Riesen to Believe, Volume 1 2020-21

by Lowetide

Training camp is underway, we have the official rosters and can begin beating each other about the face and hands verbally over the lines and pairings. It feels like exactly one forever since training camp 2019, a time when Ethan Bear and Joel Persson were applying for work at the same position.

It’ll happen again this year, you know. Someone like Ryan McLeod or Joakim Nygard or Evan Bouchard or Jesse Puljujarvi will jump up and be the story of camp. Happens every year.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

CERTAIN OILERS (21)

I expect this group is a lock and will be joined by two centers on opening night. A note: These are not lines and pairings of my making nor are they suggestions from me. However, a friend of mine did send them to me and so I thought we’d start the process with this setup.

UNCERTAIN OILERS (12)

It’s going to be a fierce race to the finish for the No. 4 and No. 5 center spot, I’ll go ahead and suggest a lefty and a righty will make it (Haas versus Marody, all the rest lefties). At this point, I think the lefty race is Khaira, Shore, McLeod, Quine in that order but things could change in a quick hurry. Poor Nygard looks like he’s going to get squeezed, Benson also in photo. All three defensemen listed here will play this season in my opinion.

DISTANT BELLS (7)

I expect this group will have a tough time forcing their way into the conversation for a taxi squad spot, let along the 23-man list.

SAME TIME LAST YEAR, CERTAIN OILERS (18)

All words below from last year’s training camp. I wanted to give you a feeling for what we were talking about and where the eventual roster players were in the pecking order. Sam Gagner was listed as a certain Oilers but did get sent out.

Unless there’s an injury or trade we don’t know about, I believe these men are locks to be on the opening night roster. McDavid, Smith and Russell won’t play this week (likely) and that means opportunity for others. Players I’ll be focusing on from this group: Benning, Larsson, Sheahan, Archibald.

SAME TIME LAST YEAR, UNCERTAIN OILERS (15)

I think Evan Bouchard has probably served notice but there’s miles to go and both Joel Persson and Ethan Bear have been in the news. One encouraging item: Both Gaetan Haas and Colby Cave got solid reviews from the coach. Center is an area of weakness. Joakim Nygard will be one to watch and it would be nice to have a goalie in this section.

DISTANT BELLS (15)

Two juniors, a gifted phenom and one brave soldier off the list as we head toward the first game of the preseason. Coach Tippett has spoken at length about seeing 10 or so guys a lot during these early games, not certain if any of those 10 is on this list. There’s always a surprise of early camp and this year it was Cam Hebig. Love to see a prospect step forward as he has over the last week.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show gets rolling at 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll have breaking news about the NHL because everything will be lightning speed now through opening night. Expect waivers news, lines and pairings and more. Meanwhile, at 10:20, we’ll be joined by Cleveland journalist Matt Florjanic to talk about the Browns making the postseason for the first time since 2002. Jason Gregor from the JG show on TSN1260 will pop in to talk Oilers training camps and some of the battles we’ll see in the next 10 days. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Harpers Hair

North American Central Scouting Independent Bureau
@MarkSeidel
·
1m

Byfield, Turcotte, Kaliyev, Simontaival, Faber, Bjornfot & Grans. Take a bow Mark Yannetti & staff of the @LAKings
That is a pretty good haul for 2 drafts & how you build a potential Stanley Cup champion. A few years ago we raved about the rebuild of the @Avalanche
prospect pool.

Here comes the Kings.

godot10

But #flattop.

Oilerguy

Sorry but I see 3 players on that list that might be better then Benson

N64

Sad Finnish

hags9k

Kaliyev! I blame LT.

flyfish1168

Would love to see Team Canada play Finland for the gold. Team USA to arrogant for my liking

N64

3-3 tie

Harpers Hair

Les Lazaruk
@Bladesvoice
·
12h

…A worrisome rumour that I’ve heard…and I hope it’s bogus…but Hockey Canada is said to be ready to scrap the rest of the current season for all provincial association’s across the country once the World Juniors is complete!

leadfarmer

Fabrinacci with the goal
and it’s very tough to stop a Fabrinacci sequence once it gets started

Gerta Rauss

LoL

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

This is just spiraling out of control now.

DevilsLettuce

Barrie looks up, sees Kassian and McDavid both eager to be sent flying, clearly Barrie chooses Kassian.

Who will then fly in on Holtby and score, because Holtby is a sive.

Gerta Rauss

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/nhl-will-not-require-blanket-quarantine-period-for-ahl-recalls/ar-BB1ct7oQ?li=AAggXBR&ocid=mailsignout

Update per Chris Johnson re: AHL recalls and quarantine protocols (his twitter link is embedded in the link above)

OriginalPouzar

Thank you for this. As I posted a couple days ago, the Oilers, Canucks and Flames are at a major disadvantage in this regard as they do not have practical access to the Condors and many teams in the league will have practical access to their minor league affiliates.

The Oilers will need to ensure the taxi squad is filled with their top injury fill-in players as, practically, they will have no access to their AHL team.

For a team like the Leafs, and all other teams that share their city with their AHL affiliate, their entire AHL team is like a taxi squad for parts of the year.

The Oilers will need to keep Benson and Bouchard on the taxi squad as they need access to them. Many other teams could stash their top prospect fill-ins playing games in the AHL until they need them (and, call them up to the taxi squad before a road trip, for example).

leadfarmer

These coaches picks for top players aren’t worth much.
Sure Askarov was a top 3 player. Sure he was.
at least three Canada ones are good

Harpers Hair

The NHL defensemen who have skills that really matter in the modern NHL:

Spoiler alert…no Oilers.

https://theathletic.com/1892364/2020/07/09/by-the-numbers-identifying-the-nhls-best-puck-moving-defensemen/

Side

Another article that you parrot when the topic may look unfavorably for the Oilers?

How many articles do you CTRL+F through in a day before you find one to post?

Harpers Hair

May?

fishman

Please piss off. Thanks

Side

I’m not sure if you’re genuinely asking me a question or are having another “Broberg was responsible for 2 goals against. What do you mean he wasn’t even on the ice?” moment.

leadfarmer

are you blind?
Tyson Barrie is in the same grouping as Hedman Pietrangelo Theodore Reilly Chabot
i swear you don’t read the crap you post

Harpers Hair

Tyson Barrie did not play for the Oilers last season so there is no data of him with the Oilers.

I expect he will do very well this upcoming season.

Abbeef

He’s an Oiler…

Last edited 8 months ago by Abbeef
Side

FYI Barrie will be wearing number 22 on his jersey.

nelson88

Although if you read the authors commentary in answer to questions he is quite complimentary of both Klefbom and Bear. Doesn’t fit your narrative I realize.

As mentioned previously would prefer you pull the same crap as in your DSF past so as to be banned. No worries though as I expect you will be posting less frequently here over the 2021 season.

Harpers Hair

I did read that and agree completely.

But they aren’t among the best….and, of course, Klefbom won’t be around.

nelson88

Depending upon the metrics one uses the Oilers may not have a true #1 D and almost certainly do not have an elite #1D. If Kenny the grinder plays his cards right (and I like his chances given history) he has the makings of a top quartile Dcorps unit when measured 1-7. Fully expect that to happen as early as fall 2021-2022 season

leadfarmer

And San Jose had two of the leaders and see what that got em.
doesn’t matter how well you move the puck if you’re just digging the puck out of your own net

Harpers Hair

So, you’re suggesting not possessing the puck is a winning strategy.

Got it.

Abbeef

So Klefbom doesn’t count as an Oiler because he played last year but not this year. Barrie doesn’t count as an Oiler because he plays for the Oilers this year but not last.

Lol, got it!

Harpers Hair

Klefbom is fantastic…how much will he help the Oilers this season?

Good grief.

leadfarmer

He’s commenting on your moving goalposts

Harpers Hair

I’m commenting on data sets.

Klefbom has a history with the Oilers…but he’s not playing.

Barrie has never played for the Oilers so we have no idea what his stats will look like.’

Passing the puck to Kassian is very different than passing the puck to Matthews or MacKinnon.

