The McDavid Speedway

by Lowetide

Remember at the beginning of the week, when I said “Oilers fans don’t hate Winnipeg, but they will by the end of the season”? Remember that? I think we can move up ‘by the end of the season’ to making things official as of this morning. This is going to be a fantastic matchup during the regular season and hopefully the two teams see each other in the playoffs. The hockey was fast and furious last night. Music! More please.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS AFTER 18 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 6-12-0, 12 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 9-8-1, 19 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 7-9-2, 16 points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 9-8-1, 19 points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 11-5-2, 24 points; goal differential +8
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 10-8-0, 20 points; goal differential +3

The team’s record reflects the McDavid Oilers in three of the previous five seasons, and I do think the team will be tighter defensively in the second 20 game segment of this season. Can they get the five on five scoring at something close to par? As of tonight, it’s 40-41 ladies.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Ottawa (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Ottawa, Ottawa, Montreal (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Toronto (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
  • Current results: 5-2-0, 10 points in 7 games

Edmonton is ahead of my projection at this time. If the club followed my predicted path from here to March 1, the record for February will be 8-4-0, 16 points in 12 games. The record for the season would be 13-10-0, 26 points in 23 games. That’s probably a playoff trajectory.

LINES, LAST NIGHT

  • Ennis-Draisaitl-Yamamoto played 9:09, 3-6 shots, 1-0 goals, 0-2 HDSC and 5-13 Corsi five on five. Ennis picked up an assist on the first Draisaitl goal, sending a quality pass to the breaking giant. He also took a monster hit from Pionk and used his speed effectively. Draisaitl scored twice, both exceptional goals, the man is incredible. Five shots, 2-2 TK-GV, 65 on the dot. Yamamoto had one of his patented games, an absolute demon on the forecheck, he almost scored a shortie because he anticipates so well, and is lightning fast.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi played 8:09, 5-3 shots, 1-0 goals, 1-0 HDSC and 9-6 Corsi five on five. This line finally has the shot differential figured out and the goals are beginning to come. Regression you are wildly frustrating but welcome always. Nuge had two assists, five shots on goal, and took a worthwhile penalty on a semi-breakaway (slash). Puljujarvi’s goal was his usual bullet train to the center of the city and then unleashing a howitzer. I genuinely believe that play works because the goalie is not certain JP can stop the train on time. Also, check out the world class stick lift by Nuge so Puljujarvi can drive unencumbered to the net. Fantastic!
  • Kahun-Khaira-Archibald played 6:57, 0-3 shots, no goals, 1-6 Corsi five on five. Low event line for the most part, Archibald somehow got a 10-minute misconduct (the referees were garbage), Kahun had one solid chance but hit the crest (he was too close to the net to do anything else). Khaira skated well and was effective, but he failed to get the puck out late and it was a big damn deal until it wasn’t. Also got high sticked, no call.
  • Turris-Haas-Chiasson played 3:43, 0-1 shots, no goals or high danger, 0-5 Corsi five on five. Turris was quiet, Haas was a race car and Chiasson’s stick committed suicide instead of giving the poor guy a deserved power-play goal. That’s some mean wood.

PAIRS AND GOALIES

  • Nurse-Barrie played 14:22, going 4-12 shots, 1-0 goals, 1-3 HDSC and 10-19 Corsi five on five. Played well against the Scheifele line (4-5 shots, 1-0 goals) but had a helluva time with Ehlers (1-8) and his trio. Copp, I believe, played on both lines. I know. Weird. Nurse took two high-sticking penalties without actually high sticking anyone (it was nuts). Barrie had three giveaways, skated miles but the usual success eluded him. I still think he’s a little wooden as PP quarterback.
  • Russell-Larsson played 11:42, going 3-3 shots, 1-0 goals, 0-1 HDSC, and 6-9 Corsi five on five. Russell picked up an assist on the first Draisaitl goal, took a penalty on a love tap, and blocked two shots. Larsson was unleashed as the game wound down, it was like watching Stampede Wrestling all over again. Lordy. Had a giveaway and blocked five shots. He did screen and then tip Scheifele’s first goal.
  • Koskkoek-Bouchard played 5:43, 4-2 shots, no goals and no HDSC, 6-6 Corsi five on five. Bouchard had a quiet night beyond three giveaways, I think they should have given him more time.
  • The PK culprits (one SH goal) were Larsson, Russell, Nuge and Khaira.
  • Mike Smith stopped 33 of 35, .943. He is .938 for the season. All numbers via Natural Stat Trick.

THE MCDAVID SPEEDWAY

Connor McDavid is one of the seven wonders of the world. His five on five points per 60 has ranged between 2.73 (rookie season) and 3.17 (2017-18) over his six NHL seasons. His current number (2.85) would be the third best of his career if he finishes the season there.

His on ice possession and goal numbers are up handsomely this season after a couple of years of wobble (NST). An amazing player, we’re lucky to witness his skill and hopefully we can do it live and in person soon.

There are numbers showing up across his game that suggest this may be his greatest season. Don’t sleep on it. Enjoy it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10, TSN1260, we’ll spend a bunch of time on last night’s game, including the entire segment at 10:20. Laura Armstrong from the Toronto Star will talk Blue Jays at 10:40, will we see baseball in Toronto this season? At 11, Frank Seravalli will discuss McDavid’s accomplishment last night and the trade deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Bulging Twine

Games that matter is what Sport is built upon

Games that matter is what makes Sport all it can be

jp

Are you talking about the Leafs v. Sens?

Bulging Twine

Especially

Many Soccer leagues have a way of making bottom of the table games matter, relegation.
Games that matter is what Sport is all about

pts2pndr

Rather than relegation we have draft lottery. We also continued with a revenue compensation plan that was instituted because of the currency inequity when it now should be stopped. This artificially supports teams that otherwise would fold do to lack of attendance/fan base on the hope to build the game in non hockey markets. This is done in the hope to get a TV contract similar to what baseball, football and basketball have. To date there are more than a few American based teams that are carried on the shoulders of the league to the detriment of the other franchises. Rather than expand the NHL in my opinion should have transferred a current team that is an non viable market.

Bank Shot

I heard Calle Jarnkrok may be on the trading block. There’s the third line center. One more year after this one at $2.5.

Last edited 12 days ago by Bank Shot
Tarkus

And has ties to Holland, having started his career in Motown.

According to Jarnkrok’s Wikipedia article, he is a first cousin of Elias Lindholm. Would add a little more intrigue to the BOA!

JimmyV1965

Some speculation out there that the Pens and Avs are interested in Gibson. If the Ducks are foolish enough to trade this guy, Holland should move heaven and earth to get him here. I would gladly give up two firsts and Broberg to make it happen. Not only is he one of the best goalies in the league, he might have one of the best contracts too.  

OriginalPouzar

Holland’s premise is that there isn’t that much separation between good and great goalies and I can’t imagine him paying anything close to that acquisition cost.

Oilers would also have to dispose of apx $6M in cap to make it work for this season.

JimmyV1965

Koskinnen and Chiasson would do it.

OriginalPouzar

Two contracts that teams are not taking – well, I guess the Ducks might take them but it would add to the actual acquisition cost as those contracts have negative value.

Munny

No doubt a phone call would have to be made. Especially at that salary. Lol… I wouldn’t open the bidding there though

Munny

I won’t be able to catch it but Vasby is playing tomorrow at 11 am.

(I’ve really been hoping to see a game too)

Last edited 12 days ago by Munny
maudite

Where would I go to try and suss out how the capitals pairing of Schultz and chara are looking with and without each other?

