they don’t out perform later 2nd rounds on a ppg basis ….

  60. jtblack says:

    LT: if Cole Fonstad remains unsigned, would he be worth a contract for AHL?

    Good skater, decent stats … ?

  61. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Side note while I have the Liiga up and mentioned:

    Niemelainen’s TOI/gm jumped from 13:47/gm with HPK last season to 19:46/gm with Assat last season. That was second on his team.

    Also, undrafted, 20 yr old rookie RD Axel Rindell had a pretty solid rookie season in the Liiga with 22 pts and 225 SOG in 47 games while playing 18:18/gm. He was on one of the worst teams in the league, but his offense is very impressive.

  62. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    LT: if Cole Fonstad remains unsigned, would he be worth a contract for AHL?

    Good skater, decent stats … ?

    He’s definitely worth an AHL deal imo.

  63. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: He’s definitely worth an AHL deal imo.

    haven’t watched him … but know he is considered a good skater. maybe a late bloomer … 65 pts in 51 games last season (as a 19 yr old) for P.A. …

    seems like a good player to add to Bakersfield LW

  64. PennersPancakes says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    I see hes ranked as the 60th euro skater as an overager, with Bouchard and Bear likely being in the NHL next year, could be nice to take a flyer on a lottery ticket that is at least AHL caliber. At what point do Euros become free agents instead of draft eligible?

    Looking at a list of potential Euro FAs I noticed Julius Nättinen. Anaheims sloppy seconds he left NA for Finland (remind you of someone?) and put up 55 points in 55 Liiga games (33) goals with the vast majority of points coming at even strength. A year older than Pulju he seems to have found his groove in a transition from center to winger.

    Could be another okay cheap complimentary winger with a little upside. 3rd line shoot first winger for free?

  65. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    I see hes ranked as the 60th euro skater as an overager, with Bouchard and Bear likely being in the NHL next year, could be nice to take a flyer on a lottery ticket that is at least AHL caliber. At what point do Euros become free agents instead of draft eligible?

    Looking at a list of potential Euro FAs I noticed Julius Nättinen. Anaheims sloppy seconds he left NA for Finland (remind you of someone?) and put up 55 points in 55 Liiga games (33) goals with the vast majority of points coming at even strength. A year older than Pulju he seems to have found his groove in a transition from center to winger.

    Could be another okay cheap complimentary winger with a little upside. 3rd line shoot first winger for free?

    Yeah, he strikes me as a solid later round pick that could potentially step right into the AHL.

    As for Nattinen, he strikes me as a great bet to add to the forward group. I recall checking on him a few months back, but it hadn’t occurred to me that he was a FA free from Ducks control. Good catch!

  66. Georges says:

    defmn: I’ve wrestled with this myself. Pts/GP for forwards is clearest imo because the other two are more affected by the options available to the HC.

    How to normalize for that is above my pay grade.

    What the HC thinks about and does with players is useful information.

    We assume HC’s have the deepest well of experience, information, and knowledge when it comes to making personnel decisions. And we know that the HC’s have a lot riding on these decisions, so they have to really take the time and care to get them right.

    It’s why Pts/GP is the best metric for evaluating forwards. It predicts future results better than any other offensive metric, including 5v5 P60. Pts/GP predicts future 5v5 P60 better than 5v5 P60 itself!

    Take Bruce’s read on AA today. Apparently AA’s 5v5 P60 is down from prior years. This probably contributed to Bruce’s take that AA’s season has been disappointing offensively. But, if you look at his Pts/GP, he’s pretty much where he’s been at career wise, right at the edge of top 6 range.

    If a player’s Pts/GP hold up while his 5v5 scoring goes down, that tells you the player is finding offense in other disciplines, and that the HC is comfortable playing the player in those other disciplines (like the PP). This suggests the HC still sees the player as one of his better offensive options, despite the drop in 5v5 scoring. And this seems to relate to the future opportunity the player is likely to get under the HC. I think this is why you’re more likely to see 5v5 numbers come around for players who kept their head up with Pts/GP. The HC is on their side.

