Harvest in California

by Lowetide
Stuart Skinner photo by Mark Williams

I have different levels of belief about hockey fancy stats. I’m a fan of Corsi with shot differential, goal differential and recommend Puck IQ. I know Ethan Bear is having a good season (before injury) because his relative numbers are flying high above the rest of Edmonton’s blue. I trust five on five per 60 output because it’s the hardest place to score and the most common game state.

I don’t completely trust save percentage. All shots are not created equal and they don’t all come from the same distance. What’s more, although I’ve been told forever that I can trust SP because it’s goalie versus shooter, I’ve seen enough bad hockey teams to know pucks go in from the moon on poor clubs. A team that lacks structure, that is in constant chaos, that is outmanned or too young, all of those things contribute in my opinion.

Bad teams leave their goalie to stop the rebound and another, and another. In 1975-76, Gilles Meloche of the California Seals had an .890 save percentage, while Ken Dryden of the Montreal Canadiens sported a .927 save percentage. I don’t believe Meloche would have delivered .890 in Montreal; Dryden would have lost some points on that SP without Robinson, Lapointe and Savard in my opinion.

I don’t say anything, and use SP straight up, because we need something called “prevailing wisdom” and chances are the solution to the SP problem will arrive when I’m long gone and people drop by this site to see what “50 years after Lowetide” looks like. Be kind to the animals, my money is on the hyenas.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

STUART SKINNER

The Oilers value Stuart Skinner. At a guess, I expect the men who drafted him in 2017 (Bob Green, Keith Gretzky, scouts) are on his side when his name comes up in conversation.

Where is he on Ken Holland’s whiteboard? I think third, soon to be fourth when Anton Forsberg arrives back in Edmonton. How long will he be there? He needs a strong AHL season. Here are Skinner’s numbers going back to his draft year and his save percentage rank in the league he played in.

  • 2016-17: 60 games, 3.26 .905 (WHL) (No. 15)
  • 2017-18: 56 games, 3.07, .905 (WHL) (No. 14)
  • 2018-19: 41 games, 3.16 .903 (ECHL) (No. 27)
  • 2019-20: 41 games, 3.31 .892 (AHL) (No. 45)
  • 2020-21: 4 games, 2.01 .916 (AHL) (No. 17)

So far in his career Skinner has peaked in the middle (11-20) three of five seasons, with a couple of early pro years outside what we might consider true prospect status. Is this the resume of a future NHL starter? No. What does that look like?

DEVAN DUBNYK

  • 2003-04: 44 games, 2.51, .917 (WHL) (No. 10)
  • 2004-05: 65 games, 2.69, .912 (WHL) (No. 12)
  • 2005-06: 54 games, 2.54, .912 (WHL) (No. 12)
  • 2006-07: 43 games, 2.56, .921 (ECHL) (No. 6)
  • 2007-08: 33 games, 3.12, .904 (AHL) (No. 33)
  • 2008-09: 62 games, 2.97, .906 (AHL) (No. 28)

Dubnyk was top-10 in his draft year and in the top-15 through his first three post-draft campaigns. He had plenty of wobble in the AHL, although he was taking on double the work season over season. Skinner’s junior seasons aren’t miles from Dubnyk, and his AHL seasons are distant relatives. What does an obvious NHL goalie look like?

GRANT FUHR

  • 1979-80: 43 games, 3.14 .911 (WHL) (No. 1)
  • 1980-81: 59 games, 2.78 .908 (WHL) (No. 1)
  • 1981-82: 48 games, 3.31 .899 (NHL) (No. 2)

Okay, well that was a strong progression and gives us an idea about how it can work if you pick in the top-10 overall and grab the right guy.

INJURIES AND RECALLS

We have some actual news from various parts of the hockey world. Slater Koekkoek is injured and that means the Oilers will need to rely more on youngsters Caleb Jones and (when healthy) William Lagesson on the LH side of Edmonton’s defence.

This could benefit Edmonton, although people won’t look at it that way and I don’t mean to imply that Koekkoek has negative value. However, if you look at the numbers, Jones was delivering handsome return for minutes invested when he was benched.

All of these numbers are five on five via NST. Koekkoeke’s TOI is skewed because his final game was mere seconds in length, but fair to say he was mostly a third-pairing option. Jones has better numbers across the board, as does Lagesson. One more thing: Edmonton will be a better team the moment Bear returns. Good player.

Edmonton recalled Theodor Lennstrom from Bakersfield to replace Koekkoek, who will be lost for the rest of the season. He will have to go through Covid-19 protocols and should be available around March 9.

Dmitri Samorukov, who is having what might be the best season by an Oilers defensive prospect, will miss the rest of the season. It’s a downer because there was hope he’d see action in Bakersfield, but this has been a strong year for him. Samorukov is the No. 3 defensive prospect in the system, behind Evan Bouchard (who is 34 games from graduating) and Philip Broberg.

OILERS ROSTER FIVE ON FIVE PER 60

This is a strong group of five on five per 60 numbers, with Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie all showing well among defensemen; centers McDavid, Draisaitl and Khaira have delivered well based on their roles; wingers Ennis, Chiasson, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto all delivering solid to excellent offense.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have two hours but may need more. The Oilers weekend sweep of the Calgary Flames is at the very least an exceptional moment in the season, and is possibly more. We’ll chat Raptors and NBA rookies with Paul Sir from the Basketball Show at 10:40, and Jason Gregor from TSN1260 talks Oilers weekend, Kailer Yamamoto’s injury and expectations of Caleb Jones return this week. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes from show time!

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jp

Canadian Division goaltenders by SV%.

(no, this isn’t to tout Mike Smith as the best goalie in Canada, rather to (re)set SV% expectations for the high scoring frozen North Div).

Mike Smith ————– 5GP .940
Laurent Brossiot ——- 4GP .935
Jake Allen ————– 7GP .932
Jack Campbell ——– 2GP .923
Connor Hellebuyck- 14GP .916
Michael Hutchinson- 2GP .914
Jacob Markstrom – 15GP .909
David Rittich ——– 6GP .909
Frederik Andersen 14GP .905
Mikko Koskinen — 15GP .901
Thatcher Demko — 12GP .901
Braden Holtby —– 10GP .893
Carey Price ——— 10GP .893
Matt Murray ———- 15GP .883
Stuart Skinner ———- 1GP .868
Marcus Hogberg —— 10GP .859

Most of the guys with 10GP have kinda crap numbers. The Habs did well to sign Allen though.

And all situations SV% for the teams:
Winnipeg – .917 (#4 in the NHL)
Toronto — .907 (#14)
Montreal – .907 (#15)
Calgary — .906 (#16)
Edmonton .905 (#18)
Vancouver .892 (#25)
Ottawa —- .871 (#31)

Oilers are *fine*, like the other playoff contenders.

hunter1909

Congrats to the Oilers for yet another excellent game vs the Flames. Nurse looked particularly interesting.

Nurse = Pronger replacement

jtblack

Curtis Lazar got his 4th Goal for Buffalo tonight.
Eichel, Hall & Skinner have a total of 3.

