During the period where I write about the draft, a theme arises out of the mist. Several emails, comments, tweets remind me that drafting someone in 2020 will be of no help for many years. Very true. Building through the draft is the worst possible approach. Except for all the others.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We rallied and regrouped’: How the Oilers won the 1990 Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto represents ‘Money Puck’ value for NHL teams
- Lowetide: Exploring hidden-gem draft options for the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He set his place in history’: On Bill Ranford’s Conn Smythe run, 30 years later
- Jonathan Willis: Why NHL teams should gamble on defencemen over forwards later in the draft
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ offseason decisions will be influenced by 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland’s likely approach to the Oilers’ offseason goalie question
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland should shop for picks at the draft
- Lowetide: Exploring Oilers prospect Ryan McLeod’s possible NHL path
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ales Hemsky on his health, alumni games, tough opponents and the Oilers’ stars
- Lowetide: Swedish export Noel Gunler offers Oilers a worthy draft target
Speed merchants on the wing
When Ken Holland arrived in Edmonton, he began the process of improving the team in areas that were lagging. Speed was a major priority. He signed Joakim Nygard, Gaetan Haas, drafted Philip Broberg and then acquired Andreas Athanasiou at the deadline. He’s adding speed, for now and the future, as those are things his team needs.
Let’s try this another way. Between 2010 and 2013, the Oilers drafted four right wingers with the potential to fill a scoring role (Tyler Pitlick, Nail Yakupov, Anton Slepyshev, Jackson Houck) for years to come.
Yakupov spent four years (averaged 14.5 goals per 82 games) trying to get the feeling and Anton Slepyshev had moments of clarity. Pitlick made the NHL but as a checker and Houck didn’t sign with the team.
The four picks came in four different rounds and Edmonton had a right to expect at least seven years of scoring from Yakupov, maybe a couple of years on a skill line from Pitlick and Slepyshev. Didn’t work out.
Between 2014 and 2017, Edmonton chose Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamaoto, Ostap Safin and Kirill Maksimov. That’s a lot of riches spent on one position, but Yamamoto’s emergence is one of the most encouraging outcomes in what is truly a baffling decade for right wingers procured through the draft.
Matej Blumel is the only RW drafted in the last two seasons.
Long way to get to this point: When you say “drafting someone in 2020 will be of no help for many years” the only acceptable response is “yes” because it’s obvious.
However, the work of populating the skill RW spots for the 2020-21 season should have come from the 2012-17 draft. It’s insanity that Yakupov and Puljujarvi aren’t 1-2 on the depth chart with Yamamoto pushing.
The 2020 draft is important, because 2025 needs to fed, too. That’s the job.
Immediate need
Between 2010 and 2013, the Oilers drafted left wingers Taylor Hall, Curtis Hamilton, Mitchell Moroz, Jujhar Khaira, Daniil Zharkov and Marco Roy. Based on draft selection, Edmonton had a right to expect seven years of quality from Hall (before free agency) and perhaps a year or two on skill lines from Hamilton. The team traded Hall after six seasons and have been running big enforcer types with skill since then on the portside.
Ken Holland and Dave Tippett added skill on LW in 2019-20, moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over and trading for Andreas Athanasiou. Edmonton also acquired a rental (Tyler Ennis) who looked productive during a short audition.
Why did Holland acquire Athanasiou? Part of the reason comes from poor drafting. Between 2014 and 2017, the Oilers drafted only Tyler Benson and Graham McPhee. Athanasiou’s acquisition was about speed, but also development time for Benson and a lack of solutions drafted in these years. Edmonton stopped drafting left wingers after 2013. Curious.
Bottom line
When people say “a player drafted in 2020 won’t help until 2025” the answer is yes, but that’s not really the conversation we should be having. A more appropriate statement would be “the lack of drafting success, added to fewer selections devoted to left wingers, made the acquisition of Athanasiou necessary. Better drafting in 2020-2023 should mean Edmonton will need fewer trades of this type in the future.”
The argument that a 2020 pick won’t help a team win in the fall of 2020 has been winning arguments on the internet since the halcyon days of hfboards. It shouldn’t be a winning argument in a case of this kind. It is not germane to the subject at hand.
Both 2020 and 2025 are priorities. The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached. It was a good trade for the Oilers, but a painful one all the same.
Why would a good organization fail to draft in 2020 with an eye on 2025? They would not.
Yup.
