Jay Woodcroft is 12-6-2 in his first 20 NHL games as a head coach. Glen Sather went 3-12-5 in his first 20 as Oilers coach, Craig MacTavish 10-8-2 and John Muckler 6-9-5.
Two of those men won Stanley in Edmonton as head coaches. The other went to Game 7 with his best team. Jay Woodcroft has turned many things around in those 20 games, but there are still roster issues to overcome.
Last night was a bad beat. Best not to lose track of what’s important.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ 2022 draft strategy takes shape after trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers’ solid deadline adds depth but without goaltending upgrade, top concern remains
- Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
- Lowetide: 9 Oilers prospects who could be available in trade at the deadline
- Lowetide: Is Oilers winger Warren Foegele doing enough to warrant his contract?
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline
- DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
- Lowetide: Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci emerging as top pair for Oilers
- Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s case for a spot on Oilers’ skill lines
- DNB: Oilers’ recent play only underscores that upcoming trade deadline must be a time to act
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- DNB: Markus Niemelainen collecting catchy nicknames as his surprise breakout accelerates
- DNB and Lowetide: Who says no? Evaluating 25 Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
- DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
- Lowetide: 3 trade targets that could help Oilers this season and beyond
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline expectations? Mailbag
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH
- On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 5-0-0)
- On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
- Actual March results: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 35-24-5, 75 points in 64 games
The blowout losses are easier to take than the losses that arrive right after you begin to trust the two points are being placed in the bank. All kinds of outrage can occur in those moments and last night was such a case. In truth, a 12-6-2 run is a splendid quarter of any season, no matter how bad the twentieth game feels. Vegas losing again eases the pain a little, unless you become even more enraged because the points would have brought the team closer to third place in the Pacific.
Just so we’re clear: The Oilers are alone in third place, three points up on the VGK with two games in hand. The Golden Knights have 16 games left. If that team goes 9-5-2, the final record would be 43-33-6, 92 points. If the Oilers go 8-8-2 in their final 18 games, the final record would be 43-32-7, 93 points. Is 18 points in the final 18 games too big an ask? I don’t think it is.
GOALTENDER
Mikko Koskinen stopped 23 of 27, .852 save percentage. He was 6-1-1 with a .920 SP entering the game, so we can probably forgive the loss. Here is how I saw the goals:
- First goal: Kris Russell loses the puck at the blue line, unaware of Jamie Benn coming onto the ice behind him. Benn pass to Jason Robertson, quick release and a tip of Darnell Nurse’s stick and it’s 1-1.
- Second goal: Shot from the point by John Klingberg, Koskinen makes an awkward save and places the rebound at Joe Pavelski’s feet. Mistake. 2-1 Dallas.
- Third goal: Outstanding backpass by John Klingberg that caught every Oilers player along the line (four in all) either flat-footed, going the wrong way or impossibly out of position. Darnell Nurse took heavy blame on line for the play (he wasn’t gapped with Ceci, but Ceci wasn’t in position either, so there was uncertainty), I don’t think anyone catches Hintz. It’s the pass that was key. Sometimes you have to give the other man his due and as I see it Nurse was the linebacker look at three possible lanes of attack. Credit Klingberg and Hintz, or hammer Nurse. Your choice.
- Fourth goal: Ceci in a 50-50 battle near the red line on the RH side, Evander Kane does a fly-by instead of offering backup (he needed to be right side by the blue line until certain of the next sequence). Two-on-one, Nurse leaves his feet (effectively taking himself out of the play) and Connor McDavid is hair late getting back. Gurianov from Seguin was the bullet to the heart on this night. If you’re mad at Nurse today, this should probably be the goal, with some ire for Kane in not backing up Ceci.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse had a tough night, likely the worst performance in what has been a fine season for the big man. He took a penalty, was 8-6 shots and 1-2 goals five-on-five. The key reason for on-line upset was his role (or his lack of a role) in the final two goals. I don’t think the Hintz goal was a play he could have made (he had no defensive partner, and no indication Hintz would get the puck), but the winning goal could have been altered by 25. That’s a big play he didn’t make. Cody Ceci got caught up at the blue line, support from Kane should have been there. Pairing spent much of the night against Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz and that’s a tough assignment.
Duncan Keith had a shot, a blocked shot, took a penalty and was in chase mode despite the possession numbers on the night. Evan Bouchard picked up an assist, four shots on goal, two blocks and 8-5 shots. The pairing wasn’t dynamic, but won the possession battle and didn’t give up a goal. Bouchard did get some PP time but it didn’t result in a goal.
Kris Russell lost possession in a bad spot on the first goal against and was on the ice for the Pavelski marker. Two shots, blocked shot and drew a penalty. Tyson Barrie had two shots and plenty of PP time but couldn’t help the team offensively.
FORWARDS
Zach Hyman had a lot of try and looked dangerous as always as he carried the puck into the offensive zone and then circled behind the net and out the other side. Missing was his usual magic, perhaps a reflection of three games in four nights. That isn’t an excuse, but it is a reason. Leon Draisaitl scored a goal, had two shots, played 25 minutes, one HDSC and continued his attack on opposition neutral zone passes. He did look tired at times. Jesse Puljuarvi had the most jump on this line, two shots, one HDSC and he drew a penalty. Late in the game, when things were rhyming for Edmonton, he had a glorious look in the high slot and passed off. Now, maybe he has a nagging injury or maybe he felt the pass was the better play, but the young man needs to hammer that puck to kingdom come there.
Evander Kane scored yet another goal, but the fly-by on the winner really hurt. Three shots, four hits, one HDSC, the big man is quite the offensive package. Connor McDavid was dynamic and dangerous, I remain flummoxed that the power play isn’t cashing. He is doing great work there. Two assists, HDSC, drew a penalty, two shots, six more attempts and dozens of looks on the left side during power plays. McDavid is feeling it, he’s going to hammer some poor team soon. Kailer Yamamoto remains hot as hades, six goals in his last seven games and now 17 tallies on the year.
Warren Foegele had a couple of shots on goal and two more attempts, he hit a Dallas player but didn’t get credit for it. One HDSC and a couple of promising rushes on the night. Derek Ryan had one shot and a HDSC, while Devin Shore picked up an assist and a penalty. He was also on the line when Hintz went flying by like a snowball heading for hell.
Brad Malone was physical and didn’t get a chance to do much else, playing under six minutes. Ryan McLeod played seven minutes but didn’t get much done. Zack Kassian took a penalty, played 7:07 and played 2:41 after the penalty (taken midway through the game).
LINES AND PAIRINGS WITH NEW ARRIVALS AND NUGE
- Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
- Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
- Foegele-Nuge-Ryan
- McLeod-Brassard-Archibald or Kassian
- Nurse-Ceci
- Kulak-Barrie
- Keith-Bouchard
Once third place is secure, the Oilers might do some auditioning of various Condors, I wrote about that earlier this week. I do think Kulak will be the second pairing LH option in short order, said that on deadline day. Keith has played well, but mobility is going to be an issue and Kulak is a faster man. I think McLeod has a chance to find a role in the top-nine forwards, just not certain where it will come. Nuge coming back is a massive deal, it’ll give some respite to the men working big minutes currently.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, there’s a lot to unpack. Bruce McCurdy will join us from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal, likely spitting nails in regard to Dallas and the Stars. Joe Osborne from Odds Shark will chime in on the Blue Jays chances of winning the division and World Series. And my friend Hernan Salas is moving on up to a big time gig with the Edmonton Elks, we’ll congratulate him even though we miss him already. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Three back with a game in hand on LA and we play them twice more, one home and one away. We are in control of our own destiny with regards to second place.
There are new guys coming in, but they don’t move the needle a whole bunch. What I mean is, Russell has been pretty good since coming back, despite a few rough moments last game (and some positive ones). Kulak is better, but how many more wins over ten games do you get if he is in the line-up instead? It will be material and probably small.
