Start Kraken

by Lowetide

I maintain that the chief competition for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins services will be the new outfit. The Seattle Kraken will have more do-re-mi, I always say, and a veteran center who can play a two-way game and mentor the youths would have high value for Seattle general manager Ron Francis. What will his team look like after the expansion draft? I had a go.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

PROJECTED KRAKEN ROSTER

It’s an interesting process, because some of the rules are a hindrance to the Kraken. The expansion team must take 20 contracts, and that means a ton of 2021 RFA’s can’t be prioritized (I took nine, just one below the limit). It’s a Denver boot on drafting good players who are in their early 20’s and those happen to be the most valuable pieces available to new teams.

In this model, Seattle has $34,000,000 and nine RFA’s to sign. Edmonton has $21,000,000 to sign Adam Larsson plus restricted men Kailer Yamamoto, Jujhar Khaira, Dominik Kahun and Tyler Benson. If it gets into a salary battle between Seattle and Edmonton over the Nuge, Francis has the hammer.

BUBBLING UNDER

I used to call this “The AHL All-Stars” and identified Patrick Maroon back when he played for the Philadelphia Phantoms in the minors. Is there anyone out there this year? Yes!

  • RC Jack Studnicka, Boston Bruins (Providence). You may remember Studnicka, he was chosen by Boston with the draft pick Edmonton sent them for the rights to the fired Peter Chiarelli. He went 11, 0-7-7 in the AHL this year, and played 20 uneventful NHL games. He is 22, 6.01 and 171, might be an available asset.
  • LW Jakub Lauko, Boston Bruins (Providence). Speedy winger spiked in his season AHL season (5-14-19 in 23 games) and at 21 is blocked by Brad Marchand, Nick Ritchie and possibly Taylor Hall.
  • LC Morgan Barron, New York Rangers (Hartford). Big, skilled center who has both scoring ability and a passer’s touch. Speed is good, he would be a worthy target.
  • LC David Gustafsson, Winnipeg Jets (Manitoba). Has some (6.01, 191) size and a two-way reputation, but at age 21 went 7-12-19 in 22 AHL games and that’s a little more offense than I thought he’d bring. Long shot to acquire, Winnipeg plants the roots deep on all of their picks, but he has talent.
  • RC Riley Damiani, Dallas Stars (Texas). He played on the same Georgetown Raiders (OJHL) team as Matthew Cairns, think Dallas got the better prospect. He’s a little small, but highly skilled (36, 11-25-36) and at 21 is in the window to make his NHL debut.

HOW MANY ROOKIES?

I think we could see as many as three rookies (Evan Bouchard isn’t one) on the opening night roster.

143 comments
3

You may also like

4.3 11 votes
Article Rating
143 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
BW

Alterations are needed on the proposed second line.
Promote Yamamoto to the third line to preserve his health.
Partner him with the elusive right-shot center, Vincent Trochek will do.
Get Trocheck from Carolina.
They have 13 forwards eligible for the draft.
They lose one of Trocheck, Niederreiter, or Foegle for nothing to the Kraken.

Trade Caleb Jones and a draft pick for Trocheck.
Jones for one of the other two if Trocheck isn’t available.
Trade Zack to the NYRangers for Pavel Buchneviech.
He shoots left plays on both wings.

Coleman (FA) McDavid Puljujarvi
Nuge (FA) Draisaitl Buchneviech (Trade)
Foegele (? Trade) Trocheck (?Trade) Yamamoto
Benson McLeod Archibald
Shore Kharia

This group, sans the third-line LW, is loaded with more penalty killers than the coach can use.

LMHF#1

I’d like to reiterate how utterly stupid and wrong it is that both LV and Seattle are being gifted high end teams from the start. So damn wrong.

OriginalPouzar

Well, Dougie Hamilton probably no longer costs just cap and not assets as teams have been given permission to talk contract on him.

In one respect, its very good, as a team would/will know early if they are able to acquire the top d-man. On the other hand, the cost got more expensive as its likely a sign and trade.

Ryan

Bergevin is an absolutely fascinating GM.

He does some crazy stuff. He trades a 24-year-old Galchenyuk coming off a 19-goal, 51 point season. Nobody else trades that player (generically speaking in terms of a player that age/those stats) unless they’re capped out or something. Three years later, he’s no longer in the NHL.