    As for defensemen and goalies, TOI/GP and GP are basically usage stats. They tell you how much these players play. I think that’s about as much as you need to know for evaluating draft picks. Can a team find a 20 minute defenseman or a 50 game goalie in the 3rd round? Is it more likely that the team will find such a player in earlier rounds? Can a draft pick play a top-4 minutes role in his career? Can he become a starting goalie?

    Usage stats are again dictated by the HC. An interested, well-informed HC who is highly motivated to get usage right in the short and long term, given his options. Usage isn’t a perfect guide to player quality. But, in the case of defensemen and goalies, all of the other stats are too influenced by the performance of teammates; they don’t repeat the way that Pts/GP does for forwards. The between season correlation of TOI/GP for defensemen is usually around 0.8 or higher. Defensemen end up with roles. HC’s make consistent choices given their options. (Haven’t checked the GP angle with goalies yet, going on a hunch for now.)

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    So stage 2 coming in early June where players will be allowed to use team facilities with many, many, many protective measures in place (as there should be).

    No player will be mandated to do so or to start to take steps to come back to their team home to get ready.

    With that said, guys coming from overseas will have to quarantine for 14 days before they can participate and I do anticipate that Klef, Larsson, Nygard, etc. probably want to participate and will be looking in to coming back to Edmonton fairly soon – just my guess.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    stephen sheps: That’s an opinion? I haven’t really seen that espoused on here or really anywhere else.

    AA played 9 games as an Oiler, coming over from one of the worst rosters in the league, dealt with adjusting to the pace of a team in the thick of a playoff race and an entirely new system. He was having a down year and the Staples piece in the EJ today isn’t exactly a pretty picture, but I don’t think anyone is actively suggesting that they cut their losses with this player. And even if they do, it was a swing for the fences kind of trade for a player that the GM knew well and who had a history of speed and scoring ability – exactly what the team needed (and still needs).

    If he has a strong playoff, his less than ideal season will be forgotten. If he doesn’t, it probably lowers the price on his next deal, QO price-point not withstanding. The actual aav of the contract doesn’t need to be at the QO, only the tender. Patience is actually the order of the day with this player. He needs time to adjust to a new team, a new system, increased pace/urgency of play. Someone like Ennis is far more used to adjusting to a new team on the fly; it made perfect sense that a 30 yr. old journeyman would have an easier time fitting in that a 24 yr. old who has only known 1 organization in his 4.5 year career.

    Yes, that’s an opinion – I’ve seen it on here (not today or recently) and elsewhere (mostly OilersNation comments but not exclusively).

    Ya, I have seen comments around re: cutting loses with this player but you don’t need to convince me (or most in this knowledgeable community).

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hitman77:
    I was hoping Holland would bring in AA or Hoffman at the deadline.Both are fast and can put the puck in the net.Hoffman has a better track record but is older and will be UFA.I thought 2 2nd rounders was steep but going rate price for AA.We could surely use a 2nd rounder in this deep draft though, maybe via a Jesse/Benning/Russell trade.It’s too early to tell if AA is going to work out with us or not, the sample size is simply too small.I think if he signs a 2 year deal, it’ll provide time to show what the real player is.

    Yes, a 2nd round pick in this draft would be great and, assuming the draft is post-conclusion, I do think Holland will be looking to acquire just that.

    He is on record as stating “the scouts deserve picks” and related comments re: acquiring picks (previous article at The Athletic and he may have mentioned in when on the OilCan podcast, I can’t recall for sure).

    We can’t say with surety if he’ll be able to consummate a deal to get more picks but we do know that he would like to and has available assets to use.

  70. Rondo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If the press handled the flu like Covid there would never be hockey again. No one would step out of their house.

  71. defmn says:

    Georges: What the HC thinks about and does with players is useful information.

