The Edmonton Oilers won Saturday night and have a chance to build on it. This week is going to have some loud noises (as we discussed yesterday) and the first item of business is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins activated (if things go well today) and playing No. 3 centre. That signals the end of a very successful line, the Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto trio. How successful? One of the very best over the last 15 years.
THE ATHLETIC!
- NEW Lowetide: Leon Draisaitl’s history of long Decembers and what came after
- Lowetide: Three first-shot scorers in Oilers system in a race to make NHL
- DNB: Dylan Holloway resumes road to Oilers after frustrating injury interruption
- Jonathan Willis: Loss underlines how over-reliant Oilers are on offence from the defence
- Lowetide: Making the waiver call on young Oilers players as the deadline approaches
- New DNB: Oilers’ flaws can’t be ignored as losing skid goes from bad to worse
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- DNB: Connor McDavid supports Oilers’ pursuit of Evander Kane.
- DNB: Ken Holland speaks
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: NYI, NYR, TOR (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-2-1)
- At home to: OTT, FLA, CGY (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MTL, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 4-5-1, 9 points in 10 games
- Actual January results: 1-4-1, 3 points in 6 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 19-16-2, 40 points in 37 games
A win tonight and the month has a little bit of structure, going from complete disaster to ‘the roof caved in but I know a guy.’ Important game tonight.
MUST SUCCESSFUL LINES 2007-08 THROUGH TODAY
I was writing a couple of weeks ago about Puljujarvi as a great choice for McDavid’s line and the offense is clearly top drawer when 97-29-13 are flying. Some nice throwback lines on a list that heavily features the two impact players.
Here are the lines sorted by goal differential. The Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto trio held up pretty well but the scoring totals from both wingers has been in the ditch for some time. All of these lines were successful, astounding to see how dynamic 2015-18 McDavid was compared to 2011-14 Nuge. We know it, but the McDavid success even early is incredible.
NUGE OUT AMONG THE STARS
Since 2015-16, Nugent-Hopkins has played a lot with McDavid and Draisaitl. What do the numbers look like? This is via Natural Stat Trick and I didn’t take out the noise, so some of these goals include all three players we’re discussing. These are five-on-five numbers
- Nuge with McDavid: 61-51, 54.5 percent goal share
- McDavid w/o Nuge: 365-299, 55 percent goal share
- Nuge with Draisaitl: 75-53 58.6 percent goal share
- Draisaitl w/o Nuge: 332-327, 50.4 percent goal share
Nuge didn’t impact the McDavid five-on-five goal share, No. 97 can drive 55 all by his lonesome. He did/does have some impact on the Draisaitl line, but was it confined to that fabulous 2019-20 run? In the last two seasons (2021-22 and this year), the goal share is 52.5 percent (21-19). Before 2019-20, the goal share was also 21-19, also 52. 5 percent. The 33-15 (68.8 percent) outlier of 2019-20 had an enormous impact on the overall numbers.
What does it say about Nuge moving to No. 3 center? Based on yesterday’s lines, Zack Kassian and Brendan Perlini will be his linemates. Nuge without Draisaitl since 2019-20 is 40-50, 44.4 percent, and I’m not sure the third unit will be an outscoring trio with Nuge as the feature player. For his career, he is 418-428 at five-on-five, that’s 49.4 percent.
Away from McDavid? 48.6 percent. Away from Draisaitl? 47.8 percent. I’m not a math expert, but Nuge is coming up on 29 and this is a big ask in my opinion.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we get started at 10 on TSN1260. Jeff Peterson from Rinkwide podcast will pop in at 10:20 to tee up Oilers-Canucks from the Vancouver side, Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Oilers Nation will talk Oilers at 10:40. Crossfire (pew-pew!!!) at 11, and Matt Iwanyk will pop in later in the hour. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: Grading the first 3 years of Ken Holland’s Oilers trades.
https://theathletic.com/3089888/2022/01/26/lowetide-grading-the-first-3-years-of-ken-hollands-oilers-trades/
Just got in from the cabin. Spend five hours plowing the road!!! Gimme some global warming, please. Jk. Anyways, heard(seen) the game on sxm and it was the van guys calling the game. Apparently Mikko is luck to be in any league and McD is an entitled brat. lol The dude in net is also the next coming of McLean. Geez. But it sounded like the guys were flying and I hear Drai and Puljujarvi called a lot. Yamo was railed for missing a lot(sounded about right). Never heard goals called so sadly as when the Oil scored! lol Great work to get back in it and overtime magic by McD. Our luck is turning!
Well, that was quite the ending.
I didn’t see it mentioned below but Slater Koekkoek played very well tonight. Had a shift in the third that might have been his best defensively as an Oiler.
I said when Foggy was 97’s winger that the line would look better if Nuge was on it. I don’t think it really matter who is at starboard as long as they can shoot and retrieve. but if it isn’t 29 on the left it, should be 93. His passing gives sustain to 97’s sorties. He’s an outlet the play doesn’t die with.