So he fleeces the stathlete Chayka for Tomi which is a tidy bit of work, then he packages Domi with a third rounder for a guy coming off a four points in 26 game campaign heading for arbitration eligible restricted free agency.

Not many out there left as interesting.

Looking at his transactions, he loves to trade late round picks across years, trade down, and he’s never afraid to trade young talent.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ryan
jp

Not a lot of love for the Anderson, Edmundson or Chariot signings or the Allen trade either. But here the Canadiens are, still standing.

Also, Pacioretty for Tatar, Suzuki and a 2nd.

Ryan

I had thought the Sergachev for Droin trade was a ghastly trade.

Weiss and Fleishmann for Danault and a second… that and the Pacioetty trade. Nice examples of scouting other team’s prospects though. (Suzuki was drafted by VGK).

jp

I had thought the Sergachev for Droin trade was a ghastly trade.

It still is, no?

The Danault and Pacioretty trades though, pretty impressive.

Definitely good examples of prospect scouting, though I expect Danault would have been more famous in Quebec.

Bling

The more I think about it, the more I believe that if you are going to sign 2 LWs, Nuge should be one of them.

He has the positional versatility to swing to C once Holloway is ready.

At a number starting with a 5, he’s not a totally unreasonable value as a 3C four years from now in a mentorship role.

If that number starts with a 5, you have room to grab Hall or Granlund, my preferred options over Tatar and Coleman.

DieHard

The Islanders are a get-good-players-keep-good-players kind of team.

godot10

They let Tavares walk (too much money).

They let Lehner walk.

They had no cap room for Toews.

leadfarmer

They let Tavares walk????

innercitysmytty

That concept is antiquated under a cap system.

leadfarmer

I wonder how many sets of Islanders pajamas are gonna get sent to JTs house in the unlikely event the Isles win the cup

CMcD4PM

Does anybody else think that guy who wants the Patrice Bergeron stick on The Tim Horton’s ad is actually Bane from “The Dark Knight Rises”? Just listen to the way he talks.

Side

Did you mean… Auston Matthews?

godot10

Captain Underpants was hanging out with the Bieber last night.

Clearly Toronto is too small a town for someone who has scented the LA and NY celebrity circuit.

Side

I have to say, your posts railing against Auston Matthews are my favourite.

GordieHoweHatTrick

From a reasonable list of potential future Krakens, does anyone foresee a player they could pick that would make sense for the Oil to consider trading for?

BornInAGretzkyJersey
  • Dumba
  • Dubé
  • Jarnkrok
  • Kerfoot
  • Gourde
  • Tierney
Last edited 1 month ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
OriginalPouzar

You wouldn’t include a forward from Colorado like Jost?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Sure. I was just going off the reasonable list posted above by our host.

OriginalPouzar

Colorado is a team with protection issues that Holland and his team should be analyzing hard with a view to potentially making a deal.  If they are going to lose, for example, Tyson Jost for nothing, perhaps the Oilers can acquire him for less than 100 cents on the dollar given the Oilers will have open forward protection spots.

Harpers Hair

Jost is almost certain to be protected because he is so cheap.

Here is a breakdown of Colorado’s protection priorities.

https://theathletic.com/2647152/2021/06/12/colorado-avalanche-protected-list-whos-staying-and-who-could-be-picked-in-the-seattle-kraken-expansion-draft/?source=user_shared_article

leadfarmer

Id rather have Graves than Jost

Harpers Hair

Yep…a top pairing level D at a bargain price but Colorado will lose a D no matter what.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan Graves is a top pairing d-man?

leadfarmer

Top 10 D in the league in trollville

buck yoakam

but no braggart humpherty…

jp

Borderline 2nd/3rd pair TOI.

Results mostly in line with a strong team (SF% and GF% rel + one year, – the other, xGF% rel negative both years).

What else?

Harpers Hair

Rel is a ridiculous metric when applied to a player that has Makar, and Toews as team mates.

jp

Well, not a single one of the areas I listed. Nor points scored.

Graves is a good player. I hope Holland can pry him out of Colorado to play behind ‘this guy’.

OriginalPouzar

This is awesome.

Less than 18% of TOI vs. elites and over 46% against Gritensity.

Massively negative relative numbers across the board.

Clearly you aren’t being serious.

He’s as much a top pairing d-man as Lias Anderson is a current blue chip prospect.

