The AHL is a distant bell on hockey’s business plan currently, there are start dates and expectations but the trains won’t move until there are planes in the air. While we have time, let’s have a look at how things might have turned out for the Bakersfield men in 2020-21. Maybe it’ll come true and we can look back someday to see how close our guesses were to top dead center.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: How close are the Oilers to deploying two formidable scoring lines?
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Examining Matt Benning’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Legendary Oilers PA announcer Mark Lewis discusses his temporary comeback
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s bet on Andreas Athanasiou and how Oilers will proceed
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from the ghosts of Oilers’ draft weekends past
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
UFA
Looking only at the AHL UFA’s (meaning Patrick Russell isn’t here), we are dealing with a pool that includes forwards Markus Granlund, Tomas Jurco, Brad Malone and Josh Currie; defensemen Brandon Manning and Keegan Lowe; plus goalie Shane Starrett.
I’m not sure any of them return. Currie is coming off a two-year deal that included a $25,000 signing bonus and a minor-league salary that averaged $130,000 a year. Why did he make so much on a minor league deal? He can deliver offense and he can play center, two important roles on an AHL team. I think Edmonton passes because the center depth chart is strong without him. Malone is on an AHL deal that will help the depth chart in the middle as well. Granlund is already gone, Manning had a tough season on and off the ice and Lowe was unable to repeat his previous performance. I don’t know what happened to Starrett but it’s unlikely the Oilers wait to see if he’s healthy. Jurco is the player I would have time for in this group.
RFA
This group includes Ryan Kuffner, Nolan Vesey, Cam Hebig up front, and Logan Day plus William Lagesson on the blue line. Angus Redmond is the lone RFA goalie.
Lagesson is a good bet to be signed, I think we could see him in Edmonton in 2020-21 but he’ll absolutely be a big piece in Bakersfield if the team can slide him through waivers. Logan Day is a righty blue and can help on the power play. I think Kuffner gets a contract because there’s been little time to evaluate him as a pro. He could be a useful piece not enough track to make the call. That’s an easy contract for the organization to sign. Vesey, Hebig and Redmond are likely down the line.
THE INCUMBENTS
This is a large group, the Farm Workers post each year spends much of its time on these men. Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin and Joe Gambardella are the forwards; Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov are the defensemen and Stuart Skinner plus Dylan Wells are the goalies.
Bouchard, Benson, Marody and Gambardella are NHL-ready and looking for their chance, McLeod could be there by the end of the 2020-21 season. Maksimov, Safin and Samorukov are in the ‘meander’ section of development, we’ll need to see progress this coming season. Skinner is a player the organization likes, patience must be wearing thing but Holland is notorious for waiting. Wells is in the spot where people get traded to make the 50-man balance.
THE NEWCOMERS
Raphael Lavoie and possibly Philip Broberg would be the headliners, with Olivier Rodrigue, Theodore Lennstrom and Markus Niemelainen rounding out the group. I imagine Lennstrom would have a major impact on the AHL, as well Broberg and Lavoie if they landed in California.
ADDITIONS
I think the Oilers might want to add a veteran goalie for the 2020-21 season. Rodrigue would start in the ECHL, Wells and Skinner with the Condors and the veteran No. 3 NHL goalie could start a large number of Bakersfield games—perhaps a platoon with Skinner. This player would be the first recall. I picked Troy Grosenick but thought about Laurent Brossoit and there are several other interesting candidates. I also placed a RHD on the team (Chris Wideman) because I think Bouchard will be in the NHL. The rest of the roster is prospects or AHL contracts as noted below.