We’ll see what happens.

leadfarmer

Passing the puck to Kassian is different than passing to Matthews or MacKinnon ??
You serious??
if only we had a player that’s better than Kassian.
like a Hart trophy winner or two

OriginalPouzar

If only the Oilers had a player or two as skilled as Matthews or MacKinnon for Barrie to pass the puck too then we’d know if Barrie’s skill-set will translate as an Oiler…..

ArmchairGM

How different?

Matthews: 1.56 5v5 G/60, 2019-20
Kassian: 1.03 G/60
MacKinnon: 1.00 G/60

Redbird62

Two fairly detailed assessments of how Nurse and other Oilers defenseman compare other NHL D in skills that matter:

https://oilersnation.com/2020/08/27/zone-entries-that-lead-to-shots-and-scoring-chances/

https://oilersnation.com/2020/08/26/the-nhls-top-puck-movers-and-puck-transporters/

Darnell Nurse ranked among the league leaders in O-zone entries leading to goals and compared very well in D-zone exits overall, the latter of which was the result of being very good carrying the puck out and more average passing it out.

Admittedly Gregor covers the Oilers but Harman Dayal covers the Canucks. Jason relied on Sportlogiq data, which is probably more reliable than the publicly available data available to Dayal.

Harpers Hair

Harman Dayal is one of the most accomplished statzis in the game…his Athletic colleagues call him the Boy Genius.

Yes, Nruse is among the leaders in skating the puck out of his own end but falls far short in the passing department.

From the Gregor article:

Bear is sixth in pass attempts and 41st in success rate.
Nurse was 52nd in pass attempts and 95th in success rate.
Klefbom was 74th in pass attempts and 25th in success rate.

Last edited 8 months ago by Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

Nurse is among the league leaders in zone entries leading to goals.

Goal creation >>>> “passing ability”.

Harpers Hair

Nonsense.

If you can’t pass the puck out of your own end, it’s major disadvantage.

The great defensemen can do both.

OriginalPouzar

You can’t honestly belive that transition passing is more important than goal creation – come on, don’t embarrass yourself further.

Nurse is an average transition passer but he is elite at zone exits, zone entries and creating scoring chances and goals.

Noone has said he’s a “great defenseman”.

Harpers Hair

Nurse is mediocre at both…math doesn’t lie.

OriginalPouzar

math doesn’t lie but it seems you do given he is an elite point producer at evens in the NHL

Harpers Hair

Good grief.
He wasn’t even the highest scoring D on the Oilers.
He’s average.

Redbird62

Dayal could be the second coming of Gauss, (though he was given this nickname by the late Botchfield – a respected columnist but hardly an expert in assessing statistical genius) but my point point was not in Dayal’s analysis of his data but about the data set he used. Even Dayal concedes that that NHL teams rely on companies like Sportslogiq which is 100% complete, while his data set is a sampling. Dayal is using 3 years of sampled games, while Gregor was looking at 100% of 2019/2020 data by the people who are paid by NHL teams to collect and analyze data. (I would expect Sportslogiq counting of a successful zone entry to be at least a little bit more reliable than Corey Sznajder’s. Not saying its hard, but it is a judgement call.

And right above where you pulled the info from Gregor’s column where he indicated that Nurse was 95th in outlet pass success rates, he also indicated that 4 of the 5 that were less successful than Nurse were Chabot, Burns, OEL and Petry. So maybe pass success rate by itself is not a defining quality. And despite Nurse’s less than stellar outlet pass success rate, he has a very low giveaway’s per 60 of 1.98 for a guy who carries the puck a ton and attempts passes in an amount consistent with a top 2 dman.

Harpers Hair

Yep.

He’s pretty much middle of the pack.

OriginalPouzar

Not as far as creating scoring chances and goals.

Harpers Hair

33rd in the league in points among defensemen points last season..

Meaning, on average, every NHL team had a more productive defenseman.

jp

33rd in the league in points among defensemen points last season..

But tied for 7th in 5v5 points. Ahead of a PP specialist some like to call an elite #1D. Go figure.

Last edited 8 months ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

You brought up some sort of passing stat as some sort of weird way to counter a scoring chance and goal creation stat. Do you value passing out of the defensive zone greater than creating scoring chances and goals.

Tied for 7th in the NHL in 5 on 5 points plus PK.

Of note, Quinn Hughes 16th in the NHL in 5 on 5 points with no PK.

Of further note, in aggregate over the last three years, Nurse is tied for 7th in the NHL among D in 5 on 5 points – tied with Hedman (one point behind Barrie).

Of ever further note, in 2018/19, when Nurse got actually PP1 time for about half the year, he finished tied with Ellis and Pieterangelo in overall points, ahead of Dougie Hamilton, Shea Theodore, Duncan Keith, etc.

Redbird62

Tied for 7th in 5 on 5 points.

fishman

Wow Russian power play very good. Suggest we not take penalties!

leadfarmer

The Toys R Us not looking so good

fishman

That cracks me up every time!

McSorley33

Yes. Just 1 game.

just 1 tournament.

I get it . Small sample.

But Askarov……wow

wolf8888

and it’s not just the 4 goals. He really looks lost!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Prospects in straight lines and goalies are voodoo but wow indeed.

Four 1st period goals on a supposedly generational goalie who’s having a poor World Jr tournament for the second year in a row.

Last edited 8 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
leadfarmer

Podkolzin was supposed to be a top 10 prospect and many projected him to be mvp of tourney
oops.

pts2pndr

The beauty of this is that HH has gone silent! It will be interesting to see how he spins this!😂😂

godot10

Askarov was subpar last year at the World Juniors also. So two tournaments.

defmn

Obviously the right place to pick a goalie is in the 7th round just before they turn the lights out. 😉

Round 7 OV 212 Florida Devon Levi G Carleton Place Canadians [CCHL]

Tarkus

If the US and A wins tonight, the two starting goalies in the final would be property of the same team (Florida).

defmn

And six more years of Bobrovsky on the books. 😉

Harpers Hair

Or wait for someone else to draft them, wait a few years while they develop and either sign or trade for them.

There are always more goalies available than there are spots available.

I’m too lazy to look after a strenuous day of making beef jerky in the new air fryer, but how many starting goaltenders are still with the team that drafted them?

defmn

Yeah, it was just meant as a joke.

Harpers Hair

Thought you might be interested in this after our conversation yesterday regarding the Canucks D.

From practise today.

Alex Edler-Nate Schmidt
Olli Juolevi-Tyler Myers
Quinn Hughes-Jalen Chatfield
Jack Rathbone-Jordie Benn

This does not include Hamonic who is still in quarantine.

Hamonic will replace Chatfield…so…

Edler-Schmidt
Hughes-Hamonic
Juolevi-Myers
Rathbone-Benn

Pretty much what I thought.

jp

Harpers Hair

From practise today.

Alex Edler-Nate Schmidt

Olli Juolevi-Tyler Myers

Quinn Hughes-Jalen Chatfield

Jack Rathbone-Jordie Benn

You sure Green isn’t planning to shelter Hughes even more than last season?

Harpers Hair

Pretty sure he’ll get 23-25 minutes a night and score close to a PPG.

Bouchard will be eating popcorn.

jp

You think? He didn’t even make it to 23 minutes a night in the playoffs with Myers injured half the time.

Or do you think Green will start to use him on the PK?

I actually think he might regress a bit this year in points/game from his regular season numbers, but who knows.

Harpers Hair

22:48
Those 12 seconds are HUGE…or not.

jp

Well, you said 23-25, and the Canucks added at least one 1st pairing defenseman to the roster (two if you believe Thomas Drance and Harman Dayal regarding Hamonic).

I’m not sure why you’re projecting a 1-4 minute increase over last regular season (21:53).

Harpers Hair

12 seconds is a fucking rounding error.

The only bobo I’ve seen who wants Hughes give up 5V5 and PP minutes to play PK is you.

That is just nonsense.

jp

He needs to play 1:07 more per game than last regular season to get to 23 minutes. You’re saying 23-25.