Yams needs to play with someone that creates chaos between the face-off dots, scrambly play. He’s so good on loose pucks in phone booths (Ask your parents. They existed I swear to Gord). Too bad he and Foegele play the same position. Pujo too. Hyman then should be stapled to 56.
Nurse… what can I say. Looked like a 1D tonight. not just creating the odd man in overtime and making the play, but there was a steal late in the game at the doorstep, a key defensive play that he just made look so easy. Danger instantly defused.
I think Connor & Leon want Boosh to shoot more on the powerplay… but Boosh knows he has the lower percentage opportunity. There were a couple moments of “shoot”, “no, you shoot” tonight. They were better later: had more flow and pace to the passing through the point man. They’ll get it worked out, I’m sure.
Good game. I feel like given a little confidence–ie a little finish–they’d steamroll these guys.
Nurse has been rounding into form the last few games, good to see. Keith again way more active and playing some really good hockey. Ceci needs a goal I think, a shot of confidence would do him wonders. Bouch is still figuring out the pro game, I’m not down on him but there’s some wobble.. I’ve got this theory that he’s dealing ever so slightly with the physical demands of NHL hockey, just a feeling.
Hopefully Connor has that godawful monkey off his back. Didn’t see him good on the two SH breakaways but the flashes are there now. He’s pushing.
I’d like to note for HH that Quinn Hughes was “in photo” for two of the three tonight. Maybe having diminutive forwards moonlighting as defensemen isn’t the he greatest idea?
Foreshadows of Cale Makar come playoff time when the going gets tough…
If McLeod doesn’t score a fluky goal we more than likely lose to half a Canucks team. Once we scored the fluke goal the compete level went up and Nurse actually laid out a few people. This team is missing something and I’m pinning it on the Coach. Why would you not have your best face off man take the crucial draw in OT. You win the draw back track and then have McDavid jump over the boards. I’ve seen lots of OT goals scored without the other team touching the puck. Shit like this bothers me about Tippett he’s so predictable. You can tell the players like Tippett but his system is just not working you can’t continue to give up the first goal.
Couldn’t bet my happiness on a 2-0 game and it bites me in the bum again! The McPrecious saves the day!
Great game, phenomenal OT and good on Mikko for battling again after down 2-0.
Nit picking, but JP should be credited with the 2nd assist on Drai’s goal. I saw it in the 1st viewing and super-slow no confirmed that I wasn’t missing anything. Are NHL scorers that lazy?
I also think Nuge should have the 2nd assist on 97’s goal, but didn’t get a proper view, but my impression was that RNH rode Miller in the boards and as he did, he swatted the puck one handed down to Nurse along the boards.
I’ve not done this in a while, but I’ll be curious to see if anything changes. If you are interested go to NHL.com and go to the scores and watch goal highlights. You can easily move the video with you finger and watch it in whatever speed you like. I didn’t know this until tonight.
So my point here is, if CMD wins the Art Ross by 1 point and this isn’t corrected, you will know the truth. I honestly don’t really care, but it is something I will be aware of and thought I should share…
Holland is having the scorers take away assists from JP as part of his salary cap management plan.
I know I’ve never trusted the away shot clock there.
My eyes saw the JP assist as well.
Entertaining game. McLeod goal aside, big time kudos to Spencer Martin. Maybe he should be our new target goaltender. Acquisition cost shouldnt be that high.
This was only his 9th game of the season.
He looked so good, so steady and appeared to be an above average puck handler.
I have observed that at 26 years old goalies do tend to reveal themselves, but sadly not many get that chance. So I believe you can find 27 year undervalued and low cost UFA goalie solutions. GMs aren’t often that bold, though.
Tim Thomas was a very late bloomer if I recall correctly.
He’s really never been good before the 9 AHL/NHL games this season though.
26 years old and his AHL SV% has been between .893 and .907 for the previous 5 seasons.
He was excellent, but tough to believe it lasts.
Unknown goalies can have early success – it really helps that the other team doesn’t have a “book on them”, from accounts.
They have reports from the AHL, and previous leagues
Just went through the thread and since the Oilers scored, not a sound from harrys hairball. Wonder why? Maybe fell asleep under the bridge?
I don’t think he has ever been around to face the game day music.
Where’s HH?
Nice to see Nurse with that backhand assist on the game winner. Hughes looked like a little kid trying to strip him of the puck.
Huge, huge win tonight. They worked their butts off and completely dominated the Canucks. A loss would have been soul crushing. A few observations:
It seemed like they made a thousand shot attempts, and I still think they don’t shoot enough. Way too often they defer the shot and make the extra pass.
They miss the net way too often. It’s like they’re trying to make the perfect shot, instead of simply putting it on net. See Ryan McLeod for reference.
Mikko played really well tonight, but the first goal was a stinker. If he plays the angles properly, the puck bounces off him.
The McDavid penalty was a joke. Highmore could have been called for interference, but even that would have been a weak call. The unsportsmanlike penalty to Highmore evened things out, but was awful.
They still seem to pass up quality shooting locations too frequently looking for a nicer play. However it usually ends up at the point for a long, low percentage shot.
