One way to measure the quality of a team is by marking the last player sent out at the end of each year’s training camp. This year’s final cut will be a helluva player.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: 9 bold predictions for the Oilers’ season
- Lowetide: Early roster rumblings as Oilers open training camp
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers training camp: Forecasting the big roster battles
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway’s world juniors work offers clues about Oilers future
- Lowetide: The Bakersfield Condors will be competitive in the coming AHL season
- Athletic: How we’d run the Oilers: Maximize primes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Eric Duhatschek: How a stint in Sweden prepared Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard for NHL camp
- Jonathan Willis: After a brilliant rookie Oilers season, how high is Ethan Bear’s ceiling?
- Lowetide: How secure is Zack Kassian’s role on Oilers’ top line?
- Lowetide: Why fans should expect an Oilers playoff berth in Canadian division
- Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett has more options now thanks to versatile Oilers forwards
- Lowetide: 7 big questions facing the Oilers heading into next season
- Lowetide: What if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t sign with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Left-side logjam will force the Oilers to make a choice, and perhaps a sacrifice
- Lowetide: Theodor Lennstrom is the Oilers’ latest European bet on defence
- Lowetide: Seattle Kraken expansion mock draft 5.0: Who could the Oilers lose?
- Lowetide: Why McDavid and Nuge together could be key to Oilers’ playoff success
OPENING NIGHT AHL, 2015-16
The 2015-16 opener for the Condors featured a fantastic roster, with Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse the feature prospects. Other men who would emerge as NHL players who were with the Condors that night included Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Pitlick, Jordan Oesterle and Laurent Brossoit.
THE 2004-05 EDMONTON ROADRUNNERS
The 2004-05 AHL season is lost in the flood, but an interesting one due to the lost NHL season. Roadrunners of note on opening night included Doug Lynch (who lost his career to injury but had great promise), Jarret Stoll, Brad Winchester and Jeff Woywitka.
THE 2010-11 OKLAHOMA CITY BARONS
An underrated opening night group was the first OKC team. Jeff Petry was on that team, Taylor Chorney, Colin McDonald, Liam Reddox, Teemu Hartikainen, Linus Omark and Chris VandeVelde were new Barons. There was some good talent down there, not everyone made it but part of that came due to coaching and management turnover in Edmonton.
THE 2019-20 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS
Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod and Dmitri Samorukov were on the 2019-20 team, that looks like a gigantic future from here. Not all of these names will emerge as NHL players but there is a lot of talent here.
NOTES FROM CAMP
The scoring list from the first scrimmage included the usual suspects (97, 29, 93) but Jesse Puljujarvi and Joakim Nygard scored goals and Evan Bouchard’s performance drew positive reviews. Via Tony Brar, Oilers TV reporter, here are the official scoring results:
- Blue: Griffith (Kahun, Shore)
- White: Nygard (Bouchard, McLeod)
- White: McDavid (RNH, Kassian)
- Blue: Puljujarvi (Chiasson, Nurse)
- White (OT): McDavid (Draisaitl, Barrie)
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we kickstart the first weekend of 2021 (after a work week) with a strong lineup of guests. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will talk about the World Juniors, the NHL season to come (and where the Oilers will finish in the Canadian division) and some sports television. Chris Meaney from the FTN Network will preview the NFL weekend and Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 will discuss Oilers, NFL and some recent Edmonton Football Club signings. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Special Teams Practice for the Oilers and Holloway on the ice for Wisconsin – what a time to be alive!
I would not vote to ban HH and certainly don’t think people should be offended by being exposed to things they don’t agree with.
Agreed. We are all adults here, or at least we should try to act like one.
Democracy died today.
Good night.
You remaining on Lowetide?
Boys? I just discovered Canada’s Johnny Cash….pour a whiskey or a whisky and check out Colter Wall from one province east of ours.
Tony Brar
@TonyBrarOTV
·
Stats from the two scrimmages at Oilers Camp for whatever it’s worth:
McDavid – 4G, 1 GWG
Griffith – 2G
Nurse – 1G, 1A, 1 GWG
Nygard – 1G, 1A
Puljujarvi – 1G, 1A
Barrie – 2A
Bouchard – 2A
Draisaitl – 2A
Kassian – 2A
McLeod – 2A
Shore – 2A
12 others recorded one point. #Oilers
Does that mean if McDavid doesn’t score 112 goals this year, we should be disappointed?
224 I believe.
EDIT:
Whoops. In two games. You are right. We need 112 from him.
So is Griffith ‘pushing’?
Has there been a peep about him from anyone following the team?
(I guess Nygard, McLeod and Shore also showing well among the “uncertain Oilers”).
How do I delete my account on DSF/HarpersHair’s blog here? I don’t see the option when I go to log in.
I can do it for you, OilFire.
Neither Samorukov nor Tulio in the lineups for their respective teams today – not sure why.
Sammy didn’t play a few games ago, then he played 29 minutes and was plus 1 and now not in the lineup again……
Lavoie didn’t get any points but he wasn’t held off the scoresheet:
https://twitter.com/antonj85/status/1347632908782206983
Feisty. I like it.
Pretty big guy too.
Seems the Oilers haven’t drafted a skater under 6’3″ in the top 100 since Yamamoto. And actually Benson is the only other going back to McDavid’s draft.
Sounds like the WHL will be announcing a commitment to play at least 24 games – per Jeff Marek.
Here is hoping the OHL can follow suit but that may not be forthcoming.
Word tonight is that the NBA is going to fast track expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas in an effort to assist current ownership with lower revenues.
Since each expansion franchise will pay a fee well north of $1 billion, current ownership will reap more than $100 million each.
Oakview Group, owners of the new Seattle arena, have already committed…no word on who in Las Vegas.
I wonder if Bettman will also look at this.
A second franchise in Toronto must be very, very tempting.
But not quite yet I would think. He finally got the divisions balanced. More like a desperation move if things don’t improve as quickly or as well as hoped.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see it sooner rather than later.
Toronto makes a lot of sense but I’m not sure where another team would go to make it 34.