The counter is that Kulak was pretty darn skilled in junior and more was expected of him offensively when he was drafted than he has provided. Who knows what Manson can do with him. He seems a bit of a Dman whisperer. Local boy playing on his childhood team, recently a dad IIRC, and who wants to make his own parents proud… you just never know. This could be one seriously motivated individual. Maybe we see this guy pop.
Just wish we had got some physical on deadline day. Everyone knows the different look that Nemo gave this team. They tried to get Lauzon. Makes me wonder what might have been. But there is no doubt in my mind that Holland is building this team for speed up and down the line-up.
(The nice thing about Kulak though is he can handle second pairing qualcomp. Which make the 2nd round draft pick to Chicago less likely to happen when the other clause vests 😉 )
I know the focus is on the top 6 and the change the signing of Kane has wrought, but when was the last time we saw our bottom six this deep or this fast? You can make arguments for nearly every forward staying in the lineup.
This is how I run, adding Nuge and the New Kids on the Block…
Kane–MickeyD–Yamo
Hyman–Drai–Pujo
Foegele–Nuge–Ryan
McLeod–Brass–Archie
Although I am not certain if Brassard is a better player than Shore right now. Easy enough to make a switch if he proves not to be. Kass needs to sit for a game. Maybe even only see road games.
Nurse–Ceci
Kulak–Barrie
Keith–Boosh
Kowboy
We look one defenceman away from really very good to my eye.
My four call-ups…
Skinner
Broberg
Nemo
Malone
Avalanche once again getting the calls and not getting penalties called on them.
That makes two games in a row without a 5×5 goal. Have to go back 2 games and 2 periods since that happened.
Watched some of that game and thought the same thing, refs’ sweethearts.
feels like hawkee seesun
Summarizing!
The Bourg finished 1+1 in a 6-3 loss.
After going pointless in his first two games back, he now has six points in his last two.
Since Oilers have 18 games remaining, I decided to conduct a careful analysis of these games and have come up with either a 98 or 99 points finish.
Does this seem realistic?
I did the same and came up with an even rosier 103-105 point final tally. I guess we are both optimists!
Have the Leafs/Devils game on in the background while getting some sups made, glancing every once in a while to see just how different games for the Leafs are called by the refs. Not really expecting anything but ya never know…
And no joke. They just REVERSED a tripping penalty call on Gio. Serisously, they actually called a penalty, had a meating about it, and f*&^ing reversed it!! No penalty for the Leafs.
I am just completely disgusted with this league at this point. Pathetic.
You really hate the Toronto Maple Leafs, don’t you?
Speaking on his behalf, yes we do.
Yes. We do. Hate is an understatement.
The Bourg snipes one from between the circles in period 3:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cataractes_Shaw/status/1506799809201688579?cxt=HHwWhsC-8a2cnekpAAAA
EDIT: Now give him an aPPle too as Shawinigan draws within two.
Friedman with any in-depth look at the Dadanov situation and a bit of Oiler news.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-evgenii-dadonov-and-trade-deadline-fallout/
13. Edmonton liked Arturri Lehkonen, but couldn’t pay the same price as Colorado.
Tiny violins are playing softly as those across the hockey world weep for the poor Vegas Golden Knights. Right now they can’t activate Stone or Martinez without someone else going on LTIR. They can put multiples of Pacioretty, Smith, Lehner or McNabb there to potentially free up enough space, but that only buys them the time until those guys are healthy unless they believe they won’t be back in the regular season either. Or they can be real dicks and trade Dadonov to another team who will give them LTIR back, forcing a healthy Dadonov to sit out the rest of the season. Yes it is a business, but in any business, if you abuse relationships, it will generally come back to haunt. you.
What a wonderfully recursive metaphor. Worthy of Godel, that.
They HAVE to do something though when Martinez is ready to come off and, from accounts, that’s like now.
They should be sanctioned by the league for non cap compliance.
several nuggets in the 32 thoughts piece- this snippet from Friedman is relevant to today’s discussion.
It also runs counter to what (most of us) believed – myself included – that a player traded after the deadline can’t play in the playoffs. Turns out, he can’t play at all
-there is nothing being considered to allow Dadonov to play if he is traded. CapFriendly had this correct: NHL bylaws forbid anyone traded after the deadline from playing for their new team the rest of that season, including playoffs
Also, per Friedman, several teams inquired about Chara but Lou had promised him (and Andy Greene) that they would stay with the Islanders for the entire season
Emerald City Hockey
@EmeraldCityHky
·
1m
Friedman mentions the #SEAKrake
as a possible option for Dadonov.
“The Kraken have a ton of cap room, and will be searching for offence.”
I don’t love the contract but if VGK attach enough assets, it could be worth looking into.
What kind of logo is that? Is that squid using a Krak pipe?
It’s a hockey stick….and a puck.
Lol it looks like the squid is yanking out its own tongue with one of its tentacles.
I haven’t paid attention to the Kraken, but is that actually one of their logos?
Nurse was an overpay, fair enough done now
I don’t agree the market was set, there is no reason to match cap hits, it may be an ask, the agent’s job, but it isn’t set in stone as we see time and again on other teams
I think it is very fair to say Lindholm is a better overall D than Nurse
Top teams if they are serious about contending do not pay top dollar for re-signing players
There is a home town discount, especially if the player is a drafted player and believes, they chip in a bit to help the team be stronger
I only need to say Connor did it, no agent can argue around that precedent. It should have been the Oilers signing mandate as other teams do
Holland is shooting his toes off one at time and will fall on his face because of it if he’s allowed to continue
We hope for a great playoff run, I hope somehow in the off season there is another shift and Holland gives the deal and cap reigns to a person more attuned or interested in carving some cap off each deal for everyone’s best interest
The players you want have winning a cup above all else, I think that is why Lindholm signed what he did
Does anyone notice the difference personally between 8M US and 9.25? Other than bragging rights? A number in a bank account
Cups are the best bragging rights, and I have no time for money chasers anywhere, that are already loaded
Not that Nurse was, but Holland could have set a line and made the argument, and seen what Nurse wanted most
I think the Oilers. I highly doubt the ask was tested and Mr Nice Guy gave more than he should
100%
I agree with most of what you say, though 1.25M over 8 years is $10M. Athletic careers are relatively short, and Nurse won’t have the opportunity to earn like this again. That $10M will mean a lot in his life after hockey.
It’s an overpay and I don’t want to see Holland negotiate another contract, but we’re stuck at this point.
Holland helps out his buddy Bowman by taking on Keith’s contact which allows Bowman to sign his cornerstone D-man to a huge contract. Bowman also manages to team up Seth with his brother a’la-mode. By signing Seth to his contract this sets the market for lucky 7’s Nurse who then tap dances his way into a sweetheart deal.
The contract’s been rehashed over and over again – Nurse should never have been paid more than Leon. That was the line, and Holland should not have budged.
But my problem with Nurse right now is that he is playing at standard far below what he is capable of. The guy is an athletic beast, but his decision making has just been awful at times this season.
The Colorado game was another prime example – as soon as he lost his lid he just tore off back to the bench in a complete panic to get off. Take the penalty, but you NEVER leave your goalie out to dry like that. He could have complained about Kadri being at fault after the fact, or he could have hunted down the prick and started pummelling him with punches. Instead. He. Just. Left. The. Ice.
He used to be more dirty and intimidating as well – we haven’t seen that as much this year. Every year he got better, but this year there has been a significant regression.
This stuff can be fixed by coaching or it can be fixed by shipping him out of Edmonton before the extension kicks in. But he’s set to be one of the top ten paid D-men in the league and he has been no where near that level this year.
He’s trying to hard needs to play the quiet simple game with the odd nasty hit to keep the opposition honest Pronger style. Nurse is the core hopefully for that reason Leon stays as well as Connor. It’s hard to leave your Bro’s but you need to keep the Missus happy first.
