The Edmonton Oilers won Game 3, won the five-on-five shot share (52 percent), the five-on-five goal share (4-1), and enjoyed 11 of 21 HDSC at five-on-five in the game. That’s miles from the first two games, so far away the Flames still have the series edge in shots (56 percent) by some margin. Edmonton has the goal advantage (12-10) through three games, and if the team can reprise the Sunday game tonight, we might be talking about the Oilers taking a stranglehold on the series. The numbers say give Calgary the respect earned, so we shall, while allowing just a sliver of sunshine for those who dare to dream.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers future relies on quality coaching replacement in Bakersfield
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl assists on all four Oilers goals in win over Flames
- Lowetide: Has Oilers goalie Mike Smith earned the net in 2022-23?
- DNB: This is how Connor McDavid wins: ‘He’s like a shark circling the waters’
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ emerging NHL Draft selection destination
- DNB: Oilers’ biggest worry after Game 1? Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl’s health
- DNB and Hailey Salvian: Flames beat the Oilers in a wild, high-scoring Game 1
- Lowetide: What should Oilers do on right wing this summer?
- DNB and Hailey Salvian: Flames vs. Oilers: Key matchups, injury updates and storylines
- Lowetide: Inside Oilers’ stats from wild first-round series win over Kings
- Lowetide: Oilers defence prospects, who’s staying and who’s going?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway’s future fit on depth chart?
- Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Oilers could not see chaos ahead
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers’ options for 2022 NHL Draft
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
- Lowetide: Oilers regular season report card for 2021-22
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
OILERS LINES AND PAIRINGS FOR TONIGHT
- Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane have played just 28 minutes five-on-five, and are 7-0 goals. I believe we’ll see them again tonight.
- Nuge, Zach Hyman and Jesse Puljujarvi have played just 18:45 at five-on-five, but are 14-11 shots and 1-1 goals. We could see a tweak, but I like the line and the trio had a good shot (and Fenwick) share in Game 3.
- The kid line of Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele and Kailer Yamamoto have played 11 minutes together, no goals but a 6-5 edge in shots five-on-five. This line grew out of some pretty nice chem when McLeod and Foegele are on the ice, and perhaps they’ll play another game together tonight.
- Derek Ryan, Josh Archibald and Zack Kassian are 0-1 goals in just eight minutes and are 3-6 shots. This line used to have Nuge on it (Ryan, Archibald) and was 1-1 goals in 50 minutes, but had poor shot differentials.
- Dylan Holloway got a pre-game skate the other night, but coaches rarely shuffle a lineup after a win. Derick Brassard hasn’t done much to my eye, Holloway is a candidate along with several other black aces on the current roster.
- Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci have played 127 minutes together at five-on-five, with a 12-9 advantage in goals but a 44 percent shot share. Regression is beyond the blue horizon. There’s also the matter of Ceci’s hand injury, something to watch for tonight.
- Duncan Keith and Evan Bouchard have 130 minutes, and are 6-8 goals five-on-five. The duo is 51 percent shots and have shown well in this series (4-3 goals and 53 percent shots five-on-five) against Calgary.
- Brett Kulak and Tyson Barrie are turning heads in the postseason. The pairing has 32 minutes in this series, 4-1 goals, and 5-2 in 98 minutes five-on-five during the entire playoff spring. This duo is seeing more work lately, on merit.
TONIGHT
The Flames are not currently sitting in a spot that reflects the team’s expectations, and that means a desperate 20 on the ice in red and white this evening at Rogers. I think the late hit by Milan Lucic on Sunday night could be a harbinger for tonight’s game.
I believe the Flames do have formidable talent, and could suppress the top line by running Backlund line and a rotation of Hanifan-Andersson and Kylington-Tanev. It’s also likely Sutter believes his team needs to be more physical, because why would he employ Milan Lucic, Nikita Zadorov and Brett Ritchie and not use them?
Intimidation is an effective tool in sports, from the brush-back pitch to running the goalie. I expect at least one incident, probably early, as Calgary makes the big attempt to turn the tide.
Add to that the fact Calgary is a much better even strength team than their goal differential (11-13) in this series indicates (55.7 percent of the EV shots), we know regression is lurking and the possession arrow is in the Flames’ favour.
Countering those things, the Oilers have a No. 1 line that can outscore mistakes, Mike Smith has made like Cher and turned back time, and the feel of the series is right for this kind of result. I picked the Oilers in 7, but the people who make wagers for a living had the Calgarians winning this series.
Bottom line: A win tonight would put the Flames on the verge of elimination many miles before the season would be considered a success. Darryl Sutter has no desire to head back to the farm this early in the postseason. Expect a focused, belligerent, nasty and dangerous Flames team to join the series this evening. If you were upset by the targeting of Smith, Draisaitl, McDavid and others in Game 3, hold on to your hat.