It some (many) cases, the argument can be made that its beneficial in the medium term for the ELC to not slide and to burn a year as that second contract will come a bit earlier and the player should be cheaper.
3 years from not I presume and anticipate that Bouchard will be very expensive on his 2nd contract, however, with that said, 3 years of this player between $894K and $1.6M (depending on bonuses vested) should be a major value contract for the Oilers and could be a material part in a championship.
..hmmmmm….. is he really the Original?
OP, dude, you spelled your name wrong……
But that’s not the case. NHL definitively stated that play-in stats will be considered playoff scoring, not regular season scoring.
You do realize that Boston is a 1-line team with excellent defense and goaltending, right? There’s a reason they’ve never gone all the way with that setup – no scoring depth.
Bouchard’s ELC slides this year, so the Oilers could well get three inexpensive years out of him. Two-and-a-half is virtually guaranteed.
Since the NHL has definitively said the play-in round is NOT the playoffs, why not let Neal/Lucic goals recorded during the play-in round decide the fate of the pick. If Neal scores 2 more, the Oilers pay. If he doesn’t or Lucic scores more than the set amount then the Oilers keep it. At least games would decide the issue instead of an arbitrary Bettman whim.
Georges,
No matter how you slice it, that’s a heady list of players to compare a late round pick with.
I’m no maths wizard, but intuitively speaking… the chances of either or both of one of two second round picks turning into a Coyle/Smith/Callahan/Smith/Staal/Zibanejad/Rakell/Little are pretty low. No?
OriginalPouzar,
So, about 7/40 years? Give or take?
Georges,
What was wrong with Linus is that was he was a disrespectful rookie.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/sports/hockey/14rookie.html
‘Omark, of the Edmonton Oilers, scored a spectacular shootout goal on Friday in his first N.H.L. game, a 360-degree, pump-fake snap shot between the goalie’s legs. The unconventional showmanship brought Oilers fans to their feet and infuriated the Tampa Bay goalie Dan Ellis and others.
“It’s embarrassing for him,” Ellis said. “You come into a league, a respectful league like this, and you try a little move like that. It’s not a very classy thing. That’s just the kind of person he is.”
Omark’s highlight-show goal has sparked a heated argument across North American hockey, a game rooted in the values of Victorian-era Canada, which regards personal flair and goal celebrations as immodest and contemptuous of opponents.
Some hated it, like Ellis’s teammates Martin St. Louis, who called it “a slap in the face,” and Steven Stamkos, who said he “didn’t think it showed a lot of respect.”’
This was, of course, rather over hyped. LO took his 360 at the centre ice line as he took possession of the puck. If I recall correctly, one Steven Stamkos took a shootout attempt not too long after this event, complete with a 360 at or near the goal line, and scored. Nobody blinked.
Interesting that Craig Smith shows so well, where JGP was the subject of the recent hype-machine. Perhaps OP has been right all along, and he’s the elusive 3C we have been looking for…
Great conversation today.
The potential damage done by these deals is less than the largest of the Canucks numerous boat anchors.
The guy who signed every one of the Canucks ‘balanced’ $3M apiece bottom 6 is still running the show.
The guy who signed Lucic and lead to the Oilers owing Neal is no longer with the Oilers.
Fair?
Pre-injury Sekera was a fantastic d-man and arguably the best Oiler d-man that season through the playoffs. He was worth every penny of that $5.5M per in my opinion.
I wasn’t on board with him being bought out and I still wish Holland would have found another way but, as it turns out, moving the player out and allowing for Bear and Jones to earn their roles on the team, has helped the team.
Nice value contract for Dallas but lets not over-play Sekera this year – in 2020, he’s solidly 3rd pairing (6th on TOI/G) and 2nd pairing PK (with no PP time).
Caleb Jones
Willie Laggeson
Eric Gustaffson
Shawn Horcoff
Josef Baranek
Esa Tikkanen
Yaroslav Pouzar
Not sure what Eriksson has to do with Chiasson, Kassian and Sekera but just a reminder that the Oilers have their own Eriksson and he’s about to turn 33.
James Neal has three additional years remaining on his contract…Eriksson has two.
Even if these are bad value (that’s not clear) they’re still small beans.
Both players cost less than Eriksson as a for instance. And Kassian will be younger when his deal ends than Eriksson is now…
Georges,
Curious about the reasoning/data behind this comment of yours where you seem to prefer KRusty over the Turd Polisher:
“I didn’t think that much of pre-injury Sekera, particularly when compared to Russell.”