    We assume HC’s have the deepest well of experience, information, and knowledge when it comes to making personnel decisions. And we know that the HC’s have a lot riding on these decisions, so they have to really take the time and care to get them right.

    It’s why Pts/GP is the best metric for evaluating forwards. It predicts future results better than any other offensive metric, including 5v5 P60. Pts/GP predicts future 5v5 P60 better than 5v5 P60 itself!

    Take Bruce’s read on AA today. Apparently AA’s 5v5 P60 is down from prior years. This probably contributed to Bruce’s take that AA’s season has been disappointing offensively. But, if you look at his Pts/GP, he’s pretty much where he’s been at career wise, right at the edge of top 6 range.

    If a player’s Pts/GP hold up while his 5v5 scoring goes down, that tells you the player is finding offense in other disciplines, and that the HC is comfortable playing the player in those other disciplines (like the PP). This suggests the HC still sees the player as one of his better offensive options, despite the drop in 5v5 scoring. And this seems to relate to the future opportunity the player is likely to get under the HC. I think this is why you’re more likely to see 5v5 numbers come around for players who kept their head up with Pts/GP. The HC is on their side.

    As for defensemen and goalies, TOI/GP and GP are basically usage stats. They tell you how much these players play. I think that’s about as much as you need to know for evaluating draft picks. Can a team find a 20 minute defenseman or a 50 game goalie in the 3rd round? Is it more likely that the team will find such a player in earlier rounds? Can a draft pick play a top-4 minutes role in his career? Can he become a starting goalie?

    Usage stats are again dictated by the HC. An interested, well-informed HC who is highly motivated to get usage right in the short and long term, given his options. Usage isn’t a perfect guide to player quality. But, in the case of defensemen and goalies, all of the other stats are too influenced by the performance of teammates; they don’t repeat the way that Pts/GP does for forwards. The between season correlation of TOI/GP for defensemen is usually around 0.8 or higher. Defensemen end up with roles. HC’s make consistent choices given their options. (Haven’t checked the GP angle with goalies yet, going on a hunch for now.)

    I understand and agree with all of that. I simply meant that sometimes a dman gets played more than he would if the HC had better options available and the opposite, of course, where guys are underused because they are blocked by better players.

    These things need context that can’t be gleaned just by numbers even if they are the best we have whereas Pts/GP gives a pretty clear picture even without context.

    Anyway, thanks again for your work. I have high hopes that AA is going to give Tippett another top 6 forward to work with.

  72. PennersPancakes says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Yeah, he strikes me as a solid later round pick that could potentially step right into the AHL.

    As for Nattinen, he strikes me as a great bet to add to the forward group. I recall checking on him a few months back, but it hadn’t occurred to me that he was a FA free from Ducks control. Good catch!

    Gotta imagine being young and one of the top players in a league will garner him some attention but that would be a smart signing. I remember the ducks having issues with him in the AHL but I wonder if he got a 1 way contract if he would be willing to start in Bakersfield to get adjusted to NA.

    Think hes always been a strong skater and accountable in his own end, hope Holland can entice him over. If he asks Nygard/Haas/Persson youd have to think they were treated with respect and of course Holland has a long Euro history with Detroit. Would love for him to be in the Oil bottom six.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    Darth Tu: I’m fine with that – $3 M per year straight to UFA.If he blows it out of the water I guess we’re paying, but if he tanks then at least it’s not a complete overpay for years and/or a buyout.

    What’s the compromise line? 3/4 years at $3.5 million?