Harpers Hair

Still peddling that sorry distortion of what I actually said Sparky?

Theres a difference between “blue chip prospect” and “projects as an NHL player” which is exactly what I said about Anderson.

It’s quite sad actually.

Harpers Hair

And considering Anderson has 89 NHL games to his credit at the age of 22, that’s a pretty good bet.

You had Evan Bouchard down as a good bet to win the Calder Trophy…how is that working out for you?

OriginalPouzar

Lias Anderson’s 22 year old season in the AHL was in line with Benson’s 20 year old season and Marody’s 21 year old season……

I never had Evan Bouchard as a good bet for the Calder – that’s made up.

Of course, you did have Valimaki as a front-runner for the Calder and Mikko Lehtonen as a difference maker for the Leafs……….

OriginalPouzar

Sad, like trying to argue that Ryan Graves is a top pairing d-man and better than Darnell Nurse?

JimmyV1965

Nurse will make the Olympic team. So will Makar. No other dman on Colorado will make the team.

Harpers Hair

Who you play against depends massively on who you play with.

Playing behind Makar, Toews and Girard is not a negative.

Where do you think Nurse and/or Klefbom would be slotted in that D core.

I would think second and third pairing

OriginalPouzar

Well ahead of Ryan Graves and probably around 24 minutes per night.

Ryan Graves is not a top pairing d-man in the NHL and Ryan Graves isn’t close to the player Darnell Nurse is.

Neither of these is really arguable if one isn’t simply propagating a narrative.

Side

“Playing behind Makar, Toews and Girard is not a negative.”

You’re right. It’s best that Graves’ play behind the “Norris candidates” so they can carry him to the Stanley Cup finals.

Oh wait…

Sierra

Who you play against depends massively on who you play with.

Playing behind Makar, Toews and Girard is not a negative.

Where do you think Nurse and/or Klefbom would be slotted in that D core.

I would think second and third pairing

This is one of the most ridiculous arguments you have made on here.

winchester

So can this game plan Montreal plays defeat another team with skilled, fast forwards? A little bigger this time?

i don’t know how they do it but it’s been working for them. As our Canadian presence in the semi’s, I hope they suprise again.

jtblack

Any team can win now…. BUT .. VEGAS is not TOR or WPG …. VGS had the best record in the League and just won 4 straight against the other team with 80 pts ….

Anything can happen; but the Smart $$$ is on Vegas

buck yoakam

Go Islanders!…

Wonder Llama

Islanders and Lightning about to begin – do you think they’ll play Blitzkrieg Bop? If only there was a way to hear that obscure Black Sabbath song called Paranoid. Or maybe that one about how that guy can make our hands clap…

Melman

For arguments sake if Nuge, Hall and Saad are all willing to sign a $5.75 x 4 year deal, is Nuge the best choice?

Todd Macallan

Interesting question that I certainly don’t have the answer to but will be watching the responses curiously.

Perhaps option D, sign Wennberg at a fraction of the cost and throw a Brinks truck at Dougie Hamilton?

Sierra

Why would Hamilton come to Edmonton when he hated his stay in Calgary. Is there that big of a difference between the two cities?

Red wolf

Did he hate the city or the team? Edmonton has McD and Drai, adding Hamilton makes them contenders. Most great players want championships

Sierra

IIRC it wasn’t team related.

€√¥£€^$

I live Calgary and remember the family of a child in hospital and he became like a surrogate son/big brother to the kid. I have no doubt he enjoyed his time here and so I think he wouldn’t mind coming back to Alberta.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/dougie-hamilton-looking-forward-first-game-calgary-since-trade/

Sierra

The Oilers should have no trouble signing any of the free agents they want.

buck yoakam

one has a beautiful river valley and will soon hoist the cup and is north of red deer

tsunami

well, if he hates Calgary he’s already an Oiler deep down ;)…

pts2pndr

I agree it would be a difficult choice and if not Nuge I really like your option D. With only the first three options I would choose Nuge because a. He is a known and b. His versatility

jp

I’d go: Hall, Nuge, Saad personally.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t get on board with a cap hit of $3MM for Mike Smith.

I can see a raise in his base to $2MM with a potential $1MM in performance bonuses but not an opening day cap hit of $3MM.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

You’ve been banging this drum early and often. Truth be told I agree.