The Chicago area could likely support another team….just spitballing.
Have to bear in mind the NHL financial situation is much worse than the NBA
Houston, Atlanta (ha-ha), San Diego, Kansas City, Portland (the left one), Cleveland all have reasonable population bases. Quebec City would top my personal list.
I have to think Arizona eventually ends up in Houston…how long can that go on?
I would love to see Quebec City too but the corporate support just wouldn’t be there.
How does a $1B expansion fee equate to $100M for each of 30 teams?
How does well over $1 billion X2 equate?
If ‘well north of $1B” means “$1.5B” then it equates very well.
Seems like $1.5B would have been the number mentioned if it was that high though. I’ll acknowledge that’s a rather rich fee to get into the NBA.
An NBA franchise is a money machine.
There would be a lineup but it seems Seattle and Las Vegas already won the pot.
A sign of the new found Oilers depth: Nic Petan was on waivers today and not a post about claiming him…….
And people say you have no sense of humour. . . . 😉
Goals (& Assists) from EDM Scrimmage:
White: McDavid (Barrie, Draisaitl)
Blue: Turris (Archibald, Puljujarvi)
White: McDavid (Kassian, Koekkoek)
White: Ennis (Khaira, Lagesson)
Blue: Griffith (Benson, Larsson)
Blue: K. Russell (Bouchard, McLeod)
Blue (OT): Nurse (Shore, Nygard)
Wonder how Koekkoek-Bouchard are doing. It’s an interesting pairing.
Pretty good looking 4th pairing.
Encouraged by the early verbal on Jones as well. So far that bet is looking good from what I read.
That would have been our 2nd pair not too many years ago. 😉
I don’t know whether to like or hate this comment…
Hehe. A little of both, maybe?
Definitely 🙂
Nah, it is good.
The flames did the whole “game-day simulation” for their scrimmage yesterday – morning skate, meetings, naps, play at night.
I believe the Oilers did that back in July/August – didn’t work.
Anyways, Tip confirmed they are not doing that this year and here is the schedule:
Sat: Special Teams practice
Sun: Off-day
Mon and Tues: Two solid practices like they would do before any normal game day
Wed: OPENING NIGHT!
I wonder if any cuts are expected before Tuesday. It’s a weird year.
Maybe, we know they aren’t scrimmaging again – They may want to cut the for sure AHLers for the last two practices (Marody, Niemelainen, Stanton, Wells, Skinner, Quine, Griffith, etc.).
Can’t waive and assign to taxi squad until the 12th.
There’s literally no reason to cut anyone early though. They have nowhere to go. The cuts might as well stick around and watch the ‘Certain Oilers’ do their thing, then try to clear waivers during the big rush.
Whether its an official cut or they are just not dressed for practice, I wouldn’t think the distant bells should be on the ice come Monday/Tuesday.
Fair enough, we should be able to surmise the cuts even without any official word.
From scrimmages, its really looking like the coaches are going with the following for PK1/PK2
Nuge/Khaira
Nurse/Bear
Archie/Turris
Russell/Larsson
It’s looking like 4C is Khaira’s spot to lose.
Any word on who Ennis lined up with today?
Khaira.
Looks like Tippett’s going to get Turris involved as much as possible early on. A fresher Leon and Connor in the last 10 minutes of close games coming up.
So many fans here (Alberta residence) may not care about my dilemma, but if anyone has feedback on this it’s greatly appreciated. Regarding the recent SportNet TV schedule released today:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnet-broadcast-300-nhl-games-2020-21-season/
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnet-announces-2020-21-edmonton-oilers-broadcast-schedule/
Many games on SNW* are denoted with *regional restrictions apply. I was wondering if regional blackouts are going to apply this season. It seems the obvious answer is yes, however looking at several games, take Fri, Jan 22 5:00 PM MT @ TOR SNW for example. Is this to say Toronto fans will not be able to watch their home team play in that region. This doesn’t seem likely but reviewing the Toronto schedule it appears that is the only channel broadcasting the game:
https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/schedule/2021-01-01/ET/list
I know the NHL is pushing the NHL Live package hard this time around (my satellite Internet bandwidth won’t handle it), and I haven’t seen any NHL Centre Ice package revealed yet. I gotta figure this out, there’s 26 Sportsnet West* games, 3 Sportsnet Oilers* and 3 Sportsnet West** (** Calgary Flames home game broadcast), that’s 31 games that might not be televised in my region (Pacific) which is unacceptable… HELP!
Can’t answer your other questions, but I believe the regional broadcaster for Toronto Maple Leaf games is TSN, which could be why it wasn’t shown.
Yep, you’re right, stupid Leafs on TSN4, again regional restrictions… so I guess I’ll get to see 4 Oilers vs. Canucks games that aren’t broadcast on the SNW. Crazy, I pay for the entire SportNet channel listing (SNP/SNW/SNO/SN Oilers) and this happens… shameful!
I haven’t seen anything official yet but I expect to be paying for some sort of NHL package to see all 56 games this year.
Yes, we’ll get the Canucks games for free (I’m in the Pacific region as well)…and they occasionally designate games as “national” games (those should be free)…but if you want to watch all 56 games expect to be paying for them
The 82 game Centre Ice package is $200…so if you prorate the upcoming season I expect to be paying around $125…ish
I live rural and cut the cord years ago. There are a plethora of streaming options available that don’t require a paid subscription.
I too cut the cord and subscribe to Sportsnet Now+ for hockey.
Every game except those on TSN are available…no blackouts.
Thanks I will be checking it out!
No problem.
If you are in Alberta (the Oilers viewing region) and have the SN channels you will get all the games.
SNW denoted with regional blackout means those outside of the Oilers viewing region (which includes all of Alberta and more) won’t be able to view it – those in the region will.
Oilers/Leafs on SNW will be available to those in the Oilers viewing region and will be broadcast on another channel for those out east.
For the Oilers/Flames games that have the Calgary broadcast, the game will be available, it will be the flames broadcast team – they aren’t going to have two separate productions and split the SNW signal.