How is that possible. Buffalo is Edm East. I like Ralph and wish Hall well.

Edm seems to have worked out of the gutter. Buff not so much

hunter1909

Cobbling together a collection of random players rarely works. Ken Holland has changed that culture. End of story.

jp

Edm seems to have worked out of the gutter. Buff not so much

Hey, it hasn’t been a full decade yet.

oilsnc79

I like the Colorado Nordiques sweater. Nice tripbute.

oilsnc79

F**kin spell check

OriginalPouzar

Tough to process the selke trophy (and Hart) lock going pointless and taking a dash at 5 on 5 in a loss against a struggling and demoralized team that had been struggling to score goals

Material Elvis

The Toronto media will find a silver lining somewhere in there. Not sure how they’ll handle his inevitable points/game and shooting percentage regression. Maybe they can run it through their brutal analysis filter known as Cassie Campbell. What do her eyes tell us that stats simply cannot?

Side

Connor McDavid will get a point tomorrow and Auston will get credited for inspiring Connor.

Munny

3-0. That should be enough. Leafs looking like they will take one in the L column, which is where we need to catch them.

Still 16 mins to survive, but I expect the Flames are going to be well-motivated to close this out.

Last edited 6 months ago by Munny
oilsnc79

Buds playing like crap as well. Slump in Aile 3…

Material Elvis

That spell check is really letting you down tonight.

Munny

Dunno if Calgary is good enough to hold a 2-0 lead against the Toronto Hart Trophies.

oilsnc79

The refs with help….

GMB3

Ennis-Khaira-Archibald are still running a 42%CF and 38%GF. They’ve gotten some puck luck though, so there isn’t nearly the same consternation there was for the Turris line who posted similar underlying numbers but was terrible in terms of GF%.

The PDO pony really is the ultimate narrative builder in hockey.

** Worth noting that their numbers look much better when filtering the game state to within 1 goal.

Edmonton’s 5v5 xgf% through the first 10 games the season was 10th in the NHL, 7th worst in the NHL through their second 10 game segment. Some score effects at play there.

OriginalPouzar

Good information and I do think the caveat is important. Take Saturday’s game, that line was 30% CF% but, as we know, that was highly score effects related.

Also, both Khaira and Archie were on the ice for 5 on 5 goals last game but the line didn’t get credit for one as the trio was not on – just noting that the individuals playing well may not show up in the line trio stats, right?

Bling

Turris’ GF% is 30 and that number is pretty well deserved.

He was making all kinds of coverage mistakes. Even with some luck, Ennis-Khaira-Archibald is a huge improvement. I don’t think Turris has won a single puck battle all season.

N64

when I’m long gone and people drop by this site to see what “50 years after Lowetide” looks like. Be kind to the animals, my money is on the hyenas.

~ But the Calgary Hyena will be 83 by then ~

Munny

How much is that in hyena years?

OriginalPouzar

So, Markstrom is out for the flames tonight but now so is Freddie A.

Hutchinson vs. Rittich

Harpers Hair

Jacob Markstrom will not dress for the Flames tonight.

Out day to day with an upper body injury.

PokeCheck

Probably strained his back while carrying the team.

leadfarmer

He’s Trying to find the contract offer Holland sent him

Redbird62

While I have never subscribed to this thinking, a lot of people on this forum and others have opined that Nurse does not think the game well based on their observations. Based on how he is playing the game now, it would be even harder to argue this is the case. There is no question that as players gain experience they will process the game better. If you listened to his interview today, Nurse is a very thoughtful, well spoken individual. I realize that does not always translate to thinking quickly on the ice under duress. For a player like Nurse who has the wealth of physical tools he has, perhaps he went a little longer more relying on his physical tools to try and control the game and only in the past two season has been really focussing more on improving his on ice thought processes.

It was interesting to hear him talk about how he spend his off-season. Besides working on his skating, where he worked far more on balance and stop starts, turning et cetera to help him close gaps better, he also spend hours reviewing films to study how to read defensive situations better to understand when to press or not press, timing on closing gaps et cetera. One final note on Nurse’s thinking: When asked about Connor’s no-look goal, Nurse started his response by saying the first thought that went through his mind was how would he try to defend that.

GMB3

I don’t think anyone has ever accused Nurse of being a stupid person. He won the Bobby Smith trophy in the OHL for scholastic player of the year. The biggest question mark has been his defensive awareness in coverage, something thats mostly been poor throughout his career and has taken a step forward so far this season. He’s been riding a bit of PDO heater, and that always changes the narrative some, but I think the eye test mostly lines up with his GF% so far this season.

OriginalPouzar

Nurse has taken a step this year in 3-4 parts of his game but none more prominent (or important) than his defensive zone play – positioning, awareness and decision-making – its like the game has slowed down yet another step from him.

This was the step I hoped Nurse would take to take him to the next level, a legit top pairing guy.

I didn’t anticipate the steps he would take in other aspects of his game:

1) better medium length passing – both accuracy and pace
2) better decision making re: “going with the puck” out of the defensive zone
3) better offensive zone decision making
4) making these better decisions while playing massive minutes – playing as much as he did this weekend normally leads to mental fatigue and poor decisions – he was a beast all year long

The “additional steps” have propagated him in to a true #1D, as opposed to just a top pairing D.

Caveat: The way he’s played through 21 games is that of a true #1D – we don’t know if he can sustain this level of play through a season or seasons, plural.

If THIS Nurse is the Nurse for the next 5-6 years, that is MASSIVE and the money will work itself out.

McNuge93

I think we may need to start a media push for Nurse for the Norris. I know it would cost the team plenty on his contract but if he continues at this level he should be in the conversation. Since Matthews is a lock for the Hart we need an Oiler to win something.

Munny

I’m totally okay with Nurse winning five Norrises in a row… as long as he starts his run next year.

OriginalPouzar

He’s already signed for next season though…..

He’s 21 games in to his two-year $5.6M AAV deal and, so far, providing great value for that cap hit.

pts2pndr

I am on record as saying my belief was and still holds valid that elite athletes often use their athleticism to cover for mistakes until they learn the nuances that allow them to accomplish the same without the same degree of work/athleticism. Nurse will get better and add even more to his offence. We are I belief just seeing the beginning of a very special D man.

Munny

I agree. I said as much Saturday.

He’s taken the last step, the mental one. The calmness with which he approaches the game now is a noticeable and defining feature of his play. The athleticism as you say was always there. But this new head space is a huge step forward and now we’re saying words like “stud” and “trophies”.

Justthestatsman

Any word about any supplemental discipline to Bennett for the hit on Koekkoek? I’m assuming no. Louis didn’t seem to think it was a head shot, but to me it sure looked like Bennett was coming up and made his first contact with Koekkoek’s head.

OriginalPouzar

I think the Lindholm hit was likely closer to reiving a look for Player Safety.

Safe to say, at this point, with the flames about to take the ice, there is no such supplemental discipline coming.

pts2pndr

Do you know how the processes for review work. Do the officials initiate a review or does the team with the player that they feel was unfairly checked or fouled request the review. How exactly is the process supposed to work?