Redbird62

naturalstattrick.com allows you do look at them with and without each other. Under the players drop down on the menu, select line tool. Then choose the Capitals and submit. Once it comes up, you can then choose Capital players to pair together (or lines).

Last edited 12 days ago by Redbird62
maudite

Cheers!

Pescador

Please repot back, if you find anything interesting

maudite

Too small a sample size just yet (under 100 mins together)

But early results look like they are killing it.

Munny

I don’t believe it has worked for a few weeks now. Or at least it doesn’t on my browser. I miss it.

Redbird62

Working fine for me with Chrome. What browser are you using?

Munny

Firefox

Munny

Oh I think I know what it is…

Edit: Lol, yup, I’m an idiot. Should’ve realized it was my own damn settings, didn’t even think of it till you said it was working for you. The game data has been down a few times… thought the site might be having problems.

Last edited 12 days ago by Munny
Kinger_Oil.redux

– I know it’s verboten in these parts but I’d be fine if instead of Nuge they spent the money on a player who will get better over the course of the next contract. Nuge is great but your buying peak Nuge. Get a 23 year old winger with scoring history and upside. Be it just a signing or a trade salary dump thing. Heretic, blasphemy Kinger I know.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Not blasphemy, just sound asset management.

Issue is, teams don’t just trade productive RFA players because they’re cheap and under team control.

More likely is signing someone of a similar age that would fit a different need.

What about Landeskog*?

*not advocating, just positing a potential lateral move with upside.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– yeah like move heaven and earth for the next disgruntled Laine type thing if that means Nuge Isn’t on team next year however you need to set it up in terms of sign and trade, using his cap room instead etc.

Bryan

The Oilers have young players like Holloway and Savoie and Broberg coming who will be cheap and improve over the next five years. Trading Nuge now on an expiring contract would be a step back talent wise and morale wise for the team. With McDavid and Draisaitl at the height of their powers Holland needs to be adding not subtracting. I think it will get done.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– he’s clearly not getting traded this year. A few months of Nuge gets you nothing in return. Not sure how you made that conclusion from my musings. I’m just saying I’d rather another guy at same or less than what Nige is going to cost and his term, all deserved, that is younger and more upside.

pts2pndr

What you are suggesting may end up happening. My concern is the team would be back to dealing with unknowns. If Turris is an indication of our pro scouts competence we could end up worse for the experience. Nuge is a productive known part of the team that plays an important role in both the power play and penalty kill and is top six player. It could be argued that he is more valuable to the Oilers than all players on the team not called Connor, Leon or Darnel. Given the economic times and the flat cap it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

kgo

Instead of “the next disgruntled Laine” why not go after actual Laine to replace Nuge.

OriginalPouzar

Tip spoke after practice today (before they flew to Calgary) but no questions or intel on Bear (or any other lineup/deployment) matters.

McSorley33

Sorry, if you have answered this a million times…..is it a face injury or head injury for Bear?

Hoping it is not a concussion…

Yeti

I’m afraid that it is indeed a concussion 🙁

McSorley33

Damn.

Thanks

Klima's_Bucket

Has no-one mentioned how deep in his net Tippett’s Toy™ was on the Pionk goal?
Are we not allowed to call him out here?

greenshifter

Absolutely. If you look at 7of the 8 goals allowed in the last 2 games, both Koskinen and Smith are playing way too deep in the net. On Pionks goal there is no reason Smith should be that deep. There is no back door pass available. And if he doesn’t know that Pionk is going to take a shot there, then that’s a bigger problem imo.

Koskinen might be the worse goalie I’ve seen at playing shots from the point. You have to get as close to the possible deflection as you can, give it a chance to hit you.

Both of them, always, give the shooters way too much room.

dustrock

One wonders why we continue to employ our goalie coach

Reja

He’s invincible.

jp

One wonders why we continue to employ our goalie coach

That Ian Clark guy is looking like he should be available soon. I hear he’s some sort of whisperer.

McSorley33

I did.

Smitty sits on his own goal line.

Klima's_Bucket

If only he’d sit on his goal line instead of causing heart attacks by wandering out and about playing the puck.

Munny

Lol… He was so screened he never even saw Pionk take a backswing and you’re wondering why he didn’t challenge the shooter?

McSorley33

Pouzar with a cool stat on Taylor Hall.

I see your Taylor Hall and raise you one Jeff Skinner.

12 Games played…..drum roll…….1 lonely assist

Folks, this guy is only in year 2 of an 8 year deal worth **9 million*** per year AAV

Thanks for coming Jeff

Pouzar

Did you see my Ryan Johansen??? 0 pts for $8 mil? 🙂

You still win though…that is bad.

Durag

No one tell Nuge’s agent about these contracts!!

McSorley33

:*)

Dac189

Skinner career
0.64 points per game
-119 plus minus

I’m actually curious how he managed to pull off 9m x 8y, full NMC.

By comparison Nuge career is
0.74 points per game
-43 plus minus

€√¥£€^$

He scored 40 goals in his first season with Buffalo….players get paid when they score goals in the NHL.

Alpine

Was a little surprised by how poor Koekkoek’s been at 5v5. Getting killed in shot/chance/goal share. I know Tippett likes him on the PK, but I wonder why he even plays him at all 5v5 when he could dress 7 D and give Jones those non- PK minutes.

I know people are tired of hearing about Jones, but how does Koekkoek keep getting a pass for bad play? He is giving up way more than any of our defensemen.

Pescador

Kook looks terrible with the eye test too.
I’m sick of hearing about Jones, but far from sick of talking about how he should be playing.
Wtf Tippett, play the man!

Munny

That’s also why he’s only playing 5-6 minutes a night.

OriginalPouzar

Koekkoek is not very good and he’s a 6/7 guy for sure.

Tip really only has him in there for the PK and he is almost always a distant last in 5 on 5 ice for d-men.

7D/11F is simply not sustainable. It can be done every once in a while but it puts too much stress on the top-end forwards who already play too much. Coming off the 3-day break, the Oilers have 4 in 6 nights – they need 12 forwards playing. Cumulative fatigue is real.

Lets not forget last December.

Jiminey

Not sure if it has been said, but have to throw it out there… Smith’s Mask was AWESOME! Two thumbs up to whoever came up with that design!

Bryan

I was listening to the Frank Servalli interview on Lowdown and am a bit curious about why he thinks Montreal and Toronto are in their own class in the Canadian division. I haven’t seen anything to warrant any great separation between them and Winnipeg and the Oilers.

If anything I would say the Jets look the most formidable, especially when Dubois gets settled in and if Hellybuck heats up. We will see with the double header against Calgary if the Oilers can get a leg up on them at least.

Last edited 12 days ago by Bryan
wolf8888

It’s not surprising. I have found him to be fairly biased towards Leafs especially for some time.

dustrock

Bryan, you need to get out a map once in a while. Toronto and Montreal are east of Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg.

fishman

Oh yea and have you heard that it is a toss up between Mathews and McDavid who is currently the best player???? (and sentiment leaning to Mathews! That is eastern sentiment!)

Bryan

Leaf fans certainly try to spin that narrative no matter how ridiculous it makes them look. I find Friedman paints a much more balanced picture on the media side than Servalli.

OriginalPouzar

To be fair, Toronto has indeed separated itself – 0.765 P% and plus 15.

The standings, via both P% and goal differential, do really indicate three tiers.

Its tough to disagree with Frank based off those factors.

Of course, MTL’s numbers are based off of a hot start (but so were the Oilers last year as well).

Harpers Hair

You picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue.

Matthews is having a season for the ages.

