Lottery Day!

Light a candle. Send a message heavenward to the God who’ll listen, find some instant karma and think good thoughts. People will tell you the Edmonton Oilers don’t deserve McDavid Lafreniere, I say diddly squat. Edmonton Oilers fans have earned the right to have two three lottery wins, and perhaps the hockey Gods have been beating fans senseless these years in order for Oilers fans to earn this reward.

*Those words, with slight alterations, adorned this blog on McDavid’s lottery day in 2015.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

On the day of the McDavid lottery, I had a mock draft ready, but it didn’t involve Edmonton winning. Here, for the first time, is the mock I wrote and planned to publish once Edmonton was in position to draft (I chose No. 4 overall, it was the one edit I thought possible).

No. 4 overall: D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA). 6.03, 203. Hanifin checks off all of the boxes MacT has stressed since returning: He’s big, an up the middle addition and he’s a very talented player who can help offensively. The key for this draft is acquiring an impact player and Hanifin is certainly qualified to be taken in this range. His NHLE (82GP, 4-13-17) does not imply he’ll be a major offensive contributor, but we must factor in the age difference between Hanifin and his opposition. Shane Luke of Providence College was born June 5, 1990. Hanifin? January 25, 1997. That’s a lot of man strength. My hope is that the Oilers don’t rush Hanifin but rather find the best route to the NHL possible, be it back to college or the AHL.

No. 16 overall: R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). 6.01, 209. I am convinced the Oilers are flush enough at center and defense to invest in badly needed cover at the scoring-winger slot. Meier is a very nice option, not only because of his boxcars (NHLE: 82GP, 18-18-36) but because all of the indicators (year over year progression, etc) are positive. He’s a 1996, so you’re giving up some development track, but I like him plenty.

No. 33 overall: D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). 6.00, 200. A smart, mobile defender who has the defensive game down with coverage skills and anticipation. He also owns a great shot from the point, which may or may not be a factor moving forward. He may be a little high on my list but this is a nice player and a good bet. NHLE is 82GP, 5-9-14

No. 60 overall: L Vladimir Tkachev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). 5.10, 144. There’s a chance he goes before this number (I have him at No. 47) but he’s so small I can see other teams passing on him. As you know this young man has terrific skills and showed management what he could do to the point they offered him a contract. His NHLE (9-17-26) doesn’t wow, they should be able to grab him here.

No. 79 overall: C Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Omaha (USHL). 6.01, 190. Another reason I believe Edmonton can use their high picks outside center is the sheer number of excellent options in the draft at this position. JFK is a fine young center who plays an aggressive game and has good speed. His USHL numbers (50GP, 15-38-53). He is a smart, creative center.

No. 89 overall: G Adin Hill, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). 6.03, 185. Led the WHL in save percentage (.921) in a season where his backups were miles behind. I’m no goalie expert but the WHL is a fine league and this fellow has decent size and a growing resume. I don’t like the idea of using a top 60 pick on a goalie and this seems like a reasonable spot for the bet.

No. 124 overall: C Alexander Dergachyov, St. Petersburg (Rus Jr). 6.04, 200. Huge center enjoyed a strong season in Russia’s junior league (45GP, 10-29-39) and the scouting report from Elite Prospects suggests legit skill. Alessandro Seren Russo has a nice writeup on him at the Hockey Writers.

No. 131 overall: R Sebastian Aho, Kärpät—Assat (SM-Liiga). 5.11, 172. I must be missing something with this player (there’s also a Swedish defender of the same name). According to the records, he played in Finland’s top league and scored well (30GP, 4-9-13) for his age but it’s damn near impossible to find a reasonable scouting report on him. I’d take a flyer, or at least investigate further.

No. 154 overall: C Matteo Gennaro, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). 6.02, 187. A big center with good speed, Gennaro didn’t make the mid-term CS list but ranks No. 127 on the final list. Cody Nickolet marked him back in October and he is a good prospect from the Oilers back yard (he’s from St. Albert and Fernando Pisani is his cousin). His boxcars (72GP, 16-15-31) aren’t impact level but the scouting report suggests a range of skills.

No. 184 overall: G Jordan Papirny, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). I thought they might take him last season, and Papirny’s improved play this year may get him selected (but not until late).

There’s a lack of Euro’s on this list but the nature of the draft is that we don’t get a strong impression of the kids across the pond until after the U18’s (on currently). The next four weeks will be very important in that area. Beginning soon (in the next week or so) I’ll start passing along the prospects from leagues posts and we’ll have a long look at Bob Green at that point as well.

The thing to remember is this: Edmonton is in a very good position to deliver a strong draft this year but it’s just the beginning. Draft is followed by develop and it takes time. We’ll get a very good indication this season, because there is potential to swing for the fences on almost every pick. The draft is that deep.

BUTTON LOVED THE OILERS 2015 DRAFT

I posted an ISS look at the Oilers draft the other day and continue the series here with Craig Button’s view. Button is a divisive figure for many, this blog’s comments have been very punishing in the past while the blog’s author respects his view. Button’s list is not meant to predict the draft (as Bob McKenzie’s does) or rely on consensus, it’s Button’s view alone. Like Red Line report, it’s a (free) independent look from a man who had real and quantifiable success in the position of scouting director once upon a time. Here’s how he ranked the Oilers picks:

No. 1 overall: Connor McDavid. Button had him No. 1. “Two words; unprecedented speed. Skating speed, hand quickness and mental processing that he executes simultaneously to threaten defenders and create opportunities. He would be the first pick at every draft since Sidney Crosby in 2005, perhaps even in Crosby’s draft year.”

No. 117 overall: Caleb Jones. Button had him No. 81.

No. 124 overall: Ethan Bear. Button had him No. 77. “There is a lot of ability in his game to impact the game in a positive way. He gets where he needs to be, he never gets himself in trouble. He’s a body-on-body one-on-one competitor. If you want to play against him in the defensive zone, you’ll have to earn everything you get. He can get the puck out of the zone well, he knows what his options are, doesn’t get himself into trouble. Smart player.”

No. 209 overall: Ziyat Paigin. Button had him No. 86

THE TOP 50 PLAYERS IN THE 2020 DRAFT

  1. L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL. NHL ready, fleet scorer who plays with an edge.
  2. LC Quinton Byfield, OHL. August 2002, 6.04, 215. Big, powerful winger, excellent speed.
  3. LC Tim Stutzle, DEL. Dynamic player, highlight reel offense. Tremendous skater.
  4. LC Marco Rossi, OHL. Good speed, exciting, range of skills. Exceptional talent.
  5. RHD Jamie Drysdale, OHL. Great speed, passing and instincts, instant offense from the blue.
  6. LC Cole Perfetti, OHL. Outstanding talent, not as fast as top forwards, has tremendous skill.
  7. RW Alexander Holtz, SHL. First-shot scorer with a range of skills, he’s an electric player.
  8. LW Lucas Raymond, SHL. Smart player who has ridiculous skill. March 2002. Fine skater.
  9. RW Jack Quinn OHL. Impressive offensive winger was a late breaker. Pure goal scorer.
  10. RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL. Impressive player who is both scorer and playmaker.
  11. RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL. Creative center, great passer, great shot. Plays in tough areas.
  12. LC Connor Zary, WHL. Quick, smart two-way center effective across 200 feet. 
  13. LD Jake Sanderson, USHL. Smart, fast two-way defenseman has complete skill set.
  14. LC Anton Lundell, Liiga. Complete skill set, average speed but improving.
  15. RC Seth Jarvis, WHL.  Jarvis is a fantastic player, undersized and skilled. Big second half.
  16. RW Noel Gunler, SHL. Has a great release and an impressive resume. Attractive option.
  17. G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. He plays an unusual style. June 2002, has a .923 VHL save percentage.
  18. RC Jacob Perreault, OHL. Skates well, great shot, great numbers, excellent passer.
  19. LC Jan Mysak, OHL. Skilled and is effective in all areas. Major move in second half.
  20. LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL. Big defenseman has good foot speed and full skill set.
  21. LD Jérémie Poirier, QMJHL. Smart offensive defender, puck transporter.
  22. RD Braden Schneider, WHL. Fine skater, physical, smart two-way defenseman.
  23. LW Lukas Reichel, DEL. Mid-season riser. He has skill, speed and plays with abandon.
  24. LW Rodion Amirov, KHL. Scouts love the tools. A fast train in a draft season with slow boats.
  25. LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10. Big power forward. Strong skater, nice range of skills.
  26. LW Ridly Greig, WHL. Smart offensive winger with good instincts, August 2002. Not a burner.
  27. RC Tyson Foerster, OHL. Great offensive weapon, quick release and accurate.
  28. LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center projects as a playmaker. Injury a worry.
  29. RHD Justin Barron, QMJHL. Mobile blue can defend. Lacks top-end offensive ability.
  30. LW John-Jason Peterka, DEL. A speedy winger with skill, survived in a men’s league.
  31. LW Martin Chromiak, OHL. One of the most skilled players in the draft.
  32. LW Brendan Brisson, USHL. Undersized speedster spiked late. Big riser.
  33. LD William Wallinder, Superelite. Big (6.04, 195) 2-way defenseman with good speed.
  34. LW Jake Neighbours WHL He’s skilled, gritty and plays a strong two-way game.
  35. RW Zion Nybeck, SuperElite. Undersized playmaker, great passer. Impressive speed.
  36. RC Jean-Luc Foudy, OHL. Speedy center plus skill, mediocre season.
  37. LD Emil Andrae, SuperElite. Fast defenseman with offensive potential. Plus passer.
  38. LC Ty Smilanic, USHL. Lean center, plus skater and pure scorer. Had mono.
  39. LC Vasili Ponomaryov, QMJHL. Great hands and good speed, he’s a little under the radar
  40. RW Ozzy Wiesblatt, WHL. Undersized winger is aggressive, fast and skilled.
  41. RW Sam Colangelo, USHL. Big power winger with skill, scored 28 goals in 44 games.
  42. RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. Skill winger, great passer, plays in all disciplines.
  43. RD Helge Grans, SHL. Solid two-way defenseman with good size and speed.
  44. RW Connor McClennon, WHL. Numbers are solid to excellent. Undersized, range of skills.
  45. RC Jack Finley, WHL. An August 2002 and a big pivot, he plays a fairly complete game.
  46. RW Kasper Simontaival, Liiga. Unusual skating style but he’s quick and has high-end skill.
  47. RC Justin Sourdif, WHL. Two-way winger gained notice at the Hlinka, solid season.
  48. LW Veeti Miettinen, Jr Liiga. Undersized winger, fills the net with pucks.
  49. RW Pavel Novak, WHL. Speedster with skill, he’s a scorer.
  50. LW Sean Farrell, USHL. A good skater with plus skills, spiked offensively.

If the Oilers can get two names inside my top-50 overall, as they did in 2015 (McDavid and Bear), then that should be considered a solid draft. For me, Mavrik Bourque and Seth Jarvis are terrific options. We’ll see.

OILERS BLUE VERSUS ELITES 2019-20

I’m seeing lots of “trade Klefbom, trade Larsson, trade Nurse” tweets and posts, just a friendly reminder that making decisions on small sample sizes is unwise. Adam Larsson was injured for much of the early portion of the year, then settled in and was relied upon and delivered better performances against elites than any other Oilers blue. Nurse was second in DFF%RC. Klefbom had a tough season in this area but some of that was Larsson’s injury/getting back to full health.

