There are several stories that could dominate for Oilers fans this week, including a suddenly substantial group of prospects pushing from Bakersfield. Dylan Holloway posted three assists in two games on the weekend, as he made his professional debut. Raphael Lavoie scored an impressive goal (what a shot!) and now has scored 7-4-11 in his most recent 11 games, with 51 shots in those games. Philip Broberg picked up an assist in the two games and is now 2-15-17 in 24 games. Stuart Skinner is in Edmonton after posting a .925SP.
After many years of treating the farm team like an affliction, the current Oilers management may be relying too much on the collective futures in Bakersfield. Can these kids deliver?
THE ATHLETIC!
- NEW Lowetide: Leon Draisaitl’s history of long Decembers and what came after
- Lowetide: Three first-shot scorers in Oilers system in a race to make NHL
- DNB: Dylan Holloway resumes road to Oilers after frustrating injury interruption
- Jonathan Willis: Loss underlines how over-reliant Oilers are on offence from the defence
- Lowetide: Making the waiver call on young Oilers players as the deadline approaches
- New DNB: Oilers’ flaws can’t be ignored as losing skid goes from bad to worse
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- DNB: Connor McDavid supports Oilers’ pursuit of Evander Kane.
- DNB: Ken Holland speaks
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
TOP STORIES THIS WEEK
- Evander Kane. I don’t know how this plays out and if he does sign in Edmonton that’s going to release an entirely different kind of emotion, but it’s a possible reality so it’s going to get a lot of attention this week.
- Zach Hyman. He went on the Covid list January 20, I think that means he’ll be ineligble to come off before the Vancouver game but it’s a story worth following.
- Mike Smith. His ongoing aging process may become the hill Ken Holland dies on for this season, and from what I can tell the time of return has gone from ‘day-to-day’ to ‘we’ll let you know’ and that’s pretty damning.
- Tyson Barrie. Based on reports he suffered injuries up and down. When will he be back?
- Stuart Skinner. Will he start in Vancouver?
- Jesse Puljujarvi. Will he get the net-front on the PP because he’s basiscally the modern Phil Esposito?
- Evan Bouchard. Will HE get the RH defense job based on his outstanding performance Saturday?
- Connor McDavid’s wingers.
- Leon Draisaitl’s wingers.
- Deadline assets deemed worthy of trading. Are there any?
CONDORS LAST 10 GAMES (PROSPECTS)
There are some nice prospects on that list, and some real progress over the last 10 games. Lavoie is coming into his own at the AHL level now, that shot is going to get him a look in the next 18 months. Broberg and Holloway are first-round picks showing their pedigree and Kemp has taken a step forward in recent games. Samorukov and Niemelainen have a lot of their value tied up on the defensive side of the puck. Olivier Rodrigue has played in three of the last 10 games and has a .920 save percentage in those games. Nice numbers here.
FORWARDS, 2021-22 (LAST 10 GAMES)
There’s a reasonable story to tell here, Draisaitl and McDavid are in the range of expectation. McDavid is a little low in points, Draisaitl’s goal share is under normal levels, but expected goals are 50+ percent. In fact, the expected goals suggest the team (mostly) has been unlucky during these past 10 games. Nuge’s numbers are an exception, one wonders if he (and others) have been dealing with issues throughout the year. None of the main players can afford to come out of the lineup now, perhaps we’re seeing some of that show up in these numbers.
DEFENSE, 2021-22 (LAST 10 GAMES)
As is the case with the forwards, a more encouraging case than the actual record posted. There are a surprising number of defenders over 1.00 points-per-60, owing in part (I would guess) to the team’s devotion to point shots. It isn’t efficient but the defensive group may have three 30+ point defenders at the end of the year.
Defensively, Nurse has had a crushing six weeks, although his expected goals are in the range of expectation. Duncan Keith has flat out delivered in his minutes in the last 10 games, although there seems to be some disagreement in how much he’s playing against elites compared to other Oilers defenders.
Puck IQ has him at 33.3 percent versus elites, that’s about 5:47 per game. That’s a significant amount, Darnell Nurse is averaging 7:38 a night, Kris Russell 2:34, so Keith would be facing tough competition often. I have read that he’s facing softer competition of late, that will show up (if true) at Puck IQ as the season rolls along.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s a busy and fun show on the Lowdown this morning, starts at 10 on TSN 1260. Scott Wheeler at The Athletic will discuss his Oilers prospects list just released and we’ll have a chance to ask him about specific prospects. If you have a question, don’t hesitate to post in comments or on twitter. Hernan Salas is back and that means another edition of Crossfire!! (pew-pew!) and Jason Gregor will pop in at 11 to talk about the wild and wonderful NFL weekend and the Oilers Saturday win. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
60-27
Good for you.
Byfield sure has been underwhelming since being called up. Played under 10 minutes for the second game in a row, only 1 shot and 0 hits tonight.
Scored a beauty in the shootout.
Remember he’s recovering from a broken leg.
A generational talent would have healed their leg by now
Dylan Holloway hasn’t healed his wrist either.
Vascular anatomy is much different between the two areas.
Skating with a wrist injury is tough 🙂
No matter which body part it is, if you don’t use it you lose it. And have to retrain it and takes a long time
just to be able to do basic functions I’m sure took hours of rehab
Obviously there’s more to hockey than just skating, which classifies your comment an ignorant. Secondly, Byfield is playing less and less minutes every game, which clearly shows what his coach thinks of his play since returning. Heck Holloway in two games back is putting up more points per game in the AHL, his first games in the league, than Byfield did. One was drafted second overall, the other….
One should remember that Byfield has the same head coach in L.A. who was prepared to ruin/discard Puljujarvi on his first tour of duty in Edmonton.
My glimpses of Holloway suggest he is a teachable Taylor Hall with a great work ethic and fine attitude.
Comparing Byfield to Holloway?
never thought you’d compliment an Oilers prospect
Are there contract ramifications of bringing Holloway up vs waiting – in terms of UFA years?