Stats give us guideposts and a measuring stick, and they get better as we go
One stat I am not aware of is BF/60 – Brain Farts per 60
For me the difference between the best winners and the rest is managing risk and luck, because hockey has a large luck component
The best are good at not making mistakes at critical junctures often, nobody is perfect
The Oilers have work to do here, and I think not all players can dial that in, and if they can’t you should be actively trying to upgrade them
Which is why a team can reward a good player but HAVE to leave themselves an out at some point
Things change
That powerplay eh?
Is there an opportunity to trade the contract of Oscar Klefbom to Vegas at a premium to provide them LTIR? Can anyone decipher what the cap implications would be for the Oilers for the rest of this season?
How come other teams do this why can’t we?
We can trade klefbom and his ltir salary. But in season it helps us nothing. We have spent that 4 million already. Where it sucks is before the season starts, as I believe we need to be cap compliant WITH klefbom on day 1, before we start spending. Hence the need for a bunch of paper transactions to start the season.
I know but other teams manage to do this and have a fresh start. Why are we still paying for Sekera Holland trades picks and buy-out players like a drunken sailor. Why didn’t Holland dump Mikko on the Keith trade instead the Oilers help out the Hawks who were in a real pickle. The Hawks dump Keith get the Brother of the free agent they were wooing. OP can keep jabbering that adding Caleb had nothing to do with the Hawks landing Seth who funny enough drives up Nurse’s contract. I call Bullshit! Charity begins at home not in Chicago or Detroit.
Caleb Jones had nothing to do with Columbus trading Seth Jones to Chicago and Jones agreeing to sign a massive contract.
How do you know did you ask Seth what the tipping point was to sign in Chicago?
I think Seth Jones would have signed the $76MM contract even if his little brother wasn’t on the team.
When did he tell you this?
I just read a old article after the Keith-Caleb trade and how it could set up a trade for Seth in Columbus. Also read many other articles on how happy the old man Popeye was to see his 2 boys playing together as they are understandably a close-knit family. I guess some folks can’t figure out puzzles on their own. When it’s written on the box 4 to 6 years that’s not how long it should take to complete the puzzle.
Did Bill Zito tell you he was going to trade his dead cap space this off-season as the last piece of a brilliant scheme?
Not even you believe that Seth Jones would have turned down the $76MM offer if his baby brother wasn’t on the team – the other poster actually might believe that but you don’t and you are just being your normal argumentative self.
First, any player Edmonton would get back now in a trade is ineligible certainly for the playoffs and perhaps even ineligible for the rest of the regular season.
Second, since it won’t help Edmonton get better this season, why would they want improve Vegas’s chances of overtaking them in the standings by giving them the opportunity to reactivate Stone.
I completely understand your thinking, it would be playing it extremely close to the wire. Inside the division, to a rival, there would have to be a heavy premium if the deal were workable at all. But at the same time if they were desperate enough to avoid being sanctioned by the league maybe next years unprotected first round pick would move the needle? I’m not sure Klefbom’s contract would even give them enough relief to deactivate Martinez and get them out of the pile of crap they stepped in.
Don’t take my comment as gospel as LTIR is incredibly complicated, but I think the Oilers need Klefbom and his $4.1M just to get through day to day…his LTIR reserves got us to this point in the season
That’s the other half of my question. I honestly have no idea, since they used off-season LTIR to become cap compliant, whether they can become cap compliant the old fashioned way by trading a contract that is currently on injured reserve.
If the Oilers traded Klefbom now, it wouldn’t help this season – it would lower their cap but, at the same time, lower their LTIR reserves.
It would, of course, be a massive help for next season (presuming Klefbom doesn’t play) as getting out of the terrible limiting LTIR regime would be fantastic.
At the same time, this doesn’t help Vegas at all – sure, it gives them $4.1MM of extra LTIR room but they also would take Klefbom’s cap hit so its a net zero.
Acquiring LTIR contracts does NOT create cap space.
The type of trade that would help is if an LTIR team acquired, say, Ekblad to keep him on LTIR for the season and then activate him in the playoffs when there is no cap.
Right. The cap relief Vegas was looking forward was not from Kesler’s LTIR, it was from losing Dadonov’s cap hit for “nothing” in return. They would get the same relief if someone was willing to take Dadonov for a draft pick, pre trade deadline of course. Problem with that right now is not many with the cap space to do that, they need to send some salary back, in this case Kesler’s LTIR
We dont need his ltir. We have spent his ltir. If he retired it would change today’s spending limit. It affects the day 1 roster as we need to be cap compliant WITH his salary on board, before we can start using it.
I’ve mentioned before that I think Klefbom’s contract must be part of any package offered to Coyotes for Chycrun in the off season. It gives Coyotes help to the cap floor without paying if they need it, and allows us to fit in Chycrun. Then we only have to give up the desired picks/prospects they want vs trying to get them to also except deadweight veteran salary they actually have to pay
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
Hearing the #NHL is in the process of voiding the Evgeni Dadonov trade from #VGK to #NHLDucks.
Expecting official word to come today. It’s been a complicated, layered process with many parties involved.
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1506718986138013708?s=20&t=yvTOhht0GSuMXR_S8nqcew
Seems fair.
Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) Tweeted:
I’m terms of where the finger should be pointed in the Evgenii Dadonov case, league sources say the blame rests on the shoulders of the Ottawa Senators.
https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1506754515072172047?s=20&t=IYuiyYhBCPV4Ri_BOAvSZQ
No. The blame rests with Vegas for not being thorough, in both transactions.
He’s not Ottawa’s player … why should they care at all 1 year after the fact?
Of course the league would blame the Canadian team, instead of their new jewel in the desert.
Vegas should have known who was on his no trade list before they tried to trade him.
They thought they found a loophole and tried to dive through it at end of a busy day for the league hoping that nobody would notice.
I guess if you’re not cheating, then you’re not trying hard enough, right?
Can some here explain – what is going on with VGK and the Cap they are above $91M on Capfriendly.
They currently have $24 million in cap space out with injury.
They have $15MM on LTIR creating reserves to go over the cap. They couldn’t activate Stone or Martinez without shedding massive cap dollars.
Not moving out the Dadanov contract may prove fatal.
To be honest, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I think Martinez is ready and they “have to activate him” under the rules but don’t have the cap space.
The league should be sanctioning them draft picks for this.
Vegas can still make trades. The traded player is ineligible for the playoffs though. Time for non-playoff teams to go shopping at deep deep discounts from Vegas.
I expect this is what will happen.
So interesting, Vegas – the model of analytic brilliance their first few years, devolving into… this, a whale-hunting bloated mess.
They had a team full of journeyman players that were brilliantly Coached by Gallant. How he loses his job then the organization goes in a completely different direction is beyond me. I myself believe they have a few problem child’s that can really fuk them over a barrel if they want to.
They are not just ineligible for the playoffs. I believe they can’t play the rest of the regular season with the acquiring team. Not saying Vegas wouldn’t stoop so low. Their management seems to have little regard for any player they want to get rid of. And the trade is now void.
Devin Shore is up at 1.72 P/60 on the season and his goal share is now up to 47% (and, in the last 20 games, its 54% – 20 games being a random sample chosen for recency, and he’s 2.34 P/60 in those 20 games).
Derek Ryan is 34 or 35 and I don’t think the odd night off would hurt him – the right shot faceoff thing is real though.
Sure, but Derek Ryan has a 1.84 P/60 on the season and is up to a 46% goal share (and has a 65% goal share and a 3.27!! P/60 in his last 20 games) (#2 goal share and #1 P/60 on the team over the last 20).
Maybe he could use a night off (and they certainly have the bodies now), but he’s been awfully good. He certainly shouldn’t be coming out of the lineup on merit (though nice to see Shore contributing meaningfully as well).
