The tough part of the Oilers road trip is over, and the games this week will be vital to the March toward a playoff spot. The team is in a virtual tie with the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars now, a string of losses (hello Anaheim Ducks) could sink a team like a stone. This is the good stuff, and if should always be enjoyed. Butterflies in your stomach? Nerves frayed? Afraid to watch?
That’s when the good times start and when the heartaches begin. It’s the playoff race, and this year is shaping up as a real live wire.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: February tests Oilers’ mettle but playoffs are still in sight
- Lowetide: Positive early returns on Oilers’ 2021 draft class, but there are miles to go
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ quiet man, is making loud noises on a new line
- Jonathan Willis: Salary cap limits Oilers’ options, no excuse not to look for a goalie today
- DNB: Mike Smith keeps showing he’s not the Oilers’ answer in net.
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s new role with Oilers and the promising early results
- Jonathan Willis: With easy upgrades done, hard work remains for Oilers as trade deadline nears
- DNB: Oilers setting their sights on challenging trip ahead
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Raphael Lavoie has turned the corner as an NHL prospect
- Lowetide: The furious race to land Oilers’ open job on left defence
- DNB: Derek Ryan flourishing under new Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Oilers picking Philip Broberg over Trevor Zegras is still debated.
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s remains a transcendent talent. Here’s why.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: WAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, CHI, NYI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-4-2, 14 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 7-5-0, 14 points in 12 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 29-21-3, 61 points in 53 games
The Oilers are on target to finish 45-33-4, and 94 points. That’s likely a little shy of a playoff spot, but the new coaching staff reeled off a 6-3-0 (12 points) run and if and if they can do that three more times the team will land at 97 points with two games remaining. Miles to go.
GOALTENDER
Mike Smith stopped 27 of 29 and earned another game, a .931 save percentage is impressive win or lose. I think he stumbled a little on the second goal, and the third (disallowed) goal was worrisome. However, there’s no way the general manager is going to flush his starter after he posted that game.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse drew a penalty and played an enormous amount of the game (he always seemed to be on the ice). Five giveaways stand out and he was overly aggressive at times, but he was effective against the Aho line and battled Svechnikov early and often. That matchup totaled 11 minutes, Oilers ahead in shots 6-5. Cody Ceci blocked a couple of shots, played a responsible game and pursued pucks tirelessly. He’s a good NHL blue. He also went 1-0 goals at five-on-five. Nurse and Ceci were on the ice for the Aho goal, but good lord what a pass by Teravainen. I’d be more upset with the cross-seam pass being allowed by the forwards (Devin Shore and Zach Hyman) than anything the defenders were doing. The big part of that play was Smith out of position, he bit on the shot from left wing and was slow to cover the middle shot from Aho.
Markus Niemelainen and Evan Bouchard were on the ice for the Teravainen goal, lots of criticism for Bouchard but I think you have to give Carolina its due there. Brilliant passes from Chatfield to Svechnikov and then the Teravainen shot were masterful. Three forwards high, Bouchard’s choices were allowing Svechnikov a clear lane to the net or trying to cover in hopes Niemelainen or McLeod would grab Teravainen. I don’t think there’s a good answer there, Hurricanes execution made it impossible. Niemelainen had six hits, one takeaway and an education from the Aho line. Bouchard had 11 shot attempts (four found the mark) and to my eye played well against a tough opponent.
William Lagesson won the shot battle five-on-five and was on the ice for the Derek Ryan goal, so his numbers look smart from the Hurricanes game. He played just 10:21 and with Duncan Keith joining the team may soon take on the 7D role this week. Tyson Barrie took a couple of penalties and was chasing (they were all chasing) at times, but he survived. Philip Broberg played very little but won the shot share 3-1.
FORWARDS
Zach Hyman played a ton and was productive, four shots and two high-danger chances. He’s constantly in motion and trying to find dangerous areas to shoot. I’ll never get tired of watching him MacGyver the offensive zone. Connor McDavid had a tough game, losing some chiclets and the first period due to a dangerous high stick from Brady Skjei. It also sewered the four-minute power play that came as a result. Once back in the game, he delivered five shots and looked dangerous. Alas, the disallowed goal, where he rocked down to electric avenue and scored a beauty was the highlight of the game. Warren Foegele had one HDSC, one offside and one sequence against Ethan Bear that didn’t go anywhere. He’ll want a better performance next time in Raleigh.
Evander Kane had shockingly little impact on the game, beyond three giveaways and one shot. His five-on-five work has lacked detail and his shots in that discipline have been diving (18 shots in his first five games and just four in the most recent five games). He might be hurt, but failing that, Edmonton needs him to be more impactful. Leon Draisaitl played too many minutes, gave away the puck too much and lost 15 of 19 in the dot. He too has just five shots in five games and I think he needs to play less (Nuge injury clearly an issue). Colton Sceviour was around a promising play a couple of times but nothing materialized.
Ryan McLeod played in all three game states, skated miles and took a penalty. He had one reasonable chance and drew a penalty, if he could score more often I think McLeod could replace Kailer Yamamoto in the top-six forwards. Derek Ryan scored the only goal of the game, he’s on some kind of a southern heater with four goals in two games and now eight on the year. What an overnight success! Glad for him, it looked dire not long ago. Tyler Benson created a couple of rebounds and if he improves his shot we could see 10-12 goal seasons in the future (if he makes it). Brendan Perlini had one look and got some power-play time, confirming Jay Woodcroft leaves no man behind.
I’m feeling good about this team’s playoff chances, in spite of the current position in the standings. We’ll go over the predicted record for March tomorrow in the game-day thread, but my article today for The Athletic details why I believe this team is heading for the postseason.
The Senators have Filip Gustavsson back playing in the NHL.
That’s 3 goalies. Anton Forsberg has a 900k cap. .917 sv on 24 games.
I wonder if Kenny has called Dorion.
I have time for this move. We know Kenny likes him.