    If Holland thought AA was simply a position holder he would not have given up two second round draft choices for him. My best guess is that he will want to buy two UFA years when the price for same is at its lowest. Depending on the thinking coming out of the pandemic we can’t be sure what that figure might be. It could be as low as three million per year but my guess is they sign him for four years at 3.5. This leaves ample time for AA retirement contract while still allowing Holland a value contract (depending on performance) for four years. Given the opportunity to play on one of the two top lines AA will have little problem putting up the numbers that would make him attractive to other teams. A one year contract would be admission that trading for him was a mistake and a two year contract is just bad business in my opinion.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo:
    Time to start the playoffs

    https://regenexx.com/blog/did-our-coronavirus-shutdown-work-yes-and-no/

    MDs like this are incredibly dangerous at this time. They give credibility to very bogus theories which 99% of the medical community rolls their eyes at.
    Because an orthopedic specialist knows about infectious diseases about as much as the general population
    I’m surprised that for a nominal fee he is not offering stem cell injections to cure the Covid

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    We have talked a bit in the last while about the regional TV deals not being fulfilled and rolling in to next year.

    Well, John Shannon with an interesting tidbit today that I think relates to the point above re: regional TV deals.

    He mentioned that the play-in round games would not all be shown on national TV and many of them will be shown on regional networks.

    We knew that they stretched the “play-in” to include teams 21-24 to get certain markets in due to revenue matters, and fair enough, but this might provide a little additional intel in to how important that is.

    If they can appease these networks via some regional games that leads to NOT rolling over any of the regional deals in to next season, that is a big revenue bump for the NHL.

    We knew it was revenue related but this might show how material having MTL, NYR and CHI are in this regard.

  76. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    interesting. They have to make some $$, some how. So adding 3 of the biggest T.V. markets is one way to do it …

    do you think those games would be on regional and a ppv basis?

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    bsmart:
    I think mostly everyone in the hockey media agrees that Bob McKenzie rankings of first round prospects are beyond solid given that he speaks to NHL scouts directly to make his rankings. Before the 2018/2019 season started check out Bob’s preseason NHL draft rankings here:

    https://www.tsn.ca/hughes-leads-the-pack-in-tsn-hockey-s-pre-season-draft-ranking-1.1172382

    # 7 and #8 were highly regarded by multiple NHL teams

    A point of clarification, I think – McKenzie doesn’t rank the prospects himself (with information from the scouts) – he basically aggregates the rankings of the scouts in to a “consensus” – he get their lists (10-12 teams) and aggregates.

    Not a big deal but, unless I’m wrong, Bobby Mak doesn’t really opinie on the prospects himself.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: and what a festive gift it will be!

    I’m actually quite happy with a shortened season for next year – the last lockout year was a blast in terms of the hockey delivered.

    I think they still plan on a full 82 game season – league has stated they can start as late as around Christmas and still get 82 games and a full playoff in by mid-July (to be completed at least a week before the Olympics).

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: I’m fine with that – $3 M per year straight to UFA.If he blows it out of the water I guess we’re paying, but if he tanks then at least it’s not a complete overpay for years and/or a buyout.

    What’s the compromise line? 3/4 years at $3.5 million?

    How about one year at $3M, his qualifying offer?

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Side note while I have the Liiga up and mentioned:

    Niemelainen’s TOI/gm jumped from 13:47/gm with HPK last season to 19:46/gm with Assat last season. That was second on his team.

    Also, undrafted, 20 yr old rookie RD Axel Rindell had a pretty solid rookie season in the Liiga with 22 pts and 225 SOG in 47 games while playing 18:18/gm. He was on one of the worst teams in the league, but his offense is very impressive.

    Scott Howson has mentioned a few times in 2020 the progress that Niemelainen showed over this past season – a big jump in his development, from accounts.

  81. Harpers Hair says:

    And the Covid class action lawsuits against senior care facilities begin.

    https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5584098?__twitter_impression=true

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: If Holland thought AA was simply a position holder he would not have given up two second round draft choices for him. My best guess is that he will want to buy two UFA years when the price for same is at its lowest. Depending on the thinking coming out of the pandemic we can’t be sure what that figure might be. It could be as low as three million per year but my guess is they sign him for four years at 3.5. This leaves ample time for AA retirement contract while still allowing Holland a value contract (depending on performance) for four years. Given the opportunity to play on one of the two top lines AA will have little problem putting up the numbers that would make him attractive to other teams. A one year contract would be admission that trading for him was a mistake and a two year contract is just bad business in my opinion.