Fair enough and good point on Ryan’s stats.
My only retort would be that I think a material portion of those numbers for Ryan were based off of that crazy 5 game heater where he scored all the goals and Shore has, not only been “hotter later” but a bit more consistent through the season.
With that said, your point is clear and valid. Its a tough choice and that’s a good thing, isn’t it?
Yes, a good thing for sure.
I’ve been reading post, comments, etc. over the last bit about Evander Kane not being a good defensive player. This may be true, but I don’t see it on the ice and, while FAR from determinative, Kane does lead the team in GA/60 at 1.72 in 340 or or so minutes. That’s with 32% of his TOI vs. elites and under 30% against the Grits.
I think this thought on Kane is often brought up in the Kane vs. Jesse discussion. I would note, Jesse is second on the team in GA/60 at 2.03.
Woodguy addressed this very question in depth in a recent Twitter thread.
It seems Kane is riding a massive PDO heater that does not jibe with his past performances.
Woodguy (@Woodguy55) Tweeted:
Kane vs JP thread:
Kane’s sample is tiny (~127 5v5 min with McDavid), but there is enough talk about keeping him so I had a look and make a thread.
First up: How McDavid has scored with all wingers he’s played over 100 min w/ since 19/20 (1/
https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1504889308758482946?s=20&t=KhMsxASP_qYWmo3YNfvzUQ
Worth noting…Kane’s ONSV% at 5V5 is .946 while the Oiler goaltenders are several magnitudes lower elsewhere.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8475169
Kane has never played with an truly elite centre before. Kane has never been as desparate to show well (he is playing for a contract). Kane is fresh, when most of the rest of the league is banged up.
Kane is an exceptional player without the puck. He doesn’t need touches. He knows where to go. He can skate. He is physical. He can pass pretty well. Since McDavid is somewhat of a puck hog, Kane is almost an ideal winger for him.
The somewhat of a puck hog (clearly you meant to be derogatory) who has 25% more assists over the last 5 season than the next closest player (2 thru 10 are all within 10% of each other so he really stands out). He is also 30th in the NHL in giveaways per 60 in that time period among forwards, which considering he probably has the puck on his stick more per 60 than any other NHL forward, is impressive. FWIW, Draisaitl is 8th in that time span for giveaways per 60.
Regarding hogginess…”Extremism in the name of liberty is no vice.” If a flaw leads to over-production, it is a feature, not a flaw.
Woodguy (@Woodguy55) Tweeted:
His actual GF% is usually less than his Expected GF%.
This year he’s 20% (!!) above his Expected GF%
Kane’s played with some talented C’s too. Couture, Pavelski, Eichel, O’Rielly, etc, so its not like this is his first chance with high end talent. (5/
https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1504889326949187587?s=20&t=YLGLKYYGJztsJHuGpns3cA
#signthemall
Might not be possible to sign all if no one wants a bridge or discount. We could trade JP or Yams for a kid still on a low-cost contract for another year, for example Kirby Dach.
PDO heaters can be real. Sometimes players earn PDO heaters with play – you know, find space in front and timing entry for high danger slot shots, like Kane has been firing. Good defensive play and leading to high save percentage.
I wonder if WG has done any individual assessment of Kane based on tape? I know Bruce and Dave put in that work.
A PDO like that is never sustainable…ever.
Are you also suggesting Kane is such an astute defensive player that he can raise a goalies save percentage by almost 50 points?
If that were true it would have happened repeatedly throughout his career and he would’ve won multiple Selke trophies.
As Woodguy pointed out (with evidence) Kane most often scores below his expected goal percentages while this season he is scoring well above it.
Its a PDO heater.
He’s tied in PDO with Matthew Tkachuk at 1.049. I agree that it is likely not sustainable.
The Flames have 3 players in the top 15 PDO in the league. Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk. When is the pony going to buck them off? Before or during the playoffs?
While I would expect regression…there are some very significant differences.
For example:
HDCF%
Kane 48.00
Tkachuk 60.69
HDGF%
Kane 65.00
Tkachuk 65.12
Tkachuk’s ONSV% of .943 is much closer to Markstrom’s save percentage than Kane’s .946 is to the performance of the Oilers goaltenders.
Also worth noting that Kane’s FF% is only 47.71 while Tkachuk’s is 59.30.
While Calgarys top line is running hot, most of it is deserved.
I agree and was thinking before those 2 GA at the end of last nights game what a great, well rounded player Kane is. Scoring, passing, defensively (seems to be in the right spots almost all the time) and obviously physical as well.
His 1.72 GA/60 is almost certainly not sustainable (likewise his 1049 PDO), but he’s been solid defensively for a number of years before this.
He did bleed GA earlier in his career, but in over the 4 seasons before this one his GA/60Rel was basically exactly even with his team, while having a positive GF/60 rel (and GF%Rel) every year.
I definitely don’t agree he’s a poor defensive player, whoever’s been claiming that.
That 3rd seed is still less than a coin flip for me considering strength of schedule. I had the Knights finishing 13-5 and two of those losses did happen; Wild and Jets. They have a coin toss at home vs the Preds next and if they win that…look out.
Hawks, Kraken, Kraken, Canucks, Canucks, Coyotes, Canucks.
They honestly should get 12+ points out of those 7 games.
Schedule maker needs to give his head a shake.
Reminds me of one of those PGA events where they play on two courses. Ya see 10 guys at -9 on Poppy Hills but know the one guy at -6 on Spyglass is really leading.
Not so fast …
The Coyotes have been playing well and the Canucks are nearly a 100-point pace under Boudreau.
The Knights will have done very well if they get 9 or 10 points.
This may well depend on whether or not Vegas can extricate itself from its LTIR quagmire.
Not looking good at the moment.
No practice for the Oilers today. CBA off day. Got in in the early hours of the am. They need it.
Ya, makes sense. Wish Kulak and Brassard could get a real practice in with the team today but that’s OK – overall rest is key.
You can put them through one of your High-Intensity Interval Training sessions😉
Good reminder, I should get some Tabata in – maybe by the pool here….
They actually checked into the hotel in Dallas after playing in Denver at 4am too.
Unsurprising they were not sharp last night.
Some PP ideas.
Unit 1:
Nuge – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Nurse – Barrie
Unit 2:
Kane – Drasiaitl – Yamamoto
Kulak/Keith – Bouchard
Split up McDrai, take advantage of teams 2nd PK units.Try different tactics, force them to adapt. If it works 5v5, it’ll work 5v4 too.
They should probably just put Nuge back on PP1, for a while at least.
The Oilers had the best PP in 40 years, over a 150 game span up until December 2021.
It’s been a long 40 games (and almost 4 months) of it struggling since then, but it was so good that it’s still outscoring all others in the league over 3 seasons by almost a goal/60 (10.11GF/60, 9.21GF/60 for StL in 2nd).
I totally don’t buy that after 150 games as a truly dominant PP, teams just ‘figured it out’ in unison (I think the players, individually and collectively, have just been ‘off’ for an extended period).
FWIW the Oilers PP since Dec. 1st has also been quite good by underlying metrics. It’s been top 6 in the league in shots/60, scoring chances/60 and HD chances/60, and it’s #1 in the league in xGoals for/60 over that period.
I think they should get the PP1 band back together and give them the chance to get back to being dominant like they were for so long. If things still aren’t rhyming after 4-5 games, then by all means shake things up, but I believe they deserve that chance (and obviously it would be a great thing for the Oilers to add a #1 PP to Woody’s top 5 even strength team).
I look at other playoff bound contenders and the Oilers have one of the weakest defense cores and goaltending tandems of those teams. I don’t think this bode’s well unless somehow they get lucky. Connor and Leon are great players, but neither have won much of anything when it really counts. I hope they can elevate in the post season and drag the rest of the team with them like Crosby and Malkin did years ago. It’s a lofty wish and a lot to overcome.