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know the answer to this but I don’t think its the on-ice officials and its not just a team requesting the league look at it. I think they look at all majors and PIMs that cause injury – I think but can’t be sure on that.

Munny

I’m probably going to cheer for the Flames to lose tonight, but really I think this is a no-lose* situation for me. If the Flambees lose, I’m happy. If the Leaves lose, I’m happy. You guys?

*just no three-pointers, please

Last edited 6 months ago by Munny
Elgin R

You nailed it. Win – Win – Lose for the Oilers fan base.

Leafs win – yeah ABC
Flames win – helps the Oilers catch the Leafs
3-Point game – Bettman sucks!

Bank Shot

In the past I would have been anti-Holloway coming out of college this season and stepping into the Oilers lineup, but I came to an epiphany today.

I actually trust Holland to do the right thing for both the Oilers and the prospect when it comes to development.

Its the first time I have trusted an Oilers GM in that regard ever.

Its feels good.

OriginalPouzar

It could happen but stepping from college to the NHL as a 19 year old seems aggressive.

Of note, there are no 19 or 20 year olds on the Oilers (or taxi squad) – Bouch at 21 is the youngest, followed by Puljujarvi and Yamamoto who are both 22.

Reja

It would sure be nice if the Leafs did us a solid and chased Markstrom by the end of the second.

OriginalPouzar

Markstrom out day-to-day with an upper body injury.

Reja

Any word on Kassian’s hand Holland might have to invest in some toughness to keep the Flames and Jets in line.

Shane

Nah, we’re doing just fine against the Flames..

Side

Agreed. The problem with Kassian’s toughness is he seems to try to match or escalate the Flames enthusiasm which gets the other Flames worked up as well and gives them life.

I would rather the Oilers keep doing what they were doing which was to try and ignore it as much as they and just play the game.

Tkachuk came in with a “spark” alright, but that “spark” was snuffed out around the time the Oilers got their 3rd or 4th goals.

Besides in terms of toughness, I am hard pressed to think of anyone on the team who shies away from that aspect. Largely the Oilers seem to have players who play tough and can dish it out and take hits, but know they are more valuable playing the game than sitting in the box with a broken hand. And they still have “deterrents” in Khaira and Nurse who will step up if needed. Even Yamamoto is relentless around bigger players and isn’t afraid of going to the hard areas.

Kassian’s the only player I can think of who goes out of his way to instigate and drop the kind of hit we would hate Tkachuk for, and that kind of toughness is what gets the opponents to rally around.

Reja

So your fine with 1 or 2 players getting hurt every time we play the Flames. The Flames are weasels they go after the defenceless they know better then to fuk with veterans like Chase or Neal because those boys will give a 2 hander where it hurts. Does Tampa win the cup without maroon throwing his weight around and getting the OT winner in game 2 if Tampa loses and goes down 2-0 in the series I don’t think they recover.

Side

How many deterrents do you need on a team to prevent a player from being injured before your team loses the game cause your tough guys can’t score goals?

Didn’t both of McDavids injuries happen during seasons which had some combination of Lucic/Kassian/Maroon on the team?

I can’t imagine having Maroon and Kassian on the ice against the Flames would have stopped Yamamoto/Koekoek from getting hit.

Besides, Khaira did respond for the Bennet hit on Koekoek, fought him and got him on wobbly legs with a shot.

And the Yamamoto hit still happened.

OriginalPouzar

Kassian in the lineup would have made zero difference to Bennett’s hit on Koekkoek, Lindholm’s hit on Yamamoto or Pionk’s general play and physicality on Drai/McDavid.

Kassian is not a deterrent to this.

Reja

i want the Flames to suffer we’ve been taking shit and abuse from Hrudey (love his staged room what a phoney fuk) Burke, Button, Cassie all married to the Flames they all despise Sather, Lowe and the rest of the gang.

godot10

The Oilers do better against Calgary without the distractions created by Kassian. The Oilers have a losing record against Calgary with Kassian in the lineup.

The Oilers PP goals against Calgary kept the Flames in line.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t imagine, for one second, that Kassian in the game deters Pionk from hitting Drai/McDavid, deters Bennett from hitting Koekkoek or deters Lindholm from hitting Kailer.

Khaira fought Bennett at the right time and in the right manner. Kassian has shown the penchant for the immediate emotional response and taking extra PIMs.

GMB3

100% correct here OP. The idea of someone being a deterrent has always been misguided and if it was ever relevant, it’s not anymore. Guys like Raffi Torres and Matt Cooke were always looking to for the opportunity to put someone out of the game, regardless of what tough guys the other team had. Truculence is a myth.

If it mattered, Marc Savard wouldn’t have had his bell rung with Lucic on his line twice.

OriginalPouzar

Muzzin with a broken bone in his face and will miss tonight’s game against the flames.

The plan is for him to return with a full face shield – not sure if that will in time for the 3-game set with Oilers from Sat-Wed.

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

David Pastrnak has 59 goals and 113 points in his last 82 games.

Redbird62

Very impressive. In his last 82 games, McDavid has 44 Goals and 129 Points. Draisaitl has 47 goals and 124 points. Pasternak is a great player no question, but he is still well back of McDavid/Draisaitl in total offensive production.

Dee Dee

Pastrnaks 113 points along with a salary of $6,666,666 means each point cost his team $58,997 dollars.

McDavid comes in at $96,899 and Draisaitl is $68,548.

Pasternak is a great player no question, and he is still way ahead of McDavid/Draisaitl in total value.

Last edited 6 months ago by Dee Dee
leadfarmer

Now put him on the ice with Kahun who is on pace for 20 points and Yamamoto who is on pace for 40

GMB3

I think Jon Willis wrote something debunking the idea of $/p being relevant. You should look it up! might learn something today!

godot10

Elliotte, briefly emerging from the foggy mist around Captain Underpants.

Side

Made me laugh. Good stuff. And no, I am not being sarcastic.

Last edited 6 months ago by Side
treevojo

Fantastic player.

Also plays with a fantastic Center and a fantastic winger.

no other team has 3 top 20 players on the same line.

Dee Dee

The fact that all three players on his line are only making $6 Million dollar salaries makes that possible.

Kind of interesting that Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnaks combined salaries at $19,666,666 comes in lower than McDavid/Draisaitl at $21 Million.

And Nuge will be looking for a raise and wanting MORE than what these three guys make ….

treevojo

Timing is everything.

Both Marchand and Bergeron signed their contracts after a few years of getting between 40 and 60ish points.

Pasta signed his contact buying up 2 ufa years after a single breakout year of 70 points.

theDjdj

Drai’s contract should have come in at closer to Pastrnak had Chia not overpaid for a small performance sample. That Chia’s estimation of that sample turned out to be correct is inconsequential. Bruins have done terrifically in securing their talent to good deals at the right time. That’s why Chia is currently polishing Doug Armstrong’s shoes.

Pastrnak is a talented player no doubt. But reducing points to a dollar value in a directly linear fashion is an oversimplification with little value.