I kinda think the play is to let him bake over the remainder of the season.
By the sounds of it it may be just me.
No – he turned 20 in the fall and this is full contract year no matter how many NHL games he plays.
A season in the AHL does not vest a year toward UFA status. One has to accrue 7 NHL seasons.
Group 3 UFA is achieved when a player either is on the NHL roster for 7 seasons (which is considered 40+ games), or if the player turns 27 before June 30th. So because Holloway turned 20 in September, I think he won’t burn a season if he is on the roster for less than 40 NHL games.
However, there’s also a rule that if a player is injured but still on the roster, the team’s games count towards the 40 games. So I can’t remember, was Holloway technically on the Oilers roster while he was recovering from surgery? I know he was with the team.
You are right on the acrrued seasons and I was mistaken.
I believe the time on IR only counts if it occurs in the season the player was injured.
#FreeBenson
He’s free to go to Europe whenever he wants😉
Get a life.
Flames dominating the Blues with Binnington in net.
6-1 Calgary in the 2nd.
Shots 32 – 8
Complete domination
Shhh…it is verboeten to discuss other teams winning.
Where was that game the other night? Man.
The Flames dominated the Oilers too…Koskinen won the game.
Dominated. Oh my.
Calgary outshot the Oilers 47-31.
Koskinen had an out of world experience at .936
Oh my.
Don’t count of that happening very often…Calgary was the better team from start to finish,
I dunno HH.
The Oilers are 2-0 against the Flames this year. Outscored them 10-5.
Last year the Oilers won the season series 6-4, outscored them 34-28.
Not sure what you’re thinking by ‘very often’.
Some teams have the others number for whatever reason…like the Oilers had over Ottawa last season.
But, at the end of the day, it doesn’t mean much in a normal season.
The way things are unfolding, the Flames may win the Pacific Division depending on the Eichel effect in Vegas.
The Flames have scoring, depth, good D and elite goaltending and a hugely favourable remaining schedule.
If I had to bet…and I will…I would put my money on the Flames.
However, it doesn’t really matter a pinch of coon shit…the Avalanche and Wild are out of this world good.
Thank you. Best gift ever.
The better offensive output by the Oilers won the game
It only counts for a third of a point as STL played last night and travelled with a less than 24 hour turnaround.
How likely is another Broberg call-up before the end of the season?
When all the D are healthy (lol) I would really like to see:
Nurse Barrie
Keith Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
Broberg’s arrival is so important for this team. The team is hurting for quality D and will not have the cap space to pursue external solutions this offseason.
Right now, he is being scaled back a bit minutes wise as the grind of the AHL season is showing some effects.
As Woody mentioned today, he would normally be right at the end of an SHL season with the amount of games played and they aren’t even half way through the AHL season.
Along the lines of what OP said, it sounds like Broberg is still learning lots and adjusting to the NA game on and off the ice.
I completely agree though, he’s really key to any internal improvement on D. And he needs to be ready to take over for Keith by the end of next season, ideally sooner.
Hopefully he can take his AHL play a notch higher and we see him before as an Oiler by playoff time.
The Shine is off of Cole Caufield for the time being,
Will Holloway turn out to be the superior player?
Kept hearing it was Cole propping up Dylan’s numbers looks like it could be the other way around.
They didn’t even play on the same line. There was a reason why Holloway won in a landslide for the Hobey Baker Award. It’s just unfortunate that a few voters have votes that count for much, much more.
What’s this about the Hobey Baker?
It was just the fan vote but it counts to me, damn it! Just a little tongue-in-cheek popular vote jesting. There were many deserving candidates that season. It would have been nice to have seen Dylan finish it off without his injury, yet I hope he recovers with flair.
Oh yeah, cool. I didn’t realize he won the fan vote. Not quite the real thing, but it definitely does mean something!
For sure it would have been nice to never have the injury, but I’m just glad he seems to be healthy and back on track know. Any flair will be a bonus.
Holloway spoon fed on a tee many passes on the power-play right in Caulfields kitchen.
It was really neither as they only played together on the PP.
They were never regular linemates.
I never said they played together 5 on 5 except for sporadically. When Dylan was rolling not chasing the world Juniors or injured whose line got hard matched more Caulfield’s or Dylan’s? Who’s line took on the toughs on the road Caulfield’s or Dylan’s line?
That would be Caufield’s.
You might want to double check that one I believe Holloway was the go to guy on face-offs especially on the right side.
Caufield is just like Yamo. Smaller players and finding the physically much harder to deal with.
I think your underrating Caulfield’s shot if you put him with the right line mates 5 on 5 and position him properly on the PP he will score many goals.
Woody doing his weekly with Reid Wilkins (subbing for Stauff):
1) great to see the boys persevere, play good hockey and bank points without worrying who is in or out of the lineup, etc. Proud of team and where they are at.
2) Holloway – first off, he’s a great great person – comes to rink every day excited to be there, wants to be coached, wants to get better and wants to fit in to the team system. Great character kid. Big guy that can skate very well – a very powerful skater. I saw alot of things that he did that were very impressive, he made alot of plays. There are some things he can work on too – he did miss almost a year of competitive games. To be able to add a piece like Dylan when we are missing some high end guys, it was great to inject him in to the lineup.
3) Adapting to new level including ruggedness and speed – In terms of his speed, he’s one of the best skaters on the ice – no worries about speed of game. For physicality, its a big step up from CHL and NCAA. Saw Dylan take a few healthy runs at people and finish his checks – impressed by that.
4) For Dylan, his biggest adjustment will be willing to play in games within the team games. Allowing skill to come out within structure of the team. He wasn’t able to take part in rookie or main camp. In terms of raw materials of a hockey player, he has them, he’s going to be very good. In terms of getting him up and running, I think there is another gear there. He’s in a good spot to continue to work on his game.
