The Edmonton Oilers found a way to make this season exciting in a brand new way. The 15-5-0 start had everyone on easy street, so an absolute ‘hell in a hand basket’ December was constructed to make January to June interesting.
In truth, this is a grim moment for the franchise. It’s possible Edmonton misses the playoffs, and the resulting devastation won’t stop at the coach. So, tonight’s a big night, an important one. Are the Oilers ready for the challenge?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- DNB: Connor McDavid supports Oilers’ pursuit of Evander Kane.
- Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn: NHL Player Cards: Edmonton Oilers
- DNB: Ken Holland speaks
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ 2021 draft decision to select Xavier Bourgault over goaltending
- Lowetide: What’s the gap for Oilers between now and the 2016-17 playoff team?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Will this be another lost season?
- Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen isn’t the Oilers’ biggest summer mistake
- Lowetide: Hard-target search for the Oilers’ next starting goaltender
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- DNB: Time for the Oilers to move on from Mikko Koskinen
- Lowetide: If Oilers plan a coaching change, why stop there?
- New DNB: Exploring how the Oilers can get back on track
- Lowetide: Long December has Oilers fans looking for reasons to believe
- Lowetide: The five most effective Oilers mid-season recalls since 1979-80
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: NYI, NYR, TOR (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-2-1)
- At home to: OTT, FLA, CGY (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MTL, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 4-5-1, 9 points in 10 games
- Actual January results: 0-2-1, 1 point in 3 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 18-14-2, 38 points in 34 games
I have the Oilers winning tonight and then losing in regulation or overtime in all games until the road trip at the end of the month. That may look harsh, and could look ridiculous at the end of the month, but there are enough questions about this team to justify projecting just seven points in seven games.
At the end of November, Edmonton had 30 points in 20 games, 56 percent of the goals, 48.5 percent of the five-on-five goals, and a save percentage of .913.
During December, Edmonton won 7 points in 11 games, 43 percent of the goals, 42 percent of the five-on-five goals, and a save percentage of .883.
In January, the Oilers have one point in three games, 31 percent of the goals, 45 percent of the five-on-five goals, and a save percentage of .878.
Projecting this team to win five of its next seven doesn’t have much favorable evidence. The five-on-five goal share is improved, and I do think the big guns will romp for at least part of the month, but regression doesn’t book a tee time and I’m guessing recovery comes at the end of the month.
THE GOALIES
I think Stuart Skinner is the right call for tonight, Mikko Koskinen the backup. Koskinen has a .907 save percentage in his Oilers career, trailing Mike Smith (.911) by just a little.
The problem is one of the veterans (Smith) can’t stay healthy and the other (Koskinen) can’t stay consistent. So, play the rookie, if he fails then run with the healthy veteran the coach likes.
I think we’re on a track for a Dwayne Roloson trade.
I think it’s likely Koskinen signs in the summer in a new NHL city and has success. It happened for Devan Dubnyk, for Cam Talbot, for Laurent Brossoit.
The Oilers are a drag on goalie performance. Blame the goalie’s workload, blame the defense, blame the forwards. Kind of a drag, good days for the goalie upon exit. Pretty sure that’s correct.
Sutter is a very smart man, and part of what makes him effective is that he’s not trying to impress anyone with complicated systems or ideas. This answer is typical of Sutter, he takes a question that is completely reasonable (you guys don’t win when trailing, do you need a more robust scoring side?) and turns it back on the author of the question.
IS that statistic accurate? Feels like it. No matter, the point is made. “It’s not complicated” is the perfect Sutter answer. God I love clarity.
THE LINES
According to reports from yesterday’s practice, Dave Tippett is going to run Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on a line. I expect he’s going to chase that first goal, and the lead, and run his two best players hard.
Hockey is a funny game, you know. Why? Well, there’s a randomness to it, call it luck, or whatever, but there’s a good chance another line will score and the Oilers’ second unit won’t be as strong without Draisaitl.
Tippett is probably overthinking things, or relying too much on the past, and it’s easy to tear him apart for it. Honestly, don’t know if I would do things differently with my job on the line.
HOCKEY
I missed the Oilers but honestly this team is a lot of work. The team needs a goalie but the management is still waiting on Mike Smith, the team needs a strong left blue but you get those at the deadline don’t you know. Holland said the other day you have to build through the system, and that’s true.
However, when you have Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov and Markus Niemelainen, it affords one the opportunity to send away a piece of the future for some help right now.
Holland spent heavily at his first deadline, more discreetly at his second one. I’d suggest the play here is not to wait for this year’s deadline, find a goalie and a defenseman who can settle down the group in the immediate aftermath of tonight’s game.