Harpers Hair,
That is such an apt description of that … shit hole, it defies discrepancy.
I left my hometown for many a reason, and that’s a pungent parallel on par.
Georges,
Tangential question I know, but AA was a 4th round pick at 110 overall. We’re comparing him to what we paid to acquire him (which is fair). But what are the chances of finding a player of his ilk in the fourth round?
AA, Josh Anderson, and Jacob Slavin all came from the same fourth round of 2012 which is touted to be a particularly weak draft year by many. I don’t know what it means, just that I find the point interesting.
It is true that not much has been received from the goalie picks during that time but there is still lots of yard left to go. I mean Wells is 22 and Skinner 21, both on their ELCs. We know the general time frame with goalies and that many pop nearing their mid-20s and even later.
Rodrigue and Konovalov were both regarded among the top goalies in their draft classes and Rodrigue had a great draft plus 1 season.
No sure things for sure but still lots of road ahead.
Great analysis…so many unforced errors.
But I’m not sure the bleeding has been staunched.
The Chiasson and Kassian contracts and buying out Sekera look like more of the same.
OriginalPouzar,
A club will not be deemed to have made the playoffs unless they reach the round of 16, but all individual and club stats/points from hereon out are considered playoff points.
Okay then, NHL.
Have been to both numerous times but my most “memorable” visit was the time I had to take a leak.
Stopped at one of the gas stations and upon entering the washroom I discovered someone had taken a dump in the sink.
Welcome to Red Deer!
Harpers Hair,
Featuring The Donut Mill and Glenn’s (I’d hope).
I worry about Connors wide open style and potential injury, and I don’t see him slowing down which is why we love him.
I also enjoy your draft posts.
I would throw in the referee who didn’t help.
Nope, not overly concerned. I don’t expect him to shoot that high year over year or to be to 5 in the NHL in P/60 year over year.
Of course, as Drai shows, good players on good lines create good scoring chances and shoot at a higher percentage.
As an Oiler-hater are you concerned that a 21 year old Yamamoto produced at the excellent rates he did and didn’t even receive any material PP time?
Imagine how much more productive he could be.
Last year’s shooting percentage is irrelevant – he was a developing player that shouldn’t be in the NHL playing in his first year pro – weird that a first year pro would improve.
As an aside, JT MIller shot 2.7%, 7.8% and 9.6% in his first three years in the NHL….
Depth: Paying 6 different forwards $3M+ each to score less than 20 points.
Bonus: Having all 6 of those guys on the payroll for this season AND next.
(And also still having to pay 4 of them in 21-22).
It’s going to be very tough for the Canucks to improve in the short term due to that “depth” you speak of.
There is work to do, of course – but it is not nearly as much as the post above indicates.
Lots of important pieces in place with a few sparklers on their way including Evan Bouchard – Kailer Yamamoto showed how important one little piece can be.
Of note, through the last 30 games of the season, with the Oilers being one of the best teams in the league, the 5 on 5 goal differential was massively positive – with McDavid missing a quarter of those games.
Perhaps the 5 on 5 goal differential has been solved internally.
I don’t think they are going to assign the flames the Oilers’ third round pick and move on.
I don’t think they are going to have the Oilers keep their third rounder and the flames receive nothing and move on.
Chiarelli was GM for 4 drafts (2015-18). In that time the Oilers drafted 11F, 11D and 4G.
What’s interesting is that aside from Bouchard, none of the D were drafted before the 3rd round. That 4 of the 11 D appear to be legit NHLers, or tracking as that (Bouchard), well that’s pretty solid work.
In addition to Bouchard, 5F and 1G were drafted in the 1st and 2nd round by Chiarelli.
Willis has an article at the Athletic about “why NHL teams should gamble of D later in the draft”. I haven’t actually read it but seems like it might have been a solid strategy by Chiarelli and his staff.
https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/
Agree the Oilers haven’t gotten anything out of their goalie picks in some time. Chiarelli drafted 1 per year but again, the highest pick spent on a goalie was #62 for Rodrigue.
Honestly all this seems like a sound strategy to me.
Damn OP….. take Bouchard’s contract and get a room.
Yamamoto’s shooting %
19-20 NHL 25.0%
19-20 AHL 18.6%
18-19 NHL 7.7%
18-19 AHL 22.2%
17-18 WHL 20.8%
The WHL didn’t keep stats for Yamamoto’s draft year when he scored 42 goals. I imaging the SH% was nice that year too.