Canucks curb-stomped by a non-playoff team and the Kings completely embarrassed on home ice, both giving up a touchdown and silencing the resident troll.
Funny how that worked out.
I just read the Canucks are trying to move Myers. Then I noticed he has a six million cap for two more years. Good luck with that.
Benson gets nothing done. The play dies around him most of the time. He looks he’s skating in quicksand.
Love the progression McLeod has made in his game. Excited to see where his career forecasts towards. The hesitancy we saw early in his game is slowing shedding and the willingness to regain the puck coupled with his speed makes for a great player – good shot too.
Louie must have talked to his son about having that shooting mentality. Jake has the hattrick in L.A. as Boston leads midway through the game 3-0. I don’t cheer for the Bruins often (sorry L.T.) but hope they keep it up for another 30 tonight.
Had to add the 7th plus for the 7-0 licking. Some good work there by the Bruins.
Looks like Louie is up on the 1st line from the scoresheet. Pump and dump for the deadline?
Perlini on waivers seems odd….Turris would be the logical decision there no?
It does say that the newest coach sees what I see this year…Benson is coming on. He is progressing…just slower than we’d like. He is assertive, he hits, he has a head for the game, and he impacts the play when he’s on the ice. Give him more icetime and it will help this team in the long run. He’s still making mistakes, but those start to go away when he gets more confidence and the game slows down for him.
I had my doubts in the first couple looks, but I am now a Benson believer! Just like McLeod…we may have another player ready to take a permanent spot on the roster.
Turris is on IR so he can’t be waived until activated.
It’s true. What’s weird is that he’s been waived multiple times and I don’t think has ever left Edmonton.
Reading between the lines it seems likely he wants to stick around his family, and has no interest in playing in the NHL. And the team seems willing to accommodate.
Seems a solid thing for the team to do, so long as it doesn’t hurt them.
That all leads me to a prediction: that Turris finds his way onto the LTIR and becomes a ‘contributor’ to the team down the stretch, probably more than he ever did on the ice.
More interesting is… it’s reported that his mother discovered the news on Twitter, and that was how he found out he was waived. Oilers management either don’t care or are just ignorant. Not a good look for a struggling (?!) team.
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/nhl-oilers-brendan-perlini-found-out-from-his-mom-that-he-got-waived-222004167.html
I was talking about Turris, not Perlini.
I apologize for replying to your post. It wont happen again.
I know hits in a game means you don’t have the puck. Our forward seem to have the puck all the time.
stack rank -forwards
Kassian 35 games – 95 hits
Foegele 53 games – 80 hits
Yamamoto 52 games – 66 hits
Hyman 47 games – 54 hits
McDavid 52 games – 50 hits
Shore 32 games – 46 hits
Jesse 46 games – 46 hits
Kane 14 games – 43 hits
Sceviour 32 games – 40 hits
Benson 26 games – 40 hits
Draisaitl 53 games – 36 hits
RNH 45 games -32 hits
Perlini 23 games – 29 hits
Ryan 49 games – 21 hits
McLeod 42 games – 14 hits
Turris 22 games – 13 hits
Kassian, Foegele, Kane and Benson adding some muscle
Mr. McLeod has some work to do
Hits means you don’t have the puck makes as much sense as saying Interception or Forced Turn Over means you don’t have the puck (originally).
It always surprises me to see how few hits Draisaitl racks up. Per sixty, it’s among the fewest in the league. Yet he doesn’t shy away from physicality to the eye.
Draisaitl’s 5v5 hits/60 rate of 1.84 trails McLeod’s 1.88. Not sure why you’re calling out the youngster.
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
Sources tell @DailyFaceoff the Chicago #Blackhawks will name Kyle Davidson the team’s 10th General Manager on Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1498437077838536708?s=20&t=6DDWZr4PoumuyV0GdxH4XQ
I was really hoping for Chiarelli.
Bouchard at present is eligible for one of his performance bonuses, on the brink of another and has a third in reach.
Each bonus is $212,500 to a max of $850k.
Anything he triggers is going to have to be pushed onto next year’s cap hit though.
Here are the conditions:
Presently he is a titch over .49 pts per game and he is one goal away from his tenth. Needs 7 assists to trigger the assist bonus.
Of course, he needs to sustain that ppg rate for the condition to fully vest.
I should point out too that he is presently second in aggregate TOI for Dmen. If the season were to end today he would qualify for two bonuses. Apologies for missing that one.
Hopefully Brendan gets picked up, and gets an opportunity elsewhere. I don’t see how Benson or Shore are more valuable to this organization.
I will admit I am cheering for Benson (local guys who has fully paid his dues in our system). I am enjoy the growth of Mr. Benson as an NHL player. I thought he was good with Kane and Driasaitl on Sunday
Definitely on team Benson.
@JasonGregor
Oilers injury updates
Keith good chance will play tomorrow v. PHI.
Yamamoto is a possibility this week. Unlikely he plays tomorrow.
RNH out this week, maybe two weeks. He has shoulder injury. Exact timeline to return unknown.
10:44 AM Feb 28,2022
=======================
I haven’t seen this posted here today so I thought I’d add this to the conversation
I squirm a bit whenever I see “shoulder injury, exact timeline unknown”.
Stauffer has been adamant on his show that Keith would be back for Chicago at the latest.
My guess is that they stick with 7-11 for the first couple of games at least to get him up-to-speed.
Uggg, shoulder injury and Nuge
We should cut Keith some slack in our evaluations of him for a couple weeks. Time after time we see players not at their best when returning from concussions.
I am hearing TML are looking for a starting goalie – was letting Andersen walk for free a decision the excellent TML analytic team endorsed?
Maybe analytics does not serve the goalie position as well as it serves the forwards and D. As we have seen except the elite goalies, the group as a whole seem to yo-yo in their performances year to year.
That’s a fair question, although I think money was involved. SO, maybe the question should be “did the crack analytics people tell upper management that Campbell could fill the role and losing Andersen was a risk worth taking” but overall I think you have a sound point here.
