2021-22 Game 65: Sharks at Oilers

The Oilers followed up the brilliant home stand (5-0-0) with two solid road games but little to show for lots of hard work (0-1-1). The San Jose Sharks are in town, 4-4-2 in the last 10, and the Oilers badly need to stay away from losing streaks of any length. A win tonight for the home team is a must.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
• Lowetide: Oilers’ 2022 draft strategy takes shape after trade deadline
• DNB: Oilers’ solid deadline adds depth but without goaltending upgrade, top concern remains
• Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
• Lowetide: 9 Oilers prospects who could be available in trade at the deadline
• Lowetide: Is Oilers winger Warren Foegele doing enough to warrant his contract?
• DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
• Lowetide: Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci emerging as top pair for Oilers
• Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s case for a spot on Oilers’ skill lines
• DNB: Oilers’ recent play only underscores that upcoming trade deadline must be a time to act
• Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
• DNB: Markus Niemelainen collecting catchy nicknames as his surprise breakout accelerates
• Lowetide: Oilers fans still adjusting to Ken Holland’s management style
• DNB: Ken Holland Q&A
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

• On the road to: PHI, CHI (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
• At home to: MON (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• At home to: WAS, TBAY, DET, BUF, NJD (Expected 3-1-1) (Actual 5-0-0)
• On the road to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
• At home to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: ARI, LAK (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points from 15 games
• Actual March results: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
• Oilers in 2021-22: 35-24-5, 75 points in 64 games

My prediction at the end of the month had the Oilers finishing up the month of March 2-2-0, and that would put them 37-26-5, 79 points in 68 games. I think Edmonton makes the playoffs if they can run just a little over a point-per-game from now through the end of the year. I believe 18 points in 15 March games is the kind of success rate required. Anything more is gold. Vegas could recover in a quick hurry and the Canucks got a huge win last night, so it’s vital for Edmonton to collect points over the final four games of the month. 80 points on April 1 is a fine goal.

BAKERSFIELD UPDATE

The Condors won last night, Stuart Skinner was outstanding. Skinner stopped 35 of 37 (.946) and in his last five games with Bakersfield he owns a .944 SP and a 4-1 record. Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie are playing less (Benson, Malone, Sceviour) since some of the veterans came back from Edmonton. I imagine it’s a short term thing to secure a playoff spot. The young blue (Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen) are playing a lot, and Mike Kesselring specifically looked good to my eye last night. There’s talent down there, wonder if we see one of the kids recalled to the NHL over the coming weeks.

RUMOURS

It’s the time (uh!) of the season where rumours from all over hit the Oilers fan base. I got a dm about Andrei Kuzmenko yesterday, and he would be a helluva get. Last I read, the Vancouver Canucks were a strong option, not certain what the Edmonton connection would be, but he would be a strong scoring winger and a substantial replacement for Evander Kane. He shoots right, plays left, scored 20 goals in 45 KHL games this season and is 26.

DARNELL NURSE

Plenty of talk about Darnell Nurse over the last day or so, I want to pass along his numbers with or without Connor McDavid. This is five-on-five, via Puck IQ, and versus elites.

Nurse’s cap hit is $5.6 million and his new contract has a cap hit of $9.25 million. If the Oilers had signed him to an eight-year deal in 2018 summer, his cap would be about $6.8 million. However, the Oilers bought all the RFA years without placing some of them next to four UFA years and now the number is a monster. If you’re blaming Nurse, I would suggest taking a long look at the group that could have signed him in 2018 and included both bridge deals and four UFA seasons. Edmonton made their decision, Nurse and his representation negotiated in good faith. For the life of me I don’t understand blaming the player.

How does this end? Here’s something I wrote about Shawn Horcoff, with the title “The Price You Pay” during a Bruce Springsteen reasonable expectations:

1. Why this song? As with all of the players we’re talking about, Springsteen has about 20 songs that could work. I thought of ‘Stolen Car’ because the hero of the song is trapped, or The River or Fade Away–pretty much the entire River album applies. The Price You Pay is about making decisions, paying for them–good and bad–and not really thinking about how many decisions you make in youth that have massive implications as you grow older. It’s true for all of us, and I’m not suggesting Horcoff would have turned down the money or left via free agency–but those decisions come at a price and you pay for it. The marker comes due, for millionaires and normal men.
2. He’s an excellent captain. I think so, also think he’ll step down over the summer.
3. WHAT? I think this is the summer Edmonton makes the shift, they’ll move one of Hall or Eberle into that role. Maybe they wait another year but this seems like the time to make the change and turn north.
4. What will his role be next season? More of the same. Mentor the next group: Paajarvi, Hartikainen, probably Rajala, Pitlick. Since 2010 fall, pretty much every forward has been helped along by Horcoff in one way or another. I think he’s been a leader in this way.
5. Why isn’t Horcoff a popular player? I think it’s the money. Last year, it was “all that money for -23” and this year it’s about the offense. I know why salaries are public and don’t want to go back, but it does make players a target when this sort of thing happens.
6. How will he be remembered? Depends on your point of view. Some will remember the contract, the feet of clay and the missed opportunities goalmouth. Some will remember the blocked shot (with his face) in Detroit, answering the bell even on those nights when all was lost during the anthem, and the fact that he was the best “dirty work” option on the team for a long time.
7. You always liked him. From the first time I saw him mark his man, gain position and ride him out of the play as a perfect pass zipped through the slot, fall 2000 TC. I’ll be writing a ‘Sail on, Trail Smoke Eater’ sooner than later, but I’ve enjoyed watching Shawn Horcoff play hockey. Very much.
8. It’s been a tough climb for him since the Oilers traded Pronger. It’s the price you pay.

I published that item May 10, 2013. He was dealt July 5, same year. So rock on with your rage, and for goodness sakes get in your licks, people have to know how much you know. Maybe some day, when you’ve seen this 10 or 100 times, it’ll click in that Darnell Nurse is the best possible option on the roster, so good the team pushes him out against elites more often than they should. Maybe that day will hit you during what is likely to be several years of rage tweets and posts, and maybe it won’t happen at all. I’ve long since given up on these men getting a fair shake. People see the cap hit and see red. Human nature. Doesn’t make it right, or even smart.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show, starts at 10, TSN 1260. We’ll cover the Vegas deal no deal with Chris Johnston, TSN Insider at 10:20, also checking in on things the Oilers might have been looking at over the final hours of the trade deadline. Matthew Iwanyk will tee up World Cup qualifying, a big match for the Canadian men this evening. We’ll also have Crossfire! (pew! pew!) and look at NCAA hoops. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. A huge day in sports!