5) Broberg – Continues to be a driver from back end. Commands huge minutes from us. His skating, like Dylan, is great. He’s another big body frame. He’s made alot of really great plays and subtle plays on breakouts. Has found a way to get points QBing the PP. He’s a coachable kid who I see growing. Can’t forget, he’d be coming up on almost the end of an SHL season in terms of games played. For him its about managing himself through the big minutes and different situations and learning how to recover properly. For example, today was a day off by Phillip was at the rink doing some things to get him ready for the next few games – that’s part of learning to be a pro in North America.
6) James Hamblin – Yes, he is on quite a run. He is a “hockey player’s hockey player”. Huge numbers in last few years in WHL. Didn’t know much about him last year but every time I watched him practice or play in games he’s always in the right places at the right times. He’s slowly worked his way up in terms of importance. I can put him anywhere, all three forward positions, both special teams. He’s a driver of how we want to play – he’s our “do it right guy” up front.
7) Griffith – He’s had some experience, been part of few NHL orgs and a spattering of games. Puts up numbers in the AHL, on his way to a career year. Represents a skill element for us. Good on the PP. I think he’s taken a little bit of a step here in terms of his 5 on 5 production – he was challenged in mid-Dec and we are starting to see that production. He’s a hockey intellect and does have skill. He won’t cheat anyone with his effort. A good asset for the org, not only to play games in Edm if needed but also as an example for the guys down here.
8) Benson (who was praised by Keith the other day) and is this the continued transformation? Came in to the org a few years ago as a 2nd round pick and he was part of the initial wave of young players. Benny always seemed to put up numbers wherever he went including the AHL. OVer the three years I coached him, he took steps to becoming a more complete player over time – his decisions with he puck, his board work along the wall. Last year he played on that dominant line and they controlled the play of the game. I remember sitting down with him and him wanting to add the PK to his repertoire. I see him in the NHL and try and find a way to wedge his way in to the lineup and become an every day NHL player. He’s a smart player. He can make plays and I know he has an elite work ethic.
9) Travel to Tucson tomorrow – play Wed, Fri, Sat. We’ve been on the road a ton with a few home games sprinkled in. Important week for us.
8) is why I’ve never bet against Benson or criticized his progress like I have Marody’s. He had that work ethic and determination reputation from the long months of rehab he went through. I’ve been patiently watching him find a way to turn himself into a useful hockey player. Still a work in progress but I love this kid.
Good dinner read. Thank you.
Chris Kreider with his 30th…takes over the goal scoring lead.
Very impressive season for Krieder.
Of note, this is his 43rd game (Oilers have played 37 and the Leafs 38, for examples).
Of note…he doesn’t have to give them back.
Impressive indeed. I doubt his 22% shooting percentage will last though.
Draisaitl…23.1%
Cute. Always a thinly veiled dig at the team or one of their players. And it’s done relentlessly with the intent of inciting people on a blog of a team that isn’t your team. Dude, if this is how you are when anonymous, are you the same in person? Because here, you’re insufferable. And you seem to be particularly enjoying it while the team isn’t doing well. The word malevolent comes to mind. You’re so obviously wanting to spread unhappiness.
The team is never doing well.
Drai’s 5 on 5 shooting percentage is right in line with where it is most years, in fact, 2% lower than it was a couple of seasons ago.
Nonsense.
His career shooting percentage is 17.7%
Past 4 seasons, more relative than career numbers:
Draisaitl 20.7%
Kreider 17.7%
So compared with games played, it’s hard to fathom Kreider will stay the league’s top scorer when compared to Ovi, Matthews and Draisaitl.
The entire 4th line ahead of Benson is a joke, never going to win anything substantial with Tipps.
I really don’t understand the obsession with Devin Shore!!! It’s infuriating.
I kinda hear what you’re saying, but… look at where Benson is (LT’s writeup) relative to his competition. It’s not like he’s made any kind of clear case for himself to be in the lineup every night, or to move up.
I see nothing but effort out there personally, he looks for contact, agitates opponents, has excellent passing, creates space. Everything Perlini doesn’t do, except score some goals which only Perlini can do when not facing stiffer competition.
The team needs McLeod playing as many reps at center as possible, not McDavid’s wing. It’s maddening seeing Shore, Perlini and the likes get the shots at skill while Benson gets put on the 5th line. How about they give a chance? Everyone raving about Benson in the org but the head coach, the same head coach only putting Bouchard on the powerplay when Barrie is injured and Nurse is over worked.
Benson would create more scoring chances then Perlini ever has for anyone other then himself, and the team would be better off every day of the week with McLeod nailing down the 3C position.
Just give Benson a shot it’s ridiculous.
“except score some goals”
Hoo-boy 😄
I like Benson lots. He *is* putting everything into this and he seems to be carving out a role for himself. And I’m glad he wasn’t waived after a poor camp.
I just don’t see the draw in getting him to the top 6 though. You’re right Benson brings lots of stuff that Perlini doesn’t, but the flip side is true as well. One of them has 4 goals and 1 assist. The other has 0 goals and 1 assist.
Willis had a good article in the summer/fall on Benson, comparing his career to Shore’s. It’s a bit sobering, but that likely is the kind of career Benson’s looking at.
Maybe giving Benson 25 more minutes with McDavid unlocks something (he’s played 9 minutes with McDavid at this point, compared to 31 for Perlini), but I don’t think it’s particularly likely myself.
JMO, but I don’t see not giving him a proper top 6 shot (at this point) as ridiculous at all.
Benson had a bad giveaway in his own end against the flames – lucky it wasn’t a GA but I’m sure the coach noticed anyway
Brutal giveaway but he certainly lives in a space where the bad is seen far more easily than the good. I thought that beautiful assist of his would lead to more points. At least he’s taking a piece out of defenders in the o-zone. Finally someone l playing with a chip on their shoulder.
I said on the day it was first rumored that Kane was close to signing in Edmonton, Bettman will be getting calls from many owners concerned about this, and Bettman will slow play this for as long as he can.