LT. How are we coming along on the blocking a poster on our feed option?
It isn’t going to be part of the blog.
can you please ban the troll then.
your anti trolling standards are seriously subpar and far below any other website including hfboards
Last time I banned the troll (he actually left) the board members begged me to let him back in. I said at the time he came back that I wouldn’t ban anyone again and that remains the case.
That’s not true boss man, you can’t really choose not to ban anyone. By allowing the troll, you’re banning us normals (I have stopped coming here except when stuck with slow internet like here in this ER).
All you have to do is not respond. The post dies on the vine.
I have no idea why posters here haven’t adapted to HH’s provocations. When he posts interesting things I engage. When he posts bullshit I ignore it unless it is directed towards me in which case I feel justified in whatever response I am in the mood to make.
It takes more than one to do a perfect tango.
The unfortunate part is, using today’s thread as example, HH posts so much garbage which people politely engage in you end up skipping most of the thread because he ends up doubling down the garbage until the conversation gets absurd. The good posts and conversation that don’t involve HH get buried in HH’s trash.
Meh, may as well just do something else.
It’s unfortunate that LTs site and community suffers as a result.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the people begging LT to let HH come back were actually just HH posting from multiple accounts. The guy needs help.
I assume the same. I have seen Andrew poison one hockey board after another over the years and, of course, his online persona actually matches his personality. He doesn’t know who I am but I have met him on a number of occasions. We both used to live in Edmonton after all.
I have just decided that since I have no control over his posting and the only person here who does is fine with it to not allow him to ruin my enjoyment and this is how I manage that.
As long as people keep taking the bait he will keep fishing. It’s really no more complicated than that.
And I have seen much worse. There are a lot of Dellow fans here. He was a fucking asshole of epic proportions when he popped out from under a rock on HF. I mean really and truly a fucking asshole. He was scorched earth every day all day to anybody who he thought didn’t deserve to post on a public forum.
Compared to him Andrew is a choir boy. So, as I said I enjoy chatting with Andrew when he is interested in talking hockey because he actually has a very good eye for the game and when he is playing his role as hall monitor or smartest man in the room I just scroll and move on.
I do understand that that takes some discipline from time to time. Maybe I am just getting too old to care anymore.
Well done.
You are so right in referencing the good old days of emerging hockey fancy stats and blogs.
It was far more acrimonious across the various sites than now and was not typically a welcoming environment for anyone green or that did not want to bow down and parrot to the egos that dominated the scene.
Although the best of them all was always class as far as I saw, Mr Ferrari.
And LT of course is almost always a beauty.
Looks like Holloway will be playing this weekend:
https://uwbadgers.com/news/2021/1/8/mens-hockey-quick-six-back-in-action.aspx
4. BOYS ARE BACK: In addition to Caufield and Holloway returning from World Juniors, the Badgers are expected to have the most complete roster they’ve had since their first series of the season back in November.
Dylan Holloway will suit up for the Badgers for the first time since their season-opening series against Notre Dame in November. He recorded a goal in each of the two games he played this season.
In trying to find out if Savoie will be keeping his 1LW once Bobby Brink returns, I find out I won’t be watching the Pioneers tonight:
https://www.nchchockey.com/news_article/show/1139540
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. – Due to a combination of positive COVID-19 tests, contact tracing and subsequent quarantining of individuals within the Denver hockey program, the Denver and Colorado College home-and-home series scheduled for this weekend, Friday, Jan. 8 and Saturday, Jan. 9, has been postponed, the National Collegiate Hockey Conference announced Wednesday.
The lineup the Oilers are likely to face for the opener.
Thomas Drance (@ThomasDrance) Tweeted:
#Canucks regular practice – the first of training camp – lineup ran through the first drills like this:
Miller-Pettersson-Boeser
Pearson-Horvat-Hoglander
Roussel-Gaudette-Virtanen
Motte-Beagle-Sutter
Eriksson, MacEwen
Edler-Schmidt
Hughes-Hamonic
Juolevi-Myers
Rafferty/Benn
Holtby in starters net
Demko
https://twitter.com/ThomasDrance/status/1347611929074835459?s=20
*yawn
The Canucks have some great pillars at the top of their lineup, but besides Horvat they have a very weak forward lineup from line 2 onward.
Also Markstrom was sensational last year. I’m not sure how far Demko and Holtby can take them but like the experts I have my doubts.
Don’t sleep on Hoglander.
He’s been a revelation at camp and has secured a spot on the second line.
I think the Canucks 3rd line is at least as good as the Oilers and apparently Roussel looks like his old self after spending much of last season lagging from injury recovery.
Gaudette got a medical diagnosis for an issue that has plagued him for years which resulted in him not being to eat properly and unable to keep on weight. It is now resolved so he may surge.
That fourth line though is expensive and ugly but at least they are competent penalty killers.
The D is surprisingly better than last season as the additions of Schmidt and Hamonic easily surpass what Tanev and Stetcher provided.
And, of course, having Juolevi arrive is a godsend. He’s been solid in camp with quiet feet and a calm demeanour. Paired with a puck mover like Myers should be perfect.
Of course, the goaltending is a question mark…anytime you replace a top goalie you’re taking a risk but I expect working with Ian Clark will help Holtby rebound…the question is how much.
Must admit that I’m a bit surprised that Höglander looks like he’s making the Canucks top 6 but couldn’t crack Rögle’s top 6 despite several chances. He had games where he looked like an absolute top SHLer and others where it felt like he was merely a warm body on the roster. I do think he’s a player who could benefit from playing with better players but still. Pretty massive different in quality between the two rosters. Will be an interesting story to follow, could be another dagger in swedish coaches unwillingness to play skill over safer players that follow the game plan strictly. Have to give the risk players more rope for them to blossom.
Hard to complain if you’re a Rögle fan though since they’ve been great this season. They also have a Canadian coach and GM. So more a dagger in the general checking above all style of play tbh.
