No one can agree on the best way to evaluate draft seasons, draft scouting staffs, draft eras by team. It’s too massive a task and there’s always bias. Byron Bader is an interesting fellow who has adopted 200 NHL games as a line in the sand and says about 25 percent of the time a draft pick will make the NHL. He has a new graph up and I thought, since we’re in a rain delay, we might have a look at Edmonton’s draft picks, scouting staffs and eras. Here we go.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How Jesse Puljujarvi has earned role as Oilers’ top right winger next to Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers still haven’t replaced Adam Larsson’s nasty edge and goal suppression ability
- DNB: Oilers’ 5-game losing streak highlights 5 glaring issues that need to be fixed
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie’s comparables, why he wasn’t selected for the world juniors
- Lowetide: Markus Niemelainen winning Oilers recall battle
- DNB: Ethan Bear is rising above and thinking big
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s contract and skill set make his Oilers future uncertain
- Lowetide: Oilers may find inspiration from 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings
- DNB: Several Oilers issues coming to a head
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers are on track to make their countries’ 2022 Olympic hockey teams?
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s first full NHL season a learning experience
- Lowetide: Analyzing Cody Ceci’s importance to the Edmonton Oilers and future deployment
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
- DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
- DNB: Oilers turn to Markus Niemelainen
- Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
OILERS FIRST ROUND, 2005-13
- Picks 1-5: 97.7 percent NHL player (200 games); 45.5 percent star
The way most people evaluate scouting staffs and NHL teams who have picks inside the top five overall is the following: If the player works out, one acts indifferent, as if on an elevator and watching the numbers light up one by one. No matter how impressive the career totals, it was expected. Don’t move, even if a mosquito lands on your nose. Uncool to flinch man, uncool.
- Oilers picks 1-5, 2005-13: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov
Hall won an MVP, spent a decade pushing the river and will finish with handsome career totals. Nugent-Hopkins qualifies for both NHL and Star in the “career value” category, plus his range of skills. Yakupov played 350 NHL games and led all rookies in goals 2012-13, but falls well short of star status.
Edmonton got three NHL players, holding up that side of the bet, but just two of three stars. Bader’s graph says you only get a star half of the time drafting inside the top-5 overall and Yakupov was the right call on draft day. The Oilers were not a mature organization at the time, and he got hurt (by an official no less) and things seemed to spiral.
- Oilers picks 6-10, 2005-13: Sam Gagner, Magnus Paajarvi, Darnell Nurse
Sam Gagner qualifies as an NHL player, but not as a star despite some impressive career boxcar numbers. Magnus Paajarvi same, he was well clear of 200 games but had a disappointing career. Nurse is perhaps the most interesting case in this group, and I think his status will come down to how much impact you believe he has defensively. My view of Nurse is that he falls short of the definition of star, your mileage may vary. Fine player. So, that means Edmonton has no stars from the 6-10 group, an area where teams can expect a star just shy of 18 percent of the time. Based on Bader’s number, we shouldn’t be surprised by that result. It seems counter to logic, but Bader’s numbers are just numbers, no bias.
- Oilers picks 11-20, 2005-13: Alex Plante, Oscar Klefbom
Plante’s spot should have delivered an NHL player 75 percent of the time. It did not. I think the scouts are to blame. Oscar Klefbom qualifies as an NHL player but his injury means he’ll never reach star level via the ‘career value’ that I have Nuge under, which is a damn shame. If Nurse hangs around long enough to reach that status, can we say he was better than Klefbom? Even though that was not the case when Klefbom was healthy and a teammate? I don’t know the answer.
- Oilers picks 21-30, 2005-13: Andrew Cogliano, Riley Nash, Jordan Eberle
So far, we have identified just two ‘stars’ in the group, first overall picks Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Eberle has reached star status under the same ‘career’ banner that Nuge qualifies under. He’s deserving of it, and considering the club drafted him No. 22 overall, this has to be considered one of the great picks of the era by Edmonton.
Andrew Cogliano has enjoyed a long career but he falls shy of star value, Nash has long since qualified as an NHL player but won’t land higher.
OILERS SECOND ROUND, 2005-13
- Round Two NHL qualifiers (200 games): Jeff Petry, Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin
- Round Two NHL stars:
- Round Two picks who finished shy: Taylor Chorney, Curtis Hamilton, David Musil, Mitchell Moroz, Marco Roy
Petry has accomplished much, but lands in the Nurse-Klefbom category of solid NHL players who aren’t stars. Perhaps we’ll be able to show more value with defensive stats in the future but for now Petry lands as an NHL regular. Lander, Pitlick and Marincin all played long enough to reach 200 games.
These men had a 30 percent chance of being NHL players according to Bader’s work, so in my opinion the scouts did well in the second round. Petry was an especially astute selection.
OILERS THIRD ROUND, 2005-13
- Round Three NHL Qualifiers (200 games): Jujhar Khaira
- Round Three NHL stars:
- Round Three picks who finished shy: Danny Syvret, Robby Dee, Theo Peckham, Cameron Abney, Troy Hesketh, Ryan Martindale, Samu Perhonen, Travis Ewanyk, Daniil Zharkov, Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev
Bader has this round with a 21 percent chance of finding an NHL player (200 games), the Oilers scouts missed badly in this round over the entire span of the study. Khaira qualifies as an NHL player but not at the Petry level. This is a bad look, and something Edmonton must improve on if there’s any hope of keeping pace in the years where the first-round picks will be 15-32.
OILERS FOURTH ROUND, 2005-13
- Round Four NHL Qualifiers (200 games): Chris VandeVelde, Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson
- Round Four NHL Stars:
- Round Four picks who finished shy: Slava Trukhno, Linus Omark, John Motin, Kyle Bigos, Toni Rajala, Jeremie Blain, Dillon Simpson, Jackson Houck, Kyle Platzer, Aidan Muir
Bader has it at 17 percent once the fourth round hits, but Edmonton found three times as many NHL players in the fourth round than the third round. I used to talk about the Oilers going walkabout in the third round and then getting back to business. These years later, the results are clear. Even a shy player like Omark at least had the skill to make it. Whatever the reason, the walkabout third round cost Edmonton in these years.