Andersen signed in Carolina for 2 x $4.5M. Toronto replaced him with Mrazek at 3 x $3.8M. I’d say it’s unlikely money was the main issue.
I would propose that the goal tender position more than any other is dependant on the defence in front of him and the coaches defensive systems and how it’s executed. Was our goal tending as we seem to think that bad and where do we place the blame. The goal tending has been much better under the new coaching regime that appears to have a much greater emphasis on team defence! As the last person on a goal against he is the easy one to lay the blame on. There are normally at least one egregious before the goal is scored! I am not sure that some of the trade proposals gets better goalie but a goal tender coming into a better situation!😉
If the Leafs are that dumb you trade for Jack Campbell immediately.
I don’t know that Andersen is all that. Bet the Canes fans were cursing his five hole all last night.
It takes two to tango. I think Andersen was tired of Toronto.
The one mistake made by the Oilers during the offseason that has not been discussed as much as it might be that seems to be impacting the Oilers overall play this season, was the assumption that Koekkoek was a viable option on the left side of the 3rd pair. Had they not signed Koekkoek who else reasonably cheap might they have signed to play left D? Granted, Holland didn’t have a lot of cash left to spend for that spot, and how far do you go to insure against injuries to Nurse, Keith and Russell (who could be there if Lagesson or Koekkoek weren’t cutting it). Plus they maybe thought Lagesson and potentially Samorukov could provide some added cover as well, but Lagesson is having a few sophomore issues and back to back injuries to Samorukov stepped back his development.
But to end up with Lagesson, Niemailainen and Broberg all covering behind Nurse on the left side while Koekkoek is on the farm to me signals that was a fairly meaningful miss. And I don’t recall from watching him play most of last season that Koekkoek had developed into anything more than barely replacement level. They only signed him to a $950,000 contract, but even what little they saw in him, he has not achieved. I am hoping Keith is back soon and gets up to speed again quickly.
Kenny sure loves his 2 year deals. We get to see KoekKoek play next year. He will probably be injured most of the year like Turris this year.
2 years, AAV $925,000.
Salary figures: $750k this year (NHL minimum), then a cool $350k raise to $1,100,000 in Year 2. Good thing they locked him up, eh.
I mean it’s not the second year on the Smith extension, but it seemed unnecessary at the time & looks worse in retrospect.
Certainly unnecessary, but like Shore his salary is really only relevant to Darryl Katz since it can be fully buried, no?
If I’m Daryl Katz I am not happy at all with contracts like this
Maybe.
They’re paying Seth Griffith $475k (on a 2 year deal) to play in Bakersfield. Essentially zero expectation of playing NHL games.
I’m not sure why Koekkoek is much different, except that he’s a bit higher in the order.
I don’t see it as a big mistake at all. Koekkoek was signed to be the 7th dmen on a fully buryable contract. He didn’t cost an asset or cap space.
Looks like Lagesson and Neimaleinin have passed him on the depth chart, which is probably a good sign regarding our farm system.
Koekkoek is a non issue. I would lump him in with guys like Russell, Shore, Perlini, Ryan, etc. These are all players who didn’t cost any assets to acquire and whose contracts can be pretty much buried. You should look further up the lineup for bad signings or trades.
Anyone who cost significant assets or cap space should come under your scrutiny.
My problem with Kooks is he isn’t a good fit more than anything
When you have three smaller shorter non physical D in Keith Barrie and Russell, a non physical tall skinny young offensive D in Bouch, you need some beefy height for balance
It leaves all of that to Nurse and Ceci. Niems has stepped up and that has won him favour, but he’s green and isn’t a great compliment to Bouch or Barrie who end up third pair depending
Kooks is a game, but he’s also a tall skinny not really physical type and he gets hurt a lot. I think an older more experienced version of Niems was the answer, especially in that Niems was a surprise, and given they chose Barrie over a player like that at RD
Sorry Koeks
I realize this is an Oilers blog, but was interested in others thoughts on the 3 opponents we saw on this trip. It included 3 of the top 4 teams in the NHL and I was really impressed with how the Oil played against them (unfortunately we are getting close to being past moral victories).
That being said, I thought Florida (the only team we beat) looked the best of the 3 of them. I may have to go put down some money on the Cats winning the Cup…
They are indeed a juggernaut.
Here are the latest odds on winning the cup. (top 10)
Colorado Avalanche +475
Florida Panthers +600
Tampa Bay Lightning +700
Toronto Maple Leafs +800
Carolina Hurricanes +800
Vegas Golden Knights +800
Pittsburgh Penguins +1200
New York Rangers +1600
Calgary Flames +1600
Minnesota Wild +1700
He was looking for input from an Oiler fan which was indicated by his gentlemanly comment understanding this was an Oiler blog! This indicates 1. That he respectful and 2. He had little interest in what a Troll would say. It also indicated that he is far more intuitive and intelligent than you! How’s that hip doing? Wish you all that you so richly deserve!
I would not trust Bob in the playoffs. But otherwise I’d pick them.
First the Oilers were in those games and with a goalie in one and some finish in the others easily could have won the three
Based on possession, scoring chances , rushes and entries etc
Florida is pretty loose defensively and the Bolts and Canes are tighter and it will matter when it matters most. And the Panthers have the most wobbly goaltending
Tampa took a hit in who they had to let go and it shows. I got downvoted pre game for saying they aren’t who they were, the cap catches all, and they aren’t as good, but they are still a formidable team with Vas and Hedman (when healthy) and that coach
The Canes are weird. They are built like a stats team, they may be too vanilla still even though they are trying to be ruffians now. Connor will have something for them later I guarantee
Svechnikov is a beauty, I hoped the Oilers might get him. They might be where Tampa was before the Cups and have to get some bigger meaner players to succeed in the playoffs
As Mr Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face, and that’s exactly what many teams do in the playoffs because it is the easiest tactic
I like Perlini. I feel there are at least 2 others I would put on waivers prior to Brendan.