Redbird62

Chia made lots of mistakes, both in Boston and even more so in Edmonton, but he signed Bergeron to his current contract. People thought Krejci was a huge overpay, but he has bounced back nicely the past few seasons.

OriginalPouzar

Lets not forget, Pasta signed for 6 years and Drai signed for 8

At the end of the 2022/23 season, when Pasta signs his next contract for massive money (more than Drai’s current AAV), Drai will be locked in for two more full seasons.

treevojo

They are the only line in the NHL that you could stick on the Canadian Olympic team and nobody would bat an eye.

** other then pasta not being Canadian of course **

OriginalPouzar

Tip says Lagesson not ready for tomorrow but Bear might be.

Munny

Under present protocol, doesn’t Bear have to go a week symptom-free?

Doesn’t jive with the “setback” statement date, but of course we’re not privy to all the details either.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know what the protocols are for return after a concussion.

Not to mention, we don’t know for certainty it was even a concussion or what the set back was – as you say, not privy to the all the details.

Munny

Ched Post-game Saturday night it was referred to as a concussion by Wilkins. And I’ve heard a few others, that was just the most recent.

leadfarmer

https://www.slavadoesamerica.com/russian-nhl-star-rips-putin-in-interview/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

translation of Panarins interview
If it’s too political please delete

Side

I am confused. I have read that “cancelling” someone is a “liberal” thing to do.

Does this mean Putin is a Liberal?!

Munny

That’s funny. Certainly there’s plenty of hypocrisy that can be pointed out. But one can also see why Panarin feels the way he does, and that he should be able to safely express it, just like the opposition should be able to here, an ability they also seem be losing.

Last edited 6 months ago by Munny
Side

There comes a point though where it’s no longer hypocrisy and it’s just how people are, no matter what side of the political spectrum you are.

I always laugh when people blame Liberals for “cancelling” people while seemingly ignoring the thousands of years of history of conservative institutions, like Christianity, who have been cancelling people regularly. In fact the Church had a special name for it – excommunication.

More recently, Republicans cancelling the likes of Kaepernick and pushing for boycotts on the companies supporting Kaepernick because he knelt during the anthem. Who can forget the angry conservatives smashing their coffee machines and burning their clothing apparel?

I remember Conservatives calling for Janet Jackson to be “cancelled” because Timberlake exposed her boob during the half time show.

Or calling for Obama to be cancelled because he wore a beige suit in the white house and used dijon mustard.

Again, I am not saying one political party does it more than other. It’s just how people are in general and is a human fault.

Munny

Which is why we supposedly have rights and rules against it, because humans will abuse those rules. Thus Janet wasn’t “cancelled”… unlike people today. But parties in power everywhere are moving against those rules. I think there’s more going on than we are seeing on the surface.

Side

Janet wasn’t cancelled in the same sense, largely because social media is more popularized and weaponized now then it was then, imo.

But Janet’s career did take quite the hit: https://www.eonline.com/ca/news/1010580/inside-janet-jackson-s-infamous-super-bowl-wardrobe-malfunction-and-its-even-more-complicated-aftermath

At the time: “As the NFL and MTV both immediately tried to absolve themselves of any culpability for the moment that registered over 540,000 complaints with the Federal Communications Commission,”

I don’t imagine a majority of those 540 000 complaints were liberals, but I could be wrong.

Nudity on television is typically a very conservative sticking point, though.

Munny

Perhaps you are using “social conservative” where you mean “religious person”.

Not that the two groups don’t have overlap, but again you are painting with an unnuanced brush.

A religious person can be pro-labor and intervention ecnomics. A classic liberal, who most likely would vote Republican today, is probably fine with nudity on TV.

Munny

I also think we need to be careful about painting with broad brushes like calling Christianity a conservative institution. That’s a pretty unnuanced view of 2000 years of history, during which religion has acted in both a progressive and a conservative manner.

That manner of “painting” has dominated conversations lately, where groups are placed into boxes that don’t represent their diverse history and composition.

godot10

So called progessively inclined people are no longer liberal. Liberalism is rule of law, freedom of expression, limited government, and free markets.

TheGreatBigMac

Excommunication is not “cancelling” someone, it is letting them know *they* have crossed a line and are no longer in communion with the Church and their soul is in peril. The person can come back any time they like if they amend their behavior or position so that they are in communion.

Side

There have been many examples in history of that power being wielded for political/personal reasons and not so much for the spiritual reasons, though.

Numenius

Lol. It’s unfortunate the left is sometimes called “liberal” as a whole when in reality parts of it are highly illiberal.

Side

Every year it seems our political parties and political party members and supporters seem less interested about the political ideologies they claim to champion and seem more interested in tribalism to the point it becomes my guy vs your guy, or you vs me.

I just want to return to a time where being conservative vs liberal was largely about economical differences.

But I’m sure there will be people who will tell me that time never existed because *liberals* or *conservatives* are to blame.

And I’m sure LT is ready to hit me with the STFU button so I’ll stop here.

Munny

And I’m sure LT is ready to hit me with the STFU button so I’ll stop here.

Agreed. We’ve done a pretty good job of staying civil, but there’s always the chance things will get out of hand. I got a couple of posts in before I saw this, so if you want to have a last word, go ahead, I will not respond. Thank you for the conversation.

Side

I had a post typed that was largely agreeing with you as I do see your point. But as you say, this could spiral out of control even if you and I both continue to discuss this topic cordially to no fault of our own.

Thanks for the convo!

Munny

Stauffer thinks we will see Jones-Bouch for one game at least in Van.

Doesn’t think we will see Bouchard coming out of the line-up

Reja

The Oilers are playing there best hockey in a year and Bouchard is one of the reasons why. Does anybody really think Tippett would mess with a winning formula just for shits and giggles. All it takes is a 3 game losing streak and he’s on the hot seat again.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think Tippett was on the “hot seat” earlier this year.

Yes, I do think that Tippett would swap Bouchard for Bear for a game if Bear is ready to go.

Of course, many would want all 4RD in the lineup and Rusty scratched but there is all but zero chance Tip would do that after this past weekend.

Melvis

 Be kind to the animals, my money is on the hyenas.

My money is on cockroaches…which already comprise about half the population.

godot10

The WEF is coming for the insects. They are going to “persuade” and “nudge” us to eat insects for protein, instead of beef, pork, and chicken.

wolf8888

I didn’t realize there were that many flames! 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of the Oilers getting Forsberg back, if the Oilers claim him on waivers, they can only send him to the taxi squad without further waivers if no other team claims him.

I’ve been stating that they can’t really keep 3 goalies on the active roster unless they waive Koekkoek. I think the Koekkoek injury may now allow it.

The Oilers currently have 13 forwards on the active roster, 8 d-men and 2 goalies.

Bear will be activated but Koekkoek will go to IR, keeping them at 8D.

They can run a full 12 forward roster, all 8 d-men and 3 goalies.

Koekkoek’s injury, essentially, is akin to waiving him for this purpose.

knighttown

Good info. I’m glad you study this stuff!

McNuge93

Yes, i had mentioned this same thing on yesterdays post. Just need waivers on a goalie to go our way next time.