I’m just trying to figure how he gets up over 23min when the Canucks just added a left shot D who everyone agrees is 1st pair, and a RD who you yourself are claiming will play top 4.

jp

Also, where’s Rafferty?

Did he opt out or something?

Solly

I’m so glad Askarov was gone by the time we drafted because I think Kenny would have taken him if he was still available. (Thanks Nashville!) He has an unwarranted arrogance about him that makes me want to punch him in the face everytime I see him. I believe he will be the biggest bust of the 1st round. I definitely do not see a franchise tender in him…not even close.
I didn’t notice Amirov once in that entire game…typical disappearing act by European players when the going gets tough.
Podkolzin, in his THIRD World Juniors, failed to make an impact on this game (and the entire tourny). He then gets a pity Player of the Game award to top off his sub-par tournament. Favourite for MVP of the tournament? Ha! He’s a career 4th liner..if he’s very lucky..3rd line tops. He is solid on his skates and has decent vision. No creativity and no elite puck skills by my eye.

Holloway may not score a bunch of points but you always notice him when he’s on the ice. He consistently makes an impact on the game due to his passion and drive. The coach clearly trusts him to play in every situation too. I agree he doesn’t have the puck skills needed…yet. Those are skills that can be taught and learned over time though. As the game slows down for him, he will be able to make better decisions with/without the puck. I see him fighting for a roster spot in TC in the 22/23 season. Great pick by KH!

OriginalPouzar

Jim Benning says he wants to sign Pozdolkin as soon as he can this spring and bring him over to the NHL.

I’m all for that – nothing like running in place year over year to show NHL readiness.

OriginalPouzar

Huge news – great that Kahun is only a few days!

Jason Gregor

@JasonGregor
·
9m

Hearing Shore and Kahun will be on ice in coming days, maybe as early as tomorrow. Neal questionable for season opener, but doesn’t sound like it is long-term for those wondering. With such a short camp getting a few skates in camp before season begins would be big. #Oilers

jp

That is great to hear.

pts2pndr

Thanks OP! Great News!

defmn

Thanks for this OP. I’ve been waiting all day for somebody in the media to address this.

OriginalPouzar

I was waiting all day for Tip’s media avail.

I’m still miffed that they aren’t streaming them live like they normally do and its taking hours to get them up on their social media.

In any event, Tip wouldn’t say anything about any player – intimating that they are only allowed to say “unfit to play”.

I don’t think Coach is right on that. During camp, the NHL won’t be releasing Covid positive names, just numbers (although they will during the regular season) but that doesn’t stop the team from providing more information – in particular on injury and quarantine matters – other teams are doing it.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Probably a team policy then.

defmn

Nice words about Jones & Jesse from Tip.

teamblue

I’m sure an experienced coach like Tippett would be mistaken on what he can/can’t divulge and you’d know better.

OriginalPouzar

What he can and what he does divulge are not the same.

Kahun and Neal are injured – other teams are providing injury info.

Shore is a quarantine thing – other teams are providing such info.

Haas is a quarantine thing – Holland already told us and other teams are providing such info.

N64

the dreaded 3-0 lead.

fishman

Can with early lead but the Russians pushing back. Great game!

fishman

3-0 Canada. PP goal!

geowal

Turning into a romp now early

Eh Team

So that’s why you don’t take a goalie in the first round. Askarov has been brutal.

leadfarmer

Has had a hard World Juniors but 962 save percentage in Khl this season

OriginalPouzar

He also had a tough World Juniors last year. At the same time, don’t we know better than damning a prospect due to a tough few games at a tournament?

I suspect that Nashville would run to the podium and select Askarov again if the draft was tomorrow.

OriginalPouzar

Great power rush down the right wing to create his own scoring chance – Holloway’s best offensive play of the tournament.

fishman

Yea baby 2-0 Canada!!!!

wolf8888

great play in his own end to start it all as well

geowal

I can’t put my finger on it, maybe Chiasson, but imo LT the certain Oiler list is too long.

OriginalPouzar

Holloway starting today playing with Byfield and Perfetti.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

On paper that line has tantalizing potential.

OriginalPouzar

28 of the 31 AHL teams will be playing (pretty good – better than expected) starting on Feb 5. Bakersfield will be in a 7-team Pacific division.

5 teams were granted temporary relocation – Condors not mentioned so I anticipate they are playing in Bakersfield:

https://twitter.com/AHLPR/status/1346214826578567168

defmn

Not sure what the 5th team is. Charlotte, Springfield & Milwaukee opting out.

John Shannon

Note: 4 AHL teams have been granted provisional relocations for the season: Binghamton will play in Newark, N.J.; Ontario will play in El Segundo, Calif.; Providence will play in Marlborough, Mass.; and San Diego will play in Irvine, Calif.

Elgin R

I worked a few years in California based out of Bakersfield and the driving can be a nightmare (even at night). Drove from Bakersfield to Huntington Beach regularly. The Gulls moving to Irvine is great for the Condors as it is an easy 3 1/2 hour drive going the long way and avoiding LA. Saves 1 1/2 hours each way vs San Diego. Also, good for the Ducks as Irvine is only 1/2 hour from Anaheim.

OriginalPouzar

Thank you for that info.

barry.moore23

Travis Hamonic has been one of my favorite players since he stepped up to fight Gudbranson after the hit on Dube in 2018. Another one of my faves is Quinn Hughes. How awesome it is to be able to watch all of the talent in the NHL. When I was a kid it was Blackhawks radio and The Sporting News. Now it’s every team every game. Go Oilers !!

LadiesloveSmid

Really will need Jones to step up like Bear did last season. I suspect Bouchard will play more games than not, based on pure talent. Defence has a lot of potential but that is all at this stage!

Less worried about forward depth this year. Hopefully Turris finds his game between Ennis/JP. Backup goalie big hole still!

Abbeef

I posted this above in response to HH, but it got me thinking about how truly under-rated Nurse is by the fanbase. I am also posting here so it doesn’t get lost in the responses.

Player, Points, GF%, GF% (against elites), TOI against elites, context

Nurse, 33, 46.2%, 58.1%, 35.6%, Little pp time hurts points
Hughes,53, 50.5%, 63.6%, 32.6%, great player
Schmidt,31, 51.2%, 58.8% missed games hurts points, also great team helps GF,
Giordano, 31, 54.7%, 60.0%, 38.4% better than I expected, but should drop off soon
Andersson, 22, 46.9%, 60.9%, 26.6% sheltered, lacks offense, not yet in Nurse’s class but tracking well.
Morrisey, 31, 48.5%, 39.0%, 41.5%, mostly plays against elites and gets caved.
Reilly, 27, 53.0%, 50.0%, 37.2%, missed games hurts points, great player
Brodie, 19, 53.3%, 62.5%, 34.4%, big drop in points last year, could rebound with Leafs
Weber, 36, 53.3%, 48.8%, 41.1%, still elite, when will it drop?
Petry, 40, 48.6%, 43.9%, 34.1%, Very similar stats as Nurse but with more PP time
Chabot, 39, 48.8%, 39.5%, 32.6%, GF% hurt by weak team, real deal

My takeaway from looking at the stats

More effective than Nurse – Hughes, Reilly, Schmidt, Chabot (I discounted a lot of GF% to weak team)
About equal to Nurse – Giordano, Brodie, Weber, Petry
Less effective than Nurse – Anderrson (not really close as of last season), Morrisey (can’t defend elites effectively),
I count 4 players on the Canadian teams that are demonstratably better than Nurse.

Elgin R

Good summary – thanks. To distill this further, #1LD from each team at EV strength from last season.