What are they waiting for? We’ve always done it this way is the worst answer in history.
NEW for The Athletic: Before each season, I run a ‘reasonable expectations’ series. How are the Oilers doing? Is everyone covering the bet? Anyone exceeding expectations? Here’s a look
https://theathletic.com/3071602/2022/01/15/lowetide-midseason-review-of-oilers-reasonable-predictions-for-2021-22/
LT needed some extra sleep after last night.
Whelp, the Condors won.
Again…
I checked in on our NCAA prospects and UNH is on a roll. Filip Engaras isn’t scoring, but he is still 2nd in scoring on the team. Tied with Engaras is Colton Huard (former journeyman NHLer Bill’s son) and he is making big a big splash for them. He is an undrafted 20 year old freshman 6’4” RHD and has 12 pts in 16 games. He does not play on the PP and leads the team in +\-. He is not an offense-oriented Dman, but he is a puck-mover who brings significant dzone acumen. He is a player to keep in mind, because he has a Jeff Petry vibe, but will be better sooner (I am quite certain). He is a better skater than John Marino and everywhere he’s played he leads in +/-. FWIW, I predicted that Marino would go straight to the NHL. To be clear, I think this fella is a substantial prospect and has a chance to make the show within the next 2 years, he is good (and undrafted).
With all the “world is ending” talk, just thought I’d share this (to me at least) exciting discovery.
Better than Petry is pretty lofty, but the kid definitely looks like an interesting prospect with a chance of making it. Nice find.
What happens now?
https://twitter.com/IAmByks/status/1482550481452888065
Sorry, I don’t get it….is this something more than a Seinfeld reference (which I don’t get either)?
Oh nothing, I just thought it was funny.
What Varlamov going to cost us?
I don’t think Varlamov will be had, he has a NTC and is 33. The obvious target is Georgiev, but NYR are making noise, they aren’t moving him.
I wonder if Murray and his NTC could be had…he has seemingly has rediscovered his game and perhaps Ottawa would be willing to part with him for Koskinen, Lavoie or Rodrigue and a 2nd & a 3rd rounder, retaining $1.75 million. Or maybe Dreidger is it for a similar package minus picks.
Everyone knows Holland is desperate. I can’t see Boston trading Ullmark who also has a NTC. Maybe we end up with Carey Price somehow (it would be due to Price wanting to move).
Hi Ryan,
It took 2 days, but I see what you did there…. I am so far behind, I think I’m ahead, lol. Same as it ever was….
I remember seeing the shot clock at 24-14 at one point and thinking they’re dominating this game. They started every period with strong shifts. But they yet again shot themselves in the foot.
Three mistakes come to mind. The two penalties which led to the powerplay goals against that bookended the match. Skinner’s bad decision. And that’s a typical rookie mistake too, sadly.
They’re finding ways to lose right now through undisciplined, incautious play. They haven’t played a hard, tight, well-structured 60 minutes I think more than twice this season.
Ottawa isn’t the better team. We handed them the game.
It better not be Fleury incoming.
They simply can’t continue on with Tipps, there’s zero identity, zero reason for mostly all of the deployment.
They simply hold the puck against the boards in the corners and hope to not get scored on. Every single game, one after the next.
Holland owns lots of blame, but Tippett is not in touch with the 5×5 game at all any longer.
A 3rd line centre
Top 6 LW & RW
1 maybe 2 LHD
Top 4 RHD
A legit top 10 goalie.
With zero cap space.
Holland is Peter Chairelli
No coach alive would get this team in the playoffs with this roster.
Really:
3C – McLeod is filling that role nicely recently and, tonight, to my eyes, was even just fine as a 2C. I’m not sure that McLeod isn’t on the cusp of being a legit 3C with upside right now.
Top 6 winger: Well, add Nuge in to tonight’s lineup? Evander Kane would go a long ways
LD – Ya, Lagesson had a tough 3rd and Kokekkoek isn’t much better, if any, and Russell can only play a couple of games at his age, etc. With that said, Duncan Keith was fire last night and he’s been every bit a legit 2LD that last while now.
When will it be acknowledged that Holland must be fired, like this afternoon?
He is an abject incompetent.
Holland / Tippett are Tommy Lee Jones and this game was the closing scene of No Country for Old Men.
After a break that was gifted to us, we come back and lose to the Ottawa Senators….the team we completely dominated last year. A team that doesn’t deserve to be on the same ice as the talent on our team. And we lose. This team is lost…beyond comprehension.
It actually felt like the NHL finally felt bad for us and said here’s the easiest way we could think of to help you get out of your slump.
