2021-22 Game 75: Oilers at Predators

by Lowetide

For much of this season, we discussed 94-96 points as the line in the sand for the postseason, with a top-three spot in the Pacific division requiring close to 100 points. Edmonton has reached the 90-point plateau with eight games to play, the second team in the division to reach the mark.

Los Angeles Kings are at 88 points, with six games to play. Edmonton has two games in hand, and a two-point lead. If LAK goes 4-2, that’s 96 points. Edmonton would need to go 3-4-1 to finish with 97 points.

Vegas now has 85 points with eight games to go. If the VGK can go 5-3-0, the club will finish with 95 points. The Oilers would need to go 3-5-0 to land with 96 points at the end of the regular season. Looks good, coming down the back stretch.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

  • At home to: STL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: VEG, DAL, COL (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CBJ, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, VAN (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Actual April results: 4-1-1, 9 points in 6 games
  • Oilers in 2021-22: 42-26-6, 90 points in 74 games

Edmonton needs 6+ points to put this thing to bed, and it would seem likely we’ll see it happen in the next week or so. I’ve been fascinated by this six-game stretch (I predicted 2-4-0) that is currently 0-1-1. Tonight was a win for me, we’ll see if my crystal ball holds up. I will say Woodcroft-Manson have enjoyed a nice run here, no ditches hit since late February-early March as far as losing streaks go. Edmonton needs to avoid the 2-6-0 stretch from February 20 to March 7 and should be home and dry.

TONIGHT

I expect we’ll see some tweaks tonight, but for me Woodcroft has the lines right. Connor McDavid with Evander Kane and Jesse Puljujarvi has outscored opponents 7-1, with an expected goal share of 58 percent. That’s gold, Jerry.

Leon Draisaitl between Zach Hyman and Kailer Yamamoto isn’t delivering at the same levels, but LD isn’t 100 percent either. Since the trio has been put together (84 minutes) we’re looking at 6-6 goals and a 48 percent expected goal share. Since Woodcroft’s arrival, the line has played 60 minutes together. Just getting started.

The Warren Foegele-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Derek Ryan line shouldn’t work but it does. In 82 minutes, the group is 7-5 goals and 54 percent expected goals. This is a third line that works. I can see tweaking the top two lines but this trio has chem.

Zack Kassian moved up the depth chart in Minnesota, will he tonight?

The Nurse-Ceci pairing continues to deliver results, with a 57 percent goal share and 56 percent expected goals (all of these numbers are five-on-five) in 366 minutes.

The Duncan Keith-Evan Bouchard duo had a tough night, I can see that tandem getting a rest. They are 11-11 goals in 262 minutes, expected goals 51.5 percent. Keith-Barrie has played less than 10 minutes (2-0 goals), Kulak-Bouchard less than seven minutes. Kris Russell?

I expect Mike Smith will start, he can move the puck to safety (although he is not a guarantee when passing).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Thursday, this is the last show of the week (we’re off tomorrow) but will be on the air Monday. We are at 1260, TSN, beginning at 10. TSN Insider Chris Johnston will tell us about the Vegas LTIR creativity, Edmonton’s path to the playoffs and the crazy and trying to figure out who will come out the the east. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will talk to us about Carter Savoie and we’ll chat about the quality of the 2022 NHL draft. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Tarkus
jp

That’s brutal. RIP.

rich tm

Very said. RIP.

Munny 2.0

Dear Gord.

jp

I think it’s safe to say that Evander Kane is better off for having this person out of his life.

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/evander-kanes-ex-wife-anna-kane-helps-pay-ryan-hartmans-fine-for-giving-him-middle-finger/amp/

Munny 2.0

Ten happy game thoughts (now that I’ve seen the whole damn thing)