Name (Team): GP / ATOI / pts / oZS% – Context
Hughes (Van): 68 / 17.8 / 28 / 59.1 – holy ‘heavily sheltered’ Batman
Giordano (Cal): 60 / 18.2 / 18 / 49.0 – good but missed 15% of season
Nurse (Edm): 71 / 20.1 / 28 / 50.9 – steady, plays every game
Morrissey (Wpg): 65 / 20.0 / 19 / 52.4 – sheltered and low points
Rielly (Tor): 47 / 19.5 / 20 / 50.0 – missed 33.8% of the season!
Chabot (Ott): 71 / 22.2 / 28 / 48.0 – the real deal (sorry James)
Chiarrot (Mtl): 60 / 19.7 / 21 / 49.3 – good but missed 15% of season

Conclusion: Looking at the summary above, along with the stats you provided, indicates that Nurse is at least equal to all the others with the exception of Chabot (Hughes will have to prove he can do it with an equal oZS%). I put a large emphasis on # of games played – if you’re not there you can’t help – and Nurse and Chabot played the most!

jp

I’d note that Hughes is #1D only in a projected/theoretical sense.

If you define a teams #1D by overall TOI, even strength TOI and by strength of competition faced, Edler was the Canucks #1D last season. I also have a major issue with calling any defenseman a #1D if they aren’t among the 4/5 regular penalty killers on a team.

With Schmidt added, Hughes may need to wait a few more years to claim that title in any real way.

Harpers Hair

Phhhhttt…

TOI last regular season:

Edler 22:37
Hughes 21:53

A difference of 44 seconds game.

You’re not likely aware that Edler started the season on the #1PP which would have boosted his TOI.

After about 8-10 games, Hughes took that spot.

In the playoffs Edler averaged 12 seconds more than Hughes only because he was on the PK..

Assessing defensemen by whether or not they kill penalties is ridiculous…teams hire PK specialists for that very reason and allow their best players to produce offence.

See Connor McDavid for reference.

Abbeef

Thanks, I was going to look up OZS% but didn’t. It definitely adds to the picture.

Harpers Hair

What blather.

oZS% has nothing to do with ability…it’s a function of deployment.

During the Sedin era, they were given overwhelming oZSs to maximize their offensive potential…NOT because they couldn’t play defense…in fact they were among the best 200 foot players on the team and in the league.

Hughes gets the same deployment for the very same reasons.

Number of games played is a ridiculous factor unless a player has a history of chronic injuries…say like Klefbom. Otherwise injury is random.

By your logic… the best player is the one most often stuck in his own end who hasn’t been fortunate enough not to get hurt.

pts2pndr

Look on the bright side if he isn’t as good as you seem to think he is there is a distinct possibility possibility of making first team mascot.

Harpers Hair

Oh, the tears you are going to shed in 10 games this season.

pts2pndr

Tears of joy!

Side

By your logic, Broberg was responsible for 2 goals against when he wasn’t even on the ice, Draisaitl is Joe Colborne and Brogan Rafferty is 2nd line material.

The “by your logic” card is not one you want to play.

Abbeef

What metrics do you point to that show Nurse as inferior to all the players you listed?

jp

Jaxon

Reply to  Harpers Hair

January 4, 2021 2:07 pm

Nurse’s Last 3 Seasons. Ranking over 235 GP 5v5 stats:

Goals – 24th

Assists – 6th

Points – 7th

IPP (Individual Points Percentage) – 45th

Shots on Goal – 4th

iXG (Individual Expected Goals Created) – 5th

iCF – 4th

iFF – 4th

iSCF – 4th

iHDCF (individual high danger Corsi for) – 3rd

Rush Attempts – 2nd

Rebounds Created – 37th

Penalties Drawn – 19th

Hits – 11th

Shots Blocked – 9th

But, na, he’s a bum. Barely even a #4D?

I thought this was a pretty nice accompaniment to your post for some of the other things Nurse does well.

Abbeef

Agreed

OriginalPouzar

Thanks for this. The zone exit, zone entry and scoring chance data that Gregor presented a few months ago was also very informative and lead to the potential that Nurse has no offensive IQ and can’t make a play in the offensive zone may be a bit of a myth (i.e. the data showed that, not only was he by far the best on the team and high in the league for zone entries but, once he entered the zone, scoring chances resulted at a higher rate).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

John Shannon with Bob right now. Just intimated — almost outright said — there were issues between Connor and Jesse in the past and Connor’s agent played a pivotal role in bringing JP back to the team.

“I wouldn’t be surprised. You also wonder if Jeff (Jackson) might have played a role in smoothing the waters between players too. Between Connor and Jesse. Which would be a postive as well. That’s not to say that they disliked each other but obviously, at times, it would be fair to say there were some frustrations. And that was an important part.”

Abbeef

It was never said but it seemed likely. Also seemed like Draisaitl felt the same way.

Reja

Stirring the pot on the first day.

OriginalPouzar

and Nurse laid out Drai a little while ago in the dressing room – I think it would be fair to say there were some frustrations.

As I’ve said before, if there were some issues between the players, well, if Jesse’s insertion in to the lineup would make the team better and help it win more hockey games, I would expect that Connor, Leon and every other player would welcome him back with open arms notwithstanding any personal issues. Team comes first. Not every player is going to get along with all other players in the room.

Harpers Hair

Doesn’t reflect well on the captain.

defmn

All the players mentioned are older now.

I remember seeing Jason Smith beat the crap out of Ryan Smyth during TC one year – blood all over his face – and when Smyth muttered something about it at the face off you could hear Jason clear as a bell offering to come over and finish the job if Ryan opened his mouth again.

They managed to play together for years after that.

OriginalPouzar

My point!

Any personal issues that Connor (or anyone else) had (or have) should be a non-issue. If the player can help the team win hockey games, that’s what matters.

That should have been the attitude in 2018 and should be the attitude now.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

God, I loved Jason Smith.

SwedishPoster

My guess at a surprise development in camp is that one of the righties ends up playing LD opening night. If I were to guess one of Barrie/Bouchard with Larsson. Stay tuned.

wolf8888

Interesting thought. Do you know if Barrie every played the other side and if so what his results were?

Material Elvis

Tippett loves lefty-righty pairings so I would be shocked.

Jordan

Down with the Leftorium!
Long Live the Rightorium!

Ryan

IIRC it was Woodguy who pointed out that right shot defenseman are particularly terrible at playing on the other side since they almost never have to do it (due to the abundance of left shot defensemen).

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster

My guess at a surprise development in camp is that one of the righties ends up playing LD opening night. If I were to guess one of Barrie/Bouchard with Larsson. Stay tuned.

I do believe that Bouchard is going to make a strong push for the lineup during camp – from Stauffer (multiple times), he’s in fantastic shape.

At the same time, I don’t see the veteran coaching staff asking the rookie to play his off-side as he tries to establish himself in the NHL. Coach T. is known for putting players in a position to success and has expressed many times that he prefers rightie/leftie.

They seem to have 4 legit NHL LD plus Lagesson, plus Lennstrom.

You could be right, of course. I don’t see it though.

P.S. Both Bouch and Barrie on their natural side today and Jones/Larsson a pair, as we saw when Klef was out last season.

Ryan

Tippett likes his lefty-righties except when it concerned Russell in the play in round (over Benning for the Larsson replacement).

At the beginning of the season, Persson played with Klefbom in a heavily zone sheltered pairing.

Agreed that Tippett also likes putting players in a position to succeed.

Right-righty pairings are especially bad from my recall of the old corsi data (that exposed issues with lefty-lefty pairings).

pts2pndr

This could happen but it hasn’t happened often in my recollection. This is due for the most part because of the large variance in number of left shot D over right shot D. This could be a great prediction and one that will enhance your already great reputation. Thank you for your many great posts!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’m excited to see how Tyler Ennis gels with the team this year with the benefit of a full training camp. He showed some flashes last year after being acquired at the trade deadline.

I think he has potential to surprise. Skill guy, versatile, and a veteran who does a lot of little things well. I see him as a glue guy who’ll bring some of the intangibles that guys like Hendo brought to the room. Strong signing in my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

Damn the chart comparisons between this season and last showed marked improvement in my opinion – just wow.

Of note, Stauff says Bouchard looking good early and is in fantastic shape.

Bling

Bouchard will play a major role this season. I think he will supplant Larsson, and that he should be playing a regular shift ASAP.