But something tells me that after having acknowledged your position and tacitly agreeing, LT may be using that figure in his projections to allow some wiggle room. Just a hunch.

Sierra

And the $1M better be tied to meaningful targets.

OriginalPouzar

I do hope the Kraken sign an Oiler in their 3-day window but I hope that its Tyson Barrie. I am definitely not “expecting” it but I don’t think its out of the realm of reasonableness that the Kraken might look at Barrie.

leadfarmer

If Seattle takes Yanni Gourde with nothing else attached at least we won’t have to worry about them being competently run

Bling

Leavins with some good stuff over at Cult of Hockey today.

TJ Oshie and David Perron are two non elite guys off the top of my head who have aged well. Perron is arguably better in his 30s than he was in his 20s.

Can Nuge be like that?

The funniest/saddest thing about this negotiation is that it sounds like the Oilers and Nuge are off by a few hundred K, whereas Kassian was signed to 3.5 long term with seemingly zero hesitation.

What does that say about Holland?

Dac189

If they’re only off by a few hundred K, I feel he’s as good as signed. Kenny’s a grinder, right? Let him bring the deal down a bit more.
Very curious to see what it is though

Ryan

It’s interesting, if Sheps is watching, as a sociologist, fans at this blog can be divided into two camps.

Group 1 are the OPtomists, you see what I did there, who are fairly quick to frame mistakes made by management, in a compartmentalized manner limited in terms of the big picture impact on the team.

The second group, of which I am a member, focus more on the decision-making process itself rather than the overall impact of managerial blunders. We’re sort of a remnant product of the Dellow school. We’re more preoccupied with looking at how management thinks rather than just the individual outcomes of their decisions.

Even when management continues to show a poor process, in a repeated manner, to their decisions, group 1 continue to expect progress.

In contrast, group two wants to see evidence of the GM making decisions based upon a sound analytical process before we can have that expectation.

This is the divide.

Devon Shore has a salary you can bury in the minors, so his two-year contract is a non-issue.

Yeah, but he’s Lennart Petrell 2.0, a GM of sound mind and reasoning and using analytics, would never sign this player.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ryan
dessert1111

Some fans are process oriented but don’t come to the same conclusions as other process oriented fans. You can be ok with the Shore signing and be a fan of process. The publicly available data are good evidence bullet points but not the only bullet points to guide a decision making process. Devin Shore is a better player and a better fit than Lennart Petrell was, who as I recall was good at PK but a step below guys like Nygard and Haas, to compare him to other mid career Euros.

innercitysmytty

Exactly this – which is one of the things that I am most challenged with when it comes to some when it comes to analytics. Not to mention the fact that we do not have all of and/or know what data or information a GM is using to make decisions i.e they are likely process oriented just not using the same process that people on the outside are using or thinking they should use.

winchester

How I complained last year each time another poor depth contract was signed.

Each time the sentiment was as you described “ it’s no harm, they can just bury them” and this repeated until it absolutely was a problem.

Depth stacked up, blocked the prospects. Merry go round of try outs and trying to keep players fresh. And Holland doesn’t pay players to sit. If he signs them he thinks they can play.

Dac189

Ok but what is the alternative? They have no money so they can’t sign expensive players. They can bring up the AHL first line and hope they can make it as an NHL 3rd. DoD stuff right there.
Or they can trade away picks and prospects to fill up the bottom 6. Which to me seems like throwing away valuable pieces for a temporary boost.

pts2pndr

Last year was a very different situation due COVID and the taxi squad! The only player that we know for sure was blocked was Bouchard. Benson was deemed not ready for the NHL but needed to play. He will get his opportunity at this years training camp. It would have been nice if Bouchard got more ice but the top priority is winning and making the playoffs which the team did.

pts2pndr

The average fan does not have enough information on most deals and or options of a general manager to make a fair and unbiased judgement. Somewhere between the guy is an idiot or a genius depending on the trade or decision made and reasons for same is the truth in most cases. What we don’t see with our current management group the GM coach disconnect of their most recent predecessors.

Bling

I had a post on this earlier that was eaten by the filter.

One of Tippett’s great failures this season was awarding Ennis and Shore similar TOI overall. Ennis was a much better player at evens and the only bottom six guy with a GF% > 50.

