Since Jay Woodcroft arrived in Edmonton in time for the February 11 game and the club is 19-8-3. What’s more, the losses are (mostly) versus teams expected to be trouble. As Wednesday dawns in the land of the ice and snow, the Oilers hold a two-point lead and a game in hand on the Los Angeles Kings and a five-point lead on Vegas Golden Knights. It’s a good spot to be in, but this isn’t over. Eight games to go, wins are needed.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s deployment is working, despite play in Wild loss
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s scoring prowess and what he brings the Oilers
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s Hart case
- Lowetide: Oilers signing Noah Philp latest connection with Golden Bears
- DNB: Dylan Holloway call-up? Jay Woodcroft extension? Zack Kassian trade? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
- Lowetide: Finding Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ wingers elusive challenge for Oilers
- DNB: Oilers player poll
- Lowetide: Making the final call on the Oilers 2017 draft
- Lowetide: How many more college players will Oilers sign this spring?
- Lowetide: Strong March puts Oilers in position for top-3 finish in Pacific Division
- DNB: Connor McDavid at 100 points
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers free-agent targets for 2022 offseason
- Lowetide: Are Oilers approaching a crossroads with Zack Kassian?
- DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
- Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
- DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL
- At home to: STL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: VEG, DAL, COL (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CBJ, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, VAN (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual April results: 4-1-1, 9 points in 6 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 42-26-6, 90 points in 74 games
I had last night as a loss, and have Edmonton going 5-3-0 from here. That lands as 47-9-6, 100 points. I’m not going to do the usual for last night’s game, there’s only so many ways to say “they turned over the puck in terrible spots many times” without repeating yourself. Event summary is here, and the NST totals are here.
WHAT’S HAPPENING
There is a six-game corridor through April that we all knew would be tough. So tough in fact I projected Edmonton to post a 2-4-0 record. The team did a fine job flattening the competition in the first four games of the month and for me the Colorado OT loss was among the best games of the Oilers season. Now 0-1-1 in that six-game window, with Nashville now the most important game of the month. The key for Edmonton? Don’t go on a losing streak. The team is in good position, need to crank out some wins.
Los Angeles plays Colorado tonight, and on Thursday it’s Edmonton versus Nashville and Vegas plays Calgary.
THE NEXT EIGHT GAMES
The first question one would ask about the Oilers is how can they play so well in one game and so poorly in another? I think the answer comes in execution. If you listened to Jay Woodcroft’s post-game avail last night, there’s plenty of talk about breakouts, and that can send this team sideways. Big wingers who can pressure the defense often force the Oilers blue to give up pucks early.
The first goal against last night everyone played it right until the puck reached Duncan Keith’s stick. Bouchard got in the way of his man up by the blue line, Nuge offered a welcome option for Keith. The veteran blue made a stunningly bad pass, leading directly to a goal. Keith has played well this season, that was easily his worst game.
The second goal came because Evan Bouchard made a bad decision. The play he should have made is moving the puck behind the net to safety and partner Keith. Instead, he turned the corner and tried to move past the forechecker (Kevin Fiala) who overtook him and the puck became a 50-50. Nuge was there but couldn’t get the puck out, and bam it’s 2-0.
The third goal once again involved two forecheckers. Keith sends a quick pass to Bouchard from behind the net, it’s a grenade because a Wild forward is on him like a stoat. Bouchard does well just to move it along the wall, but the Wild player has inserted himself ahead of Jesse Puljujarvi and gets a bad angle ripper that goes in. Ryan Hartman’s second goal.
What does a coach do? I wrote about Bouchard for The Athletic this morning, numbers show Manson is having a major impact in a good way (please read it, there’s some good stuff in there). As for Keith, he just cannot make that play, he could have moved it behind the net or taken the hit from the forechecker and waited for help. He needs to be the calm veteran and that play was just so poor. Keith has had a good season, credit where due. That play can’t happen.
Should you worry? I think the playoffs are basically secure, but will tell you that the roster is a big issue. I was absolutely lit on fire for suggesting changing coaches wouldn’t have much of an impact (I am happy to be wrong by the way) because of the roster. So if Woodcroft-Manson can improve a flawed roster this much, what could they do with a roster that had balance and no weak spots? What does that mean? A summer devoted to finding a goalie, shoring up defence and signing RFA’s Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod. I don’t know that you’ll get it, but grow your own worked for Ken Holland in Detroit and it can work here. Chasing free agency can work, but money will be too tight to mention this summer. I sense, based on what is being rolled out by the connected media, this summer will see some painful and unnecessary departures.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy and fun morning on the Lowdown. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join me at 10:20 to look back at last night and ahead to the Thursday and Saturday games. We’ll also chat with Joe Osborne from Odds Shark about the NBA play-ins and the Raptors chances. We’ll have “Answer me these questions three” and don’t forget tomorrow Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will join us to talk about Carter Savoie and the draft. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
This is embarrassing for LA
No playoff teams for the 6 games left after this vivisection.
I think talk about contract numbers prior to playoff performance is premature, but I will be surprised if some team offers Kane $30million+.
I think the teams that would be willing to sign Kane, would still be leery of term and clauses like NMCs. I think he’s more likely to get a 2 x 8 number than a 5 x something. And I don’t see 2 x 8 as all that likely. 2 x 6.5 maybe.
Kane has his priorities and I imagine his kid will play a role in his decision. I think a Stanley is important to him too. His dad still plays a big role in his life. Thus, I think Philly, is EXTREMELY unlikely considering it is the closest hockey market to Atlantic City. Vegas unlikely too, obviously.