Yes we can hope but history shows us it is tougher to score in the playoffs as games get much more physical and ref’s are loath to call anything. Would love to see the Oil win at least a round.
You mean the Pens team in 2009 that also had future hall of famer Fleury, up and coming defenseman and future hall of famer, Letang, Perennial Norris vote getting defenseman Gonchar, grizzled veteran 900 point scoring Guerin along with a mix of other young and old players who had or continue to have long and very good careers? Or the 16/17 team that also had Kessel, Hornqvist, the up and coming Guentzal, and a defense core besides Letang, though maybe not spectacular, that will almost all have played close to 1000 games or more in their career by the time they retire.
Crosby and Malkin led those teams, but they had pretty solid supporting casts for all 3.
Nurse is being paid like a future Hall of Famer, we have Nuge as 3C, Kane,Hyman and some decent depth up front. Just lacking it in goal and defense. Maybe Skinner will come in and be good. (doesn’t have to be Fleury). Crosby and Malkin both were fantastic in those runs, a level our two superstars haven’t attained just yet:)
The last 2 cups the Pens won were with a dcore of Letang and……………. a whole lot of meh. There is a lot of similarities between those Pens teams and our current Oilers.
There goaltending was better though. One of our guys is going to have to go on a heater for the Oilers to have a chance.
Nurse can stay
Contract needs to go
Problem solved
Can they trade part of Nurse’s contract away and keep him? Now that would be innovative😉
Something only Lou could pull off!
Lol😄
Sorry if it’s been asked..What happens with Archie come playoffs? Does he just play the home games?
I love your optimism/pessimism? Did they sweep or get swept?
Depends who they play! If they play L.A. I’m optimistic, any other team I’m pessimistic;)
With Nuge back keeping things tidy – we will be doing the sweeping
I wonder if the NHL will ask for an exemption this summer. Airlines have finally taken away the restrictions here in the U.S. Masks are still required (loose restriction) until April 18th. I don’t think there was a good offer for Holland and if he can cross next season it’s worth keeping him probably. I like the player as well.
‘Merica!
Thanks All!
“dictator” ?
If the travel quarantine rules don’t change then yes.
The d-man swim move as described today worked great for Dallas on several situations.
For Nurse it was almost funny. He had little speed and sticky ice. He didn’t slide back, he just kind of stopped. Russel shaking his head at him. “Thats not what I taught you”
I didn’t see any Dallas defenders down prone on their bellies last night. Their D kept their feet moving and had active sticks – Haakanpaa was very noticeable for this last night.
The Swim Move (TM) was brought in by Tippett-Playfair last season and Oilers were doing it far more than any team in the league, indicating that they were being told to flop on the ice like goldfish.
Russell has been guilty of doing this for years but not to the extreme of where the D-man is completely flat on their belly. Nurse has been doing it all last season into this one.
It’s completely ineffectual and just looks really dumb. A 9.5 million dollar defenseman should be able to defend better than that.
How many two on ones did the Oilers have?
Sliding to prevent the pass has been taught for decades.
9.25
#kennysagrinder
Nurse has been going down on his belly all season on the PK.
This has been a season long problem.
It makes no sense to me why one of the best skating d-men in the league would ever leave his skates.
This nonsense was coached into him by the previous regime – Manson needs to use some major hypnosis to get him to stop doing it.
Are you sure it isn’t still being coached?
Condors’ d-men leave their feet as well at times.
Teams want to come out and hit the Oilers, and they do. But they also have dozens of infractions from sticks, holding, interference. Refs can’t call them all.
But refs will only call some, say 1 in 3.
Then the refs feel they have to even out the calls. There are times Oilers make it easy with trips or hooks, but other times the Refs have to go looking for calls. Out skates Kassian. Easy call coming up here. Once you establish a reputation the refs absolutely see things they do not see with other players.
He wants to add some physicality to the game but anything he does will have a high probability of being called as a penalty.
The penalty of Kassian last night was deserved though – it was a late hit, with Kassian coming from far across the ice to make the hit, leading with his hip. He could have and should have pulled up.
With Kassian, the bad is starting to outweigh the good. They should’ve tried to move him at the trade deadline. They may have to buy him out this off-season.
The Oilers should have won that last night. They are better than Dallas – period. I’m getting a little concerned they get flustered when the tension torques up. You could see it in the comical OT in Colorado. Then again last night. Not sure how you overcome that.
Good goaltending might help in that regard. No way Koskinnen is to blame for that loss, but he can’t be counted on to make the big save in the big moment.
Except last night he made several big saves in big moments.
Problem is, his team kept forcing him to. As usual that doesn’t end well and the goalie’s stat line looks like crap.
Watched the game late night on delay. Seems I saw a different game than most everyone else.
That was the worst game the Oilers have played since CHI. They didn’t deserve to be up by a goal in the 3rd and there was no way that lead was going to last.
That’s not because Koski or the D were playing like shit, but because the units on the ice were handing the puck away with no support or coverage resulting in odd man breaks and quick transitions left, right and center.
They abandoned Manwood and returned to The Old Ways. Played right into the Stars hands, who live off that type of game.
Now you can bitch and whine about who is at fault on any particular goal but really the problem was the way the whole team played throughout the game. And when that happens, law of averages says Dally gonna score on some of those glorious chances. Looked like goddamn January out there.
So the problem wasn’t so much the play of individuals on indivdual HDSCs but rather the fact they were handing out quality scoring opportunities like they were peanuts at a parade.
As uncharacteristic as it was, I’m going to put that down to fatigue, which we have seen turn the Oiler brains to mush before… against CHI and MTL.
It is still not good though. If I’m Woody, I would be very disappointed in last night’s effort.
That structure of puck support and back pressure and puck management is supposed to help them particularly in games like last night when the brains, hands and legs aren’t there. That’s supposed to be their fallback habit.
And it isn’t yet. Only 18 more games to drill it in. Godspeed, Jay and Dave.
Woodcroft impresses me as a competent NHL coach.
With something to prove.
Also, 18 games is like an entire NFL season.
Woodcroft Era
EDM Goal Diff 20 gp(12-4-2) (0.650 pts%)
EV (3v3,4v4,5v5)
97 w/o 29(17-13) 57%
29 w/o 97(15-3) 83%
97&29 On(6-1) 86%
93 w/o either(5-3) 63%
71(1-5) 17%
10(5-4) 56%
Other(2-5) 29%
Net EV +17
Special Teams 15-20=-5
Empty Net 8-4=+4
SO/PS 0-0
Goal Diff +16
Woodguy and I were marvelling at Drai’s heater without McDavid on twitter. 15-3 goals are you serious
A lot like the Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Yamamoto heater two years ago.
+16 out of 20 games is a decent to big improvement, right?
Keith-Bouchard played as much as Nurse-Ceci. Was there some fatigue in there from Nurse-Ceci? They’ve played a looooooooooooot of minutes the last few weeks.
Not mentioning Nurse specifically, Woody did bring up post-game that he though fatigue played a part in the “individual mistakes” that led to some goals against.
EDM Goal Diff 64 gp(35-24-5)
EV(5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29(40-33) 55%
29 w/o 97(39-27) 59%
97&29 On(20-12) 63%
93 w/o either(13-12) 52%
71(9-16) 36%
10(15-27) 36%
Other(6-12) 33%
Net EV +3
Special Teams 54-53
Net ST +1
Empty Net 18-12
Net EN +6
SO & PS 3-0 = +3
Goal Diff +13
Exactly. Stats dinosaur that I am: that +13 in 44 games of Tippett’s terrifying last season nails it, compared to Woodcroft and +16 out of 20.
+.8 vs +.3
Thank you for the stats.