PROJECTED CONDORS LINEUP 2020-21
- Goalies (3): Troy Grosenick, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells
- Left Defense (7): William Lagesson, Dmitri Samorukov, Philip Broberg, Theodor Lennstrom, Markus Niemelainen, Jake Kulevich (AHL), Yanni Kaldis (AHL)
- Right Defense (4): Evan Bouchard, Logan Day, Chris Wideman, Janis Jaks (AHL)
- Center (5): Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod, Brad Malone (AHL), Luke Esposito (AHL), James Hamblin (AHL)
- Left Wing (5): Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner, Blake Christensen (AHL), Devin Brosseau (AHL)
- Right Wing (5): Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin, Jakub Stukel (AHL), Liam Folkes (AHL)
The recalls are obvious: Grosenick, Lagesson, Bouchard, Wideman, perhaps Broberg, Marody, perhaps McLeod, Benson, Gambardella.
Your argument continues to make no sense to me.
Yes, they could trade Russell. Is it possible? Not without a significant sweetener!
Is it possible to trade Chiasson? Maybe. But I bet they would have to retain some salary.
They could let AA walk, but replacing him with Benson seems like a bigger stretch than replacing Benning with Bouchard.
It still comes down to this. 3rd pairing dmen aren’t that hard to replace, end stop. The Oilers have a number of internal options like Bouchard, Jones and Russell.
Benning is a good trade candidate because, 1) he has a positive trade value, and 2) it won’t really hurt the current Oilers to lose him.
Your obsession with keeping this player is strange. But you sure are fanatical about it!
A rightie would be nice, for sure.
Nope, not every d-pairing can be leftie/rigthtie all year long – sure.
At the same time, the organization has the easy ability to not trade away the limited depth they have at the position – they have four NHL options, end stop. One of the options, while likely NHL ready, hasn’t proven it and is an important long-term prospect – if he isn’t ready or if he is ready but not for top 4 and is forced in to the lineup and potentially up the lineup due to injuries, that’s not good for long term development.
The player that would be traded is not a cap issue – sure, maybe he is a couple hundred grand over paid but he’s been highly effective at the position over the years and is entering his prime years for his type of player.
I don’t see that being a top 4-5 place to look for cap savings (Russell, replace AA with Benson, replace Chiasson with Puljujarvi, etc.).
I divided total points by seasons.
He’s a left shot so he sucks.
Kidding but I wish a rightie could be bad.
so polar,
Just about any relative stat operates on comparing what the team does without said player on the ice- not with the mean. This is to isolate what that player does from the others rather than comparing his performance to a sample that also includes his performance. To do so, you removing their play from the sample of the team. As an example, let’s say you have a 1000 minute pie of data to work with and the minute allocation for Cs goes:
McDavid 350
Draisaitl 350
Sheahan 175
Haas 125
When looking at Haas’ performance, you’d be comparing his results to the results in the remaining 875 mins and when looking at McDavid’s performance, you’d be comparing his results to the results of the remaining 650 mins. This is why you get different numbers out of each. Does that clear things up?
You must be including some partial seasons from very long ago… Bonino’s worst season of the last 7 is 25 points and he’s scored 35+ points in 5 of the 7. His career per 82 games (apples to apples with what I posted for Larsson) is 82-16-21-37.
Bonino would be a far superior option aside from already making $4.1M and costing assets to acquire. He’d be damn near the ideal solution those things and age aside.
Kniggits currently icing one RSD
You’ve got to expand your mind a little here. Its not a perfect world out there. Not every d pairing is going to be lefty righty.
In fact, very few of the remaining 8 playoff teams have 3 lefty righty pairings. It’s not a prerequisite to winning the cup.
Danault strikes me as a brilliant fit alongside McDavid. Strong defensive presence, great at faceoffs, a little bit of feisty in him, and he can make plays. Sign me up!
leadfarmer,
Fortunately, analysis goes beyond point scoring.
The vaunted Bonino is a career 25 pt / season. And is 32.
That’s totally fair. The dream is bigger but the cap limitations are also very real.
Larsson is about the least sexy option out there but he has a history of playing Sheahan’s minutes (3rd line comp with ~30% Ozone starts) and not getting killed.
Having your “3C” not be -20 at 5v5 would be a major step in the right direction, if not a sexy one.
Oh forgive me for wanting someone above scrub level. Sheesh.