Now playoffs and other signings and off-ice behaviours and a whole host of things can change the equation between now and then.
But if Holland is willing to give term, and Kane actually wants to play here, I think an agreeable deal can be made.
Seattle, maybe?
God knows they have cap space and that Kane wants to get paaaaaiiiid.
Every player wants to get paid.
Kane has debts, also from the west coast – makes sense.
and their Stanley chances?
I had a bad feeling the Avs were going to screw the Oilers over tonight but they are up 4-0 near the end of the first.
6-2, after two. The good news continues.
The Avs seem to be taking care to deal with potential playoff foes.
Geezus Vladdy…..
Yea hell of a night! Too bad he didn’t get that 5 th at bat.
My goodness:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
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8m
Alright here we go…
Skinner gets his 29th appearance.
Condors without nine regulars as Niemelainen and Kemp are both out with Esposito suspended up front. Watts & Kielb are both in.
Last game at The Tank! Talk to ya in 15 #Condorstown!
Team play is their calling card
Not an insurmountable team but not to be taken lightly
Get after them as they do and take over IMO
Skate their plugs into the ground
Same team with more size and talent
Goalie the only question
Billy is smart he knows when Talbot leaks it’s time to bring in Fleury or vice-versa.
Godot mentioned earlier that Jesse is vulnerable to an offer sheet and I agree.
It might entail a one year offer at a cap hit the Oilers simply cannot match similar to the 1 year deal the Hurricanes signed Kotkaniemi last season after which Carolina extended him for 8 years at a very reasonable cap hit.
Eric Tulsky is a master at finding value contracts and of course Jesse and Kotkaniemi are both represented by Mark Lehto and Carolina is awash in Finns.
Interesting to look at Carolina’s cap situation next season.
They have four aging forwards hitting UFA status in the offseason including Neitereiter, Trochek, Stepan And Domi totalling about $11 million in cap space.
The Canes have demonstrated they won’t sign aging players to long term extensions and instead look for market inefficiencies.
Yawn
sure sure offersheets
Happen all the time (Kotkaniemi was revenge offer sheet)
teams just go out signing offer sheets
It’s not like they don’t have restricted free agents to sign
oh wait is Martin Necas a RFA too
The Hurricanes will have more than $20 million in cap space in the offseason and have ZERO dead cap.
The Oilers will have less than $9 million as well as carrying $4 million in dead cap + Kassian + a 39 year Keith + a 41 year old Smith.
Pretty sure which GM I would prefer to be.
The new young GM in the NFL and NBA don’t effing care about how GM business used to be done. I don’t think the young GM’s in the NHL give a damn either. I believe that the era of the offer sheet and the double offer sheet is coming.
Imagine that – an Oiler so coveted, he gets offer-sheeted!
The team must be doing something right, eh?
It seems clear the ‘painful and unnecessary departures’ comment was about Puljujarvi.
I posted a little about Puljujarvi’s agent yesterday. I’m more concerned about Lehto and Puljujarvi’s possible contract demands then I am about Holland not valuing the player (though i’m clearly in the minority there).
So a question for LT and the group. How high an AAV would you be willing to go for Puljujarvi? Or put another way, at what point would ‘unnecessary departure’ blend into ‘so so value for cap hit’?
For any replies, please attach the term to any AAV since that will have a big effect on things.
I would go eight years and $5 million, knowing there is a risk he plateaus as a 20-goal scorer. He’s proven that much imo, and he’s a fantastic two-way forward who can elevate a line. I said as much here:
https://theathletic.com/3241363/2022/04/11/lowetide-evander-kanes-scoring-prowess-and-what-he-brings-the-oilers/
In a couple of years that is a high value contract
Guys get that now. Just like Drai’s
Yes, and that may not be enough. In that case, a one-year deal would be appropriate I think. There’s enough doubt about his offense imo to stay away from $6M+ on a long-term deal.
And just like they have with Nurse’s…
😉
Many of us were begging the Oilers to go long term on Nurse sooner .Nurse kept his cool and bet on himself, and hit the lottery when the D market reset. It is not what you pay your best players that gets a GM in trouble. Nurse will be fully paid. If the Oilers had committed sooner, they could have had him at a bargain rate.
Thanks for the reply. I’d skimmed what you wrote for the athletic the other day but re-read now. Your position is pretty clear.
I largely agree, but I’m a bit more on the Kane side I think. If Puljujarvi were to cost $5M x 8 and Kane were willing to sign for $5.5M x 4, then I think I’d go with Kane plus the Puljujarvi trade return.
Fair enough if you and others don’t agree, but I think the expectations (maybe just in my own head) have been that Puljujarvi will be substantially cheaper than Kane (like $1.5-$2M cheaper). Wherever you line is, things certainly do get murkier as those numbers get closer together.
With Kane, my expectation is he’ll get $6M times five from someone like Philly. A four-year deal is one too many but I think Holland would do it.
Yes that’s been my expectation too, and agree Holland likely would sign Kane to $6M x 4.
I’d be awfully tempted to as well, to be honest, in particular if Puljujarvi is going to cost $5M to re-sign.
I’d prefer not to say goodbye to either player, but retaining both definitely won’t be easy.
That sounds almost like Joel Eriksson Ek’s contract. Eriksson Ek scored about like Puljujarvi. But he also finished top 4 for the Selke (ahead of O’Reilly, Danault, Kopitar, etc.)
I’d like to hope we could lock up JP for less…even if Kenny is the one negotiating the contracts. (Let’s hope he can live up to the “Old Dutch” name…Dutchies tend to know the value of a dollar.)