He currently has 16 goals part way through his 17th game…and he’s doing almost all of his scoring at even strength.

He’s on pace to score 50 goals in only 56 games and his two way play is stellar.

Some analysts I’ve heard…and they’re not all from Toronto…have him as a favourite for the Richard, Art Ross and Selke trophies.

Side

Case closed. If SOME analysts who are not ALL from Toronto said so, then it’s settled.

How long has your glue sniffing run gone on for? 30+ years and counting?

pts2pndr

He’s actually very smart and has two brains, unfortunately for us, one brain is lost and the other brain is out looking for it.😉

OriginalPouzar

Matthews is a stud and should be in the conversation for the likes of the Hart.

At the same time, he still remains behind Drai in total points (and well behind McDavid in total points) and isn’t in the same tier as Drai in GA/60 (if we are talking about 2-way play and defensive contributions). Drai it 1.3 GA/60 as opposed to Matthews being well over 2 (I think around 2.13).

Not to mention, while Drai isn’t a part of the regular PK, that is a function of ice time as he is very good at it and averages just under 1 min per game. Matthews doesn’t PK at all. Drai is also the team’s primary faceoff man – taking the important defensive zone draws, etc. I believe he’s apx 57% on the season.

Harpers Hair

At 5V5…the most important game state…things look a little different.

Points:

Matthews 18 (in one less game)
Draisaitl 16

CF%

Matthews 51.69%
Draisaitl 47.67%

FF%

Matthews 51.93%
Draisaitl 49.62%

xGF%

Matthews 54.95%
Draisaitl 47.70%

HDCF%

Matthews 58.26%
Draisaitl 45.05%

And here we see that Draisaitl is on an absolute heater when it comes to an unsustainable save percentage when he is on the ice.

On Ice SV%

Matthews 91.11
Draisaitl 95.83

Considering the weakness of the Oilers goaltending overall, you have to know that will drop as the season goes along.

Both Draisaitl (and McDavid) continue to feast on the PP but are shy at evens.

That will win you scoring championships and some trophies but it is not nearly as important in winning hockey games.

That’s exactly why the Leafs are in a tier above.

GMB3

Interesting how you point out Draisaitl being due for some negative regression but not that McDavid being “shy at evens” is a result of poor puck luck. His underlying numbers are sterling and as of right now he’s a no brainer choice for the Hart. His defensive impacts per EW are significantly above replacement, Matthew’s is a shade worse. I believe even Draisaitls defensive impacts look better.

I for one am not at all surprised his xgf%, xcf%, etc, looks better than Draisaitls. Drai’s been carrying an inconsistent Yamamoto and the corpse of Dominik Kahun all season. Matthew’s has a guy who could be argued as a top ten winger in the game on his line. And also plays on a much deeper/stronger team.

GMB3

you may be a troll, but you’re not stupid. Saying shit like “that will win you scoring championships, but it’s not nearly as important in regards to winning hockey games” sure makes you sound like an idiot though.

GMB3

Hell, if Matthew’s keeps scoring on 23% of his shots on even strength, maybe he wins the Art Ross, but I wouldn’t bet the rent on that. It was a cute narrative though, was expecting a bit better tho tbh

Harpers Hair

Matthews shooting percentage is just a hair above Draisaitl’s.

What is different, as I pointed out above is that Draisaitl is getting an other worldly on ice save percentage while Matthews is getting average at best goaltending when is on the ice.

I’d bet the rent that Draisaitl’s .958 regresses sooner and much further than Matthews shooting percentage.

Side

Who cares what you would bet? You don’t pay up your bets when you lose anyway. Lol

OriginalPouzar

The argument for Matthews and the Hart is that he’s such a good two-way and all around player now.

Matthews has less points than Drai

Matthews does not penalty kill – Drai does.

Matthews is almost a full goal against per 60 more than Drai.

Drai is every bit as good a 2-way player as Matthews.

Drai also isn’t running a shooting percentage 7% higher at evens than he had last year and 9% higher than he had the year before. Interesting that was left out given how often shooting percentage regression is used against Oilers.

Harpers Hair

OP did not begin the discussion with McDavid…he used Draisaitl as a comparable so that’s what I responded to.

OriginalPouzar

Drai has been a better offensive player and a better all-around player.

He’s also playing at evens with “not a top 6 player – Kahun” and Yamamoto, not Mitch Marner.

jp

He’s also playing at evens with “not a top 6 player – Kahun” and Yamamoto, not Mitch Marner.

I think Mitch Marner is going to win the Hart, Art Ross and Selke. And he PKs too. Are we sure Matthews is the driver?

Last edited 12 days ago by jp
GMB3

Right, yet you used Matthew’s production at evens in contrast to McDavid/Draisaitl as proof of why the leafs are in a tier of their own. Anyone with half a brain who would care to take a gander at his career rates would understand it’s been bolstered by an unsustainably high shooting percentage and on ice shooting percentage.

McDavid has a significantly lower xga%. If either of them should win the Selke, it should be him.

Just another Mark Spector-esque brain dead take on why the Oilers aren’t cup contenders.

Bank Shot

Blah Blah blah. Your shtick is so boring.

JimmyV1965

The Leafs will regress. Book it. They have 13 wins and nine of them are by one goal, or two goals with an empty netter.  Their +19 goal differential largely comes from a three-game set against the Canucks where they were +10. Like virtually every other team in the North, they have two lines and a bunch of meh. Their defence is just as mediocre as the rest of the division. They might win the division, but their record will even out. There’s nothing that makes them any better than the Oil, Jets, Flames or Habs. 

Cassandra

If Tippett isn’t going to play Jones on the PK (and he clearly isn’t, only six minutes all of last season), what role does Jones have on this team?

It is pretty hard to be an NHL regular D while playing no time on either special team. I checked last year and the list of NHL D who played more than half the games but barely ever played the PK or PP is:

Oliver Kylington
Markus Nutivaara
Ilya Lybushkin

This player type basically doesn’t exist. If the coach won’t use him on the PK then Jones can’t play in the NHL. It is really that simple.

I think Jones can do it, but I’m not the coach, and the evidence is that this coach has made up his mind on this player.

It takes a special kind of mind to take one injury and turn it into two, but unfortunately Jones is done with the Oilers.

wolf8888

What evidence? This is like the story that the coach had no use for Bouchard because he didn’t play in the first 10(ish) games. Players don’t come into the NHL perfectly formed. It’s entirely possible that Jones is learning to PK and will be a much more well rounded player when he does get in.

€√¥£€^$

I completely disagree. As fans we tend to be extremely impatient. It is a process and it is politics. Shit happens, injuries happen, stars align and opportunity comes along.

Success is where preparation and opportunity meet. Often in sports it doesn’t happen right away.

Jones will get his chance, but it is up to him to make the most of it. And he will, but it will obviously take longer than some of think. It is up to him to seize the moment and change his coach’s mind, such is life….

OriginalPouzar

This sounds similar to the Bouchard posts from 2 weeks ago (or so) stating that the coach has made up his mind and not really given any value to context and circumstances.

Jones will indeed get back in the lineup and will indeed get some at bats on the PK but Tip, at this point, doesn’t want to rely on him as one of the 4 main PK d-men in a game.

Jones will get in a game with 4 other PK d-men and, when one of them is in the box, he’ll get a PK shot and, presumably, not make the same mistakes (plural) that he made previously and then get more opportunities, etc.

I’m fairly confident Tip would like to play Jones over Rusty and Koekkoek – he knows what Jones can do to help at evens.

Come on Ethan.

Munny

Bingo. Such a good post.