Rousell’s best days are behind him as a career 0.357 pts/g player who is on the wrong side of 30. But he does bring a career 1.863 pims/g to the battle. Don’t worry, the Oilers PP is not that good so the Canucks should be OK.
I think every fan here can tell you its dangerous to put to much stalk into training camp performances.I’m not a fan of Roussel at all. I actually agree about the top 4 Though, I think it’s better than last year, I Really like Schmidt. You lost me at Juolevi being a godsend. He hasn’t shown the ability to be a strong defencman yet so until that changes, I’d rather have a proven guy.
Wait:
1) Holtby starting – but i’ve read so much about how Demko is essentially vezina caliber.
2) A rookie in the top 6 based on a surprising plus performance in camp? It’s not like performances from young skilled rookies in normal camps and exhibition games don’t reflect NHL readiness, year after year after year – I’m sure intra-squad scrimmages are more reflective.
3) Hamonic at 2RD – I’m sure he’s in tip top NHL games shape while still in quarantining and not attending so much as an NHL practice since March 2020.
4) Yes, Juolevi has arrived – I was informed of such in the playoffs after his 1-gam, 6-minute performance. What a god-send.
1) The Canucks will go 1A and 1B all season. Results TBD.
The Oilers will go with 1A and 2B all season. Results TBD.
2) Hoglander in Sweden has been playing against men since he was 16. He has earned a shot. Worth noting the player the Oilers drafted BEFORE him in the second round is playing in the minor leagues in Sweden and is likelu a year or two away.
3) I have no idea about Hamonic’s conditioning. Neither do you.
4) Would you believe Juolevi is only 22 and lost part of two seasons to serious injury and still made an NHL roster despite you calling him a bust? Go figure.
Last season:
Koskinen .917
Demko .905
Smith .902
Holtby .897
Last 2 seasons:
Koskinen .911
Demko .907
Holtby .905
Smith .900
Last 3 seasons:
Koskinen .911
Smith .907
Demko .906
Holtby .906
One of these goalies is almost 40 and his partner is older than the other two.
What could go wrong?
Koskinen’s age is not a concern in the least and you know that. Must be half the starting goalies in the league are his age or similar.
Smith’s age is the same concern this year that it was last year. He is near the end and everybody knows it. What nobody knows for sure is when that end will come.
It’s really the drop in Save % and GAA though more than the age – he still wins more games than most backups relative to losses.
Nobody blinked when Washington signed Lundqvist who is pretty much the same age.
I think everybody knows that Holland took a chance when he lost out on Markstrom & went back to Smith but it really isn’t all that different than the Canucks taking Holtby or Winnipeg playing Broissiot, or Toronto with Campbell, Ottawa with Hogburg or Calgary with Rittich. Montreal is really the only team in the division where the 2nd goalie doesn’t come with some kind of question.
With Toronto and Ottawa it is inexperience, Calgary & Vancouver disappointing last seasons, Winnipeg disappointing career. The bets are different but none of them are odds on favourites to succeed. Only the season will answer that.
Agreed…but some are already predicting failure in Vancouver without a shot being fired.
Meh. Oilers board. You know when you come here the bias is going to be strongly pro or anti the home team depending on how the last 20 minutes looked on the ice. 😉
Benning made a big bet on Holtby and really had no choice given that Demko could be ready and run with the starting gig or not be ready. Young goalies can cost GM’s their job faster than just about any other decision they make.
The decision I least understood regarding #2 goalie in the Canadian division is in Winnipeg. That is a head scratcher for me.
You singled Smith out as 2B when he’s actually had better results than Holtby. Both last season and if you go back further.
Smith also costs less than half as much as Holtby. I’m happy Benning signed that contract rather than Holland.
I have every doubt about Hamonic being in NHL game shape competition and I’m would suggest, if you are being honest, so do you.
It was noted by many that Oilers’ the intra-squad scrimmages saw the intensity and pace fade as they went on due to players not being in game shape – these are players that have been skating intensely as a group for a month (many of them) and practicing hard for 4 days first (and many trained and attended a camp and played playoff games in July/Agust) – Hamonic hasn’t skated with other nor had an NHL practice since March. There is no honest or unbiased opinion of him being in game shape. Come on.
Or not.
Who knows?
Every player that speaks about it, consistently
The reps from the 7 teams that didn’t come back for RTP that were adamant that get an extra 3 days at least of training camp.
I would imagine that Hamonic is in tip top shape, i would hope so at least. We know that does not equate to NHL game shape. I’m guessing quarantining right now isn’t helping.
Pearson isn’t spectacular, but he’s a legit 20 goal scorer. Hoglander might be lights out, but we’ve seen what happens when you gift players a top six role, even with a great training camp. Drai is the difference maker on our second line. He’s a top five centre in the league playing on the second line. We should have one of the best second lines in the league. If we don’t, Holland needs to move heaven and earth to get a legit top six winger.
*yawn…on an Oiler blog…?
Yawn…are you suggesting the Oilers don’t face any competition?
Or is this just an echo chamber?
the only echo chamber in here is your incessant posts trying to stir the pot and get attention…yawn
Pray tell, what’s your nom de guerre on Canucks blogs?
I’d love to see the context you’re posting on those sites. Where you ostensibly provide context aimed at dispelling the echo chambers of other teams’ fans. And their reactions.
Nobody cares, Pierce Hawthorne.
That is my favourite comment of the day, could not be more appropriate. I think a few others here could fill out the rest of the Community cast well haha
Because of these three things:
I would be perfect as Dean Pelton.
How come you proclaimed number one D man is playing second pairing? Where is the great blowgun rafter? It’s okay I won’t sleep on Hollander.
Myers is 3rd pairing already
A couple years too late for Myers. Canucks are a lesser version of the Oilers. Two top end players (but not as good as McD and Draisatl) and then a wasteland at forward after the top few guys. Add in iffy goaltending.
So, Miller and Horvat don’t count in your world?
Do you recall who was leading the playoffs in goal scoring when they finally finished?