That’s a fair comparison, but Kotkaniemi (as I mentioned) is the comp the concerns me. Lesser boxcars than Jesse, though also less aided by his linemates. Puljujarvi’s deal will be buying more UFA years than Kotkaniemi’s 8 x $4.82M. Same agent of course.
4.5 for 7 or 8 years would be good value in my opinion. This is working on the assumption the cap will begin to escalate. The 4.5 will be a little high for the first two years and a value contract the last few years. It gives JP security on what I believe will be a fair renumeration over the life of the contract.
I believe the first material increase in the cap is projected after the 2024/25 season when the escrow balance if finally paid off – until then, we should expect yearly $1MM increases.
Of note, when the cap is re-linked to HRR at that time, look for it to spike fairly massively – not long before the $100MM range.
I agree that Lehto is a huge wildcard in this (and I think that he was an issue during Jesse’s first few years after the draft including “requiring” Jesse to be on the roster for 40 games to vest a UFA year).
I have no idea that type of contract either the player and his agency or the organization are looking for.
Nor do I. I was wondering what you (and others) would pay, if they are looking for a lot.
The mistake was not Jesse’s agents. The agent and the player were inclined to stay in Finland one more year, and Chiarelli made the handshake games played bribe/offer (without McLellan being on side with the guaranteed games/playing time). If an eighteen year old wants to stay in his home country, or a US college players wants an extra year in college, the team should not try to induce them to do otherwise.
Yes, it was a mistake as the NHL was not the proper place for him to play at 18. Yes, Chiaelli should have allowed him to stay in Finland for another year but his agent should have also allowed him to play in the AHL after signing his ELC and coming to NA.
I think I’d go up to 5.5mx8 or a low AAV on a one year deal. Depending on how they manage things, Oilers don’t necessarily have to have such a tight cap crunch after next season.
For Kane, I think I top out at 4.5mx4. Given he could have traded at 50% by San Jose if there was interest a few months ago, how much more would he realistically get? If things are going well in Edmonton and he feels like his life is on track and the team is good, would he leave money on the table?
I’d start getting uncomfortable over $5M on Puljujarvi.
And if Kane were willing to sign for $4.5M x 4, I’d find a way to make that happen.
We’ll see, but I think teams will forget many of those concerns after a productive, trouble free half season of hockey.
Based on on ice play he’s been worth the contract SJ gave him imo.
Lindholm as well – may win the selke.
I’m not overly scared of the flames.
All-USCHO Third Team
F Carter Savoie, Denver
https://www.uscho.com/latest/
Interesting that Owen Power was also on the third team.
No prospectings to be had tonight.
Tomorrow, however, will feature intrigue. Intrigued yet? Of course you are!
Oh my. Quite the enigma. A real mystery wrapped in a riddle. You could sell seats but all anyone would need is the edge.
Hey LT, why do you call it unnecessary departures when in the preceding sentences you state that the roster is flawed and money is too tight? Doesn’t this make any departure necessary, maybe a necessary evil but necessary nonetheless.
My read was potential departures made unnecessary by less than ideal cap management.
The next 4 games are hard matchups but the last 4 games are very winnable with only one playoff team and the Pens havent been playing very well lately
I think any team with dreams of winning the cup, or even going anywhere in the playoffs past Round One welcomes the tougher matchups.
The cautionary is the distinct possibility of injuries in harder matchups!
Boy oh boy only last night before the game starts its like “We held the Avs to a tie, screw the OT” into “the team is freaking doomed!” by the end of the game.
Now am reading about smear campaigns from the MSM against certain players and naturally the fans will eventually take most of the blame.
Yet as type this Oilers are safely in the playoff zone.
Now the majority of the fans are holding their collective breath as the thought of yet another beat down by the physical Predators. Wow.
The Magic number is the number of standing points the Oilers must win or the other team must lose in order for the Oilers to remain ahead of the other team in the standings. This can be done in combination, for example, if there was a magic number of 10, that could be reached by the other team losing two games, and the Oilers winning 3. Oilers +6 points, the other team -4 points= 10 standing points.
*All Magic numbers are to clear the other teams’ highest point total, as tiebreakers are unpredictable
Out of town scoreboard was not nice.
Oilers lose
Calgary wins
Canucks win
Knights lose in OT
Nashville wins
Stars win
(honestly the only thing that could have been worse is if the Knights had won in OT)
Firstly, for any other numbers to matter, the Oilers must be passed by a Pacific division team, and be relegated to the Wild Card. The Ducks, Sharks, and Coyotes can no longer catch the Oilers:
Vegas Knights: 12
Vancouver Canucks: 9
IF a Pacific team catches the Oilers, the following Magic numbers apply to the wildcard:
Nashville Predators: 18
Dallas Stars: 17
Winnipeg Jets: 8
Finally, the jockey for playoff positioning leads us to one team we are ahead of, and only one other team we are chasing:
Los Angeles Kings: 13
Calgary Flames: -7
Hartman’s $4250 fine is pretty light for his actions, methinks.
The maximum allowable under the CBA.
He’s a cheap shot rat. I would like to see him stand up straight in front of Kane instead of his superman dive in and then hide behind the linesmen. Kane would have beat him down.
At least he faked engagement. Not like our guys
Per Nugent Bowman:
I’m told the knee/thigh injury to Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway isn’t healing as well/quickly as anticipated. Holloway is expected to be out through the weekend, so he’ll miss at least two more games. He’ll be re-evaluated in a week.
Rats.
A non-healing wrist and now a non-healing thigh.