Perlini for his skill set has been a disappointment after his preseason debut! He leaves me wanting so much more! I believe he has the skills but he needs the opportunity when offered!
He doesn’t want to do what is being asked over several teams
Benson does, I think that’s the difference. Loads of players have the flash or skill or one big thing, and can’t stick because of the rest of what they won’t or can’t do
Perlini has the tools for a big paycheque and a top 6 role, if he wants it
I agree with this.
I thought he proved that he deserved an opportunity to showcase his talents in the top 6 out of camp. I am pretty sure I was the most vocal in the community about this. I had even more hope for his place on the team when he started taking the body in about week 3 or 4. I think he saw what Benson was doing and realized he needed to do it too in order to stick around.
He still is way too passive and is a totally periphery player. He has more tools than most in the league, but is simply not an NHL player; he could be a productive player in the KHL, maybe.
He won’t stick there too long if he does get himself involved in the play.
Can you imagine Yamo at that size, shot, speed and skill? He would be a Chris Kreider or better….
I agree
The NHL isn’t about the beauty of the game
It’s ugly. And rough. Mucking and battling
Only the very best make it pretty regularly
Sorry Mr Pelini
If I was looking for a bottom 6 player to “unlock” I would have chosen Perlini. I think he has more to give and you see flashes every time he’s on the ice.
Not Benson, Shore, Sceviour.
I don’t mind the Malone call up as the coach must see a niche he can fill. Have to trust him on that.
I should note Im not down on the forwards I mentioned here. I just think they have given what they have to give, full effort, and what they bring is mostly a known commodity.
Perlini showed nothing in his first stint, with 0 points and just 6 shots in 13 GP before clearing waivers in early December.
But since he came back on Dec 16, he’s played 10 of Edmonton’s 26 games, including 90 minutes at 5v5.
Boxcars: 10 GP, 4-1-5, +2, all scoring at 5v5
2.64 5v5 G/60, 1st on Oilers (min 60 minutes)
3.31 5v5 P/60, 1st on Oilers
11.24 5v5 shots/60, 1st on Oilers
3.97 GF on/60, 2nd on Oilers (D. Ryan #1 at 4.19)
2.64 GA on/60, 8th of 15 so mid pack
I wonder if some team will take a chance on him.
True statement except he has no concept of defensive responsibility. It makes me question his hockey IQ or commitment. I will cheer for him and hope he gets it figured out because he would be a great add!
Perlini is a shot. On his 3rd team. Woody’s system requires a lot of hard work and skating. When you are playing 11 forwards, the eleven have to bring something more than just a shot.
The Oilers are in the business of winning. When a player is on his 3rd team, they better show up unlocked.
I think Bruce’s stats say he is much better than his competition.
During this long stretch on injures, I think Holland and team have had some calm feet.
No trading for a “Manning”. Skinner, Holloway and Lavoie in the Bakersfield Bubble and Broberg playing 3 pair minutes in a 7th defenseman role. Found a top 6 winger for free.
So, Perlini on waivers.
Interesting. He won’t necessarily be re-assigned if he clears but his many healthy forwards do they have, even with Malone up?
Keith will be activated but I presumed Broberg would get assigned.
I would think they have more d-men active than needed and not enough forwards.
I also don’t care that, apparently, he found out from his Mom via Oilers’ Twitter.
If you treat an employee unkindly, at any time, that’s a reflection of you. There’s no way around that truth. Now, people will blow it up and perhaps that’s unwarranted, but you can tell much about a company by simply observing their practices.
I agree. It is about building relationships. That is not one of them when he finds out 2nd hand
LT’s right, that’s definitely not the way to do things.
Agree it’s also an interesting move.
I guess they could keep 13F/8D (get Broberg some more practice time with the big club?).
Otherwise they could be assigning Broberg and replacing Perlini with Marody, Griffith, HOLLOWAY??
(I think the last one is unlikely, but it’s obviously also far from impossible)
Wow, I thought Old Dutch was the GM who wanted to be everyone’s friend?
Treating Lamborghini like he’s yesterday’s newspaper is not a good look for the org. I get it, blah blah, hockey is a business…….but they need to be better.
Many seem to assume that the Oiler’s are immediately guilty of deliberately not telling Perlini about waivers. I am sure he did find out about it from his mother, but does anyone know that the Oilers did not attempt to contact Perlini directly and had been unable to contact him? They had a deadline to get him on waiver and then it goes out on twitter. There’s two sides to every story, but many on here only seem to want to see one side. If the Oilers made no effort to contact him, that would be inexcusable. Making a poor effort or having an unintentional breakdown in communication might signal the organization doesn’t value it enough, but one tweet from Perlini’s Mom hardly gives full proof of any of this.
Agreed if the Twitter thing is true, it is a ghastly mistake. One that should have Ken apologize to Perlini personally. Does not send a good message to the hockey world at all. Hope somebody from the Oilers organization will explain how this happened and how it will be avoided in future.
I’m sure Perlini cares. Obviously your different but most folks like to be told personally when being tossed aside and not through your brothers ex girlfriends 2nd cousin.
Redbird said it best, we are way to quick to criticize management without full knowledge of how things went down. They know better than any of us the consequences of treating players badly or being disrespectful. They should not be judged without proper evidence.I would suggest as a community we are doing exactly what we are chastising the management for!
The OIlers cap situation is extremely complicated, being in LTIR and with all the non-LTIR injuries.
Yes, I understand that – the Oilers currently have less apx $100K of cap space but Keith is on regular IR, not LTIR so his activation won’t add any cap – they just need to move out a player for the roster spot and, to me, Broberg makes more sense – don’t need 8D and he should be back playing big minutes in the Bake (and the cap savings is more than moving our Perlini).
A Ducks fan online acquaintance pointed out to me that Mike Smith’s recent performances are nothing to be concerned about… compared with John Gibson’s past 5 games.
