On the day he was drafted, I wrote about Leon Draisaitl “we should expect a quality center for a decade and then a half of one beyond it. We should expect Jason Arnott’s career numbers. We should expect a helluva player. Big, strong bull of a center who doesn’t look one damn thing like the other forwards who have been taken high in previous seasons. McCurdy called him a nose tackle today, and with those hands, if he can keep up, music!”
For once, this blog’s author was shy on the hyperbole and fell short of Leon Draisaitl’s outer marker. What a hockey player.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We rallied and regrouped’: How the Oilers won the 1990 Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto represents ‘Money Puck’ value for NHL teams
- Lowetide: Exploring hidden-gem draft options for the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He set his place in history’: On Bill Ranford’s Conn Smythe run, 30 years later
- Jonathan Willis: Why NHL teams should gamble on defencemen over forwards later in the draft
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ offseason decisions will be influenced by 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland’s likely approach to the Oilers’ offseason goalie question
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland should shop for picks at the draft
- Lowetide: Exploring Oilers prospect Ryan McLeod’s possible NHL path
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ales Hemsky on his health, alumni games, tough opponents and the Oilers’ stars
- Lowetide: Swedish export Noel Gunler offers Oilers a worthy draft target
RED LINE ON LEON
Huge German centre is tenacious in puck pursuit with his relentless forecheck often creating chances for linemates. Dominates the game down low with outstanding puck protection. Constantly outthinks the opposition and knows where his outlets are at all times. Has learned to use his size to carve out space for himself and effectively separate opponents from the puck. Strong hockey sense in all three zones leads to good positioning. Traditional playmaking centre finds ‘mates with crisp, accurate passes. Intelligent, two-way, classically schooled centre. Outshone Reinhart in head-to-head action against Kootenay.
Oilers Art Ross Winners: Gretzky (7), McDavid (2), Draisaitl (1)
One of the real joys of the last five years has been watching the big man emerge as an impact player. I used to compare him to Peter Mahovlich because I dared not mentioned he-who-should-not-be-named, even though Leon’s visual resembled what my Dad would say about the electric center. Leon Draisaitl sailed past expectations and kept rising. The Oilers have rarely gotten it more right than they did on draft day 2014. Well done, Mr. MacTavish, Mr. MacGregor, Mr. Green.
OILERS 2019-20
I like this Edmonton group but expecting an easy road against Chicago would be a bad idea. For one, Edmonton’s special teams have been dominant, and referees often put away the whistle in the playoffs. Edmonton has more foot speed than a year ago, but the ‘Hawks can make you pay if the checking isn’t tight. The biggest issue: At five on five, this is a closer contest. More in a minute.
A roster that is in a period of transition, but the strengths (Kane, Crawford, Toews, DeBrincat, Kubalik) are substantial. Oilers will need to play well from the opening whistle. The biggest weakness on either side would appear to be the Chicago defense.
Good to great skaters on both sides, true franchise performers like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Kane. Jonathan Toews at 32 is enjoying a mid-career resurgence and he can certainly hurt the Oilers in this series.
- Even Strength Goals Per Game: Chicago 2.87, Edmonton 2.66
- Even Strength GA Per Game: Chicago 2.87, Edmonton 2.88
- Even Strength Goal Differential: Chicago 169-169, Edmonton 160-173
- Power Play Goal Differential: Chicago 33-8, Edmonton 59-10
- Penalty Kill Goal Differential: Chicago 6-37, Edmonton 3-31
- Special teams Goal Differential: Chicago 39-45, Edmonton 62-41
- Even strength save percentage: Chicago .918, Edmonton .908
Draft Lottery
I hope you’ve read the rules already because I’m not giving them to you. Long story short: Ottawa has a good chance at Lafreniere, Yzerman probably yelled at someone between last night and this morning, the Oilers could win the bleeding lottery if they lose to Chicago. If the team loses in that play-in, the worst draft position would be No. 15 overall. Moving up five spots in this draft is a big damned deal.
This is a fairly brazen ask from the NHL. Canada (Alberta) has imposed a two-week quarantine for new arrivals and it’s been working. The NHL wants to ignore that rule but it’s been part of the arsenal our government has been using to protect us. Brazen.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning with interesting people, TSN 1260 beginning at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will talk Leon Draisaitl and make sense of the playoff and lottery formats. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will also have a lash at the NHL playoffs, giving us an idea about how bettors are approaching the Oilers-‘Hawks series, plus KBO trends and teams that are worth a look. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s hammer time!
Good catch! Draft proceedings happening before or during the playoffs really puts a cramp on that plan.
This may not necessarily be true – it hasn’t yet been officially determined if they are going bracket style or re-seeding.
New for @TheAthleticEDM
Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft, and an ‘ideal pick’ for Edmonton in each round. Free 90-day trial continues, just click on the link
https://theathletic.com/1837922/2020/05/28/lowetide-oilers-greatest-areas-of-need-for-the-2020-draft/
Georges,
I’m probably reading the numbers wrong but the higher rate of penalties drawn vs. the lower number for penalties taken. Or am I parsing the data incorrectly?
hunter1909,
I see. You’d prefer McDavid to continue getting fouled every game, uncalled to the point of being molested. So that borderline dirty actors like Doughty can take liberties with our Captain and laugh about it on the bench. Or Benning to take more cheap shots by known predators (E Kane), Davidson’s career basically ruined by Turtle’s slewfoot.