    Why would a one-year contract be an admission of a mistake? The player would still be an RFA at the end of the contract.

    The Kasian contract for an RFA coming off a poor year (with two years of team control) is a bit too much risk I think.

    I like AA and I think the acquisition cost was not cheap but in line. I think he can be part of the winning future on this team but it may be in a middle 6 or third line role (as a skill player in a depth scoring role).

    The playoffs may give us more information.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    interesting.They have to make some $$, some how.So adding 3 of the biggest T.V. markets is one way to do it …

    do you think those games would be on regional and a ppv basis?

    We knew (with all but official certainty), that the league was stretching to add those three teams in the name of revenue (and I understood that and was fine with that) but the fact that some games will be show regionally buts it in even more perspective for me re: how material the extra revenue will be.

    Fulfilling some of the regional network deals is massive.

    No, I don’t imagine there will be PPV for the regional games – could be wrong for sure though.

  84. Rondo says:

    leadfarmer,

    Look at the math, #’s are going down everywhere and going down where countries have opened up. Surprises me this is a math centered blog, and yet.

    Fear is a strong drug .

  85. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: We knew (with all but official certainty), that the league was stretching to add those three teams in the name of revenue (and I understood that and was fine with that) but the fact that some games will be show regionally buts it in even more perspective for me re: how material the extra revenue will be.

    Fulfilling some of the regional network deals is massive.

    No, I don’t imagine there will be PPV for the regional games – could be wrong for sure though.

    Of course these won’t be PPV games.

    Subscribers already pay extra for regional sports networks.

    I explained all this two weeks ago.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    We knew that this Return to Play format that the NHLPA executive voted to approve was just one step, just the format of play, and then there were countless logistical issues to be negotiated and determined.

    Michael Russo spoke with Dubnyk (a long-time NHLPA exec) and Dubnyk confirmed how much more work needs to be done and how many issues need to be solved:

    “I think it’s really important to start having these conversations with as many players as we can about, ‘Guys, what scenarios are we OK with?’” Dubnyk said. “From what it sounds like, it’s going to be some sort of hub city scenario, so we’ve got to talk about that. How long are guys OK with being away for? When we are in this city, are we locked in our hotel room? Going from the hotel room to the rink and back only, are guys OK with just doing that? Can our families come with us, or if there’s a family emergency and we leave the bubble (to go back into society), can we return to the bubble or are we done? What’s the food situation? Like, can we only eat in our hotel rooms? How often are we tested? Who pays for that? What’s the damage economically to the sport?

    https://theathletic.com/1835486/2020/05/25/misunderstood-nhlpa-vote-many-hurdles-remain-before-next-vote-on-return-to-play/

    Importantly, Dubnyk said there would absolutely be another vote and this may be all 700 players, not just the 31 execs.

  87. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    PennersPancakes: Gotta imagine being young and one of the top players in a league will garner him some attention but that would be a smart signing. I remember the ducks having issues with him in the AHL but I wonder if he got a 1 way contract if he would be willing to start in Bakersfield to get adjusted to NA.

    Think hes always been a strong skater and accountable in his own end, hope Holland can entice him over. If he asks Nygard/Haas/Persson youd have to think they were treated with respect and of course Holland has a long Euro history with Detroit. Would love for him to be in the Oil bottom six.

    I agree our recent signings of Haas, Nygard and even Persson (to a lesser degree) lend themselves to improve the external perception of the Oilers among Euro UFAs. I’d be curious to know how the team’s treatment of them has counterbalanced any negative impressions the Puljujarvi situation might’ve built up. He’ll obviously have a lot of suitors, though.