The odds Kane signs here have already dropped from approx 75% to approx 60% imo
We wait
Are these concerns specific to the Oilers and, if so, what are they?
They are specific to the Oilers in as much as the Oilers were believed to be “close” to “taking advantage” of the situation.
I personally believe there are multiple GMs/Owners who hold a grudge against the Oilers Org for having won the lottery too many times and the McDavid lottery especially.
Trust me, none of them cried when we “unfairly” lost our draft picks for the Chiarelli hiring.
To put it another way, if Lou Lamoriello wanted Kane, he’d be an Islander right now.
Ya, I can’t get on board with that theory.
What? Why would Gary Bettman care when Kane signs?
Bettman is all about optics…always has been.
Correct.
To alleviate the perception that one team is gaining a competitive advantage in a situation where the rules are not clear or at the very least where the due process part of the equation is questionable.
I doubt Bettman even needed input from the owners…he just seems to loathe us.
But it really does seem like the league is delaying as long as possible to try and make Kane sign somewhere else.
Suspend him or let him sign already!!!
Kane at 1.5mil……YES PLEASE!
If the league hates Edmonton wouldn’t they want to grab their popcorn and watch this alleged toxic player burn the season down?
We’re doing a good enough job on our own without the toxic player…the league must be running out of popcorn.
I’d be shocked if we added Kane and then had another 13 losses in a 16 game stretch.
Dylan Holloway will be on with Gregor in a few minutes.
He’s such a likeable kid
Not to diminish your comment: I think they’re all likeable kids.
Not all kids are likeable…some are entitled snots.
Projection?
My children were/are angels…some others…not so much.
Out of the big 4 sports I find the NHL players the most humble and it’s not even close.
Yeah..I think so but there are exceptions and it appears the Oilers about to sign one.
When he flashed among other things 2 fist fulls of Benjamin Franklins it’s not really a good look in my opinion.
And here I thought we were past name calling.
And here I thought we were past trolling
yet here we are
My Valentine Day wish list;
Holloway McDavid Puljujarvi
Nuge Draisaitl Hyman
Foegele McLeod Yamamoto
Benson Sceviour Ryan/Kassian
Draisaitl taking his customary post PK, after mid period TV time our and end of period shifts with McDavid to limit the rookies ice time.
Nuge-Hyman, McLeod-Yamamoto and Foegele-Sceviour PK units to pacify Tippets angst in this area.
McLeod (faceoffs) might be a better 3d line center than Nuge, Nuge is a better top 6 forward.
Nurse Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
Keith Barrie
Bouchard on 1 PP
Barrie and Kassian moved out at the deadline. Barrie for a shut down RHD that can mentor youth/protect the geriatric. Kassian with the 1st round pick if required for a Goalie add D prospects as required to get a good one. (Swayman)
No Valentine for Evander?
Nope, not my cup of tea
My cup is Stanley.
But to be fair, Kane will only be here for a matter of months, and there will be no cup hoisting in his future.
A couple notable things (for me) from Tip today:
1) when asked about Jesse and his impact on the goals scored, Tip specifically talked about how great he was in the defensive zone and on defensive structure.
2) Gregor asked about rush chances and Tip was very clear that they need to have better gaps – it takes courage to keep a tight gap and forward support is key. He mentioned that they are top of the league as far as not giving up odd-man breaks but the rush chances seem related to the gap control. The loose gap is NOT coached, its a product of confidence (and ability in some cases) of the d-man and, in many cases, not having the forward support.
Seriously if the Oilers have NO IN HOUSE analytics guys we can name on this blog. Just how does he know they are top of the league in odd man rushes.
Please, Please OP stay with the script or I will use the red flag.
Tip confirms Hyman and Barrie are out tomorrow but its likely Nuge returns but that will be a game-time decision.
Jesse vs Espo…
Obviously tongue in cheek but the cavalry is coming, and they want that job. He has to find a way to convert more of those in close shots. I hope he’s working with the skills coaches before practice…spin off the check…find the rebound…park it upstairs.
“oh that Ziggy – will you ever win?” – Mr. Burns
The Canucks have hired Emile Castonguy as the 1st female Assistant General Manager in NHL history.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/canucks-first-ever-female-assistant-general-manager-can-t-wait-to-help-build-a-winning-organization-1.5752438?cid=sm%3Atrueanthem%3Actvvancouver%3Atwitterpost&taid=61eefe461673170001ca13c8&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
“She was named among the 25 most powerful women in hockey by Sportsnet in 2020, and spent years playing hockey while in university in New York and Quebec.
Castonguay holds a bachelor’s degree in finance as well as a law degree, and is a member of the Quebec Bar Association.
“She will play a lead role in player contracts and negotiation, managing the collective bargaining agreement, and her voice will be heard in all aspects of hockey operations,” Rutherford said.
“She will be a key member of our leadership team and we are pleased to welcome her to Vancouver.”
There is nothing more moneypuck than finding valuable contributors in places where others haven’t been looking.
The Oilers’ relative lack of diversity is an underrated aspect of Katz’s “friends and legends” myopia.
As far as I can glean from the website, the Oilers employ only 1 female in the entire organization…a content creator in the Oilers TV operation.
I believe in the past they had a female non-staff sports psychologist on contract. Don’t know if that is still the case.
Mike Martignago
@MikeMartignago
· 1h
should be noted that Castonguay got Antoine Roussel 4 years/12m from Jim Benning
The Habs GM got Nurse 9.25. Child’s play!
It’s always seemed so weird to only hire from half the available population. Einstein and Hilbert needed help from Emily Noether; surely hockey isn’t so much harder than relativity that women can’t help….
Truly an Old Boys Club.
The change is refreshing and likely gives progressive teams an advantage.
How many AHL games does Holloway get before Kenny gets an itchy trigger finger on the recall up? Leadfarmer’s already said, “15.”
All teams have gone with youth because their cheap and effective labour. I doubt Holland has received that Telegraph yet.