Brayden Point was leading the playoffs in goals and points when they finished…
And is Horvat a “top player”? He’s been handily outscored and outshot at 5v5 the last 2 seasons. He’s only scored 1.59 points/60.
The Oilers have 8 forwards who scored better than 1.59 P/60 last year..
Horvat was leading the playoffs with 10 goals in 17 games when the Canucks were eliminated.
Point scored 14 goals in 23 games.
Do the math.
Late in the season and in the playoffs Green decided to go power vs. power with the Pettersson line and Horvat exploded.
People who predict the future based on the past with zero knowledge of the context are doomed to be wrong…a lot.
If…and it’s a big if…Hoglander turns into a legit top six forward, you’ll see a significant uptick in Horvat’s counting stats.
And having another elite puck moving D will help too.
Horvat was leading the playoffs with 10 goals in 14 games when the Canucks were eliminated.
Point scored 14 goals in 23 games.
Do the math.
Late in the season and in the playoffs Green decided to go power vs. power with the Pettersson line and Horvat exploded.
People who predict the future based on the past with zero knowledge of the context are doomed to be wrong…a lot.
If…and it’s a big if…Hoglander turns into a legit top six forward, you’ll see a significant uptick in Horvat’s counting stats.
And having another elite puck moving D will help too.
Is this the echo chamber I have been reading about. 😉
When did this explosion happen? Horvat had a nice scoring run in the playoffs but it was mostly PP fueled (like his regular season scoring was).
The last 10 games of the regular season at 5v5, Horvat got his head kicked in (4GF-11GA) and had zero goals and two assists.
In the 17 playoff games he scored 7 points at 5v5 (1.71 P/60) while the Canucks got 40% of the shots. His line did get lucky and they outscored 9GF-6GA though.
I’m seeing maybe an average 2nd line C.
And this Hoglander stuff… it’s pretty clear he’s likely very likely be worse than the NHL players Horvat played with last year. It’s a massive stretch to hope he’ll actually help Horvat improve his boxcars year over year.
Horvat spent a lot of time with Loui Eriksson last season…but continue your ridiculous narrative.
He was 15-16 five on five goal differential with Eriksson in 308 minutes. The real issue was 680 minutes with Pearson (24-33 goal share)
Who was the other winger?
That line was tasked with the toughest matchups and while Eriksson is a decent defensive player, he can’t piss a drop on offense.
As we’ve seen so often, who you play with makes a huge difference.
Boeser was often bumped down to the second line but his defensive game is still a work in progress which is easily covered when he’s playing with Miller and Pavel Datsyuk not so much against the toughs.
We’ll have too see if the easier matchups and having a buzzsaw on his wing to retrieve pucks is an improvement but Hoglander is an elite skater who has been described by his team mates as a helicopter…because he can skate at full speed in any direction.
Watching Hoglander and Yamamoto over the next few seasons should be fascinating since they’re pretty much fulfilling the same role.
What does that have to do with the content of my post?
Did you do the math? Horvat scored at .59 g/gp, Point scored at .61 g/gp.
What did you think the math was showing?
Yeah I did…that .02 difference was overwhelming wasn’t it?
Just looking for clarification on what you were saying do the math to? You were talking about Horvat leading the playoffs in goals, then brought up both players goal totals. Doing the math didn’t prove him to lead anything, so what was the reason for doing the math?
They’re teaming a puck moving D with a 2 way D on every pairing.
Makes perfect sense and if a #4D is playing #5D, it’s a nice problem to have.
D looks strong, very shallow forward core (huge drop off from 2nd to 3rd line), goaltending is a question mark.
Thank you for posting this! The Nucks look worse on paper than my fantasy team I just drafted tonight….after a bottle of Glenfiddich (I did manage to snag Nuge in the 9th round though).
That line-up is honestly horrid. I now think Van ends up in the bottom 3 of the North. All your talk and bullshit this off-season had me second guessing myself about how good they might be this year. Then I saw this….hahahaha! They’re soooo bad.
And no…Hoglander being gifted a second line spot is not a testament to how good he is…it is a testament to how shallow your team’s depth and talent are.
We gifted rookies top-6 roles for a long time for this same reason…and became the laughing stock of the league.
Have fun tanking for the first overall by mid-February.
Per Reid Wilkins
Spectacular goal by 97 early in the second. Races around D to loose puck down right wing, cuts in, flicks it bar down past Koskinen. 2-1 White.
Ennis stickhandles through the D and scores. 3-1 White.
Includes a GoFundMe link:
https://regina.ctvnews.ca/sask-sports-personality-battles-covid-19-1.5259206
Tuukka Rask explains his reasons for leaving the bubble.
https://www.tsn.ca/boston-bruins-tuukka-rask-opens-up-about-leaving-nhl-s-return-to-play-1.1573465
Koekkoek-Bouchard pair sounds stronger than Russell-Barrie.
I am very excited for Bouchard. I anticipate he’s full time NHLer by season’s end and Barrie isn’t re-signed. I am often wrong!
One of Larsson or Barrie will probably be resigned and Grandpa Bouch will play the full 2021 – 2022 season.
I would expect you are probably right and, if Larsson has a season like 2017 (which we saw for 2 months in 2020), to me, he’s the guy if they can agree on a contract that is reasonable with respect to the declining role he will play on a 3 year deal.
A Barrie extension scares me with regard to future cap structuring.
If Larsson ends up getting an extension I don’t think you’ll like that one either.
I don’t know what’s wrong with Matt Blumel, he only had one goal today in the 4-1 win.
It was a heck of a goal mind you:
https://www.flashscore.ca/game/WQVPHskP/#video
Thanks for sharing.
Kubalik comes to mind as player making recent impact out of the Czech league.
Thank you OP for the continuing updates. Love the commercials – may have a Pilsner Urquell or two tonight. Good goal in tight.
He’s on an absolute tear lately.
And a lovely goal.
Is this scrimmage being streamed anywhere?
Couldn’t find anything on Sportsnet’s website.
Per Reid Wilkins
First period done. Tracked shots on goal, @JasonGregor. 11-8 Blue.