Imagine that. Your entire bottom six is bleeding and the one guy who is over 50% gets stapled to the press box for more than half the games.

Holland is a tough guy to figure out because Kassian and Shore were stupid mistakes, but Ennis and Kahun were good bets.

OriginalPouzar

Tough to criticize a coach for not playing a guy that cleared waivers twice during the season with a nominal cap hit.

Not a single manager in the league thought he could help their roster for free.

Bling

Sure, but Ennis was demonstrably better (by GF%), than many bottom six Oilers this season. In fact, he was the best.

I find it hard to believe he did not justify a regular spot in the lineup.

This isn’t just by the numbers. I thought visually he played well when in the lineup, and in particular I thought he meshed well with McLeod.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree in general and, frankly, I liked Ennis when he was in the lineup as well – quick and skilled.

I think the issue was that, despite his GF% (which can be somewhat non-representative at times), he was prone to defensive mistakes. Of course, many of the Oilers’ players were prone to mistakes but, if I’m not mistaken, Dave/Bruce had him as one of the most likely (if not the most likely) to make a mistake the contributed to a scoring chance against.

defmn

I wonder how much Hall’s contract will impact Nuge’s thinking. As one of the original Six Million Dollar men you have to think that plays a role.

When Hall signed for $8 M last summer I can see Nuge thinking about that in light of his own negotiations. Eberle at $5.5 M (the other $6 M man) maybe didn’t look quite the same with Hall getting a pretty big bump.

I guess we wait but if Hall gets signed by Boston in the next few weeks I think it will have an effect on Nuge’s negotiations.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Largely agree, but the GM is an important factor to consider. I’m sure it’s not lost on the players and their agents either. Botterill was closer to the Chiarelli school of negotiations than the Lamorello school and that has an outsized impact on the AAV.

Bling

Nuge and Eberle were always lesser lights in comparison to Hall.

We’ll see. I continue to think that guys waiting to test free agency with substantial multi year offers on the table are taking an unnecessary risk.

winchester

Leon with two good NHL wingers should win his goal share. Give him nuge and Yamamoto and they will be a good line in the NHL. No guessing here we know it to be a fact. One line down.

Connor with two good NHL wingers should win his goal share we know this to be a fact. He needs wingers. This line still needs built.

Fourth line of specialty players such as GG, McLeod, Archibald will also be a successful line. No worries here and lots of players available.

Jesse P plays well on the top line but I believe he can be maximized by driving his own line. Plus power-play time. Give him Benson on the left and a talented center like Gourd or Kadri and this line should win it’s goal share.

Kassian has held the top line position and he could be penciled in on number one right wing but he is just too inconsistent and hard to bet on here. I would still have a place for him, but if he could be moved for cap reasons Patrick maroon is available

So I am in it in agreement with most here, third line center, top left winger, top right winger.

Look at players like Saad, Coleman, DeBrusk, Kadri, Killorn, Woods, Gourd, ….

In goal I am of the opinion that Koskinen cannot stay. There is no way forward with him and that’s unfortunate but it is what it is.

Looking at defence I also see all kinds of depth for the third pairing and that includes Klefbom if that one comes back he’s going to be third pairing at best to start and anything else is in extreme Gamble. We must get another top for defenceman and that defenceman has to be big mobile and Tough. Oilers have been giving up so much in front of their own net.

So that is one goalie one top four defenceman and three forwards plus counting on internal development.

For Holland it won’t be as easy as going out and signing free agents and then going on holiday like he likes to do. He needs a steal somewhere. A cap strap team or somebody that’s been devalued

Palmeri. McDavid. Woods
Nuge. Drai. Yamamoto
Benson. Kadri. Jarvie
JJ Macloud. Archibald

Nurse. Larson
Martinez. Bear
Klefbom. Bouchard
Samorukov.

Excuse long post and I doubt I have any “aha” moments here but I enjoyed putting my thoughts down🙂

lenko

Wrote Jessie off already??

winchester

I can never spell his last name so call him Jarvie. He’s in there.

lenko

Jesse Jarvie – lol, two JJs on the same team.

Harpers Hair

When assessing the Kraken draft it’s important to remember they will likely select a number of RFA’s they have no intention of signing in order to preserve cap space.

