The Oilers enter tonight’s game five points clear of the Calgary Flames for the final playoff spot in the Canadian division. A strong week against the Ottawa Senators could (Flames play the Habs twice this week) give Edmonton an even bigger lead on the provincial rivals.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Three Oilers prospects form hottest line in the AHL
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top 20 prospects, trade deadline edition
- Lowetide: Why are some Oilers fans hesitant to give Darnell Nurse his due?
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers improve enough to beat TML it in May?
- Lowetide: Top trade targets for the Oilers at the 2021 deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021 trade value rankings
- Lowetide: February report cards for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Difficult season for trio of Oilers prospects playing in the AHL
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi must be on the Oilers expansion protected list after breakout
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ 2020 trade deadline splash: What we learned, a year later
- Lowetide: Revisiting our preseason predictions for the Oilers after 20 games
- Lowetide: If Dylan Holloway turns pro this spring, will it be with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Could an Ethan Bear trade improve the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg and the Oilers’ Leftorium
- Lowetide: Jujhar Khaira, a waiver reset and the Oilers’ future at No. 3 centre
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
OILERS AFTER 27 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 10-15-2, 22 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2016-17: 14-11-2, 30 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017-18: 11-14-2, 24 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2018-19: 13-12-2, 28 points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in 2019-20: 16-8-3, 35 points; goal differential +10
- Oilers in 2020-21: 15-11-0, 30 points; goal differential +2
This year’s team has a chance to stretch out the lead on most of McDavid’s past this week, but beware the Sens of March. Edmonton has a 4-0-0 record against Ottawa so far this year, with an 18-10 goal differential edge. I don’t believe they’ll win all three games this week.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Calgary (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: Ottawa, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary, Calgary (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Montreal, Montreal, Montreal (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-6-1, 19 points in 16 games
- Current results: 1-2-0, 2 points in three games
The early portion of the month is the time to be gathering points, with the lean times likely to be the five-game road trip to Montreal and Toronto at the end of the month. At the very least, I think the Oilers have to average a point per game this month. If they do, Edmonton will reach April with 44 points in 39 games. That projects to 63 points, probably a playoff spot.
THE 2020-21 OILERS
This is five on five per 60 (forwards), Puck IQ’s DFF% at five on five (defense) and overall save percentage (goalies).
The lines are going to change again, so I’m not terribly worried about the coaching stacking one line in practice. In reality, the second line doesn’t have enough outscoring talent to suggest a positive goal differential. It goes south from there.
On defense, the big question surrounds how to get Evan Bouchard into the every night lineup. No answers here, summer free agency likely solves the issue.
SENS AT THE DRAFT
Ottawa has been outstanding at the draft table from the beginning. Late-round picks in the 1990’s (Pavol Demitra, Daniel Alfredsson) and the 2000’s (Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau) have given the organization an advantage because homegrown talent is considerably less expensive for the first seven seasons.
You know what’s funny about Ottawa’s depth picks? They were all highly successful at the time of draft and could have been chosen by anyone who was paying attention. Alfredsson was 21 on his draft day, had just scored 20 goals in the SEL (now SHL) and was playing a strong, aggressive North American style of game. The previous season, Alfredsson had scored just one goal, so his spike was sudden and not yet universally known. A part-time scout in Sweden, Lasse Lilja, alerted Sens director of player personnel John Ferguson (Sr) about him and Ottawa grabbed him.
Mark Stone took some luck. Thought too slow in his draft season, and having delivered a disappointing season (his season at 16 implied there would be more, but a broken thumb early and a concussion late cost him part of his season at 17), he dropped from No. 53 to No. 119 on the final Central Scouting list.
Ottawa grabbed him in the sixth round. Edmonton would draft Tyler Pitlick (ranked No. 18 NA), Curtis Hamilton (ranked No. 42) and Ryan Martindale (ranked No. 27 NA). Stone was 6.02, 188. Stone is a grand player, but his numbers and late concussion were a risk. Luck is part of the draft. Ottawa has enjoyed its share.
My current favourite is a guy named Drake Batherson, taken in the fourth round of the 2017 draft. Mammoth shot, he has nine goals and 18 points in 27 games, slightly more than Kailer Yamamoto, who the Oilers took in the first round, same season.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we start the week with lots of Oilers talk as we tee up tonight’s big game. At 10:20, I’ll have five questions for Tyler, and at 10:40 will be joined by Canadian Women & Sport CEO Allison Sandmeyer for International Women’s Day. Jason Gregor from the Jason Gregor Show pops in at 11 to talk about lines and pairings and the importance of this week. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
….That was a really long shift by Drai at the end of the game, finally got off with about 15 seconds to go…..made me nervous..again. Gotta shorten those at key times….
