If you’re going to replace Adam Larsson on the Oilers roster, it would be wise to have a superior option in place before sending him away.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- New Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Edmonton again? How Oilers would benefit from No. 1 pick and Alexis Lafrenière
- Lowetide: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
PUCK IQ VERSUS ELITES
I ran this the other day, but feel compelled to do it again. This is Puck IQ, numbers are against elite competition. Elite is “a select group that is superior in terms of ability or qualities to the rest of a group or society.” Best of the best.
So what? Adam Larsson played 34 percent of his five on five time (287 minutes, he was injured during the season) and the Oilers had a 47 percent Dangerous Fenwick share. That was the best number among regular Oilers defensemen relative to teammates for the season.
So what? Dangerous Fenwick is a weighted shot metric using shot distance location and type of shot to give each shot a “danger” value. It’s Corsi with a giant brain. It drills down to tell you who is on the ice when there’s blood in the water and the rookies are wide eyed on the bench (exception: Ethan Bear).
So what? Adam Larsson did well in this most important area over the long haul, the 2019-20 season.
So what? Larsson had a poor game in the opener against the Chicago Blackhawks. During his 13:40 five on five ice time in that game, his team was outshot 11-1 and outscored 2-0. As it turned out, he would play just one more game, and then missed the final two games of the series due to injury.
So what? Well, there’s a lot of verbal about dumping Larsson in the offseason, because of his performance against Chicago.
So what? Well, all the smart kids keep telling me sample size is important. 200 minutes, the kids all say. So if we have 287 minutes against elites that tell us Larsson is the best shutdown defender on the team, and 13:40 in one game is going to change the mind of every swinging Dick in Christendom, then we’re going the wrong way and yelling at the wrong things.
So what? If you’re going to send Larsson away, and his injuries are a worry, can we agree that a superior option should be in place?
Like who? Exactly my point. Thank you.
KEN HOLLAND’S VERBAL
I thought Holland hit a lot of good points during his jazz fusion media avail yesterday. I mean he’s not Phillip Glass or Herbie Hancock tickling the ivories, but he spoke with passion and conviction. He expressed disappointment in the loss while also confirming he has faith in his team. He talked about Andreas Athanasiou’s pedestrian run with the Oilers, he talked about young players like Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones and their positive contributions.
Holland did use hyperbole (statistically, the regular season goaltending was not a strength), but the strongest point he made hasn’t been mentioned (that I’ve seen). Holland said in watching the games during the play-ins, he was struck by how close each game was right to the end. He used that as an example of the progress needed by the current group, and said the more you put yourself in position (making the playoffs) the more successful you are. I agree with that 100 percent.
Folks, I know Holland isn’t cutting edge and I expect we’re going to see an uninspiring list at the draft followed by a steady stream of men past 30 added to the NHL roster via trade and free agency. But the idea of offloading Adam Larsson and running a defensive right side of Bear, Benning and Bouchard is not moving out aging veterans for proven youth—making it a bad idea.
Let’s agree that no matter how frustrated you are with Adam Larsson and Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse, superior replacements need to be found before sending these veterans into the abyss.
ELLIOTTE FRIEDMAN
I rarely quote any media person until at least 24 hours after publication, Mr Friedman posted this 14 hours ago. So the deal is you have to click on that link and read his 31 Thoughts, or skip this segment. Seriously.
Okay. Friedman brings up a deal we’ve heard before (Benning, Khaira for Connor Brown) but then says “Holland is determined to avoid previous mistakes and not give up on young players too soon. Music! He also has a big item (No. 6) on Jesse Puljujarvi but you have to click on the link and read it there.
WHY IS THIS GOOD?
Holland being hesitant to move young players reflects a more mature approach to team building. An obvious example of the pratfalls Edmonton has committed over the years was the trade of Jeff Petry because you can’t pay every defenseman $4 million. NO ONE in the Oilers offices had the brainwaves to say “then let’s just pay the good ones $4 million” and Petry was sent away for a draft pick. MacT grabbed two picks for Petry, but the early one was sent away (and spent on Jonas Siegenthaler, currently in the NHL).