In reviewing the Vegas picks you can quickly see more than a few players who never played a game for the Knights.

https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/news/vegas-golden-knights-expansion-draft-transactions/c-290058928

Vegas was also able to collect numerous draft picks through deals made with other teams to select specific players with many of those picks then flipped for more substantial players.

While I think that strategy will be more muted this time, it will still factor into what the opening night roster will look like.

leadfarmer

I think teams will have learned their lesson and let Seattle just take somebody instead of maneuvering to preserve their team.
For example Wild are just gonna let them have Dumba this time.
The real question is how much can they extract from teams like lightning. Dumping Johnson will cost Cirelli at least. Although teams like the Oilers can make a play for Palat which can make them less willing to negotiate.

leadfarmer

Actually I think they will pick a bunch of lower cost Rfas and cheaper players and then pick up the Kerfoots of the league when they are getting dumped for cap space a coupe of weeks later

Harpers Hair

I expect there will be a flurry of trades before the expansion draft to allow teams with protection problems to reap at least some assets rather than lose them for nothing…Kerfoot being a possible example of this.

leadfarmer

between the cap space issues and the need to protect I very strongly doubt it. Last expansion draft teams were in much better cap positions and what you suggested just did not happen

Woogie63

I think there is a Russian wrinkle in next year’s line up.

Konovalov and Samorukov are now real pro players, they will expect to come to North America to fly to games and not to make $70,000 in Bakersfield. They will have real options for a career in the KHL.

1.Ilya Konovalov –
Has been percolating in Russia
54 games in the MHL
111 games in the KHL (2nd best league )
Koskinen played 141 games in the KHL and came right into the NHL.

2.Dmitri Samorukov –
Has play 48 games in the KHL and 47 games in the AHL and full junior career he is going to expect to play in the NHL.

Redbird62

Except both are under contract to the Oilers, so if the Oilers assign them to Bakersfield, they can’t go play in the KHL or play anywhere else for money, all they can do is holdout. And I believe because Samorukov played this past season on a KHL deal, and not technically loaned by the Oilers (but Ken Holland still had to agree to the deal), it’s likely that Samorukov’s contract with the Oilers slides an extra year, so both would be under contract for 2 more seasons.

Woogie63

I get that and what you say is true. However…. no team would want two disgruntled players on their AHL team influencing the next generation of players.

Redbird62

Pretty much every promising young player who gets demoted to the AHL is unhappy with the decision. But if that motivates them to complain and be a bad influence instead of to work hard and learn what it takes to get called back up, then long term, they aren’t going to be good for the team anyway. And I don’t think Holland or Tippett will keep players at the NHL level if they are otherwise not yet worthy but to avoid them being disgruntled.

Woogie63

I get every player is disappointed if they are demoted to the AHL, the nuance here is these two have have been making $200,000 ish (KHL don’t publish all the salaries) as a pro, both living in absolutely beautiful cities (Moscow and Yaroslavl), flying to games..

To stay in Bakersfield and play in front of 5,000 fans, ride a bus and make $70,000 dollars puts the demotion to the AHL in a completely different light.

We could talk over a good bottle of scotch on your “they aren’t going to be good for the team anyway” comment – If you are “demoted” what do you compare that “demotion” against – a nice life in Moscow close to family vs. a kid who has never made much money nor been in the pros. Might be very different??

OriginalPouzar

Woogie63

I get every player is disappointed if they are demoted to the AHL, the nuance here is these two have have been making $200,000 ish (KHL don’t publish all the salaries) as a pro, both living in absolutely beautiful cities (Moscow and Yaroslavl), flying to games..

To stay in Bakersfield and play in front of 5,000 fans, ride a bus and make $70,000 dollars puts the demotion to the AHL in a completely different light.

Firstly, $200K is highly aggresive for the predicted salary for each of these guys…. way high I would think.

More importantly though is what about the other nuance, that both players are clearly working towards their goal of the NHL and are both well aware of the likelihood of playing in the AHL this year.

Samorukov came to Canada as a 16 year old – the only reason he was in the KHL this year was due to Covid and the lack of an AHL to start last season. He was given permission to play in the KHL for the one year.

Konovalov refused to re-sign in the KHL and is leaving the KHL at his first post-draft opportunity to come to North America with full knowledge that he is highly unlikely to be in the NHL this season.

jp

Firstly, $200K is highly aggresive for the predicted salary for each of these guys…. way high I would think.