My rationale:

1 – Bear and Barrie will soak up minutes on the top two pairings.
2 – Larsson’s defensive acumen is not as useful in a third pairing role.
3 – Bouchard on the third pairing creates favourable conditions for double shifting 97/29
4 – Two elite RHD PP quarterbacks in Bouchard and Barrie.
5 – Larsson declined last year. Is there a strong reason to believe he will rebound?

Larsson’s PK spot can be taken up by Russell, who can swing over to the opposite side as needed.

OriginalPouzar

Bling

Bouchard will play a major role this season. I think he will supplant Larsson, and that he should be playing a regular shift ASAP.

My rationale:

1 – Bear and Barrie will soak up minutes on the top two pairings.

2 – Larsson’s defensive acumen is not as useful in a third pairing role.

3 – Bouchard on the third pairing creates favourable conditions for double shifting 97/29

4 – Two elite RHD PP quarterbacks in Bouchard and Barrie.

5 – Larsson declined last year. Is there a strong reason to believe he will rebound?

Larsson’s PK spot can be taken up by Russell, who can swing over to the opposite side as neede

I agree that Bouchard will play a major role this year – injuries happen and I believe he’ll play around half the games, potentially more.

With that said, I don’t see it as a replacement for a regressing Larsson and I would suggest that Larsson was VERY good in 2020 (August notwithstanding). He did struggle when he came back from his broken leg but, once the calendar turned, he was back to 2017 Larsson and was a big part of the team’s success in 2020.

I anticipate we will get THAT player and THAT player is an important player that makes this team much better – harder to play against.

As far as Russell “taking Larsson’s PK spot” – we are counting on both those guys to up their PK minutes to make up for Klef’s minutes – neither Jones nor Barrie are likely to see material PK minutes.

Last edited 8 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Bling

I agree with you. He was much better in the second half.

But overall, by GF%, he was the worst regular Oiler D man last season. Injury is part of it. I agree he brings a dimension that the D-corps lacks, but he certainly can’t be a 43% goal share D man going forward, particularly with a guy like Bouchard available.

If Larsson plays 3rd pairing with Russell, who moves the puck?

Russell + Larsson versus gritensity last season ran a 45% goal share.

http://www.puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8476457&teammate=8471729

Bouchard on the third pairing will be too tempting a weapon for Tippett, IMO.

Reja

How many teams in the league would have Bouchard playing 3rd pairing soft parade second 2PP minutes this year. Most everyone in these parts has him pencilled in as a press box cheerleader regardless of what he brings in camp. I’ve been craving a D-man for years who can make and receive a pass at ease make a stretch pass on the tape to Mcdavid and company.

OriginalPouzar

Reja

How many teams in the league would have Bouchard playing 3rd pairing soft parade second 2PP minutes this year. Most everyone in these parts has him pencilled in as a press box cheerleader regardless of what he brings in camp. I’ve been craving a D-man for years who can make and receive a pass at ease make a stretch pass on the tape to Mcdavid and company.

I’m at a loss as to why you refuse to acknowledge that the 6 d-men that line up for opening night are not going to be the 6 d-men that line up for 56 straight games and that the 4LD and 4RD are both likely to play significant NHL games this year.

The above leads to the likelihood that Bouchard will play many games in that sheltered 3rd pairing.

If he is gifted that spot coming in to training camp without another NHL established option then, when those injuries hit, he is no longer playing sheltered 3rd pairing minutes but foisted in to the top 4 playing tougher comp.

Recall moving Petry in the name of Justin Schultz.

Recall Darnell Nurse being moved up from the 3rd pairing early in his career.

Last edited 8 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Reja

I’m still pissed they didn’t insert him into the line-up against the wide open Hawks after Larsson went down and our so called offensive D Kelfbom was playing with one arm. Look at the tape the Hawks were inviting Oscar to shoot from the point on their PK. These players aren’t Robots besides talent confidence is a thing for most of them. Who knows getting shunned when I believe he was by far the best option in the play-ins will make him even hungrier

Last edited 8 months ago by Reja
OriginalPouzar

Reja

I’m still pissed they didn’t insert him into the line-up against the wide open Hawks after Larsson went down and our so called offensive D Kelfbom was playing with one arm. Look at the tape the Hawks were inviting Oscar to shoot from the point on their PK. These players aren’t Robots besides talent confidence is a thing for most of them. Who knows getting shunned when I believe he was by far the best option in the play-ins will make him even hungrier

Bouchard’s insertion over Jones would have been some kind of decision after Jones played 40 games last year in the NHL and a decent amount as a top 4 fill-in down the stretch.

Bling

To clarify, I am not in favour of moving Larsson at all. You need 8-10 D. He is veteran cover and you need that.

Is he one our top 3 RHD? I’m not sure.

OriginalPouzar

Bling

To clarify, I am not in favour of moving Larsson at all. You need 8-10 D. He is veteran cover and you need that.

Is he one our top 3 RHD? I’m not sure.

I would suggest that the Larsson we saw in 2020 is indeed and a highly valuable contributor to the team.

Material Elvis

That’s great and all but how does Valimaki look?!

OriginalPouzar

Obviously better than Bouchard given his GM didn’t create adequate competition for him.

That leads great in to a conversation on how great Jesse should be this year – I mean, he was arguably the best player in Liiga last year, and we’ve been told that Valimaki’s performance in that league proves how NHL impactful he will be.

Harpers Hair

Valimaki was a PPG player coming off a major injury.

Did Jesse score a PPG?

Isnt one of these players a defenseman and the other a forward?

OriginalPouzar

Was Valimaki up for best player in the league after a full season?

Its interesting how one dominant performance is indicative of NHL success while another dominant performance is not.

Of course, just a different sent of “rules” as they apply to the Oilers and their player in your mind – you can’t honestly say otherwise, we all know this.

Harpers Hair

No…he was injured…how could he? And, in fact, without the injury Valimaki would have been playing in the NHL.

But in a head to head short season in Liga, Valimaki scored 19 points in 19 games.

Jesse only scored 12 points in 16 games.

Obviously, a defenseman outscoring a forward in the same league is pretty good tell.

And, since you believe age is a determining factor, Valimaki is 6 months younger.

OriginalPouzar

Again:

On the one hand, you discounted Jesse’s dominant performance in Liiga, over a full season, where he was arguably the best player in the league as essentially meaningless because of the league.

On the other hand, you use Valimaki’s dominant 21 games as evidence of him ready to star in the NHL.

Narratives – every time.

Harpers Hair

Speaking of narratives…a #4 overall pick plays well in the fifth best league.

A 22nd overall pick who was drafted a year later and lost an entire season to injury who is a defenseman outscores him.

Smart money is on the defenseman…every time.

OriginalPouzar

Again, this has nothing to do with Puljujarvi vs. Valimaki and never was.

Its simply you discounting a dominant performance in one league when it fits your narrative as anti-Oiler and putting stock in to a dominant performance in the same league when it fits your narrative (pro rival of the Oilers).

——

You put all this stock in Markstrom helping the flames – obviously based on performance as a Canuck yet Barrie can’t be included in a tier of d-men because his performance was based on non-Oiler results.

——

The same BS, night after night after night.

OriginalPouzar

I’m sure Ryan McLeod will indeed get rave reviews out of camp, just like he did last year and just like every big and fast skilled prospect does in camp – big and fast always “stand out” in camps – see McLeod last year, see Broberg in the summer.

We also, know that despite this combo of size and speed standing out in camp, it does not equate to NHL readiness – see McLeod last year, see Broberg in the summer.

The last time we saw McLeod in North America, he was a bottom six/middle six winger/center in the AHL and has since played a bit in Europe. For me, the AHL is the perfect place for his this year, he and Marody can be the top two centers as, for me, McLeod needs to play as a legit top 6 center in the AHL and kill those minutes before he’s a legit NHL option.

Do that for this season and we’ll talk about the NHL in Septmber.

OriginalPouzar

Gregor saying, on the show, that he’s pretty sure either Kahun or Neal is the player that is hurt and won’t be ready to start the season (he has speculated based on a conversation with Holland last week that there would be such a player).