    I’d love to see a Puljujarvi (and some cap) for Lehkonen trade alongside a Nattinen (listed as RW in the Liiga) signing to help add boost the team’s offense. Wouldn’t fix the C issue, but it would set up some great competition for bottom-6 Ws. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Lehkonen even push AA for top-6 time. However, with Ennis already in-house, we might be maxed out on cheap Ws- barring a Neal CBO.

  88. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar: Scott Howson has mentioned a few times in 2020 the progress that Niemelainen showed over this past season – a big jump in his development, from accounts.

    I’ll be very curious to see if/how that improvement translates to NA. His consistent lack of offense doesn’t instill confidence as any long term solution, but maybe he can fill a niche in the AHL.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo:
    leadfarmer,

    Look atthe math, #’s are going down everywhere and going down where countries have opened up. Surprises me this is a math centered blog, and yet.

    Fear is a strong drug .

    Random guy with a you tube channel is not science or math
    We have to open up and there’s no doubt about it
    But people are confusing opinion and science and they are two different things
    The link you posted is a guy peddling his opinion as science pretending to be a scientist which he is not.
    You want science on a cancer ask an oncologist, you want science on a infectious agent ask aninfectious disease doc, don’t ask an fringe stem cell for cash injection guy

    But there is this stupid macho Attitude that is going around that the governor of North Dakota addressed very well last week. It’s not about being scared, it’s about not being stupid
    There isn’t a person alive that wouldn’t like to go back to how things were

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have mentioned a few times over the last few months that noone seems to be talking about the potential visa issues for players on expiring contracts (as the athlete type visa expires with the contract generally).

    Another beauty in The Athletic with information on the visa issue and the league has been dealing with it for months now in anticipation of many visas expiring on June 30.

    https://theathletic.com/1834660/2020/05/25/how-the-nhl-handles-immigration-and-what-it-means-for-the-return-to-play-plan/

    For US visas, In order to get the P-1A visa there is the requirement that the applicant is an exceptional athlete coming to work in the United States.

    The NHL and NHLPA are working on a document that will officially extend expiring contracts to the end of the 2019-20 season instead of June 30, according to The Athletic’s Michael Russo. That should be enough proof to extend visas for international players.

    ———————

    Immigration departments will have the proof they need to extend visas but I “fear” there will still be blips – probably another reason to not start playing until close to August.

  91. Rondo says:

    leadfarmer,

    We will see who is right. But that article was about the CDC numbers you just didn’t like the answer.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course these won’t be PPV games.

    Subscribers already pay extra for regional sports networks.

    I explained all this two weeks ago.

    I’m not the one that asked about PPV games and I said I wouldn’t think so.

    You are responding to the wrong person.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’ll be very curious to see if/how that improvement translates to NA. His consistent lack of offense doesn’t instill confidence as any long term solution, but maybe he can fill a niche in the AHL.

    I would think he’ll be sheltered very well to start his Condors’ career behind Lennstrom and Sammy at least.

    I’m not concerned about his offence – if he ever makes it to the NHL, it will be on the back of his size/skating and ability to defend with Smid level offence.

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo:
    leadfarmer,

    We will see who is right. But that article was about the CDC numbers you just didn’t like the answer.

    Unless you are planning to move out every US city with a metro area greater than Columbus Ohio Sweden is a terrible comparison population wise and demographic wise

  95. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not the one that asked about PPV games and I said I wouldn’t think so.

    You are responding to the wrong person.

    That was me.

    Wondering if the MTL is broadcast regional will we be able to watch it out west?

    Or if NYR is only on MSG, we will get it?

    That was all.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: That was me.

    Wondering if the MTL is broadcast regional will we be able to watch it out west?

    Or if NYR is only on MSG, we will get it?

    That was all.

    I expect it will be some sort of hybrid.

    Both Sportsnet and TSN have regular season regional rights to Toronto, Montreal, and Winnipeg games while Sportsnet has all the rights to Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver games.

    In the US, NBC has rights to national games but regional networks like MSG and Fox have rights to local games.

    I would imagine the play in games of the top teams will be national and perhaps the first round best of five series would be considered regional.