OriginalPouzar

Rishaug advising that Jones is taking some reps with Bear.

Wonder if they are working together in case Bear is ready (and, if Bear is ready, Bouch may get a night off).

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Turris isn’t skating either (in addition to Drai and Neal) – it was noted that he got hurt in practice in a collision with Jones.

Drai is maintenance day but its fairly clear he’s a bit banged up.

Looks to me like:

Nuge/McDavid/Jesse
Kahun/Drai/Yamamoto
Neal (Nygard)/Haas/Chiasson
Ennis/Khaira/Archie

Nurse/Barrie
Russell/Larsson
Jones/Bouchard

Munny

Yup, like I was saying when he missed the last one, it’s not simply fatigue.

Last edited 6 months ago by Munny
OriginalPouzar

Per Gregor:

Jones paired with Bouchard at practice and Bear with Lagesson.

That Jones/Bouchard pairing should be fun to watch tomorrow night – hopefully they get some solid ice time at evens.

———-

Also per Gregor, Nygard is in Neal’s sport and Neal and Drai aren’t on the ice.

Seems to me that Drai is indeed likely banged up as that is a few skates he hasn’t participated in recently.

———–

Yamamoto is on the ice which is great.

McSorley33

Love to see Yamamoto on the ice.

Will very much admit – I am really excited to see Jones / Bouchard pairing.

Hope Tipp is patient has Jones has not played in a while and Bouchard is a raw rookie.

So, there will be some moments with them I am sure.

Munny

I don’t think people understand that Tippett feels the same way that they do about Barrie.

If he didn’t, Barrie would be sheltering Jones.

pts2pndr

Astute observation.

knighttown

Your assumption is that Jones/Bouchard are playing. Isn’t it just as likely that it’s Legs/Bear? I suppose it depends on the injury and if they are taking a regular spin at practice.

OriginalPouzar

Lags is ruled out for tomorrow – Bear looks like he might play.

I anticipate either:

Jones/Bear

OR

Jones/Bouchard

I assume, if Bear goes, most will throw vitriol over Bouchard sitting and Russell playing but there is zero chance (in my opinion) that Russell sits after his performance this past weekend.

fistycuff

Drai got a pretty rough ride from Pionk and Lowry in the Winnipeg games. Took a few hits in the Flames games as well…especially the first game. Glad he is getting some rest and heal time.

McSorley33

I get the concerns about rushing prospects….but Holloway is tearing the cover off the baseball here in the NCAA.

Not sure what point it would serve to come back to the NCAA next year.

AHL is the next step and it is in fact a developmental league. I doubt Kenny will rush Dylan if he is not excelling down on the farm.

So, I have no issue with Holloway getting some games in with the Condors this spring.

The AHL is where this young man will be next year.

Last edited 6 months ago by McSorley33
McNuge93

Yes it could potentially be a perfect development year. Great experience at World Jnr, lights up college, and then turns pro in the AHL for a few games. What a progression that would be. And a hard no to NHL games this year.

Munny

He might even play at the next WJC depending on how the AHL stint is going and the injury situation on the main squad.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think he’ll be eligible.

The player must have his 20th birthday in the year the tournament ends (or be younger, to a limit).

Holloway turns 20 in September so turns 21 in the year the 2021/22 tournament ends.

leadfarmer

Well looks like Panarin pissed off Vladimir

McSorley33

You many want to fill the viewer in with some more details here…

McSorley33

Thanks

leadfarmer

“Beat up 18 year old girl in a bar which set a pattern of evil behavior which culminated in anti-Putin statements “ from ex coach
Well if that doesn’t sound fabricated.

Side

Why did someone poison Panarin’s tea?

Munny

No Panarin alleged Vladdy did, and now Panarin is being accused of domestic assault in the Moscow news.

SoCaloil

I shall have the Novichok Tea!

John Chambers

Tyson Barrie is who we thought he is, and probably the best version of it. I’m going to sit back and enjoy what a 70-point (over 82) defenseman looks like, because I’ve never seen one as an Oiler fan.

And hopefully off that scoring success Tyson Barrie signs a big deal with the Vegas Knights this summer, providing them with a puck-moving, light-defending boat anchor contract, closing their competition window shut.

fistycuff

Good post John. Yes. Most Oiler fans were enamoured by this player for a couple of reasons when he was with Colorado. First reason being the leftorium. We drooled at the thought of a right handed shot defenceman who could play on our power play because most of our PP forwards and dmen were lefties. Second reason was because we wanted a right shot defenceman to pair with Klef who could put up some points 5V5.

Since those long evenings when everything Oilers was from the left side, a few small miracles happened (in a relatively short time of 2 years) which have changed the view slightly making Barrie not as desirable as he once was for this team. First, we drafted and developed a couple of nice young right shot defenceman in Bear and Bouchard, who basically render Barries skills no longer required once these two kids get a few more games under their belt. But secondly and prolly more importantly, the left defence side also got deeper. (Klefbom getting hurt weakens my point here a bit) but nonetheless Nurse has taken a huge step and Caleb/Broberg are coming which will give the team scoring from the left side too!

The current Defence as it is can score with or without Barrie. The team won’t need his 60-70 pts and huge contract moving forward for the reasons listed above. So while it is a pleasure to see the scoring, and roving, and chaos that Barrie brings, the contract just wont fit moving forward. If the Oilers resign him, it would block the youth and take away cap space unless the youth gets traded away.

As much as I would like to see Tyson play for us in the playoffs, I would also like to see a nice return for Tyson at the deadline. It would be a shame to lose this valuable asset for nothing. Predicting the future can be hard…so for now…..Go Tyson Go!

OriginalPouzar

I agree with most of this post and well written – thank you.

Barrie is material on the current team with Bear being a sophomore (and injured) and Bouchard being a rookie. Taking some “production pressure” away from those two, in particular Bouchard, is helpful in the development of those players while winning hockey games at the same time.

With that said, next year is different as Bouchard should be further developed and ready for a legit material role. I don’t see the need for Barrie at the contract he is likely to require/demand. I would prefer Larsson at a shorter term and a much lower cap hit – 2-3 years X $2.75M (give or take).

Bear, Bouchard, Larsson plus cheap established 4RD cover (Matt Benning for example).

——–

At the same time, I see all but zero chance of Barrie being “sold” at the deadline unless the season falls off the rails big time.

I don’t see Holland selling any particular roster UFA let alone a d-man. If we learned anything in Feb 2020, its how much Holland values depth on D.

Not to mention, we went fro 9D to 6D pretty darn quick this season. Now Lagesson and Bear are coming back but that depth is, and has been, key.

Munny

I think the strat at the deadline will depend somewhat on the injury situation at that time, and how many reps Bouch gets in before then, and how he looks on those reps.

Partly too it will depend on how good of a contender Holly thinks he has.

The TD is looking like a No Trade Deadline with quarantine buggering things up. One could look at it from the point of view that not selling a player is almost like adding a player.