In his past 5 games, Gibson has been pulled twice yet still has managed to rack up 23 goals against (15 for Smith) and is sporting a 1-4-0 record (2-3-0 for Smith), while posting a 5.72 GAA and an .820 sv% (Smith is 3.61 and .875).
Worse, all 5 of Gibson’s opponents were division teams: Seattle, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and LA, with the sole win coming against Vancouver. He allowed 4, 4, 7, 4 and 4 GA in those games.
Talk about sewering your playoff hopes…
It’s that time of year for Gibby.
Gibson may just be fed up with the dementor. With a new GM coming, makes the case easier for the GM to find a new coach OR trade Gibson.
He does this every year though: hot start, then fades to average / below average. It predates Eakins.
It is interesting to examine the series of events that leads to the circumstances that resulted in Carolina’s first goal. McDavid has to leave the game due to the high stick, which does give the Oilers a 4 minute power play. Nurse plays almost the last 80 seconds of the powerplay and about 35 seconds beyond. Because of Nurse’s lengthy shift, Manson deploys Niemelainen, Broberg, then back to Niemelainen for the next 3 shifts on the left, to let Nurse rest a bit. On this last shift by Niemelainen filling in for Nurse beside Bouchard, its an offensive zone faceoff against Aho, Teravainen and Svechnikov. Add in the Oilers have McLeod at center, between Hyman and Foegele, since McDavid is off getting stitched up, Nuge is out injured and Draisaitl is bagged from the power play and the Oilers have effectively 3 rookies on the ice.
I am guessing, that with last change, Brind’amour seeing this sent out his top line for the draw. Carolina wins the draw but the Oilers still managed to eventually get control but off the missed Bouchard shot the play goes the other way, and the Oilers’ 5 get overwhelmed by that line in short order (20 seconds after the missed Bouchard shot). The Oilers didn’t do a good job of going after the loose puck on the first missed shot and then left many wide open seams in the zone, that Carolina’s top line quickly exploited.
Playing 15 minutes of the first period on the road, without 4 of your top 7 forwards and your regular 2nd pair LD (and Russell hurt as well), against the 2nd place NHL team at home with only one meaningful injury (D’Angelo) and its no wonder the Oilers were going to face some mismatches. Tough to comeback against a team that is 22-1-2 when leading after 1 but the Oilers gave it a try.
Hopefully, the Oilers get healthy soon, and maintain their level of intensity and commitment once they do.
Looking at the playoff race, we should be cheering for: COL, STL, MIN, CHI, ARI, SJS, SEA for the rest of the way to beat NSH, DAL, WPG, LAK, VGK, VAN & ANA. Probably CGY too, but I’m not sure how many of us could bring ourselves to cheer for them (spits). And we should be cheering against NSH, DAL, WPG, LAK, VGK, VAN, ANA. And we should be cheering for Eastern teams to beat them all.
All games are important from here on, but these games are huge 4 point games for EDM against the teams close to them in the standings:
Mar 22 DAL
Mar 30 LAK
Apr 3 ANA
Apr 7 LAK
Apr 14 NSH
Apr 16 VGK
Apr 20 DAL
Apr 29 VAN
If all goes according to plan, the games that will matter are against LAK and VGK in the battle for 2nd / 3rd place in the Pacific. I think ANA and VAN are done – just too much ground to make up unless they can go on a real heater (ie win 16 of 20). I will leave one of LAK and VGK to battle the Central for wild card spots.
Of note: Oil have to beat CGY in the remianing 2 games in cowtown as ABC still holds true and Calgary sucks (and always will).
I wouldn’t count ANA and VAN out yet… they’re only 2 and 3 points back and Edmonton has 2 games in hand. At just over a point per game pace, EDM would likely be up 4 or 5 points. When they play each other, those games alone are worth about 4 points. Remember in 2019, STL, was in last place on January 3.
Really enjoying watching Ryan McLeod grow into an NHL player in real time
I am too! but I must say, I’d prefer his ice time be kept down the middle of the ice so that when the Oilers lose a middleman they have one fully up to speed focused on the middle of the ice that hasn’t been trying to concentrate his game to wing.
Since the prospects all have a day off, this is a good time to check in on some stats:
Carter Savoie, Denver
30 GP, 18-18-36
T-16th in NCAA points (T-2nd in team points)
T-9th in NCAA goals
3rd in NCAA PP goals
Filip Engaras, New Hampshire
30 GP, 7-12-19
3rd in team points
Skyler Brind’Amour, Quinnipiac
35 GP, 2-13-15
11th in team points
Tomas Mazura, Providence
8 GP, 1-1-2
currently injured, hasn’t played since Dec. 10
Luca Munzenberger, Vermont
28 GP, 0-3-3
39 PIM, >2x as many as anyone else on team
Shane Lachance, Youngstown
36 GP, 6-8-14
11 in team points
currently injured
Xavier Bourgault, Shawinigan
25 GP, 22-21-43
T-1st for league PP goals (13)
currently injured, hasn’t played since Feb. 4
Matvey Petrov, North Bay
47 GP, 30-40-70
8th in league points
T-2 in league ES goals (24)
Ty Tullio, Oshawa
48 GP, 28-40-68
9th in league points
1st in league SOG (221)
T-3rd in league PP goals (12)
Maximus Wanner, Moose Jaw
53 GP, 6-17-23
9th in team scoring (3rd among team d-men)
Jake Chiasson, Wheat Kings
2 GP, 0-0-0
has recently returned from prolonged injury
—————————————————-
There are 59 schools in NCAA Div-1:
Denver leads in GP/G (4.44) and 2nd in PP% (27.3), but 11th worst PK (75.6).
Quinnipiac leads in GA/G (a nutty 0.94) and in PK% (92.1), but 6th worst PP% (13.7).
Can you imagine what a Denver-Qunnipiac Frozen Four final would look like? It’d be the ultimate “Irresistible Force vs. Immovable Object” matchup.