The scouts found Caleb Jones with the second pick. Jones could be a top-4D option for many years, could be the reason Edmonton can afford to offload Klefbom or Nurse in the coming years for high value elsewhere. That’s an extremely valuable piece as both veterans edge toward 30. Holland’s hesitancy on Jones, or Lagesson, or Benson or Kuffner, represents a mature manager with a measured approach. I know MacT would have learned that if he spent a few seasons in an assistant general manager’s role. Holland learned it long ago and the hope is that Edmonton will bleed fewer talents before their 28th birthday.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning on TSN1260 well fill the airwaves with logic, reason and entertainment. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will give his opinion on the Oilers quick exit, and what is needed for next season. Joe Osborne from OddsShark touches base at 11 with the latest NHL and NBA odds, plus a brilliant way to bet on baseball without having to worry about the bullpen. Jason Rogers from Washington City Paper, Japers’ Rink and NBC Sports Washington will give us the latest on the Capitals as they get ready for the NY Islanders. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Getting back to hockey, it was quite remarkable watching how competitive the Flyers are in defending the danger area.
The Canadiens has their chances, but man they had to pay the price to get anywhere near Hart.
I think you need that in the playoffs. That is reason enough for me to keep Larsson and Nurse. Even counting on the emergence of Bouchard, he likely won’t be that type of player right away (if ever).
Another thing: I love watching Quinn Hughes. Just brings a smile to your face the things he tries out there.
Yeah godot
You really are a fucking prick
The interesting thing about peeps who are so eager to leap to faux moral outrage is their struggles to perceive nuance and metaphor.
Greta’s appearance/image, like a young John Rotten is one of disaffected youth and alleged rebellion. It’s a look that doesn’t age well. Today’s angry youth is tomorrow’s old man screaming at clouds. If you’re not bringing actual viable solutions to the table, eventually your act wears thin.
Pack the bags. We’re going on a guilt trip.
Are you saying it is fair game to mock the appearance of a teenage girl who has a diagnosed disability? My, our values are a changing.
Kindergarten,many years ago, taught me this type of behaviour is despicable.
When the OIlers make the final four two years in a row, then they can contemplate trading first round picks. Otherwise it is foolhardy to trade the future for the present.
She voluntarily decided to become a public political figure, so she is fair game for ridicule and satire.
Political speech is a priori offensive speech, and the essence of the right to free expression is primarily to protect offensive political speech.
If she can’ t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.
Best global warming joke ever.
NEW for The Athletic: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft. There’s enough quality in this draft for Edmonton to procure two top drawer forwards, but it will take a trade to do it.
https://theathletic.com/1989594/2020/08/13/lowetide-a-rational-approach-for-the-oilers-at-the-2020-draft/
Why do Oiler fans insist on moving out good players. Get good players, keep good players.
Watching the SCP, I’m seeing lots of ex oilers that were considered done here.
Perron
Maroon
Petry
To name a few
Why do we keep moving out these players in their prime, only to see them continue their careers elsewhere.
I get that it doesn’t always work out, and sometimes these guys have to be moved. I think the AA move finally was one where the Oilers got the player instead of the picks.
Whether or not that one works out – do that again. Get another good player and unload cap deadwood.
Resign actual NHL players that help this team. Keep Klefbom and Nurse. We don’t have much else coming down the LD pipeline anytime soon. Jones is a good 6 LD and Lagesson is a good 7D. The rest of the LD prospects are 2-3 years away (Broberg).
Get rid of Russell instead
Ditto on RD – Benning, Larsson, Bear are decent but not great RHS. I don’t think you can get rid of any of them. Maybe Benning. I’d honestly resign larsson after the expansion draft.
Make rookies force them out
That could very well be true.
I think the time to start trading 1st round draft picks Could begin next year, if the oilers perform as good or better than this year and are missing a key Affordable piece that may be available through trade at the deadline
Keep this one unless a truly glorious offer comes along.
Try to get Back a 2nd rd pick this year…
If the oilers haven’t at least been to the SCF in 5 years boys wonder will be gone
Totally. By The time a 2020 Goalie Draft pick can ripen, the window is effectively closed.
The oilers have been shooting the selves in the foot on this position for a long time.
They need another iron in the fire that is more developed. It could be Konovalov. If it ain’t ….well, That is a problem.
Commentary on the physical appearance of Greta Thunberg…a teenager; a girl that I presume would be of the same generation as your grandchildren?
Seems about right. Stay classy.
Don’t forget the skiing – because we all know NHL players love to hit the slopes mid season.
So many spectators/shoppers
It’s hard to concentrate
I wasn’t referring to Nuge at all.
Underrated course.
Narrow fairways. Hard fast greens. Scent of Cinnabons wafting on the breeze. Gallery seating in The Brick.
Bullseye!!!
You are Pathetic
There is, but the course is mini at best
Granny from the Beverly Hillbillies.
He’s definitely past his “best when used by” date for sure, but then so am I. The mental image I’m forming of the Greta equivalent is truly cringeworthy.