It will be a supreme test for Jay Woodcroft and the team he has believing in the process. It has been a fantastic series already, I expect this evening to go full Spinal Tap and reach “11” on the amp tonight.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We kickstart a short week at 10, TSN1260, with a preview of Oilers-Flames tonight and Canada-France in the WHC’s. Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Oilers Nation joins us, and we’ll go deep on the CFL labor situation that is fluid at this time. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. This is a big damned day for Oilers fans, TSN1260 has you covered all day and tonight.
Work starts today at 8:30am out here in the eastern time zone, so here’s to Nuge ensuring I start my day with some reasonable rest. Wake up at 3-1, Oilers one win away from top 4 in a 32 team league. That’s elite!
Yamamoto with Nuge and Hyman: not sure if it sticks, but damn that’s a likeable line.
Yeah, eastern time zone sucks but at least these are not 10:30pm starts! Those are killer!
Your Tuesday Late Nite Game Report:
Let’s deal with the obvious first: the bad goal. Awful goal to be sure, more because of the timing than anything. Thing is, I knew it was screened before I saw it, because I was in the car and heard it on Calgary radio when it was scored, and that’s exactly how they described it. So finally seeing the game, when the play happened, I was watching for it. The Oiler Dman crossing the blue line clearly skates down the path of the puck, then angles to the inside, revealing the flying puck like a discovered check. The Dman had been turning when Andersson fired it at the net, so I’m not sure if he saw it either.
If that goal had led to an Oiler loss, it would be talked about for decades like Smith goal has been. Whatever the circumstances. But it didn’t and now it’s just a footnote and blooper reel filler. Shit happens to goalies in the playoffs. Watching Vassy in the TO series, I wasn’t sure he could take the Bolts the distance. Now he looks Gord-like again. Mental toughness is key to the position. How mentally tough is our goalie? And that’s something that gets better with age. As does the desire for a Cup.
If we call the two gaffe goals a wash, Smith easily wins the duel tonight. and that’s the most important thing.
Nuge’s two goals were quality, both miss-able, but he got it done. That’s clutch and great to see. But maybe the best of his play came in his own end. Corskis were 10-28 with him on the ice and that matches the eye test which saw them hemmed in multiple times in their own end. Once for two full minutes, the equivalent of three shifts.
10-28. And yet Nuge’s SF-SA were 9-5! That almost seems impossible. Even Pujo was 6-4. They may have been hemmed in but they kept everything to the outside, and what they didn’t, they blocked. They blocked like maniacs when they couldn’t get it out. Nuge led the team with 4 blocks. FF-FA while he was on the ice was 9-14.
They bent but did not break, did not allow a goal against, persevered and survived to score the winner.
That Corsi strategy, similar to TMac’s, seemed to be a real focus for Sutter tonight. Of their 14 first period shots that made it to the net, seven were from defencemen. Produced zippo. Look at the heat maps and the Flames barely have any blue colour in front of the net and we have a big huge red splotch right on their doorstep. Their left point is their hottest spot. Probably not the best game plan.
Barrie has been worth every penny of his salary this year. It’s almost friggin tragic that he needs to go in the off-season. I like what he’s doing to his trade value though. My dream is that if the Oilers give Keith another Stanley he retires (after being threatened with a trade) and we keep Barrie.
All that and i haven’t mentioned the biggest story (other than the win)—Draisaitl setting the record for the most three point games in a row. Lol, he just can’t let McDavid do anything by himself, huh? Including besting guys like Gretzky. And Sutter and the media are all McDavid this and McDavid that and meanwhile One-leg is out-scoring Gord-legs by two points in the series.
And speaking of one-legs, Nurse is definitely back. I read the comments in time with the game as I watch, so I see others have seen the same. Final kicker for me was almost halfway through the third period, Nurse seized the puck behind the net and started out the near side with a Flame in hot pursuit. Nurse laid down four powerful strides and was gone.
Shit, I better crash…
Spector has it right. Tonight was an opportunity to lose.
Look at the Flames and how many times they shot themselves in the foot tonight. Despite playing better, they found a way to lose the game, and were finding ways right from puck drop.
We used to do that. And tonight we had every opportunity to repeat Dark December.
But we’re not that team any more.
Barrie definitely went from who do we dump him on to how can we keep him. He’s been very good
For those following along at home, RNH has 10 points in 11 games.
Including four goals, all of which are at 5v5; if that’s your thing.
But will he ever get 50 points in the regular season? 🤣
More likely to do it in the playoffs
He might score 50 points this postseason.
He hit the net with every single shot attempt tonight (4). And without dusting it off too. Awesome. That’s what he needs to do. Outside of maybe Pujo, probably no one more better to get some shooting confidence.