    Once the 16 teams are decided, one would assume the normal rights would apply with Sportsnet getting all the games involving Canadian teams on SN, CBC, City etc.

    In the US, the national NBC contract would apply.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, I would agree that is likely how it will work.

    The regional broadcasts will only be for the “play-in round” to fulfill some contractual obligations prior to the playoffs starting.

  98. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: That was me.

    Wondering if the MTL is broadcast regional will we be able to watch it out west?

    Or if NYR is only on MSG, we will get it?

    That was all.

    Just a further note…I cut the cord a few months ago and, to watch the rest of the season, subscribed to Sportsnet Now + which provides access to virtually all games without blackouts.

    I have it running on Apple TV but it’s available on a variety of platforms for $28/month which is a pretty good deal for the playoffs.

    https://secure.snnow.ca/pricing

  99. Darth Tu says:

    pts2pndr: If Holland thought AA was simply a position holder he would not have given up two second round draft choices for him. My best guess is that he will want to buy two UFA years when the price for same is at its lowest. Depending on the thinking coming out of the pandemic we can’t be sure what that figure might be. It could be as low as three million per year but my guess is they sign him for four years at 3.5. This leaves ample time for AA retirement contract while still allowing Holland a value contract (depending on performance) for four years. Given the opportunity to play on one of the two top lines AA will have little problem putting up the numbers that would make him attractive to other teams. A one year contract would be admission that trading for him was a mistake and a two year contract is just bad business in my opinion.

    I’m more in your camp than the one year at $3 Mill option. Even with the uncertainty of a second round pick amounting to a NHL scoring player, giving up 2 years selections in that round seems like a lot to let a guy walk after 1 and a bit seasons.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: I’m more in your camp than the one year at $3 Mill option.Even with the uncertainty of a second round pick amounting to a NHL scoring player, giving up 2 years selections in that round seems like a lot to let a guy walk after 1 and a bit seasons.

    There are two years left of team control.

    If he signs a one-year deal, he’ll be an RFA at its expiry.

  101. jp says:

    Lots of AA talk today. I agree he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Also that he was a good pickup by Holland with a chance to be huge value.

    In terms of his next contract I’d be amazed if it’s anything other than a 1 year deal for $3M-$3.25M.

    He held out in 2017 coming off a 29 point season and he’s had a 30 goal season since. He won’t be taking a deal for 1 year or any term below his QO. And he won’t be taking anything with multi-year term for $3M or $3.25M or $3.5M, pretty sure.

    1 year is really the only play IMO.

  102. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    A one year contract in my opinion is counter productive. You want your player concentrating on playing hockey. On a one year deal you are forcing him to play for his next contract and this is not necessarily what is best for the team. Forcing an individual on a team to meet individual goals does not help with team chemistry. It might make good financial sense but I am of the belief that a player requires a certain degree of security to perform at his peak.

  103. Ribs says:

    leadfarmer: MDs like this are incredibly dangerous at this time.They give credibility to very bogus theories which 99% of the medical community rolls their eyes at.
    Because an orthopedic specialist knows about infectious diseases about as much as the general population
    I’m surprised that for a nominal fee he is not offering stem cell injections to cure the Covid

    My brain hurts from trying to read the nonsense in that link. Pure recklessness.

  104. Ribs says:

    Georges: Highlights on YT:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3CWJpEcrq0

    That’s a pretty wild 6 minute ride! I hope we get to see that kind of speed from AA when play resumes. There appeared to be a lot of uncontested and flukey goals in that package, but his speed and hands are undeniably superb.

    I do wonder if he fares better with Draisatl than McDavid in the long run. Drai’s passing game should match up well with AA’s ability to dart into scoring positions at super speed!

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georges:
    The thing is, AA doesn’t lack natural talent. How do we know?

    Highlights on YT:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3CWJpEcrq0

    Not a lot of players with 6 minute single season reels. Very high wows per 60.