Not sure if it showed up on all feeds but there was a moment where they showed woodcraft having a chat in Jesse’s ear. The next few shifts Jesse held onto the puck a little longer and took a couple shots instead of passing it off instantly. Although, later on as LT noted he did pass of on that glorious chance. He did look to the sky knowing it was a bad decision right after. I wonder if woodcraft reminded him he had skills to lug the puck up himself and that he also has a great shot.
Yes, he was more like whispering into Puli’s ear… A good coach with a private moment of teaching….Woody really knows how to handle his players during the games.
Exactly! I’m thinking we will see a Jessa who will hold the puck a bit longer and take a few more shots from here on out
Nurse has fallen in love with that swim move – started doing it last year (was probably coached to do ir, cause a bunch of our D were doing that last year), and is still resorting to it this year. On that forth goal, he literally dives to ice so hard that instead of sliding backwards, he stalls in place and becomes a pylon.
This needs to be coached out of him – he’s a far more effective D-man when he keeps his feet moving. He can be so much better, but a lot of the habits from Tippett/Playfair are still ingrained.
Far better off to try to keep moving and use his reach
You never know what the other player will do and may get into range
It’s also much easier, one would think, to snag a rebound on your feet than snogging the
I said yesterday that Evander Kane is the 3rd best FORWARD on the team.
To be clear, Darnell Nurse is the 3rd best PLAYER on the team.
Semantics lol
I have Nuge ahead of Kane.
Malone/McLeod/Kass – 0% everything.
Can we just replace those three with Nuge, Brassard and Archie?
Just kidding kind of but, its kind of true. Of course, McLeod isn’t coming out (he better not be).
Malone is gone – there is 1.
For me, after last night, Kass should see the press box – he only got a shift or two after his bad penalty. Will Woody sit the veteran? I hope so.
Ryan vs. Shore for the next guy out I guess. One can say Archie should stay out but I think they want to keep getting him up to speed and will play. Shore is the “easy” choice but, for the most part, he’s been playing well at evens and producing, producing at high rates.
Thoughts on the following for tomorrow:
Kane/McDavid/Yamamoto
McLeod/Drai/Puljujarvi
Hyman/Nuge/Foegele
Brassard/Shore/Archie
Nurse/Ceci
Keith/Bouchad
Kulak/Barrie
Smith
I’m not so sure about that Keith & Bouchard pair . They might be better off with Niemelinen & Broberg . Who knows ?
Niemelainen? He was struggling big time in his last few weeks before his re-assignment – directly responsible on goals against for, I believe, 4 games in a row. With respect, he’s behind Keith, Kulak, Russell, Broberg on the left side and, I should note, Samorukov has been the Condors’ best d-man over the last few weeks.
I don’t think Derek Ryan comes out.
Has to be Shore. Granted, he has not been playing bad.
Switch Hyman and Foegele. Malone replaces Shore. Fixed!
Malone is leaking goals against to a tune of 4.36 GA/60 and is now in the AHL until they go back on the road.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kulak with Bouch to start 3rd pair as Kulak acclimates, Bouch settling down with a better skating and more stable partner that compliments his style, and them becoming the second pair over time through merit.
At all.
When thinking of call-ups for the rest of the season, don’t forget, now that we are past the trade deadline, teams are allowed a max of 4 call-ups (non-emergency).
I’m not 100% up to speed on emergency vs. normal (it seems somewhat arbitrary at times) but I presume that, when the go on the road and “suspend Archie” and replace him with, for now, Malone, that’s an “emergency” call-up but I’m not positive on that.
Once Nuge is back they’ll have 14F with Archibald. There will still be 13F even when Archibald isn’t available.
So there’s zero need for a Malone call-up unless the team is playing on the road AND 2 forwards get injured.
This is true although, despite his 4.36 GA/60, I could see the coaches liking Malone in to replace Archie – skill set wise (i.e. aggressive, PK, etc.).
Sure, but there is definitely no *need* currently to be using the 4 available call-ups to ice a full lineup.
The Oilers PP seems slow moving the puck – that’s wild to me but I think its the case.
McDavid, when he gets the puck at the left point or half wall, will move with the puck and its dymanic but, other than that, they seem slow – Drai is VERY slow moving the puck on the PP these days, Barrie is quicker than Bouch at the point but isn’t moving it fast these days – those are the guys with the puck on their sticks.
Drai is REALLY struggling to my eye on the PP – gets the puck and stands still with it and takes his time to move it. Now he’s added stationaary shots from the left half wall – some on net and some looking for a net front play I think but, for me, that’s a low percentage play with full control on the PP.
I know the PP has had its struggles with Nuge in the linueup as well but, hot damn, I’m looking forward to having him back. I just hope his shoulder is 100%. Remember, when Hyman came back from his shoulder, he struggled hard for a few games and took advantage of the league shut down for some extra recovery.
Teams have really figured out ( for the most part) the cross ice pass to Drai.
They will need to come up with a new tactic/s -even when Nuge comes back.
I think we see that with the hard passes to Yamamoto in the crease on the PP. They are looking for alternative plays now at least.
Teams adapt real fast
They could just watch film of the Avs PP bcs that is exactly what they should be doing
I think bcs of the talent they are having them freelance a lot of it
Which is great, but creatives get blocks, and they have one
They are really smart players. I would have say 3 strategies, designed to defeat particular PK strategies
Then let the talent and creativity role. Essentially they are thinking too much and playing slow bcs of it
Used to happen 5v5 when players weren’t sure where to be. Now that that they have a better idea they are much better, and it lets them play faster and use the talent more
At this point of the regular season its about the playoffs.
The last 2 games are okay for the present. The players like Keith are saving for the playoffs no need to get banged up for a veteran thats not the way it goes lol
So if they don’t make the playoffs, they’ll be super fresh to hit the golf course in Kelowna?
Oilers are well in place to make the playoffs, possibly 2nd in the Pacific?
Asking for a friend.
*Shakes Magic 8-ball*
The Oilers are 3 points up with 2 games in hand on Vegas for 3rd place in the Pacific.
Its a nice spot and bit of a cushion but its FAR from insurmountable.
I don’t believe for a second that Keith is “saving his energy” for the playoffs right now.
Win win?
For me, the first goal was a bit lucky but “saveable” – not a “bad goal” but you would hope your tender would make.
The second goal was bad on Mikko – I think that shot was going high and wide and the wild blocker stab knocked it right down to an all-alone Joe P.
Don’t get me wrong, there were other mitakes by the skaters, that’s for sure, but the first two goal didn’t have to happen due to the tender.
With that said, it the 20 minutes or so of play after those two goals, Mikko was fantastic and made some huge saves, gave his team a chance to tie it up and take the lead.
Then the top pairing happened – Nurse/Ceci – whoooof – whoooff…….
They can, and will, be better.
First one deflected off the shaft of Nurse’s stick & found a hole. Second one was bad.
Yes, as I said, first one was lucky and it wasn’t a “bad goal” – at the same time, you hope your goalie can make that save – goalies save deflected pucks all the time (and I fully acknowledge Yamo scored on a tip).
Hey Bruce
Have you ever seen a team deflect as many pucks into their own net?
I am not recalling so many. I fear it’s like ‘the swim’ or ‘snogging the ice’ as I called it above, somewhat coached at some point
Getting sticks in yes, but too far out and too late, let the goalie do his job more easily, and if he can’t the GM is up to plate
A 78 miles per hour shot (speed per ESPN broadcast), quickly fired after a cross ice pass from about 20 feet and deflected halfway to the net. The only time goalies make that save is if it hits them somewhere. If its not deflected, he probably stops it.
The blocker by Mikko on the second goal was off a shot fired past a 2 person screen (Russell/Pavelski). Russell often blocks those. Mikko’s save was reactionary due to picking up the shot later. That’s why teams screen goalies. Cult of Hockey by their count had Dallas with 9 – 5 alarm chances and 14 grade A chances.