Seems legit.
I personally would like to see some retribution from our own players if the refs don’t call the rule book. Something I would have figured a dinosaur like you would appreciate.
Thanks.
Publicly at least Daly has been saying the 14 days is a problem if that means self quarantine (vs. the team quarantine that Dr. H and JK are pushing Ottawa on.)
I think the NHL will. avoid the border entirely and that’s fine. Push for no
14 day quarantinee would not be fine.
Draft Shmaft. We’ll be talking LOTTERY, BABY!
Actually, I was implying the pressure from the premier was directed at the feds but that the proposal by the NHL seemed to put both levels of government in a spot. I understand why a provincial government would publicly pressure Ottawa, that’s just good business. The surprise, for me, is that the NHL doesn’t view the two weeks of quarantine as a good idea. After all, it’s been successful in Alberta, one would think the NHL might incorporate it in their plan.
Oilers possess the best 1-2 punch in hockey, and you’re whining about not getting more penalties?
Respectful advice: In future, please leave this kind of nonsense where it belongs on the Vancouver Canucks “we failed’ board lol
See “Harpers Hair” for more info
I don’t think the Oilers got screwed at all. If they can’t beat the Hawks, they don’t deserve to move on, and they get a top 15 for the trouble!!! If they win, they face the team that performed the worst out of the top four. I’ll take that any day.
LT.
Very much appreciate that you downplay the politics that folks get so worked up about. Some of your radio comments today left the impression that the Premier and Dr. Hinshaw are an a different page about keeping the 14 day quarantine that have served us so well. AB and BC started these together the same day before the rest of Canada and have stricter requirements for viable isolation plans at arrival
If you had the opportunity to read Dr. Hinshaw’s letter to the NHL and the Premier’s letter to the PM you’d have seen that both letters were about Dr. Hinshaw’s plan to preserve the 14 day quarantine AND allow players can serve the quarantine as a team cohorts rather than in self-quarantine. Dr. Hinshaw also addressed the premier’s letter in a note to Ryan Rishaug today.
All of this is on Rishaug’s blog, but maybe even better to get him on your show. Cheers!
Georges,
Also, why does the penalties drawn vs penalties taken seem to skew in favour of penalties drawn overall? Is that an artifact of ‘regular’ players taking advantage of those who play fewer than 20 games per season (IE those with less skill/experience)?
Otherwise I’d think it should roughly balance out in the aggregate, no?
Hah.
Accused of Dys Fandom (or Trolldom if you don’t actually like the Dys). I can see how that feels like a drive by attack.
Actually your daily driveby habit here turned into something far more pleasant when you talk up your local team. No shame in that.
Saying today what I said in November. The Dys look suits you just fine for better or worse rest of the year.
Georges,
This is some deft work. Really, thank you.
But in your work today I /still/ don’t see why Connor doesn’t draw more penalties. Even, say, half what he deserves. Look at how few penalties the Oilers draw, year over year. It’s plain to see it’s a thing. We’re getting gypped.
It’s the Oilers way!
They can’t do that because the Oilers 2021 3rd round pick is conditionally pledged to Detroit for Mike Green
Detroit receives the Oilers 2020 4th round pick, but it is upgraded to their 2021 3rd if the Oilers reach the 2020 Western Conference Finals and Green plays 50% of the games.
Unfortunately, at this time, I am unable to respond to drive by shootings.
..and a top 15 pick..!!
/justkidding
Not if the opposing goalie gets hot….
I agree but if Crawford steals a game or two we’re talking draft again.
Playing in an actual playoff series of best of five is preferable to being in the round robin, if one has a pair of aces in the hole.
A playoff series focuses the mind faster.
With the regular season over, it”s interesting that RNH had a career best points per game, but still didn’t reach 50 points. Maybe next year.
Wow the Wild are getting screwed. Not only they can’t sign Kaprizov for this year but since the season will likely start late he is not going to come over for next season either.
Oilers got screwed it could have easily been the top 2 teams in each division getting the bye. Any team can win in the best of five. I think the biggest factor will be no fans and how it will effect the energy players, there’s a lot of players that feed off the crowd, it’s going to take the first round to get used to the no crowd.
Teams are not allowed as of right now to sign for the current season
You constantly tell the world(Lowetide blog) that you’re a lawyer. Therefore, you have no business telling others to stop talking about something that you yourself actively promote.
Maybe some crafty lawyers through in Pandemic coverage in the fine fine print something like lucky Larry in New York.
I can tell you have never conducted business. Not honest to goodness manufacturing/distribution business, because if you had, you would know there are people out there who happily will cancel contracts based on any bloody technical excuse and there’s really not a lot you can do about it.
PS: With the probable upcoming massive downturn in the world’s economy, you will be seeing this sort of thing a lot more in the immediate future as businesses desperately try to stay afloat, former business partners/associates be damned.