Be nice to pull a Bergevin and get an asset out of this though…

jeetz

While that could play out like that, I’m not sure that is still the case. There will still be the COVID flat cap and a lot of teams are worse than they were before this season started, plus teams with space are having to deal with their own RFAs and UFAs. If Barrie continues his torrid pace, it’s not unreasonable to think the Oilers resign him at a modest increase for 1 more year, say 5 mil x 1 year

leadfarmer

I think GSAA together with QS% is way better evaluator of goalers than save percentage

BornInAGretzkyJersey

IIRC, Woodguy posted on Twitter that via GSAA and HDSV% Gibson is one of if not the top goalie in the NHL over the past 4-5 seasons.

It’s certainly an interesting way to introduce a control for tenders playing behind poor teams.

YKOil

I think the parsing and use of heat-map data represents the next frontier for stats re: goalie and d-man effectiveness.

Right now we have that data for shots and goals and with that data a fair amount of work can be done – and probably is being done by the teams and the for-profit sector – on different SV% numbers based on quality of competition, shot location, game circumstance (penalties, powerplay), etc.

The next step then is “how that puck got to where the shot was taken”, and once that data gets developed the role of defensemen can start to be evaluated (the ‘who was in the picture’ information). This also helps with goalie evaluation as you get a better sense of how they deal with puck movement.

Put all that together, add in the PuckIQ stuff, and you start to get the difference between Meloche and Dryden.

After that it is all about the dance between what the data says and what the eyes see.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Heat maps are great. Getting to see more of the data you suggest is like adding another dimension. Great post.

Clarkenstein

Holloway to the Oil or even AHL after the season? That’s old style Oil management thinking. Percolate LT. Percolate.

PennersPancakes

If his college season is over at the very least an AHL PTO would be worthwhile (assuming it doesnt impact NCAA eligibility). Holloway is currently scoring at a 1.5ppg clip, while an extra season in college likely wouldnt hurt its not out of the question to see him in the AHL next year. Definitely more bold to see him in the NHL but not crazy.

In 2014 a 6 01 left handed center was drafted 15th overall and put up 47 in 35 in his d+1 season before being called up to the NHL for a 45 point rookie season. Eerily similar, did Dylan Larkin need to percolate more?

Elgin R

I will counter with the example of one Jesse Puljujarvi. He was not ready at 20 – mentally or physically. JP was bigger and a better skater than the young men he had played against but was still not man-strong. Now he comes back having grown into his body and can do the things he needs to do on the ice.

Holloway is old for his draft year, but still does not turn 20 until September. He too needs time to get his man-strength. Playing against young men in college is not the same as fighting Blake Wheeler for the puck. Leave him in college or the AHL next season.

PennersPancakes

Jesse was rushed and not put in a position to succeed. Between a change in ice size, culture, language, not having a proper transition to NA with TMac was a bad approach.

I suppose the same thing could happen to Holloway but if Holloway closes out this season at his current pace what more does he have to prove in the Big 10? Its obviously up to the GM and the player to consider their future interests but from a purely hockey perspective Holloway should at least be in the AHL next season from a talent perspective. If theres concerns over the Condors being absolute ass and/or traveling concerning the pandemic thats understandable but he is making his presence known. I think a lot would ride on how a possible end of season performance in the AHL/NHL could look. The main question mark with Holloway was his offense, he is already a pro at doing the little things right.

Bulging Twine

Just for clarification

It was his draft +2 season that he played in the NHL

Only played AHL playoffs in his draft +1 season (after college season was over)

Last edited 6 months ago by Bulging Twine
OriginalPouzar

I can’t imagine Holloway playing pro hockey games in the AHL (even on a PTO) and keeping his college eligibility. College players can’t even attend training camp without paying for their own way. I can’t imagine even using a stick provided by the Condors, let alone receiving a per diem, etc. being allowed vis-a-vis college eligiblity.

Playing pro games will end his college career – I’m 99% certain on this (although am open to be proven wrong).

————

A month ago, I would have said he been a Wisonsin for 2021/22, almost certainly.

Now, it seems like he will be a pro hockey player in 2021/22 and the likely question is if they want to burn a year of his ELC for him finishing the season in the AHL or if they want his ELC to start in 2021/22.

There would be potential benefits to burning a year of that ELC, his second contract comes earlier with him less established and is likely cheaper. The cap hit goes up earlier but it doesn’t go up as much.

As long as he doesn’t spend 40 games (pro rated for the short season) on the NHL roster to vest a year towards free agency – which he won’t.

PennersPancakes

Thanks for the insight, forgot how strict the NCAA can be.

leadfarmer

Does he want another NCAA season when Caufield and Weissbach and Pelton Byce wont be back? He would be the only one out of top 5 scorers on the team to return

Woogie63

Hello Winnipeg, I am peaking at your three goalies on the roster, one on your taxi squad and two good prospects. You look a little bloated these days.

Primetime

I think they are just waiting for Comrie’s quarantine period to be over and then they will make their move

Pouzar

Devils to welcome back fans at 10% capacity.

pts2pndr

So your typical Panthers numbers.😉

Oil2Oilers

Is there a website that reports a Dangerous Fenwick For based Save Percentage. If it has not been christened yet, and DFFSV% is a mouthful, can we call it the Tide%

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

@knighttown One of the weaknesses of the advanced stats is the impact of those damned score effects.

On the note of score effects, I looked into the Oilers’ 5-on-5 numbers when within 1 goal and was pleasantly surprised by what I saw!

Oilers as a team:

54.1% GF (10th)
53.4% xGF (8th)
49.9% FF (15th)
47.8% SCF (25th)
57.8% HDCF (3rd)

Very interesting disparity between SCF and HDCF numbers and speaks to either a system that’s designed for such or a systematic error in reporting of chances. While the latter is possible, such an error would de-legitimize all the data I use on NST so I won’t entertain that possibility too much 🙂

Individual players:

Draisaitl 12-5 goals w/ 50.0% xGF
McDavid 15-10 w/ 66.8%
Nuge 15-8 w/ 65.7%
Puljujarvi 7-6 w/ 65.6%
Neal 4-4 w/ 54.4%

Lagesson 5-1 w/ 60.5%
Bear 9-4 w/ 66.1%
Nurse 21-12 w/ 58.7%
Jones 3-3 w/ 59.9%
Larsson 9-8 w/ 50.4%

MushedPeas

Thanks

Munny

The Scoring Chance data is a mess, as is the Giveaway/Takeaway data. Even shots too have been wonky.

Pouzar

Caleb Jones 85 min AWAY from McDavid this year:

CF%: 51.5

That is absurdly good.

Next best is Bear at 47.06

Cassandra

Another great post. People harp a lot about quality of competition, top pairing D or top four D, yadayadayada.

Quality of teammates is more important than quality of competition.

Pouzar

Yup. Bein sayin it for years now QoT > QoC

McSorley33

Great stat.

This player last played a game in January.

Hate to see injuries – but Caleb Jones needs to play hockey.

It will be good to see him back in the lineup.

knighttown

One of the weaknesses of the advanced stats is the impact of those damned score effects. The Calgary game is a perfect example. When McDavid is choosing to dump and change on 3-on-2’s you know that everything else happening around that time doesn’t matter. Like, at all.