Way better tonight though, but they still struggle on second chance offence. All those shots and not a single rebound goal again tonight! Who was the last oiler to score on a rebound? Hyman?
Make your lives easier Oilers, score your couple beauties, a couple rebounds and you won’t have to chase every damn game!
Unicorns tonight? Goals from 1C, 2C, 3C.
Tip outcoached Boudreau in OT!
You think? With the team Boudreau vs the team Tippet had, it shouldn’t even have gone to OT. But YMMV.
The Canucks goalie kept them in the game. The HDSC’s were lopsided in favor of the Oilers. Yamamoto likely had more HDSC’s than the entire Canucks team.
This is actually almost true.
Leon and Kailer both had 5 HDSC. The Canucks (all strengths) also had 5.
Tip adjusting to save his job. Been a few tweaks lately.
HD Corsi was 13-3 at 5 on 5 (and 22-5 overall)
I know, I know – some minor league tender and 3 or so important Canucks out and the Oilers need OT – doesn’t sound great.
At the same time, that Oilers dominated that game for probably 50 minutes of it.
Their AHL tender was the reason the Canucks were not only leading, but in it.
At some point, the finishing is going to come and the Oilers are going to go on an offensive heater.
Really happy to see McDavid get the winner in OT. Seems like he really needed it.
Why is it that we seem to make every goalie we play against look like a leading candidate for the Vezina? Do goalies get super pumped to play against Edmonton/Connor? It just seems inexplicable.
But, entertaining game to watch. As usual, very frustrating start… falling behind by 2 goals, felt like “here-we-go-again”. Great recovery though, full points to get it tied up. Then just drive to the net and let Connor finish. Oh how we abhor that Bettman point, thank Gord!
Nashville comes to town on Thursday. Keep the streak alive… GO OILERS!!!
I do think that unknown goalies have a bit of an advantage as the opposition (and the opposition goalie) don’t have a book on them….
The sports psychologist in me wonders if falling down by 2 and winning both of the last 2 anyway is better than scoring first. Remember the jam required? Yeah it feels like that. Now the fan in me suggests we can move on and start scoring the first goal again.
Dammit did they deserve that one
Why does it have to be so hard for them to score!
Canucks was awful in OT – just giving up possession – rimming pucks to noone.
Weird.
That Tyler Myers dump in during 3 on 3 was insanity.
Because they were tired of chasing most of the game
We’re going streaking!
Excellent game.
That OT effort looked like a team rather than two guys trying to do too much. Way better.
Agreed, I thought a lot of guys were engaged tonight overall, not just in the OT. An effort like that wins a lot of hockey games even if they had to come from behind to do it.
Even Jesse got a turn!
Two I think…… Drai had the opportunity to feed him with speed twice as well but didn’t….
Extend Holland and Koskinen NOW!
Ha!
Thanks to Mikko for raising his trade value for the team!
That was really funny
Wooooooooo Nuge was so missed.
Excellent first game back.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAOOAOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Best OT period I have watched in a long time.
Canucks really didn’t want to possess the puck – so strange.
But, these are the things Oil have to take advantage of.
That was quite nice in the end (the goal).
And that’s another really big win!!
From all BC Oiler fans: thank you!
(yes I include HH)
Wooooooo!!!
oh baby
What a play by Nurse for the winning assist.
Draisaitl robbed by Martins. Jesse was tripped.
Spencer Martin trying to win the Vezina with 2 games played.
What a chance for Keith.
RNH’s pinpoint accuracy on display!
How did Nurse miss from there?
Tip monitors Lowetide obviously
Canucks playing for OT the last 5 minutes.
A new OT strategy?!
Phew. Dug at least a point out of that mess.
If Tip uses the “play McD and Drai for five minutes” strategy in OT I am going to lose my freaking mind.
Spencer Martin gives me reason to believe when Stalock makes his way back he’s going to win 18 straight starts until the coaching staff has over worked him.
He’s been really good – reminds me of Binnington: positionally perfect and great rebound control.
Holy shit Yamamoto is snakebit. Another grade A chance.
He is, but he’s also 3-5-8 in his last 10 games.
3rd on the team in goals and points (last 10).
This is ragged hockey but the effort is there.
#babysteps
Could not have said it better.
Who coaches the PK to defend while laying on the ice???
The same staff that relies on creating something out of nothing for offense.
Kailer hasn’t buried it but he’s been all around the puck and scoring chances.
Someone said “tough night” earlier but, for me, a good night.
Agreed. By my eye, he is playing with confidence. Going to the net hard.
Ya. I said tough night but that meant having a tough time to get a goal!
The Drai cycle line cycles for 10 seconds then turns over puck on a blocked outside shot by Drai, seems that has happened a few too many times for the cycle line
Knew that was coming…. kills this shit!
2 min for being a large mammal.
Someone tell Admiral Ackbar that second Vancouver goal was a trap.
Tee hee!
Haven’t seen that go in from there in 2 months
I wish we can play like this all game. We might actually be in 1st place
That was a great reward for a lot of effort on the power play. Well done boys! Hopefully we can keep up some momentum