Yeti

Before the game I wasn’t convinced by Ennis’ promotion to the top two lines. I was wrong, he did well. I’d still prefer to have him on the third line, but credit where it’s due.

OriginalPouzar

I agree and will eat a little crow as well.

With that said, the 3rd line with Kahun was definitely not as effective as the last number of games with Ennis and that matters. At the same time, the bottom 6 really didn’t play much at evens given all the special teams and they never got in a decent “line rolling” rhythm. Tough to asses that line with Kahun.

Munny

Bear did not make the optional skate this morning.

I wonder if that means they’ve reset his protocol back to the first stage.

Tipp did call it a “setback” yesterday.

OriginalPouzar

Thanks for this – couldn’t find any info on the skate this morning (and Tip didn’t provide any in his avail).

That’s not good news for the Oilers (or for Caleb Jones).

Munny

Leon Draisaitl recorded his 450th career point last night.

Last edited 12 days ago by Munny
Elgin R

As always, big shoutout to the Buffalo Sabres for taking Reinhart and the Oilers for not selecting Bennet.

Second most games played in his draft class, only player over a point a game and the only one with a Hart, Lindsay and Art Ross. How good is you’re teammate when you get to 450 pts in 440 games and it hardly gets any mention?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

It seemed that lack of recognition was lurking behind the surface after being asked a bunch about 97s 500 points in 369 games.

Considering Leon’s slow start in his rookie year, being over 1p/gm is all the more impressive.

OriginalPouzar

I think Reinhart was almost universally rated ahead of Drai, wasn’t he?

On the other hand, Drai/Bennett was a legit decision – I think more legit boards had Bennett ahead (I think).

Great pick for sure.

His 450 in 440 would look even better if he wasn’t kept in the lineup for 37 games as an 18 year old (9 points in 37 games).

Bank Shot

Bennett was ranked number one by NHL central scouting. Reinhart at 3.
Mckenzie had Reinhart at 2 and Bennett at 3.

None of the services had Draisaitl better than 4th. Bennett was universally ahead of Draisaitl.

Ice Sage

McDavid has made Drai better, in so many ways. Generationals do that.
Am not sure Bennet or Reinhart would approximate Drai’s record but they’d be better players as Oilers than where they are now.
Best player in the draft, needs to be said sometimes with all the misses in the Oiler draft record (not best value – that’d be Paternak, another player who landed in a great milieu)

OriginalPouzar

Won’t disagree.

I would also suggest that Drai has made McDavid better as well.

jp

I would also suggest that Drai has made McDavid better as well.

There’s no damn question they’ve made each other better (on both sides).

And on Draisaitl, it’s not even close at the top of that draft. You can argue Ekblad, but Draisaitl is a full 170 points ahead of everyone in that draft save Pastrnak (picked 22nd; Drai 61 points up).

Big hat tip to MacT for Leon.

Last edited 12 days ago by jp
Redbird62

To those watching the Condors games, are either of or both of Lennstrom or Niemelainen looking like they could soon provide any depth cover on the left side, so that the Oilers could risk putting Koekkoek on waivers if they needed to when all the D is healthy?

Last edited 12 days ago by Redbird62
€√¥£€^$

I’ve watched a bit. Niemelainen is closer than Lennstrom, a better defender. He probably could fill in, in a punch, he has all the tools and ability. Is a better skater than Willy and possibly even a better puck mover.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve watched quite a bit of the Condors (had it on last night but was focussed on the Oilers’ game, obviously).

Lennstrom was fantastic during the first weekend and has been good, not great since. He really does have a nice offensive skill-set and is a very good skater – he’s quick and thinks the game well offensively. Given he’s on North American ice for the first time, with the rest of the season in the Bake, I think he’ll be in the conversation in September.

Nielmelainen has been a revelation. He was drafted out of Saginaw in the 3rd round as a “2-way” d-man but struggled in his draft plus 1 in the OHL and, since he’s been in Europe, reports are of a solely defensive d-man who can skate but has poor puck skills.

He has been a revelation to my eye in Bakersfield – he can indeed skate very well and, with his size, he coves a lot of ground out there (think Puljujarvi in that regard). What he has shown in his 5 games is that he is not a black hole at all with the puck – he’s OK in transition but seems to have a decent half-zone offensive game. Good at getting pucks to the net and makes simple and swift plays in the offensive zone.

I don’t know how close he is but, to me, he’s moved up a tier from “distant bell”.

I think his game is suited to the North American ice and style of play.

Redbird62

Thanks to both of you. It’s a complex algorithm teams have to figure out. If once Bear gets healthy, Jones get a chance to prove himself and is moderately successful, would the Oilers be more concerned that they would lose KoekKoek on waivers and down the road may have to use one of these guys in a pinch, or that Smith or Koskinen gets hurt/sick and they would have to use Skinner again or Wells. So far the Oilers not losing any defenseman on waivers seems to have been slightly more important than losing Forsberg, though we’ll never know if a) Lagesson would have been claimed or b) if having Forsberg available would have changed how the goaltending went during Smith’s absence.

OriginalPouzar

I think Lagesson probably would have cleared given Kylington clear – you never know though and Holland likely has a better pulse on that than anyone. What we do know is that the org was right to value Lagesson (whether the decision not to waive was “right” or not).

Lets not forget, Corey Crawford and his, out of nowhere, retirement is what caused all these problems.

At some point, they are going to have to waive Koekkoek – keeping 9D on the active roster in perpetuity isn’t a very good option. Perhaps when Bear is back and he can be relied on for some PK minutes.

Koekkoek may get claimed with his nominal salary – then again, he signed that at the very end of the off-season so its not like he was in great demand.

Munny

I think I’d like to know how the playoff rosters are going to work this year before coming up with a plan. And then there’s the guys in Europe too. Jesus, I hope Holly’s on it better than I am lol.

I think you have formulated a good hypothesis… that part of the reason for putting Forsberg on waivers was because he wasn’t going to get a solitary minute between the pipes, regardless.

OriginalPouzar

Per Gord Miller:

Most penalties drawn this season:
1. Brady Tkachuk (OTT) 18
2. Connor McDavid (EDM) 13
3. Elias Pettersson (VAN) 11
4. Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) 11

Of course, we all think he should be #1 but this is FAR better than its been the past few years.

dustrock

Ha ha ha the Tkachuks, of course.

godot10

No American officials and Canadian teams are only playing each other.

Elgin R

2021 Season: Penalties Taken / PIMS
McDavid: 2 / 4
EP40: 3 / 6
Turtle: 3 / 6
Brady: 4 / 14

Brady gives most of his back trying to get his team going – good player.

Turtle (6-2 / 202) is waiting for the Oilers this weekend. He won’t fight Nurse or Khaira as they are too big, but may challenge RNH to try to extract some revenge for the beatdown of Monny last year.

GMB3

hopefully regression doesn’t come for Leon Draisaitl at the same time it comes for McDavid and his linemates. His underlying numbers are harrowing.

Elgin R

Leon’s 5v5 SH% this year is 7.32. His career average is over 15% so I hope his SH% does regress to HIS average.

GMB3

what? His 5v5 shooting percentage is 19%. Not sure where you’re getting those numbers from, but NST has him at 19%, above his career average, and with significantly less shots/60. His ixG/60 are down as well. xG% around 47%, PDO 1.08.

your post was a nice sentiment but not grounded in any reality, unless I’m looking at something wrong.

Munny

Up till last game my working theory was that Draisaitl had chosen to be a pass-first player this season. He has been uncharacteristically foregoing opportunities to dish to linemates in poorer positions.