OILERS FIFTH ROUND, 2005-13
- Round Five NHL Qualifiers (200 games):
- Round Five NHL Stars:
- Round Five picks who finished shy: Fredrik Pettersson, Bryan Pitton, Cody Wild, Milan Kynar, Philip Cornet, Olivier Roy, Tyler Bunz, Martin Gernat, Joey Laleggia, Evan Campbell
There is an 11.6 percent chance of finding an NHL player, so it’s difficult to get angry over 10 straight misses. It’s also true that you can’t multiply the percentage times the total number of picks and come up with 1.16 NHL players as an expectancy, even if you really want to do it. The dice have no memory, the picks aren’t connected, so that’s a non-starter. Tyler Bunz was a good prospect before the concussion.
OILERS SIXTH ROUND, 2005-13
- Round Six NHL Qualifiers (200 games): Brandon Davidson
- Round Six NHL Stars:
- Round Six picks who finished shy: Alexander Bumagin, William Quist, Teemu Hartikainen, Drew Czerwonka, John McCarron, Ben Betker
A player chosen here has a 10.7 percent chance of emerging as an NHL player. I’m using Bader’s 200 game marker for most of this article, but for me Brandon Davidson’s 180 games qualify him as an actual NHL player. If you factor in the mutt maneuvre by Matt Tkachuk and Dustin Byfuglien’s wrecking ball hit, Davidson would have been long past 200 many years ago. Injuries to defensemen can derail careers, Davidson had real promise.
OILERS SEVENTH ROUND, 2005-13
- Round Seven NHL Qualifiers (200 games):
- Round Seven NHL Stars:
- Round Six picks who finished shy: Matthew Glasser, Jordan Bendfeld, Kristians Pelss, Kellen Jones, Frans Tuohimaa, Greg Chase.
Oilers were drafting skill late, I think the scouts should get some credit for it. The next 10 years are looking better, but it’s early days.
THE STARS AND REGULARS, 2005-13
Is this good? I’ve grown tired of the back and forth over the years, it’s no one’s fault but it does become noise. I’m probably supposed to be more upset about the Yakupov pick than the 2007 whiffs, but hang it all anyway the Alex Plante pick is the one that’s always bothered me. A 75 percent chance of getting an NHL player, and no cigar.
I think the Oilers have done well with defensemen, Nurse along with Klefbom and Petry is a nice run for nine years. I liked the 2010 draft, and there are four men on the list above from that year. The 2011 draft (Nuge, Klefbom, Rieder) is the best one, suspect 2009 will be the one that is least remembered.
I like the drafting by this team from 2011 to now. I know that’s an unusual take, but unlike Alex Plante (and it isn’t his fault) the first-round picks have turned out. Yakupov is the downbeat in the group, but he was the right pick. I don’t have sleepless nights over that one, not like Jason Bonsignore or Steve Kelly. The man got hurt, wasn’t a good fit and the Oilers at that time were transitioning like a chameleon.
I believe, and if you’re reading this in 2050 please leave a comment that says “yes, we found it!” there’s every chance that several defensemen on this list are undervalued. Puck IQ will find the answers, it’s all about deployment, just like World War 2.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning we have a terrific show filled with interesting guests. TSN1260 beginning at 10, here’s the list:
- Former NHL player Shawn Thornton, who will talk about his book “Fighting My Way to the Top.”
- Tyler Yaremchuk from DFO and Oilers Nation, we’ll chat about the Oilers and their position in he Pacific Division.
- Murat Ates, The Athletic Winnipeg will discuss Paul Maurice, his exit and the Jets since he left.
- Matthew Iwanyk will break down the ridiculous NFL playoff situation.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Mardy is 10.2 P/60 this season – they can’t let that type of production walk, can they?
I’d put the draft value of petry as high as RNH value to be honest.
At one point I was building a draft calculator that pulled from hockeydb’s draft lists and had sliding scales that one could adjust for ratings by draft number and percieved player quality which you could tweek modifiers. Was getting it to spit out team summaries over multiple years that a person could select. So you’d get like:
1990-1995 oilers
———————-
Total Picks
xxx stars – (list with draft position)
xxx elite
xxx good
xxx pluggers
xxx tweeners
Total score based on draft positions and player quality for period -> xxxxx
(The draft scale thing I was pumped on trying to tweek for valuing a zetterburg over a forsberg regarding scouting grade?)
I was honestly building it for you to play with. That hard drive was lost somewhere either here or in the states in my work gear…Never found the time or gumption to get head going on starting from scratch again.
Just primarily was diving into mechanics and hadn’t hyperlinked actual stats to ensure it stayed current and useful but straight up I was starting to see how to actually build the real tool required to better answer this line of thought.
anyway, happy holidays.
Twice tonight I’ve popped in to read much fury and very little content. I think it best we shut down the comments, I’ll wait to see if things change in the next half hour or so. If you have something constructive, please share. If you’re here to continue a years long verbal tirade, then please refrain.
Testy times in Calgary with a new sheriff in town:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/calgary-mayor-says-flames-pulled-new-arena-project/
a real shame, that, real shame…
I am no fan of the flames but this is a very disappointing development, and not just for those living in Calgary.
It reminds me that Katz, for all his retro-conceits, has been a good owner and advocate.
There’s a Tear in my Beer.
on the bright side, days get longer starting right….
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Now!
The 2021 winter solstice takes place on Tuesday, Dec. 21, at 3:59 p.m.
Feels like springtime already!
I’ve been writing today, just popped in to see about 15 pissy comments. Since we’re coming on Christmas, I’d like to request that all of you refrain from making personal comments and asides. I’m not going to warn you, but violators will have an opportunity to enjoy Christmas without having access to the comments section. No exceptions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj44stHz49g
They edited that one for MTV! -).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgDzCDSLxOg
The hockey new has the Cody Ceci contract as one of the 5 worst signings this year, pffftttt. https://thehockeynews.com/news/top-5-worst-nhl-signings-of-2021
That’s a poor choice by THN for sure.
What happens when someone from Toronto writes an article on a player they haven’t seen in 2 years
The thing is he played well in Toronto. And Pittsburgh. That was an unusual choice.