When I was 25 I had Lasic vision correction done. Instead of the usual couple days, mine took 6 months to heal. The ophthalmologist said I had the epithelial healing of an 80 year old.
I think young Dylan and I may have this in common.
The one thing we won’t get this year from Holloway in the AHL is a true hot streak. We don’t really know if he’s top six or middle six and that’s less than ideal
As an aside, and this is nothing new – but the Minny broadcast crew continues to be god awful. No attempts to show any kind of objectivity at all.
They continue to occupy last place in the NHL – imo- of broadcast crews around the NHL.
The Seattle guys are making a strong push for worst in the league – but we will give them some slack as it is their first year here.
Who are your faves ? I can’t stand the Hawks but Pat Foley on TV and John Weideman on radio are great. I grew up listening to Pat Foley and Dale Tallon on WBBM.
The Dallas crew of Josh Bogorod and Daryl Reaugh are exceptional.
agreed
Yes, good one ….love Razor
I like the Preds crew and really like Terry Crisp.
I love the older guys.
Now, it goes without saying most/all guys are biased towards the home team so we have to acknowledge that.
Mickey Redmond in Detroit. Calls out his own players.
Last game against the Oilers calling out 1st round draft pick Jakub Vrana –
“Has he touched the puck today”
He is not every ones cup of tea – but I love Jack Edwards in Boston. Marvels at McDavid and you can tell in his call. Calls out – how shall we say – less than noble players.
John Garrett in Vancouver – though definitely suffers from homerism.
Just off the top of my head…
Garrett is the ultimate homer! His picture should be beside the definition in the dictionary. No balance to his remarks and continues with his bias after video replay prove him wrong!
When was the last time you caught the home broadcast for CGY or VAN? Those have to be the worst games I’ve ever heard in my life. While I don’t dislike the EDM crew, I typically opt to listen to the other teams’ broadcasts as an habit from the Drew Remedial days. Tend to learn a bit more about the opposition and less of a slant to the good ol’ boys.
They also beat us with Backstrom … a lot. This goes wayyyyy back
Sakic does it again signing Ben Myers out of the University of Minnesota
https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f996.svg ryan lambert https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f995.svg
@twolinepass
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28m
the other thing that’s funny about this is drew helleson didn’t want to sign in colorado because he saw no clear path to the NHL with the avs, so the avs sent him to anaheim in the josh manson deal and simply signed a (2.5-years-older) college player who’s much better than him
How much of that is Sakic, and how much of it is a college player wanting to sign with a top team and having a “clear path to the NHL” as you referenced?
Check out the “milehighsticking” Avalanche fan site and please relieve us of your brown nosing drivel.
Well, that’s a tell – Kadri’s not coming back.
I so hope the Avs have a terrible summer with MacKinnon constantly calling everyone up and yelling at them
Why are we comparing a right shot defenseman who didn’t want to sign with colorado with a left winger who did want to sign with colorado? I don’t think drew helleson’s situation is very relevant to Myers’.
How does this compare to the two vaunted NCAA signings Holland recently consummated?
Actually asking, I have no yard stick for these guys.
Clayton Kershaw perfect through 7 innings against the Twins, 13 strikeouts, 80 pitches thrown. They pulled him. Man have they ever sucked the fun out of baseball.
So ridiculous.
Philly Flyers: Keith, we know you’re only 11 games from an unprecedented 1000 game iron man streak, and the rest of the season is basically meaningless for us, but we’re gonna have to ask you to sit this one out.
Dodgers: Philly, hold my beer. *opens window, shouts* Hey! Kershaw! We know you have a decent chance at one of the greatest achievements in the sporting universe, but hit the showers. And I thought I told you to trim those sideburns!”
“I sense, based on what is being rolled out by the connected media, this summer will see some painful and unnecessary departures.”
Who is LT referring to, here?
My suspicion is Puljujarvi or Yamamoto. Probably the former based on shots fired by the “connected” media.
Kind of toxic, constantly shitting on players long before they leave.
It’s like some kind of horrible, disfunctional family.
To keep Kane and Puljujarvi, Kassian, Barrie, Foegele, and Yamamoto probably all have to go.
Yamamoto would be painful to LT.
Kassian doesn’t need replacing. Kane already does.
Barrie doesn’t need replacing. Bouchard will.
Holloway can replace Foegele.
And Bourgault will be able to replace Yamamoto soon.
Yamamoto is your addition to that list. He absolutely does not need to go in order to keep the others. His next contract is basically guaranteed to be the smallest of all the players you mention, and you’ve only added him to this list because you don’t value him.
I’ve mentioned something similar in response to his inclusion of Yamamoto in the past and I agree with you.
If you think you can keep Yamamoto as well as Kane and Puljujarvi, I’d be interested to see how you would do it. It’s easy to say, hard to do.
Yeah it is *possible* to keep all 3.
It’s the $4M plus for Kane and Puljujarvi that’s the difficult part to make work.
Hartman is a jerk, I don’t like his verbal shot at Kane here. That said even though the refs saved him from a whalloping , last night I said I wanted more pricks, and this one has some grit, like his goal over Koski while getting stick lifted and hit by Keith from behind
“Hartman saw things another way: “It goes to show, we had five guys in there. They didn’t have one guy in there to help him. I don’t think any of their guys are going to defend him.”
That’s a low shot at Kane the person. He’s wrong there. But, that’s how opponents still see the Oilers. And despite comments here, nobody really stepped in while a teammate got swarmed.
That is unacceptable. That is Steve Austin Oilers, can’t have that anymore.