That might also explain his higher shooting percentage, if he’s only really shooting on looks he can’t pass up.

He was really pissing me off in the first couple of weeks of the season.

OriginalPouzar

Drai went from an ineffective/low energy type performance on Monday to an absolute beast below the hashmarks in the defensive zone last night – he was massive defensively.

I’m starting to really like these give and go goals between Jesse and McDavid – way to shoot that gap Jesse. This looks good.

I didn’t really notice much positive from the bottom 6 – special teams played a massive role in that (those lines didn’t get many minutes at 5 on 5) but taking Ennis away from Archie/Khaira likely had a negative effect on that line (although Ennis played well up top).

I feel that its always pointed out when the likes of Russell or Larsson go “off the glass and out” or ring one around the boards but it rarely gets mentioned when they do make positive transition plays as both did last night.

I like Caleb Jones as well and want him in the lineup over Russell/Koekkoek generally but I feel the egregiousness of him sitting is a bit over-stated – he’s not Parayko or his older brother but a sophomore still finding his way and developing in real time.

Oilers have won 7 of their last 9 and the two losses were mainly on tending (one combined tending/defensive mistakes).

Coaching and deployment must be somewhat positive given the success the team is having.

Oilman99

Last nights refereeing was an embarrassment to the league. Two fantom high sticking penalties, two Oiler players high stocked(one bleeding) giving a goon a dirty glove in the face, those two refs should be sent back to peewee hockey.

Last edited 12 days ago by Oilman99
SoCaloil

Agreed completely

id like to see the Averaged refs nhl games served showed over the past 20 years
along with the Gaussian distribution.
I have a feeling the NHL has been chiseling these guys salary and thus they have less experienced guys

Gone are the days of knowing a ref by name like Don Kocharski

there’s a worthy athletic article for you LT

Munny

Michael Markovic and Brad Meier

They have a union though so likely got a pay raise this morning…

😉

Shane

Kailer Yamamoto is a fantastic player. That ‘I’m gonna make you regret not drafting me’ attitude mixes really well with his unconventional style of play and motor that doesn’t quit. His being a really well rounded defensive player is just icing on the cake.

Exactly the type of player this team needed at the right time.

Pouzar

The Vesalainen crowd sure are quiet 😛

Alpine

How about the Tolvanen/Poehling or anyone else who’s taller crowd? Man I saw some weird post-draft preferences.

Elgin R

Love the confidence and swagger of the comment and he sure shows it on the ice. 4th highest pts percentage and 8 in points for forwards from his draft class (70+ games). Fun to watch!

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of “motor”, I’d be Puljujarvi’s motor in a similar category to Kailers and, in the next 2-24 months, this team will add an even stronger “motor” in Dylan Holloway.

Darth Tu

I am so very happy for Puljujarvi, I want nothing more than for him to succeed. He’s doing it. I feel like more goals are going to start going in for him too, plus he’s starting to turn into a beast to play against.

jp

I don’t know if Holland *knew*, but he damn sure had an idea of Puljujarvi’s true value.

So great that he’s been able to come back to the Oilers as the player we see today.

Woogie63

Caleb Jones has played 7 games and sat out 11 games. Clearly not the development plan for a 23 year defenseman, But why?

Not in shooting lanes?
At this point I would hope he would “Hendrick” any shot to stay in the line-up, this is fitness, courage and willingness NOT skill.

Pinches at the wrong times?
At this point he must have watch lots of film to see the play develop, but you HAVE TO PLAY to learn how to read when to pinch.

Need PK defenders and Jones is not that guy?
Jones skates better than, Koekkoek, Russell, and Larsson you HAVE TO PLAY to learn how to position your stick and body on the PK

Redbird62

Tippett’s first job is to win hockey games. He puts out the line-up on any night he and his staff believe give them the best chance to win. If getting players development time can be done without what he feels is a big risk, then he will work that in.

Tippett has made it pretty clear in his discussion about the deployment of the defense that a lot of thought goes into having enough guys to do the right jobs. In that regard, he has hinted at and almost outright said that Jones has not gotten back into the lineup due to Bear not being available. With Bear and Larsson in the Line-up, he feels he is covered on the right side of the penalty kill, but with Bear out, he has needed 3 of his lefty’s to be penalty killers, with some ability to do that on the right side. Koekkoek and Russell both have experience killing penalties on the right side. I think once Bear gets back in, Jones will get an opportunity to slot back in and he will need to use that opportunity to regain Tippett’s and Playfair’s trust.

Last edited 12 days ago by Redbird62
Redbird62

And to be able to block shots as a defenseman is not as simple as a willingness to sacrifice. More often than not, you have to properly anticipate the shot and time your move to be in the right location so it hits you. I believe Jones would have no issue putting himself in the way of shots when required, but if he is out of position, or not anticipating correctly, the shots get on net cleanly.

pts2pndr

Skating is part of his job not being able to defend makes him equally qualified for figure skating

wolf8888

Are you seriously saying that you come to PLAY in the NHL to learn how?

Woogie63

Yes, I am saying that (aside from the Makar’s, McDavid’s etc.) part of the development of a player is 160ish NHL games. Slotting young men on the third pairing or fourth line, playing more when the team has a 3 goal lead, playing with a quality veteran is part of developing 90% of the NHL players.

OriginalPouzar

I know the saying “the NHL is not a development league” but, in reality, almost all players continue to develop in the NHL.

Evan Bouchard is “NHL ready” but he’s 100% developing while playing in the NHL.

Darnell Nurse is still developing in the NHL.

Shit, even Connor McDavid is still developing.

Absolutely Jones needs to play in order to develop the skills that the coach requires for him to be an every day NHL d-man. He’ll get his playing time and will develop.

The PK was losing the team games to start the season – it had allowed a PK goal in 2 of the last 6 games going in to last night. I don’t think its a coincidence that the improvement in the PK happened as the team started to win more game.

Jones needs to PK in order to get better at the PK – it will come but, right now, the coach needs more established PK options in the lineup and, with Bear out, that means Jones gets sat for a guy with that skill-set.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The whole thing about the NHL not being a development league (a dandy quote from The Dementor) gets misconstrued sometimes.

Of course players like McDavid and Nurse are still developing. And so are the likes of Lagesson and Bouchard.

The crux of the matter is they’re at or above replacement level while being in the NHL.

When Eakins made that comment, he was pointing out the absurdity of having Acton-level players to deploy on a nightly basis instead of actual NHL players.

Having said that, is Caleb Jones at or above replacement level? Yes, I think so. Are there better deployment options for the coaches on the roster? Yes, I think so, depending on the opponent.

wolf8888

That’s actually a different point than “you have to play to learn how to position your stick” isn’t it?

Litke 94

One thing I loved last night was Tippet’s presser. Someone had asked him what it was like to have a front row seat to watch McDavid.

He proceeded to list off all the great players he has coached (Modano, Guerin, etc.) and said that in the stats he keeps and tracks, through ALL of the great players he has coached… he has never seen anything like McDavid. He said no one even comes close.

I sat in bed thinking about just how special McDavid is, and just how lucky our northern outpost is to be able to watch him as one of ours on a nightly basis.

For horse racing fans, McDavid is our Secretariat. He’s 40 lengths ahead of the field, and damn it, we have a share in the ownership. Lovely.

dustrock

If I have natural stat trick right, Oilers are 27th in the league 5v5 CF%. 47.63%.

Ahead of Columbus, LA, Hawks and Flyers.

GF% they are 18th at 49.38%.

Elgin R

But if you subtract Turris’s contributions to the team they would probably be top 10!

jp

But if you subtract Turris’s contributions to the team they would probably be top 10!