I hope one day to observe a team that trades bottom pairing defensemen and waits until young blue are ready and seasoned. I would keep Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear and Jones for 2020-21. Matt Benning and Kris Russell are expendable. Evan Bouchard can slide in on the third pairing, Lagesson the No. 7 man. Maybe during 2020-21 Jones passes Klefbom on the depth chart and the pairings become Nurse-Bear, Jones-Larsson and Klefbom-Bouchard. For the love of God, please don’t turn this defense back into the 2006-07 crew. I can’t take it anymore. A reminder, and say it with me, young defensemen will break your heart. All numbers via PuckIQ.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a big show planned for a big day in sports. At 10:20, Reid Fowler from Draft Kings joins us to talk about Collin Morikawa. He emerged from a massive pack to win the PGA Tournament in San Fransisco yesterday. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 pops in at 11 to talk Oilers disappointments, the draft lottery and the offseason to come in Edmonton. We’ll also have a guest from the champion Edmonton Stingers join us at 11:25 to talk about winning the Canadian Elite Basketball League Summer Series title on Sunday. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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214 Responses to "Lottery Day!"

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  1. Brantford Boy says:

    Young defensemen will break your heart…
    Young defensemen will break your heart…
    Young defensemen will break your heart…
    All lottery and no hockey makes Brantford Boy dull…

    Trade Klefbom, trade Larsson, trade Nurse? Nonsense!

    Let’s see if we can get our balls to drop (am I doing it right?)…

    I mean, Hall our lottery rabbit’s foot is in Edmonton, has to be fate right?

  2. jtblack says:

    keep the train on the tracks … Edmonton showed the most * balance * that we have seen in years.

    Edm was .0005% from being a Top 4 seed for the playoffs. Their regular season was far better than most predicted. They have 2 elite centres and quality NHL D running 8 – 10 deep.

    Obviously Holland needs to shore up bottom six and scoring wingers, but he can do that. Goaltending also needs to be better for the long haul.

    Some tweaks here and there, will have this team competing in the playoffs for the next 5 years.

    Stay the Course Ken. Don’t PC this team. Stay the course.

    I def try to move on from Russell, but that may not be possible. I start next season with RNH-DRAI-YAMO and see if they can recreate themselves as a dominant line.

    If LAFR lands in our laps, there is a bona fide plug and play Top 6. If not, Edm is set to get an excellent prospect @ #14 (14 or 15?) ..

    Go Oilers.!

  3. who says:

    Looking at the list of losers who have a shot at 1OV I had a sudden thought. What if Winnipeg wins?
    Would you trade Klefbom and Benson/McLeod for Ehlers and Copp? Would Winnipeg do it?
    It’s at least a year too early to trade Klefbom but…….

  4. Professor Q says:

    If Ottawa was really desperate for the #1, and if Edmonton won the lottery, would adding both Stützle and Drysdale be a good trade off for Lafrenière?

  5. Kraz says:

    Man would Lafreniere ever look good on McDavids wing. Pretty much the perfect skill set to compliment McDavid.

    Anyways leaf land is up in arms right now. Johnston has an article calling for seismic change and Burke saying its time to trade Nylander for a defenceman. Would be hard to trade Nurse but Nylander would be a hell of an addition especially since he is signed long term.

  6. Harpers Hair says:

    George Richards (@GeorgeRichards) Tweeted:
    #FlaPanthers say they have mutually parted ways with Dale Tallon after 10 years; are searching for a GM.

  7. Woogie63 says:

    Adding
    Lafreniere
    Puljujarvi
    Benson
    Jones
    Bouchard
    UFA Goalie

    Subtracting
    Sheahan
    Ennis
    P. Russell
    Smith
    Green
    K. Russell
    Grunland
    Manning
    Sammy – retained
    Gryba – retained

  8. slopitch says:

    They should be calling daily about Nylander. Id have time for Freddie Anderson too.

    When the Oilers won in 2015, I was painting my house. I feel as though I should add a feature wall here…

  9. Melman says:

    Can the Oilers borrow Hall for a few hours this afternoon?

  10. Sunnyboy says:

    Nurse for Nylander, sounds good to me.

  11. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Thanks LT. If you could oblige me responses to these 2 questions, it would be appreciated…

    1. My broken heart is wondering when are “young defensemen” not young anymore? 200 gp, 300 gp??
    2. If Benning is moved that leaves Larsson, Bear, Bouchard….Bergland….What do you recommend for some RD back up depth?

  12. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Harpers Hair:
    George Richards (@GeorgeRichards) Tweeted:
    #FlaPanthers say they have mutually parted ways with Dale Tallon after 10 years; are searching for a GM.

    Anyone have PC’s e-mail address we can send to FLA?

  13. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    slopitch:
    They should be calling daily about Nylander. Id have time for Freddie Anderson too.

    When the Oilers won in 2015, I was painting my house. I feel as though I should add a feature wall here…

    My Oilers feature wall has head and fist sized holes in it painted with tears and blood.

  14. jt17 says:

    So I have been a reader for a few years now and have only posted twice. I’m about to share something I don’t think anyone has ever brought up before, something very radical, so I ask that you please keep an open mind. It is a major tweak to the way the draft is run, and I’d be happy to hear your comments. I already know there won’t be much agreement, but here it is regardless:

    1) the way the draft is currently set up rewards organizational failure and punishes success. Fans of losing teams have to endure rebuilds that last 5~8 years, if not longer. When I was in high school, we played a card game called “Axxhole” (you can substitute the x’s for s’s). Basically the loser of the last game (the A’hole) had to trade his two best cards for the winner’s two worst cards. No one wanted to lose, we all tried very hard every hand.

    2) So I propose two possible changes to the draft. The first one, which is a bit more moderate, is that the draft order would be a snake so that the cup winner drafting 31 would also get 32, and the team with the first pick would get 1, 62, and 63 and then it would go back, etc.

    3) the second, more radical, alternative is to give the first place team (the cup champions) the first overall pick, and give the worst team the last pick. It would also be a snake, so last place team would get 31 and 32, and first place gets 1, 62, and 63, etc.

    4) the great equalizer is the salary cap and floor. So top teams would not be able to sign all their players and would either have to trade away talent or lose them to free agency. Losing teams would get poor draft picks but would have a relatively higher budget to sign players that the top teams could no longer afford. You could lower the age of free agency to 26 or something to that effect.

    I know this sounds radical, but we would have meaningful regular season games. This is supposed to be the best league in the world and teams shouldn’t be rewarded for losing. Tickets are expensive, and these athletes get paid millions so fans should demand more.

    Anyway, I wanted to get that out as its been in my head for a few years. Thanks for reading.

  15. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I have a lot of respect for KRusty, but his style of play is not well-suited for most current NHL teams, particularly the Oil. He generally collapses and falls back (his “natural style”). If they can part ways with him without too much pain to open space for Jones and Lag and Bouch, I think the transition game will significantly improve, less time in our own end…if the whole team can play with poise and structure (puck support).

    I find it a little odd that Tipp is on record saying (paraphrasing): “the best d are those that keep it out of their own end”, yet he constantly defers to KRusty for 2RD when a replacement is needed.

  16. norm_klassen says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Thanks LT. If you could oblige me responses to these 2 questions, it would be appreciated…

    1. My broken heart is wondering when are “young defensemen” not young anymore? 200 gp, 300 gp??
    2. If Benning is moved that leaves Larsson, Bear, Bouchard….Bergland….What do you recommend for some RD back up depth?
    We are signing Pietranglo; come on now😄

  17. norm_klassen says:

    Can we sign one of those not so great but can play veteran D man?
    Who is the demers of the free agent pack?

  18. who says:

    Another random thought after reading the Custance article at the Athletic.
    If there really is going to be a flat cap for the next 2 or 3 years, teams are going to be scrambling to trade overpriced contracts. Logic then says that this is going to be extremely difficult, and expensive (in terms of added assets), to do.
    Does this not make a Neal buyout all the more likely to happen?
    And is this not the most cost effective way of creating cap space given the new reality of a flat cap?

  19. flyfish1168 says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Nurse for Nylander, sounds good to me.

    As long as they retain 1.5 million throughout the contract

  20. godot10 says:

    Kraz:
    Man would Lafreniere ever look good on McDavids wing. Pretty much the perfect skill set to compliment McDavid.

    Anyways leaf land is up in arms right now. Johnston has an article calling for seismic change and Burke saying its time to trade Nylander for a defenceman. Would be hard to trade Nurse but Nylander would be a hell of an addition especially since he is signed long term.

    Kassian and Khaira for Kerfoot and Anderssen. Would you do it?

  21. who says:

    godot10: Kassian and Khaira for Kerfoot and Anderssen.Would you do it?

    Sure.
    Would Toronto?
    Hell No.

  22. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10: Kassian and Khaira for Kerfoot and Anderssen.Would you do it?

    What truculence would remain?

  23. godot10 says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Nurse for Nylander, sounds good to me.

    It is like some people didn’t read Lowetide’s post, or just watch Toronto lose with no defensemen, and supposedly all the offense in the world.

    All those Leaf forwards are highly overrated, just like the US National Junior Team last year.

  24. Durag says:

    godot10: Kassian and Khaira for Kerfoot and Anderssen.Would you do it?

    And how many kilos of heroin am I smuggling in my anus to make this happen? Just a rhetorical question, obviously any real fan would make room no matter what.

  25. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    norm_klassen:
    Can we sign one of those not so great but can play veteran D man?
    Who is the demers of the free agent pack?

    Mike Green for 1 M x 1 yr?
    But COVID concerns kept him from the bubble and I would imagine if he is consistent with his reasoning, would keep him from playing 20-21.

    Who needs those low round draft picks, when you have 1OV…;)

  26. godot10 says:

    jt17:
    So I have been a reader for a few years now and have only posted twice.I’m about to share something I don’t think anyone has ever brought up before, something very radical, so I ask that you please keep an open mind.It is a major tweak to the way the draft is run, and I’d be happy to hear your comments.I already know there won’t be much agreement, but here it is regardless:

    1) the way the draft is currently set up rewards organizational failure and punishes success.Fans of losing teams have to endure rebuilds that last 5~8 years, if not longer.When I was in high school, we played a card game called “Axxhole” (you can substitute the x’s for s’s).Basically the loser of the last game (the A’hole) had to trade his two best cards for the winner’s two worst cards.No one wanted to lose, we all tried very hard every hand.

    2) So I propose two possible changes to the draft.The first one, which is a bit more moderate, is that the draft order would be a snake so that the cup winner drafting 31 would also get 32, and the team with the first pick would get 1, 62, and 63 and then it would go back, etc.

    3) the second, more radical, alternative is to give the first place team (the cup champions) the first overall pick, and give the worst team the last pick.It would also be a snake, so last place team would get 31 and 32, and first place gets 1, 62, and 63, etc.

    4) the great equalizer is the salary cap and floor.So top teams would not be able to sign all their players and would either have to trade away talent or lose them to free agency.Losing teams would get poor draft picks but would have a relatively higher budget to sign players that the top teams could no longer afford.You could lower the age of free agency to 26 or something to that effect.