Vermont, as LT says, “can’t piss a drop” offensively: tied for 2nd last in GP/G (1.68) and 5th worst PP% (13.1). Their leading scorer has 16 points in 31 games.
New NCAA rankings today: Denver still #3, Qunnipiac drops one spot to #6, Providence stays at #19.
Thanks Tarkus!
i appreciate your work here, thank you
As I said last week (I think), for this team to get any points against any team with 3 rookie D, and Nuge, Yamo, Puljujarvi and hell even Kassian out is impressive.
With this in mind, Gully might want to do some just in case PP practice without McDavid, as they were utterly lost.
AND SO…… Our attention turns to the procurement of a RHD.
God’s Speed Kenny
Randle’s Three Stars from last nights highly entertaining 3 Ring Circus.
3) McDavid’s chicklets
2) That one blue line that did it’s damnedest to keep the Goals Against low.
And … La Première Etoile…Da Firts Star.
1) That guy that caught a stanchion in his net (and couldn’t get the hook out of it’s mouth)
The game was yesterday morning
Very satisfied with the Oilers 5v5 against the Canes. They have a tough PK too, and obviously missing McDavid on the 4 minute PP sucked hard. Who would have thought it would be Brady Skjei who forked Connor in the teeth, not once but twice?
I think Bouchard did play well, and don’t blame him for the opening goal – that was indeed well-worked and there was some scramble play by the forwards as well.
Haven’t gone over it in detail, but seems to me the last couple of games the opposition is hard targeting the Niemelainen-Bouchard line. I think they’re coming in hard on Markus’ side and neither of them have the fastest wheels.
I know we don’t have Keith or Russell but they might want to switch off Niemelainen-Bouch if they can.
Surprised nobody had anything to say to Skjei after that, though at least Draisaitl rattled his cage with a hard hit when he got a chance, late in the second.
The other, better way to retaliate is with a powerplay goal/s, but that 4 minute PP was beyond pathetic in McDavid’s absence. They got outshot 3-1 for pete’s sake.
Without McDavid and Nugent Hopkins as well (he has been very important to the PP as well). And Jesse is on the first unit as much as Hyman. The 4 minute powerplay started as a 4 on 3 with Drai, Hyman, Kane and Barrie, with Leon coughing up the puck leading to the first 2 short handed shots against then an icing that resulted in a lost faceoff followed by the 3rd shot against. For the Oilers’ second unit in this stretch they went with Foegele, Benson, Nurse and Bouchard.
The Oilers are missing McDavid, Hopkins, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto (always on the second unit) for the first 5 minutes of their power play time in the game and they can’t click like a well oiled machine against the best PK in the league, and you’re surprised by this.
Where did I express surprise? I merely pointed out that the PP opportunity was entirely wasted.
Maybe I over interpreted your “beyond pathetic” and for “pete’s sake” rhetoric which seemed harsh without proper context.
Well you should be able to put your 5 worst players out vs 4 opponents & not get outshot for pete’s sake. Oilers were pretty rattled at that point in time.
This is absolutely correct, though it’s also impressive that Carolina leads the league with almost 30%SF at 4v5.
On the first 4 minute PP of course they were rattled. They just saw their Captain go down the tunnel with who knows what injury to his mouth and had to do a power play without their usual entry guy (and w/o Hopkins) against the best PK in the league that pressures everyone’s PP into mistakes. When Washington lost Ovechkin just before the Oilers game, the Oiler’s PK proceeded to outshoot the Capitals PP 3-0 over the whole game. Yes it was a missed opportunity, but I am not going to rake them over the coals for it.
I too was disappointed at the lack of message delivered to Skjei!. If you aren’t going to stand up for your captain who will you stand up for???
McDavid and Nuge is a big chunk out of the power play.
Does Evander Kane have a history of being a “streaky” goal scorer?
Most players take a while to adjust to their new circumstances.
Some veteran players even hold something in reserve for playoffs or elimination games.
Here’s hoping Evander goes all “Derek Ryan” on us some time soon.
For the time being, I don’t see him as any type of liability.
He’s not a liability, but definitely have seen him less impactful by eye last couple of games. Might just be still getting into mid-season gear against a few of the top teams in the league, who knows.
Most scorers are streaky
Only a few stay at the top because it’s so hard to do
Correction: all goal scorers are streaky.
– In his past 11 games Ovechkin has just 3 goals. That stretch includes a 6-game goal drought.
– Matthews had a 4-game goalless streak in January.
– Draisaitl had a 4-game drought in December.
I wouldn’t be overly worried about Kane’s current 3-game drought – especially considering the opponents. He’s still getting up to speed.
Serious question.
How do you do this?
“It’s a hard way to find out
That trouble is real
In a faraway city
With a faraway feel”
Have you committed SO MANY lyrics to memory that you can recall them according to relevance?
Top 40 radio training?
#Kudos
LT: Good catch on the Smith stumble on the GWG ( or as I call it from an Oilers perspective, the GLGA). Smith lost an edge and rotated to his right, wasn’t square to the shooter, and was in no position to react to Aho’s shot, which went right into the middle of the net.
Whether it was a mere stumble or (my bet) the latest manifestation of a lower body injury he has never fully shaken, it went completely unnoticed & uncommented by a broadcast crew which seems utterly unwilling to objectively analyze let alone criticize this particular player’s performance. But to my eye he has not been physically right at any point in his now three returns to action since his initial injury in October.
Honestly even Smith’s stickhandling hasn’t been quite as good. I’ve got bad hips, know how it feels. Skiing at Marmot last week nearly killed me.
I noticed this too.
He is out of position. Over-committed to the one-timer that never happened.
The Pesce goal also hit near the middle of the net.
Hurt or “done”?
I guess we will find out over the next week or so…either way.