Leaf fans seemed to not like the way he played for them (just from general perusing). I can’t profess to have watched him play much as Leaf but I know his GA/60 were the best among the regular D.
Might be interesting to see how Ceci would stack up on a top 8 team.
Maybe Vancouver.
RHD is the Canucks kypronite.
Of course they are far from a top 8 team.
LOL – the Oilers are 4 points out of 8th in the NHL (and with games in hand on the majority of teams ahead). 0.3 points percentage back.
What a vast delta….
LOL.
Being 4 points out of 8th is huge.
The Oilers are currently 15th in the league by points percentage.
Here are the top 8 by points percentage:
Carolina .741
Tampa .724
Toronto .700
Rangers .700
Washinton .694
Florida .690
Colorado .667
Minnesota .667
Which of these teams do you see the Oilers having a better win percentage for the rest of the season?
I would posit the answer is zero.
4 points out of 8th in the NHL, with two games in hand on that team.
Why don’t you sort by wins (where the Oilers are one win back of 8th) or, even better, by regulation wins, where the Oilers are 7th.
Maybe discount some loser points, like the 7 the Caps have or the 5 the Pens and Preds have (or the 6 the Ducks and Flames have).
except the times you said they didn’t?
I wonder if they even watch any Oiler games? I did not like the signing but Ceci has been WAY better than I expected. He has played well.
The vast majority of opinions on Ceci seem based on his play in Toronto and Ottawa without any regard for his play in Pit last year and, now, his play in Edmonton.
The author used one advanced stat to propagate a personal narrative on this player without searching for any context for the number (i.e. defensive zone starts, etc.).
It’s a fine reminder why I treat THN as junk food in my hockey reading.
Ceci has been a good signing. 3.25 for a second pair RHD is excellent. On pace for 23 points with no PP time, tough zone starts, and a rotating cast at LHD. Yeah, I’ll take that.
Ceci is very much like Petry: a good young defenseman on a crappy team who does not make enough of a difference and subsequently undervalued elsewhere due to the loser stanch.
Good point. Also, like Petry, is big but not overtly physical on team whose fanbase craves a rugged style of play. Thus increasing the undervalued nature of the player.
I am not so sure ruggedness was an issue the fanbase had with Petry. In his entire tenure in Edm, Petry was perceived to out perform all other defensemen in the team, including the big ticket UFA Ferrnces, Nikitns and Faynes(even JShulz).
Rather, I think they are similar such that they got so good versus what the other guys on the roster and wanted to get paid more than the team had in mind (how can you justify Ference/Nikitin/Fanye getting paid 3.5/4.5/4.0M but Petry is only worth 2.6M?). Similarly, Ceci was making 2.8M at end of 2 year bridge deal when they traded for Phaneuf ‘s 5M contract (and had little to show for on the ice), and ended up with a 1 year 4.6M extension that Ottawa signs so not to lose player for nothing, but ended up with a negative value asset due to cap hit (and emergence if Thomas Chabot).
Their large salary demand turn them away from their respective original team, but to the rest of the league they are an unwanted player in a bottom dwelling team. “If they sre not part of the solution they must be part of the problem” sort of thing.
Why I dislike and often do not read anything from THN anymore. Ceci yr 1 has been very good. He would have to have a drastic dropoff to be bad. Especially when he is paid 2nd pairing money. JMHO
Yeah he’s being paid as a #4D right now (#107 defenseman cap hit in the league) and that’ll be pushed down to #5D pay before the end of the deal.
Today is Ceci’s birthday by the way (happy 28th Cody!). Perhaps poor form for THN to name him on a ‘worst’ list on his birthday.
Anyway, he’ll turn 31 mid way though the final year of his deal, so it’s a good bet his play won’t have fallen off much or at all by then.
Not that we should put much stock (any?) in what Treenas Oil is tweeting, but the timing of her Klef comeback talk and Holland backing out of the Chychrun sweepstakes (as reported by Friedman) is curious.
Perhaps he decided parting with Broberg is too rich and/or risky (I completely agree). Or, maybe Klef really is on the comeback trail. There is definitely uncertainty with where Klef’s game would be, but surely he could play 3 LHD and play some PK minutes, at least initially. By playoff time? Not unreasonable that he could supplant Keith as 2 LHD.
If that’s the projected timeline, definitely doesn’t make any sense to trade Broberg, who I project to be a top 4 D at the beginning of next season.
Stauffer’s latest tweet refers to changes for the forwards, but nothing with respect to the D, which dovetails nicely with this theory. Also, all these Covid related delays just mean more time for Klef to get up to speed. Off-season + training camp ~ 4 months. Let’s assume Klef is 1 month in, basically on the Peloton, doing some light weights (for him). So he comes back in March, just like Treenas said.
Man. If Klefbom comes back, plays second pair effectively, and mentors Broberg, I will be in shambles as a human being. Emotionally! In a good way! It would be the best comeback since Rem the Gem!
And we all remember what happened that year.
If Klef is back…you know Larsson could be, too. Barrie for Larsson. Boom, I’ll stop complaining about the D.
Well we haven’t heard much from Klef himself but what we know is he never announced that he’s not gonna play again
Time frame is 12 months from surgery which what you would expect for major surgery
Having Klef back, near his established abilities, would be AMAZING. They have to find the cap space but that can be done.
I don’t think for a second its a possibility for March based on Garfield.
With respect to Chychrun, I’m sure Holland had conversations and kicked tires, he has a reputation of being very diligent and in the know on all these things. At the same time, if the ask is 3 tier A futures (i.e combo of the Borberg/Holloway/Bougault group and 1st round picks), I would hope he’s be “out” and I anticipate that is what has gone down.
What is your expectation for recovery from shoulder surgery?
I thought Klef’s career was over, but what is making me reconsider is how great Tarasenko has been this year.
I know, very (completely) different surgeries, but Tarasenko has also had multiple surgeries and had a fairly significant one the last time. He looks like he’s back where he was in his early-to-mid career. Taraenko is 30, Klef is 28.
The big thing for Klef was pain. If the pain is gone, the guy is a specimen. He can get back quick.