Looks like Konovalov has a $92k signing bonus, so I guess he’ll make about $160k even in Bakersfield.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, but my comment was that $200K in the KHL is likely high for what these guys were likely making.

jp

Yes.

Perhaps I should have been more clear. I was posting to say that Konovalov is very likely to make more playing in Bakersfield than he would in Yaroslavl.

pts2pndr

If you take a look at the NHL roster you can see where Samorukov will get NHL games this year. Putting him in over his head and destroying his confidence because of the worry of him going back to Russia after two more years would be in my opinion bad asset management. If his game is as I expect it to be playing first pairing D in the AHL there will be a spot for him with the Oilers my guess is by Christmas at the latest.

Reja

We’ve never had much luck with Russians Slepy included to bad they couldn’t find a niche for him. Offhand the only Russian that really panned out was Boris Mironov. I sure miss a hip checking D maybe Sami can bring it back to life.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I get your premise but I don’t see anything from either one that would have them reasonably expect to play in the NHL. That’s a privilege that is earned, not entitled. I do expect both to get a look at training camp, should be interesting. Couple of darkhorse candidates, for sure.

Harpers Hair

There are many examples of Russian players bolting for home if they face time in the AHL.

OriginalPouzar

Does this list include many players that:

1) came to Canada as a 16 year old to play 3 seasons in the OHL

or

2) refuse to sign in the KHL in order to sign an NHL ELC with full knowledge that they are unlikely to be on the NHL team in year 1

jp

Podkolzin poses about as much flight risk I’d think (very low).

OriginalPouzar

Samorukov came to Canada as a 16 year old to play junior hockey presumably in his efforts to eventually play in the NHL.

He played 3 years of junior and then graduated to pro hockey and spent his rookie season in the AHL.

The only reason he went to the KHL this past season, with the blessing of the Oilers as required, was because of Covid and the AHL not playing in winter 2020.

I don’t think there are any issues with Sammy playing in the AHL if deemed required by Holland and Tippet. If he hasn’t made the NHL in 2-3 years and is only being offered 2-way contracts then, sure, maybe he heads “home” but I can see that any time in the near future.

I am quite confident that Konovalov and his agent know very well he is almost assuredly going to be assigned to the AHL for the entirety of the first year of his ELC. He refused to sign in the KHL and signed his NHL ELC with this knowledge.

These two players are both working towards their goals of playing in the NHL and they know they are near the beginning of that journey and it may take time.

I have zero concern with either as a flight risk.

GordieHoweHatTrick

One thing for sure…the door is wide open at both positions!!

Brantford Boy

Uh… who’s the 3rd rookie LT?

Wonder Llama

Who does Archibald play for when Oilers and Kraken go head to head?

Is the prevailing wisdom still that they’re likely to take Caleb Jones?

Ryan

Jones, Lags, or Benson.

jp

I don’t see why they’d take Lagesson myself. I’m having a hard time seeing the upside at age 25.

Agree on Jones + Benson being most likely, but I also wouldn’t be so surprised to see it be Archibald or Kassian (given the number of D available, and who knows what Francis thinks of Benson).

Ryan

I would be mildly surprised as well.

I am starting to think that managers don’t think of just individual defenseman, rather they think it terms of pairings.

Maybe Ron Francis has a small, mobile puck mover for the third pair and he thinks Lags is a good fit.

Again, I wouldn’t suspect that Lags is on the top of the list, but it’s possible.

jp

Yes, that’s certainly possible. Lagesson looks like a guy who could fill a role, just probably one up the depth chart.

Ryan

Look at Vegas’ inaugural season.

Injuries to blue often happen.

I was shocked to see Brad Hunt play what appeared to be an effective role.

Edit: agreed that it would be hard to see him making the roster on their opening day lineup. Vegas drafted a bunch of defenseman though they also later traded a lot of them for picks after.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ryan
jp

Yeah, just thinking there should be quite a number of defensemen available that have potential upside higher than Lagesson (which I’d peg as 3rd pair).

It would be close to ideal from an Oilers POV if Seattle picked him (IMO).

ArmchairGM

Who does Archibald play for when Oilers and Kraken go head to head?

Nice one. I can’t believe everybody’s missed it.

jtblack

I got time for that Roster. Wennberg and Coleman are legit NHL players. Wennberg only 26, could fit into the Core

godot10

Penny is worth $3.9 million. Jamie about half of that. Oleksiak is a 3rd pairing quality D.