“Telegraph” – I appreciated that. Lol.
10
I also think 10 games.
7. He’ll be up after their weekend set with Colorado Feb 4 and 5.
Maybe there’s hope Dylan Larkin jumped straight into the fire and he’s done alright. Even though the wrist injury has cost him a year and probably some strength in his wrist I’m still Bullish on him making a instant impact on Leon’s wing.
25 games if we get Kane.
17 games if we don’t.
25 games contingent upon the next injury.
In or around this ^ time, Holloway will be “the next man up”
Well, I’m not enthused about McLeod on McDavid’s wing, I didn’t think it looked great against the flames. Hopefully he is a placeholder for Hyman….. although I don’t like Foegele in the top 6 either – this team needs Hyman and Kane – lets do it.
I think Hyman should be getting out of protocol fairly soon (if he hasn’t been overly symptomatic) if he tests out, however, if he doesn’t skate today, I would guess he’s unlikely to play and I’m also not sure if he will have been able to travel to Vancouver with the team…..
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
53m
We have a Perlini-RNH-Kassian line at practice.
Thoughts, Oilers fans?
Other lines:
McLeod-McDavid-Yamamoto
Foegele-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Shore-Ryan-Sceviour
Benson-Turris-Griffith
Barrie and Smith aren’t on the ice.
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
· 1h
McLeod-McDavid-Yamamoto
Foegele-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Perlini-RNH-Kassian
Shore-Ryan-Sceviour
Benson-Turris-Griffith
Nurse-Bouchard
Keith-Ceci
Russell-Koekkoek
Lagesson
Koskinen
Skinner
Konovalov
You would think that after calling Griffith up they would insert him in the lineup.
Huh. I figured he was just up as taxi squad insurance.
I’m surprised to hear you say this. I thought the game turned when 97/56 got 71 instead of 42. Did the numbers not turn out well?
In 10 minutes, McLeod/McDavid/Yamamoto were:
8-14 Corsi
4-12 shots
0-0 goals
25% expected goals.
I like McLeod in the bottom six – he helps the transition game and adds speed and some skill down there.
Well there ya go. I liked them by eye but tough to argue with that.
Thoughts on Perline – RNH – Kassian?
There is not enough there. They are not well suited as a shut down line. As for offence, Kassian and Perlini are both supporting line mates, they don’t drive at all. RNH has a lot of experience and value but he’ll be lucky to hold is own with that line.
They are close to unicorns, but at the moment they should build a third line as complete shut down line.
It won’t work. Who is going to get the puck out of the corner? Who is going to get it out of the D-zone along the boards.
The Oilers don’t have a shutdown line, they run power v. power just like everyone else. Can the line outscore? I have my doubts.
The Covid makes for some strange bedfellows
Who knows but the forward groups leave me meh
And poor Connor
LT on an extended shift! 🙂
Some guys will do anything to get the breaking news! 😉
“You think Ethan Bear had the higher trade value on the day of the trade?”
OR
You think you think Ethan Bear had the higher trade value on the day of the trade? 🙂
Todays wordle word is “think” 🙂
So the new Elks CEO confirms he’s taken the job through media instead of a proper team thing
I don’t see anything on the Elks site
Will they ever get it? Seems like the wrong start if he becoming a quality franchise again is the goal
$2.5m Keith would have been a blessing
$2.5m Kane would be a miracle.
Kane should come in MUCH less than that.
you would refuse to pay him $2.5m if that’s what it takes???
Yes, potentially, as that takes away the “no risk” element as far as the cap if he needs to be removed from the roster and would require immediate cap disposal to fit in.
The accounts of likely terms from the big insiders was in the $1.2M range.
Two things:
The risk reward analysis on Kane is heavily skewed in favour of reward. imo
and
The insiders, on speculation, pose a scenario at $1.2m and the blogosphere grabs hold of that number (and the associated logic) like it’s gospel. Meanwhile, in the real world, there are competing forces at play. Sure, if no one else is interested in Kane, $1.2m sounds reasonable. But I’ve said from the beginning, the decision point is whether you want Kane or not. If you do, the price is wholly subject to the market. If more than one team wants him the price goes up.
I for one would be pissed if I heard we lost Kane to another team because of an additional $1.2m. I would be doubly pissed if it was a team in our Division.
There is no where, no how, no way, we get Kane value spending the small amount of cap space we have anywhere else.
LT speaks of an “historic procurement inefficiency” that exits in this organization, and he is dead on correct.
Losing out on Kane over $1.2m would be but another inefficiency imo.
Respectfully, to say Kane at $1.2 million or I walk is folly.
If on the other hand, you say “I don’t want Kane for other reasons” well that is something that can be debated for sure.
I very much want Kane but part of that is that no risk cap implication of the deal. Its a seperate analysis at $2.5MM.
The price doesn’t go up with multiple suitors if none of them are willing to pay that higher price and I don’t presume that anyone is willing to go near $2.5MM.
I could be wrong.
So you’re walking from Kane at $2.5m ?
Possibly – that’s a totally different risk scenario and I’m not close enough to the situation to asses that risk.
Get KANE!
Pay him what he wants; Play him where he wants;
I REALLY don’t give a shit.
Just GET HIM!
something something counting chickens something
JP is on pace for 23 goals and 59 points as a 23 year old who is probably a year behind in his development curve. He would be highly sought after in any trade – not that I would trade him or trust Holland to get full value in a trade.
zero goals in the last how many games???
So according to you, McDavid is also not a top 6 Forward? He hasn’t had a goal in around 8 games as well.
Nuge between Perlini and Kass at practice…… are we maybe going to see Nuge at 3C and unicorns?
I hope this means McLeod at 4C. He’s been playing great and I like him helping the bottom six transition game as opppssed to McDavid’s wing.
That won’t be the most responsible defensive line.
.
Tip doesn’t play the fourth line enough to waste McLeod there.