We need someone that can anchor a 3rd line. Not someone that if you squint incredibly hard could maybe be a 3rd liner. Sabres 10th best point scorer. Yeay !!
Surely you guys can dream a little bigger
Turns out his career scoring rate is 82-8-12-20.
In any case I’m more interested in his ability to not be eviscerated by secondary toughs for 12 minutes a night. A more difficult job than you might realize, apparently.
Atta boy Schmidt.
Sure, can’t argue with the above but what is best for the player and his development is also what is best for the team – in the future.
What’s best for the team now and in the future is not necessarily the same.
Often young prospects get sent to the AHL or back to junior even though they could probably help the team because its best for their development. This isn’t quite the same (LD vs. RD) but similar.
I also come back to the fact that Jones was simply less effective on the right side, materially. He was very good on the right side in the AHL but that’s not always translatable to the next level.
Even though Tip talked about his footwork leading to him being able to play the right side, it still takes longer to make plays and, in the NHL, that split second can be a difference maker.
Obviously Jones or Rusty on the right side will be used if Benning or Larsson are moved with no replacement and an injury hits.
I just hope they aren’t forced in to that because they literally have no fourth right shot option available in North America.
Can’t start the year without addressing that white elephant.
Bonino would be amazing. One year left on his contact I believe. Maybe he’s a deadline acquisition.
I’m not sure how you can say that with respect to Jones – he wasn’t very good when he played the right side – worse that Benning who is consistently very effective and good at 3RD.
Thats not even Ahl level trolling
We can all see it’s post draft season 4 when Theodore played 34 games
Bouchard starts his post draft season 3
Also that blue line is not as stacked as you say it is as Theodore is better than all of them and Ducks has him spend parts of 3 seasons in AHL and he is clearly better than all those guys
Except for the fact that he started the season after expansion draft in Ahl
True story
That was riding a high PDO so 20 points might be an unreasonable expectation. I think Woodguy is easing us into his choices, building to a crescendo. There might be quite a few options, depending on their budget. Almost anyone will be an improvement on what Sheahan was doing last year. But I hope they set the bar a bit higher this year.
I wasn’t aware JT Miller takes right faceoffs. That type of winger is exactly what Connor needs. Plays two ways, right shot fast big and takes faceoffs.
JP you reading this? The world can be your oyster.
He had to wait his turn.
He was sent back to junior post draft because there was no room.
In his rookie NHL season the Ducks blueline was stacked.
Fowler
Bieksa
Lindholm
Manson
Vatanen
Depres
Stoner.
The next season, at 21 he played 34 games in the NHL and had a total of 53 games to his credit.
Evan Bouchard will be 21 when (if) the NHL resumes in the new year with only the obligatory 7 NHL games to his credit
Thanks
Sounds decent. Edges are a big thing, efficient change of direction. A problem a lot of Oilers have is edges. Chiasson, Khaira, Lucic have top end speed but skate like they don’t have knees. Maybe that’s a bit strong for JJ but he’s still pretty lumbering.
Not really. Good balance, strong on his blades, but no high speed top end.
He would’ve had 20 in a full season this year.
Woodguy v2.0,
Johan Larsson!! Yuck!!
May I suggest someone that has potential for 20 points
Brilliant thanks
A biggie for me is wether he’s a plus skater or not?
Dave McNab drafts them. Bob Murray gives them away.
Friedman postulates a Canadian division for one year in his latest 31 Thoughts.
Had that first! -).
We’re watching Shea Theodore becoming elite before our eyes at age 25
Played almost 100 games in Ahl
Elite players are elite early
Except for all the ones that aren’t
WhileI I understand what you are saying while what is best for the player is not always what is best for the team. The TEAM comes first! When I question your ideas it is just that, there is no disrespect intended. Most of the community I believe feels the same way. If Jones can cover right side if required adds value to his resume and is good for him and the team.
When Krueger and Eichel get Hall on a Zoom call, they won’t let him off until he signs! -).
I still think Calgary, but don’t underestimate Ralph.