I think March makes a lot of sense. His surgery was announced as successful on March 26. Any time in March would put him on or slightly ahead of schedule.
He was a borderline first/second pairing playing through pain. I think he’s an easy bet to solidify the third pair.
I’ve never thought that his career was definitely over.
It was certainly a possibility but Klef was very clear that he still had a goal of returning to the National Hockey League.
Now, he wasn’t sure if it was do-able, he wasn’t going to crater his post-hockey standard of living in the name of the NHL, but that was his goal.
We haven’t head from Klef since then (which is fine) but we have heard Holland say that Klef is not an option this season.
Sure, things can change – maybe Klef or his agency have been in touch and things are moving along very well.
At the same time, I’m not going to put any real stock in to “Garfield” despite what happened in 2011, a decade ago.
And maybe Holland said that because the plan was if he returned to health it would be for the playoffs only, because of cap issues, similar to what Tampa did last year.
Sure, maybe – that doesn’t jive with Garfield and March then.
I wouldn’t move any of the big four (Savoie is another, for me). Too many up arrows and we need cheap contracts.
Bear was contributing as a top 4 at age 22. Not unreasonable to project Broberg playing regularly at age 21, given the higher pedigree, better size/skating, and better AHL production.
I would like to know why Chychrun is having his lunch eaten by Ghost this season. I’m not as bullish on him (particularly given the cost) as Twitter is.
Vancouver #Canucks (@Canucks) Tweeted:
With the postponement of games, #Canucks Sports & Entertainment have spent the past 24 hours packing 7 tonnes of food from @RogersArena.
The food is enough to feed 36,000 people and will be donated to the Salvation Army and Greater Vancouver Food Bank. https://t.co/fKH9cn4sKD
https://twitter.com/Canucks/status/1473102982254252034?s=20
That’s good that they did that, but a logistical nightmare for the charities! I hope it gets to where it’s needed most.
I’m pretty sure the resources will be provided to ensure that this very generous gift will be distributed to those most in need.
This happens after every game and event at Rogers Place, with little fanfare. Unused food is packaged and donated to the Mustard Seed and Boyle Street regularly.
Perhaps a function of magnitude.
7 tons of food is worth millions.
Do you honestly think Rogers Place isn’t doing the same as in Vancouver with games postponed?
And I’m hardly congratulating Francesco Aquilini for his tax write off strategy and marketing bonanza that follows when the much maligned Katz is doing the exact same thing basically anonymously.
My point is, how many other arena owners are doing the same thing without patting themselves on the back on Twitter?
This ^ is great to hear!
listened to spittin chiclets today and they had Jim Playfair on. I highly recommend to give it a listen as he gives quite a bit of insight inside the org, the pk, and the players, I was particularly interested in what he had to say on Bouch:
He talks about how impressive his poise and calmness is when he has with the puck and his skills and all that, but Playfair also comments on how he’s helping Bouch try to build his game throughout each year of his ELC. Playfair talks about how he made a deal with Bouch on not only trying to help him with his play away from the puck like putting him in situations to defend (like pk and zone starts) but also a deal to round out his game both offensively and defensively so that when his ELC is up his agent can help him skip a bridge deal and move directly into negotiating a 4-5 year deal. I definitely thought that was interesting to have that sort of coaching support and relationship to help better your game as well as to set up a soldi contract for him in the future. Playfair seems to be the definition of a player’s coach and is really cool to see such insight into his coaching style and his views of the players and prospects in the org.
Playfair also touched on how Bouch was encouraged to do offseason training with Nurse (who he said is the team’s leader in training, another interesting insight) and how Bouch should learn Nurse’s training regime to help set up a sort of training guide for the younger D like Broberg, Nemo and Samorukov.
Highly recommend listening to the interview if you really want insight on the coaching direction of the team, especially since it’s a hot topic right now and everyone seems to have their own opinion on what they think of Tip and the rest of the staff.
Thank You TFB. Will check it out.
The one thing I remember most about Darnell Nurse pre-draft was him commenting on how he loved the gym; loved the process of elite fitness.
What a great advantage that is for any athlete; to actually enjoy working out so much so that the gym is your happy place.
Thanks very much. I don’t listen to the show regularly but only when certain guests are on (I find it hard enough to keep up on all the Oilers’ specific content) so I appreciate the intel and will be listening to that during tomorrow’s workout.
Solid synopsis, thanks.
For those looking, it’s SC episode 365 on your preferred podcast platform. Jim joins at the 1h58m mark.
https://www.barstoolsports.com/podcast/3399116/spittin-chiclets-breaks-huge-story-and-big-js-suddenly-forget-how-to-cite
Mark Spector
@SportsnetSpec
·
4m
Province decrees that the World Junior will operate at 50% attendance. (NHL teams too).
That’s going to be a refund headache for organizers.
Whoa, its not just the world juniors, this will effect the Oilers as well:
Courtney Theriault
@cspotweet
· 13m
BREAKING:
Alberta introduces capacity limits to battle Omicron.
For venues over 1000, it’s 50%
For venues between 5000-1000, capped at 500.
This would include NHL hockey.
#yeg #yyc #ableg #Covid19ab
Show this thread
Not just 50%.
No food or beverages can be consumed in the building. No concessions.
I think you cant consume sitting in your seat (so ppl wear masks). But i could be wrong
Nope – not under the new restrictions.
Chris Jones back. Edmonton Elks doubling down hard. Be tough to cheer for them. Cheer for the players, I guess, because the franchise is a mess.
Here’s a simple solution to this pathos:
Rename them the Edmonton Caucasions
For more daring try : The Edmonton Anti-Vaxxers
The name change lost them a lot of long time fans and the younger generation has no interest in the CFL. You reap what you sow.
3-11 record will do that
I don’t think it was the name change. More like the general cluelessness of the board. They have a history of allowing toxic individuals to permeate through the organization. If you allow it, you condone it. Management 101.
They then tried to double-back by alienating the people who will pay the majority of the bills until they can successfully pivot their demographic. I speak of course of the faux-woke statement about old white guys.
I think fans of all are smart enough that they know when someone is trying to deflect onto a punching bag.