Except the last couple of games, where every forward aside from Turris (9:00 in 1 game) has averaged 10:30+ TOI.
Bills – Chiefs
Greatest game of the last 20 years?
It was Marino vs Montana on steroids.
Be sure to remind Gregor that he’ll ALWAYS be known as a “fish” man, even if he’s taken a liking to some Kansas City BBQ of late.
I know that Buffalo was afraid of kicking the ball to Hill with 13 seconds left but they over thought that for sure. Would have been 6 or 7 seconds left at most.
Tough call that, in the heat of the game.
Hill scorched them twice in the 4th and both defenses were running on fumes.
13 seconds… seriously? the % win for Buffalo was 98% at that stage…
what a game
It was a crazy one for sure.
“Jesse Puljujarvi. Will he get the net-front on the PP because he’s basically the modern Phil Esposito?”
Wow, that’s over the top Dennis King style right there. haha 🙂
Phil the Thrill, maybe; Trader Phil, I don’t think so. 🙂
Besides, I though we agreed Yere Lehtonen was his spirit animal 🙂
Phil…..hmmm… so you suppose the Bison King has a brother somewhere in Finland who owns goalie pads??? Because…. you know…..
@Bob_Stauffer
·
3m
Ryan Nugent Hopkins (LBI) and Zack Kassian (Non-COVID Illness) on the ice for Oilers practice today
I’d be very happy if Puljujarvi signs for 5-8 years for $5-6M. That would be great.
The Oilers have $6.2 million in free cap space with a 13 man roster for next season.
That is going to take some serious surgery.
Very weird how Capfriendly is listing next year.
Their cap hit includes Klefbom and all the players currently on IR/LTIR (Hyman, Nuge, Smith) without including them in the 13 player ‘roster size’.
Add Klefbom’s LTIR and the others back to the roster and the team has $10M+ with 16 players signed (not including Klefbom among those).
Fill in the cheap slots and there’s $6Mish to sign Puljujarvi and Yamamoto.
Still tight but not crazy. And that doesn’t include the possibility of salary out (Barrie, Kassian) which is very likely in the off season.
How much do you think a starting goaltender is going to cost?
Tough to say.
Hopefully less than the Avs paid, and may need to pay again.
I don’t think that is going to be an issue for the Avalanche.
https://theathletic.com/3087293/2022/01/24/23-avalanche-observations-goalies-surging-nazem-kadris-agent-change-finding-a-way-to-win-close-ones-more/
I took a look at capfriendly, and its tight but not that tight.
Assuming that Benson/Perlini/ Russell re-sign league minimum 1 year contracts..
Puljujarvi signs a 4 year $5million
Yamamoto signs a 2 year $2 million
that leaves the Oilers with approximately $500,000 in cap space.
No space to upgrade, we’ll be the same time this year as we will be next year but its maneable. No idea if those money figures will get those two done, but they are reasonable imo.
This also assumes Holloway is up and Keith doesn’t retire.
If Smith moves to LTIR then that clears up 2.2 additional dollars for a goalie (along with Skinner) or he plays with Skinner.
None of these sound like great options to me by the way (except for Puljujarvi and maybe Yamamoto)….
Just give it up. The constant negativity, it is really getting annoying. Never a positive thing to say.
I’d guess he’s got a burr under his saddle cause the Oilers won.
LT, please stop letting your dog post these hot takes.
There should be a special Bison King rule on this blog. If you don’t like him just move along back to Twitter.
Expecting Kane discipline news shortly, and perhaps an Oilers signing announcement swiftly thereafter (Leavins seems to be in the know and tipped his hand hard that it’s a done deal).
If he does sign, it does some interesting things to the roster. Assuming everyone stays on their naturals sides, you get Hyman and Nuge competing for one top-6 LW spot.
First reflex might be to plug Nuge into the 3C spot, which might work…but I think I’d prefer to put him on 71’s wing. McLeod is 5 points clear of Nuge on the dot, and gets around the ice better.
So that’s a 3rd line of Nuge/McLeod/Kassian.
If they can upgrade their 3RW (I’d target Jarnkrok), that could be a pretty effective, outscoring top-9.
It’s probably also safe to assume that Kane knocks 18/13 off of PP1.
I think we know where we would like Kane to end up, however Id start him off on the third line. No PP. One step at a time.
If we sign Kane, Nuge will be our second line centre. No doubt.
Draisaitl – McDavid – PoolParty
Kane – Nuge – Hyman
If Connor/Leon start the game to try and grab an early lead I could understand. But most teams have them figured out, they collapse and give the duo the outside to work, taking away the inside. With no chaos its hard to find a seam they can exploit.
While Connor may have the best skills in the league, is there a better quarterback than Leon? Need to split them up.
Kane Leon Holloway would be the best line in Hockey. Leon would have twice the ice he has now. Leon would win the scoring title by 10 points and would drag us into the playoffs where we would be a team no one wants to face.
Don’t know if I agree with this, but I like your spunk.
Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen would have something to say about that.
Isn’t Hyman a natural RW?
He has played RW in the past but prefers LW.
Yes, Hyman is a natural RW.
At the same time, I will note that, while Holloway did play LW in the two games this weekend, I saw him driving up the right side considerably more often than the left.
When carrying the puck through the neural zone (which he does alot), he would often start near the left side boards but cross in the neutral zone and enter the zone on the right side.
A move Paul Coffey liked to employ once upon a time.
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi/Hyman
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Hyman/Puljujarvi
Foegele McLeod Yamamoto
Benson, Ryan, Sceviour.
That’s exactly how I have the roster lined up on CapFriendly.
I disagree that he has no trade value, he could net a very good return from the right GM….which might be the best idea for the team’s success.
I do agree that his contract will be troublesome if we sign him though. Much like Nurse, he’s considered a necessity on this team and we will end up paying way too much. I would like to see a 3-4 year deal somewhere in the 4mil range. Doubt we get anywhere near that as we ended up paying Nurse 1.5-2mil per year too much, so prepare for something disheartening.