He thinks its Neal but that’s not confirmed yet.

Based on the lines today, I’m thinking it might be Kahun. I mean, we all a lot Kahun in to the top to start and Ennis as 3LW to start and, if Kahun was just going to miss a day or two, presumably, they would fill his hole on the lines with a fill-in (Benson or someone like that) and have Ennis play with those he’s slatted to start the season with. Having Ennis as 2LW might signal that they are looking at him in that spot on the 13th – my thought.

Reja

If it’s Neal that’s hurt Im not talking about you but do you remember mostly everyone saying it would be Neal put on waivers and I was laughed at for suggesting otherwise. I said I can’t see Holland going that route and made a off the cuff remark that Neal and Holland have been around the block more than once and that he’ll go on IR instead with a groin pull.

Redbird62

So help me understand. If what you say is correct, Neal would be deeply insulted to be assigned to the AHL at the end of camp and have to clear waivers only to be immediately recalled once Klefbom is on IR and Neal would be available on the first day of the season. All of this is a perfectly legitimate move on the part of the Oilers under the CBA and they and Neal only risk that someone would claim Neal and his $5.75 MM salary and have to immediately place him on their roster.

Instead, Holland comes to Neal and in order not to insult him, asks him to fake an injury so he can go on long term IR for 28 days or 10 games so that the Oilers can be cap compliant on day one. Neal, the Oilers and their licensed doctor would have to lie to the NHL assigned doctor if the NHL chose to investigate the legitimacy of this. On top of that, the Oilers have now implemented this strategy on day 1 of camp instead of waiting until the end so Neal won’t get to practise with the Oilers until the 11th game of the season. Does wonders to get a 33 year old ready for action having played 4 games in the last 10 months.

Do I have that correct? Is this the brilliant strategy you think the Oilers will follow to get cap compliant on day 1?

Last edited 8 months ago by Redbird62
Reja

We don’t even know if it’s Neal and his groin but let me fill you in there’s a bit of a difference between being NHL ready and Walmart greeter ready.

jp

They also couldn’t waive Neal and use him to get cap complaint if they put him on IR.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

No, you were laughed at for suggesting Neal would be butthurt and sulk as a result of his ego being bruised by a paper transaction.

Reja

It’s called spitballing but it sounds like you’ve talked to Holland and Neal on this matter since your so smug sure of yourself.

Redbird62

You were the one commenting on the news of Neal’s absence as rebuttal to people’s prior comments on how a Neal “injury” could be the solution. I have no proof that no player has ever been placed on IR for illegitimate reasons nor have I heard of proof that teams have done this. Nonetheless, that the Oilers would do this solely to avoid insulting Neal makes no sense since this would be even more insulting to him than the waiver option and provide far less optionality to Tippett for 28 days. Neal will only be on LTIR at the start of the year if he is legitimately deemed unfit to play due to injury for the first 10 games.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Spitballing, often and loudly, in a smug and self-assured manner is precisely how I’d describe the unsubstantiated platitudes you post on a daily basis.

Such gems as:

— Rask will never again play for BOS after opting out in the playoffs
— Larsson is a fragile Euro
— Neal will pout over a meaningless roster transaction
— Turris is Tippett’s boy
— Chaisson is due for a breakout year (after a career high shooting %, no less)
— Nurse lacks commitment

… and on and on.

I hardly need to be lectured about having a plausible/believable point of view by the Don Cherry of the blog. But by all means, carry on. You do you.

Reja

Let’s see if the Bruins resign Rask next year. I never ever mentioned Larsson was nothing but tough. What are you Kreskin how do you know what Neal’s thinking. Maybe you don’t but I definitely think 3C Turris will flourish under his old boss Tippett. It’s debatable but yes I think Chase beat the odds on this board and covered his bet. If Nurse is our 1D and it’s of my opinion he needs physically and some nasty in his game to be effective unlike say a Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. I saw Nurse not engaged enough in the play-ins. Ooh the beating up on a 86 year-old Don Cherry is so last year.

defmn

As mentioned yesterday it is highly unlikely that Rask wants to play after this season.

“I have one year left in the contract, so we’ll see if I even play,” Rask told Matt Porter of the Boston Globe. “We’ll see. [Retirement is] always a possibility.”

Rask said if he calls it a career in the NHL, he’ll call it a career everywhere. So he won’t be popping up between the pipes in his native Finland, but rather enjoying life as a family man with his two young daughters (and a third on the way).

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/03/23/bruins-tuukka-rask-hints-at-retiring-after-current-contract-ends/

Reja

You never know NHLers change their minds are they say something to be used as a bargaining chip. Lucic almost up and quit with 3 years left on his contract. I’m not going to start every 2nd sentence with I don’t think it’s fair or I don’t think it’s right. Anyhow here’s a hypothetical question for you. If Mcdavid opted out of the play-ins and let’s say we got smoked by Chicago. Do you think he would have lost a certain percentage of his fan base are maybe you think he would gained more support.

Mcdavid’s a good kid when he said yesterday about a loaded question where he responded were doing it for the fans I know he meant it. I know most of these kids hear the good and the bad stories about them playing a game while so many people are sick and dying not just from COVID but suicides, overdoses, job losses, financial ruin the list goes on.

OriginalPouzar

Lucic almost quit this past off-season?

jp

He thinks its Neal but that’s not confirmed yet.

Based on the lines today, I’m thinking it might be Kahun.

What were the lines today?

It would be odd if Neal wasn’t available due to some sort of visa issue, not being playing and all…

OriginalPouzar

Nuge/McDavid/Kassian
Ennis/Drai/Yamamoto
Archie/Turris/Puljujarvi
Nygard/Khaira/Chiasson

Nurse/Bear
Jones/Larsson
Russell/Barrie
Koekkoek/Bouchard
Lagesson/Lennstrom

—–
Neal was coming from the US
Kahuna coming from Europe

jp

Thanks.

Ennis, Archibald and Nygard all look like placeholders on their respective lines to me.

Cool to see how Tippett has started out with the D, this is what most expected, but a few like myself thought Barrie would get the spot next to Nurse.

And on Neal, I was basically saying there’s no excuse for him being late getting back from the US, given that he wasn’t playing or anything. Kahun makes a little more sense.

Though if Neal really is the one injured that could explain a lack of urgency.

OriginalPouzar

Its moot now as we unofficially know that its Neal that may miss the beginning of the season (although its not long term) and Kahun should be back but, if Tip is planning on playing Khaun as 2LW, I wish he would have put another placeholder there (like Benson) in order to keep Ennis with the linemates he’s likely to start with (and it would give a shot to a guy like Benson) – this took Ennis and Archie away from likely linemates.

Ya, I’ve posted about the potential for Nurse/Barrie to be a pairing as well and we’ve discussed. At the same time, with a short camp and no X games, I felt confident that Tippett would put the familiar pair together of Nurse/Bear.

I agree with you on no excuses to not be in town in time to get proper quarantine, etc. in and be ready for day one. I would actually extrapolate that and include Kahuan in that. He was hardly playing over in Europe (the DEL isn’t playing, he played that Channel One Cup or something) and, even if he was, NHL is primary and all players should have ensured they would be back in time (Haas excluded).

EIther way, we know that’s not it with Neal or Kahun – but with injuries.

leadfarmer

As Nashville showed last year not only you need top defensemen but just as importantly you need depth. Doesnt matter if your top 4 does really well if your bottom pairing gives it all away.
Same goes for forwards.
For the first time in a long time this team has depth and thats with losing our top d man for the season

Ryan

Glad to see you’re also excited about our depth for this up coming season.

flyfish1168

Disheartening 4 players unfit to start Camp, Neal, Kahun, Haas & Shore

John Chambers

Down a quart at Left Wing.

Tyler Benson, “Knock knock”

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Source?

flyfish1168

edmonton journal

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Thanks.

I’ve since heard as much as well on LT and Bob’s shows.