It’s actually 50% true.

With Turris OFF the Oilers CF% is 49.2% (which would rank 19th in the league).

But their GF% is 55.7% (would rank 9th).

Their SF% also gets up past break even at 50.4% as well (would rank 15th).

OriginalPouzar

The 5 on 5 GF% has increased markedly over the last while.

Remember there was zero depth scoring for the first 7-8 games – now contributions are coming from all over the lineup.

The Oilers have won 7 of the last 9 and its not because of a lights out PP – they have been scoring at evens, through the lineup. Yup, still giving up lots but not as much as they are getting, generally.

OriginalPouzar

The Oilers don’t have room for 3 goalies on their active roster (unless they are willing to waive Koekkoek).

claiming a goalie doesn’t help as they will just lose him trying to get him to the taxi squad.

Redbird62

Winnipeg will probably get to keep Forsberg for a while, since Comrie will be in the Covid protocol for probably 2 weeks at least unless Manitoba now has the same program Alberta does.

I am curious if the waiver team ranking has reset yet for the standings, since the league is now a month into it. If that is the case, Edmonton would currently get to claim ahead of Winnipeg so I wonder why Edmonton wouldn’t have claimed Comrie themselves as they would also have a couple of weeks to figure out how to deal with the waiver situation. Maybe waivers are still based on last year’s standings.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, we are past one-month in to the season so the waiver claim order is based on standings.

The Oilers are ahead of the Jets via points but the Jets are ahead of the Oilers via points percentage. I presume that is straight points (as it is in normal years) and the Jets had first claim.

In any event, a claim by the Oilers would be essentially meaningless anyways unless they are willing to waive Koekkoek or remove Bouchard from the lineup.

They don’t have room for a third goalie on the roster.

I guess they could put Lagesson on IR for a roster spot but I don’t think he’s likely to be out that long.

Claiming a waived goalie doesn’t help much as they don’t want three goalies on the active roster.

Redbird62

Actual per the CBA 13.19(b), the determinant is points %, so the Oilers would have priority over the Jets if based on current standings. It seems because Winnipeg took him back from the initial transaction, they were able to put him straight to the taxi-squad, ie. for them he has now cleared waivers. Maybe when Forsberg does get put out their again, if no one else claims him, the Oilers will get to do the same and put him on the taxi-squad so he won’t take up a roster spot or have to clear waivers. Hopefully between now and when the Jets will hopefully waive Forsberg, no other team suddenly has a need for a 3rd goalie.

OriginalPouzar

The Jets could only put him on the taxi squad if no other team put in a claim for him.

If Forsberg is waived and the Oilers claim (and get) him – he can only go to the taxi squad of no other team put in a claim for him (in addition to the Oilers).

EDIT: Sorry, I see you already made that point and were in the know: apologies.

Last edited 12 days ago by OriginalPouzar
McNuge93

But if winnipeg eventually waives Forsberg doesnt the waiver priority just continue on from the previous ranking.i.e. winnipeg on up. So if it gets back to the Oilers can they not then put him on the taxi squad since he has passed through all 31 teams on waivers?

OriginalPouzar

No, the player would need to go through waivers all over again (available to all 30 teams) unless the Oilers were the only other team that put a claim in the first time (which we don’t know but is probably unlikely).

Oilman99

Smith has annual groin problems, the risk is worth it to have some short time insurance.

€√¥£€^$

Whoops I didn’t see the Jets claim before I posted.

This is not a surprise, but I wonder how this will play out. I hope like hell we get Forsberg back.

Last edited 12 days ago by €√¥£€^$
dustrock

If I recall correctly, the DRY line was torching the entire NHL last year but the actual GF was far above xGF.

This year, again and again, Drai is getting caved in possession (LT has the DFF numbers in his Turris article at The Athletic) but the GF% is good.

Is there something this line is doing that results in losing the shot battle on a regular basis but winning the scoring war?

Munny

I don’t think anyone uses DFF as a proxy for possession. If they do, not sure why they would.

giddy

To shed some further light, Drai’s 5v5 PDO this season is 108

Seems like a mix of puck luck and probably shot quality. The difference between his corsi and fenwick also gives a bit more insight, his fenwick is 1.4% higher indicating quality

Last edited 12 days ago by giddy
OriginalPouzar

Higher shooting percentage but sustainable higher shooting percentage due to skill and type of shots taken.

I remember a stat mid-way through last season where Drai had the highest percentage of one-timers taken in the league (or something like that).

Non-volume shooters that create high danger chance – add that to great shots (with Dra) and the shooting percentage will be sustainably high.

godot10

Yamamoto and Kahun are great at cycling and maintaining zone time, but are awful at getting the puck to Draisaitl for shots. And Kahun doesn’t shoot much. Yamamoto doesn’t have a good shot. Yamamoto is an elite garbage collector in front of the net, but without Nugent-Hopkins with Draisaitl getting the pucks to the net, Yamo’s biggest offensive strength is taken away from him.

The Oilers would rise to the top of the Canadian division if they put Nugent-Hopkins with Draisaitl.

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
WIN claims Comrie

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1362447243798851587?s=20

Justthestatsman

I wonder if the Oilers will put a claim on Forsberg when he goes on waivers. There shouldn’t be any quarantining issues.

OriginalPouzar

There is the issue that the Oilers can’t have 3 goalies on the active roster (unless they bite the bullet and waive Koekkoek – which I’d be fine with).

€√¥£€^$

They currently have 13 forwards on the active roster, as per CapFriendly. I don’t think there is a positional restriction, so if they simply send Wells to the minors, Shore to the Taxi squad and add Forsberg, that is 23, so done deal.

A few teams are carrying 3 goalies (NJ, AZ, Wpg,NYI) and a few have 8 dmen (Edm,Ott, Pit, Was) but no team has 3 goalies and 8 D. Most teams do not have 23 on the roster, but if the Oilers were to do so 12 Fwd 8 D 3 G, it would be absolutely no issue.

OriginalPouzar

Capfriendly is wrong then – Shore is not on the active roster, he was sent to the taxi squad to make room for Haas.

This is the issue with the 9D – they can’t have 9D and 3G on the roster (as it prohibits them from having 12 forwards).

Russell can’t be waived. Bouchard needs to play. The only real option is Koekkoek (which I’d be fine with but not really for a 3G that, well, isn’t any good anyways and isn’t going to save the season)

€√¥£€^$

This is where the liberal use of the IR comes into play, if it comes down to it, I would think.

One thing to also note, Comrie is on Winnipeg’s Taxi squad, from a Global Article about his claim yesterday: “Since the Jets were the original team that lost him on waivers earlier in the season, Comrie didn’t have to clear waivers again to be assigned to the taxi squad.”

One thing I’ve noticed that really sticks out to me, as I had posted a few days ago in your post about the comparatively huge number of roster moves in the first month of this season, is the movement of Carolina’s 3rd G Alex Nedeljkovic. Since Jan 31st he’s moved from the taxi squad to the NHL roster 15 times. They used an emergency roster exemption initially on Jan 31 and then brought him up on an Emergency Loan 7 times. During this period he has played 3 times (1 win, 1 loss) with sub-par results (0.886 SP).

Here’s hoping Carolina is not waiting in the weeds to scoop up Forsberg again.

OriginalPouzar

That quote from Global is not correct. Their ability to put him on the taxi squad is not because they were the original team that last him – that doesn’t matter. They can only put him on their taxi squad if they were the only team that put in a claim for him. If, say, the Leafs had put in a claim for him, they could not place him on the taxi squad without further waivers.