Kind of like when Clarence Boddicker busts in on Bob Morton from Omni Consumer Products? And Morton’s entertaining guests?
Taking away the KHL season being cancelled, his KHL contract expired at the end of April so they could sign him now. It would be a 2-year ELC max I think due to his age and I’m not sure if they want to burn year 1 by having him play…..
Try which team you posted on incessantly in October, November, December, January, February and March. We can get the odds anywhere. This year what we got from your was Dys fandom and/or Dys trolldom. You’re not Switzerland around here anymore. You’ve been marked as all in for months so enjoy the upside or downside.
Of course they were gunning for the playoffs and JT Miller is worth more than a middling first round pick.
Of course this has ZERO to do with how I expected the standings to end up.
So the team most likely to be upset during the play-in is the Vancouver Canucks.
Do we know if Kaprizov is allowed to come over and play yet.
Georges,
I suppose this data set lends itself to the notion that drawing penalties is in and of itself a skill.
But I wonder why some players are viewed in one way (IE Evander Kane, Perron, Marchand, Dustin Brown, Turtle) and others are viewed in a different light (IE Crosby, Malkin, Ovi).
For instance, it’s no secret that players of the first cohort I listed play with an edge but the other three aren’t afraid to muck it up either. Crosby has had some vicious moments worthy of suspension that didn’t even get penalized. Mark Methot’s thumb comes to mind, or when he chopped a guy between the legs from behind.
Maybe it’s success, but Perron, Marchand and Brown have all won Cups.
Intent and frequency of borderline plays, perhaps?
Oh, and, plus/minus is the only stat that basically accounts for every variable (salary, generally; most common level of competition; line mates etc). It’s the long lost best stat for relative comparisons of players.
I have no idea what this means. The post says “If the rumour mill is correct”.
There have been days and days of speculation here that the reason Montreal and Chicago are in the playoff round is because of regional contracts that needed to be fulfilled in order to avoid a penalty for failing to finish the season. I assumed everybody could make that jump.
Given how you are a stickler for the minutiae normally I’m just surprised
I’m saying it as a reasonable person – feel free to keep my profession out of conversation.
Yes, a season not finishing because the league shut down due to pandemic is different that a player refusing to play due to trade demands or missing games because of injury – I’m not sure how an unbiased person does not see this.
Neal had returned to the lineup.
I recall you bringing up Brown’s “ability” to draw penalties year after year when I wondered if drawing penalties was a repeatable skill for the non-elite (vis-a-vis Gaetan Haas).
Yes, point 2 is essentially what I’ve been reading for a while now – in various different places (including Staples at CoH – based on PPG stats), the first round is very deep with high producing forwards – its a perfect draft for the Oilers to pick where they are scheduled (20th).
Grabbing a 2nd round pick would be great if the cost is reasonable.
We know for certainty that Holland wants to add picks – he’s said it – he says he’s owes it to the scouts!
Totally fine with locking down NHL players and Toronto media here or elsewhere while we enjoy our Edmonton summer. We have less than a case a day in Edmonton and really like that.
Before covid spread overwhelms hospitals it will overwhelm consumer confidence to patronize businesses other than grocery stores. Like it did in March. We never had stay at home orders here, but we did have massive reductions in economic activity BEFORE public health orders.
AB and BC need international tourism, large scale events or anything else that interrupts low disease levels and returning day to day business and consumer confidence like we need holes in our heads. Sorry any Tier 1 fans on the blog, but enjoy the back of the bus for a while and invest any money you save in pharma shares.
Why would they give up their first if they aren’t gunning for the playoffs?
have to give this answer a Fail. a specific contract?
It was my first post on the subject today so this is just me copying and pasting it.
————————————-
If the rumour mill is correct the league has found itself in the position of accommodating various TV networks because clever lawyers inserted clauses covering situations that might interfere with the full completion of the season.
I would argue on behalf of the Oilers that given that precedent in league business affairs any contract between teams which failed to specifically identify such a possibility has abrogated their right to seek redress since such a clause was known to exist and be in use.
Not sure where this is coming from.
I predicted the Canucks would miss the playoffs.
They said looking at. Not travelling anywhere before Gary announces sites.
Matti put up 20 goals in 1980 and 21 in 1981 he was a good fit for Anderson and Messier. March 21 1980 JR-Ewing ( Larry Hagman ) was shot in the final episode of year 3 which started the catch phase Who Shot JR globally, I even think Vegas had odds on the correct suspect. It wasn’t till the following 4th episode of year 4 mostly due to a contract dispute that Hagman had with the network before they revealed that it was his mistress Kristen Shepard (Mary Crosby) who was guilty of the shooting. 83 million out of 226 million viewers watched the episode. Anytime I here Hagman or Dallas I instantly think of the prick JR Ewing that you had to love to hate.
Is there??
As a lawyer are you saying is there??
Because clearly games cancelled due to pandemic should be different than games cancelled due to a self induced issue like a trade dispute and the teams shouldn’t owe tv networks anything.
Also Neal didn’t make 21 goals predominantly because of injury and not the pandemic although the pandemic put the nail in the coffin. Neal has 0goals in last 10 games