Oil are 8-2 in one goal games. The close ones. The kind you have to learn how to win.
They are better at protecting leads this year – credit: Tippet
Nice to get a win, could have killed that game off in the first ten minutes of the second but credit to Ottawa they refused to go away. If they face Daccord again they need to elevate the puck, he sealed off the bottom of the net very well but he went down often and early, left a lot to shoot at high. Think that might be what Chiasson was saying to the guys on the bench after his goal.
McDrai and Yama together is like having a powerplay but if it’s gonna work the RNH line needs to provide more pressure. I think RNH and Puljujärvi had some moments where it looked they could work off each other but Ennis was a bad fit on that line. RNH and Puljujärvi gives enough cover defensively that the third player can be a pure offense player. Shame about the two week quarantine because it would be a great spot to break in Marody or Benson. A skill line with good help defensively. And McDrai getting all the attention so you get slightly kinder matchups. With how Marody is shooting in the A I’d probably try him first tbh.
Loved seeing Jesse reverse hitting guys, as a swede it gave me a Peter Forsberg but in Mats Sundin’s body vibe, if he can start doing like Forsberg by reverse hitting while looking for passing lanes that would be a beauty tool to add to his toolbox.
Your last paragraph is so well said. Also I want to say I appreciate every time you add . He did reverse twice, but fell over with the player attacking. Really excited to see when he can do what we think are asking.
Apparently he plays better when he smiles. Beauty of a young kid, finding his way.
Update: from Hunter1909’s Death March Regular Season 2021™
(since 2014)
With Oilers on pace for a 66 point finish, here are the current leaders in the fantastic Death March game which might pay out to all winners at the end of the season.
Jaxon; Tips; Oil Clog; thegreatbigmac; Sam Elliot; Je2.0; Wolf8888; unca miltie
FRIENDLY NOTICE TO OUR HATERS: We understand that some of you want to press the “-” button and make us look bad. With this in mind, we at Death March™ are offering you the chance, tonight, to either vote “-” and we can run the same number of Death March™ Updates as you vote”-” … or else you vote “+” and we promise to keep off of Lowetide for as many days as the “+” amounts to.
If you have had problems understanding the above paragraph, you’re not alone.
Meanwhile, anyone who wants to take their beefs to a truly open forum can post basically anything they like to say by following the link below:
http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com
So Hunter I was going to post about what an asshole i thought you were being lately.
Would you rather I post it here, or on your deathmarch website?
When exactly did you hold a contrary opinion?
WTF, I’m in the elite group leading Death March and you spell my 2.0 name wrong?
Better get the Team on it.
Btw, I voted ‘-‘ cause I kinda enjoy the updates.
Geez. Someone had to get shot over that mistake.
Enjoy the game!
Appreciate the team taking appropriate action. Cheers.
I just know I’m tied for the lead so keep up the good work 🙂 haha
Keep posting, or not at all.
Also, BTW
I’m still not listed on the site with my prediction of a Jagr and an Eager.
Points: 68
Goals: 55
Death March™ could even end up with prizes for the winner(s).
Keep reminding us. If 68 points wins, and you don’t remind us, then you can’t expect Death March™ to be responsible.
Thank you for your cooperation
Gaudette with an absolute rocket ties the game up with less than a minute left.
Canucks 2-1 in a shootout.
Now 4 out of 5 against the best 3 teams in the division.
Demko .968 and his 4th straight win.
Lol
weak bait
Happy for Demko, hope he keeps playing well.
4 out of 5 against the 3 best teams? I’m not sure what that stat is referring to?
They’re
2-2 in OT/SO
2-3 against Toronto
1-1-1 against Winnipeg
1-3 against Edmonton
2-4-1 against Montreal
Last 5 games:
VCR 4 WPG 0
WPG 5 VCR 2
VCR 3 TOR 1
VCR 4 TOR 2
VCR 2 MTL 1
ahh, I missed that. Good for them, glad they beat Toronto and Winnipeg.
I personally wouldn’t consider Montreal one of the better teams but I had them missing the playoffs from the start of the season
Well, they are in third place by points percentage which is critical in a shortened season so until someone knocks them off, they’re one of the top 3 in the division.
They’re also 11-13 in actual W/L (taking away overtime)
And 3-3-5 in their last 11. Most of their wins coming off of Vancouver/Ottawa when they were struggling
I believe Calgary and Vancouver are better teams
You’d have to be a pretty pathetic jock sniffer to post about a team sporting a .448 halfway through the schedule.