It hard to imagine any of Jones, Yamamoto, Bouchard, McLeod or Samorukov not having NHL careers of substance – I guess Sammy and McLeod aren’t as “certain” as the other but it would be surprise if they didn’t.
On the other end, at this point, its tough to imagine Marody having an NHL career – I blame, mainly, Kale Kessy, but also what seems to be an inability to acknowledge the deficiency in skating and commitment to improve (I could be wrong on that inability but that’s my sense).
Benson seems somewhere in the middle – I think he can make it.
The Jesse love is real and its spectacular:
Dustin Nielson
@nielsonTSN1260
· 9m
Puljujarvi puts the puck on net on a rush and Turris tips it home. Scrimmage tied at 1.
Per Dustin Nielsen
Puljujarvi puts the puck on net on a rush and Turris tips it home. Scrimmage tied at 1.
Really nice to see Kahun up on that 2nd line with Drai and Yamamoto today. I may have just been wrong thinking that the coaching staff might be planning on keeping Ennis there to start the year.
On the other hand, Ennis was not moved to the Turris/Puljujarvi line and its looking like 3LW is going to be Archie’s spot. I really don’t like him there on that line to tell you the truth – I’d be excited for that line with either Kahnun or Ennis there, much less so with Archie.
Like seeing the Rusty/Koekkoek switch today (with Barrie) – I see Rusty starting the season as 3LD but can see those two share duties through the year a bit.
Staples had a decent point talking recently with Bob that Archie could be a good fit on that line. Turris is the savvy vet, JP likes to lug the puck and Archie can be the defensive conscience and board battler.
Not my preferred alignment, but there is potential there.
I’d be more apt to try Neal with Turris-JP, or Ennis.
Ya, I guess, except I believe Archie’s defensive game may be a bit over-stated by Oilers fans.
I mean he was in the 26% goal share range away from McDavid last year – sure, lots of those minutes were with Sheahan and Khaira but he was part of that.
I’m not even sure he’s much of a board battler – don’t get me wrong, he’s tenacious and a great/aggressive hitter but I’m not sure he’s cast properly as a defensive conscious of a line and puck retriever.
I see him as more of a fourth line energy guy that could move up if needed – I don’t think its needed right now, even with Neal and Haas not available.
Yeah, he’s certainly miscast as a top-6 option. He’s a right-shot Caggiula who PKs.
But not a bad idea by Tippett to get him some reps with the third line so there’s some kind of baseline established.
Of course, Caggiula was noted for his less than great defensive play……
For me, to the extent Kahun stays at 2LW, Ennis is a no-brainer for 3LW over Archie.
If Archie is going to play his off-wing, the fourth line with Khaira (or Shore) and Chiasson makes much more sense to me.
Maybe I’m missing something – just my thoughts and, of course, coach knows best.
Glad you and you devices have sorted this out 🙂
Still agree with you about what the lines should be, though Tippett may well prove to be right.
Sara Civ (@SaraCivian) Tweeted:
The Canes have promoted Eric Tulsky and Darren Yorke to Assistant General Managers. More to come!
https://twitter.com/SaraCivian/status/1347559764771938304?s=20
Per Jack Micheals:
McDavid power play goal. 1-0
Video of the goal.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1347618795012071424
Per Jack Micheals:
Kahun moved onto line with Draisaitl & Yamamoto for today’s scrimmage.
We are already six (SIX!) days into training camp and there has been a serious lack of Death March™ postings.
Thus, I hereby demand that the interns release Hunter1909 from whatever bed they have him tied to. Toot sweet. Some things–not many I admit– but some things are more important than sex.
(I am also seriously jonesing for a New Improved Darkness post).
I’m still waiting for my prize from last season!
Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) Tweeted:
Six players on Dallas and two members of staff have tested positive for Covid-19.
Stars season is not expected to start until January 19 at the earliest, the NHL is in the process of revising their schedule.
#Stars
https://twitter.com/nhlupdate/status/1347602193965219840?s=20
I suspect we are going to see a lot of tweets like these this year….
Yes. Best non-bubble comparable would be MLB’s experiences. Football rosters are way too big to compare to.
Those cute cowgirls in skin tight Wranglers are awfully hard to resist as a young man.
CBJ Public Relations (@BlueJacketsPR) Tweeted:
CLUB STATEMENT:
The Columbus Blue Jackets have held a number of players out of today’s scheduled practice out of an abundance of caution and in accordance with NHL Covid-19 protocols.
https://twitter.com/BlueJacketsPR/status/1347573749709742080?s=20
Wheeler ranks the top 20 Calder candidates.
https://theathletic.com/2279235/2021/01/08/ranking-top-20-calder-candidates/?source=user_shared_article
Pronman’s annual ranking of the best 23 and under prospects.
https://theathletic.com/2277771/2021/01/08/ranking-nhl-stars-under-23-rasmus-dahlin-elias-pettersson-alexis-lafreniere/?source=user_shared_article
I’m always dumbfounded by his lists. Ranking Kotkaniemi as a top line forward and ranking Bouchard that low with “below-average” puck skills is crazy to me
I like Pronman’s look at prospects every year but there are mos def some players he’s got a blind spot for, either positive or negative. He’s never liked Bouchard.
Pronmon’s list is bonkers. Jack Hughes and Kakko ahead of Quinn Hughes, Makar and Heiskanen. Then he has Bouchard as below-average puck skills. Wheeler’s list has Bouchard as eventually running PP1.
Pronmon seems to make an initial evaluation and after that he is reluctant to look at actual results or reconsider that he might have not have it right,
I expect his ranking of those players is somewhat dependent on recent draft pedigree. He does explain he will need to re-examine those rankings once he gets a bigger sample size.
How much bigger sample size does one need on Heiskanen, Makar, and QHughes?
If one were starting a franchise, Heiskanen and Makar would be the first two guys gone. Quinn is better than his brother.
Puck skills entail much more than making stretch passes.