I used to see score effects quantified in my travels around the ‘sphere more but it seems to have fallen by the wayside. I wonder why?

I would assume Corsi is more affected by score effects as teams allow tons of shots from the outside? But those games do also often go from 6-1 to 6-3 so maybe goal differential is impacted too? Anyone aware of the degree of difference?

It would be easy to look at these Corsi numbers and imply that Bear and Jones (55% Corsi) would be significant upgrades over Russell and Barrie (45%) but this 8-and-2 run Bear/Jones have missed has to have scrambled the results a bit. Larsson was caved in metrics last game but was absolutely terrific.

I think many are too quick to rely soley on the chart you posted above and forget to add context. Take Tyson Barrie as an example. He gets eviscerated by one poster in particular but the dude is playing 22 minutes a night on a team that has just gone 8-and-2, against the best in the division and is second in the league in defensemen scoring. It’s fair to say he may regress. It’s fair to say he’s a touch chaotic. It’s fair to even say you wouldn’t want to pay him long term. It’s fair to say that long term Bear may be a better fit with Nurse. But to call for him to be scratched or traded is utter nonsense and even asking for Bouch to replace him on PP1 or Bear to be reunited with Nurse before a regression seems like you’ve dug a hole and now you’re continuing to dig deeper.

Elgin R

Agreed. I don’t know what fans thought they were getting when Holland signed Barrie, but it was not Drew Doughty. Barrie is what he is and he is doing that well for the Oilers. Where he plays can, and should be, a discussion point. Is the TEAM better with Bear back with Nurse and Barrie down the lineup? Or, is it better to leave Barrie with Nurse and have Bear ‘improve’ another pairing. Who cares, as long as the Oilers keep playing well (winning is good too).

Cassandra

Great post. Score effects is an important puzzle, and a great example not simply of why context is needed to understand empirical data, but also theory. It is one thing to know that score effects happen (in general) it is another to understand why. It isn’t a law of nature, there is a mechanism that is operating, and without understanding the mechanism we can’t understand the numbers.

Theory is everything.

MushedPeas

For all that I’ve read this blog for decades, have yet to learn how the corgis are fed (and so on). Rely on you fine folks.

I know that it whittles down the sample ever further, but can’t the stats be specific not only to game state (5v5) but to, uh, score state? limited to minutes where the score is even or deviates by less than two goals?

Munny

Yes, and that is preceisely what people do. They check different score states to see if the data is materially affected. If you head over to NST you will notice they have a drop down box for score state that allows you to filter results.

Pouzar

What I don’t get about the Barrie hate is that isn’t this the guy a lot of people here wanted when he was with the Avalanche? A roving Offensive stud who leaks Oil (NPI) on the defensive side? A lot of verbal about how Barrie is that same offensive force now as he was back then. Now I don’t agree we should be re-signing this player but I quite like what he brings at the moment.

godot10

Chris Pronger could play the toughs with an AHL defenseman as his partner. “Nurse effects” does not make a soon-to-be-30something Barrie worthy of a new contract.

Barrie makes far too many bad decisions per game situationally. Bouchard can do everything Barrie can do (or he will soon). As a defensemen, he is a point parasite. He is not adding offense, he is just stealing it from wingers.

With Koekkook out, Bouchard might start killing penalties this week, ahead of Barrie, if Lagesson isn’t back.

And quit making stuff up. Nobody has said Barrie should be scratched.

Last edited 6 months ago by godot10
Shane

‘Point parasite’ and ‘stealing from the wingers’ sounds like it’s out of the Rickithebear Math book.

godot10

I believe Dellow first examined whether points from D was an important metric, and talked about the need to examine offense from D that was truly generated by the particular defenseman, and not just offense that was “stolen” from wingers.

Sierra

Which wingers are you accusing Barrie of stealing from? I thought RNH isn’t helping McDavid and the hobbits aren’t helping Drai?

Eh Team

Godot is a disciple of Ricki analysis…

He’s not stealing points from forwards, but he’s functioning as a 4th forward. That’s how you score more goals in the modern NHL, by outmanning the defensive team in the dangerous attacking zones. For example, JP’s goal in the first Calgary game was all Barrie.

And that’s why you need to play Barrie with scoring lines. He’s a liability playing with grinders since they collectively they don’t create enough to make up what they give away.

But, not saying you should sign Barrie, either. I agree that you don’t with Bouchard and Bear on the roster. I’d say Bouchard is full stop better all around right now than Barrie. Bear too obviously.

Elgin R

A special assist should have been awarded to Geoff Ward for putting Lucic out against the Oilers’ first line and d-pairing. Never gets old watching Looch trying not to fall down (or get up like on Saturday night’s goal).

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The way he waves his stick in the general direction of a puck carrier like it’s some kind of magic wand will never get old either. Well, now that he does it as the opposition.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’ll take this opportunity to note that Nuge did the yeoman’s work gaining the zone before dishing off to an open Barrie once he was double teamed.

godot10

How can I be a disciple of Ricki analysis, when I have been the biggest booster of Nurse, for like forever. I’ve bashed Russell, and all through that first season, was making the argument, that he should not be signed to that 4 year deal, just like I am arguing against the same for Barrie now.

I like Caleb Jones.

Sierra

Stealing points from wingers. What a ridiculous notion.

OriginalPouzar

In every Barrie conversation you bring up a new contract for him and a re-signing.

I have seen very few people on here advocating for a re-signing of Barrie at this point.

There is a big difference talking about Barrie’s play on the current team over recent weeks and talking about re-signing him for term and big money.

Given the #pointparasite comments and the PP sucks because of Barrie’s ego comments, etc. it fairly easy to infer that you think he’s a net negative and the team would be better if he’s scratched.

——–

Personally, I have zero interest in signing Barrie for term for $5M plus but, at the same time, I acknowledge his play on the Oilers in the 2021 season and a material positive impact that he has had – a big part of the current 9-2 run. He makes this team better and he helps allow for Bouchard to not be given too many minutes and too much responsibility too early.

knighttown

I have absolutely seen lineups with the 3rd pairing defence as something like Jones-Bouchard/Barrie. I’ve seen talk of alternating nights off for the 4 RD too.

I guess my question remains, is one trying to be “right” or are we trying to learn because the more you say “stealing points” the more I hear “I’ve made my stand and will defend it to the end”.

Barrie has been terrific offensively and good enough if unique defensively (and Nurse has been exceptional). Why not say that but add “signing him to 4x6M would be a mistake?

pts2pndr

Barrie has been okay with Nurse and found lacking defensively with all other left shot D. This has a limiting effect on what the coach can do in game re adjustments. If our second pairing left D was Klefbom no problem. My thinking is anything over 4 x 4 in the flat cap would not be a good idea. Barrie definitely has value played in the correct role. His defensive deficiencies and age limit his value in terms of both dollars and term. I believe there are teams that may be willing to go higher than the Oilers should for a number of reasons. Therefore unless the Oilers get a discount contract Barrie should be allowed to walk. Maybe we can get a late round pick for some team to negotiate with him early.