    I know this sounds radical, but we would have meaningful regular season games.This is supposed to be the best league in the world and teams shouldn’t be rewarded for losing.Tickets are expensive, and these athletes get paid millions so fans should demand more.

    Anyway, I wanted to get that out as its been in my head for a few years.Thanks for reading.

    With a hard cap, there is really no need for a draft at all. Just get rid of it. The hard cap serves to distribute talent.

  27. Lowetide says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Thanks LT. If you could oblige me responses to these 2 questions, it would be appreciated…

    1. My broken heart is wondering when are “young defensemen” not young anymore? 200 gp, 300 gp??
    2. If Benning is moved that leaves Larsson, Bear, Bouchard….Bergland….What do you recommend for some RD back up depth?

    1. I’d say three full NHL seasons. Bear, who was a fine rookie, may beat that number but he could also take a step back. Defense is an insanely difficult position.
    2. Mike Green if he’s inexpensive would be a good addition

  28. tileguy says:

    Speaking of Krusty’s style of play, did anybody else enjoy seeing Klefbom laying prone on the ice defending, what’s with that?

  29. CrazyCoach says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    We have the same feature wall.

  30. Reja says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Nurse for Nylander, sounds good to me.

    I would say no even if they added his mom in the trade.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    I’ve been on the Seth Jarvis train since at least February when we were expecting to pick in the early twenties. Then of course the scouting community caught up and Jarvis seemed out of reach. Now that the Oilers are picking 14th, it looks like it’s time to revive the Jarvis hype.

  32. tileguy says:

    And speaking of taking a step back, why has everybody inked in Yamamoto as bonafide top 6?

  33. McSorley33 says:

    I just don’t want Winnipeg or Toronto to win the draft, please.

    IF we do win – the League would explode in anger – see Toronto mood – if we won – yet again.

    If it can’t be us – let Alex go play in Florida.

  34. Dee Dee says:

    I agree with GoDot and Jt, just get rid of the Draft.

    It’s mostly a Crapshoot anyhow, and Teams would have to pay a dear enough cost to land said player.

    Added bonus points to signing future busts to Mega salaries and then having to live with said dud eating a huge percentage of the cap for years, all due to the Teams own decision making.

    Lesser teams could still land star players because they have the same cap limits as the rich ones.

    And to just rub a little salt in the wounds of the 2020 Oilers, they were only 1 extra win away from being in the Top 4 with its guaranteed spot…

  35. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10:
    #Mmm-Mavrik

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7VVatFqhJQ

    I support the #Mmm-Mavrik movement

  36. jt17 says:

    godot10,

    Is this sarcasm? sorry I can’t tell.

  37. Kraz says:

    godot10,

    Yes I would but not sure why Toronto would

  38. Kraz says:

    godot10,

    Yes I would but not sure why Toronto would

  39. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    From last thread, would anyone else be keen on a Russell for Stepan w/ say 750k retained?

  40. godot10 says:

    jt17:
    godot10,

    Is this sarcasm?sorry I can’t tell.

    With a hard cap, a draft is totally unnecessary. It would be better for everyone involved.

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    norm_klassen:
    Can we sign one of those not so great but can play veteran D man?
    Who is the demers of the free agent pack?

    Roman Polak.

    *ducks*

  42. fries n gravy says:

    The winner of today’s lottery: Mr. Lafreniere.

    No bottom-feeder dysfunctional organization for him. No 3+ year boat anchor of a team to addle his development.

    25% chance of playing with Crosby/McDavid.

    Good luck, young man. Make it a McDavid!

  43. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    From last thread, would anyone else be keen on a Russell for Stepan w/ say 750k retained?

    Sure, but why would the dogs want Russell? They already have former Oiler Oesterle in solid at 3LD…

  44. McSorley33 says:

    I keep seeing we need to fix the bottom 6……I don’t get it.

    We have *tons* of 4th line players. The 4th line forwards has become our old 3rd pairing D problem…..

    We have a middle 6 forward issue. None more pressing than a 3C.

    Big time.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: With a hard cap, a draft is totally unnecessary.It would be better for everyone involved.

    Without a draft, McDavid would never have been an Oiler. I can see getting rid of the lottery, but not the draft.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    I keep seeing we need to fix the bottom 6……I don’t get it.

    We have *tons* of 4th line players. The 4th line forwards hasbecome our old 3rd pairing D problem…..

    We have a middle 6 forward issue. None more pressing than a 3C.

    Big time.

    How many 6’s are there?!

  47. JOFA says:

    Jack Quinn please and thank you😊

  48. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Sure, but why would the dogs want Russell? They already have former Oiler Oesterle in solid at 3LD…

    Real dollar savings that they’re supposedly aiming for.

  49. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    norm_klassen:
    Can we sign one of those not so great but can play veteran D man?
    Who is the demers of the free agent pack?

    Jon Merrill.

  50. Elgin R says:

    Professor Q,

    Almost. #1 + Neal for #3 and #5.

  51. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    fries n gravy:
    The winner of today’s lottery: Mr. Lafreniere.

    No bottom-feeder dysfunctional organization for him.No 3+ year boat anchor of a team to addle his development.

    25% chance of playing with Crosby/McDavid.

    Good luck, young man.Make it a McDavid!

    Because this league is such a gong-show, I sincerely hope the 1OV goes to one of the “playoff bound” teams from this year….PIT, EDM, NSH, (TOR), sure – why not us…?

  52. Todd Macallan says:

    JOFA:
    Jack Quinn please and thank you

    ^

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Which playoff caliber team will get Laferniere?
    Or if Wild win then Byfield I guess

  54. Eh Team says:

    who: Does this not make a Neal buyout all the more likely to happen?

    A Neal buyout is a no-brainer.

  55. Eh Team says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I have a lot of respect for KRusty, but his style of play is not well-suited for most current NHL teams, particularly the Oil. He generally collapses and falls back (his “natural style”). If they can part ways with him without too much pain to open space for Jones and Lag and Bouch, I think the transition game will significantly improve, less time in our own end…if the whole team can play with poise and structure (puck support).

    I find it a little odd that Tipp is on record saying (paraphrasing): “the best d are those that keep it out of their own end”, yet he constantly defers to KRusty for 2RD when a replacement is needed.

    It’s time to move on from Russell. Great competitor, great career but can’t make a pass out of his own end. I’d move on from Larsson too. Same issue. Need more d’men like Jones and Bear who can transition the puck.

    And, yeah, we have about 8 guys who are good 4th liners. Need a 3rd line with some skill.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    I did not want the Oilers to be in the second lottery. I was hopeful (and confidant) they would beat the Hawsk and continue on to the plays.

    Alas, that did not happen and we are where we are – with a 12.5% chance to move up to 1st overall.

    I hope they do indeed move up to 1st overall and draft the immediate fix to the 1LW problem – a player that can come in and be a legit top 6 LW in his draft plus one – 3 years on his ELC (likely close to $4M cap hit at the end of the day but value).

    If the Oilers do not win the lottery, I very much look forward to delving deeper in to the prospects likely available in the 14-15 range. There are going to be some great forward skill prospects available – the tier is different than the 20-21 range (from what I hear).

    The Oilers will be drafting a very good (or great) asset.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting to ready opinions that the Oilers should keep Kris Russell and move on from Klefbom or Nurse mainly due to their play in the 2020 qualifying round.

    Don’t get me wrong, I am highly concerned that the 3 of the top 4 d-men did not play anywhere near good enough in the post-season. It is a concern and demoralizing but, to me, its not a reason to throw away years of data and knowledge.

    Both Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse are better and more valuable than Kris Russell.

    Yes, both Klef and Nurse were highly disappointing and maybe they aren’t the top 2 LD this team needs to win a championship. Maybe a move needs to be made. Maybe its now, maybe its in a year. I don’t know.

    What I do know is not to put TOO MUCH in to the 4-game performance. Its needs to be considered but not overly considered.

    If i recall correctly, Klefbom was quite good in 2017 – this is likely a blip.

    No, he’s not a legit 1LD, nor is Nurse, but they are more than they just showed.

  58. Oil2Oilers says:

    Melman:
    Can the Oilers borrow Hall for a few hours this afternoon?

    Holland should at the very least invite him over to for a draft lottery watching party. It is only hospital after all!

  59. geowal says:

    McSorley33:
    I just don’t want Winnipeg or Toronto to win the draft, please.

    IF we do win – the League would explode in anger – see Toronto mood – if we won – yet again.

    If it can’t be us – let Alex go play in Florida.

    Minnesota he would have the biggest change to an org, give them some dynamic offense

  60. leadfarmer says:

    geowal: Minnesota he would have the biggest change to an org, give them some dynamic offense

    I think they are the only team that would pick Byfield.
    They have Fiala and Kaprizov as future wingers
    They are incredibly desperate for a Center.

  61. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: With a hard cap, a draft is totally unnecessary.It would be better for everyone involved.

    Seems that all the other major sports use a draft with choices based on inverse order of finish. The NHL decided to throw in the lottery aspect for teams that finished out of the playoffs. They tried to fix what wasn’t broken. The Montreal dynasty was fuelled in great part by the fact that once upon a time Montreal got first pick of all Quebec Born players. All other players were picked on choices based on inverse order of finish.

  62. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: It is like some people didn’t read Lowetide’s post, or just watch Toronto lose with no defensemen, and supposedly all the offense in the world.

    All those Leaf forwards are highly overrated, just like the US National Junior Team last year.

    Not unlike the done by Dallas Eakin coaching wonder.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    If Ottawa was really desperate for the #1, and if Edmonton won the lottery, would adding both Stützle and Drysdale be a good trade off for Lafrenière?

    I would want them to take the Neal contract as well.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Thanks LT. If you could oblige me responses to these 2 questions, it would be appreciated…

    1. My broken heart is wondering when are “young defensemen” not young anymore? 200 gp, 300 gp??
    2. If Benning is moved that leaves Larsson, Bear, Bouchard….Bergland….What do you recommend for some RD back up depth?

    I recommend Matt Benning for the RD back up depth.

  65. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I recommend Matt Benning for the RD back up depth.

    Really?
    Do I have to walk you through this again?
    😎

  66. N64 says:

    In a few hours we find out how the Dive for Five ends

  67. jtblack says:

    fries n gravy:
    The winner of today’s lottery: Mr. Lafreniere.

    No bottom-feeder dysfunctional organization for him.No 3+ year boat anchor of a team to addle his development.

    25% chance of playing with Crosby/McDavid.

    Good luck, young man.Make it a McDavid!

    +1.

    He is going to go to an established team and won’t be needed to be a “Saviour”.

    TOR EDM PIT WPG. All great lineups already. 50% chance he lands there.

    Florida – BARKOV, HUBER, ETC
    Minny – prob the worst roster. but still a decent team overall

    NYR – awesome young lineup
    PREDS – decent lineup

    LAFR is PLUG AND PLAY for any lineup, an instant boost at less than $2 mil per WOW

  68. Reja says:

    It’s going to be interesting to see what Holland does with the first overall pick, he’ll be awful tempted to trade it.

  69. jp says:

    tileguy:
    And speaking of taking a step back, why has everybody inked in Yamamoto as bonafide top 6?