This is where an analytics team comes in. Go find me two mean D and 4 mean F that are good at hockey and can skate
And finish your roster regardless of who’s feelings get hurt for a day
If Holland even noticed what happened, he’ll say ‘Arch, who is a lanky defenseman I can trust, prolly get one in the summer if things go right for me. An experienced guy in the book’
And he’ll suggest Chara or Myers or something
Should of kept Maroon he knew what his job was and did it well. All the slag Archie takes on this board at least he would of been the first one to jump in and have his line mates back.
Memory tells me that Maroon wasn’t considered “good enough” for these Oilers.
Good enough, but no money. Lucic had all Maroon’s money.
Maroon ate Lucic’s lunch, and Lucic balked to ChiaPete. So Maroon was traded because of a rift in the room, according to Brian Burke on OilersNow.
The cost to keep maroon would have been $4 million.
Less than the plan they went with. Which turned out so well
Yup, from various accounts, Maroon wasn’t re-signing in Edmonton for anywhere close to the $1.75MM that he did in STL.
It’s just he’s not a very good player at evens. Functional toughness is what’s needed
Jumping in to help a teammate is impossible when you are not good enough to even sit on the bench.
Maroon has 3 rings the old fashioned way, he earned them. He’s a blue collar legend in Tampa as well as St.loo.
Yeah I would have loved it if Maroon had stuck around in Edmonton. But him winning the cup in his hometown infront of his kid was the better outcome.
We just need an Albertan version of Maroon.
St.loo doesn’t have the huge fan base like Canadian teams or certain other American teams but their fan base is Loyal. Grant Fuhr is a Hero in St.loo the man played 76 consecutive games in a row 79 in total in 1995 then followed it up with 73 games played. Fuhr must laugh when the Mikko groupies try to give the same excuse that he’s tired and that’s why he leaks from terrible angles and has ECHL rebound control.
My hatred for Minnesota is real and spectacular. They are like the Borg on STNG.
So with a Nashville team that leads the league in fights next up, do you alter last nights line up. Does the coach look at Kassian and say “he hit a post and just missed on a breakaway” let’s leave him in, or does he say “he hit a post and just missed on a breakaway” and those are the best plays he’s made in the last 10 games we need to give someone a shot? He’s not really physical anymore and doesn’t (and really shouldn’t) fight anymore so his fear factor is gone. Kenny needs to do his coaches a favour and send him away this summer. I still find it hard to believe that this is his 7th, 7th!!’, season in Edmonton. Doesn’t feel that long, maybe because he never does much on the ice
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
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15m
Some positive news as Cooper Marody and Philip Broberg have joined an optional morning skate at the Shark Tank.
Thank Gord the Avalanche are going to crush the Wild for us before we arrive in the Western Final.
Meh – I certainly don’t take anything that the likes of Spector writes as any sort of message from Holland. Shit, Spec was expressly against the Kane signing.
Sure, Stauff works for the Oilers and is a definite insider but countless of his projections on his show year after year go untrue.
That’s because you don’t understand the reasoning. It goes something like this.
1) Spector is an unintelligent man who holds boring and conventional views about hockey.
2) We are worried that Holland (or any other old school general manager) is unintelligent and hold boring and conventional views about hockey.
3) We don’t know what Holland is thinking.
4) We do know what Spector is thinking.
5) Use what Spector is thinking as a proxy for what Holland is thinking.
View from a mile hight this is not a very reasonable string of thoughts. Unfortunately, this is what happens over and over and over again. If you want to guess what is happening don’t be creative, don’t come up with good ideas, think of the worst idea you can imagine and you’ll be right more often than not. Using Spector as a proxy for the worst idea you can imagine is just trying to be efficient.
I know this doesn’t fit with your pathological optimism, but it is a reasonable heuristic for dealing with an irrational world.
I should wait until the Oilers beat the Golden Nights on Saturday to say this. but, I think the Oilers are going to be hard pressed to get past the first round this year.
#HopeImWrong
Need to get Smith going and hit the Playoffs running. Smith is 0-9 in his last 9 Playoff games but I’ll take my chances with him over leaky Mikko who’s days in Edmonton are mercifully winding down.
To be fair, Smith didn’t play bad in the playoffs last year and was spectacular against Colorado three years ago, even though the Flames lost 4 games to 1.
Don’t even say that out loud
Kenny – hold my Ensure!
When’s the last time a Goalie has lost 9 Playoff games in a row and still has a job in the league. I dare anyone to find this in the history of the game. The scary part is starting leaky over old man river will result in another early exit. Woody needs to get Smith up and going he’s our only hope unless they bring up Skinner whose had a very good past when it comes to the real season.
Koskinen has also had playoff success in non-NHL leagues…..
I see it the other way – they’ll have the Knights or Kings in the first round, both teams in the range who the Oilers can trade chances with.
Teams like the Wild, Blues and Flames who can play shut-down hockey (with great goaltending) and transition quickly are the Oilers’ nemesis.
So second round fodder – progress I guess?
The Wild definitely have the Oilers number, but it’s interesting that it’s not so clear vs the other ‘shut-down’ teams.
The Oilers are 2-1-0 vs the Blues (incl an OT win), and 2-2-0 vs the Flames.
I mostly agree with you, though the results don’t bear that out.
The Kings actually give up the second fewest shots in the league just behind Carolina.
If Quick gets hot they’ll be a tough out although playing without their top pairing won’t help.
Great 11;30 segment today LT. Well done. Duly Noted.
Kane:
Certainly the Oilers org have a penchant for the Power Forward type.
I wonder if Mr. Holland sees Kane as a lesser version of Brenden Shanahan.
Mr Holland is not averse to signing older players.