He wasn’t over-committed, he stumbled. Maybe that stumble was due to his injuries, but he had to come all the way across to that shooter. Many PP goals are scored on those cross seam passes for the side one timer. Other than the stumble, Shore is partly to blame for collapsing away from Aho.
over-committed/stumbled – whatever. OUT OF POSITION. NOT SQUARE TO THE SHOOTER; HE WAS FACING THE CORNER.
But there is a difference. One is a mental mistake, the other is a physical mistake. Over-committing is making the wrong decision, stumbling is trying to do the right thing and not executing properly. The stumble could be due to bad ice, or something due to his technique or injury. If and how these can be fixed to not occur as often again is a different task.
He was physically facing a direction that was not square to the assumed initial shooter. I am not going to guess if it is physical or mental error. I called it over-committed because he was not in a proper position for the assumed initial shooter (he came over too far and was basically facing the corner-side boards, not the location of the assumed shooter) and not able to recover in time to be ready for the actual shooter.
I don’t know what replay you watched, but Smith never goes passed being squared up to Teravainen. His chest only goes as far as facing the faceoff dot which was even slightly inside where Teravainen was even when he stumbles on the push off to comeback to Aho.
I think you have to give the Canes some credit for some slick puck movement . Most 39 year old goalies would have been completely deked out of more than just their shorts , Smith deserves credit for only stumbling .
You also have to congratulate for some excellent tackling particularly on Draisaitl!😉
The ice was pretty bad last night. Whole road trip thus far actually. Pretty much every player stumbled at some point yesterday.
Don’t think one stumble from Smith is evidence of anything.
I only caught bits and pieces of the game munching the roaming date here in Central America (Miguel Antonio, Costa Rica is UNREAL) but I read and saw some twitter highlights of Nurse beasting.
Those Nurse/Ceci numbers are amazing, even moreso when they faced the toughs of a top team (presumably).
Nurse is who we though he is – maybe not a $9.25MM d-man but massively important on this team and, really, not all that far off next year’s cap.
Codi Ceci has been a massive addition to this team, massive. Many seemed to only remember his Senator days and Leaf day before he reinvented his game as a more mature d-man in Pit. The Pit fans hated to see him go and he is showing us why.
So, the Knight starting tender gets hurt and they seem to be plummeting down the standings…. perhaps their skater roster isn’t actually any better than the Oilers and goaltending is the only delta between the teams
Both teams have had signifigant injury issues though the year, and currently
The difference is Vegas will get the goaltending help before the deadline and the Oilers .
Well …. who knows ?
At what point does a steady hand on the rudder transition to just being asleep at the wheel?
When you crash the fence and the cows wander on to the highway.
I feel like we’ve already been waiting till the cows come home for a goalie acquisition.
The Oilers have a goalie. Skinner. They should play him.
And that good sir is why you are the man! Best reply of the day in my opinion! Thanks for all you do!
It is in the past and I know it cant be undone, but for the love of God, why was Bouchard not playing more last year? I believe he would be so much better in his own end now, thus making the D a little stronger. You can not break in 4 rookie D in 1 year and expect to go far.
And therein lies one of the many the reasons I was advocating for Tipp to be fired LAST SEASON.
The only place he could have played more last season is in Bakersfield and that only didn’t happen due to the pandemic and the taxi-squad as clearly stated by Holland. He was only kept in Edmonton for injury cover that effectively never came after Bear returned to health. The only player he could have been subbed in for was Bear and he hadn’t earned that either.
Bullshit.
I think most would agree that Holland took too long to pull the trigger on the coaching change. It would have been ideal to try and break that long losing streak, and give the new coaching staff the benefit of the extended time off to practice.
Does he wait too long to pull the trigger on any possible trades as well? Will this be a year to look back and think about what could have been?
I wonder , over the course of his career as a GM , how many good trades fell through because of his indecision ? And then he has to settle for something of lesser quality .
Whether or not this is true, you shouldn’t forget the other side.
Most GMs and near everyone on this board would have traded Puljujarvi for less than 100 cents on the dollar, but that’s not what happened in the end.
“Patience,” has to be the mantra of any NHL GM.
I think most would agree that no GM anywhere acts as fast as fan wrath…
Thank Gord.
Some just act quicker than others .
You snooze , you lose .
…And haste makes waste.
😛
Haste makes Chiarelli…
Sorry Munny should have read further.
Haste makes waste!😉
The Oilers start March out of the playoffs, they’re best hope is to squeak in and face a very formidable opponent on their current seasonal pace. Management has not done this organization too many favors. I have been very impressed with how much better they compete under Woodcroft. If they can figure out the PP this team has a chance to make a little noise this month and next. I was wondering if they might recall Lavoie or Holloway?
What we’ve seen over the past two weeks is closer to the team’s overall level of play not the stinker 6 weeks sandwiched in the middle.
People got too wrapped up in HH’s negativity.
The last two months feature a lot of Pacific Division play and I’d say three games (two against the Avs, one against TBay) that you’d consider L’s before the puck is dropped. After this road trip they are sleeping in their own beds for the next two weeks and for the rest of the year its quick hit trips to Col, Texas, California and a stretched out swing through Nashville and Minny.
They won’t limp into the playoffs, they’ll make a run for the Division title. Expect a 2016/2017 finish and Leon and Connor to pull away in the scoring race.
I think someone here posted that teams are averaging 1.1 points or something on that 3 game south east road swing. We can’t be too upset with 2 points and 3 good efforts while missing our 1RW, 2RW and 3C who plays all disciplines.
And Keith, why is everybody forgetting about Keith?
Good point!! I forgot about Keith!
He’s still shaking the cob webs . That was some hit he took .
1LD 3LD 4LD could have helped potentially as well.
Between March 14 and March 31, the Flames play 7 games at home and only 1 on the road.
Of those 8 games, 6 games are against teams not currently in a playoff position.
Also worth noting, the Flames have won 11 straight games at home.
Theyre being rewarded for playing one of the toughest schedules early in the season.
Catching them is a monumental task.
No one is talking about the Flames, we’re waving Oilers pom pom’s. Go clean some goal posts Captain underdog.