And then they hire back Chris Jones. From what I remember, he is not a people person. They have basically hired someone who doesn’t want to do the job unless he has total control. What else is in Management 101? Never go back. Always Be Changing. ABC. Lazy hire, but maybe the only one they could have made. they have burnt so many bridges with other people.
The Edmonton Elks and Chris Jones deserve each other. The fans and players deserve better.
The beginning of the end was the hiring of Ed Hervey and Kavis Reed.
I’ve had personal interactions with both and can assure you I have never met anyone who was more arrogant in thinking the rules didn’t apply to them.
Chris Jones returning strikes me as doubling down on the same failed management strategy.
What a silly reason to stop cheering/supporting a sports team (in my opinion).
Are you a season ticket holder?
Considering I live in Calgary, nope.
Not sure what that has to do with my opinion on effect of a team name change on fandom.
If you were correct in your statement it would mean there are a lot of very smart hockey fans in Ottawa and Vancouver! It’s the first sideways complement I can recall you giving HH. Must be the Christmas season!😉
As a Riders fan, I approve of this hiring.
Give the man as many hats as can fit his head and the inflated ego within.
Mrs. Lowetide is saying the same things. So that’s TWO chunks of coal for Christmas. 🙂
Why is she getting two now? 😀
You married well, good sir.
I like the use of all caps here for headings, LT. Looks sharp.
HUNTER1909 2021-22 DEATHMARCH END OF YEAR LEADERS:
TIPS
agent_sid
@ Oilers finishing with 102 points.
thank you for your cooperation
Per Stauffer:
Moving forward.
Could see the @EdmontonOilers deploy an internal solution for 3C and then add 2 forwards by the trade deadline.
One of those additions will be a player already in the organization…the other…likely a winger could be added via trade.
——————
Of course the only reasonable internal option is Dylan Holloway but there are many thresholds to meet before we get there. Here is hoping.
Is he referring to RNH moving to 3C?
God I hope so. The recent (and not so recent) analytics suggests this team should be built around 3 solid lines that can break-even or better at 5v5, and win games on special teams.
Way easier to have 97-29-93 anchoring their own lines and to acquire another Foegele than to expend draft picks and cap space on acquiring JT Miller or Yani Gourde.
I bet Holland adds a winger, trades Koskinen for another goalie, and adds another depth vet D for the playoff run.
I think you will be close on your prediction depending on the Klefbom rumours.
Yes. That is how I interpreted what he was saying.
I agree with Material Elvis and John Chambers. Nuge to 3C. Agree with OP that the internal forward is Holloway.
The winger from outside has to be Evander Kane. Nobody is giving up prime prospects for him, and SJ will be eating some money on that contract.
I think Klef is coming back.
So. My prediction is Kassian + Koskinen out, Kane + Klef in. SJ retains some cap on Kane, maybe we send them someone like Lavoie as a sweetener.
Hyman McDavid Puljujarvi
Kane Draisaitl Yamamoto
Foegele Nuge Holloway
McLeod Ryan Sceviour
Nurse Bouchard
Klef Ceci
Keith Barrie
Yeah that’ll do.
Per Oilers Access (a great follow for aggregation of news):
Xavier Bourgault got promoted to the top line with Cole Perfetti and Shane Wright yesterday. Some quotes:
Dave Cameron: “His overall hockey sense. His smarts. We need a mix in there of a 200-foot game.”
Perfetti: “He’s fast & smart…he’s got that goal-scoring touch.”
He had better come with the sunglasses!
(Not to mention the players he took with him.)
Rational: Well, he’s never coached the Elks.
Is Chychrun really that much better than Oscar Klefbom? 😉
Klefbom is playing?
Chychrun is playing?
He’s on the IR, again.
Weird take
While he’s had a run of injuries right after being drafted he’s been very healthy last 3 years and was only expected to miss 3 games but team got shot down
Next year is a contract year.
NO OLYMPICS!?!
The NFL playoffs just got a whole lot more interesting.
The woman’s Hockey final between U.S and Canada is a must see.
If we’re in a rain delay, I’d prefer to set up a slip n’ slide from 3rd base to home plate.
Pure math has no bias. How the results of math are interpreted, and the conclusions that are drawn, are wrought with bias, and the victim of variability and circumstance (sometimes called “chance”)
I’d PAY MONEY to see the math results of, using Baders’ chart, comparing a few (or all) teams success rates, when compared to just selecting the next name up on Mackenzie’s list.
#DraftingRel
Apparently there is some reporting from Friedman that the Oilers are out on Chychrun for now.
The ask was Broberg and two 1st’s.
Oh. That’s too much. I was thinking Taylor Hall one-4-one.
The rights to Omark?
I swear I didn’t read your post before submitting mine.
Nice to know peyote button consumption is still a thing in Arizona.
HAha! Peyote, you don’t try it; It try’s you!
I think Chyka lost his job when he switched from Peyote to Ayahuasca.
#Airplane
“Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit Peyote”
“You guys see the size of that chicken?!?”
They wouldn’t do Chychrun for Koskinen, Omark, and a 2nd round pick?
All good. We actually might be able to get Weber now for Omark.
Edmonton would be nuts to do that!
That’s actually not a unreasonable ask especially that it would require a cap dump
An implied cap dump? 😉
I don’t have specific knowledge but I think Olympic hockey will be played without fans in the stands.
It likely won’t be worth watching on TV either.
I would imagine Russia will send a team of KHL stars while Canada, the U.S., Sweden and Finland send some version of Spengler Cup squads.
Given that hockey is the signature event of the winter games, I would imagine NBC is already tallying up its losses.
It won’t be worth watching for you but don’t speak for anyone else.
It will be worth watching for me and for various others.
Of course, its not long the “best on best – nation vs. nation” tournament I crave but its still something I will watch and enjoy.
I did in 2018 and, yes, of course, the “Russians” will be the favourites and they won gold in 2018 – in OT over Germany remember.
I cheered on Canada to a bronze, and I will do again.
I couldn’t give a shit about NBC’s ratings for it.
This has been confirmed for a while now. NO FANS
The Who!
Now you’re talkin baby!
Now you’re rockin baby!
Stones are made for skippin. 😉
Who am I?