  1. All the D looked pretty good. But notice the support they got tonight? And that was with Smith in net. Fs weren’t cheating high.
  2. In fact gaps by everyone were very good tonight, Fs and D, excellent pressure all over the ice. They had a tough time getting a forecheck going.
  3. Thought it was one of Kulak’s best games. But again, couple of nice plays by Barrie, Boosh had a couple of good chances plus made some deft passes in the neutral zone to spring guys. Ceci had some good stops. Nurse, the goal. Russell, the defining hit.
  4. They played a lot more physical tonight and against a team bigger than the Wild. What the hell? Need to be this way with more consistency. I know it’s tough… it’s a grind and hurts. But you have to when challenged by a Minny.
  5. Kassian +2 on penalties. I don’t feel like that happens very often, lol
  6. Smith had four or five very good saves on quality chances, but the one on Duchene was outright robbery.
  7. OP saying the Nurse goal looked like Nurse of yore, nailed it.
  8. Watching Drai standing in the OZone just inside the blue line, three goals under his belt… he had space, he could’ve taken it to the hashmarks, although he likely would’ve been well-checked when he got there, so he casually throws the puck into the corner. It’s stuff like this and Jay getting the high risk pass to the middle out of his game that are almost more impressive than the hattie.
  9. Foegele makes so many good things happen out there, shift after shift, that I don’t want to see him down on the 4th line again.
  10. Finally got to see the return of 7-11, I and others have called for, including LT. It’s the perfect way to set up the wagon train going through Death Valley, isn’t it? Let’s see more, least ’til we get the women and children through Colorada.
  11. Leo roared. What a fuckin hat trick.

Sorry, I had to turn it up to 11.

Oh yeah. One bitch. I’ve said this before but could people start heading for the friggin net when Hyman is driving the puck through the zone? When he does that it creates a centering pass opportunity, or if he goes around the net, centering or backside. So the best thing to do is follow in his vapour trail as he wrreaks havoc through the zone and give him outs to make plays.

Drai figured that out tonight, got a goal out of it, but they should all be doing this every damn time. Hyman is often forced to make the play on net himself—which is tough to do since he has everyone’s attention—or he has to hang on to it too long and the opportunity is wasted.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Quality post. Thank you.

Jaxon

I was saying back in February that they should trade for 1 of Connor Ingram (NSH) or Logan Thompson (VGK) before they break out. Well, it looks like it might be too late for acquiring Thompson on the cheap. He’s now 7-4-0 on the season with a .921 SV% and a big part of VGK’s late surge.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Skinner is our Thompson … play the man.

Jaxon

I’m not saying he isn’t, but they need more than one goalie, and I’d rather not waste anymore money on again goalies. It’s an endless and expensive cycle if you’re always chasing veteran goalies. SKinner isn’t guaranteed, neither is Thompson or Ingram, but it would be great to have 2 goalies who are possibly ready to breakout.

Tarkus

Summarizing!

Petrov vs. Tullio did not disappoint. First, Petrov picked up an aPPle. Then Tullio, perhaps laughing inly at a piddly assist, discovered his inner Blue Jay and batted home tally-o #40:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Oshawa_Generals/status/1514764687371513891

But then Petrov must have muttered under his breath, “Tullio! Do not be getting ahead of me so far in race for glorious but nonexistent Gretzky Cup!”, and drew within one of him once more with a rare (for him) empty-netter to seal a 4-1 win.

Tullio displayed even more shooting mentality, finishing with a game-high 5 SOG, while Petrov had 4.

jp

Only 2 regular season games left for each player in this hotly contested race. Who will prevail?!?

Jaxon

Playoffs are pretty much a given at this point so this exercise is getting less relevant, but to get to ‘Magic 97’ points, EDM would have to go just 2-4-1 down the stretch. Here’s what that might look like:

#76-VGK@EDM-T
#77-DAL@EDM-W
#78-COL@EDM-L
#79-EDM@CBJ-L
#80-EDM@PIT-L
#81-SJS@EDM-W
#82-VAN@EDM-L

That said, I could see them going 5-2-0 the rest of the way and getting to 102pts. Hosting VGK and COL will be their toughest games. But EDM has 5 home games and only 2 road games left and they are 4-0-1 at home since the trade deadline. Hell, they could run the board from here on. That would be a great way to finish. However, even if they go 7-0, they likely won’t catch anyone in front of them, 102 pts probably gets them 2nd in the Division and 5th in the conference while 106pts probably gets them the same 2nd & 5th. They likely won’t catch MIN or STL.

I still wouldn’t count out VGK, though. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league since the trade deadline and they are finally healthy and sneaking under the cap somehow. Eichel has started to turn it on and Pacioretty and Stone are back. If they do sneak in, then look out. They might even end up facing COL or CGY in the first round and eliminate them. If they finished 7-0 they’d have 101 pts. That would really shake things up.

Funnybird

Capoligests seem to be doing some wizardry in Vegas to make it all work for them. Hopefully the NHL’s doing there due diligence on them.