    Cause we need him to be.

  70. Sighduck says:

    Didn’t win in return to play for alexis lafreniere? Can the Oilers win the lottery now that we have a slogan?

  71. dunterpunter says:

    #1 to Nashville.
    Book it.

  72. Doug McLachlan says:

    2020, man…

    I am really disappointed with the results this past week but not as much with the effort as many here and on Twitter seem to be.

    When I see stats showing the Oiler’s expected goal share in the series or that three Oilers were amongst the play-in round’s top GameScore players I am comforted that while it was chaotic hockey, luck (in this case bad) played a much bigger part than design.

    There are problems to be fixed here, to be sure, but I am more optimistic about this team today than I’ve been in years. Seriously.

    One of the reasons I love coming here is that without being snobbish about it, this is a math-friendly, site. We try to look at this game we love and this team we love with some systematic rigor. We shy away from the “try harder” narratives of the MSM and the casual fans. Doesn’t mean we don’t value grit and effort but we want to see the numbers.

    Therefore the ashes and sackcloth routine has been disappointing to see. Ya, we lost. It sucks. We should have beaten Chicago (and the numbers agree with that) but we didn’t. To the extent that we can put any weight on what was happening when the League paused in March, the Oilers and Hawks were essentially tied from October 15th on. The Oil opened hot, the Hawks didn’t and from then on they were both playing equally well/bad. This was not the upset that the Habs-Pens was.

    To paraphrase Capt. Jean-Luc Picard: “It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness, that is life.” Now the Oilers certainly made mistakes, but so did the Hawks and so will the eventual Cup winner. Frozen ice and rubber pucks. By mid-October 30 teams will be wondering what went wrong.

    Our big guns came out firing. Sorry but Toronto’s Nuclear line was snuffed out twice in five games.

    Koskinen was average – but that’s what he is, average. 23rd best regular season sv% (tied with Crawford for 17th best among goalies playing 15 or more games) and he’s the 20th highest salary. How does Florida’s GM feel about his elite goalie investment today, oh right it cost him his job.

    I was sooooo hoping that AA could have cashed one or two in the last few games. He was starting to click but the tumblers didn’t fall into place. I am convinced that they will and that the bet was a reasonable one.

    Our young defense (Bear, Jones, Bouchard, Broberg) all took fantastic and measurable steps forward This is so impressive to see.

    There are even positive sounds coming from Finland regarding Jesse Puljujarvi. Seriously, so much to be upbeat about.

    I think we should have beaten the Hawks but even if we had, was this a Cup challenger? I think we could have gotten past Dallas and that experience would have been a good for everyone (especially us fans) but even if we DON’T win the Lafreniere sweepstakes in 2 and a half hours, I still think this may be a blessing a disguise.

    Get good players, keep good players. Good doesn’t mean perfect but trading Nurse or Klefbom, not resigning Atheneseau out of our emotional reaction to a 4 game series, in a bubble, in a pandemic is the very definition of an overreaction.

    Fingers crossed. Better odds than McDavid. We wait…

  73. JOFA says:

    Excellent job by Woodguy on with Stauffer today😊

  74. jp says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    From last thread, would anyone else be keen on a Russell for Stepan w/ say 750k retained?

    I suppose if there are actually no other options. Even with $750k retained his cap would be $1.75M more than Russell’s. Definitely would not be my first choice.

  75. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    jp: I suppose if there are actually no other options. Even with $750k retained his cap would be $1.75M more than Russell’s. Definitely would not be my first choice.

    The net difference being 1.75mil, that’s less than what we’d likely have to pay for a comparable player. I guess I’m assuming Russell is a sunk cost in so far as getting out of his cap hit is concerned. There may well be teams that a deal could be made to work, but I think they’d be cap neutral.

  76. iHockeyWpg says:

    I am predicting a Winnipeg Jets lottery win this evening.

  77. tavvey tune says:

    jt17:
    So I have been a reader for a few years now and have only posted twice.I’m about to share something I don’t think anyone has ever brought up before, something very radical, so I ask that you please keep an open mind.It is a major tweak to the way the draft is run, and I’d be happy to hear your comments.I already know there won’t be much agreement, but here it is regardless:

    1) the way the draft is currently set up rewards organizational failure and punishes success.Fans of losing teams have to endure rebuilds that last 5~8 years, if not longer.When I was in high school, we played a card game called “Axxhole” (you can substitute the x’s for s’s).Basically the loser of the last game (the A’hole) had to trade his two best cards for the winner’s two worst cards.No one wanted to lose, we all tried very hard every hand.

    2) So I propose two possible changes to the draft.The first one, which is a bit more moderate, is that the draft order would be a snake so that the cup winner drafting 31 would also get 32, and the team with the first pick would get 1, 62, and 63 and then it would go back, etc.

    3) the second, more radical, alternative is to give the first place team (the cup champions) the first overall pick, and give the worst team the last pick.It would also be a snake, so last place team would get 31 and 32, and first place gets 1, 62, and 63, etc.

    4) the great equalizer is the salary cap and floor.So top teams would not be able to sign all their players and would either have to trade away talent or lose them to free agency.Losing teams would get poor draft picks but would have a relatively higher budget to sign players that the top teams could no longer afford.You could lower the age of free agency to 26 or something to that effect.

    I know this sounds radical, but we would have meaningful regular season games.This is supposed to be the best league in the world and teams shouldn’t be rewarded for losing.Tickets are expensive, and these athletes get paid millions so fans should demand more.

    Anyway, I wanted to get that out as its been in my head for a few years.Thanks for reading.

    I would agree with AGM that it’s just the lottery portion that needs tweaking. The draft ensures that weaker teams get a chance to improve at a low cost. Generally, it does seem to work considering many of the non- playoff teams now were contenders 5-10 years ago and the dog teams then have improved thru the draft. There are exceptions of course, due mainly to inept management (ahem) but it mostly works. I think your ” radical” suggestion would only ensure the strong teams always have the best young talent coming along so they would always be strong, whereas the weak teams would be fighting over the scraps. A franchise like the Oilers would have a tough time attracting free agents or castoffs from the strong teams and we would slowly lose any valuable assets, including high draft position, so we couldn’t even trade our way to respectability. That would lead to a loss of hope in many markets, and that’s the last thing the NHL would want. That’s all we’ve been living on for 14 years.
    Also, I think viewing the draft as rewarding failure and punishing success is the wrong approach. I believe the success/failure cycle is the natural ebb and flow of results that come thru the aging/deterioration of rosters and the influx/improvement of new talent, aided of course by the draft itself. I don’t think it’s broken other than the lottery rules.

  78. Nix says:

    Why trade 1 for 3 and 5?
    -Supposed bumper crop of top end forwards this year. Not a huge drop off in talent and Lafreniere isnt generational. Several times in the past few years the first overall has not panned out as the clear best. We know that from both ends of the spectrum with Draisaitl breaking out and Yak busting out.
    -The league will collectively lose its shit. I think it would be hilarious and wouldnt care, but prepare to never win a 50/50 call from refs ever again…they already hate McDavid it seems. Trading down negates that slightly and is worth mentioning I think.
    -Cap implications down the line. Id rather have a bit more fleshed out forward core than one more superstar whos 1OA pedigree will influence negotiations.
    -Lafreniere is ready now but if you picked Stutzle or Byfield then Holtz they may not be very far off either. Two play in mens leagues already and one is a physical giant.
    -As much as the RNH-Drai-Yamo line was magical, youd be able to reunite McD and Draisaitl and would almost have to for cap implications. As tempting as those two would be as great linemates for McDavid (finally), he would pump their numbers so ghastly we would never be able to retain them long. However, Nuge, a helicopter line veteran, would finally have some dynamic wings to create a killer second line. Imagine in a little over a year:

    Drai-McD-Yamo
    Stutzle/Byfield-RNH-Holtz

    Absolutely nuclear and Id do it in a heartbeat.

  79. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Lowetide: 1. I’d say three full NHL seasons. Bear, who was a fine rookie, may beat that number but he could also take a step back. Defense is an insanely difficult position.
    2. Mike Green if he’s inexpensive would be a good addition

    Thanks. I guess a wrinkle in this is if Larsson can no longer play a season and has to go on LTIR re: the persistent bad back rumours…
    Never a dull moment on the Oilers RD

  80. Bling says:

    Agree with keeping all of Larsson, Nurse, and Klef.

    I would also hold on to Benning. At 2 million, he isn’t breaking the bank, and that way there is really no rush on Bouchard. By the way, all Benning has done as a third pairing D is exceed expectations. You need 10 D to get through a season anyways.

    Conservative off-season, please.

    Move on from Russell, bring back AA, and hopefully add JP.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    Another random thought after reading the Custance article at the Athletic.
    If there really is going to be a flat cap for the next 2 or 3 years, teams are going to be scrambling to trade overpriced contracts. Logic then says that this is going to be extremely difficult, and expensive (in terms of added assets), to do.
    Does this not make a Neal buyout all the more likely to happen?
    And is this not the most cost effective way of creating cap space given the new reality of a flat cap?

    I don’t think there is any doubt that buying out Neal creates immediate cap space that could be used to improve the team. The concern is if it is worth the yearly $2M of pain in those additional 3 years.

    Of course, i’m on record as being generally against it, however, it Holland has real use for that money that will create a material immediate and medium term benefit, if there is no other option then, yes, it may be the “right choice”.

    Dead cap is one of the things killing Holland’s ability to improve the team right now and its demoralizing adding more of it in the future even if it benefits the present.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    2020, man…

    I am really disappointed with the results this past week but not as much with the effort as many here and on Twitter seem to be.

    When I see stats showing the Oiler’s expected goal share in the series or that three Oilers were amongst the play-in round’s top GameScore players I am comforted that while it was chaotic hockey, luck (in this case bad) played a much bigger part than design.

    There are problems to be fixed here, to be sure, but I am more optimistic about this team today than I’ve been in years.Seriously.

    One of the reasons I love coming here is that without being snobbish about it, this is a math-friendly, site.We try to look at this game we love and this team we love with some systematic rigor.We shy away from the “try harder” narratives of the MSM and the casual fans.Doesn’t mean we don’t value grit and effort but we want to see the numbers.

    Therefore the ashes and sackcloth routine has been disappointing to see.Ya, we lost.It sucks.We should have beaten Chicago (and the numbers agree with that) but we didn’t.To the extent that we can put any weight on what was happening when the League paused in March, the Oilers and Hawks were essentially tied from October 15th on.The Oil opened hot, the Hawks didn’t and from then on they were both playing equally well/bad.This was not the upset that the Habs-Pens was.

    To paraphrase Capt. Jean-Luc Picard: “It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose.That is not a weakness, that is life.”Now the Oilers certainly made mistakes, but so did the Hawks and so will the eventual Cup winner.Frozen ice and rubber pucks.By mid-October 30 teams will be wondering what went wrong.

    Our big guns came out firing.Sorry but Toronto’s Nuclear line was snuffed out twice in five games.

    Koskinen was average – but that’s what he is, average.23rd best regular season sv% (tied with Crawford for 17th best among goalies playing 15 or more games) and he’s the 20th highest salary.How does Florida’s GM feel about his elite goalie investment today, oh right it cost him his job.