I feel a little like a dying clown,
With a streak of Rin Tin Tin.
Ok, this “chances” thing has ground my gears for a long time. Does Bader mean that there is a 97.7% probability that the player you picked in the first round will have a meaningful NHL career, or that 97.7% of players chosen in the first round have meaningful NHL careers. Because they are NOT the same thing.
Probability does not equal chance. A chance is a singular or series of events with no discernable cause. The probability is the weighted possibility of this event happening.
Probability does not equal odds. Odds is the ratio of the probability an event will occur divided by the probability it won’t.
When some talk about chances and misses and walkabouts, it implies that there is absolutely no other factors that have any effect on your pick; you can simply pick anyone in the first round as you have a 97.7% chance that the player will be an NHL player.
It is more accurate to say that by the criteria and grades we set for our first round picks, this player has the most possibility to become an NHL player.
And that’s it. The rounds mean nothing apart the order in which you pick. Teams scout pretty much the same and your successes and failures lay in the outliers.
For every Nail Yakupov, there is a Pavel Datsyuk. I’m not even sure how to factor in team that draft a “bust” that goes on to success with other teams, or the previously successful free agent that falls off a cliff. But I know it isn’t by chance.
As a word nerd, I’m here for this post. Thank you. I found your description elucidating.
Doing these will be more fun in the future – nailed a superstar in 2014 and 2015, with ’15 potentially delivering FOUR NHLers, 1 each in the 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.
I know I’ll get in trouble for saying this, but the subsequent drafts all have the potential to deliver 2-3 NHL players each, which is phenomenal. Not sure the star potential, but I suppose it’s within the realm of possibility that Bourgault, Puljujarvi, Holloway and Bouchard get at least to the Eberle/Nuge level, and, if you squint a little, even Savoie, Broberg and Petrov have an outside chance.
I think one of the major things that helps this iteration of oilers prospects more than those in the past is that we already have the high end talent in place.
Whereas Nugent Hopkins, Eberle and Hall, along with paajarvi and omark, not to mention Dubnyk, Petry, Schultz and klefbom, were all expected to be top 6 forwards, top 4 dmen or starting Goalies years before they should have been, the oilers have those pieces.
Even when somebody like Bourgault or Holloway is tasked with the 1LW spot, they’re given it to provide balance and McDavid and Puljujarvi will shoulder the brunt of the assignment. The rookies will likely get to start on line 3 and work up, or be given top line assignments with help to make them successful. Rookie Bouchard is higher than he should be in the lineup if he’s on the top pairing, but veteran Darnell Nurse is leagues better than pairing Schultz on the top pairing with Nikitin.
Very good point. The probabilities of success just went up!
The number of games a player playes in the NHL depend on how long he is perceived to be a better choice than the next available tweener fighting for the spot.
It helps the chance of a draftee to play >200 games when many of the older tweeners /expired stars are forced off the AHL roster to contract buyouts(Wade Redden clause at 800k to 1M cap hit exemption) or to oversea leagues (roster veteran limits).
On the other hand, the lock-outs and covid cancelled games makes 200 games more difficult (same number of new players getting drafted every year but fewer games x roster spots).
Can’t agree more.
Then, add the potential (based on trajectory) of contributing actors to carve out meaningful careers (the Nemos, Berglunds, Bensons, McLeods, et al) and there’s a lot to be optimistic about on the horizon.
It seems we’re at a critical mass of managerial competence and drafting acumen that we haven’t seen the likes of in an age.
I don’t know if Nurse is a star or not.
I don’t know if Nurse is worth the money.
I don’t know Nurse’s “fancy stats,” so my perspective is limited.
I also miss watching a lot of games.
On the other hand, If I were on an NHL team, had to go through an 82 game regular season and a grueling playoff in order to win a championship, his stick would be one of the first I would pick out of the pile at the rink.
Additionally, he’s the last dude I would want to meet in a dark alley. I’ve seen him take some bigger, stronger boys behind the woodshed for a good shit kicking. (sorry about the language)
Guys like him are tough to beat and I think many players on opposing teams know it.
I guess, it’s a little obvious, I like Darnell Nurse. Whether or not he’s all things we agree or disagree on, I also think he’s exactly what the Oilers need.
But I could be wrong…
Welcome to the blog, Mr. Holland!
Well thanks ArmchairGM, Yes, yes, very much agreed, I’m no Ken Holland, not much data or experience to back up my “fanboy” point of view about Mr. Nurse. Conversely if you are referring to me as the lead character in “Mr. Holland’s Opus” my feelings may be hurt, that was a bad movie.
He’s unique.
Larry Robinson is the only other player that checks all boxes Nurse does to my mind.
That’s a hell of name to be next to.
You read my mind Genjutsu. I was thinking of “The Big Bird” when I wrote the post. For me, he was one of the most underrated players ever. I think one year he was plus “one million” or something. (my deep understanding of analytics, sorry about that) Additionally, no one would fight him because he could stand a mile away from you and knock your head off. LOL
You can like Nurse and still admit that there are players that are better than him
That there are players that have better facets to their game is something I would be willing to contemplate and or even agree with but if we are talking the whole package maybe not so much!
Absolutely agree.
That’s definitely true, but I think Nurse deserves more pumping than he’s generally gotten. Respect for his game has been really slow to develop in a lot of corners.
IIRC, following Klefbom’s injury there were lots of questions about whether Nurse could handle 1st pair or whether he was just a ‘top 4’ D. That’s only 12-18 months ago. Likewise there were lots of questions about whether he was worth his current $5.6M contract.
He did take a big step forward last season, but the Nurse skepticism goes at least back to his rookie season (some analysis then that defensemen who score 69-3-7-10 essentially never become contributors in the o-zone).
Anyway, IMO Nurse has gotten far fewer fanboy posts over the years than he deserves. His fancy stats back up his value quite well too FWIW.
“There is an 11.6 percent chance of finding an NHL player, so it’s difficult to get angry over 10 straight misses. It’s also true that you can’t multiply the percentage times the total number of picks and come up with 1.16 NHL players as an expectancy”
The expectancy is 1 – .884^10 = 70% chance of a hit.