And we squander it.
KH better hold onto that 1st rounder, most likely going to be a top 5 pick.
We lost … at home.
The Verdict:
Oilers are a “Must Lose” kind of team.
Really it’s all goaltending again tonight. I didn’t like any of the goals on Skinner in the third, but to gift the Sens the tying goal on a mistake out of his net was unforgivable.
Other than that I thought they played well and carried the play. They lost some steam late in the game, after COVID and a long break maybe it’s expected. But damn, can’t buy a save!
Can Evander Kane play goal?
That was the worst I’ve seen from this team all year and it’s not close.
Goalies have bad games it happens.
Skinner could have grabbed a job right there. Maybe the pressure got him?
Just wow… The OIlers will never win until they learn how to be hard to play against.
This team reminds me of the saying “hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard” far more often than I’d like.
Embarrassing performance. So much for Laggeson’s game. Skinner was bad. McD looked defeated in his presser.
They need a goalie bad.
social media is going nuts for Tippet’s pumpkin.
Embarrassing night for this organization
You can always tell the team is in trouble, aside from the terrible record. McDavid and Draisaitl start trying impossible passes to each other that lead to chances the other way. Good D starts in the O zone. Thought Human’s game was good.
This is turning out to be one of the worst squanderings of 2 superlative talents ever.
Seriously, whenever else has a transformational player like McDavid NOT come close to or won a championship in their first 6 years?
Ovechkin.
The Caps have only gone deep once and that was the year they won it all.
Second and first round punts other than that.
Had a lot of regular season success though.
Also Mario. And Phil Esposito.
Both won the cup in their 7th years though.
Does Lindros count? What about Hasek?
Yzerman
Sakic in his eighth
Hope dies a slow, painful death for Oiler fans. So against all logic I’m hoping this serves as a wake-up call for Katz. Holland’s utter inability to deal with the goaltending issue is laughable at this point. Every game we literally give the opposition a goal – just give them a goal. Was there anyone watching this game anywhere who actually thought Ottawa wouldn’t score if they got even a single shot on that last PP! As bad as Skinner was tonight, the loss isn’t on him. It’s on the GM.
No it’s on Skinner. And normally that wouldn’t be the worst thing but yea this was bad.
You want your GM to bet on Skinner in this situation.
No doubt he was bad in the third … but the Oilers have no hope of making the playoffs this season, at this point, so I still prefer letting Skinner have the net for the rest of the season.
You run the risk of destroying his confidence. At this point, however, a desperation trade for a goalie will almost certainly be horrific.
Pretty good effort.
McDavid looked shattered in the presser.
Bring on Kane. Oh, they might need a D. And a goalie. Ruh roh.
Can we just fire Holland tonight?
Not before he fires Tipp.
Good answer by Connor. “What else do you expect me to do?”
Well, playing with Drai and he was 0-1 goals at 5 on 5.
No offence to you OP, but it looks like we’re at that stage of the downward spiral where we’re blaming the best players. Yes, I know you don’t feel that way.
I wasn’t “blaming”, I was stating a fact.
McDavid and Drai played together tonight and didn’t score (only McDavid was on for a 5 on 5 goal against).
Tonight, that line didn’t perform near their abilities or expectations, even reasonable expectations.
That line started the game against the Sens 4th line – iced the puck 7 seconds in.
Looked and sounded defeated.
played like it too… talent is great, maybe try being hard to play against… Oh yea, backchecking on every shift would be nice too.
For this reason alone this team needed a new coach ten games ago … I would love for Torts to be the next coach, cause we already know he won’t be shy about demanding better two-way from Connor and Leon
Go Oilers!
Has Kane signed that contract yet? If not, he probably just put his pen away.
It’s called a Timeout. It can be used to give your team a rest. Or. It could be used to stop the bleeding. You know really the troops.
It’s called a Timeout. It can be used to give your team a rest. Or. It could be used to stop the bleeding. You know rally the troops.
Yep. Way underutilized
The sens put up 5 goals in the 3rd. Can they all be blamed on Skinner? At what point can someone other than the players be blamed? And do we need to wait until the season is over to act upon it? Acting late in sports is no different from acting poorly or not acting at all.
I think you can pin three on Skinner and three on Bouch/Lagesson who were unbelievably bad that period as well.
PK was too cautious but Skinner blew his post on the winner.
This is on Holland for ending up here – relying on a mid tier rookie G to save the season
The goalie behind the net giveaway play I blame on the coaching. It happens too often.
There is a lot more too add to the coaching.