We speak of Kane pricing himself out of the Edmonton market; I think JP’s Agent could possibly price JP out of the Edmonton market. I seriously doubt that the Agent does Edmonton any favours. What does JP’s Arbitration Number come in at??
Someone here pointed out that Holland could (reasonably?) look at his Cap Space and calculate this as the value of a Signed Kane + the value of the return on a traded JP versus just signing JP and getting nothing for Kane.
I think all of this ^ will tilt the scales towards signing Kane, UNLESS JP’s Agent can be convinced to sign a “Value Contract”
From an analytics point of view, as you point out, Holland has a poor track record for getting fair value let alone winning a trade, when moving a player like JP. But history tells us, this fact probably doesn’t enter Holland’s calculus like it does ours.
Given all of this ^ I’m hoping that we bridge JP and sign Kane to as short of a contract as is possible. But “hoping” is a bad strategy.
I also liked how you asked Joe Osborne if he fades a team who has a prominent rookie on the starting roster (NBA).and he said NO.
That surprised me.
#GREATquestion
The Jesse risk is an offer sheet than sees beyond the boxcars, not an arbitration award which is pretty much based on the boxcars.
Yep. Exactly the strategy Carolina employed when they signed Kotkaniemi.
Ridiculous 1 year offer sheet then extended 8 years at a very nice cap hit.
Carolina has a brace of Finns.
I wonder if Mike Smith makes a difference i a game like last night – a game where the d-men, or many of them, were having difficulty making/executing quick plays under pressure and goals against ensued.
Our only hope is Mike Smith playing well
Koskinen doesn’t play well in games like that (Colorado plays to the oilers strengths even if better) and that is playoff hockey
I think Smith’s puck moving is going to be key to alleviate pressure
These are good points by you and other posters in this thread….
But there are very few goalies in the league that can do what Smith does. This is a merit to his game. So, generally speaking, it is not so much which goalie is in net, but moreso the fact the oilers D and team need to be much better under forecheck pressure…
IMO Yes. I think Mikko is the better puck stopper, but Smith is an Elite puck handler. I hope they function as a tandem come playoff time.
Is there something about Minnesota that makes this a bad matchup? Do we have a “type”?
It starts with Brodin who seems to be a top 5% lateral skater which allows him to control McDavid off the rush. Jaccob Slavin is the other one I can think of that gives McDavid fits. That player type would be called “elite, defense-first defensemen”. Wheras he seems to have excellent success against the more famous “offensive” defenseman like Doughty and Hedman.
I wonder about their “scattershot” of talent. As Louie said, only Kaprizov jumps off the page at you. Maybe that’s hard to game plan for as you can’t just point 97/29/25 at Nathan MacKinnon, and say “go beat that guy”.
Our soft underbelly (3rd line and 3rd pairing) are pretty strong compared to many Oiler teams of the past but they got eviscerated last night. Reminds me of what the HBK line (Hagelin, Bonino and Kessell) did for the Pens in their last Cup run. Nuge, Foegele, Ryan, Keith and Bouchard are a nice group of 5 that should be plenty dangerous against Anaheim’s 3rd line but do we need to be concerned how they’ll hold up against top-end 3rds?
Just curious if there’s something to learn here.
I might be wrong, but it appeared to me McDavid was about the only guy they were not controlling off the rush last night.
Yep.
Oiler/Wild games result in the worst hockey I have ever seen.
I always blamed the Wild in the past with their boring trap hockey but I’ve watched them play other teams and it’s not the same, weird.
Teams that forecheck hard, are disciplined and take away centre ice, and finish checks are what they can’t handle
The guys in the roster don’t like kicking it up, and the team for years can’t make consistent quality chances off the cycle. There is no timing which is key to do that
They also can break out under duress, and can’t time zone entries effectively
So their pressure breaks down, and they end up chasing the play
Any team, any skill level, the Oilers look useless against it
Teams that give them any space and aren’t that physical they can play with, like the Avs who are a similar but better version
Even still they can carry a lot of possession but for me don’t create a lot of actually good scoring chances that aren’t rush chances
And on the Kane re signing. I think it all comes down to if they keep the coaching staff. Because I expect that they actually appreciate Puljujarvi. and if Woodrcroft is back then they keep Jesse and promote some of the kids that he knows from the AHL (Holloway, Broberg, etc.).
If they keep Kane, i expect we see Jesse moved. and yep it’ll be another in a long list of death by a thousand stupid short sighted old boys cub moves.
As usual it will come down to money, what’s a good price range for JP and what does management do if the Agents ask is way above that?
Woodcroft Era
EDM Goal Diff 30 gp(19-8-3) (0.683 pts%)
EV (3v3,4v4,5v5)
97 w/o 29(26-17) 60%
29 w/o 97(24-15) 62%
97&29 On(8-3) 73%
93 w/o either(10-10) 50%
71(3-6) 33%
10(5-4) 56%
Other(2-6) 25%
Net EV +17
Special Teams 25-23=+2
Empty Net 9-4=+5
SO/PS 1-1=0
Goal Diff +24
EDM Goal Diff 74 gp(42-26-6)
EV(5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29(49-37) 57%
29 w/o 97(48-39) 55%
97&29 On(22-14) 61%
93 w/o either(18-19) 49%
71(11-17) 39%
10(15-27) 36%
Other(6-13) 32%
Net EV +3
Special Teams 64-56
Net ST +8
Empty Net 19-12
Net EN +7
SO & PS 4-1 = +3
Goal Diff +21
The difference in Koski and Smith’s puck-handling is affecting things.