They were saving up all those goals for two years. The offensive potential was always there. Mean reversion with a vengeance.
Benn and Seguin were cold. The young forwards were taking their time showing up. Perry and Pavelski were adjusting as first year players on a new team.
Matty Douchebag woke Benn up. Kassian does stupid things when Tkachuk annoys hi, and hurts his team. Benn is the anti-Kassian when he gets pissed off.
Eichel is unhappy and Hall wants to go to a contender
That is quite possibly the last place he would want to go
I still say they are just as good as Benning on the right side.
Which is why I have been saying that Benning is tradeable, and easily replaced on the 3rd pairing.
They have 2.55 and 2.58 goals for per game last 2 seasons. Pretty darn steady
Seeing 3.25 in postseason is not expected
I’m not so sure they are better than Benning at RD. Numbers show Benning good up the lineup (and this is a numbers blog).
Russell has had success at RD and even 2RD – in particular the 2016/17 paired with Sekera. He hasn’t come close to that level since and has been good in short stints but not for stretches.
We haven’t seen Jones good on the right side at the NHL level.
The question is broader than “are they better than Benning at RD”, in particular in the case of Jones as Jones remains a young d-man still trying to establish himself at the NHL level – he should be put in a position where he has the best chance to succeed and, importantly, the organization needs to know what they have from him in the next year and if there is a good, decent, great chance of him being a legit top 4LD – this impacts expansion draft strategy as well as potential trades of Nurse or Klef or Sammy or Broberg.
Yes, but he doesn’t have an axe to grind with the Oilers…
Pretty sure that flies in the face of the whole “it’s all about winning” thing that Hall talked about last week. Ralph has a pretty slick sales pitch but it’s not happening.
It’s pretty clear that HH put his patented hex on the Avs.
Sorry. Should have included the smiley face.?
You really need to develop a thicker skin if you want to debate with every poster on here.
Do I think Russell and Jones are weaker on their offside? Probably.
But you’re asking the wrong question. Are they as good, or better, than Benning at RD? That’s the question that needs to be asked.
I say they are.
i have no idea why Edmonton would want that. Kass and Neal are bad contracts, but they have 4&3 years remaining at a combined hit of 8.9M. Trading two bad deals for one much, much worse deal – Skinner is 7 years of $9 million – seems like a huge loss.
Nice passive aggressive shot……
Do you believe that either (or both) are as effective on the right side?
Personally, from my viewings, they are both markedly less effective on the right side – Jones is a small sample size in that regard but we’ve seen Rusty much much better on his natural side.
The coaching staff values leftie/rightie – they’ve shown in with their decisions and their words.
Any D can play their off side – doesn’t mean they are good at it (relative to their natural side).
Personally, I would like to have Jones put in a position to succeed as he develops in his career – playing the position he is best at – left defence.
On that note, the KHL season starts this week and I’m super-pumped.
Maksimov and Samorukov both on CKSA Moscow (Slepy too).
I hope Konovalov is healthy to start the season – I know he was hurt during exhibition.
Yes, getting all these players and prospects playing time in Europe was indeed a stroke of genius given no AHL/NHL until December (at the earliest and likely later, if the AHL even plays).
I don’t think Berglund wasn’t really part of that though – when he signed at the end of April it was agreed upon that he would be loaned by to Linkoping for next season. I guess that was after Covid-struck and the pause but I don’t think that decision was made due to potential AHL/NHL playing issues.
Could be wrong.
Wow! That would be an interesting move.
Oilers would definitely be all in!
Russell and Jones can’t play RD. They shoot left.
Haven’t you heard? No competent NHL coach plays a dman on his off side.
I was on the Danault train at the deadline – a player I was willing to pay more for given he had some term. I was concerned about what his re-sign contract would look like (and still am) but he would be a perfect fit for the Oilers.
I haven’t read the 31 thoughts yet (thank you for posting) but I’ve heard/read that his issue with the Habs is that he wants a more offensive role and not just be a third liner. That doesn’t bode well for his anticipated role if acquired by the Oilers.