He’s a good player and does have value, but he doesn’t have elite finish or a strong mind for the game. Two things that are much needed on McDrai’s wings.
This analysis looks a lot like what many were saying when Draisaitl signed his contract many moons ago.
I personally don’t think he’s in the 5-6 million dollar range as the results haven’t necessarily been there in terms of goals. But I do think there’s a player there. Perhaps a bridge deal in in the 3.5 to 4.5 mill range might be more palatable.
Where is the Bison King hate coming from? I have never seen Puljujarvi bad, he seems like hes always in a good position, hard on the forecheck. He’s big, he hits (not always), he’s fast as the wind, hes a disturber and as hes getting more confidence in his ability to scrum and battle with NHLers. He’s only 23, he has a good shot from distance, but not a lot of finish (although if he did he’d probably be a 50 goal scorer).
I am just curious as to what you have seen, analyzed, looked at or any proof besides a personal vendetta as to why Jesse Puljujarvi is not a good player, because all I have seen is a very good, young player capable of playing in the top 6.
Don’t bother, it’s likely a GPT-3 AI bot.
Nobody could be that daft.
Sounds to me like somebody had a hard time beating the boss in Street Fighter 2 as a kid.
Let’s say that I have a higher expectation of what a top 6 forward brings to the team than you.
Such as?
?
LT you often mention top prospects rarely spend a lot of time in the AHL. What is your guess for Holloway? I wonder with your talk about McDavid and Draisatl not finding much chemistry with their wingers, if it means she is up list all star break.
And it means unicorns if you also add Kane
Holloway-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Kane-Draisatl-Yamamoto
Foegele-Nuge-,Hyman
McLeod-Ryan-Kassian
That is pretty balanced, and deep. Way more size and forechecking on each line. The bottom 6 would be a handful combo of speed and size with two way centres on each one.
I could see Holloway on the fourth line with MacLeod & Kassian for starters. If they are able to sign Kane once he gets his legs under him he will solidify the top six as long as his head is on straight . Kane & Kassian or Hyman might be interesting bookends on a line with either Connor or Leon . Who knows lots of options.
Still not completely sold on Yamamoto, a bigger body would certainly change the dynamics.
Holloway’s hockey IQ, speed and size also make him an excellent PKer!
He didn’t get much PK time over the weekend (was on PP1 all weekend) but the second game was so full of penalties that he did get a look on the PK mid-way through game two.
My preference on the fourth line would be Sceviour and Benson with McLeod. Or Marody or Griffith or someone else who is interested. Ryan is an okay injury replacement and Kassian has checked out.
If he plays like he did this weekend, it won’t be long. The man had many touches in his first two games, that should increase with time. Count the times he touches the puck. Many. Impressive.
He seems to always be around the puck. Him and Connor would be fun, and while I like McLeod, i don’t think he has the natural offensive ability and smarts to keep up with McDavid.
Dare i say McDavid’s Kurri? two way play, speed and offensive instincts. Optimistic Monday’s!!!!!
Is it fair to project Holloway as being pretty similar to Hyman as an NHL player?
I think Holloway has more natural offense, we’ll see if he can finish in the NHL
Zach’s good and a great story but he took time to make it and Holloway is way ahead of him per age
From what I have seen of Holloway, he has more vision than Hyman. Zach is like a dog after a bone, which is great, but he sometimes forgets about what the rest of the pack is doing.
Holloway is only 20 but he already has man strength he can bull rush the opposition. He’s what the cool kids used to call a power forward. I love Hyman’s game but he’s not a true power forward.
I would say that their styles are very similar but Holloway is a better skater (given age) and more skilled.
He is FAR ahead of Hyman at the same age which makes sense given where he was drafted.
Holloway seems VERY strong for his age – he dominated physically in college and, shit, won most of his battles through his first two AHL games as well.
Rod Brind’Amour.
Sure hope so, that would be something.
That’s a phenomenal 3rd line. Very strong lineup offensively.
Can somebody slowly and simply explain expected goals for xGF for me, please.
IMO it’s a flawed stat that’s given far too much credit. Though if I miss something in my explanation, I’m open to better information.
Natural Stat Trick scrapes data from NHL.com and weights factors like shot type and distance to come up with an approximate expectation for a goal based on precedent.
What it doesn’t factor in, are crucial factors like if the puck was bouncing, if there was a screen, who was the goalie, and (most importantly) who took the shot.
So it doesn’t allow for Ovechkin with a clean look shooting on Skinner or Khaira shooting on Vasilevski from the same spot.
It’s big with the Twitter crowd lately so that’s why it’s the latest trend.
It is an imperfect stat, but not for those reasons. It is pretty annoying when people criticize things they don’t understand.
The shooter, the goalie, the bouncing puck, aren’t supposed to matter, you wouldn’t include those if you could. xGF is a measure of what of the situation of the shot, not the shot itself.
Now it is still imperfect because it doesn’t measure player and passing movement, etc.
But whether Ovechkin is shooting is irrelevant. There is already a measure for that.
Yeah, agreed, it’s pretty much useless. Need massive sample sizes to wash out that kind of noise. Probably bigger than a season. And “expected goal” is somewhat misleading and self-congratulatory.
PDO with HDCF is more honest and accurate, IMO. Heck the PDO people knew this swan dive was a PDO issue a couple of weeks ago.
When a team’s goalie and shooter lose their confidence, a shite PDO is exactly what we would expect.
I don’t think I throw this all down at Lady Luck’s glass slippers. But you can’t ignore it either. Bad luck comes with a negative feedback loop, as does poor confidence. Before you know it you’re in self-fulfilling prophecy land, missing wide open nets from four feet.
At the team level, Sprigings‘ expected goal model is more accurate at predicting future goals for % than simply using GF% data after 20 games.
Imperfect doesn’t equal useless (not that you said that).
While it isn’t the be all, it definitely isn’t useless IMO.