Also, the Oilers would be able to claim Forsberg in priority to the Canes – with that said, the Oilers would only be able to put Forsberg on the taxi squad if no one after them put in a claim (so the Canes putting in, or not putting in, a claim could be a material factor).

Last edited 12 days ago by OriginalPouzar
Elgin R

Gaetan Hass
Looked like an NHL player last night. Brings it on the forecheck and gets back for good d-zone work. Needs to work on winning more faceoffs, but a vast improvement over Turris in every other aspect of the game (also including some good PK time). Holland can now waive Turris to the taxi squad. It would be hilarious if some team claimed him – hey Dorion he could help he really could.

Pouzar

That would take Old Dutch admitting he whiffed badly on his 3C solution. Although passing through waivers is a virtual certainty there is no downside to it other than a hit to the GM’s ego.

Munny

He doesn’t seem to have a problem with that sort of thing.

Also we don’t know the effect Turris’s former coach had on the signing.

There is some whiff protection built into that AAV. But really we need Turris to do his old coach a favour and retire in the off-season.

Darth Tu

I’m not sure Holland will be that worried about public perception if Turris did get claimed. Look at AA – it didn’t work out for him here, and Holland had no issue walking away rather than doubling down with a new contract. The lost picks hurt, but it seemed like the right decision at the time to both a) trade for him in the first place and b) let him walk in free agency.

Of course he now has 5 points in the 7 games he’s played for LA – I’ve watched zero LA hockey though so have no idea how his general play has been.

Pouzar

Yeah good point on AA. But that may actually want him to keep Turris longer. Doesn’t want to be wrong on pro player procurement again.

Darth Tu

Full disclosure – I thought the Turris signing was a decent move when it happened. Was a bit unsure he’d work as a defensive minded C that was on the penalty kill, but thought he’d gobble up 3rd line mins and post some crooked numbers. I was very wrong.

That said, he’s what, 1.65 mill a year for this year and next? Shouldn’t be too hard to either trade him, or bury him in the minors. That hurts Katz more than anyone though.

Yikes – I was just checking his contract structure before posting, I always forget that his contract is $2.2 mill next season ($1.1 mill this year). I guess maybe he is less tradeable than I thought. No bonuses either, so just straight cash.

OriginalPouzar

Holland has waived plenty of guys he signed/brought in – Ennis, Chiasson, Nygard, Shore, etc.

Holland walked away from AA.

I don’t think Holland’s ego is an issue in this regard.

OriginalPouzar

Hass has played ahead of Turris in all three of his games (although, last night, Turris did have more 5 on 5 ice than Haas but Haas had more overall ice due to PK).

I don’t think Turris is going to be waived any time soon – he is having his 5 on 5 center ice taken by Khaira and Haas and is now relegated to a winger and 5C but injuries will happen and, of course, Khaira has a history of, well, not being consistent.

Turris doesn’t deserve to be in the lineup on merit, i agree but I do not think the org is willing to give up on this player yet. Maybe they should but I don’t think they have.

Elgin R

Turris is not better than any of the wingers available for the 4th line, which is the only place he could play wing. Why not waive him to make room for another player (goalie)? No other team will claim him and then he is available if (hopefully not) required to cover at center.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t necessarily disagree but I’m not the one making the decisions.

I don’t think the organization is quite yet ready to shut the door on this player – right now role and ice time has been reduced:

(1) 3C and PK to (2) 3C to (3) 4C to (4) 4W

Next stop will be the press-box but I don’t think they are ready to waive the guy and, frankly, right now, there is no room for an extra forward except on the taxi squad.

They may get there but I don’t think its imminent.

Oz

Great game by the heavy hitters last night, Archibald, Larson, Nurse and Yamamoto (pound for pound he is amazing), Leon D and 100% effort by the rest of the team.

Elgin R

Archie driving Lowry to the ice then giving him a stinky-glove facewash was outstanding. Archie only giving up 7″ and 34 lbs! Good to see JJ come in to settle it down.

LMHF#1

I’m glad they won last night. It shows the team is objectively better than squads of recent years.

That was a pretty mediocrely played and horridly coached game for the Oilers. They were fortunate Winnipeg couldn’t execute, and a few of the talented players did just enough to squeak it out. The third period was disgusting. Just awful hockey. They need to be so much better than that.

While Tippett is a better coach than McLellan was, he does have a few similar issues. All of the classic former player ‘just a hockey guy’ coaches have their players that they rely on and just keep sending out even when it’s not working and we know that…but I’m also seeing over the years that so few of these coaches are actually what I would describe as present during a game to the point where they can break a trend. They aren’t strong at noticing things and making a shift before it hurts the team or while there’s still time to take advantage. I’m not saying this is easy by any stretch, but this is also the best hockey league in the world.

Everyone and their dog could see the powerplay was not connecting last night. You don’t just keep sending it out there and waiting and hoping…that doesn’t work. There are options – time outs, getting a different player out there, changing to an alternate break-in, or even something much less obvious.

This also happens of course with goalies. You can see when a goalie is not on his game for the most part. They’ll be positioned differently, not moving with the puck, not being assertive. Yet almost every coach waits far too long to act on these inputs and the team gets too far behind. When was the last time you saw a coach pull a goalie with the lead? This *should* actually happen. It doesn’t. In a way it’s the same thought process that says “well…we won…so same lineup!”. That approach is idiotic. No other sports does this. There are always adjustments to be made and matchups to take advantage of.

Anyway – random musings. Just glad they got 2 points. Not something they’ve gotten away with much in the last 20 years or so.

dustrock

Oh, so you don’t think it made sense that Barrie played 27 minutes last night and Bouchard 9 minutes? Ha ha ha

Darth Tu

I could be wrong, but didn’t Puljujarvi get some time on PP1 instead of Chiasson? It looked to me like they were trying to change things up a bit mid game with the PP.

Then for the final powerplay they went standard lines – it was almost like a run the clock down rather than try to get an insurance goal situation. Not what I would have went with, but like you say the PP wasn’t rhyming last night so I guess it made sense to try and go for the steady as she goes, secure the win option.

LMHF#1

The final powerplay was disgraceful, cowardly, and could easily have cost them a point. They were fortunate.

Go two D? Sure. But don’t approach it they way they did. You view it as a great opportunity to finish the game and show killer instinct via a PP that has no business being stopped.

Darth Tu

I don’t know if I agree that it was disgraceful or cowardly. I get that it could have cost a point, but I also understand that Tippett was thinking at all costs, let’s not get caught on a breakaway.

Defensive minded but I understand the logic, even if I don’t agree with it.

OriginalPouzar

but that PP that they kept putting out there ended up scoring the winning goal.

LMHF#1

They scored once and were ineffectual otherwise to the point of degrading momentum when it should have put the game out of reach.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

How far down the depth chart is Caleb Jones right now? Is he stealing Playfair’s lunches out of the team fridge or what?

Klefbom (Injured)
Nurse
Lagesson (DTD)
Russell
Koekkoek
Bouchard (on wrong side)
Jones

BONE207

No stealth? Has to stop to take his skates off before getting into the kitchen…🤣

Elgin R

This is getting beyond weird. Bouchard made 2 egregious errors on own-zone outlet attempts last night but gets a pass from the coach. Young D will make these mistakes – it is part of the process. So Jones makes, according to Tippet, two egregious errors on the PK and he is done. If there is not something else going on here, Tippet’s position of playing Koekkoek over Jones is hard to defend. If Jones does not play once Bear is back, then can one assume he is done with the Oilers?

Munny

When did Bouchard get this pass from the coach?