    I was sooooo hoping that AA could have cashed one or two in the last few games.He was starting to click but the tumblers didn’t fall into place.I am convinced that they will and that the bet was a reasonable one.

    Our young defense (Bear, Jones, Bouchard, Broberg) all took fantastic and measurable steps forwardThis is so impressive to see.

    There are even positive sounds coming from Finland regarding Jesse Puljujarvi.Seriously, so much to be upbeat about.

    I think we should have beaten the Hawks but even if we had, was this a Cup challenger?I think we could have gotten past Dallas and that experience would have been a good for everyone (especially us fans) but even if we DON’T with the Lafreniere sweepstakes in 2 and a half hours, I still think this may be a blessing a disguise.

    Get good players, keep good players.Good doesn’t mean perfect but trading Nurse or Klefbom, not resigning Atheneseau out of our emotional reaction to a 4 game series, in a bubble, in a pandemic is the very definition of an overreaction.

    Fingers crossed.Better odds than McDavid.We wait…

    Excellent post and I agree with most of it. Just push back a bit on the narrative that the Hawks were just as good as the Oil except for a hot start.

    The Oil were 10-7-3 in their last 20 and +5. The Hawks were 8-10-2 and -3 in their last 20. The Hawks are a bad team. They had a hot run mid season.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: As long as they retain 1.5 million throughout the contract

    $7M for a 60-65 point winger is high.

    Of course, he’s only 24.

    Not sure who exactly he’s played with generally out east but I presume he’d score at increased levels as an Oiler – just a presumption though – could end up wrong.

  84. dustrock says:

    iHockeyWpg:
    I am predicting a Winnipeg Jets lottery win this evening.

    Yeah, feels like a Winnipeg or Nashville kinda day.

    But because it’s 2020, it will be Toronto.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: 1. I’d say three full NHL seasons. Bear, who was a fine rookie, may beat that number but he could also take a step back. Defense is an insanely difficult position.
    2. Mike Green if he’s inexpensive would be a good addition

    How inexpensive would Green be though? I see some suggestions of $1M for one year and I just don’t see it.

    I don’t imagine he signs with the Oilers for less than $2M (and may even require more). Personally, I’d rather have Matt Benning at that price in particular as I’d give him at least 2 years of term to satisfy expansion draft exposure requirements and I wouldn’t want to give term to Green.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Speaking of Krusty’s style of play, did anybody else enjoy seeing Klefbom laying prone on the ice defending, what’s with that?

    He took after Nurse (who was doing it on the PK) who took after Rusty…..

    I don’t imagine this was Playfair instruction but maybe?

  87. Doug McLachlan says:

    JimmyV1965: So if we add these last 4 games…Oilers are 11-10-3 in their last 24 and +4, the Hawks are 12-11-2 and -2. Point is, the gap is not as big as 5th vs 12th implied.

    So if we add these last 4 games…Oilers are 11-10-3 in their last 24 and +4, the Hawks are 12-11-2 and -2. Point is, the gap is not as big as 5th vs 12th implied.

  88. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock: Yeah, feels like a Winnipeg or Nashville kinda day.

    But because it’s 2020, it will be Toronto.

    Everyone else will be thinking because it’s 2020 it will be Edmonton. 🙂

    Team E should be Edmonton, no?

  89. jp says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: The net difference being 1.75mil, that’s less than what we’d likely have to pay for a comparable player. I guess I’m assuming Russell is a sunk cost in so far as getting out of his cap hit is concerned. There may well be teams that a deal could be made to work, but I think they’d be cap neutral.

    Yeah we’ll see what Holland can do.

    My hope is that Russell can be moved with half retained or for an actual cap neutral player (like Sutter as is often mentioned). Either of those would be preferable IMO to Stepan, who I don’t think is any better at his actual job than Russell is (though I could be wrong on that).

    If it was a cap neutral move I’d be on board for sure.

  90. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: tileguy:
    Speaking of Krusty’s style of play, did anybody else enjoy seeing Klefbom laying prone on the ice defending, what’s with that?

    He took after Nurse (who was doing it on the PK) who took after Rusty…..

    I don’t imagine this was Playfair instruction but maybe?

    Maybe its contagious like many bad habits…?

  91. jeetz says:

    godot10,

    2 rounds only in a snake draft format. the rest are Free agents

  92. tavvey tune says:

    Nix:
    Why trade 1 for 3 and 5?
    -Supposed bumper crop of top end forwards this year. Not a huge drop off in talent and Lafreniere isnt generational. Several times in the past few years the first overall has not panned out as the clear best. We know that from both ends of the spectrum with Draisaitl breaking out and Yak busting out.
    -The league will collectively lose its shit. I think it would be hilarious and wouldnt care, but prepare to never win a 50/50 call from refs ever again…they already hate McDavid it seems. Trading down negates that slightly and is worth mentioning I think.
    -Cap implications down the line. Id rather have a bit more fleshed out forward core than one more superstar whos 1OA pedigree will influence negotiations.
    -Lafreniere is ready now but if you picked Stutzle or Byfield then Holtz they may not be very far off either. Two play in mens leagues already and one is a physical giant.
    -As much as the RNH-Drai-Yamo line was magical, youd be able to reunite McD and Draisaitl and would almost have to for cap implications. As tempting as those two would be as great linemates for McDavid (finally), he would pump their numbers so ghastly we would never be able to retain them long. However, Nuge, a helicopter line veteran, would finally have some dynamic wings to create a killer second line. Imagine in a little over a year:

    Drai-McD-Yamo
    Stutzle/Byfield-RNH-Holtz

    Absolutely nuclear and Id do it in a heartbeat.

    I like it too! We’re short on supporting actors. We already have two leading men. That’s a scary top 6.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Seems that all the other major sports use a draft with choices based on inverse order of finish. The NHL decided to throw in the lottery aspect for teams that finished out of the playoffs. They tried to fix what wasn’t broken. The Montreal dynasty was fuelled in great part by the fact that once upon a time Montreal got first pick of all Quebec Born players. All other players were picked on choices based on inverse order of finish.

    If I remember correctly, the inserted the lottery to avoid tanking and the Oilers finishing last twice.

    Of course, the Oilers have only finished last twice but have four first round picks – them switching to the lottery, to stop the Oilers, led to two additional first overall picks.

    I could be a bit wrong on the exact reasoning they inserted the lottery though.

  94. Dee Dee says:

    I always view this day as the Walk of Atonement from Game of Thrones.

    Shame! Shame! Shame!

  95. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Dee Dee:
    I always view this day as the Walk of Atonement from Game of Thrones.

    Shame! Shame! Shame!

    I have a couple hands full of feces to throw.

  96. Kraz says:

    Nix:
    Why trade 1 for 3 and 5?
    -Supposed bumper crop of top end forwards this year. Not a huge drop off in talent and Lafreniere isnt generational. Several times in the past few years the first overall has not panned out as the clear best. We know that from both ends of the spectrum with Draisaitl breaking out and Yak busting out.
    -The league will collectively lose its shit. I think it would be hilarious and wouldnt care, but prepare to never win a 50/50 call from refs ever again…they already hate McDavid it seems. Trading down negates that slightly and is worth mentioning I think.
    -Cap implications down the line. Id rather have a bit more fleshed out forward core than one more superstar whos 1OA pedigree will influence negotiations.
    -Lafreniere is ready now but if you picked Stutzle or Byfield then Holtz they may not be very far off either. Two play in mens leagues already and one is a physical giant.
    -As much as the RNH-Drai-Yamo line was magical, youd be able to reunite McD and Draisaitl and would almost have to for cap implications. As tempting as those two would be as great linemates for McDavid (finally), he would pump their numbers so ghastly we would never be able to retain them long. However, Nuge, a helicopter line veteran, would finally have some dynamic wings to create a killer second line. Imagine in a little over a year:

    Drai-McD-Yamo
    Stutzle/Byfield-RNH-Holtz

    Absolutely nuclear and Id do it in a heartbeat.

    Thing is if you miss on one of those picks you really screw yourself. Lafreniere is a as close to a sure thing as there is. A Matthews, Eichel, Tavares, Laine type prospect.

  97. DieHard says:

    Worse case regarding KRussell and no trade available would a buyout be OK? Save 1M in first year and cost 1/2M the following.

  98. Nix says:

    Dee Dee:
    I always view this day as the Walk of Atonement from Game of Thrones.

    Shame! Shame! Shame!

    In a perfect world we’d also have a morbid redemption scene a season later. Tkachuk tied to a dungeon table as Connor sips meade from a large Stanley chalice. In walks a hulking masked Kassian.
    “Id like to introduce you to a friend of mine. Hes truculent too..”

  99. dustrock says:

    Doug McLachlan: Everyone else will be thinking because it’s 2020 it will be Edmonton. 🙂

    Team E should be Edmonton, no?

    You are all NPCs in my life, dammit!

  100. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: So if we add these last 4 games…Oilers are 11-10-3 in their last 24 and +4, the Hawks are 12-11-2 and -2. Point is, the gap is not as big as 5th vs 12th implied.

    Two wins and five losses since breaking up the Draisaitl Uber Line, I think, and one of the wins was an exhibition game.

  101. Nix says:

    Kraz: Thing is if you miss on one of those picks you really screw yourself. Lafreniere is a as close to a sure thing as there is. A Matthews, Eichel, Tavares, Laine type prospect.

    Agreed. And hes ready now. Id still do it.

  102. godot10 says:

    jeetz:
    godot10,

    2 rounds only in a snake draft format. the rest are Free agents

    That is worse than the current situation. The small market teams can dominate in a hard cap 50 contract limit world, because the big markets will be capped out with established stars.

    The small markets get the pick of the litter. If one is a well manage teams, the best prospects will come to you.

    What you propose is worse for small markets than the existing situation, since you take the best prospects out of the market system.

    A wide open system with a hard cap and a 50 contract limit rewards competent organizations.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    It’s almost time.

    There won’t be a drawn out reveal of cards (based on results of a complex mechanism involving codes and balls) but a live reveal – 8 balls with team logos – one gets chosen.

    Let’s do this!

  104. Tesla's Hair says:

    LT, could you imagine there would be any possible scenarios where you would consider trading up for multiple picks on Lafreniere so we can attain balance? Or does LaF give us more chances of playoff/cap success next year?

  105. dessert1111 says:

    If the Oilers don’t win, I hope it’s Nashville. Would be fine with Winnipeg or Pittsburgh.

    If Toronto wins I’ll lose my mind.

  106. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Minnesota or Nashville would be fine. In fact, I’d be curious to see what shook loose from the Preds if they won. I could stomach Florida, but only because they’re in the East. Everyone else is a big ol “I’d really rather they not” or “fuck no”.

  107. pts2pndr says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: The net difference being 1.75mil, that’s less than what we’d likely have to pay for a comparable player. I guess I’m assuming Russell is a sunk cost in so far as getting out of his cap hit is concerned. There may well be teams that a deal could be made to work, but I think they’d be cap neutral.

    When you get in a hole the first order of business is to stop digging. Worse case scenario is Russel is easily traceable at the trade deadline. Why add misery and pain given we are about to have an abbreviated season.

  108. Reja says:

    Let’s go Oilers. Let’s go Oilers. Let’s go Oilers….