Imagine if their goalie sucked or if they had a shitty one signed for three years.
In his last 10 games Demko has a .935 save percentage and a GAA of 1.91
Holtby is signed for two years not three.
Holtby .893…Koskinen .899.
Their contracts expire at the same time.
Koskinen’s cap hit is $4.5 million…Hotlby’s cap hit is $4.3 million.
The difference being Demko is 25 years old.
Edmonton’s best goaltender is 38.
And the “next one”…Alex Stalock is 33 and hasn’t played a game in almost a year.
Sniff that.
This is awfully defensive for a fella that claims he isn’t a fan of the Canucks.
So what you’re saying is… EDM is poised with upcoming cap space to take advantage of an historic UFA goalie market next offseason and VCR is locked into goaltending mediocrity?
Demko is actually 0.916 sv% in 18g (per hockeydb), for what it’s worth. Good, but nowhere near the platitudes you posit.
This is below the 0.925 sv% in 12gp (per hockeydb) of the ancient goalie employed by EDM. But sample sizes only matter when you’re constructing the narrative. Right?
Also, you’re the first and only one here proclaiming Stalock as “the next one.” Nice way to tangentially shit on his health issues, when Demko’s stalled development due to concussions was sacrosanct over the last few years. I’m sure you can find your coat on the way out.
If Demko/Holtby were so good, VCR wouldn’t be wallowing in the divisional basement with no hope.
No.
I’m saying Koskinen’s and Hotlby’s contracts expire on the same day so there is no advantage.
Smith’s save percentage is on its way down regressing to his career save percentage while Demko’s is on the way up.
Both Koskinen and Holtby seem to be going over a cliff.
If Stalock isn’t the next one…who is?
VCR is not in the basement no matter how much you might wish it to be.
They played very poor defensively as a team in the first 18-20 games of the season and now that they have had some rest after playing the most games in the league in a very short time have been very good for the last 7-8 games.
They may be too far back to make the playoffs but it’s going to be interesting as the Oilers embark on the schedule from hell in the last two weeks of march.
Vancouver just might catch them especially when they get their best player back from injury…Pettersson has missed the last 3 games which they have won all 3.
In a 56 game season.
Nice.
@BatchHockey
·
7m
Travis Green on Quinn Hughes’ minutes tonight: I was surprised. We were trying to get him up to 40 minutes. *chuckles* #Canucks
@Sportsnet650
Hughes logged 30:21 TOI.
#greenjacket
I don’t get it, is Quinn in Bryson’s vest pocket?
try harder 🙂
Blah blah blah
Who?
Canucks are done.
6 points back with two more games played – well past “US Thanksgiving” and pat the half way mark of the year. Also, well back in regulation wins, the first tiebreak.
If the team holding the playoff spot was anyone other than the Oilers, this woul be acknowledged.
Is that the kind of slot play on Yamamoto’s goal by Chabot that would have Ricki calling him a non-championship core player?
Or on the Draisait goal because he was simply on the ice?
#countingstats
Looking at the replay (again) on the first goal, why on earth does MK have his glove hand facing toward his body?
I’m far from a goalie expert but he’s got to have his hand out and facing the puck to have success, no?
This angle might be better:
.
.
.
Thanks for proving my point.
At no time was MK ready for the shot with his glove hand. It was always pointed at his body, presenting the most minimal of target to the puck.
MK needs to improve his glove hand. Again. I thought he’d fixed it after the last time. Shit.
agreed… he was nowhere near ready
Easy follow up for Rishaug, is what kind of success does it take for the team to have success again with the Dynamic Duo apart? Decent question, weak (zero) follow up to a predictable answer by Coach Tippett.
n/m
You can tell from Tip’s post-game he misses throwing Drai and his line out after having McDavid out terrifying defenses.
#matchups
I think Tippett stacked line 1 these passed two games to try and make sure his team survived the Toronto debacle.
Two wins in a row and two more against the Sens right away really makes things feel normal again…actually it feels good again! And we won these two games because our stars shined playing together. Tippy reminded them they are still the best two players in the game right now so go show all the nay-sayers what you can do.
He managed to get his team out of some hot water by taking a risk and betting on his team. Good on him and good on the boys for pulling up their socks and getting it done.
Tippett only put them together late in the game against CGY when everything else went to shit. So 1.25 games, really.
I’ll be more interested in what he puts on the ice next game.
These guys can play better.
Especially once they believe they can.
Are we the only team to have an undefeated streak against any of our divisional rivals so far this season?