Edit: Loved where he was standing on the second goal.
Not one word said about the slew-foot by Toffoli. Foegele is going to destroy him if he’s the train tracks.
Fun game – RNH stepped it up tonight. Both Smith and Markstrom had huge gaffes … bad juju for both goalies cancels out in the end. Flames did everything possible to contain McDavid tonight … still lost. 3-1 GoOilers!
I really liked how they played the first 10 minutes of the 3rd. Kept it simple, Flames had no forecheck and limited clean zone entries, Oilers were getting it in deep and sustaining pressure. If it were not for the fluke goal, I think they were doing a much better job of holding the lead, no?
I feel that we are all in debt to the hockey gods for this crazy MoFo win. If anybody knows how to thank them or what kind of sacrifices we need to make so that they don’t try to even things up next game, please speak up.
I feel the debt was paid real quick with that 3rd GA
If RNH can play 78 games next year, he’ll overtake Horcoff for 5th in regular season games played for the Oilers, behind Glenn, Mark, other Ryan, and Kevin.
Sutter with very suspect line choices in key times this game again. Lucic played 11min. Thank god he wasnt suspended. Sutter just refuses to shorten his bench.
— Jay Woodcroft, on the team’s playoff mantra.
The greatest beneficiaries of “that” goal on Smith are Kassian & Archibald.
No one is talking about their hellacious collision.
I am sure their collision, and the goal, will live in infamy through a couple gifs on calgarypuck for years to come
Woody talking about getting the right players on the ice at the right time is music to my ears.
That might be another subtle dig at Sutter. His line deployments was abysmal.
We’ve had a powerplay witch for an aeon, and now we have a bonafide coaching wizard.
We begged for his arrival annually, but a wizard is never late; he arrives precisely when he intends.
Not going to read too much into it, but Anderson from Calgary in the post game talking about how this was the best game they’d played in the series and still lost. This will not be an easy one for them to bounce back from.
Sutter effused how good a game they played as well. Unusual of him to talk that way. He looked a little shell shocked.
Did they play well though? Only 8 Grade A chances in the whole game…
I’ll happily take them thinking that’s their high bar.
Naturalstattrick has HDSC tied at 9.
After the big 2, I appreciate Nuge the most. When he was out this season due to injury, it was always noticeable. I’m not sure if I’m happier about the win or sweet baby Nuge starting and deciding this monumental playoff game. He has now cemented himself in the history of the BOA. May he retire an Oiler and set a new record of games played in Edm.
Ps… my heart can’t take another season of Smith.
I feel like Smith – Skinner as the tandem is written in stone if they win another playoff game.
I agree, though I think it’s already been decided.
Looks like Foggy is being credited with 6 hits on the evening, having a good bounce back.
Drew a big penalty in the first as his aggressive style goaded TT into that cheap shot clip.
That should be a suspension but it won’t even be a fine.
The C in Calgary is for choking.
The gods wanted OT. We saw the invisible shot. Thank god I my momma moved to Edmonton instead of Calgary. Wish I was there to enjoy it.
Thankfully the Gords didn’t agree with the Gods.
Got home from work just to see CGY *spits* tie it up with that wacko goal.
Now watching from the beginning. Smith stood against a number of HDSC that could’ve radically altered the complexion of the match.
Smith. You (We) have no option but to hope he’ll battle through and be there when he needs to be. I was too young to objectively assess Fuhr back when he owned the cage (best ever! all time!), but if I had been objective, I might have recognized the sometimes up-down nature of his play. As it was I just always thought we’d win 🙂
Nugey must be pumped. He just swore when commenting on Yamamoto, saying “He did what he does best… doesn’t matter the size of the other guy is… he goes in and works his ass off, (pause) his butt off to win that battle” in his reply to Matty.
The smirk from Mike was priceless.
Maybe just one chocolate milk tonight.
Great win! I was nervous all game. I thought Nurse was absolutely terrible tonight, backed in and dropping down early. Smith was great and terrible tonight. Great game from Nuge as the top line wasn’t that good.
Tanev especially, but the team D for Calgary on Connor tonight was fantastic. Swarmed at all times. Normally opens people up like the Kane goal. Thank god we have a finisher for 97 as long as it lasts.
Leon looks like he maybe took a step back in his injury. I wonder why considering last game….
And yet, he quietly gets another 3 points. That is 13 points in the 4 games of the series. 3.25 pts per game, or 8.67 points per ankle (presuming 1.5 ankles)
I think it might be a new NHL playoff record with four consecutive games with at least three points.
More electrons for Johnny and Tkachuck tonight.
Nuge riding shotgun for Smith
Not a hot take but i look forward to the Nuge love in tomorrow’s post
McDavid may be about to add the greatest chapter of his lore book and somehow Leon is only 3 points behind him.