His ice time was cut by 12 minutes within the game you are describing! And we have yet to play another game.

Last edited 12 days ago by Munny
OriginalPouzar

Thank you – I was going to say that same thing. Bouch wasn’t playing as well lats night as he was on Monday and his ice time was materially reduced as a result.

For all we know, he comes out of the lineup next game if Bear is back and Jones goes in for Koekkoek.

I think, once Bear is back, Jones will get some game as it allows for a PK guy (Koekkoek/Russell) to come out for Jones.

pts2pndr

This is not how this went by my recollection. Jones did not get in the shooting lane on a penalty kill opposition scored. Jones benched one game. This was I am sure discussed and or explained. The very first game back after sitting out one game Jones does the exact same thing team giving up a goal and Jones has been sitting since. What message would the coach be sending to the rest of the team if he hurried him back into the lineup. Jones will get his chance when the coach thinks the timing is right. Tough Love so to speak!

OriginalPouzar

I agree with this. At the end of the day, as of now, the coach does not believe he can trust Jones on the PK and the coach believes the PK to be very important and wants 4 PK d-men in the lineup. We saw the need for this with Nurse taking two minors (kind of) and Russell taking a minor.

I believe, once Bear is back in the lineup, providing an extra PK d-man, it will help Tip and Playfair get Jones back in the lineup.

ArmchairGM
€√¥£€^$

I looked for info on him, he is a good AHL candidate. He has scored very consistently and is trending toward his most productive year, and scored 20 goals last year, a mark not achieved at BG in several years, but he certainly is no Ryan Kuffner…..

2 of his teammates graduated to the pros this year and are currently in the ECHL, one is a UFA signee with Florida, the other is a Vegas draft pick. These players had better numbers over their career. Perhaps he could be signed on an AHL deal and take Joey G’s spot, but who knows what will happen.

Last edited 12 days ago by €√¥£€^$
Bryan

The play by Yamamoto where he slammed on the brakes in front of the goalie while the defender flew on by was something else. If he had scored there it would have been a keeper for the annual highlight package.

John Chambers

It was both a brilliantly creative and brilliantly athletic play.

I wish he had scored there – it would’ve been worth it to hear Jack Michaels lose his marbles.

dustrock

[Ron Howard] Kyle Turris was indeed playing himself out of the NHL.[/Ron Howard]

Darth Tu

this is a top tier comment. Well done sir.

OriginalPouzar

Kyle Turris as a center on the Oilers is no longer a thing (with a healthy lineup).

Kyle Turris is now a winger and was much better last night but that is because he wasn’t the major culprit on a goal against. Small steps.

McSorley33

Kyle Turris is terrible at wing as well.

Big time.

Moving from C to Wing does nothing to enhance his game –

OriginalPouzar

Perhaps – that is TBD – likely, but TBD.

What it should do, is decrease the egregiousness of his defensive mistakes and issues.

No dash 1 (or 2 or 3) beside his name last night – that’s somewhat rare so far this season.

jp

No dash 1 (or 2 or 3) beside his name last night – that’s somewhat rare so far this season.

Now I’m not going to argue anything silly like that Turris has turned a corner or something.

But he is 4GF-4GA at 5v5 in for his last 8 games. The bleeding seems to have been curbed, whatever the reason.

Last edited 12 days ago by jp
Pouzar

Stats of the weird:

P/60:
Taylor Hall: 1.01
Kyle Turris: 1.01

maudite

Ouch. Haven’t been paying much attention outside North Division…Hall must be hating life right now.

jtblack

Where Hall goes, the winning follows.

1 Goal in 12 games??

Pouzar

One more than Ryan Johansen and Kyle Palmieri who have no goals or points! YIKES!

Darth Tu

Johansen has 2 points – and isn’t he on IR?

Pescador

So many Johansens in the NHL
so few points

Bobcaygeon

You think this is Hall’s fault? Eichel has two goals, so by that he must be terrible?
Yet Hall has 9 points in what 11 games or 12 games…..

PokeCheck

Opportunity for a 1-for-1 trade with Buffalo?

Dee Dee

I used to feel a little sorry for Hall for getting traded to New Jersey then Arizona being forced to play for bad team after bad team without any say in the matter.

When he finally was able to choose his own destiny he announced he wanted to forgo a little salary and play for a contender. Right On!!!

Then he signs with Buffalo for a big bag of money…..

Elgin R

Yeah same here. Two-faced comes to mind – may have a future in politics.

Bobcaygeon

Let me know when you would’t take a significant pay increase to help out.

This was a calculated risk from Hall, get exposure playing on a top line to increase his stats that may lead to him landing on a SC contender.

Money had something to do with it but it wasn’t the sole reason, Hall is taking a huge risk here.

Pescador

Easy,
When I already have several Million dollars in the bank and the choice is between $5.5 & $8 million per year.
I’m taking job satisfaction
All
Day
Long

Munny

John Wawrow
@john_wawrow
·
19h

Never realized it was this bad:

Eichel ($10M cap hit): 2 goals (11 points)
Skinner ($9M): 0 goals (1 point)
Hall ($8M): 1 goal, (9 points)
Okposo ($6M): 0 goals (0 points)
Reinhart ($5.2M): 3 goals (7 points)

$38.2 million has so far bought 6 goals and 28 points.

(Wawrow is a Buffalo reporter)

Last edited 12 days ago by Munny
Dee Dee

That’s “only” about $1.36 Million a point.

MushedPeas

. I genuinely believe that play works because the goalie is not certain JP can stop the train on time.”

gold.

MushedPeas

Hey LT, heads up that The Athletic isn’t collecting your Nuge article as Oilers content. At least not on my iOS app.

N64

Bad omen. Wonder which team the Nuge UFA post got tagged to.

Ben

Conny HockeyTM is one of those players who’s worth practically any salary number. If they lost every game I’d still tune in just to watch him do absurd, butt-clenching hockey stuff. Every night he’s a Globetrotter amongst Generals.

wolf8888

Terrible, terrible nickname

Ben

People really underestimating the troll job.

Munny

It so on the nose I think they see it coming a mile away… and on top of it, do not want their Superstar associated with the tiny gutless Flames puke in any way, shape or form. It’s like you’re trolling Connor.

Last edited 12 days ago by Munny
wolf8888

That’s one way of looking at it

Darth Tu

Yes. It doesn’t sit well, it’s a low tier effort at trolling. Sorry Ben.

McJesus is my go to for Mr McDavid.

Woodguy v2.0

Chiasson’s stick committed suicide instead of giving the poor guy a deserved power-play goal. That’s some mean wood.

The problem there was that it wasn’t wood.

Tarkus

Therein lies the problem: identity crisis.

Woodguy v2.0

The Klondiker Hotel and Tavern NHL North Division standings February 18th using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

TOR +9
MTL +5
WPG +3
EDM +2
CGY +1
VAN -3
OTT -9

Ben

Hoping the Malt Stop at the Bay’s Southgate location steps up with a sponsorship package at some point.

Reja

Pa Peterson

Munny

You look more like a Greenbrier man…

Woodguy v2.0

Back in the day going to the Diker for a drink was a right of passage. Use to watch the ballet at the Saxony too.

Woodguy v2.0

EDM Goal Share after 18 games (10-8-0)

Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29 (11-15)-42%
29 w/o 97 (13-6)-68%
97 & 29 On (7-0)-100%
Turris (6-13)-32%
Other (5-8)-38%
Net EV 0

Special Teams: 18-16
Net ST +2

Empty Net: 3-2
Net EN +1

SO & PS 0-0
Net SO & PS 0

Net Goal Diff +3

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