    His career Pts/GP is 0.51. Not a lot of forwards reach the 0.5 Pts/GP career mark.

    He’s scoring 0.47 Pts/GP this year. Not a lot of forwards score at near top 6 rates in a “disappointing” year as per Bruce in the Journal.

    AA was available probably because of his league worst +/-. Or maybe it was a DET special that only Holland had access to. Two second round picks is a super cheap price.

    In 2019-20, 21 second round forward picks scored at a 0.5 Pts/GP rate or better. 16 of them were selected in drafts between 2009 and 2016. There were 146 forwards selected in the second round over that time. Which puts the odds of finding top-6 scoring rates from a second round pick at about 11% or 1 in 9.

    That means that if you pick forwards in the second round 9 times, you’re going to expect to find AA level scoring just once. Yzerman has about a 20% chance of converting those two second round picks into an AA if he spends them both on forwards. DET made available a very good player because their team was having a fantastically horrible season after a poor stretch of seasons. We’ve been on the giving end of those transactions and, thanks to Holland and his relationship with the team and the player, we were finally on the receiving end.

    Folks, seriously, it is very, very hard to find skaters like AA in the second round. Do the exercise yourselves. It’s eye-opening. But we don’t have to worry about finding an AA in the second round… yAAy!!

    Bruce calls AA’s 2019-20 season poor and disappointing. I see why with the awful +/-. But that was on an awful team, so sucks for them. Not sure why Bruce takes issue with AA’s offense. Per above, his scoring rate was pretty close to his career mark (top-6) at the time of the trade. Weird.

    Tippett is playing AA outside of our top 6. Naturally that will suppress his scoring, particularly with how much our bottom 6 struggles to put up offense. Good players need to play with good players. Tippett really tries to find the best in his players. So it’s a matter of patience.

    Happily, there’s a lot of good to find in AA.

    Thanks for putting clarity on this G.

    After the first round picks are low value. Don’t trade firsts or give away players that were firsts, and you’re golden.

    Picks are necessary to stick the system but there are other ways to get low chance of being impact players.

    I’ve never been fond of games played as a measure of success. 100 mediocre games is not doing much for the team IMO.

    Which goes to your point about being heavily invested in development. Do something intentional with these young players and get the most out of them. In the world in any industry the number of brilliant self starters is low, and that’s without incorporating good luck and opportunity.

    Which is why to me you should never draft players with fundamental flaws. It takes very low odds and tanks them further. One caveat would be exceptional skill. Lacking a bit in speed or size is offset by unusual skill. But without that type of skill spend the puck on players with all of the typical positive attributes that hasn’t put it all together yet.

    Such as McLeod. That size and speed, has ability, if he wants it and they help him enough he could be an exceptional mid roster player.

    I also get the Broberg pick for that reason, and Holland said as much when he chose him. D with that level of skating, 6’3, skilled and defensively aware? The upside is so high especially given he’s a D I get the risk of passing some potentially good forwards.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    OriginalPouzar,

    A one year contract in my opinion is counter productive. You want your player concentrating on playing hockey. On a one year deal you are forcing him to play for his next contract and this is not necessarily what is best for the team. Forcing an individual on a team to meet individual goals does not help with team chemistry. It might make good financial sense but I am of the belief that a player requires a certain degree of security to perform at his peak.

    Fair enough but there is also the counter where players are known to have some of their best years in contract years – look at Zack Kassian – his two best years as an Oiler were contract years.

    There is risk with anything longer than a 1 year contract with this player. 2 years walks him to UFA and buys no UFA years and anything longer is, well, a long term contract with a player that, while he has solid potential and some pedigree, has warts, is coming off a very poor year and we don’t know how or where he fits on the team.

    The play-in plus playoffs after a short training camp may provide more info but, right now, I think one year is best.

  107. Rondo says:

    leadfarmer,

    I understand you’re in fear. But look at the #’s

    https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1265335319978627072

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