Do we have any idea if this is covid related or the old Teddy Puckman move?

wolf8888

any word on in what way they are unfit? Injury, fat, Covid? 🙂

OriginalPouzar

flyfish1168

Disheartening 4 players unfit to start Camp, Neal, Kahun, Haas & Shore

Well, we knew that Haas would be a few days late as, while he didn’t get Covid, he was a close contact and wasn’t able to leave Europe until, I believe the 29th – he’ll be fine.

Shore is likely an immigration/quarantine protocol thing as he just signed his PTO a few days ago and, assuming he had to travel to Edmonton, there is a protocol.

One of Neal and Kahaun is likely an immigration/quarantine protocol think but, as I mentioned earlier, one of the is injured and unlikely to start the season – Gregor has been speculating on this (per a conversation with Holland from last week).

John Chambers

Alan Quine has been brought to camp to prevent the team from getting Malaria.

Pescador

According to flyfish it does not appear to be working

Reja

Great now you have me looking at sexy photos of Jane when she was practising.

jp

Archibald on McDavid’s wing I think is my least favorite setup.

Abbeef

It is interesting though that Archibald could start in any right wing spot on the roster from top line to pressbox except Leon’s wing (I would argue Yamo has that locked up).

jp

True, though I’d be kinda shocked if he started the season with McDavid (could see him back there through the season though).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Archibald is a right-handed Caggiula who kills penalties. Strong motor but no hands.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Archibald not on McDavid’s wing was in the GF% range of 26% least year……

jp

Yup, not pretty.

Ugly shot rates WITH McDavid too, though they ran hot and outscored.

Jordan

Anyone who doesn’t play Nuge with Leon and Yammo as out defacto first line is S T U P I D.

Treat Kahun, Connor and Archibald as a second line, or you’re S T U P I D.

Playing Chris Russell with Tyson Barrie is really, really S T U P I D.

Arguing with me about any of my statements of truth above is really S T U P I D.

Let the verbal beatings commence!

jp

Briefly thought you were serious, but this is excellent.

Pescador

This is really helpful, I was getting tired of being S T U P I D.
Turns out I just needed your direction haha

Last edited 8 months ago by Pescador
Reja

Is it ok to loathe the Flames and their dream team Burke, Hrudey, Buttons and of course the boss Cassie are is that just S T U P I D.

defmn

Since this time last year the entire 3rd line (Granlund, Sheahan, Gagner) is gone & 2/3 of the second line (Neal, Chiasson) are rumoured to be competing for fourth line spots.

That is progress up front.

The defence has 5 second pairing guys, imo. Some better than others but all within a range that looks 2nd pairing on a playoff team to me.

Goaltending remains a question although I still think Koskinen is ‘good enough’ as the starter to get them into the playoffs. Smith is the adventure.

Will the forwards support the defence better than in the past? I think the answer to that question will have a lot to say about how the season goes.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Well said.

With all these safe bets slowly raising the floor, I wonder what will transpire when Holland has some cap space to wheel and swings for the fences.

defmn

Who he trades to get a youngish goalie is what I am waiting to see. You can always upgrade but cap realities tell me that the forwards & dmen are likely to upgrade internally rather than through big name trade unless Nuge decides to leave.

A goalie in exchange for a dman is my expectation of a big trade from Holland.

jp

He kicked the tires (or more) on big name D and G.

I agree with you but also wouldn’t be shocked to see a move involving a ‘true #1 D’ either.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Something like Nurse for Carter Hart?

I love me some Darrel, but that’s a deal I’d have time for…

Eh Team

And one that the Flyers would laugh at, and then hang up.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Didn’t say it was realistic… just who I’d have time for if we’re trading out Nurse for a young goalie 😉

Reja

Sounds like you were Spitballing to me.

dustrock

LT has the link above but check out The Athletic’s look at the Oilers.

https://theathletic.com/2262994/2021/01/03/how-wed-run-the-oilers-maximize-connor-mcdavids-and-leon-draisaitls-primes/

If you trust Dom’s model, the Oilers have 2 elite centers, 2 top line wingers in RNH and Yamo, a top 6 winger in Kahun, and a top 4 d-man in Tyson Barrie.

No team has the roster filled with elite talent, but there is a huge drop-off after that and we’d better hope some of our prospects can fill the gap.

The Athletic crew here (which had none of the usual Edmonton contingent) was very down on the Oilers D, and Dom in particular suspects the D hurts both the forwards and the goaltenders.

To not have a single top-pairing d-man, let alone an elite d-man, in the prime of McDavid and Draisaitl is a travesty.

pts2pndr

A personal observation only is that central writers are to be kind are not really all that aware of the western teams. This is due to a large extent in their lack of viewing. They form their opinions, by my observation on watching hi-lights only of western games unless a certain eastern team they write for is playing a western team. This is due in large part to the time difference but also has to do the market they are playing to. Western writers for the most part seem to be more fair but they are able to watch games from all time zones without having to stay up until in sometimes one AM. The reality is since confederation much of central Canada is unaware of the west except we make too much money on oil and gas.

JimmyV1965

So if Barrie is considered a top 4 dman, where does this leave Nurse? IMO Nurse would be a top pair dmen on every team in the Canadian division. I’m a homer of course, but is there a Canadian team with two better dmen than Nurse?

Harpers Hair

#1LD Canadian Division teams.

VCR Hughes
CAL Giordano
WPG Morrisey
TOR Reilly
MTL Weber
OTT Chabot
—————
EDM Nurse

jp

Is Shea Weber a LD now?

Have you been using Wood guy’s phone?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Weber is 1RD.
Hughes is a sheltered 2LD who doesn’t kill penalties.

And Jimmy asked about teams with two defensemen better than Nurse. You’ve listed one per team and some are debatable.

Harpers Hair

Hughes in the best defenseman in the Canadian Division.

The he hasn’t been asked to kill penalties is meaningless and he is not “sheltered” but is put in a position to excel.

D better than Nurse:

Hughes
Schmidt
Giordano
Andersson
Morrisey
Reilly
Brodie
Weber
Petry
Chabot

If you squint hard enough, Nurse would be a top pair D in Winnipeg and Ottawa but would have to play his off side.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Meaningless.

Okay then.

A sheltered 2LD that doesn’t kill penalties, but is a 1D if you squint hard enough.

Just like Boqvist and Dobson are “put in a position to excel.”

flyfish1168

You need to provide your metrics or how you come to your conclusion. Your eye test is not so good. If you are looking at toughness only Nurse is number 1. So add that to your meter to get all around.

Abbeef

Player, Points, GF%, GF% (against elites), TOI against elites, context

Nurse, 33, 46.2%, 58.1%, 35.6%, Little pp time hurts points

Hughes,53, 50.5%, 63.6%, 32.6%, great player
Schmidt,31, 51.2%, 58.8% missed games hurts points, also great team helps GF,
Giordano, 31, 54.7%, 60.0%, 38.4% better than I expected, but should drop off soon
Andersson, 22, 46.9%, 60.9%, 26.6% sheltered, lacks offense, not yet in Nurse’s class but tracking well.
Morrisey, 31, 48.5%, 39.0%, 41.5%, mostly plays against elites and gets caved.
Reilly, 27, 53.0%, 50.0%, 37.2%, missed games hurts points, great player
Brodie, 19, 53.3%, 62.5%, 34.4%, big drop in points last year, could rebound with Leafs
Weber, 36, 53.3%, 48.8%, 41.1%, still elite, when will it drop?
Petry, 40, 48.6%, 43.9%, 34.1%, Very similar stats as Nurse but with more PP time
Chabot, 39, 48.8%, 39.5%, 32.6%, GF% hurt by weak team, real deal

My takeaway from looking at the stats

More effective than Nurse – Hughes, Reilly, Schmidt, Chabot (I discounted a lot of GF% to weak team)
About equal to Nurse – Giordano, Brodie, Weber, Petry
Less effective than Nurse – Anderrson (not really close as of last season), Morrisey (can’t defend elites effectively),

I count 4 players on the Canadian teams that are demonstratably better than Nurse.

JimmyV1965

I think it’s debateable to say Morissey is better. And Gio and Weber were better in the past, but it’s debatable today.