Admiral Ackbar

Vegas could also finish 2nd or 3rd in the division. LA is banged up…

Jaxon

But the schedule really favours LAK. They are playing all non-playoff teams from here on. I don’t VGK get to 2nd. if they go 7-0 to finish they only get to 101 pts. If Edmonton goes 5-2 they’ll get 102 pts.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I am predicting that Smith is the game 1 starter in the playoffs.

OriginalPouzar

He’s clearly the “hotter tender” at this point. That could certainly flip in the next 2-3 weeks but that’s where the smart money likely is.

jp

Yeah, agree that’s how things are looking at the moment (and could change).

Whole season:
Smith .907 SV%
Koskinen .902 SV%
Huh, Smith has climbed all the way to ‘actually respectable’.

Woodcroft era (since Feb 10th):
Smith .916 SV%
Koskinen .905 SV%

Since Mar 1st:
Smith .925 SV%
Koskinen .904 SV%

Since Mar 15th:
Smith .932 SV%
Koskinen .884 SV%

Since Apr 1st:
Smith .945 SV% (5 starts)
Koskinen .895 SV% (2 starts)

Funnybird

Unfortunately I missed this game but have to trust it was a good one. Do we start cheering for the Kings now?

KassHat

Boylen’s article on SN about Gaudreau’s next contract is a bit of wishful thinking. 8.5 to 9 he has him pegged as getting. I think hes off by 1.5.

jp

Yeah that sounds like more hope than reality.

Funnybird

Agreed, it has to Panarin money as a starting point. I hate to be a fan of the team that signs him though, I would have bet on 55 points in 70 games before 110 points in 80 games going into this year.

Last edited 2 years ago by Funnybird
Reja

Why would you bet against a contract year.

Elgin R

Sorry my bad – the single wide doesn’t have a basement.

JimmyV1965

Very impressive bounceback win. Full marks for the win. Weird how much better the team was tonight. I think Nashville’s defence wasn’t as good transitioning the puck, giving us more time in the ozone. Smith helped in the dzone for sure, but I don’t think Nashville was as aggressive or fast on the forecheck as Minnesota. 

rich tm

Yes – and it was the result of 2 things. Smith’s puckhandling and the forwards coming back and being in a better position to support the breakout.

Admiral Ackbar

Man, that’s a big win….! Smith really held his ground tonight. I don’t sing his praise often…

who

Solid game for the most part, and Smith made the saves when he had to.
Russell looked good in his return. Great hit on his first shift. And no, it didn’t cause an odd man rush. JP was back. He just got walked by Duschene at the Oilers blue line.

OriginalPouzar

Never said “odd man” rush against. It caused a rush against with a forward and a scoring chance ensued.

Redbird62

Everybody but you liked the hit, including Woodcroft. You claimed it was a bad decision because a scoring chance resulted but as long as a forward is back covering for him and it doesn’t create an odd man rush it’s not a high risk play. It’s not Russell’s fault if a two on two or three on three turns into the forward getting beat badly.

Last edited 2 years ago by Redbird62
Reja

Vegas running on all cylinders I can see a dirty 3rd coming up.

Prairie_Sentinel

Very dirty – Kolesar not answering the bell for the high hit on Tanev has the Flames chasing him around.

Admiral Ackbar

I rarely hope for injuries…

jp

I’m gonna add the LAK game to the Oilers tough stretch (sorry LT) which was projected at 2-5-0.

The Oilers are currently 2-1-1, so they’ve already covered reasonable expectations with 3 games to go.

Reja

Woody do not play Mikko until we secure 2nd place are he’s needed in a mop up roll.

jp

That was a really nice game. Oilers just did to the Predators what the Wild did to the Oilers.

I thought they did a great job of limiting chances against through 2. Then Smith was solid when he needed to be in the 3rd (called back goal notwithstanding).

Important 2 points as well!

Prairie_Sentinel

Vegas up 5-1 now *spits*

Side

The transition by Sportsnet had perfect timing.

OriginalPouzar

Pffft, flames, good for nothing – terrible tending.

Ranford.85

Markstrom pulled for the second game in a row.

Genjutsu

Collapsing just in time for the postseason.

Munny 2.0

Second oldest goalie is a hilarious stat.

fishman

Very strong game by the Oilers tonight. Solid performances all through the line up. Smith great tonight. I like this version of the Oilers much better than last game!

OriginalPouzar

Solid, solid night for Mike Smith – only the one weak goal against which I’m sure he would tell us he only let in because he knew it would be called back…….