Where were the Fs last night? When Smith is in net, they can play much higher. when koski takes the pipes, do they come back lower each and every time?
When the other team has a two man forecheck going, how many Oiler players do you see in the DZone? If the answer is two, that’s where the play went wrong.
Hyman pointed out this issue post-game last night and he has a point,.
Great post.
I’m convinced now, the Oilers need to sign Kane.
The great thing about Kane is he can play up & down your line up.
More than that, apparently he’s taking a shine to JP and JP to him, and that’s huge for me.
This is also the 2nd time he’s stuck up for Yamamoto.
Leadership was this huge question mark prior to signing, that all seems to be lost in the mess of misinformation.
I’m glad he’s an Oiler.
ideal lineup to me up front
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Holloway-Draisatl-Hyman
Foegele-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Shore-McLeod-Ryan
That’s the most balanced 3 attacking, decent size and speed everywhere lineup. and the 4th line is responsible and solid with enough speed due to McLeod. Kassian is not on it, but he could slide in on the 4th for Shore
If you assign wins and losses by who is higher in PTS% and assign the win to the home team if they are close in PTS%, this is what the final standings might look like:
Central
COL 128
MIN 110
STL 110
————-
Pacific
CGY 115
EDM 100
LAK 100
————-
Wildcard:
DAL 100
NSH 95
Disqualified
VGK 91
VAN 88
LAK have an easy schedule and might go 6-1, while VGK have a tough schedule that may see them go 3-5. I have EDM at 5-3. NSH has the toughest schedule and might go 3-6. If VGK improves and has a good run they could catch NSH if they tank.
100 Point Wins: DAL 48, EDM 47, LAK 45
110 Point Wins: MIN 52, STL 50
Playoff Matchups:
COL (home)
NSH
MIN (home)
STL
CGY (home)
DAL
EDM (home)
LAK
Ryan Hartman fined $4250 for flipping the bird to Kane last night.
Minnesota beat reporter Michael Russo saying a Venmo account set up to thank Hartman has already raised $50K from Wild fans.
Please tell me they’re going to donate that money to a charity or something
Society for the Preservation of Birds?
One of my thoughts from last night, beyond the Oilers themselves, Minnesota look like a damn good team. Boldy and Fiala looked fantastic together, they have some good chemistry. Kaprisov is some player. Talbot always seems to be solid against us – and I still can’t cheer against him, loved that guy here.
Never mind the Oilers, I could see Colorado struggling against the Wild if they meet in the playoffs.
For the Oilers? Take our lumps and move on, every team is going to have a rough game here or there in the season – the Wild were executing where we weren’t. Let’s concentrate on beating Nashville.
Colorado will and does struggle against the Wild. Unfortunately the Wild struggle against the Blues.
I’d be tempted to run Kulak-Bouchard.
Barrie at least is a vet and shouldn’t be as deer-in-headlights as Bouchard and maybe he can cover off for Keith (I can’t believe I just typed that sentence).
Keith is a gamer but there were worries about his gap control and foot speed coming into the season.
It’s going to cost us in the playoffs. Next year will be worse.
Was his footspeed really the issue last night? I thought it was his passing (usually the best part of his game) that was horrific and led to the majority of issues.
More Jesse quotes courtesy of Mari Lonberg and her translation:
Mari Lönnberg
@LonnbergMari
·
38m
It’s in Finnish today. Thanks to
@Freyja1987
for pointing it out. Even the title itself is much better. Pulju is quoted saying ”I try to battle so goddamn hard”. Finnish forward scores too few goals for his role…
Of course you think about it and worry about it… This is new from Pulju. He says that You are not suppose to go to the rink and ask sorry for Yourself. Pulju says that Kane is very good at this, he is not afraid of anything…
… Kane goes everywhere with full force and he hits everything. Pulju thinks he should take after Kane and be more physical himself. And he is eagerly looking forward the playoffs.
https://twitter.com/LonnbergMari/status/1514273946744545290
I thought I had noticed a bond growing between Kane and Puljujarvi so Puljujarvi comments kinda solidifies it for me. I really hope he does try to model his game after Kane’s more. Jesse still has that gentle giant look to him sometimes on the ice.
Holy H E Double Hockey Sticks this is good to hear.
Love JP.
@4m
Kane being a “bad” influence on an impressionable bison! -)
NHL Teams lose hockey games – it happens. The team has essentially been on another long road trip with one home game squashed in the middle. After the Nashville game, they are home essentially for the rest of the year save for a quick trip out east for a two gamer. They should be motivated Thursday, and the game Saturday will be huge.
Here’s hopin we leave Nashville singing Roger Miller’s “King of the Road”
and not George Jones, “The race Is On!”
Hindsight is 20/20
Alternate title for todays post
John Anderson “Wild and Blue”
I know, I know…..
#GrowALittleBlogOfYourOwn 🙂
The Defense could not handle the aggressive playoff style forecheck. Is this a one game blip or is there some real cause for concern that our D will struggle in the playoffs? Thoughts?
I think you play Smith when playing a heavy forecheck team. His puck handling disrupts the forecheck.
Minnesota is so on top of the D, Smith might be worse. The Wild would be shooting pucks into empty nets.
I’d rather play Mikko, and tell the centre and forwards to backtrack faster and deeper.
OK, the Oilers, going in to last night’s game, one of the league’s best in the last 10 games and the last 30 games got shit-kicked by a solid team.
As I catch up on all Oilers’ social media, I presume, we are back to:
1) fire Nicholson
2) Bouch wouldn’t be terrible last night if he had played last year
3) Keith is old and unplayable – fire Holland
4) Yamamoto isn’t big enough for playoff hockey
5) the entire defensive group is soft and will get killed in the playoffs – fire Holland
6) Nurse – $9.25MM boo, fire Holland
Did I miss anything?