Pretty sure that means we’re not the Free Parking space on the board.
Loved Bear’s game tonight. He was backing to using his edges to create space and make nice breakout passes. Solid defensively, too.
Tipp had him on the ice in the last minute.
Its going to be a tough to figure out a contract that makes sense for both the team and the player but this org needs to re-sign Adam Larsson.
Yes he brings a much needed snarl to our D. I think Lagesson can eventually take on the role but Larsson for two more years would be ideal
Samorukov would be the other prospect.
Neither are as mean and nasty as Larsson though.
I don’t think Lars was either, when he was their age
Agreed.
I can’t agree with your oft stated position that he should sign for $2.75M/yr. Flat cap or not, he’s worth more than that even when he’s slumping. And he’s not in a slump.
$4Mx4yr with no NTC/NMC is something I’d say is fair.
When i was showed the comparables, I acknowledged that under $3M was likely and unreasonable hope.
I love me some Adam Larsson but $4M X 4 simply doesn’t work for this team I don’t think.
He’s not KRusty being signed by ChiaPete.
There is room yet for Nasty Adam at 4×4. Maybe even 4×5.
But, please, no NMC.
2 year term for Larsson. Then go after Seth Jones / Colton Parayko next offseason and trade Lars for an asset.
I don’t know whether he can be had for less than five yr term. I hope so, but I’d think he’d be guaranteed that length in FA.
Yeah that’s going to be a huge factor, the open market.
I’d probably rather over pay Larsson in term than Barrie in either dollars or term. Better fit for the team overall.
I don’t disagree. But is he going to be 3rd pairing for most of that contract? Does paying Bear and Bouch peanuts give you that luxury?
Under our current/projected construction, yes/maybe.
You need veterans.
A lack of NMC/NTC gives you options later if his play drops off or younglings supplant his position.
The notion that you cannot pay x player in y role ≥ $z is false when that player can move up and down the lineup at a whim and provide tangible value not captured by boxcars.
I believe the proper play is to trade or let Barrie walk and run Bear/Larsson/Bouchard next year with a UFA or surprise depth roster player as the 4RD and extract other marginal utility elsewhere.
I agree.
I hope we don’t need to pay him $4MX5 to keep him. X3 or X4 though, yeah.
I do think Bouch/Bear give you the luxury. Plus you don’t want to count your top 4D before they hatch.
Even if everything goes as planned, ‘3rd pair’ Larsson frees those two up to play easier minutes.
The lack of killer instinct tonight was nearly costly.
When you feel like you have your foot on the other team’s throat, you have to make sure they’re never getting back up before you take that foot away. Multiple chances to put that Sens team away and they were poor at it tonight.
Can’t be like that too much going forward. They’ll leave points on the table. Worked out, and a win’s a win, but I bet the coach won’t be thoroughly over-joyed.
Give some kudos to Daccord – the Oilers dominated the middle 40 minutes of this game. Daccord made 3-4 5-bell saves.
They took their foot off the gas halfway through the 2nd, lollygagged a couple of powerplays, and didn’t finish on the empty netters after getting out-worked in the second half of the 3rd. They were “good enough” but they need to be better and should’ve been.
One lucky bounce and the Sens get a point they have no right getting.
Yup.
Killer instinct has been lacking.
It starts with things like finishing checks. Defending teammates and goalies without hesitation. Empty net goals. There’s a lot to be gained from a complete effort but at least they’re collecting points.
We may come to a point where we look back and say that we’re awful glad they didn’t peak early. These kinds of bumps in the road could provide the adversity necessary to have big picture success.
The whole peaking thing has been a mantra running through my head all season. Very curious to see where Tip has this team in the final weeks.
Yams is going to be in a few Sens nightmares tonight, mainly Chabot, what a game. He plays exactly like my pops wanted me to play, dogged on the pucks. I’ll leave that to Kailer, looks exhausting *cracks celebration beer.
Feels like the team will take away more from the win vs CGY but who am I to complain. Glad they put in the work and earned the correct result.
Jack Michaels in the last 2 minutes of play reminds me of Ace Ventura explaining how he solved the mystery.
We’ve had two Ace Ventura references in the past few days and I’m proud, damn it.
Jack Michaels is able to make a the final minutes of a 3-2 regular season win against the Senators feel like the finals minutes of game 7 of the SCF. Okay, maybe Conference finals, but still… He does a very good job IMO.
He does amp it it up, but if I was to hear the game and not see it I might think WWE or monster truck finals were on.