  109. Tesla's Hair says:

    Where can i stream? Bilasport doesnt have it?

  110. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    pts2pndr: When you get in a holethe first order of business is to stop digging. Worse case scenario is Russel is easily traceable at the trade deadline. Why add misery and pain given we are about to have an abbreviated season.

    Because I think Stepan would be a really solid fit at 3C for a year and perhaps beyond at a much lower hit. Both contracts are up at the end of the year so it’s not digging too deep. I view it as the Russell for Sutter trade but for a better version of Sutter.

  111. Reja says:

    Burke is whining hard Oilers and Kevin Lowe are going to win. I can feel it as Bon Jovi once said you gotta have Faith.

  112. dessert1111 says:

    I’m watching at onhockey

  113. Ice Sage says:

    Reja:
    Burke is whining hard Oilers and Kevin Lowe are going to win. I can feel it as Bon Jovi once said you gotta have Faith.

    Ah, but do you feel it as George Michael did?

  114. JOFA says:

    Oiler ball weighted differently😉

  115. JOFA says:

    Rangers. Better out east

  116. dessert1111 says:

    Lol the guy drops the Rangers ball by accident, cue the controversy!

  117. geowal says:

    Guy dropped the Ranger Ball! Rigged!

  118. Tarkus says:

    Alexis LafreNYRe

  119. Ice Sage says:

    OK, that distraction’s over.
    Let the long autumn begin…

  120. Lucinius says:

    Looking at how it was done; boy would that be insanely easy to rig, even to varying degrees (i.e.; from merely reducing the odds for certain teams to picking one team and ensuring it’d get picked).

    I don’t mind the Rangers winning. I wanted anyone but Toronto, Pittsburgh, or Minnesota.

  121. Jaxon says:

    Rangers! Jeff Gorton has really built an amazing group of prospects and they just got incredible. He’s going to build another cup winner after building the Bruins cup winners. Finally, he may get the recognition he deserved instead of Chiarelli. Happy for him and Rangers fans. Well, at least we’re drafting 14th. That will be a substantial prospect (Askarov, Jarvis, Zary, Schneider, etc). There will be some great options at #14. I’m hoping for Zary although Askarov would be tempting at #14 if he’s still available.

  122. Jaxon says:

    It’s a pretty good place for Lafreniere to land. A huge market for a star and a young upstart team. They’ll be contenders soon. They’ve got a lot of depth coming.

  123. Justthestatsman says:

    If it can’t be us, glad it’s in the east and not Toronto!

  124. jake70 says:

    Rangers got Panarin. They get every free agent they want. It’s like cap relief, high picks , however you want to characterize it. Irritating for me.

  125. Professor Q says:

    I know conspiracy theories are rabbit holes, but I mean how convenient was it that the only ball that Secret Agent Man dropped prematurely without Bettman’s confirmation, and had to be fished out to be dropped again, was the one that won?

  126. ArmchairGM says:

    NHL got it’s preferred outcome.

  127. CrazyCoach says:

    OriginalPouzar: He took after Nurse (who was doing it on the PK) who took after Rusty…..

    I don’t imagine this was Playfair instruction but maybe?

    As a fellow Fort St James boy like Playfair, I can guarantee he didn’t teach that crap. It just isn’t the Fort way.

  128. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Hmmm, interesting result.

    Thoughts on Lundell as the pick, an apparently NHL-ready 3C who could center Jesse.

    I hadn’t really considered him until now and other than concerns with footspeed, he gets rave reviews.

  129. ArmchairGM says:

    I wonder if they trade back to get Stutzle or Byfield? I think center is an area of great need there.

  130. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    For the 14th spot, EDM should keep the pick and choose the best F left on the board at the time:

    RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL.
    LC Connor Zary, WHL.

    LC Anton Lundell, Liiga.
    RC Seth Jarvis, WHL.
    RW Noel Gunler, SHL.

    RC Jacob Perreault, OHL.

    I was looking for RC options in the league the other day…not a lot of options…they are almost as rare as RD were a few years ago until now (still a hot commodity).

  131. Kraz says:

    That was bullshit. Guy dropped the rangers ball and then picks it up again. And he was staring directly at the balls and their logos before he pressed the button!!! Not the best look for the league

  132. Darth Tu says:

    Professor Q:
    I know conspiracy theories are rabbit holes, but I mean how convenient was it that the only ball that Secret Agent Man dropped prematurely without Bettman’s confirmation, and had to be fished out to be dropped again, was the one that won?

    Aye – i’d redraw. I almost feel like they should run the draw 1000 times and award the pick to the team with the highest aggregate score.

  133. Nix says:

    My first thought (as a joke) was this is totally rigged, lol. Then I hop on twitter and get post after post of THIS IS TOTALLY RIGGED!!!!!

    It is, without question, a boon for the league that their big US markets pick (lotto lucked) 1 and 2 in the middle of a revenue crippling pandemic. I’ll just stop right there. :p

  134. Nix says:

    ‘Hey Gary…clear that dark smoky room fog from your eyes and call the logos on the balls so folks absolutely know this is legit.”

  135. Android says:

    Lucinius:
    Looking at how it was done; boy would that be insanely easy to rig, even to varying degrees (i.e.; from merely reducing the odds for certain teams to picking one team and ensuring it’d get picked).

    I don’t mind the Rangers winning. I wanted anyone but Toronto, Pittsburgh, or Minnesota.

    I’m not going to subscribe to silly conspiracies, but I’m surprised they didn’t have the Ernst and Young employee turn around. The fact he was looking right at the machine is going to supply a lot of fuel for those fires.

  136. Reja says:

    Well least he’s heading out east. Now we get to watch Flames and the Canucks , you know teams that are into it.

  137. Lucinius says:

    Android,

    I do not think it was rigged, personally, albeit my main reasoning for that is that I think if the NHL tried to rig it they would somehow mess it up and it would either be blatantly obvious or backfire and a team like Edmonton would win.

    It’s just that the methodology they used makes it extremely easy to have rigged it, combined with the ball flub and the guy looking at the balls when he triggered it makes it ‘feel’ sketchy even if it isn’t.

    Basically, as per normal the NHL did things in the most laughable, pathetic way possible, while thinking they were doing an excellent job.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    Rags are hoping Lundqvist retires. Strome Deangelo were going to eat all the cap they had

  139. Harpers Hair says:

    Interesting lottery result.

    The Rangers are loaded at LW with Panarin an Kreider locked up for another 5 seasons.

    I wonder if they’ll look at moving the #1 for a haul.

    Perhaps they swap out of the top pick with LA, take Byfield and get another centre from the vast LA prospect pool.

  140. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Rags are hoping Lundqvist retires.Strome Deangelo were going to eat all the cap they had

    They could also buy him out.
    First year cap hit would be $5.5 million while the second year is only $1.5 million.

  141. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    All aboard the Mavrik Mobile!!!

  142. pts2pndr says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Because I think Stepan would be a really solid fit at 3C for a year and perhaps beyond at a much lower hit. Both contracts are up at the end of the year so it’s not digging too deep. I view it as the Russell for Sutter trade but for a better version of Sutter.

    That’s valid! My thought is that Russel gives you cover shot term at right D. What I don’t want to see is mortgaging the future. Russel will bring a mid round pick at the trade deadline and or be good insurance for the Oilers depending on how things play out. In my opinion Benning is the player you move out dependant on what your future plans are for Larsson. Holland is blessed with a number of moves he can make with his D. Staying the course with Larson Klefbom Bear and Nurse is the prudent thing to do as I see it at least short term. By my read of the post game interview Tippett was not pleased with Nurse’s assessment. It may be his moving Kassian was an attempt to send a message to the team after a couple of penalties in the first game loss. When you castrate your top two studs you can’t expect a lot of truculence from the balance of the roster.

  143. godot10 says:

    Lundqvist is probably just crossing the Hudson to play in New Jersey. Rangers will eat half the cap. NJD gets a vet to pair with Blackwood. Yes it is a rival, but Lundqvist probably doesn’t want to leave the New York area.

  144. godot10 says:

    I wonder what the Flames would think of Kris Russell (50% retained) for Sam Bennett. (or Derek Ryan, no salary retention on Russell).

    It probably depends on what happens with all of the UFA’s on Calgary’s blue whether they want a cheap veteran to be #7.

    Bennett has never really fit in there. One figures Gawdin is about ready for a spot. And they will need every penny if they are bringing in Hall.

    Kris Russell for Derek Ryan, perhaps.

    (I sort of want to run Athanasiou, McDavid, Bennett OR Bennett, McDavid, Puljujarvi).

    Worst case, you get a 3rd line centre out of Bennett.

    Athanasiou, Bennett, Kassian/Archibald. Bennett will stir stuff up, which would wake Kassian out of his all too frequent slumber.

  145. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM:
    NHL got it’s preferred outcome.

    +1🙈 Largest market win!
    #follow the money

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling:
    Agree with keeping all of Larsson, Nurse, and Klef.

    I would also hold on to Benning. At 2 million, he isn’t breaking the bank, and that way there is really no rush on Bouchard. By the way, all Benning has done as a third pairing D is exceed expectations. You need 10 D to get through a season anyways.

    Conservative off-season, please.

    Move on from Russell, bring back AA, and hopefully add JP.

    Agree with all this.

    Is Benning overpaid at $2M? Maybe but I’m not even so sure. He is really good at the 3RD job and some think he has more to give when necessary – numbers back that up (his numbers with Klef) even if the coaching staff have been very reluctant to try it.

    Either way, I don’t think a potential hundred grand over pay on Benning (if that’s even the case) is where the team needs to look to cut cap – well, unless, he’s a required piece of a deal that makes real sense.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    DieHard:
    Worse case regarding KRussell and no trade available would a buyout be OK? Save 1M in first year and cost 1/2M the following.

    All that does for 2020/21 is create the roster spot as the cap hit of the replacement (Lagesson as 7D) will take the cap savings. Is that worth the dead cap hit?

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: When you get in a holethe first order of business is to stop digging. Worse case scenario is Russel is easily traceable at the trade deadline. Why add misery and pain given we are about to have an abbreviated season.

    I agree with the “stop digging” – the team needs to get rid of dead cap hits, not incur more (hence the hesitation on a Neal buyout even considering the savings in the first three years).

    With respect to the secondary point, I agree that he would likely be very tradeable at the deadline but that doesn’t help Holland’s team building in the off-season (and, of course, I think we all hope that we aren’t selling players at the deadline, right?).

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Hmmm, interesting result.

    Thoughts on Lundell as the pick, an apparently NHL-ready 3C who could center Jesse.

    I hadn’t really considered him until now and other than concerns with footspeed, he gets rave reviews.

    I have read/heard “buyer beware” on Lundell from a few, namely Sean Patrick Ryan (although he’s more of a CHL prospects guy but generally has good thoughts).

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Isn’t the fact that the Oilers won the lottery for McDavid pretty much irrefutable evidence that the NHL does not rig draft lotteries to try and place players in their preferred regions?

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Rags are hoping Lundqvist retires.Strome Deangelo were going to eat all the cap they had

    Yup, the Rangers are in cap hell and, although Alexis L. will have a low base ELC cap hit, he very well be a $4M cap hit by vesting his bonuses.

    Maybe they need to retain half on Ludquist and trade him to Edmonton?