Yes, he’ll regress from 25%. And at least splitting the difference between this NHL season and last seems a very good bet based on his own history.
I’ll be curious to see what the ratings will be for these playoffs
After being cooped up for months I don’t see a huge desire to stay inside this summer to watch hockey especially in the US
Kubalik’s is 19.1, regression will come for both but we don’t know when.
Oilers tore it down, and it’s taken one forever to build it back. Fans should hope Holland finds a way to get Nuge, Larsson and Klefbom into ‘next contracts’ without breaking the bank. If the team added those three at their current age in summer 2011 instead of Eric Belanger, Andy Sutton and Cam Barker then the last decade might have turned out differently. Depth and balance means having several players over 25 and less than 32 contributing in a big way.
When you let the talent get to rock bottom it is a long climb back. Poor draft and development put them in the hole and until recently has kept them there.
I’ll take the average of those two and run, please and thanks.
Its tough to evaluate PK ability by the numbers for the most part but, if I remember correctly, hasn’t Nuge had semi-poor numbers on the PK over the years? Likely a function, at least partially, of being on an overall poor PK unit but still.
Also, I think JJ has had fairly solid numbers the last few years even on tough PK units and he is Nuge’s regular PK partner this year.
Not to deride Nuge….
That number will go up and up and up thought – Bear, Jones and Yamamoto will assuredly be added to the list – can’t imagine Bouchard won’t be. A number of others likely as well.
I would think the same can be said for PIT though so your point is likely very valid that the metric doesn’t tell much.
Are you at all concerned that Yamamoto’s shooting percentage was 25%.
It was 7.7% the previous season.
Top 10 is likely…it’s also likely to not be good enough to be a contender if your 5V5 play is average at best.
Still lots of work to do and not many assets (other than trades) to do it.
If Seattle doesn’t get a good player from your team, it means your team sucks. Just like with Vegas.
It’s not going to happen
Not going to happen. LeBrun Is just trolling Oiler fans.
I think there’s a chance it’s quite “busy” with locals who avoid it because it’s usually too busy, but many businesses do poorly because they sell stuff few Canadians want (tacky souvenirs, overpriced mtn gear, rocks and gems) etc.
Places locals would go to, like Banff Brew co, coffee shops, some restaurants, may do as well as possible, max capacity losses due to distancing aside.
I don’t think that 30% is sustainable year after year but having a good PP, year over year, has shown to be repeatable and much more predictable than a great PK.
Do we really think the likes of McDavid, Drai and Nuge, none of them near regression years, won’t continue to succeed on the PP? Klefbom has learned now to distribute the puck with those guys but there are two young high end PP talents that will replace him over the next few year – both Bear and Bouchard were elite PP d-men in junior – it may not translate but I don’t see this PP not being top 10 in any year in the near future.
The reliance on special teams is absolutely a concern – i give you that. For the rest of this season, AA and Ennis provide some extra 5 on 5 depth that gives the coach options and should improve 5 on 5 play – should.
For the future, well, GM Ken Holland is still building.
Of note, I believe Edmonton was 6th in the league in points percentage since Yamamoto was recalled at the turn of the calendar – and that includes 7 games (I think) without McDavid (and much of it prior to accumulating the deadline depth).
Are they an elite contending team? No, but I think they can certainly go on a run.
They have depth at every single position right now:
– 2 of Ennis, Nygard, Haas, Chiasson, Neal will be healthy scratches
– one of Rusty/Jones will be a scratch on LD and they still have Lagesson
– one of Benning/Green will be a scratch on RD and they still have Bouchard
– nope, neither of Koski nor Smith are elite but both have shown the ability to get hot and that can win playoff series.
– shit, if once of the top 2 centers went down, there is still Nuge to fill in up the middle
How’s this for an asterisk: despite the season being shortened by Covid, only last year’s season by Kucherov (128 pts) netted more points in a season by an Art Ross Winner than Leon’s 110pts, dating back to 2010, when Henrik Sedin won with 112 pts.
I haven’t been here in a while, so I must have missed the announcement that this was becoming a Canucks blog.
Sure, fair enough – frankly I don’t really care if he wins it or not – the point was really that Tippett has received, and continues to receive, credit for his part in the Oilers’ turnaround this season.
At least I believe he has and does.