Is that correct?
Calculating probabilities was never my strong suit, but your equation looks like it would never equal more than 1 player in 10.
Isn’t it .116+.116+.116… ten times? Equals 1.16 players? I took LT to mean reality never quite follows the math rather than that isn’t what’s actually expected.
I’m really not certain how to calculate the probability though.
On average every 10 picks yields 1.16 players, but within every 10 random picks there are 30% chance you won’t find any. These two are not mutually exclusive descriptions.
0000100000
0000000010
0000001100
0100000000
0000100000
0001110000
0000000000
0001000000
0000000000
0000001000
There are eleven “1” s in the above 10×10 square(somewhat random fashion). Probably of finding a “1” on one pick is 0.11(11/100).
If you count by rows there are two rows that don’t have a “1”.
If you count by columns there is 3 columns that doesn’t have any.
If you count by blocks of 2x5s or 5x2s you will find 2 blocks that doesn’t have any.
Therefore for this particular distribution you have about 20%~30% chance not finding a “1” in 10 picks, but this is not the only distribution you can assign 11 “1”s in 100 spots.
—
Something something UofA engineering something something.
It’s correct.
1.multiplication rule If A and B are independent events, we can reduce the formula to P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B).
2. Complement Rule: P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
P(A hit) = 1 – P(no hits) = 1 – P(no hit) ^ num years
Probability cannot be more than 1. You flipped from probability to quantity of players.
Correct, the above is the probability of at least one hit not the expected number of hits.
Yup.
Let me add for JP as this old-school example might clear some cobwebs…
The chance of flipping back-to-back heads with a coin that has no memory is 0.5 * 0.5.
Or 25%. That’s the specific multiplicative rule.
If you had done it by summing the probabilities, you would have yielded a probability of 1, or 100%, which you know cannot be true.
Now, in a system with memory, ie dependent events, if you have a two pairs of pants in the closet, one brown, one blue, and you grab one without looking you have a 50% chance of getting it right on your first grab, 100% chance with two grabs.
In the draft, past failure doesn’t guarantee future success. The dice have no memory. So we can’t add.
Thanks all for the answers.
This from kelvjn immediately jogged my memory. I was indeed conflating probability with the expected number of players.
The 70% chance (0.7) from TheGreatBigMac’s original post got me thinking probable number of players but forgot the 70% chance of a hit also included some multiple hit scenarios.
Appreciate the clarification.
LT: that Plante pick was a dud at t=0.
My lesson from this post is, be careful with D. Forwards declare themselves sooner than later, to some degree, but D can take time and you must be patient to reap the rewards of that scouting and development.
developing D is a huge commitment and they look akward as hell before they get there 200 games in. Plante had no chance being developed by that current oiler regime
It’s that fine tightrope you need to walk. I think with high choice D, look for those with high end skating skills, good awareness and puck skills such as passing and shooting. Long rushes by D are not the norm and shouldn’t be expected as players move up in leagues to the NHL.
But analytics still fail to capture good goalies and good defensemen as well as they capture good forwards. Eventually the analytics will catch up but right now we know Bourgault likely bottoms out as a bottom 6 player, which is still useful. Wallstedt or Cossa are still on the fence between “perrenial Vezina candidate” and “Justin pogge but without the WJC”
And sometimes it still takes 10 years, ala Jack Campbell.
you need to give them a chance just like Skinner
Most high drafted D that can skate actually turn out
a Lot of issues with these Dylan Mcilrath types that went way higher than they should have
Slater Koekkoek says hello as a reminder that you’re bang on the money.
1st round D have to be plus skaters. 1st rounders who are not plus skaters are high risk for busting.
I generally agree with your premise.
But it does make me wonder what leads to fantastic players like Keith or Subban or Josi (and others) being drafted in the second round or later when skating was one of those player’s noteworthy traits? Is that a result of changing landscape within the league?
Probably lack of eye catching junior offensive numbers due to usage or late blooming.
With all the recent chatter surrounding Chychrun, it will be interesting to see if the Oilers can finally be patient. My position: don’t trade for him.
You have Bourgeault, Holloway, Savoie, and Broberg who can be a solid pipeline of cost-controlled talent. Broberg, in particular, is going to help sooner than later. By now, it’s clear that his development has been supra-linear. He’s coming along as fast as he skates, which is to say, very quickly.
Woodcroft was positively glowing about Broberg. If he can get the shift length down and start going all-out, look out. Reminds me a bit of Bouchard, who was known for taking longer shifts in junior.
It’s a test for fans, too: after Petry, Bear, and now watching Bouchard, will you be patient?
As for the forwards, you don’t have to look further than Zegras to see how impactful young F can be.
Would love to get Chychrun for the right price. His contract has value. But maybe we should fix the 3C and goaltending holes first.
Chychrun would be fantastic to add to this team, especially with his contract, and I would part with the 1st round pick plus Broberg but simply cannot throw in a 3rd “A rated asset” in to the trade.
I can’t give up that much “high end future” to acquire a player at a position that isn’t high on the list of need – not to mention an player that has an injury history.
Yes, the team is “all-in” but I hate that phrase as the team can’t just trade important futures for immediate help with reckless abandon and disregard.
I sure hope the window is longer than one year and the team will be contending for at least 4 years and hopefully much longer when the elite re-sign.
In order to do that, it is 100% a must that there is a prospect train that provides huge value contracts with players playing material roles on their ELCs. We have Bouchard now and, to a lesses extent, McLeod.
We can’t just trade all of Bourgault, 1st round picks, Holloway, etc.
Holloway coming in for 2 (plus) year on his ELC – that is MASSIVE.
We need at least one of those players arriving yearly.
I haven’t watched Chychrun and will accept the general consensus that he is the goods.
That said, do we know how good Broberg will be? 11 points in 15 games at age 20 is better than Nurse/Bear/Bouchard/Jones/Klefbom/Petry. I still remember that quote from Broberg’s coach, about him being the top D talent he has ever played with / coached. Woodcroft was practically gushing about him.
As good as Chychrun is on that contract, Broberg very well may be top 4 already next year, and that’s a supreme value.