    With their cap situation, I know its effed for this coming year but I think it clears up a bit after that so taking a bonus penalty for 2021/22 may be fine for them.

  152. Harpers Hair says:

    Lundqvist has a full NMC.

    He will pick his destination (or not) and it certainly won’t be Edmonton.

  153. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Lundqvist has a full NMC.

    He will pick his destination (or not) and it certainly won’t be Edmonton.

    His only options are stay in New York for one more year, get bought out, or retire
    No one wants him at this point
    5.5 mil buyout for next season is a killer for them

  154. Glovjuice says:

    jtblack:
    keep the train on the tracks … Edmonton showed the most * balance * that we have seen in years.

    Edm was .0005% from being a Top 4 seed for the playoffs. Their regular season was far better than most predicted.They have 2 elite centres and quality NHL D running 8 – 10 deep.

    Obviously Holland needs to shore up bottom six and scoring wingers, but he can do that.Goaltending also needs to be better for the long haul.

    Some tweaks here and there, will have this team competing in the playoffs for the next 5 years.

    Stay the Course Ken.Don’t PC this team.Stay the course.

    I def try to move on from Russell, but that may not be possible.I start next season with RNH-DRAI-YAMO and see if they can recreate themselves as a dominant line.

    If LAFR lands in our laps, there is a bona fide plug and play Top 6.If not, Edm is set to get an excellent prospect @ #14 (14 or 15?) ..

    Go Oilers.!

    Here’s the thing. The Oilers don’t have a quality NHL D 8-10 deep. They have a passable NHL D. And, if you factor in speed across their D complement, how much Larson amd Klefbomb are injured, and how overrated Jones, bear and nurse really are they are barely passable.

  155. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Lundqvist has a full NMC.

    He will pick his destination (or not) and it certainly won’t be Edmonton.

    How do you know maybe he’s buddies with Larsson and kelfbom maybe he sees himself taking a one year run with Mcdavid and company stranger things have happened.

  156. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have read/heard “buyer beware” on Lundell from a few, namely Sean Patrick Ryan (although he’s more of a CHL prospects guy but generally has good thoughts).

    I read that too, but check this out. This goes much deeper than opinion and video analysis.

    Lundell is now my #1 target for the Oil

    https://www.silversevensens.com/2020/6/24/21301480/2020-nhl-draft-profile-anton-lundell-ottawa-senators-liiga-nhl

  157. €√¥£€^$ says:

    godot10:
    I wonder what the Flames would think of Kris Russell (50% retained) for Sam Bennett.(or Derek Ryan, no salary retention on Russell).

    It probably depends on what happens with all of the UFA’s on Calgary’s blue whether they want a cheap veteran to be #7.

    Bennett has never really fit in there. One figures Gawdin is about ready for a spot.And they will need every penny if they are bringing in Hall.

    Kris Russell for Derek Ryan, perhaps.

    (I sort of want to run Athanasiou, McDavid, BennettOR Bennett, McDavid, Puljujarvi).

    Worst case, you get a 3rd line centre out of Bennett.

    Athanasiou, Bennett, Kassian/Archibald.Bennett will stir stuff up, which would wake Kassian out of his all too frequent slumber.

    I’d be all over Derek Ryan as a 4C.

    He’d be a great placeholder for McLeod for 1 year or so.

  158. Professor Q says:

    Anyone have thoughts on Peterka?

    It seems the consensus is encircling Jarvis, Askarov, Reichel, Perreault, and maybe Bourque or Zary if they fall.

    I’ve heard the name but to be honest I haven’t looked into any of the prospects this season at all.

  159. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: How inexpensive would Green be though? I see some suggestions of $1M for one year and I just don’t see it.

    I don’t imagine he signs with the Oilers for less than $2M (and may even require more).Personally, I’d rather have Matt Benning at that price in particular as I’d give him at least 2 years of term to satisfy expansion draft exposure requirements and I wouldn’t want to give term to Green.

    No to Green. Didn’t show up when it counted.

  160. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Professor Q:
    Anyone have thoughts on Peterka?

    It seems the consensus is encircling Jarvis, Askarov, Reichel, Perrault, and maybe Bourque or Zary if they fall.

    I’ve heard the name but to be honest I haven’t looked into any of the prospects this season at all.

    He will be picked somewhere between 20-22, unless there is an unexpected run on Dmen.

    I have Reichel a few spots ahead of him.

  161. flyfish1168 says:

    godot10:
    I wonder what the Flames would think of Kris Russell (50% retained) for Sam Bennett.(or Derek Ryan, no salary retention on Russell).

    It probably depends on what happens with all of the UFA’s on Calgary’s blue whether they want a cheap veteran to be #7.

    Bennett has never really fit in there. One figures Gawdin is about ready for a spot.And they will need every penny if they are bringing in Hall.

    Kris Russell for Derek Ryan, perhaps.

    (I sort of want to run Athanasiou, McDavid, BennettOR Bennett, McDavid, Puljujarvi).

    Worst case, you get a 3rd line centre out of Bennett.

    Athanasiou, Bennett, Kassian/Archibald.Bennett will stir stuff up, which would wake Kassian out of his all too frequent slumber.

    It would take a lot to get Bennett out of Calgary. They love his truculence. They absolutely will not take Russell back. They have enough Dmen at the farm to cover.

  162. godot10 says:

    How would Green be an option? The current bubble is far less risky from a Covid perspective than next season will be. If he didn’t want to play in a bubble, there is no way he plays next year.

  163. flyfish1168 says:

    godot10:
    I wonder what the Flames would think of Kris Russell (50% retained) for Sam Bennett.(or Derek Ryan, no salary retention on Russell).

    It probably depends on what happens with all of the UFA’s on Calgary’s blue whether they want a cheap veteran to be #7.

    Bennett has never really fit in there. One figures Gawdin is about ready for a spot.And they will need every penny if they are bringing in Hall.

    Kris Russell for Derek Ryan, perhaps.

    (I sort of want to run Athanasiou, McDavid, BennettOR Bennett, McDavid, Puljujarvi).

    Worst case, you get a 3rd line centre out of Bennett.

    Athanasiou, Bennett, Kassian/Archibald.Bennett will stir stuff up, which would wake Kassian out of his all too frequent slumber.

    It would take a lot to get Bennett out of Calgary. They love his truculence. They absolutely will not take Russell back. They have enough Dmen at the farm to cover.

    OriginalPouzar:
    Isn’t the fact that the Oilers won the lottery for McDavid pretty much irrefutable evidence that the NHL does not rig draft lotteries to try and place players in their preferred regions?

    That process was different with numbered balls. This one he can clearly see which team logo ball was near the tunnel.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    I wonder what the Flames would think of Kris Russell (50% retained) for Sam Bennett.(or Derek Ryan, no salary retention on Russell).

    It probably depends on what happens with all of the UFA’s on Calgary’s blue whether they want a cheap veteran to be #7.

    Bennett has never really fit in there. One figures Gawdin is about ready for a spot.And they will need every penny if they are bringing in Hall.

    Kris Russell for Derek Ryan, perhaps.

    (I sort of want to run Athanasiou, McDavid, BennettOR Bennett, McDavid, Puljujarvi).

    Worst case, you get a 3rd line centre out of Bennett.

    Athanasiou, Bennett, Kassian/Archibald.Bennett will stir stuff up, which would wake Kassian out of his all too frequent slumber.

    With Gio, Hannifin, Valimaki and Kylington, I don’t think they will be looking at Rusty and they’d probably re-sign Fobert if they wanted a depth guy – not to mention Gustafsson.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: I read that too, but check this out.This goes much deeper than opinion and video analysis.

    Lundell is now my #1 target for the Oil

    https://www.silversevensens.com/2020/6/24/21301480/2020-nhl-draft-profile-anton-lundell-ottawa-senators-liiga-nhl

    Thank you for that – very detailed write up.

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: I’d be all over Derek Ryan as a 4C.

    He’d be a great placeholder for McLeod for 1 year or so.

    I think he’d be the 3C on the Oilers – 30 points and $3.1M.

    I would love for Haas to show that type of offensive production next year but he’s likely more suited to the 4C role.

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: No to Green. Didn’t show up when it counted.

    didn’t show up because of a world wide pandemic due to a virus and having a history of viral infections that attacked his liver causing him to shut down seasons.

    I don’t want Green back either (I was hopeful for him to play in the playoffs and show what he’s got left) but can’t agree at all with the reason above.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    That process was different with numbered balls. This one he can clearly see which team logo ball was near the tunnel.

    I understand the differences in how the two lotteries were held.

    I’m talking about the premise of the NHL fixing lotteries – if that is something they did, or were willing to do, Connor McDavid would not be an Oiler.

    The NHL does not fix lotteries.

  169. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: didn’t show up because of a world wide pandemic due to a virus and having a history of viral infections that attacked his liver causing him to shut down seasons.

    I don’t want Green back either (I was hopeful for him to play in the playoffs and show what he’s got left) but can’t agree at all with the reason above.

    You really must not base all your decisions on a four game sample size.

  170. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand the differences in how the two lotteries were held.

    I’m talking about the premise of the NHL fixing lotteries – if that is something they did, or were willing to do, Connor McDavid would not be an Oiler.

    The NHL does not fix lotteries.

    I agree it difficult to fix the lottery. This supplementary lottery I felt should be number balls with each team drawing a number without anyone knowing. Look at the picture in the Journal.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/new-york-rangers-win-the-alexis-lafreniere-lottery-edmonton-oilers-set-to-pick-14th

  171. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    €√¥£€^$: I read that too, but check this out.This goes much deeper than opinion and video analysis.

    Lundell is now my #1 target for the Oil

    https://www.silversevensens.com/2020/6/24/21301480/2020-nhl-draft-profile-anton-lundell-ottawa-senators-liiga-nhl

    Solid write-up on the guy. Thanks for sharing it! He’s someone I generally ignored when I saw early birthday and below-average skating; gonna have to look into him some more.

  172. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with the “stop digging” – the team needs to get rid of dead cap hits, not incur more (hence the hesitation on a Neal buyout even considering the savings in the first three years).

    With respect to the secondary point, I agree that he would likely be very tradeable at the deadline but that doesn’t help Holland’s team building in the off-season (and, of course, I think we all hope that we aren’t selling players at the deadline, right?).

    My thought is if you move Benning you are saving 2 million. If the teams intention is to protect 7-3 then you leave Larson unprotected. Depending on who the Kracken pick you still have a good right side although somewhat thin. Both Benning and Larsson have injury problems. Benning concussions and Larsson a bad back. Holland is savey enough, to take everything into account. As fans we are not privy to many things. What may seem logical to us may in fact not be so.Nurse,Klefbom and Bear have to be protected. The upper limit for Jones and Lagesson are unknown at this time. Protecting four and four risks the loss of a winger that we don’t have cover for.

  173. Tarkus says:

    Pronman just put up a post-lottery mock draft on The Athletic.

    He has the Oilers taking a forward…but one who hasn’t been mentioned very often here. (I won’t mention who, respecting LT’s 24-hour article embargo.)

    However, he also says that if Askarov gets past Minny at 9, the goalie is a possibility at 14.