Of course. And I know Bouchard isn’t going to be dangling the puck, but when we are talking about puck skills for a dman, we should be talking about walking the line with the puck, keeping puck in, passing in o-zone, Getting puck to the net, and break out passes. All areas Bouchard is known for excelling
Perhaps one of the most important puck skills involves retrieving the puck in the defensive zone with urgency, evading the forecheck and moving the puck up ice.
As I recall, Bouchard has been docked for exactly this in the past.
Perhaps he has improved in this area while in Sweden and Pronman hasn’t se en it yet.
Bouchard is excellent at getting the puck moving in the right direction from the d-zone to o-zone. I’m not really sure why you are including ‘turning around, and racing the forechecker to the puck’ in puck skills.
You will have a chance to see what I’m talking about next week.
Watch Quinn Hughes quickly go back to his end, use his edges and agility to evade a forechecker and move the puck up ice.
Bouchard is an average skater at best and has been criticized in the past for deficiencies in that area.
Remains to be seen if he has improved in that area against the best forwards in the world.
Okay but there is a separate “ranking’ for skating. A lot of what you just said is skating. You even said “skater”. We are talking about puck skills. Pronman ranks Bouchards skating as below average and that’s fair, but by all accounts Bouchard has excellent puck skills, whereas Pronman rates it as below average
Puck retrieval is about both skating and puck skills.
You can’t make a play if the forechecker beats you to the puck and you have to have puck skills to evade the forecheck.
I really don’t see this as nearly as big an issue as you you like to make it. Defencemen play in pairs.
If you put him with a Huddy type who hangs back or even a Broberg who skates like the wind, for example, you totally mitigate any deficiencies on puck recovery – if, in fact, they do exist at this point.
There isn’t a player in the league that does everything equally well. If they did you really woudn’t need a bench coach. They’d just hop over the boards when it was their turn.
Having average skating and below par puck retrieval skills is a ticket to the bottom 4. Charlie Huddy has gone the way of host of one dimensional defenders.
The game has changed,
I wonder, is it possible for 20-21 year old players to improve with coaching, experience, development, work and commitment?
Camp talk is camp talk but improvements have been notable from various accounts.
I mean Juolevi and Nils H. are god-sends due to improvements shown in camp….
We’ll see. I gave up listening to so called experts opinions on prospects a long time ago. I’ll wait to see him in NHL games which I expect to see happen pretty quickly.
this comes from quinn’s penchant for the figure skates….and falls in line with yours for the barbie dolls
“An average skater” who was the best at skating backwards in his draft class among top OHL defense prospects.
Okay then.
Should have been in the running for the Calder LAST season if he’s a plus skater as you claim.
Hes not even in the conversation THIS season.
the comment literally right below this is your post on wheelers top 20 calder candidates. where Bouchard is listed lol
Why wasn’t Cale Makar in the conversation for the Calder in his 20-year old season?
Oh, right, he wasn’t in the NHL as the Avs decided he needed another year of development before they signed him and brought him in the league.
I agree with this premise, and to answer your question; Yes Bouchard has improved in this area and is demonstrating it in the abbreviated camp this year.
How can someone state “Ranking NHL stars under 23” when some of them on the list have yet to play in the NHL – list is of little value
Did Drai change teams for OT?
When the games go to OT Leo will play with Connor.
That’s probably why they switched for OT.
Its not about the scrimmages, it’s about getting ready for the season.
No, they were on the same team.
Oh?! Well that doesn’t seem fair.
They were on the same team in the name of PP practice (although there was only 1 power play yesterday).
Of note, both the Nurse/Bear and Jones/Larsson pairing were on the other team – in the name of them going up against the top lines.
I’m sure there is a material reason to everything Tip is deploying right now.
I don’t think there will be a major cut as there is bound to be some injuries. Even if it’s not during TC there will be a rash of injuries through the first two weeks of the season. They looked like they were going pretty slow in the scrimmage, when it ramps up on Wednesday night fully expect Charley horses and groin pulls galore.
Bundesliga reported an increase in injuries (no % given – just that it was higher) during their restart in the spring and attributed it to the longer than normal layoff. 62% were listed as muscular (sprains, strains etc). Oilers will need all the legit NHL players they can get.
Surprised the union didn’t ask for at least another week of training camp and a couple of exhibition games but it’s all about money usually is. I’m glad Holland went so deep he knows what’s coming. Turris is going to help Connor and especially Leon immensely we finally have a 3C that can play at level or even above his weight class.
Is it the union that pushes for exhibition games or the league??
In normal times, exhibition games are added revenue, hence why there are so many of them. Of course, with no gate (in most places), there is no revenue.
I think all parties would have preferred a couple of exhibition games to get ready but, at the same time, I believe the players were pushing for more regular season games and there is only so much time.
Not sure if this was mentioned yesterday in the comments but Tippett said in his presser that Neal was skating but Haas wasn’t and they weren’t expecting Haas anytime soon. Interesting because I had thought it was Haas that would be back soon and that Neal was more long term.
Too bad, Haas was my pick for opening night 4C.
The only thing keeping JJ even in the conversation for 4C is his excellent PK stats. Comparing Hass to JJ at 5v5 last year is alarming.
Hass: 514.4 TOI / -3 goal diff / 53.0 dZS% / Corsi (rel) = 0.1
JJ: 668.8 TOI / -20 goal diff / 61.2 dZS% / Corsi (rel) = -3.2
JJ got caved last year and must improve significantly to stay with the Oilers. 2019 – 2020 was Hass’s first year on NHL ice, so one could expect improvement. Also, how good is Hass at drawing penalties!
Could see them splitting the 4C duties with Hass in when speed is needed (Leafs) and JJ in when more toughness is required (Flames).
JJ was sub-replacement level last year. If Haas isn’t ready to go, it gives an opportunity for Shore.
I love JJ – always have. However, it is pretty clear he is way too slow to be a C in the NHL. He can take draws on the PK.
If he is going to have any role in the NHL, I think it will have to be as a 4th line LW / PK guy.
Nothing wrong with that – home grown, developed role player.
Some games, it seems, JJ skates a lot better than others..