Agree those expected goal numbers for the large majority of the team are a very positive sign. And look at the bottom 6!
The team as a whole has been at 52.0%xGF at 5v5 and 52.3%xGF overall in the last 10. They should finish the season strong if they can hold those numbers going forward.
Weird to see the team actually has a 3-5-2 record (8 points) in their last 10. Not that terrible in isolation (though of course it was preceded by a losing streak, thus the truly ugly 3-11-2 in their last 16).
Anyway, I’m optimistic for better days ahead.
That seems curious. Per PuckIQ Keith has been at 33.5% vs elites in the past 10 game (he played 9). 6:02 per game.
Nurse has played 33.9% vs elites over the same span (he also played 9 of 10), and 7:34 per game.
Both virtually identical to the whole season numbers (it looks like Nurse has come down just a shade in %TOI vs elites lately).
A lot of people seem to be unable to separate the Keith trade from Keith the player. The Oilers are certainly better when Keith is in the lineup.
The ol love the player hate the contract syndrome once again. Wait til Nurses contact kicks in and see what the narrative will be in a couple of years.
Two things can be true:
He should’ve come cheaper, it would be ideal if he was on a cheaper contract, but take all that away and he is a very good player and the Oilers are better with him in the lineup.
The Keith trade has been controversial full stop.
I look at it as Keith and Sunderland for Jones the third pick (sorry people’s we aren’t going past the second round) and Neal. Keith actual dollar amount is only about 1.5 million each year. So you now can afford Neal’s buy out financially and cap wise. The other two pieces Jones and the pick were included and I’m not sure why as we should have had leverage at least not to have to pay the pick. Or pay the pick with 2million retained so that my example really is a true fit.
Point being: we needed a 2nd line left d and others dollar wise and trade wise were too expensive. This trade kinda helped a need thanks to Klefbom’s unfortunate injury.
It took Keith over 20 games to get to speed but it looks like he’s turned the corner even though he’s the 38 year old version of himself it’s still decent now. I’m more upset we did this trade and as a result had over pay Nurse 2 million a year because Seth joined the Hawks and drove up the market.
There are so many layers to this trade it’s polarizing.
As soon as Seth signed Nurse’s ask instantly went up 1.5-2 million per season. Holland Punked himself in real time.
I’ve said this a few times recently, the trade is not justifiable. While the condition was stupid (as it ties up two picks), the acquisition cost wasn’t really an issue (a 3rd and Jones who is a tweener still) but taking on the entire cap hit, given the apparent leverage and the player’s struggles the last few years should have been a non-starter.
Bad trade due to the cap hit taken on.
At the same time, I don’t think its arguable that Keith has greatly improved the 2LD position and has been a legit 2LD this season. He may not be providing $5.5M of value (cap hit wise) but, you know what, he’s not that far off.
This doesn’t mean the trade was justifiable or that the cap space could haven’t been used differently but, as far as play on the ice, he’s been legit as 2LD.
The saving grace is if Keith retires in the off season there is a recapture penalty charged to Chicago and we get almost 9 million if cap space back as a result….
Hmmmm?
Unfortunately if Keith is trending like he is now this will be another moot point as hell try and play for an extension.
Yes, I first mentioned the cap recapture within a couple of days of the trade.
I can’t say there is no chance it happens, so I will hold out hope, but I’d be VERY surprised if it happened even though he’s only owned $1.5MM for next season.
I don’t get how folks think Nurse was going to sign long term for $7 or $7.5M.
He signed a 2 year bridge for $5.6M as an RFA before his big year last season.
And in any case, the market was set before Jones. Karlsson and Doughty had signed UFA deals over $11M a couple years back. Josi also over $9M. And last year Makar and Werenski had already signed over $9M for RFA+UFA years before Nurse.
Claiming Keith or Jones had anything to do with Nurse’s contract isn’t reasonable IMO.
While I agree that Nurse would not re-sign for that amount I disagree that the market had been “set” for Nurse.
Both Karlsson and Doughty were elite defensemen when they signed those contracts and Josi still is while Makar is just getting started on a HHOF career and is likely the best of the bunch.
Perhaps an analytics department would have helped determine the actual market value for Nurse.
Neal buyout is non starter unless the manager has an owner mandated budget! I haven’t seen any evidence of that to date. A good defence lawyer might use that to get Holland of a charge of bad management!😉
Huh?
This was a super helpful breakdown, LT. Thanks!
Kemp sure has taken a step but I will add Michael Kesselring to that conversation – I’ve seen him VERY good over the last few weeks. He has a higher skill range and he’s showing it in defensive zone battles and transition plays – lots of Ethan Bear in his ability to delay and make the pass.
I hope so – this player will help on the ice big time and help balance.
Unless he’s sicker than most and not able to “test out”, he should be available. He was playing better in the couple of games post “break” when his shoulder was given more time to rest.
I read, hoping after the all-star break – that sounds, well, not encouraging.
No intel on timeline was given. Could sure use not having Russell or Koekkoek on their right side although that pairing was 2-0 and 2-1 goals against the flames.
Would be really tough not to start Mikko after last game – he earned anouther.
Been opining that Jesse >>> Hyman on PP1 net front for months – the numbers back this up big time. Jesse should be a staple. It was heartening that Tip brought him up specifically in the post-game.
Of course – no brainder.
The likes of Nuge and Hyman in and out of the lineup change things – Kane as well (hoping). Perlini needs to stay in, and help, the bottom six.
So many ways to look at this. Deadline is still a while away and the GM likes to asses his roster and place in the standings at the time.
Assets out for a goalie is a seperate conversation in my opinion.
Curious to those who watch the games in BAK, how is Rodrigue playing this season (beyond the numbers)?
Rodrigue has really really started to settle in and provide solid tending.
So many weak goals early in the season and he would take himself out of position. Those issues have settled down.
I am FAR from a goalie expert but he’s been solid recently.
That’s a solid trend line, thanks OP.