  174. Sunnyboy says:

    Boy oh boy, a 2player team misses the playoffs 3 years in a row with 97 and 29and the #5D, KR4 is the scapegoat, send him out. Bring back the same cast next year and expect better results, what does that mean again! A borderline playoff team is their ceiling, we have a 3 year sample, that’s OK! KH should bring back Gagner and Green, what a help! The balance photo is near the end of a rainbow I fear.
    Woodguy on Bob’s show this aft mentioned Larson, I concur. Jones and Lagesson are seasoned and ready for prime time.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: You really must not base all your decisions on a four game sample size.

    I don’t know what you are talking about, seriously.

    I would not bring Green back for anything more than a nominal amount as he in regression and coming off a poor season as part of that regression. To the extent the Oilers made a 2, 3, 4 round run and Green showed well, that would show me that he had something left that maybe warranted a real contract.

    He didn’t do that so I’m not willing to give the man such a contract.

    I disagree with the original suggestion that “he didn’t show up when it mattered”, which I took as a jab to his opting out, as a reason.

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: I agree it difficult to fix the lottery. This supplementary lottery I felt should be number balls with each team drawing a number without anyone knowing. Look at the picture in the Journal.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/new-york-rangers-win-the-alexis-lafreniere-lottery-edmonton-oilers-set-to-pick-14th

    The dude was looking at the machine? That is evidence that the NHL fixed the lottery?

    Sorry, can’t agree.

  177. Old Timer says:

    Given all the consternation about the Oilers goal tending in recent days, would it be a reasonable option to draft Askarov if he is still available? Strength down the middle is critical in todays NHL.

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: My thought is if you move Benning you are saving 2 million. If the teams intention is to protect 7-3 then you leave Larson unprotected. Depending on who the Kracken pick you still have a good right side although somewhat thin. Both Benning and Larsson have injury problems. Benning concussions and Larsson a bad back. Holland is savey enough, to take everything into account. As fans we are not privy to many things. What may seem logical to us may in fact not be so.Nurse,Klefbom and Bear have to be protected. The upper limit for Jones and Lagesson are unknown at this time. Protecting four and four risks the loss of a winger that we don’t have cover for.

    Trading Benning doesn’t save $2M though, it saves $1M when accounting for his replacement on the roster (shit, if Bouch hits his bonuses, it saves $400K).

    Benning is essentially value for his $2M, at least in my opinion, and he plays a position where the team currently lacks NHL proven depth.

    Russell is not value for his $4M and plays a position where the the org has the deepest organizational depth and there is a roster replacement for $850K that is, arguably, better than him.

    Of course, one is much easier to move than the other and would get an asset back as oppossed to having negative value but that is because of the difference in their caps and their performance, in my opinion.

    Of course, Bear, Nurse and Klefbom are no-brainer protects.

    I don’t see Larsson protected even if re-signed.

    Whether they go 7-3-1 or 4-4 will depend on so many moving parts including:

    – Nuge re-signing before or not
    – Jones’ development over the next year
    – development/performance of AA, Kassian, Benson, Puljujarvi and AA

    I’m totally speculating but I predict that, assuming a fullish NHL season for 2020/21, Jones may put himself in to the must-protect category.

  179. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    flyfish1168: I agree it difficult to fix the lottery. This supplementary lottery I felt should be number balls with each team drawing a number without anyone knowing. Look at the picture in the Journal.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/new-york-rangers-win-the-alexis-lafreniere-lottery-edmonton-oilers-set-to-pick-14th

    Holy shit check out how intense his eyes are focused on the ball when he hit the switch!!

  180. Pescador says:

    godot10: Kassian and Khaira for Kerfoot and Anderssen.Would you do it?

    Durag: And how many kilos of heroin am I smuggling in my anus to make this happen? Just a rhetorical question, obviously any real fan would make room no matter what.

    Make room for the trade or the heroin?

  181. Pescador says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Holy shit check out how intense his eyes are focused on the ball when he hit the switch!!

    I heard it was the only ball that was filled with helium,
    Total fix job

  182. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand the differences in how the two lotteries were held.

    I’m talking about the premise of the NHL fixing lotteries – if that is something they did, or were willing to do, Connor McDavid would not be an Oiler.

    The NHL does not fix lotteries.

    Ya but right after the Oilers won the McDavid,
    That’s was the moment when the NHL knew they had to start “fixing” it

  183. Material Elvis says:

    Old Timer:
    Given all the consternation about the Oilers goal tending in recent days, would it be a reasonable option to draft Askarov if he is still available? Strength down the middle is critical in todays NHL.

    The Oilers could also use a center prospect. Lundell could be a key player for them and he’s close to NHL ready. Goalies are risky but if he’s as good as advertised, then that is a good option. Trouble is, most goalies aren’t NHL ready for 4+ years. I don’t know if the team can pass on taking forward at #14.

  184. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Trading Benning doesn’t save $2M though, it saves $1M when accounting for his replacement on the roster (shit, if Bouch hits his bonuses, it saves $400K).

    Benning is essentially value for his $2M, at least in my opinion, and he plays a position where the team currently lacks NHL proven depth.

    Russell is not value for his $4M and plays a position where the the org has the deepest organizational depth and there is a roster replacement for $850K that is, arguably, better than him.

    Of course, one is much easier to move than the other and would get an asset back as oppossed to having negative value but that is because of the difference in their caps and their performance, in my opinion.

    Of course, Bear, Nurse and Klefbom are no-brainer protects.

    I don’t see Larsson protected even if re-signed.

    Whether they go 7-3-1 or 4-4 will depend on so many moving parts including:

    – Nuge re-signing before or not
    – Jones’ development over the next year
    – development/performance of AA, Kassian, Benson, Puljujarvi and AA

    I’m totally speculating but I predict that, assuming a fullish NHL season for 2020/21, Jones may put himself in to the must-protect category.

    I don’t disagree that he might, just that whom do you move. If you protect Jones it would indicate that you believe him to be a top a top four left D. If that is the case Holland has the luxury of being able to move one of Nurse or Klefbom to fill another roster hole. There are definitely a lot of moving parts.

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I wonder if they trade back to get Stutzle or Byfield? I think center is an area of great need there.

    1 ov can be a problem when generational talents aren’t there and management or ownership don’t have the courage of their convictions.

    Or they are wrong.

    The Oilers don’t need a W as bad as RSC.

    Of quality which these days usually means draft.

    Right shot players are gold jerry

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Boy oh boy, a 2player team misses the playoffs 3 years in a row with 97 and 29and the #5D, KR4 is the scapegoat, send him out. Bring back the same cast next year and expect better results, what does that mean again! A borderline playoff team is their ceiling, we have a 3 year sample, that’s OK! KH should bring back Gagner and Green, what a help! The balance photo is near the end of a rainbow I fear.Woodguy on Bob’s show this aft mentioned Larson, I concur. Jones and Lagesson are seasoned and ready for prime time.

    Yes, send Russell out, in the name of changing the team.

    As you said, Jones and Lagesson are ready for prime time – Russell blocks them.

    Russell also needs to be sent out because the $4M currently allocated to him needs to be used to upgrade at other areas.

    Russell would be a fine 6-7D, a great one perhaps, but he’s priced as a 2nd pairing D and there are adequate, more than adequate, replacements.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: I don’tdisagree that he might, just that whom do you move. If you protect Jones it would indicate that you believe him to be a top a top four left D. If that is the case Holland has the luxury of being able to move one of Nurse or Klefbom to fill another roster hole. There are definitely a lot of moving parts.

    That is a good question and is unknown at this time.

    If Jones has proven to be a legit top 4 LD then, yes, maybe it does give the team the ability to move on from Klef or Nurse for a value acquisition, however, the Godot theorem is indeed accurate and the team will need “veterans” in the age-range of those two.

    Having Jones, a legit top 4D (presumed) as 3LD is the type of depth the wins cups though….. of course, without moving on from one of the other two it requires a 4-4-1 and, if any of the above-listed forwards “pop” and Nuge is re-signed ahead of time, unless Kailer was a one-hit wonder….

  188. Faustkarz says:

    Thought Kailer looked as good as you could pragmatically expect from a 5’7″-8″ essentially rookie winger; even with accounting for his MVP-candidate centre

    as long as RNH is here, don’t see him on the PP for awhile; barring injury

  189. Sunnyboy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, send Russell out, in the name of changing the team.

    As you said, Jones and Lagesson are ready for prime time – Russell blocks them.

    Russell also needs to be sent out because the $4M currently allocated to him needs to be used to upgrade at other areas.

    Russell would be a fine 6-7D, a great one perhaps, but he’s priced as a 2nd pairing D and there are adequate, more than adequate, replacements.

    Hogwash and drip dry, save the salary of the clear #5 D, while keeping non performing forwards at higher salaries and Larson to boot. Talk about a story and a narrative, good job.

  190. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The dude was looking at the machine?That is evidence that the NHL fixed the lottery?

    Sorry, can’t agree.

    No No, i didn’t say it was fixed. But it can be viewed that it is since he is staring down at the balls and there is team logo on each one

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sunnyboy: Hogwash and drip dry, save the salary of the clear #5 D, while keeping non performing forwards athigher salariesand Larson to boot. Talk about a story and a narrative, good job.

    He’s unlikely to be the clear #5 next season and, even if he was, he is too expensive vis-a-vis the cap for the #5.

    There is a younger and arguably already superior player on the roster that can do the job for less than a quarter of the cap hit.

  192. Greenberg says:

    digger50,

    He wasn’t the only one.

  193. Material Elvis says:

    Dawson Mercer sounds like the ideal right winger for McDavid. Heavy shot, aggressive forechecker, high hockey IQ, defensively responsible. Tough to pass that up if he is available.

  194. Lowetide says:

    Material Elvis:
    Dawson Mercer sounds like the ideal right winger for McDavid.Heavy shot, aggressive forechecker, high hockey IQ, defensively responsible.Tough to pass that up if he is available.

    I have him at No. 10. If he slips, that’s a helluva pick.

  195. jp says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Boy oh boy, a 2player team misses the playoffs 3 years in a row with 97 and 29and the #5D, KR4 is the scapegoat, send him out. Bring back the same cast next year and expect better results, what does that mean again! A borderline playoff team is their ceiling, we have a 3 year sample, that’s OK! KH should bring back Gagner and Green, what a help! The balance photo is near the end of a rainbow I fear.Woodguy on Bob’s show this aft mentioned Larson, I concur. Jones and Lagesson are seasoned and ready for prime time.

    What’s the answer then? Move F1 and F2? Or D1-4? Just D4?

  196. jp says:

    Old Timer:
    Given all the consternation about the Oilers goal tending in recent days, would it be a reasonable option to draft Askarov if he is still available? Strength down the middle is critical in todays NHL.

    I kinda think I’d like the Oilers to take Askarov, if available. If nothing else they need a succession plan in net (I suppose they could also make one up at some later point…).

  197. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wonder if we could get Connolly out of Florida. Three more years at $3.5 mill. Maybe they have interest in Kassian. They would more likely be interested in Jones. Maybe you could even include Russell in a deal.

  198. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    I have a hard time drafting goalies so high when you have only one pick.

    The time to draft a goalie in the first round was 2015 when we had #1 & #16, when we could have drafted Samsonov. Who, not surprisingly, is about ready for The Show right about now.

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