Yeah, I don’t see skating as a deficiency for JJ. More like engagement and consistency.
Your are right, JJ got caved last year but I would suggest that didn’t happen once he was moved to the middle – the Neal/Khaira/Chiasson line did well down the stretch (I think it was 4 games) and also in the play-in.
The player helps the team – if that player shows up nightly.
I think Tip said that neither were expected back any time soon (although previous intel on Neal was that, while he’s unlikely to be ready for opening night, its not thought to be long-term).
The Haas thing, if its for term, my get Shore a contract but we’ll see.
As far as opening night 4C, I’d be surprised if this isn’t Khaira – Tip has talked about how well he played at center down the stretch last year and in the play-in and I do agree with Tip. Khaira showed much better as a center last year.
His level of play at evens in aggregate last year was not good enough but his level of play as a center plus his PK was definitely good enough and that player makes the team better.
Can he be that player consistently? Probably not given inconsistency through his pro career but I think he’ll get the chance to show he can.
The good in his 1:35 PK TOI/game was more than offset in his 10:50 EV TOI/game. Does he do so well in 10% of his TOI to cover the bad over the other 90%? I’d accept a drop in that 10% by another player to improve the other 90%.
Using Elgin’s comparison above, the improvement by Haas in 90% outweighs the dropoff in the 10%, and it’s not even close.
Of course the main substance of the post you are responding to is about the uptick in Khaira’s game when moved to center – both in March and then again in August – shown in the eye test, in the numbers and in the views of the coach who keeps mentioning it.
The 8 game sample? That overrides the rest of his career?
Nobody said that.
Not sure why acknowledging that he was materially better when played at center is controversial.
That part isn’t controversial. Where did I say anything close to disagreeing he played better at center?
My original response was in regards to him playing center and PK making the team better. His 8 game sample at center doesn’t change the fact he’s been terrible 5vs5, and his PK ability doesn’t even that out.
If he is not terrible at 5 on 5 as a center, it does change that.
Miles to go. Solid early arrows from last year and, from the coach, continuing in camp this year.
Where did I disagree that he played better at center?
Not sure why thinking a player’s PK ability doesn’t outweigh terrible 5vs5 play is controversial.
This is a good way to look at things.
We can plug in the GF/GA numbers and minutes and see what Khaira cost, and saved, the team in his 5v5 and PK minutes.
If you take the Oilers season performance without Khaira on the ice and plug in his minutes, he was -19 goals vs what the rest of the team did in a 671 minute sample.
If you do the same with his 97.5 PK minutes you could say he saved the team 6.5 goals.
So he was a net -12 or -13.
There are a bunch of caveats obviously.
This is comparing Khaira at 5v5 to McDavid and Draisaitl, which isn’t really fair. Also to Haas, but I’m pretty skeptical Haas would reprise his -3 in a do-over.
Khaira also won’t repeat those PK results. He’s legitimately good, and had quality numbers over 3 years, but not THAT good.
Likewise, he hasn’t been good at 5v5 in other years, but he hasn’t been as bad as last season.
Khaira also doesn’t 100% “own” his on ice results. I think it’s fair to say the 5v5 line he played on did him no favors and dragged down his results.
I’m happy enough to give Khaira another go at 4C with different linemates, and if nothing else quantifying his PK vs 5v5 contributions like this narrows the gap between him and Haas.
Maybe I set my expectations of Khaira too high. When you “see him good”, I’ll take that Khaira as 4C any day of the week and twice on playoff game day. Unfortunately, that Khaira only shows up once in a blue moon the last couple years. His PK abilities don’t offset the drag on 5vs5 play. I’ll take a drop on the PK to improve 5vs5. More time played 5vs5 than on PK.
Yeah, hopefully we see more of the ‘good’ Khaira this season. I’m at least somewhat optimistic he can do it, with different (better?) linemates and easier minutes. If not there’s multiple players in line to take his job (thank you Ken Holland!).
If he only has 10 games of “good” Khaira, it better be every Flames game. Maybe that’s my biggest disappointment with him. During the games against the Flames where he could’ve made a statement and stood out, he was invisible in those games you would think were made for him.
Apparently Ray Ferraro on the Ray & Dregs podcast notes that Broberg was playing with a severe charley horse and near if not separated shoulder. Vindication for (almost) all of us who could clearly see the limitations to Bro’s game during the wjc. Hope he is well rested before resuming SHL play.
Any word yet on Holloway’s wrist?
Curious about this as well, will be interesting to see how quickly he returns to playing for Wisconsin.
They play Sat/Sun this weekend and, trust me, I’ve been very interested to see if he’s going to be in the lineup. Aside from the potential injury, I don’t know what the NCAA/Colorado protocols are coming from Canada.
We’ll know tomorrow at the latest.
A charley horse was my guess as well, makes sense as an injury that doesn’t cause any long term concern so you can play but if it’s severe it’s a real bitch to play through and will really hamper your movement and ability to fully focus so you really shouldn’t. And as long as you keep aggrevating it, for example by playing a contact sport like oh I don’t know say hockey, it won’t really heal.
I think the shoulder injury happened on that play behind the offensive net when he got hit, I think it was against Russia, and was directly correlated to the fact he wasn’t a 100% and couldn’t move as he’s used to. Which is exactly what I mentioned in my rant the other week. Stupid medical team, terrible leadership from the coaches.
Sub-luxuating ones shoulder rarely cause any longterm damage as long as you make sure to strengthen it, I’ve done it a couple of times and for me it ended up being beneficial because it made me focus on my crappy shoulders in my training. Hopefully it’s just a one off for Broberg, it could’ve ended so much worse.
Young Oilers Have such good luck with shoulder injuries
~ If he’s near to having a separated shoulder he must be near to a roster spot ~
Welcome to the Oilers – you can head to the second door to the left for your complimentary shoulder surgeries. Robyn Regehr will be overseeing the process because of his extensive experience.
It was pretty clear that he was playing hurt, with what and “how hurt” was the question – Rishaug had been speculating on Charley Horse for a while.