Side

I would love to see a goalie stand up and take a drink from his bottle if he saw it was offside and either waited for the play to exit the zone or wait for it to go into the net so it could be called back.

OriginalPouzar

Now THAT would be brazen……

OriginalPouzar

Tyson Barrie, continuing to be very very good tonight.

He’s my 4th start of the game.

OriginalPouzar

So, Leon with 20G and 3A in his last 9 games against the Preds (thank you to JP for his post)…… learn to pass selfish lazy Leon!

Offside

He also needs to play with MOAR grit!

jp

You’re welcome. Just a note that the numbers were including tonight.

OriginalPouzar

Oh, well, than changes it, but only a tiny bit.

I think you posted that before the 3rd goal though, right?

jp

I *think* it was after, not 100% sure. Just don’t want you spreading misinformation!

OriginalPouzar

Thank you.

KnightRain

Smith is solid tonight! He’s peaking at the right time!

jp

Predators crew showing a graphic:

Last 8 games vs. the Predators
Draisaitl 17G-3A-20PTS
McDavid 3G-13A-16PTS

I also noticed earlier today (but didn’t post for fear of jinx) that the Oilers are 2-0 vs the Preds this season (before tonight) and were 3-0 in 19-20 as well. Looks like they’ll move to 6-0 vs. Nashville under Holland shortly.

Side

Is Edmonton to Nashville what Minnesota is to Edmonton?

I wonder after tonight’s loss to the Oilers if Nashville fans will start saying how doomed their team will be in the playoffs.

Offside

I thought we only did that

Side

I would confirm if I knew what the popular fansite was for Nashville. Do they even have one? Neverwonacup.com? Something like that?

Material Elvis

Every time I go to that website, it redirects me to the Vancouver Canucks website….

Jethro Tull

Just like to point out to the Preds crew, that while I have enjoyed your work this evening, two goals called back for offside isn’t ‘unlucky’.

Munny 2.0

Good work avoiding the jinx. It is appreciated.

OriginalPouzar

Vegas now up 4-1 on the flames.

There was little doubt the flames were going to crap the bed tonight. LAK – take note.

Offside

Even more reason to hate the flames. What number are we up to now?

Jethro Tull

Soft call.

KnightRain

No call for the knee to Mike’s head?

KnightRain

Replay says I’m seeing things…lol

flyfish1168

Leon MVP Draisaitl

Paulie

Smith looking more fluid out there tonight too. Encouraging.

Ranford.85

As soon as I said “F*ck the hatty, just get a goal”

Paulie

This sumner 29 should work with 13 every day on shooting

Jethro Tull

And the hats rain down. Sorry, hat. Singular.

Prairie_Sentinel

Don’t worry, it’s coming Auston

jp

Hatty Draisaitl!!

Wow, 7 goals by him in his last to games in Nashville.

KnightRain

BOOM!!! Drai loves the preds!!! What a shot!!!

Material Elvis

Or as he refers to them…the Prey.

Kurri17

HATRICK Draisaitl!

fishman

Haha!!!! Hatty for Drai!!!!!!!!

OriginalPouzar

Was there any doubt on the hatty?

Jethro Tull

A. Carrier? First name Aircraft?

KnightRain

Kass with another drawn penalty by working hard. Show him this game every game day.

fishman

Nice to see. There haven’t been very many games this year where Kassian has impacted the game. Sure like to see it more often.

Jethro Tull

Icing? The Preds guy gave up!

jp

That sure was tricky by Ryan.

OriginalPouzar

Vegas takes a 2-1 lead on Calgary getting close to half way through the 2nd period.

KnightRain

Preds are selling out and cheating to try to score. We’re gonna get some odd man rushes. We need to put em out of their misery!

fishman

A hatty for Drai would be nice!

Paulie

13 goal be nice too!

Paulie

You called it!!

KnightRain

Good call!

KnightRain

Sweet. I wasn’t worried. I kinda wanted to see them start pushing back. They’ve been sitting back a bit and that’s not a recipe for playoff success…

DevilsLettuce

Woody is wild

Prairie_Sentinel

If this gets overturned, does JP get credit for a great backcheck?

OriginalPouzar

Louie already gave him props….

Prairie_Sentinel

Missed that, my bad

OriginalPouzar

No, no – no “bad” – just letting you know that, yup, some props were provided.

Prairie_Sentinel

Props were earned in JP’s case. Man I love watching the Bison King play hockey

jp

Thought that was offside.

Poor goal on Smith if it counts, but he’s been very good aside from that.