Yes, agreed. The Neal trade was astute and creative.
But I didn’t like the Mike Green or AA trades at the time and I like them less now. The Sheahan signing was OK, but nothing special. Maybe Holland knows something about Kuffner that the rest of us don’t.
Overall, Holland’s tendency to stick with the familiar, makes me concerned about some of his biases. Just like Tippett was biased in his faith in Mike Smith.
That said, both are significantly better than PC/TMac/Eakins.
I get the appeal of Greta. She’s punk rock. All the catharsis of pseudo revolution with no need to articulate viable solutions.
I don’t think she’ll age well though. Have you seen Johnny Rotten lately?
We’ll have to see but what if this is one of the best buyer’s markets in years?
It’s shaping up that way.
Between a deep draft and the covid cap the 1st might be worth materially more than usual.
If you can get someone that’s having success and say coming off his ELC and needs a raise the team doesn’t want to afford, wouldn’t that be a better thing than a prospect?
The risk is a lot lower… you have a pretty good idea of what the player is going to be, especially his floor.
And you’ve advanced development of the player closer to Cluster 97.
Can you get Dylan Strome with the 1st? Depends on how Chi manages their cap. Would that be enough for you? It would be for me.
Something like that would probably be easier to swing with a cash poor team more hamstrung by actual revenue than cap. Those teams will be out there.
It’s the same fascination people seem to have with UFOs, unicorns, three headed snakes and white rhinoceros. The circus used to draw these type of people in, but know that they are gone, we are left with the likes of Greta. Go figure.
Is there no golfing in the West Edmonton Mall?
I agree with this in large part. The Oilers are definitely going to need a goalie before Askarov is ready (though they’ll ‘need’ the F or D they draft instead of Askarov before they’re ready too…). Adding an Oettinger would be great for sure.
And agreed Konovalov *should* be that guy. I’m just not sold on him at all. KHL save percentages are completely absurd – his .912 this year was 28th of 32 goalies with >25 games. Even if he had a .925 SV% (as I think someone calculated he had after Xmas) it would still only have been 17th of 32 goalies.
He did it at age 21 (and he was very good at age 20), but he was one of the worst goalies in the KHL this year.
Greta drew a crowd here.
Blues gotta stay out of the box.
They don’t want to lose at home…
#allimportantsplit
😉
Tanev looked pretty bad on the Blues second goal.
Yeah…none of those in Redmonton.
I’m not entirely clear, you’re saying trade the pick?
That does make some sense given 2 elite players entering their prime. And a lot of cup contenders do trade their 1st’s, but not all of them. It could also be a bit early for the Oilers to start doing that, if they’ve got as many roster holes as a lot seem to think.
That aside, I agree those kinds of impact players are key. Pick #14 doesn’t get you one though (but adding one of those excess NHL quality D likely does). And even if you have an impact RHD you do still need 3-4 other capable top 4 D.
FWIW, my criteria for success was designed to reflect top 6 forwards (40+GP at 0.5pts/game) and top 30 goalies. So not necessarily impact players, but not just “made it in some fashion” either.
Another thing is, what is the Oilers window? Everyone cites the McDavid and Draisaitl deals that finish in 5/6 years, but it’s not like the world ends when those expire. Both players will be under 30 at that point. For sure the team needs to have some success by then, but we shouldn’t assume they’ll leave at the first chance. The window is likely 10 years rather than 5. And Holland ran a contender for 20 odd years in Detroit, I feel like he projects his teams out more than 3, 4, 5 years.
Anyway, trading the pick shouldn’t be off the table for sure. Not sure I’d be trying to turn it into a player right now though.
I think Henry is in total control of his fate. Other than he can’t play for the Rags. If he wants a trade they’ll comply… buyout, retirement, whatever. Just can’t play home net at MSG.
Yup, I think that’s in and around the right number – and he can sign that, for term, this fall – get the security, even without the ability to golf in January.
And all the libtard tree huggers you could ever ask for. Paradise!
me too, it is tempting, but the guy you are describing really needs to be Konovalov.
I can only spend the pick if I’m pretty certain Askarov will be better than Konovalov.
K. has the advantage of being 3-4 years down that road already and I don’t think we can wait past next season to bring him over, he’s needed).
I’d rather try and make a trade for Oettinger or someone of that ilk, than draft Askarov, just because of the timetable you laid out so well.
I wonder how a flat cap world will impact UFA contracts.
There was already a bit of downward pressure on UFA deals due to the growing recognition of the value that players provide during their RFA years.