I’d rather sign Kulikov for one year than give really money and any duration to Oleksiak.

Samorukov and Broberg are coming.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Haven’t seen the WOWYs but I’d be very leery of paying a guy who was likely being polished by Heiskanen.

OriginalPouzar

Give me some Mike Riley as the 2LD stop-gap until Klef is activated.

Cheaper and a “better skill-set” – maybe not “better” but better skills for that role – in my opinion.

106 and 106

Toews for 2 seconds. Sakic, man.

Oil2Oilers

Ryan Getzlaf, who would be a fine addition as a bottom 6 center, has signed an important contract already this summer;

https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2021-06-07/ducks-captain-ryan-getzlaf-drops-5-million-on-a-coto-de-caza-retreat

106 and 106

So you’re saying theres a chance.

Ryan

Nice little thread on Twitter this morning.

I was just reading it while Woodguy posted here.

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1404051900790575113

Hi @KurtLeavins

you mentioned in your column that Shore’s results were probably due to who he played with.

Here’s every forward on EDM who played over 40 min with Shore this year. Their 5v5 goal share drops by ~20%+ when playing with Shore

Oil2Oilers

The player tracking stats, live on the UEFA website for the Euro’s is a step forward. The NHL keeping this stuff secret/proprietary is letting the fans down.

Woodguy v2.0

Interesting that you have Wennberg as 3C. I looked at him last year: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_26.html

He was sometimes used as 2C in FLA with Huberdeau but the GF% results were kinda meh. When he went down the roster and played 3C with Vatrano they did well.

FLA ran Acciari vs. 2nd toughs in terms of QoC (behind Barkov) similar to how PIT runs their checking line vs toughs.

If Tippett runs the 3rd pair vs 3rd toughs it could work and he could play 2C in a pinch like Nuge if Tippett needs to scratch his 97-29 itch.

I think they go after Wennberg only if Nuge walks, but its an interesting target.

Bobcaygeon

Sorry to bother you.

How would Erik Haula look as a 3C option? I know he’s not a RHC but his price point is nice.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Click the link (spam!), Woodguy already did analysis on Haula.

I’m more optimistic, but that’s just going off my gut.

jp

Haula faired slightly better than Wennberg prior to this season (according to WG).

Wennberg was rated as more affordable than Haula too, which is almost certainly no longer the case.

jtblack

I think wennberg makes a great target. If he fits in and plays well he can be around for 3 – 6 yrs …. as you point out; he is Versatile.

OriginalPouzar

Danault, then Wennberg than Haula – order of 3C preference (which is also likely an order of cost). Danault will be expensive but can play up the lineup as well.

Ice Sage

Thanks LT, this is the first stab at (tentacle of?) the Kraken that I’ve seen… and, heck, looks like a team of grinders and tweens that, in today’s NHL, should make the second round of next years playoffs, maybe at the Oilers expense!
That being said, it’s exciting times on the west coast, I’ll joyfully travel to the Emerald city to see the Oilers instead of Vcr.

rocket

imho still believe the Oilers will look for a right handed centre who has a history of being good at winning faceoffs

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Please let it be basically anyone other than Glendenning.

Woodguy v2.0

Hate to be that guy (really, I do) but no way COL doesn’t protect Toews, he’s been their top LHD all season.

They’ll expose (or trade before the expansion draft) Girard before Toews, especially after the poor playoff Girard had.

I suspect they’ll ask Johnson to waive his NMC and expose him due to his inability to stay healthy and protect Makar, Toews and Girard.

Ryan

I was just about to write the same thing, but my browser crashed when I went to get a link.

leadfarmer

Yeah someone more like Graves Kadri Jost Doonskoi

106 and 106

Girard looked rough this playoffs – agreed here.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Or they’d protect 8 skaters and lose one of their forwards. Assuming Johnson isn’t amenable to waiving his NMC, I’d sooner keep Toews and Girard over one of Burakovsky (who I’d protect as my 4th forward), Kadri, or Donskoi.

jp

I’d sooner keep Toews and Girard over one of Burakovsky (who I’d protect as my 4th forward), Kadri, or Donskoi.

I’ve been thinking the same.

They can even protect Burakovsky if Landeskog hasn’t/isn’t re-signed.