Yes, Mikko made lots of great saves last night – I posted it during the game and in this thread. I didn’t say he had a bad game nor he cost the team the win – I was just speaking to how I saw the two goals. Your last sentence seems to infer some other meaning from my post.
I stand by my points – goalies make positional saves on tips all the time. As I said, that wasn’t a “bad goal on Mikko” but goalies do often make that save and Mikko can and does make that save at times.
The shot on the second goal was going high and wide – Mikko turned it in to a scoring chance and a goal on his own.
On the second goal that shot, if was going to miss it was just barely, it was at cross bar height at most and maybe a inch or too wide. And again, he is reacting late because of the screen so he did not see the whole shot trajectory so with it that close not only does he not have time to decide it could be wide, he had very little time to move his blocker at all. Job one stop the shot. An improvement – direct the rebound if you can. If goalie can’t do job 2, the defense are also supposed to help. Every goalie in the league stops shots that may not have been on net in almost every game. Oh and for what its worth, the NHL official scorer credited Klingberg with a shot on goal that play (and Mikko with a save) and they generally don’t do that if the goalie stops a shot that is obviously going wide.
And on the deflection, do you know for sure based on all the circumstances leading to the shot, that Koskinen was not in the right position? Goalies even in the right position can’t cover every opening, so sometimes a lucky deflection gets through.
I am not saying he deserves and A for those 2 efforts, but I don’t believe either of those 2 play were a D or an F.
Fine, a C and a D- on the two.
Kassian got lost up ice on the first goal making a pointless hit. If Kassian comes off the bench aware of what is happening on the ice, and doesn’t go looking for a hit, there is no goal against.
Kassian was near the end of the shift when that happened…. you seem to be making up facts for your narrative.
I think Kass should be healthy scratched for Thursday but making a dozen posts re: Kass’ culpability on the first goal (with made up info and massive stretching) seems unhealthy.
His mistake was even worse if it was near the end of the shift, and not the beginning. Dallas forwards had already gone for the long change. Kassian delaying his change would mean whoever was coming on for him would be completely out of position to defend against the Dallas forwards, and leave the Oilers D outnumbered. Which was what happened. Woodcroft’s philosophy is to be diligent tracking back. Kassian role on the play then should have been to track back, or get off the ice.
Whatever he was doing, he was clearly NOT playing within Woodcroft’s system.
Like the critical mistake Kassian made in the playoffs last year when he went for the O-zone hit instead of tracking Jets forwards back to the D-zone. Going for a hit at the end of a shift is just stupid. It means the forward coming on is way out of the play.
Arguably it was the play that KILLED any realistic chance of the Oilers mounting a comeback in the series.
The ONLY good place for Kassian is the press box. Bad outcomes are sure to unfold if Woodcroft keeps playing him, not that he definitely has the depth to not play him.
He has barely played the last two games; his contribution either way has been minimal.
Your initial position, posted probably close to a dozen times, was that Kassian came off the bench and either didn’t know, of disregarded his defensive assignment to make a hit and this was due to not being engaged on the bench.
Now, when shown facts that the the play at hand did not take place like that, you alter your analysis.
I thought Kassian had a terrible game last night but I don’t think Kassian was primarily culpable on the first goal and didn’t cost us the game on that play and, frankly, given the above and you history analyzing plays, its impossible to really have a discussion with you when it relates at all to Kassian (or Barrie).
Keith has looked really rough of late. Either it’s late season fatigue or the wheels are coming off for good. Holland’s bets on Smith and Keith are not aging well. Let’s hope these vets find their reserves for the stretch drive.
Yep. Some regularity of some horrific passes creeping into his game.
A little slack for a little rough play perhaps? Keith still leads the D corps in 5v5 goal differential.
No surprise – Archie back on the roster and Brad Malone assigned to the Condors.
I think Archie should have a very short leash. To me he has not done a lot to deserve a spot vs Malone. He needs to be better. If play and effectiveness are equal, you gotta go with Malone.
Of note, small sample size of 8 games but Brad Malone is getting scored on at the highest rate on the team at 4.36 GA/60 (Archie, middle of the pack at 2.42).
Tough loss last night . It seems they thought the game was already in the books after the
3-2 goal , either that or fatigue had set in . Regardless , the game isn’t over until it’s over , suck it up boys , it’s a lesson already learned . Enough on that .
The reinforcements have arrived and the Nuge is back . It’s fun to see where the pieces fit .
IMO Ryan MacLeod is wasted on the fourth line . He needs to play in the top nine , no doubt about it . With the addition of Brassard they now have three guys that play C/LW
( Shore , Malone & Brassard ) and two RW’s ( Kassian & Archibald ) Woodie should be able to sort out a useful fourth line with those wagon wheels .. OH MY GOD !! I forgot Foegele too .
With Nuge returning expectantly to the 3c role he’s going to need some help in Zack Hyman along with Derek Ryan on the RW , Ryan MacLeod looked very good as Leon’s LW with Jesse on the RW . The top Line remains unchanged . With those four lines ice time can be more balanced .
The defense is more puzzling , it’s good that Kulak can play both sides . I won’t venture even a guess as to where he lines up . I just hope the pieces fit and that Kosky & Smiddy are up to the task with Skinner slotting in as required .
Tough loss last night . It seems they thought the game was already in the books after the
3-2 goal , either that or fatigue had set in . Regardless , the game isn’t over until it’s over , suck it up boys , it’s a lesson already learned . Enough on that .
The reinforcements have arrived and the Nuge is back . It’s fun to see where the pieces fit .
IMO Ryan MacLeod is wasted on the fourth line . He needs to play in the top nine , no doubt about it . With the addition of Brassard they now have three guys that play C/LW
( Shore , Malone & Brassard ) and two RW’s ( Kassian & Archibald ) Woodie should be able to sort out a useful fourth line with those wagon wheels ..OH MY GOD !! With Nuge returning expectantly to the 3c role he’s going to need some help in Zack Hyman along with Derek Ryan on the RW , Ryan MacLeod looked very good as Leon’s LW with Jesse on the RW . The top Line remains unchanged . With those four lines ice time can be more balanced .
The defense is more puzzling , it’s good that Kulak can play both sides . I won’t venture even a guess as to where he lines up . I just hope the pieces fit and that Kosky & Smiddy are up to the task with Skinner slotting in as required .
McLeod certainly needs to play more and with higher skill line mates.
McLeod was beginning to emerge as a Top 6 forward until Woodcroft demoted him in favour of the Royal Order of Water Buffalos. Meritocracy?
Once RNH returns, my hope is the HC rights that wrong by dropping JP to the 3rd line alongside Nuge and elevates McLeod to the 2L with Draisaitl and Hyman. We always talk about what a cerebral player RNH is. Maybe he can figure out where the hell Jesse is going to be. Seriously, have you ever seen a professional hockey player throw his linemates offside more than Jesse?
Puljujarvi is a disappointing lottery pick. Not a ‘driver’ which you’re expecting at that point in the draft and not a complimentary player as his positioning is far too unpredictable and his production far too inconsistent. I’m sure he’s a helluva bandy player though.
I think Jesse, like Yakupov, makes strange movements in the OZ. I agree with you, for a guy who was the World Junior MVP in his year, he doesn’t seem to have the offensive IQ you’d hope for.
But his compete level is high, and he’s a shit disturber in a good way, and one of the better defensive wingers on the team.
People are talking about bridging Puljujarvi being a mistake, but I don’t see it – when Nurse was bridged, we knew what he was, and he was doing it consistently.
Jesse is still all over the place – what would you pay him for a long-term contract?
His agent would never have him sign one… because he doesn’t know either.
He’s 5 years post draft and we’re still talking about him like a ‘project’ pick.
Patience. Patience. Patience. He’ll figure it out eventually.
At this point, his ceiling is a dogged checker with size that can chip in occasionally with a goal. Gift him Top 6 minutes and you’re pissing away production.