My feeling is that Nuge signs for a 7 million cap hit.
Let’s not forget you can golf and ski on the coast in January…all on the same day.
You can also train your racehorses without them freezing their knackers.
What can you do in Edmonton in January?
Oh, and Momma lives in Burnaby.
That Davidson interview sure sounds like Hank will be retiring.
There’s no way Gorton/Drury trade away one of their young tenders. That doesn’t fit at all with what they’ve been doing.
Is there anyone that could be signed from the KHL?
Koskinen and Francouz both turned out pretty well.
You’re acting like the team has all the leverage. They don’t.
In fact, the power balamce is shifting solidly to Nuge with each passing day.
Can you even name the last star player the Oilers were able to resign that was a pending UFA? This org ALWAYS trades players in this situation. Even Ryan frickin’ Smyth.
I haven’t checked this out, but my sense is teams tend to resign the guys they want early. The guys who actually make it to free agency get there because their teams don’t want them. Generalization of course.
ASKOROV @ #14 has me intrigued. But, man, that’s a tough gamble with a long road.
I went back and looked at successful 1st round goalies. There are some great goalies. But even the greats take time.
1st Year these goalies played at least 28 games (1 game over 1/3 of all starts) with a SV% of at least .910
Price: Draft+3
Brodeur: Draft+4
Luongo: Draft+4
Fleury: Draft+5
Vasilevskiy: Draft+5
Lehtonen: Draft+5
Rask: Draft+5
Varlamov: Draft+6
Dubnyk: Draft+7
Schneider: Draft+8
Bernier: Draft+8
Campbell: Draft+9
Samsonov will probably get there this year in his Draft+6
There is also a handful of 1st round goalies who are flops or never quite make it to starter status.
They certainly gave up too soon on Dubnyk and they got some good years out of him. They really were goalie killers for a while.
These goalies were all scouted as eilte talents and most of them take until their Draft+5 season to make it.
Askarov Draft+1 20-21. His Draft +5 season will be 2024-25. Uggh. That’s a long wait.
But I’d be so tempted to take him. I’d love Connor Zary at #14, but an elite goalie like a Price, Brodeur, Luongo, Fleury, Lehtonen, and Rask could really extend Edmonton’s winning years. Most successful goalies seem to have great years until at least 29 and many even longer. That would take them to 2031-32.
It also might be enough to convince McDavid and Draisaitl to re-sign in Edmonton. If Askarov arrives in 23-24 or 24-25, that would give McDavid 2 or 3 years (Draisaitl 1 or 2 yrs) with a young elite goalie to decide if there odds of a Cup run are looking good in 25-26 and 26-27.
That’s playing the long game. I think I would be happy with either Askarov or Zary.
Food for thought.
I wouldn’t think Henrik would want to go and play out his career on a team like the Devils – probably would like to retire a career-Ranger – maybe he’d accept a trade to a true contender.
A buyout is also not great end to his Ranger career as one of their all-time greats but it is a business.
Retiring is an option – he’s only owed $4.5M left. Even someone with almost $100M in career earnings won’t want to walk away from that kind of money. Perhaps the org can give him a high paying consulting job. Of course, that would be cap circumvention. Of course, James Dolan could have the league looking the other way on that….
No worries obviously. I just checked again and for 16-17, 17-18 and 18-19 his average is 25/82.
For 17-18, 18-19 and 19-20 (last 3 years) it is 23/82. But this year (16/82) did bring the average down (and as I said above 16-17 was also 23/82 so the numbers are kinda weird).
Anyway, very solid. He’s tied with Brock Boeser, Jeff Carter and Vincent Trocheck for 106th in goals over the past 4 seasons. He’s been a high end 2nd line goal scorer with only 8 of the goals coming on the PP.
Sorry 13 M.
Where did that EDIT button go?!?!?!?
Still ouch.
1) Edmonton is not that but they are on the right path and really not that far away. Nuge has been through the raw years and very well might want to see this through now that things are better and should be even better in the near and medium term
2) Climate sucks during the season but, geographically, Nuge is a western boy who I believe lives in Red Deer part time with obvious ties to the province next over – sure, Van, Seattle, Calgary are in that conversation but Edmonton’s geography is likely not a huge negative.
3) Oilers are already paying Nuge $6M – they will be able to find the extra million or so to be competitive in the market.
Lets not forget, Covid-era – Nuge can sign with the Oilers at any time providing 100% security – something that may be much more important now than 6 months ago.
If Hank forces a buyout, the NYR will have 14 Million units tied up in buyouts next year…ouch.