To be honest I did not watch the entire game, I had it up on my laptop for the third while I watched something else. I thought MaD was on fire, the reffing sucked again, and Kulak looked good again to my eye. That is what we should be talking about this morning.
I only watched the first due to some other commitments but I thought they were good there too. Kept the puck in the offensive zone but mostly to the outside.
They seem to leak chances off turnovers, and when they are in the same situation they don’t seem to be able to create that high quality chance. Still watching the play develop a bit rather than playing instictually. One game – let’s see how they respond against nashville. Vegas loses in OT, they play calgary and edmonton next. Those games are huge for them and may deifne their season. At least the Oilers aren’t in that “must win” scenario like Vegas is.
This is just in your head Mr. Perfect.
I’m down for firing Nicholson and Holland. Get it done Katz.
Retirement age guys are causing the problems
They have had their successes. Nothing to prove, too comfortable and don’t put in the work to stay current, perhaps hubris
Woody shows this. Night and day from Tipp. Holland and Tipp aren’t bad, but it’s all passing them by, they aren’t good enough for Connor’s team; and the historic opportunities just laying there getting trampled
Burgers took the easy way to 2 blah GMs. Holland is doing it with players, and hiring Woody is another easy approach in his MO – promote the AHL guy, no credit for insight there
Wait, does this post imply that the likes of Smith and Keith are comfortable and have not put in the required work?
Lots and lots of coaches are hired mid-season that are’t already in the org. Holland should definitely get credit for hiring a guy with zero NHL head coaching experience when there is a TON of pressure to ensure the playoffs are made in that season.
He had two coaches on the bench already with NHL head coaching experience.
Holland definitely deserves credit for the good things he does, and Woodcroft is one of them.
I also heard that Kane called Holland and asked to play for the Oilers.
No as it was referring to Holland Burgers and Tipp
Woody had 8 years coaching experience on an NHL bench on a top team with top players. Then 3.5 years HC experience. He was the most overqualified AHL to head coach hire ever. And completely predictable for Holland’s MO
Nobody is all good or all bad at a job
I am not going to whitewash very consequential poor decisions Holland has made because it is wasting what is unusual and exceptional
It is obvious because he says so that he is following a model that worked before, but over a decade ago
The world changes. The operation of teams is much different, even if the players aren’t as much in a greater sense
What he is doing may not be as bad as some before him, but it isn’t good enough, and the standard for Connor’s team should be excellence too to bottom, because he’s excellent and generational
We have seen up close what that looks like, and it is reasonable and fair to think that’s the standard
So what if other teams can’t do it? That isn’t the mark to shoot for if your goals are lofty
Be the model for excellence in the current paradigm. You have a 20 yard head start in 100 yard race with Connor on your team
The answer is easy. Put players on your team like Guerin did on his to surround your top 3 C L & D
You don’t even have to be that creative, copy and paste the process
It is so frustrating. It is so close and the info is even free to get if your interested. Or see what the current best teams do and copy that.
If your not a casual fan I suppose, or haven’t thrown the towel in long ago
Wait, the answer is to make moves that will have buyout cap hits of:
$4.7MM
$12.7MM
$14.7MM
the following three seasons?
Holland didn’t have an MO for hiring a coach mid-season (with or without immense pressure to turn it around instantly) – he’d never done it before.
Qualified or not, hiring a person with zero NHL head coaching experience came with risk – there were other more experienced options for interim.
I give the GM credit.
Well, I mean,
1) – accurate regardless of losing yesterday
3) – Keith is serviceable for sure, but based on the trade to get him – accurate
I think trying to re-sign Kulak would be a good idea.
I was going to go with rhyme but made a game time decision;
My first line Wordle word for today is…..
“stoat” 🙂
Lots of roster construction for next year posts coming out now.
Don’t forget they will have an $850K cap penalty for next season as Bouch has hit his max 4 Type A bonuses.
Either Duncan Keith retires, or we go into next season with a Smith-Skinner tandem.
Perhaps last night’s dash-4 steers the veteran towards a career scouting the Western league.
Pretty sure one game will have little bearing on what Keith decides to do next season. The Keith deal was terrible at the time it was signed and won’t look any better next year when he is a 6 or 7 defender. The cap hit is punishing. We should light candles for a Keith retirement!
My good friend Martini tells me he’d bet a dime (one half of a cigarette) that Keith sees more ice time than Bouchard throughout the playoffs.
My friend Taber says “I bet a buck” Keith signs a second contract with the Oilers.
I mean, I don’t pay any attention to either of them, after all they are certifiably crazy; But sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.
Keith isn’t a cap check mate even if he’s too expensive. And he’s off in a season unless incompetence reigns
If the will is there they could create a lot of cap and use value players to get what they need, because it’s not more skill
It’s more push back as usual. Every player should be able to skate, and handle the puck
But you don’t need a team of super smart playmakers, in fact it doesn’t work
You need players that are hard to play against and can execute their assignments, their teammates can rely on them to do their job and come out at least even
We see it when we get hammered- the other teams players look soooo goood
Because when you can play a game that pushes and do the basics well chances come, and confidence is there from solid play and solid team play, so guys actually pop a few if they get a chance
The Jekyll and Hyde we see is because unless everything goes their way, a lot of Oiler players are overmatched in play or physicality, and things fall apart.
They start to play slower, and everybody’s play slides down the drain, circling with the team’s fragile confidence