Side

You can’t tell when Broberg is on the ice and you don’t know that Weber is RD.

No wonder you post other peoples tweets or articles all of the time, your own analysis can’t even get the basics right.

Must be hard going about your day with an angry, unhealthy obsession towards the Oilers clouding your mind 24/7 for +30 years.

Get help.

pts2pndr

If you have to shelter a D man as Vancouver had to with Hughes he is NOT a bonafide top 2 D man much less a number one. You got to get away from that west coast bud or magic mushrooms or whatever you’re on.

Jaxon

Nurse’s Last 3 Seasons. Ranking over 235 GP 5v5 stats:

Goals – 24th
Assists – 6th
Points – 7th
IPP (Individual Points Percentage) – 45th
Shots on Goal – 4th
iXG (Individual Expected Goals Created) – 5th
iCF – 4th
iFF – 4th
iSCF – 4th
iHDCF (individual high danger Corsi for) – 3rd
Rush Attempts – 2nd
Rebounds Created – 37th
Penalties Drawn – 19th
Hits – 11th
Shots Blocked – 9th

But, na, he’s a bum. Barely even a #4D?

Woogie63

I think everyone saw how to play Hughes in the playoffs. If he take 56 games of big men dumping into his corner and forcing him to take a hit to make a pass, he be cheating little all the other small defenseman.

Harpers Hair

Yeah…that worked really well.

He only scored 16 points in 17 games.

jp

Looks like most of his points were on the PP.

And he had the worst 5v5 GF% of the Canucks top 4…

Woogie63

17 games 7 EVP, 9 PP and -2. Towards the end of the play-offs this guys was gun shy to get the puck dumped into his corner. We all saw it.
When the Canucks only play 6 other teams, he will spend a lot of time with his face and shoulder pushed against the glass. Small defenseman all have to learn to play with their back to a player that is +40 pounds heavier then them, we will see on Mr. Hughes.

dustrock

He mostly includes Barrie because of anticipated PP effectiveness.

OriginalPouzar

dustrock

He mostly includes Barrie because of anticipated PP effectiveness.

I anticipate Barrie’s primary impact will be at 5 on 5 where he has proven to be an elite driver of offence in the NHL.

Even last season, after Keefe too over on November 20, Barrie was 3rd among NHL d-men in 5 on 5 points (and he was 6th over the last three years in aggregate).

Barrie is a good puck mover but he is an elite rush contributor. He will be able to help get McDavid (and Drai) the puck in time, with speed, in the neutral zone but, more than anything, he is elite at joining the rush and being a creator, finisher and contributor on the rush – that’s his main skill.

Given McDavid is primarily a rush scorer/producer, getting him the puck “on time” and joining the rush with skill – this could be VERY good.

Barrie’s other primary skill is offensive zone half-game puck distribution and play and this should mesh very well when on the ice with Drai.

Nope, Barrie is not great defensively but he’s not a black hole – he’s generally played 2nd pairing comp his entire NHL career (apx 30% TOI vs. elites, sometimes higher) and, except for the Babcock month last year and the year the Avs were historically bad, so 90% of his career, he’s been a positive goal share guy.

I can’t wait to see Barrie’s effect at evens.

Eh Team

Hughes-Schmidt, Reilly-Brodie, Weber-Petry

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Dom’s model is getting to be a bit of a laughing stock at this point. Time for a reboot.

dustrock

Maybe. I think he goes too far in saying Nurse and Bear (and Larsson, for that matter) aren’t top 4 d-men, but I think it’s fair to say that none of them are top pairing. Bear might get there but with Nurse at this point WYSIWYG.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Nurse, Barrie and Bear (subject to sophomore regression) are all solid top pairing (but not 1D) NHL defensemen by eye and numbers. So is a healthy Klefbom.

Last edited 8 months ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
jp

You will certainly get some pushback on the eye part! (but not from me)

jp

He actually did apparently (made some updates to it since the playoffs since it wasn’t performing as well as it has been).

Results to be determined I guess.

Last edited 8 months ago by jp
Bling

Nurse and Bear not being considered “top 4” is Nuts with a capital N.

We have seen what it looks like when a bottom pairing D plays in the top 4 in these parts. Not pretty. Nurse and Bear more than held their own playing top pairing last season.

I don’t buy Yamamoto as a top line forward yet. I think he is top 6, but there will be a drop-off.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Both Bear and Yamamoto’s sophomore seasons will be fascinating to follow. Story lines as intriguing as JP’s return.

Eh Team

Goals for and against on 5×5 against all competition last year:
Nurse 61-71 -10
Bear 61-70 -9

That’s not really holding your own. But, in fairness, it’s probably mostly a reflective of how poor the Oilers 3rd and 4th lines were last year.

Nurse, Bear, Barrie and Jones are decent top 4 d’men though. Just hard to say any of them are strong first pair guys. I like Jones to really step up this year.

I’m mostly worried about Turris this year. He might score okay, but he’s really poor defensively. But perhaps having better wingers on the 3rd line (Ennis/JP) might make it workable.

jp

I’m mostly worried about Turris this year. He might score okay, but he’s really poor defensively. But perhaps having better wingers on the 3rd line (Ennis/JP) might make it workable.

Sheahan was 349th of 371 forwards in GA/60 (3.32) last season (at 5v5, more than 400 minutes played).

Turris almost can’t possibly be worse, while he’ll almost certainly be on for more GF.

Turris wasn’t great last season (3.19GA/60, 334th of the 371), but was under 2.60GA/60 every other season going back to 2011. He also had by far his worst on ice SV% in a decade last season.

It’s fair to doubt that Turris will get the 3rd line to 50% GF, but I find it very difficult to imagine a scenario where this years 3rd line doesn’t have significantly better results than last years version.

OriginalPouzar

To add to the Turris GF% conversation – in relation to he “might score OK”, even in his down years in Nashville, he was still around 0.5 P/G – something that would be a massive spike from any 3C the Oilers have had in years.

Even if Turris simply continues his Nashville production, it will get that 3rd line closer to 50% (and the indirect effects on the top 2 lines of having a 3rd line that can help produce some offence should be material).

jp

100% agreed.

Bling

That’s a good point. I remain optimistic based on their WoodMoneys against elite comp:

http://www.puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8477498&teammate=8478451

Nurse with Bear

Elite: 55% GF
Middle: 36% GF
Gritensity: 43.5% GF

ArmchairGM

Goals for and against on 5v5 against all competition last year Oct-Dec
Nurse 40-48 -8
Bear 39-47 -8

Goals for and against on 5v5 against all competition last year Jan-Mar
Nurse 24-23 +1
Bear 25-23 +2

More importantly, their “per-60” Oct-Dec
Nurse 3.09 – 3.71 = -0.62
Bear 3.14 – 3.78 = -0.64

Jan-Mar
Nurse 2.42 – 2.32 = +0.10
Bear 2.67 – 2.45 = +0.22

I suspect they played less with Draisaitl down the stretch, as their GF/60 dropped a lot in the second half, even as his line went bonkers in the scoring department.

The good news is their defense tightened up considerably over that stretch too as the rookie settled into his role and they got more comfortable together.

Bruce McCurdy

Bear & Nurse were 1-2 on the Oilers in EVTOi/GP (both in the top 20 of the NHL) & 2-1 in %TOi vs. Elites.

To suggest that they are somehow not even top 4 rearguards seems a stretch. Especially when one considers the Oilers had the best record of any Canadian team last season.

dustrock

It would be interesting to carve off Nurse & Bear without the black holes of Khaira and Sheahan, that’s for sure.

ArmchairGM

They were 7-8 with Sheahan and 5-6 with Khaira. I don’t think Khaira was 4C most of the year though, so that’s probably not a good proxy.

OriginalPouzar

What about carving off Archibald? He was apx 26% without McDavid last year….

dustrock

Riesen to believe baby! Had the hockey draft on Saturday, January 2nd. That was a trip. Meet by Zoom, trying to remember which teams were in which division, who’s hurt, who’s likely to be hurt, which teams get to play the Yotes, Ducks and Kings a whole bunch