The Flames also got fortunate in that most of their team tested positive around the same time, got a bunch of games postponed & returned to action with pretty much a full line-up. Whereas a team like, say, the Oilers, suffered a long string of positive tests over a span of 7 weeks that left them short a few players here & there for most of their games over that time. Simultaneous injury bug added to the misery. Funnily enough, the squad went into the tank & largely stayed there during those long weeks. Must have been a coincidence. 😒
All true but also water under the bridge.
Being a troll you should know bridges!
Teams not actually in the playoffs, like the Canucks who beat the flames 7-1?
No teams win them all.
Did you want to discuss the Flames poor record at home?
And yes, Manuel Antonio is paradise.
I worked in Costa Rica near there back in the day…a fabulous experience…enjoy!
So they tossed you out!
I think you’re on a solo dash in this area. Good luck though. Oilers fans are focused on third place Pacific and the final two wildcard spots. Flames have been exceptional, give them their due. But your framing of a non-story is clearly baiting and even this board is unlikely to follow you down the drain hole in this instance.
I was responding to Mirinov why suggested a run for the division title is in the cards in March.
Tough task.
“even this board” ??
Was that a shot?….I think that was a shot!
(its a movie line….but I can’t remember the movie)
Got it. Dan Akroyd as Roman in The Great Outdoors … addressing John Candy.
As in HH is a hot dog?
Vegas first, then Calgary. Calgary first, then Vegas. Does it really make a difference?
You have to be able to beat any team
Some things help. Or just make your own fortune
Go exercise your hip and rest your lip! You will seem so much smarter!😭😭
Also, kudos to our host for the bullseye on the February point total. There are a lot of hot takes when LT makes his predictions at the start of the month, so we have to give credit when due!!
I think we are having a very different conversation about Smith if that Pesce goal was allowed to stand. That was a “here we go again” moment. A solid enough game from him otherwise, but nothing that would make me go back to him the next game.
Are we comfortable with our goaltending tandem?
If you have to ask the question …
Given the youth on D and Barrie not a bonafide top four D it might not have been much different with a different goalie/goalies. Too soon we forget the decimated left side D for a an extended time.
yup. His disallowed goal basically went in the middle of the net.
The offside play by Foegle can’t happen at this level. There was no need to cut it that close when McD is flying down the other wing.
It is one thing to be in full flight and there is a split second timing window. But that wasn’t the case. He just lost his sense of space while changing direction.
A crushing play that changed the course of the game.
Amazing how small moments have such big impacts at both ends of the ice. Tough sport.
About the only positive to take from that play was when McDavid gave Foegele a little pat on the back later on. Players will follow a leader like that with much more exuberance than one who screams at them.
Still waiting for the definitive image to convince me that was offside. The only angle shown to justify the call didn’t include an important detail — the puck! It was obscured by the near side boards. From the end zone replay (where you can’t see Foegele) McDavid had pushed it ahead & was just overtaking it when he hit the bueline, yet the assumption from the main camera angle seemed to be you can see where his stick is & can derive where his blade must be, the puck must be on it, right?
Presumably they did have the blueline cam on it, but they never showed it. They showed that view for the disallowed Carolina goal. But from what we saw on TV you can conclude Foegele beat the blade of McDavid’s stick over the line, but that’s different from beating the puck.
The linesmen had a brutal game (offsides & icings both) & so did the refs, although Kelly Sutherland did do a great job of leaping over the fallen bodies of two different Oilers who had been fouled directly in front of him without actually noticing what caused them to go down in the first place.
The tackling on Leon was impressive throughout the game. A legal defensive play who knew!
It was a disgrace.
It sure seems to happen a lot.
Bring on the robot refs.
I doubt very much they made the call based only on the camera view the TV audience saw. They overturned the play with almost no deliberation. Since the call on the ice was not offside, they would needed to have conclusive evidence to overturn it, which they did very quickly and the Oilers didn’t even put up a fuss. I am sure the Oilers video team saw whatever the Carolina team saw and the linesman as well. No question though that overall the officiating is not distinguishing itself in this or many other games.
Sounds like Bruce was chomping on sour grapes this morning.
Yep. I’ve learned to trust my instints, when I’m still pissed off the day after the game it’s because there is cause. Usually I have left it behind by then. But yesterday’s officiating was junk, & it played a role in a 2-1 regulation game.
I was thinking the same thing… where’s the blue line shot that shows it definitively, because the one showed on the TV replay sure doesn’t.
Matheson’s article on the game today says he was obviously offside, so I’d like to see the same angle he did (if he actually did have a different view).
Your last paragraph about Kelly Sutherland is gold!
Jack Michaels called it a no brainer based on the TV angle that did not show the puck, the assumption being it was glued to McDavid’s stick. But the end zone angle suggested otherwise.
The first time in a while I would have liked to see the Fox puck.
The local broadcast crew are game refereeing apologists to the point that it is embarrassing!
“However, there’s no way the general manager is going to flush his starter after he posted that game.”
Lets assume you are right and that they continue winning at 6-3 segments to sneak into the playoffs.Is there a team with a goaltending duo where we could conceivably have the edge in net? Even Smith at his absolute best was second to Hellebuyck
Smith at his best is second to any of the playoff team’s starters.
I guess we can consider Smith’s ‘best’ the .923 SV% he posted last season.
And that’s better than -checks-…
well that’s better than a large majority of playoff team’s starters.
(only 5 goalies with 20+ games this season have better than .923 SV%s, and 2 of those, Swayman and Husso, have started less games than their caddy-mates)
I get he’s having a rougher year absolute stat wise, but Hellebuyck is still 9th best in the league for goals saved above expected (14.9), he’s a heck of a goalie.
Shesterkin and Freddie Andersen are running away with that stat category btw, 31.1 and 30.0 respectively. 3rd place is Vasilevsky with 19.6.
Not sure if Smith should be considered a starter at this point in his career .