Is Jesse willing to reinvent himself as a Bottom 6 guy? Does he have the puck sense to protect a lead with 2 minutes to go?
I have my doubts, so personally I would cut bait and trade him. He’s got all the tools and no clue how to use them. It’s a shame but the Finnish GM passing on him was a clear red flag.
Too bad Chiarelli didn’t see it as well. Could’ve had Tkachuk. At least we got Leon over Bennett. Two more examples of BPA being wrong.
Or you could say BPA is a fluid thing depending on draft year
It seems it is usually 1-3 as clear, some years 1-5
Neither Laine or Jesse have knocked it out, even if Laine is a strong scorer. At their sizes one would think dominant players after a bit
JP is still a fine young player.
With potential to spare.
Im seeing similar things, but don’t feel disappointment.
Jessie is just not a typical NA player, he has a different style. He needs more coaching to become more predictable in his position and he needs line mates to adapt. Hopefully they meet in the middle.
Im not worried that he won’t come around, but I do think he can be moved around the line up to gain advantage.
JP was looking phenomenal before the injury, tough crowd.
JP and Keith. Kassian and soon RNH. As if getting injured to the point of missing games is cured “just like that” every time upon return to the ice.
That’s exactly the lineup I would go with when the Oilers are fully healthy.
Kane McDavid Yam
McLeod Draisaitl Hyman
Brassard Nuge JP
Foegele Shore Ryan
That makes last nights 3rd line the 4th line. I’m not sure that they sit Kassian though. It would be a bold move by the coach.
My biggest fear is that McLeod ends up in the pressbox. He’s too good for that.
Foegele Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan were exceptional before the injury. It would be a mistake not to go back to it.
Hyman Draisaitl and Puljujarvi is a load for the opposition to handle. A true heavy line.
The Oilers should be able to have a strong 4th line out of McLeod, Brassard, Shore/Archibald.
I have no issue moving McLeod to Draisaitl’s line and Puljujarvi down, but Puljujarvi’s results with Draisaitl have been excellent.
On ice results removing McDavid minutes:
Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
166 min
52% shots
65% goals
56% xGoals
Now, McLeod’s results in a smaller sample are even better:
Draisaitl-McLeod
87 min
60% shots
78% goals (7-2)
57% xGoals
So as I said, getting McLeod back there makes sense.
But there has been zero issue with the Draisaitl-Puljujarvi pairing in terms of results, and maybe McLeod-Puljujarvi can actually even be a decent winger pair for Draisaitl, leaving Hyman for Nuge.
Hernan Leaving? Boooooo Urns.
Who’s gonna spin the wax with the flair of Hernan?
Good timing Hernan. The Elks are on the move.
Best of Luck.
With a name like Hernan Salas, his signature move should be a Fedora and a Lollypop
#Kojak
How many Hernan’s have you mentored through all your years LT?
#SourceOfPride
Can’t wait to see RNH at 3C and McLeod middle 6 LW
Darnell Nurse $9.25 Mil per.
Makar $9 Mil per
Hieskanen $8.45 Mil per
Etc
Etc
I feel Darnell is going to have a hard time living up to the contract. Not his fault – just a statement
Maybe year 7 and 8 😉
IF it helps (and it should) remember that Nurse is on a team friendly two year contract at $5.6m. Making his ten yr avg (with the new contract) $8.5m
If that doesn’t float your boat, keep in mind that in his first 5 yrs in the organization 2013-14 to 2017-18 he earned a TOTAL of $4.4M.
I would not be surprised if Holland approached Nurse two yrs ago and asked him for a team friendly deal due to severe cap restraints, with a promise to make it up to him on his next contract.
Those are Makar’s and Heiskanen’s 2nd contracts. It is Nurse’s 4th. The Oilers passed twice at signing Nurse long term. Nurse was content to bet on himself and let the clock run to UFA status, and the clock run until the the market repriced up for defensemen.
I think return of Nuge is going to help PP1 significantly.
Kailer! Kailer! Kailer!
I could not believe the battles he fought against Nathan MacKinnon the other night.
If he can play that way (or close to) for the rest of the season and through the playoffs, while staying healthy, he becomes a $5m man. (well 4 to 4.5m…. plus the Holland surcharge…. 🙂 )
Kind of seemed like one of those games we were more or less destined to lose. What did we hit, 2 or 3 posts as well?
I think it did sort of show the importance of adding a guy like Kulak into the mix. Nurse and Ceci have been relatively excellent as of late, but I think their head scratching plays down the stretch were maybe a result of fatigue. They are being played a lot and against the best competition, with the other 4 generally getting an easier slate of things.
If Kulak can come in and help contribute to a pairing that could eat away at some of those minutes in a meaningful way, I think that will be crucial to keeping Nurse and Ceci at the top of their game. Especially come playoff time.
Agreed adding Kulak at 2 LD should make a difference. Moves Keith to 3D with less minutes. Still think playing Bouch and Barrie at RD is a problem. Ideally you move Barrie out for a stronger defensively RD. Our forward group is bloody good! Goaltending remains sketchy……..
I agree as well. The team must address the redundancy of Barrie and Bouchard on RD. Probably makes sense to trade Barrie in offseason, acquire a quieter, cheaper, more defensively sound RD, and then let Bouchard take over PP1.
Not sure how much cap we will have, but Holland (or whoever the next GM is if he is somehow fired) needs to make starting goaltender a priority. Carter Hart remains my target and I think Philly would be silly enough to do it.
The OIlers were not destined to lose that game. They were in control with the lead and controlling his play when Kassian made a mental error coming off the bench which led to the first goal against, and let Dallas into the game.
Stock are off today. Kassian’s investing must be shaking confidence in the market. City streets weren’t properly shoveled after the last snow storm. Kassian must have put flats in several of the plows. Kassian is on the ice for a goal against. It must be his fault almost exclusively everytime (unless Barrie is on the ice with them, and they both are 100% at fault every time).
You have no clue what Kassian’s responsibility is in that circumstance under Woodcroft’s philosophy. He came into forecheck with the puck was in the corner and then he hit the puck carrier as he finished his check on the puck carrier who had eluded Malone That goal happens in large part due to a lucky break with the line change for Dallas with the one player going off at the center ice line while the puck went by and Benn jumping on behind Russell at the blue line catching him by surprise.
Oh and for the record, he did not come off the bench, he’d been on for about 40-45 seconds at that point in his shift, so you are not even getting the facts right.
It’s easier to hold a lead late in a game when your a defensive first team with elite goaltending.
We are not that. We are not going to become that in the next 18 games.
What should Woody do?
Continue doing what he’s doing? The record speaks for itself. Kulak should help stabilise the blue a little, and Nuge back from injury is going to be a Gordsend.
Powerplay is my biggest bug bear now, it would be nice if that was to start clicking again.
I would posit that the PK is the bigger bug bear now.
The PP is an issue, for sure, it could have put the game away last night with the opportunity up 3-2.
For me, the PK is a bigger issue as its losing them games!
I thought the PK took some decent steps in the past little bit. The Colorado game they played very well, but had some unlucky bounces on the goals against. There was a lot of bend but don’t break play going on.
Last night I can’t say the Oilers were good in any phase of the game, dog tired players are going to do that though.
If had been possible to pull a few guys out and insert Kulak/Stafford/Nuge last night I feel like it’s a different game.
The Oilers have the 4th best record in the NHL when leading going into the 3rd this season and 5th best record over the past 3 seasons. Now last night’s game wasn’t that since they went into the 3rd trailing and after regaining the lead they lost in the second, didn’t switch well enough to low risk mode for the remainder of the 3rd.
As Woodcroft said in his postgame, individual mistakes will happen, but if everyone else on the ice is playing within the structure, you are more likely able to overcome them especially when the originating mistake occurs outside your blue line.
Avs seem like a very good NHL team but there is a Canuck vibe about them.
No way are they as good as their current regular season record indicates.