OriginalPouzar

Taking away that I don’t think Barrie will sign for that contact, would you rather have Barrie at 4 X $4M or Larsson at 2 X $2.75M given the current cap structure and roster construction?

Bear
Barrie
Bouchard

vs. 

Bear
Bouchard
Larsson

I think Larsson is an important player on this team and, until Lagesson or Samorukov are able to play 20-22 minutes of that type of game……

jp

As a defensemen, he is a point parasite. He is not adding offense, he is just stealing it from wingers.

I’m not sure whether you aren’t aware, or are discounting it for some other reason…

But there’s quite a bit of evidence that Barrie adds offense.

godot10

Colorado didn’t miss him. Didn’t sign him and got rid of him as soon as they didn’t need a warm body. Toronto doesn’t miss him.

Barrie is a warm body. An offensive version of Kris Russell. Fatally flawed small D who will do in a pinch.

jp

Right, Colorado just got rid of him for nothing in return… And Toronto, well agree he wasn’t what they needed.

In any case, those things have nothing to do with my comment or your assertions about Barrie’s valueless offense.

Carry on.

Redbird62

Your first paragraph is just utter nonsense. Colorado had him for 8 seasons, on 3 contracts, the last two negotiated by Joe Sakic. The last contract with them was 4 seasons at $5.5 million. That is completely the opposite of just waiting to get rid of him. A full season before his contract expired, they traded him (and Kerfoot) for Nazim Kadri so that is not just getting rid of him. The guy is far from perfect, but he is filling a valuable roll on Edmonton’s defense right now. I am sure the Oilers are in a wait and see mode to determine how hard they will pursue him at the end of the season. And if the Oilers are in the playoffs which looks good right now but a long ways to go, he is not going anywhere at the trade deadline.

ashley

I don’t think “Barrie is a good Dman” follows from “He is on a team that has gone 8-2 in the last 10” and “He is one of the top scoring defenders”.

Defenders must, above all, be able to defend or they will give away as much as they get, and usually give away more.

Teams go 8-2 all the time with bad players on their rosters. One poor performing player does not make a bad team, unless it’s the G.

Many defenders would have high point totals playing the minutes Barrie is playing with the teammates he is playing with. It’s the CMD/RNH/Drai power play pump. I think other defenders would actually have more points and the team would have more goals, but Barrie insists on shooting the puck from the blueline instead of moving it quickly to create a better chance.

In fact, he doesn’t really do much other than shoot the puck a lot which is more of a liability when you have CMD/RNH/Drai buzzing around in the ozone. Barrie is the last guy to touch the puck too frequently. He should see himself as a pivot through which the puck is switched from one side to the other.

Barrie would do well to reflect on this quote: “When you have Michael Jordan on your team, you give him the ball”. In this case there is more than one Michael Jordan.

Stats, carefully quoted, can lend credence to notions that are not actually true. I’m not impressed with him at all.

Last edited 6 months ago by ashley
OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure how Barrie’s point total can be stated as a “PP pump” when he’s tied for 7th in 5 on 5 points with the likes of Carlsson and Theodore (1 point behind 3rd and 2 points behind the league lead).

Barrie was criticized early on the PP for not shooting enough, and the coach even mentioned the same thing. Yes, he is shooting more on the PP than he was in January, however, he is not, to my eye, “insisting on shooting the puck” but does so during certain opportunities and mostly distributes. The coaching staff has clearly coached him to shoot the puck on the PP when the shot is there and doing so creates chaos, chances and goals and also opens up other plays.

Redbird62

Since Barrie got untracked, the Oilers have been scoring an average of 4.08 goals per game. Last year, the Oilers averaged 3.12 g/g and even starting with the DRY line, averaged 3.58 g/g. Its almost all coming at 5 on 5, since the OIlers are scoring 2.92 goals per 60 this season vs 2.42 last season. A big part of this is attributable to Barrie (and Nurse) as smart play making defenseman clearly enhance a team’s offensive ability starting behind their blue line through to the offensive zone. He’s not stealing many points from forwards.

BONE207

Good to know that this site will still be around 50 years after Lowetide. What to feed the hyenas…? There’s always a lot of crow around here.

pts2pndr

Oh contraire! Many of us have had to eat crow hence making it a rare bird due supply dwindling

tsunami

“au” contraire 😉

Elgin R

Hard to determine if Skinner is playing Ok this year without watching the games. Goalies are voodoo, usually take many pro years to develop and who they play behind should be noted in any discussion.

Skinner is playing behind a defense group that has one decent prospect in Niemelainen (LD) and the rest looking like AHL-lifers, though we may soon see what, if anything, Lennstrom can bring. The best defense prospects are not with the team and are all LD. The only signed RD prospect is ‘distant bell’ Kemp. Can Holland sign Kesselring before he does a ‘Marino’? Holland has drafted one d-man (Broberg – LD) out of the 12 picks he has made for this team. This deficiency should be addressed at the next draft (RD Ceulemans – Brooks Bandits currently ranked 27th by The Hockey Writers and 18th on the NHL site).

OriginalPouzar

Kesselring is having an offensive explosion the last couple of weeks but I think he is another full NCAA season away from the org signing him.

There is signing risk with this player as we likely won’t warrant an NHL contract until he’s heading in to his senior year and about a year away from free agency.

I expect him back at NorthEastern next season.

There is signing risk here but I was heartened listening to an interview with his dad, Casey, a few months ago, who spoke highly of the Oilers system and I infered that Michael and his family do not have an issue with him signing in to the org.

Of course, that doesn’t mean a ton.

pts2pndr

Always bet on the Giraffes they think at a higher level.😎

Halfwise

Even though they play farther down the roster, I like the Retrievers because they always bring it.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Can never go wrong with a Gator patrolling the moat.

Wonder Llama

There was a time I was sure that Dubnyk + Brossoit would the goalie tandem for the next decade or more. Still a bit wistful for it.

“Be kind to the animals, my money is on the hyenas” strikes me as profound and strangely moving in a way I can’t explain this Monday morning.

Elgin R

Drafting goalies has not been this teams’ problem. It is properly developing and keeping them that has been the issue. I expect more now that a pro (Holland) is in the chair. The collection of ChiaPet, MacT, Stumblellinni and ‘I-know-something-about-winning’ really hurt this team.

pts2pndr

There was a misconception in the league that drafted players were free and with an unlimited supply. That thinking has changed and the focus has changed to development. Some organizations were quicker to adjust to the new reality. The Oilers were not as quick as some due to their early success. Some teams seem to still not accept development as a necessity and or can’t justify the expense. Teams that don’t develop their own talent are doomed to wander in the desert of mediocrity.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Actually ChiaPete’s drafting — especially as it pertains to goalies — is one of the reasons there’s a bit of a light at the end of the tunnel.

Recall they moved up at the draft in consecutive years to acquire Skinner then Rodrigue. Hotly debated at the time as a waste of draft capital, verdict still yet to be determined.

Elgin R

I really, really want Rodrigue to make it. French-Canadian goalie taken with the Montreal Canadiens’ pick. Oh, sweet karma please come to visit.