Ken Holland does talk alot about record books and the literature seems to be piling up at the moment.
To paraphrase Elwood Blues, “this series has got everything!”
Everything Sutter said was pretty honest.
Good game tonight! Oilers overcame the Flames, who are a very good hockey team and were playing desperate, also some score/ref effects, also Bad Mike Smith made a brief cameo just to remind us we’re never safe, but we still got the win. Carried the balance of play consistently until we conceded the PP goal, showed poise and confidence as a team after Smith was caught daydreaming. Smith did have a good game to my eye, that bad moment was very bad but it came against the flow of a good game. That is going to live forever in highlight reel infamy.
This is in no way a criticism of Jeese but more a praise of Jay W who put Yamamoto up on the 2nd line for a shift in the third and Kailer was a HUGE part of the winning goal.
Jesse made a few decent defensive plays but his primary offensive play is rimming it around the boards to the left defenseman. I’m not sure how he gets back to making plays in the offensive zone but he needs to find a way.
PJ desperately needs a summer skills camp. Like he’s so close, he *should* be a threat in the O zone. Maybe a couple months with Oates? With Jari n Tik to translate and demo?
Tactical coaching. Who knew?
It’s ok to criticize Jesse, he’s playing poorly.
He’s got a muffin shot. Gets it on net a lot but it’s got no zip or accuracy. He needs to get a shooting coach this summer.
Flames 0-9 all time when trailing a series 3-1. That’s interesting.
Dice have no memory (etc.)
Sad Kelly Hrudey is my favourite Kelly Hrudey. His Flames one game away from an early exit from these playoffs.
I’m sad we can’t eliminate his Kings again!
Enjoyed watching Francis squirm between Gene and Spec post game!
Hrudey trying to plant the seed on Smith. Smith must of told him off when he was in Calgary.
What a win. After Markstrom robbed Nuge on his last chance to score the hat trick, the camera went to him on the bench. He had a fire in his eyes that I’d never seen before. I think he might have even swore. This man is an Oiler legend in the making. He’s probably already there
Great shot choice by Barrie on the winner. Underrated read that he’s made a couple times this playoff already.
Hopefully they can use the next game to take it up a notch
To not be able to use the game ending PP to take control back isn’t a great look
The gave up the chances until Sutter pulled
Yeah, it’s as disappointing as not being able to use the late 5 minute major last game to rub salt in their wounds.
I can’t believe Nurse gave up the blue line to Backland Smith with a great save.
They recovered from one of the worst goals against in NHL playoff history. hopefully a good sign? not for my blood pressure next round. Anything is possible with Smith in net.
ANOTHER five spot against Markstrom.
well, 4 + 1 ENG
He wasn’t in the net for the first one either.
Lol
Lol, I’m sure he’d like them to call
the first goal an EN because maybe his save percentage would increase to .875, more in line with the last 2 games 😉
Nothing like losing after a comeback to crush those Flame spirits. Trust us, we know!
Thank you Oilers for…..knocking me out of the Playoff Death March.
Happy to be wrong
I sincerely hope we can see Nuge lift the cup as an Oiler.
he’ll have to bulk up 😉
No doubt Connor will hand the cup to Nuge first: Connor to Nuge to Drai to Nurse to Russell.
I think Smith would be in there early too.
Ya, probably Smith then Rusty, to be honest.
I don’t care that the Oilers had a 3 goal lead and “gave it up”.
I don’t care that Smith let in an all-time terrible goal at a horrible time.
The Oilers ended up finding a way to win and neither of those things will matter on Thursday.
The team will be ready and Smith will be ready!
Oh I care. It’s almost better that they blew the lead on some Smith comedy. The loss stings that much more.
Lucic on ice for GWG, I might add
Just win baby!
This.
If WEM is ever needing a new name for that big Galaxyland coaster, may I suggest, Mike Smith.
Huge good time
Very fitting that RNH, the longest serving Edmonton Oiler, (despite never hitting 50 points) was able to be the difference maker in this critical game! The Nuge is huge!
Very happy for the Nuge!
He’ll always be baby Nuge to me
sweet baby nuge!
Yamo the unsung hero he had a great game.
SMITH FLUB CLUB 1986-2022
Go Oilers! We’ll take it
la la la la la la Bamba!
This is my new favourite song!
Took a lot to unseat a Tracy Chapman song as my fave tune, I will say, but they did it.
‘poor Oilers gonna rise up, and take what’s theirs…’????
Flames got beat by one man tonight – Ryan Nugent Hopkins!
What’s the Chuck gonna saaay?
5 blocks for Nuge, 3 for JP
Stan Weir wishes he could grow Nuge’s playoff beard.
The ol reverse Stan Weir, love it.
93 is bagged…put it all out there tonight.