It is 100% essential for a goalie at the NHL level to be able to play the puck behind the net and make a pass to his d-man. No, not to the Mike Smith level of aggressiveness, etc. but, if a goalie is not able to make simple plays outside his crease, he can’t play in the NHL.
Kenny cannot just sit back and let this continue. It’s either a bad trade or a new coach. I’d like to avoid the trade.
Just checked the score!
I see the Oilers worst defence in 25 yrs at it again.
Thanks Ken Holland!
So 80’s Dinosaurs, Let’s pretend their is still .865 starter save% avg rather than .915 avg.
We can talk about how we need to improve our offence.
You can continue to tell me how our career bottom 30 def dmen
Keith, Nurse, Barrie, Klefbom, Bouchard
Bottom 10 Def dman Bromberg
are the best thing that happened to the Oilers!
That only allowing .50 GAA to 1.75 GAA is driven by fwd Corsi def play (BAHAHAHAHAHA)
Ken Holland is fucking brutal!
What is your point?
The D is good or bad?
I think he’s calling it one of the worse D corps ever for the team.
Fire Holland tonight!
an abject incompetent
no goalie
You actually fit right in now. 👍
It was good CECI ripped that guys helmet off …cost game
Looked like his stick was tipped up, not sure if there was much he could do.
Epitome of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Turning out to be the most disappointing season of the McDavid era.
When do we start talking about the draft?
Let’s be honest … the answer to that question is now.
But is that such a bad thing … this is a deeply flawed roster. But … being well out of a playoff spot is the only thing that will trigger a sell off.
This team was 16-5 after 21 games.
they are now 18-15-2.
WHAT IN THE ACTUALLY FUCK!?
Yep. 2-10-2 in those latest 14… but let’s keep preaching process and patience.
Pretty harsh. Epic defensive breakdowns. Poor netminding. Now what?
Ken will say .. “what do you want?”
Take 2 aspirins and call me in the morning.
Prepare three envelopes.
If this iteration makes the playoffs, it would take quite the internal turnaround. It’s not just the losing, it’s the way they’re losing, it’s their body language, it’s their response to adversity, it’s the Leaf trolls indicting the org for wasting talent having a point. This honestly feels worse than the worst days in the DoD.
5 unanswered goals in the 3rd. That is not acceptable
Not quite 5 unanswered – Nurse scored, that was an answer….
Moral victories….
But OTT is a powerhouse
Holy F. A desperate backhand clear curls into the net.
Goaltending ends another coaching tenure. I think Tip may just want to go hang out with Maurice and drink whiskey anyway
There are teams with average or worse goaltending that keep it together. This is a weak team in front of a weak tender.
Absolutely. The D Zone was a circus act in the 3rd. So reactive – and way slow to react when they do.
Someone pinch me and wake me up from this nightmare. 😱
Something very rotten in Denmark.
A third period collapse rather than a first period collapse, progress?
For Edm, yes.
Not for good teams
Why do I even bother watching this tire fire?
Could’ve attempted to course-correct 10, maybe even 15 games ago. Nothing has changed. They’re just lighting points on fire at this stage.
This is why when you see fundamental flaws you address them – not sit there hoping.
Any more questions?
YES!
why do our skill players think they can get away with dragging ass every time the play goes the other way… I’m curious how the stats look in regards to how weak defensively our best players are becoming.
Embarrassing loss. Time to clean house.
So back to Koski on Thursday?
Back to Mikko I guess?
You just knew if they got a shot on that PP that it was going in the net.
I wonder if that’s happened before; Norris scored wearing another guy’s helmet.
Gosh this is painful.
Man that is brutal.
Missing RNH
This is funny. Edm was still losing whe RNH was in …
And if you look at the last 10 yrs …
Too much puck watching in the D zone.
Skinner looks fragile. Should have pulled him after goal 3
Skinner, Bouch and Lagesson
What a period to forget.
…there have been a lot of periods to forget. At what point should you start remembering?
Well that’s tough you see cause I keep reading that we need to play more young players but then they go and shit the bed and cost the rest of the team a game.
I dunno how you draw up a shittier than those three players had.
Lagesson burnt on the 2 on 1, Bouch getting nothing in the pass and Skinner with his glove down on the 3-2.
Skinner coughing it up behind the net on the 3-3 and Lagesson covering no one.
Bouchard screening Skinner who was down early again on the 4-3
And then Skinner pushing to hard across in the winner albeit with a less than inspiring PK ahead of him.
that’s a meltdown from three rookies simultaneously. Everyone else played fine odd enough and battled back.
Young players break hearts and get coaches fired and man that was a bad one.
Wow the penalty killing is brutal. Way too passive, imo.