Imagine if Broberg takes the second half jump that we’ve seen recently from guys like Holloway and Bouchard.
Dealing Broberg could easily be a fatal mistake. Teams are winning with young D; we can, too.
Absolutely Broberg could turn out to be better than Chyckrun.
Of course, he very well may not turn out to be as good.
What we do know is that, right now, today, Chychkrun is better and almost certainly for the next few years.
Of course there is risk in the trade but the team improves immediately and in the short-term. Not to mention, Chychrun is 23, not even in his prime yet – he’ll get better.
Yes, the points in his 20-year old AHL season are nice – lets not forget they are mostly on the PP (I think all but 3).
I don’t want to trade Broberg, not even a bit, but that’s the type of deal that would make sense to me (given we’d have Nurse/Chychrun on the left side going forward) and how much it improves the team now.
Frankly, I don’t think that asset currency for a LD is the best way to spend it – if Holland was going to go such big-game hunting.
My only point of contention with your post is about Bouchard and his shift length in juniour. He was playing 30+ minutes per game due in part to the fact that the London Knights had traded away a sizeable portion of their talent and he was next man up, and handled the assignment with aplomb.
Prob discussed yesterday, but Bourgault was moved to Top Line at World Juniors.
He has the most CLub Team G / GP (22 in 24) of anyone on the roster
Bourault was really interesting his preseason games. Though he clearly was not quite ready yet for the NHL (despite 1g and 1a in 2gp), he showed that he’s a really high IQ offensive player. He was able to make things happen and read plays very well.
I haven’t watched him outside of the preseason games, but he strikes me as a really smart hockey player.
Apparently he brings a much better 200-ft game than Guenther, which us why he was moved up. That bodes well for his transition to pro next (spring?) fall, as pro coaches give out offensive minutes based on trust defensively.
More well-rounded but possibly better offensively than Guenther, whose calling card is offense. The Wright amateur drafting team has been nailing it, even though I have felt underwhelmed on the last three draft days (what the hell do I know).
With the Q being shut down through the new year, he now won’t miss any more club games, which is kind of a bonus.
I would give Nurse a star and Petry, too. Both guys are legit top pairing D. A Nurse – Petry pairing would have been something, eh?
What is the criteria for “star” defensemen? Nurse certainly brings enough offense.
Agreed, if Nuge gets a star so do Nurse and Petry IMO. All of them could be debatable in that category, but I don’t see Nuge as more valuable than the D.
If you take the star odds per round multiply 30 (teams) and then sum, it adds up to 6.96 stars per year (of which the first rounder contributed 4.77 stars; top 5 pick contributed 2.77 stars). It is an exclusive list that basically only count the top 7 players in the draft as star.
The other way looking at this is 7 players/ year x 8 years, or the top 56 players drafted between 05’~13′ are count as stars.
Would RNH or Nurse made the cut as Stars?
Is that fair to assume? I suppose maybe the terminology isn’t fitting since we typically categorize it differently. In my opinion I classify the league in terms of:
– elite players
– superstars
– stars
– regulars
-specialists
-fringe
Seems this model maybe only takes “superstar” players as their star players?
Stats is stats. Whether this model is a useful description of the reality depend on what you plan to use it for.
For example, this is a perfectly fine model to show the odds of finding top 7 player in a draft.
Seravelli reporting that the NHL/NHLPA have agreed NOT to go to the Olympics – once the IOC is informed, there will be a formal announcement.
I know “they” won’t be watching, as I learned last night, but I will be.
Yes, my level of enthusiasm for the tournament and emotional involvement will be WAY down, and I’m super bummed about it, but I’ll still be paying attention and watching.
No offence to the athletes, but I simply won’t be interested.
And I’ll be relying on you to update all things Canadian on this blog. Thanks in advance.
This is the right call. I think it’s tougher for the players than it is for the fans.
It’s sad how corrupt the IOC is. I know so many players dream of playing in the Olympics, but they are not what they used to be. I wonder if the NHL will send players any time soon. They can’t risk star players being quarantined for 5 weeks in a communist country.
Of course, the decision not to go has nothing to do with the IOC and corruption – its 100% covid-related.
I totally understand your take on the Olympics not being what they used to be for reasons stated but I am fully confident that, for the players that would have been going, they would have been 100% fully engaged, just as ever, and IOC corruption would not have been a factor when competing for their country on the first “best on best” in closing in on a decade.
Unless we have another pandemic, the players will be going in 2026 – if quarantine is still an issue then, well, we have bigger life issues.
I wouldn’t have watched if they had gone, and I would prefer this be over China and not Covid, but I am pleased they are staying home.
You wouldn’t have watched for your stated reasons – your choice – fair enough.
I would have watched with huge interest (and will still watch, much less invested mind you) – my choice.
No star for Nurse – interesting.
I would posit that he was a star last season – PHWA thinks so.
How many Canadian Olympians are not stars (when NHL players attend) – we’ll probably never know but he was certainly in the conversation.
He’ll be paid like a start next season – of that we can be certain.
I like Nurse a lot. I think some of the criticisms of him are outdated; he has more or less improved upon all of his defensive deficiencies from a few years ago. His awareness of the backdoor play, in particular, has grown by leaps and bounds.
I think the contract is just fine. I base that on Broberg and Bouchard being tremendous values for the next couple years, the cap going up, and the fact that Nurse’s performance will improve once Barrie is permanently supplanted as 1 RHD.
Let’s also not forget Nurse has been underpaid for awhile now.
I 100% agree that his defensive game, overall, has improved by leaps and bounds the last few years. Last year I saw huge steps in two particular aspects. First, as you mention, the backdoor play recognition and, second, now going “walkabout” and puck chasing leading to leaving the danger zone unchecked as much.
For me, he had taken a step back in the 2nd category this season and I chalk that up to “trying to do too much”, potentially as a result of the new contract (although it hasn’t kicked in yet).
I have seen him better in that lately, since he came back from injury.
https://lowetide.ca/2021/12/20/reflecting-light/#comment-1068289
https://lowetide.ca/2021/12/20/reflecting-light/#comment-1068335
Not sure I did this correctly but will see. I answered this earlier but thought no one would see it as the new thread was about to go up.