Go listen to the Vancouver crew and be thankful for Jack and Louie for our regional games. They are having some fun up there. At least Jack has a unique style and I think he’s gotten better as the season has progressed.
I enjoy him on the radio too, understand his style is not for everyone.
Jack and Louie have pretty good chemistry IMO. And he was perfect for radio because of the energy he brings which has carried over to his TV broadcasts, fortunately.
Nice to finally have a home announcer that enjoys his team and hockey. Jack has got a bit of Rod Phillips in him and l love it. Long live Rod Phillips
To be honest, I’m not so sure Jack is an Oilers fan.
What makes you think that?
Just because of his history – an American who, prior to getting the job with the Oilers, I belive worked exclusively out of the US.
Win is a win.
let’s sweep this series and leave Harpers teams chasing Gms.
It doesn’t matter, due to schedule, the Canucks will leapfrog the Oilers by the end of March.
Which team is Harpers team?
This season:
Calgary
Vancouver
Ottawa
Toronto
Montreal
Winnipeg
All equally.
Teams.
the two I have in mind should have new gms by the start of next season
Lol, notice treevojo framed it as “teams”
sorry didn’t see treevojo’s response… didn’t mean to pile on
good question… what’s the flavor of the month 😉 ?
Leon’s got to work on his EN shooting.
I’m not joking.
That’s twice recently.
The Golden Bears used to work on this every single practice – and it paid off.
Didn’t Gretz talk to Connor about not taking EN goals for granted in his first season or two?
Maybe a message worth repeating.
Another big win
I’d start Koski on Wed- that’s of course after we waive him, buy him out, and send him to the taxi squad
hahaha. He did a great job resetting after that terrible goal to start.
It was a Mike Smith-esque goal.
We basically got MK Ultra afterwards.
very similar to the ugly one Smith let in on the first shot a few games ago. Credit them both for be able to reset.
Great behind the net stop by Mikko there.
Lordy, oil battling a lot more than they should be. But. With the tallent we have. Shouldn’t be this close.
Ottawa has beaten everyone else. I think they deserve a little credit too.
Take out the games against Edmonton and the Sens have a winning record over the last month (give or take on time).
Feels very Bizzaro World with stalwart supporters like Kinger and Reja turning on Koskinen, but I think he’s generally been fine or better.
He just needs to play more.
The former blamed Tippet and Holland for Mikko’s performance.
Teammates looked genuinely happy for him.
That’s a bad offensive zone turnover by Nuge.
That was a too-many-men waiting to happen
Larsson is a stud – great physical D on Tkachuk.
Adam “The Eraser” Larsson
He has been excellent. Tkachuk was visibly upset on that play.
Khaira knocks puck off a stick in neutral zone and gets a trip.
White slashes McDavid 3 times at the goal mouth on a breakaway, no call.
Ok then carry on.
97 is crushing people.
this would be a good time for another two goal Chiasson game
Allright: Lock er’ down!
wow, that Draisaitl pass while he was falling
The “powerplay” goes back to work…
That’s 4-5 breakaways in a row that McDavid hasn’t scored on – breakaway slump.
Great save by Daccord.
There was another Oiler guy that was not so good at breakaways.
Back in the day.
Turris must be moving well I’ve mistaken him for Haas a few times
Conditioning had to be inconsistent throughout the teams coming into this season. Turris came in out of shape, or just not in game shape.
Good on him – his best game tonight. Big question now is if he can follow it up.
I think Tippett is an excellent coach on the conditioning side. McDavid may be leading by example too. Ottawa is also a well conditioned team, played hard the whole game.
Tkachuk spear on JJ, no call.
Damn, Khaira just missed Shore with that pass.
Ennis made a nice series of veteran plays in three zones.
Manage the damn puck dammit
Important reactionary save there by Mikko.
So awful. Oilers gettings taken down left and right and that’s what they call? League is a joke. And no accountability.
Great PK
That was a fantastic PK… now use if for some momentum.
Ethan diving across the crease to make a save was a Bear necessity.
thats what they call?
Poor call and you know the refs were looking to “manage” the game
The NHL has its refs call the games in “arcade mode.”
I would really like an insurance goal if we are going to gift them some own zone time.
Someone tell Jack the D is silent in Dzingel. Louie too.
And that it’s “matt murray” not “matt maury”
And that a laugh is “ha ha ha ha”
And not the last half of a Woody Woodpecker laugh
Chop him down to size all you want, he’s still better than Remdial or Garrett. Or anyone coming out of Cowtown.
no idea why Barrie shot there unless he was looking for a whistle
Both Yammer and Drai had good shots at that puck